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What is Behavioral Finance?
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00:00
What is behavioral finance? It's the study of the crazy ways our very flawed human brains make financial choices.
什麼是行為財務學？這是一門研究我們充滿缺陷的大腦，如何以荒謬方式做出財務選擇的學問。
00:07
Hi, I'm Graham Newell, and I'm a speaker and behavioral finance researcher.
大家好，我是葛拉罕・紐威爾（Graham Newell），我是一名演說家，也是行為財務學研究員。
00:11
I take perverse pleasure in throwing people inside of brain scanners.
我有種變態的樂趣，喜歡把人丟進腦部掃描儀裡。
00:15
Then I map the parts of their brain that light up as they make tough financial choices.
然後當他們做出艱難的財務選擇時，我會繪製出他們大腦中亮起來的區域。
00:20
Here's what I've learned after many years of peaking inside of people's brains.
這是我多年來窺探人們大腦後所學到的東西。
00:25
Most of us believe we make pretty rational financial choices, but nothing could be farther from the truth.
我們大多數人相信自己做出了相當理性的財務選擇，但這與事實大相徑庭。
00:31
All of us, including me, routinely succumb to the hundreds of cognitive biases that badly distort our money choices.
我們所有人，包括我自己，都會習慣性地屈服於數百種認知偏誤，這些偏誤嚴重扭曲了我們的金錢選擇。
00:40
Why are we all so incredibly bad at money choices? Well, it's a software problem, a brain software problem.
為什麼我們在金錢選擇上都如此糟糕？嗯，這是一個軟體問題，一個大腦軟體的問題。
00:48
The human brain has gradually evolved over the past two million years and for 98% of that time.
人類大腦在過去兩百萬年間逐漸演化，而在這段時間的 98% 裡。
00:55
Our human brain has been shown along working hard to optimize for the problems faced by hunter-gatherers.
我們的人類大腦一直致力於優化，以解決狩獵採集者面臨的問題。
01:02
Things like not starve in avoid and freeze into death.
比如避免餓死或凍死。
01:06
And maybe if you're lucky finding a good-looking cave lady so you can pass along your DNA to the next generation.
還有，如果幸運的話，找到一位好看的穴居女性，以便將你的 DNA 傳承給下一代。
01:12
Fancy skills like agriculture and living in houses are a crazy new lifestyle for humans.
農業和住在房子裡這類高超的技能，對人類來說是一種全新的生活方式。
01:19
Civilizations been around for only about 10,000 years.
文明存在至今只有大約一萬年的時間。
01:22
So although we dress well now and we use all the latest gadgets our very ancient brains.
所以，儘管我們現在穿著得體，使用所有最新的科技產品，但我們的大腦依然非常古老。
01:28
Haven't had time to evolve. This means that when we inevitably run into modern problems are.
還沒有時間演化。這意味著當我們不可避免地遇到現代問題時。
01:34
Badly out-of-date brains still react just like a caveman.
我們那過時的大腦仍然會像穴居人一樣做出反應。
01:39
This is the reason so many of us get run down and slaughtered when we attempt to navigate modern problems like investing.
這就是為什麼我們許多人在試圖駕馭現代問題（如投資）時，會被收割或慘遭滑鐵盧的原因。
01:45
Somehow next quarters earnings projections just never seem to come up around the caveman campfire.
不知怎麼的，下一季的盈餘預測，似乎從來不會出現在穴居人的營火旁。
01:51
Behavioral finance scientists study the very specific ways our brains tend to stumble when making money decisions.
行為財務學家研究的是，我們的大腦在做金錢決策時，最容易出錯的特定方式。
01:58
Now what's really great about behavioral finance is that a lot of us do our research by playing fun games with people.
行為財務學真正棒的地方在於，我們很多人會透過玩有趣的遊戲來進行研究。
02:06
During my behavioral finance speeches and webinars we have a lot of fun because we play money games we swap and trade.
在我的行為財務學演講和線上研討會中，我們玩得很開心，因為我們會玩金錢遊戲，進行交換和交易。
02:13
I give away prizes.
我會頒發獎品。
02:14
I play a lot of pricing games using wine because you just can't tell if this is a five dollar bottle of wine or a hundred dollar bottle.
我常常用葡萄酒來玩很多定價遊戲，因為你根本看不出這瓶酒是五美元還是一百美元。
02:23
So do you think you're pretty good at managing money? Well, let's play a little game right now.
所以，你覺得自己很會理財嗎？好吧，我們現在就來玩個小遊戲。
02:28
Okay question for you a bat and ball cost a dollar and ten cents.
好，給你一個問題：一支球棒和一顆球總共要價一美元十美分。
02:33
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.
球棒比球貴一美元。
02:38
So how much does the ball cost? Did the answer ten cents immediately spring to mine?
那麼，這顆球要多少錢？你是不是立刻想到答案是十美分？
02:44
It certainly did for me the first time I played this game and that's the answer the vast majority of people give.
我第一次玩這個遊戲時確實是這樣想的，而這也是絕大多數人會給的答案。
02:50
This is an example of a cognitive bias called cognitive reflection.
這就是一種認知偏誤的例子，稱為「認知反思」。
02:54
This test measures our ability to override our incorrect gut response and to engage our wiser more rational brain.
這個測試在衡量我們能否克服直覺上的錯誤反應，並啟動我們更聰明、更理性的大腦。
03:03
By the way, the correct answer to the question is that the bat costs one dollar and five cents and the ball.
順帶一提，這個問題的正確答案是：球棒要價一美元五美分，而球。
03:10
costs five cents for a total of one dollar and ten cents.
要價五美分，總共一美元十美分。
03:15
Behavioral finance research shows that most of us are really pretty bad at taming our often misguided instinctual brain and.
行為財務學研究顯示，我們大多數人真的很不擅長馴服我們那常常誤導人的本能大腦，而且。
03:23
Behavioral finance research reveals the specific situations when we're most likely to slip up and make a bad choice.
行為財務學研究也揭示了我們最容易失誤、做出糟糕選擇的特定情境。
03:31
So what do these biases look like?
那麼，這些偏誤長什麼樣子呢？
03:33
Well, there are hundreds.
嗯，有上百種。
03:35
But the one that shows up most often in the world of money is the illusory correlation bias.
但在金錢世界中最常見的一種，就是「虛幻關聯偏誤」。
03:40
This is our brain's pesky tendency to believe that a random act is caused by another random act.
這是我們大腦一種煩人的傾向，會相信某個隨機事件是由另一個隨機事件引起的。
03:47
For example, I get out of bed every morning and the sun rises too.
舉例來說，我每天早上起床，太陽也隨之升起。
03:50
So I caused the sun to rise and in the past you've just happened to perfectly time and equity purchase and make a fortune.
所以我讓太陽升起，而過去你只不過是剛好完美地抓住了買進股票的時機，從而大賺一筆。
03:59
Therefore, you're a super savvy investor random chance assures that every now and then we'll all come up winners in the market and our brain.
因此，你是一位超級精明的投資者。隨機機率確保我們偶爾都會在市場中成為贏家。
04:07
Has a tendency to remember the profitable trades and forget the losers and this is how the average investor gets in trouble.
我們的大腦傾向於記住獲利的交易，而忘記虧損的交易，而這就是一般投資者陷入困境的原因。
04:14
Another behavioral finance bias is.
另一種行為財務學偏誤是：
04:17
Recency bias the tendency to overvalue information that we recently read there's false memory bias our habit to recall events that never.
近因偏誤（Recency bias），也就是高估最近讀到的資訊。還有錯誤記憶偏誤，我們習慣回憶起那些從未發生、但符合我們敘述的事件。
04:26
Happened because it fits our narrative. There's the availability heuristic the bias to overtrust facts.
還有可得性捷徑（Availability heuristic），也就是過度信任那些我們能輕易從記憶中提取的事實。
04:32
We can easily pull from memory. There's neglect of probability bias our brains tendency to be wildly wrong at.
還有機率忽略偏誤（Neglect of probability bias），我們的大腦在估計風險時傾向於出現巨大的錯誤。
04:40
Estimating risk and one of my favorites survivorship bias the inclination to overtrust the opinions of winners and discount the advice of those who lost.
以及我最喜歡的一種：倖存者偏誤（Survivorship bias），也就是過度信任勝利者的意見，而輕視那些失敗者的建議。
04:50
But if there's one unanimous conclusion amongst behavioral finance researchers.
但如果要在行為財務學研究者之間找出一個共識：
04:55
It's this it's not the markets that torpedo most people's financial future.
那就是：摧毀大多數人財務未來的，並不是市場。
05:00
The biggest obstacle to wealth is us and the reckless meddling our instinctual brain.
財富最大的障礙是我們自己，以及我們本能大腦的魯莽干涉。
05:07
Temps us to do just take a look at the hundred-year history of the Dow and you'll see it's pretty easy to make a boatload of money.
誘使我們去做的事。只要看看道瓊指數百年的歷史，你就會發現要賺大錢其實很容易。
05:13
Invest in a diversified portfolio then leave it alone.
投資於一個多元化的投資組合，然後就放著別動。
05:17
Stop looking at it stop messing with it.
停止盯著它看，停止干預它。
05:21
But we just can't help ourselves when markets skyrocket or take a nosedive our instinctual brain takes over.
但我們就是忍不住。當市場飆升或暴跌時，我們的本能大腦就會接管。
05:28
We're exuberant or we panic our fight or flight instinct takes over and we do stupid things.
我們會過度興奮或恐慌，我們的戰鬥或逃跑本能接管，然後做出愚蠢的事。
05:34
So I hope you'll start your behavioral finance education right now.
所以我希望你現在就開始你的行為財務學教育。
05:38
I've produced dozens and dozens of fun videos that will show you how to recognize the signs that an impulsive decision might be likely.
我製作了數十部有趣的影片，將教你如何辨識可能做出衝動決定的跡象。
05:47
Click on this box right here to see the full playlist.
點擊右邊這個方框以查看完整播放清單。
05:50
And I'm always working on new videos about how cognitive biases tempt us to make bad financial choices.
而我也一直在製作新影片，探討認知偏誤如何誘使我們做出糟糕的財務選擇。
05:57
If you'd like to be alerted as other videos are completed.
如果您希望在其他影片完成時收到通知。
06:00
Just click on my face below to subscribe and be sure to click that alert bell to I'm Graham Newell.
只需點擊下方我的頭像訂閱，並務必點擊那個通知鈴鐺，我是 Graham Newell。
06:06
And that's better decisions through brain science.
這就是透過腦科學做出更好的決策。

What is Behavioral Finance?

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📝 影片摘要

本單元「What is Behavioral Finance?」由行為財務學研究員葛拉罕・紐威爾主講，核心在於闡述行為財務學是研究人類大腦如何做出荒謬財務選擇的學問。影片指出，人類大腦演化速度緩慢，我們仍沿用數百萬年前「狩獵採集者」的思維模式來應對僅一萬年歷史的現代文明與金融市場，這就是所謂的「軟體問題」。透過「球棒與球」的認知反思測試，揭示了我們常依賴直覺而犯錯。影片列舉了多種常見的認知偏誤，如虛幻關聯、近因偏誤、倖存者偏誤等，並強調最大的投資障礙往往來自於我們自己衝動的大腦。結論指出，成功的投資策略在於建立多元化投資組合並長期持有，避免因市場波動而引發「戰鬥或逃跑」的本能反應。

📌 重點整理

  • ✓ 行為財務學定義：研究人類有缺陷的大腦如何做出非理性財務選擇的學科。
  • ✓ 大腦演化遲滯：現代大腦仍保留古老軟體（狩獵採集者思維），難以應對複雜的現代金融環境。
  • ✓ 認知反思測試：透過球棒與球的問題，測試我們能否克服直覺錯誤，啟動理性大腦。
  • ✓ 虛幻關聯偏誤：傾向於錯誤地認為隨機事件之間存在因果關係（如將起床與太陽升起聯想）。
  • ✓ 記憶偏差：大腦習慣記住獲利交易而遺忘虧損，導致過度自信。
  • ✓ 常見偏誤類型：包含近因偏誤、可得性捷徑、機率忽略及倖存者偏誤等。
  • ✓ 投資最大敵人：不是市場，而是我們自己本能大腦的魯莽干涉與恐慌。
  • ✓ 正確投資心法：建立多元化投資組合，長期持有，避免因市場波動而過度反應。
📖 專有名詞百科 ｜點擊詞彙查看維基百科解釋
行為的
behavioral
認知的
cognitive
偏誤
biases
演化
evolved
狩獵採集者
hunter-gatherers
本能的
instinctual
多元化的
diversified
投資組合
portfolio
過度興奮的
exuberant
啟發法
heuristic

🔍 自訂查詢

📚 共 10 個重點單字
behavioral /bɪˈheɪvjərəl/ adjective
relating to behavior
行為的
📝 例句
"What is behavioral finance?"
→ 什麼是行為財務學？
✨ 延伸例句
"Behavioral economics is a fascinating field."
→ 行為經濟學是一個迷人的領域。
cognitive /ˈkɒɡnətɪv/ adjective
of or relating to mental processes
認知的
📝 例句
"All of us routinely succumb to the hundreds of cognitive biases."
→ 我們所有人都會習慣性地屈服於數百種認知偏誤。
✨ 延伸例句
"Cognitive reflection is the ability to question your instincts."
→ 認知反思是質疑直覺的能力。
biases /ˈbaɪəsɪz/ noun
tendency to think in a particular way
偏誤；偏見
📝 例句
"All of us routinely succumb to the hundreds of cognitive biases."
→ 我們所有人都會習慣性地屈服於數百種認知偏誤。
✨ 延伸例句
"Confirmation bias is a common cognitive bias."
→ 確認偏誤是一種常見的認知偏誤。
evolved /ɪˈvɒlvd/ verb
developed gradually
演化；發展
📝 例句
"The human brain has gradually evolved over the past two million years."
→ 人類大腦在過去兩百萬年間逐漸演化。
✨ 延伸例句
"Our strategies must evolve with the market."
→ 我們的策略必須隨著市場演化。
hunter-gatherers /ˈhʌntər ˈɡæðərərz/ noun
people who live by hunting and gathering food
狩獵採集者
📝 例句
"Our human brain has been shown along working hard to optimize for the problems faced by hunter-gatherers."
→ 我們的人類大腦一直致力於優化，以解決狩獵採集者面臨的問題。
✨ 延伸例句
"Our brains are wired for a hunter-gatherer world."
→ 我們的大腦是為狩獵採集者的世界而生的。
instinctual /ɪnˈstɪŋktʃuəl/ adjective
based on instinct
本能的
📝 例句
"The biggest obstacle to wealth is us and the reckless meddling our instinctual brain."
→ 最大的財富障礙是我們自己，以及我們本能大腦的魯莽干涉。
✨ 延伸例句
"We rely on instinctual reactions during crises."
→ 危機時我們依賴本能反應。
diversified /daɪˈvɜːrsɪfaɪd/ adjective
showing a variety
多元化的
📝 例句
"Invest in a diversified portfolio then leave it alone."
→ 投資於一個多元化的投資組合，然後就放著別動。
✨ 延伸例句
"A diversified portfolio reduces risk."
→ 多元化的投資組合能降低風險。
portfolio /pɔːrtˈfoʊlioʊ/ noun
a collection of investments
投資組合
📝 例句
"Invest in a diversified portfolio then leave it alone."
→ 投資於一個多元化的投資組合，然後就放著別動。
✨ 延伸例句
"She manages a large investment portfolio."
→ 她管理著一個龐大的投資組合。
exuberant /ɪɡˈzuːbərənt/ adjective
full of energy and excitement
過度興奮的；熱情的
📝 例句
"We're exuberant or we panic our fight or flight instinct takes over."
→ 我們會過度興奮或恐慌，我們的戰鬥或逃跑本能接管。
✨ 延伸例句
"Investors became exuberant during the bull market."
→ 投資者在牛市期間變得過度興奮。
heuristic /hjʊˈrɪstɪk/ noun
a mental shortcut used to solve problems
啟發法；捷徑
📝 例句
"There's the availability heuristic the bias to overtrust facts."
→ 還有可得性捷徑，也就是過度信任那些我們能輕易從記憶中提取的事實。
✨ 延伸例句
"Using a heuristic can save time but lead to errors."
→ 使用捷徑可以節省時間，但也可能導致錯誤。
🎯 共 10 題測驗

1 What is the main focus of behavioral finance according to the video? 根據影片，行為財務學的主要關注點是什麼？ What is the main focus of behavioral finance according to the video?

根據影片，行為財務學的主要關注點是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video defines behavioral finance as the study of the crazy ways our very flawed human brains make financial choices.

影片定義行為財務學為研究我們充滿缺陷的大腦如何做出荒謬財務選擇的學問。

2 According to the speaker, why are we bad at managing money? 根據演講者，為什麼我們不擅長管理金錢？ According to the speaker, why are we bad at managing money?

根據演講者，為什麼我們不擅長管理金錢？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The speaker states it's a 'software problem' because brains evolved for hunter-gatherer life, not modern finance.

演講者指出這是「軟體問題」，因為大腦是為了狩獵採集生活演化，而非現代金融。

3 What is the correct answer to the 'bat and ball' problem? 「球棒與球」問題的正確答案是什麼？ What is the correct answer to the 'bat and ball' problem?

「球棒與球」問題的正確答案是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The correct answer is the bat costs $1.05 and the ball costs 5 cents.

正確答案是球棒價格為1.05美元，球價格為5美分。

4 What does the 'bat and ball' problem test? 「球棒與球」問題是在測試什麼？ What does the 'bat and ball' problem test?

「球棒與球」問題是在測試什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The test measures our ability to override incorrect gut responses and engage our wiser, more rational brain.

這個測試衡量我們能否克服直覺上的錯誤反應，並啟動我們更聰明、更理性的大腦。

5 What is 'Illusory Correlation Bias'? 什麼是「虛幻關聯偏誤」？ What is 'Illusory Correlation Bias'?

什麼是「虛幻關聯偏誤」？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 A

It is the brain's tendency to believe that a random act is caused by another random act.

這是大腦認為某個隨機事件是由另一個隨機事件引起的傾向。

6 Which bias involves recalling events that never happened to fit a narrative? 哪一種偏誤涉及回憶從未發生的事件以符合敘事？ Which bias involves recalling events that never happened to fit a narrative?

哪一種偏誤涉及回憶從未發生的事件以符合敘事？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

False memory bias is the habit to recall events that never happened because it fits our narrative.

錯誤記憶偏誤是習慣回憶那些從未發生、但符合我們敘述的事件。

7 What is 'Survivorship Bias'? 什麼是「倖存者偏誤」？ What is 'Survivorship Bias'?

什麼是「倖存者偏誤」？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

It is the inclination to overtrust the opinions of winners and discount the advice of those who lost.

這是過度信任勝利者的意見，而輕視那些失敗者建議的傾向。

8 According to the speaker, what is the biggest obstacle to wealth? 根據演講者，財富最大的障礙是什麼？ According to the speaker, what is the biggest obstacle to wealth?

根據演講者，財富最大的障礙是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The speaker states the biggest obstacle to wealth is us and the reckless meddling of our instinctual brain.

演講者指出財富最大的障礙是我們自己，以及我們本能大腦的魯莽干涉。

9 What is the recommended investment strategy to avoid behavioral mistakes? 避免行為錯誤的建議投資策略是什麼？ What is the recommended investment strategy to avoid behavioral mistakes?

避免行為錯誤的建議投資策略是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The strategy is to invest in a diversified portfolio and then stop looking at it or messing with it.

策略是投資於一個多元化的投資組合，然後停止盯著它看或干預它。

10 What instinct takes over when markets skyrocket or nosedive? 當市場飆升或暴跌時，什麼本能會接管？ What instinct takes over when markets skyrocket or nosedive?

當市場飆升或暴跌時，什麼本能會接管？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

When markets move violently, our fight or flight instinct takes over and we do stupid things.

當市場劇烈波動時，我們的戰鬥或逃跑本能接管，然後我們會做蠢事。

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