I have just realized I've spent too much time in the past two weeks talking about Google and Amazon.
我剛意識到過去兩週我花了太多時間談論 Google 和 Amazon。
00:05
I want to go to one of your picks for next year.
我想談談你對明年看好的一支股票。
00:07
That is pound tier.
那就是 Palantir。
00:08
Make a case.
請說明理由。
00:09
Oh, well, we love the name from a defense standpoint.
喔，嗯，從國防角度來看，我們很喜歡這支股票。
00:13
They are the leader in AI and data with Defense Department approval and usage, and then beyond that corporate adoption and sovereign adoption.
他們是人工智慧和數據領域的領導者，獲得國防部的批准和使用，除此之外，還有企業和主權國家的採用。
00:26
So we think the name continues.
所以我們認為這支股票會持續表現。
00:28
It's one of those names, Brian.
布萊恩，這就是那種股票。
00:30
You can't justify it from a valuation standpoint, just like one of our names in our six for 26 Tesla, which you were just talking about, hard to defend the valuation.
And I don't mean it's different this time or change your discipline.
我不是說這次情況不同，也不是要你改變原則。
01:19
You just have to look at things a little bit differently when the earnings are not what they might be based on valuation or at all in the case of Amazon.
當收益不如預期，或者像 Amazon 那樣根本沒有收益時，你必須以稍微不同的方式看待事物。
01:29
I missed the first, I don't know, 20 years of IPO life for Amazon, and the stock's up 175, 180,000 percent since the IPO.
We began to understand the world was different in many ways in terms of, this is a transformative company.
我們開始明白世界在許多方面都不同了，這是一家變革性的公司。
01:52
And that's what Palantir is.
而這就是 Palantir。
01:54
It's what a number of the names in our six for 26 are.
這也是我們「六支股票看2026年」名單中許多公司的特點。
01:57
What is the better by Nancy Palantir or Tesla, or should you have both of these names in your portfolio because they're both strong AI, please?
Nancy，Palantir 和 Tesla 哪一個更好？或者你的投資組合中應該同時擁有這兩支股票，因為它們都是強大的 AI 股，請說說看？
02:06
I mean, if I had to tip the scale, I would say Tesla is probably our favorite, and that's why it's in our six for 26.
我的意思是，如果我必須權衡，我會說 Tesla 可能是我們最喜歡的，這也是它被列入我們「六支股票看2026年」名單的原因。
02:15
It is the transformative AI leader.
它是變革性的 AI 領導者。
02:19
It's not just full self-driving, but it's also robotics.
它不只是全自動駕駛，還有機器人技術。
02:23
And even if you look beyond that and the XAI investment, the company is making of per shareholder approval, we think all that is super powerful.
即使你放眼於此，以及在股東批准下公司對 XAI 的投資，我們認為這一切都非常強大。
02:35
And we'd love to get a, you know, a bite at the space business when they IPO.
我們很樂意在他們 IPO 時，能分一杯羹於太空業務。
02:40
So I think this is a company that has a vision unlike, and it's the CEO, obviously, unlike any other company that we own.
所以我認為這是一家擁有獨特願景的公司，而且其執行長顯然與我們擁有的任何其他公司都不同。
02:49
How much of a factor on Tesla is Elon's $1 trillion pay package?
Elon 的萬億美元薪酬方案對 Tesla 的影響有多大？
02:54
I mean, how do you grade that because that could be, even for the world's richest person, that could be something highly motivating?
我的意思是，你如何評價這件事？因為即使對於世界上最富有的人來說，這也可能是一種高度的激勵。
03:00
Well, I think he's internally motivated.
嗯，我認為他有內在的動力。
03:03
If you had Walter Isaacson's biography, he said, Elon said, I'm programmed for war.
如果你讀過 Walter Isaacson 的傳記，他說 Elon 曾說：「我被設定為戰鬥。」
03:10
And that is when he is at his best.
那是他表現最好的時候。
03:12
He often teeters on the edge of disaster, pulls back just in time and then delivers on what many thought were ridiculous promises.
他經常在災難邊緣搖擺，卻總能及時拉回，然後兌現許多人認為荒謬的承諾。
03:22
And sometimes they've not happened in a timely fashion, for sure.
有時候它們確實沒有及時實現。
03:27
But if you look at what he is, he is envisioning, it's not just EVs, obviously.
但如果你看看他正在構想的，顯然不只是電動車。
03:34
I mean, the car numbers are disappointing, but think of Tesla's EV business to the AI portion of the business, what Apple's handset business was to services in the ecosystem.
And so Apple had many years of underperformance in terms of delivering growth in the handset business, but they were growing the services business at a rapid pace and continue to do so.
因此，蘋果在手機業務的成長方面表現不佳多年，但他們正以快速的步伐發展服務業務，並持續如此。
04:00
So we think he is the story.
所以我們認為他就是關鍵。
04:02
He delivered on the last sort of absurd levels of incentives for the company and is now actually going to get paid for that.
他實現了公司最後那些近乎荒謬的激勵措施，而現在他將因此獲得報酬。
04:12
It isn't the money for him.
對他來說，錢不是重點。
04:13
I think it's the control.
我認為是控制權。
04:15
Nancy, I think people forgot about Amazon.
南希，我認為人們忘了亞馬遜。
04:18
Underperform this year, I wrote a story yesterday on Yahoo!
今年表現不佳，我昨天在Yahoo!上寫了一篇文章。
04:20
Financing, laying out why the stock could rise 50% next year.
財經版，闡述了該股明年可能上漲50%的原因。
04:24
I got a lot of, let's say negative feedback on that.
我收到了很多，可以說是負面的回饋。
04:27
Very important.
非常重要。
04:28
I wasn't making this call.
我不是在做出這個判斷。
04:29
I was just laying out the reasons why it could happen.
我只是闡述了它可能發生的原因。
04:31
Am I out of my mind here?
我是不是瘋了？
04:34
Welcome to the investment business.
歡迎來到投資業。
04:37
No, I saw it.
不，我看到了。
04:38
And I do agree.
而且我確實同意。
04:39
I think there are a number.
我認為有很多原因。
04:40
It's been a laggard.
它一直表現落後。
04:42
They delivered robust earnings.
他們公佈了強勁的盈利。
04:44
I mean, really a massive earnings beat last quarter.
我的意思是，上個季度獲利確實大幅超出預期。
04:47
The AWS business is very mature, but still growing at 20%.
AWS業務已經非常成熟，但仍以20%的速度增長。
04:51
And they offered this tidbit that I didn't see many people talk about.
他們還透露了一條我沒看到很多人討論的資訊。
04:56
And that is that October growth in that business was bigger than the whole third quarter.
那就是該業務在十月份的增長，比整個第三季度的增長還要大。
05:01
So I wouldn't underestimate them.
所以我不會低估他們。
05:04
Trainium is at full capacity and has a backlog.
Trainium已滿載運轉，並有積壓訂單。
05:08
And it's a stock that's trading at a peg of 1.4 times.
這檔股票的PEG為1.4倍。
05:11
If you go back and look at the S&P historically, it's traded at a peg of 1.5 to 2 times.
如果你回頭看歷史上的標普指數，它的PEG通常在1.5到2倍之間。
05:17
So I think this company is fairly valued and has the ability to deliver not just robust earnings growth, but free cash flow is going to increase next year to levels we haven't seen in five years.
5Beyondfullself-driving, whatotherareaismentionedaspartofTesla'sAIleadership?除了全自動駕駛，影片還提到 Tesla AI 領導力的哪個其他領域？Beyondfullself-driving, whatotherareaismentionedaspartofTesla'sAIleadership?
7WhatcomparisonismadebetweenTesla'sEVbusinessandApple'sbusiness?Tesla 的電動車業務與 Apple 的業務之間做了什麼比較？WhatcomparisonismadebetweenTesla'sEVbusinessandApple'sbusiness?
