The Buy Now Pay Later Industry, or BNPL, has exploded as an alternative to credit cards.
先買後付產業，或稱 BNPL，已爆炸性地成為信用卡的替代方案。
00:17
We really believe the credit card industry is going the way of the VHS tape.
我們真的相信信用卡產業將走向 VHS 錄影帶的命運。
00:23
But will BNPL actually dethrone credit cards?
但先買後付真的會取代信用卡嗎？
00:26
Or will they ultimately just be treated like credit cards?
還是最終它們只會被當作信用卡來對待？
00:31
This is the economics of Buy Now Pay Later.
這就是先買後付的經濟學。
00:35
Three companies make up the bulk of the BNPL market in the US, though two initially found success internationally.
美國的 BNPL 市場主要由三家公司組成，儘管其中兩家最初是在國際上取得成功。
00:42
After Pay co-founder Nick Molnar launched the company in Australia in 2014 to entice more people to make purchases at his jewelry store.
After Pay 的聯合創始人 Nick Molnar 於 2014 年在澳洲創立了這家公司，以吸引更多人到他的珠寶店購物。
00:51
We built it, we tested it, and it became a very significant portion of our sales really quickly.
我們建置了它，測試了它，它很快就成為我們銷售中非常重要的一部分。
00:58
All of the top providers offer the typical Pay 4 Zero Interest installment loan.
所有頂級供應商都提供典型的「先買後付、零利率分期貸款」。
01:03
It has become synonymous with BNPL.
這已成為 BNPL 的代名詞。
01:06
Take that burrito bowl.
就以那個墨西哥捲餅套餐為例。
01:08
Once the customer chooses the BNPL option at checkout, the provider approves the loan based on its underwriting model.
當顧客在結帳時選擇 BNPL 選項後，供應商會根據其承保模型批准貸款。
01:14
We pay the retailer the next day, and then we take all of the non-payment risk.
我們會在第二天支付零售商款項，然後我們承擔所有未付款的風險。
01:19
Then, the customer is put on a four-part repayment plan with no interest.
然後，顧客將被納入一個無利息的四期還款計畫。
01:24
If a payment is late, some providers charge a fee.
如果付款逾期，某些供應商會收取費用。
01:27
Providers also charge the merchants to make the loans available to their customers.
供應商也會向商家收取費用，以便將貸款提供給他們的顧客。
01:32
Sometimes that's as much as, you know, 5% of the transaction value.
有時這筆費用高達交易價值的 5%。
01:37
The lion's share of our income, 90 plus percent of our income is made from the merchant, not the consumer.
我們收入的大部分，90% 以上的收入來自商家，而不是消費者。
01:42
Some lenders, like a firm, have also begun to offer longer-term loans that carry interest.
一些貸方，例如 Affirm，也開始提供較長期的貸款，這些貸款會收取利息。
01:47
About 20% of our business today is 0% and about 80% has interest on them.
我們現今約有 20% 的業務是 0% 利率，約 80% 則有利息。
01:53
Afterpay also has a pay monthly option for larger ticket transactions.
Afterpay 也為較大金額的交易提供月付選項。
01:57
Customers pay once a month for a longer period of time instead of every few weeks.
顧客不是每隔幾週付款一次，而是每月支付一次，支付時間較長。
02:02
There's a simple interest attached to these loans.
這些貸款附帶簡單的利息。
02:05
We're not doing it on every checkout flow.
我們並非在每次結帳流程中都提供此服務。
02:08
We're really doing it on a select few that we believe there's, you know, really strong demand for that particular checkout that's occurring.
我們實際上只針對我們認為有非常強勁需求的特定結帳流程提供此服務。
02:15
Where pay and form might not have the same amount of acceptance.
在此情況下，付款和付款方式可能沒有相同的接受度。
02:25
Physical cards that can be used in a brick and mortar store are the next big offering from lenders.
可在實體店使用的實體卡是貸款機構的下一個重要產品。
02:31
That could more or less double the, you know, the potential market.
這有可能使潛在市場規模翻倍。
02:35
Let's say you're walking into the store and you ask us to spend $500 on a jacket, then we approve the loan.
假設您走進商店，要求我們為您購買一件 500 美元的夾克，然後我們批准了貸款。
02:41
And then it's just sitting out there waiting for you to actually transact.
然後這筆貸款就放在那裡，等您實際進行交易。
02:45
And then to check out the store, you chip your card and then we pull that transaction that's waiting out there and attach it to the transaction and put a loan to your account.
然後在結帳時，您刷卡，我們就會調出那筆待處理的交易，將其附加到交易中，並將貸款計入您的帳戶。
02:54
As the scope of Buy Now Pay Later expanded, the industry's growth has exploded in the US.
隨著「先買後付」的範圍擴大，該行業在美國的增長爆炸式增長。
03:00
Buy Now Pay Later transaction volume has multiplied 20 times since 2019.
自 2019 年以來，「先買後付」的交易量已增長 20 倍。
03:05
You have the clear macro trend around consumers choosing alternative ways to pay.
您可以看到一個明顯的宏觀趨勢，即消費者選擇替代的支付方式。
03:12
And that's led to growing competition for both customers and merchants.
這導致了客戶和商家之間的競爭日益激烈。
03:16
In March, Klarna announced an exclusive deal with Walmart to provide loans to customers through the retailer's fintech arm, one pay.
三月，Klarna 宣布與沃爾瑪達成獨家協議，透過該零售商的金融科技部門 One Pay 向客戶提供貸款。
03:25
It's extremely important for the BNPL providers, particularly the specialist BNPL providers to have those direct relationships with the merchants.
對於「先買後付」提供商，特別是專業的「先買後付」提供商來說，與商家建立直接關係極為重要。
03:33
There's a lot of ground out there and a lot of transactions that there's currently nobody being offered.
目前有許多交易機會，有許多交易目前沒有人提供服務。
03:39
And so there's a lot more more white space than there is fighting over existing merchants.
因此，未被開發的市場空間遠大於爭奪現有商家的空間。
03:45
The types of merchants that have adopted BNPL have expanded and that's changed what people buy with their loans.
採用「先買後付」的商家類型已擴大，這也改變了人們用貸款購買的商品。
03:52
BNPL definitely started with e-commerce retail.
「先買後付」肯定始於電子商務零售。
03:54
Generally in that ticket size of $100 to $200.
一般來說，交易金額在 100 至 200 美元之間。
03:59
As it broadened out, you saw even smaller ticket sizes and sometimes even consumable purchases.
隨著其擴展，您看到了更小的交易金額，有時甚至是消費品購買。
04:06
A lending tree survey found that a quarter of BNPL customers have used them to buy groceries up from 14% in 2024.
Lending Tree 的一項調查發現，四分之一的「先買後付」客戶曾用來購買雜貨，高於 2024 年的 14%。
04:15
We don't think it's our job to judge what a consumer's choice is on an financial product that they want to use.
我們認為，判斷消費者選擇他們想使用的金融產品是我們的職責。
04:20
Anytime the consumer is putting down their credit card and using a firm, we think it's a good thing.
任何時候，當消費者放下信用卡並使用一家公司時，我們都認為這是好事。
04:25
I think the BNPL providers got to think about that as to whether is that an indicator that that specific consumer is experiencing more stress or not.
我認為「先買後付」提供者必須考慮這是否表明該特定消費者正在經歷更多壓力。
04:35
In January, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a study that said that more than two-thirds of BNPL loans went to borrowers with lower credit scores.
Buy Now Pay Later can make products look a lot more affordable than they actually are.
「先買後付」可以讓產品看起來比實際價格更實惠。
04:48
BNPL providers argue that most of their customers are credit worthy.
「先買後付」提供者認為，他們的大多數客戶都具有信用價值。
04:53
Half pay actually over indexes in the middle and upper income bracket.
Half pay 的用戶在中高收入群體中佔比過高。
04:58
You're seeing like really, really strong consumers using the product.
您看到的是非常非常強勁的消費者在使用該產品。
05:02
But experts say fast growth isn't just risky for consumers.
但專家表示，快速增長不僅對消費者有風險。
05:06
Whenever you look at consumer credit, that next customer is always going to be a little more risky than the customers you've got on your books.
在審視消費者信貸時，下一位客戶的風險總是會比您現有客戶的風險稍高。
05:13
And for some providers, consumer losses are growing.
對於一些提供者來說，消費者損失正在增加。
05:17
In May, Klarna reported a 17% increase in consumer credit losses from the year before.
五月份，Klarna 報告稱，消費者信貸損失比去年同期增加了 17%。
05:24
Klarna said in a statement that the rise in losses was because it had issued significantly more loans in Q1 of 25.
Klarna 在一份聲明中表示，損失增加是因為其在 25 年第一季度發放了顯著更多的貸款。
05:31
So it's natural for the dollar value of credit losses to rise.
因此，信貸損失的美元價值上升是自然的。
05:35
The company added that in Q2, it reported a record share of transactions repaid on time or early.
該公司補充說，在第二季度，它報告了按時或提前還款的交易創紀錄的比例。
05:42
But broadly, lending tree found that 41% of BNPL users paid late in the past year, up from 34% a year before.
但總體而言，Lending Tree 發現去年有 41% 的 BNPL 用戶逾期付款，高於前一年的 34%。
05:52
A firm has reported a decrease in customer defaults.
有一家公司報告客戶違約率下降。
05:55
We're delivering really good credit outcomes with our approach, which is to underwrite every transaction and to make an honest assessment at the point of sale.
透過我們的做法，我們正在實現非常好的信用成果，那就是對每筆交易進行承保，並在銷售點進行誠實評估。
06:03
And Afterpay says it has seen strong repayment numbers, especially compared to credit cards.
Afterpay 表示，其還款數字強勁，尤其與信用卡相比。
06:07
We disable someone's account the moment they're late on one installment payment.
我們會在客戶逾期一期付款的當下停用其帳戶。
06:12
Our order value is smaller.
我們的訂單價值較小。
06:14
We're not issuing someone with a $5,000 line of credit over an extended period of time.
我們不會向客戶發放長達 5,000 美元的信用額度，並在較長一段時間內使用。
06:21
But regulators and other experts have drawn similarities between BNPL and credit cards.
但監管機構和其他專家已將 BNPL 與信用卡之間進行了類比。
06:27
In 2024, the CFPB issued an interpretive rule that would subject BNPL providers to credit card regulations.
2024 年，CFPB 發布了一項解釋性規定，將使 BNPL 提供商受到信用卡法規的約束。
06:36
For President Trump and Doge have since crippled the Consumer Protection Agency, which announced it would not prioritize enforcing that rule.
And that's really a concern to those of us who would like to see these technologies used effectively to give consumers more choices in digital finance.
這確實讓那些希望看到這些技術被有效利用，為消費者在數位金融中提供更多選擇的人感到擔憂。
06:52
There's been shifts within the industry, too.
行業內部也出現了轉變。
06:54
FICO announced in June that it would add, by now, pay later loans to credit reports.
FICO 在 6 月宣布，將把「先買後付」貸款納入信用報告。
06:58
That's after a firm became the first major provider to share consumer data with Credit Bureaus and TransUnion.
這是因為有一家公司成為首家與信用局和 TransUnion 分享消費者數據的主要供應商。
07:06
But Klarna and Afterpay say they're withholding customer data until they're assured its customers won't be unfairly penalized.
It also said that it looks forward to a system where these products can contribute positively to consumers' credit standing.
該公司還表示，期待一個能讓這些產品對消費者信用狀況做出積極貢獻的系統。
07:26
And Block, which owns Afterpay, said that the credit reporting scoring and interpretation still largely operate under legacy frameworks.
擁有 Afterpay 的 Block 表示，信用報告、評分和解釋在很大程度上仍沿用舊有框架。
07:36
So the company argues that there needs to be a separate framework for BNPL and credit cards.
因此，該公司認為需要為 BNPL 和信用卡建立獨立的框架。
07:42
In a regulatory framework that respects those components of the product and builds the framework around something that is very different to traditional forms of credit, is one that we're being really hard at working from the day we started the business.
I don't think that BNPL will replace credit cards.
我認為 BNPL 不會取代信用卡。
08:00
I think it's going to replace credit cards for certain people and may replace credit cards for many people for certain types of transactions.
我認為它將會取代某些人的信用卡，並且可能在某些類型的交易中取代許多人的信用卡。
08:09
Even if BNPL providers would prefer credit cards disappeared, nothing would make our team happier than if we could see the death of revolving credit in the United States.
即使 BNPL 提供商希望信用卡消失，如果我們能看到美國循環信貸的終結，我們的團隊將會非常高興。
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