If you have ever attended a class in finance, you probably recognize the idea that to get higher investment returns, you need to take higher investment risk.
如果你曾上過財務相關課程，你大概會認同這個概念：要獲得較高的投資報酬，就需要承擔較高的投資風險。
00:11
In the Dondo Investor, a book written by Monish Pabrai, you will learn that this is not necessarily the case.
It's about investing only in opportunities where we can achieve the following asymmetry.
這關乎只投資於能達成以下不對稱性的機會。
00:34
Heads, I win.
正面我贏。
00:36
Tails, I don't lose much.
反面我沒什麼損失。
00:39
Let's dive in.
我們開始吧。
00:43
Take away number one, the Dondo Framework.
第一點，Dondo 框架。
00:49
Alright, so how can I achieve this?
那具體要怎麼做呢？
00:51
It sounds too good to be true.
聽起來好得令人難以置信。
00:53
I'm glad you asked.
很高興你問這個問題。
00:55
And no, it's not.
不，其實並非如此。
00:58
Here's the Dondo Framework.
這就是「東渡框架」。
01:01
Nine principles that will guide you in making these heads, I win, tails, I don't lose much, bets.
將引導你進行這些正面我贏、反面我不會賠太多的賭注的九項原則。
01:09
One, focus on buying existing businesses.
首先，聚焦於購買現有的企業。
01:13
The asset class that you'll want to focus on is stocks.
您需要關注的資產類別是股票。
01:17
It's the best performing one over longer timeframes and it is less risky than creating your own startup.
從長期來看，它的表現最為出色，而且風險也比創立自己的新創公司來得低。
01:25
Two, buy simple businesses in industries with slow rate of change.
第二，投資於變動緩慢的產業中的簡單企業。
01:31
According to Warren Buffett, change is the enemy of investments.
巴菲特認為，變化是投資的敵人。
01:37
Will Coca-Cola and McDonald's exist 50 years from now?
可口可樂和麥當勞在五十年後還會存在嗎？
01:41
Well, most likely we will probably have to eat and drink even then.
嗯，就算那時候，我們大概還是得吃喝吧。
01:46
Will Facebook and Netflix exist 50 years from now?
Facebook 和 Netflix 在五十年後還會存在嗎？
01:50
Who knows?
誰知道呢？
01:52
Moreover, you have to narrow your investing down to simple businesses.
此外，你還得將投資範圍縮小至簡單的企業。
01:57
Businesses that you understand.
你能夠理解的企業。
02:00
Otherwise, you are speculating, not investing.
否則，你只是在投機，而非投資。
02:05
Three, buy distressed businesses in distressed industries.
第三，買進處於困境產業中的困境企業。
02:10
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
當他人貪婪時恐懼，當他人恐懼時貪婪。
02:16
Four, buy businesses with a durable competitive advantage.
四、購買具有持久競爭優勢的企業。
02:22
Beware of businesses that don't possess a competitive advantage over other actors within the same industry.
小心那些在同業中缺乏競爭優勢的企業。
02:29
Companies that do not fulfill this may lose their profits rapidly, which is a terrible situation for you as the stock owner.
未能達成此條件的公司，其獲利可能迅速下滑，對身為股東的你來說，這是非常糟糕的情況。
02:38
Five, bet heavily when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.
第五，當勝算極大時，就該重押出擊。
02:44
Don't be afraid to bet big when you find the right opportunities.
當你發現合適的機會時，不必害怕大膽押注。
02:50
The stock market is efficient, but only for most of the time.
股市是有效率的，但僅限於大多數時候。
02:55
Bet big when you have the odds.
手握勝算時就重押出擊。
02:58
The rest of the time, you should sit still.
其餘時間，你應該按兵不動。
03:01
Six, focus on arbitrage.
第六，專注於套利。
03:05
An arbitrage is a situation in which there is a risk-free profit in the market after transaction costs.
套利指的是一種情況，在扣除交易成本之後，市場上存在著一種無風險的利潤。
03:13
This is done on steroids.
這件事被徹底強化了。
03:16
It's heads I win, tails I break even or win.
正面我贏，反面我不輸或贏。
03:21
Uncommon but still possible.
罕見但仍有可能。
03:25
Seven, buy businesses with a big discount to their underlying value.
第七，以大幅低於其內在價值的價格買進企業。
03:31
We've talked about this many times before.
這件事我們已經討論過很多次了。
03:33
Have a look at my summary of the Intelligent Investor, for instance.
例如，可以參考我對《智慧型股票手》的摘要。
03:38
It's Benjamin Graham's margin of safety that Munish Pabrai is referring to here.
穆尼什·帕伯萊在此所指的，正是班傑明·葛拉漢的安全邊際概念。
03:43
Don't buy anything in the market without this margin.
沒有這個安全邊際，就不要在市場上買進任何東西。
03:48
There's always a risk that you're wrong.
你始終有可能出錯。
03:50
Factor this in before buying.
在買進之前，請將這點納入考量。
03:54
Eight, look for low risk, high uncertainty businesses.
第八，尋找低風險、高不確定性的企業。
03:59
Risk and uncertainty are not the same thing.
風險與不確定性並非同一回事。
04:04
An investment can have a wide range of possible future outcomes, but the risk of taking a large permanent loss, investing in such opportunities may still be very low.
一項投資可能有各種不同的未來結果，但投資這類機會時，發生大幅永久性損失的風險仍然可能很低。
04:15
More on this later.
這部分稍後再深入探討。
04:18
Nine, it's better to be a copycat than an inventor.
第九，與其當發明家，不如當模仿者。
04:23
Munish Pabrai argues that it's better to invest in the copycats rather than the inventors.
慕尼許・普拉巴吉主張，與其投資發明者，不如投資模仿者。
04:30
Buying companies that are implementing previously proven business models can be very profitable, especially if they are better at executing than the competitors.
Takeaway number two, investing is all about the odds.
第二點，投資完全就是機率的遊戲。
04:50
Imagine that you have 25 bucks and that you're asked to place a bet on a coin flip, with the following probabilities and payouts.
想像你手上有 25 元，現在要你押注一次拋硬幣，並根據以下機率與賠率來下注。
05:00
Heads, probability, 60%.
正面，機率為 60%。
05:03
Payout, doubling your bet.
賠率，下注金額翻倍。
05:06
Tails, probability, 40%.
反面，機率為 40%。
05:09
Payout, losing your bet.
賠率，輸掉你的賭注。
05:13
How much would you be willing to wager of your total 25 bucks on this coin flip?
面對這枚硬幣的拋擲，你願意從你總共 25 元中拿出多少錢來賭？
05:23
I mentioned earlier that you must be willing to bet big when great opportunities present themselves.
我之前提過，當大好機會出現時，你必須敢於下重注。
05:30
This is such a case.
這就是那種情況。
05:33
As Charlie Munger expresses it, we look for the horse with one chance in two of winning which pays you three to one.
查理・蒙格是這樣說的：我們尋找勝率五成，但賠率高達三比一的馬。
05:42
You're looking for a mispriced gamble.
你在尋找一檔被錯誤定價的賭注。
05:45
That's what investing is.
這就是投資的本質。
05:49
But how much should you bet?
但你該下多少注？
05:51
Clearly, you cannot risk your whole account on this coin flip, as there's a solid 40% chance of losing it all.
顯然，你不能把整個帳戶押在這場拋硬幣上，因為有整整四成的機率會全部輸光。
05:59
If you repeat that with multiple bets like this, you are pretty much guaranteed to go broke at some point.
如果你重複進行多次這樣的下注，你幾乎肯定會在某個時間點破產。
06:07
An interesting study was made with a coin like this where participants were asked to bet for 30 minutes, being able to place approximately 300 bets in total.
有一項針對這類硬幣進行的有趣研究，研究中要求參與者下注三十分鐘，總共可以下注約三百次。
06:17
Amazingly, as many as 28% of them went bust, and a staggering 66% decided to bet on tails at some point during the experiment.
Luckily, you won't be one of them after this takeaway.
幸好，在聽完這份心得之後，你不會成為他們中的一員。
06:33
As given the odds of an investment, there is an optimal amount to bet, and this can be calculated using the Kelly formula.
既然投資的勝率已知，就有一個最適的下注金額，而這個金額可以利用凱利公式計算出來。
06:42
How much did you guess before?
你剛剛猜測的金額是多少？
06:45
Well, according to Kelly, the answer is 20% of your total account during each flip, or $5 for the first bet.
嗯，根據凱利公式，答案是每次下注總資金的20%，或者第一次下注5美元。
06:56
The Kelly formula is calculated using the following equation.
凱利公式是使用以下方程式來計算的。
07:00
Try Google, Kelly criterion calculator multiple outcomes, if you want to learn more and do some testing.
如果你想了解更多並進行測試，可以試著用 Google 搜尋「凱利公式計算器 多重結果」。
07:07
I did a Monte Carlo simulation of this experiment, but I used 20 tosses instead of 300.
我對這個實驗做了蒙地卡羅模擬，但我用了 20 次拋擲，而不是 300 次。
07:14
When I simulated that 100 people were participating and betting 20% of their account in each flip, these were the results.
當我模擬 100 人參與，並在每次翻轉中下注其帳戶的 20% 時，得到的結果如下。
07:24
Clearly, using the betting size suggested by the Kelly formula is not for the faint of heart.
顯然，採用凱利公式建議的下注比例，並非膽小者能承受的。
07:31
The worst performing of the 100 participants had an account size of just $3 at the end of the experiment.
在 100 位參與者中，表現最差的人在實驗結束時，帳戶餘額僅剩 3 美元。
07:41
I imagine that most investors would probably have left the markets altogether, with such a downswing.
我想，在如此劇烈的市場波動下，大多數投資人可能早就完全退出市場了。
07:47
Therefore, it's common practice to use a fraction Kelly, perhaps decide to bet just 25% of what Kelly suggests.
因此，常見的做法是採用部分凱利策略，或許只下注凱利公式建議金額的 25%。
08:00
Takeaway number 3, DCF analysis.
重點三：現金流量折現分析。
08:05
Okay, so using the Kelly formula sounds simple enough, in theory.
好的，那麼理論上，使用凱利公式聽起來似乎很簡單。
08:11
But how do you know what the payout is when that is not given?
可是當賠率沒有給定時，你要怎麼知道實際的賠率是多少？
08:15
I'm sorry to tell you this, but there is no easy way.
很抱歉告訴你，但這件事沒有捷徑。
08:19
Deciding the intrinsic value, which could be compared to the potential payout of a company, is not an exact science and it involves a lot of guesswork.
If we could invest in a business that will definitely generate $1,000 in cash flow per year, for the next ten years, it would be valued at $7,700, according to DCF analysis, using 5%.
But investing in the stock market never comes with such a guarantee of cash flows.
然而，投資股市從來不附帶這種現金流的保證。
09:42
And therefore, most investors require more than $1,050 next year.
因此，大多數投資人會要求明年拿到超過一千零五十元。
09:47
For $1,000 invested in a business today.
若今天投資一萬元在某個事業上
09:50
Say that perhaps $1,100 is sufficient.
或許一千一百元就足夠了。
09:55
If we think that, we use a 10% discount rate instead.
如果我們這樣想，就會改用 10% 的折現率。
10:00
The same business, as mentioned before, would now be worth just $6,100 in today's value.
根據之前的說明，這家相同的企業，以今日的價值來看，現在僅值 6,100 元。
10:08
You probably understand why you must only focus on simple businesses now.
你現在大概明白，為什麼你必須只專注於簡單的企業了。
10:14
Estimating future cash flows is difficult enough as it is.
預估未來現金流本身就已經夠難了。
10:18
Doing it for a business in a complicated industry that you do not understand is impossible.
對你不了解的複雜產業中的企業進行預估，根本是不可能的任務。
10:25
A helpful guideline is to never estimate a cash flow more than ten years into the future.
一條有用的準則是，永遠不要預估超過十年後的現金流。
10:31
Also, if you want to estimate a selling price in year 10, never use a higher PE ratio than 15.
另外，如果你想預估第十年的賣出價格，本益比永遠不要用超過15倍。
10:43
Takeaway number four, look for low risk, high uncertainty businesses.
第四點，尋找低風險、高不確定性的企業。
10:50
Would you like to invest in this?
你願意投資這個嗎？
10:52
Ten percent chance of returning 1,000%.
有10%的機率能獲得1000%的報酬。
10:54
Four percent chance of returning 300%.
有4%的機率能獲得300%的報酬。
10:57
Four percent chance of returning minus 20%.
有4%的機率會虧損20%。
11:00
Ten percent chance of returning minus 100%.
有 10% 的機率會賠光全部本金。
11:08
You should want to.
你應該想要這樣做。
11:09
And according to Kelly, you should bet big.
根據凱利準則，你應該押上大筆賭注。
11:13
75% of your account would be optimal.
將帳戶的 75% 投入會是最理想的選擇。
11:17
However, many investors would not take this bet when faced with its shrouded version in this stock market.
然而，面對股市中這種隱晦不明的版本，許多投資人並不願意向此下注。
11:24
Why?
為什麼？
11:26
Because of uncertainty.
因為充滿變數。
11:30
Monish Pabrais states that Wall Street sometimes gets confused between risk and uncertainty, and you can profit handsomely from that confusion.
莫尼什・帕伯萊指出，華爾街有時會混淆風險與不確定性，而投資人正可從這種混淆中獲取豐厚利潤。
11:41
What you should avoid in this stock market is not uncertainty or volatility.
在股票市場中，你不該避免的是不確定性或波動性。
11:46
What you should avoid is a large permanent loss, or a streak of permanent losses that is enough to take you out of the investing game.
你真正該避免的，是巨大的永久性虧損，或是一連串足以讓你被迫退出投資市場的永久性虧損。
11:54
Wall Street loves low risk and low uncertainty, and therefore such stocks can almost never be found at bargain prices.
華爾街鍾愛低風險與低不確定性，因此這類股票幾乎不可能以便宜的價格找到。
12:03
What they want to see is something like this.
他們想看到的，是像這樣的東西。
12:06
90% chance of returning 10%.
90% 的機率可以賺到 10%。
12:09
9% chance of returning 100%.
9% 的機率可以賺到 100%。
12:12
1% chance of returning minus 100%.
1% 的機率會虧損 100%。
12:16
But they would shy away from the opportunity presented before, because of its higher volatility.
但他們會因為波動性較高，而對眼前這個機會望之卻步。
12:24
Calculate a DCF for different scenarios, perhaps an aggressive, a standard, and a conservative estimate for the future of the business that you want to invest in.
針對你想投資的企業未來，進行不同情境的現金流量折現分析，或許可以包含樂觀、標準與保守三種估算。
12:35
Assign probabilities to each outcome.
為每個結果分配機率。
12:38
Don't be afraid to bet big if the California suggests it, even if the uncertainty is high.
即便不確定性很高，若加州指標顯示可行，就別害怕大手筆投資。
12:49
5.
5.
12:50
The art of selling Making an investment is just half of the battle.
掌握賣出的藝術：做出投資只是成功的一半。
12:57
Having an exit plan is just as important, and you should have one before you go into an investment.
擬定出場策略同樣重要，您應該在投入資金之前就先規劃好。
13:03
Here's Munish Pabrai's most important rule regarding selling.
以下是蒙尼許．帕布拉伊（Munish Pabrai）關於賣出的最重要法則。
13:08
Any stock that you buy cannot be sold at a loss within two to three years of buying it, unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that the current intrinsic value is less than the price that the market is offering.
