Nike stock fell more than 18% on June 28th 2024
that wiped away more than $29 billion in market value in a single day few months earlier Shopify
stock drove more than 16% in a single day erasing
more than $18 billion in total market yet just a
month before that Tesla's stock Skyrocket 12% in a single day creating $50 billion in market value
what do all these big one-day stock movements
have in common they were all Market reactions
to earnings reports so if you're an investor you must know how to find read and analyze them
in this video I'll share the three simple steps to analyze any earnings report even if you're
a complete beginner hi my name is Brian Feroldi
它們都是市場對財報的反應。因此，如果您是投資者，您必須知道如何查找、閱讀和分析財報。在本影片中，我將分享三個簡單的步驟來分析任何財報，即使您是完全的新手。嗨，我是 Brian Feroldi，
00:36
I'm a financial educator who's been analyzing and
investing in businesses for more than 20 years so what is an earnings report every public company
in the US is required to file an up-to-date financial information with the Securities and
Exchange Commission every 90 days the shorter
filings are called 10 q's and the longer filing
is called a 10K these reports give investors a detailed look at the company's Current financial
condition and they can sometimes cause massive one-day price swings in the company's stock now
these reports could look intimidating at first
but they can actually be quite easy to read and
analyze once you know the three simple steps to show you these steps I'll walk through a made up
earnings report of a pretend company called best coffee company now step one of analyzing earnings
report starts before the company even reports
earnings and that's to know the expectations that
the company has on it now each quarter analysts who cover the stock estimate how much revenue
and earnings per share a company is expected to generate in any given period now some management
team help out these analysts by issuing guidance
which is when they predict how much revenue
or profits they're going to generate in a given period if a company doesn't issue Guidance
the analysts calculate these numbers themselves now what happens is a number of analysts put out
their estimates and then the average of all those
estimates are put together and that is called the
consensus number that a company is trying to hit now you can easily find and track these numbers
by using sites like finat which tracks a company's revenue and earnings per share on a quarterly and
annual basis another place that you can get them
is on Yahoo finance if you click on the analysis
tab can actually scroll down and see the earnings estimates for both the quarter ahead in revenue
and earnings now knowing these estimates is incredibly important because the company's actual
results will be compared to these expectations
and that can have a huge impact on the company's
stock price so let's pretend best Coffey company is about to report its q1 earnings the company's
current expectation is that it's going to grow its Revenue about 10% to $110 million and that its
earnings per share will also grow 10% to A110 this
is kind of like a parents placing expectations
on their kids that they're going to get A's and B's on their report card so these expectations are
incredibly important to know now once we know the expectations that brings us to step two which is
actually monitoring the company's results now once
這有點像父母對孩子設定期望，希望他們在成績單上拿到 A 和 B。因此，了解這些預期非常重要。一旦我們知道了預期，就進入了第二步：實際監控公司的業績。
02:39
a company actually reports its earnings the next
step is to compare the company's key numbers to wall Street's expectations now to find a company's
actual earnings results you can go directly to its investor relations page and click on the company's
results or you can use an aggregator like fin chat
and track the company's results and slides right
in there now where the numbers are located in each company's report changes from company to company
sometimes these numbers are right at the top of the report other times they're hidden down below
once you have these results in hand the next step
is to do a simple comparison if the company's
key numbers namely revenue and earnings per share exceed expectation that's a great sign
that can often cause the stock price to rise if the numbers simply meet or were worse below
wall Street's expectations that's a bad sign and
this can cause the company's stock price to fall
sometimes drastically to go back to our report card analogy imagine a company expects their son
or daughter to get A's and B's on their report card and then they they actually bring out a
home report card that is full of A's and A's
可能導致公司股價下跌，有時甚至是暴跌。回到我們的成績單類比，想像一家公司預期他們的兒子女兒在成績單上拿到 A 和 B，結果他們帶回家的成績單全是 A 和 A+，
03:32
pluses they would be ecstatic conversely if they
were expected to get A's and B's on their report card and their actual report card was filled with
c's and D's they would be extremely disappointed now those headline numbers are certainly very
important when analyzing a company's earnings
他們會欣喜若狂。相反地，如果預期拿到 A 和 B，但實際成績單上全是 C 和 D，他們會極度失望。當然，那些 headline 數字在分析公司財報時非常重要，
03:45
report however the company also usually releases
other information related to key metrics W to the company business updates and product results
so for our pretend company let's pretend that their actual q1 Revenue came in at 111 million and
their actual earnings per share came at a dollar
11 both figures grew 11% year-over-year now that
compared very favorable to the 10% growth rate that was expected for Revenue earnings per share
so in this case we would say that best coffee company beat its earnings expectations that brings
us to step three which is looking ahead this is
often the step that most confuses stock market
investors some companies hold conference calls with investors where the management team provides
additional commentary about what happen during the quarter and what they expect to happen in the
quarter ahead some management teams even offer
their investors guidance where they predict
how much revenue or profits they're going to generate in the next quarter or year ahead now
this commentary and future guidance can have a massive impact on how Wall Street treats the
report moreover those same analysts are not
only tracking what they expect the company to
do this quarter they're usually forecasting many years ahead including the upcoming quarter
the upcoming year and in many cases future year periods for example for Best Coffee Company let's
pretend that in the next quarter That Wall Street
was expecting 11% growth in revenue and 11% growth
in earnings per share to a111 these are the new expectations that the company is going to have
to meet and exceed in the next quarterly period
however let's pretend that best coffee company
issued guidance for that next quarter that only called for 10% growth in revenue and 10% growth
in earnings per share that would actually compare
unfavorable to the results That Wall Street had
baked into the company's next earnings report now as I hope I've shown so far if you want to
analyze a company's earnings it's critical that you know how to find and read an income statement
but income statements can be very confusing
and not all companies lay them out the same way to
make things easier to understand I created a free ebook that has a company's income statement along
with all of the synonyms that a company might use when creating it this same ebook has synonyms
for all three of a company's financial report
if you want a free copy of this ebook just
visit long-term mindset.
如果你想要這本電子書的免費副本，只需造訪 long-term mindset。
05:47
CFS ebook or click the link in the video description so now that
we have best Coffey company earnings results let's do a quick comparison for the company's
actual q1 results we would say that the company
successfully beat earnings providing 111 million
in Revenue when it was only expected to generate 110 million however for the company's forward
guidance we would say that the company missed the consensus estimate it only forecasted 10%
Revenue growth when Wall Street really wanted
11% now even though best copy company's actual
results beat earnings expectations if this was a real company its stock would probably decline
in Wake of this earnings report that's because markets are forward-looking and stock prices
are impacted more by what's expected to happen
in the near future than what actually happened in
the recent past this is exactly what caused nce stock to plunge 18% in 2024 on the company's
earnings call with investors the management team let investors know that revenue is actually
going to decline over the coming year that
市場具有前瞻性，股價受未來預期發生的事情影響，大於受近期過去實際發生的事情影響。這正是導致 NCE 股票在 2024 年財報電話會議中暴跌 18% 的原因。管理層
06:38
downbeat forecast caused wal Street to sell off
the stock so drastically okay now that you know how to analyze a company's earnings report let's
go through these three steps using meta's first quarter earnings report in 2024 as an example so
in q1 of 2024 Wall Street was expecting that meta
讓投資者知道，營收在未來一年實際上將會下滑，這個悲觀的預測導致華爾街大幅拋售該股票。好的，既然你知道了如何分析一家公司的財報，讓我們以 Meta 2024 年第一季財報為例，來走一遍這三個步驟。在 2024 年第一季，華爾街預期 Meta
06:55
was going to grow its Revenue by 26% to $ 36.2
billion and that it's earnings per share were going to come in at $4.3 I pulled these numbers
from finat so these were the numbers that Wall
Street was expecting meta to report in q1 of 2024
now when the company actually reported earnings its Revenue actually grew 27% to$ 36.5 billion
and its earnings per share came in at $4.7 which
grew 114% so as you can see both of these figures
were above wall Street's expectations which was a very good sign for investors so in regards to
this earnings report we would say say that meta
成長了 114%。所以如你所見，這兩個數字都高於華爾街的預期，對投資者來說這是一個非常好的訊號。因此，關於這份財報，我們會說 Meta
07:30
exceeded expectations in q1 of 2024 however as I
talked about earlier in this video the company's future guidance actually matters tremendously
when analyzing earnings report so let's see how
the company did there well if we look at the
consensus estimates Walsh was expecting the company to grow its Revenue by 20% in Q2 of 2024
$ 38.3 billion and produce $426 in earnings per
share which would be growth of 43% if we pull
up the company's earnings report we see that it actually issued second quarter 2024 Revenue
guidance be the range of 36.5 to $39 billion now
when management teams issue a range of guidance
the common thing to do is to take the middle of those numbers and use that as your estimate so the
midpoint of that range indicates that Facebook's management team was guiding for 37.75 billion in
Revenue in Q2 of 2024 now that only represents
growth of 18% moreover if you read the rest of the
guidance they actually don't issue guidance on an earnings per share basis now in this case even
though meta exceeded its earnings expect ations for the quarter since its guidance was below
what Wall Street was expecting Wall Street sold
18% 的成長。此外，如果你閱讀其餘的指引，他們實際上並未發布每股盈餘的指引。在這種情況下，即使 Meta 超越了本季的盈餘預期，但由於其指引低於華爾街的預期，華爾街便
08:34
off its stock by 12% in the wake of this report
which wiped away $130 billion in market value there is a lot of pressure on management teams to
exceed their key figures when they're reporting earnings both in the current period as well as
the next period and company stocks can sometimes
股價因此下跌12%，這份報告導致其市值蒸發1300億美元
08:48
be punished severely if the company fails to
meet wall Street's expectations now importantly everything that we've covered so far really only
matters if you're trying to gain the company's earning support and trade on it from quarter
to quarter period now how should you view these
若未能滿足華爾街預期，可能會遭到嚴厲懲罰
09:01
reports if you're a long-term investor should you
fret about a company meeting or exceeding its Ru and earnings per share guidance we don't think so
instead if you're an investor we think there's a key question that you need to keep in mind when
you're analyzing earnings report and that is this
財報呢？你是否應該擔心一家公司是否達到或超越其
09:14
is the core thesis for owning that company still
intact that is the overriding question that you should be trying to answer when you're looking
at a company's earnings report now to answer that question the revenue and the earnings certainly
matter but there's a number of other things that
持有該公司的核心論點是否仍然成立
09:27
you should focus on too that incl in the company's
actual growth rate company's key reporting metrics you should be looking for new opportunities that
are on the horizon new threats that are on the horizon direction of the company's moat and most
importantly from stock perspective the company's
你也應該關注，包括公司的
09:41
valuation if you've seen any of the earnings
review that we do on this channel you know that we end each earnings report with a overview of the
company's thesis we give you the four key metrics that we're going to be watching when the company
analyzes earnings the direction of the company's
估值
09:54
mode and whether or not we think the thesis is on
track if the company's thesis is on track the next step is to value the company using whatever
valuation metric makes the most sense given where the company is on the business growth
cycle now if that kind of analysis interests
以及我們是否認為論點正在按軌道進行
10:07
you subscribe to our Channel because we cover
the earnings reports of about 15 to 20 company stocks now I hope that this video was useful if
it was let us know in the comments section below and if you want to keep on learning for here
I highly recommend you watch this video next
請訂閱我們的頻道，因為我們涵蓋約15至20家
How To Read An Earnings Report (with ZERO experience)
