Financial DNA We all come from different generations, with
parents earning different incomes and holding different values, living in various parts
of the world, born into different economic
environments with varying incentives and varying
opportunities, we all have very different experiences towards money.
環境中，面臨著不同的誘因和機會，我們對金錢的體驗截然不同。
01:09
Take for example the stock market and inflation.
以股票市場和通貨膨脹為例。
01:12
People born in 1970 saw an almost tenfold
increase in the S&P 500 during their teens and 20s, leading most to have a positive view
of the stock market and a higher inclination to invest.
People born in 1950 saw the stock market go
nowhere in their teens and 20s, leading to a more negative view of the stock market and
less inclination to invest.
People born in the 1960s experienced significant
inflation during their teens and 20s, leading to a higher awareness and more negative view
of inflation and its effects.
People born in 1990 experienced relatively
low inflation during their lifetime, leading to less concern and awareness of its effects.
1990 年出生的人，一生中經歷的通貨膨脹相對較低，這導致他們對通膨的影響關注度和認知度較低。
01:47
A person's experience with the stock market
and inflation during their formative years greatly shapes their attitudes and behavior
towards investing and financial decision-making.
一個人在成長時期對股票市場和通貨膨脹的經驗，極大地塑造了他們對投資和財務決策的態度和行為。
01:57
People justify every financial decision they
make based on the information they have at that moment and their mental model of the
world, which has been passed onto them from their parents and is shaped by their unique
life experiences.
Although they can be misinformed, lack information
or make bad decisions, their actions make sense to them in that moment and align with
their own personal story.
According to Housel, “People do some crazy
things with money.
根據豪索爾的說法，「人們會用錢做一些瘋狂的事。
02:20
But no one is crazy.” We all have unique worldviews and since there
is no universally correct way to manage money successfully, none of us are crazy.
但沒有人是瘋子。」我們都有獨特的世界觀，而且既然沒有普遍正確的成功理財方式，我們都不是瘋子。
02:29
WE MAKE FINANCIAL DECISIONS BASED ON OUR PERSONAL
LIFE EXPERIENCES AND OUR WORLDVIEW.
我們根據個人的生活經驗和世界觀做出財務決策。
02:53
Compound Kings There is no doubt that Warren Buffett is considered
one of the greatest investors of all time.
複利之王 毫無疑問，華倫·巴菲特被認為是有史以來最偉大的投資者之一。
03:02
What is staggering is that $81.5 billion of
Warren Buffet's $84.5 billion net worth was earned after he reached his mid-sixties.
令人震驚的是，華倫·巴菲特 845 億美元淨資產中的 815 億美元，是在他六十多歲之後才賺到的。
03:11
Housel explains that “few pay enough attention
to the simplest fact: Buffett’s fortune isn’t due to just being a good investor,
but being a good investor since he was literally a child.”
As a result of investing from the early age
of 10, Buffet was able to harness the power of compounding.
由於從 10 歲就開始投資，巴菲特得以發揮複利的威力。
03:27
Let's say you invest $1,000 at an interest
rate of 8%.
假設你以 8% 的利率投資 1,000 美元。
03:31
Your initial investment would earn you $80
after one year.
你的初始投資在一年後會為你賺取 80 美元。
03:34
If you compounded your total of $1080 at 8%
interest the next year, you would now earn $86.4 You've earned money on your initial investment
as well as the interest you earned on the
An investment compounded over time gains interest
not only from the original investment but also from the interest generated on top of
the original investment.
隨時間複利的投資，不僅從原始投資中獲得利息，還從原始投資產生的利息中再產生利息。
03:54
The counterintuitive nature of compounding
makes many of us not realize how extreme the results can be.
複利的反直覺特性，讓我們許多人沒有意識到其結果可以多麼極端。
03:58
Compounding, however, can help you earn more
money over time.
然而，複利可以幫助你隨時間賺取更多錢。
03:59
Warren Buffett began serious investing at
age 10 and had a net worth of $1 million by age 30.
華倫·巴菲特在 10 歲開始認真投資，並在 30 歲時擁有 100 萬美元的淨資產。
04:05
Let’s imagine an alternate reality where
Warren Buffet behaved more like most young men in their 20’s and used a lot of his
early income on traveling and a few nice cars.
If he started with a net worth of $25,000
at age 30 and retired at 60, but continued to generate the amazing average returns of
22% annually - his net worth today would be
The net worth of Simons however is 21 billion
- which is 75% less than Buffett's.
然而，西蒙斯的淨資產為210億美元，比巴菲特少了75%。
05:08
How is this possible?
這怎麼可能？
05:09
According to Housel, the reason for this is
that Simons wasn't able to find his stride in investing until he was 50 years old.
根據豪索（Housel）的說法，原因是西蒙斯直到50歲才在投資上找到自己的步調。
05:15
Effectively giving him less than half as many
years to compound as Buffett.
這讓他用來複利的年數實際上不到巴菲特的一半。
05:19
Housel estimates that if he had invested over
a time frame as long as Buffett, his net worth today would be…..
豪索估計，如果他的投資時間跨度和巴菲特一樣長，他今天的淨資產將會是……
05:25
“sixty-three quintillion nine hundred quadrillion
seven hundred and eighty-one trillion seven hundred eighty billion seven hundred and forty-eight
million one hundred sixty thousand dollars.” ($63,900,781,780,748,160,000)
It's important not to underestimate the power
of compounding.
不要低估複利的力量是很重要的。
05:37
No matter how counterintuitive the results
of compounding may seem, they should never be ignored.
無論複利的結果看起來多麼違反直覺，都不應被忽視。
05:59
Pessimism and money.
悲觀與金錢。
06:03
Optimism is a belief that the odds of a good
outcome are in your favor over time, even if there are setbacks along the way, but when
it comes to money, we all have a bias toward pessimism that we hold dear in our hearts.
Looking back however, things have generally
improved over the years.
然而回顧過去，多年來情況普遍有所改善。
06:18
So what is it about pessimism that we are
inclined to embrace rather than optimism?
那麼，我們為何傾向於擁抱悲觀而非樂觀？
06:22
The answer is because GOOD THINGS TAKE TIME
and don’t happen overnight.
答案是因為好事需要時間，不會在一夜之間發生。
06:26
Money is a subject that attracts pessimism
for a variety of reasons.
金錢是一個因多種原因而吸引悲觀看法的主題。
06:30
Let's start with the fact that money matters
to all of us.
讓我們先從金錢對每個人都很重要的事實說起。
06:32
When we hear about something bad happening
in the economy, we're more likely to pay attention.
當我們聽到經濟發生壞事時，我們更有可能會注意到。
06:37
For example, a 40% decline in the stock market
over six months is likely to attract attention immediately and may even attract government
intervention.
例如，股市在六個月內下跌 40%，很可能會立即引起關注，甚至可能引發政府干預。
06:45
However The incremental nature of a 140% gain
over six years can go largely unnoticed.
然而，六年間累計上漲 140% 的漸進過程，卻可能在很大程度上被忽視。
06:50
Every year, half a million American lives
are saved by the progress of medicine over the last 50 years.
每年，由於過去 50 年醫學的進步，有 50 萬美國人的生命得以挽救。
06:55
Slow progress, however, attracts less attention
than quick, sudden losses such as terrorism, plane crashes, and natural disasters.
然而，緩慢的進步比突如其來的快速損失（如恐怖主義、空難和自然災害）吸引的關注更少。
07:03
There are many overnight tragedies, but few
overnight miracles.
一夜之間發生的悲劇很多，但一夜之間發生的奇蹟卻很少。
07:07
To be practical, we don't have to be pessimistic.
實際一點，我們不必悲觀。
07:09
Despite setbacks, we can hold onto the belief
that over time, the odds of a positive outcome are in our favor.
儘管遭遇挫折，我們仍應堅信，隨著時間的推移，出現正面結果的機率對我們有利。
07:15
When watching the news highlighting a stock
market crash, economic woes, or other money problems - try to remember that things tend
to improve over time.
當看到新聞報導股市崩盤、經濟困境或其他金錢問題時，試著記住，事情往往會隨著時間的推移而改善。
07:42
Two Forgotten Elements.
兩個被遺忘的要素。
07:44
In 1968, there were roughly 300 million high-school-age
people in the world, and of those 300 million, 300 students attended a small school in Seattle
called Lakeside.
Lakeside happened to be the only high school
in the world at the time that had a professor with the foresight to lease a computer, the
Teletype Model 30.
Lakeside 恰好是當時世界上唯一一所擁有具遠見、租用了電腦（Teletype Model 30）的教授的高中。
08:04
This was no ordinary computer, it was advanced
for the time and the type of computer that even Graduate students didn’t have access
to.
這不是一台普通的電腦，它在當時非常先進，是連研究生都無法接觸到的類型。
08:11
And for one lucky student at Lakeside this
would change everything.
對於 Lakeside 的一名幸運學生來說，這將改變一切。
08:15
That student was Bill Gates.
那名學生就是比爾·蓋茲。
08:17
From 300 million to 300.
從 3 億人到 300 人。
08:20
In 1968 there was roughly a one in a million
chance of being a high school student with access to a computer.
1968 年，一名高中生能接觸到電腦的機率大約是百萬分之一。
08:26
Bill Gates and his school mate Paul Allen,
would go on to create Microsoft together.
比爾·蓋茲和他的同學保羅·艾倫後來一起創辦了微軟。
08:30
Even as a teenager, Gates showed exceptional
intelligence, hard work, and a vision for computers unlike anyone else.
即使在青少年時期，蓋茲就展現出了非凡的智力、勤奮的工作態度，以及不同於任何人的電腦遠見。
08:36
But going to Lakeside also gave him a one-in-a-million
competitive advantage and head start.
但就讀湖濱中學也為他賦予了千載難逢的競爭優勢和領先起點。
08:41
And Gates is not shy about this, in 2005 he
said “If there had been no Lakeside, there would have been no Microsoft,” What is not often mentioned in the early Microsoft
story was a third member of this gang of
Kent could very well have been one of the
founders of Microsoft, Alongside Gates and Allen.
肯特本極有可能成為微軟的創始人之一，與蓋茲和艾倫並肩同行。
09:03
However, that would never happen.
然而，這一切永遠不會發生。
09:04
A mountaineering accident took Kent's life
before he graduated high school.
一場登山意外奪走了肯特的生命，就在他高中畢業之前。
09:08
The odds of a high school student being killed
in a mountaineering accident are around one in a million.
高中生死於登山意外的機率大約是百萬分之一。
09:13
Just as the extremely rare stroke of luck
would propel Bill Gates and Paul Allen to great success.
正如極其罕見的好運推動了比爾・蓋茲和保羅・艾倫走向巨大成功一樣。
09:17
Kent Evans would experience an extremely rare
event and an encounter with what housel calls the close sibling of luck, risk.
肯特・伊凡斯卻遭遇了極其罕見的事件，碰上了豪斯爾所說的運氣的近親——風險。
09:25
Luck and risk are like the wind and the waves
that determine the course of a sailboat.
運氣和風險就像風和浪，決定著帆船的航向。
09:29
The sailor can control the rudder and the
sails, but ultimately the direction and speed of the boat are influenced by external factors
that cannot be fully predicted or controlled.
水手可以控制船舵和船帆，但船隻的最終方向和速度，仍受到無法完全預測或控制的外部因素影響。
09:38
The pursuit of success is full of twists and
turns, and the role luck and risk play in shaping our lives is an important perspective
to keep in mind.
追求成功的過程充滿曲折，而運氣和風險在塑造我們人生中所扮演的角色，是我們必須牢記的重要視角。
09:46
Understanding that Success is a complex combination
of factors, including both talent and luck can help us approach our own financial decisions
with greater humility and perspective.
People want to become wealthier to make themselves
happier, but according to Housel “ the key to happiness is the ability to do what you
want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want”
The pursuit of material wealth has led to
many people working harder and giving up more control over their time, despite being richer
than ever before.
However, studies show that having control
over your life is the most dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing, more than
your salary, house size, or career prestige.
Ultimately, controlling your time is the highest
dividend money pays.
終究，掌控自己的時間是金錢支付的最高股息。
10:55
Pursuing money without valuing time is like
filling a bucket with a hole in it.
追求金錢而不重視時間，就像用一個有破洞的桶子裝水。
10:58
No matter how much water you pour in, it will
continue to leak out.
不論你倒進多少水，它都會繼續漏光。
11:01
Similarly, no matter how much money you accumulate,
it won't bring lasting happiness if you don't have control over your time and can't enjoy
the fruits of your labor.
He collected a massive amount of art, including
works by famous artists like Picasso, Klee and Matisse.
他收藏了大量的藝術品，包括畢卡索、克利和馬蒂斯等著名藝術家的作品。
11:41
In 2000, he sold part of his collection for
over 100 million euros.
2000 年，他出售了部分收藏，金額超過 1 億歐元。
11:46
What was his secret to acquiring so many masterpieces?
他能收購這麼多大師之作的秘訣是什麼？
11:49
Was it skill, Was it luck?
是靠技術，還是靠運氣？
11:51
According to Horizon, a Research firm, great
investors buy vast quantities of art and hold onto them for a long period of time.
根據研究機構 Horizon 的說法，偉大的投資者會買進大量的藝術品，並長期持有。
11:58
They wait for a few of those paintings to
become well known and worth a lot of money, even though most of the paintings they bought
were not worth very much.
他們等待其中少數畫作變得廣為人知且身價不凡，儘管他們買進的大部分畫作當時價值並不高。
12:04
In other words, it's not about being right
all the time, but having a diversified portfolio and waiting for a few winners to emerge.
換句話說，重點不在於每次都判斷正確，而在於擁有多元化的投資組合，並等待少數贏家浮現。
12:12
Perhaps 99% of the works someone like Berggruen
acquired in his life turned out to be of little value.
像伯格格倫這樣的人一生中收購的作品，也許有 99% 最終證明價值不高。
12:18
He could be wrong most of the time, But that
doesn’t particularly matter if the other 1% turn out to be the work of someone like
Picasso.
他可能大部分時間都錯了，但如果那剩下的 1% 是像畢卡索這樣大師的作品，那就無關緊要了。
12:25
These events are known as long tails.
這些事件被稱為長尾（long tails）。
12:27
When a small number of events can account
for the majority of outcomes.
意即少數事件卻能解釋大部分的結果。
12:31
The long tails of Berggruen's art collection
are what led to his ultimate fortune.
伯格格倫藝術收藏的長尾效應，正是他最終致富的原因。
12:36
The story of Berggruen teaches us a valuable
lesson about investing and this long tail concept also applies to many aspects of business
and investing.
伯格格倫的故事教給我們關於投資的寶貴一課，而這個長尾概念也適用於商業與投資的許多層面。
12:44
The obvious example is Venture Capital.
最明顯的例子就是創投（Venture Capital）。
12:46
Most of the startups in a VC fund will fail
and lose money for the fund, but all they need are a few outlier startups which make
20x + returns to make up for losses.
In 2018, it drove 6% of the return on the
S&P 500 even though it is just one company.
2018 年，它推動了 S&P 500 指數 6% 的報酬，即便它只是一家公司。
13:04
If we look inside Amazon.
如果我們深入檢視亞馬遜。
13:05
Its growth was largely driven by two tail
events: Amazon Prime and Amazon Web Services.
它的成長主要由兩大尾部事件推動：Amazon Prime 與 Amazon Web Services。
13:11
These two products alone more than made up
for all of Amazon’s less successful experiments, such as the Fire Phone or travel agencies.
僅這兩項產品，就彌補了亞馬遜所有不太成功的實驗，例如 Fire Phone 或旅行社業務。
13:19
After the disastrous release of the Amazon
Fire phone, rather than apologizing to shareholders, Jeff Bezos said: “If you think that’s a big failure, we’re
working on much bigger failures right now.
在 Amazon Fire phone 災難性的發布之後，Jeff Bezos 並未向股東道歉，而是說：「如果你認為那是個大失敗，我們現在正在進行的專案，失敗規模要大得多。
13:28
I am not kidding.
我不是在開玩笑。
13:29
Some of them are going to make the Fire Phone
look like a tiny little blip” Bezos understands that it is OK to make mistakes
and fail with most products if the process creates the 1% of Tail event products that
drive everything.
其中有些專案會讓 Fire Phone 看起來像個微不足道的小插曲。」Bezos 深知，犯錯並讓大多數產品失敗是可以接受的，只要這個過程能創造出那 1% 驅動一切的尾部事件產品。
13:40
Tail events are mostly unintuitive and hidden
from us because we only see the finished products and not all the failures along the way that
led to that finished product.
尾部事件大多違反直覺且隱藏於我們視線之外，因為我們只看到成品，而沒有看到通往該成品的所有失敗過程。
13:49
Housel in the book uses a real life example
of a stand up comedian.
Housel 在書中引用了一位脫口秀喜劇演員的真實案例。
13:52
When you are watching the Netflix special
you are saying to yourself, Wow this comedian is amazing.
當你在看 Netflix 特輯時，你會對自己說，哇，這位喜劇演員太厲害了。
13:57
What you aren't seeing are all the trial and
error failed jokes that the comedian tried out in small clubs all around the country
before doing the special.
你看不到的是這位喜劇演員在全國各地的小型俱樂部中，為了這場特輯所嘗試過的所有試驗與失敗的笑話。
14:05
The Netflix special is the 1% compendium of
all the tail event jokes that actually made people laugh.
Netflix 特輯是那 1% 的精華，彙整了所有真正讓人發笑的尾部事件笑話。
14:10
99% of the jokes along the way were probably
just OK.
沿途 99% 的笑話可能都還好。
14:14
When it comes to investing Even though long
tails are prevalent, most of us ignore them.
談到投資，儘管長尾現象非常普遍，但我們大多數人都忽略了它。
14:18
When things go wrong, we tend to overreact.
當事情出錯時，我們往往會過度反應。
14:20
As soon as you accept that tails drive everything
in business, investing, and finance, you realize lots of things may go wrong, fail or fall
apart.
一旦你接受尾部事件驅動了商業、投資與金融中的一切，你就會意識到很多事情可能會出錯、失敗或分崩離析。
14:27
Remember: Out of the nearly 500 stocks Warren Buffet
has picked, only 10 have made the majority of his money.
Good Stock pickers will only be right half
of the time.
優秀的選股者，正確的機率也只有一半。
14:36
Good leaders will only make good decisions
half of the time.
優秀的領導者，做出好決策的時間也只有一半。
14:39
The fact that you might be wrong sometimes
doesn't mean that things won't work out over time.
你有時可能會犯錯，這並不意味著事情不會隨著時間推移而好轉。
14:43
In the end, the outcome can be determined
by only a small number of events.
最終，結果可能只由少數事件決定。
15:04
True Wealth VS Being Rich It's so important to understand the difference
between being rich and being wealthy.Richness is about your current income and the things
you own, while wealth is about the financial
真正的財富 VS 有錢 理解「有錢」（Rich）和「富有」（Wealthy）之間的區別非常重要。有錢關乎你目前的收入和擁有的東西，
15:16
assets you have yet to spend.
而財富則是你尚未花費的金融資產。
15:18
True wealth isn't what you see, but what you
don't.
真正的財富不是你所看到的，而是你看不到的。
15:21
It's easy to assume that someone driving a
Lambhorghini is wealthy, but appearances can be deceiving.
人們很容易認為開藍寶基尼的人就是富有，但外表可能具有欺騙性。
15:26
In reality, many individuals are living beyond
their means and relying on debt to fund their flashy lifestyles.
現實中，許多人入不敷出，依靠債務來維持他們光鮮亮麗的生活方式。
15:32
Wealth isn't about the cars you drive, the
diamond rings or the homes you own; it's about those financial assets that you have yet to
spend.
財富不在於你開的車、戴的鑽戒或擁有的房產；而在於你尚未花費的那些金融資產。
15:38
Accumulating wealth takes self-control and
restraint.
積累財富需要自制力和約束力。
15:41
The diamonds, watches, and first-class upgrades
that you decline all contribute to your overall wealth.
你拒絕購買的鑽石、手錶和升級頭等艙的機會，都有助於增加你的整體財富。
15:47
It's easy to find rich role models who spend
lavishly, but true wealth is hidden and therefore harder to imitate.
找到揮霍無度的有錢榜樣很容易，但真正的財富是隱藏的，因此更難模仿。
15:53
We're conditioned to believe that having money
means spending money, but the real key to building wealth is to save and invest the
money you have.
我們從小被灌輸有錢就要花錢的觀念，但積累財富的真正關鍵是儲蓄和投資你手中的錢。
15:59
In fact, the only way to be wealthy is to
not spend the money that you do have.
事實上，變得富有的唯一方法就是不花你現有的錢。
16:03
The next time you see someone driving a fancy
car or living in a big house, remember that you can't judge wealth by appearances alone.
下次你看到有人開豪車或住大房子時，請記住，你不能僅憑外表來判斷財富。
16:09
The true key to wealth is self-control, restraint,
building assets and investing in your future.
財富的真正關鍵在於自制、節制、建立資產以及投資未來。
16:33
The Real Price Imagine you are climbing a mountain with the
goal of reaching the peak and admiring the amazing view.
真實的代價 想像你正在爬山，目標是到達山頂並欣賞壯麗的景色。
16:42
Maybe you will get sunshine that day, maybe
rain.
那天也許陽光明媚，也許大雨傾盆。
16:44
You may get lost, you might fall and injure
yourself….The difficulty of the climb is not always apparent until you're in the thick
of it.
你可能會迷路，可能會跌倒受傷……攀登的艱難往往只有在你身處其中時才會顯現。
16:50
From the ground looking up the path to take
may seem obvious, but along the way you will certainly need to reassess and change your
path to the peak.
從山腳往上看，前進的路徑似乎顯而易見，但在途中，你肯定需要重新評估並改變通往山頂的路線。
16:57
You are under no illusion however that there
will be some golden escalator that will safely take you to the peak.
然而，你很清楚不會有自動扶梯安全地把你送到山頂。
17:02
You understand before the climb that this
uncertainty and risk is just the price you have to pay to get to the top.
在攀登之前你要明白，這種不確定性和風險，正是為了抵達山頂所必須付出的代價。
17:08
But when it comes to investing in the stock
market, many people think they can avoid the uncertainty and risk and get something for
nothing.
但在投資股市時，很多人卻認為他們可以避開不確定性和風險，不勞而獲。
17:16
Housel likens the stock market to getting
a new car.
豪索（Housel）把投資股市比作買車。
17:18
If you want to get a car, you have three options.
如果你想擁有一輛車，你有三個選擇。
17:21
You can buy a new car, buy a used one, or
steal one.
你可以買新車、買中古車，或是偷一輛車。
17:24
The new car is a higher price, but the reward
is greater.
新車價格較高，但回報也較大。
17:28
Think of the new car like aiming for 12% returns
from the stock market.
新車就好比以股市 12% 的報酬率為目標。
17:31
The used car is cheaper, but also comes with
less reward.
中古車比較便宜，但回報也較少。
17:34
The used car is like a much safer investment
but only returns 4% per year.
中古車就像是一種安全得多的投資，但每年只有 4% 的回報。
17:38
Stealing a car, is like trying to get something
for nothing.
偷車，就好比試圖不勞而獲。
17:41
99% of people would avoid stealing the car
because the consequences outweigh the benefits.
99% 的人會避免偷車，因為後果大於好處。
17:46
However when it comes to the stock market,
people seem to be under the impression that they can take option three, and steal from
the market.
然而，在股市方面，人們似乎覺得他們可以選擇第三個選項，從市場中「偷取」獲利。
17:52
They try all kinds of tricks and strategies
to get good market returns without paying the price.
他們嘗試各種技巧和策略，試圖在不付出代價的情況下獲得良好的市場回報。
17:58
Attempting to sell right before a dip or buy
right before a boom.
試圖在下跌前賣出，或在繁榮前買入。
18:01
Consider, for example, wanting to earn an
11% annual return over thirty years in preparation for your retirement.
舉例來說，假設你想在退休前的三十年內，每年賺取 11% 的回報。
18:07
From 1950 to 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average has returned about 11% per year.
從 1950 年到 2019 年，道瓊工業平均指數的年均回報率約為 11%。
18:14
Over those 69 years however, of course there
were many high highs and low lows.
然而，在這 69 年間，當然經歷了許多高峰與低谷。
18:19
For many the sight of their investments going
up and down can be traumatic, so they try to get in and out quickly, without paying
the price of volatility and uncertainty over the long term, akin to trying to steal the
car.
