00:01
great news for stock market investors and people in the United States in general as on Wednesday January 15 2025
對股市投資人以及美國民眾來說，這是個大好消息，因為在 2025 年 1 月 15 日星期三
00:10
the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation numbers for the month of December that were better than expected
勞工統計局公布了 12 月份的通膨數據，結果優於預期
00:18
so in this video I'm going to look at the details of that report and what it could mean for stock market investors
因此在這支影片中，我將深入解析這份報告的細節，以及它對股市投資人可能意味著什麼
00:25
let's take a look I quickly wanted to let everyone know about this great off offer for my channel members at the
讓我們來看看。我想先快速告訴大家這個限時優惠，適用於我頻道的
00:31
investor tier you can gain access to my spreadsheet containing my ratings on over 130 stocks I update this
投資者（Investor）會員等級。您可以存取我的試算表，裡面包含我對超過 130 檔股票的評級。我會在
00:40
spreadsheet with multiple times and multiple changes per day Monday through Friday additionally channel members at
週一至週五期間，每天多次更新這份試算表並進行多項調整。此外，投資者等級的頻道會員
00:48
the investor tier can get access to my spreadsheet with my discounted cash flow valuations and I update this spreadsheet
還可以存取我另一份包含折現現金流（DCF）估值的試算表，我會每週多次更新這份試算表
00:56
multiple times per week with multiple new companies added to this spreadsheet with discounted cash flow valuations
並在其中新增多家進行過折現現金流估值的公司
01:03
there's already dozens on the spreadsheet available now you can get all this plus Early Access videos plus
目前試算表上已有數十家公司。現在加入，您就能獲得以上所有內容，外加搶先看影片、
01:12
member exclusive videos plus priority response to comments All for less than $15 per month so what are you waiting
會員獨家影片，以及留言優先回覆權，所有福利每月不到 15 美元。那麼您還在等什麼？
01:20
for hit that join button below and start experiencing the benefits all right so the Consumer Price Index for all
點擊下方的加入按鈕，開始享受這些好處吧。好的，那麼 12 月份所有消費者的消費者物價指數（CPI）
01:28
consumers increased by 0.
上漲了 0.4%
01:33
4% in December after rising 0.3% in November over the last 12 months the all items index
在 11 月上漲 0.3% 之後。過去 12 個月來，整體物價指數
01:38
increased 2.9% before adjustments but more importantly the majority of the increase
在調整前上漲了 2.9%。但更重要的是，這次漲幅中的
01:46
well I shouldn't say majority but over 40% of the increase was due to Rising Energy prices which rose by 2.6% in
嗯，我不該說「大部分」，但超過 40% 的漲幅是來自於能源價格上漲，其在 12 月上漲了 2.6%，
01:55
December which means that everything else didn't increase by all that much it was a blip because of the increase in
這意味著其他項目的漲幅並沒有那麼大。這只是因為 12 月能源價格上漲而出現的短暫波動，
02:04
Energy prices in December because of increasing sanctions on oil producing countries uh like Russia and so the
原因是針對俄羅斯等產油國的制裁增加。因此，
02:13
Federal Reserve the Central Bank in the United States tends to overlook these fluctuations in energy and food prices
美國的中央銀行——聯準會（Federal Reserve），往往會忽略這些能源和食品價格的波動，
02:22
because they tend to be more volatile than other prices of things like um
因為它們通常比其他像是
02:28
Services haircuts airplanes things like that so this is important because the Federal Reserve the Central Bank in the
服務、理髮、飛機等商品的價格波動更大。這點很重要，因為聯準會（中央銀行）在...
02:38
United States had started cutting interest rates because inflation was really trending lower you can see this
美國已開始降息，因為通膨確實正在降溫，你可以看到這張圖表
02:46
chart here for inflation going back to December of 2023 you can see after
顯示自2023年12月以來的通膨走勢，你可以看到在
02:52
peaking in about February or March of 2023 uh you I'm sorry 202 24 you can see
2023年2月或3月左右達到高峰後，抱歉，是2024年，你可以看到
03:01
inflation trending lower for three consecutive quarters uh three consecutive months from 0.4 to 0.3 to 0
通膨連續三個季度呈下降趨勢，連續三個月從0.4降至0.3再到0
03:10
to negative 0.1 and this was happening while job growth was slowing down and so this gave
甚至到負0.1，而這是在就業增長放緩的同時發生的，因此這讓
03:18
the Federal Reserve confidence that they can start lowering interest rates because they've held interest rates at a
聯準會有信心可以開始降息，因為他們已將利率維持在
03:27
high enough level that's restricting e economic activity the Central Bank feels like there is a number and interest rate
足以限制經濟活動的高點，央行認為存在一個利率數字
03:37
and the estimates are somewhere around 3% that will not add fuel to the economy and it also won't restrict the economy
估計約在3%左右，這個利率既不會為經濟火上澆油，也不會限制經濟
03:46
that's what they call the neutral rate or the rate that doesn't increase economic activity or decrease economic
這就是他們所稱的中性利率，也就是不會增加也不會減少經濟活動的利率
03:53
activity when interest rates are higher than that number which they are now it's restricting EC economic activity and the
當利率高於這個數字時（目前就是如此），就會限制經濟活動，而
04:01
Central Bank does that when they feel like inflation is a problem when they feel that inflation could get out of
央行這樣做是當他們認為通膨是個問題，當他們覺得通膨可能失控時
04:09
control so they raise interest rates so that they can restrict economic activity and the way it restricts economic
所以他們提高利率來限制經濟活動，而它限制經濟活動的方式是
04:15
activity is because people going out to buy things that are financed are seeing a higher monthly payment so they're less
因為人們外出購買需要融資的東西時，會看到更高的每月付款，所以他們較
04:24
interested in buying it things like homes and cars right you have a mortgage payment and a car car payment that's
不有興趣購買，像是房子和車子，對吧，你的房貸付款和車貸付款
04:31
directly connected to the interest rates in the economy and when those interest rates are higher it incrementally makes
直接與經濟中的利率掛鉤，當這些利率較高時，會逐漸讓
04:39
it more expensive to buy those things and so you buy less of those things and that creates uh a decrease in economic
購買這些東西的成本更高，所以你會買得更少，這就造成了經濟活動
04:47
activity which then brings down inflation because you're not going out and competing to buy those things and so
的減少，進而使通膨下降，因為你不會出去競爭購買這些東西，所以
04:54
the merchants need to lower their prices in order to sell those things and it's the opposite it when interest rates are
商家需要降價才能賣出這些東西，反之亦然，當利率
05:00
lower more people are interested in buying stuff and then those Merchants can feel confident in raising their
較低時，更多人有興趣購買東西，然後這些商家就能有信心提高
05:08
prices which they have been doing over the last three or four years and so that's causing inflation but look at the
價格，他們在過去三、四年來一直是這樣做的，所以這導致了通膨，但看看這個
05:15
worrying Trend here in the last couple of months in November inflation ticked up to 0.3% and now December
在最近幾個月出現令人擔憂的趨勢，11月通膨上升至0.3%，而現在12月
05:23
0.4% and so that's why you've heard Federal Reserve and Central Bankers when they go out and make speeches and even
是0.4%，這就是為什麼你會聽到聯準會和央行官員在發表言論時，甚至
05:30
in their last meeting they said that they were going to pause lowering interest rates because now they feel
在他們上一次會議中表示，他們打算暫停降息，因為他們現在覺得
05:37
that they lowered interest rates a little too much because it spurred enough economic activity to cause an
他們降息降得有點太多了，因為這刺激了足夠的經濟活動，導致
05:45
increase in inflation and part of that they blame on the recent results in the United States election and the policies
通膨上升，他們將部分原因歸咎於美國最近的選舉結果以及
05:54
that President elect Donald Trump proposes to implement which could be inflationary I made a video about that
當選總統唐納·川普提議實施的政策，這些政策可能會引發通膨。我拍了一部關於這個的影片，
06:02
I'll link to it at the end of this one you can make those connections between the policy proposals and potential
我會在這支影片結尾附上連結，你可以將這些政策提案與潛在的
06:10
inflation and so the numbers from today because the major the large percentage of the increase was from energy is
通膨聯繫起來。因此，今天的數據，因為增長的很大一部分來自能源，
06:19
likely to give Central Bankers a little bit of ease a little bit of calm about inflation
可能會讓央行官員對通膨問題稍微放心一點，稍微安心一點。
06:28
troubles and so there was comments made that this new inflation number won't change expectations for a pause later
因此，有評論指出，這個新的通膨數字不會改變本月稍晚暫停升息的預期，
06:35
this month but it should curb some of the talk about the FED potentially raising interest rates Ellen zetner who
但它應該會平息一些關於聯準會可能升息的討論。摩根士丹利財富管理的首席經濟策略師艾倫·辛特納（Ellen Zetner）在談到今天的
06:43
is the chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley wealth management said talking about these results today
結果時表示，因為之前有討論指出聯準會可能需要升息來對抗這個不斷上升的通膨
06:49
because there was discussion that the FED might need to raise interest rates to combat this Rising inflationary
問題，他們不想再次面對同樣的狀況，他們不希望讓通膨失控，所以今天的
06:57
problem again they don't want to face the same issue they don't want to let inflation get out of control so today's
數字在一定程度上緩解了這些擔憂，這就是為什麼你可以理解股市對此
07:02
number kind of eased those concerns and that's why you can understand the stock market reacted very positively to this
消息反應非常積極。標普500指數上漲了1.75個百分點，而QQQ指數
07:11
news the S&P 500 was up by 1 and 3/4 percentage points and the QQQ index was
上漲了超過2.2個百分點，債券殖利率下降，羅素2000指數也上漲，加密貨幣價格
07:18
up by over 2.2 percentage points bond yields were down the Russell 2000 Index was also up cryptocurrency prices were
上漲，投資者的風險偏好有所上升，投資者的興趣也有所增加，以下是原因：
07:28
up there were was an increasing risk appetite there was an increasing interest from investors and here's why
通膨對投資者來說之所以重要，完全是關於購買力。所以如果你有
07:34
inflation is important for investors it's all about purchasing power so if you have
100美元，想想第一年，你的100美元，假設你正在購買
07:40
$100 and you think about the first year your $100 uh let's say you're buying
100美元，想想第一年，你的100美元，假設你正在購買
07:47
something that is priced at $5 you can buy 20 of those things so your purchasing power can get you 20 of those
定價為5美元的東西，你可以買20個，所以你的購買力可以讓你買到20個那樣的東西
07:55
widgets at $5 but if there's inflation in year two and you still have $100 and now the price of that item
價格5美元的小工具，但如果第二年發生通貨膨脹，你仍然有100美元，而現在那項商品的
08:04
Rises to $10 you can only buy 10 of those things so while you still have $100 your purchasing power has been cut
價格上漲到10美元，你只能買10個那樣的東西，所以雖然你仍然有100美元，但你的購買力已經被削減了
08:13
in half right you might think well I didn't risk my money I put it under the mattress I'm safe I still have
一半，對吧？你可能會想，我沒有冒險，我把錢放在床墊下，我很安全，我仍然有
08:20
$100 yeah but your wealth was cut in half because of inflation you could only buy 10 of those things and now in year
100美元，沒錯，但你的財富因為通貨膨脹而縮水了一半，你只能買10個那樣的東西，而現在在第三年
08:27
three if inflation Rises to $20 I mean if the price of that item Rises to 20 you can only buy five of those and so
如果通貨膨脹導致價格上漲到20美元，我是說如果那項商品的價格上漲到20，你只能買五個，所以
08:35
you've experienced in these three years a 75% loss in purchasing power and so inflation impacts your
你在這三年裡經歷了75%的購買力損失，因此通貨膨脹會直接影響你的
08:43
wealth directly because of your purchasing power that's something that many individuals neglect when they're
財富，因為它影響你的購買力，這是許多人在
08:51
making decisions about whether to invest in stocks or bonds or to just keep their money under the mattress if you keep
決定是要投資股票或債券，還是要把錢放在床墊下時所忽略的。如果你把
08:57
your money under the mattress you're almost guaranteed to lose because every year there will be there's very likely
錢放在床墊下，你幾乎是注定要虧損的，因為每年都會有，很可能會有
09:05
to be inflation and you're going to lose the purchasing power of your money guaranteed at least if you put it into
通貨膨脹，而你將會損失金錢的購買力，這是注定的。至少如果你把錢投入
09:12
bonds or stocks you're giving yourself a chance to beat inflation and the reason stock markets rise when inflation is
債券或股票，你給了自己一個戰勝通貨膨脹的機會。而當通貨膨脹下滑時，股市之所以上漲，
09:21
moving downward especially when inflation is a bigger risk is because now investors feel more confident about
尤其是在通膨風險較大時，是因為現在投資者對他們的
09:28
their purchasing power so if they felt that if investors in the stock market felt that inflation was ballooning out
購買力更有信心。所以，如果股票市場的投資者覺得通貨膨脹正失控地
09:36
of control they would want a higher return on their investment they would require a higher return on their
惡性膨脹，他們會要求更高的投資回報率，他們會需要更高的投資
09:43
investment just to make up for the loss in purchasing power and then on top of that they would want an additional rate
回報，才能彌補購買力的損失，然後除此之外，他們還會希望有額外的
09:50
of return to compensate for the risk that they are taking but when inflation is decreasing the risk appetite for
報酬率來補償他們所承擔的風險。但當通貨膨脹下降時，對這些
09:57
these Investments increase in and so the values of these Investments increase there's a certain type of investment
投資的風險承受度會增加，因此這些投資的價值也會增加。有一種特定類型的投資
10:04
that benefits When the inflation is increasing and these are invest Investments of real assets things like
會在通貨膨脹增加時受益，那就是實質資產的投資，像是
10:13
Farmland timber land um uh some uh type of real estate because the replacement
農地、林地，嗯，某些類型的房地產，因為其重置成本會...
10:21
cost of those assets increases as inflation increases these things are more directly correlated with inflation
這些資產的成本會隨著通膨上升而增加，這些東西與通膨的相關性更直接
10:30
and so when inflation Rises the price of this asset or the value of these assets also rise they're more directly
因此當通膨上升時，這些資產的價格或價值也會上升，它們的關聯性更直接
10:37
connected whereas if you own a Government Bond that's not inflation inflation protected some government
相反地，如果你持有的是沒有通膨保護的政府公債——有些政府公債是有通膨保護的，稱為通膨保值公債（TIPS）——但除此之外，如果你
10:43
bonds are inflation protected they're called treasury inflation protected securities but outside of that if you
持有的是提供5%報酬率的政府公債，而通膨剛好是6%，那麼你的財富就在縮水
10:50
own a Government Bond that's giving you 5% rate of return and inflation happens to be 6% then you're losing wealth and
因此當你擔心通膨時，你對這類投資的興趣就會降低，這也是為什麼你今天看到
10:57
so you're less interested in those typ typ of Investments when you're concerned about inflation and that's why you saw
公債殖利率大幅下降，原因是通膨數據，因為公債投資人對他們的
11:04
today bond yields fell considerably as a result of the inflation number because Bond investors felt confident that the
公債報酬率不會被通膨侵蝕太多感到有信心。好的，我希望這
11:13
rate of return on their bonds was not going to be eroded as much by inflation all right so I hope that
能稍微解釋今天的通膨數據以及它如何與股市連結
11:22
explains a little bit about today's inflation number and how it connects to the stock market
如果你喜歡剛剛看到的影片，而且想看更多類似的內容，請訂閱這個頻道。沒有像您這樣觀眾的支持，我無法讓
11:29
if you like the video you just saw and you want to see more just like it please subscribe to the channel I can't keep
這個頻道保持免費。如果您已經訂閱，謝謝您，我非常感謝
11:35
this Channel free without the support of viewers like you and if you're already subscribed thank you and I appreciate
您的支持
11:42
your support
您的支持
