00:00
when it comes to trading psychology and the developing of winning attitudes there is no better teacher than the
當談到交易心理與培養致勝態度時，沒有比市場本身更好的老師了。
00:06
market itself after all the lessons provided by the market in the past will help set the right expectation for the
畢竟，市場過去提供的教訓，將有助於為未來設定正確的預期。
00:12
future we only need to look back over the last decade to see some of the market Falls
我們只需回顧過去十年，就能看到一些市場的下跌。
00:17
such events can and should be expected in the future a few of our videos in the past dig
這類事件未來可能也應該預期會發生；我們過去的一些影片曾深入探討交易者心理，但在這支影片中，我們將更著重於紀律的部分。
00:23
deeper into Trader psychology and in this video however we look more at the discipline portion
幾本暢銷書都討論了交易紀律的關鍵概念，我們也學習如何將其應用於自身的交易與投資事業中。
00:31
several popular books discuss key Concepts in trading discipline and we learn how to apply them to our own
作者范撒普（Van Tharp）在其教學中留下了一句名言：頂尖交易者會對市場中發生的任何事情負起全責，因此能從錯誤中學習。
00:37
trading and investing endeavors author van Tharp made a great quote through his teachings when he said a
這些人通常都有運作中的交易商業計畫，因為他們將交易視為一門生意。
00:44
Peak Performance Trader feels totally responsible for whatever happens in the market and can therefore learn from
一旦我們完全接受，要成為有紀律的交易者，就必須將交易視為一門生意，那麼通往成功的旅程與最終路徑將會變得容易許多。
00:50
mistakes these people typically have a working business plan for trading because they
情緒控制可以說是失敗交易者與採取更有紀律路線的交易者之間的主要區別之一。
00:55
treat trading as a business once we fully accept that the journey to become a disciplined Trader requires
那麼，我們該如何成為一個較少情緒化、更有紀律的交易者呢？
01:02
treating trading as a business the journey and eventual path to success will become much easier
馬克・道格拉斯（Mark Douglas）是暢銷書《交易心理分析》（Trading in the Zone）與《有紀律的交易者》（The Disciplined Trader）的作者，他將許多交易挑戰與交易者對市場的感知連結起來。
01:10
emotional control is arguably one of the main differentiators between an unsuccessful Trader and one that takes a
第一課是要知道市場永遠是對的，只有你可能是錯的，市場絕不會錯。
01:17
more disciplined route so how do we become a less emotional more disciplined Trader
第二，市場不在乎你，不在乎你贏了多少或輸了多少，它有自己的節奏。
01:24
Mark Douglas author of the popular book trading in the zone and the disciplines Trader links the many trading challenges
只有透過經驗、嘗試與錯誤，你才會開始接受市場沒有情緒，只有你有；記住，市場是一個非理性且無法控制的實體。
01:31
to that of a Trader's perception of the market the first lesson is to know that the
一旦我們對市場有了正確的感知，我們就能向內审视自己的心理。
01:36
market is always right only you can be wrong never the market second the market does not care about
有三個面向需要考量：識別機會、執行交易。
01:43
you it does not care how much money you've won or lost it has its own rhythm it is only through experience trial and
它不在乎你，不在乎你賺了多少錢或虧了多少錢，它有自己的節奏。
01:50
error that you begin to accept that the market has no emotion only you do remember the market is an irrational
錯誤，你才會開始接受市場沒有情緒，只有你才有。記住，市場是一個非理性的
01:59
uncontrollable entity once we have the right perception of the market we can then look inwardly at our
無法控制的實體。一旦我們對市場有了正確的認知，我們就能審視自己的
02:05
own psychology there are three aspects to consider identifying opportunity executing trades
心理層面。有三個面向需要考量：識別機會、執行交易
02:13
and growing equity each are however hindered by emotional pitfalls and Traders will find it hard
然而，成長的股本卻常常受到情緒陷阱的阻礙，交易者若難以控制這些情緒
02:21
to succeed unless these emotions are managed ensuring they do not interfere with the trading plan
將很難成功，除非能管理好這些情緒，確保它們不會干擾交易計畫
02:28
one of the ways we can address these emotions is to create rules and these rules help us identify opportunities
我們處理這些情緒的方法之一是制定規則，這些規則能幫助我們識別機會
02:35
execute our trades and manage position size and risk such rules take away subjectivity and
執行交易並管理部位規模與風險，此類規則能消除主觀性
02:43
help our emotions from getting drawn into irrational Market Behavior having these rules is however not the
防止情緒被非理性的市場行為所左右。然而，僅有規則並非
02:50
complete solution if we hit a series of losses following our rules we start to doubt them
完整的解決方案，若我們遵循規則卻遭遇連續虧損，便會開始懷疑規則
02:56
such losses can create irrational blind spots in our cognitive reasoning the more we're hit by losses the less
此類虧損會在認知推理中造成非理性的盲點，遭受的虧損越多
03:03
likely we are to follow the rules and this comes despite knowing the market is itself irrational
我們就越不可能遵循規則，即便我們明知市場本身就是非理性的
03:10
this cycle repeats endlessly until we accept that losses will occur we must manage them accordingly with solid risk
這種循環會不斷重複，直到我們接受虧損必然會發生，我們必須透過穩固的風險管理
03:17
management and allow the market to do its thing it's important to note however that
來加以應對，並讓市場自行運作。然而，必須注意的是
03:22
rules should not be followed blindly they must be considered from past performance and Analysis that supports
規則不應盲目遵循，必須基於過往表現以及支持策略
03:28
the viability of the strategy it goes without saying that following rules to a flawed or unproven strategy
可行性的分析來加以考量。不言而喻，盲目遵循一套有缺陷或未經驗證的策略
03:34
could lead to financial ruin another important aspect discussed in the book is expectation and goal
可能導致財務毀滅。書中探討的另一個重要面向是預期與目標
03:43
achievement many new Traders start with an expectation maybe targeting 500 per day
許多新手交易者帶著某種預期開始，也許目標是每天賺 500 元
03:50
or achieving 100 annual returns giving too much focus on such targets inhibits the trader from developing a
或是實現 100% 的年報酬率。過度關注此類目標會阻礙交易者發展出
03:58
robust process after all the returns are simply a byproduct of the process new Traders tend to have this in Reverse
穩健的流程，畢竟報酬僅是流程的副產品。新手交易者往往本末倒置
04:07
focusing on returns first and thinking about the process last an approach I'm strongly against
先關注報酬，最後才考慮流程，我對此作法深表反對
04:15
focus and energy must always be given to the strategy and the process first a link at the end of the video expanding
專注力與精力必須始終優先給予策略與流程。影片末後的連結
04:24
on trading expectations may be of use after completing the study preparation
深入探討交易預期，在完成研習準備後可能有所助益
04:31
and creating the rules and process we need the discipline to ensure we always stay within that framework
在建立好規則與流程後，我們需要紀律來確保始終維持在該框架內
04:38
is mechanical and as emotionless as you can without focusing on the financial reward
請保持機械化操作，盡可能不受情緒干擾，不要只盯著財務報酬
04:46
psychology is the foundation of all successful disciplines Traders but there are several flawed psychological biases
心理學是所有成功交易學科的基礎，但失敗的交易者常有幾種有缺陷的心理偏誤
04:53
of failing Traders which we should understand none more so than the gambler's fallacy
我們應當了解，其中最嚴重的就是賭徒謬誤
04:59
or sometimes referred to as the Monte Carlo fallacy although the myth is linked to gambling
有時也稱為蒙地卡羅謬誤，雖然這個迷思與賭博有關
05:05
the same belief is also associated with Trading first let's take the game of roulette
但同樣的信念也與交易相關。首先讓我們以輪盤遊戲為例
05:13
imagine a table which has seen the color of red four times in a row would you be more inclined to bet black
設想一張賭桌，已經連續出現四次紅色，您是否會更傾向於在下一次旋轉押黑色
05:19
on the next spin what of the table had eight spins all seeing red
如果賭桌連續八次都出現紅色呢
05:25
would you expect black to have more of a chance on the next spin well in both scenarios there is
您是否會預期下一次旋轉出現黑色的機率更高？然而在這兩種情境中
05:32
absolutely no reasoning as to why the next spin would be black or red for that matter
完全沒有理由說明下一次旋轉會是黑色或紅色
05:37
remember the wheel has no memory the probability of either color appearing has not changed
請記住，輪盤沒有記憶，出現任一顏色的機率並未改變
05:43
this is why it's called a fallacy it is a mistaken belief based on unsound arguments
這就是為什麼它被稱為謬誤，這是一種基於不合理論點的錯誤信念
05:51
to date the longest recorded streak of one color appearing in roulette happened in 1943.
迄今為止，輪盤最長的單一顏色連續出現記錄發生在1943年
05:57
the color red appeared 32 consecutive times and with each spin the participants were sure the next color
紅色連續出現32次，每次旋轉時，參與者都確信下一個顏色
06:04
would be black but why is this important in trading well it's because although you may have
會是黑色。但為什麼這在交易中很重要？因為儘管您可能
06:13
a trading strategy with a positive expectancy just like a casino a losing streak can occur at any time without
擁有正期望值的交易策略，但就像賭場一樣，任何時候都可能毫無理由地出現連敗
06:19
reason it does not mean the strategy is flawed just like the roll of a dice or a toss
這並不意味策略有缺陷，就像擲骰子或拋硬幣一樣
06:25
of a coin a trading candle has no memory Mark Douglas summarized these flawed
交易的K線沒有記憶。馬克·道格拉斯總結了這些有缺陷的
06:34
psychological biases by saying when you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each Edge as the
心理偏誤，他說：當您完全接納每個優勢的不確定性以及
06:41
uniqueness of each moment your frustration with trading will end understanding that losses are an
每個時刻的獨特性時，您對交易的挫折感將會終結。了解虧損是
06:48
integral part of trading will provide some comfort when your results are not going your way
交易不可或缺的一部分，當結果不如預期時，將能提供一些慰藉
06:54
legendary Trader Mark miniveini himself says that he builds failure into his system meaning that he expects his
傳奇交易員 Mark Minervini 本人表示，他將虧損納入系統中，意味著他預期自己的
07:01
trades to lose 50 percent of the time and his other trades to win 50 of the time I'll bite his winning trades will
交易有 50% 的機率會虧損，而另外 50% 的交易則會獲利。我敢說，當他獲利時，他的
07:08
be larger than his losses when they occur if you step back and really accept that
獲利交易會比虧損交易的幅度更大。如果你退一步並真正接受
07:14
losses are at the core of most successful strategies the acceptance of their occurrence is far easier to digest
虧損是大多數成功策略的核心，那麼接受虧損的發生就會容易理解得多。
07:22
it is the managing of these losses that really makes the difference if you allow a loss to grow out of
真正造成差異的是對這些虧損的管理。如果你讓虧損失控，
07:27
control it could make your winning trades less significant except that you will have money losses keep them small
它可能會讓你的獲利交易變得微不足道，最終只會剩下資金虧損。讓虧損保持在小額，
07:34
and make them a core focus of your strategy ultimately embrace the prospect that
並讓它成為你策略的核心重點。最終，要擁抱這樣的可能性：
07:43
losses and wins are an inevitability within any strategy and any outcome is just as likely as the other
在任何策略中，虧損和獲利都是不可避免的，任何結果出現的機率都是均等的。
07:50
Mark says if you can't learn to accept small losses sooner or later you will take big losses
Mark 說過，如果你不學會接受小額虧損，遲早你會面臨大額虧損。
07:58
a key factor to becoming a disciplined Trader is the merging of expectation with probability which ultimately
成為一名紀律嚴明的交易員，關鍵因素在於將預期與機率結合，這最終
08:05
provides the foundation for unemotional Trading the ability to accept trading
為非情緒化交易奠定了基礎。能夠接受短期交易的
08:11
unpredictability in the short term but equally have faith in the law of large numbers in the longer term is what
不可預測性，但同樣對長期的大數法則抱持信心，這正是
08:17
separates the professional from the amateur you may know the concept of a bell curve
專業人士與業餘者的區別。你可能知道鐘形曲線的概念。
08:24
the concept plots a distribution of data points and is used as a measure of probability and deviation
這個概念繪製了數據點的分佈，並用作衡量機率和偏差的指標。
08:32
in this example we keep the concept simple in the middle we have trades with an average return to the left trades
在這個例子中，我們讓概念保持簡單：中間是具有平均報酬的交易，左邊是
08:39
with poor performance and to the right good performance the neutral return is plotted centrally
表現不佳的交易，右邊則是表現良好的交易。中性報酬被繪製在
08:45
on the chart and each trade which remember is a random event is plotted based on their return
圖表的中央，而每一筆交易（請記住，這是一個隨機事件）則根據其報酬率被繪製出來。
08:53
a Trader makes perhaps 10 trades providing random results at first glance in the short term the
一位交易員可能進行了 10 筆交易，最初提供了隨機的結果。在短期內，
09:01
review would suggest a losing strategy or a strategy without positive expectancy
回顧時可能會顯示這是一個虧損的策略，或是一個沒有正期望值的策略。
09:06
but remember a statistical Edge should only be measured when we have enough meaningful data not on a micro level
但請記住，統計上的優勢應該只在我們擁有足夠有意義的數據時進行衡量，而不是在微觀層級上。
09:13
with such a small sample size the predictability is determined by the law of large numbers
在如此小的樣本數下，可預測性是由大數法則決定的
09:22
once we have a large data sample we can then determine if a statistical Edge is present
一旦我們有了大量的數據樣本，我們就能確定是否存在統計優勢
09:27
we already knew from the position of the bell curve that the large majority of Trades were positive in comparison to
我們從鐘形曲線的位置已經知道，大多數交易相較於虧損交易都是獲利的
09:33
the losing trades and this provides some predictability on a macro level the level at which a casino bases its model
這在宏觀層面提供了一些可預測性，也就是賭場建立其模型的層級
09:42
casinos are aware of the needs to pay out infrequent large winnings to the minority but the positive expectancy
賭場知道需要向少數人支付不常見的大額獎金，但遊戲中內建的正期望值
09:48
built into the game will far outweigh those costs a previous video on probability and
將遠遠超過這些成本，先前關於機率和
09:54
expectancy helps explain the theory in Greater detail leaning on my own trading experience of
期望值的影片更詳細地解釋了這個理論，憑藉我超過 30 年的
10:03
more than 30 years I know with certainty that my personal approach will see periods of lackluster performance
交易經驗，我確信我的個人方法會經歷表現平平的時期
10:09
followed by periods of outperformance but by position sizing and managing risk accordingly the losses and psychological
隨後是表現優異的時期，但透過適當的部位配置和風險管理，損失和心理
10:17
biases are well anchored in recent times we have seen a dreadfully volatile period and most long
偏見都能被妥善錨定，最近我們經歷了一段極度動盪的時期，大多數多頭
10:24
strategies would have suffered myself and many others on the other hand remain unnerved focused on the process and well
策略都受到了影響，而我和其他許多人則保持鎮定，專注於流程，並為
10:32
prepared for the longer term Market expectation once we understand the probability at a
長期的市場預期做好充分準備，一旦我們理解了宏觀層面的機率
10:38
macro level we can set the expectation and once we have set an expectation we can ignore the random results over the
我們就能設定預期，而一旦我們設定了預期，我們就能忽略短期的隨機結果，並
10:46
shorter term and stay disciplined to the strategy my Approach has that long-term macro
嚴守紀律執行策略，我的方法具備那種長期的宏觀
10:52
expectation and I tend to measure it through the r distribution which is simply the risk taken and the reward
預期，我傾向於透過 R 分佈來衡量它，這簡單來說就是承擔的風險和
10:59
achieved for example I know that many of my trades will lose up to one R whereas my
獲得的回報，例如，我知道我的許多交易會虧損最多一 R，而我的
11:06
winning trades are spread from winning 1R through to winning 10 r or 10 times my risk
獲利交易則分佈在獲利 1R 到獲利 10 R 或我風險的 10 倍之間
11:13
having this predefined probability and expectation over a large sample of data makes it easy for me to stay calm when I
在大量的數據樣本中擁有這種預先定義的機率和期望值，讓我在遇到
11:20
get a series of losses another great quote from the late Mark Douglas said when you really believe
連續虧損時更容易保持冷靜，已故的 Mark Douglas 有句名言：當你真正相信
11:27
that trading is simply a probability game Concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same
交易只是一個機率遊戲時，對錯或輸贏等概念就不再具有同樣的意義
11:34
significance in summary the journey to becoming a successful disciplines Trader requires
總結來說，要成為一名成功的自律交易者，關鍵在於
11:43
us to accept that the market does not care about us we must accept that losses will always
接受市場根本不在乎我們的事實。我們必須承認虧損總是
11:48
come our way and we should build the management of losses into the core of our strategy
會發生，並應將虧損管理納入策略的核心。
11:54
stop focusing on the rewards and stay focused on the process understand that Anything Can Happen a
別再專注於回報，而要專注於流程。要理解任何事都可能發生，
12:02
singular trade is unique and has no memory know the longer term statistics of your
每一筆交易都是獨一無二且沒有記憶的。請了解策略的長期統計數據，
12:08
strategy and ensure your expectations are aligned as always thanks for watching and if you
並確保你的預期與此相符。一如既往，感謝收看。如果你
12:15
need help staying disciplined why not join our group of like-minded individuals where we share thoughts
需要幫助保持自律，何不加入我們志同道合的社群？我們在這裡分享想法、
12:20
insights scanning software and a set of rules to keep you on the right track
洞見、掃描軟體，以及一套讓你保持正軌的規則。
