If you have ever attended a class in finance, you probably recognize the idea that to get higher investment returns, you need to take higher investment risk.
如果你曾經上過財經課程，你可能認識到這個觀念：要獲得更高的投資回報，你需要承擔更高的投資風險。
00:11
In The Dondo Investor, a book written by Monish Pabrai, you will learn that this is not necessarily the case.
It's about investing only in opportunities where we can achieve the following asymmetry.
它關於只投資於那些我們能夠實現以下非對稱性的機會。
00:34
Heads, I win.
正面，我贏。
00:36
Tails, I don't lose much.
反面，我不會損失太多。
00:39
Let's dive in.
讓我們深入探討。
00:43
Take away number one, the Dondo Framework.
第一個要點，Dondo 框架。
00:49
Alright, so how can I achieve this?
好的，那我如何才能實現這一點呢？
00:51
It sounds too good to be true.
聽起來好得難以置信。
00:53
I'm glad you asked.
很高興你問了。
00:55
And no, it's not.
不，這不是。
00:58
Here's the Dondo Framework.
這是 Dondo 框架。
01:01
Nine principles that will guide you in making these heads, I win, tails, I don't lose much, bets.
九個原則將指導你進行這些「正面，我贏；反面，我不會損失太多」的投資。
01:09
One, focus on buying existing businesses.
第一，專注於購買現有的企業。
01:13
The asset class that you'll want to focus on is stocks.
你想要專注的資產類別是股票。
01:17
It's the best performing one over longer timeframes and it is less risky than creating your own startup.
它是長期表現最好的資產類別，而且比創辦自己的初創公司風險更低。
01:25
Two, buy simple businesses in industries with a slow rate of change.
第二，購買在變化緩慢的行業中的簡單企業。
01:31
According to Warren Buffett, change is the enemy of investments.
根據沃倫·巴菲特的說法，變化是投資的敵人。
01:37
Will Coca-Cola and McDonald's exist 50 years from now?
可口可樂和麥當勞50年後還會存在嗎？
01:41
Well, most likely we will probably have to eat and drink even then.
好的，很可能我們即使到那時還是要吃要喝。
01:46
Will Facebook and Netflix exist 50 years from now?
Facebook和Netflix50年後還會存在嗎？
01:50
Who knows?
誰知道呢？
01:52
Moreover, you have to narrow your investing down to simple businesses.
而且，你必須將投資範圍縮小到簡單的企業。
01:57
Businesses that you understand.
你能理解的企業。
02:00
Otherwise, you are speculating, not investing.
否則，你是在投機，而不是投資。
02:05
Three, buy distressed businesses in distressed industries.
第三，在困境中的行業中購買困境中的企業。
02:10
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
在別人貪婪時恐懼，在別人恐懼時貪婪。
02:16
Four, buy businesses with a durable competitive advantage.
第四，購買擁有持久競爭優勢的企業。
02:22
Beware of businesses that don't possess a competitive advantage over other actors within the same industry.
當心那些在同行業中沒有競爭優勢的企業。
02:29
Companies that do not fulfill this may lose their profits rapidly, which is a terrible situation for you as the stock owner.
不符合這一條件的公司可能會迅速失去利潤，這對你這個股東來說是一個可怕的情況。
02:38
Five, bet heavily when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.
第五，當勝算對你極其有利時，重注下注。
02:44
Don't be afraid to bet big when you find the right opportunities.
當你找到正確的機會時，不要害怕大舉下注。
02:50
The stock market is efficient, but only for most of the time.
股票市場是有效的，但只是在大部分時間。
02:55
Bet big when you have the odds.
當你有勝算時，大舉下注。
02:58
The rest of the time, you should sit still.
其餘時間，你應該靜觀其變。
03:01
Six, focus on arbitrage.
第六，專注於套利。
03:05
An arbitrage is a situation in which there is a risk-free profit in the market after transaction costs.
套利是指在交易成本之後，市場中存在無風險利潤的情況。
03:13
This is done on steroids.
這是在高風險下進行的。
03:16
It's heads I win, tails I break even or win.
正面我贏，反面我打平或贏。
03:21
Uncommon but still possible.
不常見但仍有可能。
03:25
Seven, buy businesses with a big discount to their underlying value.
第七，購買相對其內在價值有大幅折扣的企業。
03:31
We've talked about this many times before.
我們之前已多次討論過這點。
03:33
Have a look at my summary of The Intelligent Investor, for instance.
例如，可以參考我對《聰明的投資者》的總結。
03:38
It's Benjamin Graham's margin of safety that Monish Pabrai is referring to here.
Monish Pabrai 這裡指的是本傑明·格雷厄姆的安全邊際。
03:43
Don't buy anything in the market without this margin.
沒有這個安全邊際，不要買任何市場上的東西。
03:48
There's always a risk that you're wrong.
總是有你錯的風險。
03:50
Factor this in before buying.
在購買前要考慮這點。
03:54
Eight, look for low risk, high uncertainty businesses.
第八，尋找低風險、高不確定性的企業。
03:59
Risk and uncertainty are not the same thing.
風險和不確定性不是同一件事。
04:04
An investment can have a wide range of possible future outcomes, but the risk of taking a large permanent loss, investing in such opportunities may still be very low.
一項投資可能有廣泛的未來結果，但投資於此類機會仍可能有非常低的永久性重大損失風險。
04:15
More on this later.
稍後會更詳細討論這點。
04:18
Nine, it's better to be a copycat than an inventor.
第九，做模仿者比做發明者更好。
04:23
Monish Pabrai argues that it's better to invest in the copycats rather than the inventors.
Monish Pabrai 認為投資模仿者比投資發明者更好。
04:30
Buying companies that are implementing previously proven business models can be very profitable, especially if they are better at executing than the competitors.
購買實施已被證明的商業模式的公司可能非常有利可圖，特別是如果它們在執行上比競爭對手更出色的話。
04:45
Takeaway number two, investing is all about the odds.
第二個要點，投資全是關於概率的。
04:50
Imagine that you have 25 bucks and that you're asked to place a bet on a coin flip, with the following probabilities and payouts.
想像你有 25 美元，並被要求在擲硬幣上下注，概率和賠率如下。
05:00
Heads, probability, 60%.
正面，概率，60%。
05:03
Payout, doubling your bet.
賠率，加倍你的賭注。
05:06
Tails, probability, 40%.
反面，機率，40%。
05:09
Payout, losing your bet.
賠率，輸掉你的賭注。
05:13
How much would you be willing to wager of your total 25 bucks on this coin flip?
你願意在這次擲硬幣中，從總共的25美元中下注多少？
05:23
I mentioned earlier that you must be willing to bet big when great opportunities present themselves.
我之前提到過，當有很好的機會出現時，你必須願意大賭一把。
05:30
This is such a case.
這就是這樣的情況。
05:33
As Charlie Munger expresses it, we look for the horse with one chance in two of winning which pays you three to one.
如查理·芒格所說，我們尋找的是那匹有二分之一機會獲勝，但賠率為三比一的馬。
05:42
You're looking for a mispriced gamble.
你在尋找一個錯誤定價的賭注。
05:45
That's what investing is.
這就是投資。
05:49
But how much should you bet?
但是你應該下注多少呢？
05:51
Clearly, you cannot risk your whole account on this coin flip, as there's a solid 40% chance of losing it all.
顯然，你不能在這次擲硬幣中冒險賭上你的全部資金，因為有40%的機會會全輸。
05:59
If you repeat that with multiple bets like this, you are pretty much guaranteed to go broke at some point.
如果你重複這樣的多次下注，你幾乎肯定會在某個時點破產。
06:07
An interesting study was made with a coin like this where participants were asked to bet for 30 minutes, being able to place approximately 300 bets in total.
有一項有趣的研究，使用了這樣的硬幣，參與者被要求下注30分鐘，總共可以下注約300次。
06:17
Amazingly, as many as 28% of them went bust, and a staggering 66% decided to bet on tails at some point during the experiment.
令人驚訝的是，多達28%的參與者破產，而高達66%的參與者在實驗過程中某個時點選擇下注反面。
06:29
Luckily, you won't be one of them after this takeaway.
幸運的是，在學習了這個要點之後，你不會成為其中之一。
06:33
As given the odds of an investment, there is an optimal amount to bet, and this can be calculated using the Kelly formula.
根據投資的賠率，有一個最佳的下注金額，這可以通過凱利公式來計算。
06:42
How much did you guess before?
你之前猜了多少？
06:45
Well, according to Kelly, the answer is 20% of your total account during each flip, or $5 for the first bet.
根據凱利公式，答案是每次擲硬幣時下注你總資金的20%，或者第一次下注5美元。
06:56
The Kelly formula is calculated using the following equation.
凱利公式的計算使用以下方程式。
07:00
Try Google, Kelly criterion calculator multiple outcomes, if you want to learn more and do some testing.
如果你想了解更多並進行一些測試，可以嘗試在Google搜尋「凱利準則計算器多重結果」。
07:07
I did a Monte Carlo simulation of this experiment, but I used 20 tosses instead of 300.
我對這個實驗進行了蒙地卡羅模擬，但我使用了20次擲硬幣而不是300次。
07:14
When I simulated that 100 people were participating and betting 20% of their account in each flip, these were the results.
當我模擬100人參與，每次翻轉都下注其帳戶的20%時，這是結果。
07:24
Clearly, using the betting size suggested by the Kelly formula is not for the faint of heart.
顯然，使用凱利公式建議的下注金額並非膽小者所能承受。
07:31
The worst performing of the 100 participants had an account size of just $3 at the end of the experiment.
在這100名參與者中，表現最差的在實驗結束時帳戶僅剩3美元。
07:41
I imagine that most investors would probably have left the markets altogether, with such a downswing.
我猜想大多數投資者在面對如此大的下跌時，可能早就退出市場了。
07:47
Therefore, it's common practice to use a fraction Kelly, perhaps decide to bet just 25% of what Kelly suggests.
因此，常見的做法是使用部分凱利，也許只下注凱利建議金額的25%。
08:00
Takeaway number 3, DCF analysis.
第三個要點，DCF分析。
08:05
Okay, so using the Kelly formula sounds simple enough, in theory.
好的，理論上使用凱利公式聽起來很簡單。
08:11
But how do you know what the payout is when that is not given?
但當沒有給出賠率時，你如何知道賠率是多少？
08:15
I'm sorry to tell you this, but there is no easy way.
很抱歉告訴你，但沒有簡單的方法。
08:19
Deciding the intrinsic value, which could be compared to the potential payout of a company, is not an exact science and it involves a lot of guesswork.
決定內在價值（可以與公司的潛在賠付進行比較）並不是一門精確的科學，它涉及很多猜測。
08:30
We've talked about the net current asset strategy used by Benjamin Graham as one example of deciding the underlying value of a business.
我們已經討論過本傑明·格雷厄姆使用的淨流動資產策略，作為決定企業內在價值的例子之一。
08:38
Let me now present another one, the DCF analysis.
現在讓我介紹另一種方法，DCF分析。
08:43
DCF stands for discounted cash flow.
DCF代表折現現金流。
08:48
Ultimately, the only reason why a business is worth anything is because it's expected to generate a cash flow to its owners in the future.
歸根結底，企業有價值的唯一原因是它預計在未來會為其所有者產生現金流。
08:58
And would you rather be paid a thousand bucks today or a thousand bucks in ten years?
你是想今天收到一千美元，還是十年後收到一千美元？
09:04
I thought so.
我也是這麼想的。
09:05
That is the reason why we need to discount the cash flows.
這就是為什麼我們需要對現金流進行折現。
09:09
For example, if we think that $1,000 today is worth, say, $1,050 next year, we can use a 5% discount rate.
例如，如果我們認為今天的一千美元相當於明年的一千零五十美元，我們可以使用5%的折現率。
09:20
If we could invest in a business that will definitely generate $1,000 in cash flow per year, for the next ten years, it would be valued at $7,700, according to DCF analysis, using 5%.
But investing in the stock market never comes with such a guarantee of cash flows.
但投資股市從來沒有這樣的現金流保證。
09:42
And therefore, most investors require more than $1,050 next year.
因此，大多數投資者需要明年超過1,050美元的回報。
09:47
For $1,000 invested in a business today.
相對於今天投資1,000美元在一項業務上。
09:50
Say that perhaps $1,100 is sufficient.
假設1,100美元是足夠的。
09:55
If we think that, we use a 10% discount rate instead.
如果這樣想，我們就使用10%的折現率。
10:00
The same business, as mentioned before, would now be worth just $6,100 in today's value.
如前所述，同一項業務現在在今天的價值僅為6,100美元。
10:08
You probably understand why you must only focus on simple businesses now.
你可能理解為什麼你只能專注於簡單的業務。
10:14
Estimating future cash flows is difficult enough as it is.
預估未來現金流量已經夠困難了。
10:18
Doing it for a business in a complicated industry that you do not understand is impossible.
在你不理解的複雜行業中進行這項工作是不可能的。
10:25
A helpful guideline is to never estimate a cash flow more than ten years into the future.
一個有用的指南是永遠不要預估超過十年的現金流量。
10:31
Also, if you want to estimate a selling price in year 10, never use a higher PE ratio than 15.
此外，如果你想在第十年預估一個售價，永遠不要使用超過15的本益比。
10:43
Takeaway number four, look for low risk, high uncertainty businesses.
第四個要點，尋找低風險、高不確定性的業務。
10:50
Would you like to invest in this?
你想投資這個嗎？
10:52
Ten percent chance of returning 1,000%.
有10%的機會獲得1,000%的回報。
10:54
Four percent chance of returning 300%.
有4%的機會獲得300%的回報。
10:57
Four percent chance of returning minus 20%.
有4%的機會獲得負20%的回報。
11:00
Ten percent chance of returning minus 100%.
有10%的機會獲得負100%的回報。
11:08
You should want to.
你應該想要這樣的投資。
11:09
And according to Kelly, you should bet big.
根據凱利公式，你應該大膽下注。
11:13
75% of your account would be optimal.
75%的賬戶資金將是最佳的。
11:17
However, many investors would not take this bet when faced with its shrouded version in this stock market.
然而，許多投資者在面對股市中這種模糊的版本時，不會接受這種賭注。
11:24
Why?
為什麼？
11:26
Because of uncertainty.
因為不確定性。
11:30
Monish Pabrai states that Wall Street sometimes gets confused between risk and uncertainty, and you can profit handsomely from that confusion.
Monish Pabrai 表示，華爾街有時會混淆風險和不確定性，而你可以從這種混淆中大大獲利。
11:41
What you should avoid in this stock market is not uncertainty or volatility.
在股市中你應該避免的不是不確定性或波動性。
11:46
What you should avoid is a large permanent loss, or a streak of permanent losses that is enough to take you out of the investing game.
你應該避免的是巨大的永久損失，或足以讓你退出投資遊戲的一連串永久損失。
11:54
Wall Street loves low risk and low uncertainty, and therefore such stocks can almost never be found at bargain prices.
華爾街喜歡低風險和低不確定性，因此這類股票幾乎永遠無法以廉價買到。
12:03
What they want to see is something like this.
他們想看到的是像這樣的情況。
12:06
90% chance of returning 10%.
有 90% 的機會獲得 10% 的回報。
12:09
9% chance of returning 100%.
有 9% 的機會獲得 100% 的回報。
12:12
1% chance of returning minus 100%.
有 1% 的機會獲得負 100% 的回報。
12:16
But they would shy away from the opportunity presented before, because of its higher volatility.
但他們會因為較高的波動性而避開之前提到的機會。
12:24
Calculate a DCF for different scenarios, perhaps an aggressive, a standard, and a conservative estimate for the future of the business that you want to invest in.
為不同的情景計算 DCF，例如對你想投資的企業未來進行積極、標準和保守的估計。
12:35
Assign probabilities to each outcome.
為每種結果分配概率。
12:38
Don't be afraid to bet big if the calculation suggests it, even if the uncertainty is high.
如果計算結果建議你這麼做，即使不確定性很高，也不要害怕大舉下注。
12:49
5.
5.
12:50
The art of selling Making an investment is just half of the battle.
賣出的藝術 進行投資只是戰鬥的一半。
12:57
Having an exit plan is just as important, and you should have one before you go into an investment.
制定退出計劃同樣重要，你應該在進行投資之前就擁有這樣的計劃。
13:03
Here's Monish Pabrai's most important rule regarding selling.
以下是 Monish Pabrai 關於賣出的最重要規則。
13:08
Any stock that you buy cannot be sold at a loss within two to three years of buying it, unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that the current intrinsic value is less than the price that the market is offering.
