00:00
so the first question you may have is what exactly is fundamental stock analysis so earlier or the last module
所以你可能的第一個問題是，什麼是基本面股票分析？在上一個模組中
00:06
we talked about technical stock analysis now while technical stock analysis can be related to the personality of a stock
我們談到了技術面股票分析。雖然技術面股票分析可以被比擬為股票的「個性」
00:13
fundamental stock analysis is the health of the company so think of the technicals of the stock as the
但基本面股票分析則是公司的「健康狀況」。所以你可以把股票的技術面視為
00:21
personality while the fundamentals are the overall health if you're thinking about a person now fundamental stock
個性，而基本面則是整體健康。如果你想像一個人，基本面股票
00:27
analysis is the study of the Financial Health and Fitness of a company now the main factors analyzed in fundamental
分析就是研究一家公司的財務健康與體質。在基本面股票
00:35
stock analysis are Revenue earnings and debt and the goal of fundamental analysis is to determine the intrinsic
分析中，主要分析的因素是營收、盈餘（收益）和負債，而基本面分析的目標是為了確定股票的
00:42
value of a stock and we're going to Define intrinsic value a little bit later on I didn't want to confuse you
內在價值。我們稍後會定義什麼是內在價值，我不想現在就讓大家混淆
00:48
guys with that yet but we're going to revisit that but in a nutshell when we're looking at fundamental stock
但我們會再回來探討。簡而言之，當我們看基本面股票
00:54
analysis we're looking at the company Revenue what their earnings are so what they're actually keeping of that revenue
分析時，我們看的是公司的營收、他們的盈餘（也就是他們實際從營收中保留了多少），
01:00
and how much debt they have and there are a number of financial documents that we're going to be analyzing that are
以及他們有多少負債。我們將會分析許多財務文件，這些文件
01:07
really going to paint the picture of the Financial Health of this company because it's very similar to your own personal
真實地描繪出這家公司的財務健康狀況，因為這與你個人的
01:14
financial Health you know you can see somebody who is in poor Financial Health when they have too much debt and there's
財務健康非常相似。你知道，當一個人負債過多時，你可以看出他的財務狀況不佳；同樣地
01:21
also people who have a lot of cash and they don't have a lot of debt that same thing holds true with companies you'll
也有人現金很多且沒有什麼負債。公司也是如此。你會
01:27
find companies out there some of them have a lot of debt and some of them have very little debt and they have a lot of
發現市面上的公司，有些負債累累，有些則負債很少且擁有大量
01:32
cash so essentially what you're doing is determining the health of that company financially and making sure they're in a
現金。所以本質上，你要做的是判斷那家公司的財務健康狀況，並確保他們處於
01:40
good position to repay those obligations as well as grow in the future now the very first thing that we should talk
良好的位置來償還債務，同時也能在未來成長。現在，當我們談到基本面股票分析時，首先應該討論的
01:47
about when it comes to fundamental stock analysis is something that really has nothing to do directly with the numbers
是一些與數字沒有直接關係，但卻會間接影響支出和負債等因素的東西，那就是「管理層」。這是因為
01:53
but indirectly this will impact spending and debt and things like that but that is the management and that is because
一艘船若沒有好的船長就毫無用處。所以在分析一家公司時，你需要考慮的一個因素是
02:00
because a ship is of no use without a good Captain so one factor you need to consider when analyzing a company is the
該公司的管理層，因為最終你想確定的是，這家公司
02:07
management of that company because ultimately what you're looking to determine is whether or not the company
該公司的管理層，因為最終您要確定的是該公司
02:13
is being run well now the best place to start is with the board of directors and if you guys have heard this before heard
現在運作良好，最適合的起點是董事會。如果你們聽過這個說法，
02:21
this term before or maybe you've even been an investor in stocks and you've been sent around a voting proxy where
聽過這個詞，或者也許你甚至投資過股票，曾經收到委託書讓你
02:28
you're voting on board of directors that is why you're familiar with this because these individuals are elected to
投票選舉董事會，那就是為什麼你對此很熟悉，因為這些個人被選出來
02:34
represent the shareholders and create management policies as well as decide on major company decisions and shareholders
代表股東並制定管理政策，同時決定公司的重大決策，而擁有
02:42
with voting rights elect the members so again this is another reason why voting rights are just so important to you guys
投票權的股東選舉成員。所以，這再次說明為什麼投票權對你們來說如此重要。
02:49
I mean if you're going to be a long-term investor in a company I hope that you are going to take the time to study the
我的意思是，如果你打算成為一家公司的長期投資者，我希望你會花時間研究
02:56
management and learn about the management and then when it comes time to vote on the board of directors and
管理層並了解管理層，然後當到了投票選舉董事會和
03:02
different management employees that you're actually going to take the time to learn about these people and make
不同管理層員工的時候，你實際上會花時間去了解這些人，並根據
03:08
good decisions based on what you envision for the company because remember guys at the end of the day
你對公司的期望做出好的決定，因為記住，各位，歸根結底
03:13
you're part owner of that company and you're going to want to make decisions or use your vote to allow the company to
你是那家公司的部分所有者，你會希望做出決定或利用你的投票權，讓公司做出
03:21
make the decisions on basically the in their best interest which you believe is in their best interest so just like with
基本上符合其最佳利益的決定，也就是你認為符合其最佳利益的決定。所以就像
03:26
local politics and elections you want to learn about the politicians and the people that are running and decide who
地方政治和選舉一樣，你想去了解政治人物和參選人，並決定你認為
03:34
you feel is a best fit for the job and I encourage you guys to do the same thing when you're looking at the voting
誰最適合這個職位，我鼓勵你們在查看公司董事會和其他
03:40
proxies for board of directors and other management members of a company but again this is why I always invest in
管理層成員的投票委託書時，也做同樣的事情。但這也是為什麼我總是投資
03:47
companies that allow you to have voting rights or it's like one of my main things because like we talked about
那些允許你擁有投票權的公司，或者說這是我主要的考量之一，因為就像我們之前在這門課中
03:52
Snapchat earlier on in this course you basically the co-founders have complete control over who was elected and the
談到 Snapchat 時說的，共同創辦人基本上完全控制了誰當選，而
04:01
shareholders have no voice so now we're going to talk about the hierarchy of a corporation and I just want to kind of
股東沒有發言權。所以現在我們要來談談公司的層級結構，我只是想讓
04:08
give you guys an idea of what the food chain looks like so at the very top you there you are right there that would be
大家有個概念，看看這個食物鏈長什麼樣子。所以在最頂端，你就在那裡，那就是
04:14
you as a shareholder so the shareholders are at the very top of the company and below that they essentially elect the
你作為股東，所以股東在公司的最頂層，在他們之下，他們本質上選舉了
04:21
board of directors which are going to set management policies and essentially maintain best practices in the company
董事會，董事會將制定管理政策，並在公司內維持最佳實踐。
04:29
now below that you have the president or the presidential level of the company and then you have the treasurer and the
在那之下，您會看到總裁或公司的總經理層級，接著在總裁之下是財務長和
04:35
secretary below the president and then you have the vice presidents below that you have the managers and then you have
秘書長，再往下是副總經理，之後是經理，然後是
04:41
the employees so understand that as a shareholder you're at the very top of this so of this um hierarchy here for
員工。所以要理解，作為股東，您位於這個
04:48
this company for for any company as long as you have voting rights you're going to be electing this board of directors
公司層級架構的最頂端，對於任何公司而言，只要您擁有投票權，您就會選舉這個董事會
04:54
which is ultimately going to be controlling whatever else goes on in the company they're going to be making these
，它最終將控制公司內發生的其他一切事務，他們將制定這些
04:59
decisions and policies that the president and everyone else upholds to so you are at the very top in terms of
決策和政策，而總裁和其他所有人都必須遵守，因此在控制權方面，您處於最頂端
05:05
control and everything essentially at this point trickles down now what is the actual purpose of this hierarchy here
，基本上在這個階段，一切都會向下傳遞。那麼，這個層級架構的實際目的是什麼呢？
05:12
well the corporate hierarchy is designed to bring organization to what could otherwise be disorderly chaos now think
嗯，企業層級架構旨在為原本可能無序的混亂帶來組織性。現在試想一下
05:19
about the size of a company think about some of these large companies with tens if not hundreds of thousands of
公司的規模，想想那些擁有數萬甚至數十萬名
05:24
employees if everyone is not focused on a common goal then you're going to have a lot of misdirection in that company
員工的大型公司，如果每個人都沒有專注於一個共同的目標，那麼公司內部將會出現許多方向錯誤
05:31
and corporations have large objectives that cannot be fulfilled by one individual so instead the organizational
，而企業有著無法由單一個人完成的大型目標，因此，組織
05:38
structure allows everything to be delegated and the goal is to focus all efforts on the common goals and
結構允許將所有事務進行授權，其目標是將所有努力集中在共同的目標和
05:44
objectives so really the idea of this system is to keep everyone on the same page and try to keep organization when
方針上。所以，這個系統的真正理念是讓每人都保持一致，並在
05:52
people in groups are working on such large projects and goals so that's really the point of this structure is to
人們群體合作處理大型專案和目標時，盡量維持組織性。因此，這個結構的真正意義在於
05:59
create some kind of organization out of what could otherwise be disorderly chaos and this is why it's so important to
從原本可能無序的混亂中創造出某種組織性。這就是為什麼考慮管理層如此重要，
06:07
consider the management because the management and the board of directors are really the people that are that are
因為管理層和董事會才是真正
06:14
orchestrating all this that are making sure people are working on common goals and you know they're all aligned with
籌劃這一切的人，他們確保人們致力於共同的目標，並且您知道，他們都與
06:22
the company vision and the company objectives so this is why it is so important to really get to know and
公司的遠景和目標保持一致。這就是為什麼真正去了解和
06:28
understand the management of a company so as you can see the board of directors plays a very large role in the corporate
理解公司的管理層是如此重要。如您所見，董事會在企業
06:35
hierarchy and one of the best places to start when studying the fundamentals of a company is with the management so to
層級架構中扮演著非常重要的角色，而研究公司基本面的最佳起點之一，就是從管理層開始。因此，為了
06:42
be honest with you guys and honestly Warren Buffett agrees with this as well if you want to I think we talked about
坦白說，各位，老實說華倫・巴菲特也同意這一點，如果你想的話，我想我們稍後會討論到
06:48
that a little bit later on some of Warren Buffett's principles as far as fundamental stock analysis goes but you
華倫・巴菲特關於基本面股票分析的一些原則，但你
06:53
might as well start with the management because without good management there you really have no other point at
不妨先從管理層開始，因為如果沒有好的管理層，你根本沒有必要
06:59
looking at other figures because essentially it's like that example of talking about a ship you may have a
去看其他數字，因為本質上這就像那個關於船的例子，你可能有一艘
07:05
great strong ship but with a lousy Captain it really doesn't matter it's not going to get you where you need to
很棒很堅固的船，但配上一個糟糕的船長，這真的無關緊要，它無法帶你到達你需要
07:10
go so that is why one of the first things I study is the management of the company and you're going to want to
的地方，所以這就是為什麼我首先研究的事情之一就是公司的管理層，而且你將會想要
07:16
study the goals and objectives and remember that the management is at the Helm of the ship and essentially the
研究其目標和宗旨，記住管理層就像是船上的舵手，而本質上
07:23
best place to go to start this search is investor relations I'm going to give you guys an example of where to find this
開始這項搜尋的最佳地點就是投資者關係頁面，我現在就給你們一個去哪裡找這個的
07:30
right now so we're going to use apple as our example of looking at the investor relations page but if you're investing
範例，所以我們將使用蘋果作為我們查看投資者關係頁面的例子，但如果你正在投資
07:37
or you're considering an investment in a large publicly traded company it is very likely that they are going to have an
或考慮投資一家大型上市公司，他們很有可能會有一個
07:44
investor relations page so the way to find this is you would just search the company name and then investor relations
投資者關係頁面，所以找到這個的方法就是直接在Google搜尋公司名稱然後加上投資者關係
07:50
in Google and so for Apple I typed in apple investor relations and when I clicked on the link this is the page
所以對蘋果來說，我輸入 apple investor relations，當我點擊連結後，這就是它帶我到達的頁面
07:56
that it brought me to as you can see in the top left this is Apple investor relations or apple investor news and if
如你所見，在左上角這是 Apple investor relations 或 apple investor news，如果
08:04
you really want to bookmark this site and revisit it periodically because while there are documents that they're
你真的很想，可以把這個網站加入書籤並定期回來查看，因為雖然他們有規定要提交的文件
08:10
required to file they also may include news and updates about what's going on with the company that you would want to
他們也可能包含關於公司正在發生什麼事的新聞和更新，這些是你作為投資者會想要
08:17
be involved with as an investor so here we have an example of what type of information you'll find on the investor
參與了解的，所以這裡我們有一個你在投資者關係頁面上會找到的資訊類型的範例
08:23
relations page and I will tell you that Apple has a great investor relation site so they provide a lot of good
我要告訴你，蘋果有一個很棒的投資者關係網站，所以他們提供了很多很好的
08:30
information so here are four things you could look at here on the top left we have apple and the environment and this
資訊，所以這裡有四件事你可以看，這裡在左上角我們有 apple and the environment，這
08:36
is again something that's very important to Warren Buffett when it comes to investing is the responsibility of the
再次是華倫・巴菲特在投資時非常重視的一點，就是公司對於
08:42
company when it comes to their to the environment and then you can see on the right there they talk about their
環境的責任，然後你可以在右邊看到他們談論他們的
08:48
supplier responsibility on the bottom left they have The Newsroom the latest news for journalists and then at the
供應商責任 左下角有新聞室，提供記者最新的新聞，然後右下角有最新的媒體聯絡資訊、工作機會等等，以及關於 Apple 的區塊，但對我來說最重要的是
08:54
bottom right there the latest press contact info jobs and more and the about Apple section but what's most important
高層管理人員簡介，這裡只顯示前四位，分別是執行長、零售資深副總裁，以及另外兩位高階管理層員工。但你真正可以做的是點擊
09:01
to me is the executive profiles and this is just the top four right there this is the CEO the senior vice president of
這些人的連結，了解他們的學歷背景和經歷是什麼。再次強調，了解是誰在掌舵、是誰掌控這一切非常重要，所以研究管理層
09:08
retail and then the other two top management employees there but what you can actually do is Click on each one of
最好的方法之一就是查看投資者關係頁面，並查看管理層員工的高層管理人員簡介。我知道你可能坐在這裡想，這聽起來很耗時，
09:15
these people and get a background about um what their education is what their experience is and it's very important to
確實如此。基本面股票分析沒有任何一部分是容易的，基本面股票分析沒有任何一部分是快速的，這不是你坐下來
09:24
understand again who is steering this ship who's who is basically the one in control of all this so one of the best
一個小時後就能分析完一家公司，然後說「好，我願意投資這家公司」的事情。基本面股票分析可能花你幾天，
09:30
ways to really study the management is to look at the investor relations page and look into the executive profiles of
如果你真的想深入探討，可能花你幾週的時間。願意這麼做的人非常少，這就是為什麼人們常常做出糟糕的
09:38
the management employees now I know you're probably sitting here saying this sounds time consuming well
長期投資，因為很少人真的願意這麼做，而且很多人如果在研究過程中，突然發現某個亮起紅燈的警訊，他們會感到挫折，
09:44
it is nothing about fundamental stock analysis is easy nothing about fundamental stock analysis is quick it's
然後說「不行，我最好不要投資」。但事實上，這會是一件非常好的事，因為你現在意識到了一些你平常不會發現的事情，
09:52
not something you sit down and one hour later you've analyzed a company and you go okay yep I would like to invest in
也許是因為某件事讓你警覺，你心想「你知道嗎，這真的不符合我作為投資者的核心價值觀，因此我認為我不想投資這家公司」。
09:57
this company fundamental stock analysis it's something that could take you days it could take you weeks if you really
所以做這件事非常重要，而且很耗時，會花費很多時間，實際上你想花多少時間都可以，因為你可以不斷深入細節，
10:03
wanted to dive in and go deep and so few people are are willing to do this and that is why people oftentimes make bad
了解這家企業的各個層面。這裡再舉一個投資者關係頁面的例子，這是 Mesa Rich，我相信他們是
10:11
long-term Investments because very few people are actually willing to do this and many people would get frustrated if
長期投資，因為很少有人真正願意這樣做，而且很多人如果
10:18
they were going through something and then all of a sudden something jumped out to them as a red flag and they said
他們正在經歷某件事，然後突然有什麼事情引起了他們的注意，讓他們覺得是個警訊，他們就會說
10:22
nope I better not invest but the truth is that would be a very good thing because now you're realizing something
不，我最好不要投資，但事實上，這會是一件好事，因為現在您意識到了一些事情
10:28
you would not have ordinarily realized because maybe something jumped out to you and you say you know what this
您通常不會意識到的事情，因為也許有什麼事情引起了您的注意，您會說，你知道嗎，這
10:33
doesn't really align with my core values as an investor and as a result I don't think I want to invest in this company
與我作為投資者的核心價值觀並不真正一致，因此，我認為我不想投資這家公司
10:39
so it's very important to do this and it's time consuming it's going to take a lot of time and really it can take as
所以做這件事非常重要，而且耗時，需要很多時間，而且實際上可以花費您想要的任何時間，因為您可以不斷深入研究並了解業務的各個方面
10:47
much time as you want because you can keep going into more and more detail and learning more about all aspects of the
的更多信息，所以這只是另一個投資者關係頁面的例子，這是 Mesa rich，我相信他們是
10:53
business so here's just another example of an investor relations page this is Mesa rich and I believe they are a
投資者，我建議您真正研究公司，研究基本面，並了解
11:00
commercial real estate holdings company but this one has a little bit less information they have the SEC filings
商業地產控股公司，但這家公司的資訊稍微少一點，他們有 SEC 的申報文件
11:06
the supplemental information and then the annual reports and proxy now we're going to touch on the annual reports
補充資訊，然後是年報和委託書說明書。現在我們將會談到年報
11:13
later on but this is a very important document to read but again this is one where they
稍後，但這是一份非常重要的閱讀文件，不過同樣地，這也是他們
11:19
really do a good job of stuffing it with information so if you're reading the annual report of a company I wouldn't
確實塞進大量資訊的一份文件，所以如果你正在閱讀一家公司的年報，我不會
11:27
imagine unless you really want to dive deep with it I wouldn't imagine this is the kind of thing you'd read cover to
認為——除非你真的想要深入研究——我不會認為你會從頭到尾讀完這種東西。我想我讀過 Mesa Rich 的 2016 年報
11:32
cover I think I've read the 2016 annual report for Mesa rich and it was a little over 130 pages so that I didn't read the
那份報告稍微超過 130 頁，所以我沒有讀完
11:41
whole thing what you do is you kind of skim through it and pull out the important details that you're looking
整份報告。你做的是大致瀏覽一遍，然後提取出你正在尋找的
11:45
for because most people especially if you have a couple of different companies on your list you may not have the time
重要細節，因為大多數人，特別是如果你的名單上有幾家不同的公司，你可能沒有時間
11:52
to comb through a 100 something page report so really you're going to get good at skimming and cherry picking out
仔細研讀一份一百多頁的報告，所以你真的需要擅長瀏覽並挑選出
11:58
the good details that you need to look for because unfortunately at the end of the day this really is a bit of a piece
你需要尋找的好細節，因為不幸的是，歸根究底，這真的有點像是
12:04
of marketing material for the company and they're going to have a lot of fluff in there so I want to briefly talk about
該公司的行銷材料，裡面會有很多華而不實的內容，所以我想簡單談談
12:10
Buffett's approach to fundamental stock analysis because he has a number of of core values when it comes to investing
巴菲特的基本面股票分析方法，因為他在投資
12:17
long-term companies but I wanted to share six of his that really aligned with me and ones that I agree with
長期公司方面有一些核心價值觀，但我想分享其中六個真正與我契合、
12:23
myself so number one this biggest one is the management truthful and straightforward
也是我自己認同的觀點。第一點，也是最重要的一點，是管理層對股東要誠實且坦率
12:28
with the shareholders now while this seems like a quick answer it seems like one you can answer very quickly this is
雖然這看起來像是一個簡單的答案，似乎可以很快回答，但這其實是
12:36
a very difficult question to answer because it's not like you can just Google search is Apple management
一個非常難回答的問題，因為你不能只是去 Google 搜尋「蘋果的管理層是否
12:42
truthful and straightforward with shareholders and you're going to get an answer this is the kind of thing where
對股東誠實且坦率」，然後就能得到答案。這種事情是
12:48
you have to really dig deep and do some research and maybe you're looking for apologies of some kind or missteps I
你必須深入挖掘並做一些研究的，也許你正在尋找某種道歉或失誤。我
12:57
mean really what you want to look for is that the management is honest and straightforward and they're not trying
的意思是，你真正要尋找的是管理層是否誠實坦率，他們是否沒有試圖
13:02
to sweep things under the rug so that is basically I would say that is Buffett's core value when it comes to fundamental
把事情掩蓋過去。所以這基本上，我會說這是巴菲特在基本面分析方面的核心價值觀
13:09
stock analysis and investing long term number two is another one that I've talked about frequently on my channel
股票分析與長期投資。第二點，這也是我在我的頻道上經常提到的，
13:15
and also in this course and this comes right from Warren Buffett's approach is this a business I can understand and
同樣在這門課程中，這直接源自於華倫·巴菲特的方法：這是一家我能理解並
13:21
study so if this isn't a business you can understand if you can't wrap your head around the goods and services
研究的公司嗎？所以，如果這不是一家你能理解的公司，如果你無法理解他們提供的商品和服務，
13:27
they're providing then how are you ever going to analyze their documents and understand what healthy profit margins
那麼你又要如何分析他們的文件，並了解什麼是健康的利潤率
13:33
are and things like that if you can't understand the business how could you identify a good business versus a bad
以及類似的事情呢？如果你不了解這家公司，你如何區分好公司與壞公司？
13:40
business somebody doing the same thing that they're doing there's somebody conducting business in that way or
是否有其他人從事與他們相同的業務？是否有人以同樣的方式經營生意，或
13:45
selling those specific goods and services so really one of the most important things is that you are
銷售那些特定的商品和服務？所以，真正最重要的一件事是，你正在
13:51
investing in businesses that you under understand and businesses you can analyze and study
投資於你了解、且你能分析和研究的公司。
13:56
number three is the operating history consistent and this again comes down to what I've said before is that every dog
第三點是營運歷史的一致性。這再次回到我之前說過的：每隻狗都有
14:03
has this day so you will see companies come into the Limelight but a lot of them lack consistency and for a
它出頭天的日子（三十年河東，三十年河西）。你會看到公司成為眾人焦點，但它們中的許多缺乏一致性，而對於
14:10
long-term investment it's very important that they're able to operate at a very impressive level but also consistently
長期投資來說，它們能夠在非常令人印象深刻的水平上運營，同時保持一致性，這是非常重要的，
14:17
because if it's not consistent it's not worthy of a long-term investment number four does the company have a long-term
因為如果缺乏一致性，就不值得進行長期投資。第四點，這家公司是否具有長期
14:25
competitive advantage that's another important factor to consider are they a company that is the leader of their
競爭優勢？這是另一個需要考慮的重要因素：它們是其行業的
14:30
industry or are they writing the coattails of somebody else number five is management treating shareholders
領導者，還是只是搭別人的順風車？第五點，管理層是否公平對待股東？
14:36
fairly so one example of this would be dividends or reinvestments of earnings you want to make sure that management is
這方面的一個例子是股息或盈餘再投資。你要確保管理層是
14:44
paying back the shareholders and paying them through dividends or reinvestment of earnings and not so much being greedy
透過股息或盈餘再投資回饋給股東，而不是過於貪婪，
14:50
and retaining profits for themselves the sixth thing that you're going to want to look at in terms of what Buffett looks
將利潤保留在自己手中。第六點，就巴菲特所關注的
14:56
at that is and this comes back to the idea of looking for a company with a long-term competitive Advantage is that
事項而言，你也要留意，這又回到尋找具有長期競爭優勢公司的概念：這
15:04
is the company a leader or a follower so again are they the leader of the industry are they at The Cutting Edge or
家公司是領導者還是跟隨者？同樣地，它們是行業的領導者嗎？它們是處於最前沿，還是
15:11
are they following the other leaders and trying to keep up or trying to catch up or simply just trying to pick up a
跟隨其他領導者並試圖跟上，或試圖迎頭趕上，又或者只是試圖分一杯羹？
15:17
couple of their scraps so really when you're investing long term you want to be investing in the leaders you want to
所以當你在做長期投資時，你希望投資的是領導者，你希望投資的是鏈條中最強的環節，而不是最弱的一環。所以，某樣東西的價格是
15:23
be investing in the in the strongest links not the weakest Links of a chain so the price of something is the amount
為某樣東西預期、要求或支付的金額，就投資而言，它是一部分所有權的價格。正如我們之前談到的，
15:29
of money expected required or given in payment for something and in terms of investing it is the price of a piece of
恐懼和貪婪正是改變股市價格的因素，我們將在下一模組關於股市心理學的部分更深入探討這一點，但
15:36
ownership now as we've talked about before the fear and greed are really what changed the prices on the stock
要理解供給和需求會造成價格波動，而波動性會造成更大的價格波動。這就是為什麼當你觀察科技股或生技股時，你會看到更大的
15:43
market and we're going to talk about this a lot more in the next module on the psychology of the stock market but
波動性和更大的價格波動。現在讓我問你們一個問題，假設你正在觀察一檔
15:49
understand that supply and demand create fluctuations in the price and volatility creates greater price fluctuations so
特定的股票，你正在觀察一檔科技股，接著你知道那檔股票當天
15:57
that is why when you look at maybe technology stocks or biotech stocks you're going to see much greater
跌了百分之五。是那家公司的價值跌了百分之五嗎？是他們失去了百分之五的業務嗎？還是發生了什麼
16:03
volatility and greater price fluctuations now let me ask you guys a question let's say you're looking at a
劇烈的事？事實上，在大多數情況下，答案是否定的。所以發生的是，價格在短期內改變，但
16:09
particular stock and you're looking at a Technology stock and next thing you know that stock Falls
價值在短期內其實並沒有改變。只有價格會因為股東
16:16
five percent that day did that company's value fall five percent did they lose five percent of their business or did
對那部分所有權價值的感知而改變。所以雖然價格在短期內變動，
16:23
something drastically happen the truth is in most cases no so what happens is the price changes in the short term but
但我們稍後會提到的根本或內在價值，在大多數情況下，只有在長期才會改變。所以我相信你們現在已經理解了，但身為一位
16:31
the value in the short term really does not change it's only the price that changes based on the shareholders
價值投資者，你正在做的以及我建議要做的，是真正地研究公司、研究基本面，並了解這家公司的
16:37
perceived value of what that piece of ownership is worth so while the price changes in the short
實際價值是什麼，然後只看價格並判斷這個價格是否合理，或者這個價格是否過高。接著，也許在某個時刻，你看到市場回檔或市場
16:43
term the underlying or intrinsic value which we're going to touch on later changes only in the long term in most
修正，突然間那個價格變得合理了，你會說，好吧，就它的價值來看，我認為這
16:49
cases so what you are I'm sure this is something you guys are understanding now but what you're doing as a as a value
是值得的。所以你必須理解，雖然價格在短期內變動非常劇烈，但價值——
16:57
investor and what I recommend doing is really studying companies studying the fundamentals and understanding what the
該公司的實際價值是多少，然後看看價格，說你知道，這個
17:05
actual worth is what the actual value is of this company and then just looking at the price and saying you know does this
價格合理嗎，還是這個價格太高了，然後也許在某個時候您確實看到了市場回調或市場
17:11
price make sense or is this price too high and then maybe at some point you do see a market pullback or a market
修正，突然之間這個價格就說得通了，您會說，你知道嗎，就其價值而言，我認為這是
17:17
correction and all of a sudden that price makes sense and you say you know what for what it's worth I think this is
值得的，所以您必須明白，雖然價格在短期內變化很大，但價值
17:22
worth it so you have to understand that while the price changes very drastically in the short term the value the
商譽，因為請記住，正如我們所說，賬面價值代表了那些有形資產的價值，所以任何高於賬面價值的溢價
17:30
underlying value of that ownership does not change so now on to Value so the value of something is the importance
那項所有權的內在價值並不會改變，那麼現在談談「價值」。所謂某事物的價值，指的是其重要性
17:36
Worth or usefulness of something and in terms of investing this this is the estimated monetary worth of a piece of
或有用性；而在投資方面，這是指某項所有權的預估貨幣價值。
17:44
ownership now the underlying value of this ownership does not change in the short term as we discussed it's only
正如我們討論過的，這項所有權的內在價值在短期內不會改變，
17:49
really the price that does the perceived value of that ownership or the price changes based on the emotions of fear
真正變化的只有價格——也就是對該所有權的感知價值，或隨恐懼與貪婪等情緒波動的價格。
17:56
and greed now successful investors know the value of the piece of ownership of a company and they buy when the Price Is
成功的投資者知道一家公司所有權的價值，他們在價格合適時買進，
18:04
Right they buy when the price makes sense when the perceived value is equal if not below the actual intrinsic value
在價格合理、感知價值等於甚至低於該所有權的實際內在價值時買進。
18:11
of that ownership okay so we have another red alert to discuss here and this pertains to things that you may see
好的，我們這裡還有一個「紅色警報」要討論，這與你可能在公司內部看到
18:18
going on within the company or things you may hear about that you want to watch out for you want to watch out for
或聽到、需要特別留意的事情有關。你要留意的是
18:23
Insider buying or selling and I don't want you guys to confuse this with insider trading insider trading is
內部人買進或賣出。我不希望各位將這與「內線交易」搞混。內線交易是
18:31
illegal that is when you are trading with company information that is not available to the public that is illegal
違法的，指的是利用未對公眾公開的公司資訊進行交易，那是違法的。
18:36
what I'm talking about is Insider buying and Insider buying occurs when people employed by the company are purchasing
我所說的是「內部人買進」。內部人買進是指受僱於公司的人員購買
18:43
shares of the company stock or selling shares and particularly you want to pay attention to management or what members
公司股票或賣出股票的行為，特別是你要注意管理階層或管理階層成員
18:50
of management are doing so if you saw management employees buying or selling large amounts of
的動向。所以，如果你看到管理階層員工買進或賣出大量
18:57
shares pay attention pay attention to that because if management is buying shares and putting their money where
股票，要留意，請留意這一點，因為如果管理階層正在買進股票，用真金白銀表態，
19:04
their mouth is this is a great sign that the stock has potential now on the contrary Insider selling is a bad sign
這是該股票具有潛力的極佳訊號。相反地，內部人賣出是個壞訊號，
19:11
because the truth is nobody understands the growth potential better than the management so if you were to hear a
因為事實上，沒有人比管理階層更了解公司的成長潛力。所以，如果你聽到
19:18
management employee saying that their stock is worth a certain price and then all of a sudden you see them buying
管理階層員工說他們的股票值某個價位，然後突然看到他們在今天
19:24
shares today and the stock has been in a downtrend that means that they really understand the value or the worth of
買進股票，而該檔股票一直處於下跌趨勢，這意味著他們真的了解其股票的價值或內涵，
19:31
their stock and they understand the prices well below that value and they're willing to put their money where their
並且知道目前價格遠低於那個價值，他們願意用行動證明。
19:36
mouth is it's one thing to to talk it's one thing to say oh our stock is undervalued it's another thing to
光說不練是一回事，說「哦，我們的股票被低估了」是一回事，但實際行動又是另一回事。
19:43
actually put your money where your mouth is so I'm not talking about listening to what they're saying and if a management
實際拿出真金白銀來行動，所以我不是在說聽聽他們說什麼就好
19:48
employee is saying oh our stock is significantly undervalued they are probably just saying that because it
如果管理層員工說我們的股價被嚴重低估，他們可能只是說得好聽
19:54
sounds good but if they're actually buying shares then you're going to want to pay very close attention to that
但如果他們真的在買進股票，那你就要非常注意了
19:59
because that is usually a sign that there is some significant growth potential there now this is not the same
因為這通常代表存在顯著的成長潛力，這和
20:05
as a share buyback program we're going going to discuss that in module 12 when we talk about corporate action which is
股票回購計畫不同，我們會在模組12討論公司行動時說明
20:12
all the different things a company can do that can impact the share price but I want you guys to pay attention to any
公司可以做的所有會影響股價的不同事情，但我希望你們注意任何
20:18
kind of Insider buying or selling and then we have institutional buying and this is again a little bit different an
內部人買進或賣出的情況，然後我們還有機構買盤，這又稍微不同
20:25
Institutional Investor is a large organization typically a mutual fund or a pension fund owner and in order for
機構投資者是大型組織，通常是共同基金或養老基金所有者，而為了讓
20:32
your stock to appreciate you need a healthy amount of demand so you could be holding a great stock you could find a
你的股票上漲，你需要健康的買盤需求，所以你可能持有一檔很棒的股票，你可能找到一個
20:39
great investment but without demand without people scooping up shares of that stock the price is not going to
很好的投資，但沒有需求，沒有人搶買那檔股票的股票，價格就不會
20:45
appreciate now institutional buying can significantly increase investor confidence and demand for the stock
上漲，而機構買盤可以顯著提升投資人信心和對股票的需求
20:51
because you have to remember when an Institutional Investor moves into a position or picks up shares they're
因為你要記住，當機構投資者進場建立部位或買進股票時，他們是
20:58
buying a lot of shares because they own a fund and they're spending millions of dollars buying shares of that stock so
在買進大量股票，因為他們管理一個基金，他們花費數百萬美元買進那檔股票，所以
21:05
understand that institutional buyers solely from the demand of them buying those shares alone can significantly
要理解，機構買家光是他們買進那些股票的需求本身，就足以顯著
21:11
move the stock price but on top of that understand that many investors follow the actions of the institutional
推升股價，但除此之外，要理解許多投資人會跟隨機構
21:17
investors because as we've said before we have that herd mentality out there and you have to remember that most
投資者的行動，因為正如我們之前所說，市場上存在羊群心態，而且你要記住，大多數
21:23
people do not want to make decisions for themselves they want everyone else to make the decisions for them so as a
人不想自己做決定，他們希望別人替他們做決定，所以結果
21:29
result they follow what these institutional investors are doing so you will have people invest in these stocks
他們就Follow這些機構投資者在做什麼，所以你會看到有人投資這些股票
21:34
solely for the reason that these institutional investors are buying the stock so as a result keep an eye out for
唯一的理由就是這些機構投資者正在買進，所以結果就是，要留意
21:41
institutional buying now I'm not saying to use this as a Buy Signal because if you do that then you are simply
機構買盤，我並不是說要把它當作買進訊號，因為如果你這樣做，那你只是...
21:45
following the herd but what I am saying is if you are invested in a stock and all of a sudden you see institutional
盲目跟隨大眾，但我想說的是，如果你投資了一檔股票，突然看到機構買家在掃貨
21:52
buyers scooping up shares that is a very good sign so now we're going to touch on the Wall Street analysts now as Buffett
這是一個非常好的訊號。那麼現在我們要談談華爾街分析師。正如巴菲特
21:59
has said Wall Street analysts are out there to make fortune tellers look good so as a stock market Master you will not
所說，華爾街分析師的存在是為了讓算命師看起來更準。所以作為一位股市大師，你不會
22:06
be investing based on on analyst recommendations so you're not going to open up Yahoo finance and look at the
根據分析師的建議來投資。你不會打開雅虎財經查看
22:12
latest buy and sell recommendations of analysts you're going to make your own investing decisions because you are not
分析師最新的買進或賣出建議，你會自己做投資決策，因為你不想
22:18
going to be a member of The Herd now these recommendations can however move the price of a stock so I want you guys
成為羊群的一員。然而，這些建議確實能推動股價，所以我希望各位
22:25
to especially now that you're learning about all this invest based on your own research but understand that analyst
雖然現在你們正在學習這些，要根據自己的研究進行投資，但要理解分析師的
22:32
recommendations can motivate the herd to buy or sell so understand that if you are holding a stock and all of a sudden
建議會驅使羊群買進或賣出。所以要明白，如果你持有一檔股票，突然
22:39
some analyst comes out of left field and says oh everybody has to sell this stock you're going to see The Herd sell that
有某個分析師意外地跳出來說：「噢，大家都得賣掉這檔股票」，你會看到羊群賣出那檔
22:46
stock and it really shouldn't concern you because you've done your due diligence and done your research I just
股票，而這其實不應該困擾你，因為你已經做好了盡職調查和研究。我只是
22:51
want you to understand that if a Wall Street analyst makes a buy or sell recommendation about your stock it is
想讓你們明白，如果華爾街分析師對你的股票發布買進或賣出建議，這
22:58
going to move the stock price because of that herd mentality so now we're on to value and we're going to talk about the
確實會因為那種羊群心態而推動股價。那麼現在我們來談談價值，我們將討論
23:04
types of value now there are a number of different values associated with an investment and these are the market
價值的類型。一項投資涉及許多不同的價值，分別是市場
23:11
value the book value the intrinsic value and the earnings value and we will be discussing each of these going forward
價值、帳面價值、內在價值和盈餘價值，我們接下來將會逐一討論
23:18
now so first of all we have the market value and this is likely the one that you guys are most familiar with now the
那麼首先，我們有市場價值，這可能是各位最熟悉的。股票的
23:24
market value of a stock is the price of a piece of ownership at a fixed point in time now the quotation price of a stock
市場價值是在特定時間點上，一部分所有權的價格。股票的報價
23:31
represents the market value so as I'm sure you guys can understand the market value changes every couple of seconds
就代表了市場價值。所以我相信大家都能理解，市場價值每幾秒鐘就會變動
23:37
now this is due to the current market supply and demand and market capitalization indicates the market
這是因為當前市場的供需關係，而市值（Market Capitalization）則顯示了股票的
23:44
value of a stock NOW the market value is set by the supply and demand of the market and the market value of a stock
市場價值。市場價值是由市場的供需決定的，而一檔股票的市場價值
23:53
is really a poor indicator of whether or not something is a good investment and investors out there that are not
其實並不能很好地判斷一項投資是否優良。而那些不具備...的投資者
24:00
educated on value investing in fundamental stock analysis they solely rely on the market value in making
他們接受過價值投資和基本面股票分析的教育，卻在做投資決策時，只依賴市場價值。
24:06
investment decisions these types of investors out there and these are the majority they believe that the value is
這些投資者在外面比比皆是，而且是大多數，他們相信價值等於價格，且價值一直在變動。
24:13
equal to the price and the value is changing all the time and I'm hoping by now you're beginning to realize that the
我希望到現在你已經開始意識到，內在價值其實並不會改變，變的是價格。
24:19
underlying value really does does not change it's the price that changes and the market value does not determine the
市場價值並不能決定那部分股權的內在價值。
24:26
underlying value of that piece of ownership the market value is what people are willing to pay at a certain
市場價值是人們在特定時間點，基於恐懼和貪婪的情緒願意支付的價格。
24:32
point in time based on the emotions of fear and greed and then we have the book value now the book value of a stock
現在我們來談談賬面價值。股票的賬面價值是看資產減去負債。
24:39
looks at the assets minus the liabilities so if you take the assets and subtract your liabilities that
所以如果你拿資產減去你的負債，剩下的就是你的淨值。
24:45
leaves you with your net worth now the book value on the other hand looks at the assets minus the liabilities so you
另一方面，賬面價值也是看資產減去負債，所以你會拿公司資產減去公司總負債。
24:51
would take the company assets minus total company liabilities and this would tell you what the net worth is of that
這會告訴你該公司的淨值是多少。
24:57
company now the book value provides the net worth of that piece of ownership and Book value does not account for
賬面價值提供了該部分股權的淨值，但賬面價值不計算無形資產。
25:04
intangible assets like patents and brand strength or Goodwill we're going to talk about that later on so understand this
例如專利、品牌實力或商譽，我們稍後會談到這一點，所以要明白這一點。
25:11
only accounts for the physical tangible assets of a company and many companies most of their value lies in the
它只計算公司的有形資產，而許多公司的大部分價值在於無形資產。
25:18
intangible assets so this isn't always a great indicator but this is a good thing to look at when you're trying to
所以這並不總是一個很好的指標，但在你試圖確定公司的內在價值時，這是一個很好的參考。
25:25
determine the underlying value of a company so Book value represents what a shareholder would get in theory if the
因此，賬面價值代表理論上股東在公司清算時能獲得的東西。
25:32
company was liquidated and Book value is compared to the market value to determine if the stock is overvalued or
賬面價值與市場價值相比，用以判斷股票是被高估還是低估。
25:39
undervalued now the market value will always be higher than the book value in a healthy Market but the greater the
在健康的市場中，市場價值總是高於賬面價值，但賬面價值與市場價值之間的差距越大。
25:46
difference between the book value and the market value the more of a premium you are paying but also keep in mind
你支付的溢價就越高，但也要記住。
25:52
this may be largely due to the value of those intangible assets that are not being factored into the book value of
這可能很大程度上是由於那些未計入股票賬面價值的無形資產價值。
25:59
that stock so you may be asking yourself how do you go about comparing the book value to the market value the easiest
所以你可能會問自己，該如何比較賬面價值和市場價值？分析兩者差異最簡單的方法。
26:06
way to analyze the difference between Book value and market value is to look at the price to book ratio so the way
就是觀察股價淨值比（Price to Book ratio），所以具體做法是：
26:13
you calculate this you take the market capitalization or the total market value divided by that book value and this
計算方式是將市值或總市場價值除以帳面價值，這就
26:19
gives you the price to book ratio now this isn't something you have to calculate yourself if you just Google
會得到股價淨值比。現在，你不需要自己計算這個，如果你只
26:24
search your company that you're looking at and you look for their price to book ratio you'll be able to find these
要在Google搜尋你想看的公司，然後查找他們的股價淨值比，你就能
26:30
metrics yourself without having to calculate this but I just think it's important to understand where these
自己找到這些指標，而不需要計算。但我認為了解這些
26:34
numbers are coming from so a book value of one means the market value is equal to the book value and you will likely
數字的來源很重要。所以，帳面價值為1代表市場價值等於帳面價值，而你很可能
26:41
never find a good investment with a price to book ratio of one or below you're going to find them with a
永遠不會找到股價淨值比為1或低於1的好投資。你通常會發現它們
26:48
typically you know a much higher than one especially in a bull market now the more over extended a bull market becomes
遠高於1，尤其是在牛市中。現在，牛市變得越過度
26:54
the higher The Price to Book ratio becomes and this is really the difference between what the actual
擴張，股價淨值比就越高，這其實是那些有形資產的實際
27:01
underlying value is of those tangible assets and what the market is willing to pay so here we have two examples of this
基礎價值與市場願意支付的價格之間的差異。所以這裡我們有兩個股價淨值比的
27:07
Price to Book value we're looking at Proctor and Gamble as well as Nvidia over the last five years and as I'm sure
例子。我們正在看寶僑（Proctor and Gamble）以及輝達（Nvidia）過去五年的數據，我相信
27:14
you guys know we have been in a bull market during this period And if you guys are looking for a good site to get
大家都知道，我們在這段期間處於牛市。如果你們正在尋找一個好的網站來查
27:21
The Price to Book value I recommend ycharts.com it's a free service and this is where I picked up these numbers but
股價淨值比，我推薦 ycharts.com。這是一個免費的服務，我就是從這裡抓取這些數字的。但
27:28
as you can see let's look at Procter and Gamble first back in 2013 they had a Price to Book value of 2.893 and as this
如你們所見，我們先看寶僑。在2013年，他們的股價淨值比是2.893，隨著這個
27:38
Market has become more overvalued and overextended we're now looking at a Price to Book value of 4.388 so the the
市場變得更加高估和過度擴張，我們現在看到的股價淨值比是4.388。所以實際的
27:46
actual market value has drifted further and further away from the book value of the shares now Nvidia on the other hand
市場價值已經與股票的帳面價值漸行漸遠。現在輝達這邊，
27:53
the difference is even more drastic it's more than tenfold so back in 2013 we saw a Price to Book value or Price to Book
差異甚至更劇烈，超過了十倍。所以在2013年，我們看到股價淨值比或股價淨值
28:01
ratio of 1.683 and then when I grabbed these numbers we were looking at a
比率為1.683，然後當我抓取這些數字時，我們看到的是
28:07
18.79 so more than tenfold what it was back in 2013 so people are paying a large premium for shares of Nvidia
18.79，所以是2013年時的十倍以上。因此，人們為輝達的股票支付了很高的溢價，
28:16
significantly over what those underlying tangible assets are worth now you do have to remember that a large amount of
遠高於那些基礎有形資產的價值。現在你必須記住，輝達的很大一部分
28:24
the value of Nvidia is those intangible assets as well as what they have planned for the future so that is why you're
價值來自於那些無形資產，以及他們對未來的規劃，所以這就是為什麼你會
28:31
going to see such a large deviation between the The Price to Book ratio today compared to five years ago so the
會看到今日的股價淨值比與五年前出現如此大的偏差，所以下一個數值是內在價值。現在，股票的內在價值包含了資產以及無形資產。
28:39
next value is the intrinsic value now the intrinsic value of a stock includes the assets as well as the intangible
所以，帳面價值與內在價值之間的差別在於，內在價值會包含這些無形資產，而帳面價值只包含有形資產。現在，這些無形資產
28:46
assets so the difference between the book value and the intrinsic value is that the intrinsic value is going to
包含了品牌力、客戶群、專利、專有技術、商標、版權、營運流程等等。對許多公司而言，這正是其大部分價值所在。現在，
28:52
include these intangible assets while the book value only includes tangible Assets Now these intangible assets
這些無形資產歸類於所謂的「商譽」（Goodwill），而這些無形資產的估值是基於感知的，
29:00
include the brand strength the customer base the patents the proprietary Technologies the trademarks the
因為你無法真正為其中許多事物定價。你可以做個粗略的估計，你大概知道品牌值多少錢或客戶群值多少錢，但並沒有固定的方法來
29:06
copyrights the business processes and more and for many companies this is where a lot of their value lies now
決定這些東西的價格，所以很大程度上是基於感知價值。因此，正如我們所說，這些無形資產列在商譽之下，你可以在公司的資產負債表上找到這個項目。現在，商譽代表為了
29:13
these intangible assets fall under what is called Goodwill and these intangible assets are valued based on perception
有形資產以外的無形資產而支付給一家公司的溢價。現在，解釋商譽最好的方式是透過收購的案例。所以，如果一家公司收購了另一家，
29:20
because you can't really put a price on many of these things you can you can ballpark it you know you can have a
超過帳面價值所支付的價格就代表了商譽。因為請記住，正如我們所說，帳面價值代表了那些有形資產的價值，所以無論支付了
29:26
rough idea of what the brand is worth or what the customer base is worth but there's no set way to to determine the
什麼樣的溢價超過帳面價值，都代表了商譽，或是那些無形資產的價值。所以要理解，
29:34
price of these things so largely that it is based on the perceived value so as we we said these intangible assets are
眾所周知，光是品牌名稱本身就值數十億美元。所以，這就是最好的方式來
29:41
listed under Goodwill and you will find this on the balance sheet of a company now Goodwill represents the premium paid
公司的商譽會比其他公司多，其中一個最好的例子就是可口可樂。所以，如果一家公司想要收購可口可樂，僅僅因為其品牌力
29:48
for a company for the intangible assets outside of the tangible Assets Now the best way to explain Goodwill is in terms
與品牌知名度，可口可樂就會有大量的商譽。我的意思是，想想看，你該如何開始為可口可樂這個品牌定價？它是如此地
29:56
of an acquisition so if one company acquired another the price paid above the book value would represent the
眾所周知，光是品牌名稱本身就值數十億美元。所以，這就是最好的方式來
30:03
Goodwill because remember as we said the book value represents the value of those tangible assets so whatever premium is
都將代表商譽或那些無形資產的價值，所以請理解
30:10
paid above the book value would represent the Goodwill or the value of those intangible assets so understand
商譽完全基於主觀價值，因為沒有固定的方法來確定這一點，但某些
30:16
that Goodwill is solely based on the subjective value because there's no set way to determine this but certain
公司會比其他公司擁有更多的商譽，而這方面最好的例子之一就是可口可樂，所以可口可樂
30:23
companies would have more Goodwill than others and one of the best examples of this would be Coca-Cola so Coca-Cola
如果一家公司打算收購他們，僅僅因為品牌實力
30:29
would have a lot of Goodwill if a company was looking to acquire them solely just due to the brand strength
和品牌認知度，可口可樂將擁有大量商譽，我的意思是，您甚至可以開始為可口可樂品牌估值
30:35
and the brand recognition I mean think about how could you even begin to put a value on the Coca-Cola brand it's so
嗎，它太
30:41
recognizable and that alone would be worth billions of dollars just the brand name alone so that is the best way to
具有高辨識度，單是品牌名稱就價值數十億美元，這就是最佳的
30:48
think about Goodwill is what a company would pay above the book value if they were to acquire them and then lastly we
請思考，商譽（Goodwill）是指一家公司若要收購另一家公司時，願意支付超出其帳面價值的金額。最後，我們還有
30:55
have the earnings value now equally important is the ability a company has to make money and the value of the
獲利價值（Earnings Value）。同樣重要的是，一家公司賺錢的能力，而一家公司
31:02
earnings potential of a company is known as the earnings value so earnings value is the earnings potential of a company
獲利潛力的價值被稱為獲利價值。因此，獲利價值就是一家公司的獲利潛力，
31:09
and two common metrics are used to determine the earnings value of a company and these are the two that I
我們通常使用兩個常見的指標來決定一家公司的獲利價值，這也是我
31:14
look at myself number one we've touched on a little bit already but we're going to go into a little bit more of an
自己會看的兩個指標。第一個我們之前稍微提過，但我們會再更深入
31:19
explanation of it the first is the price to earnings ratio and the second is the price to sales ratio now both of them
解釋一下。第一個是本益比（Price to Earnings Ratio），第二個是營收比（Price to Sales Ratio）。這兩者
31:27
are derivative of the market price or the market value of a stock so first of all we have the price to earnings ratio
都是衍生自股票的市價或市場價值。首先，我們有本益比，
31:33
the p e ratio weighs the current earnings value of a stock against the market value
本益比是將股票目前的獲利價值與市場價值做權衡。
31:39
so you would take the market value per share you would divide that by the earnings per share and that would give
所以你會取每股市場價值，除以每股盈餘（Earnings Per Share），這樣就會得到
31:44
you the price to earnings ratio and essentially the best way to think about this is the premium paid on one dollar
本益比。而理解這個概念最好的方式，基本上就是把它看作是為每一塊錢的
31:50
of company earnings so if you were paying for a PE of 45 that would mean you are paying forty five dollars for
公司獲利所支付的溢價。所以如果你支付的本益比是 45，那就意味著你為了
31:59
one dollar of company earnings a lot of people call this the earnings multiple this allowed you to determine if a stock
公司的一塊錢獲利支付了四十五塊錢。很多人稱此為獲利乘數（Earnings Multiple）。這能讓你判斷一檔股票
32:05
is trading on an investment basis or a speculative basis now as we said before you use the p e ratio to compare the PE
是基於投資還是投機在交易。正如我們之前所說，你使用本益比來比較
32:13
of one company to another within the same industry it's not useful outside of Industry so you wouldn't compare the PE
同產業中一家公司與另一家公司的本益比。它在產業外就不那麼有用了，所以你不應該比較
32:20
of a beverage company to a tech company you would compare a beverage company to a beverage company because each industry
飲料公司與科技公司的本益比，你應該比較飲料公司與飲料公司，因為每個產業
32:26
has what is considered to be a normal or average p e ratio so you're essentially going to Benchmark the PE of the company
都有一個被視為正常或平均的本益比。所以你基本上是在把你正在看的那家公司的本益比
32:33
you're looking at to the PE of the industry or the PE of the of the other companies within that industry or the
與該產業的平均本益比、或該產業中其他公司的本益比、或是
32:40
market leaders so I want to give you guys an example of what someone would consider to be a speculative price to
產業龍頭的本益比做基準比較。我想給各位一個例子，說明什麼是被認為投機的本益比，
32:46
earnings ratio so if we look at the performance of this industry over the last year as you can see it has
所以如果我們看這個產業過去一年的表現，如你所見，它
32:53
outperformed the S P 500 quite significantly so I grab these figures on 919 2017 but at that point the
大幅超越了標準普爾 500 指數。我在 2017 年 9 月 19 日抓取了這些數據，但在當時，
33:01
year-to-date return on the S P 500 was 17.05 percent while the year-to-date return from the Aerospace and defense
標普500指數的年初至今報酬率為17.05%，而航太與國防產業的年初至今報酬率為
33:09
industry was 41.02 percent so this has been a major outperformer and I want to try to find an investment that somebody
41.02%，因此該產業表現非常出色，而我想試著找出一項可能被認為股價處於投機性本益比的投資
33:18
might say is trading at a speculative price to earnings so the industry p e is a 23.43 so here we have a company that
該產業的本益比為23.43，這裡有一家屬於該產業的公司
33:27
falls within that industry this is mercury Systems Inc and as you can see their current price to earnings ratio is
這是Mercury Systems Inc，如你所見，他們目前的本益比是
33:34
an 84.19 so 3.6 times more expensive than the industry average somebody might look at
84.19，比產業平均貴了3.6倍，有些人看到
33:41
this and say this is a nosebleed p e ratio this is a Sky High speculative PE because as we said before the industry p
這個可能會說這是極高的本益比，是天價的投機性本益比，因為如我們之前所說，產業的本益比
33:49
e was a 23.43 compared to an 84.19 which is a much higher price to earnings ratio but now we have to stop and think about
是23.43，相比之下84.19是高得多的本益比，但現在我們必須停下來思考
33:58
the trailing versus the forward PE because this is really a great way to explain why a company might have such a
過去本益比與預期本益比的差別，因為這確實是解釋一家公司為何可能有如此高
34:05
high price to earnings ratio now the trailing p e ratio is based off of existing data from the previous year of
本益比的好方法，現在，過去本益比是基於前一年的
34:12
earnings and the default p e ratio is that trailing PE now the forward p e ratio is based on earnings expectations
營收數據，預設的本益比就是過去本益比，而預期本益比則是基於下一年度的
34:20
in the following year and remember the company may or may not live up to these expectations but as you can see here we
營收預期，請記住，公司可能達到也可能達不到這些預期，但如你所見，我們
34:28
looked at that same company their trailing PE is Sky High at 83.26 but their forward p e is a 33.3 a much lower
看了同一家公司，他們的過去本益比高達83.26，但他們的預期本益比是33.3，一個低得多的
34:37
PE but still significantly higher than the industry average maybe that PE makes a little bit more sense now I still
本益比，但仍顯著高於產業平均，也許這個本益比現在聽起來合理一點了，我仍然
34:43
would think that is a little higher than what I would be comfortable with but you can see that looking at the forward PE
會覺得比我 comfortable 的範圍高了一點，但你可以看到，觀察預期本益比
34:48
can really give you an idea of why the current or trailing p e ratio might be so high but I want you guys to remember
確實能讓你了解為何目前或過去的本益比可能如此之高，但我希望你們記住
34:56
that the forward PE is based on expectations and a company may or may not live up to these expectations so you
預期本益比是基於預期，公司可能達到也可能達不到這些預期，所以你
35:03
don't always want to take stock in the forward p e ratio of a company because it's it's essentially as good as the
不總是應該完全相信一家公司的預期本益比，因為它本質上僅與分析師對該股票的預期一樣好
35:10
analyst expectations of a stock their expectations at the end of the day and as I'm sure you guys know or you're
也就是他們最終的預期，而我相信你們知道或將會學到，公司
35:16
going to learn companies do not always live up to those expectations so now we are on to the price to earnings to
並不總是能達到那些預期，所以現在我們來談本益成長比或
35:22
growth or the peg now the PEG ratio compares the p e ratio to the anticipated five-year growth and this is
PEG，PEG比率將本益比與預期的五年成長率做比較，而這是
35:30
usually a good metric to use to kind of understand whether or not the current p e is Justified it may basically helps
這通常是用來判斷當前本益比是否合理的一個好指標，它基本上能幫助
35:37
investors determine the level of speculation involved with an investment so the way you would calculate this is
投資者判斷一項投資所涉及的投機程度。計算方式是
35:43
you would take the p e ratio divided by the earnings per share growth projected over the next five years and this gives
將本益比除以未來五年的預期每股收益增長率，這樣就得到
35:49
you the peg or the price to earnings to growth ratio now a peg of one means the p e ratio is Justified based on the
PEG，也就是本益成長比。當PEG等於1時，意味著本益比是基於
35:58
anticipated growth and the peg below one means the stock is below the fair value while a peg above one means the stock is
預期的增長而合理的；PEG低於1表示股價低於公允價值；而PEG高於1則表示股價
36:07
above the fair value so if we look at the peg of the stock from the previous example we see a peg of 3.17 which is
高於公允價值。所以，如果我們看上一個例子中股票的PEG，我們看到它是3.17，這
36:15
quite high but you do have to remember we are in a over extended bull market and looking at a breakout industry so
相當高，但你必須記住我們處於一個過度延伸的牛市，且該產業正出現突破，所以
36:23
that is why you're seeing such a high Peg but I highly recommend looking at the PEG ratio of a stock to get an idea
這就是為什麼你會看到如此高的PEG。但我強烈建議查看股票的PEG比率，以了解
36:31
of whether or not that p e ratio is Justified if you see a Sky High p e range ratio it's good to factor in the
該本益比是否合理。如果你看到一個極高的本益比，最好納入
36:38
anticipated growth to get an idea of whether or not that PE makes sense or maybe there is a high degree of
預期增長來判斷該本益比是否合理，或者該投資是否涉及高度的
36:45
speculation involved with that investment so I know what we've covered so far with the PE and the PEG ratio
投機。我知道到目前為止我們所涵蓋的關於本益比和PEG比率的內容
36:51
might be a little confusing so I want to give you guys a simple explanation of what I'm talking about here so let's say
可能有點令人困惑，所以我想要給大家一個簡單的解釋。假設
36:57
I have an ice cream stand that Nets a profit of ten thousand dollars per year and I'm trying to sell it for a list
我有一個每年淨賺一萬美元的冰淇淋攤，我試圖以
37:03
price of one million dollars So based on that figure it would take 100 years to recoup your investment and this ice
一百萬美元的標價出售。根據這個數字，你需要100年才能收回你的投資，而這個冰淇淋
37:11
cream stand has an earnings multiple or a p e ratio of 100 which is very high so I'm trying to sell this thing to people
攤的收益倍數或本益比是100，這非常高。所以我試圖把它賣給人們，
37:18
everyone's looking at it I'm telling what my net profit is they're like you're out of your mind we're not paying
每個人都在看它，我告訴他們我的淨利潤，他們說你瘋了，我們不會付
37:23
you an earnings multiple of 100 however this is a booming area and I expect to net 25 000 in the next 12 months I
100倍的收益倍數。然而，這是一個蓬勃發展的地區，我預期在未來12個月能淨賺25,000美元，
37:30
expect my earnings to grow significantly so now this ice cream stand has a forward earnings multiple or forward p e
我預期我的收益將顯著增長。所以現在這個冰淇淋攤的遠期收益倍數或遠期本益比
37:37
ratio of 40 because I expect my sales and my Revenue to increase significantly so that is really the best way to show
是40，因為我預期我的銷售額和營收將顯著增加。所以這真的是展示
37:44
the difference between a forward PE and a trailing p e ratio so while it does seem to be overvalued at a PE or an
遠期本益比和 trailing（過去）本益比之間區別的最好方式。所以，雖然它在本益比或...
37:52
earnings multiple of 100 once you consider the fact that I'm anticipating my earnings to increase significantly
如果考慮到我預期其獲利將大幅增長，那麼100倍的本益比是合理的
37:59
now it has a forward PE of 40 which is a little bit more reasonable but still probably too expensive for the average
現在它的前瞻本益比是40倍，這稍微合理一些，但對一般投資人來說可能還是太貴
38:04
investor but this is just a good example to explain what the p e ratio is and how something becomes overvalued because
但這只是解釋本益比是什麼以及東西如何變得過高的好例子
38:12
let's be honest most people out there would not pay a million dollars for an ice cream stand that Nets a profit of
因為老實說，大多數人不會花一百萬美元買一個每年淨賺一萬美元的冰淇淋攤
38:18
ten thousand dollars per year it's just not a good investment but unfortunately this is exactly what happens when people
這根本不是一筆好投資，但不幸的是，當人們投資於過高的公司時，這正是會發生的事
38:24
invest in overvalued companies it would be just like investing in this ice cream stand here where you're only turning a
這就像投資這個冰淇淋攤，你一年只賺一萬美元
38:30
profit of ten thousand dollars and you're valuing this ice cream stand at a million dollars that's what happens when
卻把這個冰淇淋攤估值為一百萬美元，當本益比進入投機性水平時就會發生這種事
38:36
the the p e ratios get into a speculative level and people are paying way too much they're just paying for
人們付出的代價太高，他們只是在為根本不存在的價值買單
38:42
Value that really isn't there so now we're on to the price to sales ratio so the PSR weighs the current earnings
現在我們來談市銷率，市銷率是根據營收來衡量當前的獲利價值
38:48
value in terms of Revenue against the market value so you take the market value per share divided by the revenue
對上市場價值，所以你用每股市值除以每股營收
38:54
per share and this gives you the price to sales ratio so Revenue per share is not a common metric used so you will
這就得到市銷率，所以每股營收不是常用的指標
39:01
likely use total sales and market capitalization but again you this is something you can typically just Google
因此你可能會用總銷售額和市值，但這通常你只要上網查
39:07
to get a figure you don't have to calculate these yourselves but it's just good to know where these numbers come
就能得到數字，你不需要自己計算，但知道這些數字從何而來有助於你自己的理解
39:13
from for your own understanding of it remember that it is common for companies to operate at or near break even so this
請記住，公司處於損益兩平或接近損益兩平是很常見的
39:20
can inflate the p e ratio as there are little or no earnings and we're going to go over an example of this now so we're
這會讓本益比膨脹，因為獲利很少或根本沒有，我們現在要來看一個例子
39:26
going to consider Amazon so as of September 19 2017 Amazon had a p e ratio
我們來看看亞馬遜，截至2017年9月19日，亞馬遜的本益比是
39:33
of 245 so that means for every 245 dollars invested you are getting one dollar of company earnings so that seems
245倍，這意味著每投資245美元，你得到公司一美元的獲利
39:42
to be very high and very speculative however Amazon is known to operate as close to break even as possible because
這看起來非常高且非常投機，然而眾所周知，亞馬遜的營運盡可能接近損益兩平
39:49
they are spending as much money as they can expanding and growing the business then we look at the PSR that gives us a
因為他們正盡可能花費大量資金來擴張和發展業務，然後我們看看市銷率
39:57
better idea of why this p e ratio is so high the PSR of Amazon was 3.16 meaning
這讓我們更了解為什麼本益比這麼高，亞馬遜的市銷率是3.16，這意味著
40:04
Amazon stock is priced at 3.16 times the annual revenue Which is far more reasonable than a p e ratio of 245.
亞馬遜股價是年營收的3.16倍，這比本益比245要合理得多。
40:14
so the PSR ratio is very useful for investigating the nosebleed p e ratios
所以PSR比率對於研究極高的本益比非常有用。
40:16
of a company and again you can also use the peg to get an idea of whether or not that p e ratio is Justified now that we
同樣地，你也可以使用PEG比率來判斷該本益比是否合理。現在這個時代，
40:24
are in an era where we're seeing a lot of companies operating at or near Breakeven it really makes the p e ratio
我們看到許多公司處於損益兩平或接近損益兩平的狀態，這真的讓本益比
40:33
um a difficult tool to use because it gives you numbers that really don't make sense or are not a good indication of
變成一個難用的工具，因為它給出的數字真的沒有意義，或者無法作為
40:40
the of the underlying value or the earnings value of that company because these companies are not interested in
該公司潛在價值或獲利能力的良好指標。因為這些公司對
40:45
turning a profit they're interested in growing and investing as much money as possible back into the business okay so
獲利不感興趣，他們感興趣的是成長，並盡可能將更多資金投資回業務中。好的，那麼
40:52
now we're going to be revisiting the balance sheet which we talked about earlier on in this course but rather
現在我們將重新探討資產負債表，我們在這門課前面已經談過，但與其
40:57
than analyzing your own balance sheet which you should have done already we're now going to talk about analyzing the
分析你自己的資產負債表（你應該已經做過了），我們現在要談的是如何分析一家
41:03
balance sheet of a company which is one of the most important documents to look at and we're going to be talking about
公司的資產負債表，這是最重要的文件之一，我們將討論
41:09
the Three Financial or the three income documents that you should analyze when it comes to fundamental stock analysis
在基本面股票分析時，你應該分析的三大財務文件或三大損益文件。
41:15
the first one being the company balance sheet so earlier we talked about the importance of creating and analyzing
第一個就是公司資產負債表。之前我們談過建立和分析
41:22
your personal balance sheet and now we will be analyzing the balance sheet of a company and as we said before just as a
個人資產負債表的重要性，現在我們將分析一家公司的資產負債表。正如我們之前所說，簡單
41:29
brief recap the balance sheet is a comparison of assets to liabilities so if you subtract their total liabilities
回顧一下，資產負債表是資產與負債的比較。所以如果你從總資產中
41:36
from their total assets that gives you an idea of the net worth or in your case if you do this yourself this gives you
減去總負債，就能了解淨值；如果是你自己做，這能讓你
41:43
an idea of your personal net worth so first of all we have assets so we will be looking at the items typically found
了解你的個人淨值。首先，我們有資產。我們將查看公司資產負債表
41:49
under the assets section of a company balance sheet so you have current assets and then non-current assets and we're
資產部分下通常找到的項目。你有流動資產，然後是非流動資產，我們
41:57
going to give some examples of these but current assets are cash and other assets that are expected to be converted to
將舉一些例子，但流動資產是現金和其他預計在一年內
42:04
cash within one year while non-current assets are long-term assets that a company expects to hold longer than one
轉換為現金的資產；而非流動資產是公司預計持有超過一年
42:11
year so the difference between those is very simple current assets they're going to be converted into cash or they're
的長期資產。所以兩者之間的區別非常簡單，流動資產將轉換為現金或它們
42:18
currently cash and that's going to be converted into cash within one year and any non-current assets these are
目前是現金，並且將在一年內轉換為現金，以及任何非流動資產，這些是
42:25
long-term Investments or assets the company holds that are not going to be converted into cash within that year now
公司持有的長期投資或資產，不會在該年度內轉換為現金。現在
42:32
the difference it's it really comes down to again think about asset liquidity um non-current assets are not as liquid
其差異，歸根結底 again 想想資產流動性，非流動資產的流動性較差
42:39
and they're not readily convertible into cash these are not things that you can just go out and sell
且不易轉換為現金，這些不是你可以直接拿出去賣的東西
42:45
um in an easy way they're not readily convertible into cash so here are some common examples of the current assets
以簡單的方式，它們不易轉換為現金。以下是一些常見的流動資產
42:52
and the non-current assets you would have listed on a company balance sheet so on the left under current assets cash
和非流動資產的例子，你會在公司資產負債表上列出。所以在左邊的流動資產下：現金
42:58
and foreign currency and a highly liquid Investments any accounts receivable or inventory these are all things that are
和外幣，以及高流動性投資，任何應收帳款或存貨，這些都是目前
43:06
currently in cash or expected to be converted into cash within the next 12 months and then under non-current assets
是現金，或預期在未來 12 個月內轉換為現金的東西。然後在非流動資產下
43:13
this is the property this is the plant the equipment this is the Goodwill the the the intangible assets like the brand
這是不動產，這是廠房，設備，這是商譽，無形資產，像是品牌
43:20
any E-liquid Investments a good example of this would be any Acquisitions and other intangible assets so obviously if
任何非流動投資，一個很好的例子是任何收購和其他無形資產。所以顯然，如果
43:29
a company has property or an operating plant or equipment this is not something they're planning on liquidating in Into
一家公司有不動產、營運廠房或設備，這不是他們計劃在未來
43:36
Cash in the next 12 months so it's considered to be a long-term asset or in in this terminology a non-current asset
12 個月內變現的東西，因此它被視為長期資產，或在此術語中，稱為非流動資產
43:44
so it's just good to understand the difference between these things so when you're looking at the balance sheet you
所以了解這些東西之間的區別是很好的，這樣當你在看資產負債表時，你
43:50
understand what a current asset is and what a non-current asset is and now we're going to look at the liabilities
就能理解什麼是流動資產，什麼是非流動資產。現在我們要來看看負債
43:57
that you're going to find on the company balance sheet so just like assets there are both current and non-current
你會在公司資產負債表上找到的負債。就像資產一樣，也有流動和非流動
44:04
liabilities so current liabilities if you haven't guessed yet these are debts that are due to creditors within the
負債。所以流動負債，如果你還沒猜到，這些是債務，在未來
44:09
next year and non-current liabilities are long-term Financial debts that are not due to creditors within the next
一年內到期，必須償還給債權人。而非流動負債是長期財務債務，在未來
44:16
year so we're going to look at examples of both of these now so on the left the current liabilities that are due in the
一年內不會到期。所以我們現在來看看兩者的例子。在左邊，流動負債，是在未來
44:24
next 12 months this would be short-term debt this would be accounts payable taxes and interest payable any declared
12 個月內到期的。這會是短期債務、應付帳款、應付稅款和應付利息、任何已宣布的
44:31
dividends so dividends before payment are considered to be current liabilities and then ensuring long-term debt so if
股利。所以在支付前的股利被視為流動負債，然後是長期債務。所以如果
44:38
there's any long-term debt that is coming to maturity it transitions from non-current liabilities over to current
任何即將到期的長期債務，會從非流動負債轉為流動負債，
44:44
liabilities because it is due within the 12-month period going forward and then the non-current liabilities the debt
因為它在未來 12 個月內到期，而到期日較遠的非流動負債，
44:50
that is due further out into the future this would be your long-term debt your bonds payable if the company has issued
則包括長期債務、公司發行的應付債券，
44:57
corporate bonds any pension liabilities and then any deferred revenues taxes or liabilities so again when you're looking
任何養老金負債，以及遞延收入、稅款或負債。因此，當您在檢視公司的資產負債表，
45:04
at the company balance sheet to nuc current versus non-current liabilities these are items you would expect to see
區分流動與非流動負債時，這些就是您預期會在
45:10
under each of those so what are you looking at when you're studying the balance sheet of a company what are the
各個類別中看到的項目。那麼，當您研究一家公司的資產負債表時，您應該關注什麼？
45:16
major things you should look at and if you guys are trying to wonder what you should be writing down these are very
您應該注意哪些主要事項？如果您想知道應該記下什麼，這些都是非常
45:23
important things to write down because I think this should be on your list of things that you're going to look for
重要的事項，因為我認為這些應該列在您分析
45:28
when analyzing a company balance sheet these are the things I consider myself and we're going to go over an example of
公司資產負債表時的清單上。這些是我個人會考量的事，我們稍後會舉一個例子來說明。
45:33
this shortly number one our total asset that's growing each year because you're going to want to see assets growing
第一，總資產是否逐年增長，因為您希望看到資產增長。
45:39
number two are total liabilities growing each year and three is very important as well our liabilities growing faster than
第二，總負債是否逐年增長。第三，負債增長速度是否
45:48
assets because that would mean they are taking on more debt than they are taking on cash or think that could be easily
快於資產，這點也很重要，因為這意味著他們承擔的債務多於現金，或易於
45:54
converted into Cash number four is inventory growing or shrinking you do not want to see a company sitting on too
轉換為現金的資產。第四，存貨是增加還是減少，您不希望看到公司積壓過多
46:01
much inventory number five does the company have enough cash to cover current liabilities so one of the most
存貨。第五，公司是否有足夠的現金來支付流動負債？因此，您需要考量的最重要事項之一
46:08
important things you want to consider is whether or not the company has the ability to pay off the debt or the
是公司是否有能力償還其目前的
46:15
liabilities they currently have and you're going to want to ideally have them be able to cover their debt solely
債務或負債。理想情況下，您希望他們能僅憑流動資產
46:21
with their current assets not just their non-current assets number six what type of assets does the company own so are
支付債務，而不僅僅是依靠非流動資產。第六，公司擁有什麼類型的資產？他們的
46:27
most of their assets current assets that are currently in cash or convertible to cash in the next 12 months or are most
資產大部分是流動資產（目前是現金或可在 12 個月內轉換為現金），還是大部分
46:34
of their assets non-current assets that are not readily available in formal in the form of cash and number seven is
是非流動資產（無法隨時以現金形式取得）？第七，債務主要是
46:41
most of the debts short-term or long term or current liabilities versus non-current liabilities these are the
短期還是長期？或者說，流動負債與非流動負債的比例如何？這些就是
46:48
seven questions I ask myself when looking at the assets and liabilities of the balance sheet of a company and I
當我在看一家公司的資產負債表時，我會問自己的七個問題，而我
46:56
highly encourage you guys to includes some if not all of these in your analysis of a company balance sheet so
非常鼓勵你們在分析公司資產負債表時，至少要包含其中一些，如果沒有全部的話。
47:03
the next section of the balance sheet we will discuss is the stockholders Equity now the stockholders Equity is the net
接下來我們要討論資產負債表的下一個部分，也就是股東權益。股東權益是淨值，
47:10
worth or what is left over when all liabilities are covered by the assets so when you take the simple equation of
或者是當所有負債都被資產涵蓋後所剩下的部分。所以當你使用簡單的公式：
47:16
assets minus liabilities equals net worth well net worth is also known as stockholders equity and a general rule
資產減去負債等於淨值，嗯，淨值也被称为股東權益。一個經驗法則是
47:24
of thumb is that stockholders Equity should always be growing and if it is not this may not be a financially
股東權益應該要持續增長。如果沒有，這可能不是一個財務
47:31
healthy company to invest in so look at the stockholders Equity over the last five to ten years and one thing that I
健康的公司可以投資的。所以看看過去五到十年的股東權益，而我
47:38
always look for is consistent double-digit growth in stockholders Equity over a long period of time again
總是尋找的是在很長一段時間內，股東權益持續的兩位數增長。再次
47:46
remember it's very important to find consistency because you may see a company doing very well in the short
記住，找到一致性非常重要，因為你可能會看到一家公司在短期內
47:52
term but it's important for a long-term investment to see a good track record okay so now we're going to take a look
表現非常好，但對於長期投資來說，看到良好的歷史紀錄是很重要的。好的，現在我們要來看看
47:59
at the balance sheet of Google and I will say they have one of the best balance sheets going so they were a
Google 的資產負債表，我會說他們擁有最頂尖的資產負債表之一。所以他們是
48:05
perfect example for this here and Google is one of my long-term Investments and uh once you guys take a look at the
這裡一個完美的例子，而 Google 是我的長期投資之一，而且嗯，一旦你們看看這裡的
48:12
balance sheet here I think you'll understand why I see they have very good very healthy balance sheet and they're
資產負債表，我想你們就會明白為什麼我說他們有非常好、非常健康的資產負債表，而且他們在
48:19
very well run financially so this is what a balance sheet is actually going to look like and I kind of simplified
財務上管理得非常好。所以這就是資產負債表實際的樣子，我為了這張投影片稍微
48:26
this just for the slide here to fit everything on here but this is from Morningstar this was a morning star view
簡化了一下，以便把所有東西都放上去，但這是來自晨星（Morningstar）的，這是晨星對
48:32
of the balance sheet so if you go on morningstar's website and look for your balance sheets you'd be able to find the
資產負債表的看法。所以如果你上晨星的網站並尋找你的資產負債表，你將能找到
48:38
balance sheet of most of the larger companies but as you can see on the left where those arrows are
大多數大型公司的資產負債表。但如你所見，在左邊那些箭頭的地方，
48:45
if you click on those arrows it will provide you more of a breakdown but for everything we're doing here I pretty
如果你點擊那些箭頭，它會提供更多明細，但對於我們在這裡所做的一切，我大概
48:51
much just needed the overview of the current assets versus the non-current assets the current liabilities versus
只需要流動資產與非流動資產的概覽、流動負債與
48:57
the non-current liabilities and then the stockholders Equity so as you can see one of the first things I look for is
非流動負債的概覽，以及股東權益。所以如你所見，我首先尋找的事情之一是
49:05
our total assets growing and total assets are growing consistently and it was a 15.7 percent year-over-year return
我們的總資產在增長，而且總資產持續增長，年均回報率為 15.7%
49:13
on average and what I look for is a double digit return so that checks that off on my box then we look for total
平均而言，而我尋找的是兩位數的回報率，所以這符合我的標準，接著我們看總負債
49:21
liabilities to see if they are growing and they are growing at a much slower rate so total liabilities are growing at
以確認它們是否也在增長，而它們的增長速度要慢得多，因此總負債的年均
49:28
5.76 percent year over year on average versus the 15.7 percent growth for the total assets and then we look at
增長率為 5.76%，相比之下，總資產的增長率為 15.7%，然後我們再看
49:37
stockholders Equity again we want to see this growing at a double digit rate and over the last five years we're looking
股東權益，同樣地，我們希望看到它以兩位數的速度增長，而在過去五年
49:44
at here the there has been an 18.8 percent year-over-year growth of the stockholders equity on average which is
我們在此看到，股東權益的年均增長率為 18.8%，這
49:51
fantastic and then another important thing to consider was um whether or not their current assets which as you
非常出色，另一個需要考慮的重要因素是，他們的流動資產，如你
49:57
remember is what is currently held in cash or converted to cash in the next 12 months covers their current liabilities
所記得的，是指目前持有的現金或在未來 12 個月內可轉換為現金的資產，是否涵蓋了他們的流動負債
50:04
so looking at fiscal year 2016 they had a 6.3 to 1 coverage ratio of current assets to current liabilities which is a
所以看 2016 財政年度，他們的流動資產對流動負債的覆蓋率為 6.3 比 1，這是
50:13
great coverage so you always want to make sure their current assets cover their current liabilities and the
一個很好的覆蓋率，所以你總是希望確保他們的流動資產能覆蓋流動負債，而且
50:19
greater that number is above one the better so 6.3 to 1 that is fantastic coverage of the liabilities and then
這個數字越大於 1 就越好，所以 6.3 比 1，這是對負債的絕佳覆蓋，接著
50:27
when we look at their assets we see most of their assets are current assets which is good and most of their debts are
當我們看他們的資產時，我們看到他們的大部分資產都是流動資產，這很好，而且他們的大部分債務
50:33
current debts as well so they're not holding a lot of long-term debt so this is an example of a fantastic balance
也是流動債務，所以他們沒有持有大量長期債務，所以這是一個出色資產負債表的
50:39
sheet this is one of the main reasons why I'm heavily invested long term in Google is because they just have a
範例，這是我長期大量投資谷歌的主要原因之一，就是因為他們擁有一張
50:45
fantastic balance sheet so this is what you are looking for and this is an example of what it would be like to go
出色的資產負債表，所以這就是你要尋找的，這是一個分析
50:52
through and analyze the assets and liabilities of a company balance sheet so now we're going to take a look at a
公司資產負債表的資產和負債的範例，那麼現在我們要來看一張
50:59
balance sheet that is not so good this is Rite Aid so first of all the major red flag if you look at stockholders
不太好的資產負債表，這是 Rite Aid，首先，最大的警訊是，如果你看股東
51:04
Equity back in 2013 and 2014 Rite Aid had negative stockholders equity which is something you never want to see that
權益，在 2013 和 2014 年，Rite Aid 的股東權益為負，這是你永遠不想看到的，這
51:13
means that there are liabilities exceeded their assets so then let's take a look at the current fiscal year here
意味著他們的負債超過了資產，那麼讓我們來看看當前的財政年度
51:18
and get an idea of whether or not their current assets are covering their current liabilities and as we said
並了解他們的流動資產是否涵蓋了流動負債，正如我們所說
51:25
Google's was well above six and when we look at Rite Aid their coverage ratio is a 1.68 which is not a very good coverage
Google 的流動比率遠高於 6，而當我們看 Rite Aid 時，他們的流動比率是 1.68，這不是一個很好的流動比率
51:33
ratio so essentially their current assets are just above their current liabilities and you want to see a
所以本質上他們的流動資產僅略高於流動負債，而你希望看到的
51:40
coverage ratio above that figure there I tend to want to see at least above a two a two to one ratio of coverage of
流動比率要高於那個數字，我傾向於希望至少看到兩倍以上，也就是流動資產對流動負債的兩倍覆蓋率
51:48
current assets to current liabilities so 1.68 not very good coverage but then things get even worse when we look at
所以 1.68 是不太好的覆蓋率，但當我們看總資產和總負債時，情況變得更糟
51:55
total assets and total liabilities not just the current ones and their total assets barely cover total liabilities so
不僅僅是流動的部分，他們的總資產幾乎無法覆蓋總負債，所以在
52:02
in the current fiscal year they have a 1.05 to 1 coverage on total liabilities and then when you look at the assets you
目前的會計年度，他們對總負債的覆蓋率是 1.05 比 1，然後當你查看資產時
52:10
see most of their assets are non-current assets so most of the assets they hold are not assets they're looking to
你會發現他們的大部分資產都是非流動資產，所以他們持有的大部分資產
52:18
convert into Cash anytime soon or they're not readily convertible Into Cash what we have determined looking at
並不是他們打算很快轉換成現金的資產，或者說這些資產不易變現。我們查看
52:24
this balance sheet is that Rite Aid is drowning in debt they have way too many current and non-current liabilities and
這張資產負債表後得出的結論是，Rite Aid 正深陷債務泥沼，他們有太多流動和非流動負債
52:31
they don't have healthy coverage of those liabilities so this is not something you'd want to see on the
而且他們沒有足夠的覆蓋率來應對這些負債，所以這不是你在
52:37
balance sheet of a long-term investment now I want to take what we just looked at and explain this more simply so let's
長期投資的資產負債表上想看到的東西。現在，我想用我們剛剛看過的內容來做個更簡單的解釋，所以讓我們
52:44
take a look at this and pretend that this was the balance sheet of your own house so let's say for example Google is
來看看這個，假設這是你自己家的資產負債表。例如，假設 Google
52:51
your balance sheet and the balance sheet of Google is the balance sheet of your own household you would have twelve
是你的資產負債表，Google 的資產負債表就是你自家的資產負債表，你會有
52:56
thousand nine hundred 18 dollars sitting in cash so your stocks would be your current assets you have ninety two
12,918 美元的現金，所以你的股票就是你的流動資產，你有
53:02
thousand four hundred ninety dollars in Investments that are easily convertible into cash and then we're going to
92,490 美元的投資，這些投資很容易轉換成現金，然後我們將
53:08
consider your home equity is your non-current assets these are your long-term assets so you have sixty two
把你的房屋淨值視為你的非流動資產，這些是你的長期資產，所以你有
53:14
thousand eighty nine dollars built up in home equity and then your credit card debt or your current liabilities is at
62,089 美元的房屋淨值，然後你的信用卡債務或你的流動負債是
53:21
sixteen thousand seven hundred fifty six dollars so first thing we notice is your cash just about covers what you have on
16,756 美元。所以我們首先注意到的是，你的現金大約可以支付你信用卡上的欠款
53:29
your credit cards but if you consider what your short-term Investments are that would easily cover your credit card
但如果你考慮到你的短期投資，這些投資可以輕易覆蓋你的信用卡債務
53:34
debt and your long-term debt or your non-current liabilities is at eleven thousand seven hundred five dollars that
而你的長期債務或你的非流動負債是 11,705 美元，那
53:41
would be like the mortgage on your home so all in all once you figure all of your liabilities and your assets you are
就像是你房子的抵押貸款。總之，一旦你計算完你所有的負債和資產，你的
53:48
sitting with a net worth of one hundred thirty nine thousand thirty six dollars so if Google was your own personal
淨值是十三萬九千零三十六美元。所以如果 Google 是你個人的
53:55
balance sheet it'd be a pretty good balance sheet now we'll take a look at Rite Aid so if
資產負債表，那會是一張相當漂亮的資產負債表。現在我們來看看 Rite Aid，如果
54:00
Rite Aid was your own personal balance sheet you would have 245 dollars in cash and then your home equity what you have
Rite Aid 是你個人的資產負債表，你會有 245 美元的現金，然後你的房屋淨值，也就是你在房子裡
54:07
built up in your house or your non-current assets at six thousand five hundred twenty eight dollars then we see
累積的部分，或是你的非流動資產，是六千五百二十八美元。然後我們看到
54:13
that your credit card debt or your current liabilities is at three thousand dollars so your cash does not come
你的信用卡債務，或是你的流動負債，是三千美元。所以你的現金完全不足以
54:19
anywhere near covering your current liabilities so you would need to sell off some of your short-term investments
支付你的流動負債，因此你需要出售一些你的短期投資
54:25
in order to cover what your credit card debt is and then when you look at your mortgage or your long-term debt
來支付你的信用卡債務。然後當你看看你的抵押貸款，或是你的長期債務
54:31
obligations or your long-term or non-current liabilities that's at just under eight thousand dollars so if you
義務，或是你的長期或非流動負債，那將近是八千美元。所以如果你
54:39
combine your cash and your current assets it will not cover your long-term debt obligations so once you do all the
把你的現金和流動資產加起來，也無法支付你的長期債務義務。所以一旦你把這些
54:47
numbers on this if you were Rite Aid you would have a net worth of six hundred fourteen dollars look at the DraStic
數字都算出來，如果你是 Rite Aid，你的淨值會是六百一十四美元。看看這兩份
54:53
difference between these two balance sheets look at the fact that Rite Aid has 245 dollars in cash and that's
資產負債表之間的巨大差異。看看 Rite Aid 有 245 美元現金這個事實，而這
55:01
almost that's over a third of their net worth is what they're holding in cash that is not good when they have such a
幾乎是他們淨值的三分之一，是他們持有的現金。當他們的現金如此之少，而 Google 的淨值是他們持有現金的 10 倍以上時，這
55:06
small amount of cash versus Google where their net worth is more than 10 times what they're holding in cash so this is
是不好的。所以這是
55:14
a good way to see what a good balance sheet looks like and then a lousy balance sheet and Rite Aid has a very
一個很好的方法，可以看看好的資產負債表長什麼樣子，以及一份糟糕的資產負債表。而 Rite Aid 有一份非常
55:20
lousy balance sheet because they don't have a lot of current assets and they just have way too much debt they are
糟糕的資產負債表，因為他們沒有太多流動資產，而且他們的債務實在太多了，他們
55:26
drowning in debt so this is what you want to look for in a balance sheet you want to look for a balance sheet closer
深陷債務之中。所以這是你在資產負債表中要尋找的東西，你要尋找的資產負債表要更接近
55:31
to Google than you would be looking for a balance sheet closer to what Rite Aid has here so the next statement we will
Google，而不是更接近 Rite Aid 這裡的樣子。所以我們下一份要
55:37
be analyzing is the income statement now another important document to analyze is this income statement and this document
分析的報表是損益表。現在，另一份要分析的重要文件是這份損益表，這份文件
55:44
reports the revenues and expenses of a business as well as what areas they are coming from so the income statement
報告了一家企業的營收和費用，以及它們來自哪些領域。所以損益表
55:50
gives a detailed explanation behind the net income and remember as we said before net income is your Revenue minus
詳細解釋淨利潤的背後因素，請記住，如我們之前所說，淨利潤是您的收入減去
55:57
your expense so this really paints a picture of where the revenue is coming from and where those expenses are coming
您的支出，因此這能清楚描繪出收入的來源以及各項支出的來源。
56:04
from now as far as the income statement goes the revenue section is broken down into total revenue and then cost of
現在，就損益表而言，收入部分分為總收入以及銷貨成本，
56:10
Revenue and this is very easy to understand total revenue is the total sales of the goods and services the
這非常容易理解。總收入是公司銷售商品和服務的總額，
56:17
company offers and the cost of Revenue is what it costs the company to obtain those sales so what we will remember
而銷貨成本是公司為了獲得這些銷售所付出的成本。所以我們在這裡要記住的是，
56:24
here is that your gross profit is equal to your total revenue minus your cost of Revenue so all the money you made on the
您的毛利等於您的總收入減去您的銷貨成本。因此，您從商品和服務銷售中賺取的所有金額，
56:32
sales of your goods and services minus what it actually costs you to obtain those sales is what's going to be known
減去您實際為了獲得這些銷售所付出的成本，就是所謂的
56:38
as your gross profit so following our example looking at Google we're going to analyze Google's income statement so as
毛利。因此，沿用我們的例子，觀察 Google，我們將分析 Google 的損益表。所以如
56:45
you can see here we have the last three years of Google's revenue total revenue cost of Revenue
您在這裡所見，我們有 Google 過去三年的收入、總收入、銷貨成本，
56:52
and then their gross profit which makes up their income statement so when looking at these statements they can be
以及他們的毛利，這些構成了他們的損益表。因此，當查看這些報表時，它們可以
56:57
broken down into annual and quarterly statements and it's really a good idea to look at both of these because as I
分為年度報表和季度報表。同時查看這兩者確實是個好主意，因為正如我
57:04
said you want to look at five if not 10 years of data as well as the most recent four quarters to get an idea of the
所說，您需要查看五年（如果不是十年）的數據，以及最近的四季，以了解
57:10
bigger picture as well as what's been going on in the shorter term so the biggest thing is you want to see total
整體概況以及短期內的發展情況。所以最重要的是，您希望看到總收入
57:17
revenue increasing preferably at a double digit rate now do remember that as you can see on the top here all
持續增長，最好是以兩位數的速度增長。請記住，正如您在頂部所見，所有
57:23
numbers are in thousands but I'm just going to read them as they are just for the sake of not confusing myself to be
數字都是以千為單位，但為了避免讓自己感到困惑，老實說，我會直接照數字讀出來。
57:30
honest with you but looking at this here we see total revenue for 2014 at 66 billion we see total revenue for 2015 at
但觀察這裡，我們看到 2014 年的總收入為 660 億美元，2015 年的總收入為
57:38
just about 75 billion and then for 2016 over 90 billion dollars so we are seeing consistent growth of total revenue but
約 750 億美元，然後 2016 年超過 900 億美元。所以我們看到總收入持續增長，但
57:47
what's equally important is their gross profit because you could see growing total revenue but if the cost of Revenue
同樣重要的是他們的毛利，因為您可能看到總收入增長，但如果銷貨成本
57:55
is growing faster than the growth of the total revenue you're not going to see these figures carrying true under gross
的增長速度快於總收入的增長，您將不會看到這些數字在毛利中真實體現。您會看到收入增長，但同樣非常重要（甚至更重要）的是，他們實際的
58:01
profit you'll see growing Revenue but what's very important as well if not more important is what their actual
獲利方式。你會看到營收成長，但同樣重要，甚至更重要的是他們實際的
58:07
profit is on these numbers so you want to see gross profit growing at a double digit rate as well because if total
從這些數字來看利潤，您希望看到毛利率也以兩位數的速度增長，因為如果總營收
58:14
revenue is growing and gross profit is not you need to look at the cost of Revenue and it's possible that their
在增長而毛利率沒有，您就需要檢視營業成本，有可能是他們的
58:21
cost of Revenue is out of control so total revenue for Google grew 13.6 percent from 2014 to 2015 and 20.3
營業成本失控了，所以 Google 的總營收從 2014 年到 2015 年增長了 13.6%，從 2015 年到 2016 年增長了 20.3%
58:29
percent from 2015 to 2016.
個百分點。
58:33
so those are great numbers and then we'll consider gross profit we want to make sure that
這些是很棒的數字，接下來我們考慮毛利率，我們要確保
58:36
the cost of Revenue is not too high so gross profit after the cost of Revenue is considered grew 16.1 percent from
營業成本不會太高，所以在扣除營業成本後的毛利率從 2014 年到 2015 年增長了 16.1%，然後從 2015 年到 2016 年增長了 17.7%。
58:44
2014 to 2015 and then 17 points seven percent from 2015 to 2016.
這些是極好的數字，這是我們所看到的優異增長，所以總營收的增加
58:50
so these are fantastic numbers that is excellent growth to be seeing so increasing total
導致了毛利率的提升，這意味著營業成本是合理的，所以這些是
58:54
revenue is resulting in an increase in gross profit meaning the cost of Revenue is reasonable so these are numbers
您會想要看到的數字，您會希望確保總營收也能轉化為毛利率的增長，
59:01
you're going to want to see you're going to want to make sure total revenue converting into gross profit growth as
因為否則您需要確保營業成本的增長速度沒有超過總營收的增長速度。
59:07
well because otherwise you need to make sure the cost of Revenue is not outpacing the growth of total revenue
正如我們在 Google 的例子中所看到的，我們在損益表的這三個類別中都看到了非常健康的增長。
59:13
and as we can see with Google we are seeing very healthy growth across all three categories of the income statement
現在營業費用分為研發（R&D）、銷售及管理（SG&A），以及
59:20
now operating expenses are broken down into research and development selling General and administration and then
非經常性費用和其他費用，所以 R&D 是公司花在新產品或服務的
59:27
non-recurring as well as other expenses so r d is the amount that the company is spending on research and development of
研究與開發上的金額，而 SG&A 或銷售及管理費用，則是因產品或服務推廣、
59:34
new products or services and then SG a or the selling General and administrative are the expenses incurred
銷售和交付以及公司管理而產生的費用，接著，
59:41
from product or service promotion sales and delivery as well as the company management expenses and then a
非經常性費用是指預期不會經常發生的支出，這就是為什麼它被標記為非經常性，而其他費用則是
59:48
non-recurring expense is not expected to occur regularly that is why it's labeled as non-recurring and other expenses are
間接費用，您甚至可能沒有看到它們被單獨列出，因為通常它們會與 SG&A 合併在一起。
59:54
the overhead expenses which you may not even see listed because oftentimes they're tied in with the SG a
現在再次重申，您需要像我說的那樣，同時關注年度和季度數據，但我們這裡將查看
1:00:01
now again like I said you want to look at this annually as well as quarterly but we're going to be looking at the
年度數字，所以首先您要看的是那些非經常性費用，如果您看到有任何費用被列出
1:00:06
annual numbers here so first thing you want to look at is those non-recurring expenses if you see any expenses listed
年度數字。首先要注意的是那些非經常性支出，如果你看到任何支出被列為
1:00:13
under the non-recurring section of the income statement it is a good idea to investigate these expenses and find out
在損益表的非經常性項目下，最好調查這些費用並找出
1:00:19
what these non-recurring expenses are the biggest thing you want to see is rising operating expenses resulting in
這些非經常性費用是什麼。最需要關注的是營業費用上升是否伴隨
1:00:25
Rising Revenue because if operating expenses are rising while revenue is flat or falling this is a sign of poor
營收成長，因為如果營業費用上升而營收持平或下降，這是財務
1:00:32
financial health and as we already saw on the operating income we are seeing healthy Revenue we are seeing healthy
健康狀況不佳的訊號。正如我們在營業利益上看到的，我們看到健康的營收，看到健康的
1:00:39
Rising Revenue so that's a good indicator that the expenses are under control and they are reasonable so
營收成長，這是費用受到控制且合理的良好指標，所以
1:00:45
operating income is the company earnings before interest in taxes so at the bottom we see operating income or loss
營業利益是公司支付利息與稅前的盈餘，因此在底部我們看到營業利益或虧損
1:00:52
and Google is currently not operating at a loss as you can tell so operating income is the company earnings before
而Google目前並未處於虧損狀態，由此可見營業利益是公司支付
1:00:59
interest and taxes are paid and operating income should be keeping Pace with Revenue growth now as far as the
利息與稅之前的盈餘，營業利益應與營收成長保持同步。至於
1:01:06
research and development as well as the selling General and administrative expenses go these you want to see
研發費用以及銷售、一般與管理費用，這些你希望看到
1:01:11
growing at a similar rate as the revenue growth and if there is ever a sudden increase in these expenses this is again
以與營收成長相似的速度成長，如果這些費用突然增加，這再次是
1:01:18
a good indicator that it's time to do some investigating and really uncover why it is those expenses are growing so
進行調查並真正找出這些費用快速成長原因的
1:01:24
rapidly so then we have the income from continuing operations section of the income statement so at the top we have
良好指標。接著我們看到損益表的持續營業部門，頂部是
1:01:31
total other income slash expenses net this represents interest income from cash and cash equivalents and then this
其他收入／費用淨額總計，這代表來自現金及約當現金的利息收入，然後損益表的
1:01:40
section of the income statement outlines the tax and interest expenses so the net income from continuing operations that's
這部分概述稅賦與利息費用，因此持續營業的淨收入，即
1:01:47
the figure at the bottom this should be equal to the total net income assuming there are no non-recurring events or
底部的數字，應等於總淨收入，假設沒有非經常性事件或
1:01:53
expenses so what exactly is a non-recurring event the most common one is a discontinued operation which
費用。那麼什麼是非經常性事件？最常見的是停業部門，這
1:02:01
results when a segment of the business is sold or abandoned and at this point this income is no longer a result of
發生在企業某個部門被出售或廢棄時，此時這項收入不再來自
1:02:07
continuing operations so that is considered to be a non-recurring event and it can no longer be factored into
持續營業，因此被視為非經常性事件，不能再計入
1:02:13
the continuing operation section of the income statement so that is why you would see a non-recurring event listed
損益表的持續營業部門，這就是為什麼你會看到非經常性事件被列為
1:02:20
as if some part of the business was sold or abandoned so what are you looking for in the income statement these are the
企業某部分被出售或廢棄的情況。那麼你在損益表中尋找什麼？這些是
1:02:26
eight things that I look for and again this would be a good thing to write down so you can start building your list when
這是我會關注的八個要點，建議你把它寫下來，這樣在分析財務報表時就能開始建立自己的清單
1:02:31
you're analyzing these financial statements number one is the company increasing sales and revenue number two
第一是公司是否增加銷售額和營收。第二是
1:02:38
is gross profit keeping up with total revenue because remember if your gross profit is increasing and your total
毛利是否與總營收同步增長，因為請記住，如果你的毛利在增加，但總
1:02:45
revenue is flat you need to consider what the operating expenses are number three are we seeing double-digit Revenue
營收持平，你就需要考慮營業費用是多少。第三，我們是否看到營收出現兩位數
1:02:51
growth you want to make sure we're seeing double-digit consistent growth number four is the cost of Revenue
增長？你要確保我們看到的是持續的兩位數增長。第四，營收增長的成本是否
1:02:56
growth reasonable because if that cost of Revenue growth is out of control that may be eating into the gross profit and
合理？因為如果營收增長的成本失控，可能會侵蝕毛利，
1:03:03
then that may be why total revenue is not the same as the gross profit the the growth of the gross profit versus the
這也可能導致總營收的增長不如毛利增長，即毛利增長與
1:03:10
growth of total revenue number five are there any non-recurring expenses because if you see a non-recurring expense that
總營收增長的差異。第五，是否有任何非經常性支出？因為如果你看到非經常性支出，
1:03:16
is something you're going to want to investigate number six as an increase in Revenue resulting in an increase in
這是你需要深入調查的。第六，營收增加是否帶動
1:03:22
operating income because as Revenue increases you should see operating income increasing at a similar rate
營業收入增加？因為隨著營收增加，你應該看到營業收入以相似的速率增長。
1:03:29
number seven is the company maintaining profitability and then number eight are any of the expense items increasing at
第七是公司是否維持盈利能力。第八是，任何費用項目是否以
1:03:36
an abnormal rate based on prior years or quarters you don't want to see any drastic fluctuations in these expense
相較於往年或季度異常的速度增加？你不希望看到這些費用
1:03:43
items you want to see them consistently growing at a healthy rate over time okay so the third financial statement to
項目出現劇烈波動，你希望看到它們隨著時間推移以健康的速率持續增長。好的，那麼要分析的第三份財務報表是
1:03:50
analyze is the cash flow statement now the cash flow statement is another important document to analyze and the
現金流量表。現在，現金流量表是另一份重要的分析文件，而
1:03:57
three documents I study are the balance sheet which we covered the income statement we just talked about and now
我研究的三份文件分別是我們已經講過的資產負債表、我們剛剛討論過的損益表，以及現在
1:04:02
we're going to talk about the cash flow statement and later we are going to discuss the quarterly earnings report
我們要談的現金流量表，稍後我們還會討論季度財報，
1:04:07
and the quarterly earnings documents provides an update on all three of these financial statements so it's going to
季度財報會更新這三份財務報表的狀況，所以它會
1:04:13
update the balance sheet the income statement and the cash flow statement so basically once you understand these
更新資產負債表、損益表和現金流量表。基本上，一旦你理解了這
1:04:20
three documents you will be able to interpret the quarterly earnings report so we're basically building all three of
三份文件，你就能解讀季度財報。所以我們基本上是在建立這三個
1:04:26
these blocks and you're going to be able to then just take a look at that quarterly earnings report and track the
模塊，然後你就能夠直接查看季度財報並追蹤
1:04:33
overall progress to get an idea of the Financial Health of that company and whether they're continuing on the same
整體進展，以了解該公司的財務狀況，以及他們是否持續在相同的
1:04:39
track so this financial document shows how changes in the balance sheet have
軌道上。因此，這份財務文件顯示了資產負債表的變動如何
1:04:44
affected cash and cash equivalents so essentially this illustrates the amount of cash and cash equivalents entering
影響現金及現金等價物。所以，這基本上說明了流入
1:04:51
and leaving a company this is the money going in and then the money going out so your personal cash flow statement which
和流出公司的現金及現金等價物數量。這是流入的錢，然後是流出的錢。所以，你個人的現金流量表，
1:04:58
is again something you guys should look at would be what you earn each month versus what you are spending each month
這也是你們應該檢視的內容，會顯示你每個月的收入與支出。
1:05:03
so that's the same thing we're doing but just for a company this time and this statement shows you where money is
所以，我們現在做的事情是一樣的，只是這次是針對一家公司。而這張報表讓你看到錢是從哪裡來的，
1:05:08
coming from and how much money is being spent and essentially this is going to give you an idea of how the company is
以及有多少錢被花掉了。這基本上會讓你了解公司是如何
1:05:15
operating and if they have healthy cash management obviously if the company is spending all
營運的，以及他們是否有健康的現金管理。顯然，如果一家公司花光了
1:05:20
the money they're earning or spending more money than they're earning think about what that would mean for your own
他們賺的所有錢，或者花的錢比賺的還多，想想看這對你自己的
1:05:25
life if you were in a situation where you were spending what you were earning you would be paycheck to paycheck and if
生活意味著什麼。如果你處於花多少賺多少的狀況，你會只能勉強糊口；而如果你
1:05:31
you were spending more than you are earning you would be going into debt so these are not things you want to be
花的錢比賺的還多，你就會開始負債。所以，你不希望在公司的
1:05:35
seeing from the cash flow statement of a company so what separates the cash flow statement from the other income
現金流量表上看到這些情況。那麼，現金流量表與其他
1:05:41
statements is that it does not include future operations on credit the balance sheet and the income statement include
損益表的區別在於，它不包含未來的信用交易。資產負債表和損益表包含
1:05:48
both cash sales and sales made on credit while the cash flow statement only includes the cash sales so any sales
現金銷售和信用銷售，而現金流量表只包含現金銷售。所以，任何
1:05:56
made on credit that are going to be paid in the future are not included in this cash flow statement so essentially cash
未來才會收到款項的信用銷售，都不會包含在這張現金流量表中。因此，基本上，現金
1:06:02
enters and leaves a company through three different Avenues and those Avenues are operations investing and
透過三個不同的管道流入和流出公司，這些管道分別是營運、投資和
1:06:09
financing and these three Avenues make up the cash flow statement of a company so we're going to break down each of
融資。而這三個管道構成了一家公司的現金流量表。所以，我們現在要來拆解這
1:06:15
these three Avenues now first of all we have operations so a company generates cash from the products or Services they
三個管道。首先，我們有營運。一家公司從其提供的產品或服務中
1:06:22
offer known as the operations this is the goods and services they provide the positive or negative cash flow of these
產生現金，這被稱為營運。這就是他們提供的商品和服務。這些營運的正向或負向現金流，
1:06:28
operations as a result of the cash coming in and the cash going out related to these operations related to the goods
是來自於與這些營運、與這些商品相關的現金流入和流出。
1:06:35
and services they are selling now operations includes the cash the accounts receivable depreciation
以及他們正在銷售的服務。營業活動包括現金、應收帳款、折舊
1:06:41
inventory and the accounts payable now it's important to remember that not all transactions involve cash items
存貨以及應付帳款。重要的是要記住，並非所有交易都涉及現金項目
1:06:48
oftentimes they involve credit so these are excluded from the cash flow statement the only items listed on the
通常它們涉及信用交易，因此這些項目不包括在現金流量表中。現金流量表上列出的
1:06:54
cash flow statement are items that are involved in a cash transaction not a credit transaction and then we have the
唯一項目是涉及現金交易的項目，而非信用交易。接下來是
1:07:01
investing Avenue so this includes cash flow from investing activities the investing section of the cash flow
投資活動。這包括來自投資活動的現金流量。現金流量表的投資部分
1:07:08
statement indicates any gains or losses as a result of company Investments and these could be Capital assets like
顯示因公司投資而產生的任何收益或損失。這些可能是像
1:07:15
equipment or buildings but this could also include investments in Securities or business Acquisitions so if they're
設備或建築這樣的資本資產，但也可能包括對證券的投資或企業收購。所以，如果他們
1:07:22
doing something with the cash they are holding such as investing it to earn a rate of interest however typically under
對持有的現金進行操作，例如為了賺取利息而進行投資，然而通常在
1:07:27
the investing section these will be losses as a result of capital expenditures associated with these
投資部分下，這些會是與這些
1:07:33
Investments so one of the biggest examples is depreciation of the equipment and the buildings that they
投資相關的資本支出所造成的損失。其中一個最大的例子就是他們
1:07:39
own and then we have the financing Avenue of the cash flow statement so this section includes any changes in
擁有的設備和建築的折舊。接著是現金流量表的融資活動部分，這部分包括
1:07:45
debt loans or dividends when capital is raised for the issuing of corporate bonds for example this is a cash inflow
債務、貸款或股利的任何變動。例如，當為發行公司債而籌集資本時，這是一筆現金流入
1:07:52
and then when capital is spent through the payment of dividends to shareholders for example this would be considered a
然後，當資本因支付股利給股東而支出時，例如，這將被視為
1:07:58
cash outflow and both of these would be indicated under the financing section of the cash flow statement so this is where
一筆現金流出。這兩者都會在現金流量表的融資活動部分中顯示。因此，在這裡
1:08:05
you're going to find out how much is being borrowed and how much is being repaid under the financing section of
你將能找出在現金流量表的融資活動部分下，借了多少以及償還了多少。那麼，讓我們繼續來看看 Google 的現金流量表，首先是
1:08:10
the cash flow statement so let's go ahead and take a look at the cash flow statement for Google and the First
營業現金流量。這就是它在表格上的實際樣子。頂部我們看到的是過去
1:08:16
Avenue being the operating cash flow so this is what it's actually going to look like on top we're looking at the last
五年的數據，以及 Google 營業現金流量淨額的五年趨勢。這份文件包含了很多資訊
1:08:21
five years and then the five year trend of the net operating cash flow for Google and there's a lot that goes into
我沒有深入探討所有內容，我只看兩個數字：營業現金流量淨額的
1:08:28
this document I don't really go that in depth with it I look at two figures here those are the net operating cash flow
增長率，以及營業現金流量淨額對銷售額的比率。所以在現金流量表的營業活動部分下
1:08:34
growth and then the net operating cash flow to sales ratio so under the operations section of the cash flow
成長，以及營運現金流對銷售額的比率，所以在現金流量表的營運活動部分
1:08:41
statement the most important thing to analyze is the net operating cash flow so what you're looking for is steady and
報表 最重要的是分析營運現金流量淨額 所以你要尋找的是穩定且
1:08:48
consistent growth of net operating cash flow this is very important especially when double digit growth is seen year
持續的營運現金流量淨額增長 這非常重要 特別是當看到逐年
1:08:54
after year so as we can look at here with Google for the last five years we're seeing
雙位數增長時 所以正如我們在這裡看到谷歌過去五年的數據 我們看到
1:09:01
consistent double-digit growth of the net operating cash flow so we see 12.128 percent and then 19.92 percent that
營運現金流量淨額持續的雙位數增長 我們看到 12.128% 然後是 19.92% 接著是
1:09:09
you're following 16.3 percent and then in 2016 almost 40 percent growth in net operating cash flow and as you can see
16.3% 然後在 2016 年幾乎有 40% 的營運現金流量淨額增長 如你所見
1:09:18
there The Five-Year trend is trending upwards so this is fantastic this is great numbers that you're going to be
這五年的趨勢是向上的 這非常棒 這是很好的數字 你
1:09:23
looking for as far as the net operating cash flow growth goes again like we said you want to see double digit growth and
在營運現金流量增長方面會尋找的 再次強調 如我們所說 你希望看到雙位數增長 而
1:09:31
we are well into the double digits here especially into 2014 and 2016.
我們在這裡遠超雙位數 特別是在 2014 和 2016 年。
1:09:37
now the other thing I look at is the net operating cash flow to sales rate issue
現在我看的另一件事是營運現金流量對銷售額的比率問題
1:09:40
because this indicates the ability a company has to turn sales into cash and the higher the percentage is the better
因為這顯示了一家公司將銷售轉化為現金的能力 百分比越高越好
1:09:47
because what is the good of sales what is the point of having good sales if those sales aren't being converted into
因為銷售有什麼好 如果這些銷售沒有轉化為
1:09:54
cash you want to see a healthy amount of cash being generated from the sales that they have going on so again what we're
現金 那好的銷售又有什麼意義 你希望看到從他們的銷售中產生健康的現金
1:10:01
looking for with both of these here is consistency you want to see consistency so if the Figures were to change out of
所以再次強調 我們在這兩者中尋找的是持續性 你希望看到持續性 所以如果數字突然
1:10:07
nowhere that would be a red flag if all of a sudden they had a 30 percent operating cash flow to sales ratio and
無故改變 這將是一個警訊 如果突然他們的營運現金流量對銷售比率是 30%
1:10:15
it fell to 10 percent that means that the sales are not being converted into cash and you need to analyze why that
卻跌到 10% 這意味著銷售沒有轉化為現金 你需要分析為什麼會
1:10:21
may be so just to recap what you're looking for here is double digit growth in the net operating cash flow and then
這樣 再次總結 你在這裡尋找的是營運現金流量淨額的雙位數增長 然後
1:10:28
you want to see a double digit percentage when it comes to the cash flow as far as how it's being converted
你希望看到當涉及到現金流量如何轉化為
1:10:33
into sales the net operated cash flow to sales ratio so this is what I pay attention to under the operation in
銷售時有雙位數的百分比 也就是營運現金流量對銷售比率 這就是我在現金流量表的營運
1:10:40
section of the cash flow statement and next we have the financing section of the cash flow statement and I also
部分下所注意的 接下來我們有現金流量表的融資部分 我也
1:10:47
included investing activities under the investing section of the cash flow statement because that's really the only
將投資活動包含在現金流量表的投資部分下 因為那真的是唯一
1:10:52
thing I pay attention to under that section the most important metric to look at under the financing section of
在該部分我最關注的、在現金流量表融資活動部分最重要的指標
1:10:59
the cash flow statement is the free cash flow so what this is is the net operating cash flow after the capital
就是自由現金流。所謂自由現金流，是指扣除資本
1:11:06
expenditures which are outlined in the investing section of the cash flow statement so that's what I look for
支出後的淨營運現金流，而資本支出在現金流量表的投資活動部分有列出，這就是我在
1:11:13
under the investing section of the cash flow statement is those Capital expenditures
現金流量表的投資活動部分尋找的資訊，也就是那些資本支出。
1:11:18
so if you take the net operating cash flow and subtract these Capital expenditures that is going to give you
所以，如果你從淨營運現金流中減去這些資本支出，就會得到
1:11:24
the figure known as the free cash flow which is one of the most important figures to look at under the cash flow
所謂的自由現金流，這是現金流量表中最重要的數字之一。
1:11:30
statement and again as I'm sure you guys have guessed what we're looking for is steady and increasing free cash flow and
再次強調，正如我相信各位已經猜到的，我們要尋找的是穩定且持續增長的自由現金流，而
1:11:37
we are definitely seeing that with Google here as you can see in the last three years their free cash flow has
我們在谷歌（Google）身上確實看到了這一點，如各位所見，在過去三年中，他們的自由現金流
1:11:43
increased significantly uh 41 percent from 2014 to 2015 and then 60 from 2015 to 2016 so they have excellent free cash
顯著增長，從2014年到2015年增長了41%，然後從2015年到2016年增長了60%，所以他們擁有出色的自由現金流，
1:11:52
flow which is something you want to see so just to recap these are the things that we are looking for under the cash
這正是你希望看到的。總結一下，我們在現金流量表中關注以下幾點：第一，有多少現金流入和流出；第二，營運是否帶來持續
1:11:58
flow statement number one how much cash is entering and leaving number two are operations resulting in consistent
增長的正向現金流；第三，資本支出的增長速度是否快於營運現金流；第四，淨營運現金流對銷售額的比率是否
1:12:06
growing positive cash flow number three are capital expenditures growing faster than cash flow from operations number
顯示出兩位數的增長；第五，自由現金流是否以穩定的速度增長；第六，該公司是否為一頭「現金牛」（cash cow）。在此刻分析完
1:12:13
four is the net operating cash flow to sales ratio showing double-digit growth number is free cash flow growing at a
三份財務文件後，我們可以自信地說，谷歌是一頭現金牛，這在長期投資中是
1:12:21
consistent rate and number six is the company a cash cow and we can say with confidence at this point after analyzing
一個非常理想的現象，代表該公司擁有大量現金。所以，這就是宏觀的視角：你利用這三份財務文件來
1:12:28
the three financial documents that Google is a cash cow and that is a great thing to see in a long-term investment
評估公司的財務狀況、債務相對於其擁有的資產，以及本質上現金是如何流入和流出的。這一切綜合起來，讓你對一家公司的
1:12:34
is a company that has a lot of cash so really this is the big picture you're using these three financial documents to
財務健康狀況有一個概念。那麼，現在我們要轉向
1:12:41
determine the financial health of the company the debt versus the assets they own and essentially how cash is entering
季度財報（Quarterly Earnings Report）。這是上市公司必須每季提交的文件，
1:12:48
and leaving and this all shapes up to give you an idea of the Financial Health of a company so now we're moving on to
本質上，他們會在其中報告最新的營運表現，並更新這三方面的資訊。
1:12:55
the quarterly earnings report so this is something that public companies are required to file quarterly and
季度財報，這是上市公司必須每季申報的文件，
1:13:01
essentially they're reporting an update on their earnings performance and updating you on all three of these
他們基本上是在更新其獲利表現，並向你更新所有這三項
1:13:05
financial documents so this report allows investors to determine the ongoing Financial Health of a company
財務文件 這份報告讓投資者能夠判斷一家公司持續的財務健康狀況
1:13:11
and the main figures that people pay attention to are the earnings per share the revenue and then the company
而人們關注的主要數字是每股盈餘 營收 以及公司
1:13:18
guidance if they are providing guidance and we're going to discuss all these shortly going forward here now Wall
的指引（如果他們提供指引的話） 我們稍後將討論所有這些內容 現在華爾街
1:13:25
Street analysts and again remember analysts as we said as Warren Buffett has said they're out there to make
分析師 再次記住 分析師 就像我們說過的 也是華倫·巴菲特所說的 他們的存在是為了讓
1:13:30
fortune tellers look good so as a stock market Master you're not going to be taking stock in what they are saying
算命師看起來不錯 所以作為股市大師 你不會輕信他們所說的
1:13:35
you're not going to be taking their word on truth you're going to be very skeptical of what they are saying but
你不會把他們的話當作真理 你會對他們所說的保持高度懷疑 但
1:13:40
nonetheless Wall Street analysts are going to base buy and sell recommendations off of these quarterly
儘管如此 華爾街分析師仍會根據這些季度
1:13:46
earnings reports and analysts also set expectations for these quarterly earnings and do remember that these are
財報提出買進和賣出的建議 而分析師也會為這些季度盈餘設定預期 請記住 這些只是
1:13:53
just expectations and oftentimes they fall short or they come above those expectations based on company
預期 通常它們會低於或高於這些預期 這取決於公司的
1:13:59
performance now the report provides the public with an overview of sales expenses and net income for the previous
表現 這份報告向公眾提供了上一季的
1:14:06
quarter so often times this report also provides a comparison to the previous quarter as well as a year-over-year
銷售、支出和淨收入概況 因此 這份報告通常還會提供與上一季的比較 以及與去年同期的
1:14:13
comparison so you can get an idea of where the company is trending financially or what is happening if
比較 這樣你就能了解公司在財務上的趨勢 或者如果
1:14:18
things are are trending upward downward or just moving laterally now many reports also include a narrative from
情況正在上升、下降或只是橫向發展時 發生了什麼事 現在許多報告還包括 CEO 或公司
1:14:24
the CEO or some Financial spokesperson for the company about what is seen in the report and do remember that they're
某位財務發言人針對報告中所見情況的說明 請記住 他們會
1:14:32
going to paint the best picture possible so make sure you are going through that and taking what they're saying with a
畫出最美好的藍圖 所以務必仔細閱讀 並對他們所說的內容保持
1:14:38
grain of salt because their job is to you know make things look really good even if they may not be as good as they
保留態度 因為他們的工作就是 讓事情看起來非常美好 即使實際情況可能沒有那麼好
1:14:44
are they're trying to paint the best picture possible now companies also file a 10q which provides a more
他們試圖描繪出最美好的畫面 現在公司也會提交 10Q 表格 這提供了更
1:14:51
comprehensive report however this 10q filing usually comes out a few days or a few weeks following the quarterly
全面的報告 然而 這份 10Q 的申報通常會在季度
1:14:57
earnings report so it's important to look at both of these documents and you're going to be using the same
財報發布後幾天或幾週才出來 所以同時查看這兩份文件很重要 你將使用我們之前討論過的
1:15:03
strategies we discussed before to analyze the quarterly earnings report you're going to look at the balance
相同策略來分析季度財報 你將查看資產負債表
1:15:08
sheet the income statement and then the cash flow statements that are provided in this quarterly update by the company
該公司於此季度更新中提供的損益表以及現金流量表
1:15:15
so the first thing that people really pay attention to is the earnings per share figure and this is the bread and
因此，人們首先真正關注的是每股盈餘（EPS）數字，這是財報的
1:15:21
butter of the earnings report this indicates what the company earned per share in that quarter and the earnings
核心，它顯示了該公司當季每股賺了多少錢，而每股盈餘
1:15:27
per share indicates the profitability of a company now beating or falling under the EPS forecasting can send a stock
則顯示了公司的獲利能力。現在，每股盈餘是否超越或低於預期，可能會讓股價
1:15:34
soaring or tumbling so when you hear about a company beating earnings expectations it means they beat the EPS
飛漲或暴跌。因此，當你聽到一家公司「超越財測」時，意味著他們的每股盈餘
1:15:40
or the earnings per share expectations set by those Wall Street analysts now remember it is in the best interest of
或每股盈餘表現，超越了華爾街分析師所設定的預期。請記住，提供準確的預估
1:15:47
an analyst to provide an accurate estimate because if they're way off frequently people are going to stop
符合分析師的最佳利益，因為如果他們經常嚴重失準，人們將不再
1:15:52
listening to them they're not going to have as much credibility so these analysts are going to do their best to
聽信他們，他們將不再有那麼高的可信度。因此，這些分析師會盡其所能地
1:15:57
provide the best estimates in forecasting possible and then we have Revenue something that is equally
提供最佳的預估和預測。接著是營收（Revenue），這同樣是
1:16:03
important revenue is the income generated from the goods and services being sold and like the earnings per
非常重要的。營收是透過銷售商品和服務所產生的收入，與每股盈餘一樣，
1:16:09
share Wall Street analysts set expectations for the revenue now increasing Revenue should result in an
華爾街分析師會設定營收的預期。營收增加應該會導致
1:16:15
increase in the earnings per share but do remember this is not always the case and now that we've talked about looking
每股盈餘增加，但請記住，情況並非總是如此。既然我們已經談論了如何檢視
1:16:21
at those financial documents you guys will be able to dig deep and understand why revenue is not resulting in earnings
這些財務文件，你們將能夠深入挖掘，並理解為何營收沒有帶來每股盈餘的
1:16:28
per share growth and then we have the guidance and in my opinion this is the most important part of an earnings
增長。接著是財測（Guidance），在我看來，這是財報中
1:16:34
report now this is an indication or an estimate of the future earnings performance and typically this includes
最重要的一部分。這是對未來獲利表現的指標或預估，通常包含
1:16:40
Revenue earnings per share margin and estimates of ongoing capital expenditure features now guidance is not required
營收、每股盈餘、毛利率以及持續性資本支出的預估。財測並非
1:16:48
but reputable companies tend to provide these estimates and Company guidance figures tend to be far more accurate
強制要求，但信譽良好的公司往往會提供這些預估，而且公司的財測數字往往比
1:16:55
than analyst expectations so I pay a lot of attention to the company guidance figures they provide so what you want to
分析師的預期準確得多。因此，我非常關注他們提供的公司財測數字。所以，你想要
1:17:02
look for is a company that is Raising guidance they have better expectations going forward for revenue and earnings
尋找的是「上調財測」的公司，他們對未來的營收、每股盈餘
1:17:09
per share and margin and other things they're providing guidance on you want to definitely pay attention when a
和毛利率，以及他們提供財測的其他事項，都有更好的預期。當一家公司......你絕對要注意當
1:17:15
company that you're investing in is raising their guidance figures so as we said before these Wall Street analysts
你所投資的公司正在上調他們的財測數字，所以如我們之前所說，這些華爾街分析師
1:17:21
are out there to make fortune tellers look good and this is a perfect example here this is the last four reports for
的表現讓算命師都自嘆不如，這就是一個完美的例子，這是 NVIDIA 最近四份報告
1:17:28
NVIDIA in terms of their earnings per share reported versus their consensus earnings per share forecast by these
中每股盈餘 (EPS) 的實際公布值，以及這些分析師對其每股盈餘的共識預測值，
1:17:35
analysts and on the right there we have the percent surprise which is how far above they came to what the analysts
右邊則是「盈餘驚奇」百分比，也就是實際數字超出分析師預期的幅度。所以在最近一季，
1:17:42
were expecting so in the most recent quarter they had a 50 surprise in the previous quarter it was a 25 the
他們有 50% 的驚奇，前一季是 25%，再前一季是 20%，而在上一次公布的季度中，
1:17:50
previous quarter a 20 and in the last reported quarter there 45.61 earnings surprise so as you can see these
盈餘驚奇幅度為 45.61%。因此如你所見，這些
1:17:59
forecasts for earnings per share have not been accurate and Nvidia has been blowing them out of the water and as a
對每股盈餘的預測並不準確，Nvidia 的表現遠超預期，而
1:18:05
result look at the performance of the stock over the last year as you can see it was somewhere above fifty dollars a
結果就是，看看該股過去一年的表現，如你所見，股價原本在 50 美元
1:18:11
share and now they are trading almost at 200 a share in one year so that is a rapid appreciation and the stock price
上方，現在交易價格接近 200 美元，一年內漲幅驚人，股價大漲
1:18:17
largely based on the fact that they are blowing expectations out of the water and consistently beating the consensus
主要是基於他們表現遠超預期，並持續擊敗這些華爾街分析師的共識
1:18:25
estimates of these Wall Street analysts now when you're looking at the quarterly earnings reports of a company you're
估計值。現在，當你查看一家公司的季度財報時，
1:18:31
going to see these figures listed in gaap versus non-gaap earnings so when a company reports earnings they provide
你會看到 GAAP（一般公認會計原則）與非 GAAP 的盈餘數字。當一家公司公布盈餘時，他們會提供
1:18:38
Gap and non-gaap figures and the generally accepted accounting principles or what gaap stands for are are set by
GAAP 和非 GAAP 的數字，而 GAAP 代表的「一般公認會計原則」是由
1:18:46
the financial accounting and Standards Board now this standardized the financial reporting procedure for ease
財務會計準則委員會 (Financial Accounting Standards Board) 所制定，其目的在於
1:18:52
of comparison so companies are going to disclose the Gap earnings but they're also going to disclose their own
標準化財務報告程序以便於比較。因此，公司會披露 GAAP 盈餘，但也會在
1:18:57
accounting figures under the non-gaap label I know this gets a little confusing here but what you guys are
非 GAAP 的標籤下披露他們自己的會計數字。我知道這有點令人困惑，但你們要
1:19:03
going to look for is a large discrepancy so if you see a big difference between the Gap and the non-gaap reportings then
尋找的是巨大的差異，所以如果你看到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 的報告之間存在很大差異，
1:19:10
that is going to be a red flag because there are some methods of Creative Accounting that can kind of fluff the
那將是一個警訊，因為有些「創意會計」的方法可以美化
1:19:16
numbers and if you see a company reporting non-gaap earnings per share that are significantly different or
數字。如果你看到一家公司公布的非 GAAP 每股盈餘與 GAAP 相比有顯著差異，或者
1:19:22
non-gaap Revenue that is significantly higher than the Gap then you're going to want to pay close attention to that and
非 GAAP 營收明顯高於 GAAP 營收，那麼你就需要對此保持高度關注。
1:19:28
do some investigation because it may mean that they are using some Creative Accounting to fluff the numbers so
進行一些調查，因為這可能意味著他們正在使用一些創意會計手法來美化數字，所以
1:19:34
generally speaking you want to see these figures be relatively close in value to each other and all you're really looking
一般來說，你希望看到這些數字在數值上相對接近，而你真正尋找的是
1:19:42
for is discrepancies or D mediation when looking at Gap versus non-gaap earnings so the next financial document that you
GAAP（一般公認會計原則）與非 GAAP 淨利之間的差異或分歧，那麼接下來你們
1:19:51
guys want to look for and it's the one we looked at in the beginning under the investor relations is the annual report
想要尋找的財務文件，也是我們一開始在投資者關係頁面看到的，就是年報
1:19:56
so if you are investing in a company Long Term it is very important to read this annual report and take your time
所以如果你打算長期投資一家公司，閱讀這份年報並花時間好好研究是非常重要的
1:20:03
with it now reports like this are not important for short-term investors and they are useless to Traders you're not
現在像這樣的報告對於短期投資者來說並不重要，對於交易者來說更是毫無用處，你不會
1:20:09
going to hear about a day trader reading through the annual report or the 10q because they only care about the
聽說過日內交易者會通讀年報或 10-Q 表格，因為他們只在乎
1:20:15
technicals they don't care about the fundamentals of a company but you can typically find the annual report on the
技術面，不在乎一家公司的基本面，但你通常可以在
1:20:21
investor relations section of their site and I provided an example here of how I navigated to the investor relations site
他們網站的投資者關係區塊找到年報，我在這裡提供一個例子，說明我是如何導航到 AMD 的
1:20:28
for AMD again you just type in AMD investor relations and you're going to click on the link that directs you to
投資者關係網站的，你只需輸入 AMD investor relations，然後點擊將你導向
1:20:34
the site for that now again I think this would be important for you guys to write down but this is what I'm looking for
該網站的連結，這裡我認為你們有必要記下來，但這就是我在
1:20:41
when I'm looking through the annual report of a company number one our earnings growing year over year you want
閱讀一家公司的年報時尋找的重點：第一，他們的盈餘是否逐年成長，你希望
1:20:47
to see growing earnings number two are sales is also growing year over year it's equally important to see sales
看到盈餘成長；第二，銷售額是否也逐年成長，看到銷售額成長
1:20:53
growing not just those earnings growing and also pay attention if you see sales growth that is not resulting in earnings
與盈餘成長同樣重要，同時也要注意，如果你看到銷售額成長但沒有帶來盈餘
1:20:59
growth that would be a red flag number three does the company have a healthy balance sheet and now that we've talked
成長，這就是一個警訊；第三，公司的資產負債表是否健全，既然我們已經談過
1:21:05
about the balance sheet you should be able to identify what a healthy balance sheet is and what an unhealthy balance
資產負債表，你應該能夠辨別什麼是健全的資產負債表，什麼是不健全的
1:21:11
sheet is when a company is carrying too much debt or too much in liabilities number four is the debt increasing or
資產負債表，例如一家公司背負過多債務或過多負債；第四，債務是增加還是
1:21:19
decreasing and this again is something you will find on the balance sheet number five this has to do with what the
減少，這同樣是你可以在資產負債表上找到的資訊；第五，這與公司
1:21:25
company is writing as far as their Vision or their plan what strategic plan has the management laid out because they
關於其愿景或計畫的描述有關，管理層提出了什麼戰略計畫，因為他們
1:21:32
should include in this a snapshot of what's going on within the industry and what their plan is to move forward and
應該在其中包含對產業現況的概述以及他們前進的計畫，還有
1:21:39
grow in the future number six ties in with this as well what is the company Vision going forward
未來成長第六點也與此相關，公司未來的願景是什麼
1:21:45
and number seven this ties in with what Warren Buffett says about whether or not management is honest with shareholders
第七點這與華倫・巴菲特所說的管理層是否對股東誠實有關
1:21:52
are there any carefully warded apologies involved in the annual report make sure if you see that that you investigate and
年報中是否有任何小心翼翼的道歉 如果你看到這種情況 請務必調查
1:22:01
if they're apologizing for any reason or carefully structuring an apology this is a good indication of whether or not
如果他們因為任何原因道歉 或是精心構思道歉措辭 這是判斷
1:22:07
management is being honest with the shareholders or if they're just trying to sweep things under the rug so also
管理層是否對股東誠實 或是試圖掩蓋問題的良好指標 另外
1:22:13
included in this annual report is a letter from the board of directors and one of the first things you will see
這份年報中還包含董事會的一封信 當你查看這份報告時
1:22:19
when you're looking at this report is this letter in most cases your any reputable company that provides this
首先會看到的東西之一就是這封信 在大多數情況下 任何信譽良好的公司提供的這份
1:22:24
annual report pretty much the first thing you're going to come across is a letter from the
年報 你幾乎首先會遇到的就是
1:22:29
board of directors now do remember that like the narrative along with the quarterly earnings report from the CEO
董事會的來信 請記住 這與執行長或公司發言人
1:22:36
or the company spokesperson these people are the master of the spin when it comes to the story they're going to try to put
在季度財報中的敘述一樣 這些人是操縱輿論的大師 在講故事時 他們會試圖
1:22:43
a creative spin on anything they can and try to make bad news sound like good news so understand that the letter from
對任何能利用的事情進行創意加工 嘗試讓壞消息聽起來像好消息 所以要明白 董事會的
1:22:50
the board of directors and also the narrative from the CEO in that quarterly earnings report could have a biased
來信 以及季度財報中執行長的敘述 都可能帶有偏見
1:22:56
perspective and I always say treat the letter from the board of directors the same way you would treat a letter from a
的觀點 我總是說 對待董事會的來信 就像對待政客的信件一樣 用
1:23:01
politician go through it with a fine-tooth comb and take things with a grain of salt so when I read this letter
嚴密的態度審視 並抱持保留態度 所以當我讀這封
1:23:07
to the shareholders these are the six questions I ask myself and I hope to answer these questions by analyzing this
給股東的信時 我會問自己這六個問題 我希望透過分析這封信
1:23:13
letter number one is the industry undergoing any changes or disruptions and hopefully if management is being
來回答這些問題 第一 產業是否正在經歷任何變化或顛覆 如果管理層對股東
1:23:20
honest with shareholders they're going to point these out in that letter number two what actions are plan to overcome
誠實 他們應該會在信中指出這些問題 第二 計劃採取什麼行動來克服
1:23:27
these challenges so if there are challenges that they are identifying what is their plan to overcome these
這些挑戰 所以 如果他們指出了挑戰 他們有什麼計劃來克服
1:23:32
challenges so you want to make sure they're not just identifying them but they're also talking about what they're
這些挑戰 所以你要確保他們不僅僅是指出問題 還討論了他們
1:23:37
actually going to do to overcome these challenges number three what details are being highlighted and number four what
實際上打算做什麼來克服這些挑戰 第三 正在強調哪些細節 第四 什麼
1:23:45
details are being brushed over because oftentimes think about a good magician they're
細節常被輕描淡寫，因為想想那些優秀的魔術師，他們總會
1:23:50
going to be drawing your attention elsewhere when the important thing going on is happening behind the scenes they
將你的注意力引導到別處，而當重要事情發生時，其實是在幕後進行，他們
1:23:57
don't want you paying attention to that so understand that what they're drawing your attention to may be a way to draw
不希望你注意到那點，所以要明白，他們引導你注意的地方，可能是一種
1:24:04
your attention away from something else so you want to pay attention mostly to what they're actually brushing over what
將你注意力從其他事物引開的方式，因此你應該主要關注他們實際上輕描淡寫的部分，那些
1:24:10
may not be maybe what's not being explained in as great of detail might be something you actually want to pay the
可能未被詳細解釋的內容，或許才是你最應該關注的，因為正如我們所說，他們可能對壞消息進行了
1:24:16
most attention to because like we said they may be putting a creative spin on bad news number five are there any
創意包裝。第五點，管理層是否有任何
1:24:22
changes in management because if there are you're going to want to go back to square one and study the new management
變動？如果有，你將需要回到原點，研究新上任的
1:24:28
Executives entering the picture and then number six have there been any new acquisitions or major company
管理層主管，接著第六點，是否有任何新的收購或重大的公司
1:24:34
breakthroughs you're going to want to pay particular attention to those now most annual reports will also
突破？你將需要特別關注這些。現在，大多數年報也會
1:24:40
include a section that outlines the goods and services they provide and there's no set format for an annual
包含一個章節，概述他們提供的商品和服務，而年報並沒有固定的
1:24:46
report so I can't say what this is going to be called but as you're reading through it eventually you're going to
格式，所以我無法確切說這部分會叫什麼名稱，但當你閱讀時，最終你會
1:24:51
come across a section where they're discussing the goods and the services they provide so part of the annual
遇到一個章節，他們在討論所提供的商品和服務，所以年報的
1:24:57
report is outlining the goods and services the company offers and it this comes down to understanding the business
一部分是概述公司提供的商品和服務，這歸根結底在於理解你
1:25:04
you're investing in it is very important to understand what a company is generating revenue from and it is
所投資的企業。了解一家公司的營收來源非常重要，而
1:25:10
equally important to understand where the revenue is being generated so in order to really do this in order to
了解營收產生的地點同樣重要，因此，為了真正做到這一點，為了
1:25:16
understand these things you need to understand the business this is why it is so crucial to invest in companies and
理解這些事情，你需要了解這門生意，這就是為什麼投資於你完全
1:25:23
invest in a business you fully understand because if you don't understand the business it's going to be
理解的公司和生意是如此關鍵，因為如果你不了解這門生意，你將很難
1:25:28
hard for you to determine what a company is generating revenue from where the revenue is being generated as far as the
判斷一家公司的營收來源，以及營收產生的地點，就地理位置而言，以及這是否是
1:25:34
location and whether or not this is a a healthy area they're generating revenue from and whether or not these are
一個健康的營收來源領域，以及這些數字是否是你想看到的，所以你還應該考慮他們服務哪些市場，任何種類的
1:25:41
numbers that you want to be seeing so you want to also consider What markets they are serving any kind of
你希望看到的數字。因此，你還應該考慮他們服務哪些市場，任何
1:25:46
geopolitical concerns involved with those markets so maybe they're serving third world countries and there's a lot
這些市場涉及的地緣政治風險，例如它們可能服務第三世界國家，而這些地區政治動盪較多，這可能是一個警訊。
1:25:52
of political unrest in those areas that might be a red flag and based on the goods and services they're providing
此外，根據它們提供的商品與服務，也要識別出服務相同客戶群的競爭對手。
1:25:59
also identify the competitors serving the same customer base so I'm hoping at this point you guys really understand
我希望到了這個階段，你們真的能理解充分了解所投資公司與業務的重要性。
1:26:06
the importance of fully understanding the companies and the businesses that you invest in because otherwise it's
因為如果不這樣做，要搞懂它們從哪裡產生營收、如何產生營收。
1:26:13
going to be damn near impossible to go through this and try to understand things like where they're generating
以及這些營收流在未來是否健康，幾乎是不可能的。
1:26:18
revenue from how they're generating revenue and whether or not these are healthy revenue streams going forward
好的，我知道這章節講了很多內容，希望你們沒有被淹沒。
1:26:23
okay so I know we've covered a lot in this section and I'm hoping you're not overwhelmed if you are like I said just
如果有的話，就像我說的，多看幾次，或者一次只看一個部分，務必真正理解。
1:26:31
go through this a couple of times or even just go through one section at a time and really get a good understanding
但我只想給你們一個精華總結。如果你要分析一家公司的基本面，以下是我會按順序做的事：
1:26:36
of it but I just want to give you desert recap so if you were going to analyze the fundamentals of a company these are
第一，我會造訪投資人關係網站，了解管理層，因為正如我們所說，船的好壞取決於船長。
1:26:42
the things I would do in this order number one the first thing I would do I would visit the investor relations site
第二，閱讀願景或展望報告。通常除了年報之外，你會看到公司提供的關於公司願景、目標與宗旨的文件。
1:26:47
and I would learn about the management because as we said a ship is only as good as the captain number two read
第三，研究資產負債表。第四，分析損益表。第五，檢視現金流量表。
1:26:53
through the vision or the Outlook report oftentimes aside from that annual report you'll see companies providing
完成這些後，你可能已經檢視了過去五年甚至十年的數據。
1:27:00
documentation on the vision of the company and the goals and objectives number three you're going to study the
現在，你要每季更新自己，閱讀季報，了解它們是否仍朝著相同方向發展並維持良好的財務健康。
1:27:06
balance sheet for you're going to analyze the income statement and five you're going to review the cash flow
之後，在財報發布後，當 10-Q 表格（季報）發布時，你會去細讀 10-Q 以發掘更多細節。
1:27:12
statement once you've done this you've looked at maybe the last five if not 10 years of data now you're going to update
然後每年當它們發布年報時，你會真正埋頭苦讀年報，查看致股東的信。
1:27:19
yourself every quarter and read the quarterly earnings report to get an idea of whether or not they are still
查看商品與服務，並分析這份文件，檢視我們提到的那些事項。
1:27:25
trending in the same direction and maintaining good Financial Health then after that once the 10q is released
趨勢是否同向，並維持良好的財務狀況。之後，當10-Q季報
1:27:32
after the earnings report you're going to go through the 10q and uncover more details and then every year when they
在財報發布後，你將仔細閱讀10-Q季報並挖掘更多細節，然後每年當他們
1:27:39
release the annual report you're going to really bury your nose in the annual report look at the letter to the
發布年報時，你將深入鑽研年報，閱讀給
1:27:44
shareholders look at the goods and services and uh Analyze This document and look at the things we've mentioned
股東的信，檢視商品與服務，並分析這份文件，查看我們提到的內容
1:27:50
already but this is the big picture here of fundamental stock analysis and my procedure of doing this anyway so the
已經，但這就是基本面股票分析的全貌，以及我進行此分析的程序，所以
1:27:57
last thing we're going to talk about in this section are factors that give a company value outside of the numbers and
我們在本節要談的最後一件事，是賦予公司價值的非數字因素，而
1:28:04
the first thing we're going to talk about is brand so one of the most important fundamental strengths of a
我們首先要談的是品牌。所以，我自己尋找的公司最重要的基本優勢之一就是
1:28:09
company that I look for myself is a strong brand now a brand in my opinion and many people agree is one of the most
強大的品牌。現在，在我看來（許多人也同意），品牌是任何公司
1:28:16
important parts of any company and companies Trends and Brands as you guys know they come and go you know some
最重要的部分之一。正如各位所知，公司的趨勢和品牌來來去去，有些
1:28:23
companies are hot for a little while some Trends are hot and then they just disappear and you want to make sure
公司會紅極一時，有些趨勢很熱門，然後就消失了。你希望確保
1:28:29
you're investing in a durable company with a very strong brand and a company that's not going to be phased out a
你投資的是一家持久的公司，擁有非常強大的品牌，而且不會被淘汰的
1:28:36
company that is not a trend so a strong brand conveys quality it conveys Integrity credibility and an experience
公司，不是那種曇花一現的公司。所以，強大的品牌傳達了品質、
1:28:44
the customer has come to expect so that's what you want to look for in a strong brand you want to look for a
誠信、可信度，以及顧客習慣的體驗。這就是你在強大品牌中要尋找的特質。你要尋找一個
1:28:49
quality brand a trusted brand that people really feel good about so I want to give you guys an example of what a
品質優良、值得信賴，讓人感覺良好的品牌。所以我想給各位一個例子，說明一個品牌
1:28:56
brand can truly be worth and this is a perfect example of the Goodwill we were talking about of when a company acquires
真正的價值是多少，這也是我們談論過的商譽（Goodwill）的完美例子。當一家公司收購
1:29:03
another company the dollar amount paid above the book value represents the Goodwill or the value of those
另一家公司時，支付超過帳面價值的金額就代表商譽，或是那些
1:29:08
intangible assets so in 2010 Kraft acquired the Cadbury confectionary company for 19.5 billion dollars now the
無形資產的價值。所以在 2010 年，Kraft（卡夫）以 195 億美元收購了 Cadbury（吉百利）食品公司。當時的
1:29:18
value was not necessarily in the factories of the recipes I'm sure if Kraft wanted to they could open up their
價值並不一定在工廠或配方上。我敢說如果 Kraft 想要，他們可以開設自己的
1:29:24
own factories to make chocolates and candies and they could come up with their own recipes that would be pretty
工廠來生產巧克力和糖果，也可以研發出自己的配方，而且可能
1:29:27
good but the value was the strong and recognizable brand the value was in the Cadbury brand because when people buy
相當不錯。但價值在於那強大且廣為人知的品牌，價值在於 Cadbury 的品牌。因為當人們購買
1:29:35
Cadbury chocolates they've come to expand affect a certain level of quality they've come to expect a certain
Cadbury 巧克力時，他們已經習慣了某種程度的品質，他們期待某種
1:29:41
experience and that is why craft was interested in acquiring Cadbury was for the name it was for the brand that was
體驗。這就是為什麼 Kraft 有興趣收購 Cadbury——是為了那個名字，是為了那個品牌，
1:29:48
not necessarily for the actual tangible assets the value was in those intangible assets and this is why it is so
不一定是為了那些實體的有形資產。價值在於那些無形資產。這就是為什麼
1:29:56
important to invest in a company with a strong and reputable brand because there's a lot of value being carried in
投資於擁有強大且信譽卓著的品牌的公司如此重要，因為其中蘊含了巨大的價值。
1:30:02
that brand so I want to do a comparison here for you guys because I think it's interesting when you look at these two
這個品牌，所以我希望在這裡為大家做一個比較，因為我覺得當你看到這兩家公司時，這很有趣
1:30:08
companies here I want to ask you guys and actually enter a comment below I know you guys can comment on these
我想問大家，並請在下方留言，我知道大家可以在這些模組中留言
1:30:13
modules so leave me a comment below which brand gives you the expectations of quality integrity and credibility is
所以請在下方留言告訴我，哪個品牌讓你有品質、正直和信譽的期望
1:30:22
it LL Bean or is it the Champion clothing because I know when I think about quality when I think about
是 LL Bean 還是 Champion 運動服飾？因為我知道當我想到品質
1:30:27
durability and just a good experience I'm leaning towards LL Bean when I'm thinking about discount gym clothing I
當我想到耐用性和良好的體驗時，我傾向於 LL Bean。當我想到折扣健身服飾時
1:30:36
think about Champion that's just what what I think of when I think of these Brands and I want you guys either answer
我會想到 Champion，這就是我對這些品牌的想法，我希望大家在下方的留言中回答我
1:30:42
me in the comments below or answer me in the Facebook group what are some of your favorite Brands what are some of your
或在 Facebook 社團中回答我，你們最喜歡的一些品牌是什麼？你們最喜歡的一些公司是什麼？
1:30:48
favorite companies I'm not even talking about on an investing standpoint as a consumer what are your favorite Brands
我甚至不是從投資的角度在說，而是從消費者的角度，你們最喜歡的品牌是什麼？
1:30:55
what's your favorite restaurants what's your favorite food companies your favorite clothing companies because a
你們最喜歡的餐廳是什麼？你們最喜歡的食品公司、最喜歡的服裝公司是什麼？因為
1:31:00
lot of people have the same favorites because of the strength of the brand and the experience you have come to expect
很多人有相同的最愛，這是因為品牌的實力以及你們所期待的體驗
1:31:06
and this is a very important factor to consider when analyzing the fundamental strength of a company is the strength of
這是在分析一家公司的基本實力時，一個非常重要的考量因素，那就是品牌的實力
1:31:13
that brand so what is so interesting about a brand is that the value and reputation of a brand is something that
所以，一個品牌之所以如此有趣，是因為品牌的價值和聲譽是需要
1:31:19
is built over decades and that reputation can be destroyed in hours so I have two very good examples of this
花費數十年來建立的，而這個聲譽可能在數小時內就被摧毀。所以我有兩個很好的例子
1:31:26
first of all as I'm sure you guys remember United Airlines they yanked that passenger off in a violent manner
首先，我相信大家都記得聯合航空，他們以暴力方式將一名乘客拖下飛機
1:31:32
it's spread like wildfire in the news and now this really tarnished United Airlines brand these may not even be
這件事像野火一樣在新聞中傳開，現在這真的玷污了聯合航空的品牌。這些甚至可能不是
1:31:39
things people think about it may be something they think about subconsciously when you're going to pick
人們會去想的事情，可能是在潛意識中思考的事情，當你準備要選擇
1:31:45
a flight when you're ready to fly are you going to choose Southwest are you going to choose United Airlines you
航班、當你準備要飛行時，你會選擇西南航空嗎？你會選擇聯合航空嗎？
1:31:50
might lean away from United Airlines without even realizing it just because you're subconsciously thinking about
你可能會在沒有意識到的情況下傾向不選擇聯合航空，只因為你在潛意識中想到了
1:31:56
that negative event that happened with United Airlines this is what happens people really need to realize how much
那件發生在聯合航空身上的負面事件。這就是所發生的事，人們真的需要意識到
1:32:03
the reputation matters when it comes to a brand because these are decisions people are making oftentimes on a
當談到一個品牌時，聲譽有多重要，因為這些都是人們常常在做決定時所考量的
1:32:08
subconscious level and another example of this is with Chipotle so over two years ago they had the E coli scare
潛意識層面，另一個例子是 Chipotle，大約兩年多前，他們爆發了大腸桿菌恐慌事件
1:32:15
where 53 customers ended up sick and here's an article that was released on September 13th of 2017 over two years
導致 53 名顧客生病，這是一篇在 2017 年 9 月 13 日發布的文章，超過兩年後
1:32:22
later people are still avoiding Chipotle and again do you think this is because people are still worried about getting E
人們仍然在避開 Chipotle，那麼你認為這是因為人們仍然擔心感染大腸桿菌嗎？
1:32:30
coli probably not it's just a subconscious decision they're making when they're trying to decide where to
大概不是，這只是他們在決定去哪裡吃飯時，下意識做出的決定
1:32:36
eat they just have a negative taste in their mouth or a negative association with Chipotle because this tarnished
他們只是對 Chipotle 有一種負面的印象或負面的聯想，因為這件事玷污了
1:32:43
their brand this is the importance of a brand and this just goes to show you guys how easily a brand reputation can
他們的品牌，這就是品牌的重要性，這也向你們展示了一個品牌的聲譽是多麼容易
1:32:50
be destroyed even from one simple event so one of my Cardinal rules of investing is to invest in a company with a strong
就因為一個簡單的事件而被摧毀，所以我其中一條投資的黃金法則是：投資於擁有強大
1:32:57
and reputable brand and before you invest in a company even after analyzing the financial documents consider the
且信譽良好品牌的公司，而在你投資一家公司之前，即使在分析財務文件之後，也要考慮
1:33:03
brand reputation so even if everything looks perfect even if the numbers are great all the financial documents are
品牌聲譽，所以即使一切看起來都很完美，即使數字很漂亮，所有的財務文件都
1:33:09
good they have a ton of cash they're a cash cow they have low debt you're seeing increasing Revenue the management
很好，他們擁有大量現金，他們是現金牛，負債很低，你看到營收成長，管理層
1:33:16
is great think about the brand consider the brand because the reputation of a brand can make or break a company and as
也很棒，也要思考品牌，考量品牌，因為品牌的聲譽可以成就或毀掉一家公司，而且作為
1:33:24
a rule of thumb I always Benchmark a brand to Coca-Cola so ask yourself this question how strong is their brand in
一個經驗法則，我總是拿一個品牌來跟可口可樂做比較，所以問自己這個問題：他們的品牌有多強大？
1:33:31
relation to arguably one of the strongest and most recognizable Brands out there so if you had a scale from one
相對於市面上公認最強大、最知名的品牌之一，所以如果你有一個從 1 到 10 的 scale，10 代表最強大的品牌，10 是可口可樂，那麼你的品牌在聲譽上
1:33:37
to ten ten being the strongest brand out there 10 is Coca-Cola where does your brand fall as far as the reputation as
以及在知名度上，落在什麼位置？這是我最後會思考的事情之一，就是品牌的強度以及這是否
1:33:44
far as how recognizable it is and that's one of the last things I think about is the strength of the brand and whether or
是一個人們想到時會感到開心的品牌，還是一個他們會聯想到近期負面事件的品牌？
1:33:51
not this is a brand people are happy when they think about or a brand that they associate with a negative recent
是一個人們想到時會感到開心的品牌，還是一個他們會聯想到近期負面事件的品牌？
1:33:57
event and this is something that a lot of people don't think about but it's so important because these are subconscious
這是很多人不會去想的事情，但卻非常重要，因為這些都是潛意識的
1:34:05
decisions people are making like Chipotle for example people are not going to Chipotle because 53 people got
決定，人們正在做的決定，就像 Chipotle 的例子，人們不會去 Chipotle 是因為兩年前有 53 個人
1:34:11
sick two years ago nobody thinks about E coli anymore but you just have a negative association in your mind do due
生病，現在已經沒有人再想到大腸桿菌了，但你腦中就是有一種負面的聯想，因為
1:34:18
to an event that tarnished the reputation of that brand so the final factor I consider in
那件玷污了該品牌聲譽的事件，所以我考慮的最後一個因素是
1:34:23
fundamental stock analysis is the barriers to entry involved with the particular business so these are the
基本面分析中，進入壁壘是指特定行業所涉及的障礙
1:34:29
high startup costs or other obstacles that prevent new competitors from entering an industry so you want to
也就是高昂的創業成本或其他障礙，用以阻止新競爭者進入該產業，因此你應該
1:34:35
always look for high barriers to entry otherwise there is always a risk that your company will be phased out by a
始終尋找高進入壁壘，否則你的公司隨時有被競爭者
1:34:41
competitor now these are six common barriers to entry and you guys may have more that you add to your list but these
淘汰的風險。以下是六種常見的進入壁壘，你或許能想到更多並加入你的清單，但這些
1:34:47
are six common ones out there that you want to consider when you're analyzing a company fundamentals so sit down and get
是分析公司基本面時，你應該考慮的六種常見壁壘。請坐下來思考
1:34:54
an idea in your head of if somebody were to start a brand new version of your company would these barriers make it
一個問題：如果有人要創立一家與你公司完全相同的新企業，這些壁壘是否會讓
1:35:01
difficult for them to Edge in and steal their steal away their customer base number one government regulations are
他們難以切入並奪走其客戶群？第一，政府法規：他們提供的商品或服務是否涉及
1:35:07
there government regulations involved with the goods or services they are providing number two what are the
政府法規？第二，創業成本：創立這門生意的成本有多高？第三，技術與研發：他們的業務是否涉及
1:35:12
startup costs how expensive would it be to start this business number three the technology and the research and
大量的研發與技術？第四，專利：他們是否擁有
1:35:18
development is there a lot of r d and Technology involved in what they're doing number four the patents do they
執行業務所需的法律保護？或者其他人可以直接複製他們的商業模式，而他們卻
1:35:25
have legal protection to do what it is that they are doing or could somebody just go in and replicate their business
無法採取法律行動？第五，供應商與分銷渠道：以我對
1:35:30
and they would have no legal leg to stand on number five the supplier in distribution channels so what I think of
亞馬遜的看法為例，想想其龐大的物流網絡規模，以及要與
1:35:37
that I think about Amazon think about the size of their fulfillment Network and how difficult it would be to compete
亞馬遜競爭有多困難？第六，再次強調，這與品牌及客戶忠誠度有關：客戶對該
1:35:43
with Amazon and number six again this ties with the brand the customer loyalty how loyal are the customers to that
品牌的忠誠度有多高？因為這六種進入壁壘確實能保護一家企業，並讓其他人難以
1:35:49
brand because these six barriers to entry can really protect a business and make it difficult for others to enter
進入該領域
1:35:57
that segment and disrupt that business
並顛覆該業務。
![Corporate Earnings 101: How To Read Company Financials [FREE COURSE]](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/dqhsR-zC4LQ/maxresdefault.jpg)