00:17
🎙️
I expect that there will be many fun lectures in the sense that we're going to have you know we're going to be
我預期我們會有很多有趣的課程，因為我們將會…
00:21
🎙️
discussing a little more exactly at the right time in which that issue is an is an important issue at least as D in the
在適當的時候更精確地討論，這個問題至少在報紙上是一個重要的議題，而且我們正處於…
00:30
🎙️
newspapers and you know we live in we are going through a very interesting time for microeconomist inflation is
對微觀經濟學家來說，一個非常有趣的時期，通貨膨脹…
00:37
🎙️
unusually high something needs to be done about that er um we still have problems on the supply side of the
不尋常地高，必須採取一些措施來應對。嗯，我們仍然在經濟的供給面…
00:45
🎙️
economy as a result of CO as a result of the slow reopening of China um we have a war going on which is
面臨問題，這源於新冠疫情，也源於中國緩慢地重新開放。嗯，我們還有一場正在進行的戰爭，這…
00:54
🎙️
affecting also the price of energy and it's particularly impacting Europe and all these things are the situation is
影響了能源的價格，尤其對歐洲的影響很大。所有這些因素使得情況…
01:01
🎙️
very fluid all of them can change at at any moment and uh and policy makers are s therefore paying very close attention
非常流動，它們隨時都可能改變，因此政策制定者正在密切關注…
01:10
🎙️
to all these things it's not a normal time if you're a policy maker macroeconomist microeconomist policy
所有這些事情。這不是一個常態，如果你是政策制定者、宏觀經濟學家或微觀經濟學家…
01:17
🎙️
maker uh you you are not sleeping a lot on these days and so so I expect that we will have plenty of time to discuss
現在你可能都睡不好覺。所以，我預期我們會有充足的時間來討論…
01:26
🎙️
interesting things and analyze them um at a slightly higher level than you can do at this moment now I also told you in
並分析有趣的事情，而且分析的層次會比你現在略高。現在，我也在…
01:36
🎙️
the previous in the introduction that that this particular lecture is not going to be of that kind
前面的介紹中告訴過你，這次的課程不會是那種…
01:44
🎙️
you know it's going to be very boring in the sense that you know we need to start with definitions and and and I don't
你們會覺得非常無聊的，因為我們需要從定義開始，而我…
01:50
🎙️
know who likes definitions I don't it's very boring now there is an interesting or a curious side of the definitions
不知道誰喜歡定義，這真的非常無聊。不過，定義方面有一個有趣或…
01:58
🎙️
we're going to discuss which which is that if you were taking 1401 microeconomics many of the concepts
值得玩味的地方，那就是如果你正在修習1401微觀經濟學，那麼我們將要描述的許多概念…
02:05
🎙️
we're going to describe require no definition they're obvious I mean if you I ask you for output of a factory that
都不需要定義，它們是顯而易見的。例如，如果我問你一家生產汽車的工廠的產出…
02:10
🎙️
produces cars it's pretty obvious that it's a number of cars if I ask you for the prices of those cars is pretty
那麼很明顯就是汽車的數量。如果我問你這些汽車的價格，你也清楚知道汽車的價格是什麼…
02:16
🎙️
obvious what the price of a car is not so for macro because if I ask you what is the output of the US economy well
但對宏觀經濟學來說就不同了，如果我問你美國經濟的產出是什麼…
02:24
🎙️
there's millions of goods and services are produced at the same time so so what do we mean by output a single measure of
那麼數百萬種商品和服務都在同時生產，所以我們說的產出是什麼？是單一的衡量標準嗎？或者，如果我問你…
02:31
🎙️
output or if I ask you about the price level or the inflation the rate at which that price level is changing well what
物價水準或通貨膨脹，也就是物價水準變動的速度，我們到底在說什麼？很容易看到汽車的價格正在上漲…
02:37
🎙️
are we talking about it's very easy to see where the price of a car is going up but if we're mixing sort of millions of
但如果我們混合了數百萬種…
02:44
🎙️
different goods and services then it's a little harder and that's the reason we need this lecture because it's it's a
如果是不同的商品和服務，那就稍微困難一些，這也是我們需要這堂課的原因，因為它比1401更困難，我們需要定義一些基本概念，但它們有個小訣竅，因為你加總的是蘋果和…
02:50
🎙️
little harder than 1401 and we need to Define basic things but they have a trick because you're suming apples and
不僅僅是蘋果和橘子，還有蘋果、橘子、醫療服務、金融服務，所有這些加在一起，
02:56
🎙️
oranges not only apples and oranges apples oranges health services financial services all of them in in one piece and
所以這有點棘手，這也是我們需要這堂無聊的課的原因，我們需要深入了解
03:05
🎙️
so so it's a little trickier and that's the reason we need this boring lecture we need to go through
稍微棘手的產出價格等定義。
03:11
🎙️
that slightly trickier definition of output prices and so on
好，那麼讓我從最基本的事情開始，總體產出，歸根結底，當經濟處於
03:21
🎙️
ER okay so let me let me start with the most basic thing aggregate output at the end of the day when where the econom is
衰退期還是沒有時，以及我們是否喜歡它，取決於產出的情況，產出是否以過去的速度增長，
03:28
🎙️
in a recession or not and so we don't like it or we do like it depends on what is happening to Output is output growing
增長速度是否變慢，或者正在下降？這對於宏觀經濟以及
03:36
🎙️
at the pace it used to grow is it growing less or it's declining well that's very important for macro and to
了解一個經濟體的健康狀況，微觀經濟的健康狀況都非常重要，但我們需要先定義我們所說的
03:44
🎙️
understand the health of an economy the microeconomic health of an economy but we need to start by defining what we
產出是什麼，因為當你加總這麼多的蘋果…
03:50
🎙️
mean by output and because it's a tricky thing to do when you're adding so many apples
橘子、金融服務、
03:56
🎙️
oranges Financial Services ER entertainment and lots of things that are very different H it wasn't there we
娛樂和其他非常不同的東西時，這是一件棘手的事情。過去我們沒有一個好的方法來做到這一點。
04:05
🎙️
didn't have a good way of doing that in fact the national accounts as we know them in the US is something that we have
事實上，我們所知的美國國民帳戶，是二戰後，
04:12
🎙️
since the post-war period in in the late 40s that we develop the technique the approach to come up with a measure of
40年代末才發展起來的技術和方法，用來衡量我們的產出。
04:19
🎙️
our output before that we had measures proxies you know industrial production is very high I meaning we're producing
在那之前，我們有的只是衡量指標或替代指標，你知道，工業生產非常高，
04:26
🎙️
lots of cars stuff like that and somebody but something systematic like we have today is a pretty recent uh
這意味著我們生產了很多汽車之類的東西，但像今天這樣系統性的東西，還是一個比較近期的
04:33
🎙️
thing okay we call that NEPA the national income and product account income and product that's going
發展。好，我們稱之為NIPA，國民收入和產出帳戶，這將會
04:42
🎙️
to be very important for macro as you'll see in a minute um so the main measure of aggregate output is what we call
對於宏觀經濟學非常重要，正如你稍後會看到的。因此，總體產出的主要衡量標準是我們所說的
04:49
🎙️
gross domestic product or simply GDP you hear GDP that means output of an economy why is gross and not net you're not
國內生產總值，或者簡稱GDP。你聽到GDP，就意味著一個經濟體的產出。
04:58
🎙️
going to worry about that in this course okay but that's you hear GDP most microeconomist wouldn't say
為什麼是總值而不是淨值？你這門課不需要擔心這個問題。但這就是GDP的意思，
05:06
🎙️
output they would say GDP it's very short it's efficient and so on well that's what it means it's the output of
微觀經濟學家通常不會說產出，他們會說GDP，它非常簡短、高效等等。這就是它的含義，它是產出。
05:11
🎙️
an economy but how do we Define it as I said before it's much harder than when you have an individual
一個經濟體，但我們該如何定義它？就像我之前說的，這比定義個體經濟要困難得多。
05:17
🎙️
good by the way I will be most of the time I will say Goods but really is goods and services
好的，順便說一下，我大部分時間會說「商品」，但實際上指的是商品和服務。
05:26
🎙️
but it's very long to say goods and services no so whenever I say Goods I'm not trying to play any trick on you I
但說「商品和服務」太長了，所以每當我说「商品」時，我並不是想玩弄什麼花樣，
05:33
🎙️
really mean goods and services I just mean lazy okay and most people are lazy that way okay now what is the difference
我真正指的是商品和服務，我只是比較懶，好嗎？而且大多數人都是這樣，好。那麼，商品和服務的區別是什麼？
05:40
🎙️
between goods and services you you're not going to worry a lot about that in this no you're not going to worry at all
在這門課中，你不需要過於擔心這個問題，事實上，你根本不需要擔心。
05:45
🎙️
about that in this course but just to get a sense goods are things that you know that are tangible services are
但為了有個概念，商品是可以觸摸的實物，而服務則不然。
05:52
🎙️
things that are not that tangible there are benefits that you receive from the task that someone else operates on you
服務是你從他人提供的任務中獲得的利益。
05:58
🎙️
so you go to the to you know the medical center you don't come up with a piece of a machine to well they may lend you
所以，你去醫療中心，你不會帶走機器的一部分，好吧，他們可能會借給你一些東西，
06:07
🎙️
something but but you don't come out with an objective you come out with the service provided by a doctor to you okay
但你帶走的是醫生為你提供的服務，好嗎？
06:14
🎙️
and the same happens if you go to a bank you don't come with a ATM with you what you come up with is the service of
如果你去銀行，你不會帶走一台提款機，你獲得的是交易、存款、貸款等服務。
06:21
🎙️
having done a transaction or deposit or go on a mortgage or something like that it's a service if you go to a
這是一種服務。如果你去餐廳，你帶走的是一種體驗，
06:28
🎙️
restaurant again you don't what you can what you have is an experience it's a people provided an experience to you
是人們為你提供的體驗。事情有點棘手，因為如果你外帶，
06:36
🎙️
things are a little tricky because if you do a take out well is that an experience or is really the goods so so
那麼這是一種體驗，還是真正的商品？所以，如果你深入研究這些細節，
06:43
🎙️
if you get into those details which you're not going to get it gets to be tricky but but but just to get a
情況會變得棘手，但總體而言，為了有個概念，美國的消費者，
06:49
🎙️
sense on average a consumer in the US two third of the consumption is in services not in Goods it's not sort of
大約三分之二的消費是服務，而不是商品。
06:58
🎙️
the banana and so on that you buy it's a lot of the financial services health services and entertainment and things
並非你購買的香蕉之類的東西，而是大量的金融服務、醫療服務、娛樂和旅行等等。
07:05
🎙️
like that traveling that's what you spend most of your time having clarified that you can of forget that from now on
在釐清了這一點之後，你可以從現在開始忘記它。
07:14
🎙️
I'm going to say Goods occasionally may say goods and services but I always mean the same okay good so um so how do we
我偶爾會說「商品」，有時會說「商品和服務」，但我的意思始終是一樣的，好嗎？
07:24
🎙️
measure these things so well there there are different ways ER of of of doing this something happened to my slide
那麼，我們該如何衡量這些東西呢？嗯，有很多不同的方法，呃，我的幻燈片出了點問題。
07:32
🎙️
there okay there we are um so suppose that you have a an economy that is very simple I don't need
沒事，我們找到了。嗯，假設你擁有一種非常簡單的經濟體，我不需要
07:41
🎙️
to tell you how simple this economy is it has just two firms okay suppose we have an economy
我不用多說這個經濟體有多簡單，它只有兩家公司，好，假設我們有一個
07:48
🎙️
that's very simple has two firms one firm produces a steel and the other one produces cars and the company that
非常簡單的經濟體，有兩家公司，一家公司生產鋼鐵，另一家公司生產汽車，生產汽車的公司向公司購買所有鋼鐵，你，作為消費者，並不會購買，你不會直接購買鋼鐵
07:56
🎙️
produces cars buys all the steel from the company no body you as a consumer don't buy you don't buy steel directly
生產汽車的公司購買鋼鐵，用來生產汽車，然後你購買汽車，好，這就是我們的簡單經濟體，而且
08:03
🎙️
the car company buys a steel uses to produce a car and you buy the car okay so that's our simple economy and that's
汽車公司購買鋼鐵，用來生產汽車，然後你購買汽車，好，這就是我們的簡單經濟體，而這
08:10
🎙️
those are the the accounts of the of the simple economy so there you have company one has a revenue from sales it sells
些就是這個簡單經濟體的帳戶，所以你看到第一家公司有銷售收入，它銷售
08:20
🎙️
$100 okay so price of steel times steel is
100美元，好，所以鋼鐵的價格乘以鋼鐵的數量是
08:25
🎙️
$100 the second company H uses B is Ste uses workers and sells
100美元，第二家公司H使用B是Ste使用工人並銷售
08:34
🎙️
$200 no so the question I ask you the first question I ask you here is well what is the GDP of this economy here you
200美元，不，所以我要問你的第一個問題是，嗯，這個經濟體的GDP是多少，你
08:40
🎙️
have an economy that has two goods needless to say a real economy is a lot more complicated than this but you have
有一個有兩種商品的經濟體，不用說，真實的經濟體比這個複雜得多，但你
08:46
🎙️
two companies and I ask you what is GDP so the obvious things that you could come up with is well I Su all the
有兩家公司，我問你GDP是多少，顯而易見的是，你可以說，嗯，我把所有
08:54
🎙️
revenues okay so that's the obvious one the total GDP of these economies is 300 that's a sensible
收入加總，好，這很明顯，這個經濟體的總GDP是300美元，這是一個合理的
09:02
🎙️
answer okay at least at this moment I would accept that as a sensible answer in the quiz I wouldn't but here it's a
答案，好，至少目前我會認為這是個合理的答案，在測驗中我不會，但這裡是一個
09:09
🎙️
sensible answer I mean well you ask me for what is the total output of that economy I sum up all the revenues on
合理的答案，我的意思是，好吧，你問我這個經濟體的總產出是多少，我把所有銷售收入加總
09:15
🎙️
sales and that's 300 okay so so um is it
起來，就是300美元，好，所以，嗯，是
09:24
🎙️
300 well or is it 200 I mean that's another you says well look only the final goods perhaps should count because
300美元，還是200美元？我的意思是，另一個說法是，也許只有最終商品應該被計算在內，因為
09:34
🎙️
you know this is the only thing that you as a consumer will ever see this part not that those are two sensible answers
你知道，這僅僅是你作為消費者所能看到的東西，這部分，而不是那些，這兩種說法都很有道理。
09:42
🎙️
and what I'll show you in three different ways is that the right answer is 200 for that economy okay not 300 the
我將用三種不同的方式向你展示，對於這個經濟體而言，正確答案是200，而不是300。
09:51
🎙️
right answer is 200 so method one H and all these methods are used and
正確答案是200，所以第一種方法是H，而且所有這些方法都被使用，
09:59
🎙️
they use to check each other H to compute H GDP uh so method one is what I said here
並且被用來互相驗證，以計算GDP。所以第一種方法就是我這裡所說的，
10:08
🎙️
is final goods you said GDP is the value of the final goods and services producing the economy during a
最終商品，你說GDP是經濟體在一段
10:17
🎙️
given period of time notice that GDP is a concept of a flow it's something you produce in a year okay that's the reason
給定的時間內所生產的最終商品和服務的價值，請注意，GDP是一個流量的概念，是你在一年內所生產的東西，這就是原因
10:22
🎙️
you say GDP of the US in 2022 was you know 23 23 trillion dollar is in a year
你會說2022年美國的GDP是23兆美元，你知道，這是在一年內
10:31
🎙️
okay it's a it's a period of time okay so so that's one definition and one way
好的，這是一個時間段，好的，所以這是一個定義和一種
10:38
🎙️
of of of er of making sense of this definition is imagine that I give you the same economy
理解這個定義的方式是，想像我給你同一個經濟體
10:48
🎙️
with the same two factories and now all of a sudden I tell you you know what I'm going to merge the two companies so
擁有相同的兩家工廠，然後突然我告訴你，我要合併這兩家公司，
10:54
🎙️
company the car company will buy the steel meal or whatever well if I now put together those two
公司，汽車公司將會購買鋼鐵廠，或者其他，那麼如果我現在把這兩家
11:01
🎙️
accounts now I never see the steel because it that's all happening inside the the factory and it's still the case
公司的帳目合併起來，你就不會再看到鋼鐵，因為這一切都發生在工廠內部，而且情況仍然是
11:07
🎙️
that the economy would be producing 200 Cars and all that you would see is 200 no because I would put this thing
這個經濟體生產200輛汽車，而你所看到的一切是200輛，不，因為我會把這些東西
11:14
🎙️
together there was a steel that this company had purchased from that but now it's all inside okay so so if I put them
放在一起，那家公司之前從另一家公司購買了鋼鐵，但現在它都在內部了，好的，所以如果我把它們
11:21
🎙️
together then that steel there doesn't appear because it's all produced inhouse and now GDP would be 200 well it makes
放在一起，那麼那批鋼鐵就不會出現，因為它都是自產自銷的，現在GDP是200，這有道理，僅僅因為我改變了公司的所有權結構，你的GDP
11:28
🎙️
no sense that just because I change the ownership structure of the companies that your GDP
沒道理，僅僅因為我改變了公司的所有權結構，你的GDP
11:34
🎙️
changes collapses from 300 to 200 if I only measuring final goods though I don't have that problem it's still 200
改變從300到200，如果我只計算最終產品的話，我倒沒有這個問題，它仍然是200
11:42
🎙️
doesn't matter that I have the merge slice and LIC in 20 or whatever so that's that tells you that that's we're
沒關係我把合併、切片和LIC放在20年或任何時候，這告訴你，我們
11:48
🎙️
going the right way here because you know it's it's a very robust answer that is you don't count intermediate output
正朝著正確的方向前進，因為你知道這是一個非常穩健的答案，也就是你不會計算中間投入
11:54
🎙️
you only count the final goods which are the things that the consumer will buy buy the firms will buy for investment
你只計算最終產品，也就是消費者會購買的東西，企業會購買用於投資的東西
12:01
🎙️
and things of that kind that foreigners will buy alternative method is GDP is the sum
以及其他類似的東西，外國人也會購買。另一種方法是GDP是經濟體內在特定時期內增加值的總和。什麼是增加值？
12:09
🎙️
of value added in the economy during a given period of time what is value added the
增加值是公司生產的最終產品與其為生產這些產品而購買的中間投入之間的差額。
12:17
🎙️
difference between final the final goods produced by a company and the intermediate inputs it purchased to
最終產品與公司購買的中間投入之間的差額，用於
12:23
🎙️
produce those goods okay so what is the value added of the steel company here
生產這些產品。好的，那麼這個鋼鐵公司的增加值是多少？
12:30
🎙️
it's the answer is there but you know but what is the value added it's 100 how do I know it's 100 well because it's not
答案就在那裡，但你知道，增加值是多少？是100。我怎麼知道是100？嗯，因為它沒有
12:38
🎙️
buying any intermediate input and the revenue is 100 okay so that's the reason I get 100
購買任何中間投入，而且收入是100。好的，所以這就是我得到100的原因。
12:45
🎙️
there okay 100 there's no intermediate input what is the value added of the car company well the revenue on sales is 200
那裡。好的，100，沒有中間投入。那麼汽車公司的增加值是多少？嗯，銷售收入是200
12:53
🎙️
but it purchase 100 in intermediate inputs so the value is 200 minus 100 the value out of this company is 100 100
但它購買了100的中間投入，所以價值是200減去100，這個公司的價值是100，100
13:01
🎙️
plus 100 I get my 200 again yep consider wages to be in really good no
再加上100，我又得到200了。是的，考慮到工資是很好的，不
13:11
🎙️
that's those are not Goods those are factors of production okay so this and the same
那些不是商品，而是生產要素。好的，這和之前說的一樣
13:17
🎙️
there are machines in that factory that are helping you produce things that's a service of the machine it's Capital
在那家工廠裡有機器幫助你生產東西，這是機器提供的服務，也就是資本。
13:23
🎙️
that's not an intermediate input an intermediate input is another good or service that you buy for the the purpose
這不是中間投入，中間投入是指你為了生產該產品而購買的另一種商品或服務。
13:29
🎙️
of producing that that good okay so workers is not workers are working inside your company and so on if
如果工作是外包出去的，並且你從另一個公司那裡取得一些東西，
13:38
🎙️
the work was if the work was produced was outsourced and you had another company that produces something that you
這些東西是你從外包的工人那裡取得的，這就會是中間投入，但你需要將價值從你外包給的
13:45
🎙️
use from those workers that would be an intermediate input but you would have to count the value out of the other of the
公司那裡扣除。所以這是第二種方法，你會發現這兩種方法得出的結果都剛好是200。
13:50
🎙️
companies you have outsourced too you see so that's method two two and you see we get exactly at 200 those two method
這些方法被稱為生產方法，衡量經濟產出有不同的方式，第三種
13:59
🎙️
methods are called production methods there are different ways of measuring the production of the economy the third
方法，也是最後一種，是所得法，意思是說，所有產出的東西都必須由某人賺取，
14:04
🎙️
method and the last one is an income method which means look all that is
工人、資本所有者，總之必須有人擁有它。如果公司集體銷售200美元，
14:12
🎙️
produced has to be earned by someone the workers the owners of capital somebody has to own that if the firms sell
這200美元就必須分配給某人，這個某人指的是工人、資本所有者，以及
14:20
🎙️
collectively $200 those $200 have to be allocated to someone someone means workers the owners of capital of the
在現實經濟中，政府（因為你繳稅等等）。好吧，我們先不用擔心政府。
14:28
🎙️
first Ms or in realistic economies the government you pay taxes and things of that kind okay we're not going to worry
所以這是另一種方法，也就是方法三，你只需要加總所得。
14:35
🎙️
about the government for a while so that's an alternative method it's method three you just sum the
關於你的問題，這裡的生產要素，沒有政府，
14:42
🎙️
incomes so who are the factors of productions here related to your question in this there is no government
沒有稅收，所以我們只有工人與利潤。資本，也就是公司的所有者，工資是80加70，
14:47
🎙️
here no taxes so we have only workers and profits you the capital the owners of the Company wages is 80 + 70 is
等於150，利潤是20加30，等於50，150的工資加上50的利潤，又回到了你的
14:57
🎙️
150 profits is 20 + 30 50 150 in wages plus 50 in profit gives you back your
200。好的，所以這就是我們衡量這些事物的三種方式，你會發現它們給出的結果完全相同。
15:05
🎙️
200 okay so those are the three ways we have of measuring these things and you see they give you exactly the same
好的，所以這就是我們衡量這些事物的三種方式，你會發現它們給出的結果完全相同。
15:10
🎙️
result now there is something as I as I from the construction of national account there
現在，在國家帳戶的建構過程中，我所說的有一點很有趣，那就是，我可以看到產出等於收入，這對宏觀經濟來說非常重要，對宏觀經濟來說非常重要，但對微觀經濟來說卻完全不重要。
15:16
🎙️
is something interesting in what I just said which is look I can that production is the same as
當你只看一家公司，例如一家汽車公司時，的確，該公司的產出會變成公司所有者和
15:23
🎙️
income that's going to be very important for macro very important for macro and it's totally unimportant for
工人的收入的一部分，但這部分收入不一定會花在汽車上，它可以花在
15:32
🎙️
micro when you're looking at a company for example in micro and you're looking at a car company by
食物、娛樂以及其他事物上。但在宏觀經濟中，你還會把收入花在哪裡，而不是在
15:38
🎙️
itself it is true that you know the output of that company becomes income part for the owners of the company and
你所生產的總體商品上呢？這點非常有趣，這是微觀經濟中一個非常
15:46
🎙️
part for the workers but that income needs not be spent in cars can spend in
獨特的特徵，在微觀經濟中不存在，那就是收入必須花在相同的商品上。
15:53
🎙️
food entertainment and whatever not so in macro because what else you going to
如果經濟是封閉的，稍後我們會將經濟開放到世界其他地方，然後你就會買一些
15:59
🎙️
spend it to than in the same good that you're producing in the aggregate good so it's very interesting that's a very
中國商品之類的，但如果保持封閉，你就不能買汽車，因為你生產的是汽車，
16:06
🎙️
distinctive feature of micro that is not present in micro is that that income has to be spent in the same Goods if the
但你必須用經濟中的單一商品來購買，而這個單一商品是我們所消費的所有商品的總和。
16:12
🎙️
econom is closed later on we're going to open the economy to the rest of the world and then you get you buy some
這將會非常重要。總之，這次的內容是否朝著正確的方向發展？
16:16
🎙️
Chinese goods and blah blah blah but if you keep it close hey you are not going to buy cars that's what you work on but
好的，就是這樣。現在你已經知道什麼是GDP以及不同的衡量方式。
16:23
🎙️
you're going to have to buy it in the single good of the economy which is the sum of all the
你需要記住這些，用於測驗一和小考一，
16:28
🎙️
goods that we we consume an average that's going to be very important anyways this time is this
並且可以忘記它，因為未來它並不重要。理解這個概念很好，但建構它的不同方式並不重要。
16:35
🎙️
stuff move in the right direction okay so that's that's that's that now you know what GDP is and the different ways
我們需要擔心的是，當你思考一個經濟體的產出時，你實際上是在思考真實產出，
16:41
🎙️
of measuring you're going to have to remember that for for p set one and for quiz one and
也就是汽車和機器等的數量，但如果你有通貨膨脹，例如，商品價格就會
16:49
🎙️
you might as well forget it for the future it's good that you understand the concept but it's different ways of
上漲。
16:53
🎙️
constructing is not very important second thing we need to worry about
構建本身並非很重要，第二個我們需要擔心的
16:59
🎙️
is that whenever you're thinking about the output of an economy you're really trying to think about the real output
是當你思考一個經濟體的產出時，你真正想思考的是實質產出
17:05
🎙️
meaning number of cars and number of machines and so on but you have inflation for example then prices of
也就是汽車數量、機器數量等等，但如果你有通貨膨脹，例如，那麼這些商品的價格
17:11
🎙️
these things are growing and so the total revenue on sales is growing but they don't mean the same and we want to
正在上漲，因此銷售總收入也在上漲，但它們代表的意義不盡相同，我們想要
17:18
🎙️
certainly separate these two things and for that reason we have a concept which is called nominal GDP and another one
肯定地將這兩者區分開來，因此我們有一個概念，叫做名義GDP，還有另一個
17:25
🎙️
which is called real GDP nominal GDP is the simplest thing on Earth is essentially you know we had only one
叫做實質GDP。名義GDP是最簡單的概念，基本上，如果你只有一家
17:32
🎙️
final goods company there which was cars but mind you have cars refrigerators many many things nominal GDP simply you
生產最終商品的企業，那就是汽車，但請記住，有汽車、冰箱等等許多東西，名義GDP簡單地將你
17:39
🎙️
sum all the final goods and you multiply them by the the current price and that gives you the dollar GDP that you have I
加總所有最終商品，然後將它們乘以當期價格，這就得到了你擁有的美元GDP，我
17:46
🎙️
don't know what it is in the US today you could check it but it's $24 trillion a so that's it P * Q you know
不知道美國現在是多少，你可以查一下，但大約是24兆美元，所以就是這樣，價格乘以數量，你
17:55
🎙️
prices times quantity and you sum across all the final goods that's we have to that's one way of
將所有最終商品的價格乘以數量然後加總，這就是我們需要做的事情，這是名義GDP，但再次強調，我們真正關心的是，我們將在稍後討論的，經濟
18:01
🎙️
calculating thing that's nominal GDP but again what we really care about is we're going to get a lot about later on is how
隨著時間的推移表現如何，它是在增長還是沒有增長，名義GDP的增長可能來自兩種不同的原因，可以
18:09
🎙️
that econom is doing over time is it growing is it not growing nominal GDP can grow for two different reasons can
增長是因為經濟體變得更具生產力，生產更多的商品，或者因為價格正在上漲
18:15
🎙️
grow because the economy is really becoming more productive is producing more Goods or because prices are going
上漲。現在，儘管我們可能面臨經濟衰退，但美國的實質名義GDP正在快速增長，
18:23
🎙️
up now at this moment real nominal GDP is growing very fast in the US despite the fact that we may have recession this
今年我們還不確定，但沒有人懷疑名義GDP會增長，因為我們有大量的通貨膨脹，所以你
18:29
🎙️
year we don't know but nobody has any doubt that nominal GDP will grow because we have lots of inflation and so you
想要將這兩者區分開來，而消除通貨膨脹成分的指標，就是我們所說的實質
18:36
🎙️
want to separate these two things and the thing that removes the inflation component is what we call real
你想要將這兩件事區分開來，而消除通貨膨脹成分的指標，就是我們所說的實質
18:43
🎙️
GDP and real GDP if you hear the word only GDP and and that was produced by somebody understand what he's talking
GDP，如果聽到只有GDP這個詞，而且是有人說出來的，就應該理解他指的是實質GDP。好的，如果只是聽到GDP，人們通常想表達的是經濟產出。
18:51
🎙️
about GDP really means real GDP okay if you just hear GDP people are try is trying to say the output of the economy
好的，如果只是聽到GDP，人們想表達的是經濟產出。
18:59
🎙️
well that's real GDP and the real GDP is computed many tricks but but essentially
好的，這就是實質GDP，而實質GDP的計算涉及許多技巧，但基本上…
19:07
🎙️
what you do is you consume you you you you also sum across all the goods you also Su across the goods but
基本上，你做的是將所有商品加總，但
19:16
🎙️
you use constant prices not the prices of that point in time necessarily okay so I'm going to give
你使用的是固定價格，不一定是該時間點的價格。好的，我將給
19:23
🎙️
you a very concrete example but before doing that for this course we're going to call nominal GDP and all nominal
你一個非常具體的例子，但在這樣做之前，在這門課中，我們將名義GDP和所有名義
19:30
🎙️
variables are going to have that's what the textbook does they're going to have a dollar sign in front so that's our
變數都用一個美元符號來表示，就像教科書上那樣，這就是我們的
19:35
🎙️
measure that's nominal GDP GDP is going to be Y without the dollar that's real GDP okay for the first part of the
衡量標準，也就是名義GDP。GDP則用不帶美元符號的Y來表示，這就是實質GDP。好的，在課程的前半部分，直到第一次測驗為止，我們
19:43
🎙️
course up to quiz one we're we're going very we're going to worry very little about nominal things because we want to
不會過多地擔心名義變數，因為我們希望價格完全固定，但你仍然需要了解這個概念，
19:49
🎙️
have prices completely fixed but but you still need to know the concept and
這就是實質GDP。所以現在讓我舉個例子，假設你有這個，這個
19:53
🎙️
that's real GDP so now let me give you an example so suppose you have this this
這個簡單的經濟體，我們只看最終商品，因為這是我們需要檢視的
20:05
🎙️
this the simple economy we had before we're just going to look at final goods because that's what we need to look
內容，以便構建GDP。所以這個經濟體生產汽車，假設在2011年生產了10輛汽車，2012年生產了12輛汽車，2013年生產了13輛汽車，但假設汽車的價格如你所見，20,000、24,000和
20:11
🎙️
at to con to construct GDP and so this economy produces cars and supposedly produces 10 cars in 2011 12 cars in
26,000。名義GDP就是這個的簡單乘積，也就是用這個數字乘以那個數字，這樣就得到
20:21
🎙️
2012 and 13 cars in in 2013 but suppos the price of a car is what you see there 20,000 24,000 and
2012和2013年的汽車數量，但假設汽車的價格如你所見，20,000、24,000和26,000。名義GDP就是這個的簡單乘積，也就是用這個數字乘以那個數字，這樣就得到
20:30
🎙️
26,000 nominal GDP is simply the product you know of this times that that gives you
26,000 名義GDP就是這個數字乘以那個數字的簡單乘積，也就是這樣。
20:37
🎙️
$200,000 12 cars times $25,000 gives you 288 and so on that's nominal GDP real
200,000，12輛車乘以25,000等於288，以此類推，這就是名義GDP，而實際
20:45
🎙️
GDP you have to pick which price you want to use but only use one and don't vary it over time
GDP你必須選擇你想要使用的價格，但只能使用一種，而且不能隨時間變化。
20:54
🎙️
okay so in this particular case we pick 2012 okay so that means when you say GD real
好的，所以在這個例子中，我們選擇2012年。好的，這意味著當你說實際GDP
21:01
🎙️
GDP at 20 2012 2012 base 2012 or at 2012 prices means that you're using the prices of 2012 you don't bury that you
GDP時，你使用的是2012年的價格，你不會改變它，而是讓數量隨時間變化，但價格保持不變。因此，以2012年為基準的實際GDP
21:11
🎙️
let quantities change over time but the prices remain fixed so in this case real GDP at
在22美元時，也就是10輛車乘以25,000，得到240,000。
21:17
🎙️
$22 is you know is 10 cars times 25,000 that give you 240,000
12輛車乘以24,000等於288，這很有趣。今年名義GDP和實際GDP相同，為什麼？
21:25
🎙️
12 cars time 24,000 28 this is interesting for this year nominal GDP is the same as real GDP why
因為這純屬巧合。沒錯，我們正在使用
21:32
🎙️
is that it's an accident exactly we're using that's a
基準年，所以名義GDP總是等於基準年的實際GDP，也就是我們選定的年份。
21:43
🎙️
base year so that's nominal GDP will always be equal to real GDP at the base year that's the Year we're picking as
基準年，因為我們使用的是這些價格。那麼2013年呢？嗯，這不是
21:50
🎙️
the base know because those are the prices we're using I what about 2013 well is is not
26,000乘以13等於24,1013，所以我們得到312，很明顯，實際GDP
21:57
🎙️
26,000 * 13 is 24, 1013 so we get 312 and it's obvious here that real GDP is
增長速度慢於名義GDP，為什麼？嗯，因為這個經濟體有通貨膨脹，價格隨時間上升。
22:04
🎙️
growing less than nominal GDP why is that well because this economy has inflation prices are rising over time
增長速度慢於名義GDP，為什麼？嗯，因為這個經濟體有通貨膨脹，價格隨時間上升，而我們想要消除這種影響，當我們想要了解實際概念時，實際概念會消除價格
22:12
🎙️
and we want to remove that when we want to look at the real concept the real concept removes the price
影響。有時候你不想消除所有的價格影響，這經常發生，例如
22:19
🎙️
effect there are times in which you don't want to remove all that price effect and it happens a lot for example
在電腦方面，因為有時候電腦價格的上漲僅僅是因為電腦更好。
22:26
🎙️
in computers because sometimes the increase in the price of the computer is simply because the computer is better
在電腦方面，有時電腦價格的上升僅僅是因為電腦本身更好。
22:32
🎙️
and and you want to correct for quality and so on but again that's not something you need to worry about in this course
而且你們想要調整品質等等，但再次強調，這不是我們在本課程中需要擔心的問題。
22:42
🎙️
okay maybe some of you deciding the pace which you want me to move I'm really puzzled by this stuff here this is this
好，也許有些人決定我講課的速度，這點我真的感到困惑。這是書上的內容，你們可以看到美國名目和實質 GDP 變化，基準年為 2012 年。正如我
22:50
🎙️
is from the book and you see what happened in in the US with nominal and real GDP with base year 2012 so as I
之前說過的，這兩條曲線分別代表名目 GDP（紅線）和實質 GDP（藍線），我們使用 2012 年作為基準年，所以
22:58
🎙️
said before these two curves one is nominal GDP the red line the blue line is real GDP we're using Bas year 2012 so
在那個點，它們應該是相同的。你們會非常清楚地看到
23:06
🎙️
at that point they have to be the same and what you see very very clearly there
藍線代表的實質 GDP 比紅線更平緩，為什麼呢？
23:12
🎙️
is that a the Blue Line real GDP is flatter than the red line why is
是因為通貨膨脹，對吧？順便一提，我
23:20
🎙️
that why is it yeah is inflation see yeah by the way I
有相關資料可以提供給你們，課後可以問我。好的，總之，在美國，從
23:29
🎙️
do have a reference for you so ask me after the okay good um anyway so yeah in the US between
1916 年到 2018 年，名目 GDP 增長了 38 倍，而實質 GDP 增長了 5.7 倍，差異很大。所以，所以你們
23:37
🎙️
1916 and 2018 real nominal GDP increased by a factor of 38 while real GDP by a factor of 5.7 big difference so so you
在查看 GDP 時，一定要去除通貨膨脹的影響，尤其是在
23:45
🎙️
better be careful when when you look at GDP that you are removing inflation especially in I mean if you were to look
阿根廷，那裡長期處於衰退，經歷了嚴重的衰退，但名目 GDP 卻在爆炸式增長，因為那裡的通貨膨脹高達 10,000%。所以，所以這
23:51
🎙️
in Argentina these guys have had a recession a chronic recession for a long
造成很大的
23:55
🎙️
time big recessions but nominal GDP is explo clothing because they have 10,000% inflation so so so it makes a big
差異，尤其是在長時間的跨度內。這只是為了讓你們了解全貌，美國的
24:05
🎙️
difference especially over time this is just so you get the picture the complete picture for the US this is
GDP 增長情況，自我們有國家帳戶以來。好的，一些明顯的現象，嗯，再次
24:13
🎙️
a GDP growth in the US since we have national accounts okay and some noticeable things well again
衰退，這是一次巨大的衰退，記住我們稱之為大衰退，一次嚴重的衰退，而且這個...
24:21
🎙️
recessions this was a big recession remember we call this the Great Recession big recession and well this is
衰退，這是一次重大的衰退，請記住我們稱之為大衰退，一次嚴重的衰退，而且這個…
24:29
🎙️
covid and then this is 2020 and then they bounce back in 2021 when we reopen the economy big growth but that's very
新冠疫情，然後是2020年，接著在2021年經濟復甦時大幅增長，但這非常
24:36
🎙️
anomalous I mean that's a very weird shock okay but that's a you see these are all the shaded areas are
反常。我的意思是，這是一個非常特殊的衝擊，沒錯，你看這些陰影區域都是
24:43
🎙️
recessions recessions are defined in a slightly more complicated way than that but one sort of er popular way of
衰退，衰退的定義比這樣稍微複雜一些，但一種比較普遍的說法是
24:52
🎙️
describing ression is as episode where you have two consecutive quarters of negative inflation that's not the formal
描述衰退的方式是，連續兩個季度出現負增長，這並不是正式
24:59
🎙️
definition of res but it's pretty close okay and so so that's that's what you have
的定義，但很接近。好的，所以，這就是
25:06
🎙️
there another concept is an employment rate the unemployment rate so that's GDP and we're going to the in the first part
那裡還有一個概念是就業率，也就是失業率。所以，有GDP，我們還將在第一部分
25:14
🎙️
of the course we want to worry a lot about that we're going to build a model on how to find equilibrium H GDP okay
的課程中，我們將非常關注這一點，並建立一個模型來尋找均衡的GDP。好的
25:22
🎙️
and we're going to see what happens with fiscal policy with monetary policy how how does equilibrium GDP macroeconomic
並且我們會觀察在財政政策、貨幣政策下，均衡GDP和總體經濟
25:28
🎙️
EIC output changes with different forms of policies or when consumers get scared or stuff like that
總產出的變化，以及當消費者感到恐慌或類似情況時的變化。好的
25:38
🎙️
okay what about the unemployment rate the unemployment rate is not something we want to worry a lot about until the
好的，那麼失業率呢？失業率不是我們需要過多關注的事情，直到
25:44
🎙️
second part of the course after quiz one but I still I want to get over with these
課程的第二部分，在小考一之後，但我還是想先釐清這些
25:48
🎙️
definitions so what is employment is a number of people who have a job that's easy unemployment is slightly less easy
定義。所以，就業是指有多少人有工作，這很容易理解。失業稍微複雜一些，因為首先，顯然，要成為一名受僱者，你不能沒有工作，但這還不
25:57
🎙️
because it's first of all obviously to be an employee you don't have to have a you cannot have a job so but it's not
夠，僅僅沒有工作並不代表你是失業者，失業者是指那些
26:03
🎙️
enough that you don't have a job is an unemployed person is somebody that
沒有工作並且正在找工作的人。好的，並非所有失業者都在找工作。
26:10
🎙️
doesn't have a job and is looking for one okay not all unemployed people look for
沒工作但正在找工作，好的，並非所有失業者都在找工作。
26:18
🎙️
your job not all non-employed people are looking for jobs okay so un to be unemployed you
工作，並非所有非勞動力人口都在找工作，好的，所以要被定義為失業，
26:26
🎙️
need to not have a job and be looking for one the labor force what we call the labor force is the sum of those two
需要沒有工作並且正在找工作。勞動力指的是這兩群人的總和，
26:34
🎙️
groups the employed and the unemployed that would like to get a job
群體，就業人口和失業但想找工作的人。
26:41
🎙️
okay the unemployment rate which is something I showed you in the previous lecture is just a ratio of these two
好的，失業率，我在之前的課堂上向你們展示過，只是這兩項概念的比率，
26:48
🎙️
concepts the unemployed over the labor force notice over the labor force not population the labor force which is a
失業人口除以勞動力人口，注意是除以勞動力人口，而不是總人口。勞動力是
26:55
🎙️
sum of the employed and those that are unemployed that do not have a job and are looking for a job
就業人口和那些失業但正在找工作的人的總和。
27:05
🎙️
okay how how is an employment measure in the US is mostly a survey and I have the the the info there it's called the CPS
好的，美國的就業數據主要來自調查，我那裡有相關資訊，它被稱為CPS，
27:15
🎙️
the current population survey that consults lots of households and they ask them about the employment status whether
當前人口調查，該調查會拜訪許多家庭，並詢問他們就業狀況，無論他們
27:21
🎙️
they have been looking for a job over the last two weeks or not and so on and that's the way we come up with with the
在過去兩週內是否一直在找工作等等，這就是我們計算數據的方式。
27:27
🎙️
number as as I said before H those that do not have a job but are not looking for a job they haven't been looking for
數字，就像我之前說過的，那些沒有工作但沒有在找工作的人，他們在過去兩週內沒有
27:33
🎙️
a job in the last two weeks are called not in the labor force that's that's what we say now these concepts are
找工作，就被稱為「非勞動力人口」，這就是我們所說的。現在這些概念
27:41
🎙️
between an employed and not in the labor force is it's not not that clear we we we look at the employment rate but we
在就業和非勞動力人口之間，界線並不明確。我們關注就業率，但我們也
27:49
🎙️
also tend to look at those people as well because many people are simply discouraged they would like to get a job
會關注那些人，因為很多人只是感到灰心，他們想找工作，
27:54
🎙️
but they have been looking for a while and they haven't found it and it it happens that there is a lot more
但他們找了一段時間，卻沒有找到，而且通常在經濟衰退期間會有更多
27:59
🎙️
discouraged workers during recessions and when you're having a big recession it's very difficult to find a job so
在經濟衰退期間會有更多灰心喪氣的失業者，而且在發生大規模衰退時，找到工作非常困難，因此
28:06
🎙️
it's very easy to get discourage and so that's the reason we look at broader measures of non-employment than the
這也是為什麼我們觀察就業以外更廣泛的指標，而不僅僅是
28:12
🎙️
typical unemployment rate because a lot of those not in the labor force people that
一般失業率，因為許多不在勞動力中的人，其實是灰心喪氣的，他們經過一段時間後就放棄了。
28:18
🎙️
do not have a job and are not looking for a job are really discouraged they just give up after a while
好，勞動力參與率是一個非常重要的概念，通常在大多數時候會被忽略，
28:24
🎙️
okay the participation rate and that's a very important concept something you would have ignored most of the time is
但現在卻至關重要。勞動力參與率是勞動人口與工作年齡總人口的比率，
28:31
🎙️
very critical at this moment the participation rate is the ratio of the labor force to the total population of
你會排除像是監獄中的人口等等，但總之勞動人口就是
28:39
🎙️
working age and you exclude people you know in prison and stuff like that but but a so it's label force is which is
就業人口和失業人口的總和，除以那些理論上可以工作的人數。
28:48
🎙️
the sum of the employed and the unemployed divided by those that could work in
原則上來說，好，這就是我們所稱的勞動力參與率。這些數字看起來如何？我向你展示了
28:53
🎙️
principle okay and that we call that's what we call the participation rate how do these numbers look I showed you
這張圖表在之前的課程中，那是失業率，在新冠疫情期間飆升，但它已經
29:01
🎙️
this picture in the previous uh lecture and that's the unemployment rate it skyrocketed during covid but it has
大幅下降，正如我在之前的課程中所說，一個重要的問題是，今天的失業率非常低，
29:10
🎙️
declined enormously and as I said in the previous lecture a big issue is that the unemployment rate today is extremely low
我們自從 60 年代初以來就沒有見過這樣的水平。好，今天的失業率是
29:17
🎙️
we haven't seen levels like this since the early 60s okay the unemployment rate today is
處於歷史低點，這既是好事，也是問題，因為我們正經歷通貨膨脹
29:24
🎙️
at record low levels and that's a problem some wonderful but it's also as a problem because we have an inflation
問題，而這兩件事是相互關聯的，你將在課程後面的部分學到。好，目前的情況就是
29:31
🎙️
problem and those two things are connected as you will learn later on in the course okay but that's what we have
這樣，失業率很低。現在失業率如此之低的原因，主要有兩個，一是
29:37
🎙️
right now that's the unemployment rate now the reason the unemployment rate is so low there are two reasons really one
存在大量的刺激政策，包括財政政策和貨幣政策，因此總需求和消費者
29:45
🎙️
is that there was lots of stimulus policy fiscal policy monetary policy so aggregate demand and consumers that were
原因是存在大量的刺激政策，包括財政政策和貨幣政策，因此總需求和消費者
29:51
🎙️
fed up of being locked out of restaurants and trips and so on for two years you know decided to travel and so
因為他們在過去兩年裡被封鎖在家，無法去餐廳或旅行，所以他們決定旅行和消費
29:57
🎙️
on so so and they had lots of savings the the US consumer accumulated excess saving of $2.7 trillion and now
如此這般，他們累積了大量的儲蓄，美國消費者累積了超過 2.7 兆美元的超額儲蓄，現在
30:06
🎙️
they're spending this time China a big reason why people expect a big bounce back is because they also had a lot of
他們正在花費這些錢。至於中國，人們預期中國經濟會強勁反彈的一個重要原因是，中國也累積了大量的
30:12
🎙️
savings because they were locked up for for quite some time so so as a result of that there's lots of demand for goods
儲蓄，因為在一段相當長的時間裡，他們也經歷了封鎖。因此，對商品的需求量很大。
30:20
🎙️
and as you're going to learn in the next lecture that means lots of output as well H but the second H reason
就像你將在下一堂課中學習的，這也意味著大量的產出。但第二個重要的原因是
30:30
🎙️
is the following is the participation rate okay
勞動參與率。好，
30:38
🎙️
people haven't come back to work in the magnitudes that we expected so that's a participation rate in the US remember
人們重返工作崗位的幅度不如我們預期，這就是美國的勞動參與率。記住，
30:46
🎙️
participation rate is labor force over all those that could work in principle okay ER what do you think is this look
勞動參與率是指勞動力佔所有理論上可以工作的人口的比例。你認為這個情況看起來如何？
30:55
🎙️
at the participation rate used to be in the 6 below 60s and then there was a big rise in the participation rate in the
勞動參與率曾經在 60 歲以下，然後在美國經歷了一次大幅上升。你認為這是因為女性加入勞動力嗎？女性
31:02
🎙️
US what do you think is this due to women joining work women yeah joining the workforce that's what it
的確加入了勞動力，這就是原因。好，從那以後，儘管女性已經盡了她們的職責，但我們一直在下降，而這
31:11
🎙️
did okay that's that since then since just women did all that they had to do sort of we have been declining and that
是一個問題。但你看這裡，在新冠疫情期間，很多人退出勞動力，這意味著
31:18
🎙️
that's that's an issue but ER but look at what happened here lots of people exit the labor force during covid I mean
他們不得不照顧孩子和/或老年人，所以人們退出了勞動力。
31:28
🎙️
you know they had to take care of the kids and and and or or the elderly and so people withdrew from the labor force
他們不想找工作，而且也感到沮喪。在疫情期間，要找到一份工作非常困難，例如在餐廳工作，簡直是不可能的。但每個人都預期這會恢復到之前的
31:35
🎙️
they didn't want a job it was also discouraging it was very difficult to get a job for iag you work in a
水平。
31:41
🎙️
restaurant it was impossible to get a job in a restaurant so but everyone expected this to recover to the previous
在餐廳打工根本不可能，所以…但大家原本預期情況會恢復到之前的
31:50
🎙️
level and it hasn't okay so you be you see that the participation rate has not come back to the levels preo is
水平，但它並沒有。好的，所以你們會看到勞動參與率並沒有回升到疫情前的水平。
31:58
🎙️
substantially below and that's one of the reasons you know that restaurants complain that they don't have workers
遠低於之前的水平，這也是餐廳抱怨找不到工人的原因之一。
32:04
🎙️
and so on so forth is that many people haven't come back to a labor force we thought this was going to be temporary
總之，很多人沒有回到勞動市場，我們原本以為這會是暫時的。
32:11
🎙️
now there's a concern that a lot of that is really permanent people decided that you know life at home wasn't that bad
現在擔心的是，這其中很大一部分是永久性的，人們覺得在家生活其實也挺好的。
32:17
🎙️
after all less income but but they spend more time with the kids or whatever and so H ER and that's an issue and that
畢竟收入減少了，但他們可以花更多時間陪伴孩子，或者做其他事情。因此勞動參與率下降是一個問題，而且
32:26
🎙️
that's a big reason behind the low unemployment rate and the fact that we have all this inflation has to
這也是失業率低迷以及我們通貨膨脹如此嚴重的很大原因。聯準會低估了勞動參與率的反彈。
32:33
🎙️
do with everyone in particular the fed miscalculated the bounce back of of the participation
這是因為，特別是聯準會，低估了勞動參與率的反彈。
32:42
🎙️
rate good so as I said before we're not going to look at labor market issues until
好的，就像我之前說過的，我們在測驗一之前不會探討勞動市場問題，通貨膨脹也是一樣，我們不會探討
32:49
🎙️
sort of the second part of the course after quiz one and the same is for inflation we're not going to look at
通貨膨脹問題，直到課程的第二部分。因為要將它們聯繫起來，我的意思是，它們是相關的，而且我們
32:54
🎙️
inflation issues until the second part of of the course because to connect them I mean I they are connected and we're
不會探討勞動市場問題，直到大約從現在起的一堂課之後。好的，讓我們看看，但這是一個
33:02
🎙️
not going to look at Labor markets until sort of a lecture from now or so okay but let's look at but this is an
重要變數，而且肯定是你每天在報紙上看到的。
33:09
🎙️
important variable and certainly something you're facing every single day in the newspapers and so on the
通貨膨脹率，所以當你聽到通貨膨脹時，通常指的是一般物價水平的持續上漲。
33:13
🎙️
inflation rate so by inflation when you hear inflation that typically means the sustained rise in the general level of
這並不是說汽車的價格相對於飯店的價格上漲，或者飯店的價格下跌，而是
33:22
🎙️
prices so it's not that the price of cars went up relative to the price of hotels or now down price hotel is that
平均而言，物價正在上漲，這就是我們所說的通貨膨脹。
33:29
🎙️
on average prices are rising that's what we call an inflation inflation um so we're going to call the
平均而言，物價正在上漲，這就是我們所說的通貨膨脹。嗯，所以我們將
33:38
🎙️
price level PT and there are many different price levels all you see so the inflation rate when you hear the
物價水準稱為PT，而且您可以看到有很多不同的物價水準，因此當您聽到通貨膨脹率時，
33:45
🎙️
inflation rate is the rate of change of that price level an episode of
通貨膨脹率指的是該物價水準的變化率，一段
33:52
🎙️
deflation the opposite of what we're experiencing now where we're exper inflation is when that inflation rate is
通貨緊縮，這是我們目前所經歷情況的相反，也就是說，通貨膨脹發生在通貨膨脹率為
33:59
🎙️
negative Japan most prominently has experienced something like that not now but experienced it for on and off for
負數的時候。日本最顯著地經歷過這種情況，雖然現在沒有，但過去斷斷續續經歷了
34:06
🎙️
the last three decades or so um so what is the price level there are many ways of defining it and then there many
三十多年的時間。嗯，那麼物價水準是什麼呢？有很多定義方式，然後又有許多
34:14
🎙️
different price levels a very popular one is what is called the GDP deflator and it's the one you see Le you is never
不同的物價水準。一個非常流行的就是所謂的GDP平減指數，而且您從未在報紙上看到
34:22
🎙️
mentioned in the newspapers okay but we economists tend to look at the deflator the deflator is nothing else than the
提到它，沒錯。但我們經濟學家傾向於關注平減指數。平減指數不過是名義GDP與實際GDP的比率，另一個
34:27
🎙️
ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP another one is far more popular and more relevant for you as consumers is what we
更受歡迎，且與您作為消費者更相關的是我們所稱的消費者物價指數，也就是CPI。您聽到CPI，它指的就是這個。所以它
34:35
🎙️
call the Consumer Price Index that's the CPI you hear CPI that's what it is so it's it's it's it's you calculate the
是…是…您從CPI計算通貨膨脹率，計算方式相同，只是使用CPI而不是GDP平減指數。現在
34:44
🎙️
rate of inflation from the CPI you calculate the same way but you use a CPI there instead of the GDP deflator now it
顯然會讓人感到困惑，事實上，這兩種測量方式
34:52
🎙️
turns out H that obviously confused with it it turns out that these two measures are
其實相當一致。當然，在特定時間點可能存在有趣的差異，但它們
34:58
🎙️
sort of pretty well aligned okay there are differences that may be interesting at some specific point in time but they
告訴您大致相同的圖景。特別是毫無疑問，我們正面臨通貨膨脹問題。
35:04
🎙️
tell you more or less the same picture in particular there is absolutely no doubt that we have an inflation problem
現在，您可以隨意選擇您想要使用的物價指數，而且人們正在變得非常
35:10
🎙️
these days you can be as selective as you want with the price index you want to use and people are getting very
挑選。現在我們有排除能源和食品的CPI，嗯，一件事情是
35:15
🎙️
selective now we have CPI excluding ER well one thing that that makes a lot
現在我們可以根據想要使用的物價指數，有選擇性地進行挑選，而人們也越來越 → 挑選。現在我們有排除能源和食品的CPI，嗯，有一件事是
35:23
🎙️
of sense is to exclude the most volatile Goods so typically the CPI we we use what called core CPI which removes
有道理的是排除波動性最大的商品。因此，我們通常使用的CPI，被稱為核心CPI，它剔除了
35:30
🎙️
energy and food which are very volatile prices you don't want the thing to be moving all over the place but now we're
能源和食品，這兩種價格波動非常劇烈的項目。你不想讓這個指標到處跳動，但現在我們也
35:36
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also beginning to remove shelter because shelter inflation is very high and sticky and so on so so people can get to
開始剔除住房，因為住房通膨非常高且僵固，等等。所以人們可以
35:42
🎙️
be very selective but no matter how you look at the thing we have a problem okay that there's no way around that so
進行非常精確的選擇，但無論你如何看待這個問題，我們都存在一個問題，沒辦法迴避。
35:49
🎙️
that's the the way again we're not going to look we're going to talk a lot about this problem of course but we need to
這就是我們接下來要處理的方式。當然，我們將會花很多時間討論這個問題，但我們需要
35:56
🎙️
build tools and and we're going to get there in about nine lectures from now okay nine lectures from now we're going
建立工具，大約在九個課程後我們就能夠
36:02
🎙️
to be able to talk about what what is going on in with Ms I mean you can talk whenever you want but with
能夠談論MS中發生的事情。我的意思是，你想隨時都可以談論，但有了
36:08
🎙️
Ms okay so that those are the concepts I wanted to discuss today those are the definitions and relief that we got over
MS，好的，所以這些是我今天想要討論的概念，這些定義和我們涵蓋的內容
36:15
🎙️
this stuff let me just show you we have five minutes or so
這些東西，讓我向你展示一下，我們還有五分鐘左右。
36:20
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er equivalent numbers for other places around the world that's China okay
其他國家或地區的對等數據，例如中國，好的。
36:28
🎙️
that's China That's GDP growth for China and there are several things you can see from for this GDP series the first is
這是中國。這是中國的GDP增長，你可以從這個GDP序列中看到一些事情，首先是
36:36
🎙️
that it was very high this these numbers look a lot on average it's a lot higher than the US when I show you the US you
它的增長非常高。這些數字平均而言，遠高於美國，當我向你展示美國的數據時，你
36:42
🎙️
know the rate of growth was moving around 2% one and a half perc blah blah blah occasionally recessions and so on
會發現增長率在2%左右，一加一堆半的數字，偶爾會有衰退等等。
36:47
🎙️
this is China look you had you know numbers like 10% or so that's interesting we want to know why is that
這是中國，你看，有像10%左右的數字，這很有趣，我們想知道為什麼會有這種情況
36:55
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you can have so much difference in different countries okay and and that's what we're going to do in the third part
各個國家之間可能存在很大的差異，沒錯，這也是我們在課程的第三部分要探討的內容。
37:01
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of the course when we look at growth we're going to look at these kind of factors what can give you sustained rate
在課程的第三部分，當我們探討經濟成長時，我們會關注這類因素，看看什麼能帶來持續的成長率。
37:07
🎙️
of growth sustain I mean for a long period of time higher than in another country the the main factor just to
成長的持續性，我的意思是，在一段較長的時間內，比其他國家更高的成長率，主要因素僅僅是…
37:16
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preview what will happen is is H is simply that China was a lot poorer than the us at the beginning and when
預告一下接下來的狀況是，中國一開始比美國貧窮得多，而當
37:25
🎙️
you're poorer and you put your act together you can grow a lot faster than the rest now China is slowing down aside
你們比較貧窮，並且努力發展時，就能比其他國家成長得更快。現在中國正在放緩，撇開疫情不說，
37:33
🎙️
from covid it's very clear for quite some time that they have been worried because clearly GDP growth is
很明顯，他們已經擔心一段時間了，因為GDP成長率顯然正在
37:41
🎙️
declining okay and and and they're terrified about that and and and many of the things that are happening with China
下降，沒錯，他們對此感到非常恐慌，而且中國發生的許多事情
37:48
🎙️
have to do with the fear Associated to uh slow down in the rate of growth when they are still quite poor in per
都與對成長速度放緩的恐懼有關，尤其是在人均
37:58
🎙️
terms okay so that's a lot of what happens in China has to do with that if you look at Japan look at Japan
方面仍然相對貧窮的情況下。所以，發生在中國的許多事情都與此有關。如果你看看日本，看看日本
38:08
🎙️
Japan also grew very fast in the 60s okay you see this very fast rate of growth then it began to slow down and
日本在60年代也成長得非常迅速，沒錯，你看到非常快速的成長率，然後它開始放緩，並且
38:18
🎙️
pom here collapse they have a massive crash in the in in in financial markets equities and land the price of land was
泡沫破滅，他們在金融市場、股票和土地上經歷了巨大的崩潰。當時日本的土地價格
38:26
🎙️
enormous in Japan at this time it had a big Financial bubble you know for those of you that
非常龐大，日本存在一個巨大的金融泡沫，對於那些
38:31
🎙️
know Japan or if you don't know it doesn't matter there's a the Imperial Park in Tokyo which is a park that is
了解日本的人，或者不了解的人來說，這都不重要。東京的皇居外苑是一個公園，它
38:36
🎙️
much smaller than Central Park or whatever the value of that land at some point in time was the same as the value
比中央公園小得多，但某個時候，這塊土地的價值與整個加利福尼亞州的價值
38:42
🎙️
of the entire State of California okay that's the order of magnitude it was not for sale but you know in terms of
相同。沒錯，這個數字級別非常大。雖然它沒有出售，但你知道，就位置乘以價格而言，
38:49
🎙️
location times price but that's that bubble crash and since then Japan has never been able to recover its modu okay
地點乘以價格，但那正是泡沫破裂的時刻，從那以後日本就再也無法恢復其水準。
38:57
🎙️
it has been sort of growing at a very low rate for a very long period of time and one of the things that scares China
它的成長率一直很低迷，而且其中一件事讓中國感到擔憂，
39:04
🎙️
is that this may happen to them because this happened to Japan when they were already quite Rich Japan was pretty poor
也就是這可能發生在他們身上，因為這發生在日本，當時他們已經相當富裕，而日本戰後其實相當貧窮。
39:11
🎙️
after the war naturally and they grew very fast in the 60s but then they had this issue Financial bubble and so on
戰後自然而然地，他們在60年代成長非常迅速，但後來出現了金融泡沫等問題。
39:18
🎙️
they crashing had never been able to recover and China is worried that you know that this slowdown happens to them
崩潰之後，他們就再也無法復甦，而中國擔心這種經濟放緩會發生在他們身上，
39:25
🎙️
ER before they have acquire reached sort of the level of income per capita that Japan reach when that
在他們達到日本當年泡沫破裂時的人均收入水準之前。
39:34
🎙️
happened they common factors behind the two of them as well demographic factors demographics are very negative for both
發生在他們身上，其中共同的因素還有人口結構因素，人口結構對兩國來說都是非常不利的。
39:40
🎙️
of them and which naturally will slow down the rate of growth we're going to look at that later this is inflation in
對兩國來說都是非常不利的，這自然會減緩經濟增長的速度，我們稍後會詳細探討。接下來要講的是日本的通貨膨脹，
39:47
🎙️
Japan H you see sort of the most countries had high inflation around there because the the were the price of
日本的情況是，當時大多數國家都經歷了高通膨，因為石油價格…以及其他石油衝擊事件，所以通膨相當高，但日本的問題恰恰相反。
39:54
🎙️
oil they with massive oil shocks and so on so inflation was pretty high but the problem of Japan has been the opposite
石油價格波動劇烈等等，所以通膨相當高，但日本的問題恰恰相反，
40:01
🎙️
since the bubble crash in the late 80s early 990s they have had very low inflation
自從80年代末至90年代初泡沫破裂以來，他們經歷了非常低的通膨，
40:09
🎙️
H even deflation and that's been a big problem part of the reason why they have had so low growth is because they have
甚至出現了通貨緊縮，這一直是一個很大的問題，他們經濟成長率低迷的部分原因，在於他們
40:17
🎙️
been in this deflationary trap and then you something you will will look at later on in the course when when you
陷入了這種通縮陷阱，稍後在課程中我們會再詳細探討，
40:23
🎙️
have deflation it's pretty it's very difficult to use monetary policy to get out of a recession and that's the reason
當你處於通縮時，要利用貨幣政策擺脫衰退是非常困難的，這也是
40:30
🎙️
they keep getting a stack there so that's all I wanted to say for today and I'm relief again that this
他們一直無法擺脫困境的原因。所以今天我想說的就到這裡，再次鬆一口氣，這堂課終於結束了。在下一堂課中，我們將介紹第一個模型，也就是…
40:36
🎙️
lecture is behind us in the next lecture we're going to introduce the first model what we're going to look at is is H is
課程內容到這裡告一段落，下一堂課我們將介紹第一個模型，也就是如何決定均衡國民生產總值，以及它如何取決於各種因素…
40:43
🎙️
how to determine equilibrium GDP and how that depends on on the a variety of things including fiscal policy not
如何決定均衡 GDP，以及它如何取決於多種因素，包含財政政策，但並非貨幣政策。
40:51
🎙️
monetary policy that will happen later um but uh how scared you are consumers preferences and fears and so on so
貨幣政策將在之後討論。但重要的是，消費者有多麼恐懼、他們的偏好和擔憂等等。所以…
41:01
🎙️
that's the plan so unless there are any questions about this
這就是計畫。如果大家沒有問題，
41:07
🎙️
no so see you next Monday
好的，那我們下週一見。
