00:00
but one of the most common questions i get from people is how do you actually tell whether or not a stock is cheap or
但我最常被問到的問題之一，就是如何判斷一檔股票是便宜還是
00:05
expensive and we're going to cover all of that going through fundamental stock analysis but i want to start with just
昂貴，我們將會透過基本面股票分析來涵蓋所有這些內容，但我想先從
00:10
some of the very basics of this and talk about what is fundamental stock analysis and why should you care as an investor
一些非常基礎的部分開始，談談什麼是基本面股票分析，以及身為投資人，你為什麼應該關心這個概念。
00:16
so when it comes to investing in the stock market there are typically two strategies that people follow one is
所以當談到投資股市時，人們通常遵循兩種策略，其中一種是
00:22
technical analysis and that is used more for short term trading day trading and swing trading and then fundamental stock
技術分析，這更多用於短期交易、當日沖銷和波段交易；而基本面股票
00:28
analysis is used more for investing long-term investing so when people are trading stocks they're looking for
分析則更多用於投資、長期投資。所以當人們在交易股票時，他們在尋找
00:34
stocks that have volatility they're looking to track the price movements look at things like volume and different
具有波動性的股票，他們試圖追蹤價格走勢，觀察像是成交量以及不同的
00:38
technical indicators like simple moving averages and if you guys want to learn more about technical stock analysis what
技術指標，例如簡單移動平均線。如果你們想學習更多關於技術股票分析的內容，
00:44
i might do is bring out an expert who can teach you about this right here in the group so if you guys want to learn
我可能會請來一位專家，直接在群組裡教導你們。所以如果你們想了解更多
00:49
more about that drop me a comment there over on the stock radar membership group and i will definitely do my best to get
相關內容，請在股票雷達會員群組留言，我一定會盡力
00:55
that to you guys but the reason why people use fundamental stock analysis is a way for them to determine the actual
為你們安排。但人們使用基本面股票分析的原因，是作為一種判斷資產
01:01
underlying value of an asset so basically this is what i look at fundamental stock analysis is used to
實際內在價值的方法。基本上，我看待基本面股票分析的方式是用來
01:08
determine the financial health of a company is this company in good financial health do they have good
判斷一家公司的財務狀況：這家公司的財務狀況良好嗎？他們的債務
01:13
coverage of their debt are they generating a lot of free cash flow or is this company in poor financial health
覆蓋率是否充足？他們是否產生了大量的自由現金流？還是這家公司的財務狀況不佳，
01:18
where they're burdened with debt they have more debt than they do have assets and maybe they're losing money or
被債務壓得喘不過氣，負債多於資產，也許他們正在虧損，或者
01:23
they're not making much money at all it's a way to determine the financial health of this company now technical
根本沒賺什麼錢。這是一種判斷公司財務狀況的方法。另一方面，技術
01:28
stock analysis on the other hand is used to look at the price history and other data like volume and different numbers
股票分析則是用來觀察價格歷史和其他數據，如成交量和不同的數字，
01:35
to determine the price movements in the short term so fundamental stock analysis is used to determine where is this
以判斷短期的價格走勢。所以基本面股票分析是用來判斷這家
01:42
company heading in the long term are they going to good places or are they going to bad places based on the
公司長期會走向何方，基於其財務狀況，他們是會走向好的方向還是壞的方向；而技術股票分析則是用來判斷短期內價格可能會如何發展。
01:47
financial health while technical stock analysis is used to determine in the short term what is that price likely
而技術股票分析則是用來判斷短期內價格可能會如何發展
01:53
going to do looking at things like support and resistance areas and all kinds of different indicators so traders
將會探討支撐與壓力區等概念，以及各式各樣的指標，因此交易員
01:58
use technical stock analysis to determine the optimal buy points for stocks and they're looking to do swing
使用技術面選股分析來決定股票的最佳買點，他們目標是進行波段
02:04
trades or day trades and make many small gains over a short period of time where long-term investors are looking to
交易或當日沖銷，在短時間內賺取許多小額利潤；而長期投資者則是希望
02:10
invest in a company hold it for many years and see that appreciate in value so people who are trading use technical
投資一家公司並持有多年，看著它增值。因此，從事交易的人使用技術
02:16
analysis to determine when is the best time to get into a position and people who use fundamental stock analysis are
分析來決定進場的最佳時機；而使用基本面選股分析的人則是
02:22
looking to invest for the long term and invest in a company with very good financial health fundamental stock
尋求長期投資，投資於財務狀況非常良好的公司。基本面選股
02:28
analysis tells you the health of the company and then technical stock analysis tells you the personality is
分析告訴你公司的健康狀況，而技術面選股分析則告訴你其「個性」：
02:33
this a durable investment that doesn't have much volatility or is this a tech investment or a biotech investment that
這是一項波動不大、耐用的投資，還是一項波動性很高的科技或生技投資？
02:39
is very volatile it's kind of like the personality of that investment and people who are looking to trade on small
這有點像是該投資的個性。那些想在一週內利用小幅價格波動進行交易的人，
02:45
price moves within the week that is what you're using you're using technical stock analysis and people who are
使用的就是技術面選股分析；而那些
02:50
looking to invest in the long term are going to rely on fundamental analysis now you could use technical stock
尋求長期投資的人，則會依賴基本面分析。現在，你可以使用技術面選股
02:56
analysis to find the optimal entry point by looking at support and resistance areas but you really don't have to do
分析，透過觀察支撐與壓力區來找到最佳進場點，但你其實不必
03:02
that so but if you do want to be a successful long-term investor you really do need to understand some of the basics
這麼做。不過，如果你想成為成功的長期投資者，你確實需要了解基本面分析的一些
03:07
of fundamental analysis in order to understand whether or not something is overvalued or undervalued you can do
基礎知識，才能了解某個標的是被高估還是低估。你可以進行
03:13
fundamental stock analysis you can look at the things that we do here on stock radar like the pros and cons the moat
基本面選股分析，可以查看我們在 Stock Radar 上分析的內容，例如優缺點、該公司的
03:19
for this company the barriers to entry and then looking at the actual fundamentals the key financial documents
護城河、進入壁壘，接著檢視實際的基本面，也就是關鍵的財務文件，
03:24
like the balance sheet the income statement and the cash flow statement you look at all these things and you
像是資產負債表、損益表和現金流量表。你檢視所有這些內容，並
03:29
determine the overall health of this company so your goal when performing fundamental stock analysis is to
判斷這家公司的整體健康狀況。因此，當你進行基本面選股分析時，你的目標是
03:34
determine the underlying value of the asset a lot of people get confused they look at the price of something and they
決定資產的內在價值。很多人會感到困惑，他們看著某個東西的價格，然後
03:39
say okay that price must tell me what the actual value is and in the next section we're going to talk about price
說：「好吧，那個價格一定告訴了我它的實際價值。」而在下一節，我們將討論價格。
03:45
versus value and how these are two entirely different things and i'm going to give you an
價值 versus 價格，這兩者是完全不同的概念，我稍後會舉例說明股價與股票昂貴或便宜與否完全無關。
03:48
example down below of how the share price has nothing to do with whether or not a stock is expensive or cheap but
但這就是基本面股票分析的基本策略：你先檢視公司的基本面，
03:54
this is the basic strategy of fundamental stock analysis you take a look at the fundamentals of the company
判斷這家公司的財務狀況，有些人選擇押注於實力堅強的公司，他們希望低買高賣，
03:59
you determine the financial health of this company and some people decide to bet on a strong company they're looking
或者有些人其實在尋找財務狀況非常糟糕、債台高築且長期可能下跌的公司，
04:04
to buy low and then sell at a higher price in the future or some people are actually looking for very poor companies
他們實際上會透過放空（short selling）來押注弱勢公司會下跌。
04:11
as far as very poor financial health that are burdened with debt and likely to fall in the long term and they're
我猜你們大多數人是想押注好公司，而不是押注壞公司倒閉，我自己個人不參與放空操作，
04:16
actually going to bet against weak companies by short selling them i'm assuming most of you guys are looking to
所以這部分我不會多加討論，但大致上人們就是這樣做：他們判斷財務狀況，
04:21
bet on good companies not betting against bad companies and i don't personally get involved with short
然後選擇押注好公司或放空壞公司。但現在，我想讓大家看看股價與股票昂貴或便宜與否完全無關，
04:26
selling so that's not really anything i'm going to discuss but that's pretty much what people are doing they
這裡有個非常簡單的例子。假設 A 公司的市值是十萬美元，
04:30
determine the financial health and they either bet on good companies or bet against the bad ones but now i want to
市值（Market Cap）很簡單，基本上就是所有流通股（outstanding shares）的總價值。
04:35
show you guys how the share price has nothing to do with whether or not a stock is cheap or expensive and it's a
假設他們有一千張流通股（對公眾和私人皆開放），這意味著他們的股價是每股一百美元。
04:40
very simple example here so let's say company a has a market capitalization of a hundred thousand
現在讓我們看看 B 公司，B 公司也有一十萬美元的市值，
04:46
dollars and the market cap is very simple that is essentially the total value of all of the outstanding shares
但他們不是有一千張流通股，而是只有一百張，結果這檔股票的股價就是每股一千美元。
04:52
so now let's say they have a thousand outstanding shares shares available to both the public and the private which
不懂如何進行基本面股票分析的人，可能只看這兩檔股票就會說：「好吧，每股一百美元很便宜，每股一千美元很昂貴」。
04:57
means that they have a share price of a hundred dollars per share now let's take a look at company b company b has a one
這就是為什麼很多人會掉入陷阱，買進低價股（penny stocks）或股價非常低的股票，
05:03
hundred thousand dollar market capitalization as well but instead of having a thousand outstanding shares
因為他們覺得這樣CP值更高（能買到更多股數）。
05:08
they only have 100 and as a result this stock is a thousand dollars a share now somebody who doesn't understand how to
他們只有100張，結果這檔股票一股就要一千美元。現在，不懂如何
05:14
perform fundamental stock analysis might just take a look at this stock and go okay a hundred dollars a share that's
進行基本面股票分析的人，可能只會看這檔股票然後說：「好，一股一百美元，那很便宜」
05:20
cheap a thousand dollars a share that's expensive and that is why a lot of people fall into the trap of buying into
一股一千美元，那很貴。這就是為什麼很多人會掉入陷阱，買進
05:25
penny stocks or stocks with a very low price per share because they think they're getting more bang for their buck
廉價股或每股價格非常低的股票，因為他們覺得這樣CP值更高（能買到更多股數）。
05:30
they look at a stock like amazon that's trading around fifteen hundred dollars a share as of making this video and they
他們會看像亞馬遜這樣的股票，根據本影片拍攝當時的股價，大約在一股一千五百美元左右，而他們
05:36
look at a penny stock that's trading for 15 cents a share and they go wow i can get a lot more shares of this penny
再去看一股只要十五美分的低價股，然後他們會說「哇，我用同樣的錢可以買到更多低價股的股數」，他們以為這樣能獲得更高的效益，但事實是各位，如
05:41
stock than i would of amazon and they think they are getting more of a bang for their buck but the truth is guys as
你們在這裡所見，這完全取決於那家公司發行了多少流通在外股數。亞馬遜做了一個
05:47
you can see here it all depends on how many outstanding shares they have of that company amazon has made the
決定，不透過股票分割來拆分他們的股份，他們偏好維持較高的股價，這跟
05:52
decision not to split up their shares through a stock split and they prefer to have a higher share price and it has
你實際擁有的公司所有權比例一點關係都沒有，因為這取決於市面上總共有多少股數。
05:58
nothing to do with the actual piece of ownership you're getting of that company because it depends on how many shares
所以這位先生想表達的主要重點是，基本分析會
06:03
there are out there so the main takeaways from this guy so that fundamental stock analysis is going to
顯示這家公司的健康狀況，而技術分析則顯示其個性。大多數長期投資人
06:07
show you the health of this company while technical stock analysis shows you the personality most long-term investors
會只專注於基本分析，而交易者和短期投資人則只會專注於
06:13
are going to focus solely on fundamental analysis and traders and short-term investors are only going to focus on
技術分析。他們不太在乎公司的財務健康，他們只在乎
06:19
technical stock analysis they don't really care about the financial health of the company they just care about the
那檔股票在短期價格波動中的「個性」。而要成為一個成功的長期投資人，你確實
06:23
personality of that stock in the short term price movements and to be a successful long-term investor you do
需要了解基本分析，但不一定需要了解技術分析。它只是
06:28
need to understand fundamental stock analysis but it is not important to understand technical analysis it's just
你工具箱裡的另一個工具，如果你想用可以用，但你絕對不必把它當作
06:33
another tool in your toolbox if you want to use it but you certainly don't have to have that as something that you are
你必須依賴的東西。人們會透過進行基本分析，來押注強勢公司並放空弱勢公司。
06:38
relying on and people are going to bet on strong companies and bet against weak companies through performing fundamental
再次強調，股價絕對與一檔股票昂貴或便宜無關。基本面
06:45
analysis and again the share price has absolutely nothing to do with whether a stock is expensive or cheap fundamental
投資人了解，實際的股價和所有權的價值是兩件完全
06:51
investors understand that the price of an actual stock and the value of that piece of ownership are two entirely
不同的事。而那些不了解基本分析的人，則相信價格實際上
06:56
different things and those who don't understand fundamental stock analysis believe that the price actually
決定了價值。你需要開始了解的是，這兩者是完全不同的東西，它們
07:02
determines the value and what you need to begin to understand is that these are entirely different things and they
的運作方式也不同。所以一旦你了解某樣東西的實際價格，並不總是等於其
07:07
operate in different ways so once you understand that the actual price of something is not always equal to the
內在價值時，你就能開始作為一位基本面投資人發掘一些機會。所以你的目標是
07:12
underlying value that is where you can begin to unearth some opportunities as a fundamental investor so your goal
內在價值時，你就能開始作為一位基本面投資人發掘一些機會。所以你的目標是
07:18
through fundamental stock analysis as we said before is to determine the overall financial health of a company and the
如同我們之前所說，透過基本面分析是為了評估一家公司的整體財務健康狀況
07:23
reason you are doing this is because you want to get an idea of the underlying value of that piece of ownership of a
你這樣做的原因是因為你想了解那部分所有權的內在價值
07:28
company remember that when you're investing in stocks this is actually an ownership interest in a real company and
記住，當你投資股票時，這實際上是對一家真實公司的所有權利益
07:34
you own a piece of that company and you want to understand what is this piece of ownership actually worth relative to the
你擁有那家公司的一部分，而你想知道這部分所有權相對於市場價格的實際價值
07:40
market price so first of all let's go ahead and talk about price price is very simply what you would expect to pay for
所以首先，讓我們來談談價格。價格很簡單，就是你預期為某樣東西支付的金額
07:45
something so if you went to the store right now and went to buy laundry detergent you would have an idea of what
所以如果你現在去商店買洗衣精，你會對實際要支付的價格有個概念
07:50
the actual price would be that you would pay for that now if you went to a store and all of a sudden laundry detergent
現在，如果你去一家商店，突然發現洗衣精一瓶要50元
07:55
was 50 a jug you would say this price is well above the value of this laundry detergent there's no way i'm going to be
你會說這個價格遠高於這瓶洗衣精的價值，我絕對不會買
08:01
buying that on the other side of the coin if you went to the store and you saw that laundry detergent was a dollar
反過來說，如果你去商店看到洗衣精一瓶只要一元
08:06
a jug you would say wow this is a great value i know what this laundry detergent is actually worth the price is well
你會說哇，這真是超值，我知道這瓶洗衣精的實際價值，這個價格遠低於它的價值
08:12
below the value so i'm going to buy five or 10 jugs and stock up this is exactly what people do when they're investing
所以我要買五瓶或十瓶來囤貨。這正是人們在投資時會做的事
08:18
and when they're looking at a stock and they see that the actual price is well above the value they say that's not
當他們看一檔股票，發現實際價格遠高於其價值時，他們會說那不是我想碰的東西
08:23
something i want to touch that stock is trading on a speculative level and the actual market price is well above the
那檔股票是在投機層級上交易，實際市場價格遠高於其內在價值
08:29
underlying value now on the other hand when they see something that is trading at a price well below the value they say
另一方面，當他們看到某樣東西的交易價格遠低於其價值時，他們會說
08:35
okay this is on sale it's just like having laundry detergent be on sale at the grocery store
好，這正在打折，就像在雜貨店裡洗衣精特價一樣
08:40
and they say okay i better stock up on this i better buy some shares of this company that is what you're looking to
他們說好，我最好趁機多買一些，我最好買一些這家公司的股票
08:45
do with fundamental stock analysis is determine whether or not an asset is overvalued or undervalued now as i'm
這就是你利用基本面分析想做的事，就是判斷一項資產是被高估還是被低估。現在，正如我
08:52
sure you know when you look at a stock online and you look at the price chart during a trading day the price goes up
相信你所知，當你上網看一檔股票，並在交易日中觀察其價格走勢圖時，價格會在一天中
08:57
and down and up and down throughout the day and i want to ask you a question do you think the actual underlying value of
不斷上下波動。我想問你一個問題，你認為那家公司或那檔股票的實際內在價值
09:03
that company or of that stock is changing every couple of seconds just like the prices the answer is no the
是否也像價格一樣，每隔幾秒鐘就改變一次？答案是，不。
09:09
actual value of something changes in the long term while the market price or the price people are willing to pay at a set
東西的實際價值在長期會改變，而市場價格或人們在特定時間點願意支付的價格在短期會改變，
09:15
point in time changes in the short term and once there is a deviation between the market price and the value that is
一旦市場價格與價值之間出現偏差，那就是潛在機會所在。所以讓我們接著看這三個例子。好的，綠線
09:21
where there is a potential opportunity so let's go ahead and look at these three examples here okay so the green
代表某個東西的實際價值，紅線代表市場價格。所以在左邊這裡，
09:26
line represents the actual value of something and the red line represents the market price so on the left here
這是某個被低估的東西的例子，實際價值遠高於市場價格。如果這是一檔股票，
09:32
this is an example of something that is undervalued the actual value is well above the market price and if this was a
這可能是一個買進機會，因為你可以用低於實際資產價值的價格買入。現在另一方面，
09:38
stock this could be a buying opportunity because you could buy in for less than the actual assets are worth now on the
讓我們看看某個實際被高估的東西，當市場價格高於該資產的內在價值時就會發生這種情況。
09:44
other hand let's look at something that is actually overvalued and that would happen when the market price is above
所以如果你是基本面投資者，你正在看這兩個例子，左邊的會是你有興趣買進的，
09:49
the underlying value of that asset so if you were a fundamental investor and you were looking at these two examples on
因為實際價值超過市場價格。現在，如果你想放空一家公司，你進行了基本面分析，
09:54
the left would be one where you'd be interested in buying because the actual value exceeds the market price now if
你發現一家公司財務狀況不佳，而且你發現實際市場價格的交易價位高於其價值，
09:59
you're looking to bet against a company and you performed your fundamental analysis and you found a company in poor
這可能是你決定放空或做空該資產的情況。現在，左下角這個是大多數人看到的，
10:04
financial health and you found that the actual market price was trading above the value that might be something where
他們不認為某個東西的價格和價值有任何區別，他們認為價格決定價值，但事實並非如此。
10:10
you decide to short or bet against that asset now this on the bottom left here is what most people see they don't think
再說一次，這些就是同樣那群人，他們看一檔股票，只看股價來判斷它是便宜還是昂貴，
10:17
there's any difference between the price of something and the value of something they think that the price determines the
我們在上一支影片中已經駁斥了這個迷思。所以要明白，這是大多數人看到的，
10:21
value and that is just not the case again these are the same people that look at a stock and determine if it's
他們看到價格等於價值，但市場價格與內在價值之間每天都在發生偏差。
10:27
cheap or expensive by looking at the share price and we already dispelled that myth in the last video so
為什麼會發生這種事？這是因為供需關係。供需會造成價格和價值的偏差。
10:32
understand this is what most people see they see the price equal to the value but there is deviation between market
供給是人們感到恐懼的結果，他們害怕持有這個特定的資產，所以他們會賣出。
10:37
price and underlying value taking place every single day now why does this happen this happens due to supply and
當圍繞該資產的整體情緒是恐懼時，它會陷入拋售，這可能為投資者創造買進機會。現在另一方面，
10:44
demand supply and demand is going to create price and value deviation so supply is a result of people being
供需，供需會造成價格與價值的偏離。因此，供給是源於人們感到
10:50
fearful they're afraid of holding this particular asset and so they sell it and when the overall sentiment around that
恐懼，他們害怕持有該項資產，因此他們會賣出。而當圍繞該資產的整體情緒是恐懼時
10:56
asset is fearful it's going to go into a sell-off and that may result in a buying opportunity for investors now on the
它會陷入拋售，這可能為投資者創造買進機會。現在另一方面，
11:02
other hand when people are greedy they're going to be buying assets they're going to be buying shares of
另一方面，當人們貪婪時，他們會買進資產，他們會瘋狂地買進那支股票
11:06
that stock left and right and that may result in that stock becoming overvalued that is where a couple of these quotes
的股票，這可能導致那支股票變得過於昂貴，這就是以下幾句名言的出處
11:12
come from for example buy from the pessimists and sell to the optimists you want to buy when people are fearful and
例如，向悲觀者買進，賣給樂觀者，你希望在人們恐懼時買進
11:18
then sell to them when they are greedy or the famous quote from warren buffett be greedy when others are fearful and
然後在他們貪婪時賣給他們，或是巴菲特那句著名的名言：在別人恐懼時貪婪
11:23
fearful when others are greedy you are looking to buy stocks when they are undervalued and then sell them when they
在別人貪婪時恐懼，你尋求在股票被低估時買進，然後在它們
11:28
are overvalued so the main takeaway for this video here is that the market price is going to change in the short term
被高估時賣出，所以這支影片的主要重點是，市場價格在短期內會變動
11:33
every couple of seconds what people are willing to buy or sell that stock for is going to change based on supply and
每幾秒鐘，人們願意買進或賣出那支股票的價格就會改變，這取決於供給與
11:39
demand or the market fear or greed but the actual underlying value changes in the long term the value of amazon is not
需求，或是市場的恐懼或貪婪，但實際的內在價值在長期會改變，亞馬遜的價值不會
11:46
going to change every couple of seconds but the market price of those shares is going to and what you are looking to do
每幾秒鐘就改變，但那些股票的市場價格會，而你所要做的
11:52
is find an opportunity where you see the market price is well below the underlying value that is an investment
是尋找一個你看到市場價格遠低於內在價值的機會，那是一項
11:58
that is undervalued and that is when you would want to buy but when it comes to fundamental stock analysis you have to
被低估的投資，那就是你想要買進的時機，但當談到基本面股票分析時，你必須
12:03
look at many different things to get an idea of the overall landscape of that investment and you can't rely on any one
觀察許多不同的事物，才能掌握那項投資的整體狀況，你不能依賴任何單一
12:08
indicator a lot of people make the mistake of solely looking at the p e ratio when determining whether or not a
指標，很多人在判斷一支股票是昂貴還是便宜時，犯了只看本益比的錯誤
12:14
stock is expensive or cheap and you just can't do that you just can't rely on one indicator and in the next video we're
你不能那樣做，你不能只依賴一個指標，在下一支影片中，我們將
12:20
going to talk about the peg ratio as well as the forward p e and we're going to explain where the p e ratio falls
談到PEG比率（本益成長比）以及預期本益比，我們會解釋本益比的不足之處
12:27
short but let's go ahead and talk about the price to earnings ratio in this video here so the way you calculate the
但讓我們先在這支影片中談談本益比，計算
12:33
p e ratio is very simple you're going to take the market price per share and divide it by the annual earnings per
本益比的方法非常簡單，你用每股市場價格除以
12:39
share and typically they're looking at ttm or the 12 trailing months so the earnings per share over the last 12
每股年度盈餘，通常他們看的是TTM（近十二個月）或過去12個月
12:44
months of the quarterly earnings reports and that's going to give you an idea of the earnings per share so apple stock as
的每股盈餘，這會讓你對每股盈餘有個概念，以蘋果股票為例
12:51
of making this had a market price of 177.66 and in the trailing 12 months they have
在製作此影片時，市場價格為177.66美元，在過去12個月中，他們有
12:56
had nine dollars and 70 cents of earnings so you take that 177.66 divided by 970 and this comes out to a p e ratio
有九美元和70美分的收益，所以你用177.66除以970，得出的本益比
13:04
of 18.3 now for those of you that do not want to be sitting down and doing math on paper or on your computer the good
是18.3。對於那些不想坐在紙上或電腦上做數學計算的人，好
13:11
news is this is calculated for you but it's very important to understand where these numbers are coming from when
消息是這已經為你計算好了，但了解這些數字從何而來非常重要。當
13:17
you're doing fundamental analysis it's important to understand the actual theory behind this and where you
你進行基本面分析時，了解背後的實際理論以及你
13:22
calculate the p e ratio now what's also important to note is that you can use the p e ratio as a comparison tool but
如何計算本益比是很重要的。另外值得注意的是，你可以將本益比作為比較工具，但
13:29
you can't compare companies from one industry or sector to another because every single sector or industry out
你不能比較不同行業或板塊的公司，因為每一個板塊或行業
13:35
there has a different level of normality or what is normal so just for an example of this let's take a look at this here
都有不同的正常水平或什麼是正常的。所以，舉個例子，讓我們看看這裡
13:42
the construction materials industry has an average p e of 22 and that's a 2018 estimate while the semiconductors
建築材料行業的平均本益比是22，這是2018年的估計值，而半導體
13:49
industry has a price to earnings ratio of 80 and that's again a 2018 estimate so you could not compare a construction
行業的本益比是80，這同樣是2018年的估計值。所以你不能將建築
13:56
material stock to a semiconductor stock because the levels of normality are almost four times the difference here
材料股與半導體股進行比較，因為這裡的正常水平幾乎有四倍的差異，
14:01
it's almost four times more expensive for a semiconductor stock and that is primarily due to the fact that the
半導體股的價格幾乎貴了四倍，這主要是因為
14:07
projected growth for the semiconductors industry is significantly higher than the projected growth for the
半導體行業的預期增長率遠高於
14:13
construction materials industry but let's take a step back and talk about what this p e ratio actually means so we
建築材料行業的預期增長率。但讓我們退一步，談談這個本益比的實際意義。我們
14:19
said apple has a p e of 18.3 but what does that actually mean that means that apple stock is trading at an earnings
說蘋果的本益比是18.3，但這到底意味著什麼？這意味著蘋果股的交易價格是其收益的
14:26
multiple of 18.3 or as an investor you would expect to pay 18 dollars and 32 cents for exposure to one dollar of
18.3倍，或者作為投資者，你預期要支付18美元32美分來獲得1美元的
14:33
company earnings so if a stock had a p e of 80 for example the semiconductors industry you're paying eighty dollars
公司收益。所以，如果一檔股票的本益比是80，例如半導體行業，你今天支付80美元
14:40
today for one dollar of company earnings per year so that shows you how stocks become overvalued or undervalued looking
來換取每年1美元的公司收益。這就向你展示了股票如何變得高估或低估，透過
14:46
at the price to earnings ratio and certain industries become priced in at a higher price today due to the fact that
觀察本益比，某些行業今天的定價較高，因為
14:52
there is greater potential growth expected now we're going to talk about that more in the next video when we go
預期有更大的增長潛力。我們將在下一部影片中更詳細地討論這一點，當我們深入
14:57
into the peg ratio but just understand that when there's more anticipated growth for an industry or a particular
本益成長比（PEG ratio）時，但請先理解，當一個行業或特定領域有更多預期增長時
15:03
stock you're going to see that p e ratio climb so when you're looking at stocks out there you're going to typically see
當你觀察股票時，你會看到本益比攀升，因此當你觀察市場上的股票時，通常會發現
15:09
a higher p e ratio with growth stocks because they're going to grow more in the future and income stocks are going
成長股的本益比較高，因為它們未來的成長幅度更大，而收益股的
15:14
to have a lower p e ratio because there is less anticipated growth expected so now that we know what the p e ratio
本益比較低，因為預期的成長幅度較小。既然我們知道了本益比
15:20
actually is how do we use this tool for comparison so number one you can compare the p e ratio of a company to the
的定義，我們該如何運用這個工具進行比較呢？首先，你可以將一家公司的本益比與
15:27
industry average and i recommend using the fidelity sectors and industries tool it's very helpful for getting industry
產業平均值進行比較，我推薦使用富達（Fidelity）的板塊與產業工具，這對於獲取產業
15:33
data and average p e ratios as well as industry growth statistics so you can compare it to the industry average or
數據和平均本益比以及產業增長統計數據非常有幫助，因此你可以將其與產業平均值比較，或是
15:39
compare it to the competition so for example here we have jp morgan stock has a p e ratio of 18.4 while bank of
與競爭對手比較。例如，摩根大通（JP Morgan）股票的本益比為 18.4，而美國銀行（Bank of
15:47
america stock has a p e ratio of 17.7 so looking at those figures right there based on the price to earnings ratio
America）股票的本益比為 17.7，僅看這些數字，根據本益比，
15:53
jpmorgan stock is a little bit more expensive than bank of america stock now the other way you can use the p e ratio
摩根大通股票比美國銀行股票稍微貴一點。另一種運用本益比的
15:59
is to compare the price of this stock to the overall market average so we know that apple's p e ratio is 18.3 but the
方式是將這支股票的價格與整體市場平均值進行比較。我們知道蘋果（Apple）的本益比是 18.3，但
16:07
average p e ratio of the s p 500 is a 25.7 so in relation to the overall market we can see that apple stock is
標普 500 指數（S&P 500）的平均本益比是 25.7，因此相對於整體市場，我們可以看出蘋果股票
16:14
significantly cheaper so that is basically how you use the p e ratio it is a comparison tool between the market
便宜得多。這基本上就是你如何使用本益比，它是一個比較工具，用於比較整體市場
16:21
as a whole and that stock or stocks within the same industry or comparing this stock to that industry or sector
與該股票，或同一產業內的股票，又或是將這支股票與該產業或板塊的
16:27
average we're going to talk about two ratios that i find to be more useful in the p e ratio and those are the p e g
平均值進行比較。我們將討論兩種我認為比本益比更有用的比率，那就是 PEG
16:33
ratio as well as the forward pe so we already talked about how the p e ratio is a useful comparison tool when
比率以及預期本益比（Forward P/E）。我們已經討論過，當
16:39
comparing stocks within the same industry or if you're looking at the price of that stock compared to the
比較同一產業內的股票，或是觀察該股票價格相對於
16:44
overall market but now i'm going to point out the major flaw of the price to earnings ratio and the main reason why
整體市場時，本益比是一個有用的比較工具。但現在我要指出本益比的主要缺陷，以及為何
16:50
you cannot rely solely on this financial ratio that is the fact that the p e ratio does not calculate any anticipated
你不能僅依賴這個財務比率的主要原因，那就是本益比並未將任何預期的
16:57
growth into that number so let me go ahead and show you guys an example of this let's say tech company a has a p e
成長計入該數字中。讓我來給大家舉個例子，假設科技公司 A 的本益比
17:03
ratio of 25 but they have an anticipated growth rate of 5 percent per year while tech company b has a p e ratio of 75 but
是 25，但其預期年成長率為 5%，而科技公司 B 的本益比是 75，但
17:12
they have an anticipated growth rate of 20 percent so if you're looking at just the p e ratio we would say okay tech
它們的預期成長率為 20%，所以如果你只看本益比，我們會說科技公司 B 比科技公司 A 貴得多
17:18
company b is a lot more expensive than tech company a but when you actually consider the fact that tech company b is
但當你實際考慮到科技公司 B 的成長速度會比科技公司 A 快很多時
17:26
going to grow a lot faster than tech company a you have to ask yourself how would i even compare these figures that
你就得問自己，我該如何比較這些數字
17:32
is where the peg ratio comes in and this is a much more useful tool in my opinion than the p e ratio alone so the way you
這就是 PEG 比率登場的時刻，在我看來，這是一個比單獨使用本益比更有用的工具
17:40
calculate this is very simple you take the p e ratio which we learned how to calculate in the last video and you
計算方式非常簡單，你取用本益比——我們在上支影片學過如何計算
17:45
divide it by the anticipated five year growth of earnings of that company and that's going to give you an idea of the
再將它除以該公司預期的五年盈餘成長率
17:51
price to earnings ratio with the growth factored in and whether or not that stock is overpriced fairly valued or
這樣就能讓你了解，將成長因素納入考量後的本益比，以及該股票是被高估、合理定價
17:57
undervalued based on that anticipated growth so what are you looking for as far as the peg goes first of all a peg
還是根據預期成長而被低估
18:04
of under one is going to tell you that that stock is probably undervalued and a peg of one means that that stock is
那麼 PEG 比率要看什麼？首先，PEG 低於 1 代表該股票可能被低估
18:11
fairly valued while a peg over one means that that stock is overvalued now i'm just going to warn you guys right now
PEG 等於 1 代表股票合理定價，而 PEG 大於 1 則代表股票被高估
18:17
especially during a bull market you're never going to find a stock with a peg of under one otherwise there has to be
現在我要警告大家，尤其是在牛市期間，你永遠找不到 PEG 低於 1 的股票
18:23
something very wrong with that stock it's going to be very hard to find low peg stocks during a bull market because
否則那支股票一定有非常嚴重的問題。在牛市期間很難找到低 PEG 的股票
18:29
lots of stocks are overvalued and the market in general does become overvalued this is a more useful tool during a bear
因為很多股票都被高估了，整體市場也變得過熱
18:36
market because you can unearth potential opportunities and look at peg ratios and find low peg stocks so i want to give
這個工具在熊市期間更有用，因為你可以發掘潛在機會，透過觀察 PEG 比率來尋找低 PEG 的股票
18:43
you guys two examples of this okay first of all we have qualcomm qualcomm has a peg ratio of 1.22 so looking at
我想給大家兩個例子。首先我們看 Qualcomm，它的 PEG 比率是 1.22
18:51
this here because it has a peg of over one the stock is considered to be overvalued but if you compare it to the
這裡可以看出，因為 PEG 大於 1，這支股票被認為是高估的
18:57
peg ratio of nvidia which is 4.06 you can see that the peg ratio is much higher for nvidia so if you were to
但如果你拿它跟 NVIDIA 的 PEG 比率 4.06 相比，你會發現 NVIDIA 的 PEG 比率高得多
19:05
compare the price to earnings ratio with growth factored in of nvidia and qualcomm you can see here that nvidia is
所以如果你比較將成長因素納入考量後的本益比，你會發現 NVIDIA 明顯比 Qualcomm 更被高估
19:11
significantly more overvalued than qualcomm so this is how you would use this tool you would pick two stocks that
這就是你使用這個工具的方式：挑選兩家營運領域相似的公司
19:17
are in similar areas of operations and you would compare the peg ratio of these stocks and determine how much of that
比較它們的 PEG 比率，並判斷其中有多少是來自於成長因素
19:23
growth is actually priced in today and that is how stocks begin to trade on a speculative basis is when all that
成長其實已經反映在今天的股價中，而股票開始投機性交易的方式，就是當所有
19:28
growth or all that future anticipated growth begins to be priced in today and that is where a stock begins to be
成長或所有未來預期的成長開始反映在今天的股價時，股票就會開始被
19:34
priced for perfection where everything that is expected to happen to that stock gets priced in today and if they have
以完美價格定價，也就是預期會發生在該股票上的所有事情都已提前反映在今天的股價中，如果他們在
19:39
one hiccup during that operation then the stock may fall significantly because all of that future growth or anticipated
營運過程中出現任何一點小問題，股價就可能大幅下跌，因為所有未來的成長或預期
19:45
growth was priced into today's number so what you're trying to figure out when looking at the peg ratio is how much of
成長都已反映在今天的數字中。所以當你在看PEG比率時，你試圖弄清楚的是，有多少
19:51
that anticipated growth is priced in today and again guys i just want to remind you you do not have to calculate
預期的成長已經反映在今天的股價中。再次提醒各位，你不需要自己計算
19:57
the p e ratio or the peg ratio yourself or the forward p e which we're going to cover next all these numbers are
本益比或PEG比率，或是我們接下來要講的預期本益比（forward PE），所有這些數字都
20:03
calculated for you i always use yahoo finance so you don't have to sit down and do the numbers yourself but it's
已經為你計算好了。我總是使用雅虎財經，所以你不需要自己坐下來算數字，但
20:08
very important to understand where these numbers are actually coming from so moving on now let's talk about the
了解這些數字的來源非常重要。那麼現在讓我們繼續講
20:14
forward pe which is also a useful tool for comparison the forward pe takes the current market price per share and
預期本益比，這也是一個很有用的比較工具。預期本益比是用目前的每股市場價格除以
20:20
divides it by the predicted earnings per share from analyst expectations now the one thing we have to point out here is
分析師預期所預測的每股盈餘。現在我們必須指出的一點是
20:26
all of this here the peg and the forward pe is based on expectations and as we know oftentimes expectations are not a
這裡所有的，PEG和預期本益比，都是基於預期，而我們都知道，預期往往並非
20:32
reality so you have to always consider the fact that this is not a guarantee these are wall street estimates at the
現實，所以你必須始終考慮到這一點：這不是一個保證，這些終究只是華爾街的估計，
20:38
end of the day it's an analyst's best guess as far as where earnings per share will come in and how fast that company
是分析師對於每股盈餘將是多少以及該公司成長速度會多快的最佳猜測。
20:43
will grow so always understand that the earnings expectations are not always going to be a reality so these are all
所以要始終明白，盈餘預期並非總是會成為現實，所以這些都是
20:50
based on predicted numbers and again the way you use the forward p e ratio is to determine how much of that future growth
基於預測的數字。同樣地，你使用預期本益比的方式，是為了判斷有多少未來的成長
20:56
is priced in today or if a stock appears to be overvalued today with a sky-high p e ratio it might be because the forward
已經反映在今天的股價中，或者如果一檔股票今天的股價看起來被高估，本益比高得離譜，可能是因為預期
21:03
p e ratio is expected to be much lower now we're going to use amazon as an example and their p e ratio is 247 while
本益比預計會低很多。現在我們以亞馬遜為例，他們的本益比是247，而
21:10
their forward p e ratio based on predicted earnings per share is at 99.
他們基於預測每股盈餘的預期本益比是99。
21:15
both of these are very high as we know amazon is a stock that is probably overvalued but they are a stock that is
這兩個都非常高，我們知道亞馬遜是一檔可能被高估的股票，但他們是一檔...
21:21
executing with perfection on all fronts so a lot of people have high hopes for amazon and a lot of that has been priced
在各方面都執行得完美無缺，所以很多人對亞馬遜抱有很高的期望，而其中很多期望已經反映在今天的股價中
21:26
into the share price today but amazon is a stock that is absolutely dominating so it makes sense for them to have this
但亞馬遜是一支絕對占據主導地位的股票，因此它擁有如此高的估值是合理的
21:31
high of a valuation now many investors would not be comfortable investing in a stock with a p e ratio of 247 and a
現在許多投資者不會對投資市盈率為247倍的股票感到放心，更何況
21:38
forward p e of 99 remember from our earlier discussion that means that currently you pay 247 dollars for
它的前瞻市盈率是99倍。請記住我們之前的討論，這意味著目前你支付247美元來
21:44
exposure to one dollar of earnings from amazon and in the future you would expect to pay 99 for one dollar of
獲得亞馬遜一美元的盈利敞口，而在未來你預期只需支付99美元來獲得亞馬遜一美元的
21:51
amazon's earnings so you use this as a comparison tool between different sectors and industries to compare the
盈利。因此，你可以將此作為不同行業板塊之間的比較工具，比較競爭對手的PEG和前瞻市盈率，以判斷一支股票是
21:57
peg and the forward pe of competitors to determine whether or not a stock is overvalued fairly valued or undervalued
被高估、估值合理還是被低估
22:04
but by far one of my favorite tools for analysis is looking at this peg ratio and it's very helpful to tell whether or
但到目前為止，我最喜歡的分析工具之一就是觀察這個PEG比率，它非常有助於判斷所有預期的增長是否
22:11
not all that anticipated growth is priced into today's number in this video we're going to be talking about the
已經反映在今天的數字中。在這段影片中，我們將討論股息
22:16
dividend now i want to start out by pointing out the typical growth rate of a company and it looks very similar to
現在我想先指出一家公司的典型增長率，它看起來非常像
22:20
this curve here so when a company starts out and when they're a new company they're going to grow at a much faster
這裡的這條曲線。所以當一家公司剛起步，作為一家新公司時，它的增長速度會比
22:26
rate than they're going to grow in the future and as a result you're going to see that growth begin to taper off going
未來的增長快得多，結果你會看到增長開始逐漸放緩
22:31
forward so this is what companies do when they're in this zone here when they're growing at a much slower rate or
未來也是如此。這就是當公司處於這個區域，即增長速度慢得多或
22:37
they're just consistent with their operations what they do is they pay dividends as a way to reward
營運剛好保持穩定時，它們所做的事情。它們會支付股息作為回報
22:42
shareholders and keep them around now dividends are quarterly cash payments and they're sharing their earnings with
股東並留住他們的方式。股息是季度性的現金支付，它們與股東分享其盈利
22:47
the shareholders so if they're earning a lot of money they have a lot of earnings per share they might make the decision
所以如果它們賺了很多錢，每股盈利很高，它們可能會決定
22:52
to pay shareholders a quarterly dividend now we talk about the dividend quite a bit here in stock radar we talk about uh
向股東支付季度股息。我們在Stock Radar這裡經常討論股息，我們討論uh
22:59
the dividend history how long this company has been paying that dividend the dividend growth streak so how many
股息歷史，這家公司支付該股息多久了，股息增長 streak，也就是股息
23:04
years has that dividend been growing and we also talk about the dividend yield or how much they are paying to shareholders
連續增長了多少年，我們也討論股息收益率，也就是它們向股東支付多少
23:09
so just understand that when a company is in income mode when a lot of the growth has already happened
所以只需理解，當一家公司處於收益模式，即大部分增長已經發生時
23:15
and they're growing at a much slower rate or they just have consistent or flat growth they're going to become an
而且它們的成長速度慢得多，或者只是維持穩定或持平的成長，它們將會變成
23:20
income investment because they are likely going to reward shareholders with dividends but a company that is in
收益型投資，因為它們很可能會用股息來回饋股東。但一家處於
23:25
growth mode if they're trying to grow as fast as possible they're not going to pay dividends they're going to be
成長模式的公司，如果它們試圖盡可能快地成長，就不會支付股息，而是會
23:30
reinvesting those earnings into the growth of the company so we used att as an example of an income investment they
將那些收益再投資到公司的成長中。所以我們用 AT&T 作為收益型投資的例子，它們
23:36
pay dividends to shareholders because they are not growing very fast and amazon is a growth stock because they
支付股息給股東，因為它們成長不快，而亞馬遜則是成長型股票，因為它們
23:42
are reinvesting all the earnings to grow the company as fast as possible and as a result they don't pay a dividend so
將所有收益再投資，以盡可能快的速度發展公司，結果就是它們不支付股息。所以
23:48
amazon is still down here on this curve where they're growing very rapidly while at t is further along in this curve
亞馬遜仍然在這條曲線的前端，它們成長非常迅速，而 AT&T 則在這條曲線的後段，
23:53
where they're pretty much flat with very little growth going on and as a result at t is paying dividends to reward
幾乎持平，幾乎沒有成長，結果 AT&T 支付股息來回饋
23:59
shareholders and give them a reason to stick around because if you guys saw that video here on stock radar the stock
股東，給他們一個繼續持有股票的理由，因為如果你們看過 Stock Radar 上的那支影片，這支股票
24:05
has had very lackluster performance and there's not much they're being offered other than that very high dividend so
的表現非常乏善可陳，除了那非常高的股息之外，它們沒有提供太多東西。所以
24:11
how do you actually calculate the dividend the company pays what you do is you take the annual dividends paid out
你實際上要如何計算公司支付的股息呢？你要做的是將每年支付的股息
24:16
divided by the market price and that's going to give you the dividend yield and again all you have to do is do a search
除以市場價格，這樣就會得到股息殖利率。同樣地，你只需要在 Google 上搜尋
24:21
for a stock on google and is going to show you the dividend yield right on that chart but that's how you go about
一支股票，它就會在圖表上顯示股息殖利率。但這就是你計算
24:25
calculating it so let's calculate the dividend yield for a t over the last four quarters they've paid
的方法。所以讓我們來計算 AT&T 的股息殖利率。在過去四季，它們支付了
24:31
a 49 dividend so we take 49 cents times four and divide it by the market price of 37.16 and that gives us a dividend
49 美分的股息，所以我們將 49 美分乘以四，再除以 37.16 美元的市場價格，得到的股息
24:39
yield of 5.3 percent so what kind of dividend yield should you be looking for as an investor if you're looking for an
殖利率是 5.3%。那麼，作為投資人，你應該尋找什麼樣的股息殖利率呢？如果你在尋找
24:45
income investment well the s p 500 average dividend is around 2.2 percent but if you're looking for an income
收益型投資，標準普爾 500 的平均股息殖利率約為 2.2%，但如果你在尋找收益型
24:52
investment and you're not focused on growth a good number to look for is between three to six uh so 18t falls in
投資，且不注重成長，一個好的數字範圍是 3% 到 6%。所以 AT&T 落在
24:58
there they have a 5.3 a very good dividend but they have no growth potential pretty much i mean the growth
這個區間，它們有 5.3% 的殖利率，非常高的股息，但它們幾乎沒有成長潛力。我的意思是，過去
25:04
has been non-existent over the last five years so that's the issue that you have there you have to weigh the pros and
五年的成長幾乎是零。所以這就是你所面臨的問題，你必須權衡利弊與
25:10
cons are you looking for a high dividend with low growth or no dividend with higher growth that's what you have to
缺點是，你想要的是高股息但低成長，還是沒有股息但高成長？作為投資人，你必須決定你現在想要的是什麼。
25:15
decide as an investor is what you are looking for now another very important thing to consider is whether or not a
另一件非常重要的事情要考慮的是，一家公司是否有能力支付股息。
25:21
company can afford to pay a dividend because high dividends are great but understand that dividends are not
因為高股息很棒，但要了解股息並非保證，他們隨時可以削減或停止支付股息。
25:26
guaranteed and they can cut or discontinue a dividend at any time a perfect example of this is general
通用電氣（General Electric）就是一個完美的例子，他們不得不大幅削減股息。
25:31
electric they had to slash that dividend because they simply could not afford to pay that dividend and they still can't
因為他們根本無力支付該股息，而且直到現在他們仍然無力支付股息。
25:37
afford to pay the dividend even now so the future for them is uncertain they may have to cut the dividend again but
所以他們的未來充滿不確定性，他們可能不得不再次削減股息。
25:43
anyways the way you calculate that is by looking at the dividend coverage ratio and this is very simple to figure out
總之，計算的方法是查看股息保障倍數（dividend coverage ratio），這非常容易計算。
25:49
and this might be something you have to calculate on your own because i have yet to find a resource that does this for
這可能需要你自己計算，因為我還沒找到有資源能幫你做這件事。
25:54
you but all you do is you take the annual earnings per share and divide it by the annual dividend per share and
你只需要將每年的每股盈餘除以每年的每股股息。
26:00
that gives you an idea of how much of the earnings they are passing along to shareholders and how much of the
這能讓你了解他們將多少盈餘發放給股東，以及保留了多少盈餘。
26:04
earnings they are keeping for themselves so basically let's go ahead and calculate this for at t looking at the
基本上，讓我們來為 AT&T 計算一下，查看 2017 財年的數字。
26:10
fiscal 2017 year numbers so for fiscal year 2017 at t had earnings of 4.76 and they paid out 1.97
在 2017 財年，AT&T 的盈餘為 4.76 美元，他們支付了 1.97 美元的股息。
26:19
of dividends giving them a dividend coverage ratio of 2.4 so what exactly does that mean here's what it means if
這讓它們的股息保障倍數為 2.4。這到底是什麼意思呢？
26:25
the dividend coverage ratio is below one that means they are paying out more in dividends than they are earning that was
意思是，如果股息保障倍數低於 1，這意味著他們支付的股息多於他們賺到的錢。
26:31
the case with general electric and as a result that is very bad that means they are likely going to have to restructure
通用電氣就是這種情況，結果非常糟糕，這意味著他們可能不得不重組或削減股息。
26:36
or cut that dividend now if the dividend coverage ratio is between a one to a 1.5 they don't have great coverage of that
如果股息保障倍數介於 1 到 1.5 之間，表示他們對股息的保障度不高。
26:43
dividend and they will likely be cutting it or restructuring it in the future the optimal zone to be in is between a two
未來他們很可能會削減或重組股息。最理想的區間是在 2 到 3 之間。
26:50
and a three and as we can see a t and t came in at a 2.4 so they're right where they need to be so when you're looking
我們可以看到 AT&T 的數字是 2.4，所以他們正好處於該在的位置。
26:56
for a dividend coverage ratio i always look for a dividend coverage ratio between two and three but on the other
所以當你在尋找投資標的時，我總是尋找股息保障倍數在 2 到 3 之間的公司。
27:01
side of the coin if the dividend coverage ratio is above three that means the company is retaining most of those
但另一方面，如果股息保障倍數高於 3，這意味著公司保留了大部分的盈餘。
27:07
earnings and they may be being greedy so what i look for is a dividend coverage ratio between two and three if it's
獲利，而他們可能過於貪婪，所以我尋找的股息覆蓋率介於兩到三之間。如果低於1.5，我認為不值得投資；如果高於三，那麼你就要確保公司是將獲利再投資，而不只是單純地自己保留。
27:13
below a 1.5 i don't think that is investment worthy and if it's above three then you want to make sure that
低於1.5，我認為不值得投資；如果高於三，那麼你就要確保公司是將獲利再投資，而不只是單純地自己保留。
27:18
company is reinvesting earnings and not just retaining them for themselves we just wrapped up talking about the
我們剛剛結束了關於股息的討論，我想展示給大家一個我在投資股息股票時最常見的錯誤。
27:23
dividend and i want to show you guys one of the most common mistakes that i see people make when it comes to investing
我想展示給大家一個我在投資股息股票時最常見的錯誤。
27:28
in dividend stocks a lot of people start their search out by searching for high dividend yield stocks and if you do so
很多人一開始搜尋時，會先搜尋高股息殖利率的股票，如果你這樣做，
27:34
you can find a nice list of stocks that pay very hefty dividends but you have to calculate the dividend coverage ratio to
你會找到一份支付非常豐厚股息的股票清單，但你必須計算股息覆蓋率，
27:40
determine whether or not a company can actually afford to pay that high dividend so i'm going to show you guys
才能判斷一家公司是否真的有能力支付那麼高的股息。所以我現在要展示給大家
27:45
an example of this here a high dividend trap a company called spark energy inc and they trade under the symbol spke so
一個這樣的例子，一個高股息陷阱，一家名叫 Spark Energy Inc. 的公司，股票代號是 SPKE。所以
27:52
on the surface here we can see that spark energy has a p e ratio of 11.8 that's a pretty low pe and they have a
從表面上看，我們可以看到 Spark Energy 的本益比是 11.8，這是一個相當低的本益比，而且他們有
27:58
dividend yield of 7.6 percent that's a very high dividend as we said the market average is around two point two percent
7.6% 的股息殖利率，這是非常高的股息。正如我們所說，市場平均殖利率大約是 2.2%，
28:04
and a good dividend is between three and six percent so a seven point six percent must be a fantastic dividend right the
而好的股息殖利率介於 3% 到 6% 之間，所以 7.6% 一定是非常棒的股息，對吧？答案是絕對錯誤。
28:11
answer is absolutely not and i'm going to show you guys why that is so now because you know how to perform
答案是絕對錯誤，我現在就要告訴大家為什麼會這樣。因為你們現在知道如何進行
28:17
fundamental analysis of the dividend and calculate the coverage ratio we can take a look under the hood so the coverage
股息的基本面分析並計算覆蓋率了，我們可以深入探究一下。所以覆蓋率，
28:23
ratio again we're going to calculate here by looking at the 2017 earnings per share divided by the 2017 dividends per
我們再次透過查看 2017 年的每股盈餘除以 2017 年的每股股息來計算。
28:29
share so in 2017 spark energy inc had earnings of 27 cents per share and they paid 72.5 cents per share in dividends
所以在 2017 年，Spark Energy Inc. 的每股盈餘是 27 美分，而他們支付了每股 72.5 美分的股息。
28:39
so that coverage ratio comes out to a 0.37 but what does that actually mean what
所以覆蓋率算出來是 0.37，但這實際上意味著什麼呢？
28:44
that actually means is that in 2017 spark energy inc had earnings of 3.5 million dollars and they paid 9.5
這實際上意味著在 2017 年，Spark Energy Inc. 的獲利是 350 萬美元，而他們支付了 950 萬美元的股息。
28:52
million dollars in dividends so they had a deficit in 2017 of six million dollars just from that dividend let me ask you
所以他們在 2017 年僅僅因為這筆股息就出現了 600 萬美元的赤字。讓我問大家一個問題，
29:00
guys a question does that make financial sense to you if you were making 25 cents and you paid someone 75 cents you're
這在財務上對你們來說合理嗎？如果你賺了 25 美分，卻付給別人 75 美分，你就會出現赤字。
29:07
gonna have a deficit that is what is happening here with spark energy inc and i can guarantee you that they're going
這就是 Spark Energy Inc. 正在發生的事，我可以向你們保證，他們將會...
29:13
to cut this dividend they have no choice but to cut that dividend because they cannot afford to pay it this is what you
他們別無選擇，只能削減那個股利，因為他們付不起。這是當你在投資高股息股票時，
29:18
have to do anytime you're investing in a high dividend stock take a look under the hood calculate the dividend coverage
你必須做的事情：深入檢視、計算股利涵蓋率，
29:24
ratio and make sure the company can actually afford to pay that dividend because spark energy can very clearly
並確保公司真的有能力支付那個股利，因為 Spark Energy 很明顯
29:30
not afford to pay this this is the high dividend trap that people fall into all the time i've never done it myself
付不起。這就是人們經常陷入的高股息陷阱。我自己從未犯過這個錯，
29:36
because i understood this very simple concept of the coverage ratio and now you guys do as well and i hope you never
因為我理解這個非常簡單的涵蓋率概念，現在你們也理解了。我希望你們永遠不要
29:41
fall into the trap of buying into a stock with a very high dividend always take a look at the coverage ratio we are
陷入購買高股息股票的陷阱。務必檢視涵蓋率。我們現在
29:48
now going to start talking about the key financial documents which are the income statement the cash flow statement and
要開始討論關鍵的財務文件，也就是損益表、現金流量表，以及
29:53
then the balance sheet now this is the part of fundamental stock analysis where a lot of people go oh my gosh i don't
接著的資產負債表。這是基本面股票分析的一部分，很多人看到會說天啊，我完全
29:59
understand any of this and i'm never going to understand it because if you go online and you start looking at a
看不懂，我永遠也學不會。因為如果你上網開始看
30:04
balance sheet or an income statement or a cash flow statement and you've never looked at these things before you're
資產負債表、損益表或現金流量表，而你以前從未看過這些東西，你會被
30:09
going to be overwhelmed by the massive amount of information available to you and it's very easy to just say oh my
大量湧現的資訊淹沒，很容易就會說天啊，我永遠學不會，我要放棄了。我想鼓勵各位不要這樣做。我會
30:15
gosh i'm not going to ever understand this i'm going to give up and i want to encourage you guys not to do this i'm
儘量用最簡單的方式，展示我在尋找什麼。但要理解這是
30:20
going to try to make it as simple as possible and show you guys what things i'm looking for but understand this is
需要時間累積的，你每週學一點，久而久之就學會如何解讀這些
30:25
something you build upon with time you learn a little bit each week and over time you learn how to interpret these
財務文件。這絕對不是一蹴可幾的，我花了好幾個月才真正學會如何解讀這些
30:30
financial documents it certainly does not come overnight it took me months to really understand how to interpret these
文件。但這應該能為你提供一個基礎的理解，希望當我在「股票雷達」中
30:36
documents but this should provide a basic understanding for you and hopefully as i go through these during
實際分析這些財務文件時，你能開始掌握
30:41
stock radar and i'm doing actual analysis of these financial documents you'll start to grasp what it is that
你該尋找的重點。但首先，讓我們從討論損益表開始。損益表
30:47
you are looking for but first of all let's start off by talking about the income statement the income statement
基本上解釋了這個公式：淨利等於收入減去費用。所以實際的損益表
30:52
basically explains this formula which is net income is equal to revenue minus expenses so the actual income statement
就是向你解釋公司的淨利是多少、他們的收入是多少，以及有哪些費用。
31:00
is just explaining to you what is the company's net income what is their revenue and what kind of expenses do
就是向你解釋公司的淨利是多少、他們的收入是多少，以及有哪些費用。
31:05
they have as well and they are also explaining to you how the revenue is turning into net income for this company
他們也有提供，並且他們也在向您解釋這家公司的營收如何轉為淨利
31:11
so really all it's doing for you is outlining the net income the revenue and the expenses and these are the main
所以它真正為您做的就是概述淨利、營收和費用，而這些是我在
31:17
things that i look for on this document i look at the total revenue the gross profit the cost of revenue the net
這份文件上尋找的主要項目。我會看總營收、毛利、營業成本、淨利
31:24
income and the operating expenses and i'm going to go ahead and explain what each one of these things are now so
以及營業費用，我接下來將解釋每一項的含義。首先，
31:29
first of all total revenue is very simple it is the total sales of a business or all of the revenue generated
總營收非常簡單，它是一家企業的總銷售額，或來自銷售其商品和服務所產生的
31:35
from the sales of their goods and services and then your cost of revenue is the cost incurred to obtain those
所有營收。然後您的營業成本是為了達成這些銷售所發生的成本。讓我們用一個 lemonade stand（檸檬水攤）來當例子，如果您在賣檸檬水，那麼您實際的檸檬水
31:41
sales so let's go ahead and use a lemonade stand as an example if you were selling lemonade then your actual sales
銷售，您所賣的一切，都會變成您的總營收，而您的營業成本則是您的
31:46
of lemonade everything you were selling would turn into your total revenue and your cost of revenue would be your
實際供應品、杯子，也許還有一些廣告費用，以及您實際的攤位本身。所以您拿
31:51
actual supplies your cups and maybe if you had some advertising and then your actual lemonade stand itself so you take
總營收，然後減去那個營業成本，這就會讓您了解您的
31:58
the total revenue and then you subtract out that cost of revenue and that's going to give you an idea of what your
毛利是多少。就像我解釋的，各位，毛利很簡單，就是您拿總營收減去
32:03
gross profit is and like i explained there guys gross profit is simply when you take your total revenue and subtract
您的營業成本。所以對於我們的檸檬水攤例子，就是您所有檸檬水的銷售額，減去為了達成這些銷售所發生的
32:09
your cost of revenue so for our lemonade stand example it's all of your sales of lemonade minus all of your expenses
所有費用，這就會告訴您您的毛利是多少。現在我們還有其他費用要討論，
32:15
incurred to have those sales is going to tell you what your gross profit is now there are other expenses we have to talk
這些屬於營業費用，而營業費用就是發生的、與商品和服務銷售無關的
32:22
about and these fall under operating expenses and operating expenses are simply the expenses incurred that are
費用。這些分為三類：研發費用（Research and Development）、銷售與管理費用（Sales, General and Administrative），
32:28
unrelated to the sales of the goods and services and these are broken down into three categories you have research and
以及非經常性費用項目（Non-recurring expense items）。這些都是您在看損益表時
32:34
development sales general and administrative and then non-recurring expense items and these are things
能夠看到的項目。所以假設您有您的檸檬水攤，而您正在
32:40
you'll be able to see looking at the income statement so let's say you had your lemonade stand and you were
研發一種專利的水、檸檬和糖的混合配方，那麼這些研發費用
32:44
researching a proprietary mixture of water lemons and sugar then those expenses for research and development
就會歸在您的營業費用下。它們不會歸在您的營業成本下。然後所有這些
32:51
would fall under your operating expenses they're not going to fall under your cost of revenue and then all this
因素加總起來，就告訴您淨利，也就是一家企業的總收益或利潤。所以再說一次，如果這是您的
32:56
factors in to tell you the net income which is the total earnings or profit of a business so again if this was your
因素加總起來，就告訴您淨利，也就是一家企業的總收益或利潤。所以再說一次，如果這是您的
33:01
lemonade stand it's going to be what is your actual profit on that stand after accounting for your expense items and
檸檬水攤的利潤究竟是多少？在計算完各項費用後，這個攤位的實際利潤是多少？
33:07
again this is both your cost of revenue expenses and then your operating expenses that are unrelated to the sales
再次強調，這些費用包含了銷貨成本以及與銷售檸檬水無關的營業費用。
33:13
of that lemonade so those are the key metrics that i look at on the income statement and here is what i'm actually
以上這些都是我在損益表上會關注的關鍵指標，而我真正尋找的是：
33:18
looking for number one is total revenue increasing if you're investing in a growth stock you want to make sure the
第一，總營收是否在增長。如果你投資的是成長型股票，你必須確認商品和服務的實際營收隨著時間推移在增加。
33:25
actual revenue or the sales of the goods and services is increasing over time and typically if i'm looking at a growth
通常當我審視一檔成長型股票時，我希望看到過去幾年有兩位數的年增率。
33:31
stock i want to see a double-digit year-over-year return over the last couple of years now do remember when
請記住，當你觀察總營收時，許多企業具有季節性，
33:37
you're looking at total revenue many businesses have seasonality where they're going to sell a lot more of
他們在特定時間段內的產品銷量會好很多。
33:41
their products during a certain period of time we were looking at amazon and amazon does most of their revenue in the
以亞馬遜為例，他們大部分的營收來自第四季，
33:47
fourth quarter because of holiday sales so you always want to think about whether or not a business is affected by
因為有假日銷售。所以你必須思考一家企業是否受到季節性影響，
33:52
any kind of seasonality whether it be back to school shopping or holiday spending and things like that and that
無論是返校季購物還是假日消費等等。
33:58
will be indicated looking at the quarterly data on the income statement as far as how much revenue is coming in
這可以透過觀察損益表上的季度數據看出來，也就是每一季有多少營收進帳。
34:03
for each quarter so assuming total revenue is growing the second thing i look at is the cost of revenue or the
假設總營收正在增長，我接著看的是銷貨成本，也就是
34:09
cost incurred to obtain those sales of the goods and services because if total revenue is growing but the cost of
為了達成商品和服務銷售所產生的成本。因為如果總營收在增長，但銷貨成本
34:16
revenue is growing faster then you're not going to be seeing much growth of net income because they're spending more
增長得更快，那麼你將看不到淨利有多少成長，因為他們花了更多錢
34:21
money to actually obtain those sales so you always want to make sure that if the total revenue is growing and if you're
來達成銷售。所以你必須確保，如果總營收在增長，而你正在尋找一個好的投資，
34:27
looking at a good investment a growth investment it should be you want to make sure the cost of revenue is not growing
一個成長型投資，你必須確保銷貨成本沒有增長得更快，或者其增長率在長期是穩定的。
34:32
at a faster rate or the rate is steady or consistent over a long period of time you don't want to see cost of revenue
你不希望看到銷貨成本暴增，而總營收卻沒有以同樣的速度增長。
34:38
going through the roof and seeing total revenue not growing at the same rate that would mean they are spending a lot
這意味著他們花了更多錢來達成銷售，
34:44
more money obtaining those sales and as a result you're not going to see that represented in the net income because
結果你不會在淨利中看到回報，因為
34:49
they're spending more money now and one of the easiest ways you can look at this is just by looking at the gross profit
他們現在花了更多的錢。而觀察這一點最簡單的方法之一，就是看毛利。
34:55
the gross profit like we said is your total revenue minus your cost of revenue so if your cost of revenue is reasonable
如我們所說，毛利是您的總收入減去營業成本，所以如果您的營業成本是合理的
35:01
then you should be seeing your gross profit increasing so you really all you have to do is look at the total revenue
那麼您應該會看到毛利增加，因此您真正需要做的就是觀察總收入
35:06
and the gross profit and they should be growing at a very similar rate if you're seeing total revenue growing at 20
和毛利，它們應該以非常相似的速度增長，如果您看到總收入增長了 20%
35:12
percent and then your gross profits only growing at 10 percent that might tell you that your actual cost of revenue is
而您的毛利只增長了 10%，這可能告訴您您的實際營業成本
35:17
growing faster than your total revenue the fourth thing i look at is i take a glance over at the operating expenses or
增長速度比總收入還快，我查看的第四點是營業費用或
35:23
as we said those are the expenses unrelated to the sales of the goods or services and all i'm looking for here is
如我們所說，這些是與商品或服務銷售無關的費用，我在這裡尋找的是
35:29
any significant jump in expenses was there a big jump in research and development or sg a or are there any
任何費用的顯著跳升，研發費用或 SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）是否有大幅跳升，或者是否有任何
35:35
non-recurring expense items and if so i might do a little bit more investigation on what those expense items actually
非經常性費用項目，如果有，我可能會對這些費用項目實際是什麼
35:41
were or why there was such an increase in the expenses and then fifth and finally i take a look at the net income
或為什麼會有如此大幅的費用增加進行更深入的調查，然後第五點也是最後一點，我會看一下淨利
35:46
and i say is the net income increasing is it flat or is it decreasing and again if you're looking at a growth investment
並且我會說淨利是增加、持平還是減少，同樣地，如果您在觀察成長型投資
35:53
i like to see double-digit growth of net income double-digit growth of gross profit and double digit growth of the
我希望看到淨利的兩位數增長、毛利的兩位數增長以及總收入的兩位數增長，理想情況下，您希望看到實際營業成本以相似或更慢的速度增長，但
35:59
total revenue and ideally you want to see the actual cost of revenue growing at a similar rate or a slower rate but
這基本上就是我在損益表上尋找的內容，我關注的是淨利、收入和費用
36:06
that is basically what i'm looking for with the income statement i'm looking at the net income the revenue and expenses
我希望確保費用的增長速度不會超過收入，並且我希望確保營業成本是
36:11
i want to make sure the expenses are not growing faster than the revenue and i want to make sure the cost of revenue is
合理的，在本影片中，我們將討論第二份關鍵財務文件，也就是資產負債表
36:16
reasonable in this video we're going to talk about the second key financial document which is the balance sheet and
而資產負債表簡單來說就是資產與負債的比較，所以對於那些看過我的加映影片
36:21
the balance sheet is simply a comparison of the assets to the liabilities so for those of you that watched my bonus video
其中我談到我的淨值的人，這基本上就是我在這裡所做的，我的淨值等於我的資產減去我的
36:27
where i talked about my net worth that is basically what i did here my net worth is equal to my assets minus my
負債，所以在我的加映影片範例中，我談到我有現金、我有股市投資、我有一輛車
36:33
liabilities so in my bonus video example i talked about how i have cash i have stock market investments i have a car
這些都是資產，至於負債方面，我談到了我的車貸以及我為了長期建立信用而使用的
36:40
and those are all assets and as far as the liabilities go i talked about my car loan as well as the small amount of
一小部分信用卡債務，如果您... 您可以去看看那部影片
36:46
credit card debt that i have that i'm using to build credit over time and you guys can check out that video if you
一小部分信用卡債務，如果您... 您可以去看看那部影片
36:51
want more details on my actual net worth and how that works but the best way to visualize a company balance sheet is to
想更了解我的實際淨值及其運作方式，但最好的理解公司資產負債表方式是
36:57
think about what if this was my balance sheet what if these were my assets in my liabilities would i be in good financial
想像如果這是我的資產負債表，如果這些是我的資產和我的負債，我的財務狀況
37:04
health or in poor financial health and that's what i want you guys to keep in the back of your mind when you're
是良好還是不佳，這就是我希望你們在
37:09
looking at the balance sheet of a company would this be a good balance sheet for you if you were this company
瀏覽公司資產負債表時要牢記在心的，如果你們是這家公司，這會是一張好的資產負債表嗎
37:14
so first of all let's go ahead and define what an asset is an asset is an economic resource maybe it's a building
首先，讓我們來定義什麼是資產，資產是一種經濟資源，也許是一棟建築
37:20
maybe it's just cash but it's something that is an economic resource now some assets depreciate with time and there
也許只是現金，但它是一種經濟資源，有些資產會隨時間折舊
37:25
are assets that depreciate for example my car is technically an asset but it's not going to increase in value with time
也有會折舊的資產，例如我的車在技術上是一項資產，但它不會隨時間增值
37:32
it's going to decrease so my vehicle is a depreciating asset and then a liability is a financial debt or an
它會貶值，所以我的車輛是一項折舊資產，而負債則是一筆金融債務或
37:38
obligation so for my example my car loan is a financial debt and it falls under a liability so it's basically assets
義務，以我的例子來說，我的車貸是一筆金融債務，它屬於負債，所以基本上是資產
37:44
versus the company's debt now as far as assets go we have current assets and long-term assets and current assets are
對比公司的債務，現在就資產而言，我們有流動資產和長期資產，流動資產是
37:51
cash or assets that are readily convertible into cash within the next year and then as far as liabilities go
現金或可在未來一年內輕易轉換為現金的資產，而就負債而言
37:57
you have current liabilities and long-term debt current liabilities are any liabilities or debt that is expected
你有流動負債和長期債務，流動負債是任何預計
38:03
to be repaid within one year and long-term debt is being paid back over one year so for me my current
在一年內償還的負債或債務，長期債務的償還期限超過一年，對我來說，我的流動
38:09
liabilities would be my credit card debt that i'm paying back every single month it's just two thousand dollars that i
負債會是我每個月都在償還的信用卡債務，就是那兩千元我
38:14
get interest-free and as far as my long-term debt goes i'm paying back my car loan over the course of five years
無息使用的額度，而我的長期債務方面，我正在用五年時間償還我的車貸
38:20
and so maybe the first year is considered to be current liabilities but the rest of that is all considered to be
所以也許第一年被視為流動負債，但其餘的部分則全部被視為
38:25
long-term debt so if i wanted to i could actually split that up between my current liabilities and my long-term
長期債務，所以如果我想的話，我可以將它分為流動負債和長期
38:31
debt and look at my car payments for the next 12 months would be under current liabilities because i'm paying that back
債務，並查看我未來12個月的車貸付款，這會歸在流動負債下，因為我會在一年內
38:36
within one year and then the cash and cash equivalents is any liquid assets the company has so for me my actual cash
償還，然後現金及約當現金是公司擁有的任何流動性資產，對我來說，我的實際現金
38:43
savings would fall under the cash and equivalent section of the balance sheet and then finally we have to talk about
儲蓄會歸在資產負債表的現金及約當現金項目下，最後我們必須討論
38:48
stockholders equity which is the equity stake a shareholder has in the company or the equity applicable to shareholders
股東權益，也就是股東在公司中的股權，或適用於股東的權益
38:54
which would be you if you're an investor in this company so once you understand what this is you look at the assets
如果你是這家公司的投資者，那麼你就是股東。所以一旦你理解了這點，你就可以檢視資產
38:59
versus the liabilities what exactly are you looking for with the balance sheet the first thing i look at is very simple
與負債的對比。使用資產負債表你究竟要看什麼？我看的第一件事非常簡單
39:05
do total assets exceed total liabilities if i was in a position where i had fifty thousand dollars of assets and a hundred
總資產是否超過總負債？如果我處於擁有五萬美元資產和十萬
39:11
thousand dollars of liabilities am i in good financial health or poor financial health and if you're looking at a
美元負債的狀況，我的財務狀況是良好還是不佳？如果你看到一家
39:17
company where the liabilities exceed the assets the total liabilities versus total assets that's not a very good
公司的負債超過資產，也就是總負債相對於總資產，這不是一個
39:22
position to be in the second thing i look at is the short-term debt coverage and the long-term debt coverage now you
很好的狀況。我看的第二件事是短期債務覆蓋率和長期債務覆蓋率。現在你
39:28
can do this in two different ways you could start by looking at the current assets and comparing it to current
可以用兩種不同的方式來做。你可以先看流動資產，並將其與流動
39:34
liabilities or the long-term debt or as an even stricter test you can look at the cash and cash equivalents and
負債或長期債務做比較；或者，作為一個更嚴格的測試，你可以看現金及約當現金，
39:40
compare that to the current liabilities and long-term debt and later on in this series we're going to talk about a
並將其與流動負債和長期債務做比較。在這個系列的後面，我們將討論
39:45
couple of ratios that actually calculate this for you so again you don't have to actually sit down and do this on paper
幾個實際為你計算這些數據的比率，所以你不需要真的坐下來用紙筆計算，
39:50
but what you're looking to do is see whether the company has the ability to pay back their short-term debt and their
但你要做的是看這家公司是否有能力償還其
39:56
long-term debt so one of the very simple things that i do looking at the current assets and current liabilities is i make
短期債務和長期債務。所以，我檢視流動資產和流動負債時，做的一件非常簡單的事就是
40:02
sure that the current assets exceed current liabilities because if your current assets your cash or things that
確保流動資產超過流動負債，因為如果你的流動資產（即現金或能在一年內
40:08
are readily convertible to cash in one year do not cover your debts expected to be paid in one year there might be a
輕易轉換成現金的東西）無法覆蓋你預期在一年內支付的債務，那裡可能會有
40:14
deficit there and that is not something you would like to see on a balance sheet for a company or on your own personal
赤字，而這是你不希望在公司的資產負債表或你自己的個人
40:19
balance sheet so third of all the next thing i look at is whether or not assets are growing or shrinking and obviously
資產負債表上看到的。第三，我接下來看的是資產是在增長還是縮減。顯然，
40:25
if you're investing in a growing company a growth stock you want to see consistent growth of assets and if it's
如果你投資的是一家成長型公司、一檔成長型股票，你希望看到資產持續增長；如果是
40:31
a growth stock i like to see double digit growth of assets year over year but more importantly as well we have to
一檔成長型股票，我喜歡看到資產年增率達到兩位數。但同樣更重要的是，我們必須
40:36
look at whether or not the liabilities are growing and if liabilities are growing faster than assets that might
看負債是否也在增長。如果負債的增長速度比資產快，那可能表示
40:42
not be a good sign for this company so ideally the liability growth rate is going to be equal to or less than the
對這家公司來說不是個好兆頭，所以理想情況下，負債成長率應該等於或低於
40:47
asset growth rate but this is oftentimes not the case you just want to make sure that it's not completely out of control
資產成長率，但情況往往不是如此，你只需要確保它沒有完全失控
40:53
where you're seeing 10 percent growth of assets with 50 growth of liabilities that is not something you would want to
資產成長 10% 而負債成長 50%，這不是你希望
40:59
see you want to see similar growth there or if you saw no growth of assets and growth of liabilities that means that
看到的，你希望看到相似的成長，或者如果你看到資產沒有成長但負債有成長，這意味著
41:05
that company is increasing their debt without increasing their assets if you were in a position where you had the
那家公司正在增加債務卻沒有增加資產。如果你處於這樣的情況：你
41:10
same amount of assets the same amount of cash and it was not growing and you decided to go out there and buy a
擁有相同數量的資產、相同數量的現金，而且它沒有增長，而你決定出去買一台
41:15
motorcycle and a camper and increase your liabilities in your short-term and long-term debt would that be a very wise
摩托車和一輛露營車，增加你的短期和長期負債，這會是個非常明智的
41:21
financial decision that's the question you have to ask yourself and if a company has no growth of assets but they
財務決定嗎？這是你必須問自己的問題，而如果一家公司資產沒有成長但
41:27
have growth of liabilities it's the same exact thing as that the fifth thing i look at is the type of debt this company
負債有成長，這和上述情況完全一樣。我查看的第五點是這家公司的
41:33
has is most of their debt short-term debt that has to be paid back within one year or is most of this company's debt
債務類型，他們的大部分債務是必須在一年內償還的短期債務，還是這家公司的大部分債務
41:38
long term and again you want to make sure looking at the coverage ratio whether or not the company has the
是長期的？同樣地，你要確保查看覆蓋率，看看公司是否有
41:43
ability to pay back both the short-term and the long-term debt number six you're going to look at the actual cash and
能力同時償還短期和長期債務。第六點，你將查看實際的現金和
41:50
cash equivalents to determine whether or not this company is a cash cow is this company sitting on a lot of cash maybe
現金等價物，以判斷這家公司是否是現金牛。這家公司是否坐擁大量現金？也許
41:55
they're planning on some kind of acquisition or expansion or is this company burdened with debt and they have
他們正在計劃某種收購或擴張？或者這家公司是否債務纏身，而且
42:00
very little cash and again think about this in terms of you what if you were in a position where you had nothing but
現金非常少？同樣地，從你自己的角度思考：如果你處於只有
42:06
assets you didn't have any cash and you had a lot of liabilities if all you had was investments in the stock market and
資產、沒有任何現金，卻有很多負債的情況，會怎樣？如果你所有的財富都在股市投資中，
42:12
maybe you had your car and some other assets and you had no cash and you had both short-term and long-term debt you
也許你有你的車和一些其他資產，但你沒有現金，而且你同時有短期和長期債務，你
42:18
know you have to free up some of those assets and that might not be a great position to be in it's always good to
知道你必須變賣一些資產，而這可能不是一個很好的處境。看到一家公司
42:23
see a company having a comfortable cash cushion and i always like investing in companies that are cash cows because
擁有舒適的現金緩衝總是好的，我總是喜歡投資那些是現金牛的公司，因為
42:30
that means they have the ability to pay back their debts and maybe they're a company that has enough cash to pay back
這意味著他們有能力償還債務，也許他們是一家有足夠現金償還的公司
42:35
their short-term and long-term debt that would be fantastic but on the other hand you do want to make sure the company is
他們的短期和長期債務，那樣會很棒，但另一方面，你也要確保公司
42:41
not being inefficient and not borrowing in the right ways because you do want to see a healthy amount of debt with a
沒有效率不彰，也沒有用不當的方式借貸，因為你希望看到公司有適度的債務
42:47
company and so you kind of have to find the in between there as far as having too much debt versus too little debt
所以你必須在這裡找到一個平衡點，介於債務過多與債務過少之間
42:52
because if they have too little debt they might be operating inefficiently and not taking advantage of the ability
因為如果他們債務太少，營運可能沒有效率，也沒有利用借款來
42:58
to borrow money to grow at a faster rate and then finally i look at stockholders equity i want to see double-digit growth
更快成長的能力，最後我看股東權益，我希望看到股東權益
43:04
with stockholders equity year over year if this is a growth stock because that is the equity that is applicable to you
每年都有兩位數的成長，如果這是一檔成長股，因為那是適用於你的權益
43:09
that is your equity stake in this company and you're going to want to make sure you're seeing consistent growth of
那是你在這家公司的持股權益，你會希望確保你看到股東權益
43:14
stockholders equity if this company has a healthy balance sheet gonna wrap up and talk about the final key financial
穩定成長，如果這家公司有健康的資產負債表。我們來總結並談談最後一份關鍵的財務
43:19
document which is the cash flow statement in the last two videos we talked about the balance sheet and the
報表，也就是現金流量表。在前兩支影片中，我們談論了資產負債表和
43:24
income statement and now we're going to talk about the cash flow statement the cash flow statement very simply shows
損益表，現在我們要來談現金流量表。現金流量表很簡單地向你展示
43:30
you the movement of cash within a company through three different avenues and those are through operations through
公司內部透過三個不同管道的現金流動，分別是營運、
43:36
investing and through financing essentially what you're looking to determine when looking at the cash flow
投資和理財。基本上，當你檢視現金流量表時，你想確定的是
43:41
statement is cash flowing into this company or is cash flowing out of this company and you're looking at both the
現金是流入這家公司，還是流出這家公司，你同時關注
43:47
inflows and the outflows now inflows are going to be cash coming in or receipts for example if this was your small
流入和流出。流入指的是現金進入或收款，例如，如果這是你的小
43:53
business and then outflows would be any payments that you are making so first of all
企業，那麼流出就是你支付的任何款項。所以首先，
43:57
let's talk about the three avenues of the cash flow statement operations is the most important part and it's mostly
我們來談談現金流量表的三個管道。營運是最重要的部分，也是我
44:03
what i focus on when i'm looking at the cash flow statement and that is the cash generated from the sales of the goods
檢視現金流量表時最關注的部分，那就是來自商品銷售
44:08
and services the investing side of the cash flow statement shows any gains or losses from their investments and then
和服務所產生的現金。現金流量表的投資面顯示來自他們投資的任何收益或損失，然後
44:14
the financing side shows any inflows or outflows from financing activities so one example of an outflow would be a
理財面顯示來自理財活動的任何流入或流出。所以流出的一個例子是
44:21
dividend payment to shareholders and an example of a financing inflow would be if they issued bonds to raise capital so
支付給股東的股利，而理財流入的一個例子是他們發行債券來籌集資金。所以
44:27
i really don't pay much of any attention to the investing and financing side of the cash flow statement what i'm most
我其實不太關注現金流量表的投資和融資活動部分，我最關心的是營運活動的實際現金流
44:33
concerned with is the actual cash flow from operations now if you guys want to take this a step further and really go
如果你們想更進一步，深入研究現金流量表的投資和融資活動部分，我鼓勵你們這麼做
44:39
in depth and look at the investing and financing side of the cash flow statement i would encourage you to do so
但就個人而言，我專注於現金流量表的營運活動部分，因為這代表商品和服務的實際銷售
44:45
but personally i focus on the operation side of the cash flow statement as that is the actual sales of the goods and
這就是我在查看公司現金流量表和解讀基本面時最關心的部分
44:51
services that is what i am most concerned with when i am looking at a company's cash flow statement and
所以我在現金流量表上真正關注的只有營運活動的自由現金流
44:56
interpreting the fundamentals so the only thing that i really look at with the cash flow statement is the free cash
我基本上想了解營運活動的自由現金流是否在增加
45:01
flow from operations and i basically want to see is the free cash flow from operations increasing are they
他們是否從持續的商品和服務銷售中產生更多現金
45:07
generating more cash from the ongoing sales of their goods and services and again like i said guys i really don't
再次強調，我真的不太關注投資和融資活動部分
45:12
pay much attention to the investing and financing side because this is a much smaller piece of this company and that
因為這在公司中佔比小得多，而且解讀這些數字需要更多技巧
45:18
requires a little bit more skill as far as interpreting those numbers because they typically fluctuate all over the
因為它們通常波動很大
45:23
place so i like to keep it simple and i'd stick to the cash flow from operations that is the number that makes
所以我喜歡保持簡單，堅持關注營運活動現金流，這對我來說是最有意義的數字
45:28
sense to me in this video we're going to talk about some key financial ratios that you may decide to add to your
在這個影片中，我們將討論一些你可能會決定加入基本面分析策略的關鍵財務比率
45:33
fundamental analysis strategy now we're going to talk about seven different ratios here and the thing is guys there
我們將在這裡討論七種不同的比率
45:39
are so many different things you can look at with fundamental stock analysis you can really drive yourself crazy and
問題是，在基本面股票分析中有太多不同的東西可以看，真的會讓你感到困惑
45:45
we've covered a lot of things and we've talked about the best case scenarios of what it is that you are looking for and
我們已經涵蓋了很多內容，也討論了你尋找的最佳情況
45:50
i just want to let you guys know you're never going to find an investment that meets all of your criteria if you go
我只想讓你們知道，你永遠找不到符合所有標準的投資
45:55
through this and you write down all the things i'm looking for on a fundamental level for a stock and you go through and
如果你走完這個過程，寫下我在股票基本面層面上尋找的所有條件，然後去分析股票
46:00
you analyze stocks you can analyze stocks until the cows come home and you probably will never find a company that
你可以一直分析下去，直到天荒地老，可能永遠找不到符合所有特定要求的公司
46:06
meets all of these specific requirements so instead what you're doing is you're looking through these and trying to find
所以相反，你要做的是瀏覽這些條件，試圖找到最佳選擇
46:11
the best possible option and maybe you're willing to have some leeway on certain things and you don't have to use
也許你願意在某些事情上放寬標準，而且你不必使用
46:16
all these ratios i just want to explain to you what these tools are and what they allow you to do and a lot of these
這些比率我只是想向你解釋這些工具是什麼以及它們能讓你做什麼，而且很多工具
46:22
things actually calculate some of the stuff we've talked about earlier on for you so it's an easier way to compare
會自動計算我們之前討論過的一些數據，這樣能更輕鬆地比較
46:28
these things but we're going to talk about the financial ratios first of all the liquidity ratios which is the
這些項目，但我們首先要談的是財務比率，首先是流動性比率，也就是
46:33
current ratio the quick ratio and the cash ratio all these ratios show you the ability this company has to pay back
流動比率、速動比率和現金比率，這些比率顯示這家公司償還
46:39
debt and then we have the margin ratios the uh gross margin the operating margin and
債務的能力，接著是利潤率，包括毛利率、營業利潤率和
46:44
the profit margin and then the after tax roe or return on equity so first of all let's go ahead and talk about the
淨利率，以及稅後股東權益報酬率（ROE），那麼首先，我們來談談
46:51
current ratio the current ratio shows you the coverage current assets have on current liabilities this is something
流動比率，流動比率顯示流動資產對流動負債的覆蓋程度，這是我通常
46:57
that i usually calculate myself but if you want to you can just go over to the financial ratios and take a look at the
自己會計算的，但如果你想省事，可以直接查看財務比率中的
47:02
current ratio so if you had a current ratio of 100 percent that means that the current assets have complete coverage of
流動比率，所以如果你的流動比率是100%，那就意味著流動資產完全覆蓋了
47:08
current liabilities so the cash and assets that are readily convertible into cash in one year have complete coverage
流動負債，也就是說，現金以及一年內可輕易轉換成現金的資產，完全足以支付
47:15
of any short-term debt that is being paid back within that year so what i always like to see is a current ratio of
任何在一年內到期的短期債務，所以我總是希望看到流動比率
47:21
above 100 percent that means they have coverage of their short-term liabilities now the quick ratio is going to show you
高於100%，這意味著他們對短期負債有足夠的覆蓋，現在速動比率將顯示
47:27
how the convertible assets have coverage of current liabilities and honestly guys i don't really rely on the quick ratio
可轉換資產對流動負債的覆蓋程度，老實說，各位，我其實不太依賴速動比率
47:33
at all i pretty much look at just the current ratio and the cash ratio and as i'm sure you guys can imagine the cash
我幾乎只看流動比率和現金比率，而我相信你們能想像，現金
47:39
ratio shows you how much coverage cash and cash equivalents have on current liabilities or short-term debt so
比率顯示現金及現金等價物對流動負債或短期債務的覆蓋程度，所以
47:45
ideally you'd find a company with 100 cash ratio which means they have enough cash and equivalents to pay back all
理想情況下，你會找到一家現金比率為1的公司，這意味著他們有足夠的現金和等價物來償還所有
47:52
their short-term debt but again that's in a perfect world and you're probably not going to find that with an
短期債務，但同樣的，這是完美情況，你可能在實際
47:56
investment now moving on let's talk about the margin ratios so the gross margin is a comparison between the gross
投資中找不到這樣的情況，現在接著，我們來談談利潤率，毛利率是將公司的
48:02
profit a company has to the sales revenue and this is the money a company has before paying any operating expenses
毛利與銷售收入做比較，這是公司在支付任何營運支出和
48:08
and financing costs now the operating margin is a comparison between the operating income and the sales revenue
財務成本之前所擁有的錢，而營業利潤率則是營業收入與銷售收入的比較
48:14
and this is essentially how much a company makes before paying interest and taxes on each dollar of sales and the
這本質上是一家公司在每銷售一美元時，在支付利息和稅款前所賺取的金額，
48:20
profit margin i think is the most important one it shows you how much the company is earning on each dollar of
而利潤率我認為是最重要的，它顯示了公司每銷售一美元所賺取的利潤，
48:25
sales and then the after tax roe shows you the post tax profit a company generates with the money invested from
稅後股東權益報酬率（ROE）則顯示了公司利用股東投資的資金所產生的稅後利潤。
48:32
shareholders so what am i looking for when i'm analyzing these numbers number one i want to see a current ratio
那麼，當我在分析這些數字時，我在尋找什麼呢？第一，我希望看到流動比率
48:37
between 120 to 200 percent this means the company has good coverage of their short-term debt and current assets have
介於 120% 到 200% 之間，這意味著公司對其短期債務有良好的覆蓋率，且流動資產
48:44
greater coverage than current liabilities and if they had 200 coverage that means that the current assets are
對流動負債的覆蓋率更高。如果覆蓋率達到 200%，則意味著流動資產
48:50
double what the current liabilities are as far as the quick ratio goes you're looking for about a 75 to 100 percent
是流動負債的兩倍。至於速動比率，你希望看到大約 75% 到 100%，
48:56
and then as far as the cash ratio goes 50 to 100 percent is reasonable but you don't want to see the cash ratio
而現金比率方面，50% 到 100% 是合理的，但你不希望看到現金比率
49:02
climbing too high because that means that that company might not be taking on enough liabilities they might be being
攀升得太高，因為這意味著該公司可能沒有承擔足夠的負債，他們可能過於
49:07
too conservative and that may be hindering their growth you want to see a company utilizing financing avenues and
保守，這可能會阻礙他們的成長。你希望看到一家公司利用融資渠道，
49:13
taking on a healthy amount of debt but a cash ratio of 100 percent would mean that their cash and cash equivalents
並承擔適度的債務，但 100% 的現金比率意味著他們的現金及現金等價物
49:20
have complete coverage of their current liabilities or short-term debt now as far as the margins go gross margin you
完全涵蓋了他們的流動負債或短期債務。至於利潤率，毛利率你
49:26
typically want to see about 25 or more uh operating margin again about 25 plus the profit margin of 20 plus is great
通常希望看到大約 25% 或更高，營業利潤率同樣希望大約 25% 以上，利潤率 20% 以上就很棒，
49:35
and a return on equity of 15 is fantastic as well but i just want to remind you guys that all of these
而 15% 的股東權益報酬率也非常出色。但我只想提醒大家，所有這些
49:41
figures here four through eight as far as the margin and return on equity goes it's very sector and industry dependent
這裡的數字，從第四到第八項，關於利潤率和股東權益報酬率的部分，它非常依賴於板塊和行業，
49:47
you're going to find that each sector and industry just like with the p e ratio has different levels of normality
你會發現每個板塊和行業，就像本益比一樣，都有不同的正常水平，
49:53
or what you should expect as a return on equity or as far as profit margins and gross margin and margin in general goes
或者說你對股東權益報酬率、利潤率、毛利率或一般利潤率的預期。
50:00
the best way to do this is to take a look at the industry average overall and look at some of the other companies and
最好的方法是查看行業的整體平均水平，並看看其他一些公司，
50:05
compare the return on equity and the margins of one company to another company to determine whether or not this
將一家公司的股東權益報酬率和利潤率與另一家公司進行比較，以確定這家公司
50:11
company has better margins and return on equity but generally speaking these would be good numbers to look for but
是否擁有更好的利潤率和股東權益報酬率，但一般來說，這些數字會是值得參考的好指標。
50:17
again it's going to be very hard to find an investment that meets all this criteria here we have reached our final
要找到符合所有這些標準的投資將非常困難，我們已經來到本系列的最後一支影片
50:23
video in this series here and what we are going to do is go through my final checklist of all the items i'm looking
我們將要檢視我的最終清單，列出我在完美情況下會尋找的所有項目
50:28
for in a perfect world and again guys remember you will likely never find an investment that's going to be all 12 of
再次提醒各位，請記住您可能永遠找不到完全具備這 12 項特質的投資
50:34
these things here but this is what i'm looking for in an ideal world and what we do is we look for the best possible
但這就是我在理想世界中尋找的目標，我們要做的是尋找基本面最佳的投資
50:40
investment looking at the fundamentals but this is what i'm looking for number one we talked about the p e ratio the
以下就是我的尋找標準：第一，我們談過本益比 (PE ratio)
50:46
peg and the forward p e and i'm looking for a reasonable ratio across all these figures here to make sure that this
本益成長比 (PEG) 和預期本益比 (forward PE)，我尋找這些數字之間合理的比例
50:52
stock is not likely overvalued or all of that future growth is priced into today's number number two i look at the
以確保這檔股票不太可能被高估，或者未來的成長都已反映在今天的股價中。第二，我會看股利涵蓋率
50:59
dividend coverage ratio if this is a dividend stock i make sure the company can actually afford to pay this dividend
如果這是股利型股票，我會確保公司有能力支付這筆股利
51:04
and i also make sure the company is not being greedy and retaining too much of the earnings for themselves
同時我也會確保公司沒有過於貪婪，為自己保留太多盈餘
51:09
number three i look at the revenue growth i want to see that revenue is growing faster than the cost of revenue
第三，我會看營收成長，我希望看到營收成長速度快於營收成本
51:15
or at the very least they are keeping up with each other and revenue growth is equal to the growth of the cost of
或者至少兩者保持同步，營收成長等於營收成本的成長
51:20
revenue number four i want to see gross profit is increasing especially if this is a growth stock i want to see a
第四，我希望看到毛利率增加，特別是如果這是一檔成長型股票，我希望看到毛利率
51:26
double-digit growth of the gross profit year over year number five i want to look at the
每年有兩位數的成長。第五，我想查看
51:30
short-term and the long-term coverage of debt on the balance sheet looking at assets and liabilities number six i look
資產負債表上的短期和長期債務涵蓋率，觀察資產和負債
51:36
at the growth rate of total assets and total liabilities i want to see if assets are growing faster than
第六，我會看總資產和總負債的成長率，我想知道資產是否比負債成長得更快
51:42
liabilities and i also look at the current assets versus the current liabilities to see if the short-term
同時我也會比較流動資產與流動負債，以了解短期
51:47
liabilities or short-term debt are growing faster than the current assets number seven i look at the cash flow
負債或短期債務的成長速度是否快於流動資產。第七，我會看營業活動現金流
51:53
from operations and i also look at the cash and cash equivalence growth rate on the balance sheet to determine whether
同時我也會看資產負債表上現金及約當現金的成長率，以判斷
51:59
or not this company is deemed a cash cow number eight i look at stockholders equity i want to see a consistent growth
這家公司是否被視為搖錢樹 (cash cow)。第八，我會看股東權益
52:05
rate of stockholders equity and 10 percent or double-digit growth is fantastic
我希望看到股東權益有持續的成長率，10% 或兩位數的成長非常棒
52:10
number nine i look at the cash flow from operations growth rate to see if they have more cash flow from operations
第九點，我會檢視營業活動現金流量的成長率，看看他們是否有更多的營業活動現金流入
52:16
coming in and again that will be indicated looking at the balance sheet looking at the cash and cash equivalents
同樣地，這可以透過觀察資產負債表中的現金及約當現金來判斷
52:21
number 10 i want to see a current ratio of above 120 percent that means they have good short-term debt coverage their
第十點，我希望看到流動比率高於 120%，這表示他們有良好的短期債務償還能力
52:28
current liabilities do not exceed their current assets number 11 i want to see margins in general above 20 for a growth
他們的流動負債不會超過流動資產。第十一點，對於成長型投資，我希望看到整體利潤率高於 20%
52:35
investment and i also pay attention to the trend i look at the last couple of years and i see our margins consistent
我同時也會留意趨勢，我會檢視過去幾年的數據，看看利潤率是持平
52:42
our margins growing or our margins declining and number 12 i want to see a return on equity above 15 percent and
成長還是衰退。第十二點，我希望看到股東權益報酬率高於 15%
52:48
once again what is the trend with this is return on equity growing consistent or shrinking
再次強調，其趨勢為何？是成長、持平還是萎縮？
