- [Presenter] Few things in the economy are more closely watched than bond yields.
[講者] 經濟中很少有事物比債券殖利率更受密切關注。
00:05
- There are forces in
play that merit watching.
有些力量正在發揮作用，值得關注。
00:08
Some commodity prices and 10-year treasury yields have climbed.
某些商品價格和十年期國庫券殖利率已攀升。
00:11
- [Presenter] That's the president of The Federal Reserve of Atlanta last March speaking about how The
Fed gauges inflation
[講者] 這是一位亞特蘭大聯邦準備銀行總裁去年三月談論聯準會如何衡量通膨，
00:18
and why it's keeping a close
eye on certain bond yields.
以及為何密切關注某些債券殖利率。
00:22
US government bond yields are
a barometer for the economy, but they're also more than that.
美國政府債券殖利率是經濟的晴雨表，但它們不僅僅如此。
00:27
- US government bond yields
are extremely important to the US and even in the global economy.
美國政府債券殖利率對美國甚至全球經濟都極為重要。
00:32
Bond yields affect everything
from the cost of a mortgage to the cost of borrowing for businesses.
債券殖利率影響著從房貸成本到企業借貸成本的一切。
00:39
If you're borrowing money, that's gonna be determined
to a large extent by US government bond yields.
如果您在借錢，在很大程度上將由美國政府債券殖利率決定。
00:46
- [Presenter] And changes
in yields can impact you.
[講者] 殖利率的變動可能會影響您。
00:48
Here's how bond yields work and why they're so crucial to the economy.
以下是債券殖利率的運作方式，以及為何它們對經濟如此關鍵。
00:52
(bright music) When we talk about a bond yield, we're typically talking
about the annualized return
(輕快音樂) 當我們談論債券殖利率時，我們通常指的是年化報酬率，
01:01
an investor earns by holding a
bond until its maturity date.
投資者持有債券直至到期日所賺取的。
01:05
Let's break this down.
我們來分解一下。
01:06
A bond is a contract with
features that are set from the start.
債券是一種合約，其特徵從一開始就已確定。
01:10
There's the maturity date, which refers to the
length of the bond's life.
有到期日，指的是債券的存續期間。
01:13
This is generally two to 30 years.
這通常是兩到三十年。
01:16
Bonds that mature between two and 10 years are also called notes.
到期日在兩到十年之間的債券也稱為票據。
01:20
Then there's it's face
value, which is the amount the bond is worth when it's first created and the amount it is guaranteed
to pay on the maturity date.
然後是面值，這是債券最初發行時的價值，以及到期日保證支付的金額。
01:28
There's also the annual interest rate, otherwise known as the coupon rate.
還有年利率，也稱為票面利率。
01:32
This is the fixed amount
a bond pays each year up to its maturity date.
這是債券每年支付的固定金額，直到其到期日為止。
01:36
So say an investor buys a
new 10-year treasury note with a face value of $1,000
and a coupon or yield of 4%.
假設一位投資者購買了一張新的十年期美國國庫券，面值為1,000美元，票面利率或殖利率為4%。
01:45
Every year, the investor will receive $40 and on the 10th year, she'll
get back the original $1,000 she paid for the bond.
每年，這位投資者將收到40美元，並在第十年時，她將收回當初購買該債券所支付的1,000美元本金。
01:54
But here's the thing, as
soon as she buys that bond, she can sell it to other investors and when she does certain
features of the bond
但問題是，她一旦買下那張債券，就可以將其出售給其他投資者，而當她這麼做時，債券的某些特性
02:02
are subject to change.
就會隨之改變。
02:04
If the economy is doing well,
interest rates may go up, which means new bonds will
be issued at a higher yield, bringing down the value of existing bonds.
如果經濟表現良好，利率可能會上升，這意味著新發行的債券將提供更高的殖利率，從而降低現有債券的價值。
02:13
Say a new batch of 10 year
treasuries pay a yield of 5%.
假設新一批十年期美國國庫券的殖利率為5%。
02:17
Suddenly this bond is less
attractive to investors and the price has dropped.
突然間，這張債券對投資者的吸引力降低，價格也隨之下降。
02:22
When the price goes
down, the yield goes up and when interest rates go down, this same dynamic happens in reverse.
當價格下跌時，殖利率會上升；而當利率下跌時，同樣的動態則會反向發生。
02:29
The inverse relationship
between the price of a bond and it's yield is key to understanding why investors care so
much about bond yields
債券價格與其殖利率之間的逆向關係，是理解為何投資者如此關注債券殖利率的關鍵
02:37
and why you sometimes
see yields and stocks both going up at the same time.
以及為何有時會看到殖利率和股票同時上漲的原因。
02:42
- Investors generally like bonds because they are a safe investment.
投資者普遍喜歡債券，因為它們是一種安全的投資。
02:46
The problem is that that
return is gonna be often lower, much lower than stocks.
問題是，這種回報通常會低於股票，甚至低得多。
02:51
- [Presenter] Sam Goldfarb
covers changes in bond yields and how they're connected
to financial markets and the economy.
[旁白] 山姆·戈德法布報導債券殖利率的變化，以及它們如何與金融市場和經濟連結。
02:57
- If investors are
confident about the economy, they might not be satisfied
with the small return they can get from US government bonds.
如果投資者對經濟有信心，他們可能不會滿足於從美國政府債券獲得的微薄回報。
03:04
They might choose to buy stocks instead.
他們可能會選擇購買股票。
03:06
- [Presenter] But climbing
treasury yields also signal that borrowing is getting more expensive.
[旁白] 但不斷攀升的美國國庫券殖利率也預示著借貸成本正在變得更高。
03:11
- It's basically a proxy for
longer-term interest rates.
它基本上是長期利率的替代指標。
03:15
If you want to get a
rough sense of, you know, where your mortgage
rates are gonna be going, you might look at the 10-year
treasury note and it's yield.
如果你想大致了解，你知道的，你的抵押貸款利率將會走向何方，你可能會看看十年期美國國庫券及其殖利率。
03:23
- [Presenter] Bond yields
aren't just watched by economists and investors.
[旁白] 債券殖利率不只受到經濟學家和投資者的關注。
03:26
The Federal reserve keeps a
close eye on them as well.
美國聯邦準備理事會也密切關注著這些。
03:29
And they're not just watching.
而且他們不只是在觀望。
03:31
Bond yields are a key
part of monetary policy that The Fed uses to help
influence the economy.
債券殖利率是聯準會用來影響經濟的貨幣政策的關鍵部分。
03:37
- There has been an underlying sense of an improved economic outlook,
and that has to be part of why rates would move back up from
一直有一種經濟前景改善的潛在感覺，這一定是利率從
03:44
the extraordinarily low
levels they were at.
原本極低的水平回升的原因之一。
03:47
- [Presenter] That's the
chairman of The Federal reserve in March, 2021, talking
about the rise in bond yields during the economic crisis.
