On May 16th, 2025, I woke up and was ready to get into my graduation gown for the day of celebration of Villanova's graduation ceremony.
2025年5月16日，我醒來準備穿上畢業禮袍，迎接維拉諾瓦大學的畢業典禮。
00:12
My family and friends came from pretty much across the country to see me walk across the stage and receive my diploma.
我的家人和朋友從全國各地趕來，觀看我走上舞台領取畢業證書。
00:19
Michael Sean Matthias.
Michael Sean Matthias。
00:21
Yeah, Michael!
是的，Michael！
00:23
I was really on top of the world super excited to finally have the diploma that shows my hard work over those four years.
我當時真的覺得自己擁有一切，非常興奮終於拿到這張證明我四年努力的畢業證書。
00:31
I was super excited to apply those skills to the job market to an employer and finally be an independent adult.
我非常期待將這些技能應用到職場，找到一份工作，最終成為一個獨立的成年人。
00:38
Flash forward a couple months into the job search.
快轉幾個月，進入求職階段。
00:41
I've been a little demoralizing.
這有點令人沮喪。
00:42
The job market has been very tough, especially for the new grads.
就業市場非常艱難，特別是對應屆畢業生而言。
00:47
I have been on my job search since November 2024.
我從2024年11月開始求職。
00:50
I've been applying anywhere and everywhere and it has been a little difficult to even get to the initial interviews that I want to get to.
我到處投遞履歷，但即使是獲得我想要的初步面試機會也變得有些困難。
00:58
The job market is kind of trash right now.
就業市場現在有點糟糕。
01:02
I mean, it's really difficult.
我的意思是，這真的很難。
01:03
It's really difficult for people who have many years of experience, so it's going to be difficult for college kids.
對於有多年經驗的人來說已經很難了，所以對大學生來說會更難。
01:08
The rise of youth unemployment is worrisome.
年輕人失業率的上升令人擔憂。
01:11
For the individual worker, we can see that graduating in a recession leads long-lasting scars for decades after.
對於個別勞工來說，我們可以發現，在經濟衰退時期畢業，會在數十年後留下長久的創傷。
01:18
These workers are a vital part of the labor market and if they're having a hard time, that means that the economy could have a hard time.
這些勞工是勞動力市場的重要組成部分，如果他們處境艱難，這意味著經濟也可能處境艱難。
01:24
For the broader economy, these youth workers might be early indicators that the overall economy is slowing down or maybe even heading towards a recession.
對於更廣泛的經濟而言，這些年輕勞工可能是整體經濟正在放緩，甚至可能走向衰退的早期指標。
01:33
For the first time in modern history, a bachelor degree is no longer a reliable path to professional employment.
在現代史上，學士學位第一次不再是獲得專業就業的可靠途徑。
01:51
If you look at the overall labor market, it's still doing strong.
如果你看看整體勞動力市場，它仍然表現強勁。
01:55
Unemployment rates in general are still fairly low.
一般而言，失業率仍然相當低。
01:58
But then when you zoom in on the young workers, they seem to be struggling.
但當你仔細觀察年輕勞工時，他們似乎正在掙扎。
02:02
The unemployment rate among young US workers aged 16 to 24 stood at 10.4% in September.
9月份，美國16至24歲年輕勞工的失業率為10.4%。
02:08
It's generally been trending upward since April 2023 when it dipped to the lowest point since the pandemic.
自2023年4月觸及疫情以來最低點後，失業率總體呈上升趨勢。
02:15
And in particular, there's been a worrisome rise in unemployment rates among recent college graduates.
特別是，應屆大學畢業生的失業率出現令人擔憂的上升。
02:22
Usually, we think of those as being some of the most the safest workers in our economy, but that pattern seems to be flipping right now.
通常，我們認為他們是經濟中最穩定的勞工之一，但這種模式目前似乎正在逆轉。
02:30
I think that that is because of two factors.
我認為這是由於兩個因素。
02:33
One is the supply of workers with a bachelor degree is increasing.
其一是擁有
02:39
But at the same time, partly because of AI, the demand for workers with a bachelor degree is not increasing anymore.
但與此同時，部分由於人工智慧，對學士學位勞工的需求已不再增加。
02:47
So we have a glut of people with a bachelor degree.
因此，學士學位人才供過於求。
02:51
Their wage growth is growing more slowly.
他們的薪資增長正在放緩。
02:53
And with AI continuing to automate more and more jobs, I expect that the trend to continue.
隨著人工智慧持續自動化越來越多的工作，我預期此趨勢將會持續。
03:00
Artificial intelligence has allowed some corporate giants to hire fewer workers.
人工智慧已讓一些企業巨頭得以僱用更少的員工。
03:04
And some have even begun shrinking their workforces as they integrate more automation.
有些公司甚至隨著整合更多自動化技術，開始縮減其勞動力。
03:09
Goldman Sachs says it could displace 6 to 7% of the US workforce over the next decade.
高盛表示，未來十年內，人工智慧可能取代美國6%至7%的勞動力。
03:14
Young workers are feeling AI's impact the most.
年輕勞工感受到的
03:18
A Stanford study finds that since 2022, unemployment for 22 to 25 year olds in highly AI exposed jobs has dropped 13%.
史丹佛大學一項研究發現，自 2022 年以來，從事高度受 AI 影響工作的 22 至 25 歲年輕人失業率下降了 13%。
03:26
While older workers and those in less exposed roles remain steady or growing.
相較之下，年長員工以及從事較不受 AI 影響職位的人員，失業率則保持穩定或有所增長。
03:32
I think AI and machine learning is absolutely taking entry level careers from new graduates like myself.
我認為人工智慧和機器學習絕對正在剝奪像我這樣的應屆畢業生的入門級職位。
03:39
From a business standpoint, it makes a lot of sense.
從商業角度來看，這完全說得通。
03:41
You get something that can produce results a lot quicker.
你會得到能更快產生結果的東西。
03:45
I really can't blame employers for making those steps in my mind, the right direction to save money, cut costs, but it's a little frustrating for my standpoint because I'm looking for a full time career somewhere to really put my skills to work.
Especially for larger corporations that are trying to go through AI transformation, some of it could be tied to AI from a perspective of they're trying to let go of people in other departments so that they can invest more in AI.
But at the same time, I think what's also happening is the AI systems that can write cold, especially at junior level, has gotten really good.
但同時，我認為正在發生的另一件事是，能夠編寫程式碼的AI系統，特別是在初級層面，已經變得非常出色。
04:17
And because of that, we are already seeing in, especially in tech companies, the need for a number of junior engineers has gotten lower.
正因為如此，我們已經看到，特別是在科技公司中，對初級工程師的需求數量已經降低。
04:24
The Federal Reserve has also taken notice.
聯邦儲備理事會也已注意到這一點。
04:27
You see a significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring or actually doing layoffs much of the time they're talking about AI and what it can do.
But there is another element here which is more and more young people are going to college and just a much higher rate than the baby boomers who are now retiring.
但這裡還有另一個因素，那就是越來越多的年輕人正在上大學，而且比現在正在退休的嬰兒潮一代高出許多。
04:49
So what's happening is that the workforce is becoming more and more educated over time.
因此，正在發生的情況是，勞動力隨著時間的推移變得越來越有教育程度。
04:55
And perhaps to the degree that we have a glut of college grads.
甚至可能到了我們大學畢業生過剩的程度。
04:59
AI might be having a little bit of impact.
AI可能產生了一點影響。
05:01
But I think right now what's really driving a lot of this youth unemployment is the fact that businesses just in general are not bringing on new workers.
但我認為，目前真正導致許多青年失業的原因是，企業普遍不招聘新員工。
05:10
And so whether you're unemployed or whether you're trying to get the labor market for the first time, right now is a really difficult time to find a job.
因此，無論你是失業，還是第一次嘗試進入勞動市場，現在都是一個非常難找工作的時期。
05:17
Just a few years ago, many companies, especially tech firms, were not a hiring spree during the pandemic era.
就在幾年前，許多公司，特別是科技公司，在疫情期間正大舉招聘。
05:24
For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Amazon's workforce ballooned to 1.6 million employees globally in 2021.
例如，在COVID-19疫情期間，亞馬遜的全球員工數量在2021年激增至160萬人。
05:31
By 2024, the count had shrunk to 1.5 million and 2025 is no stranger to layoffs.
截至2024年，這一數字已縮減至150萬人，而2025年對裁員來說也並不陌生。
05:37
Amazon saying this morning, it's going to lay off about 14,000 corporate employees as it restructures for the AI era, marking the latest move in a multi-year effort to streamline operations and shift resources toward its biggest bets, including generative AI.
Experts are divided on whether COVID-19 hiring sprees are behind the current layoffs.
專家們對於目前的裁員是否與COVID-19疫情期間的大舉招聘有關，意見不一。
05:56
Overhiring, they did in the COVID era when they didn't actually need to, that the results of that are being seen now.
他們在疫情期間進行了過度招聘，而當時他們實際上並不需要，其結果現在正在顯現。
06:03
So correlation doesn't imply causation, like it's not because of AI that people are losing jobs.
所以，相關性不代表因果關係，並非因為人工智慧，人們才失去工作。
06:07
In fact, because of AI, we see a lot more empowerment in people, like small business owners are able to take advantage of AI and build amazing companies.
事實上，因為人工智慧，我們看到人們獲得了更多的賦能，例如小型企業主能夠利用人工智慧建立出色的公司。
06:17
We should probably not use this argument much anymore.
我們可能不應該再多使用這個論點了。
06:20
It's been a long time.
這已經是很久以前的事了。
06:22
I think if there was overhiring, it's already been adjusted in 23, 24.
我認為如果存在過度招聘，那在2023、2024年就已經調整了。
06:27
We are now November 25.
我們現在是2025年11月。
06:29
I think it's no longer a big impact.
我認為這不再是一個很大的影響因素。
06:32
But I would say that the period of strong labor shortages that we had in 2021, 22, 23, I think it forced companies, even without AI, or not taking AI out of this story here.
It just forced companies, this is a severe labor shortage, to learn how to do things with the fewer people.
它只是迫使公司，因為這是一個嚴重的勞動力短缺，去學習如何用更少的人來完成工作。
06:52
And that may be another factor that is impacting the labor market conditions now.
這可能是另一個影響當前勞動市場狀況的因素。
07:00
Not only are young workers finding it difficult to enter the job market, but the young professional workforce is also shrinking.
不僅年輕勞工難以進入就業市場，年輕專業勞動力也在萎縮。
07:06
A recent study by a compensation platform, Pave, finds that between January 2023 and July 2025, the number of young workers at large public technology companies fell by more than half.
The impact that this rising youth unemployment rate could have, you know, you start playing this out over the course of years and you say, you know, if these workers have a hard time getting into jobs now, that impacts spending, right?
It's a problem today and it will be an either bigger problem in the future.
這今天是個問題，而且在未來會成為更大的問題。
08:06
It will be a problem that will have political consequences.
這將是一個會帶來政治後果的問題。
08:10
I think what will eventually happen is that there will be growing demand for income redistribution.
我認為最終會發生的是，對收入重分配的需求將會不斷增長。
08:16
If you have increasing unemployment rates, especially among young workers, it might leave some with being dissatisfied with the current economy and political climate that could have some implications for in general, the political debate.
And so we need to really be thinking about, you know, how do we make sure that we're taking care of this right now because it could have big spending, big economic implications down the road.
The job market is challenging for young workers as many entry-level positions, a launchpad for new graduates, are disappearing.
對於年輕工作者來說，就業市場具有挑戰性，因為許多入門級職位，即新畢業生的跳板，正在消失。
08:48
At the same time, however, handshake, a career site for college students and recent grads, reports that employers are increasingly seeking entry-level hires who are fluent in AI.
We're actually seeing from companies is an increase in desire for early talent to have AI skills. So we've actually seen a 5x increase in our job posting since 2023 that list AI skills as part of the job requirements or qualifications. And even on internships, it's been a 4x increase
in that same amount of time. So employers are interested in early talent that is familiar and comfortable using AI. They do expect that early talent will be able to use AI in their functional roles and that they will know how to balance both their expertise and knowledge as well as
productivity and efficiency. I think especially the younger workforce should realize that this AI is starting to automate a lot of stuff. AI started to augment a lot of stuff. So learning how to use the tools will make them stand out when they are applying for jobs, like knowing how to
prompt better, knowing how to use multiple genii systems if needed where some genii systems are good for certain kind of tasks, knowing about all of these and having that literacy to be able to do different tasks better in a more efficient way because they've just become more learned on AI
tools will allow them to stand out. We should not be afraid of AI. We should actually be embracing AI for all of the places that it can help and what it doesn't replace is really smart creative people. And we see that all across the board. In today's AI driven workforce, some career
experts also emphasize the importance of networking in navigating the job market. First and foremost, if you're someone who's graduating right now and you haven't done internships while you've been in school, if you haven't been working on building connections with people who are in the professional working world, you need to hurry up and get on that because the number one thing you can do to
通過這些關係，讓自己與眾不同，讓有人記得你，與你有過良好的實習合作經歷，並希望看到你成功。
10:43
separate yourself from the pack is to have those relationships, to have someone who remembers you, who had a good experience working with you as an intern and who wants to see you succeed.
我永遠不想低估或忽視這些個人聯繫的力量。
10:52
And I don't ever want to undervalue or underestimate the power of those personal connections.
I have a lot of hope going forward for the job market. I'm a little bit of an optimist in that sense. I think, you know, hard times, great strong people. And I think this is just a little bit of a difficult time for those new graduates. And ultimately, those new graduates are going to become
更強大的人。我認為他們在未來不會對自己的工作感到理所當然。
11:13
stronger people. And I think they will not take their jobs for granted in the future.
我認為他們最終會取得更強勁的回報。
11:18
And I think they'll ultimately make a stronger return.
4WhathappenedtoAmazon'sglobalworkforcesizebetween 2021 and 2024?亞馬遜的全球員工人數在2021年至2024年間發生了什麼變化？WhathappenedtoAmazon'sglobalworkforcesizebetween 2021 and 2024?
