the countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this is the clothes US stocks at Peter have gotten their mojo back live from studio to here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York I'm
Romaine Boston and I'm Katie Greiffel we're kicking off to the closing bell here in the US just one day to go until Thanksgiving Romaine and stocks are rallying the S&P 500 higher by about eight tenths of a percent big tech punching above its weight up about one percent right now but once again for
at least the second day the Russell 2000 is your outperformer on this Wednesday Thanksgiving Eve the small caps up about 1.3 percent I wonder how like Bitcoin to Romaine because we actually saw a big rally here a big burst of enthusiasm a little bit earlier in the day we're still below $90,000 a coin but
we're getting very very close yeah risk sentiment has certainly shifted over the last couple of sessions in here on the pen ultimate trading session of November the S&P is poised for a fourth straight day of gains the gains are broad and a retest of key technical support levels that was successful welcome signs of renewed upside momentum for the benchmark index which
remember less than a week ago was nursing a more than four percent month to date decline the last four days have now put the S&P back near break even for the month with nothing left but a holiday shortened half-day trading session on Friday see you then Katie now some of the moves higher particularly
in small cap mid cap and cyclical stocks they are undoubtedly correlated to renewed bets on Fed rate cuts remember five weeks ago traders have priced in a 99% chance of a cut next month those odds plunge to less than 40% last week
following a string of hawkish Fed commentary but the release of delayed government data that showed softness in the labor market well that is now emboldening some of the bets out there here and giving the idea here that those rate cut bets are now back up to 90% high conviction here that they go ahead
in December I thought the whole hawkish narrative from the Fed a week or two ago was a little bit silly given the situation that we're witnessing in the labor market figures meanwhile you got the bullish bets out there for 2026 rolling in already JP Morgan strategist see the S&P rallying at least 11% by the end of
next year to 7500 and say that if the Fed eases policy more than expected 8,000 could actually be in the cards Deutsche Bank spinky Chata also sees 8,000 in play a bit strong earnings Katie and share buybacks that he says will rise in line with profits it's gonna be interesting to see what role big tech has
in that potential forecast and many others on Wall Street and I want to talk a little bit more about the dispersion in the AI trade that we've been talking about a lot this week take a look at the chart behind me in blue you have in videos performance and then in white this is the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index if there's one winner in November it's alphabet of course and to the
downside has been Nvidia so really zoom in on that part of the chart that's the one that's interesting the fact that you're starting to see the lines break apart even though Nvidia has had a really rough November you are seeing the Magnificent 7 as a whole help buy alphabet starting to break away so you
don't just need Nvidia here at Romaine this is a team sport after all when it comes to the market I love that there is no eye and teen Gary Greiffel Jason triad joins us right now he's got an eye in his name Chief of investment strategy strategy and research over at Glen me Jason great to have you here I
mean what do you think's gotten into the market over the past few days is this about rate cuts is it about strong earnings what I think to some degree it's about it's about rate cuts but it's also about a lot of people starting to turn their attention and look ahead to 2026 one of the things that we think we're
going to be dealing with as we begin the year is we're going to see a surge in economic activity from in multiple different avenues number one is going to be the magnitude of fiscal spending fiscal stimulus it comes in from the one
在新的一年開始時，我們將面臨多個不同領域的經濟活動激增，首先是財政支出和財政刺激的規模
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big beautiful bill both for consumers and for businesses starting off next year we're also going to be dealing with lower rates with those two together on top of an already decent earnings picture for the market already and you have some reason for optimism as we start the year and it's an optimism
that broadens out it's not just about AI it's not just about technology it's about all portions of the economy as that fiscal stimulus is shared across the board well that's where I want to go because I mean we talk about the positioning that most folks had for a good portion of the year which was
這種擴展不僅限於AI，也不僅限於科技，而是涵蓋經濟的所有部分，因為財政刺激被廣泛分享
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relatively narrow and for a reason are you seeing true evidence of folks really starting to broaden out their portfolios in a way that is beyond the Magsevan and the other big cap tech stocks that took us here now we don't necessarily have a great look into everybody else's portfolios but what we
think that we're seeing based on street commentary they're coming around to this view that this is a more robust and broadening out economic cycle and as we see other portions of the market participating mid cap and small cap in
particular the rest of the S&P 500 not just the Magnificent Seven we think that is evidence of the market rotating into those names and recognizing that upside now fundamentally underpinning that is something that's really important
and that is that we're seeing smaller company earnings starting to outpace and rebound from levels that we saw just a year ago that provides a more kind of broad outlook and maybe even a remote more robust outlook for those companies
that are down spectrum for investors let's talk a little bit more about those small companies because I know looking at your notes that you favor us small caps here and you're not alone in that Jason but it feels like we've seen so many false dawn so beyond corporate earnings of course those earnings picking up when
it comes to the smaller companies how much of it depends on the Fed actually delivering when it comes to rate cuts next year I think the Fed delivering on some of the rate cuts is actually part of the story when you look at balance sheets for small cap companies they are larger they are larger utilizers are
debt number one number two they do more of their debt and kind of floating rate structure or things that are shorter term in nature so their debt will reprice faster than larger capitalization companies debt but that is not the only story small cap companies are also one of the biggest beneficiaries of the
upcoming impact of the one big beautiful bill they're likely going to see their tax rate which is higher in aggregate relative to large cap companies decrease faster or a more significant pace than large cap companies so you're gonna have both of those things occurring side by side and then if we do have a round of
infrastructure spending pickup your capital spending by by all businesses we think smaller cap companies are more likely to benefit because they tend to be ones that participate on the revenue side of that capital spending if that picks up into next year which we think is something that's going to be big part
of the story in 2026 and just to check the score you take a look at the Russell 2000 year to date higher by more than 13% on a total return basis you compare that to the big guys in the S&P 500 that index higher by about 17.4% Jason
would you expect those two positions to be flipped in 2026 or is this more small caps catching up I think this is going to be more about a lot about small caps catching up in in 2026 they've had they had a really good window before post-COVID they had a back-off period after that as as larger gap in
tech kind of caught a very big wave and now as we're broadening out again we think small cap is kind of catching up to the trend they can participate in long-term markets in fact small cap historically because of its ability to grow faster typically in more typical more typical environments has actually
tended to outperform larger cap stocks and we think they'll be trying to reassert that position longer term in 2026 all right Jason always appreciate it Jason pride have a wonderful Thanksgiving chief of investment strategy and research over at Glenn Meade kicking us off to the close here on this Wednesday
afternoon just ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday and Black Friday well on Friday the National Retail Federation's Mark Matthews will be joining us in just a second to check the pulse of the American shopper as retailers get ready to roll out all of their holiday deals plus Jeffries Sheila
Kalei you jets us into aerospace and defense breaking down what's soaring and what's stalling and where the sector needs a little more runway as holiday travel gets underway and we stay cruising with the travel sector Sarah Nelson of the Association of Applied Attendance is going to be joining us as well to talk about what she expects on one of the busiest travel
weekends of the year all that more coming up in just a bit stick with us this is the close on Bloomberg some breaking news out of Washington DC President Donald Trump has been briefed
on a tragic tragic situation where we've learned that two national guard members were apparently shot now this is a relatively new situation and one of course where we don't have a lot of details but we do want to go to our balance of power co-host Joe Matthew who is down in Washington DC
for a little color on what we know Joe give us a sense here uh not only what we know but where exactly this happened and who was involved you know it's interesting because DC is kind of the opposite of New York when it comes to Thanksgiving Romaine the city empties out it's a ghost town right now the president's Mar-a-Lago
lawmakers are gone and it's kind of like a Sunday when you drive around on this day before Thanksgiving so to see this break out in the middle of the day was quite shocking for those who were literally a block from the White House this happened at 17th and I streets if you're with us on Bloomberg TV you can
see the intersection right near a farrogate square if you know where that is just a couple of blocks away from the actual entrance of the White House now this is something that's just unfolding we can't tell you that an arrest has been made there were concerns about a shooter at large here
to your point Romaine the president has been uh briefed on this but he's not in the White House in JD Vance the vice president who of course lives up at the Naval Observatory is in Kentucky today maybe he'll add a little bit more to this when he speaks a bit later on but this is something that might involve of the homeland security as well we
we saw Kristi Noem on on Twitter a short time ago saying that she has been briefed on this and they're working with local law enforcement we can actually look right out the window here Romaine it took place only a couple of blocks from our Washington DC Bureau and they're closing streets down through a lot of police and emergency vehicles spread out
around the neighborhood well Joe as you say this is a fluid situation so there's a lot we don't know right now but talk to us about the fact that the National Guard was deployed at all because that in and of itself is a bit of an unusual situation well that's true and it was a very controversial one when President
我會告訴你，這可能是因為我知道如何選擇路線和航空公司，所以我相當不錯，這就是為什麼我會在這裡，因為我實際上不會在感恩節旅行，這是我被困的一天。我認為TSA的預期之一是，與2024年相比，我們只預計感恩節週末的航空交通量增長1%，這些數字實際上相當平淡，我們看到Delta在Bastion的Sea of Delta談到預訂量比初始預期減少了5%到10%，只是因為關閉，人們有點猶豫要預訂
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Trump decided to deploy National Guard troops to help fight crime was what he said at the time not unlike what we have seen in some other cities here but their deployment which began in August was recently ruled illegal by a federal judge they're
still walking the streets here because they're allowed to be deployed pending appeal but no this is not something that we're used to seeing when we walk to work in the morning we see sometimes large groups of National Guard troops walking around they've been doing everything from cleaning up parks to helping support immigration authorities in town and to see this happen the day before
Thanksgiving knowing that they're away from their families in many cases really is a tragic situation today. Joe I know we're still waiting to hear from the president you also mentioned Vice President J.D. Vance who's in Kentucky the president himself down in Florida have we heard from any other officials either from the White House or Congress in response to
this shooting? Just as I mentioned the Department of Homeland Security and Secretary Gnome was pretty quick to respond here we haven't heard much else other than press secretary Caroline Levitt and that is a single line as she said the White House is aware and actively monitoring this tragic situation I'm sure
they'll be updating the president as we learn more here but this just happened a very short time ago and as I mentioned when J.D. Vance speaks usually at a moment like this he's in Kentucky to to speak to troops as a matter of fact around Thanksgiving sometimes they'll give us a status update so we'll let you know hey just real quickly Joe I mean you
mentioned the location of this and for people that aren't familiar I mean this is near the White House it's in a downtown district a lot of office buildings violent crime on that particular block that particular square is incredibly rare as having lived in D.C. for years here were there a lot of people out on the street at the time that this happened?
That's the I guess the point I was trying to make a bit earlier is that there are so few people downtown today you don't have that lunch crowd out there romaine because so many offices are empty so maybe we'll consider that a good thing that farrogate park there that you can see in our shot on Bloomberg TV
was largely empty because normally you've got a big area where buses drop people off there to get on to the metro and you could have you know hundreds of people lining that sidewalk on another day so maybe we'll call that a win so far but you can see the crime tape is up national guard troops
and police around all right so really appreciate your reporting you're going to have much more at 5 p.m. eastern on Bloomberg's balance of power of course we'll continue to fall that on the close as well that is Joe Matthew the co-host of balance of power this is the close on Bloomberg
time now for our top calls the big movers on the backup analyst recommendations and let's start today with auto desk Deutsche Bank upgrading to buy after the software company's earnings calling the quarterly report one of auto desk's cleanest in years so shares up for a second straight day
next in line let's take a look at z scale our JP Morgan modestly adjusting its price target 354 from 351 maintaining an overweight waiting on the cyber security plate despite a revenue forecast the disappointed quite a few investors the analyst says the company's annual
recurring revenues for emerging products still in his view stood out as exceptional the shares though having their worst day since September of 2024 and finally old dominion Rothschild Redburn initiating coverage of the freight operator as a new sale
a hundred and fourteen dollar price target implying a 16 percent decline from current levels with the analyst saying the trucking company we'll see diminishing marginal returns from additional investment partly due to its network service levels and margin profile being closer to maturity nevertheless those shares up for a second straight day
and those are some of our top calls we do want to say in the well I guess travel transportation space if you will and talk a little bit about airlines about 31 million passengers are expected to travel on one of the busiest stretches of the year for this Thanksgiving holiday this is according to industry group airlines of America now this is going to be
the first big test here of our air travel system since all of the disruptions from the government shutdown last month joining us right now to talk a little bit more about this is Sheila Caiolo managing director in equity research at Jeffries covering aerospace defense in airline Sheila great to see you by the way thank you I mean this is like your time to shine
because everyone's so focused on this and as someone who spent the month of october traveling unfortunately all those disruptions is that over with are we people traveling this weekend it's smooth skies or as smooth as they can be shut down and snow didn't have me on a single delay
I will tell you that might be because I know how to choose the routes amount and I hear lines that I find so I was pretty good and that's why I'm here because I'm actually not traveling for Thanksgiving it's the day I'm grounded I think one of the things from TSA expectations is we're only expecting
one percent growth in air traffic for this Thanksgiving weekend versus 2024 those are actually pretty subdued numbers and we have Delta out saying at Bastion the Sea of Delta talking about a five to ten percent reduction in bookings from initial expectations just given the
今年感恩節週末的航空交通量比2024年僅增長1%，這些數字實際上相當平緩，而我們有Delta在Bastion的Sea of Delta談論預訂量比初始預期減少了5%到10%，僅僅是因為
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shutdown people were sort of hesitant to book but so we're actually seeing a little bit of a slowdown and South side will probably have to adjust their Q4 numbers given the shutdown and the impact it had is that directly tied to um to the shutdown or was this kind of bubbling up underneath the surface prior to that I think folks were sort
of hesitant even my travels I was always allowing myself an extra hour or two when booking my travel for December because I wasn't sure when the shutdown would end so I think people were hesitant to book their Thanksgiving trip so we're not actually although the numbers are reaching all-time highs the year over year growth is pretty subdued overall
so it's interesting to hear those comments from at Bastion and I know that Delta is one of the airlines that you do have a buy rating on do you think that you know if you were able to sit in front of the executives of all the other airlines that they would say something similar is that more unique to Delta I think we'll see it across the board to be
honest Delta seeing it primarily in Atlanta they've reduced capacity there but we'll see the trend across all the carriers it's not exclusive to Delta and Sheila I want to get your thoughts on you know a broader look at the airline industry right now because we have a great story on the
terminal right now about Americans bracing for the Thanksgiving rush and it just feels like especially in the last couple of years flying has become such an unpleasant experience it's more of a necessity versus you know something that's viewed as a pleasurable part of the trip that if you
can avoid flying you try to do that and I wonder you know broadly ex-essentially speaking whether you view that as a longer-term risk yeah we've seen airlines cut capacity tremendously for profitability so they've cut those regional routes they've cut
frequency to major airports so overall we're seeing capacity grow 3% even less than death domestically just because airlines want to be more profitable the low-cost carriers continue to put capacity in Florida and the Caribbean and that's where we see price discounting
but on the premium side I think one of the themes for 2026 we're going to watch more carefully and this is something we're doing more work on out of the major network carriers united Delta and American who's going to win that premium race and who's adding the most wide body seats who's adding the most premium seats and how's that going to impact profitability
and who has the bigger leg up that's what I'm interested in they sort of experience of flying and you know how travelers actually get from point A to point B whether or not it makes sense for airlines to invest in making that experience more pleasurable even beyond the the front of the cabin you know extending into economy as well
yeah I think you know Delta has a good example Delta invested $3 billion starting in 2019 in JFK and the buildup of their Delta 1 terminal their lounge and it's part of the entire experience you get through security in your own private line so that means you don't need the extra 30
minutes that you have to brace for maybe with Polaris so airlines are starting even beginning at the airport the premium experience I think in the back of the cabin in the economy cabin the delineation of main cabin premium plus all the different
they're they're pretty much the same I think what you're working on with airlines for consumer experience is on time and efficient aircraft so who has the most news aircraft who has the best cabin experience even in economy and that's why Southwest has completely
changed its experience they're charging for bags now they're putting in flight entertainment they're putting hugs in so they realize they need to keep up well I'm curious how far you can go with this premium experience I mean I know what Sebastian's talking about maybe a little bit different than what Southwest and
some of the others are trying to do sort of the the real premium versus economy premium but is there a limit to how far they can take that I think that they could they continue to expand the envelope and United will have some new business class seats where they'll have a suite they haven't fully announced it yet and I think one of the other things with
premium is also opening up new routes that'll make it easier to go direct to destinations that doesn't necessarily have to be with a wide-body aircraft United opened up five new routes for summer 2026 with 737 maxes so they'll be going to parts of Spain, San Sebastian, a Croatia split and yeah
Edinburgh easy to get to destinations without connecting that might open up a new market and they've dealt with the major airlines they've dealt with all the labor issues that we were talking about earlier this year that's kind of behind them for now with the exception of Air Canada pretty pretty much all the major US carriers have gone through that and even you know Boeing and the
manufacturers are getting through their union negotiations so that's all out of the way but as we think about revenue growth for the airlines the pricing is still deflationary or flat so you're really banking on the premium yeah your revenue growth capacity is only growing 3 percent so if your cost inflation is four to five yeah
you really need that premium to come in and we've seen like a 10-point gap in premium versus main cabin so that's why every time I'm on I continue to harp on how important premium is because without that airlines are not very profitable and tell them to work on their service too I mean it's one thing to charge your premium but you know people got a price what do you
hire with the service a smile like i love silver tread can i wear my pajamas on board how about that some airlines give you free heat i know it's nice pajamas all right she'll agree to get some time with you the golden age katie golden age that's according to of course our transportation secretary
she'll have a wonderful Thanksgiving that is she'll look cayo loot she is managing director in equity research over at jeffrey's covering aerospace defense and airlines neither of us are traveling for no thank goodness i am traveling in the first week of december so i'm interested if my december experience
yeah it's better than your october one i i hope i it can be it can only get only go up from based on what i experienced that day well fingers crossed coming up thanksgiving weekend we'll draw a record number of shoppers according to the national retail federation we'll discuss the impact on retail and holiday spending with nrf's chief
i'm romaine boston and i'm katie grifold of course counting down to the close we're very focused on markets and they're skipping but we're very focused on thanksgiving romaine to your point i like to eat i know and you know thanksgiving that's a big day for people who like to eat yeah it's sort of the centerpiece of the day
it's like you could be a glutton and no one no one actually judges it's fine uh snake meal you eat your whole meal at once you don't need anything else throughout the day anyway let's talk about black friday because we've been following shopping and the trends they're very closely i learned so much about you oh so borris so borris yeah snakes sum up a lot on this
program but anyway it's interesting that you take a look about some of the trends that we're starting to see some of the figures that are coming out there are people taking advantage of these promotions that we're seeing but not necessarily for presence yeah this was a great story that i read this morning and talk about people looking at all these discounts and i'll just use it to stock up on
basically the things i would normally buy all year long so whether it's pet food and household items you know sheets and toiletries and things like that so people are taking advantage of black friday sales but not to give to anybody else apparently yeah that's the thing you take a look at
was household items like dish soap and dishwasher rinse aid that were among the best sellers so that certainly tells you something we also had fresh data out of the national retail federation estimating a record thanksgiving shopping weekend ahead fueling the more than one billion dollars in holiday sales expected for 2025 joining us now to cut through the cross
currents is the national retail federations chief economist mark matthew so we're calling it holiday spending mark but that might only refer really to the time period that the shopping is placed and i wonder what you're seeing when it comes to what people are actually spending their dollars on
yeah so we're expecting a really strong uh showing that this weekend 187 million people which is a record number saying they're coming out and 130 million on on black friday alone so this is uh you know really a confirmation that the bright spot in the economy right now is
and like you said they're spending on many different things that they're not just spending on uh on holiday items what we look back to you know summer uh we know the the consumer is very very into sales right now we we call it very promotional
uh and we've seen that anytime there have been sales consumers have jumped in and bought everything not just uh not just the things that they need like you know back to school they weren't just back buying back to school items they're buying everything and that's why we feel like going into this uh this holiday weekend people are going to be shopping uh
words have told us uh that 60% of them are you know more interested in and in sales uh and more driven by sales this year than they were last year yeah that's what i'm interested in how this period compares to periods prior because people always like sales people like to feel like they're getting a
deal but mark give us a little bit more detail about that comparison yeah so uh what we do know is that if you if you think back to uh you know when we're in the pandemic period we had a lot of people who are very concerned about the economy and we see
the same thing we see very very low sentiment right now and that's manifesting itself not in a reduction in total spend it's manifesting itself in that consumers are are changing the way they're they're spending they're trying to stretch their dollar they're being more careful and they're being a lot you know a lot more focused
on on sales and you know focused on opportunities to you know get the best deal so right now that's the consumer psyche and we also know that you know there are different economies out there right higher incomes are are are spending a lot more they're unaffected and but we do see lower incomes struggling a little bit more
uh but one thing that we have seen throughout the course of the year is that when it comes to spending on family and loved ones the consumers have stepped up mother's day father's day back to school valentine's day all of those events were at or near records for for spending this year
and we should point out mark i mean you guys are basically tracking like real actual payment data if you will or basically cards wipes and things like that so you have a much better read into exactly what people are buying i am curious you ever read into what day those people are buying i know we make such a big deal about black friday itself but i feel like i've been getting
promotions for the last few weeks actually bought a suit a couple weeks ago of you know 30 percent off not bad but i am curious i mean is it still like traditionally that is the biggest day or do you see that maybe further days further out into december end up maybe getting a little bit more action
yeah it's such a great question because we've seen this this change right you'd think back to 15 years ago black friday was about black friday that particular day and being in store and now we've seen the impact spread out so it's not just black friday it's it's the saturday it's sunday it's it's cyber monday as well
so consumers are spreading their dollars but they're also shopping earlier uh so we see a lot of consumers saying that they're shopping a year round uh the one thing that we have seen though is that it used to be that consumers would expect that all the good deals would be on black friday and
that was it that was their one chance we see the consumers now recognize that that may not be their last chance uh that you know yeah you're going to see some great deals on black friday but you might well see deals throughout the rest of the year so we do have some procrastinators that
procrastinators out there like myself who uh who who might still get lucky uh you know december 24th i love it of course you're the procrastinator was i'll always say like it's like the mechanic always has the worst car and the shoe maker that's always the most important issues uh but on that point mark in all seriousness i am curious too just about
uh just sort of other trends too i mean i've seen some reports out by the national retail federation out you're seeing a uptick in people doing uh thrift uh or secondhand types of gifts rather than buying something new and i don't know if that's a cost issue or just maybe people being eco-conscious or whatever is that like a real thing it is real thing we've
seen that number tick up consistently year over year and i think right it's it's a number of different things it is a cost issue but there is also a sense that you know we uh we like the vintage thing more uh you know we and we love the thrill of the hunt you know when when people
talk about you know the internet killing the store uh it's not it hasn't happened it's not gonna happen because people enjoy shopping they enjoy going into the stores and looking for items but i would say that when we ask consumers what they uh wanted most for
the holidays uh the thing that came top of the list was uh was uh cards right so people want uh gift cards uh and i guess that's because no one knows what you want like you you do yourself so zooming out i mean aside from just the holiday shopping period we're talking
about a consumer that's still spending still resilient increasingly choiceful and this is something we were talking about with Michelle Meyer yesterday actually how the interaction with the labor market looks of course we haven't been getting a lot of labor market data but should we see a meaningful downdraft when it comes
to the u.s. uh employment situation mark how does that typically affect the consumer is that something you see happening in 2026 yeah it's fascinating and we have seen unemployment check up a little bit you know we're at 4.4 percent now but you know if i think back to when i was
younger uh we considered 5 percent to be full employment so 4.4 percent historically is still a relatively low number uh you know five and a half percent is is more like the historical average so we're doing okay on that front i do think it's worth mentioning that you know we've seen weakness in the job
numbers uh we haven't seen a lot of job numbers lately but we have seen week ones recently but it's important to recognize that we don't need as many jobs in this economy to keep unemployment level right uh the Fed put out a paper not too long goes and they said the number was around 30,000 new jobs a month
你有看到樂高做了什麼嗎？我們必須讓樂高上場，他們在成年人中也非常受歡迎，包括你自己在內，看起來絕對是這樣。你可以給我一個Lobooboo，順便說一下，它在榜單上排名第四，太棒了。好的，接下來我們要談談Deere，這家公司的股票實際上正經歷自8月以來最糟糕的一天，在一份不盡如人意的財報後，我們將在“Stock at the Hour”節目中深入探討，接下來就是這個節目，你正在收看“On the Close”，我是Clover。好的，歡迎回到“On the Close”，現在是我們的“Stock at the Hour”時間，
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to keep unemployment uh at a flat rate two years ago that was 250,000 so we needed a lot more jobs then to keep the economy running long smoothly we need a little bit less now all right mark really uh fascinating stuff great to get you on mark matthews there the chief economist over at the
national retail federation projecting a relatively decent holiday shopping season katie grad field i was also looking at the some other data that the NRF put out on the toys the most popular toys you know what the most popular toys are i couldn't even begin to guess there well you should guess because
they're basically the toys that were probably popular when you were a kid when i was a kid phoenix legos barbie hot wheels doll just a generic doll you know i don't know who that kid is but i was actually recently looking at a gift guide because i have no idea what to get my husband and yeah there's a lot of folks recommending legos for adult i don't think i'll get him there yes that's the whole thing
have you seen what lego did we have to get lego on they've made a whole push on yeah well apparently they're super popular even among adults including yourself it seems like it is absolutely you can give me one of those lobooboo is on the list by the way number four wonderful there you go all right coming up we're going to talk about deer those shares down actually having the worst
你有看到樂高的動態嗎？我們必須讓樂高上節目，他們在成人市場，包括你自己，推出了一整個系列，看起來非常受歡迎。絕對的，你可以給我一個樂高，樂高在我的清單上，排名第四，太棒了。好的，接下來我們要談談Deere，這家公司的股票今天下跌，實際上是自八月以來表現最差的一天，在一個不盡如人意的財報後，我們將在「Stock at the Hour」中深入探討，接下來請繼續收看「On the Close」，我是Clover。好的，歡迎回到「On the Close」，現在是我們的「Stock at the Hour」時間。
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day since august after a lackluster earnings report a deeper dive is part of our stock at the hour that's up next you're on the close i'm clover all right welcome back to the close it's time now for our stock at the hour and
we're focusing in on deer the share is down more than 5 percent the worst one day drop for the stock since at least late august this after the tractor maker's forecast for 2026 misestimates the outlook suggests difficulty in predicting a recovery in the u.s. farm economy due to tariff turmoil joining
us right now is bailey lip show to helps covers markets for us here at bloomberg all right so is this really about tariffs or is it about something broader it's about tariffs it's also about kind of the uncertainty around the farmer farming ecosystem so how confident are people to invest and i think that's the big question when you look at
the entire industrial ecosystem is whether it's deer whether it's caterpillar how much conviction do these companies and these individuals have that they're going to be able to either afford reinvesting in these goods when we're talking about a time where seeds are more expensive and everything's more expensive and will they actually see the ROI at the end of the day
an ugly print management's talking about 2026 being the bottom of this large ag cycle so whether or not that proves to be prudent remains to be seen but it is an uncertain time and it's going to be an interesting reporting stretch for companies that are really are catering to
consumers catering to companies yeah it's interesting too to stack up caterpillar versus deer because you take a look at just their year-to-day performance caterpillar up 60 percent on a total return basis deer for example only up about 12.6 percent which is you know certainly better than a lot of
folks are faring right now but i do wonder i mean what explains that divergence because i would imagine the same sort of macroeconomic factors affect both companies but i think that when you look at a caterpillar you do have kind of the tailwinds for infrastructure so the ability for some of those bigger products to be
sold to companies whereas deer for the most part is catering to individual farmers and people really actually kind of working the land as opposed to caterpillar which has offerings that are similar but does have kind of a different lever to pull when you're looking at whether it's kind of just reinvesting in infrastructure yeah and yeah and deer
好的，伙計們，這是今天的節目結束，我們的跨平台廣播、電視、YouTube、Bloomberg Originals，祝大家有一個愉快和安全的感恩節假期，我們中的一些人將在週五見面，當然，交易將在假日會議後恢復，Katie Romaine在Bloomberg TV的「On the Close」中結束，Tim和我將在Bloomberg Radio的「Bloomberg Business Week Daily」中與大家見面。好的，繼續關注我們，在「On the Close」中還有更多內容，黑色星期五即將到來，今天特別關注零售業，Kathryn Black，Karnie的合夥人，將在稍後加入我們，這是Bloomberg的「On the Close」，我們想去。
34:02
is a little bit of a different company but i'm so little surprised because i thought deer got a lot of their business from overseas as well so that even if u.s. farmers were hurting there was still a decent market for them and in Asia and Europe and other places but you're still dealing with what the tariff impact ultimately looks like and so when i look at the JP morgan
analyst basically saying normalizing for tariff impact it implies sheriffs could shares could settle around 460 in the near term we're 471 so if you're a wall street analyst who does have a neutral rating but you're talking about this sitting right around where it is when investors even when we're pulling back from AI want to put money to work not great all right paly great report i like a
分析師基本上表示，在調整關稅影響後，暗示 Sheriffs 的股價可能在短期內穩定在 460 附近，而目前是 471。所以，如果你是一位持中立評級的華爾街分析師，但你談論的是這支股票在投資者即使從 AI 回撤也想投資時，可能會停留在當前價位附近，這並不理想。好的，Paly，很棒的報告，我喜歡。
34:38
tractor actually maybe that's is that your christmas gift i mean i always kind of wanted one i have no i have no practical use for it a lego tractor perhaps no i want a real one actually all right well where did you park it not any anywhere i want you would do a whole and then put the tractor in it paly lipsholds great
reporting as always that is our bloomberg's bailey lipshold have a great thanksgiving now coming up we're going to take you to the closing belt with jeff blasek he is a multi-asset co-chief investment officer over at new burger berman that conversation up next this is the
close just about 10 minutes away from the end of the trading day and really katie grifield we could really call it the end of the month really i mean we have one more trading session but that's basically a half day on black friday or volume is usually rock bottom uh for of the year but you look at the turnaround here in the mark is not just for today but really
over the past four days and at least on the s&p 500 it's now a race almost all of the losses that it had yeah for the month of november yeah it's pretty fascinating i will see if we do get to that break even point i will say you talk about rock bottom volume on friday uh today could also take the cake too because you can look at the uh trading
volume right now 25 percent below the 30 day average i you know suppose that's not surprising but still the spine that you're seeing not necessarily on the back of really heavy volumes the nazak 100 leading big tech the uh small caps really outperforming here up about 1.2 percent we've heard a lot of bullish
這很有趣，你談到那些表現優異的小型股，不僅在 Russell 指數中，我們還談到了標準普爾等權重指數和道瓊運輸指數等。我猜在理論上，這應該是一個好的信號，表明即使不包括一些最大和最重的權重股，這次反彈也可能會繼續。現在加入我們，幫助我們倒數到收盤鐘聲的是 Jeff Blazik，Newburger Vermin 的多資產聯合首席投資官。Jeff，很高興見到你。我也很高興來到這裡。我想談談我們在過去幾周看到的情況，因為是的，這是一次拋售，但我們也看到了一次相當顯著的輪動。首先，我們談到醫療保健領漲，很多可選消費和必需消費股也有了表現的機會。
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cases for small caps we'll see if those pay off in the new year as well on bitcoin not quite above 90 thousand dollars a coin but getting close yeah and it's interesting too you talk about those small caps that outperform it's not only in the rustle but we talked about the equal weight s&p equal weight index and doubt transports and all that and i guess
在過去幾周，我很好奇你對此的看法，這是否預示著什麼？我們是否應該從中解讀出什麼？好的，我認為最能預示的是基本面獲勝。因此，當我們看到醫療保健股在 11 月的表現相當顯著時，這是由健康的有機增長趨勢或重大的藥物推出等因素推動的。因此，基本面獲勝越多，我們作為股票挑選者就越高興。我還想強調你所提到的輪動，即非盈利 AI 投機交易已經處於困境。這種輪動，我們將拭目以待。
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in theory that should be a good sign here for a continuation of the rally even if it doesn't include some of the biggest and heaviest weightiest names joining this right now to help us count you down to those closing bales is jeff blazik multi-asset co-chief investment officer at new burger vermin jeff great to see you here good to be here i do want to talk about
但 AI 是一個巨大的主題，我認為現在它將分化成許多不同的微觀主題。當你提到必需消費品時，可能是因為我們看到 AI 滲透到它們的運營中，因為它們開始收穫一些改進的效率。好的，讓我們談談這個 AI 交易的想法，我的意思是，我們即將迎來 ChatGPT 向公眾發布的官方三週年紀念日，在過去三年裡，幾乎都是關於芯片股和視頻的。
36:46
kind of what we saw over the last few weeks because yes it was a sell-off but we also saw a pretty significant rotation so first i mean we talk about health care sort of leading the charge a lot of a consumer discretionary and consumer staples names of really sort of getting their time to shine over the
但我們看到 Alphabet 和許多其他公司開始受到關注，但當我們談到用例時，我們將開始看到公司談論生產力改進、成本節省等。你對此有信心嗎？好的，我們將看到他們談論這些，但 KPI 將非常難以衡量。這些不會是 SEC 文件能夠提供給我們的量化數據，因此將有很多聽取管理團隊的說法，最終你必須從盈利能力和你看到的趨勢中觀察到這一點。關於 AI 的另一件事，我只想說，將會有越來越多的二分法。
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past few weeks and i'm curious as to what you think of that is that indicative of something should we be reading something into that well i think the the thing that's best indicative of is fundamentals win and so when we look at the health care out performance which is quite notable in the month of uh... november it's being driven by healthy organic growth trends or meaningful developments
on promising pharmaceutical launches things like that so the more the fundamentals win the more we are happy as stock pickers yeah i would also highlight the rotation that you're looting to which is uh... you know the non profitable ai speculative trade has been on on the ropes uh... that rotation we will wait
and see but ai is a mega theme i think it's over now it's going to bolt out into a lot of different directions in terms of micro themes and some of this rotation when you mention staples might be the fact that we're seeing ai permeate into their operations as they begin to harvest
好的，我會說我們有黃色警告，而不是紅色警告。因此，我們 Newburger 的股票分析師一直在跨部門進行大量工作，不僅與芯片，不僅與超大規模公司，還在研究軟件公司，研究商業服務，因為你可以開始圍繞誰在 AI 方面處於更好的位置，誰可能處於不利位置，整合一些主題。
37:54
some improved efficiencies well let's get to this idea of kind of where we are in this ai trade i mean we're coming up uh... in a few days here on the basically what is the official three-year anniversary of chat gpt being unleashed to the public here and it for the last three years pretty much been about more or less chip socks and more or less in video
例如，軟件公司越嵌入基礎設施或數據分析，這些股票通常表現更好。那些純粹的軟件即服務公司可能更脆弱，因為最終用戶可能會說，我現在可以用 AI 做這個，不需要付錢給你。好的，讓我們談談這個 AI 交易的想法，我的意思是，我們即將迎來 ChatGPT 向公眾發布的官方三週年紀念日，在過去三年裡，幾乎都是關於芯片股和視頻的。
38:10
but we've seen alphabet we've seen a lot of other names now start to get some shine but when we talk about the use cases we're going to start to see companies talk about productivity improvements cost savings things like that you're confident of that well we're going to we're going to see them talk about it the kpi is
但我們看到 Alphabet 和許多其他公司開始受到關注，但當我們談到用例時，我們將開始看到公司談論生產力改進、成本節省等。你對此有信心嗎？好的，我們將看到他們談論這些，但 KPI 將非常難以衡量。這些不會是 SEC 文件能夠提供給我們的量化數據，因此將有很多聽取管理團隊的說法，最終你必須從盈利能力和你看到的趨勢中觀察到這一點。關於 AI 的另一件事，我只想說，將會有越來越多的二分法。
38:25
going to be really tough to measure these are not going to be the sort of thing that scc filings will be able to give us quant data that's output so it's going to be a lot of hearing what the management team say ultimately you have to observe it in the profitability and the trends that you're seeing from that the other thing i'll just say from ai is there's going to be growing dichotomies
this is not going to be a blunt beta basket anymore those dichotomies are going to be things like macro and micro so macro the fact that productivity is surging in the u.s and micro the bottom up drivers it's going to be a dichotomy of winners and losers and to us the the wrong term to use for this phenomenon is bubble
bubble sounds like a everyone wins or everyone loses sort of mentality it's going to be a lot more granular in terms of how to place out and it's now an equity and debt story on top of all that so a lot more dimensions to it well a lot to dig into there i want to talk about the fact that there's going to be winners and losers because it feels like a lot of folks have been
好的，我會說我們有黃色警告，而不是紅色警告。因此，我們 Newburger 的股票分析師一直在跨部門進行大量工作，不僅與芯片，不僅與超大規模公司，還在研究軟件公司，研究商業服務，因為你可以開始圍繞誰在 AI 方面處於更好的位置，誰可能處於不利位置，整合一些主題。
39:20
focusing a lot of their attention on identifying the winners trying to figure out who is going to be the disruptor what about the people and the companies being disrupted is it too soon to really have a good sense of who might fall into that basket well i'd say we have yellow flags not red flags on that and so our equity
例如，軟件公司越嵌入基礎設施或數據分析，這些股票通常表現更好。那些純粹的軟件即服務公司可能更脆弱，因為最終用戶可能會說，我現在可以用 AI 做這個，不需要付錢給你。好的，讓我們談談這個 AI 交易的想法，我的意思是，我們即將迎來 ChatGPT 向公眾發布的官方三週年紀念日，在過去三年裡，幾乎都是關於芯片股和視頻的。
39:40
analyst at new burger have been doing a lot of work cross sectors so not only with chips not only with the hyperscalers but looking at software companies looking at business services because you can start to grab some themes together around who is better positioned from ai
但我們看到 Alphabet 和許多其他公司開始受到關注，但當我們談到用例時，我們將開始看到公司談論生產力改進、成本節省等。你對此有信心嗎？好的，我們將看到他們談論這些，但 KPI 將非常難以衡量。這些不會是 SEC 文件能夠提供給我們的量化數據，因此將有很多聽取管理團隊的說法，最終你必須從盈利能力和你看到的趨勢中觀察到這一點。關於 AI 的另一件事，我只想說，將會有越來越多的二分法。
39:57
and who might be poorly positioned so the more for example software companies are embedded in the infrastructure or data analytics those stocks generally are doing better those that are pure play software as a service where they might be more vulnerable where uh the end user may say i can do this in ai now i don't need to pay you
這不再是一個笨拙的貝塔籃子，這些二分法將是宏觀和微觀的，例如宏觀層面，生產力在美國正在飆升，微觀層面，自下而上的驅動因素。這將是一個贏家和輸家的二分法，對我們來說，用於描述這種現象的錯誤術語是泡沫。泡沫聽起來像是一種所有人都贏或所有人都輸的心態，這將是更細緻的，在如何分配方面，這現在是一個股票和債務的故事，除此之外還有很多維度。好的，有很多需要深入探討的地方。我想談談將會有贏家和輸家的事實，因為感覺很多人一直在專注於識別贏家，試圖找出誰將是顛覆者，那些被顛覆的人和公司呢？現在就確定誰可能落入這個籃子還為時過早嗎？好的，我會說我們有黃色警告，而不是紅色警告。因此，我們 Newburger 的股票分析師一直在跨部門進行大量工作，不僅與芯片，不僅與超大規模公司，還在研究軟件公司，研究商業服務，因為你可以開始圍繞誰在 AI 方面處於更好的位置，誰可能處於不利位置，整合一些主題。例如，軟件公司越嵌入基礎設施或數據分析，這些股票通常表現更好。那些純粹的軟件即服務公司可能更脆弱，因為最終用戶可能會說，我現在可以用 AI 做這個，不需要付錢給你。好的，讓我們談談這個 AI 交易的想法，我的意思是，我們即將迎來 ChatGPT 向公眾發布的官方三週年紀念日，在過去三年裡，幾乎都是關於芯片股和視頻的。但我們看到 Alphabet 和許多其他公司開始受到關注，但當我們談到用例時，我們將開始看到公司談論生產力改進、成本節省等。你對此有信心嗎？好的，我們將看到他們談論這些，但 KPI 將非常難以衡量。這些不會是 SEC 文件能夠提供給我們的量化數據，因此將有很多聽取管理團隊的說法，最終你必須從盈利能力和你看到的趨勢中觀察到這一點。關於 AI 的另一件事，我只想說，將會有越來越多的二分法。這不再是一個笨拙的貝塔籃子，這些二分法將是宏觀和微觀的，例如宏觀層面，生產力在美國正在飆升，微觀層面，自下而上的驅動因素。這將是一個贏家和輸家的二分法，對我們來說，用於描述這種現象的錯誤術語是泡沫。泡沫聽起來像是一種所有人都贏或所有人都輸的心態，這將是更細緻的，在如何分配方面，這現在是一個股票和債務的故事，除此之外還有很多維度。好的，有很多需要深入探討的地方。我想談談將會有贏家和輸家的事實，因為感覺很多人一直在專注於識別贏家，試圖找出誰將是顛覆者，那些被顛覆的人和公司呢？現在就確定誰可能落入這個籃子還為時過早嗎？好的，我會說我們有黃色警告，而不是紅色警告。因此，我們 Newburger 的股票分析師一直在跨部門進行大量工作，不僅與芯片，不僅與超大規模公司，還在研究軟件公司，研究商業服務，因為你可以開始圍繞誰在 AI 方面處於更好的位置，誰可能處於不利位置，整合一些主題。
40:16
this recurring revenue stream anymore those companies at least in the equity price performance have been selling off now technically they're still growing maybe they're seeing a deceleration and the growth rate but that's the yellow flag i'm pointing at it's not a red flag but i do think it's a cautionary tale of how this could play out
well let's talk about the other point you made too that this is not only just an equity story this is a debt story as well we've seen a lot of these big tech companies really hitting the bond markets hard to issue debt and uh there have been some concerns bubbling up especially when you take a look at what's going on with oracle but
when you look at that that trend more broadly the fact that big tech is hitting the bond markets how does that change if at all how you think about the equity investments in those companies it's a dramatic change in terms of how this plays out so first of all we have to use a new term not return on equity
return on invested capital to acknowledge the broad capital stack that is now aligned and investing in ai in one form or another whether you're a debt holder or an equity holder it changes the equity story too because a lot of these companies that have had net cash on their balance sheet
for years and we're actually earning interest income we'll see that that that'll fall it'll invert and become interest expense and so it's going to be a new driver of net operating margin and so that's another game changer as well it raises the stakes and ultimately uh you know i think we do observe some of those
lesser capitalized companies that don't have as much operating cash flow as they would like they're now at the fulcrum as we would call it so we look at the credit default swaps of some of these weaker balance sheets still investment grade but weaker balance sheets and they are now becoming more of a
an expression of the ai trade from a credit standpoint all right jeff always great to have you jeff blasic they're a multi-asset co-chief investment officer and new burger berman now we do need to get back to some breaking news out of washington dc those two national guardsmen that we told you about a little bit earlier that
have been shot in washington dc we've now confirmed that both members have died this is according to the west virginia governor patrick morsey those national guardsmen were part of west virginia's a national guard deployment to the nation's capital you can see the scene there that is in downtown washington just a few blocks
from the white house the treasury building basically the downtown area an area very very immune to violent crime we've got a statement out of the president we're awaiting film more official statements from government officials about what exactly transpired here but based on what west virginia governor patrick morsey
同時，接近收盤鐘聲，布隆伯格全面的跨平台報導美國市場收盤即將開始，現在距離交易日結束還有兩分鐘。
42:48
is saying that both of the two national guardsmen that were shot have now died and we have heard from vice president jd advanced speaking from an event in kentucky saying we still don't know the motive there's a lot that we haven't figured out yet so we will continue to fall this story closely here meanwhile moving closer to the closing bell
right here the closing bell bloomberg's comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the u.s market close starts right now and right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day
romaine bostic here with katie grifel we're taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast joining us right now is carol masser and ten centivic in the radio booth welcome to our audiences across all of our bloomberg platforms including our partnership with youtube as we count you down to the closing bell is just about a minute
and a half to go and we are going to focus on the markets here for just a bit here carol as we see a pretty sizable rally on our hands to close out the month of november yeah kind of interesting to see what is happening in the trade this week and even you know as maybe there's some uh i don't know light volume and so on and so
forth ahead of the holiday season here and thanksgiving holiday it does feel like investors some optimism and a lot of it probably has to do with expectations that indeed we get another cut by the federal reserve that meeting uh the fomc meeting just a few weeks away now tim offer best levels of the day for
the s&p 500 and interestingly enough earlier in the session it was more broad based we saw more than four stocks in the s&p 500 higher for every one stock that was lower but now we're seeing 372 higher and 129 in the s&p 500 lower right now and really what a rally we've seen this
week alone probably not a lot of volume backing that up but still as romaine pointed out earlier when it comes to the month of november the s&p 500 getting closer and closer to erasing those losses uh this is the last full trading day of november but we do have that half-day session
coming up on friday we should also point out a lot of the key technical uh levels that were really under pressure just last week uh apparently at least for the s&p and the mass that gets survived that test now closing back above some of those intermediate moving averages here on this wednesday afternoon green across the
screen for the most of the major indices here in the us including the dow Jones industrial average higher by more than 300 points or six tenths of one percent we'll call it seven tenths of one percent to be precise the similar move on a percentage basis for the s&p 500 higher the mass that composite up about eight tenths of a percent and you had relative uh marginal i guess uh keeping pace here
the rustle 2000 up about eight tenths of one percent here to close out the day it had been up more than one percent but seeing a little bit of profit taking into the close all right i'm going to go back to the big caps the s&p 500 um we did see uh few more names higher earlier in the session overall
right now though the s&p finishing with again um as we said but uh about 360 names in that index higher uh at the close 142 to the downside katie one unchanged but again we saw more than i think 400 names uh gaining earlier in the session yeah and you saw
pretty good breath when it comes to the sector performance as well as you can see on the screen information technology was your biggest gainer on the day in terms of points contribution followed by financials consumer discretionary and consumer staples in terms of what didn't exactly perform on this wednesday health care falling a bit and communication
services down about half a percent a lot of that decline came down to alphabet giving back some of the gains that we've seen that stock enjoy over the past couple days i mean occasionally has to give back i mean what is it up like almost 70 percent this year what goes up what goes up two sides to every trade hey let's get to some of the individual gainers if i may i'm going to
stop gainer in the s&p 500 this one finishing up 5.8 percent on the day the company reported earnings late last night it did raise its full year forecast analyst noting growth in ai server shipments as a highlight due to sustained demand for machines needed in the current data center
boom so just let me throw some numbers at you del booking 12.3 billion of ai server orders on the fiscal third quarter uh that ended october 31st it shipped 5.6 billion worth of the servers and ended the quarter with a backlog of 18.4 billion the company raised shipment projections
for the year to 25 billion from 20 billion so some outperformance there let's go to the retailers one in particular because we've seen their earnings coming out over the last couple of weeks urban outfitters finishing the day with the gain of more than 13 percent the owner of anthropology
最後來看Robinhood Markets，該股上漲約11%，是標普500指數中今日的最大漲幅股。該公司宣布與Susquehanna International共同收購LedgerX的多數股權，LedgerX是一家總部位於美國的衍生品交易所，曾由FTX擁有，現由Miami International Holdings經營。這項交易將使這些公司能夠進入預測市場，這是我們在2025年經常討論的話題。順帶一提，Robinhood Markets今年迄今已上漲約235%，表現相當不錯。
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and free people uh following positive reports from uh Abercrombie and also GAP we got uh that's some of their peers so we also heard some upbeat stuff from them shares of urban outfitters jumping uh the company reported net sales for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate stock by the way it's up roughly 40 percent year today but about 15 percent of the
float is short JP Morgan and Barclays both raising their price targets on that stock and i'm going to finish up with robin hood markets um that stock up about 11 percent it's the number one gainer in the s&p 500 today company announced that it and sus quahana international buying a
majority stake in ledger x that's a us based derivatives exchange once owned by ftx now run by miami international holdings uh the deal giving the companies access to the prediction markets which is something we've talked about a lot here in 2025 by the way robin hood markets it is up
about 235 percent year to date quite a run okay uh well if you'd predicted that i would you decline next you would be correct uh the starting with john dear uh deer in company down 5.7 percent the company's weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting recovery in us farm economy due to uncertainty over the impact of tariffs and trade deals
the company's forecast for 2026 net income of 4 to 4.75 billion dollars miss the average bloomberg estimate and would be a drop from the 5.027 billion reported for the year just ended once again shares of deer down 5.7 percent also taking a look at uh alphabet ink a g o o g l
down 1.1 percent it was actually on a point space is the biggest ecliner in the s&p 500 today those that company uh those shares giving back a bit of the recent rally just to put this recent rally into context it's up 15 percent just since november 11th it's up 34 percent since september and up just roughly 70 percent so far this year uh given back a little bit of that rally
Joe Mathieu是Balance of Power的聯合主持人，他位於我們在華盛頓特區的辦公室，距離犯罪現場僅幾個街區。Joe，我們已經從西弗吉尼亞州州長那裡得到了確認，這兩名國民警衛隊成員已經喪生，我們還知道什麼？
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down 1.1 percent today and finally z scalar down 13 percent falling the most going back to september of 2024 so in more than a year this after the company forecast annual revenue that came in only slightly above estimates investors certainly wanted to see more romaine all right let's check
in on yields here kind of a weird day here your 10 year yield has been sort of straddling in the line on that 4 percent level looks like it's going to settle just below that you saw yields on the longer end the curve also move lower including the 20 and 30 year though a slight uptick in yields on the two year yield up about two basis points despite the fact that when you
look at pricing in the fed funds futures market you now have most traders now anticipating or at least betting on about a 90 percent chance right now that we're going to get a rate cut a 25 percent point rate cut at the feds meeting on december 9th and 10th yeah man how that has changed since
the last fed meeting and what we've heard from j powell all right guys that is a wrap our cross platform radio tv youtube bloomberg originals have a good and safe uh thanksgiving holiday and some of us will see you on friday when of course trading resumes shirt and holiday session uh katie romaine finishing there on uh the clothes on bloomberg tv and tim and i right here on bloomberg business
上次聯邦會議和我們從J Powell那裡聽到的消息以來，這已經發生了很大變化。好的，伙計們，這是今天的節目結束，我們的跨平台廣播、電視、YouTube、Bloomberg Originals，祝大家有一個愉快和安全的感恩節假期，我們中的一些人將在週五見面，當然，交易將在假日會議後恢復，Katie Romaine在Bloomberg TV的「On the Close」中結束，Tim和我將在Bloomberg Radio的「Bloomberg Business Week Daily」中與大家見面。好的，繼續關注我們，在「On the Close」中還有更多內容，黑色星期五即將到來，今天特別關注零售業，Kathryn Black，Karnie的合夥人，將在稍後加入我們，這是Bloomberg的「On the Close」，我們想去。
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week daily on bloomberg radio all right stick with us a lot more coming up here on the clothes with black friday up ahead a special focus today on the retail sector kathryn black partner over at karnie going to be joining us in just a bit this is the clothes on bloomberg we want to go
週日在Bloomberg Radio的「Bloomberg Business Week Daily」。好的，繼續關注我們，在「On the Close」中還有更多內容，黑色星期五即將到來，今天特別關注零售業，Kathryn Black，Karnie的合夥人，將在稍後加入我們，這是Bloomberg的「On the Close」，我們想去。
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back to that breaking news out of washington dc two members of the national guard have died in the shooting just blocks from the white house this is according to west virginia governor patrick morrissey there's still a lot of details that we don't know and we're still awaiting for more confirmation as to exactly what transpired this afternoon down there in
washington joe matthew is a co-host of balance of power he's there at our offices in washington dc which are just a few blocks away from that crime scene and joe we've gotten confirmation from the west virginia governor uh about these two national guardsman that they have died what more do we know
well it certainly reminds us as well that these national guard troops who have been deployed to various american cities including our capital are coming from all different areas in the country which is why it takes the west virginia governor to confirm this terrible news as patrick morrissey
writes it's with great sorrow we confirm both members of the west virginia national guard shot earlier today have passed away from their injuries this would have been news apparently to the vice president himself jd vance was speaking moments before at for campbell in kentucky and uh suggested that they were hospitalized as the president did is well in his truth social post we just saw a post
as well romaine from the treasury secretary remembering this is at 17th and i streets just about a block north of the white house which is of course next door to the treasury department and that was in lockdown for some time uh before an arrest was made best at writing the national
guard has been working around the clock to keep washington dc safe and their presence has made a real positive difference referring to this deployment romaine that was very controversial and in fact was found to be illegal in a federal court that ruling is being appealed as these young
men and women walk the streets of washington in the name of fighting crime in many cases finding themselves picking up trash in parks like farrogate where they uh were located when this happened there's a lot that we don't know though whether they were targeted or whether something greater was happening when this took place romaine we're waiting for details on all of that
and president donald trump uh posted on social media that the suspect was quote severely wounded and will quote pay a very steep price let's talk a little bit more about the deployment because they were deployed in washington in august as i understand it joe uh their deployment was
recently ruled illegal by a federal judge but they didn't necessarily have to vacate immediately after that ruling that's correct it was a deployment that began uh with great controversy in august and ended up being one that was somewhat embraced by the mayor of washington dc
mariel bowser with a president actually complimented in her announcement just this week for plans uh to not run for re-election but of course the president has tried this in a lot of different cities around the country to different ends washington is special because it is the capital
city the federal city that gives the president much more leeway to deploy troops in this way and even in that circumstance to your point katie was found to be illegal uh that will be appealed and is in the process of being appealed but as we walk around our streets here in washington
dc this thanksgiving holiday you will still see some small collections of national guard troops walking around many of them have been sent to that very area where the shootings are placed all right joe appreciate your reporting uh joe matthew will have much more at five p.m. eastern on bloomberg's balance of power we will continue to follow this story on the close and bring you
updates as we have them this is bloomberg welcome back to the close a fourth straight day of gains for the major u.s. equity indices including the s&p 500 but closed up seven tenths of one percent
but you actually saw some pretty uh significant strength coming out of the cyclical space when it comes to small caps mid caps and some of those more economically sensitive sectors they really kept pace and in fact to some to agree outperform the Dow Jones transportation average of eight tenths of a percent here on the day but of course tech still shining a big bump up here in the s&p
500 tech index up about 1.3 percent but that did not match what we saw in the mag seven which shows some significant rotation within the tech sector gold getting a bit something we haven't talked about you know well now around that forty one hundred level here and you see the phyllite
500科技指數上漲約1.3%，但這並不及我們在“七巨頭”中看到的顯著輪動。黃金有一些動作，我們還沒有談論過，現在約在4100水平，你可以看到Phyllite F U黃金和白銀指數，該指數追蹤礦業股，當天上漲了5%。凱蒂，好的，讓我們看看這個星期三一些個股的表現。我先從羅賓漢開始，收盤上漲近11%，是自9月底以來的最佳表現。這裡的消息是該公司宣布收購Ledger X的大部分股權，這是一家美國面向衍生品交易所
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f u gold and silver index with tracks the miners was up five percent on the day katie all right let's take a look at some of the individual equities moving on this wednesday i want to start with robin hood uh closing up nearly eleven percent best day since late september the news here is that the company announced it's buying a majority stake in ledger x that is a u.s. face derivatives exchange
alongside sus guahana alphabet we've been talking a lot about what a big run alphabet has been on cooling a little bit today down about one percent and then dear we were talking about this with valy lip shots a little bit earlier reporting earnings and not exactly impressing deer shares
falling five point seven percent on the day meanwhile we're drawing closer to the holiday retail rush recent data showing consumer spending per person on gifts food and other seasonal items dipping this holiday period with shoppers anticipating higher prices from tariffs
meanwhile we have analysts over at city saying that black friday is quote given too much attention with the post-criss christmas week becoming more important to most retailers katherine black she is partner at global management consulting firm carney where she leads mass market
retail katherine great to see you in person here so we've been talking about the creep of black friday now you know it's weeks long at this point and i wonder if you agree with that analysis over from city group that as it's sort of expanded and crept that maybe it's not as important as
it used to be well look consumers tell us that this big sales are still very important but you're absolutely right they are staggered it's not all say one day like it used to be and that comment about post-christmas is interesting because consumers definitely want gift cards you
heard that from nrf earlier but also that's what people plan to give it's the second most popular thing people are planning to shop for as a gift to others so that does drive post-christmas spending i don't know that it's more important this year because i also think consumers are going
to stop either going to run out they're going to hit a budget number and think i've spent too much and that's one thing we're really hearing from consumers this year is they're going to spend but they may not get the extra thing that they would have gotten in the past that is such a fascinating point that that burst of shopping activity that we see after the gift-giving holidays
is maybe due to the fact that people are giving gift cards increasingly and i wonder what's driving that behavior that uptick in basically giving gift cards okay my personal opinion is i think we live in an incredibly personalized society you know we've we've been personalizing for over
a decade now consumers want specifically what they want and the gift givers in their life know that and the easiest way to manage that is through a gift card it's what people ask for and it's oftentimes the easy solution is by a gift card you know they get what they want you
don't have to worry about sizes or returns yeah but you know but also i thought it was supposed to be the thought you're supposed to be the people the gift cards i mean i know i'm guilty i'm a teenager i do i do so yes i trust me i'm guilty of it too i'm a hypocrite but but but it also
gets to this idea too when we start to talk about i see all these numbers battered around from and riaph from adobe and others basically suggesting that we're going to see an uptick but that's not inflation adjusted right so my question is are we truly spending more this year than in past past years yeah i mean i mean on a unit's basis uh i i think we we might
see some slight growth in that but definitely i think inflation is a part of the big numbers that you're seeing and there are a lot of mixed trends this year we started off with tariffs which hike up pricing we just came out of the largest government longest government shutdown in history which will absolutely have an impact when i talk to retailers who are concentrated in that
sector they say we felt that we felt that for by a few percentage points but consumers do want to spend and so i think it's going to be a really uneven spending throughout the season one thing last christmas season last holiday season a year ago it seemed retailers held the line a little bit
on some of the discounts i mean they didn't go hog wild yeah i'm hearing a lot different heading into the season and one of our columnists uh who's just fantastic in covering this basically says that if you see a 25 30 discount today or this by friday wait because it'll probably be 40 50 maybe even more in the next couple of weeks is that does that sound plausible to you
i think if consumers don't come out and spend big uh than that absolutely maybe plausible you always run the risk i don't think there's a lot of backup inventory especially on hotter items so i think retailers will turn to that strategy if they need to declare the inventory by christmas and that's another thing with those gift cards is what inventory will be left at the
end of the season that's a good point um but they have to manage that closely yeah and i'd love to get your thoughts on basically uh another trend that we've seen emerge great reporting uh out on the terminal when it comes to bloomberg news basically that folks are using this promotional period of
time to stock up on household necessities when it comes to dishwashers when it comes dishwasher fluid that is pet food and the like and i wonder if you're seeing any of that that people are increasing their spending right now in this period but not necessarily on gift buying yeah there's
definitely still gift buying going on but consumers do like to spend on themselves and you're right a lot of it is on more essentials or maybe a slightly more premium version of an essential when it goes on sale the biggest and most consistent theme that i've heard from consumers really for
months now is they want to be savvy shoppers they are looking for deals and the proportion of consumers who consider themselves deal hunters is higher than i've actually ever seen it uh in my career it's at an all-time high and so i think when consumers see sales particularly on something
they know they need they feel good about buying it then if they're buying something they don't necessarily need um or it's not a gift that they have a particular person and need in mind for i think that comes with at this particular moment a different psychological factor for them and
they're less willing to shell out unless they're doing really well economically well it's the psychology of it that i find really interesting because if you have that shopper who is bargain hunting does that lead to a situation where retailers are always offering some form of a promotion of a sale and as such it kind of loses its meaning you know i think the the smartest
retailers are doing a really personalized version of what you just said which is finding the promotions that will draw a shopper to them and hopefully getting them to buy some of their other items while they're there that's a pretty historical retail strategy but we still see a lot of big
sales and not highly personalized i think the smart retailers are personalizing more to capture on that so Catherine this gets to this idea though where does this go kind of into next year because we came into this or this holiday season concerned about the state of the consumer
concerned about their not just willingness to spend but their capacity to spend here is there carried through i mean traditionally is there carried through out of the holiday season well as as pointed out by city we do see some of that gift card spend yeah but you know going into next year we're going to start to lap some much bigger inflation numbers and that starts to
get much harder to sustain as well and just the pure sales numbers consumers i think will continue to spend but they're cautious there's only about a third that say they think they're going to be better off next year than they are this year and so i think consumers are adjusting as they
go through the year and they're making real-time decisions on how they're going to spend yeah one to watch carefully yeah i mean one to watch and it also gets to this idea too is how retailers capitalize on this you know i mean we talk to these retailers a lot and they always talk about okay yeah we're getting people into the store during how everyone wants to kind of be
around but how do you keep those people you know through the year particularly for discretion more discretionary items and things like that and do you see them have these stores and these companies have a strategy to try to do that well look the best one's absolutely the best one is and we know that retailers really grow when they can capture more from their best customers
and get more people enticed in their offer and the fastest way to grow is really through catering to those customers that you're gaining and sticking with them throughout so that's absolutely a strategy in their marketing and how they assort for their store yeah it's going to be interesting
because consumer habits are changing rapidly and so it's one to continue watch but we are seeing also too a lot of e-commerce growth right and it's much easier to do that tailoring in an e-commerce environment than it is in an in-store environment so i think we will continue to see more of that
well Catherine that's what i've been wondering about you know how people are actually shopping whether you know when we talk about Black Friday we're talking about people still actually physically lining up going to the mall and going into stores or whether this activity has primarily shifted online at this point well i think most of the growth is coming through online there will always be a
segment of consumers who are going to go into stores and shop and in our research back in September about 15 percent of consumers said i'm going to do more of my shopping in-store this year the vast majority we're planning to grow through e-commerce or not make much of a change at all so that's the real shift that we're seeing but there will always be some level of store traffic and i
bet we all know somebody who absolutely loves a Black Friday sale and they love the the rush of it and going into a physical store and so that persists just maybe not in as big of numbers all right Catherine have to leave it there Catherine Black partner at global management
consulting firm Carney all right meanwhile let's take a look at how markets closed on this Wednesday the last full trading day of November we have that half-day session coming up on Friday we'll see if that's going to be good enough to push the S&P 500 into positive territory into
the month of November the S&P 500 finishing up about seven tenths of a percent higher that was led in a big way by big tech you saw the NASDAQ 100 finish nine tenths of a percent higher we know that alphabet gave back some of its gains today but still the overall sector really enjoying
a pop on this Wednesday meanwhile bitcoin also catching a bid romaine and it looks like we are above $90,000 a coin all right meanwhile we want to get back to that breaking news west Virginia's governor now saying he's received conflicting reports on the condition of the two national
guard members shot in DC balance of power co-host Joe Matthew joins us now so Joe we know this is a fluid situation details are flying around and what do we know so far that has been confirmed well it's all again coming from the governor of west Virginia it's your point Patrick Morrissey
back on twitter to say we are now receiving conflicting reports about the condition of our two guard members who were shot only about a block away from the White House just a couple of hours now maybe less than that actually 17th and i streets if you know the grid in downtown Washington DC near Farrogate Park the governor writing our prayers are with these brave service
members their families in the entire guard community having already heard from president Trump who tweeted about their condition at two separate hospitals he mentioned we know that there was a helicopter that took off had the land take off from the national mall which is also very close
to that location so we're not going to speculate on anything we are just simply reporting on what we're hearing from the administration and from the governor of west Virginia and we are standing by this is important for a news briefing on the ground right near where the shooting took place Farrogate so that will be the official word here from authorities who have been scrambling to get
their arms around what happened Joe i know we can't speculate about what happened but i am curious about what the potential response to all this will be once we do sort of get the real details and we have time to digest what happened we spoke with you a little bit earlier
on this program you talked about how unusual it was to have national guard troops deployed in Washington DC during peacetime and we know the president has made it very clear that he sees a role for national guard troops not just in DC but in other cities as well to fight what he calls
domestic crime that's correct and he did refer to the safety on the streets of Washington DC in a truth social post just a short time ago saying that it is now a safe city one that had been riddled with crime but of course that was an argument to begin with knowing that crime rates
had been falling here in Washington but the president had leeway here in the federal city to deploy troops ruled to be illegal in their deployment by a federal court but a much different prospect than sending them for instance to Chicago or to New York romaine or as we've seen cities like New Orleans and Memphis so this is something that's been in the air in Washington for some time we're
used to the site of seeing national guard troops walking the streets they had been armed for a period of time and they're going to be here while this case is being appealed the wrinkle that this brings to the story though is an important one romaine and we'll be deeply curious to hear what we hear from authorities all right Joe really appreciate your reporting stay close by that
is balance of power co-hosts Joe Matthew this is the close on Bloomberg while the busiest Thanksgiving weekend on record for air travel will follow the longest government
shutdown in history you throw in a cold snap and thunderstorms shaping up to be a challenging weekend for air travel providers joining us to discuss the pressures facing the airlines and their employees Sarah Nelson she is international president of the association of flight attendants Sarah really great to have you with us we've been talking about this from the traveler's perspective
and really the narrative has been travelers bracing for this weekend given all the disruptions we've seen when it comes to the airline industry give us the perspective from where you're sitting when it comes to the folks who are actually staffing those airplanes well thanks so much katie and first
of all i'd just like to recognize the crews and the workers in the airport who are away from their families this holiday to make sure that other people can get to their families we are thinking first and foremost about safety and security when you see delays or cancellations that is typically
simply because it's unsafe to go or it's unsafe to go at that time so we are we want the travel traveling public to know that we're here to help you along your way but you there's some things that you can do to help yourselves too check on your flight before you leave home give yourself
plenty of time when you come to the airport pack your bag from an empty bag so that you're not accidentally putting any prohibited items in that bag carry an empty water bottle that you can fill up at the water stations and a protein bar in case you're not able to get food or
uh you're on an extended delay and look up from your phone and make eye contact with the crew when you get on board we're always looking for helpers we are uh understaffed and many of the flight crews are not getting paid during that boarding time but we're trying to make contact with you
and look for our helpers and um have crammed airplanes get off the ground safely and land so that you can get to your loved ones well let's talk about that little a little bit more when it comes to staffing because we heard from uh FAA administrator brian bedford saying that when it
comes to air traffic controllers that uh the towers are adequately staffed when it comes to the holidays what about when it comes to flight attendants what two staffing levels look like right now people should know that the airlines are staffing at FAA minimums so while we may have
enough staffing levels to make up if there's a delayed flight having a standby flight attendant able to take that flight um those things are in place uh but if we get into a place where we've got storms added on top of this and the delays cascade sometimes the crew that you're waiting
for is working a flight that is sitting out on the tarmac or hasn't landed yet we're not in place yet to get on your flight so it's not as though uh people are not already at work trying to trying to fill those staffing roles when there's a real backup of cancellation and delays that
means that crews get out of position to be able to work the next flight too what what kind of changes are made sera typically around these uh holiday weekends or at least the weekends where we do see a huge uptick in travel like thanksgiving a christmas etc usually there is an effort to
provide uh overtime pay or incentive pay for people to pick up additional flying especially if there's a storm that rolls in you run into a situation where in a lot of our contracts we we have negotiated that management can have sort of an emergency pay put in place where people may decide you know
it's not worth it to be away from my family if i'm making my regular pay but maybe if i make a little bit more i'll head out there um we also typically try to negotiate holiday pay so that people are actually getting paid more but you know this is difficult when we've got half of our contracts in place and half that are not um people are not making really a living wage to come to work and
and it's hard to incentivize people when it's also very very difficult work um you have people who are not used to traveling so there's a lot more questions there's a lot more confusion there's a lot more for the crews to do it's a very very um labor intensive time for the people on the front
lines well that's what i'm curious about sarah as far as like new entrance coming in and this is just purely my own own anecdotes i travel a lot and i've taken note of the age of a lot of the a flight attendance i see and i do wonder and that's not a dis on anybody but i do wonder about how many new or younger people are coming into this industry relative to maybe when you
were starting out uh we've had seen a lot of hiring since covid so you have a lot of people who are just starting out on the career and you're right when when you have seasoned flight attendance who have been through these holidays and and have that experience under their belt
uh a lot of times uh they'll know what to expect and sort of prepare for that but you know i we we have uh we have really really well trained flight attendance who are also experts in de-escalation and the amount of people who come through in the conflicts that can exist when you
這真的可能是一場災難。機組人員非常專業地讓人們保持冷靜，很少有航班會出現在晚間新聞中。
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have humanity jam-packed together also with a narrative in this country that were divided um that is really a recipe for a disaster and flight attendance really expertly keep people calm keep people calm down and it's it's very few flights that end up on the evening news yeah i
am curious just thinking a little bit more long-term sarah uh we heard from us Sean Duffy the transportation administrator the other day give an interview on another network talking about kind of uh reigniting the golden age of air travel i think we're both too young to really remember that but it sort of harkens back to this apparently time where you know it was sort of a luxury
experience do you think the air travel is going to go back in that direction or is it going to be more of a balance between those folks who do want a premium experience and those folks who quite frankly just want a rock bottom price to get from point a to point b well let's make it really clear the golden age of air travel was not accessible to everyone in america it was usually you know
我們可以談論當時更寬敞的空間和在過道上切烤肉的情景，我可以整天談論那個時代的榮耀，
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it was a lot of men it was a lot of white men and it was um a very sexist time for flight attendance um and so you know i i well we can think about um the more space that we had and the roast that we used to carve in the aisle and i can i can talk about all day long about all of the glory of that
time but but what we also aren't talking about is the accessibility air travel is way more accessible today um many more people traveling um our skies look like our nation looks um and so do flight attendance and other crew members and other people working in these jobs um so there's some things
that i wouldn't necessarily want to return to uh now the staffing and the space and the ability to take care of people um we all would love to see that but uh but there you know air travel is really about bringing people together and this is about practicing solidarity and it just doesn't work
if it's not inclusive and today air travel is extremely inclusive and that that means that you know we've got to handle a lot of things flight tents usually are at the tip of the spear of anything social or political happening in this country we see it and the more that we can lift up from our
leaders this idea of treating each other with kindness and coming to the airport with solidarity in your heart more safe and efficient air travel is going to be yeah absolutely well said Sarah have a wonderful Thanksgiving we'll catch up with you soon i'm sure Sarah Nelson international
president of the association of flight attendance when we come back here on the program we're going to turn our attention to the movie business specifically Warner Brothers Discovery the deadline for bids to buy out that company well that is next week we're going to talk a little bit more about
派拉蒙試圖收購整個公司，而康卡斯特和Netflix似乎只對電影和電視業務感興趣，這使得局勢變得更加複雜。隨著截止日期臨近，一些決定必須要做出。David Joyce現加入我們，他是Seaport Research Partners的高級分析師。David，首先讓我們談談這個軟性截止日期，儘管如此，Zaslov希望在下週看到一個明確的報價。你期望會發生什麼？
1:16:09
that when we come back after the break this is the close on floor all right let's talk about Warner Brothers the company said to be making a bold move asking
other media giants bidding on its business to sweeten their offers adding fuel to the ongoing battle between Paramount Comcast and Netflix Paramount making a play for the whole company Comcast and Netflix apparently are only interested in just the film and tv side really complicating where
things go but as deadlines loom some decisions have to be made David Joyce joins us right now he's a senior analyst at seaport research partners and David first let's start off with these uh i guess it's kind of a soft deadline but nevertheless a zaz love wants to see something on the table firmly on the table by next week what are you expecting yeah this would be the second round of
bids we think that all of them have to really you know step up further it really to get the board to need to believe that there's value there versus you know versus the you know the the separation put me a path that they've set so we we think that the the board would probably be most
like would probably like a full offer rather than just for part of the company that really depends on the value ascribed to it because you know the you know the studios and streamer side is clearly what all of the entities are and interested in Paramount plus skydance presumably once the whole
thing which would be easier for the board to to say yes i believe but um but it really depends on you know the value that comes in for the studios and streamers side but then you have to think of what happens to the value of the of the cable networks if it is still left on its own well that's what
Warner Brothers is willing to split that off and set meaning selling off that streaming side and leaving the broadcast side out on its own do you think there would be a taker for the broadcast business or cable business there wouldn't need to be really i i think it could be a global
consolidation vehicle there you know the the the ceo of that uh uh uh uh uh none of being fella has done a great job as a cfo uh at Warner Brothers has done a lot of cost cutting so it would be a synergy play but i think there also could be uh you know in some you know kind of
global lift of uh of viewership if they can you know apply some new sort of a programming strategy but it would be but i think you need to have the concept of discovery global being more than just
a us uh the cord cutting uh you challenged asset because there are some parts of the globe that are not uh losing subset to the degree you're seeing in the us and there are areas where advertising is growing so that that is the benefit of having a global platform so that
that should be part of the the thought process and david do you cover you know a bunch of the names that are involved here when it comes to the different bidders and of course the company itself who do you think Warner Brothers discovery actually belongs with who would be the best
steward in your opinion well it seems like a lot of industry participants uh have the opinion that uh paramount skydance would probably be uh the most uh you know the most likely
suitor the most constructive suitor because they have had some uh you some work together in the david elison and skydance in terms of how uh he engages with the talent community and that's
very important here um netflix as historically has been pretty vocally uh against the uh the studio business in terms of theatrical releases and that's probably not going to sit too well uh with the
board and the uh and the in the Warner Brothers history uh but uh yes and they would really need to to change their tune on that and then for Comcast uh they're probably in the least uh financially advantageous position uh given on how how their their stock has new performed uh in
好的，看到結果如何會很有趣，David，很高興有時間與你交流，這是David Joyce，他是Seaport Research Partners的高級分析師，繼續關注華納兄弟的競標戰，讓我們請來Alicia Reese，她是Wedbush Securities的股票研究高級副總裁，她負責覆蓋其中一位競標者，即Netflix。
1:20:28
the past year or so based on their broadband business uh but this could be a little bit more existential for them they they might really need to do something creative maybe bring in a third party um you know because they're still subscale on the peacock side and at the same time they've they're also trying to spin off their their cable network so they're they're interesting
dynamics for each of these three but it seems like the industry participants would probably be more uh more enamored with a paramount skydance fool offer and uh for that offer you know uh it apparently those bids those offers has run have run as high as twenty three dollars and fifty
cents a share you take a look at where uh shares closed today just under twenty four dollars the company is said to uh want thirty dollars a share in terms of value here David do you think that that's realistic in this situation it's possible I think that uh the base case in my mind for a
每股幾美分，你來看看公司股價今天收盤價略低於24美元，據說公司希望每股價值達到30美元，David，你覺得這在這種情況下現實嗎？我認為有可能，我覺得在我的心目中，交易的基本情況是至少需要27美元，但真的取決於這些公司在確定這些資產在其旗下有多必要時有多積極，所以我認為有可能達到30美元的水平，我並不一定對此抱有太大期望，但我認為你確實需要有東西顯著高於最近的派拉蒙Skydance出價的23.50美元，好的，看到結果如何會很有趣，David，很高興有時間與你交流，這是David Joyce，他是Seaport Research Partners的高級分析師，繼續關注華納兄弟的競標戰，讓我們請來Alicia Reese，她是Wedbush Securities的股票研究高級副總裁，她負責覆蓋其中一位競標者，即Netflix。
1:21:24
transaction would be that it needs to be done at least twenty seven dollars but uh it really depends on you know how how aggressive these uh firms get in in determining just how necessary these assets would be uh under their umbrellas so I think it is possible that that you could get
當你考慮Netflix目前的業務狀況時，這是一場他們應該試圖贏得的競標戰嗎？我認為他們不需要，我認為這對Netflix來說是一個“nice to have”而不是“must-have”，他們有大量內容，他們有全球足跡，全球訂閱者，他們正以合理的方式涉足體育，不太昂貴，但保持與事件同步，他們有能力將某些已經受歡迎的內容輕度投放到戲院，不依賴戲院上映來獲得受歡迎程度。另一方面，如果他們贏得這次競標，我預計他們會在戲院方面對來自華納兄弟的內容更加積極。
1:21:43
to the thirty level um I'm not necessarily holding my breath for it but I think that's uh you do need to have something significantly above uh where the recent paramount skydance bid was at twenty three fifty all right it'll be uh fascinating to see how it shakes out David great to get some time
你來看看Bloomberg新聞報導，Netflix顯然對華納兄弟的電影和電視庫最感興趣，不一定有興趣購買整個公司，從戰略上講，你認為這有意義嗎？是的，他們不想要任何傳統媒體，他們是一家科技公司，他們在選擇的媒體方面做得非常好，他們喜歡在國際上採購，並通過他們的整個全球足跡傳播，這很合理，沒有理由倒退，特別是當人們繼續剪線的時候，在國際上，他們仍然沒有那麼多的剪線廣告，這是一個公平的觀點，是的，但人們通常已經有Netflix了，所以再次，這是一個“nice to have”。
1:22:00
with you that is David Joyce he is senior analyst over at seaport research partners and sticking with the Warner Brothers bidding wars let's bring in Alicia Reese she is senior vice president of equity research over at wed bush securities she covers one of the suitors and that is netflix
and you know when you think about netflix where the business stands right now is this a bidding war that they should try to win in your view I don't think they need to I think it's a nice to have not a must-have for netflix they have so much content they have a global footprint um global
subscribers and they have um they're dipping into sports in a in a reasonable way not terribly expensive but um you know keeping with events and they have you know some content that they're able to dip into theatrical in in in a light way as they uh you know put certain things on on the
screen that have already become popular not relying on the theatrical release to become popular on the other hand if they do win this bid I do expect them to be significantly more theatrical forward with um you know the the content that would come from from Warner Brothers
on the theatrical side and you take a look at Bloomberg news reporting netflix apparently most industry in Warner Brothers film and tv library not necessarily interested in buying the whole company here strategically do you think that that makes sense yeah they don't want any legacy
media they're they're a tech company and they've done really well with the media that they've chosen they like to procure um internationally and you know spread it through their entire global footprint it makes a lot of sense you know there's no reason to go backward especially as people continue
to cord cut um you know and into the point that you know internationally they're still you know not as much cord cutting advertising as growing that's that's a fair point yeah but people you know generally do have netflix already um and so again it's it's an yeah you know nice to have
I'm sorry Alicia I have to interrupt here Alicia Reese over at Wed Bush Securities we have to go back down to Washington DC right now where we're hearing from I believe the FBI director about that shooting of two national guardsmen really here today is exceptional we will work together collaboratively because this is a matter of national security because this is a matter of pride
President Trump has been informed we've been in contact with the White House we will bear we will shortchange the American public with no resources to make sure we find and safeguard our nation's capital right here in Washington DC and bring anyone responsible for this heinous
act of violence to justice I would lastly like to add to the American public in the world please send your prayers to those brave warriors who are in critical condition and their families they are here serving our country they are here protecting everyday Americans and citizens around the world
in our nation's capital they are the heroes of this day and we must remember them on this day and everyday and their families and the sacrifice they have made I will now turn it over to Chief Carroll the Metropolitan Police Department thank you Good afternoon everyone my name is Jeff Carroll I'm the executive assistant chief here at the
Metropolitan Police Department at approximately 215 this afternoon members of the DC National Guard we're on high visibility patrols in the area of 17th and i-street northwest when a suspect came around the corner raised his arm with a firearm and discharged at the National Guard members
the National Guard members there were other members that were in the area they were able to after some back and forth able to subdue the individual and bring them in the custody within moments members of law enforcement in the area were also able to assist and bring that individual into custody at this time as the director mentioned the National Guard members are being treated at
a local hospital DC Fire and EMS response is seen to provide law for state for those individuals and transport to a local hospital the suspect in this case was also transported for treatment at a local hospital and a mayor thank you I'm Muriel Bowser I'm the mayor of Washington DC and
I too want to send my thoughts and prayers to the families of the guardsmen and to the guardsmen who are in critical condition in a local hospital I am joined by members and leadership from the
DC National Guard from the West Virginia National Guard United States Secret Service Deputy Mayor Pia Fire Chief Donnelly in Metro's General Manager Randy Clark and we join with the FBI Director
in ensuring that MPD investigates the U.S. Attorney Prosecutes this case to the fullest extent of the law. I've had the opportunity to breathe U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi who was speaking to the president when I called as well as the United States Attorney
Piero who assured me that this case will have her offices complete attention. Mayor was there any other suspect? Chief. Sure so now at this time there was no indication there was any other suspect the one suspect that was involved this incident they were shot during the interaction and they
were transported to the hospital for treatment. Mayor is this validating the needs of the National Guard here in DC? What we know Andrea is that this is a target at shooting one individual who appears to target these guardsmen that individual has been taken into custody.
Mayor can you tell us about any more details on the condition of the two National Guard and whether or not anyone else was injured and a quick question follow up for the FBI Director who said that we'll make sure we find the perpetrators for this act so just to clarify
the person believed to be responsible is in custody and there are no other suspects.
相信是負責的人已被拘留，且沒有其他嫌疑人。
1:27:52
Sure so I can start out again Chief Carol from MPD. So both the individuals the guard members they are in critical condition in local hospital this time being treated. At this point we have no other suspects we have reviewed video from the area it appears like I said to be a lone gunman that raised the firearm and ambushed these members of the National Guard and he was
quickly taken into custody by other National Guard members in law enforcement members.
其他國民警衛隊成員和執法人員迅速拘留。
1:28:15
No at this time obviously we're very in the preliminary stages investigation you know there's a lot of things a lot of agents that are here from various federal agencies law enforcement agencies we have the full power of the FBI and our federal partners here on the task force so we're looking at all those different aspects but we don't have any motive. The National Guard's men armed sir.
The National Guard's men that were shot I'm told they were armed. Did they get off jocks?
我聽說被槍擊的國民警衛隊成員有武裝。他們有開槍嗎？
1:28:36
At this time that's part of the preliminary investigation. We only have the suspects we let happen.
目前這是初步調查的一部分。我們只有嫌疑人，讓我們看看發生了什麼。
1:28:43
Sure so how the suspect was apprehended as I said the individual that suspect came around the corner he immediately started firing a firearm at the two National Guard members so at that time there were other National Guard members that were in the area they heard the gunfire they actually were able to intervene and to kind of hold down the suspect after he had been shot on the ground
until law enforcement got there within moments. At this point we're still investigating exactly who shot the individual it's not clear at this time. We don't know kind of weapon there was DC police it happened right in front of the metro although there is no indication that the perpetrator
was on the metro so there's metro transit police in the area and obviously being on 17th street by the White House uniformed Division of Secret Service were in the immediate area as well.
在地鐵上，因此地鐵交通警察在該地區，顯然在17街附近的白宮，特勤局的制服部門也在附近。
1:29:28
We do not know at this time. We're going to be able to take a couple more.
我們目前還不知道。我們將能夠再回答幾個問題。
1:29:38
Sure again so as I said we're very preliminary in the investigation so we're looking to all aspects of who the individual is his connections at this time he's still in the hospital receiving treatment. And I would just like to hang out I would just like to add the reason that this suspect is in the reason that this suspect is in custody is because of the bravery of the men
and women of the National Guard who responded due to their extensive training to secure American lives today there was not any further injury and any further shootings we should highlight the fact that the men and women of law enforcement the interagency the Department of War and the National
Guard executed their training with great precision today and prevented an even greater tragedy from befalling us these National Guardsmen are heroes and we must pray for their safety and their speedy recovery and as the chief said we are in the preliminary stages of this investigation we will
run down every single lead every piece of evidence this is the power of the US government at its best at the state local and federal level that is why this interagency group is standing behind us to ensure America and the world that we will continue to keep DC safe and thankfully we have Metropolitan
Police Department the National Guardsmen and federal agents and the Department of Justice and Attorney General willing to prosecute the mission to keep American safe and President Trump has rightly stated that this heinous act will be investigated and he is thanks the National
Guardsmen and women and the men and women of law enforcement. Thank you. The suspect say anything at the time. Why do the West Virginia governor's state of Asia chief was anyone else shot? When we just watched the press conference there with officials in Washington DC an update
on those two National Guardsmen that were shot earlier today at around 2 15 p.m. Washington time according to Jeff Carroll the executive assistant chief of specialized operations for the Metropolitan Police Department that is the local police department that oversees the streets of Washington DC he
said a suspect came around the corner at 17th and I street raises arm with a weapon of some sort and discharge at multiple members of the National Guard at least two of those members were shot they were taken to the hospital and according to Jeff Carroll as well as to the mayor of Washington DC
mural of Bauer they are in critical condition in the local hospital at this stage and Katie Greifield he also talked about how in his words this does appear to be a lone gunman and that at least for right now there does not appear to be any other suspects he did say that that suspect
was subdued by other members of the National Guard and he is also that suspect I should say we don't know the person's gender is now in the hospital as well being treated for that person's injuries and we did hear from the mayor of DC that it looks that this was a targeted shooting
when it comes to a potential motivation we don't necessarily have that but again the mayor of DC saying that this did appear to be targeted but of course one of the main headlines coming out of that presser was that the National Guard members are in critical condition I mean and we should just point as a clarification we did report earlier some commentary from the
West Virginia governor but you heard here just a few moments ago from the main police officer overseeing this investigation in Washington DC Cash Patel the FBI director and the mayor of Washington DC saying that those two members are in the hospital in critical condition balance of powers coming up next
