The fifth most important takeaway from Charlie Munger's Poor Charlie's Almanac is to start with the don'ts.
查理·芒格《窮查理年鑑》中第五重要的啟示是：從「不做什麼」開始。
00:09
When amateurs play tennis, the winner usually doesn't win by shooting the fastest or the most skilled shots.
當業餘選手打網球時，贏家通常不是靠最快或最技巧的擊球獲勝。
00:16
Instead, when amateurs play tennis, it's usually the person who shoots the fewest shots in the net and misses the court the least amount of times that wins.
相反，業餘選手打網球時，通常是將球打入網內次數最少、出界次數最少的人獲勝。
00:26
Simply put, you win by playing it safe.
簡而言之，你靠穩健的打法獲勝。
00:31
The loser is usually the person who tries to hit hard and too advanced shots.
輸家通常是試圖用力擊球和使用過於高級球技的人。
00:38
According to Charlie, this also holds for life in general, and more importantly for investing.
查理認為，這一原則也適用於生活，更重要的是適用於投資。
00:45
Trying to be consistently not stupid and staying within your circle of competence is better than trying to be very intelligent.
試圖保持不犯錯並待在自己的能力範圍內，比試圖變得非常聰明更重要。
00:52
If you want to be a successful investor, which I bet is the reason why you watch this video, you will have to pick markets, industries, and companies where you can create and sustain an informational edge so that you know the ins and outs better than the rest of the investing collective.
One important part in this process is to limit yourself so that you know what your circle of competence is.
這個過程中一個重要的部分是限制自己，清楚知道自己的能力範圍。
01:18
In the process of finding where you can create yourself this edge, you should start in the other end by choosing which markets and industries to avoid.
在尋找能夠創造優勢的領域時，你應該從另一端開始，選擇要避免的市場和行業。
01:28
For example, I have tried to avoid companies based outside of Sweden, companies that don't yet make a profit, banks, and insurance companies to mention a few.
例如，我一直試圖避免投資瑞典境外的公司、尚未盈利的公司、銀行和保險公司等。
01:39
It all comes down to where you can create yourself an edge so that you can bet heavily when opportunity shows its face.
這一切都歸結於你能否在哪裡創造優勢，以便在機會出現時大舉投資。
01:46
By avoiding areas that are not within your circle of competence, you can better understand and control your risk.
通過避免不在你能力範圍內的領域，你可以更好地理解和控制風險。
01:53
Charlie Munger and his partnering crime were in Buffett stayed out of technology companies for a very long time.
查理·芒格和他的搭檔巴菲特長期遠離科技公司。
02:01
They've missed out on a lot of opportunities because of this, but more importantly, they avoided making a lot of mistakes.
因為這樣，他們錯過了很多機會，但更重要的是，他們避免了犯很多錯誤。
02:09
For example, they sailed quite smoothly through the dot-com bubble.
例如，他們在網際網路泡沫期間相對平穩地度過。
02:13
This is a really important part of any investing process, and I want to ask you this: which companies do you avoid today?
這是任何投資過程中非常重要的一部分，我想問你：你今天避免哪些公司？
02:22
Starting with the don'ts is one of Charlie Munger's favorite mental models, and he has been quoted saying, “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so that I’ll never go there.” And again, this model can be used when playing tennis or chess, when finding a suitable spouse, or choosing an education or job.
By simply removing the worst alternatives and thus playing in a way so that you don't lose, you will be a big winner in investing and in life in general.
通過簡單地排除最差的選擇，從而以不輸的方式行事，你將在投資和生活中成為大贏家。
02:55
Number 4. Lola Palooza.
第四點。Lola Palooza。
02:57
Charlie Munger is known to have coined the term Lola Palooza effect.
查理·芒格以創造「Lola Palooza效應」一詞而聞名。
03:03
With this, he means an outcome that is extraordinary, where 1 plus 1 equals to 3.
他指的是一種非凡的結果，即1加1等於3。
03:10
A Lola Palooza effect is created when an outcome is much bigger than the sum of its parts.
當結果遠大於各部分的總和時，就會產生Lola Palooza效應。
03:17
One positive effect enhances the power of the next one, and on and on and on.
一個正面效應增強了下一個效應的力量，如此循環不斷。
03:23
You want to invest with their suposability for such self-reinforcing loops.
你應該投資於那些具有這種自我強化循環潛力的公司。
03:28
For example, one of the greatest brands in history was created through a Lola Palooza effect.
例如，歷史上最偉大的品牌之一就是通過Lola Palooza效應創造的。
03:33
By combining the factors of a great product, two powerful stimulants, clever marketing, ease of availability, and social proofing.
通過結合優質產品、兩種強效刺激物、巧妙的營銷、易於獲得性以及社會證明等因素。
03:45
Which brand do you think it is?
你認為這是哪個品牌？
03:49
It's Coca-Cola, of course.
當然是可口可樂。
03:52
Not only has Coca-Cola completely dominated the market of soft drinks, it's also the most widely distributed physical product in the entire world.
可口可樂不僅完全主導了軟性飲料市場，也是全世界分佈最廣泛的實體產品。
04:01
But how can this be?
但這是如何做到的呢？
04:03
It's just a regular soft drink.
它只是一種普通的軟性飲料。
04:06
The result is an effect of a great product with both a desirable taste and stimulus from sugar and caffeine, something it was a first move on.
其成功源於一款優質產品，兼具令人愉悅的口味和來自糖與咖啡因的刺激，而這正是它的先發優勢。
04:17
This was combined with an excellent marketing strategy that has triggered the psychological systems inherent in humans.
這與一流的營銷策略相結合，觸發了人類固有的心理系統。
04:25
Charlie Munger puts it this way.
查理·芒格這樣描述：
04:26
“The brain of man yearns for the type of beverage held by the pretty woman he can't have.” Then there's the ease of availability in stores and the social proof attached to the brand.
All these systems at work, pulling in the same direction, have created the Lola Palooza effect for Coca-Cola and an incredible moat to keep competitors from nagging on Coca-Cola's market share.
However, Charlie points out that identifying where and when these Lola Palooza effects can happen is difficult, because it requires a multidisciplinary approach.
You will need not only to have a good understanding of economics, business, and the industry you are interested in, you will also need a good understanding of basics in subjects like psychology, statistics, and business law.
This is the secret source that can help you find stocks that will skyrocket.
這就是能幫助你找到股價將飆升的股票的秘密武器。
05:23
But more on this in takeaway number two.
但關於這點，我們會在第二點重點中進一步討論。
05:28
Number three, learn from other people's mistakes.
第三點，從別人的錯誤中學習。
05:33
In Poor Charlie's Almanac, Charlie Munger presents a recipe for misery.
在《窮查理年鑑》中，查理·芒格提出了一個製造痛苦的秘方。
05:38
If you are into that, one of the ingredients for great misery is to learn everything you possibly can from your own mistakes.
如果你對此感興趣，其中一個製造巨大痛苦的成分就是盡可能從自己的錯誤中學習。
05:47
Instead of learning from other people's experiences, both living and dead people.
而不是從其他人的經驗中學習，包括活著的人和已故的人。
05:52
You can see the results of not learning from other people's mistakes by simply looking around you.
你只需環顧四周，就能看到不從別人的錯誤中學習的後果。
05:58
There's a constant stream of drunk driving deaths, for example.
例如，酒駕致死的事件層出不窮。
06:03
A little bit less dramatic, but still a fatal mistake for an investor is the tendency for people and companies to fall into bankruptcy due to financial leverage.
雖然不那麼戲劇化，但對投資者來說，一個致命的錯誤是個人和公司因財務槓桿而破產的傾向。
06:12
By ignoring the lessons that other people already have learnt, you will for sure become miserable and you are guaranteed of reaching a second-rate achievement.
如果你忽略別人已經學到的教訓，你肯定會變得痛苦，並且註定只能取得二流的成就。
06:23
If you instead start with learning from others, preferably from the masters within the field you wish to accelerate in, you will find yourself making headway much faster than walking on every mine by yourself.
Yes, it might be less accelerating, diversifying into ten different stocks than going all in on a microcap company, but you will most likely end up with a much more solid result.
And look around you. What is it that slows people down?
並且環顧四周。是什麼在拖慢人們的腳步？
07:02
And when within a certain field, climb the shoulders of giants.
在某個特定領域中，要站在巨人的肩膀上。
07:08
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett climbed the shoulders of Benjamin Graham and Philip Fisher, and then proceeded from there.
查理·芒格和沃倫·巴菲特站在本傑明·格雷厄姆和菲利普·費雪的肩膀上，然後從那裡繼續前進。
07:15
And look where it got them.
看看他們取得了什麼成就。
07:17
Their company, Berkshire Hathaway, is now the sixth most valuable stock market company in the entire world.
他們的公司，伯克希爾·哈撒韋，現在是全球第六大最有價值的上市公司。
07:26
“If I have seen a little further than other men, it’s because I stood on the shoulders of giants.” Sir Isaac Newton.
「如果我比其他人看得更遠，那是因為我站在巨人的肩膀上。」——艾薩克·牛頓爵士。
07:37
2. Become a Swiss Army Knife.
2. 成為一把瑞士軍刀。
07:43
Investing and anticipating a company's future cash flow is, in a way, just the form of problem solving, one that requires a multi-disciplinary approach.
投資和預測公司未來的現金流，在某種程度上，就是一種需要多學科方法的問題解決形式。
07:55
Companies are oftentimes like complicated organisms.
公司往往像複雜的有機體。
07:59
On the internal side, you have products, people, processes, incentives, culture, leaders, and so forth.
在內部，你有產品、人員、流程、激勵措施、文化、領導者等等。
08:09
On the external side, you have an ecosystem with laws and regulations, competitors, suppliers, buyers, and macro trends and so forth.
在外部，你有一個生態系統，包括法律法規、競爭對手、供應商、買家以及宏觀趨勢等等。
08:20
All this boils down to a rather complex situation, with a lot of variables that will affect the company's future cash flow.
所有這些都歸結為一個相當複雜的情況，有許多變量會影響公司未來的現金流。
08:27
In order to understand this puzzle, you will need to equip your mind with a mental version of a Swiss Army Knife.
為了理解這個謎題，你需要在心中裝備一個瑞士軍刀的心智版本。
08:35
Have you heard about the man with a hammer syndrome?
你聽說過「手持錘子綜合症」嗎？
08:39
In essence, for a person that only has a hammer in his toolbox, he will deal with every problem like it was a nail, and hammer away on it.
本質上，一個工具箱裡只有錘子的人，會把每個問題都當作釘子來處理，然後用錘子敲打。
08:50
He will do this even though the problem might actually be a screw, and, well, requiring a screwdriver.
即使這個問題實際上是一個螺絲釘，需要用螺絲刀來解決，他也會這麼做。
08:58
In investing, you don't want to be the man with a hammer.
在投資中，你不想成為那個手持錘子的人。
09:03
To become a successful investor, you will need a toolbox that includes many different tools that are readily available at your disposal.
要成為一名成功的投資者，你需要一個工具箱，裡面有許多不同的工具，隨時可供你使用。
09:11
Yes, all investing requires a sound understanding of finance, like understanding what type of investments that will perform well in periods of high inflation, which you can learn about in my summary of the University of Berkshire Hathaway.
But, you will also need to understand history, psychology, politics, mathematics, engineering, biology, business law, statistics, and so on.
但是，你還需要了解歷史、心理學、政治學、數學、工程學、生物學、商業法、統計學等等。
09:37
Not understanding at least the basics of these different fields will force you to undertake hidden risks, unknown unknowns, which disables your potential as an investor.
不了解這些不同領域的基礎知識，會迫使你承擔隱藏的風險，即未知的未知數，這會限制你作為投資者的潛力。
09:48
A great way to excel in these major fields is to read a lot.
要在這些主要領域中出類拔萃，大量閱讀是一個很好的方法。
09:55
Charlie Munger puts it this way.
查理·芒格這樣說。
09:57
“In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time.” Just go to Amazon, enter the different categories, find the best books in a variety of subjects, and then turn the reading lamp on.
And remember to use my Amazon link in the description for all of your purchases.
記得在描述中使用我的亞馬遜鏈接進行所有購買。
10:15
Charlie Munger concludes.
查理·芒格總結道。
10:17
“Just as multiple factors shape almost every system, multiple models from a variety of disciplines, applied with fluency, are needed to understand that system.” Alright, time for number one.
Charlie Munger has a very structured mind, and so is his method when it comes to investing.
查理·芒格擁有非常結構化的思維，他在投資時的方法也是如此。
10:45
He says that no wise pilot, no matter how great his talent and experience, fails to use his checklist.
他說，無論飛行員的才華和經驗多麼豐富，沒有一個明智的飛行員會不使用他的檢查清單。
10:53
And this goes for investing as well.
這同樣適用於投資。
10:56
So, here it is.
所以，這就是它。
10:57
Charlie Munger's checklist for investing.
查理·芒格的投資檢查清單。
11:00
Risk.
風險。
11:02
All investments should begin by measuring risk.
所有投資都應從衡量風險開始。
11:05
Use a margin of safety.
使用安全邊際。
11:09
More risk requires additional compensation.
更高的風險需要額外的補償。
11:13
Avoid big mistakes and permanent capital loss.
避免重大錯誤和永久性資本損失。
11:17
Independence.
獨立性。
11:19
Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked.
只有在童話故事中，皇帝才會被告知他們是赤身裸體的。
11:23
Think for yourself.
獨立思考。
11:25
You cannot stay objective and rational while listening to walls with hogwash.
在聽信胡言亂語的同時，你無法保持客觀和理性。
11:30
That people are agreeing with you doesn't make your analysis correct.
人們贊同你並不意味著你的分析是正確的。
11:35
Nor does people disagreeing with you make it wrong.
人們反對你也不意味著你的分析是錯誤的。
11:39
Mimicking the herd will give you the results of the herd.
模仿群體只會讓你得到群體的結果。
11:44
Intellectual humility.
知識上的謙遜。
11:46
Acknowledging what you don't know is where you should begin.
承認你不知道的東西是你應該開始的地方。
11:50
Stay within your circle of competence.
保持在你的能力範圍內。
11:54
Identify and think through evidence that goes against your own view.
找出並思考與自身觀點相左的證據。
11:59
Above all, never fool yourself.
最重要的是，永遠不要自欺欺人。
12:03
And remember that no one is as good at it as you are.
記住，沒有人比你更擅長這件事。
12:08
Allocation.
資源分配。
12:09
Proper allocation of capital is an investor's number one job.
適當分配資本是投資者的首要任務。
12:14
Remember that there's always an opportunity cost.
記住，總是存在機會成本。
12:18
Good ideas are rare.
好的點子很罕見。
12:20
When the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.
當勝算對你非常有利時，重注下注。
12:24
Don't fall in love with an investment.
不要愛上一項投資。
12:28
Stay skeptical.
保持懷疑態度。
12:30
Patience.
耐心。
12:32
Resist the human bias to act.
抵制人類行動的偏見。
12:35
Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.
復利是世界第八大奇蹟。
12:38
Never interrupt it unnecessarily.
切勿不必要地中斷它。
12:42
The process is where you live, so remember to enjoy it along with the results.
過程是你生活的地方，所以記得享受過程和結果。
12:47
Guard against the effects of hubris and boredom.
防範自大和無聊的影響。
12:52
Decisiveness.
決斷力。
12:53
When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction.
當適當的情況出現時，果斷行動並充滿信心。
12:59
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
當別人貪婪時要害怕，當別人害怕時要貪婪。
13:04
Opportunity doesn't come often, so seize it when it does.
機會不常來，所以當它來時要把握。
13:10
Stay prepared.
隨時做好準備。
13:12
Opportunities can only be identified by those who are.
只有準備好的人才能識別機會。
13:18
Would you be interested in a 15-minute MBA?
你是否有興趣了解15分鐘的MBA課程？
13:21
Head over to my video of the University of Berkshire Hathaway and learn how Charlie Munger, together with Warren Buffett, created one of the world's most successful companies by applying a handful of investing strategies.
