00:00
I like to know as much as I can about the person that's running it and how they think about the business and what's
我希望能盡可能了解經營者是誰、他們如何看待這門生意，以及生意的真實狀況。
00:06
really going on the business.
我希望能有一份報告，內容就像我擁有一家公司一半股權，但離開了一年，而擁有另一半股權的合夥人在我回來時，告訴我過去一年發生了什麼事，以及他預見未來會發生什麼事。
00:09
And I would like to have a report that would be identical uh to what if I owned half
這是 Warren Buffett 解釋為什麼閱讀年報對好的投資至關重要。
00:12
of a company but was away for a year and I had a partner who owned the other half what when I came back that he would tell
但 Buffett 說大多數投資人不讀年報，這是個巨大的錯誤。
00:18
me about what had taken place during the past year and what he foresaw coming up.
嗨，我是 Brian Faraldi。
00:22
That's Warren Buffett explaining why reading annual reports is essential to good investing.
我是一名財務教育工作者，研究 Buffett 超過 20 年，我自己也讀過數百份年報。
00:27
But Buffett said that most investors don't read annual reports, which is a massive mistake.
在這支影片中，我會向你展示 Warren Buffett 在閱讀年報時究竟尋找什麼，以及如何在他的投資清單指引下找到關鍵資訊。
00:31
Hey, I'm Brian Faraldi.
看完這支影片，你將能用和 Buffett 相同的方式分析年報。
00:33
I'm a financial educator that's been studying Buffett for more than 20 years, and I've read
以下是 Warren Buffett 的投資清單。
00:36
hundreds of annual reports myself.
請注意它分成三個主要部分。
00:40
In this video, I'll show you exactly what Warren Buffett looks for when he's
第一是「企業」部分。
00:41
reading annual reports, and where to find the key information using his investing checklist as a guide.
第二是「管理階層」部分。
00:48
At the end of this video, you'll be able to analyze an annual report the same way
第三是「財務」部分。
00:51
that Buffett does.
閱讀年報能幫助我們找到填寫這份清單所需的 90% 資訊。
00:53
So, here's Warren Buffett's investing checklist.
所以，這是華倫・巴菲特的投資檢查清單。
00:56
Notice that it's broken out into three main sections.
請注意，它分為三個主要部分。
00:58
First is the business section.
第一部分是企業（business）部分。
01:00
Second is the management section.
第二部分是管理（management）部分。
01:03
And third is the financial section.
第三部分是財務（financial）部分。
01:05
Reading an annual report can help us to find 90% of the information that we need to fill
閱讀年報能幫助我們找到填寫這份清單所需的 90% 資訊。
01:08
in this checklist.
在這份檢查清單中。
01:10
So let's run through this checklist using Moody's annual report as an example, which is one of
那麼讓我們以穆迪（Moody's）的年報為例，來跑一遍這份檢查清單，這是巴菲特有史以來
01:15
Buffett's favorite companies of all time.
最喜歡的公司之一。
01:17
Now after pulling up the annual report, the first thing we need to do is to scroll down to the index section.
打開年報後，我們首先要做的是向下滾動到索引部分。
01:22
Then we're going to go to item one, the business overview, and read everything about the company.
然後我們將前往「業務概況」（Item 1）這一點，並閱讀關於該公司的一切資訊。
01:28
Now, while reading, Buffett wants to make sure he understands exactly how the company
在閱讀時，巴菲特希望確保他完全理解這家公司的
01:32
works. Buffett asks himself questions like, "Is this business understandable?
運作方式。巴菲特會自問一些問題，例如：「這門生意是否容易理解？
01:37
How is the money made?
它是如何賺錢的？
01:39
Does the company have good long-term growth prospects?
這家公司是否有良好的長期成長前景？
01:41
And is there a big moat around the business?" The answers to these questions should be obvious and
這門生意周圍是否有巨大的護城河？」這些問題的答案應該要顯而易見，並且
01:46
explained in plain English.
用淺顯的英文解釋清楚。
01:49
Now, after we've read the business sect, we can actually fill in about onethird of
在我們閱讀完業務章節後，我們實際上可以填寫大約三分之一的
01:52
Warren Buffett's investing checklist.
沃倫·巴菲特投資檢查清單。
01:57
If Buffett can't easily answer all of these basic questions, Buffett has no problem
如果巴菲特無法輕易回答所有這些基本問題，他會毫不猶豫地
01:59
immediately putting that company into his two hard pile, which is actually a real thing, and he simply moves on to
立即將該公司放入他的「兩難堆」（two hard pile）中——這是真實存在的做法，然後他會直接轉向
02:07
the next idea.
下一個想法。
02:08
Uh, by the way, if you want a free copy of Warren Buffett's checklist that I'm going to be using
呃，順帶一提，如果你想要一份我在這支影片中將會使用的
02:11
throughout this video, just visit longtermmindset.co/buffett or click the link in the video
沃倫·巴菲特檢查清單的免費副本，只需造訪 longtermmindset.co/buffett 或點擊影片
02:16
description.
描述中的連結。
02:18
Now, next, Buffett jumps to section 1A or the risk factor section of the annual report.
接下來，巴菲特會跳到年報的第 1A 部分或風險因素章節。
02:23
This is a long list of everything that could possibly go wrong with the business.
這是一份關於該企業所有可能出錯的長串清單。
02:27
Now, Buffett keeps an eye out for key risks like revenue concentration, pricing risks,
巴菲特特別留意關鍵風險，例如營收過於集中、定價風險、
02:31
regulatory risk, and risk related to competition.
監管風險以及與競爭相關的風險。
02:34
Now, Buffett doesn't avoid all risk.
巴菲特並非避開所有風險。
02:36
He's just making sure he understands all of the risk that he would be assuming as a potential
他只是確保自己完全理解，身為潛在股東及企業所有者將承擔的
02:41
shareholder and owner of the business.
所有風險。
02:42
Now, after reading the risk section, we can fill in even more of Buffett's investing checklist.
在讀完風險章節後，我們可以填寫更多巴菲特的投資檢查清單。
02:49
Now, step three is to read the company's letter to shareholders.
第三步是閱讀致股東書。
02:52
Now, while this is technically not part of the 10K, and many companies do not have a shareholder
儘管這在技術上不屬於 10-K 報告的一部分，且許多公司並未出具股東信，
02:57
letter, those that do offer pure gold.
但那些有出具的公司，其內容堪稱純金。
03:00
Now, Moody's just so happens to have not one but two shareholder letters.
穆迪公司（Moody's）恰好不僅有一封，而是兩封股東信。
03:05
One is from the chairman of the board and one is from the CEO.
一封來自董事長，另一封則來自執行長。
03:08
Now, as Buffett's reading through these letters, he's looking for signs of honesty, clarity,
巴菲特在閱讀這些信件時，會尋找作者展現出的誠實、清晰度、
03:12
and accountability from whoever wrote the letter.
以及問責精神的跡象。
03:15
If the CEO sounds like a politician or an overpromotional salesman, that's a big red flag, and he
如果執行長聽起來像政客或過度誇大的推銷員，那就是一個嚴重的警訊，他會
03:20
moves on. But now, we can have even more of Buffett's investing checklist filled in.
直接放棄。但現在，我們可以填寫更多巴菲特的投資檢查清單。
03:25
Now, step four is to read item seven, which is called management's discussion analysis of financial
第四步是完整閱讀第七項，即「管理階層對財務狀況與經營成果的討論與分析」，
03:30
conditions and results of operations, or simply MDNA in its entirety.
或簡稱為 MD&A。
03:36
This is where the management team explains not only what is happening with the
在這裡，管理團隊不僅解釋了
03:38
business, but why things are happening.
企業發生了什麼事，還說明了背後的原因。
03:40
And Buffett reads this section like a detective and he wants to know, does the company have a consistent operating
巴菲特像偵探一樣閱讀這部分，他想知道，這家公司是否有穩定的營運歷史？
03:46
history? Are they owning the results or are they blaming outside forces?
他們是為成果負責，還是將問題歸咎於外部因素？
03:52
Are they long-term thinkers and planners or are they more short-term focused?
他們是著眼於長期的思考者與規劃者，還是更注重短期利益？
03:54
Reading the MDNA section in its entirety can help Buffett answer these questions and get a far better feel for how
完整閱讀 MDNA（管理層討論與分析）章節，能幫助巴菲特回答這些問題，並更深入地了解管理層如何思考和經營業務。
04:00
management thinks and runs the business.
閱讀 MDNA 章節後，我們的檢查清單已填寫了大部分。
04:02
After reading the MDNA section, we have much more of our checklist filled in.
接下來，是進入第八項，也就是展示公司財務報表的部分。
04:06
Now, the next step is to move on to item number eight, which shows the company's financial statements.
這包括公司的損益表、資產負債表和現金流量表。
04:12
This includes the company's income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.
巴菲特會非常仔細地檢視這三份報表，觀察營收、利潤、現金、負債和現金流。
04:17
Now, Buffett examines all three of these statements very closely, looking at
重要的是，他也會閱讀所有附註章節，這些附註可能會揭露與會計手法、訴訟、租賃相關的細節，以及所有埋藏在年報中的資訊。
04:20
revenue margins profits cash debt and cash flow.
重點是，巴菲特不僅僅看單一年度的數據。
04:26
Importantly, he also reads all of the footnote sections which can reveal details related to accounting
他實際上是在尋找趨勢。
04:30
tricks, lawsuits, leases, and all the stuff that gets buried in the annual report.
透過觀察趨勢，他能判斷一家公司是否具備定價權、良好的股東權益報酬率，以及低資本需求。
04:35
Now, importantly, Buffett's not looking at just one year of data.
不過，年報有時會有不足之處。
04:41
He's actually hunting for trends.
因為年報通常只顯示兩到三年的數據。
04:42
By looking at trends, he can learn if a company has pricing power, good returns on equity,
這就是為什麼我更喜歡使用 fiscal.ai 來檢查公司的數字，它能讓我查看超過 10 年的財務數據，並為我完成所有的財務比率分析。
04:46
and low capital needs.
以及低資本需求。
04:49
Now, unfortunately, this is where annual reports can fall short.
不過，遺憾的是，年報在這方面可能會有所不足。
04:52
See, annual reports typically only show two to three years worth of data.
因為年報通常只顯示兩到三年的數據。
04:56
That's why I prefer to check the numbers of a company using fiscal.ai, which allows me to view 10
這就是為什麼我更喜歡使用 fiscal.ai 來檢查公司的數字，它能讓我查看超過 10 年的財務數據，
05:00
plus years of financial data and have all the financial ratio analysis done for me as well.
並為我完成所有的財務比率分析。
05:06
Plus, I can click on any number and see a chart of how that number has changed over time, which
此外，我可以點擊任何一個數字，查看該數字隨時間變化的圖表，這
05:11
makes it really easy to detect long-term trends.
讓我們能輕鬆察覺長期趨勢。
05:13
And now we have even more of Warren Buffett's checklist filled in.
現在，我們又填好了華倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）檢核清單中的更多內容。
05:17
Now, the next step is to judge the quality of the management team.
接下來，是評估管理團隊品質的步驟。
05:21
Now, by this point, Buffett has already started to form an opinion about management for
此時，巴菲特已經根據他迄今為止的閱讀，開始對管理層形成看法，
05:24
what he's read so far by looking for signs of cander, clear thinking, and a long-term focus.
他尋找誠信（candor）、思緒清晰以及專注於長期的跡象。
05:30
But now, he goes back to the Andrew report and he looks at items 10, 11, and 12 to find more
但他現在會回頭查閱年報，查看第 10、11 和 12 項，
05:35
information about management's background, executive compensation, and stock ownership information.
以尋找更多關於管理層背景、高階主管薪酬和持股資訊的線索。
05:42
But here's the catch.
但關鍵在於：
05:42
Most of what Buffett wants to know about the management team usually isn't found in the annual report.
巴菲特想知道的關於管理團隊的大部分資訊，通常在年報中是找不到的。
05:47
Instead, the annual report usually points to a company's proxy statement, which is a separate document that
相反地，年報通常會指引你去查閱公司的委託書聲明（proxy statement），這是一份單獨的文件，
05:52
details executive pay, stock compensation, and ownership.
詳細記載了高階主管的薪酬、股票補償和持股狀況。
05:56
And that's where Buffett digs in.
這正是巴菲特深入挖掘的地方。
05:57
He looks for compensation structures that reward long-term performance, not just
他尋找的是那種獎勵長期績效，而不僅僅是
06:00
short-term stock bumps.
短期股價飆升的薪酬結構。
06:03
Whether stockbased compensation is properly expensed, which is a topic he's been
他關注股票補償是否被妥善列為費用（這是他多年來
06:05
outspoken on for years, and how much skin in the game management has.
慷慨陳詞的話題），以及管理層是否「有份額在裡面」（skin in the game）。
06:11
He prefers to invest in leaders who are significant shareholders.
他偏好投資於身為大股東的領導者。
06:13
Buffett uses this information to answer questions like, "Do they treat shareholders like
巴菲特利用這些資訊來回答以下問題：「他們是否視股東為
06:17
partners? Are their interests aligned with ours?
夥伴？他們的利益是否與我們一致？」
06:20
And are they rational, disciplined capital allocators?" Buffett from the belie that answering these
他們是否是理性且有紀律的資本配置者？巴菲特相信，回答這些問題是公司分析中最被忽視、卻也最能揭示真相的部分之一。
06:24
questions one of the most overlooked parts of company analysis and yet also one of the most revealing.
一旦我們完成這些資訊，就差不多填完了巴菲特的檢查清單。
06:30
Once we have that information done, we are nearly done filling in Buffett's checklist.
現在，我們來到巴菲特分析的最後一步：把同樣的分析再做一遍，但這次是針對公司的競爭對手。
06:33
Now, that brings us to the final step of Buffett's analysis, which is to do all that analysis again, but this time
巴菲特堅持認為，閱讀所有主要競爭對手的報告，能讓你盡可能深入了解這個產業。
06:39
looking at the company's competitors.
有時候，透過閱讀競爭對手的報告，巴菲特發現該產業中的另一家公司其實是更好的投資標的。
06:40
Buffett insists that reading the reports of all the company's biggest competitors allows you to learn as much about the
透過閱讀這些報告，巴菲特能更清楚地了解利潤率的變化、市占率，以及整體產業正在發生哪些趨勢。
06:46
industry as you possibly can.
以穆迪為例，我們會查看像標普環球（S&P Global）這類主要競爭對手的年報。
06:49
And sometimes by reading the reports of competitors, Buffett realized that
一旦我們讀完主要競爭對手的報告，終於可以勾選巴菲特投資檢查清單上的這一項。
06:51
another company in the industry is actually the better investment.
現在，一旦巴菲特了解這門生意並信任管理團隊，他會提出最後一個問題。
06:55
And by reading those reports, Buffett gets a better sense of how margins are shaken
我願意付多少錢來擁有整家公司？
06:58
out, market share, and what trends are happening in the industry in general.
他根據公司未來的現金流，建立一個粗略的內在價值估算。
07:03
So in Moody's case, we would check out the annual reports of companies like S&P
然後他將這個內在價值與目前的市場價格進行比較。
07:06
Global, which is a major competitor to the company.
Global，該公司的主要競爭對手。
07:09
Now once we've read the reports of the major competitors, we can finally check off the lax box on
當我們閱讀完主要競爭對手的報告後，我們終於可以勾選巴菲特投資檢查清單上的「lax」（寬鬆/休閒）這一項。
07:13
Buffett's investing checklist.
巴菲特的投資檢查清單。
07:16
Now once Buffett understands the business and trusts the management team, he now asks
現在，一旦巴菲特了解這家企業並信任其管理團隊，他會提出
07:19
one final question.
最終一個問題
07:21
What would I pay to own the entire company?
若要收購整家公司，我願意支付多少價格？
07:24
He builds a rough estimate of intrinsic value based on the company's future cash flows.
他會根據公司未來的現金流，粗略估算其內在價值
07:29
And then he compares that intrinsic value to the current market price.
接著，他會將這股內在價值與當前市場價格進行比較
07:31
If the stock is trading below what he thinks the whole business is worth, he's
如果股價低於他認為整家公司的價值，他就
07:34
interested.
會感興趣。
07:35
And if there's a wide gap, he might even buy.
如果差距很大，他甚至會買進。
07:38
If the current market price is above his intrinsic value, Buffett has no problem putting that
如果目前市價高於他的內在價值，巴菲特會毫不猶豫地將該
07:41
company on his watch list and waiting for a better opportunity.
公司列入觀察名單，等待更好的機會。
07:45
Well, thanks for watching this video.
好的，感謝您觀看這支影片。
07:47
I hope you enjoyed it.
希望您喜歡。
07:47
And if you want a free copy of Warren Buffett's checklist, just visit long-termmindset.co/buffet
如果您想要一份 Warren Buffett 的檢查表，請造訪 long-termmindset.co/buffet
07:52
and I'll email you a free copy.
我會透過電子郵件寄給您一份免費副本。
07:55
If you like this video, give it the thumbs up.
如果您喜歡這支影片，請給個讚。
07:56
It really helps us out on YouTube.
這對我們在 YouTube 上的經營非常有幫助。
07:58
And if you want to keep learning for free, there's a 100% chance you'll enjoy
如果您想繼續免費學習，您有 100% 的機率會喜歡
08:00
watching this video next.
接下來觀看的這支影片。
