A cognitive bias is a systematic error in
thinking.
認知偏誤是一種思考上的系統性錯誤。
00:05
It also works as a mental shortcut to making
decisions or judgements.
它也是一種用於做決策或判斷的心理捷徑。
00:10
Everyone is susceptible to cognitive bias,
no matter their age, gender, or cultural background.
每個人都容易受到認知偏誤的影響，無論年齡、性別或文化背景為何。
00:15
Why do cognitive biases exist?
為什麼會存在認知偏誤？
00:18
Our brains need to take in an incredible amount
of information but it also wants to save as much thinking energy as possible.
我們的大腦需要接收大量的資訊，但也希望能盡可能節省思考能量。
00:26
So, it relies on generalities or rules of
thumb (also called heuristics) to help it make hard decisions fast.
因此，它依賴概括性的概念或經驗法則（也稱為啟發法）來幫助自己快速做出困難的決定。
00:34
You can think of a cognitive bias as an information
filter, through which objective information flows and is transformed as it passes through.
你可以把認知偏誤想像成一個資訊過濾器，客觀的資訊流經其中，在通過時被轉化。
00:42
Like coffee grounds and water changing into
coffee — it’s the same ingredients but a slightly different experience once it’s
transformed.
就像咖啡渣和水變成咖啡一樣——成分相同，但轉化後的體驗略有不同。
00:50
We usually rely on cognitive biases when we’re
emotional, rushed to decide, or feel social pressure to make a choice.
當我們情緒化、匆忙做決定，或感受到做出選擇的社會壓力時，通常會依賴認知偏誤。
00:57
However, everyday thinking and decision-making
are subject to cognitive biases as well.
然而，日常的思考和決策同樣會受到認知偏誤的影響。
01:02
In this video, I’ve outlined ten common
cognitive biases and ways to avoid them in your everyday thinking.
在這支影片中，我概述了十種常見的認知偏誤，以及在日常思考中避免它們的方法。
01:09
1.
1.
01:10
Self-Serving Bias
This is the tendency for people to protect their ego and self-esteem.
自利性偏誤
這是人們為了保護自我與自尊而產生的傾向。
01:16
It often takes the form of “cherry-picking”
feedback to support your high opinion of yourself or overlooking your own faults and failures.
它通常表現為「選擇性」接收回饋，以支持你對自己的高度評價，或是忽略自己的缺點和失敗。
01:24
You might be dismissing good feedback because
you don’t want to bruise your ego.
你可能會拒絕接受好的回饋，因為你不想打擊自己的自尊心。
01:29
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “Have
I been given a piece of feedback repeatedly, that I’m ignoring because I believe it doesn’t
apply to me?” 2.
為了避免這種偏誤，問問自己：「是否有某個回饋我反覆聽到，但我卻因為認為它不適用於我而忽略？」2.
01:38
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
This is a form of social anxiety that makes people scared they’re being left out of
exciting or interesting events.
FOMO（錯失恐懼症）
這是一種社交焦慮，會讓人們害怕自己被排除在刺激或有趣的活動之外。
01:49
It can be triggered by posts on social media,
where it looks like everyone is having fun without you.
社交媒體上的貼文可能會引發這種感覺，看起來就像大家都在沒有你的情況下玩得很開心。
01:54
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “Do I
feel left out of an invisible ‘in-crowd’?
為了避免這種偏誤，問問自己：「我是否感覺自己被排除在某個隱形的『圈子』之外？」
02:00
Am I doing something because I want to, or
because I’ll feel left out if I don’t?
我做這件事是因為我想做，還是因為如果我不做會覺得被排擠？
02:05
3.
3.
02:06
Gambler’s Fallacy
This principle describes peoples’ tendency to think a random event is less likely to
happen in the future if it’s happened in the past.
For example, if I flip a coin that lands on
heads 100 times in a row, most people assume it will land on tails next.
舉例來說，如果我拋一枚硬幣，連續 100 次都是正面，大多數人會假設下一次會是反面。
02:22
But actually, each new flip is independent
of what’s happened in the past.
但實際上，每一次新的拋擲都與過去的結果相互獨立。
02:27
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “Is this
event dependent or independent from past outcomes?
為避免這種偏誤，請問自己：「這個事件是否依賴於過去的結果？」
02:34
In other words, am I judging a random event
by unrelated historical events?
換句話說，我是否正用無關的歷史事件來評斷一個隨機事件？
02:39
If I didn’t know anything about past performance,
would I still make the same choice?” 4.
如果我對過去的表現一無所知，我還會做出同樣的選擇嗎？」 4.
02:45
Actor-Observer Bias
This is the tendency for people to attribute their own failures to external reasons, and
others failures to internal causes.
行動者—觀察者偏誤
02:54
For example, when you’re late, it’s because
there was too much traffic.
舉例來說，當你遲到時，是因為交通太壅塞。
02:58
But you assume that Jane was late because
she is disorganized.
但你卻假設珍遲到是因為她沒有條理。
03:00
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “Am I
making assumptions about other peoples’ failings?
為避免這種偏誤，請問自己：「我是否對他人的失敗妄下斷語？
03:07
Have I let myself off the hook for bad behavior
one too many times, while being tough on your colleagues, friends, or family members’
failings?” 5.
我是否常常原諒自己的不良行為，卻對同事、朋友或家人的失敗嚴格以待？」 5.
03:17
Narrative Bias
This describes peoples’ tendency to make sense of the world through stories.
敘事偏誤
這描述了人們傾向於透過故事來理解世界的特性。
03:23
Our brains have to process a lot of information,
so it creates a story to link different items.
我們的大腦必須處理大量資訊，因此會創造一個故事來連結不同的項目。
03:29
It also ignores facts that don’t fit the
narrative.
它也會忽略不符合這個故事的事實。
03:32
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “What
story am I telling myself about this choice, event, or product?
為避免這種偏誤，請問自己：「我正在告訴自己一個什麼樣的故事，關於這個選擇、事件或產品？
03:40
Have I ignored anything that might disprove
this mental story?
我是否忽略了任何可能推翻這個心理故事的事實？
03:44
What happens if I turn this story on its head?” 6.
如果我把這個故事完全反轉，會發生什麼事？」 6.
03:48
Survivorship Bias
This describes the mental error of only concentrating on the projects or people that have been successful,
and overlooking those that failed when analyzing what made something a success.
A famous example of Survivorship Bias in action
comes from military history.
一個倖存者偏差在現實中運作的著名例子
04:05
During World War II, statistician Abraham
Wald was working for the U.S.
二次世界大戰期間，統計學家亞伯拉罕·華德
04:09
military to try and figure out where planes should have
their armor reinforced, in order to avoid getting shot down.
軍方試圖找出戰機的哪些部位應該
04:15
The military’s initial efforts weren’t
as successful as they’d like, and Wald knew why.
軍方最初的努力並未
04:21
The military had decided to only reinforce
those areas where planes had been shot.
軍方當時決定只強化
04:26
But the problem was, they were only seeing
planes that had returned.
但問題在於，他們只看得到
04:29
In other words, where these planes had been
hit was survivorable damage, because they’d flown home.
換句話說，這些戰機被擊中的部位
04:35
The planes who’d crashed hadn’t returned
and therefore hadn’t brought back data about the places where the damage proved fatal.
墜毀的戰機並未返航，
04:42
Wald proposed that the military reinforce
the areas where the surviving planes had not been shot, as those were the places where
downed planes had been damaged.
華德建議軍方應加強那些倖存戰機未被擊中的部位，因為這些地方正是墜毀戰機曾受損的區域。
04:52
Wald’s brilliant observation was correct,
and saved many planes from a crash landing.
華德的精闢觀察是正確的，
04:57
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “When
I look back to see what’s gone right, have I also looked at what’s gone wrong?
為了避免這種偏差，請問自己：「當我回顧
05:05
Am I accounting for the features, tendencies
or characteristics of failure as well as success?
我是否同時納入了失敗與成功
05:10
What features or choices do success and failure
have in common?” 7.
成功與失敗有哪些特徵或選擇是共通的？
05:15
Anchoring
This is the tendency for people to use the first piece of information they see to judge
the following information.
錨定效應
這是指人們傾向於利用他們最先看到的資訊，來判斷後續接收的資訊。
05:22
For instance, if you see two bottles of wine
— the first one you see costs $2000 and the second costs $200 — you’re less likely
to think of the second bottle as expensive
例如，如果你看到兩瓶葡萄酒——第一瓶要價兩千元，第二瓶只要兩百元——你就不太可能認為第二瓶酒很貴。
05:33
because you anchored to $2000 as the cost
of a bottle of wine.
因為你以2000美元作為
05:38
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “In what
context did I see this product and its price?
為了避免這種偏差，請問自己：「我是在什麼
05:44
Is the company making an effort to anchor
me against something more expensive, to cloud my judgment?” 8.
這家公司是不是在刻意用更貴的東西來對我進行錨定，藉此混淆我的判斷？
05:50
Halo Effect
This is the tendency for people to let one positive trait guide their total opinion of
a person, product, or experience.
光環效應
這是指人們容易因為某個單一正面特質，而影響對某個人、產品或體驗的整體評價。
05:59
For example, people consider good-looking
individuals more intelligent, more successful, and more popular.
例如，人們認為長得好看的人
06:06
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “What
do I really like about this?” then imagine it without that trait.
為避免這種偏誤，請問自己：「我真正喜歡這個的什麼？」然後想像它沒有那個特質。
06:13
Do you feel the same way?
你的感覺還是一樣嗎？
06:14
Interrogate your feelings about this product,
person, or experience.
檢視你對這個產品、人或體驗的感受。
06:19
9.
9.
06:20
Hyperbolic Discounting
This is the tendency for people to value immediate rewards like sleeping in, over long-term rewards
like being fit.
雙曲貼現
這是指人們傾向於重視像睡過頭這樣的立即獎勵，而非像保持健康這樣的長期獎勵。
06:29
This means people have to outwit their own
psychology in order to get in a workout or achieve other goals.
這意味著人們必須智勝自己的心理，才能去運動或達成其他目標。
06:35
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “What
tends to win in my mind — the here and now or the long term benefits?
為避免這種偏誤，請問自己：「在我心中通常是什麼贏了——是此時此刻，還是長期的好處？」
06:43
Which is more important to me in the long
run — comfort or this goal?” Here’s a hint: Picture yourself in 10 years
— are you better off for having prioritized the bigger picture?
Planning Fallacy
This is the tendency for people to underestimate how much time it will take to complete a future
task.
規劃謬誤
這是指人們傾向於低估未來任務所需完成時間的現象。
07:02
In other words, people aren’t realistic
about their timelines.
換句話說，人們對自己的時間規劃不切實際。
07:06
TO AVOID THIS BIAS, ASK YOURSELF: “How much
time did this project take last time?
為避免這種偏誤，請問自己：「上次這個計畫花了多少時間？」
07:11
Have I accounted for delays and setbacks that
I can’t yet anticipate?” An interesting feature of cognitive biases
is that even if you’re aware of them, you
「我是否已將無法預見的延遲和挫折納入考量？」認知偏誤的一個有趣特點是，即使你意識到它們，
07:24
still have to stay attentive to what biases
might be driving your thinking.
你仍必須留意哪些偏誤可能正在影響你的思維。
07:28
You can also follow a process like this one
to help keep yourself vigilant: First, be aware of the common cognitive biases
that exist (you’ve started that process with this video).
Pay attention and actively work to combat
cognitive biases in your decision-making process.
注意並積極在決策過程中對抗認知偏誤。
07:47
Last, question yourself.
最後，質疑自己。
07:50
The “ask yourself” considerations in this
video are a good place to start, but make sure you have a process in place to de-bias
your thinking when making decisions.
本影片中的「問自己」考量是很好的起點，但請確保你在做決策時，有一套流程來消除思維中的偏誤。
How to Make Better Decisions: 10 Cognitive Biases and How to Outsmart Them
