Buy1's Cry1's is the preferred strategy of the British fund manager Terry Smith who has returned more than 500% in the stock market since the inception of his fund Smith back in 2010.
Imagine that you are buying a car in two parallel universes.
想像一下，你在兩個平行宇宙中購買一輛汽車。
00:16
In one universe, you are purchasing an excellent quality car.
在一個宇宙中，你購買了一輛優良品質的汽車。
00:20
In the other, you are buying one which looks like it's ready for the dumpster.
在另一個宇宙中，你買了一輛看起來準備進垃圾桶的汽車。
00:23
The nice one costs as much as three times the inferior one, giving you a reason for some mild sobbing at its initial purchase.
好的那輛價格是劣質那輛的三倍，讓你在初次購買時有些許哭泣的理由。
00:32
But in the next 10 years, the high quality car takes you along the country roads and the city streets as if it was its sole mission in its life.
但在接下來的10年裡，高品質的汽車會帶你穿梭於鄉間小路和城市街道，彷彿這是它生命中的唯一使命。
00:41
In the other universe, the cheap car gets even more rusty after only a couple of years, with brakes failing from time to time and the gearbox making some undefinable clunky noise.
Over time, you'll end up crying much more in the universe where you picked the cheap option.
隨著時間的推移，你最終會在選擇便宜選項的宇宙中哭得更多。
00:58
This was true for many things that we consume and buy, and not surprisingly, it can also hold true for stock market investments.
這對我們消費和購買的許多東西都是成立的，毫不奇怪，這也適用於股市投資。
01:06
Terry Smith, a British fund manager, has, since the inception of his fund Smith tea class, kept on buying only the equivalent of quality cars in the stock market.
英國基金經理特里·史密斯自從創立史密斯基金以來，一直只在股市中購買優質股的等價物。
01:16
This video will explore his methods for buying quality without overpaying.
這個影片將探討他購買優質股而不過度支付的方法。
01:19
Fund Smith has been a six-bagger in a little over a decade, so his investment strategies has served his investors well.
史密斯基金在十多年裡已經獲得了六倍的回報，因此他的投資策略為投資者帶來了良好的回報。
01:27
This is a top five takeaway summary of investing for growth, how to make money by only buying the best companies in the world, by Terry Smith.
這是投資增長的五大要點總結，如何通過只購買世界上最好的公司來賺錢，由特里·史密斯提供。
01:37
And this is the Swedish investor, bringing you the best tips and tools for reaching financial freedom through stock market investing.
這是瑞典投資者，為您帶來通過股市投資實現財務自由的最佳技巧和工具。
01:45
Takeaway number one, great car, great choice.
要點一，好車，好選擇。
01:49
Half a century ago, a professional gambler called Alex Bird liked betting on horse races.
半個世紀前，一位名叫亞歷克斯·伯德的職業賭徒喜歡在賽馬比賽中下注。
01:55
In bird's day, photo finishes were not digital, and when it came to the very close races, it took a while to produce the film to know the outcome.
在伯德的時代，照片沖刺並非數位化，在非常接近的比賽中，需要一段時間才能生成膠片以了解結果。
02:05
The bookmakers continued setting odds during this time, even though the race was actually finished.
博彩公司在這段時間內繼續設定賠率，即使比賽實際上已經結束。
02:10
Bird developed a strategy that he used to his advantage.
伯德開發了一種他用來獲利的策略。
02:13
He learned that the horse furthest away from the crowd usually seemed like it moved the fastest, and thus was believed to be the winner by many in the crowd.
他發現，離人群最遠的馬通常看起來跑得最快，因此被人群中的許多人認為是贏家。
02:23
Bird realized that if he closed one eye, this illusion dismantled itself.
Bird 發現，如果他閉上一隻眼睛，這種錯覺就會消失。
02:29
Then he would place his bet, while knowing the actual outcome.
然後他會下注，同時知道實際的結果。
02:34
In this way, Bird made himself a fortune, with many hundred correct bets in a row.
通過這種方式，Bird 為自己積累了一筆財富，連續多次下注都能猜中。
02:41
We also want to make a fortune.
我們也想發財。
02:44
So should we screw this old stock market thing we got going on here and rebrand this channel to the Swedish horse gambler?
所以我們是否應該放棄這個舊的股票市場，然後將這個頻道重新命名為「瑞典賽馬賭徒」？
02:52
Now, hold your horses.
現在，先別急。
02:55
But there is a lesson for us here, and it's not analyzed companies with only one eye open.
但這裡有一個教訓給我們，並不是只用一隻眼睛分析公司。
03:00
Mr. Smith advocates an approach for investing much like Bird's betting on horses.
Smith 先生提倡一種投資方法，類似於 Bird 下注賽馬的方式。
03:06
Wait until you know who won, and wait for the bookmakers, the market in our case, to set the odds.
等到你知道誰贏了，然後等待博彩公司，也就是我們的市場，來設定賠率。
03:13
Then just take your pick among the winners.
然後只需要從贏家中選擇即可。
03:16
In the case of the stock market, you'll obviously have to be a bit more careful about the price, or the odds, than Bird had to be with the horses.
在股票市場的情況下，你顯然需要比 Bird 在賽馬時更謹慎地考慮價格或賠率。
03:25
Who are the winners, and how do we recognize them?
誰是贏家，我們如何識別他們？
03:27
We can't compare businesses within the IT space with that of consumer goods, as both sectors have their winners.
我們不能將 IT 領域的企業與消費品企業進行比較，因為這兩個行業都有各自的贏家。
03:35
For example, Apple and Monster Beverages would both be considered winners.
例如，蘋果和怪獸能量飲料都被認為是贏家。
03:41
Warren Buffett has a little test for this, which he calls the silver bullet.
沃倫·巴菲特有一個小測試，他稱之為「銀彈」。
03:45
As competitors within an industry, who they'd like to shoot down with the silver bullet among their peers, the company that other companies are afraid of is typically a true winner in its industry.
作為行業內的競爭者，他們希望用銀彈射殺的對手，也就是其他公司害怕的公司，通常是該行業的真正贏家。
03:58
But if you're like me, and you don't have access to such opinions too easily, then you can look for the following.
但如果你和我一樣，無法輕易獲得這樣的意見，那麼你可以尋找以下特徵。
04:06
High profit margins, gross and operating primarily, high return on assets, and increasing market shares.
高利潤率，主要是毛利和營業利潤，高資產回報率，以及不斷增加的市場份額。
04:14
Make sure to compare apples with apples.
確保比較同類型的公司。
04:17
You do need to pay somewhat of a premium for these companies, but that is the cost of deep moats.
你確實需要為這些公司支付一定的溢價，但這是深護城河的成本。
04:23
There are instances when even such companies can be found at a discount, and we'll get to that in takeaway number three.
即使是這樣的公司，有時也能以折扣價找到，我們會在第三個重點中討論這一點。
04:29
But first, takeaway number two, don't pay extra for unnecessary gadgets.
但首先，第二個重點是，不要為不必要的小玩意兒額外付費。
04:36
You know the small TV screens for rear seats in cars?
你知道汽車後座的小電視螢幕嗎？
04:40
I sought them into gadgets that no one needs, yet some individuals keep on insisting on their high importance.
我認為這些是沒人需要的小玩意兒，但有些人卻堅持認為它們非常重要。
04:46
Dividend investors cover your rears, because the analogy is that those TV screens are much like dividends, sometimes nice, but not a factor to put too much weight in.
A pretty common critique against fast-growing companies is that they often pay little or no dividends.
對高成長公司的一個常見批評是，它們通常支付很少或不支付股息。
05:03
A person fresh out of college might even state that, a company that pays no dividends is not worth anything, and point to some theoretical formula.
一個剛從大學畢業的人甚至可能會說，不支付股息的公司一文不值，並引用一些理論公式。
05:11
Well, theoretically, this wise-ass is correct, given that there isn't and never will be any form of dividends.
好的，從理論上講，這個自以為是的人是正確的，假設沒有且永遠不會有任何形式的股息。
05:20
The flaw in their assumption is that, because the company doesn't pay out any cash today, they assume it never will.
他們假設中的缺陷在於，因為公司今天不支付任何現金，他們就認為公司永遠不會支付。
05:27
Okay, class, time for a quick pop quiz, and Charles, no sneak-beaking on Anna.
好的，同學們，是時候進行一個快速的小測驗了，查爾斯，不要偷看安娜的答案。
05:33
It's 1980, and Berkshire Hathaway has had an impressive run so far under the control of our favorite guy, Mr. Warren Buffett.
現在是1980年，伯克希爾·哈撒韋在我們最喜歡的沃倫·巴菲特的領導下已經有了令人印象深刻的表現。
05:41
A few wise-asses are saying that Buffett must start paying dividends.
有些自以為是的人說，巴菲特必須開始支付股息。
05:45
It's the unconditional right of shareholders to take part in their investments' profits.
股東有無條件的權利參與他們投資的利潤。
05:50
With the advantage of hindsight, I now ask you this.
現在，我以事後諸葛亮的優勢問你們這個問題。
05:54
Would Berkshire have created the same value for its shareholders if it, for the last 42 years, paid a yearly dividend of, say, 50% of the profits?
如果伯克希爾在過去42年裡每年支付相當於利潤50%的股息，它是否能為股東創造同樣的價值？
06:03
The answer is… Not even close.
答案是… 完全不可能。
06:08
There is no chance in hell that the long-term shareholders could have received the same value from Berkshire, would it have paid a dividend?
伯克希爾的長期股東不可能從公司獲得同樣的價值，如果它支付了股息。
06:15
There are two reasons for this.
這有兩個原因。
06:17
Firstly, Berkshire Hathaway has generated more than $1 of value for every $1 kept in the business.
首先，伯克希爾·哈撒韋每保留1美元在業務中，就創造了超過1美元的價值。
06:25
Secondly, there are taxes on dividends, so investors lose an important chunk of their money each time anything is distributed.
其次，股息需要繳稅，因此每次分配時，投資者都會損失一大筆錢。
06:32
This leads to a significantly lower long-term compounding effect, much like the hindering effect of high costs of many of the actively managed funds.
這導致長期複利效應顯著降低，就像許多主動管理基金的高成本所帶來的阻礙效應一樣。
06:41
Buffett has always been keen to keep these kinds of friction costs at a minimum.
巴菲特一直致力於將這類摩擦成本降至最低。
06:45
In practice, wealth building in the market is created by both stock appreciation and dividends.
在實務中，市場上的財富積累是通過股票升值和股息兩者共同創造的。
06:53
The point is that, quite frequently, it is more beneficial for the shareholders' total return if a company reinvestes earnings and skips the dividend altogether, given that the money is helpful in the business.
Exceptional management of superior companies should know when that is the case, and you should not discard an investment simply because there are no dividends.
優秀公司的卓越管理層應該知道何時適合這樣做，而你也不應該僅僅因為沒有股息就放棄一項投資。
07:14
On the contrary, a lack of dividend might be a great signal in some cases.
相反，在某些情況下，缺乏股息可能是一個很好的信號。
07:19
Therefore, buying only companies that currently pay a dividend is a lot like insisting on buying only a car with a semi-useless gadget.
因此，只購買目前支付股息的公司，就好像堅持只購買配有半無用小工具的汽車一樣。
07:28
Takeaway number three, wait for the discount.
第三個要點，等待折扣。
07:32
Most of us would agree that Tesla has an excellent opportunity for continued growth.
我們大多數人都會同意，特斯拉有持續增長的良好機會。
07:38
You'd probably also agree that Microsoft has a durable moat with lots of shocks and crocodiles.
你可能也會同意，微軟擁有持久的護城河，充滿了障礙和鱷魚。
07:43
Perhaps also that Apple enjoys the fruits of solid pricing power by being in the high-end spectrum of the electronics industry, much like LVMH in the luxurious part of the fashion industry.
But suppose that you are only looking at the quality of a business without considering its price tag. In that case, you are a victim of first-level thinking.
但是，假設你只看一家公司的品質而不考慮其價格標籤，那麼你就是一級思維的受害者。
08:04
Another famous investor, Howard Marks, says there is no such thing as a good or bad idea regardless of price.
另一位著名投資者霍華德·馬克斯說，無論價格如何，沒有所謂好的或壞的想法。
08:12
Buying something that succeeds with growing 20% per year for the next seven years will generate a crappy performance if the stock is valued for growing 30% per year for the same period. For the patient and prepared, an opportunity is always around the corner.
So is the chance of acquiring a quality company at a discount.
因此，有機會以折扣價獲得一家優質公司。
08:31
Hey, you wouldn't want to buy the high-quality car from the intro at a 30 or 40% discount.
喂，你不會想以 30% 或 40% 的折扣購買開頭提到的高品質汽車。
08:38
Mr. Smith advocates an approach to try to pick up the door links on occasions when they, for some reason, are less loved by the market. And when you look at almost any excellent company story, like the aforementioned before, you'll notice quite a few times when they fell dramatically
in valuation. If you are prepared with a list of your most sought-after gems, you can be the lucky guy who picks one up at 40% from its top quotation.
如果你準備了一份最渴望的寶石清單，你可以成為那個以頂峰報價 40% 折扣撿到一個的人。
09:04
There are some common themes among the situations when a darling is on an underserved discount.
在某些情況下，當一個寵兒被低估時，有一些共同的主題。
09:09
Quarterly results below expectations.
季度業績低於預期。
09:13
When a darling that trades at, let's say, PE40 reports only a mediocre quarter with 20% growth instead of the market's expected 35%, it can cause its stock to tumble.
When this happens, you should keep in mind what Terry Smith says.
當這種情況發生時，你應該記住泰瑞·史密斯的話。
09:27
A year is just a lap around the sun.
一年不過是繞太陽一圈。
09:31
And well, a quarter is just, you know, one-fourth of that.
而一個季度，也不過是其中的四分之一。
09:36
Who says that business performance must adhere to the movement of heavenly bodies?
誰說企業績效必須遵循天體的運行？
09:41
There's nothing magic about it.
這並沒有什麼神奇的。
09:43
Just a minor miss on a three-month basis can sometimes change the sentiment of the company to go from, this business is taking over the world, to, with this company even be around in five years.
If you can keep a long-term view when everyone else is short-sighted, you can pick up even great companies at fair prices from time to time.
如果你能在其他人都短視近利時保持長遠眼光，你就能時不時以合理價格買入優秀公司。
10:03
A general panic.
一場全面性恐慌。
10:05
As we saw in the COVID crash, when the whole herd of sheep starts running in the same direction, pushing the sell button in this instance, more or less everything tumbles.
Yet, plenty of companies and some whole sectors actually benefited from the pandemic.
然而，許多公司甚至整個行業實際上從疫情中受益。
10:29
Take Microsoft, for example.
以微軟為例。
10:30
The stock took a hit of roughly 25%, even though it required quite some imagination to reach the conclusion that their operations would be negatively affected by the new virus.
該股票下跌約25%，儘管要得出其業務會受新病毒負面影響的結論，需要相當的想像力。
10:41
So, if you're fishing in the waters of quality companies with above-average multiples, it's frequently a good idea to wait until the next storm to pull out your fishing rod.
But how do you recognize when a business is a bargain?
但你如何辨認一家公司是否物超所值？
10:57
Take away number four, don't let the paint job fool you.
第四個要點：不要被表面的粉飾所迷惑。
11:02
I think most of you know what a PE ratio is.
我想你們大多數人都知道什麼是本益比。
11:05
Basically, it's a tool to assess how pricey a company is.
基本上，它是一個評估公司價格是否過高的工具。
11:08
But did you know that sometimes it can fool you just like a nice paint job on a crappy car?
但你知道有時它可能像一輛破車上的漂亮油漆一樣騙你嗎？
11:15
If you've ever purchased a used car before, you've probably experienced this.
如果你曾經買過二手車，可能就有過這種經歷。
11:19
It looks fine on the outside, it looks clean on the inside, but when you look under the hood, it's a mess.
外觀看起來不錯，內部也很乾淨，但當你打開引擎蓋，卻是一團糟。
11:26
In the stock market, the equivalent is the great-looking earnings that turned out not to be so great after all.
在股市中，相當於這種情況的是那些看起來很棒的盈利，但最終卻不那麼理想。
11:33
Unfortunately, the earnings of a company, and therefore also our favorite PE ratio, is quite easy to manipulate for the CFO with mischief on its mind.
不幸的是，公司的盈利，以及我們喜愛的本益比，對於心懷不軌的財務長來說，相當容易操縱。
11:43
For example, the earnings per share may not be growing as fast as you thought due to investors being continuously diluted by the creation of additional shares.
例如，每股盈利的成長速度可能不如你想像的那麼快，因為投資者持續被新發行的股票稀釋。
11:52
The pie is getting bigger, but so is the number of shareholders that get to split it.
蛋糕變大了，但分享蛋糕的股東數量也在增加。
11:58
Or, instead of the diluted shareholders, another reason for some mild sobbing could be the discovery of manipulated earnings.
或者，除了被稀釋的股東，另一個讓人輕微哭泣的原因可能是發現盈利被操縱。
12:05
For instance, depreciation can be exaggerated or understated, depending on the intentions of the CFO.
例如，折舊可以被夸大或低估，取決於財務長的意圖。
12:12
Or sometimes, a company capitalizes more of their costs than might actually be warranted.
或者有時，公司會將更多的成本資本化，超過實際合理的範圍。
12:17
Back to the car.
回到汽車的例子。
12:19
How does an investor void finding out that it is a wreck only after hours of analyzing it?
投資者如何避免在分析數小時後才發現這是一輛廢車？
12:24
There's another more robust measurement that you can use instead of earnings, according to Mr. Smith.
根據史密斯先生的說法，你可以使用另一個更穩健的衡量標準來代替盈利。
12:30
This is the free cash flow or FCF yield per share.
這就是每股自由現金流量或FCF收益率。
12:34
Go to the cash flow statement of a company.
查看公司的現金流量表。
12:37
Calculate the cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures per share, and divide it by the price of each share.
計算每股營業現金流量減去資本支出，然後除以每股價格。
12:44
And there you have it.
這樣你就得到了。
12:45
Although Warren Buffett has never presented an explicit calculation of what he calls owners earnings, I think the FCF yield falls very close to that.
雖然沃倫·巴菲特從未明確計算過他所謂的所有者盈利，但我認為FCF收益率非常接近這個概念。
12:54
This is cash that can be used to acquire other businesses, pay a dividend to you as a shareholder, or just be saved for a rainy day.
這些現金可以用於收購其他業務，向股東支付股利，或者儲備以備不時之需。
13:03
Takeaway number five.
第五個要點。
13:05
No car is a true all-rounder.
沒有一輛車是真正的全能車。
13:08
A Tesla might be a great car to own if you drive primarily in the city.
如果你主要在城市裡開車，特斯拉可能是一輛很好的車。
13:12
However, occasionally, you'll find that you will have to visit your mother-in-law, who lives 10 hours away.
但是，偶爾你會發現你必須去探望住在10小時車程外的岳母。
13:19
Then you're probably going to wish that you had some other car.
那時你可能會希望自己有其他車。
13:22
But should you throw away your Tesla just because of this?
但你是否應該因為這個原因而扔掉你的特斯拉？
13:26
No.
不。
13:26
You can't find a car that is optimal and performs the best in every single situation, and that's true for stock market companies too.
你無法找到一輛在每種情況下都表現最佳的車，這對股市中的公司也是如此。
13:36
Many investors fall into the trap of trying to switch investment strategies, or perhaps fund managers, to always chase performance.
許多投資者陷入了試圖切換投資策略或基金經理的陷阱，以追求業績。
13:45
Perhaps your growth at a fair price strategy was outperformed in 2021 by a friend who had leveraged the S&P 500 by 300% strategy.
也許你的合理價格成長策略在2021年被一位朋友的300%杠桿標普500策略超越。
13:54
Is this a reason for switching?
這是否是切換的理由？
13:57
There are a lot of factors affecting what is hot and what is not in any given market.
有許多因素影響著在任何給定市場中什麼是熱門，什麼不是。
14:02
Investors' willingness to bear risk is ever changing with macro factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and belief position in the economic cycle.
投資者承擔風險的意願隨著宏觀因素不斷變化，例如利率、通脹和經濟週期中的信念位置。
14:11
Again, a year is just the time it takes the earth to go around the sun.
再說一次，一年只是地球繞太陽一周的時間。
14:17
Why would one year be a reasonable period for you to measure your or anyone else's performance, just because of some movement of heavenly bodies?
為什麼一年會是你衡量自己或他人業績的合理時期，僅僅因為一些天體的運動？
14:25
More ideally, is to evaluate your results after a whole economic cycle, through both a bull and a bear market.
更理想的是，在整個經濟週期後評估你的結果，經歷牛市和熊市。
14:33
Only then can you tell whose strategy was actually the winning one.
只有到那時，你才能知道誰的策略實際上是獲勝的。
14:37
If you have a sound process, stay true to it, or you might end up buying high, selling low, doomed to repeat until your portfolio is hollow.
如果你有一個可靠的過程，堅持它，否則你可能會高買低賣，註定重複直到你的投資組合空空如也。
14:46
Leaders of the respective industries oftentimes represent great potential investments.
各行業的領導者通常代表著巨大的投資潛力。
14:51
Dividends can be practical, but they are definitely no requirement.
股息可以是實用的，但絕對不是必需的。
14:56
For the patient and prepared, there will be occasions when even the strongest companies can be snapped up at fair prices.
對於有耐心和準備的人來說，即使是最強大的公司也會有機會以合理的價格被收購。
15:03
Avoid getting mesmerized by a paint job by going under the hood and investigating the FCF yield.
避免被表面現象迷惑，要深入調查自由現金流量收益率。
15:10
Investing strategies should be examined over full market cycles, at minimum.
投資策略至少應該在完整的市場週期內進行檢驗。
15:16
Now, if you want to learn more, check out this video on Picking Growth Stocks, which is written by the father of growth investing, Thomas Rowe Price Jr.
"Justaminormissonathree-monthbasiscansometimeschangethesentimentofthecompanytogofrom, thisbusinessistakingovertheworld, to, withthiscompanyevenbearoundinfiveyears."
