So what I want to do today
is essentially tell you what macro is about,
macroeconomics is about, and also
the rules of the game.
所以我今天想做的是基本上告訴你們宏觀是什麼，
00:44
So what a difference
a single letter makes.
僅僅一個字母的差異
00:48
Many of you must
have taken 1401.
許多同學可能已經修過1401。
00:50
In fact, some of you may
be taking it concurrently, a lecture right before mine.
實際上，有些同學可能正在同時修讀，
00:57
And that's Microeconomics, 1401.
那是微觀經濟學，1401。
01:00
This is macroeconomics.
這是宏觀經濟學。
01:01
And it doesn't take
a lot of imagination to realize that this
course is about big things.
不難想像這門課程是關於大事的。
01:07
We don't look at small things.
我們不研究小事情。
01:08
That's what micro is about.
這是微觀的領域。
01:10
Micro looks at a household,
at a firm, at an industry.
微觀研究家庭、企業、產業。
01:15
In macro we don't do that.
在宏觀經濟學中，我們不這樣做。
01:17
We look at the whole economy.
我們觀察整個經濟體。
01:19
We think about the US.
我們思考美國的情況。
01:20
We think about China.
我們思考中國的情況。
01:22
We don't think about
an individual price.
我們不思考個別商品的價格。
01:24
We think about inflation, so the
rate of change of all prices.
我們思考通貨膨脹，也就是所有價格變動的幅度。
01:28
We don't think about
whether a particular worker is employed or unemployed.
我們不思考某位特定勞工是就業還是失業。
01:31
We think of whether the
rate of unemployment is very high or low,
things of that kind.
我們思考失業率是很高還是很低，以及類似的狀況。
01:36
When we look at
two countries, we look at the exchange rate, which
is the relative price of two currencies, not to
individual goods in two
當我們比較兩個國家時，我們會觀察匯率，也就是兩種貨幣的相對價格，而不是
01:43
different countries, but the
whole currency and so on.
而是整體貨幣以及相關因素。
01:45
So that's what macro is about.
所以這就是宏觀經濟學的重點。
01:48
Now, you could think that
macro is nothing else than the sum of lots of micros.
你可能會認為宏觀經濟學不過是許多微觀經濟學的總和。
01:53
After all, that's what
an economy is made of.
畢竟，經濟體就是由這些構成的。
01:55
A population, a
whole population is made of lots of
individuals that can be analyzed with
the tools of 1401
一個族群，整個族群是由許多個體組成的，而這些個體可以用1401的工具來分析，
02:01
and the sequence
that follows 1401.
以及1401之後的系列課程。
02:05
But that doesn't work.
但那並行不通。
02:06
And there are parallels in
physics about this and so on.
這在物理學上也有類似的現象。
02:09
The way you want to
study sort of big bodies is different from
the way you want to understand the movements
of small elements.
研究大型物體的方式，與理解微小元素運動的方式不同。
02:16
And that's the case in macro.
宏觀經濟學也是如此。
02:18
In macro there's a
big line of research that has to do with the micro
foundations of macro economics.
在宏觀經濟學中，有一大方向的研究與宏觀經濟學的微觀基礎有關。
02:26
But even in that case, which
is very close to micro, most of the action ended up
happening in the non-micro part, in the interactions,
in the equilibrium
I'd like you to be able to
read that kind of document very clearly.
我希望你們能夠非常清楚地閱讀這類文件。
04:24
I would like you to be able to
read something in say, the Wall Street Journal and
read even critically, sometimes disagreeing
with what is in there--
我希望你們能夠閱讀例如《華爾街日報》上的內容，甚至批判性地閱讀，有時候可能不同意其中的觀點——
04:31
Financial Times, The Economist.
《金融時報》、《經濟學人》。
04:33
That's a goal of this course.
這就是本課程的目標。
04:34
It's not a lot more than that.
課程目標並不多於此。
04:36
It's just that.
僅此而已。
04:37
If you do a summer
internship in Wall Street and you work in a macro
hedge fund or whatever, this is going to be a
good course for that.
如果你們在華爾街實習，並在一個宏觀對沖基金或其他地方工作，這門課程會對你們很有幫助。
04:44
I mean, this is what
traders really know.
我的意思是，這正是交易者真正了解的。
04:46
They don't know a
lot more than that.
他們了解的並不多於此。
04:47
Many traders should know that.
許多交易者應該了解這些。
04:48
They don't.
但他們不了解。
04:49
But this does a
level of knowledge.
但本課程會提供這個層級的知識。
04:52
If it gets to be very
complicated, I'm failing.
如果它變得非常複雜，那就是我失敗了。
04:55
That's not what I
want to do here.
這不是我想要在這裡做的事情。
04:59
The typical lecture-- again,
this is not a lecture.
一般的演講方式——再次強調，這並不是演講。
05:02
The first lecture
will be on Wednesday.
第一堂演講將在星期三舉行。
05:04
The typical lecture--
and not in the first part of the course because
you're not going to have the tools, the
definitions and so on to do it.
一般的演講方式——而且不會在課程的初期進行，因為你們還沒有工具、定義等等來理解它。
05:11
What I want to do is spend
5 to 10 minutes early on.
我想做的是在課程初期花費5到10分鐘。
05:17
Again, the first
part of the course, we can do that because you don't
have the knowledge to do that.
再次說明，在課程的初期，我們可以這樣做，因為你們還沒有足夠的知識。
05:22
But as you start
building tools, I want to be able to talk about
current events, something that is happening out there
that I find interesting
但隨著你們開始建立工具，我想能夠討論時事，也就是發生在外面，我認為有趣的事情。
05:31
or something I received
that morning, the morning of the lecture, which
I find interesting.
或者是我早上收到的，在演講當天早上覺得有趣的事情。
05:38
And if I think you already have
the tools to begin to understand it, I'm going to be repetitive.
如果我認為你們已經具備開始理解它的工具，我會重複說明。
05:43
I'm going to come back
two, three, four times to the same topic.
我會針對同一個主題反覆討論兩、三次、四次。
05:46
Hopefully you'll be more
advanced in your knowledge in the later stages
and you'll be able to understand
it more and more.
希望在課程後期的階段，你們的知識會更進一步，並且能夠越來越深入地理解它。
05:53
The typical lecture will
have 5 to 10 minutes in which we'll talk about
some facts, something that is going on.
一般的演講會花費5到10分鐘討論一些事實，也就是正在發生的事情。
05:59
For example, a
picture like this.
例如，像這樣一張圖片。
06:01
This I received this morning.
這是我今天早上收到的。
06:02
I think this came from Goldman,
I think, Goldman Sachs.
我想這是高盛發布的，高盛證券。
06:05
Yes.
是的。
06:06
And what you have in
that picture-- again, don't worry about
details today-- is you have two lines.
而這張圖片顯示的——再次強調，今天不必擔心細節——是兩條線。
06:13
One of them is a measure of
wages, wage growth, compensation to workers.
其中一條是衡量工資、工資增長、勞工薪酬的指標。
06:21
And another one is a
measure of inflation.
另一條是衡量通貨膨脹的指標。
06:24
Again, all those
definitions will come in the next
lecture on inflation.
再次說明，所有這些定義將在下一堂關於通貨膨脹的演講中說明。
06:28
So it's the rate at which-- you must have heard
about inflation.
所以這指的是利率，你們一定聽過通貨膨脹。
06:31
It's something,
prices are rising.
簡單來說，就是物價正在上漲。
06:33
And what that picture shows
you is that these two series are very highly correlated.
而這張圖顯示的是，這兩組數據高度相關。
06:39
So when wage growth is high,
inflation tends to be high.
所以當薪資增長很高時，通貨膨脹往往也很高。
06:44
And that's a big
issue on these days.
這在當今是一個很大的問題。
06:45
There's a lot of concern
about this stuff.
大家對此非常擔憂。
06:50
So let me try to explain
a little bit what is a concern on these days.
所以讓我試著解釋一下，當今讓人擔憂的地方。
06:54
Again, if you don't understand
anything, doesn't matter.
如果你們現在聽不懂任何東西，沒關係。
06:58
If you don't
understand anything I'm saying right now in the last
lecture, then it matters.
如果你們聽不懂我現在說的，或者上一堂課的內容，那就有關係了。
07:02
But now it doesn't matter.
但現在沒關係。
07:04
I'm just trying to give you a
flavor of the kind of things we'll be talking about.
我只是想讓你們對我們接下來要討論的事情有個概念。
07:08
That picture there,
again, a variable that will define in the
next lecture, not now, shows you the unemployment rate.
這裡的這張圖，再次強調，我們會在下一堂課定義這個變數，現在不用管它，顯示的是失業率。
07:14
You don't need any
specific definition to know that to feel,
at least get a sense, that, well, if unemployment is
high, workers aren't very happy.
你不需要任何具體的定義，就能知道，至少能感覺到，嗯，如果失業率很高，工人就不會很高興。
07:23
It's not a good thing to
have lots of unemployment.
高失業率不是一件好事。
07:25
And what that series
shows you the shaded areas are recessions in the US.
這組數據顯示，陰影區域代表美國的經濟衰退期。
07:30
What that series shows you is
that typically in recessions, unemployment goes up.
這組數據顯示，通常在經濟衰退期，失業率會上升。
07:34
So that's one of the features.
這就是其中一個特徵。
07:36
One of the main
features of a recession is that unemployment is high.
經濟衰退的主要特徵之一就是失業率很高。
07:40
This episode here, it's
called the Great Recession-- as a parallel for
the Great Depression.
這一波，被稱為「大衰退」，是為了與「大蕭條」相提並論。
07:47
The US had the Great
Depression in the '30s.
美國在30年代經歷了「大蕭條」。
07:49
This is the Great
Recession, the biggest sort of recession outside of the
Great Depression in the US.
這就是大衰退，是美國大蕭條以外規模最大的衰退。
07:55
And it's also known as the
Global Financial Crisis because this was a recession
all around the world.
它也被稱為全球金融危機，因為這是一場席捲全球的衰退。
08:01
And what you can see is that
unemployment went very high.
你可以看到失業率非常高。
08:04
That's a very feature,
a telltale sign of a big recession.
這是一個非常明顯的，大型衰退的警訊。
08:09
And then it took a long time.
然後，復甦花了很長的時間。
08:10
This was in recovering.
這段時間處於復甦階段。
08:13
COVID was a massive
shock to the labor market So not surprisingly,
unemployment, the unemployment rate spike there.
COVID對勞動力市場造成了巨大的衝擊，因此毫不意外地，失業率大幅攀升。
08:19
But then it also
recover, a lot faster than it recovered from that.
但隨後它也迅速復甦，比從那次衰退中復甦的速度快得多。
08:23
And today we have
unemployment rates that are at historically low levels.
現在我們的失業率處於歷史低點。
08:28
And that's a big issue.
這是一個大問題。
08:30
The rate of
unemployment in the US is at historically low levels-- way below what is normal.
美國的失業率處於歷史低點——遠低於正常水準。
08:38
Forget recessions, obviously
way below what is it happens in recessions, but
even way below what is normal, what happens during
normal times.
拋開衰退不說，這遠低於衰退時的水平，甚至低於正常情況下的水平。
08:49
Closely related to
that is wage growth.
與此密切相關的是工資增長。
08:53
I have just one measure of wages
there, is a series of wage that is particularly-- what I'm about to say
is particularly sharp,
我只提供一項工資衡量指標，而且我接下來要說的，這個系列數據尤其顯著。
09:03
which is the wages of in the
accommodation and food service sectors.
也就是住宿和餐飲服務業的工資。
09:08
So wages have been rising very
steadily and very fast recently everywhere,
particularly in sectors like this, where we
have some problems which
因此，工資一直在穩定且快速地上漲，尤其是在這些行業，我們面臨一些問題，
09:16
we call labor supply.
我們稱之為勞動力供應問題。
09:17
But I'll get back to that.
但我稍後會再談到這一點。
09:19
So those are two facts.
這些是兩項事實。
09:20
We have unemployment
at extremely low levels and we have wage growth
at a very fast pace.
失業率處於極低水平，而且工資增長速度非常快。
09:27
Now, that sounds wonderful, no?
聽起來很棒，不是嗎？
09:29
I mean, what else do you want,
an economy which is few people unemployed and wages
are growing a lot.
我指的是，你還想要什麼，一個失業人數很少、工資卻大幅增長的經濟體？
09:37
I mean, if this was micro,
this would be fantastic.
我指的是，如果這只是微觀層面，那將是太棒了。
09:40
OK, look the guy is employed
and he's getting a high wage.
好，看看這個人有工作，而且薪水很高。
09:43
This is great.
這太好了。
09:45
Well, not so fast for macro.
好吧，宏觀層面可不能這麼樂觀。
09:48
Not so fast because I already
showed you in the first picture that I showed you,
[INAUDIBLE] there is a connection between
wage growth and inflation.
不要急著樂觀，因為我已經在第一張圖片裡向你展示過，工資增長和通貨膨脹之間存在關聯。
09:56
And that's what
we're experiencing.
而這正是我們正在經歷的。
09:58
The normal level of inflation
for an economy like the US is around 2%.
對於像美國這樣的經濟體，正常的通貨膨脹率大約是2%。
10:02
That's normal.
這很正常。
10:03
That's what central banks
target in an economy like the US in the Euro area.
這也是像美國和歐元區這樣的經濟體中，各國央行設定的目標。
10:08
Japan has been dreaming with 2%,
but hasn't been able for decades to get it.
日本一直夢想著2%，但數十年來都無法實現。
10:12
Although now they are.
雖然現在他們做到了。
10:15
But they weren't, for a couple
of decades, to get to 2%.
但在過去的幾十年裡，他們一直未能達到2%。
10:17
But that's about-- and we will
discuss later in the course why 2% is about right for
economies of the size of the US and so on.
但總體來說——我們稍後會在課程中討論為什麼2%對於美國等規模的經濟體來說是合適的。
10:26
Obviously in recessions,
these things can go low.
顯然，在經濟衰退時期，這些數值可能會降到較低水平。
10:29
And that's why in
the COVID recessions inflation went to
zero, essentially.
因此，在新冠疫情的經濟衰退中，通貨膨脹實際上降至零。
10:35
But then it began to pick up.
但隨後它又開始回升。
10:36
And it's now at levels, which
are unheard of in the US since the '80s.
而目前通膨水準已達到自80年代以來美國前所未見的程度。
10:42
So depending on the particular
measure you use of inflation, it's around 6.5% to 8%.
因此，取決於您使用的具體通膨指標，目前大約在6.5%到8%左右。
10:48
That's a level of
inflation we have, which is way, way above
what is considered a normal or reasonable
target for the central banks
這是一個我們所處的通貨膨脹水平，遠遠高於央行認為的正常或合理目標。
10:57
for inflation.
針對通貨膨脹。
10:58
So that's a problem.
這是一個問題。
10:59
We have had some good news
recently in that inflation clearly peaked already-- again, definition of inflation,
formal definition of inflation
近期我們得到了一些好消息，那就是通貨膨脹已經明顯見頂——再次說明，通貨膨脹的定義，
11:07
happens in the next lecture.
通貨膨脹的正式定義
11:09
But it already peaked.
將在下一堂課講述。
11:11
And it's declining.
但它已經見頂。
11:11
But it's still a very,
very high levels.
而且正在下降。
11:14
And that's a problem.
但它仍然處於非常、非常高的水平。
11:15
That's a big
macroeconomic problem.
這也是一個問題。
11:16
And one of the things we want
to understand in this course is, well, what to do about it.
這是一個重大的宏觀經濟問題。
11:21
How do you deal with that?
我們在本課程中想要了解的一件事是，我們應該怎麼辦。
11:22
What do central banks need to
do in order to deal with that?
你該如何應對？
11:26
Now, I've been
talking about the US.
央行需要做些什麼來應對這個問題？
11:29
But this is not
specific to the US.
現在，我一直在談論美國。
11:33
This episode this
recovery from COVID is incredibly common across
different regions of the world.
但這並非
11:41
I mean, you see it everywhere
with a few exceptions.
僅限於美國。
11:43
And I'm going to talk about one
major exception in a minute.
這次疫情後的復甦在世界不同地區都非常普遍。
11:47
But it's widespread.
我的意思是，除了少數例外，你幾乎隨處可見。
11:49
It's a widespread phenomenon
that we had high unemployment.
我稍後會談論一個主要的例外情況。
11:52
Then we had sort of very high-- well, I haven't told
you that part yet.
然後我們經歷了一段失業率非常高的時期——好吧，我還沒告訴您那一部分。
11:58
But then we had sort
of low inflation.
但接著我們又出現了相對較低的通膨。
12:00
Then inflation
picked up enormously.
然後通膨大幅攀升。
12:02
And now we're all worried
about these very high levels of inflation.
現在我們都擔心這些非常高的通膨水準。
12:05
In fact, if you look
at what happened between the Great Recession
and the COVID recession, it was pretty normal
to have 70% to 80%
事實上，如果您觀察大衰退和新冠疫情衰退之間的狀況，全球經濟體有70%到80%
12:15
of the economies in the
world having inflation levels at or below 2%.
的通膨水準都在2%或以下。
12:20
So that's a norm.
這是一種常態。
12:21
If they throw you
into a country, they drop you into a country,
the normal thing would be well, it's about 2%.
如果把您丟到一個國家，讓您降落在一個國家，那麼正常的狀況就是，嗯，大約是2%。
12:27
That's a level of inflation.
這就是一個通膨水準。
12:28
Obviously, if I dropped
you in Argentina, you're going to find a much
bigger number, you know, 10,000%.
顯然，如果我把您丟到阿根廷，您會發現一個更大的數字，你知道，1萬%。
12:34
But the bulk of the countries
were around 2% or so.
但大部分國家都落在 2% 左右。
12:39
Today you don't find any
country with inflation below 2%.
現在你找不到任何一個通貨膨脹率低於 2% 的國家。
12:44
Not even Japan, for years
we're in deflation and trying to get sort of above zero.
即使是日本，多年來一直處於通貨緊縮，並試圖讓通膨率略高於零。
12:50
That's all they wanted.
這就是他們想要的。
12:52
Not even in Japan you have
inflation below 2% today.
甚至在日本，現在的通貨膨脹率也未低於 2%。
12:55
So this thing I showed you.
所以我向你展示的這個情況。
12:57
And for more or less
the same reasons, it's happening everywhere.
由於或多或少相同的原因，這件事正在世界各地發生。
13:02
Not exactly the same factors.
並非完全相同的因素。
13:04
It's the same
episode, for example, with differences depending on
the structure of the economy or in additional shocks.
這是同樣的事件，例如，根據經濟結構或額外衝擊的不同而有所差異。
13:13
In Europe, for example they
had very high inflation.
在歐洲，例如，他們經歷了非常高的通貨膨脹。
13:17
But the problem is not-- the origin of the problem,
the bulk of the problem is the same as in the US.
但問題不在於——問題的根源，大部分問題與美國相同。
13:25
But at the margin
they are different.
但在細微之處，它們有所不同。
13:27
In Europe, the big
driver of inflation, the big recent
driver of inflation, is unlike the US, which is
aggregate demand, a concept
在歐洲，推動通貨膨脹的主要因素，最近推動通貨膨脹的主要因素，與美國不同，美國是總需求，這是一個概念
13:35
you'll understand later.
你稍後會理解。
13:36
It's essentially
the war in Ukraine.
本質上是烏克蘭戰爭。
13:38
That has increased the price of
energy and the price of energy has led to lots of inflation.
這主要是因為烏克蘭戰爭，而能源價格的上升又導致了大量的通貨膨脹。
13:43
So there are different reasons.
所以有很多不同的原因。
13:44
But all of them are sort
of different reasons that you add on top of what
is a common story, which is that we overheated coming
out of the COVID episode
但這些原因都可以被視為加在一個共同故事之上的不同因素，而這個共同故事就是，疫情過後我們經濟過熱。
13:55
and now we're
struggling with that.
而現在我們正努力應對這種情況。
14:00
Now, the main tool--
and we're going to talk a lot about
in this course-- the main tool that central banks
have to deal with inflation
現在，主要的工具——而我們在本課程中會花很多時間討論它——就是中央銀行應對通貨膨脹的主要工具。
14:06
is the interest rate.
也就是利率。
14:08
So for reasons you'll
understand later, although you may have intuition
about some of those now, obviously when the central
bank lowers the interest rates,
因此，稍後你們會理解其中的原因，儘管現在你們可能對其中一些原因已經有所直覺。
14:18
then that helps the
economy to expand.
那麼這就幫助經濟擴張。
14:22
And when it increases interest
rate, then it does the opposite.
而當它提高利率時，就會產生相反的效果。
14:25
Rising Interest rate makes
mortgages more expensive, make everything more expensive
so people tend to consume less.
利率上升會使房貸更昂貴，使所有東西都更昂貴，因此人們往往會減少消費。
14:30
Firms tend to invest
less and so on because it's more expensive
to invest, to borrow, to do something.
公司也會減少投資，以此類推，因為投資、借貸和做任何事情的成本都更高。
14:36
And there you see it.
你們可以看到。
14:40
I mean, this was the level of
the interest rate in the US before COVID.
我的意思是，這是疫情前美國的利率水平。
14:45
When COVID came, boom.
疫情來了，砰！
14:46
They brought it
all the way down.
他們把它降到了最低點。
14:47
It happens that you can
not bring the interest rate a lot lower than zero.
碰巧的是，你沒辦法把利率降到零以下太多。
14:51
That's the reason it
stayed close to zero.
這就是它維持在接近零的原因。
14:53
We're going to talk
about that later on.
我們稍後會討論這個問題。
14:55
But then eventually
they realized that we're behind the curve.
但後來他們終於意識到我們落後於形勢。
14:58
Inflation had picked up a
lot and the central banks were behind the curve.
通膨已經大幅攀升，而且各國央行都落後於形勢。
15:02
So they began to hike
rates in a hurry.
因此他們開始急遽升息。
15:05
And that's what we have been
experiencing for the last year or so, very fast increase
in the interest rate.
這就是我們過去一年多經歷的情況，利率快速上升。
15:14
Now, this is, of course,
about macroeconomics.
現在，這當然是關於宏觀經濟學的。
15:16
But I happen to do
a lot of research between macro and finance.
但我恰好做很多宏觀經濟學與金融學之間的相關研究。
15:19
So I'm going to put a little bit
more of a component of finance into-- I think I'm going
to do most of that
所以我會加入更多金融學的成分——我想我大部分的內容
15:26
in the last third of the course.
會在課程的最後三分之一部分講述。
15:28
But monetary policy has lots
of implications for finance, for equity, values,
for the stock market, and stuff like that.
但貨幣政策對金融、股權價值、股市等等都有很多影響。
15:38
So what you see here, this
line here, is the SPX 500.
所以你這裡看到的這條線，就是標普500指數。
15:46
It's the main index of
equity in the US of shares.
它是美國股市的主要指標。
15:51
There are several indices-- NASDAQ, S&P, Dow, and so on.
有幾個指數——那斯達克、標準普爾、道瓊等等。
15:55
This is the main index,
the most comprehensive, the one that takes
the largest companies, and so on and so forth.
這主要是衡量指數，最全面、涵蓋規模最大公司的指標，諸如此類。
16:03
And what you can see
what happens here is that when COVID happened,
the surprise that we had, really a pandemia, then
the stock market crash,
您可以看到，當COVID疫情發生時，我們經歷了一場真正的全球大流行，隨之而來的是股市崩盤。
16:13
declined like 30% or something
like that at the time.
當時下跌了約30%左右。
16:16
That's interesting facets.
這是一個有趣的面向。
16:17
I mean, that's one
characteristic of equity that I like a lot.
我的意思是，這是我非常喜歡權益（股票）的一個特點。
16:23
Other risky assets, as well, but
they anticipate what happens.
其他風險資產也是如此，但它們會預期會發生什麼。
16:28
What happened there
is the stock market, the shareholders, realized
that something big was-- negative and big-- was
happening in front of us.
當時發生的情況是，股市和股東意識到，一件大事——而且是壞事——正在我們面前發生。
16:36
So it was time to sell.
所以是時候賣出了。
16:38
And so the equity
market collapsed.
因此，股市崩潰了。
16:40
What happens next is
even more interesting for a macro economist,
which is this big boom here.
接下來發生的事情，對宏觀經濟學家來說，就更為有趣了，那就是這裡的大幅上漲。
16:47
There's an enormous boom.
這裡出現了巨大的繁榮。
16:48
The economy here still
was at levels of activity below what it had before COVID.
但當時的經濟活動水平仍然低於COVID疫情前的水平。
16:53
But the stock market, the
value in the stock market had way exceeded the level
we had before the pandemic.
然而，股市的價值已經遠遠超過了疫情前的水平。
17:01
And the main driver of that,
I've shown that in some papers, the main driver of that is not-- I mean people tell lots
of stories of Amazon
我在一些論文中已經證明，其主要驅動因素並非…我的意思是，人們會講述很多關於亞馬遜的故事。
17:10
and so on, Tesla,
bla, blah, blah.
諸如特斯拉等等，一堆一堆的。
17:12
If you look at the aggregate,
the main reason for that rise was monetary policy.
如果您觀察總體情況，
17:16
You can explain all that
increase in the equity value in the US of the index--
not the individual shares, of the index--
您可以透過利率的影響，
17:24
by the effect of interest rates.
這一切都是受到利率影響所致。
17:26
So monetary policy
plays a big role.
因此，貨幣政策
17:29
If you care about
finance, well, it plays a huge role in
the value of assets.
如果您關心
17:33
When monetary policy
is very loose, that tends to increase
the value of assets.
當貨幣政策非常寬鬆時，
17:37
And that's one of the
mechanisms the central banks use to expand aggregate
demand when they want to expand aggregate demand.
他們希望人們感覺——
17:43
They want people to feel--
you are in a recession, you want people to feel richer
so they spend more and so on and so forth.
這裡發生了什麼？
17:50
What happened here?
這一下跌，也可以完全用利率上升來解釋。
17:51
This decline, you can
also explain it fully with the hike in interest rate.
請記住，我向您展示過，
17:55
Remember, I showed you that
the interest rate began to rise very rapidly here.
事實上，去年美國股市以及全球大多數主要股市，
17:59
Well, last year the
equity market in the US and most major equity
markets around the world declined by 20% or more.
您可以簡單地透過提高利率，
18:07
You can explain all
that decline simply by increasing the interest rate.
因此，我們需要了解的另一個問題是，
18:11
So that's another thing
we need to understand is why is it that the interest--
why is the interest rate matter so much for
something like equity?
那麼，當價值資產時，
18:17
So when a value assets,
and when I see what is the effect of
the interest rate, and then we're going
to think about, well,
那麼，為什麼中央銀行會擔心
18:23
why would the central bank worry
or not worry about these things, and so on and so forth.
那麼，為什麼中央銀行會擔心或不擔心這些事情呢，以此類推。
18:27
But the truth is that financial
markets and the central banks interact all the time.
但事實是，金融市場和中央銀行一直都在互動。
18:33
I mean, if you are into
Wall Street type thing, you are going to be watching
every day, every time that the monetary minutes.
也就是說，如果你從事華爾街相關的工作，你就會每天關注貨幣政策會議記錄。
18:42
The minutes of the central
banks are released, you're going to be watching
because it has a big implication for the value of your equity.
中央銀行的會議記錄一經發布，你就會密切關注，因為這對你的權益價值有重大影響。
18:51
Actually, something very
interesting of this nature happened last week.
事實上，上週就發生了一件非常有趣的事情。
18:54
On Friday, last
Friday, there was a release of payroll numbers.
上週五，公布了就業人數數據。
19:02
So it's an employment
index, employment numbers.
所以這是一個就業指數，就業數字。
19:06
And people expected the
payroll to increase, so to add nonfarm payroll-- we'll talk about
these things later--
人們預期就業人數會增加，也就是增加非農就業人數——我們稍後會談到這些。
19:17
by about 190,000 workers.
大約增加了19萬個工作。
19:21
At 8:30-- well and this,
you're seeing here, is the behavior of the same
index I showed you before, but the futures, so things you
can trade before the market
Everyone is waiting the release
of this news at 8:30 AM.
每個人都在等待上午8:30公布這個消息。
19:44
At 8:30 AM, great news
for the labor market.
上午8:30，勞動市場的好消息。
19:51
The actual change in the
payroll was not 190k.
實際的就業人數變化並非19萬。
19:55
It was over a 500,000k.
實際上超過了50萬。
19:58
So enormous addition
of jobs to the economy.
因此，經濟體新增了大量的就業機會。
20:02
And look what happens
to the equity market.
現在看看股市會發生什麼。
20:04
Boom.
砰。
20:05
It imploded immediately.
它立刻崩盤了。
20:07
So this is wonderful news now
for the economy-- lots of jobs.
因此，這現在是經濟的好消息——有很多工作。
20:10
The equity market imploded
as a result of that.
股市正因為此而崩盤。
20:14
Why do you think that happened?
你認為為什麼會發生這種情況？
20:18
I've already given
you a little bit of the ingredients
for why, for an answer in the previous slides?
我已經在之前的投影片中給出了一些原因，作為答案。
20:26
The reason I'm showing you
this is because in 15 minutes, it summarizes all that I was
talking about in the previous 30 minutes.
我向你展示這個的原因是，在接下來的15分鐘裡，它將總結我之前30分鐘所說的一切。
20:36
Why do you think that happened?
你認為為什麼會發生這種情況？
20:38
This is wonderful news.
這真是個好消息。
20:40
Why the stock market should
crash like 2% from top to bottom as a result of that?
為什麼股市應該因此從高點下跌2%呢？
20:49
AUDIENCE: There's
a lot more labor because that gives a lot
more supply of that thing, and thus, it decreases price
because of high supply.
聽眾：因為這樣會增加勞動力，進而增加該商品的供應量，由於供應量大，價格就會下降。
21:02
RICARDO J.
Ricardo J.
21:02
CABALLERO: No, but-- OK, that's an
interesting explanation.
Caballero: 不，但… 好的，這是一個有趣的解釋。
21:09
It's not the one I have in mind.
這並不是我心裡的答案。
21:12
The explanation says, look, that
means firms hire lots of people.
真正的解釋是，這意味著企業會大量招聘。
21:16
So the price, that
means they're going to be lots of supply of whatever
goods they're producing.
因此，價格會下降，也就是說，他們生產的商品供應量會非常大。
21:21
The price of those goods
is going to decline.
這些商品的價格將會下跌。
21:22
And that's going to
be bad for profits.
這將不利於利潤。
21:24
That's a story you had in mind.
這就是你心裡的答案。
21:27
Maybe there's some of that.
也許有那麼一點。
21:29
But I'm willing to bet that
it's not the main thing.
但我敢打賭這並不是主要原因。
21:35
So the only clue I give
you is that I already talk about these things
five minutes ago.
我給你的唯一線索是，我五分鐘前就已經談論過這些事情了。
21:44
AUDIENCE: Employment
is very closely related to inflation rates.
聽眾：就業與通貨膨脹率密切相關。
21:49
[INAUDIBLE] up to 0.81.
[聽不清楚] 上漲至0.81。
21:51
So this could be a
result of expectations of continued high
inflation rates.
因此，這可能是因為預期持續的高通膨率所導致的結果。
21:54
RICARDO J.
瑞卡多·J.
21:55
CABALLERO:
OK, you're very close.
瑞卡多·J.：
21:56
One step more.
再多一步。
21:57
Yes.
是的。
21:59
That means that-- AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] RICARDO J.
這表示——聽眾：[聽不清楚] 瑞卡多·J.
22:03
CABALLERO:
OK, there you are.
瑞卡多·J.：
22:05
So what happens?
那麼會發生什麼？
22:07
The shareholders wouldn't
have done anything if they thought that
the Fed would not be able to see this data.
如果股東認為聯準會無法看到這些數據，他們就不會採取任何行動。
22:14
But they know that the
Fed also sees this data and say, whoa,
these guys are going to be worried because
the economy is
但他們知道聯準會也會看到這些數據，並說，哇，這些人會很擔心，因為經濟
22:20
going to keep overheating.
將會持續過熱。
22:21
They're going to
have to hike interest rates even more in order
to cool down this economy.
他們將不得不進一步提高利率，以冷卻這場經濟。
22:26
I already showed you that what
happens in the labor market is very connected to what
happens with inflation.
我已經向你展示過，勞動力市場的變化與通膨的變化息息相關。
22:31
The central bank knows that.
央行知道這一點。
22:33
And now we get this big surprise
that means they're not really being able to-- they're
not being successful at really slowing down one of
the main drivers of inflation.
現在我們得到了一個巨大的驚喜，這意味著他們並不能真正——他們沒有成功地減緩通膨的主要驅動因素之一。
22:42
And so financial markets
are very forward looking.
因此，金融市場具有高度的前瞻性。
22:45
They say, whoa, this is coming.
他們說，哇，這要來了。
22:46
This only means that
financial markets were betting that
the Fed was going to begin to cut interest rates
in four months more or so.
這僅僅意味著金融市場押注聯準會將在四個月左右的時間開始降息。
22:57
And if you look at what
the forwards did there, what the market-- you can extract what
the market thinks.
如果你看看遠期市場的表現，看看市場的反應，你就能推斷出市場的看法。
23:03
Right after this, it got
immediately pushed out to the end of the year.
在這之後，預期立即延後到年底。
23:08
So it's precise.
因此，非常精確。
23:09
It's the anticipation
that the central bank will have to do something.
關鍵在於預期央行必須採取行動。
23:12
And so I thought it
was very interesting for that point of view.
因此，我認為從這個角度來看，這非常有趣。
23:19
Recessions-- well, look.
衰退──好吧，請看。
23:21
And these are all
very good news.
這些都是非常好的消息。
23:23
But everyone knows that the Fed
needs to cool off the economy.
但大家都知道聯準會需要讓經濟降溫。
23:28
So despite the fact that
we're getting good news now, people expect, the
majority of people expect a recession in
the US for this year.
因此，儘管我們現在得到的好消息，但大多數人預期今年美國會出現衰退。
23:38
I'm not going to explain
this bar graph here.
我不打算在這裡解釋這個長條圖。
23:40
But these are forecasts.
但這些是預測。
23:41
These are professional
forecasters.
這些是專業預測者。
23:43
And more than half of them-- so the median of them thinks
that there is a 65% probability that there is a recession
in the US this year.
而且其中超過一半的人，也就是這些預測者的中位數認為，
23:55
And we're going to
talk a lot about this and probably we're going to
be getting news about this while we're taking the course.
我們接下來會花很多時間討論這個問題，而且我們很可能在課程進行期間收到相關新聞。
24:01
So this is going to be
a picture that we're going to discuss extensively.
所以這將會是一個我們深入探討的圖景。
24:06
And the reason for the
recession is nothing else than-- The reason you ask this
forecast, why do you think we may have a recession?
衰退的原因，無非是… 你問這個預測，為什麼你認為我們可能會出現衰退？
24:14
Well, because the Fed is
trying to fight inflation.
嗯，因為聯準會正在試圖對抗通貨膨脹。
24:17
It's going to keep
hiking interest rates.
它們會持續升息。
24:19
And at some point, it
may break something.
而在某個時刻，這可能會導致某些事情出錯。
24:23
And that's the reason.
這就是原因。
24:25
But all these
things you are going to be able to understand
very clearly through models.
但透過模型，你們將能夠非常清楚地理解所有這些事情。
24:30
The last thing I want to
say before telling you a little bit the
rules of the game is that I said before that the
story I told you about the US
在告訴你們一些遊戲規則之前，我最後想說的是，我之前告訴你們關於美國
24:40
is more or less what is
happening all around.
的故事，或多或少正在世界各地發生。
24:42
I was in Chile a month ago.
我上個月在智利。
24:46
I'm Chilean.
我是智利人。
24:47
And they have the same story.
他們也面臨同樣的狀況。
24:49
They start hiking interest rates
a little earlier because they had more inflation than the US.
他們因為通貨膨脹高於美國，所以更早開始升息。
24:53
But they're going
through the same cycle.
但他們正在經歷相同的週期。
24:57
There's one big economy,
the second largest economy in the world, that has not been
part of this, which is China.
只有一個大型經濟體，也就是世界第二大經濟體，尚未參與其中，那就是中國。
25:05
China was very aggressive
in the COVID policy, so zero COVID policy.
中國在新冠政策上非常激進，採取清零政策。
25:10
So they really slowed
down their economy.
因此，他們確實放慢了經濟速度。
25:12
That's a consequence.
這是一個後果。
25:13
They didn't want to do that.
他們當時不想這麼做。
25:14
But as a result of a
very strict COVID policy, they essentially shut down
big parts of the economy for a long time.
但由於一項非常嚴格的新冠政策，他們基本上長時間關閉了經濟的大部分地區。
25:21
That, by the way, had big
impact in the rest of the world, through the network
of production, the chains of production
and stuff like that.
順便說一句，這透過生產網絡、生產鏈之類的東西，對世界其他地區產生了重大影響。
25:28
That was inflationary in itself.
這本身就帶有通貨膨脹的因素。
25:30
That part is dissipating.
這部分正在消散。
25:33
But for their own economy,
for the domestic economy, that really slowed down China,
an economy that grew typically at 5 and 1/2 to 6%, a
lot higher 15 years ago.
But in any event,
it's very clear that China slowed down a lot.
但無論如何，很明顯中國的發展速度已經大幅放緩。
26:04
And that policy
recently changed.
而且這項政策最近已經改變。
26:07
The zero-COVID policy changed.
零新冠政策已經改變。
26:10
And so there is
great expectation that now there is going
to be a big boom in China because they are lagging behind.
因此，人們普遍預期中國現在將迎來一波大規模的經濟繁榮，因為他們落後了。
26:15
I mean, in the US when
COVID began to dissipate, we got a huge boost to growth.
我指的是，當新冠疫情開始消退時，美國的經濟增長得到了巨大的提振。
26:20
And that's part of the reason
we got all this inflation is because we had lots of growth
coming out of the recession that happened in COVID.
這也是我們出現所有這些通貨膨脹的原因之一，因為我們在新冠疫情造成的衰退後，經濟增長迅速。
26:27
And more or less the same
is expected in China.
預計中國的情況也大致相同。
26:30
And one of the big reasons
behind those big bounce backs is when people are desperate.
而導致這些強勁反彈的主要原因之一，是當人們感到絕望時。
26:35
They want to spend on something.
他們想花錢買些什麼。
26:36
They want to go to restaurants
and cinemas and stuff like that.
他們想去餐廳和電影院之類的地方。
26:39
And the other one is they
have the means to do it because they couldn't spend
on anything for a while.
另外一個原因是他們
26:44
And so they can travel
and stuff like that.
所以他們可以旅行
26:48
So people expect-- and this
is a very large economy that suddenly sort of wakes up.
因此人們預期——這
26:55
No, that's a big
thing for China.
不，這對中國來說
26:57
But it's also a big
thing for the world.
但這對世界來說
27:00
What happens in China
doesn't stay in China.
中國發生的事情
27:02
It's a big giant.
它是一個巨大的巨人。
27:04
So it moves.
所以它會移動。
27:05
And for some countries
it's very, very important.
對某些國家而言
27:07
And this picture
here shows you what is the impact on
different regions of the world on the growth
rate and different regions
這張圖片
27:13
of the world of an increase
by 1% in the rate of growth of China.
顯然，所有
27:22
Obviously all the
neighbors benefit a lot.
但拉丁美洲
27:25
But Latin America
benefits even more.
為什麼會這樣？
27:27
Why is that?
嗯，因為拉丁美洲
27:28
Well, because Latin
America produces lots of commodities
and China consumes lots of commodities when it's
building and stuff like that.
因此，這就是對拉丁美洲
27:36
And so that's the reason
big impact on Latin America.
所以這對世界來說
27:38
So this is a piece of good
news for the world in the sense that activity will go up.
但這是平均而言的好消息。
27:44
But it's good news on average.
但這也可能有點
27:48
But it may be too much
of a good thing, as well.
為什麼？
27:51
Why?
為什麼呢？
27:52
Because many economists
are going through what we described before.
因為許多經濟學家
27:55
They're trying to
bring down inflation.
他們正試圖
27:57
They don't want more demand.
他們不希望有更多需求。
27:58
They want less for
now because we're going to understand that
connection later on how demand connects to inflation.
他們現在希望減少需求，因為我們稍後會了解需求與通貨膨脹之間的關聯。
28:04
But you want less.
但你希望減少需求。
28:05
And now you're going to get this
impulse from China, which is going to fuel more inflation.
而現在你將迎來來自中國的衝動，這將進一步推升通貨膨脹。
28:11
It's OK for China because they
don't have an inflation problem.
對於中國來說沒問題，因為他們
28:13
But it may be a problem
for many of the countries that are trying to undo the
inflationary consequences of the previous expansion, the
expansion that followed COVID.
But this is the kind of things
we're going to be talking about.
但這就是我們今天要討論的內容。
28:30
I said the course is
not going to be mathy, but it's going to
be all about models.
我說這門課程
28:34
The next lecture is
the most boring lecture of the course I tell you
in advance because it's definitions.
下一堂課
28:39
I need to go through
the definitions.
我需要講解這些定義。
28:40
At least I get bored.
至少我會感到無聊。
28:42
But the rest, there's
always little models but it's simple models.
但其他的內容，總是有一些小模型，不過都是簡單的模型。
28:46
OK, but the models
are going to try to explain the kind of
things I discussed today.
好的，但這些模型將會試圖解釋我今天討論的這類事情。
28:51
So that's what this
course is about.
所以這就是這門課程的重點。
28:55
Ideally, if we're
successful, you're going to be able
to read something like the World Economic
Outlook, which will have
理想情況下，如果我們成功，你們就能夠閱讀像是《世界經濟展望》這類的文件，其中會包含
29:01
lots of pictures like this.
許多像這樣的圖表。
29:02
And you're going to be able to
write a little equation very simple on the side
to try to understand what is going on there, and to
catch the mistakes, as well.
而且你們能夠在旁邊寫下一個簡單的小公式，試圖理解圖表背後的意義，並且
29:10
OK, WEO has less mistakes
than the Wall Street Journal, but you will catch
mistakes, you'll see, you'll be proud of those.
