The janitor that had $8 million in savings when he died in 2014.
這位清潔工在2014年去世時擁有800萬美元的儲蓄。
00:08
Yeah, you heard that right.
沒錯，你聽得沒錯。
00:10
Janitor $8 million.
清潔工，800萬美元。
00:13
And he didn't win the lottery or inherit the money either.
而且他既沒有中彩票，也沒有繼承遺產。
00:17
He just saved consistently throughout his life, while letting the wonders of compounding do its thing.
他只是一生中持續儲蓄，讓複利的奇蹟發揮作用。
00:26
The moral is that your behavior with money is oftentimes more important than how intelligent you are.
這個故事的寓意是，你對待金錢的行為往往比你的智商更重要。
00:33
Even if you don't have a diploma from Harvard or work on Wall Street, you can become rich by just behaving in a sound way.
即使你沒有哈佛的文憑，或者不在華爾街工作，只要行為得當，你也能變得富有。
00:41
As Morgan Howsell puts it, financial success is not a hard science.
正如摩根·豪塞爾所說，財務成功不是一門精密的科學。
00:46
It's a soft skill where how you behave is more important than what you know.
這是一種軟技能，你的行為比你知道的東西更重要。
00:52
Spend your next 10 to 15 minutes on this video and you might excel on the soft skill of investing.
花你接下來的10到15分鐘看這個影片，你可能會在投資的軟技能上出類拔萃。
00:59
This is a top 5 takeaway summary of the psychology of money by Morgan Howsell.
這是摩根·豪塞爾《金錢心理學》的前五大收穫總結。
01:05
And this is the Swedish investor bringing you the best tips and tools for reaching financial freedom through stock market investing.
而這位瑞典投資者將為你帶來通過股票市場投資實現財務自由的最佳技巧和工具。
01:14
Takeaway number one, pay the price.
第一個收穫：付出代價。
01:18
Let's say that you want a new, nice watch.
假設你想要一塊新的、漂亮的手錶。
01:21
You go to the store to check out the offerings.
你去商店看看有什麼選擇。
01:24
You are really after something that will impress your friends and the lovely lady that you're dating.
你真的想要一塊能讓你的朋友和你約會的可愛女士印象深刻的手錶。
01:29
You now have a choice.
現在你有兩個選擇。
01:31
Either you pay for the watch or you steal it and run.
要麼你付錢買這塊手錶，要麼你偷了它然後跑掉。
01:35
Because you have done your cardio, right?
因為你有做有氧運動，對吧？
01:37
My guess is that you would choose option number one, no matter your physical capacity.
我猜你會選擇第一個選項，無論你的體能如何。
01:41
You would take out your cord and swipe that thing.
你會拿出你的卡並刷卡。
01:45
Do the right thing.
做正確的事。
01:47
The point is that you know that having a new watch comes with a price, a fee.
重點是你知道擁有一個新手錶需要付出代價，即費用。
01:52
And it's the same with investing.
投資也是一樣。
01:54
It comes with a price too.
它也需要付出代價。
01:57
Throughout the videos on this channel, there are some reoccurring takeaways for high returns, one of them being a somewhat concentrated portfolio, with Peter Lynch perhaps being the exception.
The concentrated portfolio brings with it a characteristic to your performance.
集中的投資組合會給你的表現帶來一個特徵。
02:13
It will be volatile.
它會波動。
02:15
This is the price, the fee, for having high returns in the stock market over the long term.
這就是在股市中長期獲得高回報的代價，即費用。
02:21
If you don't have the stomach to stay the course when your net worth decreases by, say, 20% during a single week, as two of your major holdings report quarterly earnings below what analysts expected, don't aim to maximize your returns.
Because the higher the returns, the higher this fee typically is.
因為回報越高，這個費用通常越高。
02:41
Let's say you already 10 years ago could visualize Netflix's bright future.
假設你在十年前就能預見Netflix的光明前景。
02:46
You invested a large portion of your net worth in the stock.
你將你的大部分淨資產投資於這支股票。
02:50
Well, they would be quite a rich person today.
好的，今天你會是一個非常富有的人。
02:53
However, could you afford paying the price for this journey?
然而，你能否承受這段旅程的代價？
02:57
Netflix has, during this period, had many major downturns.
Netflix在這段期間內經歷了多次重大下跌。
03:02
Would you have sat still in that boat during 2011, for example, when Netflix lost tons of customers and the stock price fell 80% from its peak during the ensuing months.
Could you stomach facing them, knowing that you might have endangered their future?
你能忍受面對他們，知道自己可能危及了他們的未來嗎？
03:24
Would you still think that being almost all in Netflix is a good idea?
你還會認為幾乎全壓在Netflix是個好主意嗎？
03:28
This is, of course, an extreme example.
這當然是個極端的例子。
03:31
But even if you have something less extreme than an all-in-netflix approach to investing, you'll have to pay the price of volatility nonetheless.
但即使你的投資策略不像全壓Netflix那麼極端，你仍然必須承受波動的代價。
03:40
Let's say that you bought an S&P 500 index fund in 1980.
假設你在1980年買了標普500指數基金。
03:45
You'd still have to face about 13 years combined, when your investment portfolio was down 20% from its high, and about 8 months when it was down 50%.
你仍然得面對大約13年的時間，你的投資組合從高點下跌20%，以及大約8個月的時間下跌50%。
03:55
That's tough.
這很難熬。
03:58
Stock market investing is a great thing that enables wealth creation like few other options.
股市投資是一件很棒的事，能夠創造財富，幾乎沒有其他選擇能比得上。
04:04
But don't try to fool yourself, it doesn't come for free.
但不要自欺欺人，這不是免費的。
04:09
All investors will experience volatility, and you have to look at this as the price you pay for a brighter future.
所有投資者都會經歷波動，你必須將這視為你為更光明的未來所付出的代價。
04:17
Takeaway number two, never enough.
第二個要點，永遠不夠。
04:22
It's a very interesting phenomenon that you can hand somebody $2 million bonus in their fine until they find out that the person next to them got $2 million won and then they're sick for the next year.
Capitalism is great at doing two things, generating wealth and generating envy.
資本主義擅長做兩件事：創造財富和製造嫉妒。
04:43
The urge to surpass your neighbors, peers and friends, can help energize your hard work and strive to really make it.
超越鄰居、同儕和朋友的慾望，可以激勵你努力工作，奮鬥向上。
04:51
And of course, being motivated into becoming more productive and doing meaningful work is a good thing, but social comparison can also cause us to feel like we're never enough.
當然，被激勵去變得更有生產力和做有意義的工作是好事，但社會比較也可能讓我們覺得自己永遠不夠好。
05:03
Let's look at some statistics.
讓我們看一些統計數據。
05:05
To belong to the top 1% highest income earners in the US, you'd have to earn somewhere around $500,000 a year.
要成為美國前1%高收入者，你需要一年賺大約50萬美元。
05:14
That's what a highly specialized doctor, let's call him Bill, earns.
這是一位高度專業的醫生，我們稱他為比爾，他的收入。
05:18
And by almost any standard, Bill would be considered rich.
幾乎任何標準來看，比爾都會被認為是富有的。
05:23
He can afford to drive nice cars, go on long vacations to exotic countries, perhaps hire someone to do work which he thinks is tedious, etc.
他可以開好車，去異國他鄉度長假，也許雇人做他覺得乏味的工作等等。
05:32
Bill has been feeling good about himself and what has achieved financially in his life.
比爾一直對自己和他在人生中所取得的財務成就感到滿意。
05:37
Well, that was only until he bought a vacation home in the Hamptons and realized that he had Stan as his neighbor.
但是，這種滿足感只維持到他買下漢普頓的度假屋，並發現史丹是他的鄰居為止。
05:45
Stan belongs to the top 1% over the 1%.
史丹屬於那1%中的頂尖1%。
05:50
He is a CEO of quite a large public company and earns a staggering $10 million per year.
他是一家大型上市公司的執行長，每年賺取高達1,000萬美元的驚人收入。
05:58
Now, you'd hope that at least Stan would be satisfied with his financial achievements.
現在，你可能希望至少史丹會對自己的財務成就感到滿足。
06:03
But nope.
但並非如此。
06:05
This guy was a childhood friend of Michael Jordan, and this all-time great basketball player is someone who belongs to the 1% of the 1% over the 1%.
這傢伙是麥可·喬丹的童年好友，而這位史上最偉大的籃球選手屬於那1%中的頂尖1%中的1%。
06:14
And well, compared to Michael's fortune of about $2 billion, Stan's yearly salary of $10 million suddenly seems like peanuts.
與麥可約20億美元的財富相比，史丹每年1,000萬美元的薪水突然顯得微不足道。
06:23
Does it end here?
這就結束了嗎？
06:25
Well, no, it doesn't, because Michael occasionally attends parties with celebrities where a guy named Jeff Bezos shows up.
並沒有，因為麥可偶爾會參加名人派對，而傑夫·貝佐斯也會出現在那裡。
06:34
Bezos is the top 1% of the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.
貝佐斯是那1%中的頂尖1%中的1%中的1%。
06:39
And he increased his net worth by about $75 billion in 2020, now sitting at something like $200 billion.
他在2020年增加了約750億美元的淨資產，現在擁有約2,000億美元的財富。
06:48
That's always a bigger fish.
總是有更大的魚。
06:51
The type of envy which has emerged from comparisons of this kind has caused a lot of people to do foolish things throughout history.
這種比較所產生的嫉妒心理，在歷史上導致許多人做出愚蠢的事情。
06:59
Some have leveraged their portfolios to the teeth in order to move up to a higher pyramid, just to lose it all and then commit suicide.
有些人為了爬上更高的金字塔，將投資組合槓桿到極限，結果失去一切，甚至自殺。
07:08
Some have acted on insider information and lost both personal reputation and then later their freedom when they've gone to jail.
有些人利用內線消息交易，不僅失去個人聲譽，後來還失去自由，被送進監獄。
07:15
Many have forsaken their families and then had their partners leaving them or cheating on them or both as a result.
許多人為此放棄家庭，結果伴侶離開他們，或對他們不忠，或兩者兼具。
07:23
By watching this channel and learning on how to become a successful investor, chances are that you will at some point reach a level of financial freedom that the average Joe can only dream about.
通過觀看這個頻道並學習如何成為成功的投資者，你很有可能在某個時刻達到一般人只能夢想的財務自由水平。
07:34
But you need to, at some point, accept that enough is enough.
但你必須在某個時刻接受「知足常樂」的道理。
07:40
We will not trade something that we have a need for something that we don't have and don't need even if we kind of like to have it.
我們不會為了得到我們不需要的東西，而放棄我們真正需要的東西，即使我們有點想要它。
07:50
Takeaway number three, crazy is in the eye of the beholder.
第三個重點，瘋狂與否，端看觀者眼光。
07:56
At a first glance, it seems like a lot of people do crazy things with their money.
乍看之下，許多人似乎用錢做瘋狂的事。
08:01
Some spend it in ridiculous amounts on ridiculous items and others hide it under their mattresses.
有些人花大錢買稀奇古怪的東西，有些人則把錢藏在床墊下。
08:08
But the thing to remember is that people come from different backgrounds, with different childhoods, different parents, different life experiences and different educations.
但要記住的是，每個人來自不同的背景，有不同的童年、不同的父母、不同的人生經歷和不同的教育。
08:18
All this adds up to different perspectives and different values.
這些因素加總起來，形成不同的觀點和不同的價值觀。
08:23
What seems crazy to you might make total sense for me.
對你來說瘋狂的事，對我來說可能完全合理。
08:28
Morgan uses the example of lottery tickets in the book.
摩根在書中以彩票為例。
08:31
The lowest income households in the US spends more than $400 per year on the lottery.
美國最低收入的家庭每年花超過400美元買彩票。
08:37
This is four times more than the average in the highest income group.
這比最高收入群體的平均值高出四倍。
08:40
Combine this with the fact that more than a third of Americans cannot come up with $400 for an emergency.
再加上超過三分之一的美國人無法在緊急情況下拿出400美元。
08:48
Do these people spend their emergency buffer on lottery tickets?
這些人是否把緊急備用金都花在彩票上？
08:52
Seems crazy, doesn't it?
看起來很瘋狂，不是嗎？
08:55
But again, we do not have the same perspective as these individuals.
但我們和這些人的觀點不同。
08:59
Try to see it from their perspective.
試著從他們的角度看問題。
09:02
They live paycheck to paycheck, with little room to save money.
他們靠薪水過日子，幾乎沒有存錢的空間。
09:06
They often lack education, and thus they also lack a nice career trajectory.
他們通常缺乏教育，因此也缺乏良好的職業發展前景。
09:11
They can't afford a nice vacation or a new car, and they can't put their children through college without a mountain of debt.
他們負擔不起豪華假期或新車，也無法讓孩子在不背負巨額債務的情況下上大學。
09:18
Buying a lottery ticket is their way of buying into the dream that many of us already live.
買彩票是他們買入許多人已經過著的夢想的方式。
09:24
That is why they buy more lottery tickets than we do.
這就是為什麼他們比我們買更多彩票。
09:28
Not so crazy, after all, perhaps.
也許，這並不那麼瘋狂。
09:31
So how does this make you a better investor?
這如何讓你成為更好的投資者？
09:34
For one thing, by acknowledging that we are different, we become less tempted to copying an investment portfolio or strategy which doesn't suit our own goals.
首先，承認我們各有不同，能讓我們不再那麼容易被誘惑，去複製不適合自己目標的投資組合或策略。
09:44
For example, our risk profile might be higher than that of a billionaires, as our focus is more on the getting rich part, and not so much about staying rich.
例如，我們的風險承受能力可能比億萬富翁更高，因為我們更專注於致富，而不是守富。
09:54
Copying the billionaires portfolio might be sub-optimal for your goals.
複製億萬富翁的投資組合可能不符合你的目標。
10:00
Acknowledging differences can also help us to say no more easily to investments that are outside our own circle of competence.
承認差異也能幫助我們更輕易地拒絕超出自己能力範圍的投資。
10:08
Take GameStop, for example.
以GameStop為例。
10:11
As I am not a trader, I didn't participate in this drama at all.
因為我不是交易員，所以完全沒有參與這場風波。
10:16
It's simply not my card to play.
這根本不是我的強項。
10:19
Understanding different people's perspectives, or at least that there are different lenses to see the world through, will help you make better sense of our society and lead you on the path that is yours.
What does the Great Depression, World War II, the financial crisis, and COVID-19 all have in common?
大蕭條、第二次世界大戰、金融危機和COVID-19有什麼共同點？
10:43
They were all events which shaped our society, they had huge impacts on the financial markets, and they were pretty much impossible to foresee.
它們都是塑造我們社會的事件，對金融市場產生巨大影響，而且幾乎無法預見。
10:53
Nassim Taleb, who is one of my favorite authors, would refer to these events as black swans.
我最喜歡的作者之一納西姆·塔雷伯會稱這些事件為黑天鵝。
10:59
The definition of a black swan is that, one, it's an outlier.
黑天鵝的定義是，一、它是一個異常值。
11:04
Nothing that has happened before can convincingly point to even the possibility of the event.
過去發生的任何事都無法令人信服地指向這個事件的可能性。
11:10
Two, it carries an extreme impact.
二、它帶來極端的影響。
11:14
Three, it becomes explainable only after the fact.
三、它只能在事後才能被解釋。
11:18
Human nature fools us into believing that we should have been able to know it would happen all along.
人性欺騙我們，讓我們相信自己本應能預見它的發生。
11:24
Imagine it is Black Monday, 1987.
想像一下，現在是1987年的黑色星期一。
11:27
How would you have reacted to the market losing almost one fourth of its value in a single day?
當市場在一天內幾乎損失了四分之一的價值時，你會如何反應？
11:33
Would you have been one of the individuals that shouted, sell, sell, or would you have been able to weather the storm, perhaps putting in additional chips which you've kept on the sidelines?
你會是那種大喊「賣出、賣出」的人嗎？還是能夠撐過風暴，甚至把手邊的閒錢再投入市場？
11:45
Here's an interesting fact.
這裡有一個有趣的事實。
11:46
If you invested in the S&P 500 index 20 years ago, but you missed out on the four best performing stock market days, you'd have a 164% return, instead of 291%.
The moral of this takeaway is that it's more useful to prepare yourself, both mentally and financially, for a disaster which you cannot foresee than hoping that you're able to act before everyone else.
這個啟示告訴我們，與其期望自己能比別人更快行動，不如在心理和財務上做好準備，以應對無法預見的災難。
12:16
Stop listening to macro projections.
不要再聽宏觀經濟預測了。
12:19
The things that will cause big fear among the investment community in the future are the things that are unlikely to be foreseen anyways.
未來在投資界引發巨大恐慌的事，本來就不太可能被預見。
12:29
Takeaway number five, the seduction of pessimism.
第五個啟示：悲觀主義的誘惑。
12:34
If I were to give you a bunch of reasons to why the market will crash later this year, mentioning the gigantic US governmental debt that stimulus checks may lead to the return of inflation, and perhaps something about a new strain of COVID-19, you would most likely
be intrigued, and perhaps end up with quite a negative view of where in the market cycle that we are at the moment.
感到好奇，甚至對當前市場週期的位置產生相當負面的看法。
12:57
Where I instead to give you examples of why things probably will continue to get better, by showing how life expectancy is rising, how sustainable energy is getting cheaper, or how computing power is exploding, you would most likely shrug your shoulders and nothing twice about it.
We all know that the pessimistic person sounds so very intelligent, and the optimist sounds naive in comparison.
我們都知道，悲觀的人聽起來很聰明，而樂觀的人相比之下顯得天真。
13:21
Why is that?
為什麼會這樣？
13:23
Daniel Kahneman, the author of Thinking Fast and Slow, says that a symmetry towards loss and listening to pessimists is an evolutionary trait.
《快思慢想》的作者丹尼爾·卡尼曼說，對損失的敏感性和傾聽悲觀者的言論是一種進化特徵。
13:32
When directly compared or weighted against each other, losses loom larger than gains.
在直接比較或權衡時，損失比收益更引人注目。
13:38
Organisms that treated threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce.
將威脅視為比機會更緊迫的生物，有更好的生存和繁殖機會。
13:46
We tend to listen to pessimists more carefully, not only for evolutionary reasons, but also because progress happens much slower than setbacks do.
我們傾向於更認真聽取悲觀者的意見，不僅是因為進化的原因，還因為進步比挫折來得慢。
13:55
Progress rarely happens overnight, but setbacks often do.
進步很少一夜之間發生，但挫折經常如此。
14:00
Because tragedies and setbacks happen during much shorter time periods, it's much easier to create an intriguing and persuading story around it, and thus it receives more attention.
To create an optimistic story about the future, we must look at a longer time horizons.
要講述一個關於未來的樂觀故事，我們必須看更長的時間範圍。
14:16
This often becomes more vague and less dramatic.
這通常會變得更模糊且不那麼戲劇化。
14:19
Knowing that you will perhaps be more fascinated by a pessimist, and less so by an optimist, can perhaps help you becoming less asymmetric towards this in the future.
知道你可能會對悲觀主義者更感興趣，而對樂觀主義者興趣較低，或許能幫助你在未來減少這方面的不對稱性。
14:29
The world is better than you think, as Sweden's Hans Rüsling would have said.
世界比你想像的更美好，正如瑞典的漢斯·羅斯林所說。
14:36
So, you are not going to get rich in this stock market without paying the price of volatility.
因此，你在這個股市中不會不經歷波動的代價就致富。
14:43
Envy is the worst of the seven deadly sins.
嫉妒是七宗罪中最壞的一種。
14:47
Never risk what you have and need for what you don't have and don't need.
永遠不要為了你沒有且不需要的東西，而冒險失去你已經擁有且需要的東西。
14:52
Different perspectives cause different causes of action to become reasonable or rational.
不同的觀點會導致不同的行動原因變得合理或理性。
14:58
Instead of trying to foresee disasters, prepare yourself mentally and financially so that you can survive them.
與其試圖預見災難，不如在心理和財務上做好準備，以便能夠度過它們。
15:05
And, be careful when taking investment advice.
此外，在接受投資建議時要小心。
15:08
Understand that pessimism appeals more to your survival instincts than optimism does.
要理解悲觀主義比樂觀主義更能引發你的生存本能。
15:13
That was it for today, but that was not it from Morgan Haussel.
今天的內容到此為止，但摩根·豪塞爾的內容還沒有結束。
15:17
Check out his book, It's a Real Gem.
看看他的書，這是一本真正的瑰寶。
15:20
Here's a suggestion on what you can watch next if you want to understand more about human psychology and its relation to money.
