Warren Buffett is one of the richest men in the world.
沃倫·巴菲特是世界上最富有的人之一。
00:03
One of the key components to his multibillionaire success has been his ability to buy companies with a sustainable competitive advantage.
他成為億萬富翁的成功關鍵之一，在於他能夠購買擁有可持續競爭優勢的公司。
00:11
Think Coca-Cola, Moody's or C's candy.
想想可口可樂、穆迪或 C's 糖果。
00:16
For this video, we are going to see if we can mimic his success on how to make money by learning how to identify companies with such sustainable competitive advantages.
在這段影片中，我們將學習如何識別擁有這種可持續競爭優勢的公司，以模仿他的成功之道。
00:26
More specifically, we are going to learn how to do this by analyzing stock market companies' financial statements, the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement.
更具體地說，我們將學習如何通過分析股市公司的財務報表、損益表、資產負債表和現金流量表來做到這一點。
00:38
This is a top 5 takeaways video of Warren Buffett and the interpretation of financial statements, written by Mary Buffett and David Clark.
Warren Buffett can't emphasize enough how important it is for an investor to be able to understand these statements.
沃倫·巴菲特非常強調投資者能夠理解這些報表的重要性。
00:53
He says that, they are the language of business and even goes as far as saying that if you don't understand them, you have no business investing in individual stocks.
他說，這些報表是商業的語言，甚至進一步表示，如果你不理解它們，你就不應該投資個股。
01:05
But, don't worry, digesting financial statements can be a lot of fun.
但是，不要擔心，理解財務報表可以是一件很有趣的事。
01:10
At least Warren Buffett himself thinks so, as he says that, Takeaway number one, consistency is king.
至少沃倫·巴菲特本人這麼認為，他說，要點一，一致性是王道。
01:30
Warren Buffett is notorious for saying that the best holding period for an investment is forever.
沃倫·巴菲特以說投資的最佳持有期是永遠而聞名。
01:36
Here's a quick quiz.
這裡有一個快速小測驗。
01:38
Which product do you think is more likely to be popular still in 2050?
你認為哪種產品在 2050 年仍然可能受歡迎？
01:43
A. Coca-Cola, which has been popular for at least 120 years and has remained basically the same product for the whole duration.
A. 可口可樂，至少受歡迎了 120 年，且在整個期間基本保持不變。
01:52
B. Snapchat, which has been popular for about 7 years?
B. Snapchat，受歡迎了約 7 年？
01:59
The answer is quite obvious.
答案相當明顯。
02:01
When Warren Buffett is looking for investments with a sustainable competitive advantage, he wants to see consistency.
當沃倫·巴菲特尋找擁有可持續競爭優勢的投資時，他希望看到一致性。
02:09
Consistency in earnings.
收益的一致性。
02:11
Consistent low debt.
一致的低債務。
02:13
Consistently growing earnings.
不斷增長的收益。
02:16
Consistently low spending in capital expenditures and R&D.
資本支出和研發費用持續保持低水平。
02:20
Consistent profitability, etc.
持續盈利等。
02:23
To look at the last 10-year period is a good start, but as in the case of Coca-Cola, the longer the company has been proving its durability, the better.
觀察過去十年的表現是個好的開始，但以可口可樂為例，公司證明其持久性的時間越長越好。
02:34
Selling the same product for many years, such as Coca-Cola has done, has a great advantage for you as the stock owner.
多年銷售相同的產品，如可口可樂所做的，對股東來說是一大優勢。
02:40
It reduces costs by a lot.
這大幅降低了成本。
02:45
It reduces production costs as the need to upgrade machinery decreases.
由於減少了升級機器的需求，生產成本降低了。
02:50
It reduces marketing costs as marketing efforts are cumulative.
由於行銷努力具有累積效應，行銷成本也降低了。
02:55
It reduces costs for research and development, duh.
研發成本也降低了，這是顯而易見的。
02:59
It lowers the training cost of employees.
降低了員工的培訓成本。
03:02
It reduces the risk of having obsolete inventory.
降低了庫存過時的風險。
03:06
And when costs are reduced by a lot, it means a lot more money in the pockets of shareholders.
當成本大幅降低時，意味著股東口袋裡有更多的錢。
03:14
Not only are the costs reduced in these companies, but you'll be able to experience compound interest tax-free when your holding period is forever, which is something that has made Warren Buffett awfully rich during the last 50 years.
Takeaway number two, what Warren Buffett is looking for in an income statement.
第二個要點，沃倫·巴菲特在損益表中尋找什麼。
03:38
To illustrate what Buffett looks for, we will use one of his more recent and largest investments, Apple.
為了說明巴菲特尋找什麼，我們將使用他最近且最大的投資之一，蘋果公司。
03:45
First and foremost, I will assume that you know some basics about financial statements.
首先，我假設你已經了解一些財務報表的基礎知識。
03:50
If you don't, head over to my summary of the interpretation of financial statements.
如果你不了解，請查看我對財務報表解讀的總結。
03:59
Let's start out by having a look at the bottom line to confirm what we talked about in the previous takeaway.
讓我們從底線開始，確認我們在之前要點中談到的內容。
04:05
The net earnings of the company has shown great consistency over the last 10 years.
該公司的淨利潤在過去十年中表現出極大的穩定性。
04:10
Fair enough, it doesn't have the track record of Coca-Cola, and neither are its products as durable, in my opinion.
公平來說，它沒有可口可樂那樣的歷史記錄，而且它的產品也不如可口可樂那樣持久，這是我的看法。
04:17
But the iPhone has looked quite similar since its release in 2007.
但自2007年發布以來，iPhone的外觀一直相當相似。
04:21
Moreover, the earnings of Apple have grown at a steady pace.
此外，蘋果的盈利以穩定的步伐成長。
04:25
Another thing that Warren Buffett wants to see in his investments is a consistent and high gross margin.
華倫·巴菲特希望在他的投資中看到另一件事，即持續且高的毛利率。
04:32
As a rule of thumb, you'd want to see a margin of 40% plus.
經驗法則是，你希望看到40%以上的毛利率。
04:37
We can see that Apple just makes the cut here.
我們可以看到蘋果剛好達到這個標準。
04:40
It's always interesting to compare with competitors as well, so as a point of reference, Samsung had a gross margin of 45.7% in 2018 and Huawei had a margin of 38.6%.
Having a high gross margin typically says something about the scalability of the business, meaning that the more the company sells, the greater the profitability becomes.
高毛利率通常說明了企業的可擴展性，意味著公司銷售越多，獲利能力越大。
05:06
This is the trait that you'd want to see any business that you own.
這是你希望在任何你擁有的企業中看到的特質。
05:10
Finally, we want to compare the bottom line to the top line and calculate the net margin.
最後，我們想要比較底線與頂線，並計算淨利率。
05:16
Companies with a durable competitive advantage have higher net margins than their competitors.
擁有持久競爭優勢的公司比其競爭對手擁有更高的淨利率。
05:22
Apple beats both Samsung and Huawei in this regard.
在這方面，蘋果擊敗了三星和華為。
05:26
Here's another rule of thumb.
這是另一個經驗法則。
05:28
A net margin of 20% to higher is typically a very strong result, revealing that we are dealing with a smoothly run business.
20%或更高的淨利率通常是一個非常強勁的結果，揭示了我們正在處理一個運作順暢的企業。
05:39
Takeaway number three.
第三個要點。
05:41
What Warren Buffett is looking for in the balance sheet.
華倫·巴菲特在資產負債表中尋找的內容。
05:45
Next up is the balance sheet.
接下來是資產負債表。
05:48
Warren Buffett likes to look at a figure called retained earnings.
華倫·巴菲特喜歡查看一個稱為保留盈餘的數字。
05:51
The figure is being added to or withdrawn from each year depending on if the company is reinvesting its net income or not.
這個數字每年會根據公司是否再投資其淨收入而增加或減少。
05:59
Buffett typically likes to see a steady growth here, meaning that the business is profitable and that it identifies good reinvesting opportunities.
巴菲特通常希望看到這裡的穩定成長，意味著企業有獲利能力，並且能夠識別良好的再投資機會。
06:07
If we look at Berkshire Hathaway's retained earnings, for example, we see a very strong growth during the last decade.
例如，如果我們看看伯克希爾·哈撒韋的保留盈餘，我們可以看到在過去十年中有非常強勁的成長。
06:17
Apple doesn't really fulfill the criterion regarding retained earnings, but one must also take into consideration that, starting in 2013, Apple began a quite extensive dividends and share repurchase program.
To measure how efficient a company is using these reinvested earnings, return on equity can typically be used.
要衡量公司如何有效地使用這些再投資收益，通常可以使用股東權益報酬率。
06:41
To calculate this, we must revisit the income statement and compare the net income to the total equity of the company.
要計算這個，我們必須回顧損益表，並比較淨利潤與公司的總權益。
06:48
Apple is showing a lot of strength in this regard, which is partly an effect of distributing so much of the earnings to shareholders, but also a sign of a business with a durable competitive advantage.
As a comparison, Samsung and Huawei aren't even half as profitable.
相比之下，三星和華為的獲利能力甚至不及一半。
07:06
In his 1983 shareholder letter, Warren Buffett suggests a somewhat more sophisticated approach towards measuring how efficient a company is using its capital.
在1983年的股東信中，沃倫·巴菲特建議採用一種更複雜的方法來衡量公司如何有效地使用其資本。
07:17
He suggests that one should calculate the so-called return on net tangible assets.
他建議應計算所謂的淨有形資產報酬率。
07:22
More on this in the essays of Warren Buffett.
更多關於這方面的內容，請參閱沃倫·巴菲特的文章。
07:24
A third thing to notice is that the exceptional business seldom requires a lot of debt to expand, banks perhaps being the exception.
第三點需要注意的是，優秀的企業很少需要大量債務來擴張，銀行可能是例外。
07:35
Because usually, it can just use the strong cash flow from the business.
因為通常，它可以直接使用公司強勁的現金流。
07:40
Therefore, look for businesses with little to no long-term debt.
因此，尋找那些幾乎沒有長期債務的企業。
07:44
If a company can pay off all its long-term debt with less than four years of earnings, it's in quite a good position.
如果一家公司能夠用不到四年的收益償還所有長期債務，那麼它的狀況相當良好。
07:52
Apple clearly fulfills this criterion, and its competitors do too.
蘋果明顯符合這個標準，其競爭對手也是如此。
08:00
Takeaway number four.
第四個重點。
08:02
What Warren Buffett is looking for in a cash flow statement.
沃倫·巴菲特在現金流量表中尋找什麼。
08:06
Finally, the third financial statement that you must dive into is the cash flow statement.
最後，你必須深入研究的第三個財務報表是現金流量表。
08:12
A cash flow statement differs from an income statement in that it represents actual in-s and outs of money, while the income statement is a measure of financial performance.
現金流量表與損益表的不同之處在於，它代表實際的現金流入和流出，而損益表是衡量財務績效的工具。
08:23
Yes, I will probably make a video of its own about this in the future.
是的，我可能會在未來專門製作一個關於這方面的影片。
08:27
Comment, I want it down below if you want such a video.
請在下方留言，如果你希望看到這樣的影片。
08:33
For now, it's enough that you know that one important figure is the capital expenditures.
目前，你只需要知道一個重要的數字是資本支出。
08:38
This is money being spent on properties, plant and equipment primarily.
這些資金主要用於購置房地產、廠房和設備。
08:43
Look at what percentage capital expenditures are of net earnings.
看看資本支出佔淨收益的百分比是多少。
08:47
You want them to be as low as possible.
你希望這個比例越低越好。
08:50
Lower than 25% over a period of time is considered very good, and less than 50% is acceptable.
長期低於25%被認為非常好，低於50%也是可以接受的。
08:58
There are exceptions though, such as when a company is making a one-time payment to grow the business.
但也有例外，比如公司進行一次性支付以擴大業務時。
09:03
Look at what the company is using the money for.
看看公司如何使用這些資金。
09:07
Apple does very well here.
蘋果公司在這方面表現非常好。
09:10
In almost every year, they had capital expenses at less than 25%.
幾乎每年，他們的資本支出都低於25%。
09:15
The same thing can't be said about its competitors.
但競爭對手卻無法做到同樣的表現。
09:19
Also, in the cash flow statement, we can see the reasons why the retained earnings from the balance sheet haven't been growing much since 2012.
此外，在現金流量表中，我們可以看到為什麼自2012年以來，資產負債表中的留存收益沒有增長太多。
09:27
Apple has been distributing a lot of cash to its shareholders.
蘋果公司一直向股東分配大量現金。
09:32
The so-called Augmented Payout Ratio, which includes share buybacks as well as dividends, has been higher than 100% during some years.
所謂的擴大派息率，包括股票回購和股息，在某些年份超過了100%。
09:41
Which basically means that Apple is distributing more money than it earns.
這基本上意味著蘋果公司分配的資金超過了其賺取的金額。
09:49
Takeaway number five, when to sell.
第五個要點，何時賣出。
09:54
As I've talked about before, one of Warren Buffett's key concepts on how to invest in stock successfully is to hold on to your investments forever.
如前所述，華倫·巴菲特關於如何成功投資股票的關鍵概念之一是永遠持有你的投資。
10:02
Still though, there are three instances when you might consider selling your stock.
即便如此，有三種情況下你可能會考慮賣出股票。
10:09
One, you need more money for an even better investment.
一、你需要更多資金進行更好的投資。
10:13
At times, perhaps especially in bear markets, there are so many opportunities to go around that you must consider switching from something that is great to something that is exceptional.
有時，特別是在熊市中，有太多機會需要把握，你必須考慮從優秀的投資轉向卓越的投資。
10:24
In 1974, Warren Buffett said this, noting that a lot of stocks were undervalued.
1974年，華倫·巴菲特這樣說，指出許多股票被低估。
10:30
I felt like an oversext guy in a harem.
我覺得自己像是後宮裡一個過度興奮的男人。
10:34
Two, when a company may lose its competitive advantage.
第二，當一家公司可能失去其競爭優勢時。
10:40
Times are changing.
時代在變遷。
10:42
For example, the ones monopoly-like characteristics of the local newspapers are now being disrupted by online media.
例如，當地報紙的壟斷特性正被線上媒體所顛覆。
10:50
If one of your investments face a risk of this kind, it may be time to cut it loose.
如果你的投資面臨這種風險，可能是時候放手了。
10:56
Three, during crazy bull markets.
第三，在瘋狂的牛市期間。
11:00
Even a fantastic business can be a bad investment if you must acquire it at a crazy price.
即使是一家優秀的企業，如果你必須以瘋狂的價格購入，也可能是一項壞投資。
11:06
And likewise, there are times when you can improve your personal finances by selling a fantastic business at such a price, if you are already holding on to one.
同樣地，有時你可以透過以這樣的價格出售一家優秀的企業來改善個人財務，如果你已經持有這樣的企業。
11:16
Mary Buffett and David Clark suggest that at a PE ratio of 40 or higher, you should start considering selling your stocks, even if you believe in the underlying economics of the company.
When you are looking for a business with a durable competitive advantage, the keyword is consistency.
當你尋找具有持久競爭優勢的企業時，關鍵詞是一致性。
11:40
In the income statement, look for consistently growing net earnings and profit margins that consistently beat the competitors.
在損益表中，尋找持續成長的淨收益和持續擊敗競爭對手的利潤率。
11:49
When observing the balance sheet, remember that the superior business has a higher return on capital, that its seldom requires a lot of debt, and that retained earnings typically show a steady growth.
