If we took all of the gold that has ever been mined in all of human history, put it all in one place in a giant cube here in Washington, D.C.
如果我們把人類歷史上所有開採出的黃金，全部集中在華盛頓特區，形成一個巨大的立方體。
00:07
It would look like...
它看起來會像...
00:11
THIS!
這樣！
00:14
Oh, this is it.
喔，就是這個。
00:17
I mean, it's pretty big, but I kind of thought it was going to be a lot bigger.
我的意思是，它確實很大，但我原以為會更大得多。
00:22
So what's all this gold even used for?
那麼，這些黃金究竟有什麼用途？
00:24
Well, 45% of it is used for, like, decoration and jewelry.
嗯，其中45%用於裝飾和珠寶。
00:28
You got necklaces, you got earrings.
有項鍊，有耳環。
00:31
You've got this giant Buddha that's just solid gold.
有這尊純金打造的巨大佛像。
00:35
There's an old Egyptian coffin made of pure gold.
有個古老的埃及棺材是純金製成的。
00:37
Largest gold coin in the world, it's got a kangaroo on it.
世界上最大的金幣，上面有隻袋鼠。
00:41
It's 45% of all the gold.
這佔了所有黃金的45%。
00:42
You've got a small portion of all this stuff that gets used for industry, stuff like the fillings in your teeth or electronic components that use the special properties of gold to work.
一小部分黃金用於工業，像是你的牙齒填充物，或是利用黃金特殊性質運作的電子元件。
00:53
But then a huge portion of all this gold is just sitting in vaults around the world, mostly in New York and London, in the form of bars, gathering dust.
但很大一部分黃金只是靜靜地躺在全球各地的金庫裡，主要在紐約和倫敦，以金條的形式蒙塵。
01:04
Governments and investors have been on a gold buying spree lately.
各國政府和投資者最近一直在瘋狂搶購黃金。
01:07
I mean, look at the price of gold.
我的意思是，看看黃金的價格。
01:08
President Trump is seeking more control of the Federal Reserve.
川普總統正尋求對聯準會更大的控制權。
01:12
Gold prices soared to a record high after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve.
在美國總統唐納·川普批評聯準會之後，黃金價格飆升至歷史新高。
01:18
Russia and China have been buying a lot of gold bars.
俄羅斯和中國一直在大量購買金條。
01:20
And Florida is trying to make it so that gold can be used as real money again.
而佛羅里達州正試圖讓黃金能夠再次被用作真正的貨幣。
01:25
It seems like gold is having a comeback, but actually what I'm learning is that it never went away in the first place.
黃金似乎正在捲土重來，但實際上我學到的是，它從未真正消失過。
01:31
Would you look at that?
你看看這個？
01:44
So how did all of this gold get here to Earth?
那這些黃金是如何來到地球的呢？
01:46
Well, a lot of the gold that humans mined came to us on one of these, an asteroid loaded up with heavy metals that formed from exploding stars.
If you zoom into one of those metals, you'll see some really weird-looking atoms.
如果你放大其中一種金屬，你會看到一些看起來非常奇怪的原子。
02:02
The electrons are moving nearly the speed of light.
電子以接近光速的速度移動。
02:04
This absorbs the blue light and reflects the yellow and red light.
這會吸收藍光並反射黃光和紅光。
02:09
Look, it's yellow. It's shiny, like the sun.
看，它是黃色的。它閃閃發光，像太陽一樣。
02:12
No other metal does it quite like this.
沒有其他金屬能像它這樣。
02:19
These gold deposits sat in Earth's trust for billions of years, undiscovered.
這些黃金礦藏在地球的信任中沉睡了數十億年，未被發現。
02:25
Some rivers dug in, eroding the Earth and revealing these pieces of shiny star dust.
一些河流挖入其中，侵蝕了地球，並揭示了這些閃亮的星塵碎片。
02:30
It caught the eye of some humans who noticed it was different.
它吸引了一些人類的目光，他們注意到它與眾不同。
02:33
Found this shiny rock that they dug out of the ground, that they could turn into things that it didn't tarnish.
他們從地裡挖出了這種閃亮的石頭，可以把它製成不會失去光澤的東西。
02:39
It was a dense metal, but it was somehow soft and workable.
它是一種緻密的金屬，但不知何故又柔軟且易於加工。
02:42
It didn't rust. It was incorruptible.
它不會生鏽。它是永不腐蝕的。
02:45
Was it eternal?
它是永恆的嗎？
02:46
Gold has chemical properties that have proven to be very interesting and useful to many societies across the kind of many centuries.
黃金的化學性質在許多世紀以來，對許多社會來說都證明是非常有趣和有用的。
02:55
And some of those properties have to do with its purity.
其中一些性質與它的純度有關。
02:59
Some of them have to do with its malleability.
其中一些與它的延展性有關。
03:02
Some of them have to do with its indestructibility.
其中一些與它的堅不可摧性有關。
03:04
And some of it has to do with its aesthetic interest.
其中一部分與其美學價值有關。
03:08
From China to the Andes, people independently fell under gold's spell.
從中國到安地斯山脈，人們不約而同地被黃金的魅力所吸引。
03:13
At first for decoration and celebration of their rulers and their gods.
最初用於裝飾，以及慶祝他們的統治者和神祇。
03:18
Indian healers made medicine with it.
印度治療師用它來製作藥物。
03:20
To the Inca, gold was the sweat of the sun.
對印加人而言，黃金是太陽的汗水。
03:23
They covered their temples and adorned their faces with it.
他們用它覆蓋寺廟並裝飾臉龐。
03:26
The Greeks made statues.
希臘人則用它製作雕像。
03:27
King Solomon played at his temple with it.
所羅門王用它裝飾他的聖殿。
03:30
And 6,000 years ago, this guy was buried with the gold bracelet, with beads, with the scepter, with a sheath.
六千年前，這個人被隨葬了黃金手鐲、珠子、權杖和劍鞘。
03:36
Oh, and not for his sword, but for his...
喔，而且不是為了他的劍，而是為了他的...
03:40
Yeah, I mean, I guess it was pretty valuable stuff.
是啊，我的意思是，我想那是非常有價值的東西。
03:43
Chinese emperors ingested gold trying to become immortal.
中國皇帝吞食黃金，試圖長生不老。
03:46
Which, spoiler alert, doesn't work.
劇透一下，這行不通。
03:49
But as humans gathered in larger and larger groups, empires grew.
然而，隨著人類聚集的群體越來越大，帝國也隨之崛起。
03:52
They became greedy and hungry for more land.
他們變得貪婪，渴望更多的土地。
03:54
The story of gold starts to evolve.
黃金的故事也開始演變。
03:57
Helping kick off one of the most significant psychological inventions humans ever came up with.
促成了人類有史以來最重大的心理發明之一。
04:03
The invention of money.
貨幣的發明。
04:06
It's a commonly accepted medium of exchange that many people are willing to accept it.
這是一種普遍接受的交換媒介，許多人都願意接受它。
04:11
In early societies, one of the most common things was cattle.
在早期社會中，最常見的交換物之一是牛隻。
04:15
Yep, we're talking about cows.
沒錯，我們在談論牛。
04:17
We'll get back to gold in just a sec.
我們很快就會回到黃金的話題。
04:18
Let's go inside the human brain to see how money evolves.
讓我們深入人類大腦，看看貨幣是如何演變的。
04:22
So yeah, instead of just trading something I want for something you want, humans started settling on commonly useful things that they could carry around and that would be valuable to most people.
Me and my team have been working on a new chapter trying to build a place for community-led journalism.
我和我的團隊一直在努力開創一個新篇章，試圖為社群主導的新聞業建立一個平台。
06:54
You can join the waitlist at newpress.com to get early access as soon as it's ready.
您可以在 newpress.com 加入候補名單，一旦準備就緒即可搶先體驗。
06:58
But for now, we're talking about gold.
但現在，我們還是來談談黃金。
07:00
So the belief in gold spreads throughout the world a few thousand years ago.
因此，對黃金的信念在幾千年前傳遍了全世界。
07:03
Not just as a thing that we do to worship the gods, but as a means of trade, a currency, a money.
不僅僅是我們用來崇拜神靈的東西，而是一種交易媒介、一種貨幣、一種錢。
07:09
This also happened with gold's forgotten cousin, silver, poor silver.
黃金被遺忘的表親——白銀，也發生了同樣的事情，可憐的白銀。
07:13
It just didn't get those fast-moving electrons to make it shiny.
它只是沒有那些快速移動的電子讓它閃閃發光。
07:16
And there's like too much of it, too.
而且它的數量也太多了。
07:17
Anyway, soon, gold was being stamped into standardized coins being used as a near universal form of money all around the world.
總之，很快地，黃金被鑄造成標準化的硬幣，成為全世界近乎通用的貨幣形式。
07:25
It was magic, but it was also mania.
這是魔法，但也是狂熱。
07:30
When the Spanish landed on the shores of modern-day Mexico in 1519, they met the Aztec civilization, and one thing caught their eye.
當西班牙人於1519年登陸現代墨西哥海岸時，他們遇到了阿茲特克文明，有一樣東西吸引了他們的目光。
07:39
Gold. Lots of gold.
黃金。大量的黃金。
07:41
Including these gifts that the Aztec king was presenting to these Spaniards, giving it to them for free.
包括這些阿茲特克國王贈送給西班牙人的禮物，免費贈送給他們。
07:48
The Aztecs were using lots of gold, but not as a currency, but as decoration, for worship, for armor, for blades.
阿茲特克人使用大量的黃金，但不是作為貨幣，而是作為裝飾、用於崇拜、用於盔甲、用於刀刃。
07:56
It wasn't economic, but to the Spanish, gold had become economic, a means of trade, it was wealth.
這不是經濟上的，但對西班牙人來說，黃金已經變得具有經濟意義，是一種貿易手段，是財富。
08:02
And here it was in extreme abundance, and they wanted it.
而這裡有極其豐富的黃金，他們想要它。
08:06
Or, in the words of one Spanish conqueror, we suffer from a disease of the heart that can only be cured by gold.
或者，用一位西班牙征服者的話來說，我們患有一種心臟疾病，只有黃金才能治癒。
08:15
The Spanish ended up massacring the Aztecs with their weapons and their diseases.
西班牙人最終用他們的武器和疾病屠殺了阿茲特克人。
08:21
It took as much gold as they could find.
他們拿走了他們能找到的所有黃金。
08:23
These statues and masks and jewelry and blades melted them down, shaped them into uniform units of value, and stamped them with a seal of authority.
這些雕像、面具、珠寶和刀刃被熔化，塑造成統一的價值單位，並蓋上權威的印記。
08:32
They spent the next century ripping through the Americas, chasing every rumor of golden cities and sacred wealth, places like El Dorado, Cibola, men fevered by greed for this shiny metal stuff, fueled by conquest and spoils that built their cathedrals,
and ended up kicking off a race among the European empires, a race for more and more gold.
並最終引發了歐洲帝國之間的競賽，一場爭奪越來越多黃金的競賽。
08:56
Let's not forget what the Spanish found when they came to the new world.
我們不要忘記西班牙人來到新世界時發現了什麼。
09:00
Oh, mount!
哦，一座山！
09:02
And then, of course, this leads to a cottage industry of renegade sailors, sometimes hired by other empires, trying to intercept these ships going to and from the new world, with hopes of finding one of these chests full of gold.
Now it enlivened the imagination and inflamed this greed in people's minds.
現在，它活躍了人們的想像力，並點燃了人們心中的貪婪。
09:48
I mean, I get it. How sick is the idea of a bunch of gold that never Russ buried somewhere in the Caribbean, ready to turn a peasant into a count?
我的意思是，我懂。一群黃金埋藏在加勒比海某處，隨時能將一個農民變成伯爵，這想法是不是很酷？
09:57
Great things.
很棒的想法。
09:58
God, I love the Count of Monte Cristo from the early 2000s.
天啊，我愛2000年代初的《基督山恩仇記》。
10:02
So by the 1800s, this psychological leap is complete.
所以到了19世紀，這種心理上的飛躍就完成了。
10:05
There is a near universal belief in gold as a currency, a means for exchange, the universal money.
人們幾乎普遍相信黃金是一種貨幣、一種交換媒介、一種普世的貨幣。
10:13
The European empires had already torn across continents in search for it, and now it was the turn of regular people.
歐洲帝國早已跨越大陸尋找黃金，現在輪到普通人了。
10:17
The dreamers, the risk-takers, the desperate men who joined the hunt for gold, men with nothing to lose, chasing rumors of riches, and doing pretty reckless and extraordinary things, all for a shot at striking gold.
A big group of them in 1849, fled into the western United States, helping build California, becoming the 49ers, all in search for gold.
1849年，他們中的一大群人湧入美國西部，幫助建立了加州，成為了「49人」， all in search for gold.
10:39
These guys are in Canada's Yukon, where it is very cold, and they're looking for gold.
這些人身在加拿大育空地區，那裡非常寒冷，他們正在尋找黃金。
10:42
I mean, this happened everywhere, South Africa, Australia, the Amazon.
我的意思是，這種情況發生在各地，南非、澳洲、亞馬遜。
10:46
Each place the same story.
每個地方都上演著同樣的故事。
10:48
Men intoxicated by the idea of getting rich off of gold, doing whatever it takes to get their hands on this stuff, even forcing others to mine it for them.
人們沉醉於靠黃金致富的想法，不擇手段地想得到這些東西，甚至強迫他人為他們開採。
10:58
This frenzy of hope, chaos, migration.
這股希望、混亂、遷徙的狂潮。
11:01
It was gold fever, and it didn't just move markets, it moved human beings, entire populations.
這就是淘金熱，它不僅推動了市場，更推動了人類，推動了整個人口。
11:06
It was, as the writer of this excellent book puts it, a murderous, cruel, intoxicating, brutal adventure that swallowed an entire civilization and spat it out as coins.
And I love when rigorous historians write beautiful language.
我喜歡嚴謹的歷史學家寫出優美的語言。
11:22
Okay, let's dive back into the brain really quick and see what's going on next.
好的，我們快速回到大腦，看看接下來發生了什麼。
11:27
Hold up.
等一下。
11:28
This is actually a perfect time for me to thank today's sponsor to get my gold so that I can keep running this company.
這其實是個絕佳的時機，讓我感謝今天的贊助商，他們提供黃金，讓我能繼續經營這家公司。
11:35
And it's actually something that I use. It looks like this.
而且這其實是我在使用的東西。它看起來是這樣的。
11:39
Enable threat protection.
啟用威脅防護。
11:41
Boom. I'm in.
搞定。我進來了。
11:42
So NordVPN used to just be a virtual private network, a VPN that allows you to connect to the internet via another country.
NordVPN 以前只是一個虛擬私人網路，一個 VPN，讓你透過其他國家連上網路。
11:49
These days it's a lot more. It's more and more a threat protection tool, a dark web monitor.
現在它已經進化很多了。它越來越像一個威脅防護工具、一個暗網監控器。
11:54
It's basically an all-around tool that allows you to connect to the internet and be safe from a whole host of different threats that exist online.
它基本上是一個全方位的工具，讓你連上網路，並且能防範網路上各種不同的威脅。
12:02
Threats to your data, threats to your identity, threats to your computer itself.
你的資料威脅、你的身份威脅、你電腦本身的威脅。
12:07
It blocks sketchy sites, phishing links, malware, even fake online shops.
它會封鎖可疑網站、釣魚連結、惡意軟體，甚至是假的網路商店。
12:12
I mean, I still use it mostly as a VPN.
我還是主要把它當 VPN 用。
12:14
When I'm in other countries I connect to the internet via the United States so that my computer doesn't freak out and make me do a bunch of two-factor authentication.
當我在國外時，我會透過美國連上網路，這樣我的電腦就不會出錯，也不會讓我進行一堆雙重認證。
12:22
It also allows me to watch stuff that is only available in other countries sometimes.
它有時也讓我可以觀看僅在其他國家才有的內容。
12:25
But yeah, it is this very easy tool that kind of just walks in the background.
但是的，它是一個非常簡單的工具，可以在背景默默運作。
12:29
You're not like pressing a lot of buttons for you to get the value out of this.
你不需要按很多按鈕才能獲得它的價值。
12:33
It's very affordable.
它非常實惠。
12:34
The dark web monitor can go out and check to see if your credentials have leaked into any hacker forums and they alert you right away.
暗網監控器可以出去檢查你的憑證是否洩漏到任何駭客論壇，並立即通知你。
12:41
So it's just a generally good tool to be connected to all of the time.
所以它是一個隨時保持連線的通用好工具。
12:45
If you've got auto-connect enabled, it just works in the background.
如果你啟用了自動連線，它就會在背景運作。
12:49
Threat Protection Pro is what you're looking for here.
你要找的是 Threat Protection Pro。
12:51
This is especially useful when you are at like a public Wi-Fi, like a cafe or an airport or something.
這在公共 Wi-Fi 環境下尤其有用，例如在咖啡廳或機場之類的場所。
12:57
So if you go to NordVPN.com slash Johnny Harris, that helps support this channel when you click that link.
所以如果你前往 NordVPN.com/JohnnyHarris，點擊該連結就能支持這個頻道。
13:02
It also gets you a huge discount on the two-year plan plus four extra months.
它還能讓你享有兩年方案的超大折扣，外加四個月。
13:07
Again, that's NordVPN.com slash Johnny Harris.
再次，那是 NordVPN.com 斜線 Johnny Harris。
13:09
Thanks NordVPN for sponsoring today's video.
感謝 NordVPN 贊助今天的影片。
13:11
With that, let's dive back into the brain and keep telling this story about gold.
說到這裡，讓我們回到主題，繼續講述黃金的故事。
13:15
It's about to get real juicy.
故事即將變得非常精彩。
13:18
We're about to take another big psychological leap here.
我們即將在這裡邁出另一個重大的心理飛躍。
13:21
The leap from a belief in this soft shiny metal to a belief in paper.
從相信這種柔軟閃亮的金屬，到相信紙張的飛躍。
13:27
One of the problems with physical gold is that if you want to trade it in large quantities, it's pretty heavy to carry around a lot of gold.
實體黃金的問題之一是，如果你想大量交易，攜帶大量黃金會非常沉重。
13:34
And what people decided was that they could deposit their gold into a bank.
人們決定他們可以將黃金存入銀行。
13:39
It would give them a bank note, which was essentially an IOU.
銀行會給他們一張銀行券，本質上就是一張借據。
13:42
One ounce of gold was worth approximately $20.
一盎司黃金約值 20 美元。
13:45
So basically if you had a $20 bill, you could go into a bank and redeem it for one ounce of gold.
所以基本上，如果你有一張 20 美元的鈔票，你可以去銀行兌換一盎司黃金。
13:50
Most individuals, when they got paid, they got to pay envelopes stuffed with bank notes.
大多數人領薪水時，會收到裝滿銀行券的薪資信封。
13:55
So that was the everyday medium of exchange.
所以那是日常的交換媒介。
13:58
As long as you trusted that the bank notes were good, you really didn't think about much which bank had issued the notes.
只要你相信銀行券是好的，你就不會太在意是哪家銀行發行的。
14:04
They all exchanged one-to-one against each other and against gold and silver dollars.
它們彼此之間以及與金銀美元之間都可以一比一兌換。
14:09
If you wanted gold instead of the bank note, you could come in and redeem the bank note and they would give you gold.
如果你想要黃金而不是銀行券，你可以進來兌換銀行券，他們就會給你黃金。
14:15
So now instead of believing in gold, we are believing in banks, trusting them that if they give us this piece of paper, it actually represents the gold that they are holding safe in their vault, and that at any moment, if I needed the gold, it could go to the bank, get the gold.
That is now a pretty far abstraction from cows, something that feeds us.
這與能餵飽我們的牛隻相比，現在是一個相當遙遠的抽象概念。
14:34
We're now carrying around paper.
我們現在隨身攜帶的是紙張。
14:36
But once again, it follows the same rule that if everyone believes it, and if the banks don't give us any reason not to believe it, then this worthless piece of paper turns into economic power, a currency.
And in fact, if we can do that, it's really convenient.
而事實上，如果我們能做到這點，那會非常方便。
14:50
It makes trade way easier.
這讓貿易變得容易許多。
14:52
Theoretically, everyone thrives here.
理論上，每個人都能在此蓬勃發展。
14:54
So, oh, yeah, silver.
所以，喔，對，白銀。
14:57
Okay, yeah.
好的，對。
14:57
Instead of gold in the vault, a lot of economies had silver in the vault, and a lot of economies were trying to have both metals, giving them each a specific value and pegging that value so that it wouldn't change too much.
It's really hard to have two metals as the foundation of your paper money.
以兩種金屬作為紙幣的基礎，實屬不易。
15:12
And then suddenly, if there's a big discovery of silver in Nevada or something, there's way more silver, so it throws off the value of silver, but it's pegged to the value of gold, and so all this arbitrage happens.
This was a huge decades-long debate here in the United States.
這在美國曾是一場長達數十年的巨大辯論。
15:24
It's got really political.
這變得非常政治化。
15:25
You've got this guy running for office, mostly on a platform of silver.
有個人競選公職，主要政見就是白銀。
15:29
And some people think that the Wizard of Oz is an entire commentary on this debate between gold and silver.
有些人認為《綠野仙蹤》就是對這場黃金與白銀辯論的完整評論。
15:34
And while reporting the story, I was multiple times very tempted to go down this rabbit hole.
在報導這個故事時，我曾多次非常想深入探究這個話題。
15:40
This is a video about gold.
這是一部關於黃金的影片。
15:42
Not about silver.
不是關於白銀。
15:43
Sorry, silver.
抱歉，白銀。
15:44
So we'll save that one for another day.
所以我們將那個留到改天再說。
15:46
And indeed, by 1900, gold, this shiny metal that humans have been using for thousands of years to do trade, endured as the one metal that we would base our entire economy off of, at least here in the United States.
And the United States, any bunch of other big countries, were on the gold standard in the early 1900s.
美國以及其他許多大國在二十世紀初都採用金本位制。
16:18
Okay, let's get back to the human brain because we're about to go through our third massive leap in the psychology of money.
好的，讓我們回到人腦，因為我們即將經歷金錢心理學的第三次巨大飛躍。
16:25
Let me warn you, this one's kind of weird, and I went to college for this one monetary policy in economics, and I'm going to do my best to explain it, but it starts to get a little bit wacky.
我先警告你，這有點奇怪，我大學主修經濟學中的貨幣政策，我會盡力解釋，但它會開始變得有點古怪。
16:34
We're also entering some controversial territory.
我們也正在進入一些有爭議的領域。
16:37
Economists, who are much smarter than I, debate this stuff, what I'm about to say.
比我聰明得多的經濟學家們，正在辯論我即將說的這些事情。
16:41
And they all have different takes, and they have strong feelings about it.
他們都有不同的看法，並且對此有強烈的感受。
16:43
So I'm going to do my best here, but in the comments, you're going to see some strong opinions.
所以我會盡力而為，但在評論區，你會看到一些強烈的意見。
16:46
I welcome them.
我歡迎這些意見。
16:47
Just be nice.
只是請保持友善。
16:52
So it's the early 1900s.
所以，時間是二十世紀初。
16:53
Banks have gold in their vault.
銀行在金庫裡存有黃金。
16:56
They give you a piece of paper that says you're entitled to the gold in the vault.
他們給你一張紙，上面寫著你有權領取金庫裡的黃金。
16:59
But it turns out human beings are struggling to adopt the paper thing fully.
但事實證明，人類很難完全接受這種紙幣形式。
17:04
There are a series of financial panics.
發生了一系列金融恐慌。
17:07
You probably don't want to get into the causes of the panics.
你可能不想深入探討這些恐慌的原因。
17:09
The banks had a limit to how many banknotes they could issue.
銀行發行鈔票的數量是有限制的。
17:12
So when people wanted more currency and they couldn't get banknotes, they would take gold and silver coins out of the bank vault.
所以當人們需要更多貨幣卻拿不到鈔票時，他們就會從銀行金庫取出金幣和銀幣。
17:18
And now the banks are losing reserves. Now they have a problem.
而現在銀行正在流失準備金。現在他們有麻煩了。
17:22
So here they all are, at the same time rushing to the bank to pull their money out.
所以他們所有人都同時衝到銀行提款。
17:26
All at once.
一次全部提走。
17:29
This is not good for an economy that grows when you give banks money to lend out to other people and trust that not everyone's going to try to take it all out at the same time.
We made a whole video about this, how modern finance and credit works and how that multiplies the money supply in these weird ways.
我們為此製作了一整部影片，關於現代金融和信用如何運作，以及它如何以這些奇特的方式倍增貨幣供應。
17:44
You can check that out.
你可以去看看。
17:45
But for now, just look at this picture of a bunch of people on Wall Street trying to get their gold out and know that this is not good for the economy.
但現在，只需看看這張華爾街上許多人試圖取出黃金的圖片，並知道這對經濟不利。
17:53
So the US government decides that having all of these decentralized private banks who are giving out paper money is just too prone to these vulnerabilities to everyone going and taking all the money out at the same time.
We're just going to call it the Fed from that one.
從現在起我們就稱它為聯準會。
18:18
Why did the US government decide they needed to centralize this around a single bank?
美國政府為什麼決定需要將這一切集中到一家銀行？
18:25
It's a federal institution that will cope with potential panics and shortages of currency and shortages of back reserves.
這是一個聯邦機構，將應對潛在的恐慌、貨幣短缺和準備金短缺。
18:32
The Fed would be the big bank that would be given a bunch of power to set the rules for the rest of the banks by issuing more currency when it's desired.
聯準會將是那家大銀行，被賦予大量權力，透過在需要時發行更多貨幣來為其他銀行制定規則。
18:41
Now it was still technically pegged to the gold standard, but a huge difference was now you couldn't just go to the bank and exchange your paper for gold.
當時它在技術上仍然與金本位掛鉤，但一個巨大的不同是，你現在不能只是去銀行將你的紙幣兌換成黃金。
18:48
And the Fed would be in charge of controlling how many of these bank notes were floating around the economy.
聯準會將負責控制這些鈔票在經濟中的流通數量。
18:53
And so in the United States we have the Federal Reserve that is the monopoly provider of dollars.
因此，在美國，聯準會是美元的獨家供應者。
18:59
Which in turn determines how the economy works, how people spend money, how people borrow money.
這反過來決定了經濟如何運作、人們如何花錢以及人們如何借錢。
19:04
And their goal at first was just to make sure that this doesn't happen again.
他們最初的目標只是為了確保這種情況不再發生。
19:11
Look at this fancy machine that the Fed has.
看看聯準會擁有的這台華麗機器。
19:14
Not a literal machine, this is completely symbolic.
這不是一台實體機器，這完全是象徵性的。
19:16
Don't over interpret the analogy here.
不要過度解讀這裡的比喻。
19:19
So to be clear, we're still in the gold standard at this point like 1913 or something.
澄清一下，此時我們仍處於金本位制，大約是1913年左右。
19:23
Every 20 bucks is pegged to an ounce of gold.
每20美元都釘住一盎司黃金。
19:25
But now the Fed has all of these levers to play with.
但現在聯準會擁有了所有這些可以操作的槓桿。
19:29
These levers that invisibly incentivize people to borrow money, it's the interest rate, to spend money.
這些槓桿無形中鼓勵人們借錢——那就是利率——鼓勵人們花錢。
19:35
And with their new power, the Fed starts fiddling around with all of these levers.
憑藉他們的新權力，聯準會開始擺弄所有這些槓桿。
19:38
Hey look, if you lower the interest rate, more people will borrow money.
嘿，你看，如果你降低利率，更多人會借錢。
19:42
They'll spend money, they'll start businesses, more jobs.
他們會花錢，他們會創業，會有更多工作機會。
19:45
Many critics have said that they kept interest rates below where they should have been.
許多批評者表示，他們將利率維持在應有水準之下。
19:50
They made credit to abundant and so you had an over investment boom in the 1920s.
他們使信貸過於充裕，因此在1920年代出現了過度投資的繁榮。
19:55
That although there were genuine investment opportunities due to technological change, electrification, the automobile, things like that.
儘管由於技術變革、電氣化、汽車等因素，確實存在真正的投資機會。
20:03
Wow, look, it's an economic boom.
哇，你看，這是一個經濟繁榮。
20:05
It's the roaring 20s.
這就是咆哮的二十年代。
20:06
The stock market just quadrupled in five years.
股市在五年內翻了四倍。
20:09
Times are good.
景氣很好。
20:10
Thanks in part to the Fed pulling some of these levers.
部分歸功於聯準會操作了其中一些槓桿。
20:13
Though this, like many assertions I'm about to say, is kind of debated.
儘管這一點，就像我接下來要說的許多論斷一樣，有些爭議。
20:16
Try not to get sucked on the economic debate rabbit hole here.
盡量不要在這裡陷入經濟辯論的兔子洞。
20:19
So things were good in the 1920s.
所以1920年代的景氣很好。
20:21
Maybe a little too good.
也許好得有點過頭了。
20:22
Uh oh.
糟了。
20:25
The Fed over amplified that boom and raised it to an unsustainable pitch.
聯準會過度放大了那次繁榮，並將其推高到不可持續的程度。
20:35
The bubble burst, the good times ended, and the U.S. and the rest of the world falls into a great depression.
泡沫破裂，好景不再，美國和世界其他地區陷入了大蕭條。
20:41
The money supply in the early years of the Great Depression started in 1930.
大蕭條初期，貨幣供應始於1930年。
20:45
There are back runs that drain a lot of the gold out of the banking system into individuals wallets and under their mattresses.
發生了擠兌，將大量黃金從銀行體系抽走，流入個人錢包和床墊底下。
20:52
Again, we made a whole video about what recessions and depressions are.
再說一次，我們已經製作了一整部影片，解釋什麼是衰退和大蕭條。
20:54
Check that out.
可以去看看。
20:55
Okay, but watch what happens here.
好的，但請看這裡發生了什麼。
20:56
One of the very important levers that the Fed has on this symbolic machine is to put more money into the economy, and they do this through a bunch of different indirect mechanisms.
It is a belief in the government's ability to run this machine properly.
這是一種對政府有效管理這個機制的信念。
23:49
This is called fiat money, and it's a whole lot different than cows where we started.
這就是所謂的法定貨幣，它與我們最初的牛隻交易大不相同。
23:53
Starting in 1933, this is how money was valued in the United States by a decree from above.
從 1933 年開始，這就是美國貨幣的價值衡量方式，是來自上面的法令。
24:01
Now, full disclosure, I went to Brigham and University, studied econ, and studied under a school of thought that was very much like pro-fed.
坦白說，我曾就讀於楊百翰大學，主修經濟學，並受到一種非常親聯準會思想流派的影響。
24:10
The Fed and fiat money is sort of like the best thing we got going.
聯準會和法定貨幣可以說是我們擁有的最好的東西。
24:13
It makes mistakes sometimes, but like, it's better than gold standard.
它有時會犯錯，但總的來說，它比黃金標準要好。
24:16
I intentionally talked to two economists for this story who were like a little more skeptical of that take to kind of help balance me out.
我特意為這個故事採訪了兩位對這種觀點持稍微懷疑態度的經濟學家，以幫助我平衡觀點。
24:24
And my hope is that the story I just told you about this moment in time is a fair characterization.
我希望我剛才講述的這個歷史時刻的敘述是公平的。
24:29
But if there's any professional economist watching, I would love your take on this.
但如果現在有任何專業經濟學家在觀看，我很想聽聽你們的看法。
24:33
Like, I would love a good faith critique or like an alternative view or whatever.
我很想得到一個善意的批評，或者一個不同的觀點，或者任何其他意見。
24:37
Like this is, economics is not science. It is psychology.
經濟學不是科學。它是心理學。
24:40
And so we get to debate it endlessly.
因此，我們可以無休止地爭論它。
24:42
So gold is out.
所以黃金出局了。
24:43
And so what are we at the end of the road for this shiny metal, this thing that humans have loved forever? Not so fast.
那麼，對於這種人類永遠喜愛的閃亮金屬，我們是否走到了盡頭？別高興得太早。
24:53
So 1944, World War II is winding down.
1944年，第二次世界大戰即將結束。
24:57
The U.S. is realizing that in just a matter of years became the most powerful country in the world and defeated the two rising empires and was now on top of everything.
美國意識到，在短短幾年內，它已成為世界上最強大的國家，擊敗了兩個崛起的帝國，並位居一切之上。
25:07
So they get all of their ally countries together, a couple dozen countries in a hotel in the mountains of New Hampshire with the goal of designing a new global economic system, a set of rules that everyone will play by.
And the U.S. of course takes the lead on what this system will look like.
美國當然在這套體系的外觀上起到了主導作用。
25:26
They propose that instead of creating some universal global currency as some were proposing, the world should instead opt for the U.S. dollar to become the universal globally accepted currency that everyone else's currency would be like attached to.
And the rest of the countries are like, um, seems kind of sketchy that we're just trusting you and your dollar.
其他國家則表示，嗯，我們就這樣信任你和你的美元，感覺有點可疑。
25:45
And the U.S. says, okay, but remember, all of our dollars are still backed up with gold.
美國說，好吧，但請記住，我們所有的美元仍然由黃金支持。
25:50
Normal citizens can't turn it in for gold, but we promise to you countries that all of your dollars can be turned in for real gold bars, $35 per ounce.
You can come to us in exchange for gold whenever you want and we promise we'll keep it in the vault.
你們可以隨時來找我們兌換黃金，我們保證會將其存放在金庫裡。
26:03
Speaking of the vault, look at our vault. This is Fort Knox. It's in Kentucky.
說到金庫，看看我們的金庫。這是諾克斯堡。它在肯塔基州。
26:08
This is where we keep our gold and we have a lot of it now because a lot of you all, world, gave us your gold in exchange for weapons we made for you during the war.
So the dollar is king and we'll back it up with gold, take it or leave it guys.
所以美元是霸主，我們會用黃金來支持它，要不要隨你們便，各位。
26:21
And they indeed took it. And the dollar became the king of global trade and investing.
他們確實接受了。美元成為全球貿易和投資的霸主。
26:27
And gold was once again at the center of our concept of money, but not for long.
黃金再次成為我們貨幣概念的核心，但好景不常。
26:32
Turns out the U.S. couldn't keep its promise to back up all of its dollars with gold in its vaults.
結果美國無法兌現承諾，用金庫裡的黃金來支持所有美元。
26:38
They were printing more money, they were giving it out, and the world catches on.
他們印了更多的錢，他們把錢發了出去，全世界都明白了。
26:41
And some countries get kind of pissed.
有些國家有點生氣了。
26:43
And so finally, there were so many dollars that they started to redeem them, Germany and France in particular.
最後，美元太多了，他們開始贖回黃金，尤其是德國和法國。
26:48
Like France apparently sends a navy ship in the 60s to show up to New York to be like, Hey, we're going to give you our dollars. We want our gold.
據說法國在60年代派了一艘海軍艦艇抵達紐約，說道：「嘿，我們要給你我們的美元。我們要我們的黃金。」
26:56
And the treasury ran out of gold and we shut the gold window in 1971.
財政部黃金用完了，我們在1971年關閉了黃金窗口。
27:00
I directed Secretary Connolly to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar in the gold or other reserve assets.
我指示康納利部長暫時中止美元兌換黃金或其他儲備資產。
27:07
And finally, the president at the time who is President Nixon comes out and is like, Okay, okay, okay. Yes, we don't have the gold anymore. You got us.
最後，當時的總統尼克森出來說：「好了，好了，好了。是的，我們沒有黃金了。你們說對了。」
27:13
But guys, come on. Be reasonable. We're all used to using the dollar by now. The whole global economy is used to this.
但是各位，拜託。講點道理吧。我們現在都習慣使用美元了。整個全球經濟都習慣了。
27:20
We're America. We've proven that we're stable. You can trust us. I mean, look at our economy and look at our military.
我們是美國。我們已經證明我們是穩定的。你們可以信任我們。我的意思是，看看我們的經濟和我們的軍隊。
27:27
We are safe and stable. Use our currency. Invest in our government and you can sell those bonds whenever you want.
我們是安全穩定的。使用我們的貨幣。投資我們的政府，你們可以隨時出售這些債券。
27:32
We'll give you dollars and you can use that to buy like oil and whatever you want in the global economy.
我們會給你們美元，你們可以用它來購買石油以及全球經濟中任何你們想要的東西。
27:37
We promise we're good. And the world without much choice was like, okay, fine.
我們保證我們很好。而世界別無選擇，只好說：「好吧，沒關係。」
27:44
And just when we thought we couldn't get any further away from cows, here we are.
當我們以為我們不可能再離牛更遠的時候，事情又發展到這裡了。
27:50
Our concept of money takes one more bonus step.
我們的貨幣概念又向前邁進了一步。
27:53
To hear we're so much of the global economy runs on a currency that is built off of collective belief in a story, in a system, in an S with a line through it.
In 19 people who sit in a fancy white building in Washington, D.C. and try to accurately predict the future and make decisions to pull proverbial levers to ensure that the dollar doesn't lose its value in all of our minds.
So have they done a good job? Well, a lot of people say yes.
那麼，他們做得好嗎？嗯，很多人說好。
28:27
People from the Fed would say, look, we've done a great job.
聯準會的人會說，看，我們做得很好。
28:30
You know, the Federal Reserve is better than putting this into a private market like we had before the Fed.
你知道，聯邦準備理事會（聯準會）比把這件事交給像聯準會成立之前的私人市場要好。
28:35
That being able to create new money in the economy helped us recover relatively quickly in the 2008 crash or during COVID.
能夠在經濟中創造新貨幣，幫助我們在2008年金融危機或新冠疫情期間相對快速地復甦。
28:42
But a lot of people say no, that the Fed does a terrible job.
但很多人說不，認為聯準會做得糟透了。
28:45
But I think the evidence says that actually they have not done very good.
但我認為證據表明，他們實際上做得並不好。
28:48
You know, the Fed basically caused the Great Depression.
你知道，聯準會基本上導致了經濟大蕭條。
28:50
That inflation is out of control and that the people running it are never faced with the consequences for not doing a good job.
通貨膨脹失控，而經營它的人從未因做得不好而面臨後果。
28:57
Several economists I talk to think that it's a lot of power to put in a government agency that isn't incentivized by the free market.
我與之交談的幾位經濟學家認為，將這麼多權力賦予一個不受自由市場激勵的政府機構，權力過於龐大。
29:05
But most monetary economists, the people who study this stuff, like the vast majority, think that, hey, the Fed's not perfect.
但大多數貨幣經濟學家，也就是研究這些東西的人，絕大多數都認為，嘿，聯準會並不完美。
29:13
It doesn't get it right all the time, but like this is the best version of a modern complex economy and it generally works.
它並非總能做對，但這是一個現代複雜經濟體系中最好的版本，而且它通常是有效的。
29:20
What you described as the Fed has made some mistakes, but we can't imagine living without it.
你所描述的聯準會犯了一些錯誤，但我們無法想像沒有它的生活。
29:25
That's probably 90% of the econ profession or maybe higher.
這大概是90%的經濟學界人士，甚至更高比例的看法。
29:30
But everybody now has grown up in a world where it's hard to imagine what things would look like without the Fed.
但現在每個人都在一個難以想像沒有聯準會會是什麼樣子的世界中長大。
29:36
And it's especially hard to imagine once you're on a fiat money standard.
而且一旦你採用法定貨幣標準，就尤其難以想像。
29:39
If you're on a fiat money standard, somebody has to control the quantity of fiat money.
如果你採用法定貨幣標準，就必須有人控制法定貨幣的數量。
29:43
And if it's not a central bank, how do you do that?
如果不是中央銀行，你該怎麼做？
29:46
I'm actually not going to have an opinion on this. I'm still kind of making up my mind.
我實際上不會對此發表意見。我仍在權衡。
29:53
So let's wind this video down by getting back to the central question at the beginning that we started with, which is, why are people buying gold again?
那麼，讓我們回到影片開頭的核心問題，也就是人們為何又開始購買黃金，來結束這段影片吧。
30:00
Why is this happening?
為什麼會這樣？
30:01
The price of gold is near an all-time high.
黃金價格接近歷史新高。
30:04
Have you seen the price of gold lately?
你最近有看黃金價格嗎？
30:06
All this up more than 13% this year.
今年以來，黃金價格已上漲超過13%。
30:08
So since we've gone totally off the gold standard since 1971, and in fact even even before that, people have started holding gold as a hedge against inflation.
因此，自從我們在1971年完全脫離金本位制以來，甚至更早之前，人們就開始持有黃金以對抗通膨。
30:17
Despite all of these mental leaps and these vast abstractions of economic value, here we are turning back to gold.
儘管有這些思想上的飛躍和經濟價值的巨大抽象概念，我們現在卻又回歸黃金。
30:24
First off, foreign governments never got rid of their gold. The US still has huge stores of thousands and thousands of tons of gold in Fort Knox and other facilities.
首先，外國政府從未放棄他們的黃金。美國在諾克斯堡及其他設施中，仍儲存著數以千噸計的龐大黃金。
30:33
And so do a lot of other countries. A lot of countries store their gold in the United States and New York City.
許多其他國家也是如此。許多國家將他們的黃金儲存在美國和紐約市。
30:39
In this gold reserve that is buried like 50 feet into the bedrock of Manhattan.
在這個埋在曼哈頓基岩下約50英尺深處的黃金儲備中。
30:43
And it just sort of sits there gathering dust and being a little reserve, just in case type of thing.
它就只是在那裡積灰塵，作為一點點儲備，以備不時之需。
30:49
But a lot of regular people, investors buy gold too.
但許多普通民眾和投資者也會購買黃金。
30:52
Whenever they start to feel a little bit sketchy about the big psychological bargain they've made with the government.
每當他們對與政府達成的巨大心理協議感到有點不安時。
30:58
This, all of this is pretty actually kind of squishy. It's very mental.
這一切實際上都相當模糊不清。它非常偏向心理層面。
31:03
All of this requires us to believe, but over here really requires us to believe.
這一切都需要我們相信，但這裡更是需要我們相信。
31:07
And even trust, trust a US government and an economy and recently that trust has been waning.
甚至信任，信任美國政府和經濟，而最近這份信任一直在減弱。
31:12
America has rival nations that are trying to get the world to stop trusting the dollar.
美國有競爭對手國家，正試圖讓世界停止信任美元。
31:16
They want to replace it. They don't like how much leverage it gives the US.
他們想取代它。他們不喜歡美元賦予美國的巨大影響力。
31:19
The US economy and government have also been kind of all over the place recently.
美國經濟和政府最近也一直變幻莫測。
31:23
The stop and go and stop and go of tariffs from the Trump's administration for a few months in office.
川普政府執政幾個月期間，關稅政策時而實施時而停止。
31:29
Got people really spooked. Like can we trust these people with our entire sense of value in our currency?
讓大家感到非常不安。就像我們能把貨幣的全部價值感託付給這些人嗎？
31:37
And now that Trump is attacking the Fed and threatening to control it, people are turning to gold in a bigger and bigger way.
而現在川普正在攻擊聯準會並威脅要控制它，人們正以越來越大的規模轉向黃金。
31:44
And for at least for now while I'm recording this, there seems to be some trepidation about people believing in the dollar.
至少在我錄製這段影片的此刻，人們對於相信美元似乎存在一些不安。
31:50
So that's why you see this kind of going back in time on the psychological leaps.
這就是為什麼你會看到這種心理轉變彷彿回到了過去。
31:55
In the last few months, while since the start of the Trump administration, there has been a loss of faith in the dollar vis-a-vis other fiat currencies.
在過去幾個月，自川普政府上任以來，人們對美元相較於其他法定貨幣的信心有所喪失。
32:04
People are worried inflation may go up either because of real shocks like the imposition of tariffs.
人們擔心通貨膨脹可能會上升，無論是因為關稅實施等實際衝擊。
32:11
So people are rushing to other stores of value that don't rely on a central government.
因此，人們正爭相轉向其他不依賴中央政府的價值儲存工具。
32:15
The shiny metal gold is one of them, but there's another currency that people are opting for that kind of looks a little bit like gold, at least mentally.
I think a lot of young people are comfortable with digital assets and digital currencies and would switch over to Bitcoin or something different.
我認為許多年輕人對數位資產和數位貨幣感到自在，並且會轉向比特幣或其他不同的東西。
32:33
Either one of those things would provide a check on the Federal Reserve because people would have an alternative and the Fed would know that if they created too much inflation, people would switch over.
Bitcoin and other crypto currencies may represent a future path for this psychological journey of money that we've seen here, but seems to be too early to tell.
比特幣和其他加密貨幣可能代表了我們在此所見金錢心理歷程的未來道路，但現在判斷似乎還為時過早。
32:53
But it does seem like we are entering a new chapter on this journey of our sense of value and currency and trust and belief.
但這確實看起來我們正在進入關於我們對價值、貨幣、信任和信念這段旅程的新篇章。
33:02
I'm not sure what it's going to look like.
我不確定它會是什麼樣子。
33:04
I don't presume to know, but as we've seen in this story, I think it's a pretty good guess that no matter what happens next.
No matter what we invent with crypto or whatever, that shiny metal, that thing that has fascinated us for thousands of years, the thing that can be divided and stored and doesn't tarnish and that shines like the sun, gold I think will always remain in the background as this thing that we turn to when things feel uncertain.
