00:02
Hello everyone and welcome to global consilian research.
大家好，歡迎來到 Global Consilian Research。
00:06
This is an entire new course on fundamental analysis from beginning.
這是一門從零開始的基礎分析全新課程。
00:09
This course will teach you every single thing that you need to know about fundamental analysis whether you
這門課程將教你關於基礎分析所需了解的一切知識，無論你
00:13
are a beginner or maybe you are a CFA charter holder.
是初學者，還是已經持有 CFA 證書。
00:16
And you do not have to waste your time reading all of these books.
你不需要浪費時間去閱讀所有這些書籍。
00:19
Just follow this course from start to finish and do the homework as I give you.
只要從頭到尾跟隨這門課程，並完成我給你的作業即可。
00:24
So without wasting any time, let's begin.
那麼，閒話少說，我們開始吧。
00:28
Hello everyone and welcome to global consulting research.
大家好，歡迎來到 Global Consulting Research。
00:32
This is a brand new course on fundamental analysis.
這是一門關於基礎分析的全新課程。
00:35
Right. So before we begin this session, let me tell you one thing.
好的。在開始本次課程之前，讓我先說明一件事。
00:38
This entire session is going to be on only in English.
整個課程將全程以英語進行。
00:41
So if you are one of those audience which do not understand English uh really well
所以，如果你是那些英語聽力不是很好的觀眾，
00:45
then I would suggest you please watch the Hindi course.
那我建議你去看印地語課程。
00:48
Hindi course is for you.
印地語課程是為你準備的。
00:49
This course is solely for my English listening audience.
這門課程完全是為英語聽眾設計的。
00:54
Right? If you are from US or any other country or any other part of the world, please
對吧？如果你來自美國、世界其他國家或任何其他地區，請
00:57
watch this entire session.
觀看這整個課程。
01:00
This entire session will be completely completely in English.
整個課程將完全、完全使用英語。
01:02
So session number one, we are going to see an overview of the entire course, overview of the entire playlist
那麼在第一堂課，我們將概覽整個課程，概覽本次課程的
01:07
of this session.
所有播放清單。
01:08
What we are going to learn, why we are going to learn it.
我們將學習什麼，以及為何要學習。
01:10
I'll explain it to you in simple English language and there will be no jargon used over here.
我會用簡單的英語向你解釋，這裡不會使用任何專業術語。
01:15
Right? So first of all, let's see what exactly is fundamental analysis.
對吧？那麼首先，讓我們看看什麼是基本面分析。
01:19
Now if you have seen my previous reports on previous videos on equity research valuation you will
如果你看過我之前關於股票研究估值的影片報告，
01:24
understand that I always take the use of case studies right.
你就會明白我總是會使用案例研究，對吧？
01:28
So we are going to be looking at several case studies in fundamental analysis course so that you
所以我們將在基本面分析課程中探討幾個案例研究，
01:32
can have a greater and practical understanding of the uh process involved.
讓你對涉及的過程有更深入且實用的理解。
01:37
So first of all let's understand what exactly is fundamental analysis and what is the essence of the
首先，讓我們了解基本面分析究竟是什麼，以及其本質是什麼。
01:42
thing. Now sub now first of all you need to do is you need to think like an investor.
現在，首先你需要像投資者一樣思考。
01:47
Now if you are a day trader, if you are a FNO trader or if you are a momentum trader or anything related to
如果你是當日交易者、選擇權交易者、動量交易者，或是任何與
01:52
trading, buying and selling quickly getting in and getting out of the market, this session is not for you
快速買賣、進出市場相關的交易者，這場講座不適合你。
01:58
guys. If you are someone who is doing let's say dollar cost averaging, right?
如果你是那種進行例如「平均成本法」的人，對吧？
02:02
Dollar cost averaging, we also call it SIP in India, right?
平均成本法，在印度我們也稱之為 SIP（定期定額），對吧？
02:06
So you need to be an investor and you need to think like an investor to be able to grasp more and
所以你需要成為一名投資者，並且像投資者一樣思考，才能掌握
02:11
more concept of this entire course and to extract more and more value from this entire session.
這門課程的更多概念，並從整場講座中獲取更多價值。
02:16
Right? So here are the points we will be covering in this entire session and let me tell you one
對吧？以下是我們將在整場講座中涵蓋的要點，告訴你一件事，
02:20
thing this session will not be so long.
這場講座不會太長。
02:22
This entire playlist will be only of consist consist of around 15 videos right.
整個播放列表大約只有 15 支影片，對吧？
02:27
So first of all what we are going to learn is what is it?
所以首先，我們要學的是它是什麼？
02:31
What exactly is fundamental analysis?
基本面分析到底是什麼？
02:33
Why we do it?
我們為什麼要這樣做？
02:34
How to do it right?
如何正確地做？
02:35
Why we do the fundamental analysis and how to make sure that we keep the main agenda right
我們為什麼要做基本面分析，以及如何確保我們掌握正確的主要目標
02:41
the main agenda of any fundamental analysis to make the economic decision and not the other way around right so we
任何基本面分析的主要目標是為了做出經濟決策，而不是本末倒置，對吧？所以我們
02:49
will learn what exactly is fundamental analysis how to conduct it second thing we will compare two main philosophies or
將學習基本面分析的確切定義以及如何執行；第二件事我們將比較市場上兩種主要的哲學或
02:55
two main methods to make money in the market one is your technical analysis and the second one is your fundamental
兩種主要的賺錢方法：一種是技術分析，第二種是基本面
03:00
analysis we will do a good differentiation between technical aspects of investing and the fundamental
分析；我們將對投資的技術層面和基本面
03:07
analysis aspect of investing and this course will be solely focused on fundamental yes I will give you some
分析層面進行很好的區分，而這門課程將完全專注於基本面。是的，我會給你們一些
03:13
good introduction to technical analysis why we do it and whether or not it is applicable to today's market or not and
關於技術分析的良好介紹，說明我們為什麼要做它，以及它是否適用於今天的市場，還有
03:18
what are the pros and cons of doing the fundamental analysis as well right third point how to this is one of the biggest
進行基本面分析的優缺點，對吧？第三點，如何——這是這門課中你能找到的最大的
03:25
problem solving material you will find in this entire course how to conduct fundamental analysis how to conduct
問題解決材料之一——如何進行基本面分析，如何進行
03:30
ratio analysis and let me tell you guys one more thing we We will not be doing any theoretical PP PT stuff and we will
比率分析；讓我再告訴各位一件事，我們將不做任何理論性的 PP PT 東西，我們也
03:37
not be doing any boring random jarens and random definition.
不會做任何無聊的隨機術語和隨機定義。
03:42
We will see real companies in the real markets and we will see some real case studies in the
我們將在真實市場中觀察真實的公司，並在
03:46
real markets.
真實市場中看到一些真實的案例研究。
03:48
Fourth fundamental analysis report.
第四，基本面分析報告。
03:50
By the time you are finished with this entire course, you will be able to make fundamental
當你完成這整門課程時，你將能夠製作任何
03:53
analysis report of any company in this world.
世界上任何公司的基本面分析報告。
03:56
And yes, you will be able to make any uh you will be able to analyze all sorts of companies.
是的，你將能夠分析所有類型的公司。
04:02
is when I say right we will be looking at companies listed in USA we will be looking at companies
當我說「對」的時候，我們將觀察在美國上市的公司，我們將觀察公司
04:05
listed in UK and maybe some companies listed in India right so these are the three main markets that I'll be covering
在英國上市，以及可能在印度上市的一些公司，對吧？所以這三個主要市場就是我將會涵蓋的。
04:11
now if you are from somewhere from let's say from South African region we might not cover those companies but we will
如果你來自，比如说，南非地區，我們可能不會涵蓋那些公司，但我們會
04:18
cover those companies which are quite famous around the world maybe we'll pick Microsoft from USA and maybe Apple or
涵蓋那些在全世界都相當知名的公司，也許我們會從美國挑選微軟，也許是蘋果或
04:24
maybe Infosys or TCS from any from India right but o overall you are going to learn the entire process of fundamental
從印度來的 Infosys 或 TCS，對吧？但總體來說，你將會透過這門課程學習到基本面分析的
04:31
analysis through this course.
整個流程。
04:34
So let's see in the PPT and I'll share my Excel sheet with you as well in the next
所以讓我們看看這份 PPT，我也會在下一支
04:37
video. So see you there.
影片中與你分享我的 Excel 試算表。那麼，我們下支影片見。
04:40
Hello everyone and let's begin with the fundamental NAS score.
大家好，讓我們從基本面 NAS 分數開始。
04:43
This entire thing is going to be English.
這整段內容將會是英文的。
04:44
So if you are a Hindi audience please do not watch this thing.
所以如果你是印地語觀眾，請不要看這個。
04:48
If you are unable to understand English then please do not watch this entire playlist
如果你聽不懂英文，那麼請不要看這整個播放清單，
04:50
because this is solely for my English speaking audience right because we are indeed global right.
因為這完全是為了我的英語觀眾而設的，對吧？因為我們確實是全球性的，對吧。
04:55
So as you have already seen in the previous session in the previous video in the previous part
所以正如你在上一場、上一支影片、這支影片的前一部分中已經看到的，
04:58
of this video that really what we are going to learn what's the essence of fundamental addresses.
那真的就是我們將要學習的內容，基本面分析的精髓是什麼。
05:04
Now I'm going to explain to you in details about what this entire thing is going to be and
現在我要詳細向你解釋這整件事的內容是什麼，
05:07
what we are going to learn.
以及我們將會學到什麼。
05:10
I will try my level best to keep this around 12 to 15 lessons only so that you your
我會盡我所能將課程控制在 12 到 15 課左右，這樣你的
05:14
attention span stays within the uh whatever limits you have.
專注力就能維持在你的（無論是什麼）極限範圍內。
05:18
Maybe you have a higher attention span, maybe you have a lower attention span.
也許你的專注力比較長，也許比較短。
05:21
But I will try my level best to complete this entire concept in 12 to 15 videos.
但我會盡我所能，在 12 到 15 支影片內完成這整個概念。
05:26
So what we are going to learn intro to fundamental analysis, understanding financial
那麼我們將要學習的是基本面分析入門，以及理解財務報表。
05:30
The next session is going to be how to connect the dots around the financial statement.
下一節課將會說明如何將財務報表中的各個部分串連起來。
05:34
I will explain to you in easiest and simplest words possible.
我會用最簡單易懂的詞彙來為各位解釋。
05:37
Right? Obviously I cannot go way too easy because because you do need some accounting knowledge and some basic
對吧？當然，我不能講得太過簡化，因為你們確實需要一些會計知識以及對財務報表的基本
05:42
understanding of financial statements, what they are, how to analyze them, right?
認知，了解它們是什麼，以及如何分析它們，對吧？
05:46
You need some basic knowledge to understand it in depth.
你們需要一些基礎知識才能深入理解。
05:49
Right? And then we are going to see key financial ratios for stock analysis.
對吧？接著我們將探討股票分析的關鍵財務比率。
05:53
And we are going to pick one single sector to analyze the sectoral ratio that we can pick.
我們會挑選一個單一產業來分析，看看我們能選出哪些產業比率。
05:59
Types of industries we have and then we will learn Warren profit methods how he used
我們有哪些產業類型，然後我們將學習華倫（Warren）的獲利方法，他過去是如何
06:01
to pick stocks and how he picks stocks now right because there is a world of difference between the two.
挑選股票，以及他現在如何挑選股票，因為這兩者之間有著天壤之別。
06:08
UGLP and G GCR factor profile.
UGLP 和 G GCR 因子概況。
06:09
Now GCR factor profile is my own proprietary way of paying stocks.
GCR 因子概況是我自己獨有的選股方式。
06:12
I will teach it to you how to use screener to find stronger stock.
我會教你如何使用篩選工具來尋找強勢股票。
06:15
Now obviously if you are a foreigner, if you are studying from Pakistan or maybe any other country
當然，如果你是外國人，如果你是在巴基斯坦或其他
06:20
apart from India, you are going to find some difficulty in losing free because prisoner might not be available in your
除了印度以外的國家學習，你可能會發現要使用 Screener 有些困難，因為 Screener 可能不在你的
06:24
country. Now to solve that problem, we are going to do the entire analysis on ticker terminal.
國家提供服務。為了解決這個問題，我們將在 Ticker Terminal 上進行完整的分析。
06:30
Right? Now the thing is ticker terminal is a paid platform right you cannot just access all of the
對吧？現在的問題是 Ticker Terminal 是一個付費平台，對吧，你無法免費使用所有
06:35
feature for free but certain US stock are available which are which can which you can access the data for free right
功能，但某些美股是可以的，你可以免費存取這些數據，對吧，
06:42
because we are going to use the ticker terminal and it costs somewhere around $20 a month right so if you cannot
因為我們將使用 Ticker Terminal，它每個月大約要價 20 美元左右，對吧，所以如果你無法
06:48
invest $20 a month in this then I'm so sorry to say you are not going to learn then analysis types of industry
如果你每個月只投資20美元在這上面，那麼我很抱歉地說，你將無法學會如何分析產業類型
06:54
valuation and last but not the least fundamental analysis report that is we are going to cover Right.
評價方法，最後但同樣重要的是基本面分析報告，這就是我們即將涵蓋的內容。對吧。
07:00
So let's move forward with what we have around this.
那麼讓我們繼續我們手頭上的內容。
07:02
Okay. Points to follow.
好的。要點如下。
07:04
So make sure you follow these points and please pay close attention to whatever I'm going to speak
所以請確保你遵循這些要點，並請密切注意我接下來要說的
07:07
or whatever I'm going to teach.
以及我接下來要教的任何內容。
07:10
Right? So please make sure you keep your phone away and do the as I give you.
對吧？所以請確保你把手機收起來，並照我說的做。
07:15
Right? So let me just explain in detail once and for all what exactly is fundamental
對吧？那麼讓我詳細解釋一次，基本面分析
07:18
analysis. Right?
到底是什麼。對吧？
07:20
It is simply a method used by investor to study a company's financial health.
它簡單來說就是投資者用來研究一家公司財務狀況的方法。
07:24
Now when I say financial health, you need to have a great understanding around basics of
當我說財務狀況時，你需要對會計的基礎知識有很好的理解
07:29
accounting right basics of accounting and you need to have a good understanding of what are financial
對吧，會計的基礎知識，而且你需要對什么是
07:35
statements.
財務報表有很好的理解。
07:36
You need to know the line items of the financial statements so that you can have a great understanding
你需要知道財務報表中的各個項目，這樣你才能很好地理解
07:40
of how to interpret those numbers, how to make sense of those numbers.
如何解讀這些數字，如何理解這些數字的意義。
07:45
Now if a particular metric is going up and up and up, what it means for the entire all the
現在，如果某個特定的指標持續上升，這對於整個
07:48
three financial sequence business performance and growth potential before deciding to invest in a stock.
三張財務報表所顯示的業務表現和增長潛力意味著什麼，是在決定投資某支股票之前需要考量的。
07:54
Now I'm just assuming that you are simply a retail investor trying to invest some of
現在我假設你只是一個散戶投資者，試圖將你的一些
07:59
your surplus capital in the market equity capital markets right now I'm just assuming it now you might be
多餘資金投入資本市場，對吧，我現在只是假設。現在你可能
08:03
thinking p how do I get a job in this now to get a job in equity capital markets now it requires a specialized
在想，那我要如何在這領域找到工作呢？要在股權資本市場找到工作，這需要專業的
08:10
education it requires professional education like CAPS MBA right if you are from India and if you are from outside
教育方面，它需要像CAPS MBA這樣的專業教育，對吧？如果你來自印度，或者來自印度以外
08:15
India now I'm assuming if you're watching this you are from outside India your chances of getting a job in the
的地方。現在我假設如果你正在看這個影片，你是來自印度以外，你在
08:20
capital markets gets manyfold up if you pursue an MB in finance right so instead of focusing on short-term price movement
資本市場找到工作的機會會因為攻讀金融碩士而倍增，對吧？所以與其關注短期價格波動
08:27
a fundamental analyst typically looks at how strong and profitable a companies over the long run right this is what we
，基本面分析師通常會關注一家公司在長期內有多強大和有利可圖，對吧？這就是我們
08:33
are going to learn how to analyze this now I'm not saying I will teach you based on the historical past performance
接下來要學習的——如何分析這一點。我現在不是說我會基於公司過去的歷史表現來教你
08:39
of the company right I'm not saying that that historical performance will be the key
，對吧？我不是說歷史表現將是
08:46
thing but I want to predict I want to forecast the number I want to create a mechanism through which I can say about
關鍵因素，但我想預測，我想預測數字，我想建立一個機制，透過這個機制我可以說出
08:53
this is the company that and it is going to perform so well in the future based on the analysis I have done and this is
這是一家怎樣的公司，並且基於我所做的分析，它將在未來表現得如此出色，而這是
08:59
something that we need to keep in your mind that fundamental analyst wants to see what is going to happen in the
我們需要記在心裡的一點：基本面分析師希望看到未來將會發生什麼事
09:06
future with a certain amount of probability now I'm not saying key if you learn this course or any other
，並帶有某種程度的機率。我現在不是說，關鍵在於如果你學習這門課程或任何其他
09:11
course you are going to forecast it with utmost precision right because let me tell you one thing precision in finance
課程，你就能以極高的精確度來預測，對吧？因為讓我告訴你一件事，在金融領域，精確度
09:17
is a buzz word it does not exist precision does not exist in finance only probabilities are there.
只是一個流行詞，它並不存在。精確度在金融中並不存在，存在的只有機率。
09:26
If anyone of if you get a guaranteed return scheme now then you have been scammed.
如果你遇到任何人或任何保證回報的方案，那你就是被騙了。
09:31
There is no such thing as guarantee precision precise numbers right forecasting
根本沒有保證、精確、準確數字這回事，對吧？預測
09:35
predicting right it's all about probabilities and we are going to learn probability and that is the reason you
預言，對吧？這一切都是關於機率，我們將要學習機率，這就是為什麼
09:39
will see that CFA syllabus have a entire subject on the quantitative method where you learn the advanced probabilities
你會看到CFA（特許金融分析師）的考試大綱中有一整個關於量化方法的科目，你在那裡會學到進階機率
09:46
right that how to predict the probabilities of a certain event happening and that is the reason you see
，對吧？如何預測某個事件發生的機率，這也是為什麼你會看到
09:52
the why finance is such a elusive subject right because every single thing is about probabilities over here and not
金融學為何是如此難以捉摸的學科，對吧？因為這裡的每一件事都是關於機率，而不是
10:00
So think in terms of probabilities.
所以要從機率的角度來思考。
10:02
That is the first step in being a good fundamental analyst.
這是成為優秀基本面分析師的第一步。
10:06
Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement.
損益表、資產負債表和現金流量表。
10:08
These are your main three financial statements.
這是你主要的三大財務報表。
10:10
Right? We have your statement of comprehensive income as well.
對吧？我們還有綜合損益表。
10:13
But that is not an important part of this course.
但這不是本課程的重要部分。
10:16
Right? We are going to learn how to actually connect the dots around three financial statements
對吧？我們將學習如何圍繞這三大財務報表進行關聯分析，並確保在分析時不會犯錯。
10:20
and how to make sure that we do not make any mistake when analyzing them.
這是本課程的核心。
10:26
This is the move of this course.
這是本課程的核心。
10:27
Now let's talk about one of the biggest mutual fund managers.
現在讓我們談談其中一位最大的共同基金經理人。
10:29
One of the most successful mutual fund managers entire world has ever seen.
全球有史以來最成功的共同基金經理人之一。
10:34
His name is Mr.
他的名字是彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）先生。
10:35
Now if you are keen about learning more about this philosophy then I would recommend one book of his which is one
如果你渴望深入了解他的投資哲學，我推薦他的一本書，那就是《彼得·林奇的成功投資》（One Up On Wall Street）。
10:35
Peter Lynch.
彼得·林奇。
10:41
upon Wall Street.
《征服華爾街》（One Up On Wall Street）。
10:44
One of the finest book one upon Wall Street right this is one of the best books you can read on
這是華爾街最經典的著作之一，也是你在基本面分析方面能讀到的最好的書籍之一。
10:49
fundamental management.
當你買股票時，你基本上是在買一家企業，對吧。
10:51
When you buy stock you are basically buying a business right.
你只是在買一家公司的一部分。
10:53
You are simply buying a piece of a company.
因此，了解這家底層企業和公司的業務變得至關重要。
10:55
it becomes importantly crucial for you to understand that what the underlying
我們將學習這一點，別擔心，只要跟著我的步伐即可。
10:58
business and company does and we are going to learn it right right so do not worry about anything just stick with me
這家基礎企業和公司在做什麼
11:05
right this session is going to be a bit theoretical but I understand but you need to stick with me right buffet on
好的，這堂課程會比較理論一些，但我希望大家能繼續聽下去。巴菲特在買股票時再次強調...
11:11
buying stocks once again buffet is also keeps on saying same thing that you need to analyze the business like a business
巴菲特也一直重申同樣的事情：你需要像一位商業分析師，而不是證券分析師那樣去分析一門生意。對吧，基本面分析的精髓。
11:16
analyst and not a security analyst right essence of fundamental analysis see the only thing that you need to be good at
看著，要進行基本面分析，要將一檔股票作為基本面分析來剖析，你唯一需要精通的...
11:24
to analy analyze a fundamental analyze a stock as a fundamental analysis.
就是...
11:31
Once your one is your quantitative analysis and the other one is your qualitative
一是你的量化分析，另一個是你的質化分析。
11:33
analysis which comes out under your mode analysis and your management analysis.
而質化分析來自於你的模式分析和管理層分析。
11:38
We are going to learn that right.
我們將會學到這些，對吧。
11:39
Quantitative I will cover qualitative is something which is highly subjective in nature.
量化分析我會涵蓋，而質化分析本質上是高度主觀的。
11:44
Even though I will teach you how to analyze a company qualitatively but let me tell you one thing you are going
儘管我會教你如何質化分析一家公司，但讓我告訴你一件事，你將會遇到...
11:49
to face circumstances.
你將會遇到的情況是...
11:51
you are going to see the company sector where your own judgment will be at stake.
你將會看到某些公司或行業，屆時你自己的判斷將面臨考驗。
11:56
Your own judgment will create the results that you are seeking.
你自己的判斷將會創造出你所尋求的結果。
11:58
So it is something which is highly subjective and I cannot teach you.
所以這是非常主觀的，我沒辦法教你。
12:01
I cannot give you a shortcut hack or a formula.
我無法給你一個捷徑、訣竅或公式。
12:05
Right? It does not work that way.
對吧？事情不是這樣運作的。
12:07
So make sure whatever you are going to do practice it.
所以請確保，無論你打算做什麼，都要實踐它。
12:11
Whether you learn it from me or someone else please practice what you are going to learn.
不論你是跟我學還是跟別人學，請實踐你所學到的東西。
12:14
Right? Most investor look for cheap stocks.
對吧？大多數投資人都在尋找便宜的股票。
12:16
Right? This is something I have always seen.
對吧？這是我一直以來看到的現象。
12:19
Every single retail investor is after low PE ratio, low price to book ratio.
每一位散戶投資人都在追求低本益比、低股價淨值比。
12:24
They think it's a cheap stock and it will a value investing.
他們認為這是一檔便宜的股票，並且這是一種價值投資。
12:28
They clearly think that what they do not understand is buying a strong business at a fair price often
他們顯然不明白的是，以合理的價格買進一門好生意，往往
12:33
delivers better long-term returns than a weak business at a deep discount.
能比以大幅折價買進一門爛生意帶來更好的長期報酬。
12:38
And how to identify such things that is what we are going to learn in this course.
而如何識別這樣的標的，正是我們將在這門課程中要學習的。
12:42
So make sure you stick with me and understand the difference between a
所以請務必跟著我，並理解優質股、
12:44
quality stock versus a poor quality stocks versus a value investing stock versus a value trap stock.
劣質股、價值投資股與價值陷阱股之間的區別。
12:52
Right? So make sure you follow the lessons and we make sure you download the sheet and
對吧？所以請務必跟著課程進度，並確保你下載了試算表以及
12:56
download all the materials related to this post and please make sure you join the telegram group we have right and
下載所有與本篇貼文相關的資料，也請務必加入我們的 Telegram 群組，
13:03
I'll see you in the next session.
我們下堂課見。
13:06
That is it folks for this session.
各位，本堂課就到此為止。
13:07
Thank you so much.
非常感謝大家。
13:09
Signing off.
我們下堂課見。
