Who do you think will have to pay the higher premium?
你認為誰必須支付更高的保費？
00:15
That's absolutely correct. It would be the 84 years old.
完全正確。會是那位84歲的。
00:19
The risk of him dying in the coming years is much higher than the 32 year old.
他在未來幾年內死亡的風險遠高於那位32歲的。
00:25
Corporations have life cycles just like humans do.
企業就像人類一樣，也有生命週期。
00:28
Risk increases when maturity is reached.
當達到成熟期時，風險會增加。
00:33
And therefore, in this video, we will learn how to identify companies that are in a strong growth phase, rather than maturity or decline.
因此，在本影片中，我們將學習如何識別處於強勁成長階段，而非成熟或衰退階段的公司。
00:41
As this is, a top 5 takeaway summary of Picking Growth Stocks, written by the father of growth investing, Thomas Rowe Price Jr.
因為這是成長型投資之父小湯瑪斯·羅·普萊斯所著《挑選成長股》的五大重點摘要。
00:51
This is the Swedish investor, bringing you the best tips and tools for reaching financial freedom through stock market investing.
我是瑞典投資者，為您帶來透過股市投資實現財務自由的最佳秘訣和工具。
01:01
Takeaway number one, Forum and Objective.
第一個重點：形成與目標。
01:05
Let's introduce three different characters.
讓我們介紹三位不同的角色。
01:09
Growth Gregory is 27 years old.
成長型葛雷哥里27歲。
01:11
He graduated from college a couple of years ago and has just been promoted from his entry-level position at an international manufacturing company.
他幾年前大學畢業，最近剛從一家國際製造公司的入門級職位獲得晉升。
01:20
He learned about the stock market quite recently and has concluded that, without having to quit his job and become an entrepreneur, it's one of the best opportunities for him to reach financial freedom.
他最近才接觸股市，並得出結論，在不辭職創業的情況下，這是他實現財務自由的最佳機會之一。
01:31
If he's going to work until the traditional retirement age of 65-something, it's going to be because he loves what he's doing, not because he feels forced to do so for financial reasons.
如果他要工作到傳統的65歲左右退休年齡，那將是因為他熱愛自己的工作，而不是因為財務原因被迫如此。
01:43
Cashflow Charles has just retired at age 67.
現金流查爾斯剛在67歲退休。
01:47
Charles has been saving part of his income during his whole career and has managed to build up quite a fortune, which is now planning to live off.
查爾斯在他的整個職業生涯中一直儲蓄部分收入，並成功累積了一筆可觀的財富，他現在正計劃靠這筆錢生活。
01:55
He's healthy and not intending to have his ultimate retirement until he reaches at least three digits of age, so he'd like for his capital to last as long as possible.
他身體健康，不打算在至少達到三位數年齡之前進行最終退休，所以他希望他的資本能持續盡可能長的時間。
02:08
Baby Brittany and her husband toddler Tony are about to expand their little family from two to three, and in about two years they think it will be necessary to upgrade from their current city apartment into a house in the suburbs.
They've been renting up until this point, which means that the cash for the house must come from their income.
到目前為止，他們一直在租房，這意味著購房的資金必須來自他們的收入。
02:28
They've been saving for quite a while, but still need a bit more to be able to afford the house that they've set their eyes on.
他們已經儲蓄了一段時間，但仍然需要更多一點才能負擔得起他們心儀的房子。
02:36
When you are investing, it's important to always have your main objective in mind.
進行投資時，始終將主要目標牢記在心非常重要。
02:42
Usually it boils down to one of the following three.
通常，這歸結為以下三者之一。
02:44
Capital Conservation, Liberal Income, or Capital Growth.
資產保值、自由收入或資產增長。
02:51
Which objectives do you think that Gregory, Charles, and Brittany have?
你認為格雷戈里、查爾斯和布蘭妮有什麼目標？
03:00
Gregory is looking for capital growth, Charles for Liberal Income, and Brittany for Capital Conservation.
格雷戈里尋求資產增長，查爾斯尋求自由收入，布蘭妮尋求資產保值。
03:07
Now, a market investment or security can do one of these objectives well, but it often means sacrificing the other two.
現在，市場投資或證券可以很好地實現其中一個目標，但通常意味著要犧牲另外兩個。
03:17
Short-term bonds of high grade or bank deposits are great for capital conservation, but they are completely useless for income or capital growth.
高評級的短期債券或銀行存款非常適合資產保值，但對於收入或資產增長則完全無用。
03:26
Preferred stocks, bonds of slightly lower grades, and some types of common stocks are useful for the investor who is looking for Liberal Income, but not so much for capital conservation or capital growth.
Finally, most growth stocks are really well suited for capital growth, but not for capital conservation or income.
最後，大多數成長股非常適合資產增長，但不適合資產保值或收入。
03:49
Since you are watching this channel, I assume that you aren't at the stage of Charles just yet, and since capital conservation is simple and quite boring, let's focus on finding stocks to aggressively increase the value of your portfolio, like Gregory aims to do, in the next four takeaways.
Takeaway number two, the life cycle theory of investing.
第二個要點：投資的生命週期理論。
04:16
Corporations have life cycles, just like humans do.
公司就像人類一樣，也有生命週期。
04:19
Risk increases when maturity is reached.
達到成熟期時，風險會增加。
04:23
Therefore, we'd like to pick up a company in its growth phase, rather than in the maturity or declining one.
因此，我們希望選擇處於成長階段的公司，而不是成熟期或衰退期的公司。
04:30
First and foremost, we want to look at the industry.
首先，我們要關注行業。
04:33
The two best measurements to see where in a cycle a specific industry is is by looking at sales, measured as unit volume, and net earnings available for shareholders.
衡量特定行業處於週期哪個階段的兩個最佳指標是銷售額（以銷量衡量）和股東可分配的淨收益。
04:44
The two variables are somewhat correlated, but typically, net earnings start to fall much faster than sales, once maturity is reached due to competition and prior capital investments.
Companies are desperate to keep their market shares, so they keep producing at full manufacturing capacity, which results in a bloodbath.
公司們拼命想保住市場佔有率，因此他們持續以全產能生產，結果導致一場血洗。
05:06
Therefore, you want to own stocks in industries that show growth, in both unit volume and net earnings.
因此，你會想擁有在產業成長中，無論是銷售量還是淨利潤都呈現成長的股票。
05:13
But sometimes, it's difficult to separate an industry life cycle from a normal business cycle.
但有時，很難將產業生命週期與正常的商業週期區分開來。
05:19
We want to identify the so-called secular or underlying trend, but actual sales and profits of an industry typically oscillates around the underlying trend, because of many outside factors that are just distractions.
In takeaway number 4 and 5, we will try to separate the signal from the noise.
在要點4和5中，我們將嘗試將訊號與噪音分開。
05:38
Price argues that for stocks in a growth phase, the chance of profit is higher, and the risk of capital loss is lower.
Price認為，對於處於成長階段的股票，獲利的機會更高，而資本損失的風險更低。
05:54
Okay, that's pretty much the theory behind it.
好的，這基本上就是背後的理論。
05:57
Now, how do we proceed to find these growth stocks in practice?
現在，我們如何在實踐中找到這些成長股？
06:04
Takeaway number 3, identifying growth stocks.
要點3，識別成長股。
06:09
Price definition of a growth stock is shares in a business enterprise, which have demonstrated favorable underlying long-term growth in earnings, and which, after careful research study, give indications of continued secular growth in the future.
There are two different types of growth stocks, stable and cyclical ones.
成長股有兩種類型，穩定型和週期型。
06:31
Those that have only minor fluctuations in earnings and dividends during times of turmoil are stable, and vice versa.
在動盪時期，盈利和股利只有輕微波動的是穩定型，反之亦然。
06:39
Think of Disney versus Evolvo, the Swedish truck manufacturer.
想想迪士尼與瑞典卡車製造商Evolvo。
06:44
Moreover, growth stocks can be either of the first grade or of the second grade.
此外，成長股可以是一流或二流。
06:50
First grade growth stocks are typically leaders in their fields, established companies which show financial strength.
一流成長股通常是其領域的領導者，具有財務實力的知名公司。
06:58
Second grade growth stocks are pretty much the opposite.
二流成長股基本上是相反的。
07:01
Unseasoned, often dependant on a few or a single type of products or patents, and financially weak.
新興的，經常依賴少數或單一產品或專利，且財務薄弱。
07:09
Let's go through Thomas Rowe Price Junior's qualifications for each of the quadrants.
讓我們來看看Thomas Rowe Price Junior對每個象限的資格要求。
07:15
First grade stable growth stocks must show four quantifiable qualities.
一流穩定成長股必須展現四個可量化的特質。
07:20
Disney fulfills these criteria quite well, but that's not enough to say that Disney would have qualified as a growth stock that price would have bought just yet.
迪士尼相當符合這些標準，但這還不足以說迪士尼會被Price視為他會購買的成長股。
07:29
There's also a future component built into this.
這其中還包含了未來的成分。
07:32
We must be expecting, based on qualitative factors that we will go through in takeaway number four and five, that both earnings and dividends will be higher in the coming years too.
我們必須基於定性因素（我們將在第四和第五個要點中討論）來預期，未來幾年收益和股息都會更高。
07:45
Second grade stable growth stocks should have the same qualities if I'm interpreting price correctly, but I have to admit that it's a little bit vague in the book.
二級穩定成長股應該具有相同的品質，如果我對價格的解讀正確的話，但我必須承認書中對此的描述有點模糊。
07:54
I think that the only difference between the two groups are the aforementioned factors of being a seasoned player in the industry and the financial conditions.
我認為這兩組股票之間的唯一區別在於前面提到的行業資歷和財務狀況等因素。
08:03
The Swedish company by Ogaya qualifies quite well here, but it does have a strong balance sheet.
Ogaya 提到的這家瑞典公司非常符合這些條件，而且它擁有強大的資產負債表。
08:11
On to the cyclical growth stocks.
接下來是循環成長股。
08:13
A first grade one should fulfill the following.
一級循環成長股應該滿足以下條件。
08:15
I would argue that, at least while keeping the component of the future out of it, Volvo qualifies as such a stock.
我認為，至少在不考慮未來成分的情況下，沃爾沃符合這樣的股票。
08:24
Both the earnings and the dividends from the last period of prosperity, the one before the financial crisis, has been surpassed in 2018 and 2019.
在上一個繁榮時期（即金融危機之前），2018年和2019年的收益和股息都已經超過了那個時期。
08:34
If this trend can continue into the future, is a different story, and for that we'll need to understand the next two takeaways.
這種趨勢是否能夠在未來繼續下去，就是另一個故事了，而為了理解這一點，我們需要了解接下來的兩個要點。
08:40
But finally, a second grade cyclical growth stock should show the following premises.
最後，二級循環成長股應該展現以下前提。
08:48
And as you can see, this quadrant is almost entirely decided by qualitative factors.
如你所見，這個象限幾乎完全由定性因素決定。
08:54
You'll have to take this with not just a grain of salt, but probably a whole bowl full of it, but at a first glance, I think that Tesla qualifies for this quadrant.
你可能需要帶著不只是一點懷疑，而是整碗的懷疑來看待這一點，但初看之下，我認為特斯拉符合這個象限。
09:05
It's cyclical, just like any other car manufacturer, it's definitely dependent on a single product or type of product.
它是循環性的，就像任何其他汽車製造商一樣，它絕對依賴於單一產品或產品類型。
09:12
It has weak financials, but there's a strong demand for the cost, and the brand value is high.
它的財務狀況較弱，但成本需求強勁，且品牌價值高。
09:19
Also, the revenue is increasing like crazy.
此外，營收正在瘋狂增長。
09:23
If we go back to the objectives presented in takeaway number one, different types of growth stocks can take on different roles.
如果我們回到第一個要點中提出的目標，不同類型的成長股可以扮演不同的角色。
09:31
Stable growth stocks of the highest grade can qualify for liberal income.
最高級別的穩定成長股可以符合自由收入的條件。
09:36
While timing second grade cyclical growth stocks well gives the best opportunity for capital growth.
而恰當地把握時機的二級循環成長股則提供了資本增長的最佳機會。
09:43
Now, on to the qualitative factors.
現在，我們來談談定性因素。
09:50
Takeaway number four, factors causing strong growth.
第四個重點，導致強勁成長的因素。
09:55
Alright, so we want to identify stocks that are in a growth phase, rather than a maturing or declining one.
好的，我們想要找出處於成長階段的股票，而不是成熟或衰退階段的股票。
10:01
Here are six indicators, improving the odds that the stock is still in a growth phase.
以下是六個指標，能提高該股票仍處於成長階段的機率。
10:08
It's a leader within an industry.
它是行業中的領導者。
10:11
The company doesn't necessarily have to be dominating a broad industry such as that of car manufacturing, being the dominant player of a niche such as electrical car manufacturing for the upper middle class can be just as good.
公司不一定要主導廣泛的行業，比如汽車製造業，成為中高階電動車製造這樣的利基市場的主導者也同樣有效。
10:25
Valuable patterns.
有價值的模式。
10:27
This is a simple way to lock in profits for a period of time.
這是一種在一段時間內鎖定利潤的簡單方法。
10:30
Beware expiration dates if this is important to the company though.
但如果這對公司很重要，要注意到期日。
10:37
Experienced staff.
經驗豐富的員工。
10:39
It's been said that the greatest asset of a company is its people.
有人說，公司最偉大的資產是其員工。
10:43
While some companies measure their percentages of employees with college degrees, I think it is more important to look for satisfaction among employees.
雖然有些公司會統計員工中擁有大學學位的比例，但我認為更重要的是員工的滿意度。
10:53
Glassdoor is a pretty good tool for this.
Glassdoor 是一個很好的工具來評估這一點。
10:57
Capable and progressive management.
能幹且進步的管理層。
11:00
Hello Tesla.
你好，特斯拉。
11:01
For a company to keep growing, it must stay competitive, and a progressive management is definitely key to this.
公司要保持成長，必須保持競爭力，而進步的管理層絕對是關鍵。
11:09
Potential to reach a world market.
進入全球市場的潛力。
11:12
If there's still a lot of untapped potential from a geographical standpoint, that is great.
如果從地理角度來看，仍有許多未開發的潛力，那麼這是很好的。
11:17
When Warren Buffett began to purchase Coke in 1988, he noted that Americans were drinking, on average, 289 bottles of Coke per year.
當沃倫·巴菲特在 1988 年開始購買可口可樂時，他注意到美國人平均每年喝 289 瓶可口可樂。
11:28
While in many other countries, the consumption was far lower.
而在許多其他國家，消費量要低得多。
11:33
Maintaining profitability while increasing sales.
在增加銷售的同時保持盈利能力。
11:37
This is usually referred to as scalability, and it's a very important trait for a growth business.
這通常被稱為可擴展性，對於成長型企業來說是一個非常重要的特質。
11:43
What you typically want to look for are companies that can add an additional customer at a price which is lower than the average of acquiring their previous X number of customers.
你通常想要尋找的是那些能夠以低於之前X數量客戶平均獲取成本的價格增加新客戶的公司。
11:54
Many companies with digital products fulfill this.
許多擁有數位產品的公司都符合這一點。
12:01
Takeaway number five.
第五個要點。
12:03
Factors causing maturity and decline.
導致成熟和衰退的因素。
12:07
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's right hand man, says, Invert, always invert.
查理·芒格，沃倫·巴菲特的左右手，說：「反向思考，永遠反向思考。」
12:13
Now we're going to listen to Munger's advice.
現在我們要聽從芒格的建議。
12:16
Which indicators decrease the odds that a stock is still in growth phase and probably reveals that it has reached maturity?
哪些指標降低了股票仍處於成長階段的可能性，並可能顯示它已經達到成熟期？
12:24
Adverse changes in management.
管理層的不利變動。
12:27
There are tons of reasons of why a single person may want to switch jobs, but if there's a drastic turnover in the senior management, it's likely a problem with a culture or with the prospects of the business.
有一個人想要換工作的理由有很多，但如果高層管理人員有劇烈的流動，可能是企業文化或業務前景出了問題。
12:41
Saturation of markets.
市場飽和。
12:43
Quite self-explanatory.
這一點不言自明。
12:45
If the company is dependent on only one or a few products, and there seems to be a stagnation of the demand of these across all possible markets, it is a really bad sign.
Many large and successful companies have been destroyed by new innovations.
許多大型且成功的公司都被新的創新所摧毀。
13:05
Kodak got annihilated by digital cameras.
柯達被數位相機所消滅。
13:09
Nokia was crushed by smartphones and Xerox disappeared in a digital world.
諾基亞被智慧型手機所擊敗，而施樂在數位世界中消失。
13:15
Increased competition.
競爭加劇。
13:17
Similar to the last point, but sometimes an industry doesn't have to become obsolete to turn unprofitable.
與上一點類似，但有時一個行業不需要被淘汰就會變得無利可圖。
13:24
Sometimes it's just enough that everyone wants to be doing the same thing.
有時，只需要每個人都想做同樣的事情就足夠了。
13:30
Adverse legislation.
不利的立法。
13:33
I've mentioned the Swedish gambling company Betzon as one of my worst investments ever, and although he checked many of the other boxes from this takeaway as well, such as increased competition, an unfavorable regulation in 2019 really turned out to be the nail in the coffin.
Increased taxes, a ban on certain types of marketing, and an increased ability for customers to control their own gambling behavior will surely lead to a stagnation, what is the sharp decline in the growth of the gambling industry in Sweden.
