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this video is sponsored by morningbrew visit the link in the description below to sign up for their daily newsletter
本影片由 Morning Brew 贊助，請點擊下方描述中的連結訂閱他們的每日電子報
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today ladies and gentlemen welcome to the plain bagel I'm your host Richard coffin
各位觀眾朋友大家好，歡迎來到 Plain Bagel，我是主持人 Richard Coffin
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today's video is a bit of a peek behind the curtain to show you how the bagels are made and discuss my own investment
今天的影片有點像是幕後揭秘，向大家展示貝果是如何製作的，並討論我個人的投資研究過程
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research process as a investment analyst I've had this requested quite a few times over the years given that I work
身為一名投資分析師，這些年來我被要求分享這個主題很多次了，考慮到我的正職工作
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as a portfolio manager investment analyst for my day job and I figured what the heck I would cover things at a
是擔任投資組合經理和投資分析師，我想說不如就來試試看，從宏觀層面
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high level go through my general step-by-step process and it's not a very formal one I do change things up every
概述我一般性的逐步流程，這並不是一個非常正式的流程，我也會不時進行調整，但希望
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now and then but hopefully uh people who want to go through this process themselves find a bit of value in it now
想要自己執行這個過程的人，能從中獲得一些價值
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if you notice before we get started firstly this isn't a recommendation that people should necessarily stock pick or
在開始之前，如果你有注意到，首先，這並不是在建議大家一定要選股或
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do their own stock research I think most people are better served putting their efforts elsewhere either hiring a
自己做股票研究。我認為大多數人把精力放在其他地方會更好，例如聘請
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professional or just investing passively countless Studies have shown just how difficult it is to beat the market with
專業人士，或是單純進行被動投資。無數研究顯示，要靠選股打敗市場是多麼困難，
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stock picking so unless you're passionate about researching stocks you'll probably find this all very
所以除非你對研究股票充滿熱情，否則你可能會覺得這一切非常
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boring and strenuous with no guarantee of strong performance and secondly while this is obviously my own research
無聊又費力，且無法保證有亮眼的表現。其次，雖然這顯然是我個人的研究
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process us there are different ways to research a stock there's technical analysis which focuses on past prices
方法，但研究股票的方式有很多種。有技術分析，著重於過去的價格；
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there's quantitative analysis which focuses on analyzing the relationship between different quantitative variables
有量化分析，著重於分析不同量化變數之間的關係；
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and then there's fundamental analysis which is my own approach of understanding the underlying business
再來是基本面分析，這是我用來理解底層商業模式的方法。
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and within fundamental analysis there are different styles as well I do generally tilt towards value investing
而在基本面分析中，也有不同的風格。我通常傾向於價值投資，
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which is trying to buy a great company at a great price but there is also growth investing which I do hold some
試圖以好價格買下一家好公司，但也有成長投資，我也持有一些
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growth companies where you pay up a little bit more but they have a larger potential to grow their profits into the
成長型公司，你必須支付稍高的價格，但它們未來的獲利成長潛力更大。
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future this video will be divided into chapters so you can skip between the different sections I'll try to provide
這部影片會分成幾個章節，讓你可以在不同段落間跳躍。我會盡量提供
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alternative tools to the paid ones I use at work and I'll also throw up a few terms and and whatever on screen so that
我工作中使用的付費工具的替代方案，並在螢幕上顯示一些術語和其他資訊，以便
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you can have something to reference later on and for the purpose of saving time I won't try to Define every
這樣日後才有東西可以參考，為了節省時間，我不會試圖定義所有
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individual metric that that comes up and we'll generally like mentioned keep things high level so with that out of
出現的個別指標，我們會如之前提到的，保持在宏觀層面。那麼，既然講清楚了，
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the way let's jump into it the first step as you can imagine is screening for ideas and finding the stock that you
我們就開始吧。第一步如你所想，是篩選想法並找出你想研究的股票。
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want to research the whole research process takes quite a long time it has taken weeks at times but obviously
整個研究過程需要很長時間，有時甚至耗時數週，但顯然
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you'll want to narrow down your list of potential stocks so you don't waste your time doing this whole process only to
你會希望縮小潛力股的名單，以免浪費時間跑完這整個流程後，
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find that you don't really care for the company now screening isn't necessarily a formal process I do sometimes just
才發現自己其實不喜歡那家公司。篩選不一定是個正式的流程，我有時只是
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research a stock because I want to or there's been an interesting recent development but I do have a screener
因為想研究某支股票，或是有有趣的近期發展就去研究了，但我確實有一個
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that I regularly refer to a screener lets you filter the universe of stocks so that you only have a list of
我經常使用的篩選器。篩選器能讓你過濾整個股票池，讓你只留下
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companies that meet certain criteria I generally keep it pretty broad but we'll look for things like Revenue growth
符合特定標準的公司名單。我通常保持廣泛的條件，但我們會尋找像營收成長、
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being profitable as well as keeping debt within a certain range from there I'll typically put the tickers through an
獲利能力，以及將負債維持在特定範圍內的公司。從那裡，我通常會將股票代碼放入一個
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internal tool that summarizes all their key financial information onto a one-page summary not to make any
內部工具，該工具會將所有關鍵財務資訊彙總成一頁摘要，不是要
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decision off of but again just to get a quick overview of how healthy or unhealthy the company is and whether
據此做任何決定，而只是為了快速概覽公司的健康或不健康狀況，以及
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it's something I want to look into covering things like past financial performance expected consensus estimates
是否是我想要深入研究的標的。涵蓋的內容包括過去的財務表現、未來的預期共識估值、
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moving forward their debt levels a bunch of sales just again summarized on a page to see if there's anything of Interest
他們的負債水平、一堆銷售數據，同樣都彙總在一頁上，看看是否有什麼值得關注的點。
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here now once I have the company that I do decide I want to do this deep dive into the second step is understanding
現在，一旦我決定要對某家公司進行深入研究，第二步就是理解
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the business makes sense I know that sounds obvious but as an investor you really are a part
這門生意是否合理。我知道這聽起來很明顯，但作為投資者，你其實是
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business owner so I do try to take the mindset of understanding the ins and outs of the company in the same way I
公司的部分所有者。所以我確實會試著抱持心態，去理解公司的裡裡外外，就像
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might if I were to buy a private practice and that means understanding all the company's segments and what they
我要買下一間私人診所那樣。這意味著要理解公司的所有部門及其
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do how they earn their money uh the nature of the company's revenues and whether they're contractual recurring or
業務、他們如何賺錢、公司收入的性質，以及這些收入是契約性的、經常性的還是
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seasonal where the company operates in terms of geography customers suppliers employees Regulators management anyone
季節性的、公司在地理上的營運範圍、客戶、供應商、員工、監管機構、管理層，以及任何人
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that plays a role in how this company will perform and depending on which sector the company operates within also
這在評估公司未來表現上扮演重要角色，且根據公司所處的產業板塊不同
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make note of their key performance indicators or kpis which again are kind of sector specific allow you to compare
需留意其關鍵績效指標（KPI），這些指標通常具產業特性，可讓你比較
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companies that are within the same sector but also requires a bit of Industry background information and
同產業的公司，但也需要具備一定的產業背景知識，且
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there are times where I don't research a company because I don't yet have that familiarity with the industry it
有時我不會研究某家公司，因為我對其所處的產業尚不熟悉，
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operates with and you do have to operate as mentioned many times by others within your circle of competence where you feel
如同許多人多次提過，你必須在自己感到安心的「能力圈」範圍內運作，
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comfortable now this part is mostly qualitative there will be say quantitative figures that come up but a
這部分主要是定性分析，雖然也會涉及一些定量數據，
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lot of it is again just understanding the details of the operations what this company does so where does
但重點在於理解公司的營運細節與業務內容。那麼，該去哪裡
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someone find all this information well outside of a Google search which is not a bad idea to give you an overview of
尋找這些資訊呢？除了Google搜尋（用於初步了解公司概況是個不錯的起點），
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the company a good idea is to start with the annual report or 10K in the US as well as the most recent quarterly report
最好從年報或美國的10-K文件開始，以及最近的季報，
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if that doesn't also apply to the 10K all of which you can find on Edgar in the U.S Cedar here in Canada or the
若10-K文件尚未涵蓋，這些文件都可以在美國的EDGAR、加拿大的SEDAR，
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company's investor relations page because they do do a good overview of the company's business the risks
或公司的投資人關係頁面找到，因為他們通常會對公司業務、風險
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applicable and key financial information from there I like to go through investor reports and recent 8K filings which
及關鍵財務資訊做很好的概述。接著，我會檢視投資人報告與最近的8-K文件，
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provide important updates about the business and I do have access to a lot of paid for research which I'll
這些文件提供業務的重要更新。我也能使用許多付費研究資源，
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typically go through the external analysts reports on this company I also might look up commercials tutorials
通常會閱讀外部分析師對該公司的報告，我也可能會搜尋商業教程、
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customer reviews find any information I can about them now as you expect that's a lot of details so I do type notes as
客戶評論，尋找任何能找到的相關資訊。如你所預期，這涉及大量細節，所以我會一邊做筆記，
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I'm going I do typically categorize stuff under the SWOT framework which is strengths weaknesses opportunities and
通常會依照SWOT架構分類，也就是優勢（Strengths）、劣勢（Weaknesses）、機會（Opportunities）與
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threats strengths and weaknesses are internal factors for the company opportunities and and threats are
威脅（Threats）。優勢與劣勢是公司的內部因素，機會與威脅則是
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external factors and that just lets me quickly categorize stuff I'll also write questions that I want to get to later if
外部因素，這能讓我快速分類資訊。我也會寫下日後想探討的問題，
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there's something I don't understand or a risk that I've thought of that I want to look into I kind of do a parking lot
如果有不懂的地方，或是想到某個風險想深入研究，我會建立一個「停車場」（Parking Lot），
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of ideas that I want to go back and research at a later point and my goal through all this is trying to find
列出之後想回頭研究的想法，而我這一切的目標，就是試圖找出
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Quality Companies companies that have a competitive Advantage an attractive business model and as Warren Buffett
品質型公司，具備競爭優勢、具吸引力的商業模式，以及如華倫·巴菲特所說
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likes to put in a mode something that sort of protects them from competition all right so once we understand the
能夠抵禦競爭的護城河。好了，一旦我們了解了這家企業，
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business the next step is understanding the finances where we get into the numbers obviously this is very number
下一步就是了解財務狀況，也就是深入數字分析。這部分顯然非常依賴數字，
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heavy and does require an accounting background to understand the different segments that you look at but generally
且確實需要會計背景才能理解你所關注的不同面向，但一般來說，
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I'm looking at the company's financial position in terms of debt how solvent they are their capital structure and
我會關注公司的財務狀況，包括債務、償債能力、資本結構，
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whether they can meet their payments the company's growth profile their profitability and again where they have
以及他們是否能履行付款義務。還有公司的成長概況、獲利能力，以及
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areas for improvement a lot of this as you would imagine does really boil down to analyzing the financial state
哪些地方有改善空間。如你所想，這很多部分其實都歸結於分析財務報表：
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statements the income statement which tells you how the company performed in the given year in terms of accounting
損益表，告訴你在給定年份公司的會計盈餘表現；
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earnings the balance sheet which gives you the snapshot of what the company owns and what they owe as well as the
資產負債表，提供公司擁有什麼、欠什麼的快照；
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cash flow statement which is similar to the income statement but shows you where cash is actually moving within the
以及現金流量表，它類似於損益表，但顯示的是現金在企業內實際的流動情況，
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business not just accounting earnings and accounting costs where money was actually spent and earned now I
不僅僅是會計盈餘與會計成本，而是錢實際花在哪裡、在哪裡賺進來。我通常
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typically start by calculating a bunch of cumulative average growth rates which I'll throw out the formula for but I'll
會先計算一系列的累積平均成長率，我會把公式寫出來，但我會
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do this formula over a 5 10 or 15 year period to get an idea of what the average growth rate over these periods
對過去 5 年、10 年或 15 年的期間進行這個計算，以了解這些期間
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are for revenues and profit measures I also really like common size financial statements where you put everything as a
營收和利潤指標的平均成長率。我也很喜歡共同比財務報表，也就是將所有項目
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percentage of a key figures so for the income statement that's revenue for the balance sheet that's total assets and
表示為某個關鍵數字的百分比。對於損益表，關鍵數字是營收；對於資產負債表，則是總資產。
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this is a great way to look from year to year to see what costs are getting bigger which ones are getting smaller
這是逐年檢視成本相對於公司總收入是變大還是變小的好方法。
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relative to the amount of Total Money that the company is earning then I'll calculate a bunch of margins and ratios
接著我會計算一系列的利潤率和比率，這同樣能描繪出公司的成長概況、
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that again give that profile about how the company is growing how profitable they are and different operational
獲利能力，以及不同的營運、
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solvency liquidity things that tell me the General State of Affairs it's also here where I'll carry out a sort of pure
償債、流動性指標，這些能告訴我整體的營運狀況。在這裡我也會進行
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analysis comparing this company to ones in a similar space based primarily off of these Financial details as well as
純粹的分析，主要基於這些財務細節，將這家公司與同業進行比較。
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the key performance indicators found earlier and I have at times pivoted to a new idea based on this peer comparison
我先前找到的關鍵績效指標，有時我也會根據這種同業比較而轉向新的想法
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because something else looked more attractive once I really got down to the numbers now throughout this whole
因為當我真正深入研究數字時，有時會發現其他東西更具吸引力。在整個
07:50
process and earlier with the overview of the business I do carry out a check for red flags I call it forensic analysis in
過程中，以及早前的業務概覽階段，我都會進行所謂的「紅旗」檢查，我稱之為法務分析，目的是
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understanding the business I want to know what the related party transactions are how management is compensated any
深入了解該業務。我想知道關聯交易是什麼、管理層的薪酬方式、是否有
08:03
conflicts of interest and in terms of finances any accounting Shenanigans unfortunately you can't always rely on
利益衝突，以及在財務方面是否存在任何會計花招。不幸的是，你不能總是依賴
08:11
the figures as they're reported companies do at times fudge the numbers for example it's really common for
報表上的數字。公司有時確實會粉飾報表，例如，管理層
08:16
management to highlight what's called an adjusted figure which is where they take an accounting figure but then make some
很喜歡強調所謂的「調整後數字」（adjusted figure），他們會拿一個會計數字，然後
08:20
changes to it so that's more representative of what they believe the company has done it's not to say that
對其進行一些修改，使其更能代表他們認為公司實際達成的表現。這並不是說
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that's always nefarious but it's really important to look into what the definition of that adjusted figure is
這種做法總是居心不良，但仔細研究調整後數字的定義
08:30
and what they are adding or taking out of this number because the reason it's adjusted is that it doesn't meet
以及他們在這個數字中加減了什麼內容，是非常重要的，因為數字之所以需要調整，通常是因為它不符合
08:36
accounting rules or regulations now in terms of where to find all this information I primarily rely on a data
會計準則或法規。至於要在哪裡找到所有這些資訊，我主要依賴一個由
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terminal that my company pays for which unfortunately just isn't an option for a lot of people they are very expensive
公司付費的數據終端機，不幸的是，這對很多人來說根本不可能，因為它們非常昂貴。
08:49
there are free versions out there with not quite as many features but they're a good starting point for getting again
網路上也有免費版本，雖然功能沒那麼齊全，但作為一個起點，讓你更容易
08:55
the financial statements easily accessible and if you can get something with an Excel add-in Kudos because that
取得財務報表，它們是很好的工具。如果你能找到帶有 Excel 加載項（add-in）的工具，那就太棒了，因為那
09:01
really makes it easier to pull the data that you're looking for into the template you want when it comes to
確實能讓你更輕鬆地將所需的數據提取到你想要的模板中。當涉及
09:07
things like pure analysis or just the specific metrics that you want to look into I've made a crazy amount of use out
同業比較（peer analysis）或僅僅是你想研究的特定指標時，我大量使用了
09:12
of excel templates and programs that pull data terminal information and one of our sort of proprietary things for
Excel 模板和能從數據終端提取資訊的程式。舉例來說，我們有一個專有的
09:19
example is a peer comparison scorecard where based on the industry there are different metrics that are populated to
同業比較記分卡（peer comparison scorecard），它會根據行業不同，填入不同的指標，以便
09:27
compare companies at a very high level and quickly see how they look on different kpis finances all that stuff
在很高層次上進行公司間的比較，並快速查看它們在不同 KPI、財務狀況等方面的表現。
09:34
so I'll include some free Alternatives I can't really vouch for many of them but I have heard of them and if you're
所以我也會列出一些免費的替代方案，我無法為它們背書，但我聽說過它們，如果你是
09:39
relying on a service for data make sure you understand how the data is pulled whether it's aggregated whether they
依賴某項服務來獲取數據時，務必了解數據是如何提取的，無論是經過彙總處理
09:44
make any adjustments to it because it makes it really important when trying to research a company is being able to rely
或是否有任何調整，因為在研究一家公司時，能夠依賴這些數據非常重要
09:50
on the data all right step four it's taking longer than I expected but step four is understanding the strategy
好的，第四步花的時間比我預期的長，但第四步是了解策略
09:56
everything we've done so far is the sort of historical perspective on things at this point I want to know what the
我們目前為止所做的一切都是從歷史角度來看，此時我想知道的是
10:03
opportunity moving forward is this includes going over the Strategic priorities of management as well as
未來的機會是什麼，這包括檢視管理層的戰略優先事項以及
10:08
where they plan to spend money what the capital expenditure is moving forward will be a couple of expenditures I don't
他們計劃如何支出，未來的資本支出將會是多少，有幾項支出我
10:14
think I've talked about but found in the cash flow statement and it covers the money the company is investing in itself
覺得我還沒談到，但在現金流量表中可以找到，它涵蓋了公司對自身的投資
10:19
I also want to know how they'll be financing those plans so I'll consider whether they're taking on more debt or
我還想知道他們將如何為這些計劃籌資，所以我會考慮他們是增加債務
10:24
issuing shares or hybrid instruments which get a little complicated regardless of what the plan is what I'm
還是發行股票或混合工具，這會變得有點複雜，無論計劃是什麼，我
10:31
looking for is to evaluate its feasibility the risks involved and the company's track record for doing what
尋求的是評估其可行性、涉及的風險，以及公司未來履行
10:38
they say they will do moving forward I've seen a lot of companies fail by doing something that they have no
他們所說將會執行之事的過往紀錄，我看過很多公司因為嘗試他們毫無
10:43
experience in doing so it helps when a company if they are a Serial acquirer where they buy a bunch of businesses it
經驗的事情而失敗，所以如果公司是連續收購者，也就是收購一堆企業，這會有幫助
10:51
helps when they have a history of doing that successfully sleep and growing their company as a result actually
如果他們有成功執行的歷史，並因此讓公司成長
10:56
optimizing the companies that they bring in under their umbrella rather than just spending investor money to put growth on
實際上是優化他們納入旗下的公司，而不僅僅是花投資者的錢來讓
11:03
the accounting statements when they aren't actually improving their business one way you can evaluate the track
會計報表上的增長數字好看，而實際上並沒有改善他們的業務。評估過往
11:08
record is by looking at the 5 10 15 year average or some variation thereof of Roi figures which includes return on Capital
紀錄的一種方法是查看 5 年、10 年、15 年的平均值或其變體的 ROI（投資回報率）數據，這包括
11:16
employed return on invested capital and return on Equity among others but those are ones that I look to look at and you
已動用資本回報率、投入資本回報率和股東權益回報率等，但這些是我會關注的指標，而你
11:24
can do a qualitative review of management as well in terms of their experience or tenure with the business
也可以從經驗或在公司的任職時間來對管理層進行定性審查
11:27
one of the things I found really helpful myself as an analyst as a quick tip is building out a checklist of things you
我自己作為分析師發現非常實用的一個快速技巧是，建立一個你
11:35
want to explicitly look for and this is a checklist that you build out as you research companies and you think of
想要明確檢查事項的核對清單，這是一個你在研究公司時建立的清單，你會思考
11:40
things that you want to look for when trying to determine what the mode is whether they're a healthy business all
在試圖判斷一家公司是否健康時，你需要注意的事項
11:45
this stuff I have my own checklist that I've built over time just an example of one thing on there is whether the
關於這一點，我有一份自己長期建立的檢查清單，其中一個例子是，該公司是否
11:51
company adds value for all the stakeholders or are there any stakeholders outside of competition that
為所有利益相關者創造價值？或者是否存在競爭之外的利益相關者
11:56
will lose from operations and that will present a risk to the business's success in terms of where you can find
會因營運而遭受損失，並對企業的成功構成風險？至於在哪裡可以找到
12:02
information about the strategy for the firm you can typically find it in those regulatory filings the 10K will
關於公司策略的資訊，通常可以在那些監管文件中找到。10-K 表格會
12:07
typically have some sort of high-level strategic objective for the business but you can also look at investor
通常包含某種高層次的業務戰略目標，但你也可以查看投資者
12:13
presentations which again will highlight it and transcripts from earnings calls are great because management is often
簡報，這同樣會強調這些目標，而財報電話會議的記錄也很棒，因為管理層經常
12:19
asked questions about what they expect to do moving forward and the challenges they expect you might also find
會被問到他們對未來的預期以及預期面臨的挑戰。你也可能會找到
12:25
transcripts from the different conferences management have gone to which you again might be able to find on
管理層參加不同會議的記錄，同樣可以透過
12:30
the Mr relations page and also through my company I've been able to meet Executives and have calls and attend
公司的投資者關係頁面找到。此外，透過我的公司，我也有機會
12:35
in-person meetings with Executives from different companies in terms of research in the industry again I do have some
與不同公司的高管會面、通話並參加實體會議。至於產業研究，我確實有一些
12:40
paid for services which really help I do really rely on the data terminal as well as some expert inputs and new sources
付費服務，這非常有幫助。我真的很依賴數據終端以及一些專家意見和新聞來源
12:47
but in terms of news that's actually a good thing that most people can access is just researching news about about the
但就新聞而言，其實大多數人都能取得的一個好方法，就是研究關於該
12:53
industry you might be able to find some different research stats about total addressable market and whether things
產業的新聞。你或許能找到一些關於總可尋址市場（TAM）的不同研究數據，以及市場是正在成長還是
12:59
are growing or Contracting so once I understand the business I understand their finances and I understand their
收縮。所以，當我了解這門生意、了解他們的財務狀況，也了解他們的
13:04
strategy from there I'll look at the actual evaluation for the stock it's something I leave later on into the
策略之後，我才會去看股票的實際估值。我會把這一步留到
13:09
process because I don't want my earlier steps to be influenced by whether the stock is expensive or cheap even though
流程的後面，因為我不希望前面的步驟受到股價是昂貴還是便宜的影響，儘管
13:15
that is important their number of methods for doing this at a high level there's relative valuation which is
這點確實很重要。進行估值的方法有很多種，從高層次來看，有相對估值法（Relative Valuation），也就是
13:21
looking at multiples things like the price to earnings multiple EV to a bit of free cash flow yield things like that
觀察倍數，像是本益比（P/E）、企業價值對自由現金流收益率（EV/FCF Yield）等指標
13:26
which you can compare historically to what it's been in the past as well as to peers to see what related companies or
你可以將其與歷史數據比較，也可以與同業比較，看看相關公司或
13:33
companies in the same industry are trading at to see whether you're above more expensive or below that level the
同產業公司目前的交易水準，用來判斷你的投資標的估值是偏高還是偏低
13:39
more detailed approach is an absolute valuation such as a discounted cash flow which I do do from time to time for
更詳細的方法是絕對估值，例如折現現金流法，我偶爾會對公司進行這種分析
13:45
companies where you actually forecast all the line items of different financial statements to forecast their
你需要實際預測不同財務報表的各個科目
13:51
free cash flow into the future year discounted to today's price so that you have an idea of what you should pay
預測未來每年的自由現金流，再折現到今天的價格，這樣你就能知道今天為了未來的表現應該支付多少價格
13:58
today for that future performance I like to change the variables to see how the company's stock price would be in
我喜歡變更變數，看看在不同情境下公司的股價會如何，以及股價的合理水準為何
14:04
different circumstances and what's justified in terms of the Stock's price I'll also consider the more current
我也會考量股票周邊較近期的事件
14:09
events around the stock recent lawsuits current headlines press releases which you can again find on the company's
包括近期的訴訟、當前的頭條新聞、新聞稿，這些同樣可以在公司網站上找到
14:15
website and I'll try to understand what variables in this you know realm are influencing the current stock price as
我會試著了解在這個領域中，哪些變數正在影響當前股價
14:23
it tends to be the more recent stuff that sways prices in the short term it doesn't matter much as a long-term
因為往往是較近期的事件在短期內左右價格
14:29
investor but it does help with the entry point and I do consider some technical aspects of the stock and more
作為長期投資人這並不重要，但對於進場點確實有幫助，我也會考量股票的技術面，以及更
14:34
qualitatively things like whether management is buying or not but really at this point if I like the company and
質性的因素，例如管理層是否有買進，但到了這個階段，如果我喜歡這家公司
14:39
I think the valuation is attractive relative to what it could potentially earn then I'll likely be investing at
且認為其估值相對於潛在獲利具有吸引力，我就很可能會投資
14:45
this step now the problem is that stocks that have gone through all the previous sort of filters and steps at this point
現在的問題是，通過所有先前篩選和步驟的股票
14:51
tend to be the most expensive you know the stocks that have great growth track records great profitability excellent
往往是最昂貴的，那些擁有出色成長紀錄、高獲利能力、優秀管理層
14:57
management all that perfect stuff uh they tend to be more expensive because investors recognize that and
所有完美條件的股票，它們往往比較貴，因為投資人認可這點
15:03
they bid up the stock price accordingly but if the company is not attractively valued it isn't all for naught at this
並因此推升股價，但如果公司估值不具吸引力，這也不是白費工夫
15:09
point I will simply move it to a watch list at which point I will monitor it I've already done the fundamental
我會直接把它移到觀察名單，持續監控，我已經完成基本面研究
15:13
research and we'll have more flexibility to hop into the stock if there's a dip in the price given a current event I can
這樣在價格因當前事件下跌時，能有更多彈性進場
15:21
quickly analyze the current events see if it's material or not and then take advantage of any movements in the stock
我可以快速分析當前事件，判斷其是否具實質影響，然後利用股價的任何波動
15:27
price I will also dollar cost average in companies I really like and generally speaking that's a sound strategy for
對於我真的很喜歡的公司，我也會採取定期定額投資，一般來說這是個穩健的策略
15:33
Diversified investors but I always have an eye on valuation paying too much for a stock does increase your risk of
多元化的投資者，但我始終關注估值。為股票支付過高的價格會增加資本損失的風險，
15:39
capital impairment so I at least want to ensure that the price on paying is within a reasonable range so that's a
所以我至少要確保支付的價格在合理範圍內，這就是
15:45
valuation step and finally step six we've made it this far is to review and finalize notes for future reference at
估值的步驟。最後，第六步，我們終於走到這一步，是審查並敲定筆記以供未來參考。
15:51
this point I'll have an idea of whether I want to buy this stock now or wait but I will also seek answers to fill in the
此時，我會有個概念，是要現在買進這檔股票還是繼續等待，但也會尋求答案來填補
15:56
gaps address those questions that came up throughout the research process I also try to play Devil's Advocate and
空白，解決在研究過程中出現的那些問題。我也嘗試扮演魔鬼的代言人，
16:02
find conflicting reports about uh say the thesis I've sort of developed with this company find opposing opinions to
尋找關於——比如說我針對這家公司建立的投資論點——的衝突報告，找出反對意見，
16:08
try and Sanity check some of my assumptions I also have the benefit of being able to then share it with my team
試圖對我的一些假設進行合理性檢查。我還有個好處，就是可以把它分享給我的團隊，
16:13
who have more experience with researching stocks and myself and I typically write up a formal report but
他們在研究股票方面比我更有經驗，而我通常會寫一份正式報告，但
16:19
we'll still organize my notes regardless just so that they're easier to digest in the future making sure things are bullet
不論如何我們還是會整理我的筆記，這樣未來更容易消化，確保內容用條列式呈現，
16:25
points providing a sort of summary that I can quickly reference in the future so I can get up to speed about my company
提供一種摘要，讓我在未來可以快速參考，以便能快速進入狀況，了解我的公司
16:30
and the thesis I have for it and also points I want to follow up on and the reason why I think this step is really
以及我對它的投資論點，還有我想追蹤的要點。我認為這一步之所以非常
16:36
important is not only because when a Stock's On Your watch list you can quickly review things and get back up to
重要，不僅是因為當一檔股票在你的觀察名單上時，你可以快速回顧並重新掌握
16:41
speed up with the company but when times get tough and you know say something negative develops about the business
這家公司的狀況；當市況變得艱難，你知道，比如說出現關於這家公司的負面消息，
16:48
that a lot of people are spooked is going to challenge their future performance you can go back and see what
讓很多人感到恐慌，質疑其未來表現時，你可以回頭看看這家公司的
16:53
the fundamental business is and what you believe the value lies in what your thesis about the company is and that
基本面業務是什麼，你相信其價值在哪裡，你對這家公司的投資論點是什麼，而這
16:59
will make it easier evaluate whether that has fundamentally changed or if this new development is just noise that
將讓你更容易評估基本面是否真的改變了，或者這個新發展只是干擾噪音，
17:06
you can generally ignore and focus again on the long-term prospects of the business you've invested in so that's my
你可以基本上忽略它，再次專注於你所投資公司的長期前景。以上就是我身為
17:12
investment research process as an analyst we made it thank you for sticking to the
分析師的投資研究過程。我們終於完成了。感謝您堅持到
17:18
end I know I didn't really get into all the nitty-gritty about the specific things I look at but that is really out
最後。我知道我沒有深入探討我關注的具體細節，但這真的是出於
17:24
of respect for my employer they were gracious enough to let me do this video they don't have the perfect Krabby Patty
對我雇主的尊重。他們很慷慨地允許我拍攝這個影片，他們並非完美的海綿寶寶。
17:29
secret formula but uh you know they do have proprietary stuff that uh it's in their interest to keep as I've hopefully
秘密配方，但呃，你知道他們確實有專有的東西，呃，保持這些東西符合他們的利益，正如我希望
17:36
highlighted this is an ongoing process once you've found a stock and especially once you've invested in it to keep
已經強調的，這是一個持續的過程，一旦你找到一檔股票，特別是投資之後，要持續
17:41
researching the company not to get caught up in in the day-to-day happenings but do regularly review it
研究這家公司，不要陷入日常的瑣事，但要定期審查它
17:47
and make sure you're not missing anything so thanks again for joining me and before I sign off I do want to give
並確保你沒有錯過任何東西，所以再次感謝你的加入，在結束之前，我想
17:52
a quick thank you to our sponsor morningbrew as I mentioned keeping up to date on the news is an important part of
快速感謝我們的贊助商 Morning Brew，正如我提到的，掌握最新消息是研究過程
17:56
the research process I've always had to keep an eye on a bunch of outlets to try and get an idea of the important
的重要部分，我一直必須關注一堆媒體，試圖了解當天的
18:01
headlines for the day but if you want a free resource for keeping a pulse on the general markets and what's happening
重要頭條新聞，但如果你想要一個免費的資源來掌握整體市場動態以及發生了什麼事
18:07
politically what's happening in the business world they're a great resource morning Brew sends a business finance
政治上發生了什麼事，商業世界發生了什麼事，他們是一個很棒的資源。Morning Brew 每天都會將商業、財經
18:12
and Technology newsletter directly to your inbox every day of the week and they'll cover headlines that you'll
和科技通訊直接發送到你的收件匣，他們會涵蓋你在研究股票時
18:16
certainly come across in researching stocks for example they recently went over how the US saw a 21.7 jump in home
肯定會遇到的頭條新聞，例如，他們最近報導了美國在 5 月的住宅建築開工量如何
18:23
building project starts in May which is the highest level it's been in a year it's still below 2008 levels but should
躍升 21.7%，達到一年來的最高水平，雖然仍低於 2008 年的水平，但應該
18:29
help with the country's 3.8 million home shortage but the best part of the newsletter outside of the price
有助於解決全國 380 萬戶的住宅短缺問題，但這份通訊除了價格
18:35
free is that it's entertaining to read genuinely it's one of the first things I read every day because the writing is
免費之外，最棒的部分是它讀起來真的很有趣，老實說，這是我每天閱讀的首要項目之一，因為它的文筆
18:41
witty really easy to read compared to what you would typically see in the space it's entertaining makes for an
機智，非常容易閱讀，與你在同領域通常看到的內容相比，它很有趣，讓你
18:46
easy start to the day so if you want to join the other four million professionals already reading morning
輕鬆開始新的一天，所以如果你想加入其他四百萬位已經閱讀 Morning
18:49
Brew you can click the link in the description below to sign up it takes us in 10 seconds to start getting their
Brew 的專業人士行列，你可以點擊下方描述中的連結進行註冊，只需 10 秒鐘就能開始將他們
18:54
free quality newsletter to your inbox directly so thank you morning brew and thank you guys for joining me today I
免費的優質通訊直接發送到你的收件匣，所以感謝 Morning Brew，也感謝大家今天加入我的行列，我
18:59
hope you found this video helpful if you did please make sure to like subscribe all that good stuff it does help the
希望你覺得這部影片有幫助，如果有的話，請務必按讚、訂閱，做所有這些好事，這確實對這個
19:03
challenge tremendously and let me know your thoughts on the research process both positive and negative genuinely
頻道有極大的幫助，並讓我知道你對研究過程的看法，無論是正面還是負面，真心
19:08
because I am always trying to improve it this is not the NLB processes so I'm always happy to hear feedback thanks
因為我一直在努力改進它，這不是唯一的流程，所以我總是樂於聽到回饋，謝謝。
19:15
again for joining see in the next one
再次感謝您的收看，我們下一支影片見。
