One day I looked at a small brewery, the F&M Shafer Brewing Company.
有一天,我看了一家小型釀酒廠,F&M Shafer Brewing Company。
00:05
I'll never forget looking at the balance sheet and noticing that the book value of the company was 40 million dollars higher than the current market cap, with 40 million dollars in intangible assets.
Hi there, I'm looking at your balance sheet right now and I just wonder where does these 40 million dollars in intangibles come from?
喂,你好,我正在看你們的資產負債表,我想知道這4000萬美元的無形資產是從哪裡來的?
00:52
Oh, don't you know our jingle?
噢,你不知道我們的廣告歌嗎?
01:05
That was my first analysis of an intangible asset, and of course it was way, way overstated.
這是我第一次分析無形資產,當然,它被嚴重高估了。
01:14
Let's just say that I didn't end up buying the company.
我只能說,我最終沒有買下這家公司。
01:17
I wonder how many of today's jingles are carried on company balance sheets.
我想知道今天有多少廣告歌被記錄在公司的資產負債表上。
01:25
The success of an investment ultimately depends on future developments, but they can never be forecasted with accuracy.
投資的成功最終取決於未來的發展,但這些發展永遠無法被準確預測。
01:33
If you have precise information about a company's present situation, however, you are better equipped than others of understanding the future as well.
然而,如果你擁有關於公司當前狀況的精確資訊,你就比其他人更能理解未來。
01:41
Understanding the current situation of a firm is strongly connected with the correct interpretation of its financial statements, and in this video we'll learn just how to do that, because this is a top 5 takeaway summary of the interpretation of financial statements, by the legendary
father of value investing himself, Benjamin Graham.
價值投資之父本人,本傑明·葛拉漢。
02:08
Takeaway number 1, understanding the income statement and the balance sheet.
要點一,理解損益表和資產負債表。
02:13
To appreciate the rest of this summary, it's important to be aware of the basics of what an income statement and a balance sheet are.
要理解這個總結的其餘部分,了解損益表和資產負債表的基本概念非常重要。
02:22
Explaining every item on these two statements wouldn't make a good top 5 list though, so I'll just give a quick introduction here, and then we'll get on with the real juicy stuff.
The income statement The income statement focuses on the revenues of a firm and its expenses, during a specific time period, normally a quarter or a year.
損益表 損益表專注於公司在特定時間段內的收入和支出,通常是一個季度或一年。
02:45
The statement begins with revenue and ends up with company earnings or net income.
該報表從收入開始,最終得出公司的盈利或淨收入。
02:51
Let's see how First, costs of goods are typically subtracted, then other operating expenses are deducted such as wages, transportation, utilities and depreciation.
讓我們來看看 首先,銷貨成本通常被減去,然後其他營運支出被扣除,例如工資、運輸、公用事業和折舊。
03:06
Now we've calculated the operating income, or the EBIT, which stands for Earnings, Before, Interest and Taxes.
現在我們已經計算了營業收入,也就是 EBIT,即稅前息前利潤。
03:17
If we remove interest payments on debts, and let the government have their slice of the cake, and we removed the before, because now it's after, we end up with Earnings or net income.
The balance sheet The balance sheet is a snapshot in time, usually December 31, which visualises two sides that must always balance out, how much a company owns, and how much it owes.
What it owns is shown on the asset side, what it owes is shown on the liability side.
公司擁有的顯示在資產方,公司欠的顯示在負債方。
03:56
Long-term ones such as machinery, real estate, production plans and intangibles, and current or short-term ones, such as cash in the bank, liquid securities and inventory.
長期資產,如機器、房地產、生產計劃和無形資產,以及流動或短期資產,如銀行存款、流動證券和存貨。
04:10
The liability side is divided into primarily three parts.
負債方主要分為三個部分。
04:14
The long-term liabilities, the current liabilities and the shareholders' equity, money that belongs to you, as the stock owner.
長期負債、流動負債以及股東權益,即作為股票持有者,屬於你的錢。
04:26
Wait what?
等等,什麼?
04:28
Why is money that belongs to me listed on the liability side?
為什麼屬於我的錢會列在負債方?
04:32
Yes, this is kind of confusing, but it should be seen from the company's perspective.
是的,這有點混淆,但應該從公司的角度來看。
04:37
The shareholders' equity is what the company owes to you as a shareholder.
股東權益是公司作為股東欠你的。
04:43
Favourably, it could also be viewed as the difference between assets and liabilities, so essentially, assets equals to liabilities, including shareholders' equity, really means assets minus liabilities equals to shareholders' interest.
Your local accountant may think that this is pure technicalities, but it's the most useful way to view it as an investor.
你的當地會計師可能認為這是純技術性問題,但作為投資者,這是最有用的觀點。
05:12
Takeaway number two, industry specifics.
要點二,行業特定。
05:17
From these two statements, there are many useful indicators that you can calculate, numbers that will help you in your fundamental analysis of a company.
從這兩個報表中,你可以計算出許多有用的指標,這些數字將幫助你進行公司的基本面分析。
05:26
However, these numbers typically vary from one industry to the other.
然而,這些數字通常因行業而異。
05:31
Let's have a look at three commonly used indicators.
讓我們來看三個常用的指標。
05:35
The Net Margin This indicator can be calculated by taking the net income of a company and dividing it by the revenue.
淨利率 這個指標可以通過取公司的淨收入除以營收來計算。
05:45
Basically, it tells you how much money that's left for potential reinvestments in the firm or for distribution to shareholders per earned dollar in the firm, even though that's a slight simplification.
The Current Ratio By dividing current assets with current liabilities, we get the current ratio.
流動比率 通過將流動資產除以流動負債,我們得到流動比率。
06:22
This is an indicator of whether the company will be able to pay its short-term obligations or not.
這是一個指標,用於判斷公司是否能夠償還其短期債務。
06:27
The number better be higher than one, especially if the company is struggling with profits, or else it will soon have to sell off-long-term assets, borrow more money, or ask investors for more capital.
Benjamin Graham suggests that the ratio should be higher than two, but once again, this depends on the industry.
本傑明·格雷厄姆建議這個比率應該大於二,但再次強調,這取決於行業。
06:48
For example, a construction company might be fine with the number slightly below one if they have reoccurring profits and a small inventory.
例如,一家建築公司如果有持續的利潤和較小的庫存,可能在略低於一的數字下也能運作良好。
06:55
On the other hand, a manufacturing company, at a number below one, could be in a bad position, particularly if its inventory isn't liquid.
另一方面,一家製造公司,如果數字低於一,可能處於不利地位,特別是如果其庫存不流動。
07:06
The PB-Rachio The PB, or price-to-book ratio, can be calculated by dividing the market cap of the company with the total value of its balance sheet, which is equal to the sum of either the left hand or right hand side.
市賬率 市賬率(PB)可以通過將公司的市值除以其資產負債表的總值來計算,這等於左邊或右邊的總和。
07:23
Once again, highly dependent on industry.
再次強調,這高度依賴於行業。
07:27
A money bank may have a huge balance sheet, and therefore a low PB-Rachio, while consulting firm is in the opposite situation.
一家貨幣銀行可能有巨大的資產負債表,因此市賬率較低,而一家諮詢公司則處於相反的情況。
07:37
As we learn from the story in the introduction, sometimes the balance sheet of a company is inflated, and this can cause problems for the stock investor.
從引言中的故事我們了解到,有時公司的資產負債表會被夸大,這可能會給股票投資者帶來問題。
07:47
Next, we shall see why.
接下來,我們將看到為什麼。
07:52
Takeaway number three, watered stocks In the introduction, the jingle of Shafer was mentioned, and the fact that the company had entered this in the books as an asset on the balance sheet worth $40 million, was
Stocks such as Shafer are referred to as watered stocks, because of their tendency to overstate values in the financial statements, perhaps especially in the balance sheet.
Stock watering originally was a method to increase the weight of livestock before a sale.
股票注水最初是一種在銷售前增加牲畜重量的方法。
08:31
Cattle was tricked into bloating itself with water before being weighed during the transaction.
在交易期間稱重之前,牛被誘騙喝水使自己膨脹。
08:38
For stocks traded in the security markets, this is so common that Benjamin Graham says that little to no importance at all should be given to the part of assets on the balance sheet that are referred to as intangibles.
It's the income statement that reveals the real value of assets, not their arbitrary figures in the balance sheet.
是損益表揭示了資產的真實價值,而不是資產負債表中任意的數字。
09:00
Inflated numbers in the balance sheet may cause problems in the future for the investor, as the company might be forced to write down the value of these inflated assets.
資產負債表中夸大的數字可能會在未來給投資者帶來問題,因為公司可能被迫減記這些被夸大資產的價值。
09:10
This results in higher depreciations, which affects the net income of the company negatively.
這導致更高的折舊,進而對公司的淨收入產生負面影響。
09:16
If a company has a high value of total assets compared to revenues, this could be of major importance to consider, because the greater the assets, the greater the possible negative impact on earnings.
Takeaway number four, the liquidation value of a firm.
第四個要點,公司的清算價值。
09:37
Value investing strives to identify stocks that are priced lower than their intrinsic value.
價值投資致力於識別那些價格低於其內在價值的股票。
09:43
Something that Benjamin Graham discusses in his The Intelligent Investor, link in the description.
本傑明·格雷厄姆在他的《聰明的投資者》一書中討論過這一點,連結在說明中。
09:50
The intrinsic value is calculated by using fundamental analysis, and one method that Ben Graham is famous for in this regard is the book value approach.
內在價值是通過基本面分析計算得出的,而本·格雷厄姆在這方面最著名的方法之一就是賬面價值法。
10:01
If a firm was to sell off all its assets today, and using that to repay liabilities, the remaining cash is referred to as book value.
如果一家公司今天出售所有資產,並用所得款項償還負債,剩餘的現金被稱為賬面價值。
10:11
Although it's quite uncommon to see in today's market, a stock with a book value which exceeds its current market cap is a very interesting opportunity.
雖然在當今市場上很少見,但賬面價值超過其當前市值的股票是一個非常有趣的機會。
10:22
In such a situation, shareholders are left with options.
在這種情況下,股東有幾種選擇。
10:27
The downside of investing in the stock is limited, as the shareholders can decide to liquidate the entire business.
投資該股票的下行風險有限,因為股東可以決定清算整個業務。
10:33
At the same time, there's still a huge potential upside, if the company manages to improve its business.
同時,如果公司能夠改善其業務,仍然有巨大的潛在上行空間。
10:40
A word of caution is required though.
但需要提醒一句。
10:43
As mentioned in the previous takeaway, assets of a company can be watered.
如上一個要點所述,公司的資產可能被高估。
10:48
Here are three rules of thumb to have in mind when investing using the book value approach.
在使用賬面價值法進行投資時,有三個經驗法則需要記住。
10:53
Current assets are typically valued at fairer prices than fixed ones.
流動資產的估值通常比固定資產更公允。
10:59
The company is in a bad bargaining position in the event of a liquidation, so assets should probably be valued lower than market value.
公司在清算時處於不利的談判地位,因此資產可能應該估值低於市場價值。
11:10
The characteristics of the assets must also be considered.
還必須考慮資產的特性。
11:13
A specialized manufacturing company will probably have a harder time to sell off its manufacturing plants than a bank or an insurance company will have to sell off their financial assets.
一家專業製造公司在出售其製造工廠時可能比銀行或保險公司出售其金融資產更困難。
11:29
Takeaway number five, expected returns of the quantitative investor.
第五個要點,量化投資者的預期回報。
11:35
An investor that buys stocks when companies look cheap according to their financial statements only and sell when they look expensive according to the same statements will probably not make any spectacular profits.
On the other hand, the investor will probably avoid big losses.
另一方面,投資者可能會避免重大損失。
11:52
Therefore, my own analysis consists of two steps.
因此,我自己的分析分為兩個步驟。
11:57
Firstly, I filter out companies that look healthy based on financial statements and ratios and secondly, I filter them out based on market trends, competition, scalability and so on.
The first part is quantitative and the second is qualitative.
第一部分是定量分析,第二部分是定性分析。
12:15
The second part is way more time consuming but this is also the one that can turn an average stock market return into a spectacular one.
第二部分耗時更多,但這也是能將普通的股市回報轉化為卓越回報的關鍵。
12:25
The famous investor Philip Fisher recommends a similar approach to picking stocks in his common stocks and uncommon profits.
著名投資者菲利普·費雪在他的《普通股與非凡利潤》中推薦了類似的選股方法。
12:33
Link in the description.
鏈接在描述中。
12:38
That was everything for Benjamin Graham's the interpretation of financial statements.
本傑明·格雷厄姆的《財務報表解讀》就講到這裡。
12:44
Know Thy Income Statement and Balance Sheet Rachios are useful when considering the fundamentals of a company but beware if the numbers are healthy or not depends on the industry.
了解損益表和資產負債表比率在考慮公司基本面時很有用,但要注意數字是否健康取決於行業。
12:58
It's quite common that stocks are watered to look like they perform better than they actually do.
股票被稀釋以顯得表現比實際更好的情況相當常見。
13:04
If a stock is priced lower than its current book value, the intelligent investor should take a closer look.
如果股票的價格低於其當前賬面價值,聰明的投資者應該仔細研究。
13:10
This could be a great value investing opportunity.
這可能是一個很好的價值投資機會。
13:14
To achieve maximum portfolio returns, the value investors should do both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of his stock market investments.
為了實現投資組合的最大回報,價值投資者應該對其股市投資進行定量和定性分析。
THE INTERPRETATION OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (BY BENJAMIN GRAHAM)