00:05
my knees had a palazzi from there and we lecture for this mr.
我的膝蓋從那裡就開始發抖，而我們要為這位先生講授這門課。
00:12
macroeconomics I hope in the right place I hope you are here to the same place as well
總體經濟學，希望我沒走錯地方，也希望你們也來到了相同的地方。
00:20
what I'm going to do today is to give you some overview or introduction of what we're going to cover this semester
我今天要做的是，向你們概述或介紹我們這學期將涵蓋的內容。
00:29
and I will also be happy to answer any questions you may have about this module
我也很樂意回答你們對這個模組可能有的任何問題。
00:36
about the teaching assessment all these exciting stuff that you probably waiting to hear about before I start I just want
關於教學評量，所有這些你們可能在聽我開始之前就等著聽的有趣事情，我只想讓你們知道。
00:46
to let you know that you can find me online and we're doing this lecture and
你們可以在網路上找到我，我們正在進行這個講座。
00:52
hopefully if there's no issues with the bike and the recording would be on my
希望如果腳踏車和錄影沒問題的話，錄影會在我的。
01:02
youtube channel dynamics and you can also pull me into it several other social media platforms but mainly the
YouTube 頻道「Dynamics」上，你們也可以在其他幾個社交媒體平台上找到我，但主要的。
01:11
lectures will be on weiu my youtube channel notes so let's go
講座將在 Weiu（可能是某個平台或拼寫錯誤）我的 YouTube 頻道筆記上，所以我們開始吧。
01:18
it's working a recording I believe a recording to that channel okay so this
錄影正在運作，我相信錄影會傳送到那個頻道，好的，那麼這就是。
01:25
what we're going to do today okay we we
我們今天要做的事，好的，我們。
01:32
hope to explain what macroeconomics is and also I would like to talk about
希望解釋總體經濟學是什麼，我也想談談。
01:40
different aspects related to the module itself as I said teaching communication how are you going to reach me the
與這個模組本身相關的不同方面，正如我說過的，教學溝通，你們要如何聯繫我。
01:48
assessment etc and any questions you may have about this volume and also I will
評量等等，以及你們對這個模組可能有的任何問題，我也會。
01:54
take you in the word about the world
帶你們進入關於世界。
02:00
specific events and some indicators just to show how relevant market economics is
的具體事件和一些指標，只是為了展示市場經濟有多相關。
02:08
how relevant what we are going to do here is to the world because so it's very important but let's now start first
我們在這裡要做的事與世界有多相關，因為這非常重要，但讓我們現在先從。
02:18
with the very most basic question whilst macroeconomics okay and before I talk
最基本的問題開始，什麼是總體經濟學，在我談論。
02:27
about what these macroeconomics I actually want to take you back to economics what do we didn't need your
這些總體經濟學之前，我其實想帶你們回到經濟學，我們不需要你的。
02:37
honest you can omit to the subject is what about you can I show all you know
誠實，你可以省略這個主題，關於你可以，我可以展示你所知道的。
02:44
that so you have limited resources unlimited at once and you want to use these resources to satisfy or to meet
所以你擁有的資源有限，但慾望無窮，而你想利用這些資源來滿足你的需求
02:53
your unlimited wants okay so in doing so we then you have to make choices and what we do in economics is
或是達成你的無窮慾望。好的，在這樣做的過程中，你就必須做出選擇，而經濟學所做的事情就是
03:03
studying those choices okay so if you're not X's not about it's not about money it's not about anything else
研究這些選擇。好的，所以如果你不... 這不是關於... 不是關於錢，也不是關於其他任何東西
03:10
it's basically studying this behavior making choices okay of course you will understand the protocol because every
它基本上是在研究這種做選擇的行為。好的，當然你會理解其中的代價，因為每當你做出一個
03:18
choice you made that means you give up something in the same time okay so taking you back to the most fundamental
選擇，這意味著你同時也放棄了某些東西。好的，讓我們回到最根本的
03:26
point that out what economics is I just want you to keep in mind yeah we all aware of and the fact that economics is
點來說明經濟學是什麼，我希望你記住，是的，我們都知道這個事實，那就是經濟學是
03:36
were that economic problem of us the limited resources and this on such
關於我們的經濟問題，也就是有限的資源以及...
03:43
economic problem faces every economic units so not just individuals it makes actually every individual so it doesn't
這個經濟問題面臨於每一個經濟單位，所以不只是個人，它其實影響到每一個人，所以這無關
03:53
matter how rich you are you still have to make choices okay instead have limited resource resources
你有多富有，你仍然必須做出選擇。好的，因為你的資源是有限的
04:01
compared to your AdWords so that applies to every units okay when I talk about units here basically
相較於你的慾望，所以這適用於每一個單位。好的，當我這裡提到單位時，基本上
04:09
because households firms name it so any individual which can make a decision
是指家庭、公司等等，任何可以做出
04:16
about how to use that limited or scarce resources so basically just keep that in your mind all the time so basically what
關於如何使用那些有限或稀少資源決定的個體。所以基本上，請隨時把這點記在心裡，我們在這裡基本上
04:25
we're trying to do here just we study those the behavior of these economic units so to be individuals it could be
試圖做的事情，就是研究這些經濟單位的行為，所以可能是個人，也可能是
04:32
countries it could be any unit that make decisions so that will take you to the point that how what is the difference
國家，或是任何能做決策的單位，這樣就能帶你到下一個點，那就是
04:40
then between microeconomics and macroeconomics as you can see from this slide macro means large so that's what
微觀經濟學和宏觀經濟學有什麼不同。正如你從這張投影片看到的，Macro（宏觀）意指大規模，所以那是我們
04:48
we actually interested it okay maybe Michael you were interested in and they've even won in people people have
真正感興趣的。好的，也許 Micro（微觀）是你感興趣的，它關注的是個體，人們如何
04:57
they going to maximize their utility given whatever restrictions they face and then that was one thing that's
在他們面臨的任何限制下最大化他們的效用，而那是微觀經濟學中真正涵蓋的一件事，或者你可以看我們可能看過的，在什麼
05:07
really covered in microeconomics or you could look at we probably looked at have a third or a single firm under what
條件下，一個單一的廠商會... 然後他們將如何利用他們有限的
05:15
multi condition they great and then how they're going to use their limited
資源來最大化他們的利潤，所以那是在微觀層級，也就是小的層面。
05:20
resources to maximize their profits so that was at the micro level at the small
資源來最大化他們的利潤，所以那是在微觀層級，也就是小的層面。
05:28
level but in microeconomics thing we are interested in a big picture we are interested in large units okay so we
但在微觀經濟學中，我們感興趣的是宏觀視野，是大型單位，明白嗎？
05:36
don't talk about one also get back money to be able to talk about all households we're not talking about one firm took of
所以我們不談論單一家庭，而是要能談論所有家庭；我們不談論單一公司，而是
05:42
it all firms okay so we're looking at the whole nation or the whole economy I hope so just taking you back taking
所有公司。所以我們關注的是整個國家或整個經濟體。希望這樣能讓你回想起，從過去只關注個別單位，
05:51
you from that point where you used to look at individual units now to look at the bigger picture or to see the whole
現在轉向宏觀視野或綜覽整個經濟體。這是我們在本模組中想要達到的目標。順便一提，
05:56
economy this is the step that we are aiming for in this module so and by the
當你看到這個圖示，看起來像點擊這裡，這意味著
06:04
way whenever you see this icon there looks like the click here means that
這是你可以閱讀或觀看的內容。所以你可以點擊這些連結，看看我推薦你閱讀的內容。
06:12
this is some some something that you could read or watch so you could follow these links and see what I'm
這篇「微觀與宏觀：經濟學的分歧」是由 IMF 的人撰寫的一篇非常有趣的文章，停止玩樂，這非常有趣，所以我真的很推薦，
06:20
recommending for you to read so this micro and macro the economic
如果你不打算點擊其他連結也沒關係，但至少讀一下這篇「微觀與宏觀：經濟學的分歧」。
06:27
divide is very interesting article written by one of the IMF stop the fun stuff it's very interesting so I would
好了，現在讓我們回到正題，什麼是
06:36
really recommend that if you're not going to click the others that's fine but at least on one micro and macro the
市場？你現在注意到，我們知道 macro 意思是大，所以我們關注的是大型、大型單位，而非個別
06:44
economic departure okay so now let's go to the points to that point so what is
單位。所以如果要給它一個定義，感謝雙方，這是一門研究經濟行為或不同經濟行為者行為的學科，
06:53
market you notice now we know how do you say okay macro means large so we're looking at large large units individual
但請記住，我們對這些你在微觀經濟學中可能學過的個別行為者不感興趣，
07:01
units so if we were to give it a definition thank you each side this is the subject that study the behavior of
我們實際上關注的是宏觀視野，所以我們要看看他們如何透過市場互動，
07:09
economic or different economic agents but just remember here so we don't interested in these individual agents
並由此決定經濟體的整體結果。所以市場可以是商品市場、金融市場、勞動市場
07:18
that you probably studied in microeconomics and then we actually looking at the bigger picture so we're
等等。所以我們就採用這個定義，這沒問題，讓我們看看經濟行為者是什麼意思。
07:23
going to see how they interact through markets and have that determine overall
記得我說過，當我談到微觀經濟學時，我說的是消費者，對吧？或個體，他們將如何使用他們的收入，
07:29
outcome in an economy so markets could be goods markets financial markets labor
他們受到一些限制。
07:37
markets etc so let's just take this definition one bar that's fine and let's
市場等等，所以我們就採用這個定義，一個條款就可以了，然後讓我們
07:46
see what we mean by economic agents remember when I say that actually I said so when I talk about my crew are
了解經濟主體的意義。當我說到這個時，我其實是說，當我提到我的群體時，他們
07:57
interested in the consumer okay or an individual how they're going to use their income they're subject to some
對消費者感興趣，好吧，或者說是個人，他們將如何使用他們的所得，他們受限於某些
08:05
constraint the prices and income and how they're going to maximize their satisfaction or negativity so here
限制條件下的價格與所得，以及他們如何最大化其滿足感或負向效果，所以這裡
08:12
actually I'm interested in how schools so all individuals so individuals and also I'm not interested in one firm or
實際上我感興趣的是所有個體，所以是個體，而且我也對單一企業或
08:21
interests in all firms so this is the business sector so looking at the business sector are looking at the big
對所有企業的興趣，所以這是商業部門，觀察商業部門就是觀察宏觀
08:26
picture looking at the bigger units okay so not the individual units and also
圖景，觀察較大的單位，好的，不是個別單位，還有
08:34
economic agency would refer to the or include also the public sector which include the government and the monetary
經濟行為主體也會指涉或包含公共部門，其中包括政府與貨幣
08:42
authorities so we will talk about the government we talk about physical policy we took our taxes we talked about
當局，所以我們將會討論政府，我們討論財政政策，我們討論稅收，我們討論
08:49
government spending we talked about monetary policy restraint okay so more
政府支出，我們討論貨幣政策限制，好的，更多
08:57
interesting and stuff here you will see how we can actually link those two policy or how we can link what we study
有趣的內容在這裡，你將會看到我們如何實際連結這兩種政策，或者我們如何連結我們在這裡
09:06
here so what you hear and very often in the news okay about fiscal policy or monetary policy interest rate exchange
所學習的內容，所以你在新聞中經常聽到的，好的，關於財政政策或貨幣政策、利率、匯率
09:16
rate on this kind of very interesting stuff and also we have the rest of the world because we not living in a closed
這類非常有趣的內容，還有我們有世界其他地區，因為我們並非生活在一個封閉的
09:24
economy so we have connections with the rest of the world some decisions made by economic agents that live abroad still
經濟體中，所以我們與世界其他地區有連結，由居住在國外的經濟行為主體所做的某些決策仍然
09:33
have some sort of impact links with what happened in the domestic economy so going back to my definition here so we
會對國內經濟發生的事情產生某種連結與影響，所以回到我的定義，我們
09:42
we actually studying the behavior remember so you know about money form is about money
實際上是在研究行為，記住，所以你知道關於金錢的形式是關於金錢
09:47
okay so economics is about studying these choice of these economic agents making their
好的，所以經濟學是關於研究這些經濟行為主體做出他們的
09:54
choices or making this decision so when you talk about economic agents in a magnet there are ways that again some
選擇或做出這些決策，所以當你在經濟體中談論經濟行為主體時，有一些方式再次提到某些
10:00
talk about all have schools so the bigger picture remember we talked about at firms we talk about public households
談論所有部門，所以宏觀圖景，記住我們談過的企業，我們談過公共部門、家庭
10:09
of course say and they only factor production d-dimensional wage or salary
當然，還有生產要素，維度是工資或薪資
10:16
labor capital and they consume goods and services firms they produce news and services and also they hire the factors
勞動、資本，他們消費商品與服務，企業生產商品與服務，並且他們雇用生產要素
10:25
of production from from households so this sort of this is the interaction we talk about so if you go back the game to
來自家庭，所以這種就是我們所說的互動，所以如果你回到
10:32
my definition so we study the behavior of economic agents so hopefully you ever know what we mean by economic agents and
我的定義，我們研究經濟行為主體的行為，所以希望你已經知道我們所說的經濟行為主體是什麼意思，以及
10:40
how they interact sit together so this is exactly what I mean by the interaction between these different
它們如何互動與共存，這正是我所說的這些不同主體之間的互動。
10:45
agents okay so households they work for which ain't them and then they they buy products so they consume goods and
好的，家庭為企業工作，然後他們購買產品，因此他們消費商品與服務。
10:54
services on the other side firms they hire labor they produce goods and services the public sector as I said
另一方面，企業僱用勞工，生產商品與服務。正如我之前所說的公共部門，
11:03
before it means or refers to the government and the monetary authorities and when we look at the government basic
指的是政府與貨幣當局。當我們看政府時，
11:12
you talk about taxes and
基本上我們談的是稅收與
11:15
spending policy and monetary policy we talk about monetary policy talk about
支出政策，而談到貨幣政策時，我們談的是貨幣供給、利率、匯率等等。
11:23
money supply interest rate exchange rate etc okay so how this interaction we do so going back to microeconomics we look
好的，那麼我們如何進行這種互動呢？回到微觀經濟學，我們看
11:32
at the bigger picture we look at how economic agents into act and have they determined different outcome in the for
更宏觀的圖景，我們看經濟主體如何互動，以及它們如何決定
11:41
the overall economy and that could be look at my dad knows how much an economy
整體經濟的不同結果。這可以從我們如何知道一個經濟體
11:49
is growing okay and we learn how do we know whether an economy where
增長了多少來觀察。好的，我們學習如何判斷一個給定的經濟體
11:55
a given economy is growing or not so you think about that we need some insurance means and how to measure measuring or
是否在增長。所以請思考一下，我們需要一些衡量手段以及如何測量或
12:04
how to quantify it so we can say an economy X is growing and economy wines not old X is growing more or faster than
量化它，這樣我們才能說經濟體 X 在增長，而經濟體 Y 沒有，或者 X 比 Y 增長得更快。
12:14
the mind also it could be related to the general level of prices so the price level in the economy okay it's not only
這也可能與一般物價水準有關，也就是經濟體中的物價水準。好的，這不僅是
12:22
I'm not talking about one product I'm not talking about one service of wine good I'm talking about the the price
我不是在談論單一產品，也不是在談論單一服務或某個商品，我是在談論整個
12:30
level or the as a whole in the whole economy average so we talked about unemployment and it went well the human
經濟體的平均物價水準或整體情況。我們談到了失業率，以及人力
12:39
capital or humans or life is one of the resources we know from what we covered before and from the first slide that
資本或人力或生命，這是我們之前涵蓋過的資源之一，從第一張投影片我們知道
12:47
economics is all of that scarcely okay limited resources so if we have
經濟學就是關於那些稀缺的——好的，有限的資源。所以如果我們有
12:54
unemployment that means there there's some waste and and that is a problem that we need to understand why is happen
失業，那就意味著存在某種浪費，這是個問題，我們需要了解為何會發生
13:04
and how to deal with it okay so I'm just giving you examples of what sort of
以及如何應對。好的，所以我只是給你們舉一些我們將會探討的
13:11
economic absolute that we would be looking at remember great started talking about what market economics is
經濟指標的例子。記住我們一開始談到什麼是市場經濟。
13:19
so first thing you say matters much that's what we know today as much and he said well it's all about the behavior of
所以首先你所說的很重要，這就是我們今天所知的「總體經濟學」，他說，這完全是關於行為的
13:28
we study the behavior of economic agents we know what the communications agents we talk about all
我們研究經濟行為者的行為，我們知道通訊行為者，我們談論所有
13:35
there were all friends or businesses who talked about the gaba root section of the public sector including the
有朋友或企業談論公共部門的 GABA 根區塊，包括
13:40
government's fiscal policy monetary policy so they have we'll also talk about the rest of the
政府的財政政策、貨幣政策，所以他們有，我們也會談論其餘的
13:46
world our links with the rest of the world as well so these are the big picture will be at the general occasions
世界，我們與世界其他地區的連結也是如此，所以這些是宏大的圖景，將會是一般場合
13:53
when we took in in macroeconomics and then how this how these agents interact together then what sort of outcome or
當我們在總體經濟學中進行研究時，以及這些行為者如何互動，然後會有什麼樣的結果或
14:02
economic outcome will be enhanced so these are examples of some indicators you can say that we look at that we are
經濟結果會被增強，所以這些是我們在總體經濟學中感興趣的一些指標例子，我們想要了解，我們想要對經濟表現做出一些判斷
14:09
interested in in macroeconomics we want to understand we want to make some judgment that the economic performance
以及實際上是增加還是減少，所以我們觀察它們增長了多少或有多快，我們觀察通貨膨脹，我們觀察
14:16
and actually a or contra be so we look at how much or how fast they grow and we look at the inflation we look at the
失業率的決定，好的，同時我們也觀察商業週期，關於它們經濟如何，這是某種
14:25
unemployment rate decision okay and also we look at the business cycles on hand how they economy how this is something
實際上內嵌在經濟概念中的東西，然後它會有起伏，所以我們有這種
14:35
that is actually embedded in the in the nation of the economy and then it goes ups and downs so we have this sort of
決定週期的畫布，所以我們需要研究這些，所以這些只是我們將會涵蓋的一些例子，以及我們在
14:43
canvas what determines the so compare cycles so we need to study these so these are just some examples of what we
總體經濟學中通常感興趣的內容，如果你有任何問題可以問我，不要問旁邊的人
14:52
will be covering and also what will be what we are generally interested in in
明年，好的，所以嗯，再做一些
14:59
macroeconomics if you have any question you can ask me don't ask the person next
實際數據的例子，所以你在這裡看到的是，正如我所說，我們在磁力異常中感興趣的重要事情之一是
15:05
year okay so um just again do some more
我們必須了解為什麼每個 X 都比國家富有，為什麼
15:11
examples with real data so what you can see here is as I said one of the important things that we are interested
測量經濟表現的一種方法是觀察實際產生了多少產出並支付，所以現在我們可以
15:21
in in magnetic anomalies we must understand why every X is richer than country why
看到實際上製造了一些 tough people Tendo，我們可以對經濟規模有一些指標，好的，所以
15:30
so one way to measure economic performance we look at how much output actually produces and pay so now we can
基本上我們觀察產出，我們也可以觀察人均產出，這應該會給出一些
15:40
see actually made some tough people Tendo we can have some indication about the size of the economy okay so
看到實際上製造了一些困難，人們天啊，我們可以對經濟體的規模有一些指標，好吧，所以
15:47
basically we look look at the outputs we could also look at the outputs per person and that should give some
基本上我們觀察產出，我們也可以觀察人均產出，這應該會給出一些
15:54
indication about the standard of living in in a given country so what do you see in the map it's as I said it's a green
所以在一個特定國家中，關於生活水準的指標是什麼？那麼你在地圖上看到了什麼？就像我說的，這是一個綠色的世界
16:03
world data and that give us the GDP per capita which will again think of GDP as the output this is how much I actually
數據，這些數據提供我們人均 GDP，你可以再次將 GDP 想像成產出，這是我實際
16:11
produces and per capita here means to just a person so you divide the GB or
生產了多少，而這裡的人均指的是一個人，所以你將 GDP 或
16:20
commercially produce divided by the population so that give you the GDP per capita and as I said that gives some
商業生產總值除以人口，這樣就得到人均 GDP，正如我所說，這提供了一些
16:27
indication about the living standards in so what you see here gives from very
關於生活水準的指標，所以你在這裡看到的從非常
16:36
light blue or nearly white color to dark blue car so as you move toward the dark blue car that means it's a richer
淺藍色或近乎白色的顏色到深藍色，當你移向深藍色時，意味著這是較富裕的
16:45
countries higher or this is higher level of GB per capsule okay so it's pretty clear we look at the map here you see
國家，或者說這是較高的人均 GDP 水準，好的，這非常清楚，我們看看這張地圖，你看到
16:53
which countries richer than well where are their chances and and that's what we
哪些國家比其他國家更富裕，這就是我們在這裡
17:01
son here okay we want to understand this we want to percent how can just grow
看到的，好的，我們想了解這點，我們想知道經濟如何能成長，
17:11
howdy come before me and go okay what are the determinants or the factors that can help a country to grow so this is
經濟如何能增長，那麼，有哪些決定因素或因素可以幫助一個國家成長？所以這只是
17:21
just an example and I could see a quotient here will you think about GDP per capita output per person as an
一個例子，我在這裡看到一個問題，你將人均 GDP、每人產出視為
17:28
indication of the standard because this is not always true okay so let's you have to be pretty careful when
生活水準的指標，因為這並不總是正確的，好的，所以當你
17:36
you think about the GDP per capita as as
將人均 GDP 視為
17:39
an indication of the the standard of
一個國家生活水準的
17:46
living and giving country because if if I say I always give this very very silly and named example but it just does the
指標時，你必須非常小心，因為如果我說... 我總是舉這個非常愚蠢且有名的例子，但它很有效，
17:55
job this say this is our country okay we're almost citizens in this
假設這是我們的國家，好的，我們是這個國家的
18:01
country and we will only say 100 for the total income is one hundred thousand
唯一公民，我們的總收入只有一百萬英鎊，我這裡有 99 人，而你們所有人分享那 1000 英鎊，
18:10
pounds I hear 99 and you all share the 1000 pound
這能顯示這個國家有多富裕嗎？不能，這正是 GDP
18:17
does that give an indication about how much rich this country is it doesn't that's exactly what gdb protected us
想要告訴我們的，這正是它甚至不必告訴我們的，但通常較高的 GDP 水準通常與...
18:24
this is exactly what she didn't even have to tell you but we usually a higher level of GDP usually associated with
這正是它甚至不必告訴我們的，但通常較高的 GDP 水準通常與
18:31
higher neighborhood income so a note saying TB or higher GDP per capita is bad it's actually good but there's not
較高的社區收入 所以有種說法是人均GDP越高越好 這其實是好事 但僅憑這點
18:40
enough to make some conclusion about the standard of living in a given country to each you think about the distribution of
不足以對某個國家的生活水準做出結論 你得考慮收入的分配
18:48
income so that's exactly what they that's that the per CD and they the example I just mentioned now okay so
這正是人均GDP所呈現的 我剛才提到的例子就是這個意思 好的
18:55
yeah one hundred thousand ninety nine percent of the income and they all showed up together share one percent
沒錯 100%的收入 他們佔了99% 他們全部加起來只共享1%
19:03
okay so this is again is about inequalities about the the distribution of income so this is just a quotient I
好的 所以這再次是關於不平等 關於收入分配的問題 這只是一個指標
19:12
want you to keep in mind we've talked about after as an indication of the standard
我希望大家記住 我們之前討論過 作為衡量某個國家
19:17
of living in a given country buts fine okay that's as I said GDP or GDP growth or higher GDP per capita isn't bad in
生活水準的指標 但這沒問題 如我所說 GDP或GDP成長 或較高的人均GDP本身並非壞事
19:26
itself okay and but it's not it's not sufficient so this just zooming some countries you need and you need to worry
但它並不充分 所以這只是某些國家的縮影 你需要注意
19:35
about which countries are which because these are just a kind of for this and
哪些國家是哪些 因為這只是示意圖
19:43
this will probably the graph but what what is the message I want to show you
這張圖可能有點亂 但我想傳達的
19:53
here is that again some countries are richer than others so you see some proof
訊息是 再次強調 有些國家比其他國家富有 所以你看到有些
19:59
standards here enjoying high GDP per capita compared to the others so this is the GDP per capita
國家享有比其他國家高的人均GDP 這是人均GDP
20:07
so spring office and this theta goes from 1980 till twenty to twenty seventeen again as I said these are real
所以是人均GDP 這段時間從1980年到2017年 再次強調 這些是實際
20:17
tighter and the source pumper ones back okay so what is the point here so again
數據 來源是 Penn World Table 好的 所以重點是什麼 再次
20:24
the point is to show you an example to give you an example of what we will be interested in gdb how we can visualize
重點是給大家一個例子 讓大家了解我們將會關注GDP的哪些方面 我們如何將其視覺化
20:32
okay how we can make this sort of comparison between different entries remember we're looking at the big
好的 我們如何在不同國家之間進行這種比較 記住我們看的是
20:38
picture and that is that's what macro means okay so we are interested in that so these are the again one of the
大局 這就是宏觀的意思 好的 所以我們對此感興趣 這些再次是
20:47
examples of the economic a scam that take place won't happen because of the interaction of actually between
經濟發生的其中一些例子 這些是因為不同經濟個體之間
20:55
different economic agents again what are these economic agents to households firms government or the public sector
的互動而發生的 這些經濟個體是哪些 家庭、企業、政府或公共部門
21:02
and then the rest of the world so and this is they of course GED or outputs how much they produce
以及世界其他地區 所以 這些就是GDP或產出 也就是他們生產了多少
21:09
this is an example of the sort of actor so how did the
這是關於此類行為者的一個例子，那麼是如何做到的呢
21:17
another another example a cabinet the economics grow faster slower than the others so what you see here is the
另一個例子，某個經濟體的成長速度比其他經濟體快或慢，所以你在這裡看到的是
21:26
growth right so basically what we're talking about here is a person to change in in gdb so obviously if you look at
成長，對吧？所以基本上我們在這裡談論的是人均國內生產總值（GDP）的變動，所以顯然如果你看
21:35
that the top one which maybe you want is this I think this is if you give it goes
最上面那個，也許你想要的是這個，我認為這是如果你給它，它會
21:42
pretty fast okay so remember when we took gravity is that how fast they grow you talk about the person changing tdv
變得相當快，好的，所以請記住當我們談到重力時，那是關於它們成長得多快，你談論的是人均GDP的變動
21:50
so when you look when you compare that for example I think that black lines proceed so won't understand what's
所以當你比較時，例如，我認為那條黑線代表，所以可能不明白這裡發生了什麼事
21:57
happening here so presume hand like some like you see this bit down there's like negative
所以假設手，就像你看到下面這段，像是負成長
22:02
growth so why it's happened I'm gonna ask you to give me an answer now okay that's example of what we going to cover
為什麼會發生這種情況，我現在要請你給我一個答案，好的，這是我們將要涵蓋內容的一個例子
22:10
things that we're going to talk about okay what determines good okay what's help or what factors can help the
我們將要討論的事情，好的，是什麼決定了GDP？或者是什麼因素可以幫助
22:18
country to grow and again when we talk about growing here in this example we talked about outputs look up a GDP gross
國家成長，再次強調，當我們在這個例子中談到成長時，我們談論的是產出，國內生產總值（GDP）
22:26
domestic product or GDP something that we will cover in detail in the next lecture so talk about these different
或GDP，這是我們將在下一堂課詳細介紹的內容，所以會談論這些不同的
22:36
indicators and move in more depth and more detail and explain how we we define them how we measure them how we use them
指標，並更深入、更詳細地探討，解釋我們如何定義它們、如何衡量它們、如何使用它們
22:43
okay and what shortcomings that we need to actually keep in mind when we use these
好的，以及當我們使用這些
22:48
sort of measures so anyway so this is just an example how again different
衡量標準時，我們需要記住的缺點是什麼，所以總之，這只是一個例子，說明不同的
22:55
growth rates different cattle again mrs.
成長率，不同的國家，再次強調，這是
22:59
Reagan data from 2010 to 2017 so so far
從2010年到2017年的數據，所以到目前為止
23:07
we talking about what is macroeconomics so what I started with is just a very
我們談論了什麼是宏觀經濟學，所以我一開始給的是一個非常
23:14
simple definition we study the behavior of economic agents and we know what both Asians are and how they are try together
簡單的定義，我們研究經濟行為者的行為，我們知道行為者是什麼，以及它們如何在
23:22
in different markets and these different lectures okay about the goods markets talk about labor market talk
不同的市場中相互關聯，在這些不同的講座中，關於商品市場、勞動市場、
23:30
about financial markets this actually different lecture so we need to know more that how these markets function how
金融市場，這實際上是不同的講座，所以我們需要更了解這些市場如何運作，以及
23:36
this market reach equilibrium will actually happen the behavior of difference agent that interacting in a
市場達到均衡的實際情況，取決於在特定市場中互動的不同行為者之行為，以及他們面臨的限制等因素，這些我們將在接下來的課程中詳細探討。
23:43
given market what sort of restrictions they face etc and this is something we will cover in
因此，這是我們感興趣的經濟指標另一個例子，你可能在新聞中聽過很多次，
23:49
detail in coming lectures so another example of the economic indicators that
就是通貨膨脹率。我們稍後會再討論資訊，現在先思考物價水平的普遍上漲，
23:56
we actually interested in in in magnetic anomalies on you probably have heared about this many times in in the news of
其反面則是通貨緊縮。我們談到的是整體價格的普遍上漲，那麼我們這裡有什麼？
24:06
very often in the news is inflation rate okay so we took about information soon for now just think about the rise or a
我們想知道的是，在通膨指數中，我們再次想要理解是什麼導致價格上漲或下跌，
24:14
general rise in the level of price and the opposite to that is deflation so we
所以我們真的想理解通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮，我們想同時了解通膨的細節以及如何控制通膨。
24:22
talked about the general fool in overall prices so what we have here what we want
那麼，當價格上漲時會有什麼問題？你會希望所有東西的價格都上漲嗎？是的，這基本上就是我所說的。
24:30
to know in a magnetic index I again we want to understand what causes prices to
所以我們想要研究這個問題，我給的這個例子可能會有不同的解釋，但我只是試圖提供更多我們將會關注的經濟結果的例子，
24:38
rise or to fall so really we want to understand this super inflation or deflation we want to understand both
我們也將討論失業率。失業率也是非常重要的一個宏觀指標，
24:45
what are the details of inflection have to keep inflation under control okay so
它能讓你了解特定經濟體的表現狀況。
24:55
what's the problem when the price the prices go up would you like us the price of
我認為在這張圖中通膨率最高的國家，
25:03
everything to go up it's a catchy yeah so this basically that's exactly what I'm saying it out so
如果你使用其中一個統計數據的話，可能是俄羅斯或其他國家，所以你可以看到現在有一個國家正經歷非常高的通膨。
25:10
again so we want to study this and I gave this would be a different interpretation but I'm just trying to
再說一次，所以我們想研究這個，我給了這個會是不同的解釋，但我只是試圖
25:17
give you more examples of economic outcomes that we will be looking at and
給你們更多我們將會關注的經濟結果的例子，而且
25:24
we also will address it in unemployment rate unemployment is again is one of the
我們也將在失業率中討論它，失業率再次是
25:32
very important macro indicator that give
非常重要的宏觀指標，它提供
25:39
you some indication of us how we about the performance of a given a given
你們一些關於特定經濟體表現的指標
25:45
economy so I think that one the the highest inflation rate in this graph I
經濟體，所以我認為在這張圖中，通膨率最高的那一個，我
25:52
think it's either brother Rosie or if you use one of those statutes so you can see now there's a country now where
想是俄羅斯或如果你使用其中一個統計數據，所以你可以看到現在有一個國家
25:59
actually they experiencing really high and if one gets rights
正在經歷非常高的通膨，如果有人弄清楚了
26:04
why that's something we are interested in in magnetics so won't understand this
這就是為什麼我們在磁性領域對此感興趣，所以我們不會理解這一點
26:13
so we will I think it's next lecture when you talk about unemployment we'll talk about how we define employment but
所以我們將，我想在下一堂課當我們討論失業時，我們會討論如何定義就業，但是
26:21
for now so we just the first of all point will show you that if you look at
目前，我們首先會向你們展示，如果你觀察
26:31
or if you active or somebody active looking for work looking for a job and they can do the job but they can't find
或者如果某人積極尋找工作、尋找一份工作，而且他們能勝任這份工作，但他們找不到
26:38
a job as as what we call just very simple definitions are steeped in wine until we come back to these
一份工作，這就是我們所稱的非常簡單的定義，這些定義根植於葡萄酒中，直到我們回到這些
26:48
points so if you don't know much about these indicators you don't have to worry about because this is actually all good
點，所以如果你對這些指標不太了解，你不必擔心，因為這其實都是很好的
26:56
stuff okay so I'm trying to give you here is just you get to give you like a flavor of what we're going to be talking
內容。好的，所以我試圖在這裡給你們的只是讓你們對我們將在
27:02
about in this module so unemployment yes we want to understand why employment has
這個模組中討論的內容有一個初步的了解，所以失業，是的，我們想了解為什麼在某個給定的國家就業率
27:09
been rising in a given country or won't explain instability of the labor market
一直在上升，或者我們想解釋 X 國或 Y 國等勞動市場的不穩定性
27:16
in country X or country Y etc and as I said before these are some some reading when you see the street more if you
如我之前所說，當你看到街頭更多資訊時，這些是一些閱讀材料，如果你
27:24
really interest it to know more about this and whatever I refer you to is something probably very simple to read
真的有興趣了解更多，我推薦給你們的東西可能閱讀起來非常簡單
27:30
so it's not I'm not going to ask you to read 1000 pages probably left what they so I hope you enjoyed that anyway so
所以我不會要求你們閱讀 1000 頁，可能左邊是什麼，所以我希望你們無論如何都很享受
27:47
getting back to what we say so what is macroeconomics microeconomics again the
回到我們所說的，什麼是宏觀經濟學，微觀經濟學再次是
27:55
study of the behavior of these agents or economic agents we learn what economic agents we talking about we talk about
研究這些代理人或經濟代理人的行為，我們學習經濟代理人是什麼，我們談論的是
28:01
households firms the government or the public sector and the world and how they act in the market different markets so
家庭、公司、政府或公共部門以及世界，以及他們如何在不同的市場中行動，所以
28:09
we talk about labor markets or Goods markets for natural markets and then to determine some economic outcome again to
我們談論勞動市場或商品市場，用於自然市場，然後決定一些經濟結果，再次
28:16
give some examples of what economic outcomes but we will be first end by GDP inflation again G lives of the output is
給出一些經濟結果的例子，但我們首先會以 GDP、通貨膨脹再次、GDP 生活水平、產出是
28:25
how much attention reduces and inflation rate is they again we talk about the
產生了多少注意力，通貨膨脹率是，我們再次談論
28:30
general rise of the price level and the unemployment rate we explain what what I mean by
價格水平的普遍上漲，而失業率我們解釋我所說的
28:40
unemployment so in general what we do in macroeconomics or the general methodology here we have four steps
失業是什麼意思。所以一般來說，我們在宏觀經濟學中做什麼，或者這裡的一般方法論有四個步驟
28:48
first we need to look at the data okay so if you're going to be a magnet you
首先我們需要檢視數據，好的，所以如果你未來想成為一位經濟學家，
28:55
know in the future so you probably start with an example you start with some sort of observation so you observe a problem
你可能會從一個例子開始，從某種觀察開始，所以你觀察到一個問題，
29:03
or some sort of issue that you want explained and then you come up with a
或是某個你想要解釋的議題，然後你提出一個
29:10
theory or a model okay so you make assumptions about the behavior of different economic agents involved in
理論或模型，好的，你針對你想要解釋的議題中，
29:20
this issue that you want to explain and then you make some assumptions and we build what we call a model which again
涉及的不同經濟個體的行為做出假設，然後我們建立所謂的模型，這再次
29:29
it's just a simplified representation of the real world so we start from their world you see something you want
只是現實世界的簡化表示，所以我們從現實世界開始，你看到某個你想
29:35
explained and then you think if you try to simplify it to be able to explain it and then if you have a good model or if
解釋的現象，然後你試著簡化它以便能夠解釋，接著如果你有一個好的模型或
29:43
you have a good theory that can explain this then you can use that to either to review the past performance to see if
你有一個好的理論可以解釋這個現象，那麼你就可以用它來回顧過去的表現，看看
29:53
your theory can explain what's happened in the past for example the global financial crisis which we'll talk about
你的理論是否能解釋過去發生的事情，例如我們今天會討論的
30:01
today okay what caused that crisis what
全球金融危機，是什麼導致了那場危機，
30:07
it was that position to happen okay so if you get if you came up with a theory so you've seen something happen so this
是什麼導致它發生，好的，所以如果你提出一個理論，你看到某件事發生，這
30:16
is from the real world I try to make some assumptions I try to explain the relationship between different occasions
是來自現實世界，我嘗試做出一些假設，我嘗試解釋不同事件之間的關係，
30:25
and then I came up with some conclusion scientists a that can't explain this and
然後我得出一些結論，看它是否能解釋這個現象，
30:33
then hopefully then if you have if your theme is good enough then you can actually use update to forecast will
然後希望如果你的理論足夠好，你就可以實際用它來預測或
30:41
protect the future so talk about the future or devaluate different economic policies whether these policies are
預估未來，所以談談未來，或是評估不同的經濟政策，這些政策是否
30:47
useful or not so these are very general steps what we will be talking about mainly here will be interested in here
有用，這些是非常概括的步驟，我們接下來主要會討論的、會感興趣的是
30:56
in macroeconomics as a first-year money we'll be talking mainly about the second step will be talking about the different
宏觀經濟學，作為一年級的課程，我們主要會討論第二步，我們會討論不同的
31:03
macroeconomic knowledge okay so I guess this is more interesting to you at least
宏觀經濟學知識，好的，我想這對你們來說更有趣，至少
31:13
you want to know what you are going to cover and also what topics you going to cover and how you're going to be assist
你們想知道你們會涵蓋什麼內容，還有你們會涵蓋哪些主題，以及你們將如何在
31:22
in this one but before I just move to this point out if you have any question please feel free to interrupt me at any
這門課中得到協助，但在我繼續之前，如果你有任何問題，請隨時打斷我。
31:30
point okay any questions so they take every message
好的，有問題嗎？他們會接收每一條訊息
31:37
what is back details what sort of topics or indicators we will be looking at we
什麼是背景細節？我們將會探討哪些主題或指標？
31:45
will be covering in this one so let's talk a little bit more detail about the model itself what we going to cover what
我們將在本課程中涵蓋哪些內容？讓我們更詳細地談談這個模型本身，我們將涵蓋什麼內容，
31:51
we can actually to cover here in this one so the module includes four parts the first part which we started with
我們在本課程中實際能涵蓋什麼？這個模組包含四個部分，第一部分我們今天已經開始，
31:59
today giving you introducing you to magnetic anomalies and include different
向你們介紹「異常磁力」（Magnetic Anomalies），並包含不同的
32:05
marking indicators which I really mentioned the GDP gross domestic products we want to know what that means
市場指標。我確實提到了 GDP（國內生產總值），我們想知道那是什麼意思，
32:14
how this is calculated or House is measured and again this is just the output okay how much attention produces
它是如何計算或衡量的？再次強調，這只是產出，好的？一個國家生產了多少，
32:23
how are we going to complete that and unemployment rates and inflation so these are sort of the key concepts in
我們將如何完成計算？還有失業率和通貨膨脹。這些是
32:32
macroeconomic or the main McNamee haters and which we will cover in the first part of the model and
總體經濟學中的關鍵概念，或者說是主要的指標，我們將在模型的第一部分涵蓋這些內容，
32:39
we will talk about the short run so any things like for any cleric healthcare
並且我們將討論短期。所以任何像是
32:48
evacuation that's happened in a short three the site within a year so we look at the short run and then the medium run
在短時間內（一年內）發生的事件，我們會關注短期，然後是中期，
32:57
a death Clara so if we split the module into four pieces or four sections so the first one will be what we're covering
等等。所以如果我們將模組分成四個部分，第一部分將是我們現在正在涵蓋的
33:05
now with the key concepts which we will cover today and the next lecture and Friday and then we move to talk about
關鍵概念，我們將在今天和下週五的講座中涵蓋，然後我們接著討論
33:12
the goods market next week and then financial markets etc the medium one
下週的商品市場，然後是金融市場等等。中期部分
33:20
will move to the labor market and its impact on altering or changing the
將轉向勞動力市場及其對改變
33:29
short-run dynamics how this affect the short-run dynamics and the last one of the last lecture will be about long-run
短期動態的影響，這如何影響短期動態？最後一次講座將是關於長期，
33:38
which mainly and what determines economic growth we are interested mainly
這主要涉及是什麼決定了經濟增長？我們主要感興趣的是
33:45
we want to know why can't you X is going faster than country Y or how can extend go faster cetera so we really want to
我們想知道為什麼 X 國的發展比 Y 國快，或者如何能發展得更快等等？我們真的很想
33:55
understand this sort of so these are the
了解這類事情。所以這些就是
34:00
four sections if I do with more details again the first topic is just the introduction which again this is
四個部分。如果我講得更詳細一點，第一個主題只是簡介，同樣地，這是
34:09
something today the goods market is going to the next week then we talk about financial markets they are
今天先講商品市場，下週再討論金融市場，它們是不同的
34:16
different these are different lectures and and then when we combine both so the
這些是不同的課程內容，當我們將兩者結合時
34:24
equilibrium enables markets which just think of this as the is which is the equilibrium limits markets so they will
均衡會讓市場運作，請將此視為均衡限制市場，因此它們會
34:33
invest don't worry about that so when we bring the goods market with the financial
投資，別擔心這點，當我們把商品市場與金融
34:39
market we study what was known as the is and they're models available at basic
市場結合時，我們研究所謂的 IS-LM 模型，這是基礎
34:46
this is again the supply and demand for money and another site in the goosal
這再次涉及貨幣的供需，以及 IS-LM
34:54
model you look at the investment and savings and then we move to the labor
模型中的另一邊，我們看投資與儲蓄，接著我們進入勞動
35:00
market so if you think about what have we it's a living wage okay so it's again
市場，所以如果你想想我們的生活工資，好的，這再次
35:08
just thinking that they as any other good so its price which is the wage
只是將其視為任何其他商品，所以它的價格也就是工資
35:17
depend on the demand and supply so we'll studies through these sort of factors and hair equate wage is
取決於需求與供給，因此我們將研究這些因素，而均衡工資是
35:26
determined in the labor market having to really equilibrium so again between supply and demand is happening in the
在勞動市場中決定的，達到真正的均衡，因此供給與需求之間的互動發生在
35:33
individual market and then we will move to the aggregate demand and I can get supply so we look at the overall picture
個別市場，接著我們將進入總體供給與總體需求，所以我們看整體情況
35:42
and we when we do that will try to evaluate or understand how different
當我們這樣做時，我們會嘗試評估或理解不同的
35:52
policies work so for example in bath time or indecision okay so what should the government do should they speak more
政策如何運作，例如在繁榮時期或衰退時期，好的，政府應該怎麼做？他們應該花更多
36:01
should they spend less should they should they make more tax with this tax so how the physical policy should look
嗎？他們應該花更少嗎？他們應該增稅還是減稅？財政政策應該長什麼樣子
36:09
like and also without assignment what about the monetary policy have the Bank of England the central bank but they
？另外，關於貨幣政策呢？英格蘭銀行或中央銀行應該
36:19
should you should they increase my survival squeeze my supply should increase interest rate will decrease
提高還是降低貨幣供給？應該提高還是降低利率？
36:24
interest rate rate etc so these are two poses that we will try to discuss when
等等，當我們談到這部分時，我們將嘗試討論這兩個
36:31
we come to this point and then the natural rate of unemployment and the Phillips curve so the
政策，接著是自然失業率與菲利普曲線，所以
36:40
between unemployment and inflation and the the next topic will be inflation and
失業與通膨之間的關係，下一個主題將是通膨與
36:49
money growth and finally economic growth and its determine determining factors so these are all the topics that we cover
貨幣成長以及最終的經濟成長及其決定因素，這些都是我們涵蓋的主題
36:58
in this one okay any questions that
在這門課中，好的，有任何問題嗎？
37:08
means you have questions any questions okay so teaching and assessment okay so
這表示你有問題，有任何問題嗎？好的，那麼教學與評量，好的
37:17
we have three lectures per week so we have two lectures this is this is the first and then we have another lecture
我們每週有三堂課，所以我們有兩堂課，這是第一堂，然後我們還有另一堂課
37:25
today so I have two lectures on Monday and one lecture on Friday you have one
今天，所以我週一有兩堂課，週五有一堂課，你們每週有一堂
37:32
tutorial a week so please check your turntable and and the lectures would run from week one to week 11 and the
習題課，所以請查看你們的課表，而課程將從第一週進行到第十一週，而
37:41
tutorials will run from week three two weeks n so that means no tutorials this week no tutorials next week tutorial
習題課將從第三週進行到第十二週，這表示這週沒有習題課，下週也沒有習題課，習題課
37:50
starts the week after that you okay we find is really weak so the video of two
會在那之後的一週開始，你們 okay 嗎？我們發現真的很弱，兩年前的影片
37:57
years no matter okay the assessment two parts the first part is in class test
無所謂，好的，評量有兩部分，第一部分是課堂測驗
38:06
which is going to be in week six again it's going to be in week sets so you
將在第六週進行，一樣，它將在第六週進行，所以你們
38:14
have week 6 you have tests in classes you took about this lecture but just will never know that you should know
在第六週有測驗，在課堂上進行，關於這個講座，但永遠不知道你們應該知道
38:21
that you have in class test in week six and that will take place on Friday the same time as a lecture so please stop
你們在第六週有課堂測驗，將在週五同一時間進行，所以請停下來
38:29
like please remember to come I'll remind you but on that they should arrive at his teammates area because it's an exam
請記得要來，我會提醒你們，但那天他們應該抵達他的隊友區域，因為這是一場考試
38:36
okay so that will be in week six and then in addition a lot is 20% of the
好的，那將在第六週，另外，很多佔總分的 20%
38:43
over month and this very exact which you take place dude that's kind of site type questions
這非常精確，你會在那裡進行，那是某種現場類型的問題
38:50
that we 80% and be two hours example okay communication feedback so I come up
我們 80% 以及一個兩小時的範例，好的，溝通回饋，所以我提出
39:06
and hope you do an Aussie so which means if you see me anywhere just kind of loosely a question comes up that's right
希望你做一個澳洲人，所以這表示如果你在任何地方看到我，只是隨意問個問題，那就對了
39:13
so if you of course you can come to my room design if I'm there that's fine if you see me somebody around you just
所以如果你當然你可以來我的房間設計，如果我在那裡，那沒問題，如果你看到我，某人在你附近，你只是
39:21
haven't talked to me if you have any questions so I don't have a problem with you so get on to me if I'm too busy
還沒跟我說話，如果你有任何問題，所以我對你沒問題，所以如果我太忙了就來找我
39:26
okay I'll save you I expect you to accept ups okay but generally I should be I'm very happy
好的，我會救你，我期望你接受 ups，好的，但一般來說，我應該是，我非常樂意
39:34
to chat inside so if you have any questions about teaching about assessment about anything residents will
如果您有任何關於教學、評估或其他任何問題，居民們
39:40
you please please come and talk to me if you don't want to overview if you if you can't come to the the office all of you
請務必來找我談談，如果您不想概述，如果您如果您無法到辦公室來，你們所有人
39:50
just just email me this is my email address and also this is my home number this is where I should be and I will be
只要寄電子郵件給我就好，這是我的電子郵件地址，還有這是我的家用電話，這是我的所在之處，而我會
39:57
there only during the office hours okay because this is not my office so I'll be there only during the office hours okay
只在辦公時間在那裡，好的，因為這不是我的辦公室，所以我只會在辦公時間在那裡，好的
40:05
but from time so I'll try to be there as long as I can but generally it's only the office hours and that's why I said
但從時間來看，我會盡量在那裡待久一點，但通常只限於辦公時間，這就是為什麼我說
40:11
if you meet me around just stop me and talk to me that's fine absolutely fine with that
如果你在附近遇到我，直接攔住我跟我聊聊，沒問題，絕對沒問題
40:15
okay so I'll do this I'm from Pearson I'll just type up the top one of your core textbook and which is the
好的，我會這樣做，我來自 Pearson，我會直接打上你們其中一本核心教科書的書名，也就是
40:25
macroeconomics text by Blanchard now this your second years aren't you first years Oh fabulous and so if you're
Blanchard 的總體經濟學教材，你們是大二生，對吧？不是大一？哦，太好了，所以如果你們
40:34
gonna find the book you kind of buying it and obviously can get it wrap you light and you sell at Amazon or stones
要找這本書，你們可能會買它，顯然可以在 Amazon 或 Stones
40:39
or labor but you have a Blackwell store and campuses everyone know where that is yeah it's just the other side the
或 Labor 買到，但你們有 Blackwell 書店和校園店，大家都知道在哪裡，對吧？就在奧地利工會的另一邊
40:46
Austrian union just a slide towards that theater it's next door and so if you are going to buy it please do utilize your
往那邊走一點到劇院，就在隔壁，所以如果你們要買，請善用你們的
40:52
pants bookshop because there's not many yet in England so thriller earthwork in UK
大學書店，因為在英格蘭還不多，所以英國的 Thriller Earthwork
40:57
so you'd really like to yeah so yeah the prices as standard is sixty
所以你們真的會喜歡，是的，標準價格是六十
41:03
to ninety nine this is the first public book prices get bitter expensive guide to the standard prices sixty to ninety
到九十九，這是第一本公開書籍的價格，標準價格是六十到九十
41:13
nine but on Amazon at the moment it is 53 pounds and that was always my smash that if you just go into the store and
九，但在 Amazon 上目前是 53 英鎊，這總是讓我印象深刻，如果你直接去校園的店裡
41:23
campus and just they've already done it takes a bit of but you can double-check as well and Amazon before you can get it
他們可能已經有貨了，但你可以再確認一下，也可以在 Amazon 上比價，然後再決定去那裡買
41:28
there and you can obviously if I'm not going to make you buy me but you don't want to
你們可以顯然地，我不會強迫你們買，但如果你們不想
41:34
that it's fine important policy chain Duke leads to the newest addition I won't pretend I understand it but
也沒關係，重要的政策改變導致了最新版本，我不會假裝我懂，但
41:39
somebody should be Ras Ln model so it's quite important you buy the newest addition just because that's effective
應該有人提到了 Ras Ln 模型，所以買最新版本很重要，因為那是有效的
41:45
or not the brass but yes I'm also going to give away a free book today save some 160 pounds so if you'd like to take part
不是 Brass，但沒錯，我今天也要送出一本免費的書，省下約 160 英鎊，如果你們想參加的話
41:54
I'm gonna weigh in the corner at the end and give up these doggy tickets so the bottom of the tickets that will have a
我會在角落稱重，然後交出這些彩券，彩券底部會有一個
41:59
number and then the winning book will be in the bookshop and I have the number in it so ask any of the staff and make sure
號碼，中獎的彩券會在彩券店裡，而我手上有號碼，所以請問任何一位工作人員，並確保
42:05
your ticket not only if you want and we give it to you there okay guys Jackson that's all today
您的彩券，如果您想要的話，我們會在那裡給您，好了各位 Jackson，今天就到此為止
42:14
that's over this lecture you got any question please email me or I'll see you at 4:00 well thank you so much
今天的演講到此結束，如果您有任何問題，請發電子郵件給我，或者我們下午四點見，非常感謝
42:28
and the first part of the lecture we started with what is macroeconomics so
在演講的第一部分，我們從什麼是總體經濟學開始，所以
42:36
macroeconomics we said macro means large macro economics is the study of the
總體經濟學，我們說過 macro 代表大型，總體經濟學是研究
42:42
behavior of economic agents how this agent how these agents interact in the
經濟個體行為的學問，這些個體如何在
42:51
market so when we discuss economic agents we said we are interested not in
市場中互動，所以當我們討論經濟個體時，我們說我們感興趣的不是
43:00
an individual or a single firm we talk
個人或單一公司，我們討論
43:07
about households we talk about businesses or the business sector or
家庭，我們討論企業或企業部門或
43:14
firms we also interested in the public sector or the government and the
公司，我們也對公共部門或政府以及
43:23
monetary authorities and the rest of the world so I started talking about the I'm
貨幣當局和世界其他地區感興趣，所以我開始談論，我
43:33
not going to repeat myself again so I'm just going to jump to the where I
不會再重複了，所以我直接跳到我
43:37
stopped we highlighted the topics that
停下的地方，我們強調了本學期將涵蓋的
43:44
will recover in this semester and as I said we have three lectures this is our
主題，正如我所說，我們有三堂課，這是我們今天
43:53
second lecture today so two lectures Monday one lecture on Friday one tutorial we know about the assessment
的第二堂課，所以週一兩堂課，週五一堂課，一個輔導課，我們知道關於評量
43:59
now you can contact me anytime and yeah
現在您可以隨時聯絡我，是的
44:05
this is one important thing so what I want to say here is that we will be
這是一件重要的事，所以我想在這裡說明的是，我們將會
44:13
using math so diagrams and some algebra
使用數學，所以圖表和一些代數
44:18
so attending the lecture just listening to me going through these points might
所以參加演講，只是聽我講解這些要點可能
44:27
not be enough so you need to practice by yourself I'm very happy to provide some
所以你需要自己練習，我很樂意提供一些
44:35
additional material and resources and such as that short videos to go through
額外的材料和資源，例如一些短影片，來複習
44:42
some very basic techniques things that you you will need in order to understand
一些非常基礎的技巧，這些是你為了理解
44:49
and to follow my lecture so if you feel yourself struggling or there's something
並跟上我的課程所必須具備的知識。所以如果你覺得自己很吃力，或是有什麼
44:56
that you're not very sure about just let me know and I'm very happy to help okay so this is outside the lecture as well
你不確定的地方，請告訴我，我很樂意幫忙。好的，這是在課程之外也可以的
45:03
so not just in the lecture of course in the lecture please stop me at any time drop me don't worry at all if you have
所以不只限於課堂上，當然在課堂上也請隨時打断我，完全不用擔心，如果你有
45:12
any question please ask me and don't ask the person next to you just ask me okay
任何問題請問我，不要問旁邊的人，直接問我，好嗎？
45:18
so as I said so these videos I will I'll post them every week on dynamics but that would that depends on what you
所以如我所說，這些關於動態的影片我會每週上傳，但這取決於你們
45:27
really need what you want to have so I don't have something specific in my mind but we can start with some basics if you
真正需要什麼、想要什麼，所以我心裡沒有具體的計畫，但如果你們需要，我們可以從一些基礎開始。
45:35
need to regarding the textbook just before I
關於教科書，趁我還沒忘記
45:41
forget so if you there's a free copy in the university bookshop so if you're
說一下，如果你們在大學書店有一本免費的副本，如果你們
45:49
having taken one of these tickets you can take one after the lecture there's also one more thing I want to say about
拿了其中一張票券，可以在下課後去拿一本。還有一件事我想說的是
45:58
the textbook I know it's it's expensive so I'm sure there will be copies in the library so that means you don't really
關於教科書，我知道它很貴，所以我確定圖書館會有副本，這意味著你們其實
46:07
have to buy it you buy it only if you if you want a copy to be with you at home or you want to keep it for long buy in
不需要買，除非你們
46:16
general I'm sure there will be copies in the library and also there is an alternative here Mac new book so if for
想要一本放在家裡，或是想長期保留才買。一般來說，我確定圖書館會有副本，另外這裡還有一本替代書，Mac new book。所以如果
46:25
any reason or if you will go to the library and you can't find the book just you can use the other one okay so it's
出於任何原因，如果你去圖書館找不到那本書，你可以用另一本，好嗎？所以
46:34
not so you don't have to buy it but if you buy it that's fine and we'll ask you not to buy the book I'm saying it's it's
你們不必買，但如果買了也沒關係，但我建議不要買書，我是說這真的
46:42
really up to you so don't feel like you have to buy the book but it's it's good too you will need the book you know in
取決於你們自己，所以不用覺得一定要買書，但有書是好的，你們會需要這本書，你知道的，
46:51
any case if not this book the other one Mac new book will be fine so if you can find
無論如何，如果不是這本書，另一本 Mac new book 也可以。所以如果你能找到
46:58
the core book the core textbook then you just find the other one okay so as I
核心書籍、核心教科書，那你就去找另一本，好嗎？所以當我
47:07
said today so if we really know now all familiar with what topics we're going to cover in macroeconomics we try to give a
今天說，如果我們現在真的了解，大家都熟悉宏觀經濟學要涵蓋哪些主題，我們試圖給出
47:15
very simple and brief definition of what we mean by macroeconomics and watch we should expect when we study
一個非常簡單且簡潔的定義，說明我們所說的宏觀經濟學是什麼，以及我們在學習宏觀經濟學時應該期待什麼
47:21
macroeconomics I thought to finish off this part of this introduction by just
我想為了結束這部分的導論，只需
47:27
going through some - like in a tool of the world where we talk about some major
看一下現實世界中的例子，我們談論一些重大
47:36
event like the global financial crisis which took place 2007 and 2008 started
事件，像是發生在 2007 年和 2008 年的全球金融危機，始於
47:44
in the US and tend to become it became global crisis and then maybe we can look
美國並傾向於演變成全球危機，然後也許我們可以看看
47:51
at the few of those big economies in in the world like the US economy is the
世界上幾個大型經濟體，像是美國經濟是世界上
48:00
largest economy in the world what we're going to do is just we're going to have a look at the main indicators like GDP
最大的經濟體，我們要做的是看看主要指標，如 GDP
48:08
growth inflation and employment and employment rate all this the macro indicators that we already discussed
成長率、通貨膨脹和就業及失業率，所有這些宏觀指標我們已經在
48:17
very briefly in the first part of today's lecture and as I said if you not
今天講座的第一部分非常簡要地討論過了，正如我所說，如果你不
48:25
sure of you don't really understand much of these indicators don't worry because this is something we will go through in
確定或不太了解這些指標，別擔心，因為這是我們將會詳細
48:33
detail so as I said we start with the a major event like the global financial
講解的內容，所以正如我所說，我們從一個重大事件開始，像是全球金融
48:39
crisis if you look at this graph which shows the GDP again we we agree that GDP
危機，如果你看這張顯示 GDP 的圖表，我們都同意 GDP
48:48
is just the aggregate output or the total output so how much I can't reproduces but in this case you are
只是總產出或總產量，也就是一個國家能生產多少，但在這個案例中，你
48:56
looking at the world GDP so the world output growth between 2000 and 2009 teen
看的是世界 GDP，也就是 2000 年到 2009 年間的世界產出成長
49:04
and if you if you look between 2000 and up to 2007 there was a kind of
如果你看 2000 年到 2007 年之間，有一種
49:12
upward trend so they sustained expansion
上升趨勢，所以這段期間有持續的擴張
49:19
from 2000 and 2007 however in 2007 housing prices in the u.s.
從 2000 年到 2007 年，然而在 2007 年，美國的房地產價格
49:31
started lining and that led to a major economic and a major financial crisis worldwide
開始下跌，這導致了全球範圍內一場重大的經濟和金融危機
49:37
not just in the in the u.s.
不僅僅是在美國。
49:42
obvious in the US the GDP growth become negative so it was falling it was declining so the
在美國很明顯，GDP增長變成負值，所以它在下降，它在衰退，因此
49:48
economy wasn't expanding was actually shrinking was going negative or it witnessed negative growth rate and that
經濟沒有擴張，實際上是在萎縮，走向負值，或者說它出現了負增長率，而這
49:55
started 2008 quarter three so the third quarter in 2008 and continued to be
始於2008年第三季度，也就是2008年的第三季，並且持續
50:01
negative through 2009 and of course because the u.s.
負增長直到2009年，當然因為美國
50:09
as I said a few seconds ago the u.s.
正如我幾秒鐘前說的，美國
50:12
is the largest economy in terms of the size okay in the world
是世界上規模最大的經濟體
50:18
obviously they have links with almost every country in the world so these links so countries usually are
顯然他們與世界上幾乎每個國家都有聯繫，所以這些聯繫，國家通常
50:27
linked together through international trade so exports and imports or through
是通過國際貿易聯繫在一起的，所以是出口和進口，或者通過
50:35
financial links so these two channels or these two types of links where actually
金融聯繫，所以這兩個管道或這兩種類型的聯繫，實際上
50:43
caused that the crisis that happened in the US or the shock that's happened in
導致了發生在美國的危機，或者發生在美國的衝擊
50:52
the u.s. became a global crisis so basically it affected other countries in the world and where you can't see in
變成了一場全球危機，所以基本上它影響了世界上的其他國家，而在這張圖中你可以看到
51:02
this graph looking at the wallet GDP growth you see that big like this steep
看全球GDP增長，你看到那裡有一個像這樣陡峭的
51:10
dip down there so it became negative so it's below
下滑，所以它變成負值，低於
51:15
zero and if I look at advancing economies which is the red line you will
零，如果我先看先進經濟體，也就是紅線，你會
51:24
see how bad it was was like below minus
看到情況有多糟，增長率低於負
51:29
two percent growth rate okay so that
2% 左右
51:35
explained how how big the problem was in
這解釋了2006、2007和2008年的問題有多嚴重
51:42
2006 2007 and 2008 and that affected not just the US economy but also advanced
這不僅影響了美國經濟，也影響了先進
51:52
economies if you look at emerging economies they were growing as well from
經濟體，如果你看新興經濟體，它們也在增長，從
52:01
2000 to 2007 but then in 2007 they haven't seen negative growth right but the growth
2000年到2007年，但在2007年，它們還沒有看到負增長，對吧？但是增長
52:11
economic growth in these countries slowed down a lot - compared to how it was before that so he still it's very
這些國家的經濟成長相比過去大幅放緩 - 所以到了2008年底，全世界各國如何受到全球危機的影響仍然非常顯而易見
52:19
very obvious by the end of 2008 how all
非常明顯
52:25
countries in the world suffer from the global crisis so what we're looking at
我們在此觀察的是GDP成長率，再次提醒，宏觀（macro）意指大規模，所以我們看的是
52:35
here is GDP growth rate and again remember macro means large so we look at
整體大局，我們想從中學習的是理解GDP的重要性，首先
52:42
the big picture so what we want to learn from this is the importance of understanding how what is GDP first
全球抱歉，國內生產毛額（GDP）如何衡量，然後我們能從中得到什麼
52:51
global sorry the gross domestic product how to measure it and then what
指標，我們能對成長率得出什麼結論，所以
53:00
indication we can have what conclusion we can they build on the growth right so
這只是一個例子，說明你可以如何運用其中一個宏觀指標，你
53:08
this is just an example of how you can one of the macro indicators which you
可以追蹤的宏觀指標，這裡再舉一個例子，同樣是為了展示危機有多嚴重，這張圖表向你展示了三個不同國家組別的股票
53:15
can follow another example here again just to show the crisis how how bad it was this this graph show you the stock
價格：新興經濟體、歐元區以及
53:24
prices in three different groups of countries emerging economies and in the euro area in addition to the
美國，你再次看到2008年到2009年間
53:34
United States again you see how what's happened to stock prices between 2008
股價發生了什麼事，股價下跌，我們也看到許多已開發經濟體的
53:43
and 2009 so stock prices was falling as we're falling as well so we have GDP growth negative in in many countries
GDP成長率為負值，而多數新興經濟體則是正值，但仍遠低於
53:53
many advanced economies and it was positive in in in most emerging economies but still was much lower than
2007年的水準，所以再次強調，這是我們將感興趣的指標之一，也就是GDP和
54:03
how it was in 2007 so again this is one of the indicators that GDP and GDP
GDP成長率，當我們前進美國或觀察
54:09
growth that we will be interested in moving at the United States or looking
美國時，如我所說，作為世界最大的經濟體，它生產了
54:17
at the United States as a as I said the largest economy in the world it produces
近全球23%的產出，這向你解釋了它的規模有多大，那個
54:24
nearly 23% of the world output and that explain to you how large it is how big
經濟體有多麼龐大，所以當然我們之前說過，較高的GDP意味著可能與較高的
54:32
that economy is so of course they we said before higher GDP means who is likely to be associated with higher
收入相關聯，而較高的收入意味著較高的生活水準，這在美國
54:42
income and higher income means higher standard of living so that's exactly the case in in the States in the United
的情況正是如此，所以如果你更仔細地觀察美國或美國人
54:50
States so if you look more closely at how the United States or the American
所以如果你更仔細地觀察美國或美國人
54:59
economy perform it during the crisis before and during the crisis and after the crisis so as we said that three main
經濟在危機前、危機期間以及危機後的表現，如我們所說，我們在此關注三個主要指標
55:08
indicators we we look at here the output growth right so the GDP growth right the inflation rate and the unemployment rate
分別是產出增長率，也就是GDP增長率、通膨率以及失業率
55:18
so before the crisis
在危機之前
55:21
so 1990 to 2007 growth rate was 3% inflation rate five point sorry the
1990年至2007年，增長率為3%，通膨率為5%，抱歉
55:32
unemployment rate five point four inflation rate two point three then falling from 3% to minus
失業率為5.4%，通膨率為2.3%，然後增長率從3%下降至負
55:42
one point five that's due sis as during the shock and unemployment increased to
1.5%，這是因為危機的衝擊，失業率上升至
55:50
seven point five and actually in 2010 to 2014 you will see that in the time that
7.5%，而在2010年至2014年期間你會看到，當
56:00
growth GDP growth recovered from the shock from this crisis it became to two
GDP增長率從危機的衝擊中恢復時，它達到了
56:07
point two percent however if you compare this with the unemployment and employment actually increase from seven
2.2%，然而，如果你將此與失業率相比，失業率實際上從7.5%
56:15
point five to eight percent so that give you an indication that usually an employment rate or employment takes
上升至8%，這給你一個提示，通常失業率或就業的恢復
56:24
longer to recover from a recession or from a shock or from a crisis compared
需要更長的時間才能從衰退、衝擊或危機中恢復
56:30
to the the GDB so but then it improved after that so if you if you look at 2015
相較於GDP的恢復，但之後它有所改善，所以如果你看2015年
56:37
so it seems in a in a much better shape compared to how it was in 2007 so this
它似乎比2007年的狀況好得多，這
56:46
is the the main the three main indicators that we discussed in the
是我們在上一堂課討論的三個主要指標，我想在此補充的是貨幣政策，聯準會或
56:52
previous lecture what I want to add here is the monetary policy what the Fed or
聯邦準備理事會，也就是美國的中央銀行，在衝擊或衰退期間試圖做什麼
57:01
the Federal Reserve or the central bank the American central bank tried to do during the shot or during the recession
他們試圖降低利率
57:07
they tried to lower the interest rate
這被稱為聯邦基金利率，所以
57:11
which is called the Fed Funds rate so
你可以看到利率很低，到2008年12月
57:17
you can see the interest rate was low it became nearly zero percent by 2000 by
幾乎變為零，所以他們試圖提振經濟，試圖通過降低利率將經濟推出衰退
57:26
December 2008 so they try to boost the economy try to push the economy out of recession by lowering they interest rate
2008年12月，利率幾乎降至零，因此他們試圖提振經濟，試圖通過降低利率將經濟推出衰退
57:34
and this is something we will learn about in this module how basically have
這正是我們將在本模組中學習的內容，關於央行如何管理或實施貨幣政策。
57:40
the central bank manage or implement the monetary policy so one of the ways to do
其中一種做法，也正是在 2008 年危機期間發生的情況，就是央行——聯準會（Fed），
57:49
this which exactly what happened during the crisis in eight the central bank the Fed the
即美國的中央銀行——調降了利率，實際上降至接近零的水準。
57:58
Federal Reserve will descend American Central Bank they lower their interest rate and actually it became nearly zero
為什麼他們不能將利率降至零以下，也就是負利率呢？
58:06
so why couldn't they go below that below
這被稱為「零利率下限」（Zero Lower Bound），你無法突破這個限制，
58:11
zero percent obviously there's this is called a zero lower band so you can't go
因為你有兩種選擇：持有現金或持有債券。
58:20
below that because if you have two choices to hold cash or to hold bonds
基本上，現金具有流動性，你可以隨時使用；而債券的流動性不如現金，
58:29
so basically cash is liquid so you can use it anytime that bonds is not as liquid as cash and also but bonds give
但債券會提供一定的回報。
58:39
you some return so the idea here is that if this interest rate became negative then everyone with basically hold cash
這裡的概念是，如果利率變成負數，那麼所有人都會傾向持有現金而非債券，
58:48
rather than bonds and that wouldn't really help so but what is the problem
這將無法達到刺激經濟的效果。那麼，問題在哪裡呢？
58:56
then if the interest rate is very low nearly zero again we will talk about
如果利率非常低，接近零，我們稍後在討論貨幣政策時會更詳細說明，
59:05
this in more detail when we discuss monetary policy but for now the main problem here when we have low very low
但目前主要的問題是，當利率非常低時，
59:15
interest rates that limit the central bank ability to intervene again so if there is a recession and if there is a
會限制央行再次干預市場的能力。
59:25
another shook they can't actually do much about it because it's already zero so they can't go below that so basically
如果出現衰退或另一波衝擊，他們實際上無能為力，因為利率已經是零，無法再往下調降。
59:33
it limit the ability to respond to father negative shocks second actually it became or it may lead to excessive
這基本上限制了應對未來負面衝擊的能力。其次，這可能導致投資者過度承擔風險，
59:42
risk-taking by investors because it's very cheap to borrow okay if interest rate well interest rate for invested
因為借貸成本非常低廉。
59:51
investors or Brewers it's a cost so if the cost of borrowing is nearly zero you could actually that would may encourage
對投資者或借款人來說，利率就是借貸成本。如果借貸成本接近零，
1:00:00
you to to borrow more money because it's very cheap to borrow money okay regardless of whether you can really pay
可能會鼓勵你借更多的錢，因為借錢非常便宜，
1:00:09
this money back or not so that is the idea of having a very low interest rate may lead to excessive risk-taking by
無論你是否真的能償還這筆錢。
1:00:17
investors and and this one of the issues of having low interest rate anyway so
這就是利率過低可能導致投資者過度承擔風險的概念，也是低利率帶來的問題之一。
1:00:26
one final indicator which I want to refer to here
我想在此提到的最後一個指標
1:00:33
is productivity growth so productivity is very important concept is very
是生產力增長。生產力是非常重要的概念，是非常
1:00:41
important indicator that tell us much about how an economy is growing and how
重要的指標，能告訴我們許多關於經濟如何增長以及
1:00:48
the income per person is increasing so if you look at this these figures in in
每人收入如何增加的資訊。所以如果你看看美國的這些數字
1:00:57
the US you will see that the productivity growth has slowed down and
你會發現生產力增長已經放緩，
1:01:06
again this is something to worry about because this effect income per person and that means it might even hit the
這再次是令人擔憂的事情，因為這影響每人收入，這意味著它甚至可能對
1:01:15
poorest harder so so this is the the first block or the largest economy in
最貧困的人造成更嚴重的打擊。以上是世界第一大經濟體的情況。如果我們將其與歐洲地區比較，我們有28個歐洲國家在1999年
1:01:23
the world if we compare this to the European area we have 28 European countries with a common market in 1999
組成了一個共同市場，
1:01:33
they form it a common currency area use the euro which replace their national
他們建立了一個共同貨幣區，使用歐元取代了他們的國家
1:01:41
currencies so this area faces two main issues first is unemployment second is
貨幣。所以這個地區面臨兩個主要問題：第一是失業，第二是
1:01:50
how to function as a common how to function efficiently as a common
如何作為一個共同體運作，如何作為一個共同
1:01:56
currency area so regarding the first point which is they again if you look at the same set of indicators including
貨幣區有效運作。關於第一點，如果你看看同樣的一組指標，包括
1:02:06
unemployment you will see here that in 2000 after 2008 2009 for example
失業率，你會在這裡看到，在2000年，2008、2009年之後，例如
1:02:15
unemployment went up from 9 point 4
失業率從9.4%上升到
1:02:21
11.1 so in the time that the US economy
11.1%。在美國經濟
1:02:28
where the shock started where the rescission or the financial crisis started recovered by 2015 if you look at
的衝擊開始、衰退或金融危機開始後，到2015年已經復甦。如果你看看
1:02:37
the growth rate in the European area you'll see that it's point seven on
歐洲地區的增長率，你會發現在2010年到2020年、2014年到2010年以及
1:02:42
average between 2010 2020 2014 2010 and
2014年和2015年之間，平均是0.7%，
1:02:51
2014 and 2015 it was one point five compare which is less than two point one
與危機前的2.1%相比，2015年是1.5%。但當你同時觀察失業率時，你會發現它表現也不佳，因為它
1:02:57
before the crisis but when you look at the unemployment rate as well you see again it's not doing great because it's
與危機前的2.1%相比，2015年是1.5%。但當你同時觀察失業率時，你會發現它表現也不佳，因為它
1:03:07
it's actually above the level they're at before the before the crisis so the
它實際上高於危機前的水平，所以
1:03:16
problem here is that the average here is eleven point one so what you see here is
這裡的問題是，平均值是十一點一，所以你在這裡看到的是
1:03:22
an average and the same way I asked you to be careful when you explain the GDP
一個平均值，就像我之前要求你在解釋人均 GDP
1:03:28
per capita as an indicator of the standard of living again I want you to
作為生活水平指標時要小心一樣，我再次希望你
1:03:36
be careful when we when when you deal with average numbers because average sometimes mask the deeper problems so
在處理平均數時要小心，因為平均數有時會掩蓋更深層的問題，所以
1:03:46
for example here when you look at the average in the euro area the average unemployment rate is 11% this is an
例如在這裡，當你看歐元區的平均值時，平均失業率是 11%，這是一個
1:03:54
average what does that mean it means that there are some countries way below 11% so unemployment rate is way below
平均值，這是什麼意思呢？這意味著有些國家遠低於 11%，所以失業率遠低於
1:04:03
11% which is great you don't want really high unemployment rate but on the other side there will be countries that's way
11%，這很棒，你不希望失業率太高，但另一方面，會有一些國家遠
1:04:10
above 11% so live in person is just an average okay so for example here if you look at Spain the unemployment rates 23%
高於 11%，所以平均值只是一個數字，好吧。所以例如在這裡，如果你看西班牙，失業率是 23%
1:04:20
it's a very shocking and high unemployment rate and much of this is
這是一個非常驚人且很高的失業率，而這其中很大一部分
1:04:28
attributed to the crisis or to the global financial crisis however before that unemployment rate was high
歸因於危機或全球金融危機，然而在那之前，失業率在西班牙
1:04:36
in Spain so that tell us more about the the issue this is the unemployment rate in Spain so you see it's been almost
就已經很高了，這讓我們更了解這個問題。這是西班牙的失業率，所以你看它幾乎一直
1:04:46
high even even before before the crisis okay so the idea here well it could be
很高，甚至在危機之前也是如此，好吧。所以這裡的想法是，嗯，這可能
1:04:54
something to do with labour markets that's why we will study labour markets and as I said this probably would be one
與勞動市場有關，這就是為什麼我們將研究勞動市場，正如我所說，這可能需要
1:05:04
one lecture or more so it could be like a week so we'll see how how we we get on with the material but in general what
一堂課或更多，所以可能像一週的時間，我們會看進度如何，但總的來說，我
1:05:13
I'm saying here is that labor markets very important section in the economy that we will recover but as an example
在這裡想說的是，勞動市場是經濟中非常重要的一個部分，我們將會探討，但作為一個例子，
1:05:22
here we need to understand we would like to understand why an employment rate the unemployment rate in Spain has been
在這裡我們需要理解，我們希望理解為什麼西班牙的失業率
1:05:32
really high even before the crisis and I know it's it looks worse after the crisis but still that that means there's
在危機前就真的很高，我知道危機後看起來更糟，但這仍然意味著
1:05:40
something related to really how the labor market in Spain function so this is something we want to understand many
有些事情與西班牙勞動市場實際的運作方式有關，所以這是我們想了解的。許多
1:05:49
economists believe that it's more about labor market rigidities mean meaning that the labor market is not flexible
經濟學家認為，這更多是關於勞動市場的僵化，意思是勞動市場不夠靈活。
1:05:57
and that has to do with the regulation and the protection of workers so some
這與法規和勞工保護有關，因此有些人認為在西班牙，勞工受到過度保護，這就是為什麼企業
1:06:07
people believe that in Spain workers are too much protected and that's why firms
或公司對於雇用新員工變得猶豫不決，或者
1:06:13
or businesses become hesitant to or
不願意雇用新員工，因為要解僱他們並不容易，存在許多問題，他們受到的保護過多。
1:06:17
reluctant to hire new workers so it's not easy to fire them there's so many problems they have too much protection
好的，這就是為什麼他們的公司沒有真正
1:06:27
okay that's why their firms don't really
雇用足夠的員工，所以當我們討論勞動市場時，會詳細討論這一點，但現在我們至少
1:06:32
hire enough workers so this is something we'll talk about in detail when we discuss labor markets but for now we at
要理解這一點，我們也會討論雇用率，所以目前我們理解到，如果你想了解
1:06:40
least for understand and we will talk about an appointment rate as well so for now we understand that this is something
特定地區或國家的經濟表現，監控這一點是很重要的。
1:06:47
important to monitor if you want to understand the economic performance in a certain in a given region or a country
當然，總是有人支持或反對
1:06:56
so of course there are always people who
成為像歐洲這樣的經濟集團的一員，
1:07:02
with or against the having or being part of an economic bloc like the European
所以支持者顯然會說，既然我們使用歐元，
1:07:11
area so obviously supporters would say okay since we have they deal with the
就沒有匯率問題，你對此更有把握。
1:07:20
euro then there's no exchange rate see there's more you're more certain about
所以如果你是商人，或者你的公司在一個國家營運，現在要跨國移動，
1:07:27
so if you if you if you a businessman or if your firm operating in one country and just moving across countries now
在集團內部會容易得多，你不必擔心匯率或處理不同的
1:07:35
within the block is much easier now you don't have you don't have to worry about exchange rate or dealing with different
貨幣，你實際上是在使用歐元，好的，這可能是一個優勢。
1:07:42
kinds you're actually dealing with the euro okay so that could be one advantage
所以身處歐元區內，
1:07:47
so being we within the euro area and
並且成為一個大型經濟體也很
1:07:53
also becoming a large economic power is
重要，好的，因為如果你把歐元區視為單一國家，你會發現它們
1:08:00
important too okay because if you look at the euro area as single countries properly you'll see okay so they're not
不會像整個集團那樣強大，所以這個概念就是成為
1:08:07
going to be as powerful as the the block the entire block so that is the idea being part of a
大型經濟體的一部分，這帶來了一些優勢，但另一方面，成為其中一員也有缺點。
1:08:15
large economic power that comes with some advantages well but on the other side there are drawbacks of being a part
大型經濟體的一部分，這帶來了一些優勢，但另一方面，成為其中一員也有缺點
1:08:25
of the euro area one of which is that you don't have control over your monetary policies in your country okay
歐元區的其中一個問題是，你的國家無法掌控自己的貨幣政策
1:08:31
so you don't really having a common monetary policy across all countries is
所以你並沒有真正擁有共同的貨幣政策
1:08:40
something make it difficult for those countries that let's say if Spain want to boost their economies they want to
這讓那些國家陷入困境，比如說如果西班牙想要提振經濟
1:08:49
deal with unemployment rate our high unemployment okay so if they want to
想要解決失業率問題，我們的高失業率
1:08:55
deal with that using the monetary policy tools they can't they don't have control over
如果他們想用貨幣政策工具來處理
1:09:02
monetary policy they part of the euro area so they can't do that they no longer have control over that okay so
他們做不到，他們無法掌控貨幣政策，他們是歐元區的一份子
1:09:10
the idea here is that having a common monetary policy for all countries it's
所以他們做不到，他們不再擁有掌控權
1:09:17
like one size fits all which doesn't exist it doesn't work okay and that is that is one of the problems obviously
這裡的想法是，對所有國家實施共同的貨幣政策
1:09:26
when you have your exchange rate your currency the exchange rate itself could
就像一刀切，這並不存在，也行不通
1:09:33
be used as adjusting mechanism okay and this is something again we will discuss when we talk about monetary policy but
這顯然是問題之一
1:09:40
being part of the euro area it doesn't
當你擁有匯率、你的貨幣時，匯率本身
1:09:48
give you that okay so you can't do that so you don't you don't have this advantage of having the the chance to
可以作為調整機制
1:09:57
adjust to shocks through the changes in your exchange rate because there is no exchange rate you're actually using
這點我們稍後討論貨幣政策時會再談到
1:10:06
there's a common punish monetary policy and there's only a single currency as
但身為歐元區的一份子，你沒有這個優勢
1:10:11
well the the euro so this is the the second block so the euro area so we took
你無法透過調整匯率來因應衝擊
1:10:21
we talked about the u.s.
因為根本沒有匯率，你實際上使用的是
1:10:23
we start with the crisis obviously because this is one of of the major events that happen and
共同的貨幣政策，而且只有一種單一貨幣
1:10:28
and in the past even some economists that they say this is the greatest this was the greatest recession happened
就是歐元，這是第二個區塊，歐元區
1:10:38
since the Great Depression of 1929 so economics describe what's happened in
我們先討論美國
1:10:46
2007-2008 as the worst recession that's happened since the Great Depression in
從危機開始談起，因為這是發生的主要事件之一
1:10:52
1929 okay so that is that is something very important to to understand so we
1929，好的，這是我們需要了解的一個非常重要的概念。
1:11:02
move them to talk about how big the United States economy is how the economic performance in the United
接著我們要來談談美國經濟的規模有多大，以及美國在危機前、
1:11:11
States before the crisis during the crisis and how they recovered after the crisis
危機期間的經濟表現，還有危機後他們是如何復甦的。
1:11:16
we compare this with some indicators macro indicators in the euro area and we talked about some of the issues that
我們會將此與歐元區的一些指標進行比較，並且討論了歐元區面臨的一些問題，接下來我將
1:11:23
face the euro area where I'm going to
以中國作為總結。中國是
1:11:29
conclude with is China China is the
世界第二大經濟體，
1:11:35
second largest economy in the world
且成長速度非常快，
1:11:39
is growing so fast it's been growing for
長時間以來都以非常快的速度在成長，
1:11:45
long time for really very fast and
而根據某些指標來看，它在經濟規模上
1:11:52
according to some indicators actually it has overtaken the United States in terms
其實已經超越了美國，好的，所以如果你看他們的 GDP，使用購買力平價（PPP）來計算，你會看到
1:12:00
of the size of the economy okay so if you look at their GDP using the purchasing power parity you will see
這點，當你為全世界的經濟體排名時，你可能會發現最近，過去兩三年內，
1:12:10
that and you rank economies in across the world you might find recently over the last two or three years you might
中國經濟的規模變得比
1:12:17
find that the Chinese economy actually become in Psy's become bigger became
美國經濟更大，
1:12:25
bigger in size compared to the the the United States economy so China is a
所以中國是
1:12:31
major economic power it's been growing so they witnessed an incredible growth
一個主要的經濟強國，它一直在成長，見證了令人難以置信的成長，
1:12:39
right okay it slowed down recently okay but before that it was really for for a long time they've been growing so fast
是的，最近成長是放緩了，但在那之前，很長一段時間它都成長得非常快。
1:12:48
[Music] however as I said before well growth is
[音樂] 然而，就像我之前說的，成長是
1:12:54
good but it's not enough does that mean people in China are enjoying a higher
好的，但這還不夠。這是否意味著中國人民的生活水平
1:13:04
living standard our standard of living compared to the US know if you look at
比美國更高呢？不，如果你看
1:13:11
the very simple very simple indicators that we use before which is GDP per capita so how do we get GDP per capita
我們之前用過的非常簡單的指標，也就是人均 GDP，那麼我們要如何計算人均 GDP 呢？
1:13:20
remember this is the output per person or so you just divide the GDP by the population so if you look at the
記住，這是人均產出，或者說你只需將國內生產毛額除以人口
1:13:29
size of the population even if they are the same well I mean many people will argue like the the the u.s.
所以如果你看人口規模，即使它們一樣，嗯，我的意思是很多人會爭論說美國
1:13:37
economy still the largest economy in the world but that's fine so even if they are the
仍然是世界上最大的經濟體，但這沒關係，所以即使它們是
1:13:41
same is still if you divide this by a larger number of population which is the case of the China then that means much
一樣的，如果你將其除以更多的人口，中國就是這種情況，那就意味著人均國內生產毛額會低得多
1:13:49
lower GDP per capita okay so the population is more than four times that
好嗎？中國的人口是美國的四倍多
1:13:55
of the US okay so the output or the GDP I think that was in 2015 so it's not
所以產出或國內生產毛額，我想那是在2015年，所以不是
1:14:05
very up-to-date figure but more or less was sixty percent of that of the day of
很新的數據，但大約是美國的百分之六十
1:14:13
the u.s.
的國內生產毛額
1:14:15
GDP so the output per per person or the GDP per capita is fifteen percent of that of the u.s.
所以人均產出或人均國內生產毛額是美國的百分之十五
1:14:27
GDP per capita so it's very large economy but they have their own problems too okay so
的人均國內生產毛額，所以它是一個非常大的經濟體，但他們也有自己的問題，好的，所以
1:14:32
again that's why when you when you study macroeconomics when you study GDP how to measure GDP how to calculate GDP
再次強調，這就是為什麼當你學習總體經濟學，當你學習國內生產毛額，如何衡量國內生產毛額，如何計算國內生產毛額
1:14:41
different ways of doing that you still need to understand okay we have macro indicators but you have to be
有不同方法可以做到時，你仍然需要理解，好的，我們有總體經濟指標，但你必須
1:14:46
very careful when you explain or make conclusions based on these macro
非常小心，當你解釋或根據這些總體經濟
1:14:53
indicators so yes China has been growing very rapidly as I said for a long time more than 30 years or three decades now
指標做出結論時，所以是的，中國一直增長非常迅速，正如我所說的，很長一段時間超過30年或現在已經三十年了
1:15:03
the economic growth in China has slowed down recently but even during the crisis
中國的經濟增長最近放緩了，但即使在危機期間
1:15:10
even during the the global financial crisis the Chinese economy was growing
即使在全球金融危機期間，中國經濟仍在增長
1:15:18
was a bit slower but still it slowed down a little bit but still it was growing so that means an economic test
變慢了一點，但仍然放緩了一些，但仍在增長，所以這意味著在經濟上
1:15:27
very pure economic terms they're doing very well but again it depends really how you interpret or how you explain
從純粹的經濟術語來看，他們做得非常好，但這真的取決於你如何詮釋或如何解釋
1:15:35
these figures as I said before be careful when you deal with averages because these masks or cover so
這些數字，正如我之前所說，處理平均值時要小心，因為它們掩蓋或涵蓋了
1:15:43
many a lot of things that you you probably wouldn't see just by looking at
很多你只看表面可能不會看到的事情
1:15:51
the GDP per capita or just the average growth rate so if we follow the same set
人均 GDP 或僅是平均成長率，所以如果我們遵循相同的指標
1:16:00
of indicators when we look at growth right look at how the growth rate was
當我們觀察成長時，看看 1990 年到 2007 年的成長率是怎樣的
1:16:07
1990 to 2007 10% growth rate this is massive growth rate this is average okay
10% 的成長率，這是巨大的成長率，這是平均值，好的
1:16:15
so it was incredible growth rate even during the great crisis I said it's slowed a little bit but it was growing
所以這是令人難以置信的成長率，即使在重大危機期間，我說它稍微放緩了，但它仍在成長
1:16:24
okay so compared to the United States as was - was negative numbers was - two
好的，所以與美國相比，當時是負數，是 -2
1:16:31
point something so in 2015 yes slowed down but still growing okay so it's not
點多，所以在 2015 年，是的，成長放緩了，但仍在成長，好的，所以它不再是
1:16:41
ten percent it's now around five six percent but it is growing okay so and it's it's still a massive economy with
百分之十，現在大約是百分之五、六，但它仍在成長，好的，而且它仍然是一個巨大的經濟體，有
1:16:50
so much potential and some people explain the growth the rabid output
如此多的潛力，有些人將中國快速的產出
1:16:58
growth in China by their high accumulation of capital and
成長歸因於其大量的資本累積和
1:17:05
technological progress so again we need to understand the determinants of growth
技術進步，所以再次，我們需要了解成長的決定因素
1:17:14
and this is something we'll cover in one of the lectures so that is the idea so whether it is China or any other country
這是我們將在其中一堂講座中涵蓋的內容，所以概念就是如此，無論是中國還是任何其他國家
1:17:21
we need to understand why okay why can't you X grow faster than country why okay
我們需要了解為什麼，好的，為什麼某個國家無法比另一個國家成長得更快，為什麼，好的
1:17:30
why China has been growing all that for all these decades how this happened why other countries are still struggling
為什麼中國在過去這幾十年來一直成長，這是如何發生的，為什麼其他國家仍在掙扎
1:17:38
they're not actually doing well I mean if you look at many emerging economies
它們實際上表現得不好，我的意思是，如果你觀察許多新興經濟體
1:17:47
they they grow so fast but then what is driving this growth so these are
它們成長得如此快速，但那麼是什麼在推動這種成長，所以這些是
1:17:54
questions that we hope to try to answer in this in this module when we we talk
我們希望在這個模組中試圖回答的問題，當我們討論
1:18:03
about economic growth and the determinants of economic growth looking
經濟成長以及經濟成長的決定因素時，觀察
1:18:09
at the unemployment rate in China sounds okay so we look at three point three
中國的失業率，聽起來還不錯，所以我們看到危機前是 3.3%
1:18:19
percent before the crisis during the crisis four point three inflation is very low in 2015
百分比，危機期間是 4.3，2015 年的通膨非常低
1:18:28
such but anyway so this is this is really what I wanted to do today so I
等等，但不管怎樣，這就是我今天真正想做的，所以
1:18:36
wanted to start with what is economics what we're trying to do need and sorry what is macroeconomics what we are
想先從經濟學是什麼開始，我們試圖做什麼，抱歉，是總體經濟學是什麼，我們在總體經濟學中
1:18:44
trying to do in macroeconomics examples of what we going to cover and then I try
試圖做什麼，我們將涵蓋的例子，然後我試圖
1:18:51
to link this to real world data looking at the global financial crisis looking
將這與現實世界的數據聯繫起來，看看全球金融危機，看看
1:19:00
at the the United States economy the Chinese economy the euro area and picking some of the main macro
美國經濟、中國經濟、歐元區，並挑選一些主要的總體
1:19:13
indicators that anyone who's trying to assess the economic performance in these countries or in these areas would
指標，任何試圖評估這些國家或這些地區經濟表現的人都會
1:19:23
actually look at I'm not saying these are the only economic indicators that you looking at but mainly these are the
實際關注的指標，我並不是說這些是您唯一要看的經濟指標，但主要這些是
1:19:31
three indicators growth rate so GDP growth rate unemployment rate inflation rate and and so on so what what next
三個指標：成長率，即GDP成長率、失業率、通貨膨脹率等等，那麼接下來呢
1:19:40
then so where are we going to take this to so next lecture I'll be talking in
那麼我們將如何繼續呢？在下一堂課，我將詳細討論
1:19:46
detail about gdb how to measure gdb all the sort of stuff related to GDP and GDP
GDP，如何衡量GDP，所有與GDP和GDP
1:19:53
growth different concepts and how to understand it I'll be talking about unemployment rate and inflation rate
成長相關的內容、不同的概念以及如何理解它，我將討論失業率和通貨膨脹率
1:20:02
what I want through you to do to prepare for the lecture if you can be great if you could this is going what we
我希望你們為這堂課做準備，如果你能做到就太好了，如果可以的話，這是我們今天
1:20:10
did today is chapter 1 in the textbook so if you read chapter 1 would be great but for the next lecture if you read
在教科書中第一章的內容，所以如果你閱讀第一章會很好，但對於下一堂課，如果你閱讀
1:20:17
chapter 2 would be would be very helpful ok and as I said if you have any questions please please email me thank
第二章，那將非常有幫助。好的，正如我所說，如果您有任何問題，請務必給我發電子郵件，非常
1:20:25
you so much [Music]
感謝您。[音樂]
