Successful investing does not require stratospheric IQ, insider information, or luck, for that matter.
成功的投資不需要天才般的智商、內線消息，甚至運氣。
00:05
Instead, what's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions combined with an ability to keep emotions from ruining it.
相反，你需要的是一個穩健的智慧框架來做決策，並能夠防止情緒破壞這一切。
00:12
In *The Intelligent Investor*, Benjamin Graham presents such a framework, together with logic that will help to keep your emotions under control.
在《聰明的投資者》一書中，本傑明·葛拉漢提出了這樣的框架，以及幫助你控制情緒的邏輯。
00:20
Arguably, his investing strategy has been one of the most successful ones during the last hundred years.
可以說，他的投資策略是過去一百年來最成功的策略之一。
00:24
The impressive records, not just of Graham himself, but also of numerous of his disciples, are impossible to ignore.
不僅是葛拉漢本人，他的眾多弟子們的出色記錄也令人無法忽視。
00:32
Among these, the brightest shining star is Warren Buffett, who, at the time of this video making, is the third wealthiest man in the world.
其中，最耀眼的明星是沃倫·巴菲特，在製作這段影片時，他是世界第三富有的人。
00:38
Warren Buffett refers to this book as, by far, the best book on investing ever written.
沃倫·巴菲特稱這本書為迄今為止最好的投資書籍。
00:43
In this video, I would present the, in my opinion, greatest takeaways from the book.
在這段影片中，我將介紹我認為這本書中最偉大的收穫。
00:48
Takeaway number one: meet Mr. Market.
收穫第一點：認識市場先生。
00:51
Imagine that you own a part of a business that you paid $1,000 for.
想像你擁有一家企業的一部分，你為此支付了1,000美元。
00:54
Every day, a certain bipolar person, called Mr. Market, comes to your home and offers an opinion about how much your part of that business is worth.
每天，一個叫做市場先生的雙相情感人士會來到你家，對你擁有的那部分企業的價值提出他的看法。
01:02
Furthermore, he offers to buy your share or sell you an additional one on that basis.
此外，他還會基於這個價值，提出購買你的股份或賣給你額外股份的建議。
01:06
History has shown that Mr. Market's opinion about how much your part of the business is worth can be pure gibberish.
歷史表明，市場先生對你擁有的那部分企業的價值評估可能完全是胡言亂語。
01:12
For instance, back in March 2000, he estimated the value of your share to be at $2,600.
例如，在2000年3月，他估計你的股份價值為2,600美元。
01:18
Only one year later, in March 2001, he thought it was worth $500, even though the income of the company increased by 50%, and the profit increased by 20% during the same period.
Should you let this guy decide how much a $1,000 of interest in that business is worth?
你應該讓這個人決定你在該企業中價值1,000美元的股份價值嗎？
01:35
Of course not.
當然不應該。
01:36
One of Graham's core principles is that a stock is not just a ticker symbol combined with a price tag; it's an ownership interest in a business.
葛拉漢的一個核心原則是，股票不僅僅是一個代碼加上一個價格標籤；它代表著對一家企業的所有權。
01:44
And because Mr. Market isn't always rational, the underlying value of the business can differ from the price he's willing to pay for it.
由於市場先生並不總是理性的，企業的實際價值可能與他願意支付的價格不同。
01:52
In fact, it frequently is over or underpriced, as Mr. Market easily becomes over optimistic or, conversely, too pessimistic.
事實上，由於市場先生容易過度樂觀或過度悲觀，股票經常被高估或低估。
01:59
Graham advises you to invest only if you would feel comfortable holding the stock in the future without paying attention to the fluctuating prices that Mr. Market presents you with.
葛拉漢建議你，只有在未來即使不理會市場先生提供的波動價格，你仍然感到自在的情況下才進行投資。
02:06
But for the investor who can keep his head cool, Mr. Market presents a great possibility of making money.
但對於能夠保持冷靜的投資者來說，市場先生提供了一個賺錢的好機會。
02:11
For he doesn't force you to strike a deal with him; he merely presents you with an opportunity of doing so.
因為他不會強迫你與他交易；他只是為你提供了一個交易的機會。
02:17
You should be happy to sell to him when he offers prices that are ridiculously high, and similarly, you should be happy to buy from him when he presents you with bargains.
當他開出荒謬高的價格時，你應該樂於賣給他；同樣地，當他提供便宜貨時，你也應該樂於從他那裡買入。
02:25
We must consider that at the time when Graham wrote this book, people were far less bombarded with news, forecasts, stock quotes, and so on, than we are today.
Back in the 1970s, Mr. Market arrived once a day, together with a morning newspaper.
在1970年代，市場先生每天隨著晨報到來一次。
02:37
Today, he wants to do business with us every time we open our phone, which, if you're anything like me, is more than 100 times every day.
今天，每次我們打開手機時，他都想與我們做生意，如果你和我一樣，這可能每天超過100次。
02:46
Just because Mr. Market visits you more often, it doesn't mean that you must trade with him any more frequently than people had to in the 1970s.
只是因為市場先生更頻繁地拜訪你，並不意味著你必須比1970年代的人們更頻繁地與他交易。
02:53
If he doesn't present you with an offer that meets your standards, ignore him and move on with your day.
如果他提供的價格不符合你的標準，無視他，繼續你的一天。
02:59
Takeaway number two: how to invest as a defensive investor.
第二個要點：如何作為防守型投資者進行投資。
03:02
There are two types of investors, according to Graham: the defensive, or passive one, and the enterprising, or active one.
根據葛拉漢的說法，有兩種類型的投資者：防守型（或被動型）和進取型（或主動型）。
03:09
Most people are better suited for the defensive strategy, as the time they are willing to dedicate to investing is limited.
大多數人更適合防守型策略，因為他們願意花在投資上的時間有限。
03:15
The defensive investor should create a portfolio with a mixture of bonds and stocks—say, 50% stocks and 50% bonds.
防守型投資者應該建立一個包含債券和股票的投資組合，比如50%股票和50%債券。
03:22
Note that how much you should devote to each asset category depends on your life situation and the current difference in the average yield of stocks versus bonds.
注意，你應該在每種資產類別上投入多少資金，取決於你的生活狀況以及當前股票與債券的平均收益率差異。
03:29
Restore this allocation once or twice every year, so that if stocks suddenly make up 60% of the portfolio, compared to only 40% in bonds, sell stocks and buy bonds until 50-50 is restored.
You must invest a fixed amount of capital at regular intervals, for instance, straight after you get your salary.
你必須在固定的時間間隔內投入固定的資金，例如在領到薪水後立即進行。
03:47
This is called dollar cost averaging, and will allow for a fair average price of stocks and bonds.
這稱為定期定額投資，可以獲得股票和債券的合理平均價格。
03:51
Most of all, it will assure that you don't concentrate your buying at the wrong time.
最重要的，它能確保你不會在錯誤的時間集中買入。
03:55
For the stock component of the portfolio, the defensive investor should aim for the following eight criteria.
對於投資組合中的股票部分，防守型投資者應該遵循以下八個標準。
04:00
One: diversification in the companies he invests in. 10 to 30 companies should be adequate.
第一：在投資的公司中進行多元化。投資10到30家公司應該是足夠的。
04:05
Also, make sure that you are not overexposed to a single industry.
此外，確保你沒有過度暴露在單一行業中。
04:09
Two, the companies should be large, which Graham defined as generating more than $100 million in yearly sales.
第二，公司應該是大型的，葛拉漢定義為每年銷售額超過1億美元。
04:15
After inflation, this equals approximately $700 million in today's value.
經通膨調整後，這相當於今天的約7億美元。
04:19
Three, look for companies that are conservatively financed.
第三，尋找財務保守的公司。
04:23
Such a company has a so-called current ratio of at least 200%.
這樣的公司擁有所謂的流動比率至少為200%。
04:26
This means that its current assets are at least twice as big as its current liabilities.
這意味著其流動資產至少是流動負債的兩倍大。
04:32
Four, dividends should have been paid to shareholders for at least the last 20 years.
第四，公司應至少在過去20年內向股東支付股息。
04:36
Five, no earnings deficit in the last 10 years.
第五，過去10年內沒有盈餘赤字。
04:40
Six, at least 33% growth in earnings during the last 10 years.
第六，過去10年內盈餘至少增長33%。
04:44
This translates to a conservative growth of over 2.9% annually.
這相當於每年保守增長超過2.9%。
04:48
Seven, don't overpay for assets.
第七，不要過度支付資產。
04:51
The price of the stock should not be higher than 1.5 times its net asset value.
股票價格不應高於其淨資產價值的1.5倍。
04:55
The net asset value can be calculated by subtracting the company's liabilities from its assets.
淨資產價值可以通過公司資產減去負債來計算。
05:01
Eight, don't overpay for earnings either.
第八，也不要過度支付盈餘。
05:03
Don't let the PE ratio be higher than 15 when using the last 12-month earnings.
使用過去12個月的盈餘時，不要讓本益比超過15。
05:08
An alternative today is to invest in an index fund, which, by definition, will have returns similar to the average of the market.
今天的一個替代方案是投資指數基金，根據定義，其回報將與市場平均水平相似。
05:14
If you are satisfied with an average reward through your investing, you only need these two first takeaways.
如果你對投資獲得的平均回報感到滿意，你只需要這兩個要點。
05:20
However, if you thirst for more, you will also need to consider… Takeaway number three: how to invest as an enterprising investor.
然而，如果你渴望更多，你還需要考慮...要點三：如何作為進取型投資者進行投資。
05:29
As it's so easy for the defensive investor to get the average return of the market, it would seem a simple matter to beat the market.
由於防守型投資者如此容易獲得市場的平均回報，看起來超越市場似乎是一件簡單的事。
05:36
You just devote a little more time to investing than these average investors do, right?
你只需要比這些平均投資者花更多的時間在投資上，對吧？
05:44
To be an enterprising investor and to beat the market is much more demanding than such logic suggests.
成為一位進取型投資者並擊敗市場，比這種邏輯所顯示的要更具挑戰性。
05:49
It requires patience, discipline, eagerness to learn, and a lot of time.
這需要耐心、紀律、學習的熱情以及大量的時間。
05:54
Many professionals and private investors alike aren't suited for this.
許多專業人士和私人投資者都不適合這樣的要求。
05:58
It's easier to fall victim to the price quotations of Mr. Market than one could possibly imagine.
受到市場先生的報價影響比你想像的要容易得多。
06:03
Just listen to these two statements from the early 2000s, at the peak of the dot-com bubble, made by the chief investment strategist at two large mutual funds.
只需聽聽這兩段在2000年代初期，科網泡沫頂峰時期，由兩大共同基金的首席投資策略師所發表的言論。
06:11
“It’s a new world order to see people discard all the right companies with all the right people with the right visions because their stock price is too high.” “That’s the worst mistake an investor can make.” “It’s the stock market riskier today than two years ago, simply because the prices are higher.”
Of course, both statements turned out to be costly for the investors who put their money in these funds.
當然，這兩種說法對於將資金投入這些基金的投資者來說，結果都非常昂貴。
06:36
Since the profits that companies can earn are finite, the price the intelligent investor should be willing to pay for these companies must also be finite.
由於公司能夠賺取的利潤是有限的，聰明的投資者願意為這些公司支付的價格也必須是有限的。
06:44
Price is truly an important factor for the enterprising investor.
價格對於進取型投資者來說確實是一個重要的因素。
06:47
Just like the market tends to overvalue companies when they have been growing fast or are glamorous for some other reason, it tends to undervalue the ones with unsatisfactory development.
The intelligent investor should, therefore, try to avoid so-called growth stocks as much as possible.
因此，聰明的投資者應該盡量避免所謂的成長股。
07:00
Why? Simply because the investment decision is based relatively more on future earnings, and future earnings are less reliable than current valuations.
為什麼？因為投資決策較多地基於未來的收益，而未來的收益比當前的估值更不可靠。
07:10
If you, on the other hand, can find a company which is valued lower than its net working capital, you essentially pay nothing for all the fixed assets such as buildings, machinery, goodwill, etc.
The net working capital can be calculated by subtracting total liabilities from current assets.
淨營運資本可以通過從流動資產中減去總負債來計算。
07:25
Such companies were proven truly profitable during Graham's investment career.
這些公司在格雷厄姆的投資生涯中被證明是真正有利可圖的。
07:30
Unfortunately, they are rare today, except during tough bear markets.
不幸的是，這些公司在今天非常罕見，除了在嚴峻的熊市期間。
07:34
Luckily, Graham suggests an additional method of finding investments for the enterprising investor.
幸運的是，格雷厄姆提出了進取型投資者尋找投資的另一種方法。
07:38
These criteria are similar to the ones that the defensive investor should use, but the constraints are looser, allowing the enterprising investor to consider more companies.
這些標準與防守型投資者應使用的標準類似，但約束條件較為寬鬆，允許進取型投資者考慮更多的公司。
07:47
Note that there is no constraint at all regarding company size.
請注意，公司規模完全沒有限制。
07:50
Also, some diversification should be applied, but the number of companies held isn't carved in stone for the active investor.
此外，應該進行一些多元化投資，但積極投資者持有的公司數量並非一成不變。
07:56
In analyzing a company, the enterprising investor should also study its annual financial reports.
在分析一家公司時，進取的投資者也應該研究其年度財務報告。
08:02
Graham has written a whole book on this subject called *The Interpretation of Financial Statements*, so we should speak more about this on another occasion.
格雷厄姆就此主題寫了一整本書，名為《財務報表解讀》，因此我們應另找機會討論這個話題。
08:10
Takeaway number four: insist on a margin of safety.
第四個要點：堅持安全邊際。
08:13
There's one risk that no careful consideration can truly eliminate: the risk of being wrong.
有一種風險是任何謹慎的考慮都無法真正消除的：判斷錯誤的風險。
08:19
You can, however, minimize this risk.
然而，你可以將這種風險最小化。
08:21
To do this, you must insist that every investment you make has a margin of safety.
為此，你必須堅持每一項投資都要有安全邊際。
08:25
As mentioned before, the price and value of a company are not always the same.
如前所述，公司的價格和價值並不總是相同。
08:30
When the price is at most two thirds of its calculated value, the investor has found a company with enough margin of safety.
當價格最多為其計算價值的三分之二時，投資者就找到了一家具有足夠安全邊際的公司。
08:36
You wouldn't construct a ship that sinks if 31 Vikings boarded it, if you know that it regularly will be used to transport 30 of them.
如果你知道一艘船經常用來運送30名維京人，你不會造一艘船，讓它在31名維京人上船時沉沒。
08:43
Neither should you invest in a stock that you think is worth, say, $31, if it currently is priced at $30.
同樣地，如果你認為一支股票價值，比如說，31美元，而目前價格為30美元，你也不應該投資這支股票。
08:49
It might be that your calculation is wrong.
可能你的計算是錯的。
08:51
In the first case, a group of angry and wet Vikings might hunt you down.
在第一種情況下，一群憤怒且濕透的維京人可能會追殺你。
08:55
In the second, you might postpone your financial freedom by a couple of years.
在第二種情況下，你可能會將你的財務自由推遲幾年。
08:59
I don't know which situation I’d consider to be worse.
我不知道哪種情況更糟。
09:01
Use margins of safety.
使用安全邊際。
09:04
A formula used in the book can give you some heads up regarding what the value of a company is, and therefore also, if it can be bought with a margin of safety.
書中使用的一個公式可以讓你預先了解一家公司的價值，因此也能知道是否可以以安全邊際買入。
09:11
Value equals current normal earnings times 8.5 plus 2 times expected annual growth rate.
價值等於當前正常收益乘以8.5加上2倍的預期年增長率。
09:19
The growth rate should be equal to the expected yearly growth rate of earnings for the next 7 to 10 years.
增長率應等於未來7到10年預期的年收益增長率。
09:25
Here's how much the three largest companies of the S&P 500 are worth according to the formula in September 2018.
以下是根據2018年9月的公式，標準普爾500指數中三家最大公司的估值。
09:32
Note that we can use the formula backwards too to trace how much these companies must grow in the coming 7 to 10 years for today's stock prices to be rational.
Amazon is expected to grow at 74% per year according to its stock price, while Apple is expected to grow at a mere 5.8%.
根據亞馬遜的股價，預期其年成長率為74%，而蘋果的預期年成長率僅為5.8%。
09:50
Do you think that this is reasonable?
你認為這合理嗎？
09:54
Take away number five.
第五個要點。
09:55
Risk and reward are not always correlated.
風險和回報並不總是相關的。
09:58
According to academic theory, the rate of return which an investor can expect must be proportional to the degree of risk that he's willing to accept.
根據學術理論，投資者可以期望的回報率必須與他願意承受的風險程度成正比。
10:05
Risk is then measured as the volatility of the returns on the investment, meaning how much it has differed historically from its expected value.
風險則被衡量為投資回報的波動性，即歷史上與其預期值的差異程度。
10:12
Graham doesn't agree with this statement.
格雷厄姆不同意這種說法。
10:15
Instead, he argues that the price and value of assets often are disconnected.
相反，他認為資產的價格和價值經常脫節。
10:19
Therefore, the return that an investor can expect is a function of how much time and effort he brings in his pursuit of finding bargain assets.
因此，投資者可以期望的回報取決於他花費多少時間和精力去尋找便宜的資產。
10:27
The minimum return goes to the defensive or passive investor, while the maximum goes to the enterprising investor, who exercises maximum intelligence and skill.
最低回報歸於防守型或被動型投資者，而最高回報則歸於進取型投資者，他們運用最大的智慧和技能。
10:35
Consider this.
試想這個情景。
10:37
It's 4 a.m. in the morning, and you've been out drinking in the streets of Moscow together with your friends.
清晨四點，你和朋友們在莫斯科的街頭喝酒。
10:41
You decide that it's too early to call it a night, and therefore, you end up in the more obscure parts of town.
你認為現在回家還太早，於是你們來到了城中較為偏僻的地方。
10:47
At a particularly ambiguous bar, you're approached by a man who asks, “Do you want to play a game?” “Well, of course, games are fun,” your bravest and least sober friend replies.
The man puts a revolving chamber in front of you, which is loaded with a single bullet.
那個男人在你面前放了一個旋轉彈倉，裡面裝有一顆子彈。
11:01
“I’ll give you $10,000 if you dare to take a shot.” Russian Roulette.
“如果你敢開一槍，我就給你一萬美元。”俄羅斯輪盤。
11:05
Your drunk friend reaches out for the gun, but you stop him.
你的醉酒朋友伸手去拿槍，但你阻止了他。
11:07
“I think we’ll pass on this one,” you politely inform the man.
「我想我們會放棄這次機會，」你禮貌地告訴那個人。
11:10
“I thought so,” he replies.
「我就知道，」他回答道。
11:12
“What about $100,000 for taking two shots?” Now, this story represents the academic way of demanding a higher potential reward for taking a higher risk.
In the first offer, you were to receive $10,000 at a 16.7% risk of blowing your brains out.
在第一個提議中，你有 16.7% 的風險會炸掉自己的腦袋，以換取 1 萬美元。
11:28
In the second offer, the reward is $100,000, because the risk of putting a hole through your head has increased to 33.3%.
在第二個提議中，回報是 10 萬美元，因為被子彈穿過頭部的風險增加到 33.3%。
11:35
Seems logical, right?
看起來很合理，對吧？
11:37
But stock market investing doesn't have to be like that.
但股票市場投資不必這樣。
11:40
Remember that price and value are not the same.
記住，價格和價值不是同一回事。
11:43
When you buy a company at $0.60 on the dollar, you have a great potential reward and a low risk.
當你以 0.6 美元的價格買入一家公司時，你擁有巨大的潛在回報和較低的風險。
11:48
Furthermore, if you can find another company that you can buy at $0.40 on the dollar, you have found an even better potential reward combined with an even lower risk.
How could anyone in their right mind argue that it's riskier to buy a dollar at the price of $0.40 than to buy a dollar at $0.60 just because the potential reward is higher?
Firstly, the market tends to be over-optimistic and too pessimistic from time to time.
首先，市場有時會過度樂觀或過度悲觀。
12:14
Don't let this influence what you think the true value of your assets are.
不要讓這影響你對資產真實價值的判斷。
12:18
Instead, see it as a business opportunity where you get to deal with a person who has no idea of what he's doing.
相反，將其視為一個商機，你可以與一個不知道自己在做什麼的人交易。
12:23
Secondly, the defensive investor should go for a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, where the stock category consists of primarily low-priced issues.
其次，防守型投資者應該追求多元化的股票和債券投資組合，其中股票類別主要由低價股票組成。
12:32
Thirdly, the enterprising investor should also aim for stocks that show lower price tendencies.
第三，進取型投資者也應該瞄準價格趨勢較低的股票。
12:37
If he can find a company that is trading below its net working capital, he might have found his El Dorado.
如果他能找到一家公司的交易價格低於其淨營運資本，他可能已經找到了自己的黃金城。
12:42
The fourth takeaway is that the intelligent investor should insist on a margin of safety when acquiring an asset.
第四個要點是，聰明的投資者在購買資產時應該堅持安全邊際。
12:48
And finally, takeaway number five is that risk and reward aren't necessarily correlated.
最後，第五個要點是風險和回報不一定相關。
12:53
What do you think of Graham's advice?
你如何看待葛拉漢的建議？
12:55
Are they still as applicable today as they were back in the 1970s?
這些建議在今天是否仍像1970年代那樣適用？
12:58
Share your thoughts with other viewers in the comments below.
在下方留言與其他觀眾分享你的想法。
13:01
As always, if you want me to summarize a specific book on investing, personal finance, or money management, please comment on that as well.
一如既往，如果你希望我總結某本關於投資、個人理財或資金管理的書，也請留言告訴我。
13:07
And if you find that any of the takeaways of this book is especially interesting and want me to elaborate on it, don't be shy; you may comment on that too.
如果你覺得這本書的某些要點特別有趣，並希望我進一步闡述，不要害羞，也可以留言。
13:14
Thanks for watching, guys, and have a good one.
謝謝收看，各位，祝你們愉快。
THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR SUMMARY (BY BENJAMIN GRAHAM)
