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The Only Fundamental Analysis Video You Will Ever Need... (Full Course: Beginner to Advanced)
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hey you're here because you're seeing stocks move up you're hearing it on Twitter or on TV or your friends are
嘿，你會來到這裡是因為你看到股票上漲，你在Twitter或電視上聽到消息，或是你的朋友們
00:05
talking about it and you want to make money with the right stocks and do your due diligence so you don't lose money
都在討論它，而你想用正確的股票賺錢，並做好盡職調查，這樣你才不會虧錢
00:12
and also be prepared to find Bargains when as you know the market will evitably sell off well the best way to
同時也要準備好在市場如你所知必然會拋售時尋找便宜貨，那麼最好的方法是
00:18
get into stocks is through fundamental analysis or understanding the financial strengths of a business now I myself
進入股市是透過基本面分析，或是了解一家企業的財務實力。現在我自己
00:25
have lost thousands and thousands of dollars from using what's called technical analysis or studying prices
曾經因為使用所謂的技術分析或研究價格而損失了成千上萬美元
00:31
that leads to trading and chasing price trends Warren Buffett has always said that the best way to make a lot of money
這會導致交易和追逐價格趨勢。華倫·巴菲特總是說，賺大錢最好的方法是
00:38
in stocks is just to buy a great business at a good price and the way to do that is with fundamental analysis and
在股市中，就是以好的價格買下一家偉大的企業，而做到這點的方法就是透過基本面分析，而且
00:45
so this is everything that I wish I knew before coming from 10 years of Wall Street Experience I was a research
這就是我在擁有10年華爾街經驗之前希望我能知道的一切。我曾是
00:52
analyst at Bank of Montreal an investment Bank in New York and my clients were funds like JP Morgan and
蒙特婁銀行（一家位於紐約的投資銀行）的研究分析師，我的客戶是像摩根大通和
00:58
Citadel and I was helping them pick stocks for their portfolios so in this video I'm packing everything you need to
橋水基金這樣的基金，我協助他們為其投資組合挑選股票。所以在這支影片中，我將包裝所有你需要
01:04
know about fundamental analysis to make a good investment decision we're talking financial statements screening companies
了解的基本面分析知識，以做出良好的投資決策。我們將討論財務報表、篩選公司、
01:12
valuation forecasting identifying opportunities and even options and last but most importantly the psychology of
估值、預測、識別機會，甚至期權，最後但也是最重要的，市場上的
01:20
buying and selling in the market so that you can identify good versus bad companies know what price to buy them at
買賣心理，這樣你就能區分好公司與壞公司，知道該以什麼價格買進它們，
01:28
and when to buy and sell them this will save you from making all the same mistakes that I've made from Trading and
以及何時買進和賣出。這將使你免於犯下我在交易中犯過的所有同樣錯誤，並
01:34
instead make good investment decisions with fundamental analysis and become a better investor does that sound good so
轉而利用基本面分析做出良好的投資決策，成為更好的投資者。聽起來不錯吧？那麼
01:41
here's a list of everything that you'll learn and let's Jump Right In okay so now the psychology of price and earning
這裡列出您將學到的所有內容，我們馬上開始吧。好的，那麼現在來談談價格與收益的心理學
01:48
so fundamental analysis is all about the study of businesses to understand their value is about the business and its
所以基本面分析完全是關於研究企業以了解其價值，它是關於企業及其
01:55
earnings so earnings is just how much money the business makes after paying all its costs
收益。那麼收益就是企業在支付所有成本後賺了多少錢
02:00
and when we buy a share of a stock we're buying a share of the business so the earnings per share is the value that we
當我們買進一股股票時，我們就是在買進企業的一部分，所以每股收益就是我們
02:08
get as investors so here I'm pulling up a chart and this is from kin it's an online tool that I like to use I've
作為投資者所獲得的價值。那麼這裡我拉出一張圖表，這是來自 Kin 的，這是我喜歡使用的線上工具，我
02:14
pulled up the earnings per share and the price per share now if you can when you're using software like this is to
拉出了每股收益和每股價格。現在，如果您在使用這類軟體時可以的話，要
02:21
use the next 12 months earnings per share estimate or NTM for short and this is what I have up here and the reason
使用未來12個月的每股收益預估，或簡稱 NTM，這就是我現在顯示的內容，原因
02:29
why is because markets tend to look ahead so the earnings estimate will actually give you a clearer sense of how
是因為市場往往會向前看，所以收益預估實際上會讓您更清楚地了解
02:36
prices are moving with earnings but if not historical earnings per share is fine so here we have a chart of apple
價格如何隨收益變動，但如果不行，歷史每股收益也可以。那麼這裡我們有一張蘋果的圖表
02:43
and the black line over here is the uh earnings per share and then the green line over here is the price per share of
這裡的黑線是每股收益，然後這裡的綠線是該企業的每股價格
02:50
the business so what do you notice the price follows the earnings per share so price follows earnings as a lot of
那麼您注意到什麼？價格跟隨著每股收益，所以價格跟隨著收益，正如許多
02:56
investors say now here we have Nvidia it's a little bit more volatile you see that the earnings are more cyclical you
投資者所說的。現在我們來看 Nvidia，它波動性稍微大一點，您看到收益更具週期性，您
03:02
got these Peaks and trops but overall it still follows uh the earnings now here we have Tesla so it's obviously a lot
看到這些高峰和低谷，但總體來說它仍然跟隨著收益。現在我們來看 Tesla，它顯然
03:11
more volatile we see these big changes in earnings and much bigger changes in price so there's also big divergences
波動性大得多，我們看到收益的巨大變化以及價格更大的變化，所以也存在著巨大的
03:18
between price and earnings per share now fundamental analysis is all about understanding the black line so the
價格與每股收益之間的分歧。現在基本面分析完全是關於理解黑線，也就是
03:24
business's earnings and then using that to Value the price per share so that's the green line over here when we can do
企業的獲利，並用它來評估每股價格，所以這是這裡的綠線，當我們能有效
03:31
those things effectively we can figure out what stocks to buy and sell and at what price and when to buy them so
做到這些事，我們就能弄清楚該買賣哪些股票、以什麼價格、以及何時買進，所以
03:38
instead of buying a business when it's on decline we want to buy it when it's improving so like right right over here
與其在企業衰退時買進，我們想在它改善時買進，就像就在這裡
03:45
and instead of buying Peak prices over here we probably want to buy them when they're at better value maybe over here
而與其在這裡買在峰價，我們可能想在它們更具價值時買進，也許在這裡
03:52
or around here and so what most people do when they skip fundamental analysis is the following it's what I like to
或大約這裡。因此，大多數人跳過基本面分析時會做以下的事，這就是我喜歡
03:59
call the face and prey strategy they they follow markets really obsessively they'll start chasing price trends or
稱之為「面壁祈禱策略」。他們非常著迷地追隨市場，他們會開始追逐價格趨勢或
04:05
popular stocks and then ultimately buy them at Peaks and inevitably as you know price comes down and then they hold it
熱門股票，然後最終在高點買進，而不可避免地，如你所知，價格下跌，然後他們就抱著它
04:13
just praying it will recover because at the end of the day they don't really know what they bought so what's actually
只是祈禱它會回升，因為歸根究底，他們並不知道自己買了什麼。所以實際上
04:18
happening here is that's a momentum strategy you're just buying prices that go up and so what happens if you just
這裡發生的是，這是一種動能策略，你只是在買上漲的價格。那麼如果你只是
04:25
keep doing that as a strategy you get one or two years of gains and then usually get about two to three years of
持續這樣做作為一種策略會發生什麼事？你會有一到兩年的獲利，然後通常會經歷大約兩到三年的
04:31
pain because those expensive stocks ultimately will revalue and if you try to hold on that
痛苦，因為那些昂貴的股票最終會被重新估值，如果你試圖抱著它
04:38
actually doesn't make it work because the strategy if you actually just keep selling losers and keep rotating to the
其實並不能讓它奏效，因為這個策略，如果你真的持續賣掉輸家並持續轉向
04:44
prices that are going up you this is the how the strategy would actually perform if you were to do what most people do
上漲的價格，這就是如果你做大多數人會做的事時，這個策略實際的表現
04:49
and just pray and and hold on to the losers what your portfolio is going to do is just go down like this so the
只是祈禱並抱著輸家，你的投資組合將會像這樣一路下跌。所以
04:56
fundamental strategy kind of flips it on its head what we our focus on doing is buying good businesses that grow
基本面策略可以說是反轉了這一點。我們的重點是買進獲利成長的優質企業
05:02
earnings we're going to Value those businesses so that we get it at a good price and then ultimately we let the
獲利。我們將對這些企業進行估值，以便以好的價格買入，最終我們讓
05:08
market work for us you let the price work for you so what that looks like is we're first buying shares that are
市場為我們效力，讓價格為你所用。所以具體做法是，我們首先買進
05:14
growing earnings so like at a point like here we're going to Value the shares so we don't buy it at Peaks like over here
獲利成長的股票。例如在像這樣的點位，我們會對股票進行估值，這樣我們就不會在像這裡的高點買入
05:21
and ultimately as we follow with the business and understand its valuation we want to get it at a good price like over
最終，隨著我們持續關注這家企業並了解其估值，我們希望能在像這裡這樣的低點以好價格買入
05:27
here so when we do this the Market just works for us the price goes up as a business makes money and grows in value
這裡。當我們這樣做時，市場就會為我們效力，隨著企業賺錢並創造價值，股價就會上漲
05:35
now what you don't need and this is addressing some popular misconception you definitely don't need to be day
現在，你不需要做的是——這是在回應一些普遍的誤解——你絕對不需要當個
05:40
trading 90% of trading is algorithmic trading computers just do that type of strategy better you don't need to be an
當日沖交易者。90% 的交易都是程式交易，電腦做這類策略更好。你不需要是個
05:48
accountant I myself started with a Philosophy degree you just need to know the essentials and you don't need
會計師。我自己是從哲學系開始的。你只需要了解基本要點，而且你不需要
05:53
Insider information that's highly illegal especially in the US markets you will go to jail and finally fin you
內線消息。那是高度非法的，尤其是在美國市場。你會進監獄。最後，你
05:59
don't need a lot of money it really comes down to good thinking I've seen myself that you don't actually get much
不需要很多錢。這真的歸結於良好的思維。我自己見過，實際上你並不會得到太多
06:04
Advantage at all it's technically a disadvantages when you have a ton of money to
優勢。當你有一大筆錢要
06:11
invest so if fundamental analysis is all about the business's earnings then the foundation is the financial statements
投資時，從技術上講反而是個劣勢。所以，如果基本面分析全是關於企業的獲利，那麼基礎就是財務報表
06:16
and there are three key things that you must understand with financial statements that make you money as an
而你必須了解財務報表中的三個關鍵要素，這些要素能讓你身為
06:22
investor of the business the first is the growth of its earnings second is the margins so the efficiency of the
企業投資者賺錢。第一是其獲利的增長，第二是利潤率，也就是企業的
06:29
business and third is the returns so the Returns on invested Capital you're going to see exactly why all those things work
效率，第三是回報，也就是投資資本回報率。你將會看到為什麼所有這些要素會共同
06:35
together when we actually build up a financial statement here's a lesson of why this is important so back in around
當我們實際建立財務報表時，這就是為什麼這件事重要的教訓，所以大約在
06:41
2017 I bought this dumb stock and I probably lost over $110,000 buying it it was right Aid and the reason is I didn't
2017年我買了這支蠢股，買它可能讓我虧了超過十一萬美元，它是Right Aid，原因是我不
06:49
bother reading the financial statements and I just bought it because a hedge fund was buying and the stock just
去讀財務報表，我只是因為一間避險基金在買就買了，而那支股票就
06:54
obviously went down like this if I had looked at the financial statements ahead of time knowing what I know now and this
明顯地像這樣下跌，如果我當時有先看財務報表，以我現在所知的來看，而這
06:59
is r a's financial statements I could have seen the warning signs so by the end of this as well you'll be able to
是Right Aid的財務報表，我本來可以看到警訊，所以到這堂課結束時，你也將能夠
07:06
see the exact warning signs so that you can avoid mistakes like this but first we got to understand what those numbers
看到確切的警訊，讓你能避開像這樣的錯誤，但首先我們得先了解這些數字
07:13
actually mean and don't worry this is not going to be a long list of boring metrics what we're going to do is
到底代表什麼意思，別擔心，這不會是一長串無聊的指標，我們要做的是
07:19
Imagine we're building up a coffee shop together so you're going to we're going to build up the numbers of a coffee shop
想像我們一起開一家咖啡店，所以我們將從頭開始建立一家咖啡店的數字
07:25
from the bottoms up as if we started the business together and so then you know exact ly what these Financial numbers
就好像我們一起創立這門生意一樣，這樣你就會確切知道這些財務數字
07:30
are how they're linked together and we're going to analyze them so that you can see exactly what makes you money as
是什麼，它們如何連結在一起，我們將會分析它們，讓你能夠看清楚是什麼讓你賺錢，作
07:37
an investor the first thing when we start a business is we need to raise money we need to raise Capital so let's
為投資人，當我們開始一門生意時，第一件事是我們需要籌錢，我們需要籌集資本，所以讓我們
07:42
say we each put in $500 to start up the business say we each get 10 shares that works out to about a total of 10 shares
假設我們各投入500美元來創業，假設我們各得到10股，這大約總共是10股
07:51
at $100 each we put that in exchange for shares of the business so that's the stock and now that's considered Equity
每股100美元，我們投入資金以換取這門生意的股份，所以那就是股票，現在這被視為股權
07:58
because it's money in invested in the business now let's say we also go to the bank we want to get a loan we get a $100
因為這是投資在生意裡的錢，現在假設我們也去銀行，我們想貸款，我們貸了100美元
08:04
loan at a 10% interest rate from a bank now that would be considered debt on our balance sheet so that works out to a
利率10%的貸款，現在這在資產負債表上會被視為負債，所以這總共是
08:12
total of $100 in liabilities so that's something that the business owes and it's money to be paid back so the total
總負債為100美元，這是企業所欠的款項，需要償還，因此總
08:19
Capital here is 1,000 in equity plus 100 in liability so the total Capital invested is
這裡的資本是1,000美元的股權加上100美元的負債，所以總投入資本是
08:26
$1,100 now with this Capital we want to invest in assets for the business we want to get a a cash register we want to
1,100美元。現在，我們希望用這筆資本為企業投資資產，我們想要買一台收銀機，我們想要
08:33
get a shop store all the furniture Etc so let's uh put that all together and say we've invested 800 in property and
開一家店，添購所有家具等。所以，讓我們把這些都加起來，並假設我們在房地產和
08:40
Equipment now these are assets these are stuff that we own and we expect to make money from it and we also keep $300 in
設備上投資了800美元。這些是資產，是我們擁有的東西，我們期望從中賺錢，同時我們也保留300美元的
08:48
cash in the bank for the business just for day-to-day uh cash needs whether that's for payroll or for expenses so
現金在銀行裡，作為企業的日常現金需求，無論是用於支付薪資還是開銷，所以
08:54
our total assets comes up to 1,100 now you can see that we we have a total assets of $1,100 and that has been
我們的總資產達到1,100美元。現在你可以看到，我們的總資產為1,100美元，這筆資金來源是
09:04
funded by $100 in liabilities from debt and a th000 in equity so assets from a balance sheet perspective always have to
由100美元的債務負債和1,000美元的股權所資助。從資產負債表的角度來看，資產必須
09:12
be funded by either liabilities or equity and they always balance and that's why it's called a balance sheet
由負債或股權來資助，而且它們總是平衡的，這就是為什麼它被稱為資產負債表。
09:19
so now what that we're funded let's go into business now we want to start to think about the operating metrics for
既然我們現在已經籌到資金，讓我們開始營運吧。現在，我們要開始思考營運指標，以
09:25
our business and let's look at this for the first year let's say we sell cups with we we sold about 150 cups for the
及我們的業務。讓我們看看第一年的情況，假設我們賣杯子，我們在第一年大約賣了150個杯子，
09:31
year and we've sold them at a certain price of $5 a cup so when we multiply the cup sold times the price per cup
我們以每個5美元的特定價格出售。所以，當我們將售出的杯子數量乘以單價
09:41
that gets us to $750 in sales now we got to pay for the actual coffee so we have to pay for the beans we have to pay for
時，我們的銷售額達到750美元。現在，我們必須支付實際的咖啡費用，所以我們必須支付咖啡豆的費用，必須支付
09:50
the actual cups say that works out to about $3 in uh cost per cup now we multiply the cup sold by the cost per
實際杯子的費用，假設這大約是每個杯子3美元的成本。現在，我們將售出的杯子數量乘以每個
09:58
cup that gets us to What's called the cost of goods sold or the cogs for short now from the perspective of expenses
杯子的成本，這就得到了所謂的銷貨成本（COGS）。現在，從營運支出的角度來看，
10:05
operating expenses for the business we have staff and labor costs works out to about $100 uh in that first year our
營業的營運支出，我們有員工和勞工成本，第一年大約是100美元
10:13
equipment has worn down a little bit Let's uh quantify that as about $80 in depreciation works out to about 10% of
設備有些磨損，讓我們將其量化為大約80美元的折舊，約占資產價值的10%
10:21
the asset value and so then that total of labor cost plus the depreciation or the wear and tear of our equipment gets
資產價值，因此勞工成本加上折舊或設備磨損的總和，讓我們得到
10:28
us to Total operating expenses of about 180 and so this is the basis for our business performance now we can take
總營運支出約為180美元，這就是我們營運表現的基礎，現在我們可以將
10:35
that operating metric and start to see it in the income statement and this will show us how much earnings the business
該營運指標放入損益表中，這將顯示該業務的獲利有多少
10:42
makes so we have our total sales that goes into the revenues for the business for the first year
獲利，因此我們第一年的總銷售額成為業務的營收
10:48
$750 we have our cost of good souls or cogs gets to $450 so when we take the revenues minus the cost of good soul
750美元，我們的銷貨成本或COGS為450美元，因此當我們從營收中減去銷貨成本
10:56
that gets us to our gross profit so that's The Profit that our business is making before operating expenses you can
就得到我們的毛利，也就是在支付營運支出前，我們業務的獲利，你可以將其視為
11:03
think of it as a profit on the product before paying expenses for the business now from an operating perspective we
在支付業務支出前，產品的獲利，現在從營運的角度來看，我們
11:11
have operating expenses we have depreciation the wear and tear of our equipment we also have the labor of
有營運支出，我們有折舊，也就是設備的磨損，我們還有勞工成本
11:18
course uh those things sum together gets us to uh a total operating expense of 180 when we take the gross profit minus
當然，這些東西加總起來讓我們得到總營運支出180美元，當我們從毛利中減去
11:26
the operating cost that gets us to our earnings before interest in taxes so that's ebit for short of
營運成本，就得到我們的稅前息前利潤，簡稱EBIT，為
11:32
$120 now of course we also have our interest expense remember we got a $100 loan we're paying 10% so it's $10 in
120美元，當然我們還有利息支出，記得我們有一筆100美元的貸款，利率10%，所以是10美元的
11:41
interest that gets us to our pre-tax income of 110 and then we also pay taxes let's say
利息，這讓我們的稅前所得為110美元，然後我們還要繳稅，假設
11:47
we pay a 20% tax rate on that pre-tax income works out to about $22 in tax and then that leaves us with $88 in net
我們對該稅前所得支付20%的稅率，大約是22美元的稅，然後這讓我們剩下88美元的淨利
11:57
income that's the earnings of the business and when we take into account the shares
的收入，這是企業的獲利，當我們考慮到股份
12:01
of the business that works out to 8.8 in earnings per share now this is the most important number because that earnings
的部分，每股盈餘為8.8美元，這是最關鍵的數字，因為這筆獲利
12:10
belongs to us as shareholders that's the money the business has made which will increase its value all right now let's
屬於我們股東，這是企業賺取的錢，將會增加其價值，好的，現在讓我們
12:17
look at from a a cash flow perspective so this is a cash flow statement it can tell us uh from a cash perspective how
從現金流量的角度來看，這是一份現金流量表，它能告訴我們從現金的角度來看，錢是
12:23
the money is moving around starting off with the cash from uh operations we have our earnings so we've made $88 in net
如何流動的，從營業活動的現金開始，我們有我們的獲利，也就是我們賺了88美元的淨
12:31
income uh we have our depreciation of $80 so that's just a non-cash expense right because it's the wear and tear of
利潤，我們有80美元的折舊，這只是一項非現金支出，對吧？因為它是
12:38
equipment so we add that back and that gets us to the actual cash produced by the business the cash from operations is
設備的磨損，所以我們把它加回來，這就得到企業實際產生的現金，營業活動的現金是
12:45
$168 in the first year now from an investing standpoint we've invested $800 into our property equipment when we
168美元，在第一年，從投資的角度來看，我們在不動產設備上投資了800美元，當我們
12:52
first started the business that's year zero and let's say that we also want to uh reinvest $80 to to offset that wear
剛開始創業時，那是第零年，假設我們也想再投資80美元來彌補那項磨損
13:00
and tear so we fix any equipment uh that has broken down think of it like maintenance so when we add those things
和耗損，所以我們修理任何故障的設備，把它想像成維護，所以當我們把這些東西
13:08
together we get our a cash that's in from an investing stand now when we take the cash from our
加在一起，我們就得到了來自投資活動的現金，現在當我們從我們的
13:14
business and minus the Investments we get to what we call free cash flow now that's the cash that the business has
企業現金中減去投資，我們就得到了所謂的自由現金流量，那就是企業在
13:21
produced after Investments and so that works out to $88 you can see it's 800 a negative 8800 because of the Investments
投資後產生的現金，所以計算出來是88美元，你可以看到是800，負的8800，因為剛開始
13:28
when we first started it up and it's called free cash flow and it's important because this is the cash that our
啟動時的投資，它被稱為自由現金流量，這很重要，因為這是我們的
13:33
business has that can be used to uh either pay a dividend to us as shareholders or maybe to repurchase
企業所擁有的現金，可以用來向我們股東支付股息，或者用來回購
13:40
stock effectively it means that we can pay ourselves as shareholders with free cash flow now from a financing
股票，這意味著我們現在可以透過融資，用自由現金流來支付股東自己
13:47
perspective we've raised $100 in debt we've also raised $11,000 in equity from selling our shares the total is ,00 from
面向，我們籌集了 100 美元的債務，也透過出售股票籌集了 11,000 美元的股權，總計是從
13:56
last year but we haven't done any financing this year so we don't have anything from year one now what happens
去年來的，但我們今年沒有進行任何融資，所以第一年沒有任何資金，現在發生了什麼事
14:01
when we put all those things together we got our cash from operations our cash from investing and our cash from
當我們把所有這些項目放在一起時，我們得到了營運現金流、投資現金流以及融資
14:06
financing we sum all those things up together we can see the net change in cash you can see that's how we ended up
現金流，我們將所有這些項目加總，就可以看到現金的淨變動，你可以看到這就是我們最終
14:12
with $300 in the when we first started the business that's why we have $300 in our bank account and our business
擁有 300 美元的原因，當我們剛開始創業時，這就是為什麼我們銀行帳戶裡有 300 美元，而我們的企業
14:18
generated $88 in the first year in net cash and it's the same as earnings uh
在第一年產生了 88 美元的淨現金，這與盈餘相同，呃
14:26
because you can see that our investments are just balanced with dep the depreciation it's just there to offset
因為你可以看到我們的投資正好與折舊平衡，折舊只是用來抵銷
14:33
the depreciation we didn't make any additional Investments so we take our beginning
折舊，我們沒有進行任何額外的投資，所以我們取期初
14:38
cash we take our net cash and then that ends us with the uh end cash for the period so we started out with $300 and
現金，我們取淨現金，然後就得到期末現金，所以我們開始時有 300 美元，而
14:46
that's how we end up with 388 at the end of year 1 and now we can look at it from a balance sheet perspective this
這就是我們在第一年年底如何達到 388 美元，現在我們可以從資產負債表的角度來看，這
14:53
basically just records where our money goes so this is what we started off with when we first started the business this
基本上只是記錄我們的資金去向，所以這是我們剛開始創業時的狀況，這
14:59
is our first balance sheet remember we didn't raise any Equity Capital so we still have a th000 in uh total Equity
是我們的第一張資產負債表，記得我們沒有籌集任何股權資本，所以我們在總股權資本中仍有 3,000 美元
15:06
capital and we've generated $88 in earnings let's say we keep that into the business that would be considered retain
資本，而我們已經產生了 88 美元的盈餘，假設我們將其保留在企業內，這將被視為保留
15:12
earnings just reinvested into the business we also have $100 in debt we didn't pay off any debt no change to
盈餘，只是再投資到企業中，我們還有 100 美元的債務，我們沒有償還任何債務，債務沒有變動，而我們還有 800 美元的不動產和設備，我們有 80 美元的折舊，但我們進行了再投資
15:20
debt and we also have still $800 in property and equipment we had that depreciation of $80 but we reinvested
債務，我們仍然還有 800 美元的不動產和設備，我們有 80 美元的折舊，但我們進行了再投資
15:27
$80 in capital expens ures so there's no change to our property and Equipment when we add the additional cash of $88
80 美元的資本支出，所以當我們加入額外的 88 美元現金時，我們的不動產和設備沒有變動
15:35
we end with 388 in cash so now we have total assets of 1,188 liabilities are still
我們最終手頭有 388 美元的現金，所以現在我們的總資產為 1,188 美元，負債仍然是
15:45
100 and so then our total Equity is 1,088 so you can see that the assets have gone up by
100 美元，所以我們的總權益為 1,088 美元，你可以看到資產增加了
15:54
$88 and then the equity has also gone up by $88 because the liabilities have stayed the
88 美元，然後權益也增加了 88 美元，因為負債維持不變
16:01
same so Equity is sometimes called Book value and that has increased by $88 so that's the value of the business from an
不變，所以權益有時被稱為帳面價值，它增加了 88 美元，所以這是從會計角度來看的企業價值
16:09
accounting perspective that's why it's called the the book value and it's sort of like net worth from an accounting
會計角度，這就是為什麼它被稱為帳面價值，它有點像會計上的淨值
16:14
perspective so it's increased by $88 so now let's think about the returns that we made on our investment as investors
角度，所以它增加了 88 美元，現在讓我們思考一下我們作為投資者在這筆投資上獲得的回報
16:21
so we raised $1,000 in equity Capital plus the $100 in debt works out to 1,100 in total capital Capal now the business
所以我們籌集了 1,000 美元的股權資本，加上 100 美元的債務，總共是 1,100 美元的總資本，現在這家企業
16:30
has made $88 in earnings so as a percentage of the equity Capital raise that works out to an
賺了 88 美元的盈餘，所以佔籌集的股權資本的百分比，這相當於
16:38
88.8% of return on Equity now if we want to think about the returns that the business has made for all capital
88.8% 的股東權益報酬率，現在我們如果想思考這家企業為所有資本
16:45
holders we want to look at the earnings before interest and tax because interest is paid to the debt holders or the bank
提供者創造的回報，我們要看稅前息前盈餘，因為利息是支付給債務提供者或銀行的
16:53
right and we still want to pay tax so we take the earnings before interest in tax then deduct the tax that gets us to $996
對，而且我們仍然要繳稅，所以我們取稅前息前盈餘，然後扣除稅款，這讓我們得到 996 美元
17:01
in earnings before interest in tax after tax on the $1,100 in total Capital now that works out to
的稅前息前盈餘，在 1,100 美元的總資本上繳稅後，這相當於
17:10
88.7% in return on total Capital so you can also see that because we borrowed some Capital it means we as Equity
88.7% 的總資本回報率，你也可以看到，因為我們借了一些資本，這意味著我們作為股權
17:18
investors have used less Capital with the same amount of earnings that's why we have a higher return on our Equity
投資人使用了更少的資本，卻賺取了相同的收益，這就是為什麼我們的股權回報率更高。
17:24
now looking at it from a book value perspective we started out with a $1,000 Book value now with the $88 in earnings
現在從帳面價值的角度來看，我們最初的帳面價值是 1,000 美元，現在有了 88 美元的收益。
17:32
the book value has increased to $1,088 again the assets minus liabilities equals the book value of the
帳面價值已增加至 1,088 美元，同樣地，資產減去負債等於該公司的帳面價值。
17:39
business from an an accounting standpoint and then the book value per share we just divided by the number of
從會計的角度來看，然後每股帳面價值我們只需除以發行的股數。
17:44
shares has increased from 100 to 109 so that works out to about a 9% increase in the value of the business for us as
股數已從 100 股增加到 109 股，這意味著對我們而言，公司的價值大約增加了 9%。
17:51
shareholders assuming that the business retains its earnings so I'd say that's a a pretty good return for our investment
股東們，假設公司保留其收益，我認為這對我們的投資來說是相當不錯的回報。
17:58
in the business just just for our first year 9% is pretty good if you think about what you get as a bank it's
在第一年，9% 是相當不錯的，如果你想想銀行能給你的利率，大約是 3% 或 4%。
18:02
probably about 3 or 4% treasury bonds might get four to 5% but of course we're not just operating for one year the nice
公債可能得到 4% 到 5%，但當然我們不只是營運一年，做生意的好處在於我們可以開始尋找更多客戶。
18:10
thing about a business is that we can start to find more customers and make more money for us as investors so let's
為我們投資人賺更多錢，所以讓我們看看如果我們在未來 5 年發展這項業務，情況會如何變化。
18:15
see how this changes if we grow the business over the next 5 years so starting with our growth assumptions
所以從我們的成長假設開始，讓我們假設我們的杯裝銷售額每年增長 10%，這意味著每年增長 10%。
18:21
let's say we grow our cup sales at 10% every year that works out to 10% every year and now we can uh estim IM at the
現在我們可以估算我們售出的杯數，讓我們假設我們的價格每年上漲約 2%，這相當於通貨膨脹率。
18:29
number of cups that we sold let's say that we grow our prices at about 2% a year that works out to inflation and
然後這當然會帶我們到銷售額，我們用售出的杯數乘以每杯的價格，這就得到我們的總銷售額預測。
18:36
then that gets us of course to our sales we take the cup sold times the price per cup that gets us to our total sales uh
現在從成本的角度來看，讓我們假設我們的銷貨成本或 COGS 也增加約 2%，所以通貨膨脹率也一樣。
18:42
forecast now from a cost perspective let's say our cost of goods sold or cogs increase also about 2% so the same with
所以我們所有的杯子和咖啡豆都以大約相同的通貨膨脹率增加，因此我們的每杯成本。
18:49
inflation so all of our cups and our beans work out to increase at about that same inflation rate so our cost per cup
會上漲那個金額，我們可以計算銷貨成本，用售出的杯數乘以每杯成本，就能得到我們的。
18:56
go up by that amount we can work out the cost of good sold by the cup sold times the cost per cup gets us to our
成本會上升那個金額，我們可以計算銷貨成本，用售出的杯數乘以每杯成本，就能得到我們的
19:02
estimated cost of goods sold now we look at a from an operating perspective let's say labor costs and wages go up about 5%
估計銷貨成本，現在從營運角度來看，假設勞動成本和工資上漲約 5%
19:11
a year we use that to estimate the total operating expenses of labor costs going up notice also that our Labor uh
一年，我們用這個來估計勞動成本上升的總營運費用，同時也注意到我們的勞動
19:19
expenses are growing not as fast as sales it's growing at 5% versus the 10% in cups and 2% in price so we're also
費用的成長速度沒有銷售那麼快，它以 5% 的速度成長，而杯數是 10%，價格是 2%，所以我們在
19:27
getting more efficient in our business and we're getting more bang per buck as they say like a lever and that's why
營運上也變得更有效率，正如俗話所說，我們獲得了更高的效益，就像槓桿一樣，這就是為什麼
19:35
it's called operating leverage when you can grow your sales faster than your operating expenses if you want to do
當你能讓銷售成長速度高於營運費用時，就稱為營運槓桿，如果你想做
19:41
some quick math you can see that our operating expenses have increased by about 20% whereas if you look at our
一些快速計算，你可以看到我們的營運費用增加了約 20%，而如果你看我們的
19:46
total sales have increased you know about 50% so you can see that's the leverage that we get we're getting 50%
總銷售額增加了大約 50%，所以你可以看到這就是我們得到的槓桿效應，我們獲得了 50%
19:52
in sales versus just 20% in operating expenses so now we can put this all together into the new income statement
的銷售成長，而營運費用只增加了 20%，所以現在我們可以把這一切都整合到新的損益表中
19:57
showing the trends of the the business going forward there's no change to interest we haven't raised any more debt
顯示業務未來的趨勢，利息沒有變化，我們沒有再舉借新債
20:03
no change to depreciation because we maintain the same level of property and Equipment the Investments balance with
折舊也沒有變化，因為我們維持相同的不動產和設備水平，投資餘額
20:10
the depreciation and of course shares remain the same as well so no change in debt no change in depreciation no change
與折舊一致，當然股數也保持不變，所以債務沒有變化，折舊沒有變化，
20:15
in shares and then so now we have our new revenues we have our new cost of goods sold and that gets us to our new
股數也沒有變化，那麼現在我們有了新的營收，有了新的銷貨成本，這讓我們得到新的
20:23
gross profit uh forecast for the future remove the labor so the total operating expenses and that helps uh uh calculate
毛利預測，移除勞動力（指勞動成本）後的總營運費用，這有助於計算
20:31
the earnings before interest and taxes we have our interest minus that gets us to our pre tax income and of course same
稅前息前利潤（EBIT），我們有利息，減去後得到稅前所得，當然稅率一樣是
20:38
tax rate 20% now we have our tax expense and that gets us to our net income and of course our earnings per share uh for
稅率20%，現在我們有稅務支出，這讓我們得到淨利，當然還有每股盈餘，呃，針對
20:47
the business so the point is now you can see that by the end of year five now we expect to generate 21 in earnings or
企業，所以重點是，現在你可以看到到第五年底，我們預期能產生21的盈餘，或
20:55
about 21 a share by year five and so this is is how earnings are calculated in a business and that really is a
約每股21元，到第五年，而這就是企業中盈餘的計算方式，這確實是
21:03
foundation of financial statements that believe it or not is everything you need to start analyzing a
財務報表的基礎，信不信由你，這是你開始分析一家
21:10
business okay so now let's switch gears to analyze the financial statements to evaluate the performance of the business
企業所需的一切。好的，那麼現在讓我們轉換方向，分析財務報表以評估企業的
21:17
as an owner and see what really makes us money so we start off by analyzing the trends in the income statement and we
績效，身為業主，並看看什麼真正讓我們賺錢。所以我們從分析損益表的趨勢開始，我們
21:23
want to be focused on the drivers of earnings in other words what makes us money uh for the business so we start
想要關注盈餘的驅動因素，換句話說，什麼讓我們在企業中賺錢。所以我們從
21:30
off with Revenue growth just look at the current year as a percentage from the prior year so that works out to about
營收成長開始，只看今年相對於前一年的百分比，這大約是
21:37
12% a year in growth you can see that we have 10% growth in cup volume and 2% price so 10 plus 2 gets us to our
每年12%的成長，你可以看到杯量有10%的成長，價格有2%，所以10加2讓我們達到我們的
21:45
Revenue growth and that tells us that the business is growing we can look at gross margins so we take the gross
營收成長，這告訴我們企業正在成長。我們可以看看毛利率，所以我們取毛利
21:52
profit as a percentage of revenues that's stable at 40% per year you can see the reason why is because the price
佔營收的百分比，這每年穩定在40%，你可以看到原因是因為每杯
21:59
per cup and the cost per cup are both stable they're both increasing at about 2% a year so that tells us that the
價格和每杯成本都很穩定，兩者都每年增加約2%，這告訴我們產品的
22:06
profits on the product are stable we can look at ebit margin so earnings before interest in taxes as a percentage of
穩定利潤。我們可以看看EBIT（息稅前利潤）利潤率，也就是息稅前利潤佔
22:15
revenues now that has increased from 16% to 20 23% now what that tells us is that the business is getting more efficient
營收的百分比。現在這已從16%增加到20%、23%，現在這告訴我們的是企業正變得更
22:24
because the costs are relatively fixed we know that the revenues are growing faster than expenses if you remember
有效率，因為成本相對固定。我們知道營收的成長速度比費用快，如果你記得
22:30
labor costs are just growing at about 5% a year because revenues are growing faster than expenses we get operating
勞動成本每年僅成長約 5%，因為營收的成長速度快於費用，我們產生了營運槓桿
22:37
leverage what operating leverage does is really it increases the rate of growth of earnings so if we look at EPS growth
槓桿；營運槓桿的作用實際上是提高盈餘的成長率，所以如果我們觀察每股盈餘成長
22:44
the earnings per share growth current year as a percentage of Prior year we we see that earnings per share is growing
每股盈餘成長（今年度相對於前一年度的百分比），我們看到每股盈餘正在成長
22:50
much faster it's growing at about 24% per year so that tells us that the business is making lots of money and
快得多，每年約成長 24%，這告訴我們該業務正在賺很多錢，而且
22:56
then from a balance sheet perspective again we're looking at this to see where all the money has gone now we know that
從資產負債表的角度來看，我們再次觀察這個是為了看看所有的錢去了哪裡，現在我們知道
23:02
there's no additional Equity raises so then that's why this stock level has stayed the same we know that there's
因此沒有額外的股權籌資，這就是為什麼股價維持不變；我們也知道沒有額外的債務籌資，這就是為什麼負債維持不變。如果我們假設盈餘都保留在公司內部，
23:08
also no additional debt raises so that's why debt has stayed the same and earnings if we assume have been retained
那麼這些盈餘就只是累積在資產負債表上。現在這是一個累計數字，所以盈餘只是
23:15
into the business it's just added up into the balance sheet now this is a cumulative sum so earnings are just
加到前一年的總和中，讓我們看到公司總共為 business 創造了 700 和 29 的
23:21
added up to the prior year sum so that we can see that the business has generated a total of 700 and 29 in
盈餘。目前在不動產設備方面沒有任何額外投資，所以不動產
23:30
earnings for the business now there hasn't been any additional investments in property equipment so property
設備這一項維持不變，因此所有的投資——我是說所有的盈餘——都以現金形式增長，
23:36
equipment as a line item has stayed the same and therefore all the Investments or all the earnings excuse me have grown
這就是為什麼現金也增長了相同的金額。所以當我們看帳面價值時，你可以看到它從略高於一千
23:44
as cash and that's why cash has grown by that same amount so when we look at the book value you can see that it's grown
增長到 1,729，這來自於公司所產生的所有盈餘，所以
23:50
from a little over thousand to 1,729 which comes from all the earnings that the business has generated so the
價值因為這些盈餘而增加了。現在我們可以將這些全部整合在一起，再次看看我們在投入資本上獲得的
23:57
value has increased increas because of those earnings and now we can put that all together to again see the returns
報酬。所以如果我們假設所有的保留盈餘都支付給我們這些
24:02
that we get on our invested Capital so if we assume that all the retain earnings are just paid to us as
股東，我們沒有任何額外的資本投資，股權也沒有增加，維持不變，債務也維持不變，
24:10
shareholders we don't have any additional capital investment and either Equity so that stays the same or debt so
總資本維持不變，我們可以看到股東權益報酬率（ROE）——也就是公司的盈餘占
24:16
total Capital has stayed the same we can see that the Returns on Equity so just the earnings of the business as a
股權資本的百分比——持續增加，對吧？因為我們在相同的資本上
24:23
percentage of the equity Capital continues to increase right because we're growing more earn earnings on the
獲得了更多盈餘，這就導致了更高的股東權益報酬率。投入資本報酬率（ROIC）也是
24:29
same amount of capital and that works out to a higher return on equity and it's the same thing for the return on
一樣的情況，它是稅前息前盈餘（EBIT）在稅後占總資本的百分比。你可以
24:35
invested Capital which is the earnings before interest in tax after the tax as a percentage of total Capital you can
看到股東權益報酬率和總資本報酬率都在增加，這告訴我們公司
24:42
see that both return in equity and return on total Capital have been increasing so that tells us the business
對資本的運用更有效率，這就是為什麼它獲得的回報越來越高。現在這是一個指標，
24:48
is making more efficient use of capital that's why it's getting higher and higher returns now that's an indicator
顯示公司真的賺了很多錢。現在讓我們看看這一切對公司價值
24:53
that the business is really making good money now let's see what all of that does to the value of the business
有什麼影響。讓我們從帳面價值開始，股權再次是資產減去負債，
24:58
business so let's start off with the book value so the equity again it's just the assets minus the liabilities think
從會計角度來看，可以將其視為淨值，它已從 1,000 增加到
25:05
of it as a net worth from an accounting perspective that has increased from 1,000 to
從會計角度來看，其淨值已從 1,000 增加到
25:13
1,729 book value because the earnings has increased and so the book value per share has also increased from 109 to 173
1,729 的帳面價值，因為獲利增加了，所以每股帳面價值也從 109 增加到 173
25:22
per share you can see that's all the earnings that have just been added up in the business and because we're getting
每股，你可以看到這都是在企業中累積的獲利，而且因為我們獲得了
25:29
higher Returns on the capital that leads to a larger increase in Book value book value is starting to grow at a faster
更高的資本回報率，導致帳面價值有更大的增長，帳面價值開始以越來越快的
25:36
and faster rate because it's generating more earnings and we can also see that from the cash perspective our cash per
速度增長，因為它產生了更多的獲利，我們也可以從現金的角度看到，我們現在的每股現金也是
25:42
share is now 103 as well so if you think about it we put down 100 per share if we uh gave back all the cash to us as
103，所以如果你仔細想想，我們投入了每股 100，如果我們把所有現金退還給我們
25:51
investors we would have made back everything that we've invested that $100 if we distributed all of our earnings
作為投資者，我們已經收回了我們投資的所有資金，那 100 美元，如果我們將所有獲利
25:58
back to shareholders now from a cash flow perspective we can look at the trends to see where the Investments and
都分配回給股東，現在從現金流量的角度，我們可以觀察趨勢，看看投資和
26:03
where the cash has been generated over time we know that there has been any no equity raises so there's nothing
現金是在何時產生的，我們知道沒有任何股權增資，所以那邊沒發生
26:09
happening there no debt raises so also nothing happening in the financing uh side of things the business has been
任何事，也沒有債務增資，所以在融資方面也沒發生任何事，企業一直在
26:16
generating uh an increase in net income and depreciation is stable because the uh assets have been kept level and we
產生淨利的增加，而折舊是穩定的，因為資產維持在一定水平，我們
26:23
have a stable depreciation of assets so we can see that cash from operations has been growing as well now from an
有穩定的資產折舊，所以我們可以看到營運現金流也在增長，現在從
26:29
investing standpoint we've reinvested to maintain the property equipment so we've reinvested that same amount of
投資的角度來看，我們為了維護廠房設備而進行了再投資，所以我們將相同金額的
26:35
depreciation into Capital expenditures those are the Investments and works out to a total of
折舊再投資到資本支出中，這些就是投資，總計為
26:41
our investing activities again we take the cash from operations from the business minus the capital
我們的投資活動，我們再次從企業的營運現金流中減去資本
26:47
expenditures and then that gets us to our free cash flow and you can see that our free cash flow is growing as well
支出，然後就得到了我們的自由現金流，你可以看到我們的自由現金流也在增長
26:53
we're generating 21 in free cash flow by year five which as is the same as the earnings because the Investments have
我們在第五年產生了 21 的自由現金流，這與獲利相同，因為投資
27:00
been balanced with the depreciation so because there haven't been any new Investments depreciation and capital
已經與折舊平衡了，所以因為沒有任何新的投資，折舊和資本
27:06
expenditure is balanced you can see that free cash flow and earnings are growing at the same Pace okay so now let's get
支出是平衡的，你可以看到自由現金流和獲利以相同的速度增長，好的，那麼現在讓我們
27:11
back to the most important question how much money did we make as investors so we've put down $1,000 in equity Capital
回到最重要的問題，我們作為投資者賺了多少錢，所以我們投入了 1,000 美元的股權資本
27:18
as shareholders and now over the next 5 years let's think about the returns that we get as investors so the business has
作為股東，現在在接下來的 5 年，讓我們想想我們作為投資者獲得的回報，所以這個企業已經
27:24
been generating earnings and it's generated a total of 7 $29 in earnings if we pay that all to ourselves that
已經產生收益，總共產生了 7.29 美元的收益，如果我們將這些全部支付給自己，這
27:32
translates into a 73% total return on our investment now if we assume that the earnings are just kept in the business
相當於我們投資的 73% 總回報。現在，如果我們假設收益只是保留在公司內部，
27:40
so we retain it the book value of the business has increased also by 729 so the book value has increased to
那麼我們保留的帳面價值也增加了 729，因此帳面價值已增加到
27:48
1,729 now from a growth in value perspective that translates into an annual return of about 12% every year we
1,729。從價值增長的角度來看，這相當於每年約 12% 的回報。我們
27:57
can also think about it from an earnings perspective so the business is now making 211 by year five in earnings or
也可以從收益的角度來思考，因為該公司在第五年時收益達到 211，或
28:03
$21 a share and relative to that $1,000 that we've invested that works out to a yield of 21% you can think of that as
每股 21 美元，相對於我們投資的 1,000 美元，這相當於 21% 的收益率。您可以將其視為
28:12
like an income so those are the three different types of ways that we made money on our invested Capital One is
一種收入。這些是我們在投入資本上賺錢的三種不同方式：一是
28:18
from growing earnings second is from the earnings growing business value and finally those earnings give us a yield
來自收益的增長，其次是收益增長帶來的企業價值，最後是這些收益為我們提供了收益率
28:25
or an income and so that's a pretty good business right those are really great return numbers and so when you tie that
或收入，所以這是一門相當好的生意，對吧？這些都是非常棒的回報數字，因此當您將這些
28:30
all together these are the things that make us as investors money it's really the growth and earnings so that comes
全部結合在一起時，這些就是讓我們作為投資者賺錢的因素，它其實就是增長和收益，這來自
28:37
from the sales growth the margins are the improved efficiency of the business that generates more and more earnings
銷售增長，利潤率是企業效率的提升，從銷售中產生越來越多的
28:43
from the sales and then finally the returns or the efficiency of how the business is using Capital will generate
收益，最後，回報或企業使用資本的效率將從投入的相同資本中產生
28:51
more earnings from the same Capital invested if the returns are increasing and all those three things work together
更多收益，如果回報率不斷提高，這三件事共同作用
28:57
to grow the value of the business and make us money as shareholders all right so now let's apply this analysis and
來增長企業價值，並讓我們股東賺錢。好的，那麼現在讓我們應用這個分析並
29:02
look at the trends in r a's financial statements so if we look at the income statement of the business over here we
觀察 R A 的財務報表趨勢，如果我們看這邊的損益表，
29:09
can look at the earnings so let's look at the net income and we can see that it's been going down and if we look at
我們可以觀察收益，讓我們看看淨利潤，我們可以看到它一直在下降，如果我們看
29:16
the earnings per share we can see that been going down as well and it's now zero so earnings have been going down
每股收益，我們也可以看到它一直在下降，現在是零，所以收益一直在下降，
29:24
there's a decline in earnings and there's just no earnings per share so that means that the business is not
收益出現下滑，而且每股收益為零，這意味著該公司
29:29
making any money now if we look at the assets so over here we'll look at the balance sheet so the assets about 7
沒有賺任何錢。現在，如果我們看資產，這邊我們看資產負債表，資產大約 7
29:36
billion that goes to 11.6 billion so we can see that the assets have nearly doubled the debt has also increased as
億美元增加到 116 億美元，所以我們可以看到資產幾乎翻了一倍，債務也增加了，因為
29:43
well so that's gone from 6 billion oops I actually marked that but it's a little over 7 billion so looks like they took
好的，所以這從60億開始，哦，我其實有標記，但稍微超過70億，所以看起來他們借了更多債務。
29:49
out more debt the number of shares have also increased over here which means they've raised Equity so they've sold
這邊的股數也增加了，這意味著他們籌集了股權，所以他們賣出了股票。
29:56
stock and so when we put that all together that means there's an increase in assets and it's been funded by an
因此，當我們把這些放在一起時，這意味著資產的增加，並且是通過增加債務和增加股份來資助的。
30:01
increase in debt and an increase in shares so they've raised a lot more capital for their Investments now when
所以他們為他們的投資籌集了更多的資本。現在當我們從現金流的角度來看，所有這些都是現金。
30:07
we look at the cash flow perspective so all this is the cash to think about where is this money going what are the
要思考這些錢去哪裡了，他們從這些投資中獲得了什麼回報。
30:14
returns that they're getting from these Investments if we look at just the cash flow from operations you can see that
如果我們只看經營活動現金流，你可以看到它一直在急劇下降，只有2.25億的現金流。
30:20
that has just been going down pretty dramatically just 225 million in cash flow if we want to look at the free cash
如果我們想看看自由現金流，我們在這邊有資本支出，你可以做一些快速計算。
30:28
flow so we got the capex over here you can do some quick math right so we have 800 minus about 382 so a little under
所以我們有800減去大約382，所以自由現金流略低於5億。
30:36
500 million in free cash flow whereas we look in the latest year it's about -200 in free cash flow so what that means is
而我們看最近一年，自由現金流大約是-200，所以這意味著。
30:44
that the business is not is is one having a decline in cash flow and also having a decline in free cash flow so
這個企業不僅現金流在下降，自由現金流也在下降。
30:51
there's negative free cash flow so the business is not making any cash from its Investments and that makes sense with
所以是負的自由現金流，這個企業沒有從它的投資中產生任何現金。
30:58
the earnings statement because the business is not making any earnings so with no growth in earnings we see that
這與損益表相符，因為這個企業沒有產生任何收益。
31:04
decline in efficiency because they're not generating earnings so margins are now negative it's not growing earnings
因為收益沒有增長，我們看到效率下降，因為他們沒有產生收益，所以利潤率現在是負的。
31:10
and returns are now negative that's why the business value starts to go down and eventually the business went
它沒有增長收益，回報現在也是負的，這就是為什麼企業價值開始下降。
31:18
bankrupt uh because it ultimately ran out of money because it had no cash flow to pay the interest on its debt so when
最終這家公司破產了，因為它最終耗盡了資金，因為它沒有現金流來支付債務利息。
31:25
a company can't pay interest on its debt it gets bankrupt and the debt holders take over the company so that's a key to
所以當一家公司無法支付債務利息時，它就會破產，債權人會接管這家公司。
31:31
reading and analyzing financial statements remember it's just the growth the margins and the returns and we can
這就是閱讀和分析財務報表的關鍵。記住，就是增長、利潤率和回報。
31:37
start to apply this to start to screen good versus bad companies and that's what we're going to do in the next
我們可以開始應用這個來篩選好公司與壞公司，這就是我們在下一節要做的。
31:43
[Music] section now the key to start screening
[音樂] 現在開始篩選公司的關鍵。
31:51
companies and there's about 3,000 stocks in the US market obviously more internationally you want to start to
美國市場大約有3000支股票，國際上顯然更多，你想要開始...
31:58
separate good versus bad companies and to put your money where it's going to grow and that's where the fundamental
區分好公司與壞公司，並把資金投入有成長潛力的地方，這就是基本面研究的關鍵
32:04
research comes in the key to fundamental research is to figure out what's changing in the business itself and in
研究的重點在於找出企業本身及產業正在發生什麼變化，一旦你分辨出哪些企業在賺錢、哪些沒賺
32:11
the industry and once you figure out which businesses are making money and which businesses are not and
並理解背後原因，就能篩選出好公司與壞公司。現在為了讓你明白，我們來比較兩家
32:16
understanding why that's how you can screen good versus bad companies now to show you this let's compare two
企業：左邊是克羅格（Kroger），他們販售雜貨，像是食品、蔬菜、肉類等產品；右邊是沃爾格林（Walgreens）
32:23
businesses we got Kroger on the left and they sell uh grocery stuff so food vegetables meat food products so forth
屬於藥房業務，銷售醫生處方藥。這兩家是相似的企業，都服務零售市場，因此客戶群相似
32:32
and then Walgreens on the right they there's the pharmacy business they sell drugs that doctors prescribe now there's
從股票角度來看也是如此。這是2015到2019年間的走勢，可以看到兩者表現基本一致
32:38
similar businesses they both serve retail so they have similar customers and even from a stock perspective so
克羅格是藍線，沃爾格林是紫線，克羅格小幅上漲2.5%，沃爾格林下跌2.5%
32:44
this is between 2015 and 2019 can see that they basically performed in line Kroger is the blue line over here
從2020年開始，其中一家上漲超過140%，另一家卻下跌80%。現在我們要深入分析這兩家公司
32:52
Walgreens is the purple line and Kroger is up slightly it's up 2.5% and Walgreens is down 2.5% over uh this
你將看到預示哪家表現更好的跡象。首先從財務報表開始，這是兩家公司過去三年（2017-2019年）的報表
33:01
time period now from 2020 onwards one of them went up more than 140% and the other one is down 80% and so now we're
和剛才圖表的時間段相同。比較這些數字時，我們要注意整體成長、毛利率趨勢和報酬率
33:11
going to look through these two companies and you're going to see the signs that indicated which would perform
看營收：克羅格從1150億增至1210億美元，沃爾格林從1180億到1200億美元，克羅格營收成長略好
33:16
better than the other so let's start with the financial statements here we got these two financial statements of
看毛利率：克羅格維持23%持平；沃爾格林從25%降至23%，表示沃爾格林產品的利潤變薄
33:21
these two companies and we're looking at the past three years from 2017 to 2019 the same period that we're looking in
接著看EBIT（息稅前利潤），和之前一樣扣除利息和稅項，但還剔除了折舊與攤銷
33:28
the chart just before so what do we notice when we Compare the numbers remember we're just looking for uh
這樣做是因為這些是非現金支出且與投資相關，能讓比較更直觀
33:33
growth overall margin Trends and and returns if we look at uh sales you can see that Kroger is going from 115 to 121
整體成長趨勢、利潤率趨勢和報酬率；如果我們觀察銷售額，可以看到 Kroger 從 115 增加到 121
33:43
Walgreens 118 to 120 so Kroger's is just growing sales slightly better if we look at gross margin so 23 to 23 looks like
Walgreens 從 118 到 120，所以 Kroger 的銷售額成長略好一點；如果我們觀察毛利率，23 到 23 看起來
33:51
they're stable if we look at Walgreens 25% gross margin goes to 23% so wal Green's gross margin has gone down that
是穩定的；如果我們觀察 Walgreens，毛利率從 25% 降至 23%，所以 Walgreens 的毛利率下降了，這
33:59
means Walgreens products are making less profit here we have IAS so IA is just like we were looking at before earnings
意味著 Walgreens 的產品利潤變少了；這裡我們有 IA，IA 就像我們之前看到的，是息前稅前盈餘
34:07
before interest and taxes but it's also removing the depreciation and amortization and we do that because
但它也扣除了折舊和攤銷，我們這樣做是因為
34:15
those are one non-cash charges and they're related to Investments so it just makes it easier to compare
這些是非現金支出且與投資相關，這樣能讓擁有不同投資水準的公司更容易比較
34:20
companies with different levels of Investments if we look at Kroger we can see there's a slight decline in ebit
如果我們觀察 Kroger，可以看到其 EBIT 利潤率略有下降，而 Walgreens 則保持穩定，這告訴我們 Walgreens 似乎在某種程度上抵銷了毛利率的影響。
34:27
margins whereas Walgreens is stable so that tells us that Walgreens seems to be somehow offsetting that gross margin
在 EBITDA 利潤率方面，有些 Margin 發生了變化，我們應該深入研究，但如果我們整體觀察盈餘，
34:35
impact with the uh ebit da margin there's something changing in margins that we should be looking into but if we
可以看到 Kroger 的盈餘成長相當不錯，而 Walgreens 則大致持平，僅略微下降。
34:41
look at earnings overall you can see that Kroger's earnings are going up pretty nicely whereas Walgreens is
從每股盈餘 (EPS) 的角度來看，Walgreens 從 2 美元成長至約 3.7 美元，
34:48
basically flat it's just gone down a little bit and from an earnings per share perspective Walgreens has grown
但 Walgreens 的每股盈餘從 3.78 美元下降，或者說是微幅上升至 4.13 美元。
34:54
from two to about uh 370 and earnings per share walls Walgreens has gone down from 378 or it's gone up and it's gone
因此，Kroger 的盈餘成長表現略好一些，你可以看到它成長了近 1.7 美元，
35:02
up just barely to $413 so Kroger is growing earnings a little bit better you can see it's grown by almost $1.70
而 Walgreens 僅成長了約 30 美分左右。因為盈餘是最重要的一點，Kroger 的盈餘表現較佳，
35:10
whereas Walgreens is just grown by about 30 cents or so because earnings is the most important thing Kroger's earning
這應該能給我們一個指標，顯示有某些情況正在發生，值得我們進一步關注。
35:16
earnings so that should get us an indicator that something is going on that we should look into now when we
現在，當我們從報酬率的角度來看，我們需要開始思考這些公司如何運用他們的投資。
35:21
look at the return perspective now we want to start thinking about what the companies are
我們可以看到 Kroger 的報酬率略有下降，總資本報酬率 (Return on Total Capital) 稍微下滑，
35:26
doing with their Investments we can see that Kroger's returns have been declining a little bit so a return on
這背後的原因可能是，如果我們觀察資本支出 (Capital Expenditure)，會看到有一個大幅跳升。
35:32
total Capital has declined a little bit and what that probably is if we look at capital expenditure we see this big jump
資本支出的大幅跳升，可能解釋了他們為何投入更多資本，這也是報酬率下降的原因。
35:38
in capital expenditure so big jump in capital expenditure might explain the reason that they've invested more
但如果我們觀察股東權益報酬率 (ROE)，它似乎正在上升，所以這點值得關注。
35:44
Capital that's why the returns have gone down but if we look at free uh return on Equity that seems to be going up so
此外，當我們觀察營運現金流 (Cash from Operations)，它是相當穩定的；而從自由現金流 (Free Cash Flow) 的角度來看，
35:51
something to paying attention to and also when we look at uh the cash from operations that's pretty stable and from
似乎有大幅增加的趨勢，這通常是個正面訊號，代表他們的投資正在創造現金。
35:56
a free cas perspective it looks like it's going up a lot so that's a generally positive sign that they're
這又是我們需要開始留意的地方。當我們觀察 Walgreens 時，我們看到報酬率也是穩定的，
36:02
making cash on their investment so again something to start to pay attention to when we look at Walgreens we see the
但現金流卻在略微下降，而且我們看到資本支出雖然增加了一點，
36:08
returns are also stable cash flow however is declining a little bit and we see that the capital expenditures is
但當我們觀察每股自由現金流時，自由現金流一直在下降。
36:17
increased a little bit but when we look at the free cash flow on a per share basis free cash flow has been going down
儘管他們投入了大量資金，卻沒有從投資中賺錢，因此...
36:25
and even though they're investing a lot L money they are not making money from their Investments and so there's
儘管他們投入了大量資金，卻沒有從投資中賺錢，所以
36:32
something clearly going on Walgreens is not growing earnings or or even cash flow while Kroger is growing earnings
沃爾格林（Walgreens）顯然出現了狀況，其獲利甚至現金流都沒有增長，而克羅格（Kroger）卻在增長獲利
36:38
and cash flow and also making some kind of investment so that gives us a big clue of what's going on so then we need
與現金流，並且還在進行某種投資，這給了我們一個關於發生什麼事的重要線索，因此我們需要
36:43
to figure out what's happening what's changing in these businesses and what's changing in the industry because once we
弄清楚這些企業發生了什麼變化，以及這個行業發生了什麼變化，因為一旦我們
36:49
understand these trends of who's actually making money and why we can start to make a good uh decision of
了解誰真正賺錢以及為什麼賺錢的趨勢，我們就可以開始做出好的決定
36:55
where to invest now this is where fundamental research comes in what we're doing is searching for the answer to the
該在哪裡投資。這就是基本面研究發揮作用的地方，我們正在做的是尋找
37:01
question of why is Walgreens not growing earnings and why is Kroger growing earnings and research pretty much looks
為什麼沃爾格林沒有增長獲利，而克羅格卻在增長獲利這個問題的答案，而研究大致上
37:07
like this we can start to look at the 10K filings that's the company's annual reports want to pay attention to the
是這樣進行的：我們可以開始查看 10-K 報表，也就是公司的年報，要注意
37:12
risk section the business and industry and management discussion and Analysis that's
風險章節、業務與行業以及管理層討論與分析（MD&A）
37:18
MDMA uh mdna MDMA is different we look at company transcripts so that's earning calls conference transcripts and
MDMA（筆誤，應為 MD&A），我們會查看公司會議記錄，也就是財報電話會議記錄、
37:26
Industry presentation ations as well as industry reports [Music]
產業研討會記錄以及產業報告 [音樂]
38:00
[Music] and so you do a little reading and usually it just pops out as long as you
[音樂] 所以你做一點閱讀，通常只要你在腦海中有個好問題並進行一些搜尋，答案就會浮現
38:04
have a good question in mind with some searching we can start to see why Walgreens margins have been going down
我們可以開始了解為什麼沃爾格林的利潤率一直在下降
38:11
so at the bottom over here we see this is pulled out from their risk section one of the key risks that they face is
所以在底部這裡，我們看到這是從他們的風險章節摘錄出來的，他們面臨的關鍵風險之一是
38:17
reduction and third-party reimbursement levels so it turns out that these lower reimbursement levels is a risk and the
第三方報銷水平的降低，事實證明，這些較低的報銷水平是一項風險，而
38:24
reason why that is if you do a little reading in the 10K is that pharmacies in the US are actually reimbursed by these
其原因如果你在 10-K 報表中稍微閱讀一下就會知道，美國的藥房實際上是由這些
38:30
third-party payers they don't actually make money from selling the drugs they make money from getting reimbursements
第三方支付者報銷的，他們並不是靠賣藥賺錢，而是靠在
38:36
when they sell drugs the second thing this is also in the risk section that they are seeing a pharmacy shift mix
賣藥時獲得報銷來賺錢。第二點，這同樣在風險章節中提到，他們看到藥房處方轉向
38:44
shift to lower margin plans and this comes from these 90day subscriptions which have a lower reimbursement rate
轉向利潤率較低的方案，這來自於這些 90 天的訂閱方案，其報銷率
38:52
and that rate has been going down which explains why they're seeing pressure on their gross margins because they make
較低，而且這個比率一直在下降，這解釋了為什麼他們看到毛利率面臨壓力，因為他們在
38:57
make less profits on their products and this is also from a transcript from their earnings call where the management
產品上賺取的利潤變少了，這同樣來自他們財報電話會議記錄中管理層的發言
39:04
is saying we expect fairly continued pressure from reimbursement on a long-term time Horizon so management is
表示我們預期在長期時間範圍內，報銷方面將持續承受相當大的壓力，因此管理層
39:11
very clearly saying that they expect pressure and reimbursement it's a long-term Trend in the industry and that
非常明確地表示，他們預期會有報銷壓力，這是該行業的長期趨勢，而
39:17
explains why they're having lower margins which also explains why they're not generating as much earnings it's
這也解釋了為什麼他們的利潤率較低，進而說明了他們為何無法創造那麼多的收益，目前
39:23
it's declining now when you search around you can also start to find industry articles so this this is a
正在下滑。當你四處搜尋時，也能開始找到相關的產業文章，例如這篇很
39:27
crazy one that Pharmacy fees have increased 91,000 per.
誇張的，指出藥局費用增加了 91,000 美元。
39:32
this is also an indicator that the industry is is quite pressured for pharmacies they're the the
這也是一個指標，顯示該行業對藥局的壓力相當大，這些第三方支付者
39:37
those thirdparty payers are also placing additional fees ones so this pressure is quite well known this is just from a a
也在收取額外的費用，所以這種壓力是眾所周知的，這只是來自一篇
39:44
news article explaining these fees so this explains why Walgreens is facing pressure on its earnings even though its
解釋這些費用的新聞文章，這說明了為什麼沃爾格林（Walgreens）的收益面臨壓力，即使其
39:51
revenues are growing and it's because of these lower reimbursement rates and higher fees being placed on now when we
營收正在成長，原因就在於這些較低的報銷率以及現在被加諸的更高費用。當我們
39:57
contrast it to Kroger so this is from their investor presentation in 2019 because we're looking at understanding
將其與克羅格（Kroger）做對比時，這是他們 2019 年的投資者簡報，因為我們正在試圖了解
40:04
what they're doing with their Investments and it looks like they're doing a lot of different things this
他們如何運用其投資，看起來他們做了很多不同的事情，這
40:09
explains why they've been investing a lot so they're doing cost savings they have this alternative profit streams
解釋了他們為什麼一直大量投資，他們在進行成本節約，他們有這些替代性利潤來源
40:14
which turns out to be that they're growing these new marketing and finance businesses they've also called out this
結果顯示他們正在發展這些新的行銷和金融業務，他們也指出了
40:20
gross margin pressure in retail pharmacy so they see it as well but from a strategic perspective it looks like
零售藥局的毛利率壓力，所以他們也看到了這點，但從策略角度來看，他們
40:26
they're focusing ing on Fresh so fresh food and so this explains that they're doing a lot of Investments they're
似乎專注於生鮮（Fresh），也就是新鮮食品，這解釋了他們為什麼進行大量投資，他們
40:31
strategically changing the business and when we look also into transcripts of conferences and earnings calls just to
正在策略性地改變業務。當我們查看會議記錄和財報電話會議記錄，只是為了
40:38
understand what's going on we use some keywords we can see that fresh departments have higher gross margins we
了解發生了什麼事，我們使用一些關鍵字，可以看到生鮮部門的毛利率較高，我們
40:45
can also see that they have these alternative profits businesses just searching around for margin keywords and
也能看到他們有這些替代性利潤業務，只要搜尋利潤率相關的關鍵字，就能
40:53
also have higher margins and that fresh offering is an important sales driver so what this tells us is that fresh is
發現其利潤率也較高，而且生鮮產品是重要的銷售驅動力。這告訴我們的是，生鮮
41:00
helping sales fresh has higher gross margins and alternative profits have higher margins overall so it's clear
有助於銷售，生鮮產品的毛利率較高，而替代性利潤的整體利潤率也較高，所以很清楚的是
41:07
that all these Investments to sum it up is positioning Kroger into higher margin stuff and that probably explains why
總結來說，所有這些投資都是為了讓 Kroger 轉向利潤率更高的產品，這或許能解釋
41:14
they're making more in earnings and cash flow from those Investments so when we compare Kroger and walgrees now with our
為什麼他們從這些投資中賺取了更多的盈餘和現金流。因此，當我們現在比較 Kroger 和 Walgreens，並根據我們的
41:21
research we can see a number of clear Trends one is that Kroger has better sales growth because they are investing
研究，我們可以看到幾個明確的趨勢。其一是 Kroger 擁有更好的銷售增長，因為他們正在投資
41:29
in fresh produce while in contrast Walgreens has lower reimbursements for pharmacies and that explains why Kroger
新鮮農產品；相反地，Walgreens 的藥房報銷率較低，這解釋了為什麼 Kroger
41:36
is generally growing sales better versus Walgreens there's also this clear shift to higher to margin products we got
的銷售增長普遍優於 Walgreens。此外，還有明顯轉向更高利潤率產品的趨勢。我們有
41:43
fresh alternative profit businesses versus mg greens has been shifting to lower margin products these low
新鮮的替代利潤業務，而 Walgreens 一直在轉向利潤率較低的產品，即這些報銷率較低的
41:50
reimbursement rate prescriptions now that explains why Kroger has relatively stable gross margins while Walgreens has
處方藥。這解釋了為什麼 Kroger 的毛利率相對穩定，而 Walgreens 的
41:57
declining gross margins on Wall Street we would say that there's a mix shift going on Kroger is Shifting to higher
毛利率卻在下降。在華爾街，我們會說這正在發生組合轉移。Kroger 正在轉向更高
42:02
margin businesses Walgreens is Shifting the lower margin businesses and that at a high level explains why Walgreens is
利潤率的業務，Walgreens 正在轉向更低利潤率的業務，這在宏觀層面上解釋了為什麼 Walgreens
42:09
growing earnings while uh uh sorry Kroger is growing earnings while Walgreens is not growing their earnings
的盈餘在增長，而呃呃抱歉，是 Kroger 的盈餘在增長，而 Walgreens 的盈餘沒有增長。
42:15
so when we go back to our chart knowing that what we know now is the same time period which company do you think is
所以當我們回到我們的圖表，根據我們現在所知道的，在同一時間段內，你認為哪家公司
42:22
more likely to make money meaning which one should we invest in give you a guess I would probably say let's buy Kroger
更有可能賺錢，意思是我們應該投資哪一家？讓你猜一下，我可能會說，我們買 Kroger
42:29
and maybe sell Walgreens and let's see what happens in the financials so this is for the next uh four years played out
並可能賣掉 Walgreens，讓我們看看財務報表會發生什麼。所以這是接下來四年，從
42:36
from 2020 to 2023 so as the financials happen we can see the trends we can see that Kroger's revenues have continue to
2020 年到 2023 年的發展情況。隨著財務數據的公布，我們可以看到趨勢，我們看到 Kroger 的營收持續
42:44
grow 122 to 148 while as uh Walgreens has grown as well but just at a at a slower rate now Kroger's gross margins
增長，從 1220 億增加到 1480 億，而 Walgreens 雖然也有增長，但速度較慢。現在 Kroger 的毛利率
42:53
are down slightly so 23% to 22% so seeing pressures and gross margins
略有下降，從 23% 降至 22%，顯示毛利率面臨壓力。
42:59
whereas Walgreens is down almost 2% so 200 basis points basis points is just 1/ 100th of a percent so Walgreens is
而 Walgreens 則下降了近 2%，也就是 200 個基點（基點是百分之一的百分之一），所以 Walgreens
43:09
facing more pressure on its gross margin you can see that's because of those reimbursement rate pressure that they
在其毛利率上面臨更大的壓力。你可以看到這是因為他們之前披露的那些報銷率壓力。現在 Kroger 的 EBITDA
43:15
disclosed before now Kroger's ebit da margin is actually improving it's gone from 4% to 5% now that's probably
利率實際上正在改善，從 4% 提升到 5%。這可能是
43:24
because they've shifted the business to higher margin businesses as a whole the freshh the alternative stuff whereas
因為他們整體上將業務轉向了利潤率更高的業務，也就是新鮮的、替代性的產品。
43:31
Walgreens has actually their profit been cut in half that's huge their profit margins have gone from 4% 2% and that
Walgreens 的利潤實際上已被腰斬，這很驚人，其利潤率已從 4% 降至 2%，
43:38
explains why Kroger's IA has expanded nicely whereas Walgreens has contracted from 4 billion down to 3 billion and
這就解釋了為什麼 Kroger 的無形資產（IA）增長良好，而 Walgreens 卻從 40 億萎縮至 30 億，
43:46
that's why Kroger's earnings are growing as a whole minus this slight contraction period in 2022 whereas Walgreens their
這也是為什麼 Kroger 的整體盈餘正在增長（除了 2022 年那段小幅萎縮期），而 Walgreens 的盈餘
43:56
earnings have grown slightly but eventually have started to contract and if we look into what actually gone on
雖有小幅增長，但最終已開始萎縮。如果我們深入探究 2023 年
44:02
happened in 2023 it looks like this big decline was also because Walgreen had to pay a pretty big fine for selling opioid
實際發生的情況，這波大幅下跌似乎也是因為 Walgreens 因在美國銷售鴉片類藥物
44:09
drugs in the US so that made it worse put that together it seems like this boost in Walgreens EPS was likely
而不得不支付一筆相當大的罰金，這讓情況變得更糟。綜合來看，Walgreens 每股盈餘（EPS）的這波提升很可能是
44:16
temporary whereas Kroger seems to have a more sustainable way of growing their earnings another clue from a Walgreens
暫時性的，而 Kroger 似乎擁有更可持續的盈餘增長方式。從 Walgreens 的角度來看，還有另一個線索：
44:24
perspective and when we see this increase in EPS but we don't see it in the EA in the actual earnings if it
當我們看到 EPS 增加，卻在實際盈餘（EA）中看不到時，如果兩者
44:31
doesn't match up it means something's going on it's probably just temporary now I would say based off these
不匹配，就意味著有狀況發生，而且很可能只是暫時的。我會說，基於這些
44:36
Financial Trends it's clear that Kroger's business is probably doing better when we look at the returns and
財務趨勢，當我們觀察報酬率和
44:42
free cash flow to see how their Investments are doing you can see that Kroger's returns are now improving as a
自由現金流以了解其投資狀況時，很明顯 Kroger 的表現可能更好。你可以看到 Kroger 的報酬率
44:48
result of their Investments they're generating more earnings so returns are improving cash flow is
隨著投資而改善，他們創造了更多盈餘，因此報酬率正在提升，現金流
44:55
stable and and free cash flow is actually trending upward so that's great there's this brief contraction period
穩定，且自由現金流實際上呈上升趨勢，這很棒。在 2013 年左右
45:03
looks like over here in 20123 looks like they also had this big increase in Investments so but if they're making
有一段短暫的萎縮期，看起來他們當時的投資也有大幅增加，但只要他們進行這些
45:10
these Investments and they're actually generating earnings so it should lead to better returns over time even with this
投資並實際創造盈餘，隨著時間推移，這應該會帶來更好的報酬率，即使經歷了這次
45:16
contraction now if we contrast this to Walgreens Walgreens has a very clear decline in the Returns on Capital it's
萎縮。現在，如果我們將此與 Walgreens 對比，Walgreens 的資本報酬率有非常明顯的下降，
45:22
basically zero at this point cash flow has gone down to have and even though they've picked up
目前基本上是零，現金流已降至一半，儘管他們增加了
45:29
their Investments they're not generating any earnings and free cash flow is also declining as well so you can see very
投資，卻沒有產生任何盈餘，而且自由現金流也在下降。因此你可以非常
45:37
clearly that Walgreens is having trouble generating cash it's having trouble generating earnings and the Investments
清楚地看到 Walgreens 在產生現金方面遇到困難，在產生盈餘方面也遇到困難，而他們進行的
45:44
that they're making just don't seem to be making any returns and so what do you think would happen to the value of these
投資似乎沒有帶來任何回報。那麼，你認為這些公司的價值會發生什麼變化？
45:50
businesses well let's look at from those 2020 onward matching that per time period of financials we see that
企業，那麼讓我們從2020年以後的每個時間段來看看這些財務數據，我們看到
45:55
Walgreens has basically just gone down with earnings and that's why it's dropped 80% you can see the green line
沃爾格林（Walgreens）的盈餘基本上持續下滑，這也是為什麼它下跌了80%，你可以看到綠線
46:01
is the stock price the black line is the earnings per share and you can see that has just gone downwards remember price
是股價，黑線是每股盈餘，你可以看到它一直在下降，記住價格
46:07
follows earnings now if we look at Kroger you can see that the price has gone up and it's gone up about
是跟隨盈餘的。現在我們看看克羅格（Kroger），你可以看到股價上漲了，大約上漲了
46:14
100% And with the stock just giving a brief pause at this period when there was this contraction in earnings in
100%。而該股在2023年盈餘出現收縮的時期只是短暫停頓了一下，
46:20
2023 so knowing what we know now that they're making Investments that are generating earnings and that might just
所以根據我們現在知道的，他們正在進行能產生盈餘的投資，而那可能只是
46:26
be a temporary contraction that was actually a good point to start buying the stock so there is some judgment in
一次暫時性的收縮，那其實是一個開始買進該股的好時機，所以在判斷
46:32
making an opinion on whether or not that Contra uh contraction was temporary and since it was you can see that the price
那次收縮是否為暫時性時需要一些判斷力，而既然它是暫時的，你可以看到股價
46:38
recovered and so did the earnings so let's compare the performance together we put on a pair trade at 2020 we went
回升了，盈餘也一樣。所以讓我們一起比較一下表現，我們在2020年進行了一筆配對交易，我們
46:47
long or buy Kroger and we went short Walgreens or sell Walgreens and Kroger is up almost
做多或買進克羅格，我們放空沃爾格林或賣出沃爾格林，克羅格從那時起上漲了將近
46:55
150% from that time frame and Kroger or sorry Walgreens is down over 80% so this would be considered a pair trade once we
150%，而克羅格，抱歉，沃爾格林下跌超過80%，所以這會被視為一筆配對交易，一旦我們
47:04
identified a good versus bad company and this is what a lot of stock picking hedge funds do like Citadel to make
找到一家好公司 versus 一家壞公司，這就是許多像Citadel這樣的股票選擇對沖基金為了
47:10
money and so you can see that's a value when we do this fundamental research we can see what's changing and quite
賺錢所做的事情，所以你可以看到這是很有價值的，當我們進行這種基本面研究時，我們可以看到什麼在改變，並且相當
47:15
clearly see what's a good business and what's a bad business so the key to screening out good versus bad companies
清楚地看到什麼是好生意，什麼是壞生意，所以用基本面分析篩選出好公司與壞公司的關鍵
47:21
with fundamental analysis is really to just to understand what's changing both in the business and the industry so you
在於真正去了解在商業和產業中什麼正在改變，所以你
47:27
use the financial statements to as a first indicator then you start to do the research and look for the change right
先用財務報表作為第一個指標，然後你開始做研究並尋找變化，對吧，
47:33
you look for the trends and growth margins and returns then it becomes very clear from the research and that's how
你尋找趨勢、成長率、利潤率和回報，然後從研究中會變得很清楚，而這就是
47:39
you start to look to buy companies with growing returns and growing earnings and sell or short meaning sell short the bad
你如何開始尋找買進回報和盈餘都在成長的公司，並賣出或放空（meaning 賣空）那些糟糕的
47:48
companies so now that you pick a can pick a company the question is how do I know it's the right price and so that's
公司。所以既然你已經選了一家，可以選一家公司了，問題是我要怎麼知道這是對的價格，所以這是
47:55
the next section we're going to talk all about valuing [Music]
我們接下來要談論的章節，關於如何評估價值。[音樂]
48:05
companies okay so now that we've analyzed the fundamentals of the company let's figure out what price do we pay
好的公司，既然我們已經分析了公司的基本面，現在讓我們來弄清楚我們要支付什麼價格
48:12
for the stock and now that's the valuation and here's why valuation really matters if you don't pay
來購買這支股票，而這就是估值。以下是估值為何如此重要的原因，如果你不注意
48:19
attention to valuation you might buy something like this so this is a company light speed and if you had bought at any
估值，你可能會買到像這樣的東西。這是一家名為 Light Speed 的公司，如果你在 2020 年到 2023 年期間的任何
48:26
point Point any point in 2020 to 2023 you would lose money especially of course if you bought it around here from
時間點買進，你都會虧錢，當然，如果你在這些高點附近買進更是如此。這支股票下跌了 80%，這是我們不希望看到的。我知道是因為我在這支愚蠢的股票上虧了錢，因為
48:34
those Peaks the stock was down 80% which is what we don't want and I know because I lost money on this dumb stock because
我確實在估值不重要時，在這附近買進了它。所以我將向你展示如何透過學習估值來避免
48:41
I actually did buy it around here when I was thinking valuations didn't matter so I'm going to show you how you can avoid
我確實在估值不重要時，在這附近買進了它。所以我將向你展示如何透過學習估值來避免
48:47
that Mistakes by learning valuation and it's going to become very clear why light speed's price didn't work and how
那個錯誤，並且你將會清楚地明白為什麼 Light Speed 的價格行不通，以及你如何
48:54
you can start to buy a stock at the right price that will actually make you money so to explain valuation let's do a
能夠以正確的價格開始買進一支股票，讓你真正賺錢。為了說明估值，讓我們快速
49:00
quick rewind and go back to our simple coffee shop to value that okay so these are our coffee shop
倒帶，回到我們簡單的咖啡店來進行估值。好的，這些是我們咖啡店的
49:08
financials these are the three-year financials by the end of year five and they're presented just like you would
財務數據，這是三年的財務數據，到第五年為止，它們的呈現方式就像你在任何其他公司的
49:12
see any other company in its filings and so now the question that we should ask ourselves is what price do we think we
申報文件中看到的那樣。所以現在，我們應該問自己的問題是，我們認為我們可以
49:20
can sell the coffee shop at now let's think about this logically by year five the cash value is the ,29 so that's
以什麼價格賣掉這家咖啡店？讓我們從邏輯上思考一下，到第五年，現金價值是 1,290，所以這
49:27
probably the lowest price that we can sell it at it's basically selling it for free for the amount of cash that we have
可能是我們能賣出的最低價格，這基本上是讓它以我們擁有的現金數量免費出售。
49:31
or we could look at something like the book value so the total Equity right remember it's just the assets minus the
或者我們可以看看像帳面價值這樣的東西，也就是總權益，對吧，記得它只是資產減去
49:37
liabilities so the book value of the company on the balance sheet that's about 1,729 so we could just sell it for
負債，所以資產負債表上的公司帳面價值大約是 1,729，所以我們可以只以它的資產減去負債的價值來出售它。
49:44
the value of its assets minus its liabilities or we could do something based off its earnings we know that it's
或者我們可以根據它的收益來做。我們知道它產生了 211 的收益，或者每股收益 21.1，或者自由現金流也是 211。
49:50
generating 211 in earnings or 21.1 in per in earnings per share or also the the free cash flow is also 211 as well
所以也許是對其進行某種倍數計算，假設它每年都能賺這麼多，我們還想考慮到
49:59
so maybe some kind of multiple on that assuming it can make that every year and we also want to take into account the
這個業務仍在成長的事實。你可以看到該業務在收入和利潤率方面都在成長。
50:05
fact that this business is still growing you can see that the business is both growing in terms of revenues and margins
實際上一直在增加，所以這個業務也變得更有效率，所以這應該有其價值。
50:11
have actually been increasing so the business is also getting more efficient so that should be worth something as
實際一直在增加，所以該業務也變得更有效率，因此這應該有其價值
50:16
well and so what we would do in real life if we were selling this companies we'd hire an investment banker their job
在現實生活中，如果我們要出售這些公司，我們會聘請一位投資銀行家，他們的工作
50:23
is to sell companies and the first thing a banker will do is actually look at how similar companies are priced in the
就是出售公司，而銀行家首先會做的，就是查看市場上類似公司的
50:30
market so the banker would put together a list of similar coffee shops and so that we can look at how they're trading
定價，因此銀行家會整理出一份類似咖啡店的清單，以便我們查看它們的交易情況
50:36
on the stock market to see how their Shares are valued so here are the companies we have the list of these
在股票市場上，看看它們的股價是如何被評估的，以下是我們列出的這些
50:42
comparable companies and we have the price per share as well as the earnings per share now to get a sense of the
可比公司的清單，我們有每股價格以及每股盈餘，現在為了更了解
50:49
price we can also look at the price as a multiple to the earnings per share so that would be the price to earning
價格，我們也可以將價格視為每股盈餘的倍數，這就是本益比
50:57
multiple metric and that's a very common valuation metric we can also look at the growth estimate for these companies for
指標，這是一個非常常見的估值指標，我們也可以查看這些公司未來幾年的
51:04
the next couple years and the banker will point out a couple key things we'll say that the market price for these
成長預估，銀行家會指出幾個關鍵點，會說這些
51:09
coffee shops is anywhere between 20 and 23 times earnings and the multiples are actually higher when growth is higher
咖啡店的市場價格大約是盈餘的 20 到 23 倍，而當成長性越高時，倍數通常也越高
51:18
and that's very common with a lot of companies everyone loves Buffett Buffett's coffee shop and so that's why
這在很多公司中都很常見，大家都喜歡巴菲特巴菲特咖啡店，這就是為什麼
51:23
Buffett actually trades at a premium relative to its growth now to normalize for growth we can look at the PEG ratio
巴菲特的股價實際上相對於其成長性享有溢價，現在為了針對成長性進行標準化，我們可以查看 PEG 比率
51:31
so we can look at the price to earnings multiple relative to the growth estimate and when we calculate the PEG ratio it
所以我們可以查看本益比相對於成長預估的倍數，當我們計算 PEG 比率時
51:38
becomes a little clearer that they're anywhere between 1.3 to 1.5 Peg that's the value of these shares we can then
會變得更清楚一點，它們的 PEG 大約在 1.3 到 1.5 之間，這就是這些股票的價值，我們接著可以
51:45
look at the median of the group to get a sense of what is the basically the middle of the line of what investors
查看該群組的中位數，以了解投資人為該企業支付價格的中間值
51:50
will pay for the business and that gives us an indication that investors will probably pay uh 23 times earnings for a
這給我們一個指標，顯示投資人可能會為一家咖啡店支付約 23 倍的本益比
51:58
coffee shop or about a 1.4 Peg and that reflects the current market price for coffee companies so there's two key
或大約 1.4 的 PEG，這反映了咖啡公司目前的市場價格，所以有兩個關鍵
52:06
things you need to do to value a business for its Market valuation first is to have a good earnings forecast so
事項你需要做，來為一家企業進行市場估值：首先是要有良好的盈餘預測，以便
52:14
understanding the growth for the future and two is to have comparable multiples so be able to price those earnings using
了解未來的成長性；第二是要有可比的倍數，以便能使用
52:21
the right peer multiples and those two things indicate the price that the market will pay for the business so what
適當的同業倍數來為那些盈餘定價，這兩點顯示了市場將為該企業支付的價格，所以我們
52:28
we'll do is we'll get together our managers to put together our projections for our coffee shop so these are the
接下來會做的是，召集我們的經理人來整合我們咖啡店的預測，以下是
52:33
growth projections or growth assumptions that would underly any Financial forecasts we have our sales so we expect
成長預測或成長假設，這些將構成我們所有財務預測的基礎，我們的銷售，因此我們預期
52:41
say 10% of cup sales in growth per year because the market for coffee is expanding where our coffee shop is we
每年杯裝銷售增長 10%，因為咖啡市場正在擴張，在我們咖啡店所在之處，我們
52:47
expect about 2% a year to grow with inflation and we also expect our product or unit cost to also grow at about 2%
預期每年約增長 2% 以反映通膨，同時我們也預期我們的產品或單位成本也將以約 2%
52:57
inflation rate as well now we also have our expenses we expect labor costs to continue to grow 5% every year again
的通膨率增長。此外，我們還有各項費用，我們預期勞工成本將持續每年增長 5%，再次強調
53:04
it's above uh inflation but it's still below our expected Revenue growth rate or sales growth rate we're going to
這高於通膨率，但仍低於我們預期的營收增長率或銷售增長率。我們將
53:10
actually need some Investments to expand now and we expect that we'll have to grow Investments at probably the same
實際上需要進行一些投資來擴張，而我們預期我們必須以與營收相同的
53:17
rate of revenues so about 12% remember we have 10% in uh sales cups and 2% price so that would add up to 12% so
速度來增長投資，約為 12%，請記住我們有 10% 的杯裝銷售增長和 2% 的價格增長，兩者相加即為 12%，所以
53:27
that's basically the assumptions of how earnings forecasts are built so we can put that all together into a model these
這基本上就是建立獲利預測的假設，因此我們可以將所有這些整合到一個模型中，這些
53:34
are our growth assumptions we expect cup sales to grow about 10% every year that gets us to our expectation for cup sold
是我們的成長假設：我們預期杯裝銷售每年增長約 10%，這得出我們預期的銷售杯數
53:42
we expect price increases of about 2% per year so that's the price per cup and then when we multiply of course the cup
我們預期價格每年上漲約 2%，這是每杯的價格，然後當我們將銷售杯數乘以
53:48
sold times the price per cup that gets us to our expected sales from a cogs perspective or cost of goods sold we
每杯價格時，就得出我們預期的銷售額。從銷貨成本（COGS）的角度來看，我們
53:55
expect the cost per cup to increase about 2% every year when we multiply the cost per cup times the cup sold that
預期每杯成本每年增加約 2%，當我們將每杯成本乘以銷售杯數時，
54:01
gets us to our cogs or cost of goods sold forecast our labor expense we incre
就得出我們的銷貨成本預測。我們的勞工費用，我們預期
54:07
expect a 5% increase per year that's our wages and then that gets us to our total operating expense forecast before
每年增加 5%，這是我們的工資，然後這得出我們在進行
54:16
investments from an investing standpoint we think that we're actually going to need to start to build out the coffee
投資之前的總營運費用預測。從投資的角度來看，我們認為我們實際上需要開始擴建咖啡
54:22
shop in order to get more of these customers so what we're doing doing is we're investing we're adding Capital
店以吸引更多顧客，所以我們正在做的是進行投資，我們正在增加資本
54:29
expenditures or caps into the business that those are the Investments we decided we're going to
支出（CapEx）到業務中，這些就是我們決定要
54:35
grow Investments with revenues so let's say we keep capex as a percentage of revenues at about 7% so a fixed uh
隨營收增長的投資。因此，假設我們將資本支出占營收的比例維持在約 7%，即一個固定的
54:43
percentage and so that allows our capex to grow with revenues so we take our
百分比，這樣就能讓我們的資本支出隨著營收增長，所以我們取我們的
54:50
beginning property equipment we add our capex and we also need to forecast our wear and tear of equipment so we expect
期初廠房設備，加上我們的資本支出，我們還需要預測設備的折舊，因此我們預期
54:59
it also to decrease by about 10% every year that's just the wear and tear or depreciation and that gets us to our
它每年也會減少約 10%，那只是折舊或攤提，這讓我們得到
55:06
dollar amount of depreciation that we expect now to work out our total assets at the end it's pretty simple we just
我們預期的折舊金額，現在要計算期末的總資產很簡單，我們只要
55:12
take our beginning property equipment we add the capex and then we minus the expected
拿起初的廠房設備，加上資本支出，然後減去預期的
55:17
depreciation that gets us to our end forecast of property equipment which reflects the growth in our assets from
折舊，就能得到我們預測的期末廠房設備，這反映了我們資產因
55:25
our investments now we can then put all these assumptions together into an income statement to start to see the
投資而產生的成長。現在我們可以將所有假設整合到損益表中，開始了解
55:30
business's expected earnings and growth so we have our revenue forecast and we expect to grow at about uh 12% every
企業預期的獲利與成長。所以我們有營收預測，預期每年成長約 12%，其中
55:39
year just is 10% in cups 2% in price pretty simple we minus the cost of goods sold that gets us to a gross profit we
10% 來自銷量，2% 來自價格，很簡單。我們減去銷貨成本，得到毛利，再
55:48
minus the depreciation and notice that depreciation is now going up because we are making additional
減去折舊，請注意折舊現在因為我們進行了額外的
55:54
Investments we reduce it by the labor expense and then that gets us to our earnings before interest and taxes we
投資而增加。我們再減去勞務支出，然後就得到我們的稅前息前利潤 (EBIT)，我們
56:02
can calculate our margins now so our ebit margins it's just the earnings before interest in taxes as a percentage
現在可以計算我們的利潤率，我們的 EBIT 利潤率就是稅前息前利潤占
56:07
of revenues can also see that it's still expanding because we're still getting more efficient because our labor costs
營收的百分比。也可以看到它仍在擴張，因為我們的效率仍在提升，因為我們的勞動成本
56:13
are growing uh slower same debt level so interest expense rate Remains the Same that gets us to our pre- tax income and
成長速度較慢。負債水位相同，所以利息支出比率保持不變，這讓我們得到稅前所得，而
56:21
we're using the same tax rate of about 20% so our tax expense increases as we grow pre-tax income and that gets us to
我們使用相同的約 20% 稅率，所以隨著稅前所得的成長，我們的稅負支出也會增加，這讓我們得到
56:28
our earnings net income or earnings for the business we don't have any change in equity we're not raising any more shares
我們的獲利，淨利或企業的盈餘。我們的股權沒有任何變動，我們沒有再發行任何股票，
56:35
so same share count and then that's how we can calculate our earnings per share that we expect for the business so we
所以股數相同，然後我們就能計算我們預期的每股盈餘 (EPS)。所以我們
56:41
expect next year to the business to generate 25.3 in earnings per share and we can also calculate the earnings per
預期明年該企業將產生 25.3 的每股盈餘，我們也可以計算每股盈餘的
56:50
share grow so we expect the business to grow at about 177% in earnings per share for the next 5 years so that's our
成長率，我們預期該企業未來 5 年的每股盈餘將成長約 177%，所以這就是我們
56:59
earnings forecast for the business of how much money it will make so now let's get back to market prices so here we
對該企業將賺多少錢的獲利預測。現在讓我們回到市場價格，所以這裡我們
57:05
have our comparable companies these are the multiples or the price of similar coffee shops trading on the stock market
有我們的可比公司，這些是類似咖啡店在股票市場上交易的倍數或價格。
57:12
now next year we know we're going to generate 25.3 in earnings per share we've estimated about 177% growth in
現在明年我們知道我們將產生 25.3 的每股盈餘，我們預估了約 177% 的成長率。
57:19
earnings per share for the next 5 years and so let's use the PEG ratio or the price to earnings multiple relative to
未來5年的每股盈餘，因此讓我們使用PEG比率，或市盈率相對於
57:25
the growth estimate we know that 1.4 is the median Peg for similar coffee shops so we'll use that
成長預期。我們知道同業咖啡店的PEG中位數是1.4，所以我們將使用這個數值。
57:33
we'll take that 1.4 * 17 that gets us to an expected multiple of about 24 times
我們將1.4乘以17，得出預期的估值倍數約為24倍。
57:40
we take that 24 times multiply that by the 25.3 in earnings per share and then
我們將24倍乘以每股盈餘25.3，然後
57:46
that gets us to our expected value of 5 95.8 per share and that's the expected value of our coffee shop based on the
得出我們的預期價值為每股595.8元，這就是我們咖啡店的預期價值，基於
57:55
earnings per share of 25.3 with a 24 times multiple so you can see that if we picked the right
每股盈餘25.3元和24倍的估值倍數。所以你可以看到，如果我們選對了
58:02
multiples and did our forecast correctly we can sell our coffee shop to the market at that price that's the
估值倍數並正確地進行預測，我們就能以那個價格將我們的咖啡店賣給市場，那就是
58:08
estimated value of our shares and you can also notice at that $595 almost $600
我們股票的估計價值。你也可以注意到，那個將近600元的595美元
58:14
is way higher than the 170 or so of Book value that our accountants tell us and this is why bankers get paid a lot more
遠高於會計師告訴我們的170元左右的帳面價值。這就是為什麼銀行家能賺大錢，
58:22
because they can help sell companies at market prices and usually much better better prices now we also know it's a
因為他們能幫助以市場價格，通常是好得多的價格，出售公司。現在我們也知道這是個
58:28
good price because we know that investors are also getting a good deal so this is the returns they can expect
好價格，因為我們知道投資者也得到了一個好交易。所以這是他們可以預期的報酬率，
58:35
if they buy the company at 59 5.8 so they put down 5,958 for 10 shares we know that the
如果他們以595.8元買下這家公司。所以他們投入5,958元買10股。我們知道這家公司的
58:43
total earnings of the business is going to be 1,782 if all of those earnings are
總盈餘將是1,782元，如果所有這些盈餘都
58:49
distributed to shareholders that represents about a 30% Total return from the earnings based on how the bus
分配給股東，根據公司盈餘的成長情況，這約代表了30%的總回報。
58:56
business is growing its earnings now of course the second way the investors can also make a return is say they decide to
當然，投資者獲利的第二種方式是，假設他們決定在第10年
59:03
sell the business off at year 10 so by year 10 the coffee shops making about 472 in earnings from our previous
將公司出售。所以在第10年，根據我們之前的預測，咖啡店的盈餘約為472元。
59:10
forecast they also sell it at 24 times earnings they're going to sell it at 11,135 so if they sell it at that future
他們也以24倍的市盈率出售，將以11,135元的價格賣出。所以如果他們以那個未來的
59:20
market value they're getting about 13% in returns based off that growth in market value from the earnings and same
市場價值出售，基於盈餘的增長，他們將獲得約13%的回報。同樣地，
59:28
way from a yield perspective the business is generating 472 by the end of year 10 and so that represent an 8%
從收益率的角度來看，公司在第10年底產生472元的盈餘，因此這代表了
59:37
yield based off the capital put down of 5,958 so that represents the income from the investment so if we compare that to
基於投入資本5,958元的8%收益率。所以這代表了投資的收入。因此，如果我們將其與
59:45
other investment options we can think about treasury yields are about 4.5 bonds are about five or six and cash is
我們可以考慮的其他投資選擇，國債收益率約為 4.5%，债券收益率約為 5% 或 6%，而現金收益率
59:52
about 3% of the bank and so that income or the earnings yield perspective at 8% is a pretty good deal and from a growing
約為 3%，因此從 8% 的收益率角度來看，這是一筆相當不錯的交易，而從成長
1:00:00
value perspective so capital appreciation and we growing at 133% a year the stock market tends to
價值的角度來看，也就是資本增值，我們每年成長 133%，股市傾向於
1:00:06
appreciate at about a 10% rate per year and so that's actually a good return as well and ultimately everything comes
每年以約 10% 的速度增值，所以這實際上也是一個很好的回報，最終一切都
1:00:13
down of course to earnings that's where all the values comes from and so if investors are getting a good deal versus
歸根結底到獲利，所有的價值都源自於此，所以如果投資者相比其他
1:00:20
other investment options that means that the business is most likely going to be sold at that price CU it's a good deal
投資選項能獲得一筆好交易，這意味著該公司很可能會以該價格被收購，因為這是一筆好交易
1:00:27
so that's how companies are actually pricing on the stock market and how investors actually figure out if an
這就是公司在股票市場上的定價方式，以及投資者如何判斷一項
1:00:31
investment is a good deal or not all right now let's go back to light speed so that was a company at the beginning
投資是否為好交易。好了，現在我們回到 Lightspeed，這是我們在本節開始時提到的一家公司，
1:00:36
of the section and let's see how this company was valued right at its peak around September 2021 so we're going to
讓我們看看這家公司在 2021 年 9 月左右的巔峰時期是如何估值的，我們將
1:00:43
use the same process that we did before we have our comparable companies over here we got wex corpay shift for
使用與之前相同的流程，我們這裡有可比的公司，我們有 Wex、Corpay、Shift4
1:00:48
payments these are all similar sized payment companies and they're smaller so they're not generating a lot of earnings
Payments，這些都是規模相似的支付公司，而且它們規模較小，所以當時
1:00:55
at the time so what we're going to do was use the FY 2026 earnings forecast so the next 5 years to price the companies
並沒有產生很多獲利，所以我們要做的是使用 2026 財年的獲利預測，也就是未來 5 年的數據來為這些公司定價
1:01:02
FY just means fiscal year so the company's reporting year we also have our long-term growth estimate over here
FY 指的是會計年度（Fiscal Year），也就是公司的報告年度，我們這裡還有長期成長預估
1:01:09
and then the median works out to about a 10 times multiple on the FY 2026 estimates with the 15% growth estimate
然後中位數計算出來約為 2026 財年預估的 10 倍本益比，加上 15% 的成長預估
1:01:17
median or a 7 Peg now with all that said just to give you a sense of how extreme light speeds valuation let's take a look
中位數，或 7 的 PEG 比率。現在說了這麼多，為了讓你了解 Lightspeed 的估值有多極端，讓我們來看看
1:01:25
at light speed so at its peak of $120 a share that $120 a share
Lightspeed，在其每股 120 美元的巔峰時期，每股 120 美元
1:01:33
represented a 3,000 times multiple on a 04 earnings per share for FY 2026 as an
代表了 2026 財年每股盈餘 0.4 美元預估值的 3,000 倍本益比，或
1:01:40
estimate or an 85.7 Peg so even though the company is growing a lot faster than all these
一個 85.7 的 PEG 比率，所以即使該公司的成長速度比所有這些
1:01:47
other companies at 35% it really just was way too expensive now to put it in another way if you bought it at one 20
其他公司快得多，達到 35%，它當時實在是太貴了。換個方式說，如果你以每股 120 美元買進，
1:01:56
per share that 0.4 EPS needs to grow by about 300 times
那 0.4 美元的每股盈餘需要成長約 300 倍。
1:02:04
just to get to the same valuation of the group of about 10 times so what do you think would happen if you bought it at
才剛達到集團約10倍的相同估值，那麼你覺得如果在
1:02:11
that $120 price well you lose almost all your money light speed stock declined over
那個120美元的價格買進會發生什麼事？嗯，你幾乎賠光了所有錢，Lightspeed的股價下跌超過
1:02:19
80% and yeah maybe the business slowed down a little bit but the business is really doing fine now you might notice
80%，而沒錯，也許業務是稍微放緩了一些，但業務現在其實運作得不錯，你可能注意到
1:02:25
if you're paying mentioned that all the valuations came down so between this time period of 2022 a lot of companies
如果你有注意到我提過所有估值都下降了，所以在2022年這段時間，很多公司
1:02:31
were trading at quite high valuations and grow slowed down a little bit in 2022 so valuations came down so you
的交易估值相當高，而成長在2022年稍微放緩，所以估值下降了，因此你
1:02:37
might think okay what if I just bought around here right at the end of 2022 would I still make money let's take a
可能會想，好吧，如果我在2022年底這附近買進會怎樣？我還能賺錢嗎？我們來
1:02:42
look so at the end of 2022 so September one year later we'll use the same process with the same comps except now
看看，所以在2022年底，也就是一年後的9月，我們將使用相同的流程和相同的比較對象，只不過現在
1:02:50
we're going to use FY 2027 estimates so for the next 5 years the long-term growth hasn't really changed that much
我們將使用2027財年的預估，所以未來5年，長期成長率並沒有改變太多，
1:02:57
and you can see valuations have come down they're now at a six times multiple on a 5-year estimate on a 15% growth
而你可以看到估值已經下降，現在是5年預估的6倍本益比，以15%的成長率
1:03:04
rate translates into a 4times peg now let's look at what light speed looks at so light speed even at this
來算，等於是4倍的PEG（本益比相對成長率），現在讓我們看看Lightspeed的情況，Lightspeed即使在這個
1:03:12
18.6 which is down 80% light speed is still 35 times so it's still five times
18.6美元（已經下跌80%）的價位，仍然是35倍本益比，所以它仍然貴了
1:03:19
more expensive than the group and also notice that shiftwise and or shift for and corpe are trading at 0.2 to point4
集團的五倍，同時也注意到Shiftwise和/或Shift4以及Corpe的交易PEG在0.2到0.4
1:03:28
Peg so that's pretty low because a lot of companies if they're good companies tend to trade around one so that's
之間，這相當低，因為很多公司如果是好公司，傾向於在1左右交易，所以這
1:03:35
actually a great price assuming the estimates and the growth are correct so what happens if you buy at these prices
其實是個很棒的價格，假設預估和成長率是正確的。那麼如果你在這些價格買進會發生什麼事？
1:03:42
both light speed and core pay and shift for payments let's take a look so what happens if you buy it at that point well
包括Lightspeed、CorePay和Shift4 Payments，我們來看看。如果你在那個時間點買進會發生什麼事？嗯，
1:03:49
at least with light speed you stop losing money right but your stock is still down 4% so you still don't make
至少對於Lightspeed，你停止虧損了，對吧？但你的股票仍然下跌4%，所以你還是沒賺到
1:03:56
money even though you bought the dip and so this is why you don't just buy dips on stocks without knowing the valuation
錢，即使你買在低點。這就是為什麼你不該在不了解估值的情況下，就只是買進下跌的股票。
1:04:02
now let's look at those other two let's look at coray and Shift 4 you can see both of those returns are up more than
現在讓我們看看另外兩家，我們來看看Coray和Shift4，你可以看到這兩檔的報酬率都上漲超過
1:04:10
100% so they're both up more than double and you can start to see the power in doing this right by understanding the
100%，所以兩者都上漲超過一倍，而你可以開始看到這樣做的威力，對吧？透過了解
1:04:16
earnings forecast and how to Value these companies the market will give you real opportunities to multiply your money so
營收預測以及如何評估這些公司，市場會給你真正的機會來倍增你的資金。
1:04:23
the keys to valuing a business is one having a good earnings forecast of what the future earnings of the business
評估一間企業的關鍵在於，首先要對該企業未來的獲利有良好的預測
1:04:28
looks like and that's how the market values companies second is having a good multiple so the comparable multiples of
這就是市場評估公司的方式，其次是要有一個良好的乘數，也就是類似公司相對於其未來獲利的
1:04:34
how similar companies are priced relative to their future earnings you get those two things right and you'll
可比乘數，如果你掌握了這兩點，你就能
1:04:39
find Opportunities to make money so how about let's see all this in action see a real forecast and valuation of a public
找到賺錢的機會，那麼讓我們來看看實際操作，看一個公開公司的真實預測與估值
1:04:46
company so you can see what it looks [Music] like so we're going to forecast
讓你看看它是什麼樣子，那麼我們將要預測
1:04:56
Paylocity it's this software company they provide payroll and HR or human resource platform for small businesses
Paylocity，這是一家軟體公司，他們為小型企業提供薪資和人力資源（HR）平台
1:05:03
and I like to use this company as a case study to mentor and teach investors because it's a simple business to
我喜歡用這家公司作為案例來指導和教導投資者，因為這是一間容易
1:05:08
understand so by the end of this once you understand forecasting and then valuation you're going to see exactly
理解的簡單企業，所以在這堂課結束時，一旦你理解了預測和估值，你將會清楚地看到
1:05:14
why this was an expensive price for Paylocity and where you don't want to buy and why this is actually a cheap
為什麼這個價格對 Paylocity 來說是昂貴的，以及你不該買進的位置，還有為什麼這個價格對該股票來說其實是便宜的
1:05:22
price for the stock and where you do want to buy and I'm going to discourage you now from Trading prices when if
以及你想要買進的位置，而如果你是想學習投資，我現在就要勸你不要
1:05:28
you're looking to learn to invest because if we take a purely price or technical driven view that discipline
進行價格交易，因為如果我們採取純粹看價格或技術指標的觀點，那套準則
1:05:38
would inform you to one look for the trend and then you want to sell when the trend breaks so you would sell over here
會告訴你要先尋找趨勢，然後你想在趨勢破壞時賣出，所以你會在這裡賣出
1:05:46
and then it would teach you to start looking at support levels and resistance levels and teach you to start buying
接著它會教你開始看支撐位和壓力位，並教你開始在
1:05:54
around here selling here buying here and selling here and so what happens if you learn to just value a business correctly
這裡買進、在這裡賣出、在這裡買進、在這裡賣出，那麼如果你學會正確地評估一間企業，會發生什麼事呢？
1:06:04
you can figure out these areas like here and here as major price areas that are considered cheap and expensive ahead of
你可以預先找出這些區域，例如這裡和這裡，被視為便宜和昂貴的主要價格區域
1:06:12
time so it really avoids you having to spend all this time trading back and forth and that's why I believe that
這真的能避免你花所有時間來回交易，這就是為什麼我相信
1:06:18
valuing businesses is just much more powerful when you're looking at long-term investing so here's the past
當你著眼於長期投資時，評估企業要強大得多，這是 Paylocity 從 2020 年到 2023 年
1:06:24
fouryear Financial statement from 2020 to 2023 for payasi that we use as a base to forecast and value that stock most
過去四年的財務報表，我們以此作為預測和評估該股票的基礎，大多數人
1:06:33
people when you ask them why they buy a stock they might say something like well I like the Starbucks brand and I drink
當你問他們為什麼買進一檔股票時，他們可能會說，嗯，我喜歡星巴克的品牌，而且我在那裡喝咖啡
1:06:41
coffee there when really you should be thinking what is my forecast of the company because if I asked you how much
但實際上你應該思考的是，我對這家公司的預測是什麼？因為如果我問你多少
1:06:48
money do you think you can make next year you'd probably say well I'm in charge of Business Development if my
你認為明年能賺多少錢？你可能會說，嗯，我是負責業務發展的，如果我的
1:06:53
business can hit these sales targets I can probably get this kind of payout for my contract now that's the exact kind of
業務能達到這些銷售目標，我的合約大概就能拿到這種報酬。這正是你在
1:06:59
mentality that you should think about when investing in a company if you're giving them your money you should at
投資一家公司時應該有的心態。如果你要給他們錢，你至少應該思考
1:07:04
least think what is the business going to do to make me money as an investor now the keys to good forecasting is to
這家業務要做什麼才能讓我這位投資人賺錢。好的預測關鍵在於
1:07:12
get three important things reasonably correct one is sales growth two is margins and three is capital Investments
將三件重要事情合理地弄對：一是銷售增長，二是利潤率，三是資本投資。
1:07:19
notice these are the exact same things that we use to analyze financial statements is because they ultimately
請注意，這正是我們用來分析財務報表的相同要素，因為它們最終
1:07:24
help us forecast pass the earnings the key to getting the sales growth rate is getting a base rate now what that is is
能幫助我們預測未來的收益。掌握銷售增長率的關鍵在於取得一個基準率，所謂基準率就是
1:07:32
you want to be looking for some kind of reference otherwise you're just making it up or you have to trust someone
你需要找到某種參考依據，否則你只是在瞎猜，或者你必須相信他人
1:07:36
else's forecast a base rate can come from a number of places you can look at the market growth rate you can look at
的預測。基準率可以來自多個地方：你可以查看市場增長率，可以查看
1:07:43
the growth rate of its peers you can look at the Historical growth rate to get a sense of the trends you can also
同業的增長率，可以查看歷史增長率以掌握趨勢，也可以
1:07:48
look at the company's Target so what you do is you want to start high level and then start honing in and it's really
查看公司的目標。所以你的做法是先從宏觀層面開始，然後再逐步聚焦。把
1:07:54
important to get the sales growth number right because everything flows from there and you'll see when we do the
銷售增長數字弄對非常重要，因為一切都從這裡流出，你會看到當我們做
1:07:59
forecast and it all comes down to guess from doing good fundamental research
預測時，一切都歸結於透過良好的基礎研究所做的推斷。
1:08:05
[Music]
[音樂]
1:08:35
[Music] so let's start by looking at the numbers that we got first is the growth of the
[音樂] 那麼我們先來看看我們取得的數字。首先是
1:08:43
market so this is a forecast from an industry report on the human Capital Management market so that's the market
市場的增長。這是一份關於人力資本管理市場的產業報告預測，也就是
1:08:50
that Paylocity is a part of they forecast this Market to grow at a kager or compound annual growth rate of about
Paylocity 所屬的市場。他們預測這個市場未來幾年的年複合成長率 (CAGR)
1:08:57
9% for the next few years so that's the market growth rate then we want to zoom in a little bit so then we want to look
約為 9%，這是市場增長率。接著我們想稍微放大一點，看看
1:09:03
at the peers so these are the comparable companies these are similar payroll and human resource companies over here you
同業。這些是可比的公司，這些是類似的薪資與人力資源公司。在這裡
1:09:10
can see there's obviously a big range of growth rates so we can start by looking at the median and so the sales growth
你可以看到增長率顯然有個很大的範圍，所以我們可以先看中位數，也就是銷售增長
1:09:17
rate tends to range between anywhere from 10 to uh 22% and pelocity up over here we can see 10 to grow at a lot
利率通常介於 10% 到 22% 之間，而 Pelocity 的增長率在這裡可以看出來是 10% 或更高，增長速度快很多
1:09:27
faster rate so it's a faster growing company than some of its peers but we can see that it at times can also grow
所以它比一些同行成長得更快，但我們也可以看到，有時它也能以
1:09:35
at around the market rate of its peers like it did in 2021 then we want to zoom in again to the company itself so this
與同行相近的市場速度成長，就像它在 2021 年那樣。然後我們想再次放大檢視公司本身，這是
1:09:42
is from an investor presentation of pity's own Financial targets we can see that they target around a 20% plus
從 Pelocity 自己的財務目標投資者簡報中來的，我們可以看到他們目標是約 20% 以上的
1:09:50
Revenue growth rate this is back in 2023 here's a forecast model for pelocity and here's how it's built it's just the same
營收成長率，這是回到 2023 年。這裡是 Pelocity 的預測模型，以及它是如何建構的，這跟我們之前
1:09:58
way as when we forecasted a coffee shop based on the cups and the number of Cups sold and the price per cup with pelocity
根據杯數、賣出的杯數以及每杯價格來預測咖啡店的方式完全一樣。對於 Pelocity，
1:10:06
they sign on businesses so that's the client count they're they charge based off the number of employees so we have
他們是與企業簽約，所以這是客戶數量，他們根據員工人數來收費，所以我們有
1:10:12
the average employees per clients or the client size that works out to the total amount of client employees that they're
每個客戶的平均員工人數或客戶規模，這就等於他們收費的總客戶員工人數，
1:10:20
charging and then there's a price or a revenue per client employee and then that gets us to our total revenue
然後再乘以每個客戶員工的價格或營收，這樣就得到了我們的總營收
1:10:26
forecast so then we can work out the three major forecasts that we're going to do which is the revenue per client
預測。接著我們就可以進行我們要做的三個主要預測，也就是每位客戶員工的營收、
1:10:35
employee the average client size and the number of clients that they have which of course gets us to the client
平均客戶規模以及他們擁有的客戶數量，這當然就導出了客戶
1:10:41
employees now we're going to work backwards a little bit starting off with the price forecast so just put in a 2%
員工總數。現在我們要稍微倒推，從價格預測開始，所以就假設每位員工的營收成長 2%
1:10:47
Revenue per employee so about the same as inflation when I look at the average client employee guys there was this big
大約跟通膨一樣。當我看到平均客戶員工數時，發現 2023 年有個大幅
1:10:56
jump in 2023 now it turns out that was actually a one-time thing when they shifted to bigger clients the prior year
跳升，結果證明那其實是一次性的，因為他們前一年轉向了更大的客戶，但
1:11:04
but that shouldn't recur so we keep that stable so 0% so basically we're just modeling or forecasting based off the
這不應該再次發生，所以我們讓它保持穩定，也就是 0%。所以基本上我們只是根據
1:11:11
growth in the number of clients that they have so the peers from a revenue perspective are growing between 10 to 20
他們客戶數量的成長來建模或預測。所以這些同行從營收角度來看，成長率在 10% 到 20% 之間，
1:11:19
so if we take the middle is about 15% and minus the two and maybe another 1% from other Revenue stuff that gets us
如果我們取中間值大約是 15%，再減去 2%，也許再從其他營收項目減去 1%，這樣就得到
1:11:29
to about 12% or so and so that's how I got to the 12% in the number of clients and of course when we multiply that by
大約 12% 左右，這就是我得出 12% 客戶數量成長率的方式。當然，當我們將其乘以
1:11:37
the average employee size plus the 2% price increase that's how we get to that 14% Revenue growth rate now of course
平均員工規模，再加上 2% 的價格上漲，這就是我們得到 14% 營收成長率的方式。現在當然，
1:11:45
that's below the 20% Target that they're that they have forecasted for themselves and that's because they make money in
這低於他們為自己預測的 20% 目標，這是因為他們賺錢是在
1:11:54
some other ways which I've excluded here just to keep it simple they make money from interest from withholding payroll
我這裡省略了一些其他方式，為了簡化說明，他們透過利息收入、代扣稅款
1:12:00
for taxes and that adds generally between 3 to 4% so the total revenue forecast is about 17 or
以及薪資稅來賺錢，這通常會增加 3% 到 4%，所以總營收預測大約是 17 或
1:12:08
18% in Revenue growth and it's slightly under the 20% Target but I'm not trying to get too crazy here right I'm trying
18% 的營收成長，稍微低於 20% 的目標，但我並不打算太過激進，我只是想
1:12:14
to just want to make a base forecast so when we look at margins the key is to understand how the business grows is
建立一個基礎預測，所以當我們觀察利潤率時，關鍵在於了解企業如何成長，也就是
1:12:22
expenses as it expands and so that's where you pay pay attention to the cost structure of the business and you get a
隨著擴張而產生的費用，因此你必須注意企業的成本結構，你可以
1:12:27
sense of that by reading the 10K filings as well as the transcripts when the company gives presentations to investors
透過閱讀 10-K 報表，以及公司向投資者進行演示時的逐字稿來了解
1:12:33
so here we can look at both the historical margin Trends over here as well as their long-term targets so we
所以在這裡，我們可以同時觀察左邊的歷史利潤率趨勢以及他們的長期目標，這樣我們
1:12:40
can get a sense of how pelocity margins change as it grows so the first thing that's apparent is that when you have
就能了解 Pelocity 的利潤率如何隨著成長而變化，首先顯而易見的是，當你有
1:12:49
stronger growth you tend to get higher margins you can see that when we have this acceleration and revenue growth you
更強勁的成長時，你往往會得到更高的利潤率，你可以看到當我們出現這種營收成長加速時，
1:12:56
get a big jump in say ebit down margins and same with the gross profit margins and the reason why that is is because
EBITDA 利潤率會大幅跳升，毛利率也是如此，原因在於
1:13:03
the business as it sells more products to the same customers there's usually not a lot of additional costs to
當企業向相同的客戶銷售更多產品時，通常不需要太多額外成本
1:13:10
implement their software which is why when we look over on the right at their long-term targets you can see that their
來導入他們的軟體，這就是為什麼當我們看右邊他們的長期目標時，你可以看到他們
1:13:17
long-term targets for both gross profit margins as well as eiton margins are a lot higher than the the current margin
對毛利率以及 EBITDA 利潤率的長期目標，都遠高於目前的
1:13:26
levels which indicates that's how their long-term targets are incorporating that expected margin expansion because that's
利潤率水平，這表明他們的長期目標是如何納入預期的利潤率擴張，因為那就是
1:13:35
how the business will grow we can also see over here for modeling purposes the specific cost items that they expect
企業成長的方式，我們還可以在這裡看到用於建模的特定成本項目，這些是他們預期
1:13:43
based on a target of a percentage of revenues and you can also see basically the trend has already been happening we
以營收的某個百分比來計算的，你也可以看到基本上這個趨勢已經在發生，我們
1:13:49
get that 68% 28% gross profit margins evit down margins going up to 69 32 so it's approaching their targets of 75 to
得到 68%、28% 的毛利率，EBITDA 利潤率上升到 69、32，所以它正接近他們 75 到
1:13:58
80% gross margins and 35 to 40% in EIT down margins so here's my forecast model for the margin side again the
80% 毛利率以及 35 到 40% EBITDA 利潤率的目標，所以這是我對利潤率這邊的預測模型，同樣的，
1:14:08
assumptions are in yellow we have our gross margins over here and then for the operating margin I have the individual
假設值以黃色標示，我們的毛利率在這裡，然後對於營業利潤率，我列出了各項
1:14:16
cost expenses so I'm just estimating that as a percentage of revenues and then using that to estimate the
成本費用，所以我只是將其估計為營收的百分比，然後用它來估計
1:14:23
operating margin so let's take it one at a time so the gross margin just basically forecast it to expand a little
營業利潤率 所以讓我們逐一來看 毛利率基本上預測會小幅擴張
1:14:31
bit so we're going from 68 to about 69 right it's assumption that they're get more profits as they sell new products
所以我們從68%上升到約69% 對吧 這是假設他們在銷售新產品時能獲得更多利潤
1:14:38
now on the expense side you'll notice that it's pretty much basically the general and
現在在費用方面 你會注意到主要是 General and
1:14:44
administrative that is going up to 17.8 and that's based off the current Year's guidance of what they expect and I
Administrative（一般及行政費用）上升到17.8 這是基於他們對今年的預期指引 而我
1:14:53
expect that to decline a little bit as a percentage of revenues to 17.5 so that decline means they're
預期這在營收占比會小幅下降到17.5 這個下降意味著他們
1:14:59
getting more efficient at using general and administrative expenses when we look at the research and development and
在使用一般及行政費用方面變得更有效率 當我們看研發（R&D）以及
1:15:05
sales and marketing basically I'm just keeping them unchanged because they need to use both of these expenses sales and
銷售和行銷費用時 我基本上只是讓它們保持不變 因為他們需要使用這兩項費用 銷售和
1:15:12
marketing and research and development to expand their business so no change as a percentage of revenues so when I put
行銷以及研發來擴展他們的業務 所以在營收占比上沒有變化 所以當我把
1:15:18
all those operating expenses together the model that is calculating how much total operating expense that sums up to
所有的營業費用加在一起 這個模型正在計算總營業費用加總是多少
1:15:26
when we remove that from the revenues we get our operating income and I can calculate the operating margin over here
當我們從營收中將其扣除 我們得到營業收入（Operating Income） 我可以在這裡計算營業利潤率
1:15:31
so a very slight increase in operating margins that's what the forecast here and again this 2024 base here is
所以營業利潤率有非常小幅的上升 這是這裡的預測 再次強調 這個2024年的基準
1:15:38
slightly lower than 2023 because they've already given a forecast or specific guidance of what they expect in 2024 so
比2023年略低 因為他們已經給出了2024年預期的具體指引 所以
1:15:46
I used that as the base level now from a capital use perspective what we're doing is we just want to figure out the
我將其用作基準水平 現在從資本使用的角度來看 我們要做的是找出
1:15:51
Investments that are required to grow the business and usually you can find this when we look through the
業務增長所需的投資 通常我們可以透過查看
1:15:56
managements plan in places like the investor presentations so here as an example I've pulled out a transcript
管理層的計劃來找到這點 例如在投資者簡報中 所以這裡作為一個例子 我提取了一份
1:16:03
from one of the earnings calls research and development is a really important investment for Paylocity and here
財報電話會議的文字記錄 研發是 Paylocity 非常重要的一項投資 在這裡
1:16:10
they've just said that they expect to keep research and development pretty consistent right in terms of an
他們只是說他們預期研發投資將保持相當一致 就投資角度而言
1:16:16
investment standpoint so we expect a pretty steady level of R&D investment so what they're saying is they want to keep
所以我們預期研發投資將維持在一個相當穩定的水平 所以他們的意思是 他們希望保持
1:16:24
their investments in research and development stable so that just means as they make new software they're going to
在研發上的投資穩定 這意味著當他們開發新軟體時 他們會
1:16:28
sell it and they want to grow it with revenues now over here when they look at what we expense versus capitalize all
銷售它 並希望隨著營收增長而增長 現在在這邊 當他們看哪些是費用化（expense）哪些是資本化（capitalize）時 所有
1:16:36
they're saying is just some of it's going to be allocated to the income statement when it's an expense versus
他們的意思是，其中一部分會在發生時認列為費用，出現在損益表上
1:16:41
capitalize meaning they're put it on the balance sheet so again they're just saying that split is roughly consistent
資本化則是指將其列在資產負債表上，所以他們再次強調這個比例大致上是穩定的
1:16:47
and stable so now here is our model for forecasting the Investments you can see that we have the research and
且保持穩定。那麼，這是我們預測投資的模型，你可以看到我們將研發費用
1:16:54
development over here split up between the capitalized and the expense so capitalized just means it's an addition
分為資本化與費用兩部分，所謂資本化是指它會作為一項
1:17:03
as an investment on the balance sheet so you can see this 52 million over here matches the addition over here so this
投資加到資產負債表上，你可以看到這裡的5,200萬與這裡的增加額相符，這就是
1:17:10
is the addition to the software asset now to forecast the software asset you can see we have the asset value over
軟體資產的增加。要預測軟體資產，你可以看到我們這裡有資產價值
1:17:19
here we're keeping it at 4% of revenues represents the additional investment into that software asset so then that is
我們將其維持在營收的4%，代表對該軟體資產的額外投資，然後將其
1:17:27
added to the prior year and then we just less the amortization which we have as an estimate here which just represents
加到前一年的數字上，接著我們再減去攤銷，我們在這裡做了一個估計，這代表了
1:17:35
like a wear and tear of software and then that's how we get to our final uh estimate for the uh software asset going
軟體的折舊耗損，我們就是這樣得出對未來軟體資產的最終估計
1:17:44
forward so that represents the capitalized portion of research and development so the expense portion of
這代表了研發的資本化部分，那麼研發的
1:17:51
the research and development we already estimated that when we were looking at at the margins so the expenses of the
費用部分，我們在看邊際利潤時已經估算過了，也就是公司的各項費用
1:17:57
business and so finally when we're looking at property and and Equipment over here so this is just like the
所以最後，當我們看這裡的不動產、廠房及設備，也就是公司擁有的
1:18:03
office stuff that they have we're also going to keep the additions to property and Equipment which is just like Capital
辦公設備等，我們也將維持對不動產、廠房及設備的新增投資，也就是資本支出
1:18:09
expenditures and we're going to keep it stable at about 2% revenues going forward and then we also minus the uh
並在未來將其穩定維持在約營收的2%，接著我們也減去預期的
1:18:17
expected depreciation so also wear and tear we're just keeping it stable so you can see the additions to property and
折舊，同樣也是折舊耗損，我們同樣保持其穩定，所以你可以看到不動產、廠房及設備的新增
1:18:24
equipment are basically just growing in line with revenues just like the additions to the investments in software
投資基本上只是隨著營收增長，就像對軟體資產的
1:18:31
as an asset so those are all the Investments you can see also that when we add up the total research and
投資新增一樣。這些都是所有的投資，你也可以看到當我們把總研發
1:18:38
development expenses and capitalized portion over here and we work it out as a percentage of Revenue we can see that
費用與這裡的資本化部分加總，並計算其占營收的百分比時，我們可以看到
1:18:44
as a whole research and development is stable as a percentage of Revenue so that's how we're modeling the
整體而言，研發占營收的比例是穩定的，這就是我們如何建模
1:18:52
Investments growing as the business grows so we're keeping it very simple here so now we can put this all together
投隨著業務增長而增長，所以我們在這裡保持非常簡單，那麼現在我們可以把這些都整合起來
1:18:58
into a model and there's going to be a little bit of tinkering and this is the financial magic of investing that goes
進入一個模型，這中間會有一些微調，而這就是投資背後的財務魔力
1:19:04
behind the scenes
在幕後運作
1:19:06
[Music]
[音樂]
1:19:27
it all comes together into an earnings statement forecast like this so let's see this built up so we have the
所有這些都整合成像這樣的損益表預測，讓我們看看它是如何建立的。我們有
1:19:33
recurring and other Revenue that's just our growth forecast for the Core Business there's this interest income on
經常性及其他營收，這就是我們對核心業務的增長預測。還有這筆客戶資金的利息收入，這是其他營收，
1:19:41
funds held for clients that's the other revenues so this is just the interest income that they get from withholding
這只是他們從代扣雇主薪資稅的現金所獲得的利息收入，他們從這筆現金賺取利息。
1:19:47
cash for payroll taxes for employers they get interest on that cash now that is going down because interest rates
這數字正在下降，因為 2024 年的利率非常高，所以我們預期它會下降，但整體營收增長良好。
1:19:57
were really high in 2024 and so we expect that to decline but overall revenues are growing nicely we've also
我們也用我們的毛利率預估來估計銷貨成本，我們可以計算出毛利，這就是
1:20:06
estimated the cost of goods sold with our gross margin forecast we can calculate the gross profit which is just
軟體產品的利潤。我們可以看到它也增長良好。接著是我們的營業費用，
1:20:13
the profit on the software product we can see that is also growing nicely as well and then we have our operating
我們有銷售及行銷費用、研發費用、一般行政費用，而這些營業費用
1:20:21
expenses we have our sales and marketing expense research and development General administrative and the operating
主要是隨著營收增長，他們正在利用所有這些來擴張業務，所以總的
1:20:27
expenses are just mostly growing with revenues they're using all of these to expand the business so the total
營業費用也在增長。因此，我們用毛利減去營業費用，這就得到了
1:20:33
operating expenses is growing as well so we take the gross profit minus the operating expenses and that gets us to
我們的營業利益，或稱稅前息前盈餘 (EBIT)，我們也可以看到稅前息前盈餘
1:20:41
our operating income or the earnings before interest and taxes and we can see also that the earnings before interest
也增長良好。然後我們有其他收入，那裡沒有預測，C 項減去它，得到
1:20:49
in taxes are also growing nicely as well then we got our other income there's no forecast C there minus that to get the
所得稅前利益，或稱稅前利益，然後我們減去稅務支出，這裡估計是 21% 的企業稅率，
1:20:56
income before income taxes or pre-tax income and then we minus the tax expense so estimating here a 21% corporate tax
這是美國的標準稅率，這就得到了淨利，或稱公司的盈餘，而這是最
1:21:05
rate that's standard for the us and that gets us to the net income or the earnings of the business and that's most
重要的。我們還有我們的稀釋後流通股數，稀釋後的意思是，它考慮了當他們用
1:21:12
important and we have our diluted shares outstanding so diluted just means it's taking into account when they pay
員工股票選擇權支付薪資時，會增加股數的情況，所以你可以看到稀釋後流通股數
1:21:19
employees with stock options that increases the number of shares so you can see that the uh diluted shares
也被預測將會增加。然後我們把這些放在一起，就得到我們的每股盈餘。
1:21:26
outstanding is also forecasted to increase as well so then we put that together we get our earnings per share
未流通股數也被預測將會增加，然後我們把這些放在一起，就得到我們的每股盈餘
1:21:32
forecast and that's the earnings for us as shareholders now here's where some tinkering is going on the adjusted
預測，這就是我們股東的獲利。現在，這裡有一些調整正在進行，那就是調整後的
1:21:39
earnings the adjusted operating income because stock-based compensation is a non-cash expense right
獲利，調整後的營業利益，因為股票薪酬是非現金費用，對吧？
1:21:46
you're paying in stock and so even though it's in the operating expenses probably here and here it's a bit like
你是用股票支付的，所以即使它列在營業費用裡，大概在這裡和這裡，這有點像
1:21:53
raising equity because the employees are technically buying shares and if you want to do some quick math you can see
籌集股本，因為技術上來說員工是在購買股票。如果你想快速計算一下，你可以看到
1:21:59
that we have this 4 and 152 over here that implies about 250 million in stock-based compensation for 2024 and so
我們在這裡有這個 4 和 152，這意味著 2024 年約有 2.5 億美元的股票薪酬，所以
1:22:07
we're adjusting that to remove the stock-based compensation and the reason for that is that gives us a cleaner look
我們正在調整它以移除股票薪酬，這樣做的原因是為了讓我們更清楚地看到
1:22:14
at the business earnings and same with the adjusted net income removing the stock based compensation and also the
公司的營運獲利，調整後淨利也是如此，移除股票薪酬，還有
1:22:21
adjusted earnings per share is also removing stock-based compensation now this adjusted earnings per share is the
調整後每股盈餘也是移除股票薪酬。現在，這個調整後每股盈餘對我們來說是
1:22:26
most important for us these are the earnings that we get as shareholders that also accounts for the increase in
最重要的，這就是我們作為股東所獲得的獲利，它也考慮了
1:22:34
shares and we don't use this regular EPS over here because it's double counting the stock based compensation it's both
股份的增加，而我們不使用這裡的常規每股盈餘，因為它對股票薪酬進行了重複計算，它同時
1:22:42
in the expenses somewhere in one of these expenses and it's also going into the shares as well so it's being double
出現在某項費用中，也計入股數裡，所以它在費用和股份中都被
1:22:48
counted as an expense and in the shares and that's why we adjust it to the adjusted earnings per share so we're
重複計算了，這就是為什麼我們要將其調整為調整後每股盈餘。所以我們
1:22:54
taking a few reasonable assumptions and turning that into an earnings forecast that's the output here we're estimating
採納一些合理的假設，並將其轉化為獲利預測，這就是這裡的輸出。我們估計
1:23:00
that uh pelocity will generate about 750 in earnings per share for fiscal 2026 and we're forecasting 2026 here is
Pelocity 在 2026 財年將產生約 7.5 美元的每股盈餘，我們預測的是 2026 年，是因為
1:23:09
because at this uh year is when we expect the interest income to start normalizing to a regular growth Trend
在這一年，我們預期利息收入將開始正常化，回到常規的成長趨勢。
1:23:17
again we'll use this number to Value the company [Music]
再次，我們將使用這個數字來為公司估值。[音樂]
1:23:27
all right do I still got you I remember when I used to work in a research team when any of us would get locked into
好的，我還有讓你跟上嗎？我記得以前在研究團隊工作時，當我們任何人陷入
1:23:32
Excel we'd always come out of the office and just be like in a days and you know we'd always make fun of people be like
Excel 的世界，我們總是走出辦公室，然後就像過了一整天一樣，你知道嗎？我們總是取笑別人，說
1:23:39
ah you know she's got the Excel eyes and so I promise though that this will pay off with real money when you invest
啊，你知道嗎，她有 Excel 眼。所以我保證，這將會在你投資時轉化為真金白銀。
1:23:45
takes a little bit of work but now that we got our forecast let's value this company so the keys to making a good
需要花一點功夫，但現在我們有了預測，讓我們來為這家公司估值。所以，做出一個好的估值的關鍵在於
1:23:51
Market valuation we've covered we have a good earnings forecast so we just did that now let's get the right comparable
我們已經探討過市場估值，也有了良好的盈利預測，那麼現在讓我們來找出正確的可比倍數
1:23:56
multiples that's how we can value the company and get the right price so now let's bring up the multiples so just
這樣我們才能為公司估值並得出正確的價格，所以現在讓我們來看看這些倍數，就像
1:24:02
like with the coffee shop selling the coffee shop I've brought up the comparable companies these are all the
買賣咖啡店一樣，我找來了可比公司，這些都是在股市上交易的
1:24:07
major public payroll and human resource companies trading on the stock market on the top here we have the PE multiples or
主要薪資處理與人力資源公司，在上方我們看到的是本益比或
1:24:15
price to earnings multiples NTM just means next 12 months so the multiple the price is a multiple of the next 12
市盈率倍數，NTM 代表未來12個月（Next 12 Months），所以這個倍數，股價是未來12個月
1:24:23
months earnings so we have a range of multiples from 2010 to 2023 so about 10 years this
盈利的倍數，我們有一個從2010年到2023年的倍數範圍，大約10年，這
1:24:30
gives us an indication of what investors are willing to pay for similar companies in the past now there's already a big
讓我們了解投資者在過去願意為類似公司支付什麼價格。現在，這裡已經有一個很大的
1:24:38
range in terms of the low median and high and so what's going on here if we just look at the multiples we can see
範圍，涵蓋了低值、中位數和高值，那麼這是怎麼回事呢？如果我們只看這些倍數，我們可以看到
1:24:45
that these payroll companies we got pay law City and paycom as well as these other companies over here seridian payor
這些薪資公司，我們有 Paylocity 和 Paycom，以及這裡的其他公司，像 Ceridian、Paycor、
1:24:53
workday these are faster growing smaller companies so they have less earnings and because they're faster
Workday，這些是成長較快、規模較小的公司，所以它們的盈利較少，正因為它們成長
1:25:00
growing they have really high multiples we have our Cloud payroll providers here and these are the Enterprise Cloud
較快，它們的倍數非常高。我們這裡有雲端薪資供應商，然後是企業級雲端
1:25:07
payroll providers here and then that leaves ADP and paychecks over here and so you can notice that their valuations
薪資供應商，接著剩下的是 ADP 和 Paychex，你可以注意到它們的估值
1:25:16
are actually a lot more stable because they're bigger they have stable earnings and they have more investors they have a
其實穩定得多，因為它們規模更大，盈利穩定，且擁有更多投資者，它們有
1:25:24
tier valuation range now just so we can normalize all of this let's take a look at the the PEG ratio so that's just the
一個層次化的估值範圍。為了讓我們能將這一切標準化，讓我們來看看 PEG 比率，這只是
1:25:31
price to earnings multiple relative to the growth estimate in order to normalize the price to earnings ratio we
本益比相對於增長預估的比率，為了標準化市盈率，我們
1:25:38
can see that if we look at ADP and paychecks that tightens up to one to about two and down here as a median it's
可以看到，如果我們看 ADP 和 Paychex，它們的倍數範圍會收緊到大約 1 到 2，而在下方的中位數則是
1:25:48
.9 to 1.2 now when we look at it from a peg perspective we can see that actually
0.9 到 1.2。現在當我們從 PEG 的角度來看，我們可以看到實際上
1:25:54
ADP and paychecks actually get a premium valuation when we normalize for growth and again it's because they're larger
ADP 和 Paychex 在為增長進行標準化後，其實獲得了溢價估值，這是因為它們規模
1:26:01
they're more stable that tends to attract more stable investors so you get a more premium valuation now to hone in
更大、更穩定，往往能吸引更穩健的投資者，所以能獲得更高的估值。現在，為了鎖定
1:26:08
on the right multiple for pelocity I would say let's keep it fairly conservative keep it at maybe 25 to 30
Pelocity 的正確倍數，我會說讓我們保持相對保守，也許設定在 25 到 30 倍。
1:26:15
times we don't want to give it a premium when ADP and paychecks of a premium so about 25 to 30 as a price to earnings
我們不打算給予溢價，當ADP和薪資支票有溢價時，大約是25到30倍的市盈率
1:26:23
multiple and then from a peg perspective I would say we can use a group's multiple 0.9
倍數，然後從PEG的角度來看，我會說我們可以使用群組的倍數0.9
1:26:29
1.2 again we don't want to give it a premium but just give it in line with the group and we can use those multiples
到1.2，同樣地，我們不打算給予溢價，只是讓它與群組一致，我們可以使用這些倍數
1:26:35
now to price our new pelocity earnings forecast so here's a summary of some valuation calculations let's just focus
現在來為我們新的PEG估值預測定價，這裡是一些估值計算的摘要，讓我們先專注
1:26:41
over here on the base so the base case is we forecasted 7.5 in earnings per share for FY
在這個基礎案例上，基礎案例是我們預測2026財年的每股盈餘為7.5
1:26:49
2026 and you can see that's reflecting from an earnings per share perspective of about 133% growth now I'm going to
美元，你可以看到這反映了每股盈餘約133%的增長，現在我打算
1:26:56
use a 25 multiple so that's at a low end of PE using the 80P paychecks range and 1.2 which is about middle of the line
使用25倍的倍數，這是在PE的低端，使用80P薪資支票範圍和1.2倍，這大約是中間值
1:27:06
from a peg perspective when I take the average of those two methodologies of calculating the valuation so just the
從PEG的角度來看，當我取這兩種估值計算方法的平均值時，僅僅是
1:27:13
multiple times the earnings per share or the peg times the growth to get to the expected PE multiple and then applying
倍數乘以每股盈餘或PEG乘以增長率來得到預期的PE倍數，然後將其
1:27:19
that as well to the 7.5 earnings per share that's how I get these two valuation forecast and because they're
應用到7.5美元的每股盈餘，這就是我得到這兩個估值預測的方式，因為它們
1:27:26
slightly different I'm just going to take the average that works out to about $150 a share as a base case now the nice
略有不同，我只取平均值，大約是每股150美元作為基礎案例，現在使用
1:27:34
thing about using a forecast is now we can start to think of different scenarios so I have a bull case of 8.6
預測的好處是我們可以開始思考不同的情景，所以我有一個樂觀案例是每股盈餘8.6
1:27:40
in earnings per share that represents a higher growth rate of about 18% and then from a base perspective 6.9 in earnings
美元，這代表了約18%的更高增長率，然後從基礎案例來看，每股盈餘6.9
1:27:48
per share which is a lot slower in growth rate of about 8% so from the bull case perspective we use a higher
美元，其增長率慢得多，約為8%，所以從樂觀案例的角度，我們使用更高的
1:27:54
multiple 31 times so that's the higher end of the range of the ADP paychecks range not at their Highs but a high from
倍數31倍，這是在ADP薪資支票範圍的高端，不是最高點，但從中位數來看是高的，我打算
1:28:02
a median perspective and I'm going to use the higher group Peg so about 1.7 times and you can see actually here the
使用較高的群組PEG，大約是1.7倍，你可以看到實際上這裡的
1:28:09
price works out to about similar of about 270 per share now from a downside case now we're just looking at low
價格大約是相似的，約每股270美元，現在從悲觀案例來看，現在我們只看低
1:28:17
multiples I'm going to got that 25 times is the lowest multiple that's been recorded for the group 0.9 is also a low
倍數，我打算採用25倍是該群組記錄的最低倍數，0.9也是該群組
1:28:23
Peg for the group group as well of course that's a pretty dramatic decline in price getting to a seven times
的低PEG，當然，這會導致價格大幅下跌，達到7倍
1:28:29
multiple so honestly that is pretty low but again I'm just taking the average of those two so now I got an estimated bare
的倍數，老實說這相當低，但我還是取這兩者的平均值，所以我得到一個預估的熊市
1:28:35
case or downside case of 110 for the stock so now the nice thing is we have these valuation scenarios using
該股票的悲觀情境或下行情況為 110，那麼現在的好處是我們使用了這些估值情境，採用
1:28:43
different earnings forecasts now we know that the stock price should have a range of between 110 and 270 as a per share
不同的盈利預測。現在我們知道股價的合理範圍應在每股 110 到 270 元之間，
1:28:52
basis now there's a lot of different num going on so we can actually start to put this together into one value and to do
現在有許多不同的數字在運作，因此我們可以實際將其整合為一個數值，為了
1:28:58
that we can use probability so we use something that's called expected value really what we're doing is just basic
做到這一點，我們可以使用機率。我們使用的是所謂的期望值，我們真正做的只是基本的
1:29:05
mathematical concept of taking the expected gain or loss times the probability to get the expected value so
數學概念，將預期的獲利或虧損乘以機率，以得出期望值，所以
1:29:12
what's going on is if we just apply an estimated probability to each scenario we can work out the expected value of
實際情況是，如果我們對每個情境應用一個估計的機率，我們就可以計算出這些不同
1:29:18
these different price scenarios so we have our price over here of 150 that's the current price at the time we have
價格情境的期望值。所以我們在這裡的價格是 150，這是我們當時的現價；我們的
1:29:26
our base scenario which was about 151 so that works out to about a dollar loss no big deal but let's say that
基本情境大約是 151，所以這大約會造成 1 美元的虧損，沒什麼大不了的，但假設這
1:29:34
works out to about a 16% 60% probability works out to netive -1 and expected
大約造成了 16% 的跌幅，60% 的機率會導致淨值 -1 的
1:29:40
value now for the upside we expect 269 and so the difference is at about A7 gain let's say that we have a 20%
期望值。現在對於上行情境，我們預期是 269，所以差異大約是 117 元的獲利，假設我們有 20% 的
1:29:50
probability of that high growth scenario that works out to an expect value of 23 from the gain perspective now from the
機率出現那個高成長情境，從獲利的角度來看，這會得出 23 元的期望值。現在從
1:29:57
downside we have a 110 price that works out to a 42 loss multiply that by 20%
下行情境來看，我們有 110 的價格，這會造成 42 元的虧損，將其乘以 20% 的
1:30:05
probability gets us to an $8 expected value loss now you can see that all adds up to 100% probability so we've applied
機率，會得到 8 美元的期望值虧損。現在你可以看到這些加總起來是 100% 的機率，所以我們已經將
1:30:13
the probabilities to each different scenario now another way to look at this want to think about it from like a a
機率應用到每個不同的情境。現在，另一種看待這個問題的方式，如果想從
1:30:20
gambling perspective is we can look at it from an odds ratio perspective so we have our expected gain before
賭博的角度來思考，我們可以從賠率比的角度來看。所以我們有在機率估計之前的
1:30:27
probability and our and our loss before the probability estimate and then that gives us a way to look at the win loss
預期獲利，以及在機率估計之前的虧損，然後這給了我們一種看待輸贏
1:30:35
ratio so that ratio between 177 and 42 works out to a 2.8 win loss ratio that gives us a sense of risk reward that we
比率的方式。所以 177 和 42 之間的比率，得出 2.8 的輸贏比率，這給了我們一種風險回報的感覺，我們
1:30:45
can apply our probability estimate towards so to add all those things up together we add up the 23 the one and
可以將我們的機率估計應用於此。所以為了將所有這些東西加總在一起，我們將 23、1 和
1:30:52
the and the minus 8 you add that to the 150 stock price that gets us to an expected value of 166 per share or 9%
以及 -8 加起來，再將其加到 150 的股價上，這會讓我們得到每股 166 元的期望值，或 9% 的
1:31:01
return so the value of doing all this is we've forecasted all the different scenarios
報酬率。所以做這一切的價值在於，我們已經預測了所有不同的情境。
1:31:08
for earnings as well as valuation and so now we have a real good sense of the potential price of the stock and while
對於獲利以及估值，現在我們對股票的潛在價格有了很好的概念，而
1:31:14
we can't predict the future because we've Incorporated probability and the different ranges that can occur this
我們無法預測未來，但因為我們納入了機率以及可能發生的不同區間，這個
1:31:21
expected value assuming of course a probability in our forecasts are reasonably correct if that is a lot
預期值——當然前提是我們預測中的機率是合理正確的——如果這個數值
1:31:27
higher than the current price we are just more likely than not to make money so when you learn to value stocks
遠高於目前的股價，我們賺錢的可能性就比較高。所以當你學會正確地評估股票
1:31:33
correctly you'll start to understand stock prices a lot better you can see our scenario range over here we got 110
價值，你會開始更了解股價。你可以看到我們在這裡的情境區間，我們有 110
1:31:40
and 270 up here actually describes pelocity stock price really well for the past four years what that's telling us
和上面的 270，這實際上非常準確地描述了 Pelocity 過去四年的股價。這告訴我們
1:31:47
is that this level over here this 270 is and this 110 levels are expectations foray Lo City's earnings growth there
的是，這裡的這個水準，這個 270 和這個 110 的水準，代表了對 Pelocity 獲利成長的預期。
1:31:55
was expected a very low growth around 2020 when the stock price was 110 and of course very high growth expectations in
在股價為 110 時，大約在 2020 年，預期成長非常低，當然到了 2021 年則有非常高的成長預期。
1:32:03
2021 now but because pelocity never exceeded that optimistic scenario that we priced in to that 270 Mark which is
但因為 Pelocity 從未超過我們定價在 270 這個價位的樂觀情境，
1:32:13
why the stock price never went beyond that and likewise the stock price never even clums close to this area over here
所以股價從未超過那個價位；同樣地，股價也從未接近過這裡的 110 區域，
1:32:18
of 110 because the growth expectations never got even close to our very pessimistic scenario
因為成長預期甚至從未接近我們非常悲觀的情境。
1:32:24
and so that 166 price level over here because it takes into account these different scenarios the price also
所以這裡的 166 價格水準，因為它考慮了這些不同的情境，股價也
1:32:32
doesn't really get below that level because it's the fair price so when it does trade below like over here and over
不會真的跌破那個水準，因為那是合理的價格。所以當它確實跌破，比如說在這裡和這裡，
1:32:38
over here because it's considered cheap the stock price is now trading below what the company is actually performing
因為它被認為便宜，現在的股價交易低於公司實際的
1:32:45
at it gets bought up by investors and that's how valuations work in the market and that's why valuation is really
表現，它就會被投資人買進，這就是市場上的估值運作方式，這也是為什麼估值真的
1:32:51
powerful so the best thing about doing good valuation work work is that now that we know that a good price at that
很強大。所以做好估值工作最棒的一點是，現在我們知道在那個
1:32:57
point in time is 166 but buying at any point below would have been a good chance of making money and because now
時間點的好價格是 166，但在任何低於這個價格的點買進，都有很高的機會賺錢。而且因為現在
1:33:05
we know how to Value optimistic scenarios we know that prices basically when it gets anywhere close to that 270
我們知道如何評估樂觀情境，我們知道價格基本上當它接近那個 270
1:33:11
level is probably too expensive so we it's it makes it less likely to make money and so that's the benefit of
水準時，可能就太貴了，所以我們——這讓賺錢的可能性變低，這就是
1:33:18
buying at good prices it means you can just sit back and wait and so as long as a company grows its earnings you make
在好價格買進的好處。這意味著你可以靜靜等待，只要公司獲利成長，你就賺錢。
1:33:24
money and it truly becomes a passive way to multiply your money you really don't even need to look at the market price
金錢，它真正成為一種讓你錢滾錢的被動方式，你甚至真的不需要再看市場價格
1:33:31
anymore if you've done good valuation work so what if we actually wanted to buy at spikes like here before this
了，只要你做好了良好的估值工作。所以，如果我們真的想在像這裡這樣的尖峰之前買進，也就是在這波
1:33:39
uptrend here or we want to just buy it before we get another Spike over here and it's likely going to keep going up
上漲趨勢之前，或者我們想在下一次飆升之前買進，而且它看起來會繼續上漲
1:33:45
here how do we actually identify those opportunities and we can if we start to really pay attention to Market
的話，我們要如何實際識別這些機會？我們是可以做到的，如果我們開始真正關注市場
1:33:51
expectations and that's when you can actually start to make some serious money and that's what we're going to
預期，那就是你真正開始賺大錢的時候，而這就是我們接下來要
1:33:55
cover in the next section have you ever noticed that
探討的內容。你有沒有注意到
1:34:05
sometimes a stock just all of a sudden the stock just starts popping off and the price just tis off right and you
有時候一檔股票突然就開始暴衝，價格直接飆升，而你
1:34:11
wish you could just catch that big move over here and ride that rocket chip which is honestly one of the best
真希望能夠抓住那波大行情，搭上那趟火箭列車，老實說，這真的是世界上最棒的
1:34:15
feelings in the world and so that's where we're putting everything in fundamental analysis together and I'm
感覺之一。所以，這就是我們將所有基本面分析結合在一起的地方，而我
1:34:21
going to show you how you can catch these moves and here we're starting to really Crack the Code of stocks now
要向你展示如何抓住這些行情，現在我們開始真正破解股票的密碼了。我們
1:34:27
we've covered the foundation which is one the fundamentals so understanding how to pick companies with growing
已經涵蓋了基礎，也就是基本面之一，也就是了解如何挑選獲利成長的公司，並對其進行估值，估算出買賣的價格點。在此之上的第三層是預期，
1:34:32
earnings to its valuation estimating the price points to buy and sell the third layer on top of this is expectations so
也就是了解如何識別市場預期的變化，我們將在這裡探討，因為當
1:34:41
that's understanding how to identify change in Market expectations and we're going to cover that here because when
你把這三樣東西結合在一起時，它們會協同運作，讓你找到賺錢的機會、挑選股票，
1:34:47
you put all three things together they work together so that you can find Opportunities to make money pick stocks
這就是避險基金在做的事。所以，讓我們回到 Pity（應為 Palantir 或特定公司）的股價與每股盈餘圖。提醒一下，黑色線是
1:34:54
and this is what hedge funds do so let's go back to pity's price and earnings per share chart it's a reminder the black is
每股盈餘，綠色線是每股價格。所以現在這裡出現了很大的背離，對吧？你看到
1:35:00
the earnings per share and the green is the price per share so now there's this big disconnect over here right you see
每股盈餘持續上升，但股價卻一直在下跌。所以這裡發生的事情是
1:35:07
the earnings per share continues to go up whereas the price has been going downwards so what's going on here is
市場預期正在改變，市場不再認為 Palantir 在未來是一個強勁的成長者。所以
1:35:14
that market expectations are changing the market does not see pelocity as a strong grower anymore in the future so
檢查市場預期的一種方法是查看分析師的預估。這些是研究
1:35:21
one way you can check Market expectations is by looking at analyst estimates what these are are research
分析師對 Palantir 每股盈餘的預估。所以你可以看到我們有 2025 財年、2026 財年和 2027 財年（原文未完整，此處依上下文推斷）
1:35:26
analyst estimates of payo cities earnings per share so you can see we have fiscal 2025 fiscal 2026 and fiscal
分析師對 Paylocity 每股盈餘的預估。所以你可以看到我們有 2025 財年、2026 財年和 2027 財年
1:35:33
2027 these are all forecasts of pay law cities earnings per share so what do you notice well they're all going down and
2027 這些都是 Paylocity 每股收益的預測，那麼你注意到什麼？嗯，它們都在下降
1:35:41
so something changed in this time period in 2023 and again it looks like they're all picking up again so something also
所以在 2023 年這個時間點發生了一些變化，而且看起來它們在 2024 年底又再次回升，所以同樣地
1:35:49
changed at the end of 2024 and you can see from the same time period of the stock chart you can see the stock price
在 2024 年底也發生了一些變化，你可以從同一時間段的股價圖表中看到，股價
1:35:58
actually picked up on this earlier so right at the end of 2022 or about mid 2022 the stock price started to Trend
其實更早就開始回升了，大約在 2022 年底或 2022 年中，股價就開始
1:36:05
downwards as well and so then the stock started to move down as estimates came down and the high point of course was
趨勢向下，隨著預估下降，股價也開始走低，當然高點是
1:36:11
our Peak valuation estimate so that decline in price came primarily from a decline in valuation this is the price
我們的峰值估值預估，所以價格下跌主要來自估值下降，這是 Paylocity
1:36:18
to earnings multiple of pelocity stock you can see it's come way down and part of the reason of course why it's come
股票的本益比，你可以看到它大幅下降，當然部分原因是
1:36:24
down is because the starting point was very high this was a 95 times multiple and see the multiple has now come down
起點非常高，當時是 95 倍本益比，現在本益比已經下降到
1:36:29
to a more reasonable level of about 25 or 28 and so the question is why did the valuation come down so what we're going
更合理的水準，大約 25 或 28 倍，那麼問題是為什麼估值會下降？所以我們接下來
1:36:36
to do is we're going to put on our fundamental research hat again one more time and figure out by looking through
要做的，是再次戴上我們的基本面研究帽，透過檢視
1:36:42
the earnings calls and transcripts to figure out what's changing Market expectations
財報電話會議和逐字稿，來找出是什麼改變了市場預期
1:36:54
so it becomes pretty clear that two things are changing in the payroll and HR space the first thing is that
所以很清楚的是，薪資和人力資源領域發生了兩件事，第一件事是
1:37:00
employment growth has been slowing of course when there's less employees overall it means that there's less
就業增長一直在放緩，當然，當整體員工數量減少時，意味著薪資公司
1:37:06
revenues for payroll companies because they get they they charge based on the number of employees second is that
的營收會減少，因為他們是根據員工人數收費的，第二點是
1:37:11
there's been an end of IRS tax benefits so there was a lot of covid related employer tax benefits those were gone
國稅局的稅收優惠已經結束，之前有很多與疫情相關的雇主稅收優惠，這些在
1:37:18
after a couple years so there's just less filings for payrolls to do payroll companies to do so that also means means
幾年後就沒有了，所以薪資公司需要處理的申報案件變少了，這也意味著
1:37:23
less revenues so that just translated into into a slower growth in revenues which of course translates into a lower
營收減少，這就導致了營收增長放緩，當然這也轉化為
1:37:30
earnings estimate throughout 2023 and this of course was also confirmed by the company pelocity itself so this is from
2023 年整體較低的收益預估，當然這也由 Paylocity 公司本身所證實，這是來自
1:37:39
an earnings release in August 2024 they provide an outlook for their fiscal 2025 guidance so the upcoming year and now
2024 年 8 月的財報發布，他們提供了 2025 財年的展望，也就是接下來的一年，現在
1:37:47
they expect revenues to grow at about 8% rate remember they were used to targeting 20% type growth rate so it's a
他們預期營收將以約 8% 的速度增長，記得他們過去目標是 20% 左右的增長率，所以這是一個
1:37:55
much slower growth rate and so it's reflected in the company's Outlook itself and so that's the reason why
成長率慢得多，因此反映在公司的展望本身，這就是為什麼
1:38:01
analyst estimates came down you can see back in October 2023 they were expecting about $9 a share in EPS for
分析師的預估下調了，你可以看到在2023年10月，他們預期2026年的每股盈餘（EPS）大約是9美元
1:38:10
2026 that represents about a 30% growth rate year-over-year and then the new estimates in October 2024 they're
這代表著年增率約30%，而到了2024年10月的新預估，他們
1:38:18
expecting a $7 in earnings per share which reflects about an 8% growth rate so it's very similar to the new outlook
預期每股盈餘為7美元，這反映了約8%的成長率，所以這與新的成長展望非常相似
1:38:27
for growth and the 2025 estimate of course was also lowered as well so now that you understand what's driving
當然，2025年的預估也下調了，所以既然你了解了是什麼在驅動
1:38:35
expectations you can then start to pay attention to the signs that could change these Market expectations so that's the
這些預期，你就可以開始留意那些可能改變這些市場預期的跡象，那就是
1:38:42
signal so the key to finding opportunities from an expectation perspective is pretty simple all we're
信號。所以，從預期的角度來尋找機會的關鍵很簡單，我們要做的
1:38:48
doing is just looking for change that's not priced into the market yet so one easy way is just to pay attention to
只是尋找市場尚未反映在價格中的變化。一個簡單的方法就是留意
1:38:54
what's going on with other companies now here's paychecks this is one of the larger companies in the space you can
其他公司正在發生什麼事。這裡是Paychex，這是該領域中較大的公司之一，你可以
1:39:00
see starting around August 2024 the stock really started to come up and there's this big jump over here which
看到從2024年8月左右開始，股價真的開始上漲，然後在這裡有一個大跳躍
1:39:09
was the earnings release you can see the stock price jumped and then just kept going up so what's going on is the
那是財報發布的時候，你可以看到股價跳升，然後持續上漲。所以市場正在
1:39:14
market is starting to price something in the price moving up that is actually a pretty clear signal so what was going on
開始將某些事情反映在價格中，價格上漲這件事本身就是一個相當明確的信號。那麼當時發生了什麼事
1:39:20
when we look into the actual earnings release of paycheck we can see that one they reported pretty good earnings they
當我們查看Paychex的實際財報時，我們可以看到他們公布的盈餘相當不錯，他們
1:39:25
reported $16 in EPS that was better than estimates for a114 so they beat by about 2 cents that just says the business is
公布的每股盈餘是1.16美元，比預估的1.14美元要好，所以他們超出了預期約2美分，這只說明了該業務的
1:39:34
performing better than expected Revenue growth also accelerated from 7% from 5% in the prior quarter so that's an
表現比預期要好。營收成長也從前一季的5%加速到7%，所以這是
1:39:41
improvement in the growth rate and guidance is for 6 to 75% Revenue growth for fiscal 2025 also
成長率的改善。而對2025會計年度的營收成長指引是6%到7.5%，同樣
1:39:49
an acceleration from the prior year of about 5% so this is a very large company in the space what they're saying is that
相較於前一年約5%的成長率有所加速。所以這是該領域中一個非常大的公司，他們所說的是
1:39:56
there's very clear signs of improving Revenue growth so this may be happening for other companies in the space as well
營收成長改善的跡象非常明確，所以該領域的其他公司可能也正在發生同樣的情況。
1:40:02
now we can confirm this by looking at other data points this is the payroll numbers so this is the number employees
現在我們可以透過查看其他數據點來確認這一點。這是薪資數據，也就是美國的
1:40:09
employment in the us and we're looking at the year-over-year change so just looking at growth you can see it's been
員工就業人數，我們看的是年增率的變化。所以只看成長率，你可以看到它一直...
1:40:15
slowing all year from 2023 into 2024 but it looks like it's starting to stabilize so it's not going as steep the
從2023年到2024年全年都在放緩，但看起來開始趨於穩定，所以沒有那麼陡峭
1:40:23
year-over-year trends seem to be stabilizing which indicates that maybe employment trends are actually getting
年同比趨勢似乎正在穩定，這表明就業趨勢可能實際上正在改善
1:40:28
better which of course would help payroll companies another way to check is to start just paying attention to
這當然會幫助薪資處理公司，另一種檢查方式是開始留意
1:40:34
what management is saying so this is a transcript of pelocity at a conference back in September of 2024 they're saying
管理層在說什麼，這是2024年9月某場會議的Pelocity轉錄內容，他們表示
1:40:42
that they want to get back to a beat and raise Cadence what that means is they want to be able to beat analyst
他們想要回到「超越預期並上調」的節奏，意思是他們希望能夠超越分析師
1:40:49
estimates and also raise their guidance or their Outlook that's what beaten rais means and they think that if we execute
的預估，同時上調他們的指引或展望，這就是「超越並上調」的意思，他們認為如果我們執行得
1:40:57
well allows us to do that based on the guidance that we provided so they basically are saying that we can
好，基於我們提供的指引，這讓我們能夠做到，所以他們基本上是在說我們可以
1:41:02
probably beat estimates and raise our guidance they're saying that we can do better than what everyone is expecting
可能超越預估並上調指引，他們是在說我們可以做得比所有人預期的更好
1:41:07
and finally just looking at pity stock price itself so you can see around this time period as well pelocity stock price
最後，只看Pity的股價本身，你可以看到在這段時間附近，Pelocity的股價
1:41:14
has also been trending up into their earnings release as well so the market is probably picking something up and
也在他們財報發布前呈上升趨勢，所以市場可能察覺到了一些東西
1:41:20
again we know that the market can pick up things pretty fast so that's why it can be useful as a signal so we
我們再次知道市場可以非常快地察覺到事情，所以這就是為什麼它可以作為一個有用的信號
1:41:26
recognize a change that looks like Revenue growth is getting better than expected it might not be pric into the
我們察覺到一個變化，看起來營收增長比預期更好，可能還沒有反映在股價上
1:41:31
market so we can probably make money from this and that's where we get into the setup okay so the key to a good
所以我們可能可以從中賺錢，這就是我們進入佈局的地方，好的佈局的關鍵在於
1:41:38
setup is to figure out what the market is pricing in and then pricing the new change and see what the market is
弄清楚市場正在反映什麼，然後反映這個新的變化，並看看市場遺漏了什麼
1:41:44
missing we first have to estimate the change ourselves so here are the signals that we see one we see that employment
我們首先必須自己估計這個變化，所以以下是我們看到的信號：一、我們看到就業
1:41:49
growth is stabilizing two we see the headwinds are passing from the covid tax benefits it seems like growth is
增長正在趨於穩定；二、我們看到來自新冠疫情稅收優惠的逆風正在過去，看起來薪資處理公司的
1:41:55
improving for payroll companies and third we see from the company himself saying that there's a potential raise in
增長正在改善；第三，我們從公司本身看到，他們表示有潛在上調
1:42:01
their guidance or their Outlook management is hinting at it so that all points to better Revenue growth so what
他們的指引或展望的可能，管理層正在暗示這一點，所以這一切都指向更好的營收增長，所以我們
1:42:08
we do is we just go back to our model and start to update our earnings forecast so this is updated for the 2024
所做的就是回到我們的模型，並開始更新我們的盈利預測，這是針對2024年實際數據的更新
1:42:14
actual so now we're forecasting earnings Beyond and say if we forecast some improvement instead of that 8% let's
所以現在我們在預測2024年以後的盈利，假設我們預測了一些改善，而不是那個8%，讓我們
1:42:22
forecast 9% % for fiscal 2025 and we forecast a little bit of acceleration for the next couple years just showing
我們預測 2025 財年將增長 9%，並且我們預測未來幾年會有小幅加速，這只是展示
1:42:31
what can happen if Trends start to improve so now we can forecast that pelocity might probably achieve
如果趨勢開始改善會發生什麼，所以現在我們可以預測 Pelocity 可能會在
1:42:39
$74 in earnings per share by fiscal 2026 and so we have stronger earnings growth
2026 財年達到每股 74 美元的盈利，因此我們有更強的盈利增長
1:42:45
then we can compare our forcasts to the current estimates to see if the market is pricing it in so this is the current
然後我們可以將我們的預測與當前的估計進行比較，以查看市場是否已將其定價進去，這是截至
1:42:52
an forecast in October 24 before the earnings release you can see that
2024 年 10 月盈利發布前的當前預測，你可以看到
1:42:57
they're estimating about an 8% growth for fiscal 2026 now let's look at our new forecast based on our model we've
他們預計 2026 財年增長約 8%，現在讓我們看看基於我們模型的新預測，我們
1:43:05
estimated that it pay elocity could grow at about 11% so a slight raise $714 from the $6.95 that the analysts
估計 Paylocity 可能增長約 11%，所以從分析師預期的 6.95 美元小幅上調至 7.14 美元
1:43:15
are expecting so we're expecting improving growth that's not reflected in the estimates so that's a sign that the
我們預期增長將會改善，這並未反映在估計中，因此這是一個跡象，表明
1:43:22
market has not not yet priced in this change now it might not seem like much but this is enough to make money because
市場尚未將此變化定價進去。現在這看起來可能不多，但這足以賺錢，因為
1:43:29
stronger growth is definitely going to change Market expectation it'll bring them up which means a higher stock price
更強的增長絕對會改變市場預期，將其提升，這意味著更高的股價
1:43:35
and of course we got to Value it so let's go back to EV valuation perspective we have photies price to
當然，我們必須對其進行估值，所以讓我們回到企業價值 (EV) 估值的角度，我們有 Paylocity 的股價
1:43:41
earnings multiple over here in the blue as well as some other their other peers we got paycom and we got ADP and
盈利倍數在這裡的藍色部分，以及一些其他同業，我們有 Paycom，我們有 ADP 和
1:43:47
paychecks over here so you can see that pelocity as well as paycom are both trading below the ADP and paychecks
Paychex 在這裡，所以你可以看到 Pelocity 以及 Paycom 的交易倍數都低於 ADP 和 Paychex
1:43:54
multiple pity is 27 versus 28 29 for ADP and paychecks so of course the valuation is reflecting a lower expectation for
的倍數。Pity 是 27 倍，而 ADP 和 Paychex 是 28 到 29 倍，所以當然，估值反映了較低的增長
1:44:03
growth so now when you think about it pity's valuation is arguably cheap here it's trading at a discount number one
預期。所以現在當你思考時，Pity 的估值在這裡可以說是便宜的，它以折扣價交易，第一
1:44:10
and two if pelocity can grow at 8 or even 9% versus the 6 to 7 and a half% for paychecks it can probably trade at
點，第二，如果 Pelocity 能增長 8% 甚至 9%，而 Paychex 是 6% 到 7.5%，它可能至少
1:44:18
least at the same multiple as ADP and paychecks maybe even higher because the growth rate is higher so there's an
以與 ADP 和 Paychex 相同的倍數交易，甚至可能更高，因為增長率更高，所以有
1:44:26
opportunity for valuation to start coming up so now we can do some back out of the envelope math to estimate where
一個讓估值開始上升的機會。所以現在我們可以做一些粗略的計算，來估計
1:44:33
the stock can trade after earnings once we have a change in expectations so we have our estimate of $714 for fiscal
一旦預期發生變化，盈利發布後股價可能交易的位置。我們對 2026 財年
1:44:41
2026 our new forecast with better growth we have a 28 times multiple that's the same multiple as paychecks and ADP so we
的估計是 7.14 美元，這是我們基於更好增長的新預測，我們使用 28 倍的倍數，這與 Paychex 和 ADP 相同，所以我們
1:44:49
assume that pay pelocity can trade in line with its peers 714 * 28 multiple equals a $200 stock
假設 Paylocity 的股價能與同業看齊，714 乘以 28 倍本益比等於每股 200 美元
1:44:58
which represents a 15% upside from the current stock price of $170 at the time so that's a 15% upside
這代表相對於當時股價 170 美元有 15% 的上漲空間，所以是 15% 的上漲空間
1:45:06
from the earnings release alone right so this is our investment case going into the earnings release we have a $200
僅從財報發布來看，對吧？所以這是我們在財報發布前的投資論點，我們的目標價是 200 美元
1:45:11
Target which represents a 15% upside from the current $170 price and that's based on our fundamental forecast for
相對於目前 170 美元的價格有 15% 的上漲空間，而這是基於我們對營收成長的基本面預測
1:45:20
Revenue growth to improve from 8 % to 9% for fiscal 2025 so that's a fundamental reason and because of that acceleration
在 2025 財年從 8% 改善至 9%，所以這是基本面原因，而因為這項加速
1:45:29
we think that estimates should go from that 695 level to get to that 714 level for fiscal 2026 based on our forecast so
我們認為預估值應該從 695 的水準上升至 2026 財年的 714 水準，基於我們的預測，所以
1:45:38
the market is not pricing that in from an expectation standpoint now because of the higher earnings estimates we believe
市場目前從預期角度尚未反映這一點。現在，由於更高的盈餘預估，我們相信
1:45:45
the pelocity is multiple should rise from its 27 level to at least 28 or even higher at 30 which is the same level as
Paylocity 的本益比應該從 27 倍上升至至少 28 倍，甚至更高來到 30 倍，這與
1:45:54
ADP and paychecks or higher assuming the multiple can expand because its growth expectations are now higher than those
ADP 和 Paychex 相同或更高，假設本益比能夠擴張，因為其成長預期現在高於這兩家
1:46:01
two companies and then when we think about it from a risk perspective the downside of 695 which is the current
公司，然後當我們從風險角度思考時，695 的下跌風險，也就是目前的
1:46:07
fiscal 2026 estimate if we use a low multiple of 24 times which is what it was trading at a couple weeks before
2026 財年預估值，如果我們使用 24 倍的低本益比，也就是幾週前
1:46:15
this time we get to about a $167 Target which is just a slight decline which means the stock is already
的交易水準，我們會得到約 167 美元的目標價，這只是一個小幅下跌，這意味著股價已經
1:46:22
pricing in this low growth scenario already and not pricing in a potential for an upside in growth and so I think
反映了這個低成長情境，而沒有反映成長的潛在上行空間，所以我認為
1:46:31
that's a pretty good setup because it's not pricing in this improved Outlook I like it so that's the key to a good
這是一個相當好的佈局，因為它沒有反映這個改善的展望，我喜歡這樣，所以這是良好
1:46:38
investment case you want to get the foundations of the fundamental picture right and then the valuation and then
投資論點的關鍵，你希望正確掌握基本面的基礎，然後是估值，接著
1:46:44
you want to think about how expectations will change and then once you think about all three of those things you
你希望思考預期將如何變化，然後一旦你思考過這三件事，你
1:46:50
definitely do well because you have a clear plan you know that numbers and you know where the stock is going to go now
絕對會表現得很好，因為你有明確的計畫，你了解數字，你也知道股價將走向何方，現在
1:46:55
15% is pretty good for just an earnings release so you can get 15% in just one to two weeks it's not bad but we can
15% 對於單純的財報發布來說相當不錯，你可以在短短一到兩週內獲得 15%，這不差，但我們
1:47:02
actually juice this up with options so next section I'm going to show you how you can get creative to get an even
其實可以用選擇權來放大這一點，所以下一部分我將向你展示當你發現像 [音樂] 這樣的小機會時，如何發揮創意獲得更
1:47:08
bigger payoff when you find small things like [Music]
大的回報
1:47:16
this all right options options give you the right to buy the stock for a fee or a premium you get the option to buy 100
這沒問題 選擇權讓你有權利以一筆費用或權利金購買股票 你獲得在特定日期以履約價購買100
1:47:24
shares at the strike price at a certain date and that's the xpre for a premium and of course you don't have to put down
股的選擇權 這就是為權利金支付的代價 當然 你不需要像平常那樣支付購買所有股票所需的全部資金 你真的可以利用
1:47:33
all the money that you would normally be required to buy all that stock you really can juice up returns using
選擇權來放大回報 所以舉例來說 這就是我在10月15日做的事 就在財報發布前 我做多 意思是
1:47:40
options so for example this is what I did in October 15th right before the earnings release I went long meaning I
我買了12月20日履約價170的XPR看漲期權 我買了兩張 每張1282
1:47:46
bought the December 20th xpre 170 strike calls I bought two of them for 1282 for
權利金 所以乘以二 意思是我支付了2564作為借方 我支付了這筆錢
1:47:54
premium so multiply that two means that I've put down 2564 as a debit I put that money down
現在每張期權給我權利 在2024年12月20日之前以170的履約價購買100股Pelocity股票
1:48:01
and now each of those options gives me the right to buy a 100 shares of pelocity stock at 170 that strike price
我也賣出了 所以我放空 意思是做空一張11月15日
1:48:09
by December 20th 2024 I also sold so I sold short meaning short a November 15th
2024年的XPR 履約價也是170的看漲期權 我以906美元賣出
1:48:18
2024 XPR also 170 strike call as well so I sold that for 9 and
所以這相當於獲得了906美元的貸方 這基本上只是為了幫助抵銷部分權利金成本 所以淨
1:48:26
$96 so that works out to a 906 credit so that's basically just to help offset some of that premium cost so the net
支付成本是1,658美元 這相當於購買200股股票
1:48:34
cost put down is 1,658 and that's the equivalent of buying 200 uh shares which is
以每股170美元計算 總值34,000美元 但我只支付了1,658美元 所以現在我只是向你展示這個
1:48:42
$34,000 at $170 a share but I'm only putting down 1,658 so now I'm only showing you this
作為一個賺錢方法的例子 一旦你了解價格是如何運作的 我想給你一個警告來保護
1:48:50
as one example of a way to make money once you understand how prices work and I want to give you a warning to protect
你 我真的不建議你嘗試選擇權 除非你對股票如何定價的基礎知識有很好的掌握
1:48:57
you that I really don't recommend you try options until you have a very good grasp of the fundamentals of how stocks
尤其是選擇權如何定價 因為如果你不了解像布萊克-休斯
1:49:04
are priced and also especially how options are priced because if you don't understand things like black schols
這樣的東西 這是一種選擇權估值方法 我認為你還沒準備好 我不希望你虧錢
1:49:11
which is an options valuation methodology I don't think you're ready and I don't want you to lose money
尤其是用選擇權 所以如果你有興趣 我未來會做一個關於選擇權的影片 而這就是一個
1:49:17
especially with options so I will do a video on options in the future if you're interested and with that that as a
警告 讓我們看看我們如何利用選擇權來放大回報 因為嘿 當我們看到一個好的
1:49:23
warning let's see how we can juice up returns with options because hey we all want to make money when we see a good
機會時 我們都想賺錢 對吧 所以期權價值可以因為槓桿而大幅波動 對吧 我們實際上是用很少的錢
1:49:29
opportunity right so the option value can move a lot because of the leverage right we're we're effectively buying a
買了很多股票 那麼以目前這個期權設定 如果股價達到我們的
1:49:35
lot of stock with very little money down so what happens with this current option setup if the stock gets to where our
我們用很少的錢就買了很多股票。那麼以目前這個期權設定，如果股價達到我們的
1:49:42
$200 Target would be we're making about 1342 so that's an 81 or about 80% return so that's great right but also if it
200美元的目標價，我們大約能賺1342美元，這代表81%或大約80%的報酬率，這很棒對吧？但如果股價跌到180美元或更低，我們基本上會損失658美元，或是我們投入的總資金1658美元，我們會損失全部的權利金，因為這些選擇權將會到期毫無價值。所以我喜歡這個結構，因為下跌風險是固定的，而且我也相信股價有很好的機會漲到200美元，我就可以保留那個選擇權，這樣如果股價持續超過200美元，像是到210美元，我就能持續靠這張12月20日的買權賺更多錢，這應該會給我更高的報酬率。
1:49:52
gets to 180 or below we're basically losing anywhere from 658 or the total uh money that we've put
我們已經完成了所有預測估值的工作，我們找出預期的變化，我們做了所有這些功課，我們建立了一個投資策略，我們操作了一些選擇權，現在剩下的就是等待財報發布。我們實際上在170美元左右買進了股票，股價在財報發布前開始小幅上漲，現在我們就靜待財報發布的結果。
1:50:00
down 1,658 so we lose all of the premium because the options are going to expire worthless and so I like this structure
所以現在就是財報發布的大日子，你將會看到這一切如何發展，以及當股票獲得新資訊時，股價如何重新估值。首先，Pelocity 在2024年10月30日發布了財報，他們發布了2025會計年度第一季的財報。你首先會立刻看到的是，第一季的營收成長率是14%，這是很棒的營收成長率對吧？記得之前的財測是全年成長大約8%，所以這絕對很有可能是優於預期（beat），意思是他們超越了預期，表現比研究分析師和市場預期的還要好。
1:50:09
because the downside is fixed and I also believe that there's a good chance the stock price would get to $200 and I
現在更重要的是，作為財報的一部分，他們也更新了2025會計年度的財測。現在他們預期營收在15.3億到15.5億美元之間，這代表營收成長率為10%，這比之前8.3%的財測好得多，所以這就是上修（raise），意思是他們現在預期財測會更高。所以他們既超越了預期（beat），現在又上修了財測（raise）。當你聽到「超越預期且上修財測」（beat and raise），對投資者來說簡直是天籟之音，因為你知道公司的表現比預期好，他們也上修了展望，這幾乎總是......
1:50:17
could keep that option so this Long December 20th calls to keep making money if the stock keeps going Beyond 200 like
我就能保留那個選擇權，這樣如果股價持續超過 200 美元，像是到 210 美元，我就能持續靠這張 12 月 20 日的買權賺更多錢，這應該會給我更高的報酬率
1:50:25
for 2 210 which should give me an even higher return so we've done all the work of forecasting valuation we figured out
我們已經完成了所有預測估值的工作，我們找出預期的變化，我們做了所有這些功課，我們建立了一個投資策略，我們操作了一些選擇權，現在剩下的就是等待財報發布。我們實際上在170美元左右買進了股票，股價在財報發布前開始小幅上漲，現在我們就靜待財報發布的結果。
1:50:33
a change in expectations we did all that work we set up an investment we did some options now all it is is just we wait
我們做了所有這些功課，我們建立了一個投資策略，我們操作了一些選擇權，現在剩下的就是只是我們等待
1:50:38
for the earnings release we've effectively bought our stock around 170 the stock started to trade up slightly
財報發布。我們實際上在 170 美元左右買進了股票，股價在財報發布前開始小幅上漲
1:50:44
into the earnings release and now we just wait until what happens with the earnings
進入財報發布期，現在我們就靜待財報發布的結果
1:50:50
release so now this is the big day the earnings release and you're going to see how all of this goes down and how stock
所以現在就是財報發布的大日子，你將會看到這一切如何發展，以及當股票獲得新資訊時，股價如何重新估值。首先，Pelocity 在2024年10月30日發布了財報，他們發布了2025會計年度第一季的財報。你首先會立刻看到的是，第一季的營收成長率是14%，這是很棒的營收成長率對吧？記得之前的財測是全年成長大約8%，所以這絕對很有可能是優於預期（beat），意思是他們超越了預期，表現比研究分析師和市場預期的還要好。
1:50:56
prices revalue when it gets new information so the first thing is that pelocity releases its earnings on
價格在獲得新資訊時會重新估值。所以第一件事是 Paylocity 在
1:51:02
October 30th 2024 they released their first quarter 2025 earnings now the first thing that you'll see right away
2024 年 10 月 30 日發布了財報，他們發布了 2025 會計年度第一季的財報。你首先會立刻看到的是
1:51:09
is that the revenue growth for one Q was 14% so that's a great Revenue growth rate right remember the guidance was
第一季的營收成長率是 14%，這是很棒的營收成長率對吧？記得之前的財測是
1:51:15
about 8% growth for the year so that's definitely most likely a beat meaning they beat the estim and it's better than
全年成長大約 8%，所以這絕對很有可能是優於預期（beat），意思是他們超越了預期，表現比
1:51:23
what research analysts and the market was expecting now more importantly as part of that they also updated their
現在更重要的是，作為財報的一部分，他們也更新了2025會計年度的財測。現在他們預期營收在15.3億到15.5億美元之間，這代表營收成長率為10%，這比之前8.3%的財測好得多，所以這就是上修（raise），意思是他們現在預期財測會更高。所以他們既超越了預期（beat），現在又上修了財測（raise）。當你聽到「超越預期且上修財測」（beat and raise），對投資者來說簡直是天籟之音，因為你知道公司的表現比預期好，他們也上修了展望，這幾乎總是......
1:51:28
fiscal 2025 guidance now they expect revenues of 1.53 to 1.55 billion which
2025 財年的財測。現在他們預期營收在 15.3 億到 15.5 億美元之間，這
1:51:35
represents 10% growth in Revenue growth and that's much better than the guidance of 8.3 earlier so that's the raise
代表營收成長率為 10%，這比之前 8.3% 的財測好得多，所以這就是上修（raise）
1:51:44
meaning that they now expect the guidance to be higher that's so they beat estimates and now they raise
意思是他們現在預期財測會更高。所以他們既超越了預期（beat），現在又上修了財測（raise）
1:51:50
guidance and now when you hear beat and raise that's literally music to an Investor's ears because you know that
財測。當你聽到「超越預期且上修財測」（beat and raise），對投資者來說簡直是天籟之音，因為你知道
1:51:55
the company's better performing better than expected they've raised their Outlook which definitely almost always
公司的表現比預期好，他們也上修了展望，這幾乎總是
1:52:00
means a higher stock price so you know you're going to make money so what does the stock do so the the the company
意味著股價會上漲，所以你知道你將會賺錢，那麼股價會怎麼走呢？在公司
1:52:06
released its earnings right around here so the October 30th 2024 release date now so the next day the stock opens all
公布財報的時間點大約在這裡，也就是 2024 年 10 月 30 日的公布日期，那麼第二天股價一開盤就大漲
1:52:15
the way up 20% right away so it's up 20% immediately and it stays there at about 210 kind of Trades down a little bit but
20%，所以它立即上漲了 20%，並且維持在大約 210 的位置，雖然稍微下跌了一點，但
1:52:22
it just stays there over the next few days so now why so let's let's break down what's actually going on with the
它在接下來的幾天就一直維持在那裡，那麼為什麼呢？讓我們來分析一下價格背後的
1:52:27
price so first thing is because earnings are better than expected and guidance for fiscal 2025 Revenue growth is higher
實際情況，首先是因為財報表現優於預期，且 2025 財年的營收成長指引也更高，
1:52:35
now you can see expectations have moved up so these are the earnings estimates the next 12 months earnings per share
現在你可以看到預期已經向上調升，這些是未來 12 個月的每股收益
1:52:41
estimate for pelocity and you can see that it's moved up from about you know 6.4 or so to 6.51 so you can see that
預測，針對 Paylocity，你可以看到它從大約 6.4 左右上升到 6.51，所以你可以看到
1:52:50
increase in analyst estimates for fiscal 2025 and so that's one of the reasons that moves the stock price higher now
分析師對 2025 財年的預測有所增加，而這是推升股價的原因之一，現在
1:52:57
second when we look at a valuation perspective this is the price to earnings multiple of pelocity as well as
第二點，當我們從估值的角度來看，這是 Paylocity 的市盈率（P/E ratio）以及
1:53:02
a couple of the other peers you can see that pity's multiple has also moved up as well so right after the earnings
幾家同業的數據，你可以看到 Paylocity 的市盈率也上升了，所以在財報公布後
1:53:10
released the stock price jumps up and so now we get a higher multiple pity's multiple has uh gone up from that 28 to
股價隨即跳漲，所以現在我們得到了一個更高的市盈率，Paylocity 的市盈率從 28 倍
1:53:17
now it's set a 31 times multiple so it first gets to the paychecks ADP multiple around the time of the
上升到現在設定為 31 倍，它首先在公布財報時達到
1:53:26
release and then it moves up to that 31 times multiple and it stays there the reason why that is because that stronger
大約 28 倍的市盈率，然後上升到 31 倍並維持在那裡，原因在於更強勁的
1:53:32
growth leads to a higher valuation multiple for the stock just like we anticipated which is another way of
成長導致股票獲得更高的估值倍數，正如我們預期的，這也是
1:53:39
seeing the higher expectations come into the stock price so you can see these are all the prior estimates over here on the
更高預期反映在股價上的另一種方式，所以你可以看到這裡上方所有的先前預測
1:53:47
top as well as our forecast so then now let's look at the new estimates for Paylocity stock right after the earnings
以及我們的預測，那麼現在讓我們來看看 Paylocity 股票在財報公布後的
1:53:53
release so a couple days later now estimates are now $714 and it's gone up and and 662 for
新預測，幾天後，現在的預測是 7.14 美元，它已經上升了，而 2025 財年是 6.62 美元，
1:54:01
fiscal 2025 so when we look at the change from the prior estimate so right before the earnings release to the
所以當我們觀察從先前的預測（也就是財報公布前）到
1:54:08
current analyst estimates you can see that they're all moving up about 3% so again it's it's a small move but that's
目前分析師預測的變化，你可以看到它們都上升了約 3%，所以再次強調，這是一個小幅的變動，但那正是
1:54:14
a change in Market expectations so just to put that all together right you see this better fundamental Outlook you see
市場預期的改變，所以把這些都綜合起來看，你看到了這個更好的基本面展望，你看到了
1:54:20
the earnings per share Outlook going up and that's reflecting the improving fundamental trends for pelocity because
每股收益預期上升，這反映了 Paylocity 基本面趨勢的改善，因為
1:54:26
of the higher Revenue growth so you get that rise in earnings estimates you get the rise in valuation and then that all
收入增長較高，所以你會看到收益預估上升，估值也隨之上升，然後這一切
1:54:34
leads to the stock price hitting that 200 or so stock price just like how we priced it before the earnings and of
都導致股價達到大約 200 美元的目標價，就像我們在財報公布前預估的那樣，當然
1:54:42
course it stays a little bit higher it gets actually get up to 210 but kind of bounces between this 200 and 210 Mark
它會維持在稍微高一點的水準，實際上甚至達到 210 美元，但在 200 到 210 美元的區間
1:54:50
and you can see that this is the market re valuing the stock positively and of course it works for us because we
震盪，你可以看到這是市場對該股進行正面的重新估值，當然這對我們有利，因為我們
1:54:55
prepared for it and the stock will likely keep rising over time as long as Paylocity grows their earnings okay so
對此有所準備，而且只要 Paylocity 持續增長其收益，該股很可能會隨時間繼續上漲。好了，
1:55:02
now the fun part how much money did we actually make with all that preparation well the first thing was we've put down
現在來看有趣的部分，我們所有的準備工作到底賺了多少錢？首先，我們投入了
1:55:07
1,658 now the payoff at $200 a share which is where the stock went up to from a long call perspective so we have the
1,658 美元（此處應指權利金總額或保證金，依上下文推斷），而報酬是在股價達到 200 美元時實現的，這是該股從買權（long call）的角度
1:55:15
$200 stock price and we have a $170 strike minus a 1282 premium so we have the option to buy it at1 170 so we get
漲到的價位。我們有 200 美元的股價，以及 170 美元的履約價減去 12.82 美元的權利金，所以我們有以 170 美元買進的權利。如果股價是 200 美元，
1:55:25
$30 from the $200 stock price if we minus the premium that works out to about
我們就賺了 30 美元，如果再扣除權利金，大約賺了
1:55:31
17.18 and we got two of those calls multiply that by 100 that gets us to about
17.18 美元，而我們買了兩張這樣的買權，乘以 100 股，我們大約賺了
1:55:38
3,436 in profit now the short calls which we sold to offset the premium we did $170 strike as well but because we
3,436 美元的利潤。再來是我們為了對沖權利金而賣出的賣權（short calls），我們也是以 170 美元履約價賣出，但因為我們
1:55:47
sold the option to buy now we're uh minusing the 200 so now we have to pay up $30 but we're offsetting it a little
賣出的是買進的權利（此處應指賣出買權以獲取權利金，或指價差策略中的賣權部位），現在我們要減去 200 美元的部分，所以我們必須支付 30 美元，但我們用這 9.06 美元的權利金
1:55:55
bit with this 906 premium and so that works out to 20.94% return based on the money that we
來稍微對沖，所以這大約是 20.94% 的回報率，基於我們
1:56:20
put down and of course the best thing is is now we own options to buy 200 shares of pelocity at $170 a share that works
投入的資金。當然，最棒的是現在我們持有以每股 170 美元購買 200 股 Paylocity 的權利，這
1:56:30
out to a $6,000 value of that position right because if it stocks at 200 and we can
相當於該部位 6,000 美元的價值，對吧？因為如果股價在 200 美元，而我們可以
1:56:36
buy it 170 that's 30 bucks a position 30 * 2 is 60 * 100 gets us to $6,000 so that's why it's $6,000 in value so that
以 170 美元買進，每股賺 30 美元，一個部位 30 * 2 是 60 * 100 股，就是 6,000 美元，所以這就是為什麼它值 6,000 美元。所以這個
1:56:46
value will keep increasing as the stock moves higher and of course that's one way to make higher returns because we
價值會隨著股價上漲而持續增加，當然，這是獲得更高回報的一種方式，因為我們
1:56:53
didn't really put a lot of money down using options creatively so the most important thing to take away you've made
並沒有投入很多錢，而是創造性地使用了期權。所以，最重要的一點，既然你已經看到這裡了，那就是
1:57:00
it this far is to make money investing and that's the whole point of fundamental analysis you want to pick
賺錢投資，這也是基本面分析的全部意義，你想要挑選
1:57:06
good companies companies with strong earnings outlooks and that are generating good returns from their
好的公司、擁有強勁獲利前景且能從投資中創造良好回報的公司
1:57:12
Investments you want to Value them so you can get a good price and that means putting together a good forecast getting
你希望對它們進行估值，以便取得好的價格，這意味著要做出完善的預測、
1:57:18
the right multiple so you can get the right price to buy and ultimately sell those companies and then you want to
找到正確的乘數，如此才能得到正確的買價，並最終賣掉這些公司，接著你希望
1:57:23
look for changing expectations if you want to look for opportunities to time when to buy and sell look for what's
尋找預期變化的契機。如果你想尋找買賣時機的機會，就要觀察什麼正在改變
1:57:29
changing and look for what the Market's not pricing in if you do all three of these things guarantee you will make
以及市場尚未反映的資訊。如果你做到這三點，我保證你會賺錢
1:57:35
money and that's everything you need to know about fundamental analysis and to keep learning investing I suggest you
以上就是基本面分析所需了解的一切。若想持續學習投資，我建議你
1:57:43
actually watch this next video and if you'd like to learn further I am looking for the next 500 people to help mentor
接著觀看下一部影片。如果你想進一步學習，我正在尋找下 500 位學員來輔導
1:57:50
and teach on how to make money with Stock Investing and if you love this I suggest you check out our education
並教導如何透過股票投資賺錢。如果你喜歡這個內容，我建議你查看我們的教育
1:57:55
program it's in the description because if you like this you're going to love the program I hope you enjoy this and
計劃，連結在說明欄位中，因為如果你喜歡這個，你一定會愛上這個計劃。我希望你享受這個影片並
1:58:00
learn something spent a lot of hours recording this so I'm a little tired and I will see you in the next video coming
學到東西。我花了很多小時錄製這個影片，所以有點累了。我們下支影片見
1:58:07
is coming being [Music]
即將推出 [音樂]

The Only Fundamental Analysis Video You Will Ever Need... (Full Course: Beginner to Advanced)

📝 影片摘要

本單元深入探討基本面分析，強調理解企業財務實力以做出明智的投資決策。影片從華爾街的實戰經驗出發，指出技術分析的局限性，並推薦以基本面分析來尋找價值被低估的優質企業。教學內容涵蓋財務報表的基礎（營收、成本、利潤、資產、負債）、如何解讀財報以識別成長性、利潤率和資本回報率，並透過建立虛擬咖啡店的案例，具體說明各項財務數據的意義與關聯。此外，單元也觸及估值、預測、尋找投資機會，以及市場心理學，旨在幫助投資者避免追高殺低的陷阱，以合理的價格買入並持有具成長潛力的好公司，達成長期穩健的投資目標。

📌 重點整理

  • ✓ 基本面分析是理解企業價值、尋找優質股票的關鍵方法。
  • ✓ 股價長期趨勢與企業的每股盈餘（EPS）密切相關，市場傾向於預測未來盈餘。
  • ✓ 避免「追漲殺跌」的追價策略，應關注企業成長性並在價值被低估時買入。
  • ✓ 基本面分析不需成為會計師或進行高頻交易，專注於關鍵財務指標即可。
  • ✓ 財務報表是基本面分析的基礎，需關注營收成長、利潤率和資本回報率。
  • ✓ 資產負債表顯示資產由負債和股權構成，且兩者必須平衡。
  • ✓ 損益表（Income Statement）展示企業的營收、成本、毛利、營業費用、利息、稅務及最終淨利。
  • ✓ 理解財務報表能幫助識別潛在風險，避免如影片中作者早期因忽略財報而造成的損失。
📖 專有名詞百科 ｜點擊詞彙查看維基百科解釋
基本面分析
fundamental analysis
技術分析
technical analysis
每股盈餘
earnings per share
未來十二個月
NTM
波動性
volatility
差異
divergences
動量
momentum
財務報表
financial statements
利潤率
margins
投入資本回報率
Returns on Invested Capital

🔍 自訂查詢

📚 共 10 個重點單字
fundamental analysis /ˌfʌndəˈmentl əˈnæləsɪs/ noun
a method of evaluating a security by trying to measure its intrinsic value, including all related macroeconomic, industry, and company-specific factors.
基本面分析
📝 例句
"Fundamental analysis is the best way to get into stocks."
→ 基本面分析是進入股票市場的最佳方式。
✨ 延伸例句
"He uses fundamental analysis to pick stocks for his portfolio."
→ 他使用基本面分析為他的投資組合挑選股票。
technical analysis /ˈtɛknɪkl əˈnæləsɪs/ noun
a trading discipline employed by traders, particularly in financial markets, that tries to predict future price movements by analyzing past price and volume data.
技術分析
📝 例句
"I myself have lost thousands and thousands of dollars from using what's called technical analysis."
→ 我自己就曾因為使用所謂的技術分析而損失了數千美元。
✨ 延伸例句
"Technical analysis focuses on charts and patterns."
→ 技術分析側重於圖表和模式。
earnings per share /ˈɜːrnɪŋz pər ʃɛər/ noun
a company's net profit divided by the number of preferred and common outstanding shares.
每股盈餘
📝 例句
"The earnings per share is the value that we get as investors."
→ 每股盈餘是我們作為投資者獲得的價值。
✨ 延伸例句
"Analysts closely watch earnings per share trends."
→ 分析師密切關注每股盈餘趨勢。
NTM /ɛn ti ɛm/ abbreviation
Next Twelve Months
未來十二個月
📝 例句
"use the next 12 months earnings per share estimate or NTM for short"
→ 使用未來十二個月的每股盈餘預估，簡稱 NTM。
✨ 延伸例句
"NTM earnings are often a better indicator of future performance."
→ 未來十二個月的盈餘通常是未來績效的更好指標。
volatility /ˌvɒləˈtɪləti/ noun
the quality of being likely to change suddenly and rapidly.
波動性；不穩定性
📝 例句
"it's a little bit more volatile"
→ 它有點更加波動。
✨ 延伸例句
"High volatility in the stock market can be unsettling for investors."
→ 股市的高波動性可能讓投資者感到不安。
divergences /daɪˈvɜːrdʒənsɪz/ noun
the fact or state of disagreeing or being different.
差異；分歧
📝 例句
"There's also big divergences between price and earnings per share."
→ 股價和每股盈餘之間也存在很大的差異。
✨ 延伸例句
"The report highlighted divergences in economic growth between regions."
→ 報告強調了各地區經濟增長的分歧。
momentum /moʊˈmentəm/ noun
the impetus gained by a moving object; the tendency of a moving object to continue moving.
動量；衝力
📝 例句
"It's what I like to call the face and prey strategy they they follow markets really obsessively they'll start chasing price trends or popular stocks and then ultimately buy them at Peaks and inevitably as you know price comes down and then they hold it just praying it will recover because at the end of the day they don't really know what they bought so what's actually happening here is that's a momentum strategy"
→ 這是我所謂的「祈禱策略」：他們過度關注市場，追逐價格趨勢或熱門股票，最終在高點買入，然後不可避免地，股價下跌，他們就持有著，祈禱它會反彈，因為歸根結底，他們並不真正了解自己買了什麼。這裡實際發生的是，這是一種動量策略。
✨ 延伸例句
"The stock gained momentum after the positive earnings report."
→ 在積極的盈利報告之後，該股票獲得了動量。
financial statements /faɪˈnænʃl ˈsteɪtmənts/ noun
records of a company's financial activities and position.
財務報表
📝 例句
"the foundation is the financial statements"
→ 基礎就是財務報表。
✨ 延伸例句
"Investors rely on financial statements to assess a company's health."
→ 投資者依賴財務報表來評估公司的健康狀況。
margins /ˈmɑːrdʒɪnz/ noun
the rate of profit on a business transaction.
利潤率；邊際
📝 例句
"the second is the margins so the efficiency of the business"
→ 第二是利潤率，也就是企業的效率。
✨ 延伸例句
"Improving profit margins is a key goal for the company."
→ 提高利潤率是公司的關鍵目標。
Returns on Invested Capital /rɪˈtɜːrnz ɒn ɪnˈvestɪd ˈkæpɪtl/ noun phrase
a financial ratio that measures how effectively a company is using its capital to generate profits.
投入資本回報率
📝 例句
"and third is the returns so the Returns on invested Capital"
→ 第三是回報，也就是投入資本的回報率。
✨ 延伸例句
"High Returns on Invested Capital indicate efficient operations."
→ 高投入資本回報率表明營運效率高。
🎯 共 10 題測驗

1 According to the video, what is the primary method recommended for making sound investment decisions? 根據影片，推薦的做出明智投資決策的主要方法是什麼？ According to the video, what is the primary method recommended for making sound investment decisions?

根據影片，推薦的做出明智投資決策的主要方法是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video emphasizes that fundamental analysis, which involves understanding a business's financial strengths, is the best way to make good investment decisions and avoid losses.

影片強調，基本面分析，即理解企業的財務實力，是做出良好投資決策和避免損失的最佳方式。

2 What does the video suggest is the relationship between a stock's price and its earnings per share (EPS)? 影片認為股票價格與其每股盈餘（EPS）之間有什麼關係？ What does the video suggest is the relationship between a stock's price and its earnings per share (EPS)?

影片認為股票價格與其每股盈餘（EPS）之間有什麼關係？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 D

The video illustrates with examples like Apple and Nvidia, showing that the price line generally follows the earnings per share line, indicating that price tends to follow earnings.

影片以蘋果和輝達等例子說明，股價線通常跟隨每股盈餘線，表明價格傾向於跟隨盈餘。

3 What is the 'face and prey' strategy described in the video? 影片中描述的「祈禱策略」（face and prey strategy）是什麼？ What is the 'face and prey' strategy described in the video?

影片中描述的「祈禱策略」（face and prey strategy）是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The video describes this strategy as obsessively following the market, chasing price trends or popular stocks, buying at peaks, then holding and praying for recovery because investors don't understand what they bought.

影片將這種策略描述為過度關注市場，追逐價格趨勢或熱門股票，在高點買入，然後持有並祈禱股價反彈，因為投資者不了解他們所購買的資產。

4 What are the three key financial statement elements that make money for investors, according to the video? 根據影片，構成投資者獲利基礎的三個關鍵財務報表要素是什麼？ What are the three key financial statement elements that make money for investors, according to the video?

根據影片，構成投資者獲利基礎的三個關鍵財務報表要素是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The video states that the key financial statement elements investors should focus on are: the growth of earnings, the margins (efficiency of the business), and the returns on invested capital.

影片指出，投資者需要關注的關鍵財務報表要素是：盈餘的成長性、利潤率（企業效率）以及投入資本的回報率。

5 In the coffee shop example, what represents the initial investment made by the founders in exchange for shares? 在咖啡店的例子中，創始人為換取股份而進行的初始投資代表什麼？ In the coffee shop example, what represents the initial investment made by the founders in exchange for shares?

在咖啡店的例子中，創始人為換取股份而進行的初始投資代表什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

In the video's example, founders each put in $500 in exchange for shares of the business, which is defined as Equity.

影片中，創始人各自投入 500 美元換取公司股份，這被定義為股權（Equity），代表對公司的所有權。

6 What is 'COGS' in the context of the coffee shop example? 在咖啡店的例子中，「COGS」是什麼意思？ What is 'COGS' in the context of the coffee shop example?

在咖啡店的例子中，「COGS」是什麼意思？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 A

The video explains that COGS stands for Cost of Goods Sold, which represents the direct costs associated with selling the product, such as the cost of beans and cups.

影片解釋 COGS 是 Cost of Goods Sold（銷貨成本）的縮寫，指銷售產品的直接成本，例如咖啡豆和杯子的成本。

7 What does EBIT stand for in financial terms? 在財務術語中，EBIT 代表什麼？ What does EBIT stand for in financial terms?

在財務術語中，EBIT 代表什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 A

The video mentions that EBIT stands for Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, representing a company's profit before accounting for interest and tax expenses.

影片中提到，EBIT 是 Earnings Before Interest and Taxes（利息稅前盈餘）的縮寫，代表公司在支付利息和稅款之前的盈利。

8 What is depreciation, as explained in the coffee shop example? 根據咖啡店的例子，折舊（Depreciation）是什麼？ What is depreciation, as explained in the coffee shop example?

根據咖啡店的例子，折舊（Depreciation）是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video explains depreciation as the quantification of wear and tear on equipment, such as the decrease in value of assets like coffee machines over time due to use.

影片將折舊解釋為設備磨損的量化，例如咖啡機等資產在使用過程中價值的降低。

9 What is Net Income? 什麼是淨利（Net Income）？ What is Net Income?

什麼是淨利（Net Income）？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video concludes by stating that Net Income is the final profit remaining after all costs, interest, and taxes have been deducted.

影片最後提到，淨利（Net Income）是企業在扣除所有成本、利息和稅款後最終剩下的利潤。

10 Which of the following is NOT required for fundamental analysis, according to the video? 根據影片，以下哪項不是進行基本面分析所必需的？ Which of the following is NOT required for fundamental analysis, according to the video?

根據影片，以下哪項不是進行基本面分析所必需的？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video explicitly states that you do not need to be a day trader, as 90% of trading is algorithmic, nor do you need to be an accountant.

影片明確指出，你不需要成為日內交易者，因為 90% 的交易是算法交易，而且你也不需要是會計師。

測驗完成！得分： / 10

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