Takeaway number one, investment versus speculation.
第一個重點，投資與投機的區別。
00:06
What's the difference between an investor and a speculator?
投資者和投機者之間有什麼不同？
00:10
Is it that the former wears a tie and is working in some fancy office at some fancy street in cities like New York, London or Stockholm and that the latter is gambling with his mortgage at the casino?
是否前者穿著西裝，在紐約、倫敦或斯德哥爾摩等城市的高級辦公室工作，而後者則是在賭場用房貸賭博？
00:25
Nah, I think we need a more useful definition than that.
不是，我認為我們需要一個更實用的定義。
00:29
Distinguishing between investing and speculation lies at the very heart of security analysis because it's absolutely essential for the sake of your portfolio returns to understand which one you are engaged in.
区分投資和投機是證券分析的核心，因為為了你的投資組合回報，必須理解你正在從事的是哪一種。
00:42
As a matter of fact, Benjamin Graham would call most of the aforementioned tie-wearing Wall Streeters speculators.
事實上，本傑明·格雷厄姆會稱大多數上述穿西裝的華爾街人士為投機者。
00:50
It's just that they cover their gambling really well with speculation in stocks of strong companies.
只是他們用強勢公司的股票投機，很好地掩蓋了他們的賭博行為。
00:58
Here's what Benjamin Graham and David Dodd says.
本傑明·格雷厄姆和大衛·多德是這麼說的。
01:02
An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principle and a satisfactory return.
投資操作是指經過徹底分析，能保證本金安全並獲得滿意回報的操作。
01:12
Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.
不符合這些要求的操作就是投機。
01:17
This quote probably erases more questions than it gives answers, so let's break it down.
這句話可能引發的問題比答案還多，所以讓我們來拆解一下。
01:24
By thorough analysis, Benjamin Graham refers to the importance of a careful study of available facts with the attempt to draw conclusions from that with sound logic and based on established principles.
For instance, buying Netflix at a price of 140 times its highest reported yearly earnings is speculation, not investment, as the valuation clearly relies on expectations about the future rather than available facts.
Safety in the security markets is never achievable under all circumstances, but the investor must protect himself under all normal or reasonably likely conditions.
在證券市場中，安全永遠無法在所有情況下都實現，但投資者必須在所有正常或合理可能的條件下保護自己。
02:07
Benjamin Graham is famous for coining the expression margin of safety, which allows for protection by insisting that the value of a security should be bought only when it can be obtained with a margin to the price.
For example, buying Apple at $210 per share if you think that its actually worth $220 per share would be considered speculation.
例如，如果你認為蘋果股票實際上值每股220美元，但以每股210美元購買，這將被視為投機。
02:31
You should always factor in the possibility of being wrong in your analysis.
你應該始終考慮到你的分析可能出錯的可能性。
02:36
But more on this in the Intelligent Investor.
但在《聰明的投資者》中會有更多關於這方面的內容。
02:39
A satisfactory return is truly subjective.
滿意的回報確實是主觀的。
02:44
Any return that the investor is willing to accept will actually do here, as long as he acts with some kind of intelligence.
任何投資者願意接受的回報都可以，只要他以某種智慧行事。
02:51
If it's possible to acquire US treasury bills at 5% annual return, but for some reason he decides to invest his money in a microcap mining stock at an expected 4% return, it would fail to be regarded as an investment operation, even if he has safety and a thorough analysis in place.
In summary, or perhaps in addition, an investment operation is one that can be justified based on both quantitative and qualitative grounds.
總之，或者可以說，投資操作是指能夠基於定量和定性理由進行合理化的操作。
03:24
But more on this in takeaway number 3.
關於這一點，我們將在第三個要點中進一步討論。
03:27
Going back to the previously mentioned Netflix case, this does not mean that the analyst is convinced that the market valuation of Netflix is wrong, but rather that he is not convinced that its valuation is right.
He would call a substantial part of the price a speculative component, in the sense that it is paid not for demonstrated, but for expected results.
他會將價格中相當大的一部分稱為投機成分，因為這部分價格不是基於已證明的結果，而是基於預期的結果。
03:53
Benjamin Graham provides an excellent chart of how the price of a security is determined and points out which components that may be regarded as investment, and which that are speculative.
In the case of Netflix, a great portion of the current market cap of almost $170 billion is made up of the market factors, which are 100% speculative, and the future value factors, which are part speculative and part investment.
Only a small portion is made up of true investment value, which Benjamin Graham refers to as the intrinsic value factors.
只有很小一部分是真正的投資價值，本傑明·格雷厄姆稱之為內在價值因素。
04:37
Takeaway number 2, classification of securities.
要點二，證券的分類。
04:41
So, we now have a brief understanding of what the difference between an investment and a speculation is.
現在我們對投資和投機的區別有了簡要的理解。
04:47
We are going to focus on the former in this series.
在本系列中，我們將專注於前者。
04:52
There are many different types of securities that could qualify for investment purposes though, and we will now outline them briefly.
然而，有許多不同類型的證券可以用於投資目的，我們將簡要概述它們。
05:00
The traditional classification is bonds, preferred stocks, and common stocks.
傳統的分類是債券、優先股和普通股。
05:07
Bonds have an unqualified right to fixed interest payments, an unqualified right to the repayment of the loan or principal amount, but no other participation rights in either assets nor profits.
債券擁有無條件獲得固定利息支付的權利，以及無條件償還貸款或本金的權利，但不參與資產或利潤的分配。
05:23
A preferred stock, despite its name, is more like a bond than a stock.
優先股雖然名為股票，但更像是債券。
05:28
It has a stated dividend, but nothing must be paid if the common stock doesn't receive anything either.
它有固定的股息，但如果普通股不獲得任何分紅，則無需支付。
05:33
It has the right to its principal if the company goes bankrupt and gets money before any common stockholder.
如果公司破產，它有權獲得本金，並優先於普通股股東獲得資金。
05:40
Like the bond, it doesn't participate in any excess profits made by the company.
與債券一樣，它不參與公司超額利潤的分配。
05:46
The common stock has the right to all assets and profits in excess of everything paid to bond and preferred stockholders.
普通股有權獲得在支付債券和優先股股東後剩餘的所有資產和利潤。
05:55
This class of security is what people typically refer to when they talk about stocks.
這類證券是人們通常談論股票時所指的。
06:01
Because common stocks basically aren't promised anything, many mistakenly think that stocks are always speculative, and that bonds are always investments.
因為普通股基本上沒有任何承諾，許多人錯誤地認為股票總是投機性的，而債券總是投資。
06:11
This is not true.
這並不正確。
06:13
A bondholder is promised that he'll be repaid, but that promise is only as good as the financial position of the company that's making it.
債券持有人被承諾會得到償還，但這承諾僅與作出承諾的公司的財務狀況一樣可靠。
06:23
Rather than organizing securities according with their titles, Benjamin Graham suggests that securities should be organized based on their normal behavior after purchase.
本傑明·葛拉漢建議，與其根據證券的名稱來組織證券，不如根據它們在購買後的正常行為來組織證券。
06:34
Why? Because then, the categories can be treated similarly from an investment perspective.
為什麼？因為這樣，這些類別可以從投資角度被同樣對待。
06:42
The suggestion is, the first category is made up of securities of the fixed value type.
這個建議是，第一類由固定價值類型的證券組成。
06:48
It consists of high-grade bonds and preferred stocks, and the assumption is that you, more or less, should be able to forget about these and collect the interest payments.
它包括高等級債券和優先股，假設你基本上可以忘記這些證券並收取利息。
07:00
The second category is made up of senior securities of variable value.
第二類由可變價值的高級證券組成。
07:05
It's divided in two parts.
它分為兩部分。
07:08
Issues of high-grade, but that at the same time have profit possibilities, such as convertible bonds, and issues of inadequate quality, such as low-grade.
高等級但同時具有獲利可能性的證券，例如可轉換債券，以及不足質量的證券，例如低等級債券。
07:18
And preferred stocks.
以及優先股。
07:21
The last category is common stocks.
最後一類是普通股。
07:25
We'll examine these categories in greater detail in the third and fourth video of this series.
我們將在本系列的第三和第四部影片中更詳細地檢視這些類別。
07:35
Takeaway number three, quantitative analysis versus qualitative analysis.
第三個要點，定量分析與定性分析。
07:41
In takeaway number one, we learned that an investment operation must be able to be justified both on quantitative and qualitative grounds.
在第一個要點中，我們了解到投資操作必須能夠在定量和定性兩方面都被證明是合理的。
07:50
We're now going to decipher what that means in practice.
現在我們要解釋這在實踐中意味著什麼。
07:55
An analysis should be thorough for it to be considered an investment operation.
分析必須全面，才能被視為投資操作。
07:59
The issue is that already in Graham's days, the supply of information of a single security was typically more than an analyst could plow through.
這個問題在葛拉漢的時代就已經存在，即單一證券的信息供應通常超過分析師能夠處理的範圍。
08:08
And Graham only lived to see the very beginning of the information age.
而葛拉漢只活到資訊時代的最初階段。
08:14
The supply of information has increased exponentially during the last decades.
在過去的幾十年中，信息的供應已經指數級增長。
08:19
Needless to say, an investor can only consume so much of it.
不言而喻，投資者只能消耗這麼多資訊。
08:24
The depth of his analysis should therefore depend on his invested amount, as that is a good indicator of how much value additional analysis can add.
因此，他的分析深度應取決於他的投資金額，因為這是一個很好的指標，顯示額外分析能增加多少價值。
08:34
If Warren Buffett can increase his yearly returns by 1%, that would mean about $800 million more in income that year.
如果沃倫·巴菲特能將他的年回報率提高1%，那麼當年他的收入將增加約8億美元。
08:43
If the average Swede can increase his return by the same percentage, he will only increase his income by approximately $1,900.
如果普通瑞典人能將他的回報率提高相同的百分比，他的收入只會增加約1,900美元。
08:51
Depending on how much time he must invest to achieve that extra return, it may or may not be time well spent.
根據他必須投入多少時間來實現這額外回報，這可能是也可能不是值得花費的時間。
08:59
Information is of two types. Quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative data may be divided into capitalization, earnings and dividends, assets and liabilities, and operating statistics.
資訊有兩種類型：定量和定性。定量數據可以分為資本化、收益和股利、資產和負債，以及營運統計。
09:17
And qualitative information are things such as quality of management, customer preferences and trends, competitive landscape and technological change.
而定性資訊包括管理品質、客戶偏好和趨勢、競爭環境和技術變革等。
09:30
This book is heavily tilted towards the quantitative data, after all it's called value investing.
這本書嚴重傾向於定量數據，畢竟它被稱為價值投資。
09:37
And Benjamin Graham states that Moreover, quantitative data typically reveals a lot about the qualitative factors as well.
本傑明·格雷厄姆指出，此外，定量數據通常也能揭示很多關於定性因素的資訊。
09:57
Is the management competent? Well, had the earnings, assets and dividends of the company increased under their lead, in that case, yes, very competent.
With that said, quantitative data are useful only to the extent that they are supported by the qualitative survey of the enterprise.
雖然如此，定量數據只有在得到企業定性調查支持的範圍內才有用。
10:19
The intelligent investor should insist on having both a quantitative and a qualitative validation of his investments.
聰明的投資者應該堅持對他的投資進行定量和定性的雙重驗證。
10:31
Takeaway number four. Obstacles for the analyst. There are three primary obstacles that make successful security analysis more difficult than it might seem at a first glance.
第四個要點：分析師的障礙。有三個主要障礙使成功的證券分析比乍看之下更困難。
10:44
These are inadequate or incorrect data, uncertainties of the future and irrational behavior of the markets.
這些是不充分或不正確的數據、未來的不確定性以及市場的非理性行為。
10:55
We will discuss the first point in much greater detail in the second video when we dive into the two major financial statements of a company, the income statement and the balance sheet.
Either by going out of business, being surpassed by new companies, or by being acquired by other major players.
這些公司要麼倒閉，要麼被新公司超越，要麼被其他大企業收購。
12:13
These were some of the companies with the greatest profit margins, the greatest earning trends, with the best financial positions.
這些公司曾擁有最高的利潤率、最佳的盈利趨勢和最穩健的財務狀況。
12:21
But, in investing, the future is often no respecter of statistical data.
但在投資領域，未來往往不會尊重統計數據。
12:29
Even if the investor concludes that there's a discrepancy between the true, so-called intrinsic value of a security and its price, the market may not realize its mistake. And after holding on to that same security for years, during which the market remains irrational,
the investor may have to witness how his original thesis no longer holds true, whereupon he will have to sell that security off with a loss.
投資者可能不得不見證其最初的論點不再成立，最終只能以虧損賣出該證券。
13:02
Takeaway number 5. Investing is the search for exceptional cases.
第五點總結：投資是尋找例外情況。
13:08
So, investing seems like it's quite tough. Is it even so that the factors mentioned in the previous takeaway nullifies any effort of the analyst?
因此，投資看起來相當困難。之前提到的因素是否會使分析師的努力付諸東流？
13:18
The answer is yes, in most cases, but not all.
答案是：在大多數情況下是的，但並非全部。
13:24
The intelligent investor will have to analyze a whole bunch of companies.
聰明的投資者必須分析大量公司。
13:29
In most cases, he will conclude that its securities can't be bought with the aforementioned margin of safety, and at the same time, yield a satisfactory return.
在大多數情況下，他會得出結論：這些證券無法以安全邊際買入，同時又能獲得滿意的回報。
13:39
But eventually, he will find investments where both are obtainable.
但最終，他會找到同時滿足這兩個條件的投資機會。
13:45
Security analysis isn't an exact science. You should only act in exceptional cases.
證券分析並非一門精確的科學。你只應在例外情況下採取行動。
13:52
Benjamin Graham gives a great example of this in the common stock of right aeronautical that was priced at $8 per share back in 1922, when it had, for some time, been earning $2 per share and had more than $8 per share in cash only.
