the countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this is the clothes the stock market stretches toward a wreck or high in the bond market tries to spoil the party live from Studio 2 here at
Bloomberg headquarters in New York I'm Romaine Boston and I'm Katie Creffle it's nice to see you again I'm glad they rehired you thank you I'm back I'm rehired let's take a look at where we're gonna close out on this Friday at least looking at the leaderboard right now you can see the S&P 500 on track free a fourth straight day of gains we have that big decline on Monday distant
memory the S&P 500 higher by about one fourth of a percent meanwhile I take a look at the NASDAQ 100 higher by about half a percent a bit more energy when it comes to big tech I can't say the same about small stocks the small cap Russell 2000 down about a tenth of a percent it might have to do with Romaine
mentioned when it comes to the bond market you're 10 year treasury yield higher by about four basis points currently Romaine we're sitting above four ten so we'll see how high we can go yeah an interesting yin yang going on in the market right now has for stocks that long a way to rebound in consumer
sentiment did help give a lift the stocks ahead of next week's Fed decision but a long delayed report showing a stall in consumer spending and an uptick in core inflation that is keeping a bit of a lid on some of those market gains now to be clear the S&P did briefly trade above its all-time high broad-based
gains as well the main market factors change higher on the day and on the week it actually remains liquidity and value keep that in mind because that one to punch of liquidity and value well it certainly does reflect a bit of risk on sentiment it also reflects some concern concern that this market could flip the
other way and fast a barrage of economic data raising more questions then answers though no one out there seems to think that will force the Fed the shy away from a rate cut next week well almost no one I don't actually don't think it's a lock I actually think you know when you look at we're gonna have
probably have some descents you probably have a disagreement I think it should be a lock listen I think the fact that we haven't heard anything otherwise that they're probably gonna go but I definitely don't think it's a it's a hundred percent that they're gonna go and Rick reader sentiment best illustrated by
those moves in treasuries which are on track for their worst weekly price performance in six months largely due to conflicting perceptions about economic data and the Fed the treasury sell-off also compounded by a ground swell of corporate debt sales that are crowding out everything else and it could get more crowded the seventy-two billion dollar deal Netflix struck to
buy Warner Brothers that includes fifty nine billion dollars of financing which would be one of the largest loans of its kind in history really looking forward to discussing that deal from all different angles but let's go back to the economy as Romaine said we're starting to get economic data from the government
again a lot of it is delayed we did get an interesting read from the University of Michigan when it comes to consumer sentiment take a look at their chart behind me the December preliminary figures show that sentiment actually rose for the first time in five months which certainly tells you something and
the reasons why we're pretty interesting as well when you consider why this bar turned green a lot of it came back to help people are feeling about their personal finances that's one of the reasons that was cited for why you see that little bit of a bump up when it comes to sentiment inflation expectations when
it comes to consumers have pretty much studied Romaine so you can see this look but we know that of course sentiment can change quickly all right well let's get to someone who knows a lot about this Nilo Richardson is an economist in fact chief economist over at ADP also the head of ADP research and Nilo when we
start to talk about the overall complexion of what's going on in the economy obviously you have the labor component which I'm sure we're going to talk about today though we got a little bit of a read on consumer spending consumer confidence and of course inflation what if anything did we learn today that would change the course of history absolutely nothing we did see
a pick up in consumers sentiment and hello by the way we did see a pick up and consumer sentiment that is still low it's at very low levels consumers are still gloomy and we also saw that spending as of September had stalled a
bit and I think that speaks to a more cautious consumer a consumer that has been at sometimes fickle sometimes shying away from big ticket items like you see in the durable durable good sector and so the consumer is the story of the
2025 economy it's been supported by a pretty stable labor market to date but as goes the consumer so does the labor market and vice versa well I am curious I mean who who's wagging the dog here I mean should we be paying more
attention to the labor market and obviously you have a bias because you work for ADP but I've heard from so many economists that when the Fed goes into these meetings there is a lot more discussion about the labor market even if they are in fact discussing inflation it still ends up being a labor market discussion it is it's always about the labor market because what the Fed is
looking at it not not just in terms of the actual jobs hired but they're looking at wages and the biggest fear on the Fed's inflation agenda has historically been a wage price spiral we never got that we hadn't even in the
height of the inflation increases did we see that but high wage growth and we're measuring at ADP with over 26 million workers in our sample higher wage growth now than before the pandemic wages keeps inflation up it puts a floor on
inflation and so it's harder to push it back down to target when wage growth has been so robust over the last three to four years let's talk about where wage growth is right now because you take a look at the most recent ADP figures it jumped out to me that pay growth it slowed in November year over year for
job stayers we're talking about 4.4 percent that's actually down from four and a half percent for job changers pay was up 6.3 percent that compares to 6.7 percent you know I'm wondering you know with those kind of figures that we're talking about in the most recent reading how might you expect that to
sort of trickle through into inflationary pressures I don't think it well I think you're right it keeps a floor on inflation but it doesn't provide upward pressure on to inflation and if you look at the latest read from November that
you highlight Katie what we did see is a down tick sizeably in job changers that means that there's a less incentive now for workers to leave jobs and get that higher pay bump you're not going to see a lot of turnover in this market a lot
of workers are just happy where they are thank you very much in this uncertain economy and so wage growth from job changing is likely not going to be as a big of an X factor as we were used to seeing in 22 and 23 it also means it's harder to get a job in this environment especially for early career this has
been a story told time and time again not only in the media but in neighborhoods because it is taking longer for young college graduates to find work right now absolutely the anecdotal evidence there is certainly staggering when it comes to the difficulty of some of those early career folks finding a job but I
want to talk about this from a sector level as well because I think about the most recent ADP print what sticks out to me is that it was particularly weak when it comes to manufacturing we know that that's been reflected in the government's non-farm payrolls prints as well and you know I wonder you know what you make of
what's going on specifically in manufacturing and what might actually bring it back now manufacturing has been in a virtual recession for a while for the past two years it's we've tracked it we actually saw some hiring games in
the early part of the year but we're not seeing it in the second half and it picks up a trend before the pandemic so what will revive manufacturing I think these productivity games AI robotics in particular might lead to some interesting action but really it is the combination of AI software and
hardware that is new and different in terms of the manufacturing but manufacturing wasn't alone in terms of the downturn we saw in November it was really almost every sector except for the consumer facing ones health care
non-cyclical and leisure and hospitality and then we saw a pickup in natural resources and mining that I think is tied to data centers resource intensive construction and that's really notable as well about where the economy is going where the economic puck is leading to and it has to do with tech not just
manufacturing a product but also putting that AI software in place as well I am curious in longer term and looking at kind of the the structure of our economy there's also been a huge debate here about the skill level of new entrants into the workforce longer term whether they are going to be up to
speed if you will on a lot of these technological advancements how do you sort of factor that into some of your long-term forecast about not just labor supply but more importantly skilled labor supply it's the most important question in my mind Romaine it's an era of not only just AI but aging this is a
rapidly aging workforce unfortunately I'm part of it too and rapidly aging as we speak but it's really for the entire workforce we're likely to see employment grow over the next decade at a fraction as it did the previous decade because of
retirement alone and so having the right expertise and knowledge and skills in the workforce is going to be of critical importance and early career we've seen in data in association with Stanford University early career is really most vulnerable right now to a in AI exposed occupations like software developers or
cost center operators so it's really important for companies to think long term about how they engage talent that they're not hiring it's harder for their early career to get into the they're put into the door we're not even having a skills conversation yet and so we need to think about broadly apprenticeships
or internships programmatic ways to keeping young people engaged all right Nila always a great conversation Nila Richardson there the head of ADP research or closer look at the state of the economy just a few days ahead of the feds next big meeting meanwhile here on the close we continue to count you
down to those bells was a closer look at the biggest story of the day the biggest deal of the year Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery we're going to discuss the consequences to Hollywood with a former executive at Netflix and Hulu and from a childhood favorite to global phenom Bill the Bears CEO is here
到收盤鐘聲，更深入地了解當天最大的故事，今年最大的交易，Netflix和華納兄弟探索，我們將與Netflix和Hulu的前高管討論這對好萊塢的影響，從童年最愛到全球現象，Bill the Bears的CEO來到這裡
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revealing the unexpected surge that's turning stuffed animals into serious business and how tariffs could stir trouble for the brand and I hope you're ready for some football Katie the real football global football FIFA World Cup 2026 the New York New Jersey host committee CEO Alex Lazry he's going to be
stopping by to join us here on a day of the final draw and talk about what fans cities and the economy should prepare for for next year all that and more coming up in a bit this is the close on Bloomberg well stocks ending the week on a high note with moderate PCE data all but
cementing a Fed Ray cut next week our next guest says the party is far from over with the positive signs adding up but that investors should place their bets carefully join us now is Paul Christopher he is head of global market strategy over at Wells Fargo investment Institute Paul great to have you with us
on this Friday I know the consensus says that we're going to see a rate cut next week but we just heard from Rick Ritter saying that it's not quite a lock I wonder where you fall on that question no hi Katie yeah it's good to be back and with you and and we think it is as close to a lock as you can get what's
interesting to us is how the probabilities have changed it was near 100% near the end of October then it got to down to 29% and now it's right back up and all that's really happened is that the Fed Federal Reserve excuse me the federal government has begun publishing data again and what do we see in the data surprise the data trends that were in place before the shutdown are still
in place we think Fed Chairman Powell has focused on the labor market he will continue to focus on the labor market that means a quarter point cut next week yeah it has been pretty amazing to see it become a live meeting the not alive meeting and now it seems like the market thinks it's going to be a lot to your
point I want to talk about how that's filtering through into asset prices I want to talk specifically about the bond market because you take a look at the ten-year treasury yield that has been particularly volatile even more so maybe than the two-year yield which is where you might have thought you would see a lot of this getting priced in and out I wonder what you make of what's going
on at the long end so at the long end you yeah you're right you've seen some volatility there that really is explainable by what's going on in the economic data and with consumer sentiment earlier in the fall let's say after September 30 right before the end of November right before Thanksgiving in that period
there you had a lot of questions about the economy a lot of wondering out a lot of speculation and quite frankly a lot of hand-wringing and what what that did was lead to the idea that well gee economy's too strong Fed's not going to be able to cut we need that liquidity and so the market was weaker on that account
and now that the the data have come back in and as I said before the trends remain what they were before the shutdown the market has resettled once again on that idea of a rate cut so that allows the the short end of the curve to fall and it allows also the idea that the economy is going to pick up from here
that allows the long end of the curve to start moving higher so you're going to see some curve steepening here we've seen just a few basis points so far we think you're going to see more of that in the next year and with regards to kind of the other big pillar of the market action that we've seen this year is the
AI trade Paul and I know there's been a lot of people kind of looking through the leads right now trying to figure out of whether this rally went too far too fast is there still a long-term case to be made for entering into that AI trade assuming you don't already have exposure to it yeah we do believe there is and
we do believe that sort of from a secular perspective a long-term perspective we're still early in the build out of artificial intelligence and by the way it's more than that it's also cybersecurity it's digital assets it's automation and new phases of automation so technology here writ broadly that's
what we're talking about and we do think that has further to go but will there be times when the market gets a little bit ahead of itself yes and notice we had the pullback in November we had another pullback in August both of those around earnings seasons so that kind of thing is going to continue we think you will
see more chopped next year what you want to try to do is play the trend the long-term trend we think is in place but not chase expensive stocks and expensive sectors we can talk some more about that if you like we'll go for it Paul because I mean what exactly does that mean when you say that yeah so there's
different ways to play what I'll call subsidiary trends or ancillary trends if you're going to have AI for instance you're going to need data centers we've been saying this for most of the year the data centers have fallen behind the actual increase in the hardware improvements in the hardware and so there
are computers sitting out there under tents I'm told and that can't be so you're going to need to build these data centers that's we're going to require materials it's going to require industrial activity and then you're going to have to power the things not just powering up these two and three ton
computers that are more than your laptop but also cooling them that's very important as well that's going to put a strain on the existing power generation and transmission network so utilities have gone from becoming or being a defensive sector to one that's really oriented towards this growth and
technology spending and look at the multiples the trailing 12 on utilities is right around 2021 on IT and information technology it was much much higher so play the trends that are related but do it more cheaply and Paul we don't have much time left and I hear when you're saying when AI has been
these story over the past several years and investors should look to how to play that trend but are there any other investable narratives out there when you think about how investors like to seize on a story or is it really just AI at this point it's heavily AI and we're going to see that AI filter into other
sectors I believe but we also believe that there's ways to kind of play other trends will help you diversify away from you being reliant just on AI and I think about that yield curve okay we were just talking about short-end falls long-end steady to hire that means that banks who pay on deposits from the
short end those costs are going to fall with short rates but their loans are lent out at long-term rates those rates are going to be higher steady or higher so financials is another one of our favorites here for that particular reason and that's not directly in AI play all right Paul always great
conversation Paul Christopher Head of Global Market Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute helping us count you down to the closing bells here on this Friday afternoon where the bidding war for Netflix at least for right now for Warner Brothers Discovery appears to actually be over Netflix appears to have won the bidding rights to Warner Brothers Discovery and one of the
現在與我們連線的是富國銀行投資研究所全球市場策略主管 Paul Christopher，幫助我們倒數迎接這個週五下午的收盤鐘聲。目前，華納兄弟探索公司的競標戰似乎已經結束，至少暫時如此，Netflix 似乎已經贏得了華納兄弟探索公司的競標權，這是近期最大的並購交易之一，接下來我們將在《收盤鐘聲》節目中為您帶來更多詳細內容。我是 Plumber，現在是我們的「頂級呼叫」時間，即分析師推薦的大幅波動股票。
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largest M&A deals in quite some time that's coming up next here on the Clothes this is Plumber all right time now for our top calls big
movers on the back of analyst recommendations let's start with MP materials Morgan Stanley upgrading the rare earth's producer to overweight boosting the price target to 71 the analysts saying geopolitical tensions continue to raise doubts about the supply of these critical components which actually elevates MPs strategic value take a look at those shares moving
higher on the day by roughly about 2% next up synchrony financial bear cutting the financial services company the neutral the price target said it 82 the analysts saying the risk reward balance has shifted and they have some concern over synchronies exposure to lower end consumers investors though they don't
seem to care pushing the shares higher by about two tenths of a percent but that now takes the wind streak to eight straight days and pushes that stock to a record high and finally unity software Wells Fargo says it's game on for the video game and app development platform raising to overweight setting a price
target of 51 bullish on unity and predicts a favorable industry backdrop overall for 2026 those shares up about 2-3 percent here on the day those are some of our top calls now let's shift to well one of the biggest deals in the media landscape since at least the mash-up of AT&T and Time Warner back in 2018
Netflix apparently agreeing to buy Warner Brothers discovery in a deal that could value it at almost 72 billion dollars when you include debt the streaming diet giant taking over one of Hollywood's oldest and most revered studios as well as the HBO network David Joyce joins us right now seaport research
partners senior analyst David what was your impression when you first heard that Netflix might actually be the winner of this bidding war I was starting to hear through industry sources earlier in the week that the likelihood was starting to wait towards Netflix so I mean we've had several weeks to
我想你會想看看流媒體服務的使用量。如果你看看尼爾森的數據，我想 Netflix 的市場份額約為 8%，而華納兄弟的市場份額為 1.5%。將它們放在一起，在流媒體方面，它仍然比 YouTube TV 小。
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contemplate all of these various combinations with Comcast or with Paramount Skydance or with Netflix so on the one hand it wasn't terribly surprising but on the other hand yeah this is a this is a new paradigm here
absolutely David and I'm curious where you weigh in on the question of whether this is going to run into antitrust concerns that seems to be one of the big things percolating in the air today I really think that that concept is overblown because there there's no you while there is some overlap with with
但是的，環球的母公司康卡斯特可能需要更大的規模，然後還有一些較小的公司，比如獅門、Stars 和 AMC Network，所以我們將看到會發生什麼。好的，David，很高興聽到你的觀點。這是 Seaport Research Partners 的 David Joyce。接下來，我們將與行業顧問 Simon Gallagher 繼續討論。現在是紐約時間下午 3:30，這是《收盤倒數》，我是 Romaine Bostick，我是 Katie Greithle。
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the customers on the streaming side a lot of households do take three and four and even five streaming services so I don't think it really changes the landscape because there's a lot of those those bundles are already put together also Netflix has been releasing up to 30 films I think this year but
我們終於得到了華納兄弟交易的結論，Netflix 在這場競標戰中脫穎而出，這場非常公開的競標戰。是的，雖然我們應該在這上面加上一個星號，當然還有一些附帶條件。今年，這件事已經完成了，我確信我們還沒有聽到 Paramount Skydance 的最後聲音，他們已經表示，他們並不一定認為華納兄弟是在誠信談判。然後是 Elizabeth Warren，她從不放過任何機會來抱怨正在發生的事情，當談到這些並購交易時，她稱這是一場災難。誰知道這件事會走向何方，但至少目前看來，Netflix 佔據了上風。
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they were not wide releases and they weren't not out there for long so they didn't generate much in the way of revenue in theatrical releases so they don't have much market share on the theatrical release side I think that you would want to look at you know the amount of usage that you know that the
絕對如此，看到股票的下跌幅度可能不如預期的那麼大，相對於價格標籤來說，這很有趣。讓我們現在與 Simon Gallagher 討論這個問題。他是 SPG Global 的董事總經理，也是 Netflix 的前內容採購高管。
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streaming services get and if you look at Nielsen gauge you know I think that's about 8% share that Netflix is getting and Warner Brothers is one and a half so put those together yeah on the streaming side it's still smaller than YouTube TV
so I think that's the fears are probably overblown but yeah you're still going to have the regulatory environment that has some uncertainty here just real quickly I'm curious as to what you think becomes of the other major Hollywood studios the ones that are still relatively independent you know the
Disney's Universal Sony's etc any change there potentially anytime soon I don't think so Disney Universal's fairly sizable on its own Sony's and maybe a little bit smaller people don't normally consider that when thinking about the
space but I would say that that they could be a contender given how things are evolving but yeah there are other aspects of Universal's parent in com in Comcast that might need some more scale parent might need some more scale so and then there are some smaller companies out there like Lionsgate and
星光和AMC Network，所以我們將看到會發生什麼。好的，David，很高興聽到你的觀點，這是David Joyce，來自Support Research Partners。接下來，我們將與行業顧問Simon Gallagher繼續討論。現在是紐約時間下午3:30，這是收盤倒數時刻，我是Romaine
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Stars and AMC Network so we'll see what happens all right David great to get your perspective that is David Joyce of support research partners coming up we'll keep the conversation going with industry consultant Simon Gallagher this is the close 330 p.m. here in New York this is the countdown to the close I'm Romaine
Bostick and I'm Katie Greithle we finally got a conclusion to that Warner Brothers deal Netflix emerging as the winner here of this bidding war this very public bidding war yeah although we should put asterisk by that of course there are still some caveats this year this year it's done I'm sure we haven't
heard the end of it from Paramount Skydance which has already said that it didn't really necessarily think Warner Brothers is negotiating good faith and then Elizabeth Warren who never passes up an opportunity to a pine about something going on and when it comes to some of these M&A deals she's calling it a disaster so who knows where this thing is gonna go but at least for right
now it looks like Netflix has the upper hand absolutely it's interesting to see the downdraft and the shares maybe not as much as expected relative to the price tag so let's discuss that now with Simon Gallagher he is managing director over at SPG Global also a former content acquisition executive over at Netflix
Simon great to have you with us that's where I want to start the price tag I was taking a look at Bloomberg intelligence their report out they crunch the numbers and basically this deal it's 24 5.2 times forward EBITDA you think about
recent studio M&A it's closer to a range of 15 point or 15 to 22 times so you could make the case that this looks expensive and I wonder where you fall I think everyone needs to keep in mind that Warner's value inside Netflix is
exponentially larger than what it might be on a standalone basis people are valuing the Warner asset as it is today not what it could be when you light up the 190 countries that Netflix is currently live in which is a much larger footprint than is currently available to HBO and Warner Brothers today so it
sounds like you're saying this is the proper home for Warner Brothers discover I want to talk about movie theaters I thought it was interesting to hear Netflix management say that they're going to release movies in theaters what do you make of that strategy do you think that they'll stick to it you know it's
interesting I had a conversation with Reed Hastings about his very topic 10 years ago now and he was very much against the releasing you know it was all about how do we provide the most value to the subscribers and that was delivering the films to them in the home but fast forward 10 years and I think you can really see that it's a tremendous marketing channel to put
Netflix films in the theaters but maybe not for as long and maybe on the day and date basis but provide the best possible viewing opportunity for some of the marquee films and I think they might be able to go ship more preferred terms now that they've also got the Warner Brothers Warner Brothers assets alongside the
Netflix films well I am curious I mean if you did still have the ear of Sarandos and Peters I am curious as to how you would want them to balance out the obviously their core business of streaming with this idea of theatrical releases and I bring that up because there was a lot of criticism that they
didn't necessarily keep K-pop demon hunters in the theater longer when it really became clear that it had become sort of this phenomenon and I understand why they pulled it that was part of the transition but this is one of those moments where they could have capitalized this on this even more and I'm curious
Do they care about it? Absolutely they care about it and it's certainly interesting and but again it's more a marketing asset to say to the existing subscribers look at this tremendous value that we're creating for you this is theatrical release worthy but you know what you can go and view it at home for
the price of your subscription and we think that delivers you more value so in relative to the people do they have people internally I'm sure they have a handful of people internally but they'll scale up as needed they're a very intelligent organization and they'll manage it appropriately. With regards to
the integration of Warner Brothers Discovery assuming that this deal does go through I mean I assume there's going to be a lot of overlap in terms of personnel and I assume there's going to be some consolidation there but but how deep do you think that needs to be or is there going to be some symbiosis in
keeping a lot of the folks from Warner Brothers intact more or less. I think Warner Brothers brings tremendous production expertise that goes back a long way as well as development expertise so I think what you'll see is Warner Brothers and HBO existing as silos inside the Netflix organization to produce
content that's more specific to those silos so and and maybe perceived as more premium content that it's it's iconic type titles that might be perceived with more value and maybe it introduces an opportunity for a different
subscription tier even I don't think that's the way they'll go because they love the simplicity of the single price point but it does present that as a as a viable option if they've got the HBO and Warner Brothers content. Well Simon I also want to talk about antitrust concerns here as well because you think
about Netflix you think about HBO the point could be made that they're competing for the same audience and given that context do you think that we're going to run into issues here and that Netflix can get this over the line while keeping HBO. I'm sure they've put a significant amount of time into this
before actually formalizing the offer they wouldn't have proceeded down this path without a lot of legal analysis on what potential hurdles they may face and at the end of the day everyone needs to keep in mind that they're currently 9% of television viewing time in the United States if the if the
acquisition is looked at alongside YouTube which has perhaps what does have higher viewing hours the Netflix at the moment and if it's also considered alongside the broadcasters who have more significant sports rights then it seems to be a much more even playing field and a defensible acquisition if it's
considered just on a subscription streaming basis which I don't think it should be then it starts to be a little bit more of an uphill battle and I want to talk about the industry overall you think about this particular deal it's just enormous in scale but do you think that this could encourage and perhaps
open the door to more consolidation within the industry I think there's going to have to be because this is certainly only makes Netflix more powerful more more of a value proposition for the consumer and for the others to
compete particularly on a content volume basis I you know I think what Apple has done in terms of taking a very premium approach to the space is clever but when you look at Paramount Plus when you look at what some of the others are offering I just don't think they're robust enough to compete even if Netflix
ups their their monthly subscription fee all right Simon great stuff great to catch up with you Simon Gallagher they are managing director over at SPG Global closer look here at that pending deal between Warner Brothers discovery and Netflix and you know I'd say have you seen K-pop demon hunters you know I
did a Peloton themed ride but I've never actually I'm sorry a what a K-pop demon hunters Peloton themed ride yeah I guess it just played music from the show as someone who's never watched the show yeah it's kind of lost but I understand that you know it's really taken fire and it sounds like you're a
fan I am golden you know they got nominated for that's a good song on the ride so I'm familiar with it okay well there you go weren't they at the Macy's Thanksgiving parade as well they were yeah they turned it out I'm part of the culture when we come back the conversation up ahead with Joseph said of
course legendary real estate investor real real estate and retail investor now chairman and CEO over at door equities had a conversation with him about his data center investments in which markets he's bullish on take a listen I think that the biggest winner of this will call it the post-COVID world as we as
we're living in today is probably the UAE another story we have our eyes on is a Bloomberg scoop that Softbank is in talks to acquire digital bridge a private equity firm that invests in data
centers to take advantage of the AI driven boom now we had a chance to catch up with another investor cashing in on that space Joseph said he's the chairman and CEO of Thor equities we talked to him about exactly where he sees investment opportunities take a listen the AI boom I think is not just the fly in the pan I'm
extremely bullish on bullish and financial markets on bullish in the stock market and that translates into real estate as well I think that the amount of investment going into AI we're talking about let's say in my industry specifically our main focus has been for the last seven and a half years data
centers you see this year we'll have 250 billion spent on those hyperscale data centers it's calling for within seven years the annual spend to go to two trillion so with that type of spending going on Microsoft spending a mind-boggling 25% of their sales on CapEx that filters into bill it business
New York City tends to be the biggest beneficiary receptacle of good business now we shift to the political side politics is politics I didn't call for Eric Adams to win I'm a fan of Eric Adams I would have liked to see him run
everybody knows I was not a fan necessarily of Como to be the other choice but in terms of Mr. Mamdani they all soon to be Mayor Mamdani I'm always the positive that I sit down with him yet no but I'm hopeful that he's
getting a quick education he seems like a smart guy and maybe could wake up to the realities that you have to win with positivity not win with negativity I'm somebody that spent a tremendous amount of time in the Middle East I know one of his top agendas is Gaza and the Middle East conflict and Israel versus Syria
Israel versus Lebanon I've done charitable work for example in Syria for years and years I visited there I invested millions into various charitable ventures throughout the Middle East so I get all sides of the view so hopefully I could
be a sounding board for him I think of what's the most important thing for me as a resident in New York and the message that I want to prevent more of my friends running to live in a Miami or in a Hollywood or wherever markets they pick around the world Palm Beach etc etc is crime meaning safety yeah and two is
a focus on driving local economics and business and I think that seeing a Kathy Wilde seeing a general lentis getting involved from the business side seeing Tisch staying on from the crime and crime prevention side I think you
know so far those two moves impressed the heck out of me I know that he's got a balance to the constituents that put him in that are maybe a little bit more woke so to speak but I think that if he opens his eyes and sees the world the world is changing our thanks again to Joseph said chairman and CEO over at
Thor equities and founder of the retail chain Ashley Stewart certainly a wide ranging conversation there now we're just about 15 minutes away from that closing Bell romaine looking at very yeah tepid but still gains on the S&P 500 yeah it is it's kind of one of those real kind of weird incremental moves that
despite being incremental actually is potentially taking us to a record high yeah release close enough to it but some people say that's a good thing right this is a much broader rally that we've seen so you're not getting the big home from the Nvidia's of the world and that's why you're seeing a bit more restrained but you know gains are gains restrained but broad-based gains are
gains in the world's of romaine boston now coming up next we'll take you to the Nicole and newy she is head of equity strategy America's at HSBC this is the clothes on Bloomberg welcome back to the close just about 10 minutes until we get to that closing
Bell a focus on the market today with the S&P up for a fourth straight day setting up for a second straight week of gains but it looks like we're gonna come up just a little bit shy of that record high yeah and who knows what could happen in the next 10 minutes we could see those gains fading that's what they're doing right now the Russell 2000 the small caps deepening their decline on the
day down about four tenths of a percent as an index and the bond market romaine it's really interesting to take a look at what's going on there the 10 year treasury yield higher by about four basis points we are above four ten and it'll see if the fed meeting delivers any well I'm glad you went there because I
thought this was curious we're actually up like something like 10 basis points over the last few sessions and a lot of this actually goes back to the news that Bloomberg first broke back I think it was November 24 thanks kidding the Kevin Hassett was the presumptive fed nominee and of course Trump seemed to kind of then ratify that with the offhand comment at an event and the market reaction to
that has actually been the sell-off treasuries the concern here that he might be a little bit too dovish for come and more importantly their concerns about fed independence given how close of a Russian ship he currently has with this administration absolutely I mean I've been off for the past two days but I did catch that story out of the FT talking about some of those concerns that
bond market participants have voiced it brings me back to the September 2024 rate cut a jumbo rate cup and you saw long and yields really go up in reaction to that which was confusing at the time you could see some similar dynamics at play right now of course what the fed does next of course a big component of
what the market does nest so to of course our economic conditions and corporate fundamentals you throw them all together and some big questions here not so much as to how we end 2025 but more importantly how we end 2026 Nicole Inuit joins us right now head of equity strategy for the Americas over at HSBC
and Nicole I do want to start there with kind of a push ahead into 2026 I know a lot of people are focused on this fed meeting next week we know that's kind of a done deal we're through earnings season for the third quarter that's a done deal but as we get into next year do you see anything fundamentally changing with
regards to the corporate economic and rates backdrop so you know again the markets pricing in this rate cut in December we've always expected this rate cut in December you know where we differ we expect the fed to stay on hold for the next two years you know the markets pricing in additional cuts
next year we think the fed doesn't need to cut so we're gonna stay with kind of a higher terminal rate than the market is expecting so you know I think that's one thing when we look at the beginning of the year we could see some volatility as the market kind of re-prices this rate cut expectation for the fed in
2026 you know in terms of earnings I mean you know as you said third quarter was a phenomenal earnings season so again with the magnitude and the breadth of earnings the the beats and in terms just the overall growth and we expect that to
continue into 2026 so we expect 12% earnings growth I think the the big difference then front we're saying this year to what we see next year is kind of this broadening of earnings growth so you know again tech mag 7 you know are
gonna continue to grow at a strong rate but you're actually probably gonna see mag 7 the growth rate decelerate a bit compared to 2025 but then if you look kind of at the rest of the S&P so the rest you're actually gonna see an earnings acceleration so we see that group of stocks really bringing up
earnings growth from you know a single digits to a high single digit level so that gap between mag 7 and the rest is gonna narrow so with that we expect to see kind of a broadening of the earnings growth a broadening of the rally compared to this year in terms of the rally was extremely concentrated in tech
in mag 7 but with that broadening is that broadening also sort of a tech in AI story or is it about something else I think you know we say broadening we're talking about broadening of the AI trade so we still think you need to be in tech you need to be in the mag 7 but maybe you take a little bit off the
和 Mag 7，但隨著這種擴大，這種擴大是否也是一種科技和 AI 的故事，還是關於其他東西？我認為，你知道，我們說擴大，我們談的是 AI 交易的擴大，因此我們仍然認為你需要投資科技，你需要投資 Mag 7，但也許你可以...
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table and you start investing more in kind of these AI enablers AI adopters you know you have financials you have health care that we think we'll start adopting AI and so we think you know there's opportunity to broaden kind of just outside this this very concentrated group of stocks you know the hyperscalers
從中獲利，並開始更多地投資於這些 AI 使能者、AI 採用者，你知道，你有金融、醫療保健，我們認為將開始採用 AI，因此我們認為，你知道，有機會擴大這個非常集中的股票群體...
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into kind of this broadening the AI trade into these others these enablers and the adopters you still need to be in them but we think there's other opportunities there well Nicole ask you the same question that I asked Paul Christopher and that is what other investable themes are there out there if
這些超大規模企業，擴大到這些其他企業，這些使能者和採用者，你仍然需要投資它們，但我們認為那裡有其他機會，Nicole，我問你和 Paul Christopher 相同的問題，那就是有哪些其他可投資的主題...
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any we know that AI has been the story of these markets for the past several years but is there anything else that you can really dig your teeth into or is AI it sure sure you know one of the other big themes and and we've been talking about this actually for a while is this case shaped consumer and we
如果有的話，我們知道 AI 一直是這些市場過去幾年的故事，但還有其他你可以真正深入研究的東西嗎，還是 AI 就是一切？當然，當然，你知道，另一個大主題，我們其實已經談論了一段時間，就是這種形狀的消費者，我們...
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think that will continue into 2026 where you see the high end consumer continuing to do well and the low end consumer still struggling but that doesn't mean you you're completely out of the consumer space it means that you need to be very selective in terms of where you invest within consumer
discretionary within consumer staples so just because the low end consumers under pressure doesn't mean they stop consuming but you're going to concentrate that consumption in companies that offer a very strong value proposition so there's opportunities we think in certain companies in certain sectors that would
be able to gain share we've already seen this in the third quarter we expect to continue to see this going forth so in you know certain supermarkets and certain QSRs and certain stores that can really gain share with this lower and middle income consumer and so we think those sort of stocks will outperform going
into 2026. It's interesting to hear you say that and you know it brings me back to a theme that I've spoken about at various times that okay you can invest in companies that consumers spend money at sort of consumer facing businesses or you know you could gravitate more towards the businesses that other
businesses spend money on and I feel like that just brings us back to technical I wonder you know how you think through some of those different elements. Yeah I mean so tech is going to be part of the story so you know you know this group of companies the hypersales tech in general you know you're going to be
growing at 20% earnings for next year ROIs are still very strong profitability metrics are still very strong if you look at adoption the tech is obviously the one that's going to lead to the adoption so you know you want to be in those stories but I think you can be within the sector you can be
in some of the other enablers and adopters such as software that we think can really outperform and really take you away a little bit out of that kind of that really concentrated positions within the hyperscalers so again AI is the theme for next year and the one thing we say is you know without AI it'd be
very hard I think for the market to to continue to rally going next year and it's really supporting GDP growth I mean you have the hyperscalers that are spending you know half a trillion in CapEx for next year so you know looking at the the trade you have the AI you know data setter CapEx then that will
continue to be strong well you have manufacturing and residential that continues kind of to move sideways going into next year Nicole great conversation have a wonderful weekend Nicole Inui head of equity strategy for the Americas over at HSBC kind of is down to those closing bells just about two
minutes to go here fractional gains on most of the major indices only about three of the eleven sectors in the green but that's enough to push the broader market into the green as well on the day and on the week as we move closer to the closing bells let's bring into the conversation our Bloomberg markets correspondence Billy Lipscholtz joins us here in studio to very cold studio to
and Jonathan Levin who for some reason has a much better assignment down there in Miami I assume it's not 30 degrees down there Jonathan so I'll start with you since you're probably nice and warm and toasty when you look at the rally the complexion of this rally and I put rally in quotation marks given how
incremental it is what keeps it going yeah well it's interesting you know the thing that led to the sell-off recently was really all about tech information technology sector specifically those that second guessing of the NVIDIA trade also Microsoft those have not been the names that brought us back right we're
we're really riding Google we're riding the recovery in meta but it just goes to show you this AI story is so strong that even though you know the hardware names are weak we have you know we have the Googles taking us higher again we're
you know knocking on the door of a record yeah it's been interesting to see also kind of the broadening out of the trade whether it's just within technology or even if you look over the last few weeks we've seen health care really finally catching a bid and we've seen investors kind of pivoting away from kind of the known winners for this entire AI trade and trying to expand but
obviously all eyes are going to be on what the Fed does what the messaging is next week so at least from the investors I've been talking to it's really kind of a keep buying dip your toe in the water but we're still waiting to actually see if we a get to see a full Santa Claus rally and be more importantly what
happens before that is what we get in terms of the messaging from the Fed I was wondering how long it would take until we heard Santa Claus mentioned and we finally got it that Santa Claus rally mentioned we'll see what happens but as you can see right now it looks like we are going to finish in the green romaine on this Friday yeah at least so when it comes to equity
here so see some softness in the dollar on the day and more importantly on the week and of course that potential rebound that we saw Bitcoin trying to stage here stalling out just a little bit gonna end the day in the red also down over the last few days as well green across the screen though for the
three major indices and averages the Dow Jones industrial average up 100 points or two tenths of 1% the S&P up roughly about 13 points or two tenths of a percent as well and the NASDAQ composite and the NASDAQ 100 each adding about three to four tenths of 1% all three of those indices also finishing
higher on the week the Russell 2000 though sitting this one out on this Friday down about four tenths of 1% but still the gains from earlier this week enough to get it to log a nine cents of a percent gain over this five-day stretch I just want to call out a trading volume looking at that AVAT function on
the S&P 500 expectations for volume around three billion that's below what we've seen on a 10 and 30-day basis so we are still kind of eking through I don't want to call it a summer Friday vibe but it definitely feels like year end where people are trying to either right-size portfolios again or decide
which bets they want to dial up or dial back on ahead to the Fed and you take a look at the sector breakdown of this day it's almost an even split not quite though you can see there is a lot of green when it comes to the sectors in terms of who was carrying their weight all told about five sectors finished in
the green six in the red leading the way higher as you can see on the circle tech having a big day here so too did communication services a lot of that coming from Warner Brothers discovery which I'm sure we'll discuss in terms of what didn't perform on this Friday remain utilities energy and health care
taking up the rear here you know when you were gone the last couple of days for your trial tell me about I got to talk to the circle for my trial okay well I'm I hope that you and the circle made friends yeah I just want to look at some of those stocks in the green some of those outperformers whether they're big or small starting with Ulta Beauty Katie I don't know how much money you're
spending on makeup or fragrances but not very much well then you're the outlier because they beat expectations analysts talking up fragrance and skincare helping drive 3Q earnings expectations for 4Q to be pretty strong this is a stock closing at an all-time high up about 13% on the day so a
big move for Ulta Beauty also want to stay in the consumer space another outperformer not quite like discretionary spending dollar general ticker DG rallying today up more than five and a half percent closing at the highest level since July 2024 turns out that if you clean up the stores more
people are likely to show up obviously been talking about whether we're seeing kind of the middle or upper class spender kind of down shifting spending it does seem to be continuing to play out for dollar general you want to cap off with rubric ticker RBRK up more than 22% in that cyberspace beating expectations
hiking their revenue forecast for 2026 analysts really talking about the company firing on all cylinders at one point looked like the biggest day since it went public back in 2024 did not hold on to those and I just want to add on honorable mention in there a city group up about a percent on the day a fourth
straight day of gain so its highest level since 2008 and a redhead crossing the wire the company actually the stock actually trading above book value for the first time since 2018 it's been a phenomenal turnaround for a lot of the bank stocks in fact the KVW bank index closing out the week at a record high
Jonathan yeah well I get to talk about the deals news of the day here so we've got Netflix closing down 2.9% of course the big deal of the day is Netflix to buy Warner Brothers at Discovery it's going to be a $72 billion deal to be paid in
cash and Netflix stock you know the bull case here is it gives Netflix an extensive library of hits all those HBO shows that we like and so on and so forth but lots of outstanding questions about this this deal to give investors pause is it worth the hit the hit to Netflix's balance sheet of course Netflix
investors are not used to massive deals like this a secondary question is is there going to be a culture clash between the streaming first Netflix and an old school studio the market seems to be telling us today we're still kind of in
wait and see at the same time I want to go now to Paramount Skydance down significantly more 9.8% on the day they're sinking after they missed out on what was seen as this this make or break deal for them there's speculation they still
have options here but it's going to cost them a pretty penny we have Bloomberg intelligence note out saying they could take their offer up from a reported 30 bucks a share to something like thirty two thirty three dollars a share but again the message here is if they want to stay in this game they're going to
have to they're going to have to start paying up lastly I want to take folks over to so-fi ticker S O F I closing down negative 6.1 percent this is basically a delusion story for an online personal finance company it's out in
the market saying it's raising 1.5 billion in a share sale issue here too is this is not this is not the first share sale that they're doing this year bear in mind that this very same company did a 1.7 billion equity raise just in
July so you know what is that telling us there yeah absolutely here and we talk about this idea here of how all of this ends up feeding into other parts of the market a big focus right now on what the Fed does next and by next I don't necessarily mean next week but really into next year with the potential
changing up the guard the uptick that we saw in yields on the day and on the week really reflective of some of the anxieties in this market right now about whether the Fed will keep its focus on that dual mandate in an appropriate way I should point out that the 10 year yield at 4.135 is about 13 basis points
higher than where we were last Friday to your yields moving a little bit less than that on the week but still higher to end the week than where it was last week something you wouldn't think happened given how much everyone is pricing in a rate cut and next Wednesday's meeting I just want to quickly go back
to city group Romaine you read the headline that it's trading above book value for the first time since 2018 I was actually playing with these numbers earlier before you take a look at specifically the financial sector city group is your best performing financial stock of the year higher by nearly 59
percent year to date we know it's been a banner year for Jane Fraser all told the stock trading at its highest level since 2008 so interesting to see maybe that start to get reflected in its valuation as well yeah it'll be interesting to see as you mentioned kind of how it positions itself relative to those peers
obviously when we talk about the banks everyone wants to talk Goldman Sachs JP Morgan and Bank of America among others Morgan Stanley but when you certainly look at kind of how city group has been able to power and get back above book value yeah yeah and a lot of that is certainly a management story
there's also an interesting story on the Bloomberg terminal here about some concerns about activist investors when it comes to regional banks in the need for consolidation there all right what else are we talking about today anybody now probably bubbles right well Jonathan I read the story yours and by
read I mean really just watched all the animations pop up and tell me are you trying to convince me for our readers don't know he had a great column they kind of walk through the idea the concerns about whether we're in a bubble or not I got to the end of the article Jonathan and I still don't know if we're in a bubble or not yeah that's kind of the point I mean the the the the the issue
is the valuation question I honestly think is the most important question in markets today and it's also the most unanswerable one so if you are all in on a certain thesis you're just doing it wrong you know it's good it's good to
have have conviction but everybody out there in the game has got to realize that there's a decent chance that they're getting it wrong so we put out this product it's basically a point-by-point point counterpoint for every argument that you can make about about valuations today obviously you know
we're in unprecedented terrain the shiller P literally is has no comparison aside from 1999 1929 how should you think about it and we're just trying to encourage people to look beyond that one single chart they only got about 20
seconds here if you had been the editor on this story would you have allowed that to run I think it's interesting and that's the fun part about opinion is you guys are able to flex muscles differently than Katie or I would on the typical quote-unquote yeah we need a nut graph and a conclusion yeah it's a great
we've got I do like that have cartoon bulls and bears and I want to say is it felt like we were describing Seinfeld Del where it was like it's an article about nothing but it's an article about everything at the same time I encourage everyone to read it yeah one of the most read articles on the
Bloomberg terminal this week our thanks to both you guys Jonathan have a wonderful weekend down there in Warren Miami Bailey try to say warm up here in what I'm told is some freezing temperatures here in New York City all right that does it here for the first portion of this show normally we
wrap up a sign okay does anyone know what happened to the simulcast I guess Carol and Tim they go Fridays off winter Fridays somewhere I assume is also somewhere all right well we're here Katie and I and we're gonna stick around we need to take a quick break but when we come back we're gonna continue to follow what is likely the biggest story of the week with Netflix set to buy Warner
Brothers Discovery Mark Douglas over at Mountain gonna be stopping by the big program in a second this is the close on Bloomberg the countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this is the close
welcome back to the close I'm Katie drive-thump and I'm Romaine Bostick an interesting week market did move higher pretty much all week long let's take Monday out of the equation the gains as you see on the screen at the top there were fractional do be sure but enough to actually put most of the major indices back within spitting just since that they're all-time high it was yesterday
when the Russell 2000 actually hit right above that all-time high pulling back just a little bit today and today the S&P 500 traded right around that all time high 68.90 and change that is the key number you want to look at we closed just below that here but I think most investors will take it two straight
weeks again now for the S&P 500 a much more complicating factor for the cross-ass market gonna be this last few lines of the screen what's been happening in yields that up-ticking yields heading into a Fed meeting where everybody expects rates to go down and Bitcoin it had its mojo back before you
left for that 12-day vacation Katie Greifel but since you come back taking a little bit of a lay down it's not just happy to be here we'll keep an eye on Bitcoin but let's get back to this equity market take a look at the day's biggest movers you had also flying on this Friday finishing nearly 13% higher
Warner Brothers discovery of course finishing the day more than 6% higher Netflix winning that bidding war with a lot of asterisks which will get into Invesco also having a very good day the asset manager rising 4% they delayed their proxy vote on the cues to December 19th that is consequential and I'll tell
you why in two weeks but let's get to our weekly ETF check the SEC this week delivered a big break check to the race to create ultra leveraged US listed ETFs saying that it would halt its review of proposed three times and five times
funds now Bloomberg intelligence they cheered this move saying that the funds were quote mathematically positioned to blow up Bloomberg intelligence ETF analysts Oppenazio Sarafagus joins us now Oppenazios you crunched the numbers over at Bloomberg intelligence and let's assume that a lot of these products had
been launched my understanding reading your report is that a lot of them would no longer exist yeah that's exactly right so we had tested this and said okay the stocks of these ETF issuers are proposing let's say they had existed and
obviously this was a pretty volatile year we had some of the tariff tantrum in April and so if you look back about 35 of these would at some point would have exceeded a move enough to like to basically wipe out the value in one day and actually this did happen in Europe there was an AMD levered 3X ETF that
ended up closing in Europe so I think overall it's a smart move like I love it the industry is trying to push the envelope but I think this overall a good move by the SEC to say listen we want product we want innovation we don't want things to blow up right and sort of increase risk for investors so I think
overall it's a really good move for them to sort of block these right now do you think that block those stays in place is this just more of a pause why does they try to assess things and maybe try to create some guardrails or is this basically done as in like not gonna happen yeah that's a good question I
assume they're gonna try again so their main issue was the issuers got a little they tried to sort of skirt some of these derivative rules that were embedded in the funds and so the SEC wasn't happy with their math and said hey just go back and redo the math based on the rules but if you just apply that
logic there's no way that 3x can really get approved so unless they find some other work around really if they do just conform to those rules it's pretty unlikely that these would get approved and often as you know it's another thread in the story that I thought was interesting was the fact that the SEC drew this line in the sand at all you think about the Paul Atkins SEC and the
perception has been that it's been a little bit more permissive than other regimes if you want to phrase it that way yeah for sure I think if we were probably taking odds at the beginning I think people would have probably put some pretty good odds that these would have been approved just because of how accommodated the new administration is but I think this just reminds us that
yes they are looking maybe they might be more open to other things maybe not necessarily leverage but let's say private assets or things like that so they may be more open to that but I think overall it's a good sign just to show that hey you can't get too crazy with these products we know we want to make sure that they're obviously still you know good things being brought to the
market that it's not ultimately going to harm investors so it's good to see that they're still sort of you know putting the stop on some products going to be pushing it a little too far beyond the regulatory issues so I am curious as to what exactly was the demand for these products potentially looking like I
understand why these companies were trying to sell these products but it also seemed like the proliferation of them released the ones that they were put on the table seemed to exceed at least what I could tell was the actual genuine demand coming for them yeah it's a it's a it's a good balance up so I
think they wouldn't have been bringing them to market if there wasn't some sort of demand for it but to your point they were just throwing a splattering of different stocks right so there were some stocks I remember that I had to look up the ticker because I didn't know what they were so I think there's that fine
line that yes okay maybe people were using it issuers can charge more for these products that's why they're doing it but I think ultimately there was the man for it I think it's also conducive with just how the market has been maybe you know if we have a prolonged bear market they may pull back on these types
of products so there has been some demand and ultimately these are really profitable for the issuers that's why they want to bring them to market they can charge a lot you don't need that much in assets to make this a profitable product you get a lot of attention you can get the retail crowd involved so I
think those dynamics is what makes it so attractive for these issuers to just keep bringing them whether or not there's actually real demand for them all right Athanasius really appreciate your perspective that is Athanasius Sarafagus of Bloomberg intelligence and of course for more ETF insights be
sure to check out my newsletter it's called the ETF IQ you can subscribe at Bloomberg.com slash ETF IQ newsletter I promise this one this week's edition is about to go out I'm a little late today what is it give us a sneak peek I would love to tell you well the first section of course is on what we just discussed
一定要查看我的新聞通訊，它叫做ETF IQ，你可以在Bloomberg.com/slash ETF IQ newsletter訂閱，我保證這一期的周刊即將發布，我今天有點晚，它是什麼？給我們一個預覽，我樂意告訴你，當然，第一部分是關於我們剛剛討論的
1:00:46
with Athanasius pretty big news the second section is on invest though that delayed proxy well if it passes if they're able to convert the cues into an ETF that would have locked of course a huge windfall for in VSCO which is why it's the second best performing financial stock of this year oh man all right well
we I feel like we've been it's like waiting for good dough for this in VSCO two weeks but you know what Katie there is one deal that actually might actually be done of course that is the bidding war that's been going on for Warner Brothers Discovery the historic day in the media space with Netflix agreeing to spend close to $72 billion including debt to buy up Warner Brothers Discovery
does that mean the deal is done a discussion up ahead with the CEO of Mountain Mark Douglas that's coming up next you're on the clothes the Super Bloomberg all right the big story of the day involves Netflix the chair has dropped
這是否意味著交易完成了？接下來與Mountain的CEO Mark Douglas進行討論，接下來是Super Bloomberg的衣服，好的，今天的大新聞涉及Netflix，椅子已經掉下來了，
1:01:40
about 3% on the day after we learned that had it apparently won the rights to buy out Warner Brothers a $72 billion deal that is going to potentially include $59 billion in debt this on the news that the streaming giant will only buy WBD studio and HBO assets as far as CNN and some of the other news properties
well not so much Mark Douglas joins us right now he's the CEO of the ad tech platform Mountain and Mark I'm gonna first start with CNN because obviously news hits home hits to the heart here any chance that they could stand on their own CNN I would say no I mean I think that they'll hopefully find a home CNN
is kind of a brand that I think most people have grown up in news I think the tagline right is the first name in news yeah and so I think they do find a home but it clearly doesn't make sense for Netflix to kind of go into that arena so I'm sure that you know there is the right home for for that property and a few
other properties involved all right well let's talk about the other a core part of this business that Netflix really wants and how it sort of folds in to the Netflix ecosystem I mean you talk a lot here about some of the progress Netflix has made not just in terms of content but with the ad rollout and some of the other advances that they've made how does bringing all of that content as
well as the debt and other burdens that come along with it end up being a net positive for Netflix well I think there's a couple of things here so one is the property in to some extent HBO was the original Netflix in the sense of they had original programming that was kind of that like just show after show the
sopranos you know things like that as well as the library movies Netflix have obviously brought that to the internet and scaled it even larger and so for you it fits right in and I think what I'm hoping for is that Netflix has the
resources to basically take Game of Thrones further obviously to take white lotus in more seasons the discovery that I'm not sure if Discovery Channel is part of the old but that would be a terrific property I think the Netflix to
pick up and most importantly it can help them expand internationally these are tempo names that I think you know resonate worldwide and Netflix can take that to help their continued international expansion well Netflix perhaps they can actually redo the ending of Game of Thrones I'm sure myself and a lot of
fans would appreciate a little bit of a redo there but when it comes to Netflix I just want to zoom out a little bit because we've been covering this bidding war for weeks and sort of the narrative around Netflix was that okay this would be a nice to have for them it wouldn't necessarily be a need to have and Mark
I wonder if you agree with that and if so are you surprised that you know Netflix won after this this aggressively yeah I agree with you that it's a nice to have in other words Netflix is a prolific funder and as a result creator
of content but I think there's a hidden gem in this deal which is the maturity of the Warner Brothers ad ad force you know basically the ad sales team Netflix their biggest growth opportunity is actually in their ad
business but they have a very small team there that is kind of still getting their feet under the you know the feet under them and Warner Brothers has been doing this literally for decades and that whole team I presume is part of this deal and I wouldn't be surprised if that played a role in the decision and
Netflix to do that and so how does that impact Netflix like from a stock if they can accelerate the growth of the ad business we're talking like another tier of growth in Netflix which is something I've consistently said is that the ad business for them is is up it's going to be a huge growth driver over the next
few years and this potentially accelerates that well when you think about the landscape coming from that perspective of the ad business what do you think that this means for competitors such as Disney such as Paramount yeah I think both companies are in a good place Disney definitely
considers them you know like Netflix arch enemies and they're very proud of the scale of their business with ESPN ABC Disney Plus you know all of their properties and so this is kind of definitely continues this like battle between them and I think Paramount given the funding behind it with the Ellison
family is right there and it this was a big loss for them I think in terms of their plans not to pick up the property but I think they're determined to continue to be one of the consoles in the industry so I think these companies are going to compete but Netflix definitely like this is a big coup for
them in terms of bringing this kind of content the DC universe all of that into Netflix and you know continue to bring consumers and bring them worldwide where this content wasn't as easily available to the other streaming services kind of step it up though assuming this deal does go through yeah I
think we were predicting or I was predicting certainly that there were the industry is ripe for consolidation and it's like the last month of the year it you know we I think it's like still at least nine months before the deal can go through and you know that it has to be approved by the government but the so
it's going to be a while before Netflix officially owns these content but it I think it sparks off even more consolidation and it's necessary I mean the companies the media companies that have good content but maybe don't have the brand or the freshest new content to attract consumers they're gonna have
to find a home someplace else and you know Netflix Disney Paramount you know are some of the key leading candidates to be those acquiring companies well markets a good reminder that the story far from over great to discuss it with you that is Mark Douglas he is the CEO of Mountain now up next tariff pressures
haven't even spared build a bear workshop the company warned in its earnings report yesterday I'm pleased to say that joining us next is CEO Sharon Price John will have an exclusive conversation with her when we return this is the close on Bloomberg
well even build a bear workshop is facing tariff pressures the furry friend factory warned in yesterday's earnings report that tariff pain could stretch into 2026 despite adding new locations and reaffirming its full-year guidance those comments overshadowing the company's most profitable first nine months on
record joining us live in studio for an exclusive interview I'm pleased to say is build a bear workshop CEO Sharon Price John Sharon great to see you in person thanks thanks so much I appreciate being here so let's talk about the landscape right now I was taking a look at some comments from your CFO yesterday
that you know the company took preemptive actions and that really shielded you in the first half of this year what is the state of play right now where are you most exposed when it comes to some of these tariffs well to just sort of let's set the record straight I mean we have been providing information and
counsel about these tariffs for the entire you know year I think is that especially starting in second quarter we had a much better idea about how it would impact the back half and when we set that guidance in the second quarter we reaffirmed guidance so all of that's been contemplated in our 2025 numbers
what we've said is that we expect that the total tariff impact for 2025 to be approaching about eleven million dollars and we had about one million dollars hit us in the second quarter and then we had four or so in the third and we're
expecting about five to six in the that six in the in the fourth quarter so that's how you get to that eleven million dollars in the warning that we wanted people to understand is that because we took such preemptive actions in the first half that's going to be a tough compare yeah in the following year
and we just don't want people to misunderstand that we will have tariffed product run through our system in the first half of 2026 there's really no way around that right right but it's not always as self-evident as as one
might think yeah and I mean you take a look at the share reaction shares finishing yesterday down by 15 and a half percent so clearly a little bit of surprise there but talk us through I mean the steps to mitigate some of this impact I know that you put through a lot in the first half of the year but as you
move into 2026 just talk us through you know how you navigate some of that right especially given that you know it seems like the landscape shifts so rapidly when it comes to the state of trade policy it does shift rapidly and that does make it difficult and I think that most of us know that some some
precision and predictability and horizon in business is extremely helpful in planning a longer-term approach to creating value for your shareholders but what we've been able to do over the course of the last few years is diversify
精確性、可預測性和遠見對於規劃長期為股東創造價值的方法非常有幫助，但過去幾年我們能夠做到的是多樣化
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that sourcing strategy to some degree right so we are in China and we're in Vietnam but as much as we thought that would be a really advantageous strategy that has not stayed stable either so really what we're focusing on mostly is
just how do we manage it throughout every link of the value chain it's not just at the source the site of sourcing even though you do negotiate with these partners and some of these partners we've had for a long long time right so it's not in anyone's best interest for anyone to not be operating as in the healthiest
way possible and so we do you know we all the things you're gonna think yeah strategic price increases where it makes sense where we're not really impeding the business where we think we might have that elasticity you know squeezing down where we can in other areas that might save us you know
whether it's SG&A or anything else that we feel like that we can push out those expenses. Well let's talk about the other side of the equation which is demand and I mean I know the holiday season kind of skews things because obviously everyone is sort of looking for sort of that special emotional type of gift but when you talk about demand overall all through this year and heading
into next year how does that compare relative to what we've seen in past years. Well we have we've recently you know we had the record four years in a row and with this reaffirmation of guidance we're expecting our fifth
consecutive year of record results on particularly on a revenue side and that we expect that we with the guidance in mind would be our first half a billion dollar year in the history of the company our year to date was up eight
percent now some of that's pricing but that's not all pricing and we are seeing at least as we went into the first portion of the quarter to date for the fourth quarter we noted that we saw some softness in the back end of October but we're starting to see a trend shift and our conversion on a year to date
basis while our DPT or excuse me quarter to date basis as well as our DPT on a quarter to date basis is up with Black Friday being the largest Black Friday we've ever had I do think it's important to note to today we saw some recovery in our stock price and a lot of times I you know it the the first day
is a lot of trading on the headlines and then when you dig down into the information the fundamentals are still there this is because if you isolate for tariffs you're going to be you see some very strong fundamentals to the business through diversification of consumer diversification of our
觸及表面，即使我說我在33個國家，聽起來很多，但並不多，我們考慮那裡的空白市場，例如，這是一個很好的思考方式，我們過去在更多的國際國家有業務，當Build A Bear在15年前掙扎時，我到達那裡大約12年半前，我們退出了一些國家，以穩定整個公司，現在我們正在以一種全新的業務模式回歸，稱為合作夥伴運營，這是一種公司運營和特許經營模式的混合體
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countries we entered seven countries and this and just in the last quarter we're now in 33 countries so curious about the last time I spoke to you we're talking about that international expansion so that so that's gone well so far and you plan to continue that well absolutely I mean where's the growth where do you see the most opportunity for growth well I mean in some ways we're simply
scratching the surface even if I say I'm in 33 countries it sounds like a lot but that's not a lot we think about the white space there for example this is a really great way to think about it we have in the past been in more international countries and when Build A Bear was struggling 15 years ago and
觸及表面，即使我說我在33個國家，聽起來很多，但並不多，我們考慮那裡的空白市場，例如，這是一個很好的思考方式，我們過去在更多的國際國家有業務，當Build A Bear在15年前掙扎時，我到達那裡大約12年半前，我們退出了一些國家，以穩定整個公司，現在我們正在以一種全新的業務模式回歸，稱為合作夥伴運營，這是一種公司運營和特許經營模式的混合體
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right after I arrived there about 12 and a half years ago we pulled out of some of those countries to kind of stabilize the company overall and now we're going back in with an entirely new model business model called partner-operated it's a bit of a hybrid between kind of a corporately operating a franchise model
and how much control though do you have over making sure that the stores sort of meet the same standard that most people expect and more importantly not just stores but the service really yeah no I think that's a really important point and I think that one of the reasons that this has been a more successful approach for
us is we've really raised the water level and the vetting of finding those great partners who have a proven track record on being having a high-touch service model the great example is for is going back into countries where we've been yeah like Denmark or Germany which we just launched a brand new store it's in
Berlin and Frankfurt and believe all it is marketing they're the same it's gonna be a really dumb question but our teddy bear I mean our bears I mean are they such a big thing and some of those countries the way they are here well Germany is a great example German so let's just put let just put this one on the table
here so Germany is probably you know it's more of a actually more of a toy centric market and definitely a teddy bear market okay yeah so I mean just we I said to someone earlier today I'm like it's a bear market I mean no no I didn't mean that at all but there's a teddy bear market we had
lines around out and around the corner in both of these mall locations of these standalone stores and so now we'll have like three before the end of the year and when we had a franchise in Germany back in the day that was about 23 stores
so you're looking at some runway here we have given no 26 guidance on that and when you ask about control it's less control but that's a cap light model that is not my capital that you that we're using to expand that's their capital right and we're giving them the training the marketing the products and and they
now are entering into markets where we have multi-generational knowledge and appeal right and I just got to say the idea of a teddy bear market so much cuter oh yes yeah I do want to go back to your stock price and I'm going to zoom out here I'm going to talk about the five-year performance okay I'll talk about that
it's stunning it's stunning build a bear is higher by more than 1,100% on a total return basis over the past five years those are in vidia type yes that's higher by about 1,200% I think you think about the S&P 500 just for comparison up 100% in that time
you know I talk to a lot of CEOs a lot of them tell me we don't pay attention to the stock price is this something that you have printed out though because I mean it is a stunning chart I'm surprised that a CEO told you that they don't pay attention to the stock price multiple because that is the essence of the creation of shareholder value
我與許多 CEO 談過，他們大多告訴我，他們不關注股價。但這是你印出來的東西嗎？因為這實在是一張驚人的圖表。我對那些告訴你他們不關注股價倍數的 CEO 感到驚訝，因為這正是創造股東價值的核心。
1:17:17
so when we with that is part of my job yeah whether it's in the appreciation of the stock price or returning capital through buybacks all the way to dividends so we're very focused on the return of capital shareholders but yes and you know what's funny about that is I did not know that that
was true until I was on a I was in an interview and someone shared it with me and I I'll try not to like replicate the face that I made on national news but yeah and now we've had a lot of questions about that and we're but I think you know it's important to pay attention but not to get caught up
in it because we're not driving it for driving it's sake like we're not quarter to quarter but that's what ended up happening because we've kept delivering over those four consecutive years quarter on quarter on quarter of great fundamentals of diversification of the plan even think about
this this international expansion that we're doing that is a diversification away from and gives me a hedge on tariffs yeah because the more I sell outside the United States where I'm not going to have the tariffs you know the better or off on an average cost basis it will be all right
Sharon，我們得在這裡結束了。是的，我不用把這個過塑給你，我知道我必須相信這很棒。Build-A-Bear Workshop 的 CEO Sharon Price John，同時，讓我們看看市場在這個星期五收盤的情況。令人欣慰的是，標普 500 指數上漲了一點點，但仍然算是收紅。無法說
1:18:29
Sharon we have to leave it there yeah I don't have to get that laminated up for you know I know I have to have to believe that's awesome uh the CEO of a build-a-bear workshop Sharon Price John meanwhile let's take a look at how markets closed on the day on this Friday blissfully the S&P 500 finishing up a fraction but still it counts finishing in the green can't say
the same for the Russell 2000 down about four tenths of a percent a lot of rutions when it comes to the bond market that sell-off continuing in the system. Is this still my world?
rutions? Yes. That does seem like a very romaine word in mindset. Well rutions too hint Bitcoin down another three percent this is the close on Bloomberg. Thank you Sharon.
好的，我們距離世界上最大的體育盛事之一——FIFA 世界盃——只有幾個月的時間了。這次世界盃的抽籤剛剛在今天早些時候在華盛頓特區的肯尼迪中心結束。現在從紐約連線的是 Alex Lazry，他是 2026 年 FIFA 世界盃紐約新澤西組委會的 CEO。Alex，很高興
1:19:17
All right well we're just a few months away from one of the biggest sporting events in the world the FIFA World Cup and that will draw for that World Cup just wrapped up a little bit earlier today at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC joining us live from New York is Alex Lazry he's the CEO of the FIFA World Cup 2026 New York New Jersey Hosts Committee. Alex great to
have you here and of course for our viewers don't know most of these games will be played of course in the New York New Jersey area talk a little bit about the potential impact that that's going to have for the local economy here. Well the impact of the of these games on the local
economy is going to be massive. I mean we're looking at over three billion dollars of economic impact millions of fans from around the world that are going to be coming right here to to our region and I think the potential legacy is even bigger right what we want to do is show the world that if you want to have the premier sports and entertainment event you want to do it in the
biggest stage right here in New York New Jersey. I am curious Alex about this idea of having all of these international visitors coming to the US particularly at our time when there's been a huge crackdown on immigration and a lot of concerns about how welcome some of these people are going to be when they start to arrive and assuming they do arrive are they going to be welcomed.
They are and we're going to make sure they are because we are really excited to welcome the entire world to to our region and that's what the benefit of this world cup is and what makes this world cup so unique. The economic impact of this world cup is has a lot to do with the millions of visitors who are going to come to this region to participate in the world cup and I think what's
unique about a world cup is that most people that come aren't going to the stadium to go to a game they're coming to come to our fan fest come to our fan village come to all of our activations and just be part of the world cup experience and that's what we're really excited about to welcome
the entire world right to our region and you think about that welcoming the entire world you think about where this is being held meant life meant life of course can handle a lot it's hosted a Super Bowl before for example how will this final compare to that for example this final is going
to be the biggest sporting event maybe even the biggest event in human history we're looking at if you think about the last super the last world cup final it was viewed by the same amount of people as the last 13 Super Bowls combined so if you think of you know American football as our sport
football is the world sport and we're going to be having the eyes of the world upon us for this final so this is going to be the biggest event that that we've ever hosted outpacing a Super Bowl Taylor Swift concert you name it this is going to be the biggest event we've ever had and we're
you know going to show the world that if you want to have a sporting event or anything on the biggest stage you got to do it right here in New York New Jersey well to your point I mean this is the world's game we're talking about the US market and it feels like everyone growing up in the US
play soccer in some form you think about soccer's popularity though in the United States I mean what do you think the stakes are here when it comes to raising the profile of the sport domestically I think our hope for this World Cup and the legacy for this World Cup is doing for for the for football
what you know the dream team did for basketball around the world right it inspired a generation of basketball players and now you've had like the last six MVPs not being from the United States and I think our hope for this World Cup is that it inspires a next generation of athlete right
you're going to have a bunch of six seven eight year olds who are going to be feeling the energy seeing the best players from around the world competing on the biggest stage and hopefully it inspires them to go play football and to go join the US men's national team to make us the strongest team in the world when you look at the 99 women's World Cup you know those images and that energy
led to the women's national team being the most impressive and and biggest powerhouse in women's soccer so I think we're hoping for the same thing for this World Cup and absolutely you talk about the formation of MLS back in 96 coming out of the 94 World Cup and exactly all the attention
that Americans who traditionally ignored soccer certainly gave it it gets to the question though Alex as well as to sort of what is the international cooperation going forward and I don't mean at the at the high end World Cup level but do you think we're going to see maybe a little bit more symbiosis
between say the leagues here in the United States with those the big powerhouse leagues in Europe and the UK etc. I think you're already seeing a lot of symbiosis right you're having premier league teams playing and European teams from all over the you know from all over Europe playing in in the United States you know we just hosted the the Premier League Series at MMA at life
we just had the club World Cup right here in you know the the finals and the semi-finals right here in in MetLife Stadium so I think you're already starting to see kind of an expansion of a football from around the world you know really partnering with with us in the United States I
think you know kind of then the next step and next stage on this for the growth of the MLS to continue the growth of the NWSL to continue and also maybe you know you start to see some of these other leagues doing what US leagues have been doing right when you look at the NBA and the NFL
playing regular season matches overseas I think the hope is that you know we can start to do that with football and that will really expand the game and continue to grow the sport.
I know you're basically just in charge of what's going on here in the New York New Jersey area but we should point out obviously these games are going to be spread out in other cities as well as other countries including Mexico and Canada. What are the discussions that you're having with your counterparts in those cities and countries with regards to what they're doing and maybe
sharing some interest and advice as to what maybe you can do as well. We're all trying to share best practices because the fan experience in one city is going to directly affect the fan experience in another and so what we want to do especially here in the United States but all across North America is we really want to put on an incredible show and we want people from around the world
who are coming here for possibly the first time or CEOs of other companies coming here who are looking to maybe create jobs and invest. We want them to see the United States especially as the place to do that and so the fan experience in Atlanta or Miami or Dallas is going to directly
affect the fan experience that you have in New York New Jersey and so we're trying to make sure that we're all in communication all talking about what we can do to make sure that everyone coming to the United States has an incredible experience because I think that the studies that I've seen are saying that the World Cup could have an over 30 billion dollar economic impact for
the entire United States expecting over 6 million visitors so this is this is a very big deal not just for our region but for the entire country. And you know you think about an event like this I have to imagine a lot of it you know falls on the state governments the local governments but
talk to us about the relationship with the federal government how much you know buy-in and participation you need from that level of government in terms of putting on something of this scale.
You can't put on an event like this without coordination and buy-in from your state local and federal government and when I look at the the planning and all of the conversations that I've been involved in and all the preparations that we've made the the the connectivity between
federal state and local has been truly incredible right I think we're actually seeing a a putting a side of politics to make sure that these games are successful and if you look at you know kind of the next 10 years here in the United States this is really the decade of sports and the World Cup
is kind of the kickoff of that right we've got the World Cup in 26 the LA Olympics in 28 we've got Women's World Cup in 2031 and then the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics in in in 2034 or 36 so you know this is the decade of sports we are the the first one and so we really have to make sure
that we put on a great show to you know I think really set the tone for what these mega sporting events over the next 10 years are going to look like. Absolutely Alex really appreciate your time on this Friday afternoon that is Alex Lazary he is the CEO of the FIFA World Cup 26 New York
New Jersey Host Committee and I was actually just in Salt Lake City Romaine yeah and you saw all the signage there for the coming winter Olympics never mind the fact that it's next decade but still a lot of excitement yeah and all that salt around they're going to have to clean up to get things ready for it but I was looking at the draw the US weren't actually a pretty good group here
Group D we're up against Paraguay Australia and then there's a European playoff involving Turkey Romania Slovakia Kosovo that actually looks good pretty much for the US that we can actually get maybe a little bit deeper into this and then of course you actually have the real groups and going up against the German is in the UK but we'll say how it goes. I look forward to
following along as a casual fan I can't say like I'm a huge soccer kind of gal but it's fun to watch but you are a big New Jersey boost and I am told this is going to be primarily in New Jersey and MetLife State can I just say you said to him earlier something about how the MetLife that hosted a super I completely forgot about that I have no idea why you had hosted Super Bowl
in February in January February when it's like 10 degrees in New Jersey but it did happen in 2014 I missed that I kind of missed it too I was really paying attention I was at MetLife this past August to see my chemical romance play it was fantastic okay well I was there for the club work up final you know Paris Saint Germain and not the brag oh yeah we know my chemical
權力平衡將在彭博社的下一個節目中播出。
1:28:40
romance in the parking lot but for our way if you're watching we had a party anyway sick with us this is Bloomberg pushing ahead to what to watch over the next week on Monday we have a sit down an exclusive
interview with the CEO of Macy's getting a read Katie Greiffeld on the help of the consumer absolutely looking forward to that conversation we should probably skip ahead to Wednesday that's what happens yeah at 2 p.m. and it's going to be fascinating to hear from Jerome pal himself what the tone sounds like coming from the Fed chair that won't be an exclusive
interview but it will be important we get a lot of earnings as well including an out of oracle and adobe and more economic data the economic data starting to creep back in Katie Greiffeld remember that yeah and soon it won't be delayed anymore it'll just be fresh soon it will be in real time the show is always in reach real time we'll be back on Monday in the meantime stick around
