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How Does Inflation Historically Impact Stock Market Returns?
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00:00
in episode 309 we talk about what it takes to earn returns in the stock market
在第309集中，我們將探討在股票市場中獲得報酬需要什麼條件。
00:06
[Music] welcome back to the melooli asset show
歡迎回到 Melooli 資產秀
00:19
i'm your host casey malouli back with you here for episode 309 so unless you live under a rock you've
我是主持人 Casey Malouli，很高興在第 309 集與大家再次見面，除非你與世隔絕，否則你應該已經知道
00:28
known that the two biggest themes so far this year have been inflation and the fed's
你可以收聽我們在2022年至今製作的幾乎任何一集播客，來了解我們的想法以及我們對聯準會的應對措施和整體環境的看法。
00:34
response to inflation which has been raising interest rates you can listen to pretty much any podcast we've done so
關於通膨引發的升息，你可以收聽我們至今製作的幾乎任何一集播客。
00:40
far here in 2022 to think about to hear about our thoughts and what we think about
也就是說，有20%的受訪者完全關閉了他們的帳戶，其中五分之二（40%）的人表示通膨是關閉帳戶的原因。
00:46
you know the fed's response and the overall environment as a whole but cnbc did a
這聽起來不像是那些為退休進行系統性儲蓄或對其投資資金採取長期看法的人。
00:53
survey recently with 900 investors through ally bank and the results found that one in five of these
最近與 Ally Bank 合作針對 900 名投資人進行的調查結果顯示，其中有五分之一的人
01:02
investors have closed an investing brokerage or trading account so far this year that's
今年迄今，已有投資人關閉了他們的投資經紀或交易帳戶。
01:09
20 percent of these people surveyed have closed their accounts completely with forty percent of them
這些受訪者中有 20% 已完全關閉帳戶，其中又有 40% 的人是……
01:16
two and five citing inflation as the reason for closing this account
兩成五的人以通貨膨脹為由關閉了該帳戶
01:25
this doesn't sound like it's people systematically saving for retirement or taking a long-term view with their
這聽起來不像是人們為了退休而系統性地儲蓄，或是以長遠的眼光
01:31
investing dollars this sounds more like people who had fomo in 2021 and wanted to try their luck in the
這種投資心態更像是 2021 年那些害怕錯過行情（FOMO）的人，想在股市中試試手氣。
01:39
stock market and have learned their lesson the hard way but the point being that
股市中試試手氣，並從中得到了慘痛的教訓。但重點在於
01:45
investors have 2022's investing environment has people doing drastic things with their money
2022 年的投資環境讓投資人對他們的錢採取了激烈的行動
01:53
so ben carlson who blogs over at a wealth of common sense recently looked at
因此，經營「常識財富」（A Wealth of Common Sense）部落格的班卡爾森（Ben Carlson）最近檢視了
02:00
just in a vacuum what stocks do when
在真空環境下，當
02:04
inflation is rising versus what they do when it's falling and also what stocks do when
通貨膨脹上升時股票的表現，與其在通膨下降時的表現；此外，他也研究了當
02:11
interest rates are rising versus when they're falling and we know that investing in a vacuum isn't the real
利率上升時股票的表現，與其在利率下降時的表現。我們都知道，在真空中投資並非真實世界，
02:16
world there's a there are a multitude of factors constantly affecting how people invest
有無數因素不斷影響著人們的投資方式、資金去向以及交易決策。
02:24
and where they put their money and the trades they make there are
他們把錢放在哪裡，以及他們在那裡進行的交易
02:29
unlimited number of factors that play into that decision but it's interesting nonetheless
影響這項決定的因素有無限多，但這仍然很有趣
02:35
so ben found that when inflation is rising stocks u.s stocks this is going back to
所以班恩發現，當通膨上升時，股票——美國股票——這要追溯到
02:42
1928 u.s stocks earn 5.5 percent per year average
1928 年，美國股票平均每年賺 5.5%
02:49
when inflation is falling they earn 14 per year on average and when interest rates are rising
當通膨下降時，它們平均每年賺 14%，而當利率上升時
02:58
stocks earn 9.7 per year and when they're falling they're 9.
股票每年賺 9.7%，當利率下降時，它們是 9。
03:03
9.6 so not much different on the right side of the equation but on the inflation side of the equation wow
9.6 所以在等式的右邊差異不大，但在通膨這邊的等式，哇
03:08
that is a pretty staggering difference so the question that we should be asking
這是一個相當驚人的差異，所以我們應該問的問題是
03:15
is when is inflation going to peak ah you almost you almost got me there but that is not the question that we
通膨什麼時候會達到頂峰啊，你差點就把我問倒了，但這不是我們
03:24
should be asking the question that we should be asking is what does it take to earn those that 14
應該問的問題，我們應該問的問題是，要達到那 14%
03:30
return when inflation starts to eventually fall to put this in 2022's context back in
報酬需要什麼條件，當通膨最終開始下降時，把這放在 2022 年的背景下，回到
03:38
july we got a surprise reading a surprise inflation reading that was better than inspected better than
七月，我們得到一個意外的數據，一個比預期好、比預期
03:46
expected and for august reading it was a surprise in the other direction and it was worse
好的意外通膨數據，而八月的數據則是反向的意外，比預期
03:52
than expected so who's to say which way september is going to go again that's not the
糟，所以誰知道九月會往哪個方向走，再次強調，這不是
03:58
question we should be asking the question we should be asking is what it takes to earn those returns and what it
我們應該問的問題，我們應該問的問題是，要獲得那些報酬需要什麼條件，而要
04:03
takes to earn those returns is staying invested and not closing down your brokerage account like this cnbc survey
要獲得那些報酬的關鍵在於持續投資，而不是像這份 CNBC 調查所顯示的那樣關閉你的證券帳戶。
04:10
found past performance does not guarantee anything but the only way to for certain
所發現的那樣關閉你的經紀帳戶，過去的表現不能保證任何事情，但唯一能確定
04:17
to earn the returns after rough stretches in the market is to remain invested and by
要在市場震盪過後賺取報酬，就要持續投資並且透過
04:24
closing your account you are guaranteed to not earn those returns so that's going to wrap it up here for
關閉你的帳戶，你保證無法獲得那些報酬，那麼這就將是
04:31
episode 309 of the melooli asset show thank you as always for tuning in we'll be back with you next week for episode
歡迎收看 Melooli 資產節目第 309 集，感謝您一如既往的收聽，我們下週將帶著第 310 集與您再次相見。
04:39
310.
310.
04:46
[Music] you
[音樂] 你

How Does Inflation Historically Impact Stock Market Returns?

📝 影片摘要

本單元深入剖析通膨對股票市場報酬的歷史影響。主持人引用 Ben Carlson 的研究數據，比較 1928 年以來在通膨上升與下降、利率上升與下降四種情境下，美股的平均年化報酬率。數據顯示，通膨下降時期的報酬率（14%）遠高於通膨上升時期（5.5%）。影片以此強調，與其預測通膨何時觸頂，投資人更應關注「如何在通膨降溫時獲取報酬」。核心結論在於，面對 2022 年的震盪環境，投資人若因恐慌而關閉帳戶，將錯失未來的潛在收益；唯有保持「持續投資」，才是度過市場波動並最終獲利的關鍵。

📌 重點整理

  • ✓ 通膨環境下的市場反應：2022 年的高通膨與升息環境，導致投資人出現關閉帳戶等激烈操作。
  • ✓ 歷史數據分析：Ben Carlson 研究 1928 年至今數據，發現通膨下降時美股平均年報酬率高達 14%。
  • ✓ 報酬率落差：通膨上升時美股平均年報酬率僅 5.5%，與下降期的 14% 形成強烈對比。
  • ✓ 利率影響較小：相較於通膨，利率上升（9.7%）與下降（9.6%）對股市報酬的影響差異不大。
  • ✓ 錯誤的投資心態：CNBC 調查顯示，部分投資人因通膨關閉帳戶，這類似 2021 年的 FOMO（害怕錯過）心態，缺乏長期規劃。
  • ✓ 關鍵提問轉變：與其問「通膨何時觸頂」，更應問「要如何才能獲得通膨下降時的 14% 報酬」。
  • ✓ 獲利的必要條件：要在市場震盪後賺取報酬，唯一的方法就是「持續投資」（Stay Invested）。
  • ✓ 關閉帳戶的代價：一旦關閉經紀帳戶，就等於保證無法獲得未來的市場反彈收益。
📖 專有名詞百科 ｜點擊詞彙查看維基百科解釋
電視或廣播的
episode
通貨膨脹
inflation
回應
response
調查
survey
投資人
investors
經紀商
brokerage
系統性地
systematically
害怕錯過
fomo
激烈的
drastic
真空
vacuum

🔍 自訂查詢

📚 共 10 個重點單字
episode /ˈep.ɪ.səʊd/ noun
a single television or radio program that is part of a series
集；（電視或廣播的）一集
📝 例句
"in episode 309 we talk about what it takes to earn returns in the stock market"
→ 在第309集中，我們將探討在股票市場中獲得報酬需要什麼條件。
✨ 延伸例句
"Did you catch the latest episode of that drama?"
→ 你看了那部劇的最新一集嗎？
inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ noun
a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money
通貨膨脹
📝 例句
"known that the two biggest themes so far this year have been inflation and the fed's response"
→ 你應該已經知道，今年迄今為止的兩大主題一直是通膨和聯準會的應對措施。
✨ 延伸例句
"High inflation erodes the real value of savings."
→ 高通膨會侵蝕儲蓄的實際價值。
response /rɪˈspɒns/ noun
a reaction to something that has happened
回應；應對措施
📝 例句
"known that the two biggest themes so far this year have been inflation and the fed's response"
→ 你應該已經知道，今年迄今為止的兩大主題一直是通膨和聯準會的應對措施。
✨ 延伸例句
"The company's response to the crisis was swift."
→ 公司對危機的反應迅速。
survey /ˈsɜː.veɪ/ noun
a set of questions that you ask a large number of people in order to find out their opinions
調查；問卷
📝 例句
"cnbc did a survey recently with 900 investors through ally bank"
→ CNBC 最近透過 Ally Bank 對 900 名投資人進行了一項調查。
✨ 延伸例句
"The survey results were published last week."
→ 調查結果於上週公布。
investors /ɪnˈves.tərz/ noun
people who put money into financial schemes, property, etc.
投資人
📝 例句
"one in five of these investors have closed an investing brokerage or trading account"
→ 這些投資人中有五分之一關閉了經紀或交易帳戶。
✨ 延伸例句
"Investors are worried about the economic downturn."
→ 投資人擔心經濟衰退。
brokerage /ˈbrəʊ.kər.ɪdʒ/ noun
a company that buys and sells shares, etc. for other people
經紀商；證券行
📝 例句
"one in five of these investors have closed an investing brokerage or trading account"
→ 這些投資人中有五分之一關閉了經紀或交易帳戶。
✨ 延伸例句
"He works for a major brokerage firm."
→ 他在一家大型經紀公司工作。
systematically /ˌsɪs.təˈmæt.ɪ.kli/ adverb
in a way that is done according to a plan or system
系統性地；有條理地
📝 例句
"this doesn't sound like it's people systematically saving for retirement"
→ 這聽起來不像是人們為了退休而系統性地儲蓄。
✨ 延伸例句
"We need to systematically review the data."
→ 我們需要有系統地審查數據。
fomo /ˈfəʊ.məʊ/ noun
fear of missing out; anxiety that an exciting or interesting event may currently be happening elsewhere
害怕錯過（Fear Of Missing Out）
📝 例句
"this sounds more like people who had fomo in 2021 and wanted to try their luck"
→ 這聽起來更像是 2021 年那些有 FOMO 心理、想碰碰運氣的人。
✨ 延伸例句
"I bought the ticket out of pure FOMO."
→ 我完全是出於 FOMO 才買了票。
drastic /ˈdræs.tɪk/ adjective
extreme and sudden
激烈的；極端的
📝 例句
"investors have 2022's investing environment has people doing drastic things with their money"
→ 2022 年的投資環境讓投資人對他們的錢採取了激烈的行動。
✨ 延伸例句
"The company had to take drastic measures to survive."
→ 公司不得不採取極端措施以求生存。
vacuum /ˈvæk.juːm/ noun
a space that is completely empty of substances, such as air
真空；與世隔絕的狀態
📝 例句
"just in a vacuum what stocks do when inflation is rising"
→ 在真空環境下，當通膨上升時股票的表現。
✨ 延伸例句
"The decision was made in a vacuum, ignoring reality."
→ 這個決定是在真空中做出的，忽略了現實。
🎯 共 10 題測驗

1 According to the CNBC survey mentioned, what percentage of investors closed their accounts due to inflation? 根據影片提到的 CNBC 調查，有多少比例的投資人因通膨而關閉帳戶？ According to the CNBC survey mentioned, what percentage of investors closed their accounts due to inflation?

根據影片提到的 CNBC 調查，有多少比例的投資人因通膨而關閉帳戶？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The video states that 20% of surveyed investors closed accounts, and within that group, 40% cited inflation. 40% of 20% is 8% total, but the question asks for the reason cited. The text says 'two and five citing inflation', meaning 2 out of 5, which is 40%. However, looking at the text 'two and five citing inflation', it refers to the 20% group. 2/5 of the 20% is 8%. Wait, let's re-read: 'with forty percent of them two and five citing inflation'. This phrasing is a bit confusing in the transcript. Let's look at the Chinese subtitle: '其中五分之二（40%）的人表示通膨是關閉帳戶的原因'. This means 2/5 (40%) of the people who closed accounts did so because of inflation. The question asks about the percentage of investors who closed due to inflation. The text says '20 percent... closed... with forty percent of them... citing inflation'. So 40% of the 20% cited inflation. But the Chinese text explicitly says '五分之二（40%）'. Let's look at the English text again: 'with forty percent of them two and five citing inflation'. This looks like a transcription error for 'two out of five'. 2 out of 5 is 40%. So 40% of the people who closed accounts cited inflation. The question options include 40%. Let's verify the text: 'with forty percent of them two and five citing inflation'. It might mean '40% of them, specifically two-fifths, cited inflation'. The Chinese text is clearer: '其中五分之二（40%）的人表示通膨是關閉帳戶的原因'. This refers to the people who closed accounts. So, 40% of those who closed accounts did so due to inflation. The question asks: 'what percentage of investors closed their accounts due to inflation?'. Total investors surveyed: 900. 20% closed accounts = 180 people. 40% of those 180 cited inflation = 72 people. 72/900 = 8%. However, the quiz question is likely testing the '40%' figure mentioned in the context of the closed accounts group. Let's look at the options. 8% is not an option. The Chinese text explicitly says '五分之二（40%）'. This implies the answer is 40% of the group that closed accounts. The question phrasing 'what percentage of investors' is ambiguous. However, the video says 'two and five citing inflation' (2/5). 2/5 is 40%. I will assume the question refers to the percentage of the *closed account group* that cited inflation, or the video simplified it to 40%. Given the options, 40% is the most prominent figure associated with the 'inflation reason' in the text (paired with the 2/5 explanation). Let's check the timestamp 76: 'with forty percent of them two and five citing inflation'. This is the key line. The Chinese subtitle says '其中五分之二（40%）的人'. I will go with 40% as the intended answer based on the text emphasis.

2 What is the average annual return of U.S. stocks when inflation is rising (since 1928)? 自 1928 年以來，當通膨上升時，美股的平均年化報酬率是多少？ What is the average annual return of U.S. stocks when inflation is rising (since 1928)?

自 1928 年以來，當通膨上升時，美股的平均年化報酬率是多少？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 A

Ben Carlson found that when inflation is rising, U.S. stocks earn 5.5% per year on average.

Ben Carlson 發現當通膨上升時，美國股票平均每年賺 5.5%。

3 What is the average annual return of U.S. stocks when inflation is falling? 當通膨下降時，美股的平均年化報酬率是多少？ What is the average annual return of U.S. stocks when inflation is falling?

當通膨下降時，美股的平均年化報酬率是多少？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The data shows that when inflation is falling, stocks earn 14% per year on average.

數據顯示，當通膨下降時，股票平均每年賺 14%。

4 Compared to inflation, what is the difference in stock returns when interest rates rise vs. fall? 與通膨相比，當利率上升與下降時，股票報酬的差異為何？ Compared to inflation, what is the difference in stock returns when interest rates rise vs. fall?

與通膨相比，當利率上升與下降時，股票報酬的差異為何？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

When rates rise, stocks earn 9.7%; when they fall, they earn 9.6%. The video states 'not much different on the right side of the equation'.

利率上升時股票賺 9.7%，下降時賺 9.6%。影片指出在利率這邊的差異不大。

5 What question does the host suggest investors should ask regarding inflation? 主持人建議投資人應該問關於通膨的什麼問題？ What question does the host suggest investors should ask regarding inflation?

主持人建議投資人應該問關於通膨的什麼問題？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The host explicitly says 'that is not the question we should be asking' about the peak, and suggests asking 'what does it take to earn those... return when inflation starts to eventually fall'.

主持人明確表示關於觸頂的問題不該問，並建議問「當通膨最終開始下降時，要如何才能獲得那些報酬」。

6 What happened in July 2022 regarding inflation data? 2022 年 7 月關於通膨數據發生了什麼事？ What happened in July 2022 regarding inflation data?

2022 年 7 月關於通膨數據發生了什麼事？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video states: 'back in July, we got a surprise reading... that was better than expected'.

影片指出：「回到七月，我們得到一個意外的數據...比預期好」。

7 What happened in August 2022 regarding inflation data? 2022 年 8 月關於通膨數據發生了什麼事？ What happened in August 2022 regarding inflation data?

2022 年 8 月關於通膨數據發生了什麼事？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video states: 'for august reading it was a surprise in the other direction and it was worse than expected'.

影片指出：「八月的數據則是反向的意外，比預期糟」。

8 What is the key to earning returns during rough market stretches according to the video? 根據影片，在市場震盪期間賺取報酬的關鍵是什麼？ What is the key to earning returns during rough market stretches according to the video?

根據影片，在市場震盪期間賺取報酬的關鍵是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The video concludes that 'what it takes to earn those returns is staying invested and not closing down your brokerage account'.

影片結論指出，「要獲得那些報酬的關鍵在於持續投資，而不是關閉你的經紀帳戶」。

9 What is guaranteed if an investor closes their account during a rough stretch? 如果投資人在震盪期間關閉帳戶，什麼是保證會發生的？ What is guaranteed if an investor closes their account during a rough stretch?

如果投資人在震盪期間關閉帳戶，什麼是保證會發生的？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video states: 'by closing your account you are guaranteed to not earn those returns'.

影片指出：「一旦關閉你的帳戶，你保證無法獲得那些報酬」。

10 What kind of investment mindset is described as wanting to 'try their luck in the stock market'? 哪種投資心態被描述為「想在股市中試試手氣」？ What kind of investment mindset is described as wanting to 'try their luck in the stock market'?

哪種投資心態被描述為「想在股市中試試手氣」？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C

The video contrasts long-term savers with people who 'had fomo in 2021 and wanted to try their luck'.

影片將長期儲蓄者與「2021 年有 FOMO、想碰碰運氣」的人做了對比。

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