00:02
[Music] It has been a very volatile week.
[音樂] 這是非常震盪的一週。
00:10
These tariffs have come in way higher than even our worst case scenario.
這些關稅的實施幅度甚至高於我們最悲觀的預期情境。
00:14
This is potentially recession now.
這現在潛在可能導致經濟衰退。
00:15
If these tariffs remain in place, we're talking about double digit downsides.
如果這些關稅持續存在，我們將面臨兩位數的下行空間。
00:18
Even if tariffs weren't an issue right now, there were plenty of economists that
即使關稅現在不是問題，仍有許多經濟學家
00:21
were still concerned that the inflation genie hadn't been put back in the bottle.
仍擔心通膨這隻妖怪並未被收回瓶子裡。
00:25
That is a deadly combination, right?
這是一個致命的組合，對吧？
00:27
Slowing growth uh and inflation ticking up.
經濟增長放緩，而通膨卻在攀升。
00:29
I have sensed this bearish sentiment on the rise.
我感覺到這種看空情緒正在上升。
00:32
The animal spirits that we all were kind of counting on to keep the stock market
我們原本寄望能支撐股市
00:36
going and consumers going is kind of fizzled away here.
和消費者的「動物精神」，似乎已在這裡消散殆盡。
00:41
We could see sentiment push us into a recession.
我們可能會看到這種情緒將我們推向經濟衰退。
00:44
We have been in the process of destroying the American brand.
我們一直在破壞美國品牌。
00:47
The rest of the world is watching mistake after mistake be made.
世界各地正目睹一個接一個的錯誤被犯下。
00:49
This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Pharaoh, Lisa Abramowitz, and An Marie Hordern.
這是彭博監測（Bloomberg Surveillance），由 Jonathan Pharaoh、Lisa Abramowitz 和 An Marie Hordern 主持。
00:56
Live from New York City this evening.
今晚現場直播自紐約市。
00:58
Good evening.
晚上好。
00:59
Good evening from our audience worldwide.
向全世界的聽眾朋友們道晚安。
01:01
A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance starts right now.
彭博監測特別節目現在開始。
01:03
Closing out the week as one rose garden speech upends financial markets worldwide.
隨著一場玫瑰園演說顛覆了全球金融市場，本週交易即將劃下句點。
01:09
This is liberation day.
這是解放日。
01:13
I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs.
我將簽署一項歷史性的行政命令，實施對等關稅。
01:19
China 67%.
中國 67%。
01:20
We're going to be charging a discounted reciprocal tariff of 34%.
我們將收取 34% 的折扣對等關稅。
01:24
European Union, they're very tough.
歐盟，他們非常強硬。
01:26
We're going to charge them 20%.
我們將向他們收取 20%。
01:28
In Taiwan, we're going to charge them 32%.
在台灣，我們將向他們收取 32%。
01:31
Japan, we're charging them 24%.
日本，我們向他們收取 24%。
01:33
We will impose a 25% tariff on all foreignade automobiles.
我們將對所有外國製汽車課徵 25% 的關稅。
01:38
We will establish a minimum baseline tariff of 10%.
我們將建立 10% 的最低基準關稅。
01:40
Promises made, promises kept.
說到做到。
01:42
Those words sparking a $5 trillion equity market sell off in just two trading sessions.
這些言論在短短兩個交易日內引發了 5 兆美元的股票市場拋售。
01:48
As some countries gear up to retaliate, others are hoping to negotiate.
隨著一些國家準備報復，其他國家則希望進行談判。
01:52
The fact is the countries are angry and retaliating.
事實是各國感到憤怒並正在報復。
01:56
And by the way, coming to the table, I I got a report from the USR last night that more than
順便一提，關於坐上談判桌這件事，我昨晚收到 USR 的報告，超過
02:00
50 countries have reached out to the president to begin a negotiation.
50 個國家已聯繫總統，希望開始談判。
02:04
Uh but they're doing that because they understand that they bear a lot of the
嗯，他們這樣做是因為他們明白自己背負了大部分的
02:08
The policy volatility leading some major downgrades across Wall Street.
這項政策波動導致華爾街出現一些重大的評級下調。
02:12
The Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, striking a defiant tone.
財政部長 Scott Besson 採取了強硬的態度。
02:19
I I I see no reason that we have to price in a recession.
我看不出有任何理由必須將經濟衰退納入定價考量。
02:22
I reject that the uh assumption.
我反對這個假設。
02:25
I there doesn't have to be a recession.
不一定非得發生經濟衰退。
02:28
The you know who knows how the market is going to react the in in a day and a week.
誰知道市場在一天或一週內會如何反應。
02:34
What we are looking at is building the long-term economic fundamentals for prosperity that I think
我們關注的是為繁榮奠定長期經濟基礎，我認為
02:39
the previous administration had put us on a course toward financial calamity.
前任政府讓我們走上了一條通往金融災難的道路。
02:44
And so this weekend the White House isn't blinking, calling it an economic revolution that we will win.
因此，本週末白宮沒有退縮，稱之為我們必將贏得的經濟革命。
02:51
President Trump's message heading into a brand new training week.
這是川普總統在全新交易週開始前傳達的訊息。
02:54
his message.
他的訊息。
02:55
And hang tough means to the rest of Wall Street there are probably more losses ahead because right now it is hard to
「堅持住」意味著對華爾街的其他人來說，可能還有更多損失在前方，因為目前很難
02:55
Hang tough.
堅持住。
03:01
understand what the potential offramp could be.
理解潛在的退場途徑會是什麼。
03:04
Last two yet last week we saw two-day losses that were among the five biggest in the past century among the
上週我們見證了兩天的跌幅，這是一個世紀以來跌幅最大的五個交易日之一，
03:10
three biggest of the past 50 years.
也是五十年來跌幅最大的三個交易日之一。
03:15
More than 10% on the NASDAQ uh on the S&P 500 as well as the Russell 2000.
那斯達克指數、標普500指數以及羅素2000指數均下跌超過10%。
03:19
Steuart Kaiser said, "We remain very cautious.
斯圖爾特·凱撒表示：「我們仍保持非常謹慎。
03:20
Scenarios of S&P in the mid 4,000s are not unreasonable." Number one question on Wall Street going into a brand new
標普指數落在4000多點中段的情景並非不合理。」這是全新交易週開始前，
03:26
trading week.
華爾街最關心的第一個問題。
03:28
Is this the beginning of a negotiation or are these the new rules of the game?
這是一場談判的開始，還是遊戲規則已經改變？
03:31
And we're still trying to answer that question following the commentary from the administration over
在政府發表評論後，我們仍在試圖回答這個問題。
03:35
the weekend.
週末。
03:37
This is a shock to the cycle without doubt.
這無疑是對經濟週期的一次衝擊。
03:40
It takes time to fully internalize whether this is a shock to the system.
要完全消化這是否是對系統的衝擊需要時間。
03:43
That's going to take a while.
這需要一段時間。
03:44
The sell-off so far has been pretty orderly.
目前的拋售相當有序。
03:46
So, you go through those numbers, they sound huge, but so far orderly.
所以，你看這些數字，它們聽起來很龐大，但目前為止是有序的。
03:49
We're trying to figure out if the sell-off goes into a new phase, a disorderly phase, reminiscent of the
我們正試圖弄清楚拋售是否會進入一個新階段，一個混亂的階段，讓人想起疫情時期，
03:54
pandemic, where you move into a situation where you sell what you can and not what you want.
你會進入一種情況，就是賣掉你能賣的，而不是你想賣的。
04:00
I took a look at history when it came to the pandemic.
我回顧了疫情時期的歷史。
04:03
On March 3rd, the Federal Reserve came out with a sort of circuit breaker, cutting
3月3日，聯準會推出了一種熔斷機制，在任何聯準會會議之外，
04:05
rates outside of any kind of Fed meeting by half a percentage point.
將利率下調了0.5個百分點。
04:10
The biggest cut going back to 2008 wasn't enough.
這是自2008年以來最大的降幅，但這還不夠。
04:12
Then the markets continued to sell off and what ended up happening was that treasuries were selling off at the same
接著市場持續拋售，最終發生的是，公債也在同時遭到拋售。
04:17
And so on March 15th on a Sunday ahead of a week where they were supposed to meet, they came out and they cut
於是在3月15日，星期天，在他們原定要開會的那一週之前，他們出來宣布
04:21
rates to zero in order to create order.
將利率降至零，以創造秩序。
04:24
Right now, Fed Chair Jay Powell is not coming out there to be that circuit breaker.
目前，聯準會主席鮑爾並沒有出來扮演那個熔斷機制的角色。
04:28
President Trump is not going out there to be that circuit breaker.
總統川普也沒有出來當那個熔斷機制。
04:33
It is a highstakes game of chicken and markets are wondering what is the
這是一場高風險的懦夫博弈，市場正在思考
04:35
It's never good when we're here on a Sunday, is it?
我們在星期日來到這裡，情況從來都不妙，對吧？
04:38
Equities start trading in about 55 minutes time.
股市將在約55分鐘後開始交易。
04:42
Coming up this hour, Muhammad Al Erin of Queens College Cambridge, Libby Cantrol of
本小時節目將包括：劍橋大學皇后學院的 Muhammad Al Erin、
04:44
Pimco on the Trump administration's next move, and Neil Dutter of Renmack on why Fed chair J Pal isn't blinking.
Pimco 的 Libby Cantrol 談論川普政府的下一步行動，以及 Renmack 的 Neil Dutter 解釋為何聯準會主席鮑爾不願讓步。
04:51
We begin this hour bracing for another big week ahead.
本小時節目開始，我們為即將到來的又一個重大週做準備。
04:52
Blindberg's Danny Burgerer joins us now from the wall with your road map for this evening.
Blindberg 的 Danny Burgerer 現在從華爾街為您帶來今晚的路線圖。
04:56
Hey Danny.
嘿，Danny。
04:56
This is what the next few hours for this market are going to look like.
未來幾小時市場將會是這樣發展。
04:57
Hey John.
嘿，John。
05:01
First, we already have FX open and running.
首先，外匯市場已經開盤並運行。
05:03
That's been for the past couple hours.
這種情況已經持續了幾個小時。
05:05
It is a story much like Friday, unlike Thursday, one of a stronger dollar.
情況很像週五，但與週四不同，美元走強是主要特徵。
05:08
Are we finally on the other side of that dollar smile?
我們終於度過了美元微笑曲線的另一端嗎？
05:09
The next stop for this market will be in an hour's time.
市場的下一個焦點將在一個小時後出現。
05:13
John, this is when we get the real read on just how riskoff this market might be going into Monday
John，這正是我們能真正看清市場在週一晚上6點
05:18
local time here in New York.
當地時間在紐約
05:19
We'll get US equity futures and oil opening.
會有多避險的時刻。
05:22
The read on oil negative so far with what's happening in Middle Eastern stocks and Saudi downgrading their price
我們將看到美國股價期貨和原油開盤。
05:27
for oil.
目前對油價的解讀是負面的，因為中東股市的表現以及沙烏地阿拉伯下調了其油價。
05:28
We'll also get Treasury futures and spot gold prices for a read on your havens.
我們還將獲取美國國債期貨和現貨黃金價格，以觀察避險資產的狀況。
05:33
Some more cash assets to open in two hours after that at 8:00 PM about.
再過兩小時，大約晚上8點左右，會有更多現金資產開盤。
05:37
This is about approximate time here.
這裡的時間是大約的時間。
05:39
We're going to get cash treasuries, cash Japanese government bonds, too.
我們將會看到現金美國國債、現金日本政府債券。
05:44
The London Metal Exchange will also open.
倫敦金屬交易所也將開盤。
05:45
But the one to really look at into the open for Monday is when Chinese equities open.
但週一真正需要關注的開盤時間是中國股市開盤。
05:51
9:15 p.m.
晚上9點15分。
05:53
We will get a read on Chinese equities.
我們將能觀察中國股市的反應。
05:56
Recall this market was closed for a holiday on Friday when they announced reciprocal tariffs of
請記住，這個市場在週五因假日休市，而他們在當天宣布了34%的對等關稅。
06:01
So, it could be an ugly trade when that opens.
所以，當它開盤時，交易狀況可能會很糟糕。
06:04
John Danny, thank you.
John Danny，謝謝你。
06:06
More from Danny in about 24 minutes time.
大約24分鐘後會有Danny的更多報導。
06:07
to extend the conversation.
以延續對話。
06:08
Joining us now from the nation's capital, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall.
現在加入我們的是來自國家首都的彭博社記者 Tyler Kendall。
06:11
Tyler, welcome to the program.
Tyler，歡迎來到節目。
06:11
Good evening to you.
晚上好。
06:13
We're all trying to figure out the answer to the same question.
我們都在試圖找出同一個問題的答案。
06:16
Is this the start of a negotiation or are these the new rules?
這是談判的開始，還是這些就是新的規則？
06:20
Hey, good evening, John.
嘿，晚安，約翰。
06:22
Well, the White House officials confirmed this morning that more than 50 countries have
嗯，白宮官員今早證實，已有超過50個國家
06:25
reached out to the US to negotiate, and the question is whether or not will they engage in those negotiations.
主動聯繫美國進行談判，問題在於美國是否會參與這些談判。
06:32
A person familiar with the matter tells Bloomberg News that at the moment, President Trump
一位知情人士向彭博新聞社透露，目前川普總統
06:34
is focused on the long term.
正專注於長期規劃。
06:37
And we saw that uh echoed in his rhetoric from over the weekend.
我們在上週末的言論中也看到了這一點。
06:39
Take a post on Truth Social yesterday, for example, where he said he claimed that businesses aren't concerned
以昨天在Truth Social上的一篇貼文為例，他聲稱企業並不擔心
06:44
with his tariff plans because they are here to stay.
他的關稅計畫，因為這些政策將持續存在。
06:47
We've also heard senior administration officials really double down on the claim that any exemptions or
我們也聽到政府高級官員再次強調，任何豁免或
06:51
carveouts could undermine investment when it comes to reshoring production in the US.
排除條款都可能削弱在美國回流生產的投資意願。
06:56
White House officials are really pushing forward this idea that this is about addressing structural issues when
白宮官員正大力推動這樣一種觀點，即此舉是為了解決
07:01
it comes to global trade imbalances.
全球貿易失衡的結構性問題。
07:03
Now, we should say that President Trump has previously indicated he would be willing to negotiate if there is a quote
現在，我們應該說，川普總統先前曾表示，如果桌上有一份
07:08
phenomenal offer on the table in his words.
「極好的」報價，他願意進行談判。
07:11
It remains to be seen what would constitute a phenomenal offer and whether or not that would take into
究竟什麼才算極好的報價，以及這是否會將
07:15
account retaliation.
報復性措施納入考量，仍有待觀察。
07:17
We should say that we're going to focus closely on those non-tariff barriers like uh lacks IP
我們應該說，我們將密切關注那些非關稅壁壘，例如缺乏智慧財產權
07:21
protections, regulations, the VAT, digital services taxes that the White House kept pushing us towards when it
保護、法規、增值稅、數位服務稅等，白宮在
07:27
came to April 2nd.
4月2日的會議中一直敦促我們注意這些問題。
07:28
And that's because President Trump did say that he spoke to Vietnam's leader.
這是因為川普總統確實表示，他已與越南領導人進行過對話。
07:32
They offered to lower their tariff barriers to zero.
越南方面提議將關稅壁壘降至零。
07:35
And he told them, "Thank you, but let's keep negotiating." Tyler, thank you.
而川普告訴他們：「謝謝，但讓我們繼續談判。」泰勒，謝謝你。
07:39
The latest from Tyler Kendall.
以上是泰勒·肯德爾 (Tyler Kendall) 的最新報導。
07:39
We'll pick up on those negotiations in about 20 minutes time when we catch up with
我們將在約 20 分鐘後，當我們連線到 Bloomberg 的 Steven Angel 時，繼續探討這些談判。
07:42
Steven Angel of Bloomberg out of Asia.
Bloomberg 的 Steven Angel 在亞洲的報導。
07:44
Joining us for the hour, I'm pleased to say, a man who has seen it all.
我很高興地宣布，將與我們共度這一小時的，是一位見多識廣的人物。
07:49
Muhammad Al Eron of Queens College, Cambridge.
他就是劍橋大學皇后學院的穆罕默德·埃爾隆 (Muhammad Al Eron)。
07:50
Muhammad, welcome to the program, sir.
穆罕默德，歡迎來到節目，先生。
07:51
We don't usually get to talk on a Sunday evening, and when we do, it's probably not a good thing.
我們通常不會在星期天晚上談話，而當我們這樣做時，可能不是什麼好事。
07:56
So, let's get straight into it.
所以，讓我們直接切入正題。
07:57
Do you believe these are the start of a set of negotiations, or do you believe these are the new rules?
您認為這是一系列談判的開始，還是您認為這是新的規則？
08:04
We don't know, John, because as much as there was uniformity when it came to statements on where we going to end up,
約翰，我們不知道，因為儘管在最終目標的聲明上我們達成了一致，
08:12
which is this notion of a golden age in which tariffs play a critical role in getting us there, we've heard at least
也就是關稅在實現我們目標的過程中扮演關鍵角色的黃金時代概念，但我們至少聽到了
08:20
three different messages about the short term.
關於短期的三種不同訊息。
08:22
Message number one from the secret treasury, there's nothing to worry about this this rush by Wall Street and others
第一則訊息來自財政部，表示華爾街和其他機構急於將經濟增長放緩和衰退的風險定價，這沒什麼好擔心的。
08:29
to price in lower growth recession.
我們已經看到增長放緩和衰退的風險。
08:34
And we we had JP Morgan over the weekend with significant revisions.
我們在週末看到摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 做出了重大修正。
08:39
In the secretary's view, that is excessive.
在財長看來，那是過度反應。
08:40
There's no need to do that.
沒有必要這樣做。
08:42
So he's saying everything is fine in the short term.
所以他表示短期內一切安好。
08:43
You have a second view that yes, it's going to be tough in the short term, but it's worth it because these
你有第二種觀點，認為短期內確實會很艱難，但這是值得的，因為這些
08:49
tariffs will hold and what you're going to get is higher revenue.
關稅將會維持，而你將得到的是更高的營收。
08:55
What you're going to get is protection.
你將得到的是保護。
08:57
What you're going to get is people moving back to the US with their production facilities.
你將得到的是人們帶著他們的生產設施回到美國。
09:01
Then you had a third view expressed that you have 50 plus countries negotiating and we may go in a world where tariffs
接著你有第三種觀點表達出來，認為有超過50個國家正在進行談判，我們可能會進入一個關稅
09:09
are uniformly low across the world.
在全球範圍內普遍降低的世界。
09:13
So I think the hardest thing for the markets right now is not only to try to evaluate
所以我認為市場目前最困難的地方，不僅在於試圖評估
09:17
where the destination is but how bumpy will the journey be.
目的地在哪，也在於這段旅程會有多顛簸。
09:22
And I'm saying that because we have technicals playing in margin calls are there.
我之所以這麼說，是因為技術面正在發揮作用，融資追繳令已經出現。
09:28
People are in fact reducing winners and losers across the board to raise cash.
事實上，人們正在全面拋售贏家和輸家以籌集現金。
09:34
Fund managers are worried about actual and expected outflows.
基金經理人正在擔憂實際和預期的資金外流。
09:38
So the thing that Lisa rightly said is there is no circuit breaker on the horizon and the question for the
所以Lisa說得對，目前看不到熔斷機制（circuit breaker）的蹤影，而市場面臨的問題是，
09:45
marketplace is with this confusion about what's happening in the short term, will bad technicals take over?
在短期內發生什麼事的混亂情況下，糟糕的技術面會不會主導一切？
09:51
That's the big question right now.
這是目前最大的問題。
09:53
So Muhammad, let's follow up on that and separate two issues.
所以Muhammad，讓我們接著這個話題，並區分兩個議題。
09:55
the next phase for markets and the next phase for business, corporate America and corporations across the
一個是市場的下一個階段，另一個是企業、美國企業以及全球企業的
10:00
The next phase for the markets.
先談市場的下一個階段。
10:01
So far, we've repriced the cycle, repriced the economy lower.
到目前為止，我們已經重新定價了週期，把經濟前景調低。
10:06
And we've done it in quite an orderly way so far.
到目前為止，我們的進展相當有條不紊。
10:08
Do you see reason to believe this enters a more disorderly phase in the days to come?
您認為在接下來的日子裡，市場會進入一個更混亂的階段嗎？
10:14
It could, John.
有可能，John。
10:16
On the one hand, this selloff has been quite indiscriminate.
一方面，這波拋售相當盲目。
10:20
correlations across asset classes have gone to one.
跨資產類別的相關性已趨近於一。
10:24
Whether it's equities or gold, the correlations have gone positive and high positive and therefore
無論是股票還是黃金，相關性都轉為正相關且相當高，因此
10:30
values being created in certain pockets of the market.
市場的某些角落仍創造出價值。
10:34
On the other hand, people are worried about catching a falling knife.
另一方面，人們擔心接下下跌的刀（試圖抄底）。
10:38
They're worried about more deleveraging.
他們擔心會有更多去槓桿操作。
10:41
They're worried about the margin calls have forcing people to raise cash.
他們擔心追繳保證金會迫使人們籌措現金。
10:45
So, you know, you got to be really brave to go in and pick up the pockets of value because there's still a
所以，您知道，您必須非常有勇氣進場撿取這些價值區塊，因為頭上仍然懸著
10:52
very big cloud, a technical cloud over your head.
一大片烏雲，技術性的烏雲。
10:56
Who do you think is more likely to blink first?
您認為誰會先眨眼（讓步）？
10:59
I mean, this was sort of the downdraft that we saw further on Friday was when Fed Sher Jay
我是說，我們在星期五看到的進一步下跌，大約是聯準會理事 Jay
11:03
Powell came out and clearly said it wasn't going to be him because right now inflation was a serious concern.
Powell 站出來明確表示不會是他（出手干預）的時候，因為目前通膨是個嚴重的隱憂。
11:12
How much is that fueling this additional round of potential sell-offs that we may
這對我們可能
11:15
see?
看到的這波潛在拋售有多大推波助瀾的作用？
11:16
It is because we first priced out the Trump put and then what we heard from Chair Powell on Friday is that the Fed
這是因為我們先是排除了「川普 put」（政府護盤）的可能性，然後我們在星期五從 Powell 主席那裡聽到的是，聯準會的
11:24
put is well out of the money.
put（護盤）也還遠在價外（尚未到出手時機）。
11:28
And if you look at the latest revisions in in inflation, um JP Morgan this weekend has
如果你觀察最近的通膨修正數據，摩根大通本週末預測
11:32
BC inflation at 4.4% by the end of the year.
年底前的通膨率將達到4.4%。
11:37
more than twice the Fed's inflation target.
是聯準會通膨目標的兩倍多。
11:41
So I think to go back to what you said when you looked at what happened in 2020, you need a
所以回到你剛才說的，當你回顧2020年發生的事情時，你需要
11:46
malfunctioning of markets in order for the Fed put to be back in the money.
市場失靈，聯準會的保護機制才能再次發揮作用。
11:54
You need markets to malfunction.
你需要市場失靈。
11:55
You need treasuries not to be the safe haven but to start showing technical breakdown and we haven't seen
你需要美國公債不再是避險資產，而是開始出現技術性崩潰，而我們尚未看到
12:04
So unless there's a malfunctioning of market, the Fed is forcibly sidelined by the inflation side of its mandate.
除非市場失靈，否則聯準會將因其通膨目標而被迫袖手旁觀。
12:14
In the meantime, Muhammad, companies have to take action.
與此同時，穆罕默德，企業必須採取行動。
12:16
They don't have the luxury, as John was mentioning, of just sitting there and watching and hanging
如約翰所言，他們沒有奢侈的選擇，不能只是坐視不管、強撐下去，
12:20
tough if they have a payroll to meet and they aren't sure exactly how much they have to charge and when they can pass
如果他們有薪資要支付，卻不確定該收多少費用，以及何時才能將成本
12:25
along the prices.
轉嫁給消費者。
12:26
I know you sit on boards.
我知道你擔任董事。
12:27
I know you have discussions with people.
我知道你會與人討論。
12:28
I know that you are in the corporate world as much as anything else.
我知道你同樣身處企業界。
12:31
What are you hearing in terms of how they are preparing and whether we are getting closer to that point where
你聽到了什麼關於他們如何做準備，以及我們是否正接近
12:36
they have to make really hard decisions about what they keep and what they don't?
他們必須做出艱難決定，決定保留什麼、放棄什麼的時刻？
12:40
And Lisa, you know, I listen very carefully um to business leaders because I think you
莉莎，你知道，我非常仔細地聆聽企業領袖的發言，因為我認為你
12:47
get a good sense when there's a paradigm shift as to what's likely to come next.
當典範轉移發生時，要敏銳地感知接下來可能會發生什麼。
12:52
The best that you can say for the economy is that there's a set of business leaders who are willing to wait
對於經濟最好的情況是，有一群企業領袖願意等待
12:59
and see and take the hit on the profit margins.
觀望，並承受利潤的損失。
13:04
What hit are they taking higher cost and anticipation of lower revenue due to the destruction?
他們承受了什麼損失？因破壞而預期營收下降，導致成本上升？
13:12
So, there's a group that's saying wait and see.
所以，有一群人持觀望態度。
13:16
We know it's going to impact profits, but we're willing to do that because we
我們知道這會影響利潤，但我們願意這樣做，因為我們
13:18
don't know how these tariffs are going to work out.
不知道這些關稅會如何發展。
13:22
Then there's a second group that says we can't wait.
然後有第二群人說我們不能等。
13:27
We have to take action now.
我們現在必須採取行動。
13:28
So you're starting to have soft freezes on hiring.
所以你開始看到招聘凍結的苗頭。
13:33
You're starting to have rounds of let's see what we can cut in terms of expenditure and you're
你開始進行一輪又一輪的檢討，看看在支出方面能削減什麼，而且你
13:39
starting to talk about price increases trying to pass on the the higher cost to the end consumer.
開始討論漲價，試圖將較高的成本轉嫁給最終消費者。
13:48
that second set of reaction which makes sense at the level of each company does not make sense for
第二種反應在單一公司的層面上是有道理的，但對
13:53
the economy as a whole.
整體經濟而言卻不合理。
13:56
So it's going to be the balance between the two and I I must say that second set is larger from
所以這將是兩者之間的平衡，我必須說，根據我與人們的交談，第二種反應
14:01
the people I talked to.
較為普遍。
14:04
Of course it is a small sample but it's larger than the first set.
當然這只是小樣本，但它比第一種反應要多。
14:07
Hey Muhammad great to have you with us this evening.
嘿，穆罕默德，很高興今晚有你加入我們。
14:10
Muhammad Alin will be sticking with us.
穆罕默德·阿林將會繼續與我們在一起。
14:12
You've got to be tremendously open-minded about what happens here.
你必須對這裡發生的事情保持極度開放的態度。
14:14
Quite literally.
字面上就是如此。
14:15
Not many people have lived through this.
沒多少人經歷過這種事。
14:17
In fact, I'd say hardly anybody has.
事實上，我敢說幾乎沒人經歷過。
14:19
And the first move we're seeing from some corporations is just to pause
而我們看到一些企業的第一步只是暫停
14:22
And we saw that with Jacob Land Rover just this weekend.
我們上週末就在 Jacob Land Rover 身上看到了這點。
14:25
How can they continue if they don't know at what rate they can potentially sell cars into
如果他們不知道能以什麼價格將車賣到
14:29
the United States?
美國，他們要如何繼續營運？
14:30
You also have people pausing shipments because they don't know how they can pass this around.
也有人因為不知道如何處理這件事而暫停出貨。
14:33
Howard Marks, who has been in this industry for decades, talked to us on Friday and said he has never in his
在這個行業數十年的 Howard Marks 週五對我們表示，他在其
14:38
career seen this level of uncertainty in terms of a potential paradigm shift that changes the rules.
職業生涯中從未見過這種可能改變規則的典範轉移所帶來的不確定性。
14:45
Equity futures start trading in about 45 minutes time.
股指期貨將在約 45 分鐘後開始交易。
14:49
Up next on the program, negotiate or retaliate.
接下來節目內容：要協商還是報復。
14:51
We are prepared to respond.
我們已做好應對準備。
14:52
We're now preparing for further counter measures to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail.
如果談判失敗，我們現在正準備採取進一步反制措施，以保護我們的權益與企業。
15:04
Up next on the program, Libby Canrell of PIMCO live from New York City this
接下來節目內容，PIMCO 的 Libby Canrell 從紐約市為您
15:06
evening.
帶來現場直播。
15:07
Good evening.
晚安。
15:25
in this facility which is part of your $2 billion investment in the last two years is a massive amount.
這座設施是您過去兩年 20 億美元投資的一部分，金額非常龐大。
15:34
Because you know we focused a lot on automation and upgrading our quality standards so
因為我們專注於自動化和提升品質標準，
15:38
that we can adhere to the US FDA and European standards because some of our vaccines now are going even to the west
以便我們能符合美國 FDA 和歐洲的標準，因為我們現在的一些疫苗甚至要銷往西方國家，
15:45
which is a fundamental shift in our strategy you know from back in the day when my father started the business
這是我策略上的根本轉變，你知道從我父親當年創業開始，
15:51
where we were predominantly in India and the developing world India now you're more gold yes so you were about 8,000
我們主要是在印度和發展中國家，現在印度更為富裕了，是的，我們在這個廠區大約有 8,000
15:59
strong in this facility um all Indian mostly Indian yes uh I would say 99% of talent that we've trained overseas and
名員工，嗯，大部分是印度人，是的，我會說我們在海外和印度培訓的人才中，99% 都是我們自己內部的技能培訓中心培訓出來的，
16:09
in India we have our own internal skill building center where we train onsite serum started with just producing
我們在現場進行培訓，血清研究所最初只是生產
16:17
vaccine for tatanis but is producing a lot more vaccines now what is the next big thing you think a global pandemic
破傷風疫苗，但現在生產很多其他疫苗，你認為下一個重大挑戰是什麼？全球大流行
16:24
flu vaccine is something that we're working on and I think the world will need that not only for the annual flu
流感疫苗是我們正在研發的項目，我認為世界將需要它，不僅是為了每年的流感，
16:29
cases but god forbid there's a flu pandmic PMIC I think we are very well poised to make one and a half two
還有上帝保佑不要發生流感大流行，PMIC，我認為我們非常有條件生產 1.5 到 20
16:35
billion doses and roll it out very quickly to protect the world and we have of course the other vaccines as we
億劑疫苗，並迅速分發以保護世界，當然我們還有其他疫苗，正如我們
16:41
talked about HPV and malaria that we've just launched and we're going to scale that up as well.
談到的 HPV 和瘧疾疫苗，我們剛剛推出，我們也將擴大生產規模。
16:50
[Music] This is Bloomberg News Now.
[音樂] 這是彭博新聞。
16:56
News when you want it at the touch of a button.
隨時隨地，一鍵掌握最新消息。
16:57
Another volatile day on Wall Street.
華爾街又一個動盪的日子。
16:59
We're seeing big moves.
我們看到大幅波動。
17:01
All eyes on Capitol Hill as Democrats and Republicans today's job numbers casting
所有目光都聚焦在國會山莊，民主黨和共和黨對今天的就業數據表示質疑，
17:05
doubt on the Fed's next move.
對聯準會的下一步行動投下陰影。
17:08
Inflation remains front and center.
通貨膨脹仍然是焦點。
17:09
And that's news when you want to with Bloomberg News Now.
這就是彭博新聞，隨時為您提供最新消息。
17:11
Get it 24/7 on the Bloomberg business app.
在彭博商業應用程式上全天候隨時收看。
17:14
Bloomberg.com and anywhere you get your podcasts.
也可上 Bloomberg.com 或您收聽播客的任何平台。
17:18
Context changes everything.
情境決定一切。
17:18
Bloomberg News Now.
彭博新聞即時播報。
17:27
Live from New York City under surveillance this evening.
今晚在監控下的紐約市現場直播。
17:30
negotiate or retaliate.
要么談判，要么報復。
17:32
We have always been ready to negotiate with the United States.
我們始終準備好與美國進行談判。
17:38
At the same time, we are prepared to respond.
同時，我們也已做好回應的準備。
17:41
We are already finalizing the first package of counter measures in response to tariffs on
我們即將完成針對鋼鋁關稅的第一輪反制措施，
17:47
steel and we're now preparing for further counter measures to protect our interests and our businesses if
並且正在準備進一步的反制措施，以在談判失敗時保護我們的利益和企業。
17:56
negotiations fail.
以下是最新情況。
17:58
And so here's the latest.
法國和德國正準備報復。
17:59
France and Germany preparing to retaliate.
義大利和西班牙希望進行談判，正如 Elon Musk 所暗示的，最終可能實現零關稅。
18:01
Italy and Spain hoping to negotiate as Elon Musk suggests it could end in a zero tariff
我對關稅問題抱持希望，例如，我期望最終能達成協議，
18:07
situation.
理想情況下，歐洲和美國應朝向零關稅的局面發展，
18:08
I'm hopeful for example with the tariffs that that at the end of the day I hope it is agreed that both Europe
有效在歐洲和北美之間建立一個自由貿易區。
18:15
and the United States should move ideally in my view to a zero tariff situation effectively creating a free
嗯，這就是我希望發生的事。
18:22
trade zone between Europe and North America.
現在加入我們在紐約的對話，我們邀請到 Pimco 的 Libby Cantrol。
18:27
Um, and uh that that would be my that's what I hope I hope occurs.
嗯，呃，那將是我……那是我希望發生的事。
18:33
Joining us now for a conversation here in New York, Libby Cantrol of Pimco.
現在加入我們在紐約的對話，我們邀請到 Pimco 的 Libby Cantrol。
18:36
Libby, good to see you.
Libby，很高興見到你。
18:38
Is it fair to say we're getting mixed messages?
我們是否收到了混雜的訊息？
18:38
Good to see you.
很高興見到你。
18:40
We're getting mixed messages maybe from Elon Musk and some of his sort of tertiary adviserss.
我們可能從 Elon Musk 和他的一些所謂的三級顧問那裡得到了混雜的訊息。
18:47
However, the folks at the White House seem incredibly committed to the idea of tariffs,
然而，白宮方面似乎對關稅這個想法非常堅持，
18:53
keeping these tariffs on.
並維持這些關稅。
18:55
We've talked about how the market has sort of viewed tariffs as a means to an end, a way to
我們談過市場如何看待關稅，將其視為達到目的的一種手段，是從貿易夥伴那裡
18:59
extract concessions from our trading partners, but more kind of bark than bite.
獲取讓步的一種方式，但更多是虛張聲勢而非實際行動。
19:03
What I think the White House is telling us, what I think that Peter left uh how is telling us is that this is
我認為白宮想告訴我們的，以及我認為 Peter（Peter Navarro）想告訴我們的是，這種
19:12
this bite is sort of worth worth it uh in terms of rebalancing the economy.
實際行動在經濟再平衡方面是值得的。
19:17
that tariffs are not a means to an end or not only a means to an end but an end to themselves and really as it relates
也就是說，關稅不是達到目的的手段，或者說不只是一種手段，而是目的本身，特別是
19:23
to the goods trade deficit.
關於商品貿易逆差。
19:25
I mean this is something we have been talking about to our clients since 2017 when President
我的意思是，自 2017 年 Trump 總統首次當選以來，我們就一直在向客戶談論這一點，
19:28
Trump was first elected just that he really believes that it is crucial to reduce the goods trade deficit and I
他真的相信減少商品貿易逆差至關重要，而我
19:36
think what we've seen over the last week is he really needs it.
認為我們在過去一週看到的是，他真的需要這一點。
19:40
You almost called him Peter Lutnik, which actually it actually works because it's Peter Davaro
你差點叫他 Peter Lutnik，這其實也可以，因為他是 Peter Navarro
19:44
and Howard Lutnick.
和 Howard Lutnick。
19:47
The market's nightmares tonight.
今晚市場的噩夢。
19:48
Well, that's kind of what's coming out, right?
嗯，這就是正在發生的事情，對吧？
19:52
So, Peter Davaro coming out and criticized Elon Musk and said he doesn't know what he's
所以，Peter Navarro 出來批評 Elon Musk，說他不知道自己在做什麼。
19:55
talking about.
他正在談論的。
19:56
He's he sells cars.
他是賣車的。
19:57
What else does he do?
他還做什麼？
19:58
But he doesn't understand some of the long-term gain that this could potentially have.
但他不理解這可能帶來的長期獲益。
20:01
You teased it something that's important, especially as we have the likes of
您點出了一個重點，特別是當我們有像
20:03
Vietnam coming out as one of those 50 countries that are trying to negotiate.
越南這樣正努力談判的 50 個國家之一浮出檯面。
20:08
Is dropping tariffs to zero enough if it's a trade deficit that cannot be remedied with a country that doesn't
如果對於一個沒有能力應付在美國採購的國家，其貿易逆差無法彌補，那麼將關稅降至零就足夠了嗎？
20:14
have the means to meet the buying purchases in the US?
我認為 Peter Navaro 今天所說的，關於白宮
20:18
I think what Peter Navaro said today uh was exactly right in terms of how the White House is
對此的看法完全正確，那就是關稅稅率是一回事，但其他非關稅貿易壁壘，白宮的
20:22
thinking about this is that tariff rates are one thing but these other you know non-tariff trade barriers the perception
看法至少是關於越南在貨幣方面的作為及其補貼措施。
20:30
of the White House at least in terms of what Vietnam has been doing with its currency what it does with its
（註：此句原文結構較散亂，已依上下文整合）
20:36
subsidies.
（註：原文此處為空行或斷句，依上下文合併）
20:37
So I think this is more complicated.
所以我認為這更為複雜。
20:39
Um and this is the thing that we are we're concerned about is that there are not maybe the offramps
嗯，這正是我們所擔憂的，那就是可能沒有像您想像的那種退路，
20:44
that you would have thought if the tariff the reciprocal tariff rate that the US is imposing on these countries
如果美國對這些國家實施的對等關稅稅率
20:50
was just the explicit tariff rate because it was so much higher because it had to do with the trade deficit.
只是明確的關稅稅率，因為它高得多，是因為與貿易逆差有關。
20:58
You know that formula that's gotten a lot of attention.
您知道那個引起很多關注的公式。
21:00
I think our view is that there are fewer off-ramps and as a result I mean what we are we're
我認為我們的觀點是退路較少，因此，我的意思是，我們在投資組合方面
21:05
preparing for in terms of portfolios what we're telling our clients is that there's going to be stickiness to these
正在準備的，我們告訴客戶的是，這些關稅將會具有
21:10
tariffs and even if there are some negotiations and some concessions along the way I think the direction of travel
黏性，即使在過程中有一些談判和讓步，我認為發展的方向
21:17
here is very clear I don't mean to be sort of statement of the obvious here but to be fair to you but that tariffs
這裡非常清楚，我並不是要說些顯而易見的事，但為了公平起見，關稅將會很高，我認為在一段時間內它們都會維持在高點，這個看法因我們在週末聽到的評論而更加強化。
21:24
are going to be high and I think they're going to be high for a while that view was reinforced by the comments we've had
我們身邊有一位共同的好友，穆罕默德·阿里 (Muhammad Aleri)。
21:30
over the weekend.
穆罕默德，我知道你想加入討論。
21:31
We've got a mutual friend alongside us, Muhammad Aleri.
是的，莉比 (Libby)。
21:33
Muhammad, I know you want to jump in.
我很好奇，因為你在市場上聽到反對的聲音，認為這不僅僅是達成目的的手段，它本身就是目的。
21:35
Yes, Libby.
這種反對意見指出，以下五種因素的某種組合將使其成為一個暫時性的模式。
21:36
I'm quite curious because you hear in the marketplace a push back against it's not just a means to an end,
第一是市場。
21:41
it's an end itself.
第二是其他國家，採取某種恩威並施的組合。
21:44
And that push back says that some combination of the following five will make it a temporary
第三是國會，第四是川普總統的顧問，第五是法律體系。
21:50
paradigm.
所以，華爾街上那些認為這只是暫時現象的人，就是訴諸於這五點。
21:52
One is markets.
你認為其中任何一點具有約束力嗎？
21:54
Two is other countries, some combination of carrots and sticks.
我認為，穆罕默德，這又是個很好的框架來解釋這一切，我認為這些在某個時間點都會成為限制因素。
21:58
Three is Congress, four is President Trump's adviser, and fifth is the legal system.
嗯，我只是認為這些是比較長期的限制因素。
22:05
So those in on Wall Street that believe that this is just temporary, appeal to those five things.
舉例來說，國會，到目前為止我們看到的是，確實存在對白宮的私下反對，但實際上，大多數人仍然與（白宮）保持一致。
22:11
What do you think any of those are binding?
您認為其中哪些具有約束力？
22:13
So I think that and this is, you know, again, Muhammad, um, wonderful way to to sort of frame all of this and
所以我認為，穆罕默德，這再次是……嗯，一個很好的方式來闡述這一切，而且
22:19
I think these are all going and can all be constraints at some point.
我認為這些在某個時間點都將成為、且都能成為約束因素。
22:25
Uh I just think that these are kind of more longer term constraints.
呃，我只是認為這些更像是長期的約束因素。
22:29
Uh and you know for instance Congress um what we have seen so far is that absolutely is there
呃，舉例來說，國會，到目前為止我們看到的是，確實存在
22:35
private push back uh to the White House but for all intents and purposes most folks are staying with with the
對白宮的私下反對，但實際上，大多數人仍然與（白宮）保持一致。
22:45
Now that may very well change particularly as we get closer to the midterms or fundraising or town halls.
這種情況很可能會改變，特別是隨著期中選舉、募款或市政廳會議的临近。
22:51
But I think what you know again that the sort of the message that we've what we've been sort of telling our clients
但我想您知道，這再次是我們一直向客戶傳達的訊息
22:56
is that this is you know while there may be some constraints they're not necessarily short-term and so you know
那就是，雖然可能存在一些限制，但這些限制不一定是短期的，所以您知道
23:04
in the next week or weeks or months do we think that there's going to be a significant pivot?
在接下來的幾週或幾個月內，我們認為會有重大的轉向嗎？
23:11
And in fact I think the White House has said that right they have said that in order for
事實上，我想白宮已經說過了，沒錯，他們已經表示，為了讓
23:14
this to work that these have to be durable that there has to be some short-term pain.
這一切奏效，這些措施必須是持久的，必須要經歷一些短期的痛苦。
23:20
So I think this is you know of course there is going to be some sort of political threshold some even
所以我認為，當然會存在某種政治門檻，甚至
23:25
sort of market constraint but I think we're very far away from it at this point.
某種市場限制，但我認為目前我們離這些還很遠。
23:29
There's certainly another dimension to the fuller policy platform and that's taxes.
更全面的政策平台當然還有另一個層面，那就是稅收。
23:33
Do you believe it's sufficient just extending the tax cuts?
您認為僅僅延長減稅措施就足夠了嗎？
23:35
Do they have to go even further?
他們是否必須更進一步？
23:38
The fear this evening is that we end up with a negative supply shock at least in the
今晚的擔憂是，我們最終會出現負面的供給衝擊，至少在
23:40
near term reminiscent of say what we saw in the pandemic.
短期內，讓人想起我們在疫情期間看到的情況。
23:44
Will that be accompanied by some form of demand side stimulus on the fiscal side?
這是否會伴隨著財政方面某種形式的需求側刺激措施？
23:48
And of course, you know, maybe the upside here is that they are getting the
當然，您知道，也許這裡的正面因素是他們正在讓
23:50
10-year down.
10年期公債殖利率下降。
23:51
Rates are rates are coming down.
利率正在下降。
23:53
Of course, that is what the Treasury Secretary had said.
當然，這就是財政部長所說的。
23:56
He was very f he's been very focused.
他非常……他一直非常專注。
23:57
I don't mean to be flippant, but of course, there is there is an impact.
我不是想輕率地說，但當然，這確實有影響。
24:01
There is a benefit to having kind of you know, shorter term um you know, more attractive financing.
擁有……你知道，期限較短、更具吸引力的融資是有好處的。
24:05
So I I I think that you know if if and when the economy slows and I think our view is that you know absolutely have
所以我……我認為，你知道，如果……以及當經濟放緩時——我認為我們的觀點是，你知道——絕對是
24:13
recession risks increased um you know for every effect increase 1% increase in the effective tariff rate we're sort of
衰退風險增加了。你知道，有效關稅稅率每增加 1%，我們大約是
24:20
saying there's a 10 basis point kind of flow through which means that if you're going to the effective tariff rate to
認為會有 10 個基點的傳導效應，這意味著如果你將有效關稅稅率提高到
24:24
25% you basically are eliminating all growth.
25%，你基本上就消除了所有的增長。
24:28
Now, a lot has to happen in order for that to occur, but I do think that just knowing how politicians work
現在，要發生這種情況需要很多條件，但我確實認為，僅僅憑藉對政客運作方式的了解，
24:34
that the inclination will be bigger tax cuts, fewer spending cuts, and more deficit issuance.
他們的傾向將是減稅更多、削減支出更少，以及發行更多赤字。
24:41
We just have a couple seconds here.
我們只剩下幾秒鐘了。
24:43
I'm curious whether you give any credence to that belief that this is all designed to bring down
我很好奇你是否相信這種說法，即這一切都是為了壓低
24:47
long-term yields, to refinance at low yields.
長期收益率，以便以低收益率進行再融資。
24:49
This was the subject of an op-ed on the Fox News web page this weekend.
這是本週末福克斯新聞網站上一篇專欄文章的主題。
24:53
So, just 20 seconds.
所以，只剩 20 秒。
24:56
That look feasible?
這看起來可行嗎？
24:56
Uh, you know, I think it it's well, I think that that is there's a lot of execution risk.
呃，你知道，我認為……嗯，我認為這……有很多執行風險。
25:01
Let's just put it that way.
我們姑且這麼說吧。
25:02
If this is actually some grand plan, I think I would probably um I'm skeptical of that, but I but if it were,
如果這真的是某個宏大的計劃，我可能會……我對此持懷疑態度，但如果是的話，
25:08
I think that there's a very high amount of execution risk.
我認為執行風險非常高。
25:11
Liby diplomatic.
這是利比外交。
25:13
We'd expect nothing less.
我們對此毫不意外。
25:13
It's good to see you.
很高興見到你。
25:13
Good to see you.
很高興見到你。
25:14
Thanks for dropping by.
謝謝你的到訪。
25:15
Libby Cantrol there of PIMCO.
這是PIMCO的利比・坎特羅爾。
25:15
Muhammad's going to stick with us.
穆罕默德將繼續與我們在一起。
25:17
That question has been asked repeatedly, not just over the last week, but over the last month.
這個問題一再被提出，不僅在過去一週，而是在過去一個月。
25:22
Let's say the yields go to zero on the 10-year, you term out your debt.
試想，如果十年期國債收益率降至零，你就可以延長債務期限。
25:25
Well, there you have your budget for the defense department back from interest payments.
這樣一來，你就能從利息支付中拿回國防部的預算。
25:30
You clearly have some wiggle room.
你顯然有一些迴旋餘地。
25:31
Look, as Libby was saying, the execution risk is all the jobs lost in the meantime, trillions
聽著，正如利比所說，執行風險在於期間失去的所有工作機會、數兆美元的財富損失，以及潛在的停滯性通膨，但你知道，另一方面，削減債務也有巨大的執行風險。
25:35
of dollars of wealth lost and potentially stagflation, but you know, on the flip side, trimming out debt,
同上。
25:40
huge execution risk.
同上。
25:42
Up next on the program, Robert Koigberger of Grammarly Funds Management breaking down the pain
接下來，Grammarly Funds Management的羅伯特・科伊格伯格將在紐約現場為我們分析新興市場的痛苦。
25:46
across emerging markets live from New York.
同上。
25:50
Good evening.
晚安。
25:51
[Music] the incidence of cancer which is to say
[音樂] 癌症發生率，也就是說，
26:06
people getting it is higher than it was 20 or 30 or 40 years ago.
人們罹患癌症的比率比20、30或40年前更高。
26:11
Is that because detection is better than it used to be?
這是因為檢測技術比以前更好嗎？
26:14
So the dirty secret is we have no idea.
所以，不為人知的真相是我們根本不知道。
26:16
We don't collect data well in the United States.
我們在美國的數據收集做得不好。
26:20
What we do know is that there's not a dramatic rise in cancer in the United States.
我們確實知道的是，美國的癌症並沒有急遽增加。
26:24
But what we are seeing is a troubling trend is younger people are getting more cancers.
但我們看到一個令人擔憂的趨勢，那就是年輕人罹患癌症的情況越來越多。
26:27
That's real.
這是真實發生的。
26:29
We have no idea why, but we are seeing younger people more colon cancer, more breast cancer and other
我們完全不知道為什麼，但我們看到年輕人有更多大腸癌、更多乳癌，以及過去從未見過的其他癌症，發生在20、30、40歲的年輕人身上。
26:35
cancers in younger individuals, 20, 30, 40 year olds that we never used to see.
20、30、40歲的年輕人，我們以前從未見過。
26:40
And what do you think could possibly be the cause?
你認為可能的原因是什麼？
26:42
It assume pollution or the environment?
你假設是污染或環境因素嗎？
26:45
In some ways, we assume it's either something in the environment.
在某些方面，我們假設是環境中的某些東西。
26:49
We assume it's diet.
我們假設是飲食。
26:52
It's ultrarocessed foods.
是超加工食品。
26:52
It's microlastics.
是微塑膠。
26:52
It's changes in the microbiome.
是微生物叢的變化。
26:57
We really don't know.
我們真的不知道。
27:01
David Weston.
大衛·韋斯頓 (David Weston)。
27:02
Join me for the next generation of Wall Street Week, telling stories of capitalism from business,
歡迎加入我的《華爾街週刊》(Wall Street Week) 新世代，講述來自商業、市場、經濟、科技和氣候的資本主義故事。
27:07
markets, economics, tech, and climate.
每週我們將深入現場，探討今日頭條新聞背後的真相，以及未來可能成為焦點的議題。
27:10
Each week we'll go on the road for a look at what lies behind the headlines of today and what will likely be the
每週我們將深入現場，探討今日頭條新聞背後的真相，以及未來可能成為焦點的議題。
27:16
headlines tomorrow.
明日的頭條新聞。
27:18
Above all else is a missions done nothing but grow immensely.
最重要的是，一項使命除了大幅增長之外別無其他。
27:21
To me that's an extraordinary sign.
對我來說，這是一個非凡的信號。
27:23
We can be the change that we want to see.
我們可以成為我們想要看到的改變。
27:25
Watch the allnew Wall Street Week.
敬請收看全新的《華爾街週刊》。
27:27
More than what you need to know.
不僅僅是您需要知道的資訊。
27:28
It's what you need to think about.
更是您需要思考的議題。
27:31
The top names at the Fed are on Bloomberg.
聯準會的高層人物都在彭博社。
27:35
I do know that consumer sentiment has started to take a dip.
我確實知道消費者信心已經開始下滑。
27:39
The question that we face right now is is consumer sentiment going to be a leading
我們現在面臨的問題是，消費者信心是否會像疫情前那樣成為一個領先指標，
27:41
indicator like it was pre- pandemic or is it going to be something that doesn't really translate into actual observed
還是它會變成一種無法轉化為經濟中實際觀察到的行為的指標，
27:47
behavior in the economy that as how it played out for most of the pandemic.
就像在疫情大部分時間裡的那樣。
27:51
Right now it's an open question and it's one of the things I'm going to be watching very closely in the months to
目前這仍是一個未解的問題，也是我在未來幾個月將密切關注的事項之一。
27:56
Nobody covers the Fed like Bloomberg.
沒有人比彭博社更懂聯準會。
27:59
[Music] It's the world's second largest economy with a growing influence in global
[音樂] 這是世界第二大經濟體，在全球事務中的影響力日益增長。
28:06
Bloomberg The China Show brings you the unmatched expertise you need to keep track of breaking news, in-depth
《彭博中國秀》為您帶來無可比擬的專業知識，助您掌握突發新聞、深入的市場分析，
28:12
market analysis, and the most influential news makers in and around China.
以及中國內外最具影響力的新聞人物。
28:16
We need to do more to engage the market more.
我們需要做更多來更好地與市場互動。
28:19
We're risk.
我們承擔風險。
28:20
I think we caught a little sweet spot.
我認為我們抓住了一個絕佳的時機點。
28:21
Massive savings right now.
目前有龐大的儲蓄。
28:22
It's already a different game.
這已經是不同的局面了。
28:24
Bloomberg the China show.
Bloomberg 中國秀。
28:25
Weekdays at 9:00 p.m.
每週一至週五晚上 9 點。
28:28
Eastern time, right here on Bloomberg.
東部時間，就在 Bloomberg。
28:30
Context changes everything.
情境改變一切。
28:31
in case you missed it on the opening trade.
如果您錯過了開盤交易時段的內容。
28:34
Is Trump as he says he is ready to do transformational trade deals as long as he gets his interest taken care
川普是否如他所說，只要他的利益得到保障，就準備進行轉型性的貿易協議？
28:41
Because if he is, that gives a huge opportunity for the UK to really move the dial on its growth with the US.
如果是的話，這將為英國提供一個巨大的機會，藉由與美國的關係真正推動其經濟增長。
28:50
So, I can't I can't imagine that you would shy away from that prospect if it's
所以，我無法想像您會對這樣的前景望之卻步，如果那是
28:54
What remains to be seen is it genuine on the part of the US and we have to test that.
仍有待觀察的是，美方是否抱持誠意，而我們必須加以測試。
28:59
Don't miss the opening trade live every weekday.
每個工作日的開盤交易時段直播，千萬別錯過。
29:02
Good morning.
早安。
29:03
This is Bloomberg surveillance.
這裡是 Bloomberg 監控（Bloomberg Surveillance）。
29:04
Welcome back to the opening trade.
歡迎回到開盤交易（The Opening Trade）。
29:07
This is Bloomberg Technology.
這是彭博科技（Bloomberg Technology）。
29:08
This is the Asia trade.
這是亞洲交易時段（Asia Trade）。
29:11
This is Wall Street Week.
這是華爾街週（Wall Street Week）。
29:13
Welcome to Balance of Power.
歡迎來到權力平衡（Balance of Power）。
29:14
This is Bloomberg television bringing you up totheminute economic news whenever and wherever it happens.
這是彭博電視，無論何時何地，為您帶來最新的經濟新聞。
29:21
I'm Jennifer Zabasa in Cape Town, South Africa and this is Bloomberg.
我是 Jennifer Zabasa，現在位於南非開普敦，這裡是彭博。
29:28
[Music] Do not adjust the TV set.
[音樂] 請勿調整電視機。
29:40
This is live a Sunday evening.
這是個週日的現場直播夜晚。
29:41
We are here.
我們在這裡。
29:43
It's one of those Sunday evenings.
這是個典型的週日夜晚。
29:44
30 minutes away from the start of US equity futures trading after President Trump's tariffs
距離川普總統關稅政策實施後的美國股價期貨交易開盤，還有30分鐘。
29:47
triggered the worst week for stocks since the pandemic.
引發了自疫情以來股市最糟糕的一週。
29:50
Bloomberg's Danny Burgerer joins us to tally up the damage.
彭博的 Danny Burgerer 加入我們來進行損失總結。
29:53
Hey Danny.
嗨 Danny。
29:54
It was a really bad two days for breath.
這兩天的表現真的非常糟糕。
29:57
Only 14 stocks ended higher after Thursday and Friday.
在週四和週五之後，只有14檔股票收盤上漲。
29:59
So, it's hard to call out one individual stock responsible for the ills of this market.
因此，很難指出是哪一檔個股導致了市場的這次危機。
30:03
But if you're going to attempt to do that, it's hard not to look at Apple.
但如果你試圖這麼做，很難不注意到 Apple。
30:06
This thing on its own was responsible for a tenth of the losses of the S&P 500 on Thursday and Friday.
僅僅這一檔股票，就佔了週四和週五標普500指數損失的十分之一。
30:13
Dan Ives of Web Bush writing over the weekend that there is no other US tech
Web Bush 的 Dan Ives 在週末撰文指出，沒有其他美國科技股
30:16
stock that is more exposed to tariffs and international supply chains than Apple.
比 Apple 更暴露在關稅和國際供應鏈的風險之下。
30:21
He for his part downgraded it.
他自己則將其評級下調。
30:22
Something interesting though happened as a sell-off got underway in those two days.
然而，在這兩天的拋售過程中，發生了一些有趣的事。
30:26
It wasn't just the AI, it wasn't just valuation compression.
這不僅僅是AI的問題，也不僅僅是估值壓縮的問題。
30:31
Some of the more economically sensitive stocks started to join in on this.
一些對經濟更敏感的股票也開始加入下跌行列。
30:35
So you had energy that performed really bad and banks, banks especially hurt with IPOs
因此，能源股表現非常糟糕，而銀行股——尤其是銀行股——因IPO受重創。
30:39
being paused, debt not being brought to market.
IPO暫停，債務無法進入市場。
30:42
You can see just how painful Friday itself was for the sector.
你可以看到週五對該板塊造成了多大的痛苦。
30:48
KBW ending the two days down 15.8%, its worst two days since March of 2020.
KBW指數在這兩天累計下跌15.8%，這是自2020年3月以來最糟糕的兩天。
30:52
for the retailers, a little bit different and a little bit interesting.
對於零售業來說，情況則有些不同，也有點有趣。
30:55
This is where you get some of the hope casting that maybe negotiations will indeed
這裡你會看到一些寄望於談判將會進行的希望。
30:59
So Nike, first we get the tariff announcement.
所以以耐吉（Nike）為例，首先是關稅公告。
31:03
It falls to its lowest level since 2017.
它跌至2017年以來的最低水平。
31:05
A painful Thursday and then it slightly rebounds as Trump says that he had a productive call with a
經歷了痛苦的週四後，隨著川普表示他與越南領導人進行了富有成效的通話，股價略有反彈。
31:10
Vietnamese leader talking about lowering tariffs to zero.
討論將關稅降至零的問題。
31:14
But a crucial question as to whether the rally for retailers and these internationally exposed
但一個關鍵問題是，零售商和這些國際業務曝險的公司的反彈能否持續。
31:18
companies can continue.
公司的反彈能否持續。
31:21
Is the goal lowering trade barriers or is it bringing the trade deficit to zero?
目標是降低貿易壁壘，還是要將貿易逆差歸零？
31:24
Those two things will have very different outcomes for these stocks.
這兩種情況對這些股票的影響將大不相同。
31:27
John Danny, thank you.
John Danny，謝謝你。
31:29
Great work as always.
一如既往的精彩分析。
31:30
Equity futures start trading at about 29 minutes time.
股指期貨將在約29分鐘後開始交易。
31:33
So market shaken as President Trump proposes major tariffs across Asia.
因此，當川普總統提議對亞洲實施重大關稅時，市場為之震盪。
31:38
China 67%.
中國67%。
31:40
That's tariffs charged to the USA including currency manipulation and trade barriers.
這是針對美國收取的關稅，包括貨幣操縱和貿易壁壘。
31:48
So, we're going to be charging a discounted reciprocal tariff of 34%.
因此，我們將徵收34%的折扣互惠關稅。
31:52
I think in other words, they charge us, we charge them.
我想換句話說，他們對我們徵收，我們也對他們徵收。
31:57
China threatening to retaliate, promising a 34% tariff on all American goods as
中國威脅要報復，承諾對所有美國商品徵收34%的關稅，而
32:01
Vietnam offers to remove all tariffs on US imports.
越南提議取消所有美國進口商品的關稅。
32:04
The president writing on social media, quote, "China played it wrong.
總統在社交媒體上寫道，引述：「中國搞砸了。
32:07
They panicked." Joining us now, Bloomberg, Steven Angel.
他們慌了手腳。
32:11
Steven, welcome to the program, sir.
史蒂文，歡迎您加入節目。
32:12
It's wonderful to get your perspective on things.
能聽聽您的觀點真是太好了。
32:16
Is China coming to the table or not?
中國會不會坐上談判桌？
32:17
Well, which table are you talking about?
嗯，您指的是哪一張桌子？
32:19
If they were coming into the ring to fight and take off the gloves uh and fight back, yes, they're going to be
如果他們真的要上擂台，脫下手套反擊，沒錯，他們將會
32:24
doing that.
這麼做。
32:26
Uh China has been fairly measured so far.
嗯，中國目前的應對相當克制。
32:29
Uh and Xiinping essentially telling his government to remain calm until now.
嗯，習近平基本上要求他的政府保持冷靜直到現在。
32:36
I think they had uh probably taken a little bit too many punches themselves.
我認為他們自己可能也挨了不少拳頭。
32:42
And finally, 34% that takes effect on all US goods imported into China on April 10th, so
最後，針對所有進口到中國的美國商品加徵的 34% 關稅將於 4 月 10 日生效，所以
32:47
mid this week.
本週中旬。
32:48
Uh there are a number of different export controls.
嗯，還有許多不同的出口管制措施。
32:50
They've added some defense companies to their so-called blacklist.
他們將一些國防工業公司列入了所謂的黑名單。
32:53
The entity list, uh they are banning chicken imports from some American companies, sorghum from
實體清單，嗯，他們正在禁止進口某些美國公司的雞肉，以及某家美國公司的高粱。
32:58
one American companies.
一家美國公司。
33:00
Uh also again those rare earths, further restrictions on uh the outflow of rare earths, which
嗯，同樣是那些稀土，對稀土的外流實施進一步限制，這
33:04
China controls a large swath of them for the tech supply chain.
中國控制了其中很大一部分，用於科技供應鏈。
33:09
You know, Danny was just talking about Apple.
丹尼剛剛才在談論蘋果（Apple）。
33:13
That is a good example of how these Trump tariffs do affect American companies who after
這就是一個很好的例子，說明這些川普關稅如何影響美國公司，這些公司在
33:16
the first trade war with China diversified to the so-called China plus one strategy going Apple in particular
第一次貿易戰後進行了多元化佈局，採用了所謂的「中國加一」策略，尤其是走向蘋果
33:23
uh making you know iPhones and Macs and other products in India in Thailand in Indonesia Vietnam and of course Taiwan a
嗯，在印度、泰國、印尼、越南，當然還有台灣生產 iPhone、Mac 和其他產品，這
33:31
huge part of the tech supply chain.
是科技供應鏈的一個重要部分。
33:34
All of them getting sizable tariffs from the Trump administration.
這些國家都面臨川普政府課徵的可觀關稅。
33:37
So, it's going to be a balancing act obviously for China as it tries to rebalance its economy to
所以，顯然對中國來說，這將是一項平衡之舉，因為它試圖重新平衡經濟以
33:41
boost domestic consumption to take up its excess industrial over capacity.
刺激國內消費，來吸收其過剩的工業產能。
33:47
You have to watch what the markets are going to do today because the markets here in
你必須關注市場今天會怎麼走，因為這裡的市場
33:49
Hong Kong and in China onshore were on holiday on Friday.
香港和中國內地股市週五都在休市。
33:54
They didn't take the brunt like the US markets did on Friday.
它們沒有像美國股市在週五那樣遭受重創。
33:57
And also, you have to watch the yuan, the onshore yuan, the currency essentially weakening to its lowest
此外，你還必須關注人民幣，也就是在岸人民幣，該貨幣基本上已貶值至
34:03
level uh since February.
自二月以來的最低水位。
34:06
And that is one concern that they could potentially and they haven't so far.
這是一個他們可能採取但目前尚未採取的擔憂。
34:09
They've kept the yuan stable.
他們一直維持人民幣穩定。
34:10
They could potentially weaponize the yuan and weaken the yuan further.
他們可能會將人民幣當作武器，並讓人民幣進一步貶值。
34:13
Stephen, it could be ugly.
Stephen，情況可能會很糟糕。
34:15
Looking forward to your coverage.
期待您的報導。
34:17
Steen angle there out of Hong Kong as we make our way towards the Asian trading
Steen 從香港發來的報導，我們正朝著亞洲交易時段前進。
34:20
Lisa, Vietnam in play as well.
Lisa，越南也在名單上。
34:21
46% levy on the country.
對該國課徵 46% 的稅。
34:24
They have come to the table, the negotiating table.
他們已經坐上談判桌了。
34:26
This to me is the true test of what the ultimate goal is.
對我來說，這才是對最終目標的真正考驗。
34:30
Is it zero tariffs across the board or is this actually renegotiating a new world order having
是全面零關稅，還是這其實是在重新談判一個涉及貿易逆差的新世界秩序？
34:35
to do with the trade deficit?
涉及貿易逆差？
34:38
Because even if you drop rates to zero on both sides, do you remedy a trade deficit?
因為即使雙方都將稅率降至零，你能解決貿易逆差的問題嗎？
34:42
Based on the goods the US would be buying from Vietnam versus the goods uh that Vietnam potentially would be buying
根據美國將從越南購買的商品，以及越南可能從美國購買的商品
34:47
from the US.
來自美國的部分。
34:48
Joining us now to discuss, I'm pleased to say, Robert Koigberger of Grammar Funds Management, a global
現在很高興邀請到 Grammar Funds Management 的 Robert Koigberger 加入我們討論，這是一家
34:53
investment management firm focused on emerging markets.
專注於新興市場的全球投資管理公司。
34:56
Robert, welcome to the program, sir.
Robert，歡迎來到節目。
34:57
It's always good to get your insight on things.
很高興能聽聽您對事物的見解。
35:00
A lot of people are assuming that this could lead to a disinflationary shock for the rest of
許多人認為這可能對世界其他地區造成通貨緊縮衝擊
35:04
the world.
對世界其他地區造成通貨緊縮衝擊。
35:05
XUS, what does that mean for the kind of rate sensitive economies that you cover on a daily basis?
XUS，這對於您日常所追蹤的利率敏感型經濟體來說意味著什麼？
35:11
Good afternoon, Jonathan.
Jonathan，午安。
35:14
Look, I think uh the events of the last couple days have just proven out what we've known in emerging markets
呃，我認為過去幾天發生的事件，正好印證了我們在新興市場早已知道的事
35:14
Thank you for having me.
謝謝您的邀請。
35:18
for for quite some time that when developed markets get sick or get a cold that, you know, it's the the emerging
也就是說，當已開發市場生病或感冒時，你知道，最終住院的會是新興
35:24
markets that end up going to the hospital.
市場。
35:27
So, you know, what we see what the implications are, you know, similar to what we always see in emerging
所以，你知道，我們看到的影響是，你知道，類似於我們在新興市場經常看到的情況
35:31
markets, which is there's winners and there's losers.
市場，也就是有贏家也有輸家。
35:34
Um, and it's being able to pick through those and figure out, you know, where to invest and where not
嗯，而這就是要有能力從中篩選，並弄清楚，你知道，哪裡該投資、哪裡不該
35:38
to invest as you and I have talked about in the past and and really how to invest in the asset class.
投資，正如你我過去談論過的，以及真正該如何投資這個資產類別。
35:45
Robert, there's a real question about the rate reaction function at a time where a Fed chair Jay
Robert，關於聯準會主席 Jay Powell 在上週出來表示，「看吧，我們必須擔心我們的雙重使命，而通膨是其中一個非常重大的
35:49
Powell came out on Friday and said, "Look, we have to be worried about our dual mandate and inflation is a very big
部分。」在這個時間點，關於利率反應機制確實存在一個疑問。
35:55
part of that." How much does that tie the hands of emerging markets also as they get the flu with the US coughing?
這對新興市場的束縛有多大，尤其當它們受到美國打噴嚏（經濟動盪）的影響而染上流感（陷入困境）時？
36:04
Look, I mean, uh, emerging markets, you know, go back to co, emerging markets never really had the, uh, the luxury to
聽著，我是說，呃，新興市場，你知道，回到過去，新興市場從來沒有真正擁有，呃，那種奢侈去
36:11
figure out, you know, whether inflation was going to be transitory or not.
弄清楚，你知道，通膨究竟會不會是暫時性的。
36:16
And, and I think that's the case, uh, today that emerging market central banks,
而且，我認為今天的情況也是如此，新興市場的央行、
36:18
emerging market economies, and emerging market corporates are much more immature than they were 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago.
新興市場經濟體，以及新興市場企業，都比 5 年、10 年、15 年、20 年前要不成熟得多。
36:25
And quite frankly, the shocks that that we've had to deal with in emerging markets are less idiosyncratic.
坦白說，我們在新興市場必須應對的衝擊，其特殊性（idiosyncratic）也降低了。
36:32
You know, if you go back 35 years ago and we had things like the tequila crisis and
你知道，如果回到 35 年前，我們經歷過像龍舌蘭酒危機（Tequila crisis）和
36:34
the vodka crisis and the capinia crisis.
伏特加危機（Vodka crisis）以及卡皮尼亞危機（Capinia crisis）這樣的事情。
36:37
Now it's stuff coming from from developed markets.
現在則是來自已開發市場的衝擊。
36:40
So within emerging markets now it's about similar to developed markets or what are strategies
所以在新興市場中，現在的情況與已開發市場相似，或者說有哪些策略是你需要思考、又有哪些策略是你不該採用的？
36:44
that you want to think about what are strategies you don't.
哪些策略是你需要思考、又有哪些策略是你不該採用的。
36:47
So for us it's okay we think rates are going lower.
對我們來說沒問題，我們預期利率將會走低。
36:49
We'd rather have investment grade that has duration.
我們寧可持有具備存續期間的投資等級債券。
36:52
We think there's a higher probability of recession.
我們認為經濟衰退的機率更高。
36:54
We'd rather not have high yield.
我們寧可不持有高收益債券。
36:56
We'd rather be in investment grade.
我們寧可投資於投資等級債券。
36:57
quite frankly, we're not convinced that that local markets or foreign currency in in emerging markets
坦白說，我們並不認為新興市場的本地市場或外幣部位
37:01
is where we're going to be want to be in the medium to to long term.
是我們在中長期內想要投資的標的。
37:06
Um, but as we've talked about in the past, I mean, I I really think that investors need to
嗯，但正如我們過去所談到的，我真的認為投資人需要
37:10
quit thinking about emerging markets as yes, no, beta, no beta, and think more about beta agnostic and ways to build
停止用「有沒有」beta 的角度看待新興市場，而要更著重於「不挑選 beta」的策略，以及如何在投資組合中建立
37:17
resilience and optionality and agility into the portfolio.
韌性、選擇權與靈活性。
37:21
Robert, you work closely with Muhammad.
Robert，你與 Muhammad 合作密切。
37:23
I'm pleased to say Muhammad is alongside us.
我很榮幸地說，Muhammad 也與我們同在。
37:25
Muhammad Alen, just to come back to you and think about some of the options available to
Muhammad Alen，回到你身上，思考一下某些國家和某些公司可用的選項。
37:27
certain countries and certain companies.
certain countries and certain companies.
37:29
Can we just sit on China just for a bit longer?
Can we just sit on China just for a bit longer?
37:31
Muhammad, the options available to them, retaliate, devalue the currency, concede, or do they just hit
Muhammad, the options available to them, retaliate, devalue the currency, concede, or do they just hit
37:38
What are you expecting them to do?
What are you expecting them to do?
37:40
And that's the big question because the the view was, as you know, John, that they have the ability to do a
And that's the big question because the the view was, as you know, John, that they have the ability to do a
37:47
bazooka stimulus.
bazooka stimulus.
37:49
They have the ability to reform in a major way their growth model, but they wanted to see what
They have the ability to reform in a major way their growth model, but they wanted to see what
37:54
environment they're going to be operating in.
environment they're going to be operating in.
37:56
Now they know what environment they're going to be operating in.
Now they know what environment they're going to be operating in.
38:00
It's a much tougher environment in which their growth model which dependent on the rest of the world
It's a much tougher environment in which their growth model which dependent on the rest of the world
38:04
is even less potent.
is even less potent.
38:08
So the hope is you're going to get not just retaliate or deescalate visa
So the hope is you're going to get not just retaliate or deescalate visa
38:12
via take measures that they have needed to take for a long time.
via take measures that they have needed to take for a long time.
38:20
And that includes being much more aggressive to deal with the property sector.
And that includes being much more aggressive to deal with the property sector.
38:25
Robert, from your perspective, given that fiscal is a lever that China potentially has
羅伯特，從你的角度來看，考量到財政是中國潛在可運用的槓桿
38:28
and has shown willingness to execute, do you see countries in the developing market that are more exposed to China
且中國已展現執行意願，你是否認為在發展中國家中，對中國曝險較高的國家
38:36
are actually in a better position if they more closely align themselves with China?
若更親近中國，是否真的處於更有利的位置？
38:43
Seen for for for quite some time.
這現象已存在好一段時間了。
38:46
And we think about winners and losers.
而我們在思考誰是贏家、誰是輸家。
38:48
I mean, there was a big move uh of manufacturers that were manufacturing in China to
我的意思是，曾有大批製造商將生產線從中國移出
38:50
places like like Vietnam.
轉往越南等地。
38:53
And so, it's been very difficult.
因此，過程非常艱難。
38:55
I mentioned on the show last year that a friend had moved all of their production from China to
我去年在節目上提過，有位朋友將所有產能從中國移往
38:59
Vietnam.
越南。我當時說：「那一定很難吧。」他回答：「其實員工都一樣。」嗯，當
38:59
And I said, "Well, that must be really difficult." And he said, "Well, it's all the same people." Um, and when
我在墨西哥，也就是去年十一月美國大選隔天，我們確實察覺到這個想法：墨西哥人
39:03
I was in Mexico the day after the US election in November, you know, we really detected this notion that the
想確保沒有非墨西哥公司冒充成墨西哥公司。
39:10
Mexicans wanted to make sure that there weren't non-Mexican companies pretending to be Mexican.
嗯，也就是說
39:15
Um so i.e.
防止中國廠商到墨西哥設廠，這讓穆罕默德想到一個問題，很多人
39:17
Chinese coming to Mexico to do manufacturing which raises this question Muhammad and a lot
一直對此感到疑惑。
39:21
of people have been wondering about this.
很多人對此一直感到疑惑。
39:23
Is this really going to delobalize and create a real problem for the developing markets or will there just be
這真的會導致去全球化，並對新興市場造成實質問題嗎？還是只會
39:29
really concrete new alliances that get struck and it's one of the reasons why people are wondering okay how Europe
形成真正具體的新聯盟？這也是為什麼人們會好奇歐洲
39:35
responds is going to be really important how China responds is going to be really important but also Vietnam and Thailand
將如何應對非常重要的原因，中國如何應對也同樣重要，還有越南、泰國
39:41
and Malaysia.
以及馬來西亞。
39:43
I mean what you're going to see is fragmentation.
我的意思是，我們將看到的是碎片化。
39:46
You're going to see pipes built around the western dominated system.
你將看到圍繞著西方主導體系建立的管道。
39:50
That's going to include bilateral pipes, multilateral pipes.
這將包括雙邊管道、多邊管道。
39:54
You're going to see regionalism becoming even more important.
你將看到區域主義變得更加重要。
39:58
And then when you come to the multilateralism or the globalization
而當談到我們過去習慣的多邊主義或全球化時，
40:02
we've been used to that at best is going to be managed like globalization.
充其量將會是被管理的全球化。
40:07
Managed meaning that you will have recip reciprocity issues.
所謂「被管理」，意味著你將面臨互惠對等（reciprocity）的問題。
40:13
light meaning no longer the ever closer integration of markets.
「淡化」意味著不再有市場的日益緊密整合。
40:17
So it's got to be this spaghetti ball that we talk about of relationships that countries have
所以，這必定會變成我們所說的「義大利麵球」，也就是各國之間
40:22
regionally and multil and and internationally.
在區域、多邊及國際層面所建立的關係網絡。而這將是跨國企業發現極難駕馭的局面。
40:26
And it's something that multinationals are going to find really hard to navigate.
這將是跨國企業發現極難駕馭的局面。
40:31
No longer are we going to a world where you standardizing regulation where standards
我們將不再走向一個標準化法規、各國標準一致的世界。
40:36
are similar across countries.
各國標準一致的世界。
40:39
You're going to have to be very specific in each of the jurisdictions you're
企業必須在營運的每個司法管轄區採取非常具體的做法。
40:41
operating in.
營運的每個司法管轄區採取非常具體的做法。
40:42
Lisa, Vietnam is such a great example of all of this.
莉莎，越南正是這一切的絕佳範例。
40:46
A case study we can all explore in the days and weeks to come.
這是我們在未來幾天乃至幾週可以共同探討的案例研究。
40:48
The wage differential in certain countries is so so low, high relative to the United States to move a
某些國家的工資差距相對於美國而言極低，足以讓雇主將工廠遷回美國本土接手生產。
40:54
factory and have the employers take over production right here domestically in the US.
讓雇主將工廠遷回美國本土接手生產。
40:58
You've got to ask some big questions about how difficult it's actually going to be to move factories
即使關稅如此之高，你仍須提出一些重大問題：遷移工廠的實際難度究竟有多大？
41:03
even with a tariff that large.
即使關稅如此之高。
41:06
Taking it a step further, how many C companies are going to decide in the United States,
更進一步來說，究竟有多少家企業會決定留在美國？
41:09
look, it's worth it to pay the tariffs rather than to move the factory over here?
認為支付關稅比將工廠遷至美國更划算？
41:13
And then, by the way, if the United States is counting on revenue from those tariffs to actually boost the
此外，順帶一提，如果美國一方面指望靠這些關稅收入來增加整體預算，同時又在減稅，
41:19
overall budget at the same time that they're cutting taxes, what's the offramp to take off those tariffs in the
未來要如何找到退場機制來取消這些關稅？
41:25
This is the reason why tariffs tend to be very, very sticky.
這就是為什麼關稅往往非常、非常難以動搖的原因。
41:29
So, Jent, just to ask you one final question for both of you, and Robert, I'll come to
那麼，Jent，最後想請教你們兩位一個問題，Robert，我會先請
41:31
you first.
你先回答。
41:32
The rules of the game aren't clear.
遊戲規則並不明確。
41:34
can change radically from one government to the next.
可能會在不同政府之間發生劇烈變化。
41:38
And this time I'm not describing an emerging market.
這一次我描述的不是新興市場。
41:39
I'm describing the biggest economy on the planet.
我描述的是地球上最大的經濟體。
41:42
What is the lesson that you can offer people from years of navigating EM to navigate countries that
你能提供什麼心得，讓大家運用多年來在新興市場的經驗，來應對那些
41:48
are starting to take on characteristics in DM?
開始具備已開發市場特徵的國家？
41:52
Look, I mean, the highest conviction theme that we've had from a top- down perspective lately has been volatility.
聽著，從自上而下的角度來看，我們近期信念最強的主題就是波動性。
41:59
There's been so much uncertainty going into this week.
進入本週前有太多的不確定性。
42:01
There's certainly not any less uncertainty going into to next week and volatility should be expected.
進入下週不確定性肯定沒減少，波動性應該在預期之中。
42:07
Now, there was a time when people belly ache that there was no volatility and it was difficult to make market and trade
曾幾何時，人們抱怨沒有波動性，導致難以做市和交易
42:12
trade markets.
交易市場。
42:13
Um, and we think that volatility can be your friend if if you embrace it and you can embrace it in the
嗯，我們認為如果你能擁抱波動性，那麼波動性就能成為你的朋友，而你可以在
42:17
public markets by planning the trade and trading the plan, but also in the hybrid going to to private markets where you
公開市場中透過規劃交易並按計畫執行來擁抱它，同時在邁向私募市場的混合領域中也是如此，在那裡你
42:23
can start thinking about getting equity-like returns for doing highly structured transactions with a lot of
可以開始思考，透過執行高度結構化的交易並提供大量
42:28
collateral.
抵押品，來獲得類似股權的報酬。
42:30
Let's sit on returns and I would say dependable returns.
讓我們談談報酬，我會說是可靠的報酬。
42:33
Muhammad, there's a generation of US-based investors that only know up and to the
穆罕默德，有一代美國投資者只見過上漲和
42:36
right.
右邊（持續上漲）。
42:37
Stocks go higher.
股價上漲。
42:39
They correct, they dip, you buy that said dip.
它們會回檔、會下跌，你就買進那波下跌。
42:42
And they've benefited from the post-war system that's had the United States at
而他們受惠於戰後體系，該體系讓美國成為
42:45
the epicenter of it.
其核心。
42:47
Do you think that we need to rethink return assumptions, rethink equity markets in the United
你認為我們是否需要重新思考報酬預期、重新思考美國的股票市場，
42:52
States if we're really to rethink the system?
如果我們真的要重新思考這個體系？
42:56
I think if you have to rethink the system, you're not just rethinking the returns, you're rethinking the
我認為如果你必須重新思考這個體系，你不只是在重新思考報酬，你是在重新思考
43:03
volatility, as Robert just said, and you're rethinking the correlations.
波動性，正如羅伯特剛才所說，還有你在重新思考相關性。
43:10
So, you're rethinking the three basic elements that go into asset allocation.
所以，你正在重新思考構成資產配置的三個基本要素。
43:13
And if you do that, you're going to be pushed much more into a barbell.
如果你這麼做，你將會被推向更多地採用槓鈴策略。
43:17
Over here will be your relatively safe fixed income returns and over here will be your high conviction namespecific
這邊是你相對安全的固定收益回報，那邊則是你高信念的個股。
43:27
well ststructured as Robert said collateralize if you can get it and what you're going to do much less of in the
結構良好，正如羅伯特所說，如果能取得的話，最好是有抵押擔保的，而你將大幅減少配置的是
43:33
middle is the blind um benchmark or index buying that has that worked so
中間這塊，也就是盲目地追蹤基準或指數買進，這種做法在
43:41
well when everything was going up.
市場全面上漲時運作得非常好。
43:46
So, so I think if you do remodel the global system, you're going to have to revisit
所以，我認為如果你真的重塑全球體系，你將必須重新審視
43:49
returns, correlations, and volatility, and you're going to have to revisit some really basic elements of asset
回報、相關性和波動性，而且你將必須重新審視一些資產配置中非常基本的要素。
43:57
Muhammad, this was great.
穆罕默德，這非常精彩。
43:57
You're going to stick with us.
請繼續留在節目中與我們在一起。
44:00
A special thanks to Robert Konisberger of Grammar Funds Management, the latest on emerging
特別感謝 Grammar Funds Management 的 Robert Konisberger，關於新興市場的最新看法。
44:04
Lisa, a whole new world potentially that might undermine this shift to index funds for so many decades
莉莎，這可能是一個全新的世界，或許會顛覆數十年來轉向指數基金的趨勢，
44:09
at the point where people had really counted on the ballast of many different companies.
在人們真的已經依賴許多不同公司作為壓艙石的這個時間點。
44:14
How that could get upended if this really turns into which companies actually insulated and which is and
如果這真的演變成區分哪些公司真正受到保護、哪些沒有，這樣的局勢將如何被顛覆
44:19
we've seen some of this differentiation recently in markets.
我們最近在市場上已經看到一些這樣的分化
44:23
Equity futures start trading in about 16 minutes time.
股價指數期貨將在約16分鐘後開始交易
44:25
Up next on the program, the White House isn't blinking.
接下來節目中，白宮不會讓步
44:30
I see no reason that we have to price in a recession.
我看不出有任何理由必須將經濟衰退納入定價考量
44:37
I reject that the uh assumption.
我反對這個假設
44:38
I there doesn't have to be a recession.
不一定非得發生經濟衰退
44:41
The you know who knows how the market is going to react the in in a day in a week.
誰知道市場在一天或一週後會如何反應
44:47
Up next on the program, Neil Data of Renmack live from New York City.
接下來節目中，Renmack的Neil Data在紐約市為您現場連線
44:51
You're watching Blind TV.
您正在收看Blind TV
44:55
[Music] You have had a number of games overseas
[音樂] 您近年來在海外打了多場比賽
45:10
in recent years and in fact you opened the season going to the opening game in Brazil.
事實上您本賽季開季就前往巴西參加開幕戰
45:15
So do you expect to do more overseas games and is that a part of your strategy?
那麼您是否預期會舉辦更多海外賽事？這是否為您策略的一部分？
45:21
Um we uh had five last year.
嗯，我們去年舉辦了五場
45:23
We expect to have eight this year uh which will be the highest we've ever had.
我們預期今年將舉辦八場，這將會是我們有史以來最多的。
45:27
Our hope would be some at some stage to get to 16 games um in the next few years.
我們希望能在未來幾年內達到十六場比賽的目標。
45:33
Uh we think we could do that.
嗯，我們認為我們可以做到。
45:34
I think it's an indication of the popularity of our game.
我認為這顯示了我們比賽的受歡迎程度。
45:39
Every time we take our game to a new market, Brazil's a great example of it.
每當我們將比賽帶到一個新市場，巴西就是一個很好的例子。
45:43
The fans go crazy for it.
球迷為之瘋狂。
45:44
They sold out the tickets in less than 90 minutes.
們在不到90分鐘內就售罄了所有門票。
45:47
Uh people had a wonderful time.
嗯，人們度過了一段美好的時光。
45:49
It was the talk of the town.
這成了當地的熱門話題。
45:49
And I think it will be the basis and the sort of the match that lights uh the excitement uh and the popularity of
我認為這將成為奠定基礎的那場比賽，點燃了當地的熱情與我們比賽的受歡迎度，
45:56
the game in that market as well as what we're doing around the world.
以及我們在全球各地的推廣活動。
46:02
So we're very excited by it.
因此，我們對此感到非常興奮。
46:03
It's it's just one element of that strategy.
這只是該策略的一部分。
46:05
You need to have television.
你需要電視轉播。
46:07
You need to have activity and participation in the sport and flag football is a big part of that.
你需要運動的活動與參與，而旗式橄欖球（flag football）正是其中重要的一環。
46:11
So all of those factors I think are going to be what I we think will be a very successful formula to be a global
所以，我認為所有這些因素，將成為我們眼中實現全球化的一個非常成功的方程式
46:18
Do you ever envision having a team that's based overseas in Mexico City or in London?
您是否曾設想過在墨西哥城或倫敦等海外地區設立一支球隊？
46:24
Listen, we've talked an awful lot about it and I think um there are markets that could uh without
聽著，我們已經討論過很多次了，我認為有些市場
46:29
question support uh an NFL franchise.
無疑能支撐一支 NFL（美式足球聯盟）球隊。
46:36
In case you missed it on Bloomberg Surveillance, I worry less about AI taking my job.
如果您錯過了《彭博市場觀察》（Bloomberg Surveillance）的節目，我對於 AI 搶走我的工作較不擔憂。
46:42
I worry more about someone who uses AI really well taking my job.
我更擔心的是那些善用 AI 的人會搶走我的工作。
46:45
AI is still not going to have the human instinct and the judgment that you're going to need to have.
AI 仍然無法具備您所需的人類直覺與判斷力。
46:50
You're still going to need to do oversight.
您仍然需要進行監督。
46:51
There's a human in the loop, but now that developer is going to have a companion.
雖然仍需人類參與其中，但現在這位開發者將會擁有一位助手。
46:55
And so what AI will allow us to do is not just go do things that humans don't do as well, but actually do
因此，AI 將賦予我們的能力，不僅是去執行人類不擅長的事務，而是實際地
47:00
things that humans don't have the time to get done.
完成人類沒有時間完成的工作。
47:03
Don't miss Bloomberg Surveillance live every weekday.
千萬別錯過每週一至週五現場直播的《彭博市場觀察》。
47:06
Bloomberg brings you breaking news 24 hours a day.
Bloomberg 為您提供 24 小時不間斷的即時新聞。
47:10
Powered by more than 3,000 journalists and analysts in more than 100 bureaus across the globe.
由全球 100 多個分社超過 3,000 名記者和分析師提供支援。
47:20
Bloomberg television.
Bloomberg television.
47:22
Context changes everything.
Context changes everything.
47:32
Africa, a region rife with potential for growth and opportunities, but not without its challenges.
Africa, a region rife with potential for growth and opportunities, but not without its challenges.
47:40
Bloomberg highlights the biggest stories, interviewing key players, and reporting
Bloomberg highlights the biggest stories, interviewing key players, and reporting
47:43
on the issues impacting the region.
on the issues impacting the region.
47:47
Join us as we get to the heart of African business, politics, and economics, and
Join us as we get to the heart of African business, politics, and economics, and
47:51
ask the question, what's next?
ask the question, what's next?
47:55
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja and this is Next Africa.
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja and this is Next Africa.
47:57
New episodes every month only on Bloomberg.
New episodes every month only on Bloomberg.
48:12
Live from New York City under surveillance this evening.
Live from New York City under surveillance this evening.
48:17
The White House isn't blinking.
The White House isn't blinking.
48:19
I I I see no reason that we have to price in a recession.
I I I see no reason that we have to price in a recession.
48:23
I reject that the uh assumption I there doesn't have to be a recession.
I reject that the uh assumption I there doesn't have to be a recession.
48:29
The you know who knows how the market is going to react the in in a day in a week.
The you know who knows how the market is going to react the in in a day in a week.
48:35
What we are looking at is building the long-term economic fundamentals for prosperity that I think
我們所關注的是為繁榮奠定長期經濟基礎，我認為
48:41
the previous administration had put us on a course toward financial calamity.
前任政府卻讓我們走上金融災難的道路。
48:45
So here's the latest this evening.
以下是今晚的最新情況。
48:48
The White House rejecting the idea that tariffs will cause a recession.
白宮駁斥了關稅將引發經濟衰退的說法。
48:51
Neil Dutter of Renmack writing, "Security Besson just told you to not hold your
Renmack 的 Neil Dutter 寫道：「Security Besson 剛才告訴你別抱太
48:55
We are still in the escalation phase." Neil joins us now for more.
我們仍處於升級階段。」Neil 現在加入我們深入探討。
48:58
Neil, good evening.
Neil，晚安。
49:00
Good to good to see you.
很高興見到你。
49:00
Good to see you guys, too.
也很高興見到你們。
49:02
Let's get straight into that quote.
我們直接進入那段引述吧。
49:04
What convinces you the White House doesn't blink in a week to come.
是什麼讓你確信白宮在未來一週內不會讓步？
49:08
Well, I don't think they blink because that would be like complete political surrender,
嗯，我認為他們不會讓步，因為那將形同全面的政治投降，
49:13
I mean, that to me is uh something that's not tenable right now for the White House in my opinion.
就我看來，這對目前的白宮來說是難以接受的。
49:21
And I also think you know we were talk I mean Besson himself was talked about the
我們當時在談的，我是說貝森自己也提到
49:23
whole notion of escalate to deescalate.
以升級來降溫的概念。
49:25
Deescalate to what?
降溫到什麼程度？
49:28
I mean uh free trade.
我是說，自由貿易。
49:28
I mean I think I think that's one of the reasons why the stock market's not down even more is because there's
我想，這也是為什麼股市沒有跌得更慘的原因之一，是因為
49:33
this expectation among some equity investors that you know that we're going to get some kind of like free trade kind
有些股票投資人預期，我們會達成某種類似自由貿易的
49:40
of uh wheeling and dealing going on here.
交易在此上演。
49:43
And I just don't I mean Trump's heart is not in that in my opinion.
但我認為，川普的心思並不在此。
49:48
I mean, he's a mercantalist.
我是說，他是個重商主義者。
49:50
That's what he believes.
這就是他的信念。
49:50
So, this idea of holding out hope for uh some kind of great trade negotiation, I mean, what does you know,
所以，這種寄望於某種偉大貿易談判的想法，我是說，你知道，
49:56
V Vietnam, they're they're lowering their tariffs.
越南，他們正在降低關稅。
49:59
We'd still be running a bilateral trade deficit with them because we're a richer country.
我們對他們仍會維持雙邊貿易逆差，因為我們是更富裕的國家。
50:04
So, um you know, it's very difficult to kind of negotiate in good faith when they put
所以，你知道，當他們提出那樣的關稅稅率以及計算方式時，很難進行誠信談判。
50:08
out the kind of tariff rates that they did and the way they calculated them.
所以，你知道，當他們提出那樣的關稅稅率以及計算方式時，很難進行誠信談判。
50:11
So, um, you know, you either think tariffs are a means to an end or you think the tariffs are an end in and of
所以，你知道，你要嘛認為關稅是一種達成目的的手段，要嘛認為關稅本身就是目的。
50:17
And I tend to think it's the latter.
我傾向於認為是後者。
50:19
Right now, pretty much every adviser on every morning show this morning came out and said the exact same
現在，今天早上幾乎每個晨間節目的顧問都出來說了完全一樣的
50:23
They're probably going to stick, but we're going to have a better future at the end.
它們可能會持續存在，但最終我們將擁有更美好的未來。
50:27
They never backed away from the tariffs or said that, "Yeah, we're reaching some sort of negotiation." Why
他們從未在關稅上讓步，或說：「是的，我們正在達成某種談判。」你認為
50:31
do you think the markets aren't believing them?
市場為什麼不相信他們？
50:35
They don't like trade.
他們不喜歡貿易。
50:38
The market likes trade.
市場喜歡貿易。
50:38
It's just that simple.
就是這麼簡單。
50:40
What do you think happens when markets start to believe them?
你認為當市場開始相信他們時會發生什麼事？
50:44
when then you get the sort of financial acceler I mean right typically the market's basically a passive informant
你就會得到那種金融加速器，我是說，通常市場基本上是個被動的線民，
50:50
right the stock market your share price of your firm doesn't tell anything about your company you don't already know but
對吧，股市、你公司的股價並不會透露任何你原本不知道的關於你公司的資訊，但
50:56
you're getting to a point now where I think the market will take on more of a role of like an active informant where
你現在正走到一個階段，我認為市場將扮演更積極的通報者角色，它會開始彙總宏觀風險因素與結果，並告訴你未來的走向，然後接著宏觀...
51:01
it begins aggregating macro risk factors and outcomes and it tells you about the future and um then the mac then the
股市確實開始扮演這種宏觀角色，這大致就是我們目前的處境，所以如果股市下跌
51:07
stock market does kind of take on this macro role and that's kind of where we are so if the stock market goes down
這會導致金融條件收緊，加劇原本已存在的不確定性，
51:12
that creates a way of tightening financial conditions, exacerbating the uncertainty that's already out there,
並且你會持續陷入負面回饋循環，直到政策當局讓投資人轉移其關注點為止。
51:18
and you continue to have a negative feedback loop until policy uh gets investors to shift their attention.
是的，尼爾，如你所知，有句名言說市場可以形塑它們所預期的事件，而這在未來幾天金融市場的表現上很可能
51:24
Yeah, Neil, as you know, there's a famous line that markets can shape the events they anticipate, and that could
就是如此。
51:28
be the case with financial markets over the coming days for sure.
我們肯定可以用關稅來壓力測試某些特定理論。
51:32
I think we can stress test some certain theories with tariffs.
我們已經聽夠了行政部門的說法。
51:34
We've heard a lot from the administration.
關稅在某些層面、某些情況下是可以發揮作用的，我也一直在閱讀和你一樣的
51:37
Tariffs in some respects, some regards can work in a situation and I've been reading the same
研究，當需求水平夠低，而國內產能夠
51:41
research you've been reading where the level of demand is sufficiently low and the domestic capacity is sufficiently
高時。
51:46
Tariffs can work.
它可以支持國內需求，並促成一種情況，讓我們有
51:48
It can support demand domestically and feed into a situation where we have the capacity
可用的產能。
51:51
available to us.
當你採取這種如此廣泛的做法，就像我們過去一週左右看到的這種方式，
51:53
When you take this approach so broad-based like the approach we saw in the last week or so,
當你採取這種如此廣泛的做法，就像我們過去一週左右看到的這種方式，
51:57
it's difficult to imagine any other scenario apart from a negative supply shock at least in the near term.
很難想像除了負面供給衝擊之外的任何其他情境，至少在短期內是如此。
52:04
Can you imagine a better situation?
你能想像比這更好的情況嗎？
52:05
No, I mean tariffs are a negative supply shot.
不，我的意思是，關稅是一種負面供給衝擊。
52:08
If you wanted to do some sort of targeted um tariff, okay, but that's not what's
如果你想針對性地實施某種關稅，好吧，但這並不是目前
52:10
going on.
正在發生的情況。
52:12
These are broad-based sweeping tariffs um sometimes against countries for which there's no domestic
這些是廣泛且 sweeping 的關稅，有時是針對那些國內
52:17
substitute.
沒有替代品的國家。
52:18
I mean, we can't grow coffee here or bananas here and things like that.
我的意思是，我們這裡無法種植咖啡或香蕉之類的東西。
52:22
So, um yeah, I mean, I'm not at all sanguin.
所以，嗯，是的，我一點也不樂觀。
52:26
And as I mentioned before, um I think there's a remarkable level of complacency in both sides of DC in terms
正如我之前提到的，我認為華府（DC）在兩黨之間都存在著一種
52:33
of monetary and fiscal.
關於貨幣和財政政策的驚人自滿情緒。
52:36
Frankly, I mean, you know, Powell's going around telling us how solid the economy and the labor
坦白說，你知道，鮑爾（Powell）到處告訴我們經濟和勞動力
52:39
markets are.
市場有多麼穩固。
52:40
The rate of prime age employment rate is down half a percentage point over the last 6 months.
過去六個月，黃金年齡勞動參與率下降了半個百分點。
52:44
I mean, that's a very rare development outside of recession.
我的意思是，這種情況在經濟衰退之外非常罕見。
52:48
Um and the San Francisco Fed reported that, you know, I mean, if it wasn't for the weather, the
舊金山聯準會也報告指出，您知道，我的意思是，如果天氣沒有影響，
52:52
jobs number would be actually quite quite weak.
就業數據其實會非常非常疲軟。
52:55
Uh meanwhile, um at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, it's already working.
與此同時，在賓夕法尼亞大道1600號（白宮），政策已經在發揮作用了。
52:59
You know, that the jobs number is a sign that things are already working.
您知道，就業數據就是一個跡象，顯示事情已經在運作中。
53:03
So, uh to me, the fact that I mean, what we know for certain Yeah.
所以，對我來說，我們可以確定的事實是，沒錯。
53:09
is that the strike price for the White House on their put and the Fed on their
那就是白宮對其看跌期權（put）的履約價，以及聯準會對其看跌期權的履約價，
53:11
put is much lower than people think.
履約價比大家想像的要低得多。
53:15
And that's even before you get into all this uncertainty around uh around trade
而這甚至還沒有算入所有圍繞貿易的不確定性。
53:17
Certainly no sign of chairman pound stepping in on Friday.
週五肯定沒有鮑爾（Powell）主席介入的跡象。
53:21
Muhammad Alerin alongside us.
穆罕默德·埃爾-埃里安（Muhammad El-Erian）也和我們在一起。
53:22
Muhammad I know you want to jump in.
穆罕默德，我知道你想插話。
53:24
Neil, I want to ask you a question about the US versus the rest of the world.
尼爾，我想問你一個關於美國與世界其他地區的問題。
53:28
If you look at the dollar reaction initially, if you look at the yield reaction US relative
如果你觀察美元最初的反應，如果你觀察美國相對於歐洲、相對於亞洲的收益率反應
53:33
to Europe, relative to Asia, it was all about the US growth falling out of bed much more than the rest of the world.
歐洲相對於亞洲，這完全是因為美國的增長急劇下滑，幅度遠超世界其他地區。
53:40
But I think of the beta for the rest of the world being greater than one.
但我認為世界其他地區的貝塔係數大於一。
53:46
So are we seeing sequentially a process where the market reprices growth outlook for
那麼我們是否正在看到一個循序漸進的過程，市場重新定價增長前景
53:49
the US and then focuses on the rest of the world and reprices that or will the beta stay less than one?
針對美國，然後關注世界其他地區並重新定價，還是貝塔係數將維持在小於一？
53:57
Well, I think what that tells me is that people are assuming that the rest of the world
嗯，我認為這告訴我的是，人們正在假設世界其他地區
54:00
becomes more integrated and that we're pushing trade outside of our borders, in which case you you do get this sort of
變得更加一體化，而我們正在將貿易推向境外，在這種情況下，你確實會得到這種
54:05
capital flight story with the dollar not uh not behaving with its normal sort of safe haven shock absorber role.
資本外逃的情節，美元沒有發揮其正常的避風港緩衝作用。
54:13
That's kind of what that shows me.
這大致就是它向我展示的內容。
54:15
It's actually quite concerning in my opinion.
在我看來，這其實相當令人擔憂。
54:15
Muhammad just getting a post from Bill Aman.
穆罕默德剛收到比爾·阿曼（Bill Aman）的一則貼文。
54:17
I'd love your reaction to it.
我很想聽聽你對此的反應。
54:20
He says the president has an opportunity on Monday to call a timeout and have the
他說總統在週一有機會叫個暫停，爭取時間
54:22
time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system.
來執行並修復不公平的關稅制度。
54:26
Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced economic nuclear winter.
否則，我們將走向一場自我引發的經濟核冬天。
54:31
Muhammad, your thoughts on that statement.
Muhammad，你對這個說法有什麼看法。
54:34
Those are strong words from Bill, especially given what he has been tweeting before.
比爾這番話相當強烈，尤其是考慮到他之前的推文內容。
54:41
So, that's quite a change in in how Bill is seeing um the outlook.
所以，比爾對前景的看法出現了相當大的轉變。
54:45
It's it's it that final paragraph and the notion of a nuclear winter.
關鍵就在最後那段，以及核冬天這個概念。
54:49
These are very strong word coming from someone who initially believed that other countries were going
這些話出自一位最初相信其他國家會
54:55
to come and and negotiate.
出面協商的人之口，分量格外沉重。
54:58
Got a smile from Neil.
尼爾笑了。
54:59
Well, yeah.
嗯，是啊。
55:00
I mean, I think it's look to me is is I think it's foundational.
我的意思是，在我看來，這很根本。
55:03
Honestly, I really do.
老實說，我真心這麼認為。
55:05
I I think this is like a foundational thing.
我認為這就像是一件根本性的大事。
55:07
I mean, someone should go into the White House and play the video of Milton Friedman
我的意思是，應該有人走進白宮，播放米爾頓·傅利曼當年的影片
55:09
talking about the pencil and capitalism and freedom from the 1980s because we all I mean, he was talking at that
他在1980年代談論鉛筆、資本主義與自由，因為我們所有人，我是說，他在「毀滅日」的
55:16
ceremony on Obliteration Day.
那場儀式上談論的正是這些。
55:20
He was talking about uh you know how uh you know there was this young strapping
他談到，嗯，你知道，當年有個年輕力壯、
55:22
looking man you know talking to Oprah about you know when he took out that ad in the uh in the paper about you know
看起來像個男人，你知道的，他跟歐普拉談話，談到他當年在報紙上刊登那則廣告的事，你知道的
55:28
how we're getting ripped off.
我們是怎麼被佔便宜的。
55:31
Remember at the time that was coming off of Plaza Accord.
記得當時正值廣場協議之後。
55:32
We had a massive decline in the dollar.
美元大幅貶值。
55:34
the trade deficit was in fact narrowing and he was still talking about trade deficits now we're getting ripped
貿易逆差其實正在縮小，但他還在談貿易逆差，現在我們被佔便宜
55:39
So um I just think it's foundational.
所以，嗯，我認為這是根本問題。
55:42
This is what he believes.
這就是他的信念。
55:43
If you want if you want if you think that he's some like great free trade advocate I don't know.
如果你想，如果你覺得他是什麼偉大的自由貿易倡導者，我不知道。
55:48
I mean I think he's he believes in mercantalism.
我是說，我認為他相信的是重商主義。
55:52
And you know I mean so you know proceed accordingly.
所以你知道，你知道，你自己看著辦吧。
55:53
That's what this is.
這就是事情的真相。
55:56
Muhammad I got 20 seconds left.
穆罕默德，我剩下20秒。
55:57
Equity futures start trading in just a moment.
股指期貨即將開始交易。
56:00
Any reason to believe that things stabilize from here anytime soon?
有理由相信情況會從現在開始很快穩定下來嗎？
56:04
Not after what I heard in the last 55 minutes, John.
聽完過去55分鐘的內容後，恐怕沒有，約翰。
56:07
If if what we've heard on this show is reflective of the general mood, then we have some pretty tough
如果我們在這個節目上聽到的內容反映了整體氛圍，那麼我們接下來將面臨一些相當嚴峻的時刻。
56:14
times ahead of us.
穩定的時刻。
56:15
Muhammad, appreciate your time as always.
穆罕默德，一如既往感謝您的時間。
56:17
Muhammad Alon of Queens College, Cambridge.
劍橋大學皇后學院的穆罕默德·阿隆。
56:20
A special thanks to Neil Dutch of Renmag.
特別感謝 Renmag 的尼爾·荷蘭。
56:22
Coming up on the program in the second hour, Bob Michael of JP Morgan Asset
接下來在第二小時的節目中，我們將看到摩根大通資產管理部的鮑勃·邁克爾、New Edge Wealth 的卡梅倫·道森、Rabini Macro Associates 的努里爾·拉比尼，以及更多精彩內容。
56:24
Management, Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth, Nuriel Rabini of Rabini Macro Associates, and a whole lot more.
Rabini Macro Associates 的努里爾·拉比尼，以及更多精彩內容。
56:34
Live from New York, this is Bloomberg.
這是來自紐約的彭博現場直播。
56:35
[Music] Behind the bright lights and adrenaline
[音樂] 在職業運動的璀璨燈光與刺激背後，
56:43
of pro sports is an equally exciting world of negotiations and deal making.
是一個同樣令人興奮的談判與交易世界。
56:48
That's what we cover each week on our podcast, The Deal.
這就是我們每週在播客節目《交易》（The Deal）中所報導的內容。
56:52
I love the fact that you have, we say the but I can't say that in Bloomberg.
我喜歡你用了「我們」這個詞，但在彭博我不能這麼說。
56:59
I'm Alex Rodriguez, former baseball player turned business executive.
我是 Alex Rodriguez，前棒球員轉任企業主管。
57:03
and I'm Jason Kelly, a journalist at Bloomberg.
我是 Jason Kelly，彭博社的記者。
57:05
Over the next couple months, we'll hear from all stars like Billy Jean King.
在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將聽到像比利·珍·金這樣的明星的分享。
57:09
Well, what should I learn?
那我應該學什麼？
57:09
What should I do?
我該做什麼？
57:11
I said, learn the business.
我說，去了解這門生意。
57:12
Jay Williams, you're an asset, but how do you become the principal?
Jay Williams，你是一項資產，但要如何成為掌權者？
57:15
Paul Rael, we're going to be the League of Digital and that's why you're going to invest.
Paul Rael，我們將成為數位聯盟，這就是為什麼你要投資。
57:20
Adena Freriedman.
Adena Freriedman。
57:22
I definitely am competitive.
我絕對很有競爭心。
57:23
People don't come up to me on the street and say, "Let's talk about this private equity deal you did
路人不會走上前跟我說：「我們來聊聊你做的那筆私募股權交易」
57:24
David Rubenstein.
David Rubenstein。
57:27
recently." No, nobody does that.
「最近。」不，沒人會這麼做。
57:30
They say, "Let's talk about the team." and so many more.
他們會說：「我們來聊聊球隊。」還有更多。
57:32
Do you need a clap?
你需要掌聲嗎？
57:35
Do it for fun.
當作好玩的。
57:41
In case you missed it on Bloomberg Open interest, finding some sense in these crazy markets.
如果你在 Bloomberg Open Interest 錯過了，別擔心，在這些瘋狂的市場中尋找一些道理。
57:47
I hope they turn around though, you know, because my 401k I'm looking at my 40 my retirement and I'm
我希望情況能好轉，因為我的401k，我看著我的40，我的退休金，我
57:52
thinking, God, how many more decades do I have to your retirement account?
在想，天啊，我還得為我的退休帳戶工作多少個十年？
57:59
I cannot say that enough.
這句話我說多少次都不夠。
58:00
We need to find a new target.
我們需要找到一個新的目標。
58:01
We need to find maybe a a new future.
我們也許需要找一個新的未來。
58:03
I'll be standing next to Paul Sweeney as a greeter at Walmart, you know, in our 70s.
到時候我大概會跟保羅·史威尼（Paul Sweeney）一起站在沃爾瑪當接待員，你知道，在我們七十多歲的時候。
58:09
Don't miss Open interest live weekdays.
別錯過平日的 Open Interest 現場直播。
58:11
Listen carefully.
仔細聽。
58:15
Can you hear the rhythm in the markets?
你聽見市場的節奏了嗎？
58:20
Not just in the syncupations triggered by inflation, but in the prelies leading to global elections.
不僅僅是通膨引發的同步波動，還有全球選舉前的前奏。
58:30
In the dissonance that moves the nikay and the rising course conducted by AI.
在那驅動日經指數（Nikkei）的不和諧音，以及由 AI 指揮的上升行情中。
58:34
There's music in the markets.
市場中蘊含著樂章。
58:38
And if you want to learn to listen for it, we'll show you how.
如果你想學會如何傾聽，我們將告訴你方法。
58:41
Middle East and Africa.
中東與非洲。
58:44
Vibrant resources and high yields investment opportunities abound.
資源豐富、報酬豐厚的投資機會隨處可見。
58:49
Join me on Horizons Middle East and Africa for the stories, news makers, and insight from
加入我在《Horizons Middle East and Africa》，為您帶來這個激動人心的地區的故事、新聞人物以及深入洞察。
58:52
this exciting region.
這個激動人心的地區。
58:55
Now, weekdays only on Bloomberg.
現在，僅限平日於彭博播出。
58:57
in case you missed it on the pulse.
以免您錯過《The Pulse》的內容。
59:01
You know, it's not the it's not the headline grabbing $15 billion bankruptcy.
要知道，這並非那種登上頭條、高達 150 億美元的破產案。
59:07
It's not Leman Brothers.
這不是雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）。
59:08
It's not that.
不是那種情況。
59:10
But what is happening underneath the surface is just frantic activity.
但在水面下進行的活動，簡直是熱火朝天。
59:15
There's a moment in time when real estate gets really interesting.
房地產市場總有那麼一個時刻，會變得格外有趣。
59:21
Now, it's it's here.
現在，這個時刻到了。
59:22
Now or soon?
是現在，還是很快？
59:23
Don't miss the pulse live every weekday.
千萬別錯過《The Pulse》，平日現場直播。
59:27
This is Bloomberg News Now.
這是彭博新聞（Bloomberg News Now）。
59:30
News when you want it, at the touch of a button.
隨時隨地，輕輕一按，新聞立即送上。
59:32
Another volatile day on Wall Street.
華爾街又迎來動盪的一天。
59:33
We're seeing big moves.
我們看到市場出現大幅波動。
59:36
All eyes on Capitol Hill as Democrats and Republicans.
國會山莊（Capitol Hill）萬眾矚目，民主黨與共和黨對峙。
59:38
Today's job numbers casting doubt on the Fed's next move.
今日就業數據令聯準會（Fed）下一步行動充滿變數。
59:42
Inflation remains front and center.
通膨仍是核心焦點。
59:44
And that's news when you want to with Bloomberg News Now.
這就是彭博新聞（Bloomberg News Now）隨時爲您提供的最新消息。
59:46
Get it 24/7 on the Bloomberg business app, bloomberg.com, and anywhere you get your podcasts.
您可透過彭博商業應用程式（Bloomberg business app）、bloomberg.com，以及各大播客平台全天候收聽。
59:51
Bloomberg News Now.
彭博新聞（Bloomberg News Now）。
59:54
Context changes everything.
背景決定一切（Context changes everything）。
59:58
[Music] Wednesday's announcement was a seismic
[音樂] 週三的公告對市場造成巨大衝擊，
1:00:09
shock to the market.
對市場造成巨大衝擊。
1:00:12
It has yet to see the aftershock in the economy.
經濟層面的後續衝擊尚未顯現。
1:00:15
This was bigger than we expected, right?
這次的衝擊比我們預期的要大，對吧？
1:00:17
And I think it essentially bigger than everybody expected.
我認爲這基本上超出了所有人的預期。
1:00:20
If these tariffs stay, all bets off because it changes the whole paradigm.
如果這些關稅持續存在，一切都不好說了，因為這會改變整個格局。
1:00:24
Inflation is going to tick up notably higher on the back of all these terror in the interim.
在此期間，通膨將因此顯著上升。
1:00:30
It doesn't feel transitory.
這感覺並不暫時。
1:00:31
This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Pharaoh, Lisa Abramowitz, and An Marie
這是彭博監聽（Bloomberg Surveillance），由 Jonathan Pharaoh、Lisa Abramowitz 和 An Marie 主持。
1:00:35
Hordern.
Hordern。
1:00:36
Live from New York City this evening, the second hour of a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Starts right now.
今晚從紐約市現場直播，彭博監聽特別版的第二小時現在開始。
1:00:42
Heading into a brand new trading week whips by policy volatility.
在政策波動的衝擊下，迎接全新的交易週。
1:00:48
A major tariff push sending the S&P 500 to its worst week since the pandemic and the
一項重大的關稅推動，使標普 500 指數迎來自疫情以來最糟糕的一週，且
1:00:52
NASDAQ 100 plunging into a bare market.
那斯達克 100 指數暴跌進入熊市。
1:00:54
The president isn't blinking and chair pal isn't racing to step in stressing the need to keep inflation expectations
總統不為所動，而主席鮑爾（Pal）也不急於介入，強調維持通膨預期
1:01:00
well anchored leaving strategists across Wall Street cutting price targets and JP Morgan now forecasting a recession.
穩定錨定的必要性，這讓華爾街的策略師紛紛下調目標價，而摩根大通（JP Morgan）現在預測經濟將陷入衰退。
1:01:08
Mike Foli writing, "The forecasted contraction in economic activity is
Mike Foli 寫道：「預期中的經濟活動收縮
1:01:11
expected to depress hiring and over time to lift the unemployment rate to 5.3%.
將抑制招聘，並隨著時間推移將失業率推升至 5.3%。
1:01:17
This year's bare case very quickly becoming the base case, which is the reason why Wall Street analyst after
今年的最壞情況（bare case）正迅速成為基本情況（base case），這就是為何華爾街分析師
1:01:22
Wall Street analyst has come out and downgraded their expectations for the S&P 500 time and time again.
接二連三地現身並下調對標普 500 指數的預期。
1:01:30
Lori Cavina put out a note uh today actually of RBC Capital.
RBC 資本市場的 Lori Cavina 其實在今天發布了一份報告。
1:01:33
be joining us tomorrow where she said the conversation increasingly is shifting from stagflation to
她明天將加入我們的節目，她表示市場討論焦點正逐漸從停滯性通膨轉移至
1:01:38
recession at a time when people are taking a look at where the off-ramp is right now.
衰退，而此時此刻人們正試圖尋找出路。
1:01:42
It is not coming from President Trump and it is not coming from Fed chair Jay Powell.
這不是來自川普總統，也不是來自聯準會主席鮑爾。
1:01:47
Ever cause Julian Emanuel cutting his price target on the S&P 500 tariffs and turmoil down
這就是朱利安·伊曼紐爾下調標普500指數目標價的原因，關稅與動盪
1:01:51
from 6,800 to 5600.
從6800點降至5600點。
1:01:54
5600 a few months ago sounded very bearish.
幾個月前，5600點聽起來非常悲觀。
1:01:58
Now it sounds bullish in light of what we've seen over the previous two sessions.
考慮到前兩個交易日的表現，現在聽起來反而偏多。
1:02:02
Especially when you have the likes of Stuart Kaiser from Croup saying out saying it wouldn't surprise him to
尤其是像高盛的史都華·凱撒這樣的人表示，看到
1:02:06
see something in the mid4,000s that this doesn't feel like there is a circuit breaker.
中段4000點的水準他不會感到驚訝，這感覺像是沒有熔斷機制。
1:02:11
We also talk about what Lorie Calvina is projecting if it's stagflation.
我們也談到洛莉·卡爾維納對滯脹的預測。
1:02:15
She's talking 4,900.
她提到4900點。
1:02:18
If you're talking recession, the draw down has been going back to the 1930s
如果是經濟衰退，回檔幅度若追溯至1930年代，
1:02:20
something between 277 27% and 32% which would take it down to 4,200 potentially at the low end.
大約在27%到32%之間，這將使指數下探至4200點的低點。
1:02:28
So some pretty bold statements at a time of a growing question mark.
在不確定性日益增加的時刻，這些都是相當大膽的聲明。
1:02:32
What is the endgame here?
最終的結局是什麼？
1:02:33
If you're looking for stability, we're not getting it.
如果你尋求穩定，我們目前並未得到。
1:02:36
Equity futures down and down hard at the open.
股價指數期貨開盤即大幅下跌。
1:02:40
We're negative by close to 5% on the S&P 500.
標普500指數跌幅接近5%。
1:02:42
Coming up this hour, we'll catch up with Bob Michael of JP Morgan Asset Management on
接下來這一小時，我們將採訪摩根大通資產管理的鮑伯·麥可爾，
1:02:45
the Fed's next move.
談談聯準會的下一步行動。
1:02:47
We'll speak to Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth looking for a potential bounce.
我們將與New Edge Wealth的卡麥隆·道森對話，尋找潛在的反彈機會。
1:02:52
And Noriel Rabini of Rabini Macro Associates expecting more market pain.
以及Rabini Macro Associates的諾瑞爾·拉比尼，他預期市場將面臨更多痛苦。
1:02:56
And Danny Burer, more market pain is exactly what we're getting.
Danny Burer，市場確實正經歷更多痛苦。
1:02:59
That's right, John.
沒錯，John。
1:03:00
We have our first read of some of these risk markets this morning with the
今早我們首次讀到這些風險市場的數據，
1:03:02
future trade underway.
期貨交易正在進行中。
1:03:05
It is a clear risk off and uncertainty and fears of recession perhaps with S&P 500 futures
這明顯是避險操作，伴隨著不確定性和對經濟衰退的擔憂，標普500指數期貨
1:03:10
down more than 5%.
跌幅超過5%。
1:03:12
Brent crude down more than two and a half% with the Saudis cutting their price of oil.
布蘭特原油下跌超過2.5%，原因是沙烏地阿拉伯下調了油價。
1:03:17
That's also another recessionary fear of energy is trading off.
這也是另一種對經濟衰退的擔憂，能源類股正在下跌。
1:03:20
We also have a read on FX that's been trading for the past few hours.
我們也觀察到外匯市場的走勢，該市場在過去幾小時一直在交易。
1:03:23
We are at the lows of the evening when it comes to the dollar versus the yen.
在美元兌日圓方面，我們處於今晚的低點。
1:03:27
There is a clear bid into havens that extends to treasury futures too.
資金明顯湧入避險資產，這也延伸至美國公債期貨。
1:03:31
Now, as to where the road map goes for this market, we have these assets open, but in about 2 hours time, we're going
現在，關於這條市場路線圖的走向，雖然這些資產已經開盤，但大約在2小時後，
1:03:38
to get more liquidity injected into the market trade.
市場交易將注入更多流動性。
1:03:41
We're going to get cash treasuries.
現貨公債將開始交易。
1:03:43
They will begin to trade around or so 8:00 p.m.
它們將在美東時間晚上8點左右
1:03:46
Eastern.
開始交易。
1:03:47
Japanese government bonds, those will also trade along with the London Metals Exchange.
日本公債也將開始交易，倫敦金屬交易所也是如此。
1:03:50
Now, the last stop before we really get underway with the Monday trade.
現在，在我們真正開始週一交易前的最後一站。
1:03:57
The one to look out for is 9:15 p.m.
需要留意的時間點是晚上9點15分。
1:03:58
That is when Chinese equity markets will open.
那是中國股市開盤的時間。
1:04:00
The reason John that this is going to be interesting is that China was closed on Friday when they announced
John，這之所以會很有趣的原因是，中國在週五宣布對等關稅 34% 時已經收盤。
1:04:05
those reciprocal tariffs of 34%.
所以 9:15 將是我們首次看到中國股市反應的時間。
1:04:09
So 9:15 that is the first time we will get a look into how we react in Chinese
我們將在 9:15 首次看到中國股市的反應。
1:04:13
Danny, thank you.
Danny，謝謝你。
1:04:14
More from Danny in about 26 minutes time.
大約 26 分鐘後會有更多 Danny 的報導。
1:04:17
Let's just take a beat.
我們先暫停一下。
1:04:18
The size and scope of these moves reminiscent of dotcom, GFC, the pandemic.
這些波動的規模和範圍讓人想起網路泡沫、全球金融危機和疫情。
1:04:23
We're down by 4%.
我們下跌了 4%。
1:04:25
We dropped by almost 10% in just two trading sessions.
僅兩個交易日就下跌了近 10%。
1:04:28
state side waping out more than $5 trillion in market cap in just two trading days.
美國在短短兩個交易日內就蒸發了超過 5 兆美元的市值。
1:04:34
Tyler Kendall joins us now from the nation's capital for more.
Tyler Kendall 現在從首都為我們帶來更多報導。
1:04:36
Tyler, just to come to you, equity futures down another 4 percentage points.
Tyler，直接請教您，股價指數期貨又下跌了 4 個百分點。
1:04:41
Any sign whatsoever that the administration is blinking this weekend.
本週末有任何跡象顯示政府態度軟化了嗎？
1:04:47
Hey, John.
John，你好。
1:04:48
At this point, no.
目前為止，沒有。
1:04:49
The White House is holding firm.
白宮態度依然強硬。
1:04:51
A source familiar telling Bloomberg News that at this point, President Trump is focused
一位向彭博新聞透露消息的人士表示，目前川普總統正專注於
1:04:53
on the long term.
從長遠來看。
1:04:54
That then begs the question, what will it take for the US to negotiate?
這就引出一個問題：美國要什麼條件才願意談判？
1:04:57
And there's a few mitigating factors here as obviously you're covering and we've spoken about
這裡有幾個緩解因素，正如您所報導的，我們也已經討論過多次。
1:05:01
multiple times.
1084.
1:05:02
It appears this White House does have a pretty high tolerance when it comes to the equity markets.
看來這屆白宮對股市的波動有相當高的容忍度。
1:05:07
So they do say they have their eyes on yields.
所以他們確實表示有在關注收益率。
1:05:08
Instead, White House officials keep pointing us to the fact that they think that this is about a long-term
相反地，白宮官員一直強調，他們認為這關乎一個長期的增長議程，即使在面臨嚴重停滯通膨和下行風險之際，他們也希望解決貿易失衡的結構性問題。
1:05:12
growth agenda that they want to address those structural issues when it comes to trade imbalances even amid the sizable
1088.
1:05:18
stagflation and downside risks.
1089.
1:05:21
We should say the White House did confirm this morning that 50 countries have so
應該說，白宮今早證實，目前已有50個國家主動接觸美國進行談判。
1:05:24
far reached out to negotiate with the US.
1091.
1:05:26
Now, President Trump says that he needs to see something phenomenal in order to engage in those negotiations.
現在，川普總統表示，他需要看到「非凡的」成果才願意參與這些談判。
1:05:31
It remains to be seen what uh phenomenal would be, although it does appear that it might take a little bit more than
「非凡」具體指什麼仍有待觀察，但似乎光是降低貿易壁壘可能還不夠，因為這屆政府強調其真正關注的是貿易失衡和赤字。
1:05:36
just lowering trade barriers as this administration says that it's really focusing on trade imbalances and
1094.
1:05:42
deficits.
1095.
1:05:43
John, we could get a firmer idea tomorrow.
John，明天我們可能會有更明確的答案。
1:05:46
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will become the first foreign leader to come face tof face
以色列總理納坦雅胡將成為自關稅公告發布以來，首位與川普總統面對面會談的外國領袖。
1:05:50
with President Trump since the tariff announcement.
1098.
1:05:53
As you well know, Israel uh lowered its tariff barriers ahead of April 2nd to try to get ahead of it, but
眾所周知，以色列在4月2日之前就降低了關稅壁壘，試圖搶先一步，但還是被加徵了17%的關稅。
1:05:58
we're still slapped with a 17% levy.
1100.
1:06:00
Tyler Kendall down in Washington DC, if you are just joining us, just moments ago, equity futures started trading.
華盛頓特區的泰勒・肯德爾，如果您剛加入我們，就在剛才，股票期貨已開始交易。
1:06:08
We had a 10% move in two days.
我們在兩天內出現了 10% 的波動。
1:06:09
We're down another 5% on the S&P 500.
標普 500 指數又下跌了 5%。
1:06:12
On the NASDAQ, down by 5.2.
那斯達克指數下跌 5.2%。
1:06:14
on a Russell.
羅素指數方面。
1:06:15
We're down by six full percentage points.
我們下跌了整整六個百分點。
1:06:18
Bob Michael, the global head of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, writing
摩根大通資產管理公司全球固定收益主管鮑勃・麥可。
1:06:21
Both the administration and Federal Reserve are behaving as though the market moves our business as usual.
政府和聯準會的行為，彷彿市場變動對營運毫無影響。
1:06:26
We cannot believe that the Fed will wait until something breaks before responding.
我們無法相信聯準會會等到有東西出問題才採取行動。
1:06:31
Bob joins us now for more.
現在邀請鮑勃加入我們深入探討。
1:06:31
Bob, good evening.
鮑勃，晚上好。
1:06:34
gfc.com.
gfc.com。
1:06:34
Happy to be here.
很高興來到這裡。
1:06:35
The pandemic frame this moment.
這場疫情框定了當下的時刻。
1:06:37
What is this for you and the team?
對您和團隊來說，這意味著什麼？
1:06:40
Well, I was reading Larry Summers earlier who pointed out that Thursday and Friday
嗯，我之前讀了賴瑞・森默斯的文章，他指出週四和週五。
1:06:43
were backtoback the worst market drops except in three other instances.
是連續兩天跌幅最慘的日子，僅次於另外三個案例。
1:06:50
The 87 stock market crash, 2008 the financial crisis and then 2020 COVID.
分別是 87 年股災、2008 年金融危機，以及 2020 年 COVID 疫情。
1:06:56
So this is a historic period and as you point out we're down another 5%.
所以這是一個歷史性的時期，正如您所指出的，我們又下跌了 5%。
1:07:01
I would tell you in the other three instances the Fed stepped in immediately and cut rates
在其他三個案例中，我會告訴你聯準會立即介入並大幅降息
1:07:06
sizably.
幅度相當大。
1:07:07
So, I think for now, if you go back to Friday, the Fed can talk tough.
所以我認為就目前而言，如果你回到週五，聯準會可以強硬表態。
1:07:12
They have to be looking at this.
他們必須關注這件事。
1:07:15
I don't know if they can even make it to the May meeting before they start bringing rates
我不知道他們是否能撐到五月會議才開始調降利率
1:07:18
At the same time, nothing seems to have broken yet.
與此同時，似乎還沒有任何東西崩潰。
1:07:23
It doesn't seem like things have gotten disorderly yet, despite the margin calls, and there is a
儘管有追繳保證金通知，情況似乎還沒有變得混亂，而且確實有
1:07:28
real concern about inflation picking back up.
通膨重新抬頭的擔憂。
1:07:31
How much can you really reject what Jay Powell said on Friday?
你究竟能多大程度上反對傑伊·鮑爾週五說的話？
1:07:37
Well, you have to reject something he said over the last few years.
嗯，你必須反對他在過去幾年說的某些話。
1:07:40
Remember they talked about the long and variable lags.
記得他們談到過漫長且多變的滯後效應。
1:07:42
So now they're saying they're going to wait for the accident before they respond and then wait for the long and
所以現在他們說他們會等到意外發生才做出回應，然後再等待漫長且
1:07:47
variable lags to take hold.
多變的滯後效應發酵。
1:07:51
I think if you step back and look at the totality of what's going on, you cannot believe that there's nothing
我認為如果你退一步審視全局，你無法相信表面之下
1:07:52
I don't think so.
我不這麼認為。
1:07:57
under the surface that's going to break.
沒有任何東西即將崩潰。
1:08:00
We already know that businesses in the lower rated end of the quality spectrum have been struggling.
我們已經知道品質光譜中評級較低的企業一直在掙扎。
1:08:07
When you look at private credit and look at the percentage of amend extends, it's very
當你觀察私人信貸並查看展期延長的百分比時，這個比例非常
1:08:12
What happens when their cost of funding just ratcheted up another couple percent and they're going to see topline
當他們的資金成本又上升了幾個百分點，而他們將看到營收增長放緩、投入成本上升時，會發生什麼事？
1:08:18
growth come down as well as their input costs go up.
他們的營收增長將會下滑，同時投入成本也將上升。
1:08:22
I think this is a serious moment.
我認為這是一個嚴峻的時刻。
1:08:24
I do not think the Fed can just sit on the sidelines.
我不認為聯準會可以袖手旁觀。
1:08:27
You do believe that there is going to be some kind of policy response.
你確實相信會有某種政策回應。
1:08:29
Does that mean that you are coming in when you saw about a percentage point increase in two days in
這是否意味著，當你看到信貸和高收益信貸的利差在兩天內上升了約一個百分點時，你就會進場？
1:08:34
the spreads in credit and high yield credit?
你看到那種，你知道的走勢，那是自 2020 年以來最大的波動。
1:08:37
You see that kind of you know move that's the biggest going back to 2020.
你是會買進，還是會說在看到某種政策回應的具體行動之前，你都不能參與？
1:08:41
Can you buy it or do you say until you see the whites of some kind of policy responses eyes you can't get
我沒有那麼大的勇氣用客戶的錢去冒險。
1:08:46
involved?
這點我可以告訴你。
1:08:47
I'm not that courageous with my client's money.
我看到正在發生的事情，然後你簡單地做個模型，你會說，嘿，信貸利差從 260 個基點上升到 440 個基點，也許 500 到 800 個基點才是它們應該停在的合理位置。
1:08:51
I'll tell you that much.
如果我們陷入衰退，就是 800 個基點；如果這種情況再持續一週，就是 500 個基點出頭。
1:08:51
I see what's going on and you just simply model and you go, hey, credit
所以，我認為還會有更多震盪清洗。
1:08:56
spreads went from 260 to 440, maybe 5 to 800 over is the correct place for them
Bob，到目前為止，情況還算有序。
1:09:04
to settle.
人們會用「有序」這個詞。
1:09:06
800 if we're in recession, low 500s if this keeps going for another week.
你有沒有看到任何跡象顯示，情況即將變得混亂？
1:09:10
So, I think there's more of a wash out yet to come.
所以，我認為市場還會有一波清洗（殺盤）。
1:09:14
Bob, so far this has been orderly.
Bob，目前為止走勢還算有序。
1:09:15
People will use that word orderly.
人們會用「有序」這個詞。
1:09:17
Have you seen any sign that things are set to become disorderly?
你有沒有看到任何跡象顯示，情況即將變得混亂？
1:09:20
Lisa and I were thinking about the days and depths of the pandemic.
Lisa 和我一直在思考疫情高峰與低谷的那些日子。
1:09:24
There were certain days where risk gapped lower and bond yields actually rose on Treasury
有些日子風險指數驟降，而公債殖利率卻意外上升，
1:09:28
yields and that was a situation that a lot of people just described as selling what you can and not what you want.
這種情況被許多人形容為「賣掉你能賣的，而不是你想賣的」。
1:09:35
Are we going to move into that phase of the selloff in the coming days?
我們在接下來的日子會進入這波拋售的階段嗎？
1:09:39
Orderly is such a wonderful word for complacency, isn't it?
「有序」是形容自滿的一個絕妙詞彙，不是嗎？
1:09:42
And when I think about what's been going on, there's been some widespread acceptance of this.
當我回想發生的一切，這已經廣泛被接受了。
1:09:49
When we've talked to clients, and we've talked to a whole range of clients, most
當我們與客戶交談，涵蓋了各種類型的客戶，大多數人
1:09:52
expected something like this could happen on the tariff side, but hoped it wouldn't.
預期關稅方面可能會發生類似的事情，但希望它不會發生。
1:10:00
And now it's unfolding and now they're a bit frozen.
現在它正在展開，而他們有點不知所措。
1:10:04
Unless we see some sort of policy response from the administration, from Congress, from the
除非我們看到行政部門、國會或聯準會
1:10:09
Fed, I think this wash out has more to go.
提出某種政策應對，否則我認為這波清洗還有得走。
1:10:11
How do you value a company, any asset without knowing the rules of the game?
如果不知道遊戲規則，你要如何評估一家公司或任何資產？
1:10:15
And I think that's what's really, really difficult about this moment, Lisa.
Lisa，我認為這正是此刻非常、非常困難的地方。
1:10:18
When you see economic data, payrolls downside surprise unemployment starts to climb, GDP's bad,
當你看到經濟數據，非農就業數據不如預期、失業率開始攀升、GDP 表現糟糕，
1:10:22
whatever it might be.
不論是什麼數據。
1:10:25
I think you can repric the cycle rather effectively off the back of that.
我認為你可以藉此非常有效地重新定價經濟週期。
1:10:28
Maybe not all at once in the right way.
也許不是一次到位，也不是以正確的方式。
1:10:29
Maybe you overshoot in one direction or the other, but when you don't know the rules of the game, it's
也許你會在某個方向過度反應，但當你不知道遊戲規則時，
1:10:33
very difficult to value an asset.
很難評估一項資產的價值。
1:10:35
Predictability is what companies rely on to actually get their businesses and have longer term plans.
可預測性是企業依賴來營運業務和制定長期計畫的基礎。
1:10:42
You look at this type of scenario and you wonder how do they begin to understand what they can
當您看到這種情景時，您會好奇他們要如何開始了解能從哪裡進口、如何出口，然後您開始思考市場的反應。
1:10:46
import from, how they can export, and then you start thinking about the market reaction.
投資者要如何開始將這些因素納入定價？
1:10:50
How does an investor start to price any of this in?
這也是為什麼人們認為現在是不確定性，但同樣也是因為這不會很快消失。
1:10:53
which is the reason why people think that it's now the uncertainty, but also the fact that
我們談了很多關於股票的事，如果您是剛加入我們的，歡迎您。
1:10:56
this isn't going away anytime soon.
股票期貨大約在11分鐘前開始交易，今晚我們又下跌了3.6%。
1:10:58
We've talked a lot about equities and if you are just joining us, welcome.
為了描述高收益市場發生了什麼事，Lisa 有提到。
1:11:02
Equity futures started trading about 11 minutes ago and we're down 3.6% again this
我們看到高收益債券的利差在短短兩天內（週四和週五）擴大了100個基點。
1:11:05
evening.
但是 Bobby，如果您看427這個水準，從歷史來看427其實相當緊俏。
1:11:06
Just to describe what's been happening in high yield, Lisa touched on it.
對於未來幾週的利差水準，您有什麼看法？
1:11:09
We've seen high yield spreads gap wider by 100 basis points in just two days, Thursday and Friday.
427 是合理的。
1:11:16
But Bobby, if you look at the level 427, historically 427 is actually pretty tight.
回顧起來，我不會稱之為緊俏。
1:11:21
What are you thinking about in terms of spread levels in the weeks to come?
260 才是真正的緊俏。
1:11:26
427 is reasonable.
那非常緊俏。
1:11:27
I wouldn't call that tight in retrospect.
所以我認為對於一個正常的穩態經濟來說，這是合理的。
1:11:29
260 overlooks tight.
我認為如果您正走向任何形式的放緩，您會希望看到融資成本推動至投資等級公司接近10%的水準。
1:11:30
That's very tight.
那是另外的150個基點。
1:11:33
So I think it's reasonable for a a normal steadystate economy.
所以我認為對於一個正常的穩態經濟來說，這是合理的。
1:11:37
I think if you're heading into any kind of slowdown, you want to see the cost of funding to below investment
我認為如果你正步入任何形式的放緩，你會希望看到融資成本降至投資等級以下
1:11:42
grade companies push up towards 10%.
的公司債殖利率推升至接近 10% 的水準。
1:11:45
That's another 150.
那又是另外的 150 個基點。
1:11:48
So 150 basis points or so.
所以大約是150個基點。
1:11:50
Alisa, are we seeing any signs of distress across fixed income?
Alisa，我們在固定收益市場中有看到任何壓力跡象嗎？
1:11:54
Well, I mean, honestly, this the spread blowout and the magnitude of it is the greatest
嗯，老實說，這次的利差擴大幅度是自2020年3月以來最嚴重的。
1:11:56
going back to March of 2020.
回顧到2020年3月。
1:11:59
You take a look at uh credit risk across the globe, you're seeing this similarly,
如果你觀察全球的信用風險，你會看到類似的情況，
1:12:02
particularly with high yields.
特別是在高收益債券方面。
1:12:05
The real question becomes, you know, longer term, how do investors plan?
真正的問題在於，從長遠來看，投資者該如何規劃？
1:12:08
Bob Michael might see a trigger from the other side, but he not buying anytime soon.
Bob Michael 可能會看到另一邊的觸發因素，但他短期內不會買進。
1:12:13
So, it raises this question.
所以，這引出了一個問題。
1:12:14
At what point do you start looking at where the weakest companies are and start planning for a
鑑於目前市場似乎正在定價這個預期，你該在什麼時候開始關注最弱的公司，
1:12:17
default cycle given the fact that right now that seems to be a suggestion that's getting priced in?
並為違約週期做準備？
1:12:24
But the administration has told us you can now analyze everything.
但政府告訴我們，現在可以分析一切了。
1:12:28
Last week you criticized me two weeks ago.
上週你兩週前還在批評我。
1:12:31
You didn't have the details.
當時你沒有這些細節。
1:12:32
Well, here are the details you saw.
好了，這些就是你看到的細節。
1:12:33
So, do you believe them?
所以，你相信嗎？
1:12:34
Do you believe these are the new rules of the game?
你相信這些是新的遊戲規則嗎？
1:12:38
I I believe that a 10% baseline tariff is here to stay.
我相信10%的基準關稅將會持續存在。
1:12:43
I was in Australia a couple months ago.
幾個月前我在澳洲。
1:12:44
I don't know.
我不知道。
1:12:45
They were all saying, "Well, you know what?
他們都在說：「嘿，你知道嗎？
1:12:48
We don't have any real tariffs on the US.
我們對美國其實沒有任何關稅。
1:12:50
We'll escape.
我們可以逃過一劫。
1:12:52
They've got a 10% tariff." Um, so I think there's there's going to be some minimum
他們卻有10%的關稅。」
1:12:56
baseline assessment and I think the administration's playing for the the long run here.
所以我認為會有一些最低的基線評估，而我認為政府正在為長遠布局。
1:13:01
If the rules of the game have changed, does it make US assets less attractive on a relative basis?
如果遊戲規則改變了，相對而言，美國資產的吸引力是否會下降？
1:13:07
I think it does.
我認為是的。
1:13:10
I I think you're going to look at non US economies investing in themselves.
我認為你會看到非美國經濟體在對自身進行投資。
1:13:15
We already saw some of that come out of Germany in the last couple of weeks.
我們過去幾週已經看到德國出現了一些這樣的跡象。
1:13:20
We expect to see more out of the EU.
我們預期會看到更多來自歐盟的行動。
1:13:22
Certainly, that could be a policy response in China.
當然，這也可能是中國的一種政策應對。
1:13:26
They did it after the financial crisis.
他們在金融危機後就這麼做過。
1:13:29
They'll borrow and spend, create more of a domestic economy.
他們會借錢並支出，創造更多的國內經濟。
1:13:31
Bob, you're going to stick with us.
Bob，我們會請你稍後再回來。
1:13:32
I'm pleased to say Bob Michael there of JP Morgan Asset Management.
很高興向大家介紹，摩根大通資產管理公司的 Bob Michael。
1:13:35
Welcome to the program to you all and good evening.
歡迎各位收看我們的節目，大家晚安。
1:13:39
Equity futures opening up lower by 3.7%.
股指期貨開盤下跌3.7%。
1:13:41
Up next on the program, the bulls throwing at the towel.
接下來節目內容，多頭舉白旗投降。
1:13:44
This is potentially recession Elliot if these tariffs remain in place.
如果這些關稅持續實施，Elliot，這可能會導致經濟衰退。
1:13:47
I have sens this bearish sentiment on the rise.
我感覺到這種悲觀情緒正在升溫。
1:13:50
The rest of the world's watching mistake after mistake be made.
世界其他國家正看著一個又一個的錯誤被鑄成。
1:13:53
Up next on the program, Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth live from New York City this evening.
接下來節目，New Edge Wealth 的 Cameron Dawson 今晚從紐約市為我們帶來現場連線。
1:13:58
Good evening.
晚安。
1:14:03
[Music] DraftKings hit a milestone in the second
[音樂] DraftKings 在 2024 年第二季
1:14:14
quarter of 2024.
達到了一個里程碑。
1:14:17
For the first time as a public company, it turns a profit.
這是它作為上市公司以來首次實現盈利。
1:14:22
Is this a new era for DraftKings?
DraftKings 是否正迎來一個新時代？
1:14:24
There's an inflection from when you're cash flow negative and you're operating off of
這是一個轉捩點，從現金流為負、依靠過去的股權募資來營運，
1:14:26
equity raises from the past to when you're self-funded and you're cash flow positive and able to control your
轉變為自我資助、現金流為正，並能更掌控自身
1:14:31
destiny a lot more.
命運的階段。
1:14:33
You've had your first quarters of profitability now.
你們現在已經經歷了首幾個獲利的季度。
1:14:34
Does that take pressure off?
這是否減輕了壓力？
1:14:37
Does it increase pressure?
還是增加了壓力？
1:14:38
I think it increases pressure.
我認為是增加了壓力。
1:14:39
I mean once you start making profits, people expect you to make more and all of a sudden you're valued on a
我的意思是，一旦你開始獲利，人們就會期望你賺更多，突然間你的估值會基於
1:14:44
multiple of those profits as opposed to the theoretical what could be.
這些利潤的倍數，而不是基於潛在的可能性。
1:14:49
So very important.
所以這非常重要。
1:14:49
And I think when you're cash flow negative, you've sold a vision of what the company should be working on
我認為當你處於現金流為負的狀態時，你是在兜售一個關於公司應該致力於什麼的願景，
1:14:53
and you're very focused on working on that and delivering against that.
並且你非常專注於朝著那個方向努力並實現它。
1:14:58
When you've pivoted to profitability, the world of what you can work on is a
當你轉向盈利時，你能著手的工作範圍就變得更廣了。
1:15:00
little bit open and there's a lot of different ideas and it requires more focus than ever to make sure that you
情況稍微開放，存在許多不同的想法，這比以往更需要專注，以確保您
1:15:04
are prioritizing on the most important things that are going to deliver the most value.
優先處理那些能帶來最大價值的最重要事項。
1:15:09
DraftKings solid standing in a booming sector gives them the luxury to play the long game.
DraftKings 在蓬勃發展的產業中穩固的地位，賦予他們從長遠佈局的優勢。
1:15:15
They're not under pressure to cut costs.
他們沒有削减成本的壓力。
1:15:18
When you have really strong revenue growth, you don't need that.
當您擁有強勁的營收增長時，您不需要那樣做。
1:15:20
If you look at where we are today and where we want to be and where we believe we will be, the vast majority
如果您觀察我們現在的處境、我們想要達到的目標以及我們相信將會達到的目標，絕大多數
1:15:25
of the incremental IBITA is not coming from any cost reduction.
的增量 IBITA（息稅折舊攤銷前利潤）並非來自任何成本削减。
1:15:29
It's coming from increased revenue.
而是來自營收的增加。
1:15:31
We don't feel like we need to cut costs because we're growing our revenue so much.
我們不覺得需要削减成本，因為我們的營收增長非常快。
1:15:35
We want to grow our revenue into our existing cost structure and there's no need to reduce
我們希望讓營收增長涵蓋現有的成本結構，只要我們能有效控制成本的增長幅度，
1:15:37
the cost as long as we're being efficient with what we allow our cost growth to look like.
就沒有必要削减成本。
1:15:43
David Weston.
David Weston。
1:15:44
Join me for the next generation of Wall Street Week, telling stories of
加入我，一同參與下一代的《華爾街週刊》，講述來自商業、市場、經濟、
1:15:47
capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech, and climate.
科技和氣候的資本主義故事。
1:15:52
Each week, we'll go on the road for a look at what lies behind the headlines of today and
每週，我們將實地探訪，深入了解今日頭條背後的真相，
1:15:56
what will likely be the headlines tomorrow.
以及明日可能成為頭條的新聞。
1:15:59
Above all else, is a mission.
最重要的是，這是一項使命。
1:16:00
Done nothing but grow immensely.
除了大幅成長之外別無其他。
1:16:04
To me, that's an extraordinary sign.
對我來說，這是一個非凡的跡象。
1:16:05
We can be the change that we want to see.
我們可以成為我們想要看到的改變。
1:16:07
Watch the allnew Wall Street Week.
觀看全新的《華爾街週刊》。
1:16:09
More than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about.
這不僅是您需要知道的資訊，更是您需要思考的議題。
1:16:18
live from New York City this evening.
今晚從紐約市為您現場直播。
1:16:20
Good evening to you all.
大家晚安。
1:16:22
Equity futures trading and they're trading lower.
股指期貨正在交易，目前呈下跌走勢。
1:16:25
We're down and down hard.
我們正在下跌，且跌幅深重。
1:16:26
We're negative by 4% on the S&P.
標普500指數下跌4%。
1:16:27
On the NASDAQ, we're down by 4.3 on the Russell Lis.
那斯達克指數下跌4.3%，羅素指數下跌超過5%。
1:16:31
So, we're down by more than five.
因此，我們的跌幅超過了五個百分點。
1:16:32
No one is looking to catch a falling knife, and that seems to be what we're doing this uh this evening
沒人想試圖接住下落的刀，而這似乎正是我們今晚正在做的事，
1:16:36
with no blinking across the board.
市場全面毫無喘息地崩跌。
1:16:38
Remember that Scott Besson told NBC's Meet the Press, "I see no reason that we have to price in a recession." And said
請記住，Scott Besson 曾告訴 NBC 的《會見新聞界》：「我認為沒有理由必須將經濟衰退的風險計入股價。」
1:16:43
that the market carnage is a short-term reaction by organic animals.
他並表示，市場的屠殺是有機投資者（organic animals）的短期反應。
1:16:48
This isn't a blink necessarily by the administration.
這不一定是行政當局的退讓。
1:16:50
The White House isn't blinking.
白宮並未退讓。
1:16:52
Under surveillance this evening, the bulls are throwing in the towel.
在今晚的監控中，多頭已宣告放棄。
1:16:55
This is potentially recession if these tariffs remain in place.
如果這些關稅持續實施，這可能導致經濟衰退。
1:17:00
Even if tariffs weren't an issue right now, there were plenty of economists that
即使關稅目前不是問題，仍有許多經濟學家
1:17:02
were still concerned that the inflation genie hadn't been put back in the bottle.
擔心通膨這隻妖怪尚未被收回瓶子裡。
1:17:06
I have sensed this bearish sentiment on the rise.
我感覺到這種看空的情緒正在升溫。
1:17:09
The animal spirits that we all were kind of counting on to keep the stock market
我們原本指望的那股讓股市持續上漲、讓消費者繼續消費的動物精神
1:17:13
going and consumers going has kind of fizzled away.
現在似乎已經消退了。
1:17:17
We have been in the process of destroying the American brand.
我們一直在摧毀美國的品牌形象。
1:17:19
The rest of the world's watching mistake after mistake be made.
世界其他地區正看著一個接一個的錯誤發生。
1:17:23
So here's the latest this evening.
以下是今晚的最新情況。
1:17:26
Strategists racing to revise their outlooks as RBC's Lorie Calvacina says her bare case is
策略師們正忙著修訂他們的展望，正如加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）的洛里·卡瓦西納（Lorie Calvacina）所說，她的悲觀情況
1:17:29
now her base case.
現在已成為她的基本情況。
1:17:31
Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth writing, "We are likely to reach oversold flush levels that could
New Edge Wealth 的卡梅倫·道森（Cameron Dawson）寫道：「我們很可能會達到超賣的觸底水平，這可能
1:17:35
set up for a bounce, but we think trends have deteriorated significantly, suggesting that the bounce could be
為反彈創造條件，但我們認為趨勢已經顯著惡化，這表明反彈可能
1:17:41
shortlived." Cameron joins us now for more.
是短暫的。」卡梅倫現在加入我們的節目提供更多分析。
1:17:43
Cameron, good evening.
卡梅倫，晚上好。
1:17:45
You expecting a bounce now?
你預期現在會有反彈嗎？
1:17:45
Good evening.
晚上好。
1:17:46
Well, certainly not this afternoon or or tomorrow morning.
嗯，肯定不是今天下午或明天早上。
1:17:51
So, we have seen enough of a flush within markets that usual technicals would suggest that you
所以，我們已經看到市場出現了足夠的拋售，通常的技術指標會顯示你
1:17:55
could see a little bit of a relief rally, but we have to acknowledge that if you are completely imploding the last
可能會看到一點舒緩性的反彈，但我們必須承認，如果在這些關稅的實施過程中，你正在徹底摧毀過去
1:18:01
40 years of economic world order over the course of these tariffs that maybe some of the past rules don't apply.
40 年的經濟世界秩序，那麼過去的一些規則可能就不再適用。
1:18:09
But we have to stick to the numbers and not the emotion.
但我們必須堅持數字，而不是情緒。
1:18:10
And the numbers do suggest that you have seen some flush signals which probably get even more extreme
而數字確實表明，你已經看到了一些拋售訊號，而且這些訊號可能變得更加極端。
1:18:15
after Monday's trading.
在週一交易結束後。
1:18:18
At the same time over the weekend, a lot of calls back and forth from different executive
同樣在週末期間，不同高層之間有許多往返的電話溝通
1:18:21
questions about margin calls.
關於追繳保證金的問題。
1:18:24
We've been discussing that and whether there's anything in the dollar being sold, gold
我們一直在討論這點，以及美元、黃金、加密資產的拋售是否
1:18:27
being sold, crypto assets being sold that suggestive of forced selling.
暗示著強制性拋售。
1:18:33
Are you seeing any signs of that?
你看到任何跡象了嗎？
1:18:34
There certainly seems to be at least a little bit of an uptick in disorder because
市場混亂程度似乎確實有一點上升，因為
1:18:37
what you can see is when correlations rise between stocks on big down days.
你可以看到在股市大跌的日子裡，個股之間的相關性會上升。
1:18:41
You see things like the number of names hitting new 20-day lows hit over 76% on Friday.
例如，週五創下20天新低的個股數量超過76%。
1:18:48
You have the number of names above their two their 50-day moving average at just 12% put call ratio at
處於50日移動平均線以上的個股數量僅有12%，日內認沽認購比
1:18:53
1.3 intraday.
達到1.3。
1:18:55
That all suggests this idea of people are selling indiscriminately, which suggests that
這些都顯示出人們正在不加選擇地拋售，這意味著
1:19:00
idea of people are selling what they can in order to offset some of the big losses that they have in other parts of
人們正在變賣他們能賣的資產，以彌補他們在投資組合其他部分的
1:19:06
their portfolio.
巨大損失。
1:19:08
Let's say people model out what we heard from the tariff regime that was put out in the Rose Garden last
假設人們根據我們上週在玫瑰園聽到的關稅制度進行模型推演。
1:19:13
What are we pricing in?
我們目前的定價反映了什麼？
1:19:16
What's the ultimate endgame if that goes into effect?
如果該政策生效，最終的結局會是什麼？
1:19:18
Is it recession?
是經濟衰退嗎？
1:19:20
Is it stagflation?
是停滯性通膨嗎？
1:19:20
Does it matter?
這有關係嗎？
1:19:22
Have people thought about that?
大家有想過這點嗎？
1:19:24
We closed on Friday trading at 19 times Ford earnings on a $270 a share number that implies 11%
我們週五收盤時的本益比是19倍，股價為每股270美元，這意味著2025年將有11%的成長。
1:19:30
growth for 2025.
這在每股盈餘（EPS）數字上不算衰退，在估值上也不算衰退，
1:19:32
That's not a recession in the EPS number and that's not a recession in the valuation as well,
這就是為什麼我們認為，即使從技術面來看出現短期反彈，這種波動性仍將持續。
1:19:36
which is why we think that this volatility continues even if you see that short-term bounce from a technical
我們即將進入財報季。
1:19:42
perspective.
本週三我們將聽到達美航空（Delta Airlines）的消息。
1:19:43
We're going into earning season.
週五將有大型銀行公布財報。
1:19:44
We'll hear from Delta Airlines this coming Wednesday.
但當你在思考你對企業的期待時，在接下來幾週的財報季中，
1:19:48
You'll hear from the big banks reporting on Friday.
你希望從它們身上看到什麼？
1:19:50
But when you think about what you're looking for from corporations, what are you
你預期它們會說些什麼？
1:19:52
looking for in the weeks to come this earning season?
它們能說些什麼？
1:19:55
What are you expecting them to say?
嗯，我預期它們會告訴我們，對於資本支出（Capex）和招聘有什麼規劃，
1:19:57
What can they say?
因為它們確實知道關稅的狀況。
1:19:59
Well, I'm expecting them to tell us what they plan to do with capex and hiring because
它們不能坐在那裡跟分析師會面時說：「我們完全不知道。」它們必須有所行動。
1:20:04
they do know where the tariffs are.
它們確實知道規模大小。
1:20:09
They can't sit there and and meet with analysts and say, "We have no idea." They have to be doing
那是什麼？
1:20:09
They do know the size.
他們確實知道規模大小。
1:20:14
something.
具體是什麼？
1:20:16
What is it?
那是什麼？
1:20:17
that interplay between margins and consumer price tolerance.
利潤率與消費者價格承受能力之間的相互作用。
1:20:20
What is that interplay going to look like in the weeks to come when they have to set a price?
在未來幾週他們必須定價時，這種相互作用會是什麼樣貌？
1:20:25
Set a price to account for a new tariff, a much bigger tariff potentially as well in the coming
設定一個價格以反映新的關稅，未來幾天潛在的關稅可能也會大幅增加。
1:20:29
If companies are able to pass on price increases to customers, it's actually can be good for margins.
如果公司能夠將價格上漲轉嫁給消費者，這對利潤率其實是有利的。
1:20:37
That's what happened in 2020 and 2021.
2020 年和 2021 年就是這樣。
1:20:39
But we don't expect that to happen this time around because the purchasing power of
但我們預期這次不會發生，因為消費者的購買力，
1:20:41
consumers, consumers ability to absorb higher prices is much less than it was in a time like 2020 or 2021 when you
消費者吸收更高價格的能力，遠低於 2020 年或 2021 年那樣的時期，當時
1:20:49
were giving consumers checks to fund that spending.
你還在發支票給消費者來支撐那筆支出。
1:20:52
So we think a lot more of this pain from higher prices will have to be absorbed in corporate margins.
所以我們認為，價格上漲帶來的更多痛苦將不得不由企業利潤率吸收。
1:20:58
The end result of that is that companies will look for other places to reduce
這樣做的最終結果是，公司會尋找其他地方來
1:21:02
They'll start pulling back on capex potentially starts p pulling back on hiring turning to firing in order to
他們可能會開始減少資本支出，可能開始減少招聘，轉而裁員，以
1:21:08
defend margins and that's the risk to economic growth.
維護利潤率，這就是對經濟成長的風險。
1:21:12
Have you been encouraged by the fact that treasuries Cameron have been something of a haven?
國債（Treasuries）被視為某種避風港，這點是否讓你感到鼓舞？
1:21:16
It certainly is supportive of the idea that you're not going to see this really ne uh terrible scenario of the back end
這確實支持了這樣一種觀點，即你不會看到曲線後端因赤字恐懼和赤字融資恐懼而出現真正糟糕的
1:21:23
of the curve really backing up because of deficit fears and funding of deficit fears.
情況。
1:21:28
You think that's the worst case scenario in all of this is that if you see the short end of the curve come down
你認為在這一切中，最糟糕的情況是，如果你看到曲線前端下降
1:21:33
and the expectation that the Fed is going to cut rates but the backend stays sticky that means that you don't get the
且預期聯準會將降息，但後端保持穩定，這意味著你無法獲得
1:21:39
boost from things like mortgage refinancing and you have continued pressure on corporate funding costs.
來自抵押貸款再融資等事物的提振，且企業融資成本將持續面臨壓力。
1:21:46
So that's what we're watching in the interplay with the curve and that
這就是我們在觀察曲線互動時的重點，以及那種認為市場是否處於對公債需求減少的環境的暗示，至少在過去兩天，這並未發生。
1:21:48
suggestion that are we in an environment where people have less demand for treasuries because of the deficit at
但看看週五十年期公債的盤中反轉，這引起了我們的注意。
1:21:54
least over the last two days that hasn't happened.
嗯，Bob，談到這一點，當被問及他們有多關心市場時，這屆政府總是會回到十年期公債的話題。
1:21:57
But look at the intraday reversal on Friday of the 10ear that caught our eye.
他們從不談論標普500指數。
1:22:01
Well Bob to this point this administration when asked about how much they care about markets they've
這張看跌期權（支撐）始終在債券市場中。
1:22:06
always come back to the 10-year.
你認為在十年期公債殖利率持續走低的情況下，白宮會在什麼時候歡迎這種情況？
1:22:09
They never talk about the S&P 500.
所以 Cameron，週五的反轉又再次反轉了。
1:22:11
The put has always been in the bond market.
好的，我正在看十年期公債的反轉情況。
1:22:13
At what point do you think the White House welcomes this if tenyear yields keep
你知道，十年期公債期貨的殖利率下降了大約10個基點左右。
1:22:16
going lower?
嗯，我認為對十年期公債的關注非常聰明，因為他們知道那是美國平均抵押貸款利率的基準。
1:22:17
So Cameron, Friday's reversal has just reversed again.
所以試圖把它壓低。
1:22:23
Okay, I'm looking at 10 10year Treasury reversal.
這可能是他們希望將大量公債借款推向曲線更遠端（長天期），遠離原本所在的前端的地方。
1:22:25
You know, the 10-year Treasury futures um yields are down about 10 or so basis points.
嗯，所以他們需要做一些這樣的調整，然後他們也知道企業傾向於在整條曲線上進行大量融資。
1:22:31
Um I I think the focus on the 10-year is very clever because they know that's where the average
嗯，我認為關注 10 年期國債非常聰明，因為他們知道那是美國平均抵押貸款利率的基準。
1:22:36
American's mortgage is set off of.
美國的抵押貸款就是以此為基準。
1:22:40
So try to push that down.
所以試著把它壓低。
1:22:41
that's probably where they would like to drive a lot of the treasury borrowing further out the
這可能就是他們希望將大量國債借款進一步推向曲線遠端的地方。
1:22:45
curve and away from the front end where it was planted.
遠離前端，那裡原本是借款的集中點。
1:22:49
Um, so they they need to do some of that and then they also know that businesses tend to do a lot of
嗯，所以他們需要做一部分這樣的工作，而且他們也知道企業傾向於在整條曲線上進行大量融資。
1:22:55
funding out across the curve.
跨曲線融資。
1:22:59
So try to bring that down benefit businesses and households and of course themselves in
所以試著降低利率，對企業和家庭有利，當然對政府自身也有利。
1:23:02
government.
政府。
1:23:03
It's too cute.
這想法太天真了。
1:23:05
Execution risk is too high.
執行風險太高了。
1:23:05
Sure, yields might drop for all the wrong reasons.
當然，收益率可能會因為各種錯誤的原因而下降。
1:23:08
What do you think is going to happen to tax revenue if the odds are dropping because
你認為如果稅收會發生什麼變化，如果機率下降是因為我們都在重新評估經濟並再次定價衰退？
1:23:11
we're all repricing the economy and price again a recession?
也許我們能避開衰退。
1:23:16
Maybe we avoid it.
我希望我們能避開。
1:23:16
I hope we do.
你認為稅收會發生什麼變化？
1:23:17
What do you think happens to tax revenue?
我週末才在討論這個問題，你必須同時看資產負債表的兩邊。
1:23:19
I was just saying having this conversation over the weekend, you got to look at both sides
資產負債表的兩邊。
1:23:22
of the balance sheet.
稅收急劇下降的同時，好吧，借款成本卻低了很多。
1:23:24
Tax revenue falls off a cliff at the same time that okay, borrowing costs are a lot lower.
這真的能達到平衡國家財政健康的最終目標嗎？
1:23:28
Does that really get to the ultimate goal of balancing the fiscal the fiscal health
國家財政健康的最終目標嗎？
1:23:30
of this country?
我們在失業率只有4%的情況下，預算赤字一直維持在6%。
1:23:32
We've been running 6% budget deficits with unemployment down at four.
我們需要經濟增長。
1:23:32
You need the growth.
如果我們陷入衰退，大家認為預算赤字會發生什麼變化？
1:23:36
What does everyone think is going to happen to the budget deficit if we enter a
預算赤字會發生什麼變化？
1:23:39
recession?
我想這就是人們最終必須問的問題。
1:23:40
I guess that this is the question that people have to ultimately ask.
我想這就是人們最終必須問的問題。
1:23:43
Do you believe that this was deliberate act to try to bring 10ear yields down?
你認為這是刻意為之，試圖壓低十年期公債殖利率嗎？
1:23:49
I mean, do you believe that Bob Michael?
我是說，你相信 Bob Michael 嗎？
1:23:52
No, I I don't think you crash the entire US and global economy just because you want 10year yields a
不，我不認為你僅僅因為想要十年期殖利率低一點，就會讓整個美國和全球經濟崩盤。
1:23:58
little bit lower.
我是否認為行政當局說過：「這是我們的關稅政策。
1:24:00
Do I think that the administration has said, "Here's our tariff policy.
現在，國會，球在你們那邊了。
1:24:04
Now, Congress, balls in your court.
這是減稅與就業法案的延長案，加上我想附帶的所有內容。
1:24:07
Here's the tax cut and jobs act extension plus everything I want to hang off of it.
你們要通過還是不通過？」然後聯準會，嘿，你們可以降息。
1:24:12
You going to pass it or not?" And Fed, hey, you can cut rates.
你們以前也降過。
1:24:15
You've cut them before.
所以，很剛好地，球已經從行政當局傳給了聯準會和國會。
1:24:18
So, conveniently, the ball has been passed from the administration to the Fed and
他們會接下這個球嗎？
1:24:21
to Congress.
目前看來，聯準會顯然正在漏接這個球。
1:24:22
Will they take the pass or not?
我很高興你往這個方向思考，因為我認為這是個很好的觀點。
1:24:23
Right now, certainly, the Fed looks to be fumbling the pass.
這場對話的下一個焦點是稅收法案。
1:24:27
I'm pleased you went in that direction because I think it's a great point.
Cameron，對於很多在新年進場、看漲這屆行政當局、偏好風險、追求成長的人來說，更完整的政策平台不是貿易，而是稅收。
1:24:30
The next stop for this conversation is the tax bill.
你現在有什麼預期？
1:24:33
And Cameron, for a lot of people that came into the new year bullish, bullish this
嗯，共和黨內部有一大派系不希望用關稅來為其他地方的減稅買單，這意味著他們對於將關稅收入外推以用於未來的減稅感到不安。
1:24:35
administration, pro- risk, prog growth, it was the more complete policy platform, not trade, but taxes.
對這個新政府持樂觀態度、偏好風險、支持增長，這是一個更完整的政策平台，不是關於貿易，而是關於稅收。
1:24:43
What are you expecting now?
你現在有什麼預期？
1:24:44
Well, there's a big contingent within the Republican party that does not want to count tariffs in
嗯，共和黨內部有一大派系不希望用關稅來為其他地方的減稅買單。
1:24:49
order to give tax cuts in other places, meaning that they are not comfortable with extrapolating tariff revenue in
這意味著他們對於將關稅收入外推以用於平衡預算感到不安。
1:24:55
order to balance the budget.
用以平衡預算。
1:24:59
So, the big question is, will you really get the tax cuts to offset what is a tax hike with
所以，關鍵問題是，這些關稅帶來的稅收增加，是否真能透過減稅來抵銷？
1:25:03
these tariffs?
1443.
1:25:04
and we're not so certain, which just means that maybe you get the extension of the baseline, but we're not
我們對此並不確定，這意味著或許能延續原本的基準，但我們無法
1:25:09
positive that you're going to see this big offset with much lower corporate taxes or or lower taxes on consumers,
確定會看到企業稅大幅降低，或消費者稅負減輕，從而帶來大幅抵銷效果，
1:25:16
which just means that we get a lot of the pain from the tariffs, not necessarily the offset from lower taxes
這意味著我們將承受關稅帶來的大部分衝擊，未必能獲得其他地方
1:25:21
other places.
減稅帶來的抵銷效益。
1:25:22
Cameron, this was great.
Cameron，這次訪談很棒。
1:25:22
Almost said good morning to you when you walked in.
你走進來時，我差點跟你說早安。
1:25:24
It's an odd feeling, isn't it?
這感覺很奇妙，不是嗎？
1:25:25
Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth.
New Edge Wealth 的 Cameron Dawson。
1:25:27
The latest moves look like this.
最新走勢如下。
1:25:30
We're down 4% on the S&P.
標普500指數下跌4%。
1:25:31
The NASDAQ down by 4.75.
那斯達克指數下跌4.75%。
1:25:31
Check out these moves in crude down another 3%.
觀察原油市場走勢，又下跌了3%。
1:25:36
It's a break of 60 on WTI.
WTI原油跌破60美元。
1:25:37
59.993 on Brent crude we're at 6353.
Brent原油報59.993美元，我們目前在6353點。
1:25:41
Up next on the program, Nuran Rabini expecting more market pain before Trump starts to deescalate.
接下來的節目，Nuran Rabini 預期在川普開始緩和局勢前，市場將面臨更多痛苦。
1:25:49
He joins us next.
他稍後將加入我們。
1:25:50
That's his call.
這是他的看法。
1:25:53
[Music] The top names in business are on
[音樂] 商業領域的頂尖品牌都在
1:26:03
Bloomberg.
Bloomberg。
1:26:04
Is an IPO possible now for you for Ripple?
Ripple 現在有可能進行 IPO 嗎？
1:26:07
Well, it's certainly something that is possible.
嗯，這當然是有可能的。
1:26:10
The United States SEC under Gendler was so hostile to this industry.
在 Gendler 領導下的美國 SEC 對這個產業非常敵對。
1:26:13
I mean, ironically, they approved the S1 from Coinbase and then sued them for doing the things they
我是說，諷刺的是，他們批准了 Coinbase 的 S1 文件，然後卻因為他們做了他們
1:26:16
said they were doing.
聲稱要做的事而起訴他們。
1:26:19
So, this SEC frank fortunately is going to be, I think, very constructive and positive for this
所以，我認為現在這個 SEC 框架將對這個
1:26:22
industry.
產業非常具有建設性且正面。
1:26:23
That being said, it isn't a huge priority.
話雖如此，這並不是當前的首要任務。
1:26:25
You know, I think most companies are going public.
你知道，我認為大多數公司都在考慮上市。
1:26:28
Raising capital is something that is high on their on their radar.
籌集資金是他們雷達上顯示的重要目標。
1:26:31
You know, we have been in a very fortunate position to be able to grow the business organically.
你知道，我們一直處於非常幸運的位置，能夠有機地發展業務。
1:26:35
We're also frankly more proactive in looking at acquisitions.
坦白說，我們在考慮收購方面也更加積極。
1:26:40
Uh that you this is an industry that finally is going to be able to thrive in the United
嗯，這是一個終於將能在美國
1:26:42
States, the largest economy in the world.
這個全球最大經濟體蓬勃發展的產業。
1:26:45
And I think the industry is still underestimating the shift from the headwinds to the tailwinds.
而且我認為這個產業仍然低估了從逆風轉向順風的轉變。
1:26:51
That's going to make a bigger difference than people think.
這將帶來的影響比人們想像的要大得多。
1:26:52
And finally, the US market is really unlocked.
最後，美國市場真的已經解鎖了。
1:26:56
Nobody covers business like Bloomberg.
沒有人像 Bloomberg 那樣全方位報導商業動態。
1:26:59
Context changes everything.
背景決定一切。
1:27:02
The top names at the Fed are on Bloomberg.
聯準會的高層主管都在彭博社。
1:27:05
I do know that consumer sentiment has started to take a dip.
我確實知道消費者信心已經開始下滑。
1:27:09
The question that we face right now is, is consumer sentiment going to be a leading
我們現在面臨的問題是，消費者信心會不會像疫情前那樣成為領先指標，
1:27:11
indicator like it was pre- pandemic or is it going to be something that doesn't really translate into actual observed
還是它不會真正轉化為經濟中實際觀察到的行為，
1:27:17
behavior in the economy that as how it played out for most of the pandemic.
就像在疫情大部分時間裡的那樣。
1:27:21
Right now it's an open question and it's one of the things I'm going to be watching very closely in the months to
目前這還是個未解的問題，也是我在未來幾個月會密切關注的事情之一。
1:27:26
Nobody covers the Fed like Bloomberg.
沒有人比彭博社更懂聯準會。
1:27:29
[Music] It's the world's second largest economy with a growing influence in global
[音樂] 這是世界第二大經濟體，在全球事務中的影響力日益增長。
1:27:35
affairs.
1491.
1:27:36
Bloomberg the China show brings you the unmatched expertise you need to keep track of breaking news, in-depth
彭博《中國秀》為您帶來無可匹敵的專業知識，助您掌握突發新聞、深入的市場分析，
1:27:42
market analysis, and the most influential news makers in and around China.
以及中國內外最具影響力的新聞製造者。
1:27:46
We need to do more to engage the market more.
我們需要做更多來加強與市場的互動。
1:27:48
We're risk.
我們就是風險。
1:27:49
I think we caught a little sweet spot.
我認為我們抓住了一個絕佳的契機。
1:27:51
Massive savings right now.
目前有龐大的儲蓄。
1:27:53
It's already a different game.
這已經是一場不同的遊戲了。
1:27:54
Bloomberg the China show weekdays at 9:00 p.m.
彭博《中國秀》週一至週五晚上 9:00（美東時間），
1:27:57
Eastern time right here on Bloomberg.
在彭博頻道播出。
1:27:59
Context changes everything.
背景決定一切。
1:28:01
In case you missed it on the opening trade, is Trump, as he says he is, ready to do transformational trade deals as
如果你錯過了開盤交易的討論，那麼川普是否如他所言，願意達成轉型性的貿易協議，
1:28:09
long as he gets his interest taken care of?
只要他的利益得到保障？
1:28:11
Because if he is, that gives a huge opportunity for the UK to really move the dial on its growth with the US.
如果是這樣，這將為英國提供一個巨大的機會，藉由與美國的關係真正推動其經濟增長。
1:28:21
So I can't I can't imagine that you would shy away from that prospect if it's genuine.
所以我無法想像，如果這是真誠的，你會拒絕這個前景。
1:28:24
What remains to be seen is it genuine on the part of the US and we have to test that.
仍有待觀察的是，美方是否真誠，我們必須加以測試。
1:28:28
Don't miss the opening trade live every weekday.
別錯過每個工作日的開盤交易直播。
1:28:32
In case you missed it on Bloomberg Surveillance, I worry less about AI taking my job.
如果你錯過了 Bloomberg Surveillance 的討論，我比較不擔心 AI 會搶走我的工作。
1:28:37
I worry more about someone who uses AI really well taking my job.
我更擔心的是，那些善用 AI 的人會搶走我的工作。
1:28:40
AI is still not going to have the human instinct and the judgment that you're going to need to have.
AI 仍然不會具備你所需的人類直覺和判斷力。
1:28:46
You're still going to need to do oversight.
你仍然需要進行監督。
1:28:46
There's a human in the loop, but now that developer is going to have a companion.
流程中仍需人類介入，但現在開發者將會有一個助手。
1:28:50
And so what AI will allow us to do is not just go do things that humans don't do as well, but actually do
因此，AI 將讓我們不僅能去做人類不擅長的事，還能實際完成
1:28:55
things that humans don't have the time to get done.
人類沒時間做完的事。
1:28:58
Don't miss Bloomberg surveillance live every weekday.
別錯過每個工作日的 Bloomberg Surveillance 直播。
1:29:02
US tech is influencing global markets.
美國科技正在影響全球市場。
1:29:05
Technology is driving business across Europe.
科技正在推動整個歐洲的商業發展。
1:29:09
Companies in Asia are betting on tech.
亞洲公司正押注科技。
1:29:16
Bringing you up totheminute financial news whenever and wherever it happens.
隨時隨地為您帶來最新的金融新聞。
1:29:21
I'm Michael McKe at the Federal Reserve and this is
我是美聯儲的 Michael McKe，這是...
1:29:24
[Music] Bloomberg.
[音樂] Bloomberg。
1:29:38
Thursday, Friday, two-day loss, 10.5% on the S&P.
週四、週五，兩日跌幅，S&P 10.5%。
1:29:42
Here's day three.
現在是第三天。
1:29:42
Equity futures down across the board.
股價指數期貨全面下跌。
1:29:44
We're negative by 3.8% on the S&P 500.
S&P 500 下跌 3.8%。
1:29:46
Down almost five on the NASDAQ 100.
NASDAQ 100 下跌近 5%。
1:29:49
At the wall with more, here's Danny Burger.
Danny Burger 將帶來更多分析。
1:29:51
Hey, Danny.
嗨，Danny。
1:29:52
Hey, John.
嗨，John。
1:29:53
Maybe the good news is that the overnight limit for circ circuit breakers is 7%.
或許好消息是，隔夜熔斷機制的上限是 7%。
1:29:58
We're not too far from that now, but at least there is a mechanism to step in if it
我們現在離那個點不遠，但至少如果情況惡化，還有機制可以介入。
1:30:01
gets worse.
但這是壞消息。
1:30:02
But this is the bad news.
如你所言，這讓原本就很糟糕的週四和週五雪上加霜。
1:30:04
As you point out, it adds to an already really ugly Thursday and Friday.
看看 Apple 這兩天的表現。
1:30:08
Just take a look at what Apple did over those two days.
下跌約 16%。
1:30:11
down some 16%.
僅這檔股票就佔了那段時間 S&P 500 損失的十分之一。
1:30:12
This in itself contributed to a tenth of the losses in the S&P 500 over that time period.
Dan Ives of Web Bush 表示，在科技股中，Apple 是受美國關稅影響最大的單一股票。
1:30:19
Dan Eyes of Web Bush saying that Apple is the single most exposed stock to US tariffs when it
他下調了評級，並指出 90% 的 iPhone 是在中國製造和組裝的。
1:30:24
comes to tech.
在科技領域。
1:30:25
He downgraded it, putting out that 90% of iPhones are made and assembled in China.
他下調了評級，並指出 90% 的 iPhone 是在中國製造和組裝的。
1:30:30
Now, it's not just tech, it's not just AI.
現在，這不僅僅是科技，也不僅僅是AI。
1:30:33
That was the beginning of some of the correction, right?
這是一些修正的開始，對吧？
1:30:35
The beginning of some of the pain was that valuation comedown.
一些痛苦的開始是估值的回落。
1:30:39
Banks started to join in to that at the end of Thursday and Friday.
銀行在週四和週五尾聲開始加入這波跌勢。
1:30:42
You can look, this is just the action on Friday, but overall banks in the past two days fell
你可以看到，這只是週五的走勢，但整體而言，銀行股在過去兩天下跌了
1:30:47
It is fears about the economy and it's also an IPO and an M&A market that became frozen.
這源於對經濟的擔憂，以及IPO和併購市場的凍結。
1:30:54
Now, finally, the retailers had a really interesting two sessions because as you'd expect on
現在，最後，零售業者經歷了非常有趣的兩個交易時段，因為正如你所預期的，在
1:30:58
Thursday, they get hit and they get hit hard.
週四，他們受到重創。
1:31:01
Nike really encapsulates this.
Nike（耐吉）很好地體現了這一點。
1:31:05
At the end of the trading day, it was at a 17, the lowest since 2017.
在交易日結束時，股價為17年來的最低點。
1:31:09
But it starts to rebound as Trump talks about this idea that he's had a call with the
但當川普談及他已與越南領導人通話，並打算將貿易和關稅降至零時，股價開始反彈。
1:31:12
Vietnamese leader and they're going to take trade and they're going to take tariffs down to zero.
但你必須問的問題是，這件事能否回升反彈，其目標是什麼？
1:31:17
But the question you have to ask as to whether this thing can come back and rebound is what is the
是為了降低與美國夥伴的貿易壁壘，還是為了讓貿易逆差歸零？
1:31:22
goal?
這兩者對像Nike這樣的公司將會產生截然不同的結果。
1:31:22
Is it to lower trade barriers with American partners or is it to get the trade deficit to zero?
John Danny，謝謝你。
1:31:28
And those two will have very different outcomes for companies like Nike.
做得好。
1:31:31
John Danny, thank you.
據稱對市場造成的巨大損害將持續。
1:31:32
Great work.
做得好。
1:31:32
Tremendous damage done to the market said to continue.
據稱對市場造成的巨大損害將持續。
1:31:35
If you're looking at equity futures right now this evening, we're down by 4%.
如果您現在正在看今晚的股票期貨，我們下跌了 4%。
1:31:39
The move low we've seen in crude has been absolutely huge and we're breaking 60 on
我們今晚看到的原油下跌幅度非常巨大，WTI 原油價格已經跌破 60 美元。
1:31:42
WTI this evening.
Lisa，如果您回想週四，週四是繼 4 月 2 日宣布後的震驚時刻。
1:31:44
Lisa, if you think about Thursday, Thursday was the shock following the April 2nd announcement.
純粹是震驚，純粹是政策的波動性，純粹是其廣泛程度與幅度之大令人意外。
1:31:49
Just the shock, just the policy volatility, just the unexpected nature of how broad-based and large it was.
週五我們開始真正思考，天哪，我們該如何消化對系統的衝擊，而不僅僅是對經濟週期的衝擊。
1:31:55
Friday we started to really think about my goodness how do we internalize the shock to the system not just the shock
您肯定會認為，今天和今晚的情況正是如此，再加上整個週末我們沒有看到任何跡象顯示政府會讓步。
1:32:01
to the cycle.
也沒有看到鮑爾主席在週末前有任何介入的跡象。
1:32:02
You certainly think that today and this evening is that plus the fact that over this weekend we have seen
今天早上那些上晨間節目的官員們也沒有給出任何答案。
1:32:07
no sign whatsoever that the administration would blink and no sign from chairman Pal going into the weekend
他們沒有回答關稅是最終目標還是用來降低匯率的工具。
1:32:13
that he's going to step in either and no answer from any of those officials who went all on the morning shows the
除了關稅將持續存在且方向明確之外，其中一場訪問從未回答這個問題。
1:32:19
weekend shows this morning.
以下是您本週的日程安排。
1:32:22
No answer to whether tariffs were an end goal or a tool to bring down the rate.
在貿易方面，10% 的基準關稅已經生效。
1:32:26
That was never answered in one of those interviews except that tariffs will be
情況如下。
1:32:28
here to stay and the direction of travel is clear.
對等關稅定於 4 月 9 日生效。
1:32:31
So here's your calendar for the week ahead.
中國定於 4 月 10 日進行報復。
1:32:34
On the trade side, 10% baseline tariffs are already active.
同一天我們將得到美國通膨數據。
1:32:34
It shapes up as follows.
情況如下。
1:32:38
Reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in on April 9th.
對等關稅將於 4 月 9 日生效。
1:32:43
China set to retaliate on April 10th.
中國計劃於 4 月 10 日報復。
1:32:45
The very same day we get US inflation data.
同一天我們將得到美國通膨數據。
1:32:48
Mike Kit McKe joins us now for more.
Mike Kit McKe 現在加入我們，提供更多分析。
1:32:50
Good evening, Mike.
晚上好，Mike。
1:32:50
That's quite a week still to come.
接下來這週還是相當關鍵。
1:32:52
But the economic data is going to stay out of it for a while.
但經濟數據將會暫時缺席一段時間。
1:32:56
We don't get CPI until Thursday.
我們要到週四才會看到消費者物價指數（CPI）。
1:32:58
We get PPI on Friday.
週五則會發布生產者物價指數（PPI）。
1:32:58
And both of those data points are going to reflect March data rather than anything that's happened since the
這兩個數據點都將反映三月份的數據，而不是關稅生效後
1:33:04
tariffs were put on.
發生的任何變化。
1:33:07
We could see a little bit of uh evidence that it's going to happen.
我們可能會看到一些它即將發生的蛛絲馬跡。
1:33:11
You look at PPI and the year-over-year rates are expected to go higher.
看看 PPI，年增率預期將會走高。
1:33:15
uh CPI expected for the most part to be in line and a little bit lower.
至於 CPI，大部分預期將符合預期，並略微走低。
1:33:19
But uh what is it that we're looking for?
但我們究竟在尋找什麼？
1:33:22
Well, there were a lot of things in the uh in the imports that we got in January and February that suggest
嗯，從一、二月份的進口數據中，我們發現許多跡象顯示
1:33:29
maybe prices start to rise for a few things.
也許某些商品的價格開始上漲。
1:33:32
And where are we going to see all this first?
我們首先會在哪裡看到這些影響？
1:33:35
Uh fruits and vegetables, coffee, things that we don't make here in the United States, they
嗎，水果和蔬菜、咖啡，這些我們不在美國本土生產的東西，
1:33:39
could have gone up.
它們的價格可能已經上漲。
1:33:42
Toys were a big import.
玩具是一大進口項目。
1:33:43
uh wine and beer now that uh aluminum cans are sanctioned and then in the PPI it was finished metals and
還有葡萄酒和啤酒，現在鋁罐受到制裁，而在 PPI 方面，則是成品金屬和...
1:33:49
industrial supplies, electronics, those uh were brought into the country in big numbers in the last two months.
工業用品、電子產品，這些東西在過去兩個月大量進口到這個國家。
1:33:57
So it is possible rates went up on those.
所以這些商品的匯率有可能上漲。
1:33:59
So we'll see if there's any kind of a hint at what's coming but for the most part
因此我們將觀察是否有任何關於未來走勢的線索，但大體而言
1:34:02
all of the things that Wall Street fears about inflation are still down the road.
華爾街對通膨的所有擔憂都還在後頭。
1:34:06
Mck thank you sir.
Mck，謝謝您，先生。
1:34:08
Let's extend the conversation with Nuriel Rabini, the CEO of Rabini Macro Associates, weighing in
我們繼續與 Rabini Macro Associates 執行長 Nuriel Rabini 對話，他對
1:34:12
on the president's next move, saying quote, "If he's rational, he's going to deescalate." Nura joins us now for more.
總統的下一步行動表示意見，引述他的話：「如果他是理性的，他就會讓局勢降溫。」現在請 Nura 為我們做更多說明。
1:34:19
Nura, thanks for staying up late for us into the evening, sir.
Nura，謝謝您為了我們熬夜到現在，先生。
1:34:22
It's great to catch up with you.
很高興能與您交流。
1:34:24
You're describing this as a three-way game of chicken.
您將此形容為一場三方的懦夫博弈（game of chicken）。
1:34:25
Just frame that for all of us.
請為我們大家解釋一下這個情況。
1:34:28
Well, it's a game of chicken between Trump on one side, Powell at the Fed on the other, and Shiinpin on who's going
嗯，這是一場懦夫博弈，一方是川普，另一方是聯準會的鮑爾，還有習近平，大家都在看誰會先眨眼。
1:34:37
to be blinking first.
誰會先眨眼。
1:34:40
You know, Trump is trying to nudge Powell to blink and his monetary policy as a way to push markets
您知道，川普試圖促使鮑爾眨眼，並透過他的貨幣政策來推升市場。
1:34:47
But Powell knows that given what happened on April 2nd, if he blinks, there'll be a deankering of inflation
但鮑爾知道，鑑於 4 月 2 日發生的事情，如果他眨眼，通膨預期將會鬆動，
1:34:54
expectation and those stars going to lead to higher inflation.
這些因素將導致更高的通膨。
1:34:58
So he's not going to blink.
所以他不會眨眼。
1:35:00
Of course, there is a Powell put, there is a Trump put, but Powell I don't think he cares as much about the stock
當然，存在鮑爾看跌期權（Powell put），也存在川普看跌期權（Trump put），但我認為鮑爾沒那麼在乎股市。
1:35:09
He cares about high yields because if high yield spreads were to widen a lot, that's a true sign we're
他之所以在意高殖利率，是因為一旦高收益債券利差大幅擴大，那就是我們即將陷入經濟衰退的真正訊號。
1:35:15
going to go into a recession.
1622.
1:35:18
This past week, high yield spreads have gone up only 100 basis points.
過去這一週，高收益債券利差僅上升了 100 個基點。
1:35:23
That's not yet distressed point of view.
這還未達到陷入困境的程度。
1:35:26
The point about the uh Trump put that he doesn't care anymore about the stock market and
關於所謂的「川普賣權」（Trump put），重點在於他不再關注股市，
1:35:29
he believes that actually long rates have gone lower the dollar is even a bit lower.
且他認為長期利率已經下降，美元甚至也稍微走低。
1:35:35
Maybe that's a easing of financial condition.
這或許意味著金融條件正在放寬。
1:35:38
So he doesn't want to blink.
因此他不打算讓步。
1:35:39
And when it comes to shiin pin, there's the beginning of this game of chicken between Trump and Shiinpin.
而談到習近平，川普與習近平之間的膽小鬼博弈（game of chicken）已初見端倪。
1:35:45
We started with attacking them.
我們先是發動攻擊。
1:35:48
We may retaliate.
我們可能會報復。
1:35:48
They retaliated.
他們已經報復了。
1:35:50
They're going to retaliate.
他們將會繼續報復。
1:35:51
That's going to lead to a full-scale trade war.
這將導致全面的貿易戰。
1:35:55
I think the shining king has as has more leverage.
我認為習近平擁有更多的槓桿（籌碼）。
1:35:56
He doesn't face as an election next year.
他明年不需面對選舉。
1:35:59
He can use monetary policy, fiscal policy, and currency policy and structural policy to strengthen domestic
他可以運用貨幣政策、財政政策、匯率政策以及結構性政策來提振國內需求。
1:36:06
demands.
1638.
1:36:07
And he's not going to give a she put a signal.
他不會發出任何信號，
1:36:11
is going to start to negotiate until Trump is really serious about deescalating.
也不會開始談判，除非川普真的有意讓局勢降溫。
1:36:16
But looks like Trump doesn't want to deescalate with China because he wants to corner China and to
但看來川普不想與中國緩和緊張關係，因為他想逼中國走投無路，並
1:36:21
lead to a radical reduction of the trade imbalance between US and China.
導致美中之間的貿易失衡大幅縮減。
1:36:27
Now in this game of chicken I think that we end up actually that the rational thing to
現在在這場膽小鬼博弈中，我認為最終對川普來說最理性的做法
1:36:30
do for Trump will be to deescalate because if he doesn't there is for sure a recession.
就是緩和局勢，因為如果他不這麼做，肯定會發生經濟衰退。
1:36:37
if there is a recession, he loses the midterms and then he's politically gone.
如果發生經濟衰退，他會失去期中選舉，然後他的政治生涯就完蛋了。
1:36:42
But I think that he might not blink because one, he may think that it's not going to be a
但我認為他可能不會退讓，因為第一，他可能認為不會發生
1:36:46
recession or he might think that if there is a recession, then he can blame it on China and the people in Rasbel are
經濟衰退，或者他可能認為如果發生經濟衰退，他可以將責任推給中國，而拉斯維加斯的人民
1:36:53
going to support him in his goal of restoring manufacturing.
會支持他恢復製造業的目標。
1:36:58
I think it's delusional but the probability of really collision course is really rising and
我認為這是妄想，但真正發生衝突的機率正在上升，
1:37:02
the probability of a US and global recession is rising and becomes a baseline unless Trump blinks and
美國和全球經濟衰退的機率也在上升，並成為基準情況，除非川普退讓並
1:37:10
deescalates.
緩和局勢。
1:37:11
We don't know when that could happen.
我們不知道這何時會發生。
1:37:13
Noriel, I just want to jump in here.
Noriel，我想插句話。
1:37:15
There's a real question over the weekend.
週末出現了一個真正的問題。
1:37:18
We heard from a number of different cabinet members of President Trump.
我們聽到了川普總統內閣多位成員的說法。
1:37:22
After hearing all of what they said, are you more or less optimistic that there will be some sort
聽完他們所有人說的話後，你對未來幾週內
1:37:27
of start of negotiations in the next few weeks?
會開始某種談判是更樂觀還是更悲觀？
1:37:32
I think there will be negotiations with trading partners that do not matter.
我認為會與無關緊要的貿易夥伴進行談判。
1:37:40
You can do a deal with Vietnam.
你可以和越南達成協議。
1:37:42
You can do a deal with Milan, Argentina, with Israel.
你可以和米蘭、阿根廷、以色列達成協議。
1:37:44
You may even try to negotiate something with the Europeans, but that's going to be tough because they may start to
你甚至可以嘗試與歐洲人協商某些事情，但這將會很困難，因為他們可能會開始
1:37:50
retaliate.
反擊。
1:37:52
The big thing that can help the market is if there is a call between Shiinpin and Trump and they say we're
能夠幫助市場的一大契機是，如果習近平與川普進行通話，並表示我們
1:37:59
going to postpone these tariffs on both sides by 90 days and let's try to have a grand bargain.
將雙方關稅推遲 90 天，並嘗試達成一項重大協議。
1:38:06
I don't think there is any evidence that that call is going to occur and that negotiation is going to
我認為沒有任何證據顯示這通電話會發生，而且談判會
1:38:13
If anything, I think there is a risk of escalation on both sides because both of them essentially feel that the
如果有的話，我認為雙方都有升級的風險，因為他們雙方本質上都覺得
1:38:20
other side is having some malicious intents and therefore I worry that collision course is going to continue
對方帶有某種惡意，因此我擔心衝突將會持續，
1:38:26
the market going to keep on going lower and lower.
市場將持續走低。
1:38:29
So that's the key thing is that negotiation with China the rest is not really it's fair change.
所以關鍵在於與中國的談判，其他部分並非真正的公平交易。
1:38:36
Noriel, you're usually pretty good during these crises for identifying where there are
Noriel，你在這些危機期間通常表現出色，能找出系統中
1:38:40
fractures in the system that could break.
可能會崩潰的裂痕。
1:38:43
What looks to you like it could break if things don't deescalate?
在你看來，如果局勢沒有緩和，哪些地方可能會崩潰？
1:38:48
Well, first of all, you have the direct effects of very high tariffs.
嗯，首先，高關稅會帶來直接影響。
1:38:54
If you take any economic model, those level of tariffs of April 2nd at full scale lead
如果你採用任何經濟模型，4 月 2 日那種規模的關稅若全面實施，將會
1:38:59
to a US recession and to a global recession through a variety of trade links.
導致美國經濟衰退，並透過各種貿易聯繫引發全球衰退。
1:39:04
But then you have a significant impact on consumer confidence.
但接著你會看到對消費者信心的重大影響。
1:39:10
You have a significant impact on business confidence.
你會看到對商業信心的重大影響。
1:39:13
You have some wealth effect coming from the stock market.
股市會產生一些財富效應。
1:39:18
Bond yields have gone down.
債券收益率已經下降。
1:39:20
But during the past week, high yield spreads have gone up by 100 basis points.
但在過去一週，高收益債券利差已經上升了100個基點。
1:39:25
So any fall in bond yields has been undone by the rise in those spreads and they're beginning
因此，債券收益率的任何下跌都已被這些利差的上升所抵消，而且它們正開始
1:39:29
to creep higher.
逐漸攀升。
1:39:31
And in the past, the Fed like in 201819 blinked when there was a real
過去，聯準會像是在2018年和2019年，當高收益債券利差出現真正的
1:39:36
massive spike in high yield spreads.
大幅飆升時，就曾退讓過。
1:39:41
And if things continue this direction, high yield spreads are going to go even
如果情況繼續朝這個方向發展，高收益債券利差將會變得
1:39:44
And that's a breaking point because what matters is not as much in the short run the stock market but
這是一個臨界點，因為在短期內，重要的與其說是股市，不如說是
1:39:51
credit spreads because those affect the cost of capital for the economy.
信用利差，因為它們影響了經濟的資本成本。
1:39:57
So they all getting excited about the fact that bond yields are lower but high spreads
所以他們都因為債券收益率下降而感到興奮，但高利差
1:40:01
are much higher.
卻高得多。
1:40:02
They're going to go much higher and that can among other things kill the economy.
它們將會變得更高，這除了其他影響外，還可能扼殺經濟。
1:40:07
Norio let's just sit on this theme because I think it's a really really important one.
Norio，我們就這個主題深入探討一下，因為我認為這真的非常非常重要。
1:40:12
We haven't had a large default cycle for quite a while.
我們已經有一段時間沒有經歷過大規模的違約週期了。
1:40:14
Through the pandemic pandemic, we avoided that because we had huge fiscal transfers.
在疫情期間，我們因為有龐大的財政移轉而避免了這一點。
1:40:19
Where do you think the leverage is now when you think about where there might be pockets of
當你思考槓桿可能藏在哪些地方時，你認為目前的槓桿狀況如何？
1:40:22
leverage?
有哪些可能存在槓桿的領域？
1:40:23
It's a question we all have always have to ask going into a downturn and sudden stops like the one we might
這是我們在進入像我們可能在國際貿易中看到的那種衰退和突然停滯時，必須要問的問題。
1:40:28
see in international trade.
1699.
1:40:31
Where do you think the leverage is at the moment?
你認為目前的槓桿狀況如何？
1:40:32
Well, the leverage is especially in the weaker part of the corporate sector.
嗯，杠杆主要集中在企業部門的較弱部分。
1:40:38
That is those firms that are essentially high yield especially the worst part of the high yield if you go at the sea
那些本質上屬於高收益的公司，特別是高收益債券中品質最差的部分，如果你觀察海洋層面（市場底層），
1:40:47
level or even among a trillion dollar of fallen angels have gone from investment grade to below investment grade that is
甚至在一兆美元的「墮落天使」（從投資級降至非投資級）之中，
1:40:55
the leverage and that leverage been financed a lot by the shadow banking system not the traditional banks so we
這些杠杆很多是由影子銀行體系而非傳統銀行提供融資，所以我們
1:41:03
didn't see it in the balance sheets of the banks so far Credit spreads have been very very low.
迄今在銀行的資產負債表上並未看到。信用利差一直非常非常低。
1:41:11
Not just for high grade but also for high yield because the economy was growing.
不僅是投資級債券，高收益債券也是如此，因為當時經濟正在增長。
1:41:16
The balance sheets of these corporates were poor.
這些企業的資產負債表雖然糟糕。
1:41:18
But if the economy is growing and you have revenues and you have some earnings growth, you can manage.
但如果經濟在增長，你有營收且有一些盈利增長，你就能維持下去。
1:41:24
You're not going to have a default.
你不會發生違約。
1:41:26
But now in addition to a balance sheet problem, you also have a P&L problem that if there is
但現在除了資產負債表的問題，你還面臨損益表（P&L）的問題，因為如果
1:41:31
going to be a recession, of course, the revenues and the profits of these firms that are already weak are going to hit.
經濟陷入衰退，這些本就疲弱公司的營收和利潤肯定會受到衝擊。
1:41:38
And that's where the credit spreads can widen.
這就是信用利差可能擴大的地方。
1:41:41
But when they widen, they often widen excessively, not only for high yield, but also for high grade.
但當它們擴大時，往往會過度擴大，不僅是高收益債券，投資級債券也是如此。
1:41:49
And in a recession, even the high grades are going to be to some extent a greater
在經濟衰退中，即使是投資級債券，在某种程度上風險也會增加。
1:41:53
So really credit markets are key at this point because we have a huge amount of leverage in the corporate
因此，此時信用市場至關重要，因為我們企業部門的杠杆極高，
1:41:59
sector with balance sheets that were excessive leverage but P&Ls were doing well.
資產負債表杠杆過度，但損益表表現良好。
1:42:04
When you have a shock to P&L you have a bad balance sheet then you have a credit crisis and the recession becomes
當損益表遭受衝擊，加上糟糕的資產負債表，就會引發信用危機，使得衰退變得
1:42:10
very severe could be as severe as 2008.
非常嚴重，可能像 2008 年那樣嚴重。
1:42:14
Norio, does the same logic apply when you say things like that, particularly going back to a year like that one, does
Norio，當你說到這些時，同樣的邏輯是否適用？特別是回到像那一年（2008年）的情況，是否
1:42:20
the same logic apply to develop market sovereign balance sheets?
這套邏輯是否適用於新興市場的主權資產負債表？
1:42:26
Well, it it it depends.
嗯，這要看情況。
1:42:30
Uh in the case of the United States, for now, bond yields have gone lower in spite of
就美國目前的情況而言，儘管關稅確實會推升通膨，
1:42:37
actually this tariff being inflationary.
公債殖利率卻反而走低。
1:42:40
One, because there is a risk of a recession.
第一，是因為存在經濟衰退的風險。
1:42:44
Two, because if there is a recession, the Fed may cut rates.
第二，是因為若經濟衰退，聯準會可能會降息。
1:42:51
And three, the Fed told us given what they've decided on April 2, we may not
第三，是因為聯準會已告訴我們，基於他們在4月2日的決策，他們可能不會
1:42:54
blink and therefore there is not a deanchoring of inflation expectation.
輕易讓步，因此通膨預期不會脫錨。
1:43:00
However, if Trump and Powell go on a collision course, each one of them waiting out for their own strike price
然而，如果川普和鮑爾針鋒相對，雙方各自等待對手的履約價
1:43:09
on their put to be exercised, then could be tensions and those tension might lead either to the Fed to blink.
觸發其自身的避險措施（Put），那麼局勢可能會趨於緊張，而這些緊張情勢可能導致聯準會讓步。
1:43:19
But if they blink in a time where inflation is going to rise because of the tariff, inflation
但如果他們在通膨因關稅而上升的時間點讓步，通膨
1:43:22
expectation get theored and bond yields go higher or hopefully is trumped is blinking and you have deescalation.
預期將會脫錨，公債殖利率會走高；或者，最好是川普讓步，讓局勢得以降溫。
1:43:32
Noral it's wonderful to get your opinion on things sir.
諾拉，能聽聽您對這些事的看法真是太好了。
1:43:35
I know you're traveling at the moment so I appreciate you staying up late to share them with us.
我知道您目前正在旅途中，非常感謝您熬夜與我們分享。
1:43:38
Thank you sir.
謝謝您。
1:43:39
Nuriel Rabini of Rabini Macro Associates sharing his thoughts on the situation.
Rabini Macro Associates 的 Nuriel Rabini 分享了他對當前局勢的看法。
1:43:44
Lisa in very simple terms develop market debt.
Lisa，用最簡單的術語來說，已開發市場的債券。
1:43:47
The rules go like this.
規則大致是這樣。
1:43:47
When things get bad, people buy it.
當情況變糟時，人們會買進它。
1:43:49
EM debt, the rules are something like this.
新興市場債券，規則則是像這樣。
1:43:52
When things get bad, people sell it.
當情況變糟時，人們會拋售它。
1:43:53
Do you think there could be a situation here given how the transfer of leverage that we saw through the
考慮到我們在疫情期間看到的槓桿轉移至主權資產負債表，你是否認為有可能出現一種情況，
1:43:58
pandemic went towards the sovereign balance sheet where maybe DM developed market sovereign debt starts to behave
使得已開發市場（DM）的主權債務在某些地區的衰退中開始表現得
1:44:04
differently in a downturn in certain places?
不一樣？
1:44:07
If that's the case, it hasn't happened yet.
如果是這樣，目前尚未發生。
1:44:09
And that's the reason why some people are getting comfort from that rally in the Treasury market.
這也是為什麼有些人從美國公債市場的反彈中獲得安慰。
1:44:14
That is where the leverage is at.
槓桿就在那裡。
1:44:15
But the question that you asked, the question that Bob asked to me was really the
但你提出的問題，Bob 問我的問題，才是真正的
1:44:18
crucial question.
關鍵問題。
1:44:21
Where are the fragile nodes in this system that could break?
這個系統中可能崩潰的脆弱節點在哪裡？
1:44:24
Some people are talking about developed markets, uh, sovereign debt, other people talking about private credit
有些人談論已開發市場的主權債務，其他人則談論私人信貸
1:44:29
markets, the outgrowth of markets that haven't really been tested.
市場，這是一個尚未經過真正考驗的市場的產物。
1:44:34
Where do you I'll turn that question back to you.
你怎麼看？我把這個問題拋回給你。
1:44:35
Where do you see the nodes of fragility should this continue?
如果這種情況持續下去，你認為脆弱點在哪裡？
1:44:40
Well, I I think Nuriel and I saw it in the same place, which is the cost of funding to corporate America.
嗯，我認為 Nuriel 和我的看法一致，那就是美國企業的融資成本。
1:44:49
If that's going up a lot at a time when topline will likely come off and input costs go
如果在營收可能下滑、投入成本上升的時候，融資成本大幅上升，
1:44:54
up, that's a very challenging place for corporate America to be.
這對美國企業來說是非常嚴峻的處境。
1:44:59
I'm not particularly concerned about the emerging markets.
我並不特別擔心新興市場。
1:45:02
We have to remember that these are different emerging markets than during the Brady era when
我們必須記住，這些是與布雷迪債券（Brady bonds）時期不同的新興市場，
1:45:08
we introduced Brady bonds.
當時我們引進了布雷迪債券。
1:45:11
Back then, emerging economies largely finance themselves through hard currency.
當時，新興經濟體主要透過硬通貨來融資。
1:45:17
Since then, over the last 30 odd years, they've built very impressive domestic
從那時起，在過去30多年裡，他們建立了非常令人印象深刻的國內殖利率曲線。
1:45:20
yield curves.
他們有當地的養老基金和保險公司支持。
1:45:22
They're supported by local pension funds and insurance companies.
這些債券市場表現良好。
1:45:25
Those bond markets are performing well.
新興市場可以度過難關。
1:45:28
Emerging markets can survive this.
如果美國築起貿易壁壘，而我們看到中國產能過剩導致世界其他地區出現通貨緊縮衝擊，這將給他們空間去降低利率，
1:45:31
If the US is going to put up the walls and we see a disinflationary shock for the
這些都是對利率極為敏感的經濟體。
1:45:33
rest of the world off the back of Chinese over capacity that gives them the space to reduce interest rates,
你可能會認為，麗莎，在未來幾個月，這在某些方面或許對他們有所幫助，這也是為什麼
1:45:37
tremendously rate sensitive economies.
當你查看不同的報告時，人們會將拉丁美洲國家視為潛在的贏家，即使
1:45:39
You'd think that maybe that might help them, Lisa, in the months to come in certain respects, which is a reason why
它們是新興市場、發展中市場，而且通常表現較差。
1:45:44
when you take a look at different notes, people are looking at say Latin American countries as possible winners even
但正如你所說，承受最大衝擊的可能不是美國公債。
1:45:51
though they are emerging markets, developing markets, and have typically done more poorly.
但如果是美國企業，如果美國的應對機制不像發展中世界那樣，
1:45:56
But to your point, it might not be treasuries that bear the brunt of it.
那些發展中國家有能力降息，且已整頓好財政狀況。
1:45:59
But maybe US corporations if the response mechanisms are not the same in the US that they are say in the
我認為疫情讓我們所有人都謙卑了起來。
1:46:04
developing world where they do have the capacity to cut rates and have gotten the fiscal balance sheet in order.
你必須對我們所處的形勢保持極度開放的心態，因為局勢可能朝兩個方向發展。
1:46:11
I think we've all been humbled by the pandemic.
這有好壞兩面。
1:46:12
You've got to be tremendously open-minded about the situation we're in that it can break in two directions.
可能很糟，可能非常可怕，也可能很棒，還可能不錯。
1:46:16
Cuts both ways.
我不知道。
1:46:18
Could be bad, could be terrible, could be great, could be good.
可能很糟，可能很可怕，可能很好，可能不錯。
1:46:20
I don't know.
我不知道。
1:46:22
But right now, the market's having its vote.
但現在，市場正在表態。
1:46:24
Equity futures down 4% on the S&P.
標普500指數期貨下跌4%。
1:46:26
We're down across the board.
我們全面下跌。
1:46:27
Bob, I heard the year 2008 for the first time this evening and it came from Nurraini.
Bob，今晚我第一次聽到了2008年這個年份，是Nurraini提到的。
1:46:32
Maybe some people won't be surprised by that.
也許有些人對此並不感到意外。
1:46:35
Are we in a much better position now than we were back then to absorb these kind of
我們現在的狀況是否比當時好得多，足以吸收這類衝擊？
1:46:39
I think so.
我認為是的。
1:46:41
I I think when you look back at that period, there was a lot of systemic leverage across the
我認為當你回顧那段時期，整個體系存在大量系統性槓桿，
1:46:46
system and more importantly, it had invaded a lot of the banking system globally.
更重要的是，它已經侵入了全球許多銀行體系。
1:46:53
So there was a material amount of unwind and the need for a backs stop buyer.
因此當時有大量的去槓桿過程，需要一個最後貸款人（backstop buyer）。
1:46:57
Hence tarp and all the other sorts of policies that have since come out of that.
所以才有了TARP（不良資產救助計劃）以及隨後衍生的其他各種政策。
1:47:02
We don't see that degree of leverage in the banking system.
我們在銀行體系中沒有看到那種程度的槓桿。
1:47:05
Currently this looks to be something closer to I dare say it a normal recession if we go with Mike Feroli.
目前看來，如果我們採用Mike Feroli的說法，這更接近於我敢說的一次正常衰退。
1:47:16
Um I know there is no such thing as a normal recession.
嗯，我知道沒有什麼所謂的「正常衰退」。
1:47:18
They're still incredibly painful and we need to be sensitive to that.
它們仍然非常痛苦，我們需要對此保持敏感。
1:47:23
But I think a major crisis, it just doesn't look like that's in the making for now.
但我認為，一場重大危機，目前看來並沒有在醞釀之中。
1:47:28
Equity futures this evening, a lot of heavy lifting from the words for now.
今晚的期貨走勢，很大程度上取決於「目前」這兩個字。
1:47:33
Equity futures down by 4% on the S&P 500.
標普500指數期貨下跌4%。
1:47:36
Up next on the program, final thoughts heading into a brand new trading week.
接下來進入節目，在全新交易週開始前的最後思考。
1:47:40
Live from New York.
紐約現場直播。
1:47:41
You're watching Bloomberg Surveillance.
您正在收看彭博監測（Bloomberg Surveillance）。
1:47:44
[Music] [Music]
[音樂] [音樂]
1:48:00
I prided myself uh probably wrongly uh having uh worked in many countries, been
我曾為自己感到自豪——可能錯了——因為我在許多國家工作過，
1:48:09
brought up as a child in the Middle East and in the Far East, having a mother who
小時候在中東和遠東長大，母親
1:48:16
was not uh British, she was a Hungarian.
並非英國人，她是匈牙利人。
1:48:19
She was a survivor from Awitz and I was the son of a Holocaust survivor.
她是奧維茲（Awitz）的倖存者，我是大屠殺倖存者的兒子。
1:48:27
A and being involved with lots of people, I thought to myself, I know a lot about
A 和與許多人接觸後，我心想，我對
1:48:31
diversity.
多元性了解很多。
1:48:32
Uh and I know about inclusion and not being included.
呃，我也了解包容與不被包容。
1:48:37
But actually when I came out, I realized that my level of understanding was not very high.
但實際上當我出櫃後，我才意識到我的理解程度並不高。
1:48:46
And actually I could see both the support and the con and the and the rejection of
事實上，我看到了支持、反對以及
1:48:51
uh being different and what you had to do to live a life where you were
對與眾不同的排斥，以及為了過著與眾不同的生活所必須做的事。
1:48:58
different.
1814.
1:49:00
And I'm immensely pleased that I was outed when I was 60, just under 60.
我非常高興在我快滿 60 歲時被公開出櫃。
1:49:07
Uh because I had I not been outed, I probably would have said I could stay in the closet and still
呃，因為如果我沒有被公開出櫃，我可能會說我可以繼續隱藏在櫃中，並且
1:49:12
believe that I knew everything, which I didn't.
仍然相信自己什麼都知道，但其實我並不知道。
1:49:15
Uh and uh that was a very important moment for [Music]
呃，這對我來說是個非常重要的時刻 [音樂]
1:49:27
Africa, a region rife with potential for growth and opportunities, but not without its challenges.
非洲，一個充滿增長潛力和機遇的地區，但也面臨挑戰。
1:49:35
Bloomberg highlights the biggest stories, interviewing key players, and reporting
Bloomberg 會突出報導重大新聞，訪談關鍵人物，並針對影響該地區的議題進行報導。
1:49:38
on the issues impacting the region.
並報導影響該地區的議題。
1:49:43
Join us as we get to the heart of African business, politics, and economics, and
加入我們，深入探討非洲的商業、政治與經濟核心，
1:49:46
ask the question, what's next?
並提出這個問題：下一步是什麼？
1:49:51
I'm Jennifer Zabasa, and this is Next Africa.
我是 Jennifer Zabasa，這裡是《Next Africa》。
1:49:52
New episodes every month, only on Bloomberg.
每月新集數，僅在 Bloomberg。
1:49:57
Asia is at the forefront of some of the world's biggest stories.
亞洲正處於全球一些重大新聞的最前線。
1:50:02
And we're here where the action starts in Sydney and in Tokyo.
而我們就在這裡，行動在雪梨與東京展開。
1:50:04
Get ahead as the global trading day begins.
在全球交易日開始時搶先一步。
1:50:07
The Asia Trade weekdays only on Bloomberg bringing you the latest in tech and AI
《The Asia Trade》僅在平日播出，為您帶來最新的科技與 AI 新聞，
1:50:14
news whenever and wherever it happens.
隨時隨地，即時掌握。
1:50:17
I'm Tom McKenzie in Paris and this is Bloomberg.
我是 Paris 的 Tom McKenzie，這裡是 Bloomberg。
1:50:21
In case you missed it on Bloomberg open interest finding some sense in these crazy markets.
如果您錯過了 Bloomberg 的 Open Interest，別擔心，我們在這些瘋狂的市場中為您尋找一絲道理。
1:50:28
I hope they turn around though, you know, because my 401k I'm looking at my 40 my
我希望它們能反轉，您知道，因為我的 401k，我看著我的 40 歲退休金，
1:50:31
retirement and I'm thinking, God, how many more decades do I have to look your retirement account?
我心想，天啊，我還要看著您的退休帳戶多少個十年？
1:50:38
I cannot say that enough.
這句話我怎麼說都不夠。
1:50:39
Set it to find a new target.
設定它以尋找新目標。
1:50:42
We need to find maybe a a new future.
我們需要尋找一個新的未來。
1:50:44
I'll be standing next to Paul Sweeney as a greeter at Walmart, you know, in our
我會和 Paul Sweeney 一起站在沃爾瑪當接待員，您知道，在我們 70 歲的時候。
1:50:47
Don't miss Open interest live weekdays.
別錯過平日的即時未平倉量。
1:51:03
live from New York City this evening.
今晚從紐約市現場直播。
1:51:04
Welcome to the program.
歡迎收看本節目。
1:51:06
It's going to be a very, very long trading week.
這將是個非常、非常漫長的交易週。
1:51:08
Equity futures down across the board here.
股指期貨全面下跌。
1:51:09
We're negative 4.5%.
我們下跌了4.5%。
1:51:11
We're down five on the NASDAQ, down by more than that on a Russell.
那斯達克指數下跌五個基點，羅素指數跌幅更大。
1:51:14
Let's cross over to Danny for more.
我們切換到Danny的報導。
1:51:16
Hey, Danny.
Danny，妳好。
1:51:17
Hey, John.
John，你好。
1:51:18
It is a feeling that any risky asset is selling off this morning and commodities are
今早感覺所有風險資產都在拋售，而商品方面
1:51:21
taking a hard hit this evening rather getting my day confused.
今晚也遭受重創，抱歉我搞混了日夜。
1:51:27
Brent crude down more than 3.4% after not just the recessionary fears but the Saudis also
布蘭特原油下跌超過3.4%，除了經濟衰退的擔憂外，沙烏地阿拉伯也
1:51:31
downgrading cutting their level for oil too.
下調了他們的石油預估等級。
1:51:34
So that's taking a big impact.
這造成了巨大影響。
1:51:38
I'd point to copper down here too down 6%.
我要指出銅價也在下跌，跌幅達6%。
1:51:38
This is such a change in fortune for this bellweather metal that not that long ago we were talking about shrinking
對於這個指標性金屬來說，命運出現如此大的轉變，不久前我們還在談論供應
1:51:44
supplies, meaning that this asset should rally again.
縮減，意味著這項資產應該會再次反彈。
1:51:47
It's something that looks a little bit more like a recessionary fear.
現在看來，情況更像是經濟衰退的擔憂。
1:51:50
So, the weird one in all of this is the fact that gold is also selling off.
所以，這其中最奇怪的是黃金也在下跌。
1:51:55
It is down 1% the spot price.
現貨價格下跌了1%。
1:51:58
Maybe that points to more of a panicky kind of trade where everything is hard hit this
也許這指向了更恐慌的交易類型，今早所有資產都遭受重創。
1:52:02
But there is one haven of choice this evening I should say that people are buying into and that is
但今晚有一個首選的避風港，我應該說，人們正在買進，那就是
1:52:07
treasuries.
國債。
1:52:08
The cash market is not open.
現貨市場尚未開盤。
1:52:09
It won't open until about 8:00 p.m., but the future is trading.
要到晚上8點左右才會開盤，但期貨正在交易。
1:52:13
You can see the level that is at at this moment would imply about a 14 basis point drop in
你可以看到目前的水準意味著收益率將下跌約14個基點。
1:52:19
So, if this thing sticks, Monday will be another big day for this bond market.
所以，如果這種情況持續，週一對債券市場來說將是又一個大日子。
1:52:24
John Danny, thank you.
John Danny，謝謝您。
1:52:26
Great word this evening.
今晚的報導很精彩。
1:52:27
Catch Danny Burger tomorrow morning, 5:00 a.m.
明天早上5點請鎖定 Danny Burger，東部時間，
1:52:29
Eastern time to kick off your morning stateside as we approach the first full day of trading.
以開啟您在美國的早晨，我們即將迎來第一個完整的交易日。
1:52:33
Here's your trading calendar.
這是您的交易日曆。
1:52:36
Your diary looks like this.
您的日程安排如下。
1:52:36
On Monday, EU trade ministers are meeting and President Trump will hold a news conference with
週一，歐盟貿易部長將舉行會議，川普總統將在東部時間2點30分
1:52:40
Israel's prime minister at 2:30 Eastern time.
與以色列總理舉行新聞發布會。
1:52:43
So, look out for that.
所以，請留意這一點。
1:52:45
On Wednesday, we're looking for reciprocal tariffs to kick in.
週三，我們將關注對等關稅的生效。
1:52:48
On Thursday, another round of jobless claims, plus CPI data.
週四，新一輪的失業救濟金請領數據，加上消費者物價指數（CPI）數據。
1:52:50
On Friday, PPI and sentiment, plus bank earnings kicking off.
週五，生產者物價指數（PPI）與消費者信心指數，加上銀行財報季開跑。
1:52:55
We'll get numbers from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley.
我們將看到摩根大通、富國銀行與摩根士丹利的數據。
1:52:57
Bob Michael at JP Morgan Asset Management still with us around the table.
摩根大通資產管理公司的 Bob Michael 依然與我們同桌。
1:53:00
Bob, for some final thoughts, sir, approaching a brand new week, how are you and the team gearing up?
Bob，作為最後的總結，面對全新的一週，您和團隊做了哪些準備？
1:53:07
How do you approach this moment?
您如何看待這個時刻？
1:53:08
Well, I I think you deal with the present.
嗯，我認為要專注於當下。
1:53:11
You look at where the markets are.
觀察市場的現況。
1:53:13
You look at your portfolios and make sure that they can last through a cycle and you've
檢視您的投資組合，確保它們能度過一個完整的週期，並且您已經
1:53:16
positioned for some of this.
為此做好了佈局。
1:53:19
I feel we're in good shape.
我認為我們的狀況良好。
1:53:21
You watch the development of the news.
密切關注新聞的發展。
1:53:23
I think two very important things are going to happen um in the coming week.
我認為接下來一週將發生兩件非常重要的事。
1:53:28
One is financial conditions have tightened a lot.
一是金融條件已經大幅收緊。
1:53:29
So that's a bit different than when we last heard pal only though it was a couple days ago.
這與我們上次聽到 Powell 的談話有些不同，雖然只是幾天前的事。
1:53:35
So now he's got to address that.
所以他現在必須對此做出回應。
1:53:37
The good news is you should add to the calendar we have about half a dozen Fed speakers next week.
好消息是，請記在行事曆上，下週我們將有大約六位聯準會官員發言。
1:53:44
So they're going to be out there.
所以他們將會出面。
1:53:45
These are the people that you need to ask these questions to.
這些正是您需要提問的對象。
1:53:47
How do they weigh this?
他們如何權衡這一點？
1:53:48
How do they evaluate financial conditions?
他們如何評估財務狀況？
1:53:51
Are they really going to sit on the sidelines because of a one-time price change and let the economy crash
他們真的會因為一次性的價格變動而袖手旁觀，讓經濟崩潰
1:53:57
into recession?
陷入衰退嗎？
1:53:59
Let's see what they say.
讓我們聽聽他們怎麼說。
1:53:59
Is any economic data completely obsolete and irrelevant to this moment?
有沒有任何經濟數據在當下是完全過時且無關緊要的？
1:54:06
It's becoming more irrelevant as the minutes pass.
隨著時間一分一秒過去，它變得越來越無關緊要。
1:54:08
Um, I think it told us the economy was in okay shape going into this.
嗯，我認為它告訴我們經濟在這一切發生前還算穩定。
1:54:15
Pal's fault after all.
歸根結底是 Pal 的錯。
1:54:16
Maybe it's J.
也許是 J。
1:54:18
Maybe he created the idealic soft landing.
也許是他創造了理想的軟著陸。
1:54:21
It enabled the administration to be tough on tariffs.
這讓政府得以在關稅問題上採取強硬立場。
1:54:24
I don't know.
我不知道。
1:54:26
Um but when you look at this, the US economy was doing okay, but there were some signs of
嗯，但當你審視這一切時，美國經濟當時表現尚可，但出現了一些
1:54:30
a little bit of softening.
疲軟的跡象。
1:54:33
When you saw the quits rate and the hiring rate start to slow down, it looked like the market,
當你看到離職率和招聘率開始放緩時，看起來市場，
1:54:37
it looked like the economy was fatiguing a bit and maybe that would have given the Fed a chance to come in and cut
看起來經濟有些疲憊，也許這給了聯準會機會進場並
1:54:44
rates a couple more times.
再降息幾次。
1:54:47
All of that has changed.
這一切都變了。
1:54:47
High yield worries them.
高收益債讓他們感到擔憂。
1:54:48
Credit worries them.
信貸狀況令他們擔憂。
1:54:50
If I think back to 2018 when we saw an aggressive widening and high yield yields, what we also saw
如果我回想 2018 年，當時我們看到收益率強勢擴大且高收益債收益率高企，我們同時也看到
1:54:54
on the supply side was that zero no issuance that month in December 2018.
供給面方面，2018 年 12 月當月零（無）新債發行。
1:55:01
I think that unnerfed the Federal Reserve.
我認為這讓聯準會感到不安。
1:55:02
What would you expect from the supply side from credit for the weeks to come?
就供給面而言，您預期未來幾週信貸市場會如何發展？
1:55:06
And do you think that would be sufficient to unfer this Federal Reserve if we started to see credit freeze up?
您認為如果信貸開始凍結，這是否足以讓聯準會感到不安？
1:55:11
Yeah, I I think supply has to pull back.
是的，我認為供給必須收縮。
1:55:14
The good news is for the first three months of the year we saw a very hefty supply.
好消息是，今年前三個月我們看到了非常龐大的供給。
1:55:19
So a lot of businesses got their funding out of the way.
因此許多企業已經完成了融資。
1:55:23
They can wait it out.
它們可以等待時機。
1:55:23
I don't know that this week will tell us anything but I think as we get to the second half of April if we don't
我不知道本週會透露什麼訊息，但我認為到了四月下旬，如果我們看到企業無法為自己進行融資，那麼聯準會將會非常非常擔憂。
1:55:30
see businesses being able to finance themselves then the Fed will be really really worried.
如果這個市場持續下去，我看不出市場會對新發行債券有興趣。
1:55:36
I can't see if this market continues that the market will be receptive to new issuance.
Bob，感謝您今晚的時間。
1:55:41
Bob appreciate your time this evening.
這是一個值得關注的焦點。
1:55:41
It's one to watch.
謝謝您，先生。
1:55:43
Thank you sir.
謝謝您的邀請。
1:55:44
Thanks for having me.
期待與您同行。
1:55:44
Looking forward to being on this journey with you.
這是摩根大通資產管理公司的 Bob Michael，期貨方面由 Lisa 為您做全盤報導。
1:55:46
Bob Michael there of JP Morgan Asset Management equity futures here Lisa down across the board.
有一件事真的讓我印象深刻，高盛合夥人、交易專家 John Flood 出面表示...
1:55:50
One thing that really keeps sticking out in my head, a Goldman Sachs partner came out trading specialist John Flood right
有一件事真的讓我印象深刻，高盛合夥人、交易專家 John Flood 在 4 月 2 日之後立即現身表示，「我擔心 4 月 2 日之後，即使今晚談判方面出現積極進展，也很難再把牙膏擠回管子裡了。」
1:55:56
after April 2nd and he said, "I worry that post April 2nd it will be very difficult to put the toothpaste back the
在4月2日之後，他說：「我擔心4月2日之後，即使今晚談判方面出現積極進展，也很難再把牙膏擠回管子裡了。」
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tube even if and when we see positive developments on the negotiation front this evening.
即使今晚談判方面出現積極進展，也很難再把牙膏擠回管子裡了。
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That seems to be what we're waking up to.
這似乎就是我們今天醒來所面對的現狀。
1:56:10
We're struggling with that right now.
我們現在正為此而苦苦掙扎。
1:56:11
Equities are down across the board.
股市全面下跌。
1:56:13
Coming up tomorrow on Bloomberg Surveillance, Chris Verona Strategus, Dan Skelly of Morgan Stanley,
明天在《Bloomberg Surveillance》節目中，我們將邀請到Chris Verona（Strategus）、摩根士丹利的Dan Skelly、
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former senior Trump trade adviser Kellyanne Shaw, Lori Cavscina of RBC.
前特朗普高級貿易顧問Kellyanne Shaw，以及加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）的Lori Cavscina。
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And up next on Bloomberg TV, the Asia trade with Sheranne and Heidi Straoud Watts.
接下來在Bloomberg TV，將播出由Sheranne和Heidi Straoud Watts主持的《亞洲交易時段》。
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Live from New York City.
這裡是紐約市的現場直播。
1:56:28
A major tariff push from the president of the United States with a big objective in mind.
美國總統發起了一項重大的關稅行動，心中懷著一個宏大的目標。
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That does it for us.
以上就是我們的報導。
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The journey is going to be a bumpy one.
這段旅程將會是顛簸起伏的。
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From New York.
發自紐約。
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The destination unknown.
前途未卜。
1:56:38
Good evening.
晚安。
1:56:41
Today CFOs are reshaping the seauite.
今日，財務長們正在重塑商業格局。
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Bloomberg's chief future officer shines a spotlight on these dynamic leaders.
Bloomberg的首席未來官將聚焦於這些充滿活力的領導者。
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What's the hardest part of being a CFO?
擔任財務長最困難的部分是什麼？
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It's hard to come up with that.
這很難一概而論。
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It's the vast responsibilities, the need to be engaged in different topics.
是廣泛的職責，以及需要涉獵不同領域的需求。
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It's remembering which audience I'm speaking to and what I I can say in that context.
要記住我是在對哪個聽眾說話，以及在該情境下我能說什麼。
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The job is not just being the the executive of the finance function.
工作不僅是擔任財務部門的主管。
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It's being an executive for the company.
而是要成為公司的執行者。
1:57:13
I would say it's um prioritization.
我會說這是優先順序的安排。
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Complete the sentence.
把句子說完。
1:57:16
The hardest part of being the CFO is telling people no.
擔任財務長最困難的部分是告訴別人不行。
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It's hard.
這很難。
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It's the right thing to do, but it's always hard.
這是正確的做法，但總是很難。
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So being just like a touch of a heartbreaker, basically.
所以基本上就像是當個有點令人心碎的角色。
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We have a plethora of good opportunities.
我們有大量很好的機會。
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Some are really, really good.
有些真的非常、非常好。
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But as we strive for the great ones, sometimes those really, really good ones have to be left behind.
但當我們追求那些極好的機會時，有時那些真的、很好的機會就必須被放棄。
1:57:36
New episode premieres April
新集將於四月首播
