Before we jump into the takeaways, a quick explanation of what a bagger is might be appropriate.
在進入要點之前，先簡單解釋一下「bagger」的含義可能更合適。
00:17
It's an expression from baseball, where a base is also referred to as a bag.
這是一個來自棒球的術語，其中「base」（壘）也被稱為「bag」（袋）。
00:22
And a 10 bagger is two home runs and doubled. Bottom line, a very successful play.
而「10 bagger」相當於兩個全壘打加一個二壘安打。總之，是一個非常成功的表現。
00:30
The term was coined by Peter Lynch in his one up on Wall Street.
這個術語是由彼得·林奇在他的《戰勝華爾街》一書中提出的。
00:34
There, he references to these 10 baggers, which are stocks that increase 10 times in value, and he also reveals his investing strategies on how to find them.
在書中，他提到了這些「10倍回報股」，即股價能增值10倍的股票，並揭示了如何尋找它們的投資策略。
00:43
This is a book about 100 baggers, which are stocks that increase 100 times in value.
這是一本關於「100倍回報股」的書，即股價能增值100倍的股票。
00:50
$10,000 invested in a 100 bagger turns into $1 million, a staggering increase.
在「100倍回報股」中投資1萬美元，將變成100萬美元，這是一個驚人的增長。
00:57
Managing to pick just 100 bagger in one's lifetime will probably secure your personal finances, and can potentially finance a retirement.
在一生中能成功選中一隻「100倍回報股」，可能就能保障你的個人財務，甚至有可能支撐你的退休生活。
01:06
For this book, Christopher Mayer studied 100 baggers during the period 1962 to 2014.
在這本書中，克里斯多夫·梅耶研究了1962年至2014年間的「100倍回報股」。
01:12
In total, 365 companies and their characteristics were used to draw the conclusions in this book.
總共研究了365家公司及其特徵，以得出這本書的結論。
01:20
Let's take a look at Christopher Mayer's suggestions on how to invest in stocks that return 100 to 1.
讓我們來看看克里斯多夫·梅耶關於如何投資能帶來100倍回報的股票的建議。
01:30
Takeaway number 1, buy puppies.
要點一，購買「幼犬股」。
01:34
First things first.
首先，你必須尋找那些從數學角度來講，有能力成為「100倍回報股」的公司。
01:36
You must look for companies that are able, I mean, basically from a mathematical standpoint, to become 100 baggers.
大型公司不一定是壞投資，但如果你在尋找「100倍回報股」，這些公司不應該是你的首選。
01:44
Large companies are not necessarily bad investments, but if you are looking for 100 baggers, these should not be your priority.
If you look at Microsoft or Apple, for instance, they already have a market cap of around a trillion dollars, which means that you must be quite creative to imagine that either one of them will grow or not.
如果它們中的一家真的實現了這一目標，其市值將是當今美國經濟總量的5倍之多。
02:03
100 times from here, and would one of them achieve that, they would be roughly 5 times larger than the US economies today.
Instead, concentrate your research on smaller companies, the puppies, that can grow, say, 10 to 20 times and still be regarded as small.
好的一點是，你不必在蘋果的創始人還在車庫工作時，或星巴克只有一家賣咖啡豆的店鋪時就發現它們。
02:24
The good thing is that you don't have to find, say, Apple, while the founders are still working from their garage, or Starbucks, with only one store selling coffee beans.
好的一點是，你不必在蘋果的創始人還在車庫工作時，或星巴克只有一家賣咖啡豆的店鋪時就發現它們。
02:35
Even many years later, there were still opportunities to hop on the wagon and enjoy hefty returns in these companies.
即使多年後，仍然有機會搭上這些公司的順風車，享受豐厚的回報。
02:43
There are approximately 4,000 domestic companies listed on the US stock exchanges today, among which approximately 30% are small puppies, so-called microcaps.
目前在美國股票交易所上市的國內公司約有4,000家，其中約30%是所謂的微型股，也就是小型公司。
02:55
This is a vast area to explore, and somewhere in this pile is the next Apple or Microsoft.
這是一個廣闊的探索領域，而下一個蘋果或微軟就藏在這堆公司中。
03:04
With that said, you should perhaps not look at the smallest companies either, with the unproven products and no sales.
話雖如此，你可能也不應該看那些最小的公司，那些產品未經證明且沒有銷售的公司。
03:11
In the study that gave rise to this book, the 365 companies that later experienced increases of a 10,000% had median sales of $175 million.
在這本書的研究中，那365家後來經歷了10,000%增長的公司，其銷售額的中位數為1.75億美元。
03:24
Christopher Mayer suggests that you should draw the puppy line somewhere around a billion dollars, but avoid the puppies who aren't even born yet.
Christopher Mayer建議你應該在約10億美元的地方劃定小型公司的界線，但要避免那些尚未誕生的小型公司。
03:37
Takeaway number two, the twin engines.
第二個要點，雙引擎。
03:41
Something that the 100 baggers of the last 50 years have had in common is growth, in all its dimensions.
在過去50年中，那些100倍增長的公司有一個共同點，那就是在各個方面的增長。
03:50
Christopher Mayer suggests that you should invest in companies that can enjoy both a strong growth in sales, but in valuation multiples as well.
Christopher Mayer建議你應該投資於那些能夠享受銷售強勁增長，同時估值倍數也能增長的公司。
04:00
Growing sales, combined with, for example, growing the price to earnings multiple, is something he refers to as the twin engines.
銷售的增長，加上例如盈利倍數的增長，是他所謂的雙引擎。
04:11
Let's start by having a look at the first engine, sales growth.
讓我們先來看第一個引擎，銷售增長。
04:16
The sales growth is essential in order to grow a company's valuation 100 fold.
銷售增長對於將公司的估值增長100倍至關重要。
04:21
If the growing sales also finds its way down to the bottom line and increases the net earnings, that is extra beneficial, as it will most likely increase the valuation multiples quicker.
It has had a tremendous sales growth, but the actual earnings, well, they have lag behind.
它的銷售增長非常驚人，但實際的盈利，嗯，它們落後了。
04:46
What you should be looking for are companies with a disruptive product, service or business model, where the company is reinvesting the earnings in the business to become even more competitive in the long term.
The second engine is the multiple growth, or multiple expansion.
第二個引擎是倍數增長，或倍數擴張。
05:08
Given that the multiples of the company aren't too expensive from the beginning, high growth is usually rewarded with high evaluation multiples.
假設公司的倍數從一開始就不是太高，高增長通常會得到高估值倍數的回報。
05:17
This is the twin engines at work.
這就是雙引擎的運作方式。
05:20
Let's consider the arithmetic.
讓我們來看看算術。
05:23
As an example, we'll use a company that currently has a price to earnings multiple of 15 and sales of about $200 million.
例如，我們使用一家目前市盈率為15倍、銷售額約為2億美元的公司。
05:33
If it can increase its sales by 100%, the stock price will increase by 100% as well, given that the multiples and the profit margin remains the same.
如果它能將銷售額增加100%，在倍數和利潤率保持不變的情況下，股價也將增加100%。
05:43
200% and the price will increase by 200%.
200%的話，股價將增加200%。
05:48
But what if we split that, so that the company grows 100% in sales and 100% in valuation?
但如果我們將其分開，使公司的銷售額和估值都增長100%呢？
05:57
When the two engines are working together, they strengthen each other, and the end result is not just a 200% increase, but a 300% increase in the stock.
當這兩個引擎一起運作時，它們會相互增強，最終結果不僅是200%的增長，而是股價300%的增長。
06:09
On the opposite side of the spectrum are stocks with very high valuations.
在另一個極端，是估值非常高的股票。
06:15
For those, one of the engines will work against you, and the company will need to achieve very high growth rates in sales to compensate for it.
對於這些股票，其中一個引擎會對你不利，公司需要實現非常高的銷售增長率來彌補。
06:26
So, search for companies that grow at a high pace, but try not to pay too much for them, so that you can enjoy the twin engines.
因此，尋找高速增長的公司，但盡量不要為它們支付過高的價格，這樣你才能享受雙引擎的好處。
06:39
Takeaway number three, owner-operators.
第三個要點，所有者經營者。
06:43
According to Christopher Mayer, ultimately, it's the management alone which is the 100x alchemist, and it is to those who have mastered the art of evaluating the alchemist that the stock market rewards with gold.
This means that, when it comes to investing, you should make sure that the operators of the company, that is, the board of directors, the CEO and so forth, have the right incentives for making the best decisions from the perspective of shareholders.
If these operators own large parts of the company, they'll lose money if the company performs poorly and gain money if the company performs well.
如果這些經營者擁有公司的大部分股份，公司表現不佳時他們會賠錢，公司表現良好時他們會賺錢。
07:21
This type of situation is what you must look for as an investor.
這種情況正是你作為投資者所要尋找的。
07:27
Let's take Jeff Bezos as an example.
我們以傑夫·貝佐斯為例。
07:30
He started Amazon when he was 30.
他30歲時創辦了亞馬遜。
07:33
He's now 55, continues to run Amazon, and still owns about 12% of the company.
現在他55歲，繼續經營亞馬遜，並仍然擁有公司約12%的股份。
07:39
You can be sure that he won't make some short-term decisions in order to reach some quarterly sales quota.
你可以確信，他不會為了達到某個季度銷售配額而做出一些短期決策。
07:46
He will, to the best of his abilities, make long-term decisions that, by extension, also will be the best for long-term shareholders.
他將盡其所能做出長期決策，這些決策也將對長期股東最有利。
07:54
If the plane that is Amazon crashes, the pilot, that is, Jeff Bezos, will crash with it, just as it ought to be.
如果亞馬遜這架飛機墜毀，飛行員也就是傑夫·貝佐斯也會隨之墜毀，這本來就是應有的結果。
08:06
For more on how to find great managers, please see my summary of the essays of Warren Buffett.
關於如何尋找優秀管理者的更多內容，請參閱我對沃倫·巴菲特文章的總結。
08:17
Takeaway number four, the coffee can portfolio.
第四個要點，咖啡罐投資組合。
08:21
Their coffee can portfolio is a method dating back to when people hit their most valuable possessions in a coffee can and put it under the mattress.
他們的咖啡罐投資組合方法可以追溯到人們將最有價值的財物放在咖啡罐裡並藏在床墊下的時代。
08:30
The method on how to invest in a hundred baggers is basically the same.
投資百倍股的方法基本上是相同的。
08:35
Pick the best stocks you can find and then put them in the coffee can.
選擇你能找到的最佳股票，然後將它們放入咖啡罐中。
08:39
The average hundred bagger required 26 years of holding before reaching its 100x status.
平均來說，百倍股需要持有26年才能達到100倍的回報。
08:46
Did I hear someone say passive income?
我是否聽到有人說被動收入？
08:50
Christopher Mayer makes the similarity between an investor and a fish.
克里斯托弗·梅耶將投資者與魚類作比較。
08:54
A fish only eats a bait that moves, and if the bait doesn't move, well, the fish doesn't care about it.
魚只會吃會動的餌，如果餌不動，魚就不會理會它。
09:01
Same thing often goes with investors.
投資者往往也是如此。
09:04
Stocks that don't move often sold due to lack of action, even though the fundamentals of the company moves steadily in the right direction.
缺乏動作的股票經常被賣出，即使公司的基本面穩步向好。
09:13
Also, stocks that underperform for a short period of time often sold.
此外，短期內表現不佳的股票也經常被賣出。
09:19
Again, even if the underlying business moves in the right direction.
同樣，即使基本業務向好。
09:25
Take monster beverages, as an example.
以怪獸飲料為例。
09:29
On quite a few occasions, the stock has lost 20% or more in value within a month, and on one occasion as much as 40%.
有好幾次，該股票在一個月內下跌了20%或更多，有一次甚至下跌了40%。
09:37
There were many situations in which it was probably tempting to sell the stock, but gee would that have been a mistake, as it became a hundred bagger in just 10 years.
有許多情況可能讓人想賣出該股票，但天哪，那將是一個錯誤，因為它在短短10年內成為了百倍股。
09:50
The best investors often say that the greatest enemy to superior returns are ourselves and our human traits, greed, fear, etc.
最佳投資者經常說，優異回報的最大敵人是我們自己和我們的人性特質，如貪婪、恐懼等。
10:00
However, different time periods of an investment's lifetime are affected differently by these damaging traits.
然而，投資生命週期的不同階段受這些有害特質的影響程度不同。
10:07
You are often most rational when you don't own the stock.
你在不持有股票時往往最理性。
10:12
The coffee can portfolio uses this as an advantage.
咖啡罐投資組合將此視為優勢。
10:16
After your due diligence is done and you have made a purchase, just put the stock in the coffee can and leave it be.
在完成盡職調查並購買後，只需將股票放入咖啡罐中，任其發展。
10:23
This is a way to protect you from yourself.
這是保護你不受自己情緒影響的方法。
10:29
You can view this as a boredom arbitrage.
你可以將此視為無聊套利。
10:32
As Warren Buffett puts it, the stock market is a device for transferring money from the inpatient to the patient.
如沃倫·巴菲特所言，股市是將金錢從沒耐心的人轉移到有耐心的人的工具。
10:41
So, buy right, then sit tight.
因此，正確買入，然後緊握不放。
10:45
This is how to make money in hundred baggers.
這就是如何在百倍股中賺錢。
10:52
Takeaway number 5, ignore the macro analyst.
要點五，忽略宏觀分析師。
10:56
When you have invested in a potential hundred bagger, or looking for new opportunities, you should ignore whatever the Fed is doing, who's the president at the moment, and what's currently going on in China.
Put blindfolders on and focus your strategy on analyzing and finding hundred baggers.
戴上眼罩，專注於分析和尋找百倍股的策略。
11:15
Because these jewels, they continue their journeys even during recessions.
因為這些瑰寶，即使在經濟衰退期間也會繼續前進。
11:20
The management of these companies seldom care about the current interest rates or Trump's latest tweet, they only care about the great products and services that they sell, and so should you.
As quarterly earnings are presented also during times of recession, companies that make headway and can show high demand of their product are rewarded by the stock market, even though it might be the autumn of the year 2008.
When you have spent time and effort and analyzing the stocks with great future potential, you don't want to miss out of the gains because a macro analyst might suggest so.
當你花費時間和精力分析具有巨大未來潛力的股票時，你不想因為宏觀分析師的建議而錯過收益。
12:01
Let's take a quick example from the financial crisis.
讓我們快速看一下金融危機時的例子。
12:04
The retail company Dollar Tree, which just so happens to be a hundred bagger, grew its revenues from $3.9 billion in 2007 to $4.2 billion in 2008.
The stock was rewarded by increasing from about $7.5 per share to $14 per share during that time, almost a 100% increase, while the S&P 500 during the same period lost about 40% of its value.
This merely works as an example of why it may be stupid to care about the macro hassle when you have successfully found a company that should be put in your coffee can portfolio.
這僅僅是一個例子，說明為何在你成功找到一家應放入咖啡罐投資組合的公司時，關注宏觀煩惱可能是愚蠢的。
12:49
Timing the market is hard, finding 100 baggers is no easy task either.
預測市場時機很難，尋找百倍股也不是一件容易的事。
12:55
Don't try to do the combination.
不要嘗試進行組合。
12:59
So, blindfolders on, ignore President Trump and Xi Jinping and focus on the task at hand, finding those jewels.
所以，蒙上眼睛，忽略川普總統和習近平，專注於手頭的任務，尋找那些寶石。
13:11
That's it on how to invest in stocks that return 100 to 1.
關於如何投資於回報100倍的股票，就講到這裡。
13:16
Let's have a recap, before you enter the stock market jungle for your hunt.
在你進入股市叢林進行獵捕之前，讓我們回顧一下。
13:21
Focus on companies that still have a long road to travel, but make sure that they are currently on the right path.
專注於那些仍有很長的路要走的公司，但要確保它們目前走在正確的道路上。
13:29
Look for companies that can continue their growth for years to come, and where there is still room for higher valuation of multiples, the twin engines.
尋找那些能夠在未來幾年內繼續成長的公司，並且仍有空間提高倍數估值的公司，這是雙引擎。
13:40
Only board the plane if the operators are on board too.
只有在經營者也登機的情況下，才登上飛機。
13:44
Avoid emotional errors by putting your stocks in the coffee can.
通過將你的股票放入咖啡罐中來避免情緒化的錯誤。
13:49
Turn off the news, stop checking the total value of your portfolio every day, smash that like button and focus on finding the future 100 baggers, no matter the market sentiment.
