I guess that many of you dream about retiring as full-time private investors, to have enough capital to live a comfortable and fulfilling life by just deploying your money into various stocks of your own choosing. Following the 4% rule, perhaps $1 million would be enough
to retire from the daily grind. For those of you not familiar with the 4% rule, here's a quick story that will serve as an introduction.
退出日常的辛勞工作。對於那些不熟悉4%規則的人，這裡有一個快速的故事，可以作為介紹。
00:25
This is Tom. Tom is a 43-year-old dad and husband. Tom has invested in the stock market for 20 years while working full-time as an engineer. Tom's yearly living expenses amounts to $37,000. Tom has saved and invested his money continuously so that he is now the proud
Knowing this, on his 44th birthday, Tom retires from his engineering 9-5. He will now spend more time doing what truly makes him happy, investing in the stock market, going on hikes, playing tennis and especially spending more time with his family and friends and being
This video is based on 12 successful private investors that, just like Tom, retired from employment somewhere mid-life to spend more time on the things that really matters to them while also continuing to accumulate their wealth through stock market investing.
What I find especially inspiring about these individuals is that they don't seem like super humans and if they made it, so can we.
要點一，不要挖得太深。
01:55
This is a top 5 takeaway summary of free capital, how 12 private investors made millions in the stock market by Guy Thomas. And this is the Swedish investor, bringing you the best tips and tools for reaching financial freedom through stock market investing.
Let's return to Tom from the intro. Being somewhat experienced, Tom has developed a knack for identifying the key metrics of certain investments. Let's say Tom is intrigued by a company that produces and sells plant-based beef directly to restaurants. Let's call
When analyzing the beef, Tom doesn't waste much time looking behind every little rock.
在分析這家公司時，湯姆不會浪費太多時間在每個小細節上。
02:42
Once he has determined that the company has an attractive valuation, compared to last year's earnings and cash flow, he buys the shares and then focuses on keeping tab on the key drivers of the beef. Those that will make it or break it for the company in the long run. In this case, he decides that the pricing power of the beef will tell him a
good deal about the competitiveness of the product. The average price is something he finds and can follow in the annual reports. Secondly, his investment thesis expects that the beef will be able to keep up its historically high growth of earnings. In addition to the
pricing, he will therefore monitor how many restaurants that the company is able to add to its customer base, in connection with its highest expense, which happens to be its cost of sales and advertising. If it is getting costlier to grow, Tom wants to be the first
Even Warren Buffett applies this strategy. In the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, he mentioned that figuring out how Coke will do in the future is essentially figuring out two variables, number of cases sold and earnings per case. Buffett said that
the same holds true for GEICO. It is just insurance policies in force and underwriting experience per policy.
同樣的道理也適用於 GEICO。它只是保單數量和每張保單的承保經驗。
04:03
A common denominator among the investors in the book free capital is that they often skip details to focus on the few trends and figures that they believe are the ones that really matter. If you try to keep tab of everything that is going on, chances are that you start
giving equal weight to the different parameters, even though only a few of them are crucial.
對不同的參數給予同等的權重，即使只有少數參數是至關重要的。
04:26
Also, additional knowledge always comes with an opportunity cost, so one must continuously question if it is worth to keep digging.
此外，額外的知識總是伴隨著機會成本，因此人們必須不斷質疑是否值得繼續深入挖掘。
04:37
The devil is rarely in the details.
魔鬼很少在細節中。
04:42
Takeaway number two, enjoy the hardship.
第二個要點，享受艱難。
04:47
It is very common that even investors who are now experienced and wealthy had some major setbacks early on in their investing careers, which is also true for the investors in this book.
Investing is hard. After all, it is a game with extraordinary rewards if you become good at it, so it makes sense that there is some competition.
投資是困難的。畢竟，如果你擅長這個遊戲，它會帶來非凡的回報，因此有競爭是合理的。
05:09
Our world is complex, and trying to foresee how companies will do in the future and then deciding if their shares are priced on the low end or high end based on that, well, let's just say that there are easier job descriptions out there. If you haven't realized how difficult
this can be, you might be in the early stages of the Dunning-Kruger curve.
你可能還處在鄧寧-克魯格曲線的早期階段。
05:30
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias which makes you overestimate your ability initially when you take up a new interest. Only after facing some hardship, you start to realize your inability. The Dunning-Kruger effect is common among stock market investors,
as you can be lucky for a while and make a lot of money, even with an investment strategy that is filled with as many holes as a Swiss cheese.
因為你可能會在一段時間內很幸運，賺很多錢，即使你的投資策略充滿了像瑞士乾酪一樣多的漏洞。
05:56
You know what they say, don't confuse brains with a bull market.
你聽過那句話嗎，別把牛市當成自己的聰明。
06:01
And you know what Charlie Munger says? It's not supposed to be easy, anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The investor should focus on learning as much as possible early on, not chasing or expecting great returns. Before you are at least a half decent investor,
you cannot achieve a good risk-adjusted return, which is what it is all about.
你無法獲得良好的風險調整後回報，而這才是投資的真諦。
06:26
This is true simply because at the early stages of your Dunning-Kruger journey, you won't even be able to perceive the risk part due to a lack of experience and knowledge.
這是真的，因為在鄧寧-克魯格旅程的早期階段，由於缺乏經驗和知識，你甚至無法感知風險部分。
06:37
However, this is a period which should be embraced and welcomed.
然而，這是一個應該被擁抱和歡迎的時期。
06:42
To experience some major mistakes is good for the learning process, and it is much nicer to make the mistakes early on when your portfolio most likely still is quite small than doing them a few years later when mistakes have become much, much more expensive.
Are you having a hard time in the market or recently had? Remember that it is normal and expected. This hardship is what will make you try even more. And if it wasn't hard, well, everyone could do it and then the opportunity would be gone.
Takeaway number three, reach for freedom. The first step to become a wealthy investor is to understand that consumption shouldn't be your main goal. Freedom should. One of the major things that will postpone your plan to live off your portfolio is to interrupt
the compounding by making large withdrawals for consumption before you have reached your goal. Manger again. The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.
透過在達到目標前大量提款消費來破壞複利效應。再說一次，複利的第一條規則是絕不要不必要地中斷它。
07:52
Even though consumption can grant some instant gratification and satisfy some vanity trait, remember that it will delay your ultimate goal to retire from your portfolio. When you see someone who drives around in their Lamborghini, realize that you're also witnessing someone
who is a Lamborghini poorer. So is it worth it? Perhaps counterintuitively, focusing on freedom initially will increase your chances of being able to spend more on consumption down the road anyways. So yes, it's a way of having your cake and eating it too. If you have the
Takeaway number four, focus matters. People who built their fortunes from stock market investments often run fairly concentrated portfolios. This is also true for the individuals in this book. The medium person had less than 10 companies in his or her portfolio. What do you think that is?
Warren Buffett has his own theory. If you have a harem of 40 women, you never get to know any of them very well. Constructing an investment portfolio really is a game of piling stocks which are likely to overperform the general market. Once you've added your 10 best ideas to that portfolio,
what you think the effect will be of adding an additional 30? That's right, if your investment strategy really has an edge, this will reduce your expected returns.
你認為再增加30個會有什麼效果？沒錯，如果你的投資策略真的有優勢，這將降低你的預期回報。
09:26
Critics of the concentrated portfolio approach will often argue that you put yourself in too much risk if you only invest in just a few companies. That your portfolio will fluctuate too much.
Even though I wouldn't agree that volatility is a measure of risk, even the volatility of a stock portfolio will be greatly reduced once you've added like 7 different companies to it, so this argument is just totally invalid. A word of caution though. Even if an expert investor
can concentrate even more than that, Warren Buffett has added 40% of his capital in a single stock on a few separate occasions. A more concentrated portfolio can be harmful for the inexperienced investor. It is oftentimes more psychologically stressful to handle. The beginner should invest
in a way that ensures that he stays in the game rather than shooting for the moon.
一種確保他們能夠留在遊戲中的方式進行投資，而不是追求不可能的目標。
10:22
Takeaway number 5. What makes you tick? Who are you and what do you know?
第五個要點。什麼讓你動力十足？你是誰，你知道什麼？
10:30
Depending on, for example, your skills, your personality, your profession, and your interest, you should construct an investing strategy that suits you. There are tons of strategies and methods to make money in the stock market. In order to maximize portfolio returns and minimize sleepless
If you have an engineering background like me, for example, perhaps more of a quantitative approach would suit you best. But if you, on the other hand, have a background from art or service jobs, perhaps a qualitative approach with a tilt towards the storytelling surrounding a company should be the focus in your process. Kind of following the mantra of Peter Lynch.
如果你喜歡這家店，你很可能會喜歡這支股票。
11:19
If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock.
If you are an extroverted person, attending a lot of annual shareholder meetings can potentially create a lot of value for you and can contribute with a lot of insights. But on the other hand, if you're an introvert, that might just be discouraging and stressful.
Or maybe work 80-hour weeks at a prestigious job. Then skip attempts at stockpeaking altogether for now and set up a fully automated index investing plan. No matter what, also spend some time thinking about what interests you. Don't develop a strategy which you know from the get-go relies upon methods
that force you to death, because then you will never have the endurance to stick to it for the long run. To find out what suits you, you'll probably have to explore a few different paths.
不是最適合你的。但這是一個學習過程。透過嘗試和錯誤，你最終會找到最適合你的方法。
12:12
Even though I certainly do not consider myself a trader these days, at one point in time, I may have called myself an IPO arbitrager. Or no, I take that back, an IPO lost generator would have been more accurate. Anyways, chances are high that the method you start out with
will not be the one that builds your future wealth.
不會是那個為你建立未來財富的工具。
12:36
All metrics are not created equal. We're all beginners at some point. Enjoy the learning process.
並非所有指標都是同等重要的。我們都曾是初學者。享受學習的過程。
12:45
Don't sacrifice long-term happiness for short-term vanity. Be picky with your investments.
不要為了短期的虛榮而犧牲長期的幸福。對你的投資要挑剔。
12:52
Testing leads to failure and failure leads to progress.
測試會導致失敗，而失敗會帶來進步。
12:56
Develop an investment strategy that suits you.
發展一套適合你的投資策略。
13:00
Check out this video next if you want to see how Warren Buffett made his first 1 million dollars in the stock market. A huge thanks to my friend Richard Dykes who made this video possible.
如果你想看看沃倫·巴菲特如何在股市中賺到他的第一個一百萬美元，請接著觀看這個影片。感謝我的朋友 Richard Dykes 讓這個影片成為可能。
13:11
Cheers guys!
乾杯，各位！
FREE CAPITAL: HOW 12 PRIVATE INVESTORS MADE MILLIONS IN THE STOCK MARKET
