Have you ever talked to someone and when you mentioned that you're an investor in the stock market, you've been asked this?
你是否曾經與人交談，當你提到自己是股市投資者時，被問到這個問題？
00:06
Aren't there plenty of professionals out there who dedicate their life-scerning money in the stock market?
那裡不是有很多專業人士終生致力於在股市中賺錢嗎？
00:11
What makes you think that you can beat those guys at their own game?
你為什麼認為自己能在他們的遊戲中擊敗他們？
00:16
I know, I've been asked this on multiple occasions.
我知道，我已經被問過多次這個問題。
00:19
And it's an important topic.
這是一個重要的話題。
00:21
Can the amateur investor earn money while there are so-called professionals in the same market?
當市場上有所謂的專業人士時，業餘投資者能賺錢嗎？
00:27
Could it even be so that the individual investor has the upper hand?
甚至可能個人投資者更佔優勢？
00:32
In one up on Wall Street, the legendary investor Peter Lynch reveals how his amateur approach to investing has led him to become one of the most successful investors of all time.
Takeaway number one, why the individual investor can beat the pros.
要點一，為什麼個人投資者能擊敗專業人士。
00:53
Surely the amateur doesn't stand a chance against the might of Wall Street.
當然，業餘投資者在華爾街的強大力量面前沒有機會。
00:57
Doesn't Wall Street have a ton of analysts from the fanciest Ivy League schools working 80 hours every week to find bargain stocks?
華爾街不是有很多來自常春藤盟校的分析師每週工作80小時來尋找便宜的股票嗎？
01:06
Surely, there can't be any left for the amateurs, right?
當然，不可能有剩下的機會給業餘投資者，對吧？
01:11
According to Peter Lynch, this assumption is dead wrong.
根據彼得·林奇的說法，這個假設是完全錯誤的。
01:16
In fact, the professional investor has many disadvantages compared to the amateur.
事實上，專業投資者與業餘投資者相比有許多劣勢。
01:21
Here are a few of them.
以下是其中的一些。
01:23
Size.
規模。
01:25
A successful money manager will naturally attract a lot of capital.
一個成功的基金經理自然會吸引大量資本。
01:29
And more capital means less opportunities.
而更多的資本意味著更少的機會。
01:33
For instance, a $10 billion fund cannot invest in a company with a market cap of $10 million and expect the investment to have a meaningful impact on the fund's overall performance.
There's a saying on Wall Street that you'll never lose your job losing your client's money in an IBM.
華爾街有句話說，你不會因為在IBM上虧損客戶的錢而失去工作。
01:56
Meaning that if you're just another sheep in the herd, you'll get to keep your job.
意思是，如果你只是羊群中的一隻羊，你就能保住飯碗。
02:01
Remember that fund managers have their own agendas and that they too are employees with jobs that aren't guaranteed.
記住，基金經理有自己的議程，他們也是員工，工作並不保證。
02:09
There's a lot of explaining.
有很多需要解釋的地方。
02:11
Fund managers tend to spend about 25% of their time explaining to various stakeholders about why they made certain decisions.
基金經理傾向於花費約25%的時間向各利益相關者解釋為何做出某些決定。
02:20
Unfortunately, stocks aren't sympathetic enough to yield an extra 25% for this increased effort.
不幸的是，股票不會因為這額外的25%努力而多給你25%的回報。
02:28
Capital is dependent on clients.
資本依賴於客戶。
02:31
As a fund manager is investing other people's money.
因為基金經理是在投資別人的錢。
02:34
Other people are also deciding how much money the manager has at disposal.
其他人也在決定經理有多少錢可以支配。
02:39
The issue is that these other people aren't savvy investors themselves.
問題在於這些人自己並不是精明的投資者。
02:45
They tend to pull back their money during bear markets and put in more of it during bulls, which is exactly the opposite of what one should do.
他們傾向於在熊市中撤回資金，在牛市中投入更多，這與應該做的完全相反。
02:54
This leaves the manager with the following dilemma.
這讓經理面臨以下困境。
02:57
He has a lot of money to invest when everything is expensive and too little of it when everything is cheap.
當一切都很貴的時候，他有很多錢可以投資，而當一切都很便宜的時候，錢卻不夠。
03:04
Does the individual investor have any of these disadvantages?
個人投資者有這些劣勢嗎？
03:09
No!
沒有！
03:11
In fact, the amateur investor often has a great advantage over the professionals, which we'll discuss in the next takeaway.
事實上，業餘投資者經常比專業人士擁有更大的優勢，我們將在下一個要點中討論。
03:21
Takeaway number two.
要點二。
03:23
If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock.
如果你喜歡這家店，你很可能會喜歡這支股票。
03:27
If you're a software engineer, a cashier at the local mall, a professional musician, a surfer, a fast food addict, or a crazy cat lady, you have an edge over Wall Street.
We all have certain industries, products and services that we know more about than the average person does.
我們都有某些行業、產品和服務，比一般人更了解。
03:53
Perhaps we know more about the fashion industry because we work at a local clothing store.
也許我們對時尚業更了解，因為我們在當地的服裝店工作。
03:59
Or perhaps we know more about the gaming industry because we consume games ourselves as our primary leisure activity.
或者我們對遊戲業更了解，因為我們自己把玩遊戲作為主要的休閒活動。
04:05
The point is that we all have valuable information about publicly listed companies through our everyday life.
重點是，我們在日常生活中都擁有關於上市公司的寶貴資訊。
04:13
And this is information that Wall Street either doesn't know of yet or had to spend hundreds of hours of market research to realize.
而這些資訊華爾街可能還不知道，或者需要花費數百小時的市場調查才能發現。
04:21
Peter Lynch famously said that, if you like the store, chances are that you'll love the stock.
彼得·林奇曾經說過，如果你喜歡這家店，那麼你很可能會喜歡這支股票。
04:28
Think about it.
好好想想。
04:29
Which products do you enjoy and use from publicly listed companies?
你喜歡並使用哪些上市公司的產品？
04:33
Here's a list of some of mine.
這是我的一些清單。
04:35
Spotify.
Spotify。
04:37
An awesome Swedish music streaming service, which I use for one to two hours a day.
一個很棒的瑞典音樂串流服務，我每天使用一到兩個小時。
04:43
I love to use it when I work out.
我喜歡在健身時使用它。
04:46
And I've spent about 120 bucks on it during the last year.
在過去的一年裡，我大概花了120美元在上面。
04:51
Pepsi.
百事可樂。
04:52
This summer, the new flavor Pepsi Lime was released in Sweden.
今年夏天，百事可樂的新口味百事青檸在瑞典推出。
04:56
And I've been a complete addict of it lately.
而我最近完全著迷於它。
04:59
I probably drink three of them every week or so.
我可能每週喝三罐左右。
05:02
So I spend more than 200 bucks on these every year.
所以我每年花超過200美元在這些東西上。
05:06
Amazon.
亞馬遜。
05:07
Well, I've probably been their best customer of 2018 as I buy all the books that I read for this channel from them.
我可能是他們2018年最好的客戶，因為我從他們那裡買了所有為這個頻道閱讀的書。
05:15
Not only that, but I prefer buying both the Kindle and the audio if possible.
不僅如此，我還盡可能同時購買Kindle版和有聲書。
05:21
As I've found that I can finish the books in half the time that way.
因為我發現這樣可以用一半的時間完成閱讀。
05:25
On a yearly basis, I spend $1,500 or more for this service.
每年，我花1,500美元或更多在這項服務上。
05:30
When you're looking for investment opportunities this way, you must always remember to check how much the product or service that you enjoy affects the bottom line for the company.
當你以這種方式尋找投資機會時，一定要記得檢查你喜歡的產品或服務對公司的最終利潤有多大影響。
05:40
For example, sure, I'm an addict of the new Pepsi Lime flavor.
例如，我承認我對新的百事柠檬口味上癮。
05:43
I admit it.
我承認。
05:45
But let's say that this product only makes up two percent of the company's total profits.
但假設這個產品只佔公司總利潤的2%。
05:50
Then it doesn't really make sense for me to buy Pepsi based on me loving the Pepsi Lime.
那麼基於我喜歡百事柠檬而購買百事股票就沒有意義。
05:57
Takeaway number three, the six categories of stock investments.
第三個要點，股票投資的六大類別。
06:02
All investment opportunities aren't created equal.
並非所有投資機會都是平等的。
06:06
To lump them all together and treat them accordingly would be a foolish and not so profitable strategy.
將它們全部混為一談並同等對待是愚蠢且不太盈利的策略。
06:12
Peter Lynch argues that there are six different categories of stock investments.
彼得·林奇認為有六種不同的股票投資類別。
06:18
These are...
它們是...
06:20
Slow growers.
緩慢成長型。
06:21
This company is typically large and operates in a mature industry.
這類公司通常規模較大，並在成熟的行業中運營。
06:25
The growth of the company is expected to be in the low single digits of percentages.
公司的成長預計將在低個位數的百分比範圍內。
06:31
If you invest in such a company, you typically do it for the dividends.
如果你投資這樣的公司，通常是為了股息。
06:35
Lynch doesn't like this category of stocks too much, as he thinks that if the company isn't going anywhere fast, neither will its stock price.
林奇不太喜歡這類股票，因為他認為如果公司發展不快，其股價也不會快速上漲。
06:46
Stolwarts.
穩健型股票。
06:47
The Stolwarts are the in-betweeners.
穩健型股票介於兩者之間。
06:50
They're not exactly the stock market's equivalent of cheetahs, but they're no snails either.
它們不完全等同於股市中的獵豹，但也不像蝸牛那樣緩慢。
06:56
An earnings growth rate of 10 to 12% per year is standard for this category.
這類股票的年收益增長率通常為10%至12%。
07:01
Under normal conditions, you want to sell these companies off if they make a quick 30 to 50% gain.
在正常情況下，如果這些公司的股價快速上漲30%至50%，你就應該考慮賣出。
07:08
Fast growers.
高成長股。
07:10
These are aggressive new enterprises growing at 20% or more per year.
這些是具有攻擊性的新企業，年增長率達20%或更高。
07:15
They're often priced thereafter, but if you can conclude that a company is likely to be able to keep up the growth for several years, it can be a great investment.
Always remember to verify your assumptions regarding the growth rate, though.
但要記得總是驗證你對增長率的假設。
07:29
For instance, if Amazon can keep up its revenue growth rate of 30% per year for the next 10 years, its revenue will be equal to the GDP of France in 2029.
Cyclicals are companies whose revenues and profits rise and fall with a business cycle.
周期性股票是指其營收和利潤隨著經濟週期波動的公司。
07:50
Typically, they produce services and or products that the consumers will postpone consumption of in times of financial uncertainty.
通常，它們提供的服務或產品是消費者在財務不確定時會推遲消費的。
07:59
An example is the automakers.
例如汽車製造商。
08:01
People don't necessarily have to switch cars every 6 years or so, even if they prefer to.
人們不一定每六年就必須換車，即使他們願意這麼做。
08:07
Timing is everything here.
時機在這裡至關重要。
08:10
If you can identify early signs of a booming or a busting cycle, you'll have the advantage.
如果你能早期識別出經濟繁榮或衰退的跡象，你將擁有優勢。
08:16
Turnarounds.
轉機型股票。
08:17
The turnarounds are potential fatalities, companies with declining earnings and or problematic balance sheets.
轉機型股票是潛在的致命投資，指的是那些盈利下滑或資產負債表出現問題的公司。
08:25
If the company doesn't go down and instead manages to flourish once again, stock owners are rewarded thereafter.
如果公司沒有倒下，反而重新繁榮起來，股東們隨後將獲得回報。
08:33
An interesting characteristic about the turnarounds is that their ups and downs aren't as related to the market in general as the rest of the categories.
轉機型股票的一個有趣特點是，它們的漲跌與市場整體的關聯性不如其他類別那麼大。
08:41
A situation where a company has gotten a temporary bad reputation is usually a profitable turnaround case.
當一家公司暫時獲得不良聲譽時，通常是一個有利可圖的轉機案例。
08:50
Asset place.
資產型股票。
08:52
Situations where the value of the company indicates that the market has missed out on something valuable that the company owns are asset place.
當公司的價值表明市場忽略了公司擁有的某些有價值的資產時，這些情況就是資產型股票。
09:00
Such undervalued assets could be real estate, patents, natural resources, subscribers or even company losses, as these are deductible from future earnings.
Benjamin Graham was a strong advocate of this approach.
本傑明·格雷厄姆是這種方法的堅定擁護者。
09:16
He famously looked for companies where the value of the assets were higher than the market cap of the stock, and he just waited until the stock market realized its mistake and corrected it.
他著名地尋找那些資產價值高於股票市值的公司，然後只是等待股市意識到自己的錯誤並加以糾正。
09:28
The six categories are explained in much greater detail in the book.
這六類股票在書中有更詳細的解釋。
09:32
When using these categories, one must understand that companies can belong to more than one of them at once.
在使用這些類別時，必須理解一家公司可能同時屬於多個類別。
09:38
Also, companies don't stay in the same category forever.
此外，公司不會永遠停留在同一類別中。
09:42
Take McDonald's for example.
以麥當勞為例。
09:44
It's gone from being a fast-grower, to a stalwart, to an asset-play, to a slow-grower.
它從快速成長型轉變為穩健型，再到資產型，最後成為緩慢成長型。
09:52
Takeaway number four, ten traits of the ten-bagger.
第四個要點，十倍股的十大特徵。
09:56
A ten-bagger is the expression that Peter Lynch uses to describe a stock which has appreciated to ten times your purchasing price.
十倍股是彼得·林奇用來描述一支股價上漲到購買價格十倍的股票。
10:03
If you have a few of these during your investing lifetime, you'll become a legend.
如果你在投資生涯中擁有幾支這樣的股票，你將成為傳奇。
10:09
Different types of stocks must be treated differently, as stated in the previous takeaway.
如上一個要點所述，不同類型的股票必須區別對待。
10:14
But there are also similarities.
但它們也有相似之處。
10:17
Here are ten positive signs for a stock, regardless if it's an asset-play or a fast-grower.
以下是十個股票的積極信號，無論它是資產型還是快速成長型。
10:23
One, the company name is dull, or even better, ridiculous.
第一，公司名稱沉悶，甚至更好的是，荒謬。
10:29
Such companies tend to be overlooked.
這類公司往往被忽略。
10:31
The pros of Wall Street will think twice before bragging about their recent investment in Maui Land and Pineapple Company Inc.
華爾街的專業人士在吹嘘他們最近對毛伊土地和菠蘿公司的投資時會三思而行。
10:39
It just sounds way too ridiculous.
聽起來實在太荒謬了。
10:43
Two, it does something dull.
第二，公司從事沉悶的業務。
10:47
Three, it does something disagreeable.
第三，公司從事不受歡迎的業務。
10:51
Better yet than doing something dull is to do something disagreeable.
從事不受歡迎的業務比從事沉悶的業務更好。
10:55
Swedish Match is a good example, which is the producer of the Swedish tobacco snooze.
瑞典火柴公司就是一個好例子，它是瑞典鼻煙的生產商。
11:01
Four, institutions don't own it, and it's not followed by any analysts.
第四，機構不持有該公司股票，且沒有分析師跟踪。
11:06
Such companies haven't been discovered yet by the big boys, which gives it an extra potential upside.
這類公司尚未被大型機構發現，因此具有額外的上漲潛力。
11:13
Five, there's something depressing about it.
第五，公司有令人沮喪的地方。
11:17
The Burial Company Service Corporation International is a classic example.
葬禮服務公司國際集團就是一個經典例子。
11:23
Six, the company's industry isn't growing.
第六，公司所在的行業沒有增長。
11:26
In the high-growth industries, thousands of people are constantly thinking about how they can grab a part of the market share.
在高增長行業中，數以千計的人不斷思考如何抓住部分市場份額。
11:34
Stalling industries, on the other hand, aren't as prone to competition.
而停滯的行業不太容易受到競爭。
11:39
Seven, it's got a niche.
第七，公司有利基市場。
11:42
These are the companies with moats that Warren Buffett is famously looking for.
這些是擁有護城河的公司，沃倫·巴菲特著名的尋找目標。
11:47
Eight, it has reoccurring revenues.
第八，公司有經常性收入。
11:50
The product is a subscription, or something that is consumed, so that the customers are forced to return for more.
產品是訂閱服務或消耗品，迫使客戶不斷回購。
11:58
Nine, insiders are buying.
第九，內部人士正在買入。
12:01
The insiders know more about the company than anyone else.
內部人士比任何人都更了解公司。
12:04
When they are buying, you can be pretty sure that, at the very least, the company isn't going bankrupt soon.
當他們買進時，你可以相當確定，至少公司不久後不會破產。
12:11
Ten, the company is buying back shares.
第十，公司正在回購股份。
12:15
If a company has faith in itself, it should invest in itself.
如果公司對自己有信心，就應該投資自己。
12:20
Peter Lynch prefers share buybacks for dividends.
彼得·林奇更喜歡股份回購而不是股息。
12:26
Takeaway number five, five traits of the reversed ten bagger.
第五個重點，十倍回報股的五個逆向特徵。
12:31
And of course, there are also general don'ts, that you don't want to see in any type of company that you are investing in.
當然，也有一些普遍的禁忌，這些是你不希望在任何投資的公司中看到的。
12:38
One, it's in a hot industry.
一、它處於熱門行業。
12:41
As previously mentioned, everyone is looking for ways to get into the hot industries.
如前所述，每個人都在尋找進入熱門行業的方法。
12:47
Competition is typically a bad omen for profits.
競爭通常是利潤的不祥之兆。
12:51
Two, it's the next something.
二、它是下一個某某公司。
12:55
Beware when someone expresses that it's the next Amazon, the next Facebook, the next Google, or similar.
當有人說它是下一個亞馬遜、下一個Facebook、下一個Google或類似的公司時，要小心。
13:03
Usually, it's not.
通常，它不是。
13:05
Three, the company is diversifying.
三、公司正在多元化。
13:09
Some call it diversification, but Lynch likes to refer to it as di-worse-ification.
有些人稱之為多元化，但林奇喜歡稱之為「惡化」（di-worse-ification）。
13:16
If the company is acquiring other companies in unrelated industries, stay away.
如果公司正在收購其他無關行業的公司，請遠離。
13:22
Four, it's dependent on a single customer.
四、它依賴單一客戶。
13:26
Some companies are relying on one customer for a significant share of profits.
有些公司依賴一個客戶獲得大部分利潤。
13:32
Usually, this is a weak bargaining position to be in, and the company can potentially be squeezed by this only customer.
通常，這是一個弱勢的談判地位，公司可能會被這個唯一的客戶壓榨。
13:40
Five, it's a whisper stock.
五、它是一個傳聞股。
13:43
These are the long shots, often thought of as being on the brink of doing something miraculous, like curing every type of cancer, completely removing any addiction, or creating world peace.
The individual investor can beat the pros at their own game, because the game is rigged in the favor of the amateur.
個人投資者可以在專家的遊戲中擊敗他們，因為這個遊戲對業餘投資者有利。
14:08
Use your consumption habits and your 9-5 to identify investing opportunities in companies where you have an edge over the rest of the investing community.
利用你的消費習慣和你的朝九晚五工作，來發現投資機會，在你比其他投資者更有優勢的公司中。
14:18
All investment opportunities aren't created equal.
並非所有投資機會都是平等的。
14:22
You can usually categorize them into one or more of the following six.
你通常可以將它們分為以下六類中的一種或多種。
14:26
Slow growers, stalwarts, fast growers, cyclicals, turn rounds, and or asset plays.
緩慢成長型、穩健型、快速成長型、週期型、轉型型，以及資產型。
14:34
There are general positive traits of a stock, such as adult business, reoccurring revenues, and insider buying.
股票通常有一些普遍的正面特徵，比如成熟的業務、經常性收入，以及內部人士買入。
14:43
And there are also general negative traits, such as diversification and dependency on a single customer.
