00:00
Have you ever seen your portfolio drop 10% and suddenly thought, "Maybe I should get out." Or worse, have you
你是否曾看過自己的投資組合下跌 10%，然後突然心想：「也許我該出場了。」或者更糟的是，當你看到它反彈 20% 時，是否曾有種難以抗拒的衝動想進場買進？
00:05
watched it rebound by 20% and felt this overwhelming urge to buy in?
嗯，有這種感覺的不只你一人。
00:10
Well, you wouldn't be alone.
因為市場發生的事不僅僅是經濟層面的問題。
00:11
Because what happens in the markets isn't just economic.
它不全是理性的，而是心理層面的。
00:15
It's not just rational, it's psychological.
而要駕馭這一點，最需要的便是情緒智商。
00:16
And navigating that takes emotional intelligence more than anything.
因此，Stake 與我聯手為您帶來「投資者 EQ 系列」。
00:21
That's why Stake and I have teamed up to bring you the investor EQ series.
我們將探討驅動投資者行為的情緒力量，以及如何掌控它們，
00:26
We'll explore the emotional forces that drive investor behavior and how to control
以做出更明智的決策。
00:29
them to make smarter decisions.
畢竟，管理好自己的心態尤為重要，特別是在市場開始劇烈波動之際。
00:33
After all, managing your mind is particularly important, especially when markets start
VIX 是波動率指數，又稱為華爾街的恐懼指標，它反映了市場有時會變得多么難以預測且情緒高漲。
00:35
swinging wildly.
我是說，我們都經歷過這種情況。
00:37
The VIX is a volatility index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, and it reflects just how
這週大家都在談 AI 的樂觀前景，下週又對潛在的升息或全球衝突感到恐慌。
00:41
unpredictable and emotionally charged the markets can get sometimes.
股票指數像溜溜球一樣上下震盪。
00:45
I mean, we've all been there.
債券收益率四處亂竄，新聞標題幾乎能在一夜之間從看多翻轉為末日論。
00:47
One week it's about AI optimism, the next it's panic about potential rate hikes or global
而身處這片嘈雜聲浪中心的，正是你——試圖在這一切混亂中保持理性的投資者。
00:51
Stock indices bounce around like a yo-yo.
股指像溜溜球一樣上下波動。
00:54
Bond yields go all over the place and the headlines can flip from bullish to apocalyptic almost
公債殖利率走勢混亂，而新聞標題幾乎能在一夜之間由看漲轉為末日預言。
00:59
overnight.
一夜之間。
01:00
And caught in the middle of all this noise is you, the investor, trying to stay rational while all this
而身處這片嘈雜聲浪中心的，正是你——試圖在這一切混亂中保持理性的投資者。
01:04
is going on.
發生了什麼事。
01:06
But here's the thing.
但重點是。
01:08
This isn't just about being smart.
這不僅僅是關於聰明。
01:10
Even the most intelligent investors fall into traps when emotions start running the
即使是最聰明的投資者，當情緒開始主導時，也會掉入陷阱。
01:14
That's where behavioral finance comes in.
這就是行為財務學發揮作用的地方。
01:16
It's the study of how your brain is hardwired to make irrational decisions, especially with money.
它研究的是你的大腦如何被設定為做出非理性決策，尤其是在金錢方面。
01:23
And during volatile times, these psychological biases can do serious
而在波動劇烈的時期，這些心理偏誤可能會對你的投資組合造成嚴重。
01:26
damage to your portfolio.
傷害。
01:28
So, in this video, we're going to break down five of the most dangerous mental traps
因此，在這支影片中，我們將剖析五個最危險的心理陷阱。
01:31
investors commonly fall into during periods of volatility, like right now, and how to beat them.
投資者在波動時期（例如現在）常會掉入的陷阱，以及如何戰勝它們。
01:38
[Music] Let me ask you something.
[音樂] 讓我問你一件事。
01:43
If you'd made an investment of $1,000 and then next week it had risen by 500 bucks, how
如果你做了一筆 1000 美元的投資，然後下週它上漲了 500 美元，你會。
01:46
happy would you feel?
感覺多開心？
01:49
You'd feel pretty good, right?
你會感覺相當好，對吧？
01:50
But what if instead of your investment rising by 500, it fell by that amount instead?
但如果你的投資不是上漲 500，而是下跌了那個金額呢？
01:56
Well, studies have shown that chances are the feeling of loss would sting way more relatively
嗯，研究顯示，相對來說，虧損的感覺通常會比獲利的感覺更令人痛苦。
02:01
than the gain felt good.
38.
02:04
It's called loss aversion, and it's one of the most powerful emotional biases investors
這稱為「損失規避」，它是投資者面臨最強大的情緒偏誤之一。
02:08
Psychologists have shown that on average, the pain of losing money is about twice as strong as the pleasure of
心理學家已證明，平均而言，虧損的痛苦強度大約是獲利的
02:15
So, when your portfolio drops, even just a little, it triggers a wave of discomfort, anxiety, and in many
因此，當你的投資組合下跌，即使只是一點點，都會引發一波不適、焦慮，並在許多
02:21
cases that leads to panic selling.
情況下導致恐慌性賣出。
02:26
But here's the danger.
但這就是危險之處。
02:27
Acting on that impulse often locks in your losses at the worst possible time.
依循這種衝動行事，往往會在最糟糕的時機讓損失成真。
02:32
Think back to March 2020.
回想一下 2020 年 3 月。
02:32
The market collapsed.
市場崩盤。
02:35
People freaked out and they pulled their money out at the bottom.
人們驚慌失措，在市場底部把錢撤出。
02:38
And then what happened?
然後發生了什麼事？
02:39
Well, the fastest bull run in history that lasted a solid year and a half.
隨之而來的是史上最快速的牛市，持續了整整一年半。
02:43
If they had stayed calm, stuck to their plan, and understood that this emotional response was predictable, they
如果他們當時保持冷靜、堅持原定計畫，並理解這種情緒反應是可以預期的，
02:49
might have come out the other side feeling much better off.
他們在度過危機後，可能會感覺自己好得多。
02:53
The takeaway: Feeling fear when the market drops is totally normal, but acting on it is
重點是：市場下跌時感到恐懼完全正常，但是否要依此行動
02:58
optional.
則是可選的。
02:59
And when you understand why it feels so bad, you give yourself the power to sit tight and make better
當你理解為何會感覺如此糟糕，你就能賦予自己力量，在長期保持鎮定並做出更佳
03:04
decisions in the long run.
的決策。
03:07
Remember, the market's best days usually closely follow the worst days.
記住，市場表現最好的日子通常緊接在最糟糕的日子之後。
03:11
And studies have overwhelmingly shown that time in the market beats timing the market.
且研究已壓倒性地證明，在市場中停留的時間（Time in the market）勝過試圖預測進出時點（Timing the market）。
03:18
Okay, moving on to our next psychological bias.
好的，接著我們來看下一個心理偏誤。
03:22
We have herd mentality.
我們有從眾心理。
03:23
This one is a killer.
這點非常致命。
03:25
Have you ever bought a stock just because someone else was?
你是否曾經只因為別人買了某支股票就跟著買？
03:28
I'm certainly guilty of this one.
我對此絕對有過錯。
03:29
Back in my younger years, I used to watch a few fund managers talking about what they were buying on
在我年輕的時候，我曾經看一些基金經理在 YouTube 上討論他們正在買什麼。
03:33
YouTube.
YouTube。
03:34
And like a sheep, I bought this company that I had no clue about and ended up falling from about $320 when I
然後像一隻綿羊一樣，我買了這家我一無所知的公司，結果股價從我買進時的約 320 美元跌到不到 1 美元。
03:40
bought it to less than a dollar.
買進時的約 320 美元跌到不到 1 美元。
03:44
And maybe you've done the same thing.
也許你也做過同樣的事。
03:44
Yeah, that one hurt.
是的，那真的很痛。
03:46
Maybe it was all over Reddit.
也許是 Reddit 上大家都在討論。
03:47
Maybe your friends were talking about at the pub.
也許是你的朋友在酒吧裡談論。
03:50
Maybe you just didn't want to miss out.
也許你只是不想錯過機會。
03:53
Well, that's the hurting bias, the psychological tendency to follow the crowd, especially in
嗯，這就是羊群效應，一種跟隨群眾的心理傾向，尤其是在不確定的時刻。
03:57
moments of uncertainty.
時刻的不確定性。
04:01
It just feels safer to be with everyone else.
跟大家在一起感覺就是比較安全。
04:05
But unfortunately in investing it often leads you straight off a cliff.
但不幸的是，在投資中，這往往會直接帶你走向毀滅。
04:09
Think about the meme stock craze.
想想迷因股的狂熱。
04:12
Herd mentality at its finest.
這就是極致的從眾心理。
04:13
GameStop, AMC, Bed Bath and Beyond.
GameStop、AMC、Bed Bath and Beyond。
04:15
Prices surged not because of fundamentals, but because everyone was joining in the buying
價格飆升並非因為基本面，而是因為所有人都加入了購買行列。
04:20
Nobody wanted to be left behind.
沒有人想被抛在後面。
04:22
But for every person who made money on the way up, there were a dozen people who bought near the top and rode it all
但在一路上賺到錢的人之外，還有十幾個人在高點附近買進，然後一路看著它跌回原點。
04:28
the way back down.
85.
04:30
The truth is, if you're hearing about an investment opportunity from a mate or at a pub,
事實是，如果你是從朋友那裡，或是在酒吧裡聽到投資機會，
04:34
chances are it's already too late.
那很可能為時已晚。
04:38
And the reality is most of these meme stock investors following the herd cop losses
而現實是，這些跟風的迷因股投資者，大多數都承受了
04:41
of up to 80%.
高達 80% 的虧損。
04:43
So why does it happen?
為什麼會這樣呢？
04:44
Well, hurting plays into two powerful emotions.
這其實利用了兩種強大的情緒。
04:48
Fear and FOMO.
恐懼和 FOMO（錯失恐懼症）。
04:50
Fear of doing the wrong thing by yourself, aka fear of being a contrarian, and then FOMO.
害怕自己做錯事，也就是害怕成為逆向操作者，然後是 FOMO。
04:57
fear of missing out on gains others seem to be making.
害怕錯過別人似乎正在賺取的獲利。
04:59
But here's the truth.
但真相是這樣的。
05:02
Crowds don't think, they react.
群眾不會思考，他們只會反應。
05:04
And when you outsource your decision-m to what everyone else is doing, you're giving up
當你把決策外包給其他人的行為時，你就放棄了
05:07
the one edge that you actually have, which is your own judgment.
你唯一擁有的優勢，那就是你自己的判斷力。
05:13
And here's the other problem.
還有另一個問題。
05:14
Say you follow the herd into a stock that's flying high like Nvidia, and then 2 days later it's
假設你跟著人群買進一檔像 Nvidia 這樣飆升的股票，結果兩天後它就...
05:18
dropped 15%.
下跌了 15%。
05:20
Did a good deal just get better, meaning you should be buying more?
一筆好交易是否因此變得更好，意味著你應該加碼買進？
05:25
Or is there a fundamental problem with the investment and really you should be selling?
還是這項投資存在根本性的問題，你其實應該賣出？
05:31
Well, you won't know because you didn't do your own research into the business.
你不會知道答案，因為你沒有對這家公司做足功課。
05:36
You simply followed the herd.
你只是盲目跟隨群眾。
05:37
Just because a trade is popular doesn't mean it's smart.
一項交易熱門，不代表它就是明智的。
05:37
The takeaway?
重點是什麼？
05:40
In fact, the louder the hype, the more cautious you probably need to be.
事實上，喧囂聲越大，你可能越需要保持謹慎。
05:47
Recency bias is a real killer when it comes to investing because it often makes investors do the exact opposite of
近期偏好（Recency bias）在投資中是致命的殺手，因為它常讓投資人做出與
05:53
what they should be doing.
理應採取的行動完全相反的決定。
05:56
It's the psychological tendency to believe that the current trend, whether good or bad,
這是一種心理傾向，讓人相信當前的趨勢，無論好壞，
06:00
will just keep going.
都會持續下去。
06:03
This bias shows up everywhere from financial markets to roulette tables.
這種偏誤隨處可見，從金融市場到賭桌皆然。
06:07
You know those hot number displays you see in casinos?
你知道在賭場看到的那些「熱門號碼」顯示板嗎？
06:09
They're there to exploit your recency bias.
它們的存在就是為了利用你的近期偏好。
06:12
the false belief that because a number hit recently, it's more likely to hit again.
讓你誤以為因為某個號碼最近開出，所以它再次開出的機率更高。
06:18
But statistically, nothing changes.
但從統計學來看，什麼都沒改變。
06:20
Right now, in investing, this bias shows up in two dangerous ways.
現在，在投資中，這種偏誤以兩種危險的方式呈現。
06:24
During bull markets, it lures people into thinking that stocks will rise forever, leading them to buy in at
在牛市期間，它會引誘人們認為股價會永遠上漲，導致他們在
06:29
stretch valuations.
過高的估值時買進。
06:31
And in bare markets, it convinces people that the pain will never end, causing them to sell out near
在熊市中，它會讓人們相信痛苦將永無止盡，導致他們在接近
06:36
the bottom.
波段底部時賣出。
06:37
It makes investors do exactly the opposite of what Warren Buffett advises.
它讓投資者做出與華倫・巴菲特建議完全相反的行為。
06:41
muffin with egg and cheese.
加蛋起司的瑪芬。
06:43
>> Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy.
>> 在別人恐懼時貪婪，在別人貪婪時恐懼。
06:48
Take the 2022 bare market.
以 2022 年的熊市為例。
06:49
After months of steady declines, a lot of people gave up on stocks entirely, thinking the pain would
經過數月的持續下跌，許多人完全放棄股票，認為痛苦
06:53
just continue.
只會持續下去。
06:55
But what happened next?
但接下來發生了什麼事？
06:57
A sharp rebound.
強勁反彈。
06:58
Same thing happened in 2009, same in 2020.
2009 年發生同樣的事，2020 年也是如此。
07:01
The problem isn't just that trends exist because yes, markets can move in cycles.
問題不僅在於趨勢存在，因為市場確實會循環波動。
07:06
The problem is assuming that those trends will continue indefinitely and then making
問題在於假設這些趨勢將無限期持續，然後僅
07:10
short-term decisions.
根據該假設做出
07:12
based purely on that assumption.
短期決策。
07:14
Now, you might be thinking, well, hang on.
現在，你可能會想，等等。
07:16
Don't markets show momentum during bull and bear phases?
市場在牛市和熊市階段難道不會顯示出動能嗎？
07:18
Well, that's a fair question, but when researchers at Cresmon Research studied all the trading days between
這是個好問題，但當 Cresmon Research 的研究人員分析 1954 年至 2024 年間
07:24
1954 and 2024, they found something interesting.
所有的交易日時，他們發現了一些有趣的現象。
07:28
Up days occurred 53.7% of the time and down days 46.3% of the time.
上漲的日子佔 53.7%，下跌的日子佔 46.3%。
07:34
And that ratio barely changed between bull and bare markets.
這個比率在牛市和熊市之間幾乎沒有變化。
07:40
So, even when we think momentum is obvious, from day to day, it's still basically a coin
所以，即使我們認為動能顯而易見，但從日線級別來看，它基本上仍是一場拋硬幣
07:44
That's why it's so dangerous to build your strategy around short-term charts or recent trends.
這就是為什麼圍繞短期圖表或近期趨勢來制定策略是如此危險。
07:50
They lie to you, and they attempt to break your long-term plan.
它們會欺騙你，並試圖破壞你的長期計劃。
07:50
They're noisy.
它們充滿雜訊。
07:56
Instead, anchor yourself to your own financial goals, not whatever the market did last
相反地，你應該錨定在自己的財務目標上，而不是上週市場發生了什麼事。
08:00
[Music] Have you ever had a strong opinion about a stock or the market, then found
[音樂] 你是否曾對某支股票或市場抱持強烈看法，然後發現
08:06
yourself only finding articles or watching videos that agreed with your beliefs?
自己只尋找支持你信念的文章或觀看相關影片？
08:10
Well, if you answered yes, then you probably falling victim to the most prevalent behavioral bias in investing,
如果你的答案是肯定的，那麼你可能已成為投資中最普遍的行為偏誤——
08:16
confirmation bias.
確認偏誤（confirmation bias）——的受害者。
08:18
It's one of the most subtle but dangerous traps in investing because most of the time you have no
這是投資中最隱晦卻又最危險的陷阱之一，因為大多數時候，你根本
08:23
idea you're even falling for it.
不知道自己已經深陷其中。
08:25
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember information in a way that reinforces
確認偏誤是指傾向於以強化你既有信念的方式去搜尋、解讀和記憶資訊，
08:32
your existing beliefs while filtering out anything that contradicts them.
同時過濾掉任何與其相悖的內容。
08:38
And a lot of the time, you don't even realize you're doing it.
而很多時候，你甚至沒有意識到自己正在這麼做。
08:41
Let's say you're convinced that the market is going to crash.
舉例來說，如果你深信市場即將崩盤。
08:43
Confirmation bias makes every negative headline jump out at you.
確認偏誤會讓每條負面新聞都格外醒目地跳出來。
08:46
Recession warnings, AI bubble, China slowdown.
衰退警告、AI 泡沫、中國經濟放緩。
08:49
And the reason this happens is your brain is searching for validation.
之所以會這樣，是因為你的大腦正在尋求驗證。
08:52
But anything that points to market strength, strong earnings, positive economic data, central banks stepping
但對於任何顯示市場強勁、強勁獲利、正面經濟數據、央行進場護盤的訊息，
08:59
in, you kind of just ignore it.
你卻視而不見。
09:03
You explain it away or simply dismiss it.
你會將其合理化，或者直接忽視它。
09:03
You know what do they know?
你心想：他們懂什麼？
09:06
And it works the other way, too.
反過來也是一樣。
09:07
If you're all in on a stock because you think it's going to the moon, you'll subconsciously avoid
如果你因為認為某支股票會大漲而全壓進場，
09:11
any bearish research.
你會下意識地避開任何看空的研究。
09:14
You'll only watch bullish YouTubers.
你只會看多頭的 YouTube 頻道。
09:16
You'll scroll past analyst downgrades.
你會滑過分析師調降評等的新聞。
09:19
You might even unfollow people who post bearish takes just to protect your own narrative.
你甚至會取消追蹤發布看空言論的人，只為了保護自己的論述。
09:26
This bias affects everyone because it's actually one of the most useful biases
這種偏誤影響著每個人，因為它其實是身為人類，
09:28
we have in being human.
我們所擁有最有用的偏誤之一。
09:31
You know, if we see a bear in the distance that's running our way, we're not going to
舉例來說，如果我們看到一隻熊正朝我們跑來，
09:34
stick around and consider why it might not be attacking us, right?
我們不會留在原地思考它可能不會攻擊我們，對吧？
09:39
Even if it isn't, our brains are going to make a mental shortcut and assume we're right.
即使它真的不會，我們的大腦也會走捷徑，假設我們是對的。
09:43
And if we don't run away, we'll be dinner.
如果我們不逃跑，就會成為晚餐。
09:45
So, there are reasons behind it.
所以，這背後是有原因的。
09:47
But the danger particularly in the realm of stock market investing is it creates an echo chamber where you become more
但在股票市場投資領域，危險在於它會營造出一個迴聲室，讓你變得越來越有把握，
09:53
and more certain but less and less accurate.
卻越來越不準確。
09:56
You stop updating your view based on new information and instead just dig in deeper.
你不再根據新資訊更新你的看法，反而更加固守己見。
10:02
And that's how smart people end up making very very dumb investing decisions because they're not
這就是為什麼聰明人最終會做出非常非常愚蠢的投資決策，因為他們已經
10:07
actually investing anymore.
不是在投資了。
10:10
They're defending their belief.
他們是在捍衛自己的信念。
10:11
Warren Buffett once said, "What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new
華倫·巴菲特曾說：「人類最擅長的事，就是詮釋所有新資訊，好讓自己先前的結論保持不變。」那麼，該怎麼解決？
10:14
information so that their prior conclusions remain intact." So what's the fix?
你必須刻意挑戰自己的思維。
10:20
You have to deliberately challenge your own thinking.
如果你看好一檔股票，請閱讀反對的論點。
10:24
If you're bullish on a stock, read the bare case.
追蹤那些你不同意其看法的人。
10:25
Follow people that you disagree with.
問問自己：「需要發生什麼事，我才會改變主意？」光是這個問題，就能讓你避開重大
10:28
Ask yourself, "What would need to happen for me to change my mind?" That one question alone can save you from major
損失。
10:34
losses.
因為投資並不是要永遠正確。
10:35
Because investing isn't about being right all the time.
而是更要避免那些你錯得離譜的決策。
10:38
It's more about avoiding the ones that you get badly wrong.
記住巴菲特的第一條規則：不要賠錢。
10:41
Remember Buffett's rule number one, don't lose money.
第二條規則：永遠不要忘記第一條規則。
10:45
Rule number two, never forget rule number one.
假設你以 100 美元買進一檔股票，幾週後跌到 70 美元。
10:49
Let's say you buy a stock at $100 and a few weeks later it drops to 70.
你告訴自己：「不回到 100 美元我絕不賣出。」但殘酷的
10:55
You tell yourself, "I'm not selling it until it gets back to 100." But here's the hard
現實是：
10:59
truth.
市場根本不在乎你當初的買價。
11:00
The market doesn't care what you paid.
那個 100 美元的錨，只存在你的腦海裡，並不存在於現實中。
11:01
The $100 anchor, it exists in your head, not in reality.
那個 100 美元的錨，只存在你的腦海裡，並不存在於現實中。
11:07
This is the anchoring bias in action.
這是「錨定偏誤」在現實中的運作。
11:10
It's when we latch on to an arbitrary number or the first piece of information that we see
當我們死抓著一個任意的數字，或是我們看到的第一筆資訊，
11:14
and we let it cloud our judgment moving forward.
讓它干擾了我們後續的判斷。
11:17
It could be your purchase price, a recent share price high, or even an article you saw that had a
這可能是你的買進價格、近期的股價高點，甚至是你看過某篇帶有特定觀點的文章。
11:23
particular opinion.
一旦我們被這個資訊「錨定」，它就變成了我們每個決策的真理。
11:24
And once we've anchored to that piece of information, it becomes the truth for every decision
一旦我們被這個資訊「錨定」，它就變成了我們每個決策的真理。
11:28
we make.
你會看到有人拒絕賣出明顯下跌的股票，嘴裡說著：「我要等到它反彈再說」；或者有人因為價格比六個月前貴，就猶豫不買一家好公司。
11:29
Even if we find other stuff that makes more sense in investing, this shows up all the time.
即使我們發現了投資上更有道理的依據，這種情況仍不斷發生。
11:35
You see it when someone refuses to sell a stock that's clearly in decline, saying, "I'll wait
你會看到有人拒絕賣出明顯下跌的股票，嘴裡說著：「我要等到它反彈再說」；或者有人因為價格比六個月前貴，就猶豫不買一家好公司。
11:39
until it bounces back, or when someone holds off buying a great business just because it was cheaper 6 months ago."
2008年市場崩盤時，許多投資人被危機前的高點「錨定」了。
11:45
Anchoring tricks us into treating the past as if it's a guide to the future, when really markets and companies are
錨定偏誤讓我們誤以為過去是未來的指引，但事實上，市場和公司是不斷變動的。
11:52
constantly changing.
但等到指數真的回到高點時，他們早已錯過了史上最大的一波牛市。
11:54
Here's a classic example.
這裡有個經典案例。
11:54
As the market was crashing in 2008, a lot of investors anchored to the highs from before the crisis.
2008年市場崩盤時，許多投資人被危機前的高點「錨定」了。
12:01
They refused to buy shares, thinking, "Oh, I'll just wait until the S&P comes back
他們拒絕買進股票，心想：「哦，我要等到 S&P 指數回到原本的位置再說。」
12:04
up to where it was." But by the time it did, they'd already missed out on one of the biggest bull runs in history.
但等到指數真的回到高點時，他們早已錯過了史上最大的一波牛市。
12:12
So, the danger of anchoring is that it turns irrelevant numbers or outdated
所以，錨定偏誤的危險在於，它會把無關的數字或過時的資訊，
12:14
information into emotional benchmarks.
轉化為情緒上的參考基準。
12:17
It creates hesitation, regret, and ultimately inaction when the smarter move would be to reassess the situation
它造成了猶豫、悔恨，並最終導致不作為，而更明智的做法其實是用全新的視角重新評估局勢。
12:24
with fresh eyes.
用全新的視角重新評估局勢。
12:26
So, what can you do about it?
那麼，你能怎麼做呢？
12:28
Well, whenever you find yourself anchored to a specific number or piece of information, ask yourself,
每當你發現自己被某個特定數字或資訊給錨定時，請問問自己，
12:33
why does this number matter?
為什麼這個數字很重要？
12:36
Is this piece of information up to-date?
這項資訊是最新的嗎？
12:39
If the only reason is because that's what I paid or that's what the experts said,
如果唯一的原因是因為那是我當初買進的價格，或是那是專家說的，
12:42
you're likely falling into the trap.
你很可能就掉入陷阱了。
12:45
Instead, zoom out and reassess.
相反地，退一步重新評估。
12:49
Ask, "What's the business worth today?" or "What does the upto-date research say?"
問問看：「這家企業今天的價值是多少？」或是「最新的研究怎麼說？」
12:52
Good investors don't anchor to the past.
好的投資人不會錨定在過去。
12:54
They adapt to the present.
他們會適應現在。
12:57
Your money doesn't care about your memories.
你的錢不在乎你的回憶。
13:01
It only cares about your next move.
它只在乎你的下一步。
13:03
These are just five of many cognitive traps that investors fall into.
這些只是投資人會掉入的眾多認知陷阱中的五個。
13:07
And while we can't completely erase them, you know, here's the good news.
雖然我們無法完全消除它們，但有個好消息是：
13:11
Awareness is the first and most powerful step towards overcoming them.
覺察是克服它們的第一步，也是最強而有力的一步。
13:15
Because once you understand why you're feeling anxious, greedy, or hesitant, you're far more
因為一旦你了解自己為什麼會感到焦慮、貪婪或猶豫，
13:20
likely to pause before acting on those feelings.
你在基於這些感覺採取行動前，就更有機會先暫停一下。
13:23
you start to create space between the emotion and the decision.
你開始在情緒與決策之間創造出空間。
13:26
And in investing, that space is where better choices get made.
在投資中，正是這個空間讓你做出更好的選擇。
13:31
Warren Buffett is not the world's best investor because he's 10 times as smart as us.
華倫·巴菲特之所以成為世界上最棒的投資人，並不是因為他比我們聰明十倍。
13:37
It's predominantly because he's very aware of these biases and is able to detach from
主要原因是他非常清楚這些偏誤，並能在做決策前
13:41
the emotion before making his decisions.
擺脫情緒的影響。
13:44
Think of this knowledge as part of your investing toolkit.
將這份知識視為你投資工具箱的一部分。
13:48
It doesn't guarantee success, but it builds emotional resilience.
它不能保證成功，但能建立情緒上的韌性。
13:52
And over the long run, that resilience can be just as important as choosing the right ETF or the right
長期來看，這種韌性可能和選對 ETF 或
13:58
stock.
選對股票一樣重要。
13:58
And remember, each investor is different.
記住，每位投資者都不同。
14:01
The biases that affect you most may be different from someone else.
對你影響最大的偏誤可能和別人不同。
14:04
So, the goal isn't perfection.
所以，目標不是追求完美。
14:08
It's just self-awareness because the better you know yourself, the better you'll handle
而是自我覺察，因為你越了解自己，就越能從容應對
14:11
whatever the market throws your way.
市場的各種挑戰。
