For those of you who don't know him, Howard Marks is one of the greatest investors of all time, and he has a track record similar to that of, well, for instance Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.
A fun fact is that it was actually Buffett himself who pushed Howard Marks to write this book in the first place, which gives a hint of what level he is at.
一個有趣的事實是，其實是巴菲特本人最初推動霍華德·馬克斯寫這本書的，這也暗示了他的水準有多高。
00:33
Howard noticed that when he spoke to people investing in his funds, he often said, “the most important thing is A,” and then, “the most important thing is B,” etc, etc, and he realized that there are quite a few things that you need to understand in order to become a successful
Howard put these guidelines together in this book.
霍華德將這些指導原則整理成了這本書。
00:55
I'm going to present 5 of these most important things.
我將介紹其中最重要的五個要點。
01:00
If you manage to follow all 5, you've come a very long way towards securing your future financials.
如果你能遵循這五個要點，你就已經在確保自己未來財務安全的道路上走得很遠了。
01:07
And I do hope that you've had your coffee because these takeaways are all of major importance, and they do require some serious thinking.
我希望你已經喝了咖啡，因為這些要點都非常重要，需要認真思考。
01:23
Takeaway number 1, risk: understand, recognize, and control it.
要點一，風險：理解、識別和控制它。
01:31
Howard allocates 3 chapters to risk, and divides it into 1, understanding risk; 2, recognizing risk; and 3, controlling risk.
霍華德用了三個章節來討論風險，並將其分為：1、理解風險；2、識別風險；3、控制風險。
01:42
Let's start with the first one.
讓我們從第一個開始。
01:44
The most important thing is understanding risk.
最重要的事是理解風險。
01:50
There are lots of unfortunate misconceptions regarding risk.
關於風險，有很多不幸的誤解。
01:54
For example, riskier assets do not necessarily provide higher rates of return; otherwise they wouldn't be riskier.
例如，風險較高的資產不一定會帶來較高的回報率；否則它們就不會是風險較高的資產。
02:04
Risk doesn't come from weak fundamentals, for instance, alone, because basically any investment bought at the right price may be a profitable investment.
風險並不僅僅來自於基本面的薄弱，因為基本上任何以合適價格購買的投資都可能是一項有利可圖的投資。
02:15
Figuring out what an asset is worth, and then comparing that to what it costs, is what enables a marginal safety.
計算一項資產的價值，然後與其成本進行比較，這就是實現安全邊際的方法。
02:24
The most important thing is recognizing risk.
最重要的事是識別風險。
02:28
In order to be able to achieve above average results, you need to have a way of identifying what risk a certain asset carries, and then deciding if that is reasonable, compared to the risk that the market is expressing through the price of the asset.
Pretend there is a company called MetFlip, which is selling at a PE ratio of 300.
假設有一家名為MetFlip的公司，其市盈率為300倍。
02:52
In other words, the market is expressing that MetFlip is a surefire bet.
換言之，市場認為MetFlip是一項穩賺不賠的投資。
02:58
You are not convinced though, as lately, the company has experienced an increased level of competition.
然而，你並不信服，因為近來該公司面臨的競爭日益激烈。
03:05
Also, you realize that in order for MetFlip to reach an average PE ratio of about 20, it would need to increase its earnings by 15 times, which is a huge increase, especially if the company is large to begin with, and especially if the competition is increasing.
This example is, of course, a bit simplified, but the point is that investing in MetFlip at the current valuation cannot be considered investing, but it is more like gambling.
這個例子當然有點簡化，但重點是，以目前的估值投資MetFlip不能算是投資，而更像是賭博。
03:38
Favourable outcomes could perhaps increase the price a little bit, but it is already stretched at this point.
即使有利的結果可能會讓價格略微上漲，但目前的價格已經被高估了。
03:45
However, unfavorable outcomes would scare the s*** out of the investing community, and the price could drop by quite a lot, and still be expensive.
然而，不利的結果會嚇壞投資界，價格可能會大幅下跌，但仍然會被認為過高。
03:57
This is what is called a bad risk reward: small upside, large downside.
這就是所謂的不良風險回報：上漲空間小，下跌風險大。
04:05
And the opposite is also true; at a low price, favorable outcomes have a high expected return, and the unfavorable outcomes will only result in small losses, as they are anticipated and already accounted for in the stock price.
And low quality assets can be safe, it's just a matter of the price paid for them.
而低品質資產可能是安全的，這只是取決於你為它們支付的價格。
04:32
To finish off this part on risk, the most important thing is controlling risk.
關於風險的這一部分，最重要的事情是控制風險。
04:39
The road to long-term investing success runs through risk control more than aggressiveness.
通往長期投資成功的道路，更多地取決於風險控制，而非進取心。
04:45
Skillful risk control is the mark of the superior investor.
熟練的風險控制是優秀投資者的標誌。
04:50
Over an entire lifetime of investing, the result will have more to do with the sizes of investment losses than the magnitude of winners.
在整個投資生涯中，結果與投資損失的規模關係更大，而非盈利的幅度。
04:59
Warren Buffett is onto the same thing when he says that, “rule number one is, never lose money.” “Rule number two is, don't forget rule number one.” To make things more complicated though, the fact that the benefits of controlling risk
only comes in the form of losses that don't materialize, makes it difficult to measure.
只體現在未實現的損失上，這使得風險控制難以衡量。
05:24
Takeaway number two, be aware of these cycles.
第二個要點，要意識到這些週期。
05:29
Cycles will never stop occurring.
周期永遠不會停止發生。
05:32
If there was such a thing as a completely efficient market, and people really made decisions in a calculating and unemotional manner, perhaps cycles would be banished.
如果存在完全有效的市場，且人們真的以冷靜和非情緒化的方式做出決策，或許周期會被消除。
05:41
But that'll never be the case.
但這種情況永遠不會發生。
05:45
The most important thing is being aware of these cycles, as it's a tool that gives you an edge towards the market.
最重要的事是要意識到這些週期，因為這是一個能讓你在市場上佔優的工具。
05:53
Howard Marx compares the market to a pendulum that swings from one side to the other.
霍華德·馬克斯將市場比作一個擺錘，從一側擺動到另一側。
06:00
The extremes are the turning points at each end.
極端點是每一端的轉折點。
06:03
Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum on average, it spends very little time there.
雖然弧線的中點最能描述擺錘的平均位置，但它在中點停留的時間很少。
06:13
Instead, it's almost always swinging towards or away from the extremes of its arc, between euphoria and depression, between greed and fear, and between overpriced and underpriced.
Cycles are self-correcting, and they reverse on their own.
周期是自我修正的，它們會自行反轉。
06:31
Success creates the seeds of failure, and failure creates the seeds of success.
成功孕育著失敗的種子，而失敗也孕育著成功的種子。
06:40
But a trend is never-ending.
但趨勢永無止境。
06:42
When times are good, they believe that the trend will continue upward forever, and neglect risk.
當時機良好時，他們相信趨勢會永遠向上繼續，並忽視風險。
06:50
When times are bad, however, they focus only on vicious cycles that are self-feeding and believe that they will never end.
然而，當時機不佳時，他們只專注於自我強化的惡性循環，並認為這些循環永遠不會結束。
06:59
Howard's interpretation of today's market environment is that now is not the time to be aggressive.
霍華德對當今市場環境的解讀是，現在不是進取的時候。
07:05
Let's listen to some of Mr. Howard's own words from late 2018.
讓我們聽聽霍華德先生在2018年底的親口話語。
07:11
I firmly believe that I never know where we're going, but I think I know where we are.
我堅信我永遠不知道我們要去哪裡，但我認為我知道我們在哪裡。
07:17
Certainly with the recovery almost 10 years old and the whole market almost 10 years old, I think that the probabilities have shifted in a negative direction.
當然，隨著復甦幾乎已有10年，整個市場也幾乎有10年，我認為概率已經朝負面方向轉變。
07:27
Keep your eyes open and look for major turning points.
睜大眼睛，尋找重大轉折點。
07:30
Be aware of where we stand in the cycle at the moment, and you will tilt the odds in your favor.
要意識到我們當前在週期中所處的位置，這樣你就能將勝算傾向於你。
07:40
Segue number three, mind your psychological influences.
第三個過渡點，注意你的心理影響。
07:46
The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.
最大的投資錯誤並非來自資訊或分析因素，而是來自心理因素。
07:55
The most important thing is combating negative influences.
最重要的事是對抗負面影響。
08:00
Greed and fear, the occasional dismissal of logic and reason, being envious, ego, etc.
貪婪與恐懼、偶爾忽略邏輯和理性、嫉妒、自負等。
08:08
are all psychological forces that can have powerful negative influences.
都是可能產生強大負面影響的心理力量。
08:14
As Mr. Buffett puts it, “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” This translates well to Howard Marx's resemblance with the pendulum, remember?
As the S&P 500's PE ratio currently is at about 23, one can question how big the upside really is from here.
目前標普500的本益比約為23，人們不禁質疑從這裡上漲的空間究竟有多大。
08:36
It might be better risk reward right now not to go along with the HUD, but to instead play it safe on the sidelines.
現在可能更好的風險回報是不隨大流，而是在場邊謹慎觀望。
08:44
You know what you have, but not what you're gonna get.
你知道你擁有什麼，但不知道你將得到什麼。
08:48
Psychological traits are universal and become very powerful when affecting a group, which is then called herd behavior, and this can make whole populations make bad decisions.
心理特質是普遍的，當影響群體時會變得非常強大，這被稱為羊群行為，可能導致整個人口做出錯誤的決策。
09:01
This is to a large extent due to confirmation bias, where you confirm your wrong beliefs by the help of your peers and ignore information that contradicts your own worldview.
這在很大程度上是由於確認偏誤，你通過同儕的幫助確認你的錯誤信念，並忽略與你的世界觀相矛盾的資訊。
09:14
This is even more common during market extremes, again the pendulum, and results in mistakes that can damage your portfolio returns for a lifetime.
在市場極端情況下，這種現象更為常見，再次提到擺錘理論，可能導致錯誤，進而損害你的投資組合回報一生。
09:25
There are several guidelines that increase your odds of minding your psychological influences.
有幾個指導原則可以增加你控制心理影響的機會。
09:32
Stick to the concept of intrinsic value and margin of safety, that, for example, Benjamin Graham discusses in his The Intelligent Investor, by the way, link in the description.
Also, use the other principles from this video and try to look at the market from a sober point of view, and avoid investing when you're feeling greedy, envious, or fearful.
此外，使用本影片中的其他原則，並嘗試從清醒的角度看待市場，避免在感到貪婪、嫉妒或恐懼時進行投資。
09:59
Takeaway number four, don't be a sheep in a herd.
第四個要點，不要成為羊群中的一隻羊。
10:04
To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are euphorically buying takes the greatest courage, but provides the greatest profits.
在別人絕望拋售時買入，在別人狂熱買入時賣出，需要最大的勇氣，但能帶來最大的利潤。
10:15
Sir John Templeton The most important thing is contrarianism.
約翰·坦普頓爵士 最重要的事情是逆向思維。
10:21
While most investors just follow the current trend, the best investors a lot of time do just the opposite.
雖然大多數投資者只是跟隨當前趨勢，但最好的投資者很多時候卻反其道而行。
10:28
When there's a broad consensus among the investment community, it means that most investors have already acted, and the current price reflects those actions.
當投資界有廣泛共識時，意味著大多數投資者已經採取了行動，當前價格反映了這些行動。
10:40
If a lot of investors have bought a stock because current conditions are perceived as good, the price is then high.
如果許多投資者因為當前條件被認為良好而買入某股票，那麼價格就會上漲。
10:46
This leaves a lot of risk, but only a small upside.
這留下了很多風險，但上漲空間卻很小。
10:50
The opposite also holds true.
相反的情況也成立。
10:52
If the consensus of the market perceives a company to be in an unfavorable position, the price is often low, which reduces the risk and provides a large potential reward, if there would be any favorable news.
In the first phase, you must apply second level thinking, and make a judgement that contradicts the one of your peers.
在第一階段，你必須運用二級思維，並做出與同儕不同的判斷。
11:18
This requires both knowledge and confidence.
這需要知識和信心。
11:22
Secondly, you need to have stamina, because your predictions might not unfold directly.
其次，你需要有耐力，因為你的預測可能不會立即實現。
11:28
So as an example, while people were making tons of money in the dot com era, a person like Howard Mox waited on the sidelines, and saw everyone else getting richer had a rapid pace.
例如，在網路泡沫時代，當人們賺大錢時，像霍華德·馬克斯這樣的人卻在場邊觀望，眼看著其他人迅速致富。
11:43
The effort required to stay out of such a bubble should not be underestimated.
保持不參與這種泡沫所需的努力不容小覷。
11:48
As Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's right hand man says, “investing is not supposed to be easy.” “Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” Takeaway number five, the role of chance.
Randomness contributes to or wrecks investment records to a degree that few people appreciate fully.
隨機性在投資記錄中扮演的角色，其影響程度是很少有人完全理解的。
12:15
As a result, the dangers that lurking thus far successful strategies often are underrated.
因此，迄今為止成功策略中潛藏的危險往往被低估。
12:23
The most important thing is appreciating the role of luck.
最重要的事情是理解運氣的角色。
12:26
You cannot judge the propriety of an investment decision based on the outcome, which is also a rule for life in general.
你不能根據結果來判斷一個投資決策的適當性，這也是生活中的一個通則。
12:36
Sometimes good decisions produce bad outcomes, and sometimes bad decisions produce good outcomes.
有些時候，好的決策會導致壞的結果，而壞的決策卻可能帶來好的結果。
12:44
It's rather common that investors build their portfolios in order to maximize profits based on their forecasts of the unknown.
投資者經常根據對未知的預測來構建投資組合，以最大化利潤，這是相當常見的。
12:52
If, by random chance, their forecasts are correct, they are then perceived as geniuses, even though it may have been a bad investment that in fact was more likely to have gone the other way.
如果他們的預測碰巧正確，他們就會被視為天才，即使這可能是一個壞的投資，實際上更可能朝相反方向發展。
13:03
Every single day there are investors betting on a bear market.
每一天都有投資者押注熊市。
13:07
At some point, some of them will turn out to be right, but it does not automatically make them right in their forecast.
在某個時點，其中一些人會被證明是正確的，但這並不自動使他們的預測正確。
13:15
It may just have been luck.
這可能只是運氣罷了。
13:16
An intelligent investor will invest in a way that limits his downside, but which leaves a large upside.
聰明的投資者會以限制下行風險，但保留巨大上行潛力的方式進行投資。
13:25
High priority should be placed on limiting the exposure to risk and random events that could severely damage returns.
限制風險和可能嚴重損害回報的隨機事件的暴露應被置於高優先級。
13:32
Again, Mr. Buffett, “never lose money.” That is how you get compounding to work for you.
再次強調，巴菲特先生說：「永遠不要虧錢。」這就是讓複利為你效力的方法。
13:39
By the way, check out my other video on The Snowball, which explains compounding more in detail, how you get the 8th wonder of the world working for you.
順帶一提，可以看看我關於《雪球》的另一支影片，詳細解釋複利如何運作，讓你體會世界第八大奇蹟的威力。
13:52
Phew, thank you Howard, that was a lot of new knowledge.
嗚呼，謝謝你，霍華德，剛剛學到很多新知識。
13:57
Am I the only one who is in need of a recap right now?
我是唯一需要回顧一下的人嗎？
14:01
Pay attention to risk.
注意風險。
14:03
Control risk by figuring out what an asset is worth and compare that to what it costs.
透過計算資產的價值並與其成本比較來控制風險。
14:10
Insist on a margin of safety.
堅持安全邊際。
14:13
Think about where in the market cycle we're at right now.
思考目前市場週期的位置。
14:17
Is the market greedy or is it fearful?
市場現在是貪婪還是恐懼？
14:20
Avoid psychological errors by focusing on fundamentals.
專注於基本面，避免心理錯誤。
14:26
Only dead fish follow the stream.
只有死魚才會隨波逐流。
14:29
Be a contrarian.
做一個逆向投資者。
14:30
Sum out and use the movement of the herd to your advantage.
總結並利用群眾的動向為你所用。
14:36
Remember, some bad decisions produce good outcomes.
記住，有些壞決定可能帶來好結果。
14:41
Therefore, an investment decision can never be judged on its outcome alone.
因此，投資決策不能僅從結果來評判。
14:48
If you feel a bit dizzy now, don't worry, it's just the new knowledge being processed by your brain.
