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we humans are prone to a series of thinking errors known as cognitive biases they tend to harm our
我們人類容易犯下一系列被稱為認知偏誤的思考錯誤，它們往往會損害我們的
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decision-making skills and cause us to have a skew perception of reality but by knowing and recognizing common cognitive
決策技能，並導致我們對現實產生扭曲的感知。然而，透過瞭解並識別常見的認知
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biases we can correct for them which helps us to make better decisions and even enhance our awareness of when we're
偏誤，我們可以加以修正，這有助於我們做出更好的決定，甚至提升我們對何時正遭受
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being psychologically manipulated so today I'm going to show you some common cognitive biases that you need to know
心理操縱的警覺。所以今天，我要向你們介紹一些必須知道的常見認知偏誤，
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in order to make smarter life decisions first up we have the anchoring bias this is buyers commonly leveraged
以便做出更明智的人生抉擇。首先登場的是「錨定效應」（Anchoring Bias）。這是銷售人員
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by sales people to convince you not only to spend more money than you probably should have for a product or service but
常用的手法，不僅要說服你為某項產品或服務花費比原本應該支出的更多金錢，還要把你
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to manipulate you into walking away feeling good about spending all that money so here's how it works you're walk
操縱成在花掉那一大筆錢後，仍能心滿意足地離開。它的運作方式如下：你走進
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into a used car dealership and you see a car on sale for $20,000 at first you think it's a pretty high price for that
一間中古車經銷商，看到一輛售價 2 萬美元的車子。起初你覺得這輛車的價格
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car so you ask to see a more affordable car on the lot the car salesman points you to an $188,000 car that seems to be
相當高，所以你要求看看停車場裡更便宜的車子。車商指給你看一輛 18,800 美元的車，這輛車
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roughly similar to the first 20 $1,000 car but a little more affordable if you had been showing the $88,000 car first
看起來跟第一輛 2 萬美元的車差不多，只是稍微便宜一點。如果你先看到的是 18,800 美元的車，
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you'd probably think that it too is well overpriced but having been showing the first car at the price of $20,000 you
你大概也會覺得它貴得離譜。但因為先看了第一輛 2 萬美元的車，你
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now think you're getting a $2,000 bargain on the second one what the car dealer has done here is created a high
現在會覺得買第二輛車省了 2,000 美元。車商在這裡做的，就是設下一個 2 萬美元的
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price anchor of $20,000 to make anything slightly cheaper than that sound like a good deal even if it isn't we see the
高價錨點，讓任何比這個價格稍低的東西聽起來都像是一筆好交易，即使事實並非如此。我們在
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anchoring bias all the time 30% discounts in stores or $20 off often isn't actually a discount at all this
錨定效應中隨處可見：商店裡的 3 折優惠或現折 20 美元，往往根本不是真正的折扣，
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was the price the item was always intended to be sold for but by setting the price higher than offering a fake
這件商品原本就打算以這個價格出售，但透過設定更高的價格再提供假折扣，
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discount you end up feeling like you're getting a deal even if you're not next up is the hindsight bias which
你最終會覺得自己撿到便宜，即使你並沒有。接下來是「事後諸葛偏誤」（Hindsight Bias），也就是
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is our tendency to overestimate our confidence in our ability to predict past events before it happened once an
我們傾向於高估自己在事件發生前預測過去事件的能力。一旦某個事件
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event has taken place it seems obvious and almost inevitable that that would have happened but before the event there
發生了，它看起來就顯而易見，甚至是必然會發生的。但在事件發生前，
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is a number of unknown possible outcomes that are not as predictable as they may seem in hindsight we see the hindsight
存在著許多未知的可能結果，並不像事後看來那樣容易預測。我們在「事後諸葛偏誤」中
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bias all the time in the phenomenon of the Monday Morning Quarterback this is where football fans dissect the events
隨處可見「週一早晨四分衛」（Monday Morning Quarterback）的現象。這是指橄欖球球迷在賽後剖析賽事，
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of the weekend game rolling their eyes at the seemingly dumb decisions of the coach and team despite the fact that
在週末的球賽中，他們對教練和球隊看似愚蠢的決定翻白眼，儘管事實是
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experts like the coaches and commentators weren't able to predict the sequence of events in advance but in
像教練和評論員這樣的專家也無法事先預測事件的發展順序，但是藉由
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knowing the hindsight bias we can keep our arrogance in check by remembering not to judge too harshly after the event
了解事後諸葛亮偏誤，我們可以透過提醒自己不要在事後過於嚴厲地評判來控制自身的傲慢
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the same lesson is resonant in the next cognitive bias the fundamental attribution
同樣的教訓也反映在下一個認知偏誤上：基本歸因
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error the fundamental attribution error refers to the tendency to explain another person's behavior in terms of
錯誤。基本歸因錯誤指的是傾向於用
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their personality rather than attributing their behavior to a situational context to simplify if
他人的個性來解釋其行為，而非將其行為歸因於情境脈絡。簡化來說，如果
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someone else makes a mistake it's generally seen as that person's fault rather than the fault of external forces
別人犯了錯，通常會被視為是那個人的錯，而非外在力量的錯。
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take for example a car crash after the event people often condescendingly judge the drivers for their poor driv driving
以車禍為例，事後人們常會居高臨下地評判駕駛人的糟糕駕駛
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skills but research shows that we tend to downplay the role of external factors that led to that car crash when it's not
技巧，但研究顯示，當我們不是
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us who are in the driver's seat a snle example is when someone's late to work we have a tendency to accuse them of
當事人時，我們傾向於淡化導致車禍的外在因素。一個簡單的例子是，當有人上班遲到時，我們傾向於指責他們
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laziness rather than considering external factors such as a late train or a traffic jam or something of the sort
懶惰，而不是考慮外在因素，例如火車晚點、塞車或類似的情況。
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interestingly the reverse is also the case known as the self-serving bias this is where we are often much quicker to
有趣的是，反過來也成立，這被稱為自利偏誤。這是我們常對自己的錯誤，
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blame external factors for our own mistakes once again cognitive bias research demonstrates that humans tend
更快地歸咎於外在因素的情況。認知偏誤研究再次證明，人類傾向於
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to overestimate themselves and their own abilities in comparison to others and we end up coming across as pretty
高估自己以及自身的能力，相對於他人，而我們最終會顯得相當
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arrogant next up is the mere exposure effect this is an interesting cognitive bias where we tend to develop a
傲慢。接下來是曝光效應。這是一個有趣的認知偏誤，我們傾向於僅僅因為
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preference for things merely because we are familiar with them it appears that humans tend to form a more positive
對事物感到熟悉而對其產生偏好。似乎人類傾向於對某樣事物形成更正面的
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attitude towards something if we are exposed to it regularly over time even if the initial reaction was neutral or
態度，如果我們在一段時間內經常接觸它，即使最初的反應是中立的或
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even negative this can occur with anything from music to art or even to another person for example you might be
甚至是負面的。這可能發生在任何事物上，從音樂、藝術，甚至是另一個人。例如，你可能
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in contact with someone at work every day who you initially didn't like or thought you had nothing in common with
每天在工作中與某人接觸，你最初不喜歡他，或認為你們沒有任何共同點，
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but as you got to know them more even though you still got not much in common you develop a liking for them just from
但隨著你對他更瞭解，即使你們仍然沒有太多共同點，你僅僅因為接觸而對他們產生了好感。
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being associated with them from being in touch with them every single day the mirr exposure effect is regularly used
透過每天與他們保持聯繫而與他們產生關聯，鏡像曝光效應經常被使用
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in advertising and marketing in fact it's the justification for large Brands to spend billions on Advertising every
在廣告和行銷中，事實上，這就是大品牌每年花費數十億美元
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single year essentially Brands repeatedly expose customers to their products via advertisements which can
投放廣告的理由，本質上，品牌透過廣告反覆向消費者展示其產品，這
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lead to increased familiarity with the products and consequently a high likelihood that consumers will reach out
可能會導致對產品的熟悉度增加，進而提高消費者接觸
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and select the product they see on TV all the time if it's next to a product that isn't advertised nearly as
並選擇他們在電視上一直看到的產品的機率，如果該產品就在一個幾乎沒有
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much survivorship bias refers to our tendency to focus on stories of success and ignore stories of failure for
廣告的產品旁邊的話。存活者偏差指的是我們傾向於關注成功的故事而忽略失敗的故事，例如
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example when studying How To Succeed in Business we're more inclined to study successful companies than failed
在研究如何在商業上取得成功時，我們更傾向於研究成功的公司而非失敗的
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companies however if we only consider those companies that have thrived and disregard those that failed and ceased
公司，然而，如果我們只考慮那些蓬勃發展的公司而忽略那些失敗並停止
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to exist we might conclude that the key to business success is simply to follow the strategies of successful companies
運營的公司，我們可能會得出結論，商業成功的關鍵就是簡單地遵循成功公司的策略
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but if we looked at the companies that failed we might observe that many of them employed the exact same strategies
但如果我們看看那些失敗的公司，我們可能會觀察到其中許多公司採用了完全相同的策略
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as a successful companies but they didn't survive so we need to always look at both successes and failures when
但他們沒有存活下來，所以當我們做判斷時，需要同時審視成功與失敗。存活者偏差的另一個經典例子
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making judgments another classic example of survivorship bias comes from World War II during the war military analysts
來自第二次世界大戰，在戰爭期間，軍事分析師
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initially suggested adding armor to the parts of returning planes showed the most damage however a statian named
最初建議在返航飛機上損傷最嚴重的部位加裝裝甲，然而，一位名叫
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Abraham wal noticed that the choice to reinforce the areas where the surviving planes were hit represented a
亞伯拉罕·沃爾（Abraham Wald）的統計學家注意到，選擇在倖存飛機被擊中的區域進行強化，代表了一種
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survivorship bias he pointed out that the military should instead reinforce the areas where the surviving planes
存活者偏差，他指出，軍方應該強化那些倖存飛機
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were undamaged as the planes that were hit in those areas were not returning the confirmation bias refers
沒有受損的區域，因為那些在這些區域被擊中的飛機並沒有返航。確認偏差指的是
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to our tendency to search for and favor information that will support our pre-existing beliefs our brain sent to
我們傾向於搜尋並偏愛那些能支持我們既有信念的資訊，我們的大腦傾向於
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seek out information that supports our pre-existing beliefs or desired outcomes in order to sustain cognitive
尋找支持我們既有信念或期望結果的資訊，以維持認知
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equilibrium a state of mind where everything makes perfect sense but in the process our brains often minimize
平衡，這是一種萬事萬物都完全合理的心理狀態，但在這個過程中，我們的大腦常常會最小化、
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exclude or misinterpret information that doesn't support our pre-existing beliefs confirmation bias has become a
排除或誤解那些不支持我們既有信念的資訊。確認偏差已經成為一個
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particularly big issue in the internet age where doing your own research often deteriorates into exclusively engaging
在網路時代尤其嚴重，所謂「做自己的研究」往往淪為只看網路上支持特定觀點的資訊
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with information online that supports that point of view but it's even worse than this because even faced with the
但情況甚至更糟，因為即使面對和他人完全相同的資訊，我們也可能選擇以最符合自身敘事的方式解讀
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exact same information as someone else we might choose to interpret it in a way that best suits our own narrative no
不論你對政治、宗教等議題有何信念，人類都有傾向尋找我們想看到的資訊
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matter your beliefs on politics religion and so on we humans have a tendency to ve toward the information we want to
以我們想解讀的方式去詮釋，並淡化那些與自身世界觀相衝突的資訊
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find interpret it the way we want to interpret it and minimize information that is uncomfortable to our own World
最後，我們來看看一個我自己也犯過的認知偏誤，自從了解它後，我與人互動的方式也隨之改變
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Views lastly let's look at one cognitive bias that I am guilty of and since learning about it has changed how I
它稱為「虛假共識效應」，曾讓我個人陷入許多社交尷尬的處境
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interact with people it's called the false Consensus Effect and it's led me personally into many socially awkward
它的運作方式如下：以初次見面為例
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situations so here's how it works take the example of meeting someone for the first time upon the first meeting we
我們往往在對對方毫無深入了解的情況下，就做出各種假設
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often make a range of assumptions about them without truly knowing who they are in any depth research shows that you're
研究顯示，你很可能預設對方和你有相同的世界觀
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likely to have as your default assumption about someone that they share the same world view as you in essence we
本質上，我們本能地認為自己的信念是常識，因此我們接觸到的人，其觀點也理當如此
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inherently think that our beliefs are common sense and therefore our views are the default views of the people we come
若你成為「曝光效應」的受害者，可能會遇到許多尷尬情境
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in contact with if you fall victim of the M exposure effect you may come across many awkward situations for
舉例來說，當你在別人家作客時，可能無意中踩到一個你認為無爭議、但對主人世界觀而言卻很敏感的話題而讓對方難堪
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example you might inadvertently embarrass a host when you're in their house when you stumble into a topic that
同樣地，當你在家中招待客人時，若提起你以為對方會認同的資訊，卻突然引發衝突，也可能冒犯到對方
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you consider to be uncontroversial but to their worldview is uncomfortable similarly you might offend a guest in
從虛假共識效應得到的教訓是：不要假設他人相信什麼
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your house if you bring up information that you assume that they agree with you on and suddenly it causes some conflict
因為人類天性很容易把與互動對象之間的共識視為理所當然，但實際情況往往並非如此
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the lesson from The False Consensus Effect is this do not make assumptions about what others or believe given that
我在這支影片中分享了多種認知偏誤，包括一些關於行銷人員如何操縱我們花錢的伎倆
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it appears to be human nature to take consensus among people we interact with for granted far more than it truly is
人類天性往往過度高估與互動對象之間的共識，並視為理所當然。
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I've shared a range of cognitive biases in this video including a few about how marketers manipulate us into spending
我在這支影片中分享了多種認知偏誤，包括一些行銷人員如何操縱我們消費的手法
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money but I have a whole video on all the marketing tricks that marketers don't want you to know here that you
錢的部分，但我這裡有一支完整的影片，專門講行銷人員不想讓你知道的所有行銷伎倆，你
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should watch next
你接下來應該看看那支影片
