I'm not recommending that people buy stocks today or tomorrow or next week or next month.
我不建議大家今天、明天、下週或下個月就買股票。
00:05
I think it all depends on your circumstances, but you shouldn't buy stocks unless you expect in my view. You expect to hold them for a very extended period and you were prepared financially and psychologically to hold them. 2026 is almost near and the market conditions are very unique.
We have the Fed just starting to cut interest rates, which is traditionally a good sign for stocks.
我們看到聯準會剛開始降息，這傳統上對股市是個好兆頭。
00:27
We have this new quite extreme tariff policy, which is traditionally not good for business, and we have high stock prices, the buffer indicator signaling red, and a country with over 36 trillion dollars in public debt. In this video we will look to get Buffett's opinion on three
things. General investing advice for these conditions, should we be buying stocks or selling, and how much cash should we have? The most perplexing thing about Warren Buffett's portfolio right now is the cash. He holds more cash than public US stocks. Today, Berkshire holds over 300 billion
dollars in cash and short-term investments representing about 27% of total assets, a historically high figure compared to the 13% average over the last 25 years. This has also led Berkshire to effectively own nearly 5% of the entire US treasury market. Beyond the need for
liquidity to meet insurance obligations, is the decision to raise cash primarily a de-risking strategy in response to high market valuations? Or is it also a deliberate effort to position Berkshire's balance sheet for a smoother leadership transition, providing Greg Abel with maximum
flexibility and a clean slate for future capital allocation decisions? Are you encouraged? You may see some fat pitches coming your way. Well, I wouldn't do anything nearly so novel as to withhold. Investing myself just so that Greg could look good later on.
Now, the amount of cash we have is we would spend, well, we came pretty close to spending 10 billion, not that long ago, for example. But we spend a hundred billion. I mean, those decisions are not
tough to make. One something has offered that makes sense to us and that we understand and offers good value and where we don't worry about losing. We would rather have, if we've got 335 billion
但五年內發生的可能性並非不可能。所以，這就是最直接的答案了。
02:38
now in charge of each, we would rather have conditions that are developed where we would have like 50 billion or something like that. But that just isn't the way the business works.
And we have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times. That's a trigger run. And every now and then you find something and occasionally, very occasionally, but it'll happen again that I don't know when it could be next week. It could be five years off,
but it won't be 50 years off. We will have, we will be bombarded with offerings that we'll be glad we have the cash for. And it'd be a lot more fun if it would happen tomorrow, but it's very unlikely to happen tomorrow. Very, very unlikely to happen tomorrow,
所以，如果市場現在如此昂貴，下一個合乎邏輯的問題是，我們應該賣出股票嗎？
03:29
but it's not unlikely to happen in five years. So that is about as straightforward as it gets.
再次，我將參考巴菲特的做法來尋找答案。
03:34
He has so much cash at Berkshire because he can't find any reasonable opportunities to invest the cash in. He wants to invest it. He's always looking to invest, but the market right now is not offering him the value for money that he normally likes when buying stocks. To put
it simply, prices are too high relative to fundamentals. The average stock in the market is selling for 30 times the price of the earnings that it brings in. This is about double the historical average of 16 or twice as expensive. So when stocks are so expensive, what else can you do, but simply
build up the cash position? So, if the market is so expensive right now, the next logical question is should we sell stocks?
累積現金部位？所以，如果現在市場如此昂貴，下一個合乎邏輯的問題是，我們應該賣出股票嗎？
04:35
Again, I'm going to look to what Buffett has done to try and get an answer.
再次，我將參考巴菲特所做的，試圖找到答案。
04:38
In 2025, these numbers don't include Q4 because Q4 has not been released, but in 2025, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold a total of 21 stocks. If you add all of these sales together, it amounts to 9.59% of the portfolio, or around $25.6 billion worth of stock.
So that selling is by no means minimal in the latest financial year. If you compare that to the amount of stocks that he bought, he bought 29 different stocks in 2025, which is 8 more than the stocks he sold. However, his buys were much smaller in size compared to the stock sold. In
total, 4.72% of the portfolio was bought, which amounts to around $12.6 billion. To put simply, he sold twice as many stocks as he did in buying. This doesn't necessarily mean that we need to sell all of our stocks too, but we do need to be a bit conservative. We're managing our portfolio,
Great data by stocks. I know it will work out over 20 or 30 years. I don't know whether it'll work out over two years at all. I have no idea whether you'll be a header behind on a stock you buy on Monday morning. If you look at the stocks that Warren Buffett bought with Berkshire, spoiler alert, they were not Nvidia. They were not Palantir. They were certainly not
Coinbase stock. They were these interesting out-of-the-blue value plays that I certainly didn't see coming.
Coinbase 股票。它們是那些我絕對沒預料到的、出人意料的價值股。
06:27
United help stock, the stock that fell 50% this year after all of the drama with its CEO and what happened. I actually think that this is still a value play because the prices stay down, and earnings have now fully recovered from the drop. It's selling still at a P ratio of 16.
聯合健康股票，這支股票今年在經歷了與其 CEO 的所有戲碼以及發生的事情後下跌了 50%。我實際上認為這仍然是一檔價值股，因為股價保持低迷，而且收益已經從下跌中完全恢復。它仍然以 16 倍的本益比交易。
06:43
Other interesting money bought was Google, which I don't know if this was Buffett or not, but it was a relatively large buy, which Buffett is normally the guy that does the bigger buys.
And who knows, this may be a similar play to what he did with Apple a decade or so ago, where he did not see Apple as a technology business necessarily, but more a consumer-oriented business that people just were stuck in their ecosystem and had to buy from. Google has been killing it
in terms of net income these past few years, basically printing money. Sales too have shown a similar sort of growth. And up until a few months ago, you could have snapped up this stock for P ratio around the 20 mark, which again is really cheap in the market that we are in.
So if we go by what Buffett is doing and we apply it to ourselves, be careful about buying highly speculative growth stocks in this market and look more towards the conservative ones that have been overlooked. The beauty of stocks is they do sell at silly prices from time to time.
I mean, that's how Charlie and I have gotten rich. Ben Graham writes about it in chapter eight of the intelligent investor. Well, chapters eight and chapters 20 are really all you need to do to get rich in this world. And chapter eight says that in the market, you're going to have a partner named Mr. Market. And the beauty of him as your partner is that he's kind of a psychotic drunk.
And he will do very weird things over time. And your job is to remember that he's there to serve you and not to advise you. And if you can keep that mental state that all those thousands of prices that Mr. Market is offering you every day on every major business in the world, practically, that he is making lots of mistakes. And he makes them for all kinds of weird reasons.
And all you have to do is occasionally oblige him when he offers to either buy yourself from you at the same price on any given day and a given security. So it's built into the system that stocks get mispriced. Right now, Mr. Market is selling most of his stocks for high
prices. Nvidia, Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Shopify, to name a few. But there are opportunities here and there where he is losing his head and selling them cheaply. UnitedHealth is one buffet type example of this. But the only reason it's relative to Buffett is because the company
is so large and he can only buy large market cap companies because his investing fund is so big that only big companies move the needle. But this is where we have an advantage. We can invest in basically any company no matter how small. And if that company goes up, we will see a
noticeable benefit to our network. This is why Buffett says to look at everything small.
對我們的淨資產有明顯的好處。這就是為什麼巴菲特說要關注所有小型公司。
09:08
We assume that there are reasonable number of opportunities as you work with smaller amounts of capital because it's always been true. I mean, it was over the years as I looked at things, clearly, you run into companies that are less followed as you get smaller and there's more chances for inefficiency when you're dealing with something where you can buy $100,000 worth
of it in a month rather than $100 million. I do think if you're working with very small amounts of money that they're almost always or some significant inefficiency someplace to find things.
So basically what this means, instead of looking at Amazon or Apple or Tesla or Nvidia and expect these stocks to hold up the entire global economy, we should instead look at the stocks that no one is looking at. The small market caps. Warren Buffett, he likes simple and easy to understand
businesses. So if he had tiny amounts of money today, he would perhaps be looking at the likes of Douglas Dynamics, the Snowplow equipment manufacturer, strong and consistent sales, same with net income, or Park National Corporation, a conservatively run community bank with a long
業務。所以如果他今天有少量資金，他可能會關注像 Douglas Dynamics 這樣的公司，這是一家鏟雪設備製造商，銷售額和淨收益都很強勁且穩定；或者 Park National Corporation，這是一家經營保守的社區銀行，擁有悠久的
10:08
dividend history, or in this Inc, a microcap that generates steady free cash flow and has minimal debt. All three of these companies have low market caps that around a billion dollar market will take and most importantly have a low price relative to fundamentals. If you use Forecaster,
股息歷史；或者 in this Inc，這是一家產生穩定自由現金流且債務極少的小型股公司。這三家公司都有較低的市值，大約在 10 億美元左右，最重要的是，它們的股價相對於基本面較低。如果你使用 Forecaster，
10:24
who are the sponsor of today's video and you click on fundamentals and go to raw data, you'll be able to get a deep history of a company's fundamentals and you can map it out with a graph. So in the case of Ennis Inc, you can see within net income, they have been pretty consistent for the past 20 years. Obviously they had the two periods where they made negative, but other than
誰是今天影片的贊助商，您點擊「基本面」然後進入「原始數據」，就能獲得公司基本面的深度歷史數據，並能用圖表繪製出來。以 Ennis Inc. 為例，您可以看到在過去 20 年裡，他們的淨收入相當穩定。顯然有兩個時期出現負值，但除此之外，
10:44
that, pretty good. Or look at Douglas Dynamics, they're actually growing their revenue at around the 15% mark yearly. So that's pretty good for a stock that has a P ratio of under 20.
相當不錯。或者看看 Douglas Dynamics，他們的年收入實際上是以約 15% 的幅度增長。對於本益比低於 20 的股票來說，這相當不錯。
10:55
Net income has also been pretty consistent, obviously apart from that year where they had that big loss. And I'm not saying go and buy these stocks, but I also just wanted to give you some examples to get you started on the treasure hunt for some small cap gems. So what you should do is look at 100 stocks and then you buy one. Remember that those who turn over the most rocks
win, so start looking. But there is one thing that we do need to be careful about when it comes to America and American stocks. We're operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period of time. We don't know whether that means two years or 20 years, because there's never been a country like the United States, but you know that if something
can't go on forever, it will end the cold and herb snive famous economist, then we are doing something that is unsustainable. This is a graph from the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louise. Over the past 100 years, the USA has run a surplus only eight times and every other year they have had a deficit. And what you'll notice that as time has gone on, the deficit has just kept getting worse. And today we're at a point where the deficit is 1.7 trillion. The problem if
you constantly rack up deficits is the debt pile for your country keeps on growing. The US national debt has surpassed 38 trillion now and the figure amounts to roughly $111,000 of debt for every person in the country. This girl at Berkshire's shareholder meeting a few years ago shows us the
problem with high debt. As you know, the US national debt is currently at an estimated $31 trillion, making up about 125% of the US GDP. In the meantime, over the past few years, the Federal Reserve has telegraphed that they intend to monetize the debt by printing trillions of dollars,
高債務的問題。如您所知，美國國債目前估計為 31 兆美元，約佔美國 GDP 的 125%。同時，在過去幾年裡，聯準會已預告他們打算透過印製數兆美元來貨幣化債務，
12:40
even as they insist that they're fighting inflation. My question is, are we likely to face a time in the future when the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency? I mean, we are the reserve currency. I see no option for any other currency to be the reserve currency. And nobody
knows how far you can go with the paper currency before it gets out of control. And particularly if you're the reserve world's reserve currency, nobody knows the answer to that. And you don't want to try and pick out the point where it does become a problem because then it's all over.
And I think we should be very careful. I mean, we all learned Keynesianism and we applied in World War II to the advantage of the country. And we did everything we could to prevent inflation during the war and then war ended in August of 45. And I think in January 46, and I'm not giving
you exact figures at all now, but in January 46, I think the rate of inflation was at something like 1% or thereabouts. And by the end of the year, I think it was at like 15% and again, I'm doing this from long memories. But it's easy for America to do it a lot. But if we do too much,
it's very hard to see how you recover once you let the genie out of the bottle and people lose faith in the currency. And they behave in an entirely different manner than they do when they feel that they put someone in the bank or have a pension plan or whatever it may be that they're
going to get out of something with roughly equal purchasing power. And it just changes the economy and all kinds of things can happen then. I can't predict them and nobody else can predict them, but I do know they aren't good. Again, the Warren Buffett way to prepare for if something like this does happen is pretty simple. By high quality companies at a fair price with good managers,
those three things are so simple. But if you do this, you don't need to really worry too much if the Fed will monetize the debt and bring about inflation because your company can just raise prices with inflation. Also, another thing you want to avoid companies with high debt because debt
adds risk and you don't need this added risk in today's market. If you can start looking small, hold a bit of cash, avoid overvalued stocks and stick to basic investing principles like these and you'll be ready for what is to come in 2026. Thank you Forecaster for sponsoring this video.
If you want access to their deep history of raw data and be able to use their software to graph it all out, then click the link in the description for 10% off.
