00:00
[Music] hello welcome back to Diamond's Edge my
[音樂] 大家好，歡迎回到 Diamond's Edge，我是 Greg Diamond，Sandsbury Research 的 10 Stock Trader 編輯。
00:10
name is Greg Diamond editor of 10 Stock Trader at sandsbury research and this week we're going to look at interest
本週我們將探討利率，隨著 CPI（消費者物價指數）和 PPI（生產者物價指數）即將公佈，這些顯然是衡量通膨的重要指標，
00:17
rates with uh the CPI coming out PPI coming out obviously important gauges of inflation which is going to lead to what
這將決定聯準會（Federal Reserve）可能採取或不採取的行動，進而反映出股市的走勢。
00:25
the Federal Reserve may or may not do uh and then in turn how that reflects what the stock market will do okay we're
好的，我們將回顧在強勁的上升趨勢中，超買水位是如何被消化的。
00:32
going to look at how we've seen overbought levels work off within a strong uptrend um we have seen some
我們確實看到了一些波動，但我將比較利率與股票之間的關係，並向各位說明我在未來幾週的觀察重點。
00:39
volatility but I'm going to compare the two between interest rates and stocks um and kind of show you what I'm looking at
好的，讓我們開始吧。這是一張美國 10 年期利率的圖表，首先我想指出，
00:45
over the next few weeks okay so let's jump into it this is a chart of the US 10-year interest rate and first I want
自今年初以來我一直討論的短期時間因素。
00:53
to point out you know kind of the short-term uh time factors that I've been discussing really since the start
你可以看到這裡，2 月 14 日實際上標記了一個高點，然後我們下跌，接著在 3 月 8 日，
01:00
of the year and you can see here this February 14th actually marked a high and then we we dropped down and then March
也就是我們交易 AMD（超微）的時候，標記了利率的一個低點，然後我們看到利率回升。
01:07
8th which is where we traded um Advanced Micro Devices this marked a a low interest rates and we saw this pop up
並非所有股票對利率上升的反應都一樣，正如我接下來要展示的，
01:15
now not all stocks are reacting similarly to um interest rates rising and as I'll show you next uh you know
儘管利率正在上升，但股票實際上已經消化了超買狀況。
01:24
stocks have actually worked off overball conditions despite the fact that interest rates are rising okay so let's
好的，讓我們看看現在的情況。這張圖表是我過去兩週左右為訂閱戶製作的，
01:30
see what we have here now and um this is a chart that I put together for subscribers over the last two weeks or
基本上我正在展望未來，我在這裡列出了接下來的時間因素，
01:38
so and basically what I'm doing is I'm I'm looking forward to what's next and I have the next set of time factors here
一直到五月。但你可以看到，在接下來的幾天內，隨著 CPI 和 PPI 的公佈，
01:44
really all the way out into May um but you can see here over the next few days with CPI and PPI coming um into play you
利率將如何反應？我不會坐在這裡告訴你通膨會變高還是變低，
01:52
know how are stock how it interest rates going to react now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that inflation is
關鍵在於我們是否會看到兩端出現巨大的異常值。
01:58
going to be higher or lower what really comes down to is are we going to see a big outlier either way um if it
如果數據持續接近預估值，那可能沒什麼大不了的。
02:05
continues to come in around estimates that's probably not going to be that big of a deal um and my guess is that you
我猜投資者可能會看著它說，其實沒那麼糟，
02:11
know um investors in the stock market will probably look at it and says you know what it's really not that bad um
這很可能就是一個買進機會。
02:18
which would be probably most likely be a buying opportunity okay but even if we do get some spikes up here um I want to
但即使我們在這裡看到一些飆升，我希望...
02:25
show you uh what's a symmetrical move that is POS possible okay so we can measure this move here and then add it
向您展示一個可能出現的對稱走勢，我們可以測量這段走勢，然後將其加到這裡
02:34
to here so again you know we could pop up um a little bit higher interest rates you can see this resistance L is here
所以再次地，您知道利率可能會小幅回升，您可以看到這裡的阻力位 L
02:41
and then we have the symmetrical move so we could see something like this happen where we get a high this week in
然後我們會有一個對稱走勢，所以我們可能會看到這樣的情況：本週利率達到高點
02:46
interest rates and then we start to trade lower well guess what that's probably going to tell you that stocks
然後開始走低，您猜怎麼著？這可能告訴您股票
02:51
are actually a buy here all right and then on down low on the bottom here look how the composite
在這裡其實是個買點。然後在底部這裡，看看綜合指數
02:57
index the um lower level right here is actually starting to make a um a a lower high and you know even
這個較低的水平，實際上正在形成一個較低的高點，您知道嗎，即使
03:06
though the RSI is is rallying into overbought levels okay so basically my point here is let's say interest rates
RSI 正在反彈並進入超買區。所以基本上我的觀點是，假設利率
03:14
we get one more pop whether it's CPI or PPI or another inflation data point perhaps fed speak who knows okay the
再來一次飆升，不管是 CPI、PPI 或是另一個通膨數據，或許是聯準會官員的發言，谁知道呢。好吧，
03:21
point is is that you know if we get a rally into uh resistance levels then we look to the um indicators that tell us
重點是，如果我們反彈到阻力位，那麼我們就看看指標，它們會告訴我們
03:30
hey you know what this is probably a little bit overbought here and then we then we we trade lower all right so
嘿，您知道嗎，這裡可能有點超買了，然後我們就轉向做空。所以
03:36
that's that's what I'm looking at in terms of interest rates now let's compare this to what's happening in
這就是我目前對利率走勢的看法。現在讓我們將其與股票市場的狀況做個比較
03:42
stocks okay I'm going to keep this very simple with the S&P 500 all right and the first thing again I I mentioned it
好嗎？我會用 S&P 500 來做個簡單的說明。首先，我一開始就提到過
03:49
at the start is the overbought conditions okay we had I I was pointing out all this Divergence that we had but
就是超買狀況。我當時指出了所有的背離現象，但是
03:56
stocks never really broke all they really did was they traded within support yeah we saw you again around
股票從未真正跌破，它們實際上只是在支撐區間內波動。是的，您再次看到在
04:02
that February 14th date you know February 12 13th we saw huge volatility we saw another drop you know here was
大約 2 月 14 日那陣子，您知道 2 月 12、13 日，我們看到了巨大的波動，我們看到了另一次下跌，您知道 3 月 8 日
04:08
March 8th where you know a stock like AMD or Nvidia um you know some of the other high-flying tech stocks you know
當時，您知道像 AMD 或 Nvidia 這類的股票，您知道，一些其他高成長的科技股，您知道
04:15
actually traded much lower but the S&P 500 took it in stride and kept rallying okay but look look what it did it went
其實跌得更多，但 S&P 500 從容地接下了這波賣壓並持續反彈。但是看看它做了什麼，它從
04:22
from working off overbought levels to actually coming into um and what I mean by overbought
消化超買水平的狀態，變成了實際進入——我所謂的超買
04:29
levels obviously ly we have this Divergence here on the RSI where you know this is start sloping lower while
水平，很明顯地，我們在 RSI 上看到這個背離，您知道，當價格仍在反彈時，RSI 開始斜率向下
04:34
price is actually still rally okay um so the normal normal technical Divergence you see you have a lot more volatility
好嗎？所以這是很正常的技術面背離，您會看到波動性大了很多
04:44
we didn't see it okay so let's focus on what's next now what we actually have is we've actually flipped from you know
我們沒看到它，沒關係，所以讓我們專注於接下來會發生什麼。現在我們實際擁有的是，我們已經從尋找
04:51
looking for um negative Divergence here to positive reversals on both the RSI
這裡的負面背離，轉變為 RSI 和綜合指數上的正向反转
04:58
and the Composite Index to where um we can have a situation you can see here in in the black where you know we could
，到我們可以有一種情況，你可以在黑色區域看到，我們有可能
05:06
actually rally okay so um and again you know whether or not this happens uh to start this week um or
真的反彈。所以，同樣地，這件事是否會在本週初發生，或是
05:16
you know later into this week this is something I be looking for in terms of buying opportunities in the stock market
本週晚些時候發生，這是我會尋找股票市場買入機會的時機
05:22
at least on a very short-term basis as we move into the later part of April possibly into early May so um that's
，至少在非常短的基礎上，當我們進入四月下旬，可能到五月初，所以，這就是
05:29
what I'm tracking this week with inflation numbers coming out I think it's going to be important if we don't
我本週在追蹤的，隨著通膨數據公佈，我認為如果我們沒有
05:34
see any big you know um surprises if you will in terms of you know what the estimates are versus what the actual
看到任何重大的，你知道的，驚喜，就預估值與實際
05:42
numbers are this could be a setup where we look to buy all right thank you very much and we'll see you next
數字的比較而言，這可能是一個我們尋求買入的佈局。好的，非常感謝，我們下週
05:48
[Music] week
[音樂] 見
