I'm the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management
and I'm here today to talk to you about everything you need to know about finance and investing
and I'm going to get it done in an hour and you’ll be ready to go.
We’re going to start a company and we’re
going to start a lemonade stand and now I
我们要开一家公司，我们要开一个柠檬水摊，现在我...
01:11
don’t have any money today, so I'm going
to have to raise money from investors to launch the business.
今天没有钱，所以我必须向投资者筹集资金来启动这项业务。
01:14
So how am I going to do that?
那么我该怎么做呢？
01:15
Well I'm going to form a corporation.
嗯，我要成立一家公司。
01:16
That is a little filing that you make with
the State and you come up with a name for a business.
这是一个向州政府提交的小文件，你要为你的企业取个名字。
01:22
We’ll call it Bill’s Lemonade Stand and
we’re going to raise money from outside investors.
我们就叫它“比尔的柠檬水摊”，我们要向外部投资者筹集资金。
01:26
We need a little money to get started, so
we’re going to start our business with 1,000 shares of stock.
我们需要一点钱来起步，所以我们一开始会有1,000股股票。
01:30
We just made up that number and we’re going
to sell 500 shares more for a $1 each to an investor.
我们刚编了这个数字，我们要再以每股1美元的价格向一位投资者出售500股。
01:35
The investor is going to put up $500.
这位投资者将投入500美元。
01:37
We’re going to put up the name and the idea.
我们将投入品牌名称和这个想法。
01:40
We’re going to have 1,000 shares.
我们将拥有1,000股。
01:41
He is going to have 500 shares.
他将拥有500股。
01:43
He is going to own a third of the business
for his $500.
他将拥有这家企业的三分之一，作为他500美元的回报。
01:46
So what is our business worth at the start?
那么我们这家企业在起步时价值多少？
01:48
Well it’s worth $1,500.
嗯，它价值1,500美元。
01:49
We have $500 in the bank plus $1,000 because
I came up with the idea for the company.
我们银行里有500美元，再加上1,000美元，因为我想出了这家公司的点子。
01:55
Now I'm going to need a little more than $500,
so what am I going to do?
現在我需要的資金會超過 500 美元，那我該怎麼辦？
01:58
I'm going to borrow some money.
我打算借一些錢。
01:59
I'm going to borrow from a friend and he’s
going to lend me $250 and we’re going to pay him 10% interest a year for that loan.
我會向朋友借錢，他會借給我 250 美元，我們每年會支付這筆貸款 10% 的利息。
02:07
Now why do we borrow money instead of just
selling more stock?
那麼我們為什麼要借錢，而不是直接賣掉更多股票呢？
02:10
Well by borrowing money we keep more of the
stock for ourselves, so if the business is successful we’re going to end up with a
bigger percentage of the profits.
嗯，透過借錢，我們可以保留更多股票，所以如果生意成功，我們最終能獲得更大比例的利潤。
02:18
So now we’re going to take a look at what
the business looks like on a piece of paper.
現在讓我們看看這家公司在紙面上的狀況。
02:23
We’re going to look at something called
a balance sheet and a balance sheet tells you where the company stands, what your assets
are, what your liabilities are and what your net worth or shareholder equity is.
If you take your assets, in this case we’ve
raised $500.
如果你把你的資產加總起來，在這個案例中我們籌到了 500 美元。
02:33
We also have what is called goodwill because
we’ve said the business—in exchange for the $500 the person who put up the money only
got a third of the business.
The other two-thirds is owned by us for starting
the company.
另外三分之二則屬於我們，因為我們創立了這家公司。
02:42
That is $1,000 of goodwill for the business.
這意味著這門生意有 1,000 美元的商譽。
02:46
We borrowed $250.
我們借了 250 美元。
02:48
We’re going to owe $250.
我們將欠款 250 美元。
02:49
That is a liability.
這是一筆負債。
02:50
So we have $500 in cash from selling stock,
$250 from raising debt and we owe a $250 loan and we have a corporation that has, and you’ll
see on the chart, shareholders’ equity of
Unlike lemon or sugar or water this is something
like a building that you buy and you build it.
不像檸檬、糖或水，這類似於你購買並建造的一棟建築。
03:24
It wears out over time, but it’s a fixed
asset.
它會隨著時間磨損，但它是一項固定資產。
03:26
And then you need some inventory.
接著你需要一些存貨。
03:27
What do you need to make lemonade?
製作檸檬汁需要什麼？
03:29
You need sugar.
你需要糖。
03:30
You need water.
你需要水。
03:31
You need lemons.
你需要檸檬。
03:32
You need cups.
你需要杯子。
03:33
You need little containers and perhaps some
napkins and you need enough supplies to let’s say have 50 gallons of lemonade in our start
of our business.
Shareholder equity hasn’t changed, so we
haven’t made any money.
股東權益沒有變動，所以我們還沒有賺到任何錢。
04:12
All we’ve done is we’ve taken cash and
we’ve turned it into other assets that we’re going to need to succeed in our lemon stand
business.
我們所做的只是把現金轉換成其他我們在檸檬汁攤事業中為了成功所需要的資產。
04:19
So let’s make some assumptions about how
our business is going to do over time.
因此，讓我們對我們的業務隨時間的發展做一些假設。
04:25
We’re going to assume we’re going to sell
800 cups of lemonade a year.
我們假設每年將賣出 800 杯檸檬汁。
04:28
That’s not a particularly ambitious assumption,
but we should assume the lemonade business is fairly seasonal.
這不是一個特別宏大的假設，但我們應該假設檸檬汁生意有很強的季節性。
04:30
Most of the lemonade sells will happen over
the summer.
大部分的檸檬汁銷售將在夏季發生。
04:31
We’re going to assume that each cup we can
sell for $1 and it’s going to cost us about $530 per year to staff our lemonade stand.
我們假設每杯可以賣 1 美元，而我們每年經營檸檬汁攤位的人事成本約為 530 美元。
04:36
So now let’s take a look at the income statement,
so the income statement talks about the profitability, about the revenues that the business generated,
what the expenses are and what is left over for the owner of the company.
現在讓我們看看損益表，損益表說明了獲利能力、公司產生的營收、各項費用以及留給公司所有者的剩餘部分。
04:47
So we’ve got one lemonade stand.
我們有一個檸檬汁攤位。
04:49
We’re selling 800 cups of lemonade at our
stand.
我們在攤位上賣出 800 杯檸檬汁。
04:52
We’re charging $1, so we’re generating
about $800 a year in revenue and we’re spending $200 on inventory.
我們每杯收費 1 美元，因此每年產生約 800 美元的營收，而我們在存貨上花費了 200 美元。
04:58
There is a line item here called COGS.
這裡有一個項目叫做銷貨成本（COGS）。
05:00
That stands for cost of goods sold.
這是銷貨成本（Cost of Goods Sold）的縮寫。
05:03
We have depreciation because our lemonade
stand gets a bit beat up over time and it wear out over five years, so it depreciates
over 5 years.
So the question is, is this a particularly
good business?
所以問題是，這是一門特別好的生意嗎？
05:45
Well we’re losing money and our cash is
basically going down over time.
好吧，我們正在虧錢，而且我們的現金基本上隨著時間一直在減少。
05:46
Is this a business we want to stay in?
這是我們想要繼續經營的事業嗎？
05:47
Now the cash flow statement takes the income
statement and figures out what happens to the cash in the company’s till, so when
you put up $750, some money goes to pay for a lemonade stand.
Some money is lost selling the product and
at the end of the day we started with $750 and now we only have $500.
部分資金在銷售產品時損失了，最終我們開始時有750美元，現在只剩下500美元。
05:52
Let’s look at the balance sheet.
我們來看看資產負債表。
05:53
What has happened?
發生了什麼事？
05:54
Our cash has gone down from 750 to 500.
我們的現金從750減少到500。
05:55
Our fixed assets have gone from 300 to 240.
我們的固定資產從300減少到240。
05:56
That means our lemonade stand is starting
to wear out.
這意味著我們的檸檬水攤位開始磨損了。
05:57
Goodwill hasn’t changed.
商譽沒有改變。
05:58
We still owe $250 and our shareholder’s
equity is now down to $1,490, so it was the 1,500 we started with minus the $10 we lost
over the course of the year.
Let’s make some projections about what the
company is going to look like over the next several years.
讓我們對公司未來幾年的狀況做一些預測。
06:06
Let’s assume that we take all the cash the
business generates and we’re going to use it to buy more lemonade stands so we can grow.
假設我們將事業產生的所有現金都用來購買更多的檸檬水攤位，這樣我們才能成長。
06:09
Let’s assume we’re not going to take any
money out of the company and we’re not going to pay a dividend.
假設我們不從公司拿走任何錢，也不會支付股息。
06:13
We’re going to keep all the money in the
company and reinvest it.
我們會把所有的錢都留在公司並進行再投資。
06:15
Let’s assume that we’re going to—as
we build our brand we can charge a little more each year, so we’re going to raise
our prices about a nickel, five cents more for each cup of lemonade each year and then
we’re going to assume we can sell 5% more
So if you take a look at this chart you’ll
see in year one we started out with one lemonade stand.
如果你觀察這張圖表，你會看到在第一年，我們從一個檸檬水攤開始。
06:39
We add one a year and then by year five we’re
up to seven because we’ve got a big expansion plan.
我們每年增加一個攤位，到了第五年，我們擴張到七個攤位，因為我們有一個龐大的擴張計畫。
06:45
Our price per cup goes up a nickel a year
and our revenue goes from $800 and starts to grow fairly quickly and the growth comes
from increased prices for cups of lemonade and it also comes from opening more stands.
Our costs are relatively constant, which is
the lemonade and the sugar.
我們的成本相對穩定，也就是檸檬水和糖的費用。
07:04
That’s about $1,702.
大約是 1,702 美元。
07:06
We have depreciation as more and more stands
start to wear out over time.
隨著時間推移，越來越多攤位開始折舊。
07:11
We’ve got labor expense, but by year five
the business is actually doing pretty well.
我們有人事費用，但到了第五年，生意其實做得相當不錯。
07:15
We went from a 1.3% margin to over a 28% margin.
我們的利潤率從 1.3% 提升到超過 28%。
07:19
The business is now up to scale.
公司現在已達到規模經濟。
07:21
We’re starting to cover some of our costs.
我們開始涵蓋部分成本。
07:22
We’re growing.
我們正在成長。
07:23
We’re still paying $25 a year in interest
for our loan and we have earnings before taxes, after interest of $2,300 by the end of year
5.
我們每年仍需支付 25 美元的貸款利息，到了第五年底，扣除利息後的稅前盈餘為 2,300 美元。
07:32
So we put $500 into the business.
所以我們向事業投入了 500 美元。
07:34
We borrowed 250 and by year five we’re making
a profit of $2,300.
我們借了 250 美元，到了第五年，我們賺了 2,300 美元的利潤。
07:39
That sounds pretty good.
這聽起來相當不錯。
07:40
Now we have to pay taxes to the government.
現在我們必須向政府繳稅。
07:41
That is about 35% and we generate net income
or another word for profits of $1,500 by the fifth year and about a dollar a share.
這大約是35%，到了第五年我們產生了淨利，或者說利潤，為1,500美元，每股約合一美元。
07:51
So if you think about this our friend put
up $500 to buy 500 shares of stock.
所以想想看，我們的朋友出資500美元購買了500股股票。
07:56
He paid a dollar and after five years if our
business goes as we expect he is actually making a dollar a share in profit.
他當時每股支付一美元，而五年後，如果我們的生意如預期發展，他每股實際上賺了一美元的利潤。
08:03
That sounds like a pretty good deal.
這聽起來是個相當不錯的交易。
08:04
So what has been the growth?
那麼成長狀況如何呢？
08:05
The growth has been fairly dramatic over the
period and that is what has enabled us to become a successful business.
在這段期間內，成長相當顯著，這也讓我們成為一家成功的企業。
08:08
Now these are just projections, but if they’re
reasonable projections this might be a business that we want to start or invest in.
這些只是預測，但如果這些預測合理，這可能就是我們想要創立或投資的企業。
08:10
Now let’s look at the cash flow statement.
現在讓我們看看現金流量表。
08:12
So as the business becomes more and more profitable
we generate more and more cash and the cash builds up in the company.
隨著企業越來越賺錢，我們產生的現金也越來越多，現金在公司內不斷累積。
08:18
We go from $500 of cash in the company to
over $2,000 of cash over the period.
公司的現金從500美元增加到超過2,000美元。
08:25
The balance sheet, again, the starting balance
sheet had shareholder’s equity of $1,490, but as the business becomes more profitable
the profits add to the cash.
再看資產負債表，起初的資產負債表股東權益為1,490美元，但隨著企業變得更賺錢，利潤會增加現金。
08:35
They add to the assets of the company.
它們增加了公司的資產。
08:37
Our liabilities have not changed and the business
continues to build value over time.
我們的負債沒有改變，而企業持續隨時間創造價值。
08:41
So again by the end of year five we’ve got
$4,000 of shareholder equity and that’s almost three times what it was when we started.
因此，到了第五年底，我們的股東權益達到4,000美元，這幾乎是我們剛開始時的三倍。
08:49
Good vs.
好企業與
08:50
Bad Businesses Now is this a good business or a bad business?
壞企業 現在，這是一門好生意還是壞生意？
08:56
How do we think about whether it’s good
or bad?
我們該如何判斷它是好是壞？
08:59
One thing to think about is what kind of earnings
are we achieving compared to how much money went into the company.
有一點值得思考的是，相對於投入公司的資金，我們實現了什麼樣的報酬。
09:11
Now this is a business that we valued at $1,500
when we started.
這是一門我們在剛開始時估值為1,500美元的生意。
09:15
Someone put up $500 for a third of the company.
有人出資500美元，換取了公司三分之一的股權。
09:16
We gave it a $1,500 value.
我們給它一個 1,500 美元的估值。
09:18
By the end of year five it’s earning over
$1,500 in earnings, so that’s over a 100% return on the money that we put into the company.
到第五年，它的獲利超過 1,500 美元，所以這是我們投入這家公司資金超過 100% 的報酬率。
09:28
That’s actually quite a high number.
這其實是個相當高的數字。
09:29
We spent—let’s talk about return on capital.
我們花了——讓我們談談資本報酬率。
09:31
We’ve spent $2,100 in capital building lemonade
stands and we earned $2,336 in year five on the capital we invested.
我們花了 2,100 美元的資本建造檸檬水攤，而我們在第五年從投入的資本中賺了 2,336 美元。
09:39
That’s over 100% return on capital.
這是超過 100% 的資本報酬率。
09:41
That is a very attractive return.
這是非常吸引人的報酬。
09:44
Earnings have grown at a very rapid rate,
155% per annum.
獲利以非常快的速度成長，每年 155%。
09:47
This is really a growth company and our profitability
has gone from 1.3% to 28.6% by year five and that sounds pretty attractive and it is.
They’re getting a 10% return on their loan
and the business is worth well more than $250.
他們的貸款獲得 10% 的報酬，而這門生意的價值遠超過 250 美元。
10:14
We’ve got more than that in cash.
我們手上的現金就超過這個數字。
10:16
As a result, they’re in a safe position,
but they’ve only made 10% on their money.
結果是，他們處於安全的位置，但他們的資金只賺了 10%。
10:21
Now let’s compare that with the equity investor,
the person who bought the stock in the company.
現在讓我們將其與股權投資者，也就是購買公司股票的人做比較。
10:25
That person earned a dollar a share in year
five versus an investment of a dollar a share, so he is earning over 100% or about 100% return
on his investment versus only 10% for the lender.
Now why did the equity investor, why do they
have the right to earn so much more than the lender?
現在為什麼股權投資者，為什麼他們有權賺取比放款人多得多的錢？
10:43
The answer is they took more risk.
答案是他們承擔了更高的風險。
10:45
If the business failed the lender is entitled
to the first $250 of value that comes from liquidating the company, so if you sell off
the lemonade stands and you only get $250
如果企業倒閉，貸方有權優先獲得清算公司所得的前 250 元價值，所以如果你賣掉
10:56
the lender gets back all their money.
貸方就能拿回所有的錢。
10:57
They’re safe.
他們是安全的。
10:58
They got their 10% return while the business
was going.
他們在企業營運期間獲得了 10% 的報酬。
11:00
They got back their $250, but the equity investor,
the person who bought the stock is wiped out because they come after the lender.
他們拿回了 250 元，但股權投資人，
11:11
So what is the difference between debt and
equity?
那麼債券和股權的差別是什麼？
11:14
Debt tends to be a safer investment because
you have a senior claim on the assets of a company and it comes in lots of different
forms.
債券通常是一種較安全的投資，因為你對公司資產
11:21
You’ve heard of mortgage debt on a home.
你聽過房屋的抵押貸款。
11:23
That’s a secured loan secured by a house,
but you could have mortgage debt on a building for a company.
那是由房屋擔保的抵押貸款，
11:27
There is senior debt.
有優先債。
11:28
There is junior debt.
有次順位債。
11:29
There is mezzanine debt.
有夾層債。
11:30
There is convertible debt, but the bottom
line, it’s all debt.
有可轉換債，但歸根究底，
11:33
It comes in different orders of priority in
a company and the rate your charge is inversely related to your security, so the better the
security and the less risk the lower the interest
它們在公司裡有不同的受償順位，
11:45
rate you’re entitled to receive.
貸款的順位越次級，
11:46
The more junior the loan the higher the interest
rate you’re entitled to receive, but you can avoid the complexity.
你只需要記住債券優先。
11:52
All you need to think about is debt comes
first.
它是一種較安全的貸款，但你的獲利機會有限。
11:54
It’s a safer loan, but you’re profit opportunity
is limited.
現在股權也有各種不同的形式。
11:58
Now the equity also has their varying forms.
它們在公司裡有不同的受償順位，
12:00
There is something called preferred equity
or preferred stock.
Now the good thing about the residual claim
is that business grows in value if you don’t owe your lender anymore, but all that value
goes to the stock holder.
剩餘求償權的好處在於，如果你不再欠貸款人的錢，企業的價值就會增長，而所有這些價值都歸股東所有。
12:25
So the question is why was the lender willing
to take only a 10% return when the equity earned a much higher rate of return and the
answer is when the business started there was no way of knowing whether it would be
successful or not and the lender made a bet
that if the business failed they could sell
off the lemonade stand.
萬一企業倒閉，他們可以變賣那個檸檬水攤。
12:40
It cost $300 to make it.
製作它花了 300 美元。
12:41
They would have some lemons, some lemonade.
他們會有一些檸檬，一些檸檬水。
12:43
Even if they sold it at a much lower price
than the dollar they originally projected the lender felt pretty comfortable that they
would get their money back, whereas the stockholder is really taking a risk.
即使他們以比原本預期低得多的價格出售，貸款人也覺得很有把握能拿回錢，而股東則是在承擔真正的風險。
12:52
They were betting on the profitability of
the company and they were taking a risk that if it failed they would lose their entire
investment, so they were entitled to get a higher return or have the potential to have
a higher return in the event the business
Lots of different ways people think about
risk, but the one that we think is the most important—you know a lot of people talk
about risk in the stock market as the risk of stock prices moving up and down every day.
We don’t think that’s the risk that you
should be focused on.
我們認為你不應該專注於那種風險。
13:16
The risk you should be focused on is if you
invest in a business what are the chances that you’re going to lose your money, that
there is going to be a permanent loss.
你應該專注的風險是，如果你投資一家企業，你損失資金的機率是多少，是否會發生永久性的損失。
13:21
When you’re thinking about investing your
own money, when you’re thinking about one investment versus another don’t worry so
much about whether the price moves up and down a lot in the short term.
當你在考慮投資自己的錢，當你在比較這項投資與另一項投資時，不要太擔心短期內價格是否大幅波動。
13:29
What matters is ultimately when you get your
money back will you earn a return on your investment.
重要的是最終當你拿回錢時，是否能賺取投資回報。
13:35
How do you think about risk?
你如何看待風險？
13:36
Well one way to think about risk is to compare
your risk to other alternatives, so you could buy government bonds and government bonds
are considered today the lowest risk form of investment and the US Treasury issues 10
year, 3 year, 5 year debt.
Because they want to earn a nice fat spread
over what they can make lending to the government because a startup lemonade stand business
is a higher risk business.
Equity investors sort of think about things
similarly, so the higher the valuation—the more risky the business the higher the rate
of return the equity investor is going to
股權投資者思考的方式也類似，所以估值越高——代表企業風險越高——股權投資者預期的報酬率就越高。
14:35
expect and the lower the risk business the
lower the return the equity investor is going to expect and equity investors don’t get
interest the same way a lender does.
企業風險越低，股權投資者預期的報酬率就越低，而且股權投資者不像貸款方那樣獲得利息。
14:46
What equity investors get is they get the
potential to received dividends over the life of a company.
股權投資者獲得的是在公司存續期間領取股利的潛力。
14:52
Let’s talk about raising capital.
我們來談談籌資。
14:55
You started this lemonade business.
你創辦了這家檸檬汁生意。
14:56
Now the point of this was to make money in
the first place.
重點是為了賺錢。
14:58
The business is doing very well yet I, having
started the business coming up with a name and the concept, hired all the people, I've
made nothing, right.
生意做得很好，但我——創辦了這家企業、想出名字和概念、雇用了所有人——卻沒賺到半毛錢，對吧。
15:08
So the business has grown in value, but where
is my money?
所以企業的價值增加了，但我的錢在哪裡？
15:10
I need money to buy a car for example, so
I want to buy a car for $4,000.
我需要錢買車，例如，我想買一輛4,000美元的車。
15:13
What are my choices?
我有哪些選擇？
15:15
What can I do?
我能做什麼？
15:16
Well we’ve taken all the cash the business
has generated.
嗯，我們已經把企業產生的所有現金都拿走了。
15:19
We’ve reinvested it in the business.
我們將其再投資於企業中。
15:20
Now the good news is we’ve taken all that
money.
好消息是我們已經拿到了所有的錢。
15:22
We’ve been able to use it to buy more lemonade
stands and these lemonade stands are more and more productive and it’s grown the value
of the business faster and faster.
我們能夠用這筆錢買下更多的檸檬攤，這些檸檬攤的生產力越來越高，讓這門生意的價值增長得越來越快。
15:29
Now my alternatives could included instead
of growing the business so quickly, instead of investing in more lemonade stands I could
simply have paid dividends to myself.
Now the good news about that is I get money
along the way, but the bad news about that is the business wouldn’t grow as quickly
and if you have a business as profitable as this lemonade stand company and you just open
a new lemonade stand and people earn—we
can earn hundreds of dollars in each new stand
it makes sense to keep investing.
在每一個新攤位賺進數百美元，那麼持續投資是有道理的。
15:50
Well how do I keep my business going and growing,
taking advantage of the opportunities, but take some money off the table?
那麼，我該如何讓我的生意持續運營並增長，把握機會，同時又把一些錢拿出來呢？
15:55
How do I do that?
我該怎麼做？
15:56
Well I could sell the company, so I could
sell my lemonade stand business.
嗯，我可以把公司賣掉，也就是卖掉我的檸檬攤生意。
15:58
I started this one in New York.
我在紐約創立了這家公司。
15:59
Maybe there is someone in New Jersey who wants
to buy me, consolidate with my lemonade stand company.
或許新澤西州有人想買下我，與我的檸檬攤公司合併。
16:05
Well the problem with that is once I sell
it I can no longer participate in the opportunity going forward and I believe in this business.
這樣做的問題在於，一旦我賣掉它，我就再也無法參與未來的機會，而我非常看好這門生意。
16:10
I think it’s going to be very successful
over time.
我認為隨著時間推移，它會非常成功。
16:13
So that’s one alternative.
這是一個選項。
16:15
The other alternative is I could pay a dividend.
另一個選項是發放股利。
16:17
We have by year five, over $2,000 sitting
in the bank, so I could pay that money out to the shareholders of the company, but that
would really slow my rate of growth going forward because I couldn’t afford to build
and buy more lemonade stands and it’s not
Well first of all, before we take our business
public we want to think about what it’s worth.
首先，在我們讓生意上市之前，我們要先思考它的價值是多少。
16:34
It’s year five.
現在是第五年。
16:35
We’ve been doing a good job.
我們做得很好。
16:36
We’ve got a business that is profitable.
我們有一家獲利的公司。
16:37
Everything seems to be going well.
一切似乎都很順利。
16:39
Well the problem is I've got some personal
needs.
嗯，問題在於我有一些個人需求。
16:41
I've started this company.
我創立了這家公司。
16:42
I've taken all the cash the business generates.
我拿走了公司產生的所有現金。
16:45
I've reinvested the cash in the business.
我將現金再投資於公司。
16:48
I bought more and more lemonade stands.
我買了越來越多的檸檬水攤。
16:50
The growth is accelerating.
成長正在加速。
16:51
I feel great about it, but I need money.
我對此感覺很好，但我需要錢。
16:53
How do I get money?
我該如何取得資金？
16:55
What do I do?
我該怎麼做？
16:56
Well I've got a company that generates a lot
of cash each year, but I've been reinvesting the cash, so one alternative is perhaps I
don’t grow as quickly.
I don’t buy as many lemonade stands and
I start sending that money back to me in the form of a dividend.
我不再買那麼多的檸檬水攤，並開始以股利的形式將錢匯回給我自己。
17:07
So each year I pay out some amount of cash
in the company.
所以每年我會從公司支付一些現金。
17:10
My need is really greater than that.
我的需求實際上比那更多。
17:12
There is only about $2,000 in the company
today.
公司目前只有大約 2,000 美元。
17:13
If I sent that out that is half of what I
need to by a car.
如果我把那筆錢匯出來，那也只夠我買車所需的一半。
17:15
So how do I get the rest of the money or how
do I get more money?
所以我該如何取得剩下的錢，或是如何取得更多錢？
17:19
Well I could sell the company, so that’s
one alternative, but the problem there is I've got this really good business.
嗯，我可以把公司賣掉，這是一個替代方案，但問題在於我有一家非常優秀的企業。
17:24
It’s growing really quickly.
它成長得非常快。
17:25
Why would I want to get rid of it at this
point?
在這個時間點，我為什麼要把它脫手？
17:27
So what should I do?
那我該怎麼做？
17:28
The other alternatives, other than selling
100% of the business is to sell a piece of the business and I can do that privately.
除了把公司百分之百賣掉之外的其他選擇，就是賣掉一部分的事業，而我可以私下進行。
17:31
I can find an investor who wants to buy a
private interest in the company and if the
我可以找到想購買公司私人股權的投資人，如果
17:43
business is worth enough I can sell them a
piece of the business and we can be successful.
這家企業夠值錢，我就可以賣給他們一部分的事業，我們就能雙贏。
17:55
The other alternative is I can take the business
public.
另一個選擇是讓公司上市。
17:56
Everyone has probably heard of an IPO, an
internet company is going public, people getting rich on an IPO.
大家可能都聽過 IPO（首次公開發行），一家網路公司上市，人們靠著 IPO 賺大錢。
17:58
What is interesting is an IPO doesn’t make
someone rich.
有趣的是，IPO 並不會讓人致富。
18:00
All it really does is it takes a business
that they already own and it sells a piece of it to the public and it gets listed on
an exchange like the New York Stock Exchange.
它真正的作用，是將你原本就擁有的企業，賣出一部分給公眾，並在像紐約證券交易所這樣的交易所掛牌。
18:14
An IPO, the abbreviation stands for initial
public offering and it’s initial because it’s the first time a company is going public.
IPO 是 initial public offering 的縮寫，initial（初次）是因為這是公司第一次上市。
18:20
Going public means you’re selling stock
to the broad general public as opposed to finding one investor buying interest in the
company and its offering because you’re offering people the opportunity to participate
and the way to do that actually is you get
It’s going to be your underwriter and you’re
going to put together a document called a prospectus, which is going to talk about all
the risks and the opportunities associated with investing in your company.
It’s going to have history of how the business
is done over time.
裡面會有公司長期的營運歷史。
18:50
It’s going to have the balance sheet that
we talked about.
裡面會有我們提過的資產負債表。
18:54
It’s going to have income statements from
the previous several years.
裡面會有過去幾年的損益表。
18:57
It’s going to have cash flow statements
and investors are going to read that document and they’re going to learn about whether
this is a business they want to invest in and how to think about what price they want
to pay for it.
裡面會有現金流量表，投資人會閱讀這份文件，藉此了解這是否是他們想投資的事業，以及他們願意出多少錢。
19:10
When you decide you want to take your business
public you’re going to have to reveal a lot of information to the public in order
to attract investors to participate and the Securities and Exchange Commission they’re
going to study this prospectus very carefully.
They’re going to make sure that you disclose
all the various risks associated with investing in the company and you’re also going to
have an opportunity to talk about the business.
他們會確保你披露所有與投資該公司相關的各種風險，而且你也有機會介紹這門生意。
19:30
It’s some combination of a marketing document
as well as a list of the appropriate risks that people should consider before buying
stock in the company.
這是一份兼具行銷文件性質的文件，同時也列出人們在購買該公司股票前應該考慮的適當風險清單。
19:40
That takes time to prepare.
這需要花時間準備。
19:42
It costs money to prepare.
這需要花錢準備。
19:43
You’re going to need good lawyers.
你需要好的律師。
19:45
You’re going to need a good investment bank
and you’re going to go through a process where you’re going to make a filing with
the FCC with a copy of the initial what’s called registration statement for the offering
or the prospectus.
The FCC is going to comment on it and eventually
you’re going to have a document that you can then sell shares to the public.
FCC 會對此提出意見，最終你會得到一份文件，然後就可以向公眾出售股票。
20:00
That is kind of an exciting time for you because
when you sell shares to the public that’s really, in most cases, the way to get the
optimally high price for the company, but you don’t have to sell 100% of the business
to the public.
In fact, typically you only sell a small percentage.
事實上，通常你只出售一小部分。
20:09
You get to keep the rest.
你可以保留剩下的部分。
20:10
You get to keep control of the company, but
you get to raise money in the offering and you can use that money to buy the car that
we were talking about before.
你可以保留公司的控制權，但你可以透過發行籌集資金，並用這筆錢去買我們之前提到的那輛車。
20:17
Now before you decided to go public or even
to sell it at all it’s probably a good idea to figure out what the business is worth.
在你決定上市甚至決定出售之前，先弄清楚這門生意的價值是個好主意。
20:22
So let’s talk about valuation or how to
value a business.
所以我們來談談估值，或者說如何評估一門生意的價值。
20:26
One way to think about the value of your business
is to compare it to other similar businesses.
思考你的企業價值的一種方法，是將它與其他類似的企業進行比較。
20:34
Now the stock market is actually a pretty
interesting place to look.
股市其實是一個相當有趣的地方。
20:35
Now the stock market is a list of companies
that have sold shares to the public and you can look in the New York Times or the Wall
Street Journal or online, on Yahoo Finance or Google or other sites and look at stock
prices for Coke, for MacDonald’s and what
those stock prices tell you is what the value
of the company is.
這些股價告訴你的是公司的價值。
20:50
And how do you figure out the value of the
company?
你要如何算出公司的價值？
20:55
Well you look at where the stock price is.
嗯，你看股價在哪裡。
20:56
You count how many shares are outstanding.
你計算流通在外的股票數量。
20:58
The shares outstanding will be listed in various
filings with the FCC.
流通在外股數將會列在向美國聯邦通訊委員會（FCC）提交的各種申報文件中。
21:02
You multiply the shares outstanding times
the stock price.
你要用流通在外股數乘以股價。
21:05
That tells you the price you’re paying for
the equity of the company, so if you go back to our example of our little lemonade stand
we have 1,500 shares of stock outstanding.
Well one way to look at it; let’s look at
other lemonade stand companies.
嗯，有一種看法是；我們來看看其他檸檬水攤公司。
21:28
Let’s assume other lemonade stand companies
have sold either in the private market, the public market for a price of 10 times earnings
or 10 times profit, so that will give you
假設其他檸檬水攤公司在私人市場或公開市場的售價是獲利的 10 倍，這樣可以讓你
21:48
a sense of value.
對價值有個概念。
21:49
You could look at the stock market if there
are other examples of a business similar to a lemonade stand company.
你可以看看股票市場，是否有其他類似檸檬水攤公司的例子。
21:54
Perhaps a company that sold soda every month
would be a good example, but let’s use a comparable example.
也許一家每個月賣汽水的公司會是個好例子，但我們用個可比較的例子吧。
22:01
So let’s assume another lemonade stand company
is trading at 20 times earnings in the stock market.
假設另一家檸檬水攤公司在股票市場上的交易價格是獲利的 20 倍。
22:08
Well we earned a dollar per share in year
five.
嗯，我們在第五年每股賺了 1 美元。
22:12
If we put a 20 multiple on that dollar the
business is worth, according to the comparable about $20 per share.
What would happen if we sold 200 of our shares
in the market?
如果我們在市場上賣出 200 股，
22:42
Well our interest in the business would go
down because today we own 66 and 2/3 percent or 2/3 of the company.
嗯，我們在這門生意中的持股比例會下降，因為今天我們擁有 66.67% 或 三分之二的公司股權。
22:47
A third is owned by our private investors.
另外三分之一由我們的私人投資者持有。
22:48
Well if we sold stock in the market, if we
sold 200 of the shares that we would own our ownership would go from 67% to 53%, so the
good news there is we’d still have control
of the business because in most public companies
owning a majority allows you to control the business going forward, but because the company
is now owned by public shareholders you have
公司的控制權，因為在大多數上市公司中，
23:11
to make sure their interests are properly
represented, so you have to have a board of directors, a group of individuals who represent
the interests of the shareholders who have
確保他們的利益得到適當的代表，所以你必須設立董事會，這是一群代表
23:25
a duty to make sure that their shareholders
are treated properly and you wouldn’t have the same degree of flexibility you had when
you were a private company because you have
有責任確保股東受到妥善對待，而且你無法像當初是私人公司時那樣靈活，
23:36
other constituencies that you need to think
about.
考慮到其他相關群體的利益。
23:39
Now the benefit of the IPO is the stock would
now be liquid.
現在 IPO（首次公開募股）的好處是股票會變得
23:43
There would be a market where it would trade
in the public markets and then over time if I wanted to sell more stock I could do so
or if new investors wanted to come in they
會有一個市場讓它在公開市場上交易，然後隨著時間推移，如果我想賣更多股票，我可以這麼做，
23:56
could buy stock and our stock would now be
liquid.
可以買進股票，而我們的股票現在將具備
24:02
It would make me feel better about this business
in terms of my ability to at some point exit or if a I wanted to raise more money I could
sell stock fairly easily in the market because
這會讓我對這門生意更有信心，
24:15
each day you could look up the price either
on the web or in the New York Times or otherwise and you could figure out what your business
is worth.
你每天都能在網站上、《紐約時報》或其他地方查到價格，
24:23
Okay, now how does this matter to you?
好，現在這對你有什麼重要性？
24:25
Now the purpose of the example of our lemonade
stand is just going to give you a primer on what companies are, what they do, how they
earn profits, what the various reports they
我們檸檬水攤的例子只是要給你一個入門知識，告訴你公司是什麼、它們做什麼、如何
24:36
provide to investors so investors can figure
out what they’re worth and the purpose of this lecture is to give you a sense of some
of the things you need to think about when
不論你是想投資檸檬水攤，還是想
24:46
you’re thinking about investing perhaps
some of your own money whether you want to invest in a lemonade stand or you want to
invest in a company on the market, so a few
基本要點值得思考。
25:00
basic points to think about.
其中最重要的一點是，如果你想成為
25:02
One of the most important is if you’re going
to be a successful investor it makes a lot of sense to start early.
可以買進股票，而我們的股票現在將具備
25:06
Now that’s kind of a hard thing.
這其實有點困難。
25:08
Today you’re probably a student.
今天你可能還是個學生。
25:09
You don’t have a lot of spare money.
你沒有太多閒錢。
25:11
Keys to Successful Investing Well let’s assume at 22 you have a pretty
good job.
成功投資的關鍵：讓我們假設你在 22 歲時有一份相當好的工作。
25:14
Instead of spending your money on gadgets
or a fancy apartment or not so fancy apartment or going out and drinking a fair amount you
put some money aside and you start investing money.
與其把錢花在小玩意、高級公寓（或沒那麼高級的公寓），或是出門喝掉大量酒水上，不如存點錢並開始投資。
25:23
Let’s say you could save $10,000 at 22 and
you can earn a 10% return on that money between now and the time you retire.
假設你在 22 歲時能存下 1 萬美元，且從現在到退休為止，這筆錢的年報酬率為 10%。
25:28
What would you have in 43 years?
43 年後你會有多少錢？
25:32
The answer, if you put aside $10,000, you
don’t save another penny and you invested it in your and you earned 10% on your money
each year you’d have $600,000 in year 43 and the reason for that is well in year 1
your $10,000 will become 11, in year 2 your
$11,000 would grow by 10% and so you would
be earning interest not just on your original principle, but you’d earn interest on the
interest you had earned the previous year and that compounding effect allows money to
grow in an almost exponential fashion.
Now obviously if you earn more than 10% you
can earn even higher returns.
當然，如果你的報酬率超過 10%，你就能賺得更多。
26:02
Now that’s if you put $10,000 aside at 22
you’d have $600,000 in 43 years.
所以，如果你在 22 歲存下 1 萬美元，43 年後你將擁有 60 萬美元。
26:07
That’s pretty good.
這相當不錯。
26:09
What is you had to wait until you were 32
when you earn the same 10% per annum?
但如果你等到 32 歲才開始，且同樣享有每年 10% 的報酬率呢？
26:17
The problem there is by year 33 you’d only
have $232,000.
問題在於，到了第 33 年，你只會有 23 萬 2 千美元。
26:20
Maybe that is not enough to retire, so the
key thing here is if you’re going to be an investor one of the most valuable assets
you have today as someone who is 18 or 19 years-old is your youth.
You want to start early so that your money
can grow over time.
你希望盡早開始，好讓你的資金能隨著時間增長。
26:30
Now what if you could earn 15%?
如果你能賺取 15% 的報酬呢？
26:32
I'll give a you better sense of how powerful
compounding is because remember at 10% for 43 years you’d have $600,000.
我會讓你更清楚複利有多強大，因為請記住，在 10% 報酬率下 43 年後你會有 60 萬美元。
26:38
That’s pretty good, but if you earned 15%
you’d have over 4 million.
這已經很不錯了，但如果你能賺取 15%，你將擁有超過 400 萬美元。
26:41
Now you’re in a pretty good position and
so obviously making smart decisions about where you put your money has a huge difference
in what you’re retirement assets are.
這時你的處境就相當好了，因此顯然，對於資金去向做出明智的決定，會對你退休時的資產產生巨大的影響。
26:49
Now obviously if could put aside more than
$10,000, if you could put aside $10,000 each year then you’re wealth would be quite enormous.
很明顯地，如果你能存下超過一萬美元，如果你每年都能存下一萬美元，那麼你的財富將會非常可觀。
26:57
Now just for fun if you were one of the world’s
great investors, Warren Buffet being a good example, if you could earn 20% per year for
43 years you’d have 25 million dollars.
Albert Einstein said the most powerful force
in the universe is compound interest, so the key is start early, earn an attractive return
and avoid losing money and you’re going to have a very nice retirement.
Well your 25 million dollars at 20% would
now only be worth a million eight in 43 years, so a key success factor here is not just shooting
for the fences, trying to get the highest return.
Okay, so as Warren Buffet says rule number
one in investing is never lose money and rule number two is never forget rule number one,
so if you can avoid loses and earn an attractive return over time you’re going to have a
lot of money if you can stick at it for a
長期堅持下去。
28:13
long period of time.
那麼，如何成為一位成功的投資者？
28:14
So how do you be a successful investor?
我假設你不會以投資為業。
28:16
Now I'm assuming that you’re not going to
go into the business of investing.
我假設你將會成為醫生或律師。
28:19
I'm assuming that you’re going to be a doctor
or a lawyer.
你將追求你的熱情，但你會有一些隨著時間慢慢存下來的錢，而我將就這個主題給你我的建議。
28:23
You’re going to pursue your passion, but
you’re going to have some money that you’re going to save over time and I'm going to give
you my advice on the topic.
這不一定是決定性的建議，但這是我會給我姊妹、我祖母的建議，告訴她們如果處於同樣的情況該怎麼做。
28:32
It’s not necessarily definitive advice,
but it’s the advice I would give my sister, my grandmother on what she should do if she
were in the same position.
我認為這可能是思考這件事的正確方式。
28:36
I think that’s probably the right way to
think about it.
第一，你如何避免虧損？
28:39
So number one, how do you avoid losing money?
哪些是好的投資去處？
28:42
What are the good places to invest?
我的第一個建議是，儘管有那個關於 lemonade stand（檸檬水攤）的故事，我還是會避免投資在 lemonade stand 上。
28:45
My first piece of advice is despite the story
about the lemonade stand I’d avoid investing in lemonade stands.
我的第一個建議是，儘管有那個關於檸檬水攤的故事，我還是會避免投資在檸檬水攤上。
28:54
I’d avoid investing in startup businesses
where the prospects are not very well known because again you don’t need to make 100%
a year to have a fortune.
我會避免投資那些前景尚不明朗的初創企業，因為你同樣不需要每年賺取 100% 的回報才能致富。
29:06
You just need to invest at an attractive return
10, 15 percent over a long period of time.
你只需要長期獲得 10% 到 15% 的誘人回報即可。
29:12
Your money grows very significantly.
你的財富就會顯著增長。
29:13
So how do you avoid the riskiest investments?
那麼，你該如何避開風險最高的投資呢？
29:15
My advice would be to invest in public securities,
invest in listed companies, companies that trade on the stock market.
我的建議是投資公開證券，投資上市公司，也就是在股票市場交易的公司。
29:21
Why, because those businesses tend to be more
established.
為什麼呢？因為這些企業往往更加成熟。
29:24
They have to meet certain hurdles before they
go public.
它們在上市前必須跨越某些門檻。
29:26
The stocks are liquid, so you can change your
mind if you want to sell.
這些股票具有流動性，如果你想賣出，隨時可以改變主意。
29:29
If you invest in a private lemonade stand
it’s hard to find someone to take you out of that investment unless that business becomes
fabulously profitable.
如果你投資一家私營的檸檬水攤，除非該業務變得非常有利可圖，否則很難找到人接手你的投資。
29:36
So that’s piece of advice number one, invest
in public companies.
這是第一條建議：投資上市公司。
29:38
Number two, you want to invest in businesses
that you can understand.
第二，你要投資你能理解的企業。
29:40
What I mean by that is there are lots of businesses
that you come in that you deal with in the course of your day in your personal life,
whether it’s a retail store that you know because you like shopping there or it’s
a product, your iPad that you think is a great
product, but you have to understand how the
company makes money.
但你必須了解這家公司是如何賺錢的。
29:56
If the business is just too complicated, you
don’t understand how they make money, even if they’ve had a great track record I would
avoid it and a lot of people thought Enron was an incredible business because it appeared
to have a good track record, but very few
Another very important criterion is you want
to invest at a reasonable price.
另一個非常重要的標準是以合理的價格投資。
30:15
It could be a fabulous business that is done
very well over a long period of time, but if you pay too much for it you’re not going
to earn a very good return investing in that company.
這可能是一家長期表現非常出色的優秀企業，但如果你出價過高，投資這家公司就不會獲得很好的回報。
30:25
The last bit is that you want to invest in
a business that you could theoretically own forever.
最後一點是，你要投資一家理論上可以永遠持有的企業。
30:30
If the stock market were to close for 10 years
you wouldn’t be unhappy.
即使股市關閉 10 年，你也不會感到不悅。
30:32
What do I mean by that?
我這話是什麼意思？
30:34
Again if you’re going to compound your money
at a 10 or 15 percent return over a 43 year period of time you really want a business
that you can own forever.
You don’t want to constantly have to be
shifting from one business to the next.
你不希望一直從一門事業轉移到下一門。
30:46
And what are businesses that you can own forever?
那麼，哪些事業是你永遠可以擁有的？
30:49
Well there are very few that sort of meet
that standard.
嗯，符合這種標準的事業非常少。
30:52
Maybe a good example is Coca Cola.
可口可樂或許是個好例子。
30:53
What is good about Coca Cola?
可口可樂好在哪裡？
30:54
It’s a relatively easy business to understand.
這是一門相對容易理解的事業。
30:58
You understand how Coke makes money.
你了解可口可樂如何賺錢。
30:59
They sell a formula or syrup to bottlers and
to retail establishments and they make a profit every time they serve a Coca Cola.
他們將配方或糖漿賣給裝瓶商和零售店，每賣出一杯可口可樂就能獲利。
31:06
People drank a lot of Coca Cola for a very
long period of time.
人們喝了很長一段時間的可口可樂。
31:13
The world’s population is growing.
全球人口持續增長。
31:15
They sell it in almost every country in the
world and each year people drink a little bit more Coca Cola, so it’s a pretty easy
business to understand and it’s also a business that I think is unlikely to be competed away
as a result of technology or some other new
Parents give it to their children and you
can expect it will be around a long period of time.
父母會給孩子喝，你可以預期它會存在很長一段時間。
31:39
I think that’s one good example.
我認為這是一個很好的例子。
31:41
Another good example might be MacDonald’s.
另一個好例子可能是麥當勞。
31:43
You may not love MacDonald’s hamburgers.
你可能不喜歡麥當勞的漢堡。
31:44
You may or you may not, but it’s a business
that it has been around for 50 years.
你可能會也可能不會，但這是一門已經存在 50 年的事業。
31:50
You understand how they make money.
你要了解他們如何賺錢。
31:51
They open up these little—build these little
boxes.
他們蓋這些小小的——建造這些小盒子。
31:54
They rent them to the franchisees.
他們把這些租給加盟業者。
31:55
They charge them royalties in exchange for
the name and they sell hamburgers and French fries and you know what?
他們以收取權利金的方式換取品牌名稱，然後賣漢堡和薯條，你知道嗎？
32:01
People have to eat.
人總是要吃東西。
32:02
It’s relatively low cost food.
這是相對低成本的食物。
32:05
The quality is pretty good and they continue
to grow every year.
品質相當不錯，而且他們每年持續成長。
32:07
So I think the consistent message here is
try to find a business that you can understand that’s not particularly complicated that
has a successful long term track record that makes an attractive profit and can grow over
time.
So what are the key things to look for in
a business as I say that lasts forever?
那麼，如我所說一門能永遠存在的事業，有哪些關鍵要素要注意？
32:21
Well you want a business that sells a product
or a service that people need and that is somewhat unique and they have a loyalty to
this particular brand or product and that people are willing to pay a premium for that.
While people are going to buy generic versions
of many kind of food products, flour, sugar, they don’t need to have the branded product.
雖然人們會購買許多食品的通路商版本，例如麵粉、糖，他們不需要一定要品牌產品。
32:46
When it comes to candy people don’t tend
to like the Walmart version or the Kmart version.
但說到糖果，人們通常不喜歡沃爾瑪版本或凱馬特版本。
32:52
They want the Hershey chocolate bar or the
Cadbury chocolate bar or the See’s Candy.
他們想要好時巧克力棒或吉百利巧克力棒或 See's Candies。
32:58
They want the brand and they’re willing
to pay a premium for that and so that’s I think a key thing.
他們想要品牌，而且願意為此支付溢價，所以這是我認為的一個關鍵點。
33:02
You want the product to be unique.
你希望產品是獨特的。
33:05
You don’t want it to be a commodity that
everyone else can sell because when you sell a commodity anyone can sell it and they can
sell it at a better price and it’s very hard to make a profit doing that.
If you’re investing for the long term you
want to invest in businesses that have very little debt.
如果你是長期投資，你希望投資在負債很少的事業。
33:18
In our little example before we talked about
our lemonade stand.
在我們之前的小例子中，我們談到了我們的檸檬水攤。
33:20
There is $250 worth of debt.
這裡有價值 250 美元的負債。
33:21
That didn’t put too much pressure on the
lemonade stand company, but if it had been $1,000 and we hit a rough patch the business
could have gone out of business for failure
So if you can find a company that can earn
attractive profits, that doesn’t have a lot of debt or they generate vastly more profits
than they need to pay the interest on their debt that is a safe place to put your money
over a long period of time.
You want businesses that have what people
call barriers to entry.
你想要的是那些具備所謂「進入壁壘」的企業。
33:49
You want a business where it’s hard for
someone tomorrow to set up a new company to compete with you and put you out of business.
你想要的是一家讓競爭對手在明天很難設立新公司來與你競爭，並把你趕出市場的企業。
33:56
I mean going back to the Coca Cola example.
我們再回到可口可樂的例子。
33:58
Coca Cola has such a strong market presence.
可口可樂擁有非常強大的市場地位。
34:00
People have come to expect when they go to
a restaurant they can ask for a Coke and get a Coke.
人們已經習慣於當他們去餐廳時，可以點一杯可口可樂，並得到一杯可口可樂。
34:05
It’s very hard for someone else to break
in.
其他人很難打入這個市場。
34:07
Of course there is Pepsi and there are other
soda brands, but Pepsi has been around a long time and Coca Cola and Pepsi have continued
to exist side by side over long periods of time.
It’s going to be very hard for someone to
come in and come up with a new soft drink that is just going to put Coca Cola out of
business, so when you’re thinking about choosing a company make sure that they sell
a product or a service that is hard for someone
else to make a better one that you’ll switch
to tomorrow.
別人很難做出更好的產品，讓你明天就想轉換過去。
34:30
Look for something where people have real
loyalty and they won’t switch and it doesn’t—even if someone offers the same, similar product
for 20% less they still want the branded,
You also want businesses that are not particularly
sensitive to outside factors, so-called extrinsic factors that you can’t control.
你還希望企業對外部因素——也就是你無法控制的所謂外在因素——不特別敏感。
34:48
So if a business will be affected dramatically
if the price of a particular commodity goes up or if interest rates move up and down or
if currency prices change.
所以，如果某種特定商品價格上漲，或者利率上下波動，或者匯率變動，就會對一家企業造成巨大影響。
34:51
You want a company that is fairly immune to
what is going on in the world and I'll use my Coca Cola example.
你想要的是一家對世界上發生的事情有相當免疫力的公司，我會用我的可口可樂例子來說明。
34:56
I mean if you think about Coca Cola it’s
a product that has been around probably 120 years.
我的意思是，如果你想想可口可樂，這是一款可能已經存在 120 年的產品。
35:04
Over that period of time there have been multiple
world wars.
在那段時間裡，發生了多次世界大戰。
35:07
There has been all kinds of you know, development
of nuclear weapons, all kinds of unfortunate events and tragedies and so on and so forth,
but each year the company pretty much makes a little bit more money than they made before
and they’re going to be around and you can
be confident based on the history that this
is a business that is going to be around almost regardless of whether interest rates are at
14%, whether the US dollar is not worth very much or the price of gold is up or down.
Those are the kind of companies you want to
invest in, in the long term, businesses that are extremely immune to the events that are
going on in the world.
這就是你想要長期投資的那種公司，那些對世界上發生的事件極具抵抗力的企業。
35:38
Another criteria, if you think back to our
lemonade stand company, as we grew we had to buy more and more lemonade stands.
另一個標準，回想一下我們的檸檬水攤公司，隨著我們規模擴大，我們必須購買越來越多的檸檬水攤。
35:49
Now those lemonade stands only cost $300 each,
but imagine a business where every time you grew you had to build a new factory to produce
more and more product and those factories
Well that company might generate a lot of
cash from the business, but in order to grow you’re going to have to just reinvest more
and more cash into the business.
嗯，那家公司可能會從業務中產生大量現金，但為了成長，你將不得不把越來越多的現金重新投資到業務中。
36:10
The best businesses are the ones where they
don’t require a lot of capital to be reinvested in the company.
最好的企業是那些不需要將大量資本重新投資到公司裡的企業。
36:16
They generate lots of cash that you can use
to pay dividends to your shareholders or you can invest in new high-return, attractive
projects.
它們產生大量現金，你可以用來向股東支付股息，或者投資於新的高回報、有吸引力的項目。
36:22
So the key here is low capital intensity,
so let’s talk about a low capital intensity business.
所以這裡的關鍵是低資本密集度，讓我們來談談低資本密集度的業務。
36:28
Maybe the best way to think about a low capital
intensity business is to think about a high capital intensity business.
也許思考低資本密集度業務的最好方式是去思考高資本密集度的業務。
36:33
If you think about the auto industry before
you produce your first car you have to build a huge factory.
如果你想想汽車業，在你生產第一輛車之前，你必須建造一座巨大的工廠。
36:38
You’ve got buy a lot of machine tools.
你得買很多工具機。
36:43
You have to make an enormous investment before
you can send your first car out the door and those machine tools wear out over time and
as you make more and more cars you have to invest more and more in the factories, so
it’s a business that historically has not
been very attractive for the owners of the
business.
從歷史上看，這對企業主來說並不是很有吸引力。
36:59
If you looked at the price of General Motors’
stock 50 years ago it actually hasn’t changed meaningfully even up until the last several
years before it went bankrupt.
如果你看看通用汽車50年前的股價，直到破產前的最後幾年，它實際上並沒有實質性的變化。
37:13
If you ignored the most recent period up through
the bankruptcy of GM very few people made money investing in GM over a 40 or 50 year
period of time and the reason for that is
that GM constantly had to reinvest every dollar
that they generated to build better and better factories so they can be competitive.
通用汽車必須不斷將賺到的每一美元重新投資，以建造越來越好的工廠，這樣他們才能保持競爭力。
37:36
If you compare that to Coca Cola while Coca
Cola there are bottling companies around the world a lot of those bottling companies aren’t
even owned by Coca Cola.
What they’re really doing is they’re selling
a formula and in exchange for that formula they get a royalty on every dollar that is
spent on Coca Cola.
他們真正做的是在銷售一個配方，而作為交換，他們可以從每一分花在可口可樂上的錢中抽取權利金。
37:53
Those are the better businesses.
這些是比較好的企業。
37:54
Another good example might be American Express.
另一個很好的例子可能是美國運通。
37:56
If you think about the American Express card
when you take your American Express card and you buy something American Express card gets
a few percent of every dollar that you spend.
So you put up the capital and they get a several
percentage point return on that.
所以是你出資本，而他們從中獲得幾個百分點的回報。
38:14
They get 3% of so of what you spent.
他們從你花的錢中抽取大約 3%。
38:17
So businesses where you own a royalty on other
people’s capital are the best businesses in the world to invest in.
所以，那些你擁有他人資本權利金的事業，是世界上最好的投資標的。
38:23
I guess the last point I would make is that
if you’re going to invest in public companies it’s probably safest to invest in businesses
that are not controlled.
我想我要說的最後一點是，如果你打算投資上市公司，投資於那些沒有被控制的企業可能是最安全的。
38:34
A controlled company is kind of like our lemonade
stand business that we took public.
一家被控制的公司，有點像我們讓它上市的那家 lemonade stand（檸檬水攤）事業。
38:37
The problem with a controlled company unless
the controlling shareholder is someone you completely trust, unless there is someone
that has a great track record for taking care of so-called minority investors, the non-controlling
shareholders it can be a risk of proposition
to invest in that business because you’re
at the whim of the controlling shareholder and even if the controlling shareholder today
is someone that you feel comfortable with
因為你受制於控制股東的意志，即使今天的控制股東是你覺得放心的人，
38:58
there is no assurance that in the future they
might sell control to someone else who is not going to be as supportive of the shareholders
of the business.
也無法保證未來他們不會把控制權賣給另一個不會那麼支持公司股東的人。
39:06
So it’s not that you just—you can simply
have a profitable business and a business that has done well.
所以，這並不是說你只要——你不能只擁有一個獲利的事業，或是一個表現良好的事業就滿足了。
39:12
You have to make sure that the management
and the people that control the business think about you as an owner and are going to protect
your interests.
你必須確保管理層和控制事業的人會把你當作所有者看待，並且會保護你的利益。
39:20
So these are some of the key criteria to think
about.
這些是一些需要思考的關鍵標準。
39:25
The Psychology of Investing and Mutual Funds Now when are you ready to start investing
money?
投資心理學與共同基金，那麼，你什麼時候準備好開始投資呢？
39:29
My guess is you’re a student.
我猜你是個學生。
39:31
You probably have student loans.
你可能有助學貸款。
39:33
Perhaps you even have some credit card debt.
也許你甚至還有一些信用卡債務。
39:35
You’re going to graduate.
你即將畢業。
39:36
You’re going to get a job.
你將會找到一份工作。
39:37
So you don’t want to jump right in and while
you have a lot of debt outstanding start investing in the stock market.
所以你不應該在背負大量債務的情況下，就急著跳進股市開始投資。
39:45
The stock market is a place to invest when
you’ve got a good—you have money you can put away that you won’t need for 5 years,
maybe 10 years.
So if you’re paying relatively high interest
rates on your credit cards you definitely want to pay off your credit cards first before
you think about investing in the stock market.
所以，如果你的信用卡利率相對較高，在考慮投資股市之前，你絕對要先還清信用卡債務。
40:01
You student loans are probably lower cost
than your credit cards, but again here my best advice would be if your student loans
are costing you six or seven percent well if you pay them off it’s as if you earned
a guaranteed six or seven percent return and
you’re just better off getting rid of your
credit card debt and even your student loan debt before you commit a lot of material amount
of money to the stock market.
在投入大量資金到股市之前，最好是先清償你的信用卡債務，甚至是助學貸款債務。
40:28
So what do you do with your money while you’re
waiting to invest?
那麼在等待投資的期間，你該如何處理你的錢？
40:34
The answer is you pay down your debt and you
want to have—even once you’ve paid off your credit card debts, perhaps you paid down
your student loans, you want to have enough money in the bank so that even if you were
to lose your job tomorrow you’ve got a good
6 months, maybe even 12 months of money set
aside.
6 個月，甚至 12 個月的備用金。
40:50
So these are some pretty high standards and
obviously therefore these make it harder to start investing earlier, but the safest course
of action in order to be a successful investor is be as—have as little debt as possible.
Be comfortable having some money in the bank,
so if you lose your job tomorrow you can live until to find your next opportunity and once
you’ve achieved those goals then put aside money that you don’t need to touch.
If you can do that then you can be a successful
investor.
如果你能做到這些，你就能成為一名成功的投資者。
41:05
So let’s talk a little bit about the psychology
of investing, so we’ve talked about some of the technical factors, how to think about
what a business is worth.
我們來稍微談談投資心理學，我們已經討論過一些技術性因素，以及如何思考一家企業的價值。
41:11
You want to buy a business at a reasonable
price.
你希望以合理的價格買下一家企業。
41:12
You want to buy a business that is going to
exist forever, that has barriers to entry, where it’s going to be difficult for people
to compete with you, but all those things are important, but even—and a lot of investors
follow those principles.
The problem is that when they put them into
practice and there is a panic in the world and the stock market is heading down every
day and they’re watching the value of their IRA or their investment account decline the
natural tendency is sort of to do the opposite
Generally it makes sense to be a buyer when
everyone else is selling and probably be a seller when everyone else is buying, but just
human tendencies, the tendency of the natural lemming-like tendency when everyone else is
selling you want to be doing the same thing
encourages you as an investor to make mistakes,
so a lot of people sold into the crash of ’87 when in fact they should have been a
buyer in that kind of environment.
這會誘使你這位投資者犯錯，所以很多在 87 年股災時賣出的人，事實上在那種環境下他們應該要買進。
41:41
So that’s why I talked before a little bit
about why it’s very important to be comfortable.
這就是為什麼我之前提到，保持心態平靜是非常重要的。
41:45
You want to be financially comfortable.
你希望在財務上感到寬裕。
41:46
If you have student loans you want to have
a manageable amount of debt.
如果你有助學貸款，你希望債務金額是可控的。
41:47
You probably don’t want to be paying any—you
don’t want to have any revolving credit card debt outstanding.
你可能不希望支付任何——你不想有任何循環信用卡債務未清償。
41:51
You want to have some money in the bank because
if you’re comfortable then the money that you’re risking in the stock market is not
going to affect your lifestyle in the short term.
As long as you don’t need that money tomorrow
you can afford to deal with the fluctuations of the stock market and the fluctuations,
depending on who you are can have a big impact on you.
People tend to feel rich when the stocks are
going up.
當股票上漲時，人們往往會覺得自己很富有。
42:03
They tend to feel poor when the stocks are
going down and the reality is the stock market in the short term is what Ben Graham or even
Warren Buffet called a voting machine.
Really stock prices reflect what people think
in the very short term.
股價確實反映了人們在非常短期內的想法。
42:09
If affects the supply and demand for investors,
buying and selling stocks in the short term.
它影響了投資者在短期內買賣股票的供需關係。
42:10
Over the long term however, stocks tend to
reflect the value of the businesses they own.
然而，長期來看，股票往往反映了它們所擁有的企業的價值。
42:12
So if you’re buying businesses at attractive
prices and you’re owning them over long periods of time and those businesses are growing
in value you’re going to make money over a long period of time as long as you’re
not forced to sell at any one period of time.
To be a successful investor you have to be
able to avoid some natural human tendencies to follow the herd.
要成為成功的投資者，你必須能夠避免一些隨波逐流的自然人性傾向。
42:25
When the stock market is going down every
day you’re natural tendency is to want to sell.
當股票市場每天都在下跌時，你的自然傾向是想要賣出。
42:27
When the stock market is actually going up
every day your natural tendency is to want to buy, so in bubbles you probably should
be a seller.
當股票市場實際上每天都在上漲時，你的自然傾向是想要買進，所以在泡沫時期，你或許應該當個賣家。
42:31
In busts you should probably be a buyer and
you have to have that kind of a discipline.
在崩盤時期，你或許應該當個買家，你必須具備這種紀律。
42:36
You have to have a stomach to withstand the
volatility of the stock markets.
你必須要有能承受股票市場波動的膽識。
42:40
The key way to have a stomach to withstand
the volatility of the stock market is to be secure yourself.
擁有能承受股票市場波動的膽識的關鍵方法，就是讓自己感到安心。
42:47
You’ve got to feel comfortable that you’ve
got enough money in the bank that you don’t need what you have invested unless—for many
years.
你必須感到安心，知道自己在銀行裡有足夠的錢，除非——在許多年內，你都不需要你所投資的那筆錢。
42:51
That’s a key factor.
這是一個關鍵因素。
42:52
Number two, you have to recognize that the
stock market in the short term is what we call a voting machine.
第二，你必須認識到，短期內的股票市場就是我們所說的投票機。
42:54
It really represents the whims of people in
the short term.
它確實反映了人們短期的反覆無常。
42:55
Stock prices are affected by many things,
by events going on in the world that really have nothing to do with the value of certain
companies that you’re investing in, so you’ve got to just accept the fact that what you
own can go down meaningfully in value after
That doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve made
an investment mistake.
這並不意味著你犯了投資錯誤。
43:00
It’s just the nature of the volatility of
the stock market.
這只是股市波動的本質。
43:01
How do you get comfortable?
你該如何讓自己感到安心？
43:02
Well the way you get comfortable with the
volatility is you do a lot of the work yourself.
嗯，讓自己對波動感到安心的方法，就是你自己做很多功課。
43:03
You don’t just buy a stock because you like
the name of the company.
你不能只因為喜歡某家公司的名稱就買進股票。
43:04
You do your own research.
你要自己做研究。
43:05
You get a good understanding of the business.
你要對這門生意有深入的了解。
43:06
You make sure it’s a business that you understand.
你要確保這是一門你能夠理解的生意。
43:07
You make sure the price you’re paying is
reasonable relative to the earnings of the company and we talked before a little bit
about earnings and how to look at a value of a business by putting a multiple on earnings.
A more sophisticated way to think about a
business is to—the value of anything is actually the amount of cash you can take out
of it over a very long period of time and people do build models to predict how much
cash a business will generate over a long
That is probably something a little bit more
complicated than we’re going to get into for the purpose of this lecture, but maybe
another way to think about it would be helpful.
這可能比我們這堂課要探討的內容稍微複雜一點，但或許另一種思考方式會有所幫助。
43:16
So when you by a bond and you get an interest
rate, so today the 10 year Treasury pays about 3%.
所以當你買進一張債券時，你會得到一個利率，例如現在的十年期公債殖利率約為 3%。
43:18
You’re earning 3% on your investment.
你的投資賺取了 3% 的報酬。
43:19
When you buy a stock that’s trading at a
multiple of its profits or a so-called PE ratio or a price to earnings ratio let’s
say of 10 times it’s very similar to a bond.
In fact, if you flip over the PE ratio, you
put the E on top, what the business is earning and you put the price that you’re paying
for the stock on the bottom it’s what the earnings are per share over the price you
get what’s called an earnings yield and
you can compare that earnings yield to for
example the 10 year Treasury, so a company trading at a 10 PE is actually trading at
a 10% earning yield, so you can actually think about stocks or buying equity in a business
as very similar to buying an interest in a
The difference is in the bond you know what
the coupon is going to be.
差別在於債券，你知道票息會是多少。
43:29
You know that 3% interest rate every year
for the next 10 years.
你知道在接下來的 10 年裡，每年都有 3% 的利率。
43:30
With stock you don’t know what the coupon
is going to be.
而股票，你不知道票息會是多少。
43:31
The coupon in the stock is how much profit
it earns and you can try to project that profit based on the history of the business and what
the prospects are, but that profit is going to move up and down every year.
股票的票息就是它賺了多少錢，你可以根據公司的歷史和前景來預測利潤，但這個利潤每年都會上下波動。
43:34
Now hopefully the long term trend is up and
so the way I think about the decision between buying a bond or buying a stock is I want
to make sure that the earnings yield, that earnings per share over the price I'm paying
for the stock is higher than what I could
get owning a Treasury and that earnings yield
is something that’s going to grow over a long period of time.
從持有公債獲得的報酬，而且這個本益比會在很長一段時間內持續增長。
43:39
Now if you had a business that was growing
at a very, very high rate very often—or growing its profits at a very high rate, very
often people are prepared to pay a pretty high multiple of those profits.
如果你有一家成長非常非常快的公司——或者說利潤增長非常快，通常人們願意為這些利潤支付相當高的倍數。
43:42
Why, because they expect that earnings yield
to grow, so if you had a business you might even pay—it might be cheap some day to buy
a business at 30 times its profits or a 3% or a 3.3% earnings yield if you think that
3.3% is going to grow at a high rate and eventually
get meaningfully higher to a 5, a 6, a 7,
a 8 or 10 percent rate.
顯著提高到 5%、6%、7%、8% 或 10% 的水準。
43:46
Those kinds of investments are much riskier.
這類投資風險要大得多。
43:47
The higher the multiple generally the higher
the risk you take because you’re betting more on the future of the business.
倍數越高，通常風險就越高，因為你把更多賭注押在公司的未來上。
43:49
You’re betting more on the future profitability.
你把更多賭注押在未來的盈利能力上。
43:50
So my basic piece of advice in recommending
the MacDonald’s and the Coca Cola’s of the world are to find businesses that where
you’re going in yield your earnings yield is high enough that you don’t need to be
right about a very high rate of growth into
the future in order to earn attractive rate
of return.
也能賺取有吸引力的報酬率。
43:54
Okay, so the few key success factors for being
an investor in the stock market are one, do the homework yourself.
好，那麼成為股市投資者的幾個關鍵成功因素是：第一，自己做功課。
43:56
Make sure you understand the companies that
you’re investing in.
確保你了解你投資的公司。
43:57
Two, invest money that you won’t need for
many years and three, limit the amount of—don’t borrow money certainly to invest in the stock
market and limit that amount of leverage, if any, that you have as an investor.
Okay, so after this brief 40 minute lecture
I wouldn’t just jump in immediately and start investing in the stock market.
好，那麼在這短短 40 分鐘的講座之後，我不會要你立刻跳進股市開始投資。
44:02
You have some work to do.
你還有一些工作要做。
44:03
There is some books you can read and we’re
going to provide you with a list of recommended books at the end of the lecture that will
help you learn more about investing.
有些書你可以閱讀，我們將在講座結束時提供一份推薦書單，幫助你更深入了解投資。
44:05
Almost everything you need to know about investing
you can actually read in a book.
關於投資你幾乎所有需要知道的知識，其實都可以在書中讀到。
44:06
I learned the business from reading books
as opposed to reading books and the experience associated with starting small and investing
in the stock market.
我是透過閱讀書籍來學習這門生意，而不是透過閱讀書籍以及在小規模投資股市的相關經驗。
44:08
Let’s say this is just not for you.
話說回來，如果這不適合你。
44:09
I don’t want to invest, buy individual stocks.
我不想投資、不想買個股。
44:10
It just seems too risky.
這看起來風險太大了。
44:11
I don’t have the time to do my own research.
我沒有時間做自己的研究。
44:12
What are your alternatives?
那你有什麼替代方案？
44:13
Well you alternatives are to outsource your
investing to others.
嗯，你的替代方案是將你的投資外包給他人。
44:14
You can hire a money manager or you can hire
a group of money managers and there are a couple of different alternatives for a startup
investor.
你可以雇用一位資金經理人，或者雇用一群資金經理人，對於初學投資者來說有幾種不同的選擇。
44:16
The most common alternative is mutual fund
companies.
最常見的選擇是共同基金公司。
44:17
So what is a mutual fund?
那麼什麼是共同基金？
44:18
A mutual fund is I guess technically it’s
a corporation, but where you buy stock in this corporation and the manager selects a
portfolio of stocks.
共同基金，我想嚴格來說是一家公司，你買這家公司的股票，而經理人則選出一組股票投資組合。
44:20
So what they do is they pool together capital,
money from a large group of investors.
所以他們的做法是集合一大群投資人的資金。
44:21
So say they raise a billion dollars and they
take that money and they invest in a diversified collection of securities.
假設他們籌集了十億美元，然後用這筆錢投資於一個分散的證券組合。
44:23
Now the benefit of this approach is that with
a tiny amount of money, even less than $1,000 you can buy into a diversified portfolio managed
by a professional manager who is compensated to do a good job for you investing in the
market.
So mutual funds are a good potential area
for investment.
所以共同基金是一個很好的潛在投資領域。
44:27
The problem is there are probably 7, 8,000,
maybe 10,000 different mutual funds and some are fantastic and some are not particularly
good, so you need to do research to find a good mutual fund manager in the same way that
you need to find individual stocks, so it’s
Number two and this is not necessarily in
this order.
第二點，這不一定是最優先的順序。
44:40
This probably should be number one, is you
want someone with a reputation for integrity.
這點或許才應該排在第一，那就是你希望找一位以誠信著稱的人。
44:41
Again if you’re starting out you probably
want to invest in some of—a mutual fund that is sponsored by some of the larger mutual
fund complexes as opposed to a tiny little mutual fund that is privately—by a mutual
fund company that you’ve never heard of.
There is some benefit in the larger institutions
that have—you can be more confident that they’re not going to steal your money.
投資於規模較大的機構有些好處，你能更放心他們不會捲款潛逃。
44:46
You want someone, an approach where the investor
invests money on the basis of value.
你希望找到一位基於「價值」來投資的人。
44:47
Now this sounds kind of obvious, but value
investing has a very long term track record and there are other kinds of investing including
technical investing where people are betting on stocks based on price movements, but I
highly recommend against those kind of approaches.
So you want someone making investments where
they’re buying companies based on their belief that the prospects of the business
will be good and that the price paid relative to what the business is worth represents a
significant discount.
You want to invest with someone that a long
term track record and I would say 5 years is the absolute minimum and ideally you want
someone who has 10, 15, 20 years of experience investing in the markets because there is
a lot that you can learn being a long term
You want someone who has a consistent approach,
where they haven’t changed what they do materially year by year, that they have a
stated strategy that they’ve kept to thick and thin that has enabled them to earn an
attractive return over their lifetime as an
investor and I always say in some way most
importantly you want someone who is investing the substantial majority of their own money
alongside yours.
我常說，某種程度上最重要的是，你希望找一位將絕大多數自有資金與你一同投入的人。
45:02
Obviously it shouldn’t be that they’re
investing your money.
顯然，不該是他們只投資你的錢。
45:03
This is what they do for you, but for their
money they do something meaningfully different.
這是他們為你做的事，但對他們自己的錢，他們做的應該截然不同。
45:04
You want someone whose interests are aligned
with yours.
你希望找一位與你利益一致的人。
45:05
If it’s a mutual fund you want them to have
a lot of money in their own mutual fund.
如果是共同基金，你希望他們在自己的基金中投入大量資金。
45:06
If it’s a hedge fund, which is a privately
sold fund for investors who have higher net worth you want a manager who is investing
alongside you as well.
如果是對沖基金（一種針對高淨值投資者私下銷售的基金），你也希望經理人與你一同投資。
45:08
I have a strong aversion to strategies that
require the use of leverage, so in the same way you want to invest in companies that use
very little debt you want to invest in investment strategies that you very little leverage.
If you can avoid leverage and invest in high
quality businesses or invest with high quality managers it’s hard to lose a lot of money
versus the use of leverage.
如果你能避免槓桿，投資於高品質的企業，或與高品質的經理人合作，相較於使用槓桿，你很難損失大量金錢。
45:13
Lots of money can be lost.
但使用槓桿可能會損失很多錢。
45:14
Now in the same way when you’re building
a portfolio of stocks where you don’t want to put all of your eggs in one basket and
you want a reasonable degree of diversification and the more sophisticated, the more work
you do, the higher the quality the business
is you invest in the more concentrated your
portfolio can be, but I would say for an individual investor you want to own at least 10 and probably
15 and as many as 20 different securities.
Many people would consider that to be a relatively
highly concentrated portfolio.
許多人會認為這是一個相對高度集中的投資組合。
45:20
In our view you want to own the best 10 or
15 businesses you can find and if you invest in low leverage, high quality companies that’s
a comfortable degree of diversification.
If you invest with money managers you probably
don’t want to put all your eggs in one basket there either and here you probably want to
have two or three different, perhaps four different alternative, mutual funds or money
managers, so again there you have some degree
We started with a little lemonade stand company
and the purpose of that was to give you some of the basics on how to think about a business,
where the profits comes from, what revenues are, what expenses are, what a balance sheet
is, what an income statement is, how to think
about what a business is worth, how to think
about what the difference between what a good business is versus a bad business, how debt
offered is generally higher, actually lower risk, but lower return, how equity investors
or investors who buy the stock or the ownership
of a business have the potential to earn more
or lose more and we use that background as a way to think about- We use that as the—just as the basics to
get someone of the vocabulary to think about
有潛力賺更多或賠更多，我們利用這個背景作為思考的方式——我們將其作為基礎，讓大家具備一些詞彙來思考
45:37
investing and we talked about investing in
the stock market.
投資，我們也談到了投資股市。
45:38
We talked about ways to think about how to
select investments, how to deal with some of the psychological issues of investing.
我們談到了如何思考選擇投資、如何處理投資中一些心理層面問題的方法。
45:40
We covered a fair amount of ground in a relatively
short period of time.
我們在相對短的時間內涵蓋了相當多的內容。
45:41
Now I entitled the lecture Everything you
Need to Know about Finance and Investing in Less Than an Hour.
現在我將這場講座命名為「一個小時內你必須了解的金融與投資的一切」。
45:43
Well it really isn’t everything you need
to know.
嗯，這其實並不是你需要知道的一切。
45:44
It’s really just an introduction and hopefully
I didn’t mislead you, induce you to watch this for an hour, but there is a lot more
that can be learned and there is wonderful books that can teach you on the topic, so
I think what is interesting about investing
whether you choose this as a fulltime career
or not if you’re going to be successful in your career you’re going to make some
money and how you invest that money is going to make a big difference in the quality of
life that you have and perhaps that your children
have or the kind of house you’re able to
buy or the retirement that you’re going to be able to enjoy and we talked about the
difference between a 10% return and a 15 and a 20% return over a very long lifetime and
what impact that has in terms of how much
wealth you create over the period, so investing
is going to be important to you whether you like it or not and learning more about investing
is going to have a big impact on your quality of life if money is something that you need
in order to meet some of your goals.
So I recommend this as an area worthy of exploration
and the more you learn about investing the more—these same concepts while they’re
useful in deciding how to invest your portfolio they’re also useful to you in thinking about
decisions like buying a home, making decisions
in your line of work, if you’re a lawyer
whether to hire additional people, these kinds of calculations and thought processes are
helpful and they’re helpful in life and I recommend that you learn more.
At [276], thevideodescribestheincomestatementastalkingaboutprofitability, revenues, andexpenses.
在 [276] 秒，影片將損益表描述為關於獲利能力、營收和費用的報表。
4Whatdoesthe 'Goodwill' of $1,000 representintheinitialbalancesheet?在初始資產負債表中，1,000 美元的「商譽」代表什麼？Whatdoesthe 'Goodwill' of $1,000 representintheinitialbalancesheet?
在初始資產負債表中，1,000 美元的「商譽」代表什麼？
✅ 正確！❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 C
At [153-162], thevideoexplainsthatgoodwillisthevaluecreatedbythefounder'sideasincetheinvestoronlygotathirdofthebusinessfortheirmoney.
