isn't too bad For the price of a 19-inch Senith TV in
以 1965 年一台 19 英寸 Senith 電視機的價格,
00:24
1965, you would be able to buy a brand new (and Swedish) Volvo V60 in 2019.
你在 2019 年可以買到一輛全新(且瑞典製)的沃爾沃 V60。
00:31
However, if you invested in Berkshire Hathaway, you could have bought that Volvo at the price of a Barbie doll instead In terms of market value, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's Berkshire Hathaway now trails only five companies in the entire world
Their excellent investing strategies have made Berkshire the largest conglomerate in the world, and they own some of the world's most famous brands through the company Can we learn something about how to invest in stocks from these two gurus?
And we shall, because this is: A top five take away summary of: The University of Berkshire Hathaway, written by Daniel Pecaut and Corey Wrenn
而且我們將會這麼做,因為這就是:波克夏海瑟威大學的五大要點總結,由丹尼爾·佩科特和科里·雷恩撰寫。
01:14
These guys have analyzed every word that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have spoken during the annual shareholder meetings of Berkshire Hathaway of the last 30 years Let's see what they have to say about Buffett and Munger's investing approach
Takeaway number one: How to invest during times of inflation Inflation is an enemy to the investor What does it help if your portfolio has increased by say 10% per year
要點一:如何在通膨時期進行投資。通膨是投資者的敵人。如果你的投資組合在過去十年內每年增長 10%,
01:45
during the last 10 years if inflation has been 10% during the same period?
但同期通膨率也是 10%,那有什麼幫助呢?
01:50
Answer: Nothing at all.
答案是:完全沒有。
01:52
You're just as rich or poor as you were a decade ago.
你仍然和十年前一樣富有或貧窮。
01:56
The aspiring investor must learn how to beat this inflationary enemy And this may be extra important to study today, when pretty much every major Western economy have record low interest rates
At least in theory, this should lead to higher inflation Let’s start out with what you shouldn’t invest in: - Currencies
至少在理論上,這應該會導致更高的通膨。讓我們先從你不應該投資的東西開始:- 貨幣
02:19
Well, this one pretty much explains itself.
這一點幾乎不言自明。
02:21
As long as governments around the world keep printing money, the value of currencies will decrease - Bonds There are some special cases, but with a regular bond, the idea is that you pay a fixed sum now, and in return,
you get a fixed future stream of cash flows The value of this cash flow is proportional to inflation, which is the reason why investors demand higher bond yields in an inflationary environment.
Sure, it will keep its value during times of inflation, but so will ANY hard asset You may as well buy a piece of land or a painting.
當然,在通膨時期它能保值,但任何實物資產都能做到這一點,你不如去買一塊地或一幅畫。
03:18
The problem is that these investments don't produce anything One kilo of gold will remain one kilo of gold even ten years from now Therefore, over time, returns from such investments will be mediocre.
To prove a point: In 1987 the Van Gogh painting "Sunflowers" was sold for 40 million dollars, a record at that time for a piece of art.
為了證明一點:1987年,梵谷的畫作《向日葵》以4000萬美元的價格售出,當時創下了藝術品的紀錄。
03:46
Someone calculated that, even that record-breaking piece had only had a return of 13% per year since it was created, which Buffett and Munger, with their 20% return, beat by a fair margin
To cope with inflation, you should invest in assets that produce something Like a company in the stock market, for example Not only that though, you should invest in a business that employs relatively little capital and that has pricing flexibility
The worst sort of company to invest in during times of inflation is one that requires a lot of capital just to stay in business Even IF the company can raise its prices, the profits will probably be offset by the investments that were required earlier
Many industrial companies with a lot of tangible assets on their balance sheets fall into this category Companies that sell commodity products often fail the second test of pricing power
許多擁有大量有形資產的工業公司屬於這一類,銷售大宗商品的公司通常不符合定價能力的第二個測試。
04:50
One of Buffett's favourite examples of a company that fulfills both criteria is See's Candy When Berkshire Hathaway purchased it in 1971, it had revenues of $25 million with $9 million in tangible assets
Forty years later, it had revenues of $300 million, with $40 million of tangible assets In other words, See's Candy needed to invest only $31 million extra to generate
$275 million more in revenues The very best way to secure your personal finances against inflation is to invest in yourself though
2.75億美元的額外收入,保護個人財務免受通膨影響的最佳方式是投資自己。
05:29
If you increase your earning power, you will be sure to stay ahead of inflation More on this in the final takeaway Takeaway number two: What is investment risk?
如果你提高自己的賺錢能力,你就能確保跑贏通膨,更多內容請見最後的總結,總結第二點:什麼是投資風險?
05:45
In academia, investment risk is defined as the volatility of an investment.
在學術界,投資風險被定義為投資的波動性。
05:50
If there are huge swings it must per definition be riskier to invest in, right?
如果有巨大的波動,根據定義,投資風險必然更高,對嗎?
05:57
WRONG! Warren Buffett finds this measurement of risk to be silly How can an investment that alternates between a 20% return and 80% return per year be riskier than a steady 5%?
In Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger defines risk as: "The possibility of harm or injury." In other words, something that can potentially damage your returns permanently
With Buffett's buy-and-hold strategy of stocks, market swings are therefore irrelevant Instead, he looks at three different types of business risks: - Capital structure
由於巴菲特的買入並持有股票策略,市場波動因此無關緊要,相反,他關注三種不同的業務風險:- 資本結構
06:38
The higher the leverage, the riskier the business Excess leverage can sometimes cause people to make really dumb decisions, even if they've been very successful before
槓桿越高,業務風險越大,過度槓桿有時會導致人們做出非常愚蠢的決定,即使他們之前非常成功。
06:50
This goes for individual investors as well, be very careful with leverage Buffett says: "Anything times zero is zero"
這也適用於個人投資者,對槓桿要非常小心,巴菲特說:“任何數乘以零都是零。”
07:02
- Capital requirements A company that requires a lot of capital just to stay in business is riskier than one that doesn't have this characteristic During times of financial turmoil, this may cause severe liquidity issues
A company that is selling a commodity like product without any pricing power always face the risk of a pricing war During such times, only the low-cost producers survive
There simply isn't enough time to go around for you to investigate EVERY company in the stock market in detail Therefore, you must use filters so that you don't waste time on unproductive investing ideas
Berkshire Hathaway doesn't have a one-size-fits-all system for filtering companies though, as Buffett and Munger think that each industry is different
伯克希爾·哈撒韋並沒有一套通用的公司篩選系統,因為巴菲特和芒格認為每個行業都不同
08:10
So regarding key ratios, such as price to earnings or return on assets, they have nothing generic to share However, they have two other types of filters that every investment they make must pass:
If the company doesn't have great executives, who also act in the best interest of shareholders, Buffett and Munger will avoid it For more on this investing 101 tip, head over to my summary of The Essays of Warren Buffett
- Circle of competence If you don't have a good idea of how the business will perform in the next, say, 5-10 years, you should simply avoid it
能力範圍 如果你對公司在未來5-10年的表現沒有好的想法,你應該簡單地避開它
08:55
This is one of the key principles to Berkshire Hathaway's great success Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are masters of some industries and some businesses But more importantly, they know the boundaries of their competence
For example - Berkshire has long stayed away from technology and pharma stocks Back in 1999, Buffett actually questioned if anyone could understand technology companies during the peak of the dot-com bubble
He jokingly said that: If he was a business teacher, he would, for the final exam, present an Internet company and ask the students how much it is worth And anybody who gave him an answer, he would flunk
Another interesting point regarding filters that Charlie Munger expressed during the year 2017 annual meeting was this: "You must fish where the fish are" China has a lot of fish.
In the US market, there are too damn many boats Takeaway number 4: The share of mind principal
在美國市場,有太多的船。第四個要點:心智份額原則
10:03
Okay, here comes a quick test.
好的,這裡有一個快速測試
10:05
I want you to say out loud the first company that pops up: - Soft drinks - Shaving blades
我要你大聲說出第一個浮現在腦海中的公司: - 汽水 - 剃鬚刀片
10:16
- Smartphones - Ketchup - Kids movies
智慧型手機 - 蕃茄醬 - 兒童電影
10:22
Were these the companies that you came to think about?
這些是你想到的公司嗎?
10:25
Please comment down below how many of them that matched with what you thought about!
請在下方留言告訴我,你想到的公司有多少與這些相符!
10:31
This is the share of mind principle The brands of these companies are so strong that they sometimes are mixed up with the products themselves It is not a coincidence that Berkshire Hathaway has owned, or currently owns, a
substantial number of shares in these companies The advantage of these companies, as Buffett explains it, lies in the pricing power that such associations lead to
這些公司的大量股份,巴菲特解釋說,這些公司的優勢在於這種關聯性帶來的定價能力
10:58
For example: If you are thirsty and perhaps also a little bit tired and you need something refreshing, the go-to for many is a Coke On the other hand, if you need to free some time while the kids are at home, you put on a Disney movie
You don't go for other products, because you're not certain that they will solve your problems Therefore, it doesn't really matter if Coke or Disney costs 20% more than their competitors
The brand's have great pricing power Warren Buffett puts it as simple as this: "If share of mind exists, the market will follow"
這些品牌擁有強大的定價能力,沃倫·巴菲特簡單地表達為:「如果心智份額存在,市場就會跟隨」
11:40
Take away number 5: Invest in yourself You are your own greatest asset.
第五個要點:投資自己,你是自己最大的資產
11:48
In George Clason’s “The Richest Man in Babylon”, it is suggested that you should always pay yourself first.
在喬治·克萊森的《巴比倫最富有的人》中,建議你應該總是先付錢給自己
11:54
Always, give yourself 10% of what you earn first.
總是先給自己10%的收入
11:58
The world can have the rest.
世界可以擁有剩下的
12:01
Charlie Munger read this book at an early age and learned about the power of compound interest Money, that earns money, that earns money that earns money ..
查理·芒格在年輕時讀了這本書,了解了複利的力量:錢生錢,錢再生錢,錢繼續生錢...
12:10
Yeah. However.
是的,但是
12:12
It was not until later that he also understood the power of mental compound interest He decided to always give himself the best hour of the day to improve his mind
直到後來,他才理解了心智複利的力量,他決定每天把最好的一小時給自己,用來提升思維
12:22
Then the world could have the rest In takeaway number one, I talked about how you can cope with inflation well if you invest in yourself For example, if you are the best surgeon in town, your wage will likely be more than indexed to inflation
Warren Buffett spent tons of hours in his early days reading every single book he could fetch about investing from the local library Some of them even twice!
沃倫·巴菲特在早期花了大量時間閱讀當地圖書館中所有關於投資的書籍,有些甚至讀了兩遍!
12:50
He suggests that you should fill your mind about competing ideas and then see what makes sense to you if only there was a place where you could do that without having to spend tons of hours, and,
without having to travel to the local library every day ...
不必每天去當地圖書館...
13:06
Hmm ... Also, the earlier you can start, the better Not only does money compound but as Buffett and Munger suggest - learning does as well Making your first investing mistakes while your account is still small,
and to start building up a database of great stocks in your mind, is what they would advise every aspiring investor to do If you are still in your teens watching this, please comment "started early!" down below
All right time to sum up: - Businesses that require little capital to grow and that possess pricing flexibility are the investors greatest defense against inflation
好的,是時候總結了:- 需要少量資本來成長並具有價格靈活性的企業是投資者對抗通脹的最大防禦
13:52
- The risk associated with an investment is not dependent on the price fluctuations of its stock, but on the underlying characteristics of the business - Use filters to avoid wasting time on unproductive investment ideas
- A great branded product is often a good investment.
好的品牌產品通常是一個好的投資
14:11
If share of mind exists, the market will follow - Invest in yourself Use compounding, not only for your bank account, but also for your mind
如果心智份額存在,市場就會跟隨 — 投資自己,不僅要讓你的銀行賬戶複利增長,也要讓你的思維複利增長
14:23
I've made a few summaries of books about Warren Buffett before, and there's much much more that we can learn from this investing guru on how to make money than I wasn't able to squeeze into this single video