The countdown is on, everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day.
倒數計時開始，這是你在市場收盤時所需的一切優勢。
00:08
This is the close.
這是收盤時刻。
00:12
Minimum versus maximum or maybe nothing at all.
最小值對最大值，或許什麼都沒有。
00:15
Live from studio two here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York, I'm Romaine Boston.
現場直播來自紐約布隆伯格總部的二號攝影棚，我是羅梅恩·波士頓。
00:19
And I'm Alex Steele.
我是亞歷克斯·斯蒂爾。
00:20
Talk about an unbelievable hour and a half in the market.
談談市場中難以置信的一個半小時。
00:22
I stepped out of the office for an hour when I came back, apparently we're in a whole new tariff regime.
我離開辦公室一個小時，回來時發現我們似乎進入了一個全新的關稅制度。
00:26
Literally an entirely different scenario.
完全不同的情境。
00:28
Let's just check it out here.
讓我們來看看這裡。
00:30
The S&P is now up 7% at one point.
標普500指數一度上漲7%。
00:33
We hadn't seen this kind of move for the S&P since 2020 of such a large move higher.
自2020年以來，我們還沒有看到標普500指數有過如此大幅的上漲。
00:39
You look at the VIX here kind of crashing down here at 36, the NASDAQ 100 at one point.
你看看VIX指數在這裡暴跌至36，那斯達克100指數一度。
00:44
The biggest move higher since 2008.
自2008年以來最大的漲幅。
00:45
I can go on for hours with you to Purliv's Romaine and the 20 year 20 basis point move to the upside.
我可以和你談上幾個小時，羅梅恩，關於20年期20個基點的上漲。
00:53
Again, we haven't seen this in decades, Romaine, short covering or what have you, some serious moves in the market.
再說一次，我們幾十年來沒有見過這種情況，羅梅恩，空頭回補或其他，市場有嚴重的波動。
01:00
And in fact, the extreme volatility you're seeing today is actually going to now earn this rally.
事實上，你今天看到的極端波動實際上將推動這次反彈。
01:04
Something that we haven't been able to call it up into this point on precedent it Monday saw the biggest intraday point swing in history for the S&P 500 and second biggest percentage point swing since GFC.
As for the S&P 500 at one point in the day, all but two of the stocks in that benchmark were in the green.
至於標普500指數，在一天中的某個時點，該基準中的所有股票除了兩隻之外都在上漲。
01:35
In fact, you have to go all the way back to December 26th, 2018 to see that type of breath.
事實上，你必須回溯到 2018 年 12 月 26 日才能看到那種幅度的反彈。
01:41
That was the day that all but one S&P stock rose and funny enough that 2018 rally was also during the Trump presidency where his comments on policy leading up to that had contributed to a 19% S&P 500 drawdown before he finally jawboned a massive rebound.
This time in 2025 is deja vu all over again, a 19% drawdown also spurred by White House policy and a massive rally today spurred by a shift in White House policy.
The good news is that that 2018 rebound did stick.
好消息是，2018 年的反彈確實持續了下來。
02:13
The S&P went on to rally an additional 8% over four months and about 35% through 2019 before the pandemic of course brought things to a halt at the beginning of 2020.
But one big asterisk remains and that is well, the tariffs are still there, the minimum floor at least and the threat of maximum tariffs that lingers over the negotiating table.
但有一個大問號仍然存在，那就是關稅仍然存在，至少有最低基準，而最大關稅的威脅仍然籠罩在談判桌上。
02:34
Every country in the world who wants to come and negotiate, we are willing to hear you.
世界上每個想來談判的國家，我們都願意傾聽。
02:41
We're going to go down to a 10% baseline tariff for them and China will be raised to 125 due to their insistence on escalation.
我們將把他們的關稅基準降至 10%，而中國則因堅持升級而被提高到 125%。
02:53
Scott, that's in the treasury secretary there.
史考特，那是財政部長在說話。
02:55
Alex, you didn't seem very excited but that chart behind you shows the market certainly is.
亞歷克斯，你看起來不太興奮，但你身後的圖表顯示市場確實很興奮。
02:59
Oh, the market was very excited.
噢，市場非常興奮。
03:01
Let's visualize what Romaine was talking about.
讓我們來看看羅曼在說什麼。
03:03
This is intraday moves for the S&P.
這是標普 500 指數的盤中走勢。
03:05
This is where we sit right now, this massive range for the S&P where we were down earlier and then a huge spike up by 7%.
這是我們目前的位置，標普 500 指數的巨大波動範圍，我們早些時候下跌，然後大幅上漲了 7%。
03:13
Now, a lot of you watching weren't even in the market the last time we saw this kind of spike and that was all the way back to 2010 during the financial crisis.
Bessin, that is of detoxing from the addiction of government spending.
也就是Bessin所說的，從政府支出的癮頭中戒除。
04:22
And our idea was as government spending slowed, as we went through this awkward policy sequencing trade before tax policy and spending cuts, that we were likely to see a decent pullback 10 to 12 percent was our call.
But over the weekend and by late last week in particular, we made the decision that we pretty much fully priced the risk of a recession, that measures of volatility, the VIX, the term structure of the VIX futures,
all those things were priced for an extreme event.
所有這些都為極端事件定價。
05:02
And that the policy outlook was likely to bottom out, that it just wasn't going to get any worse.
我們認為政策前景可能會觸底，情況不會再惡化。
05:07
That we thought it was time to take a stand and put some money to work.
我們認為是時候採取行動，投入一些資金。
05:11
So it's obviously been a really hairy couple of days with having made that call.
顯然，在做出這個決定後，這幾天非常驚險。
05:17
But no, I think this all makes sense.
但不，我認為這一切都合理。
05:22
My explanation for why they pivoted, Bessin would lead you to believe that this was the plan on Sunday.
我對他們為何轉向的解釋是，Bessin會讓你相信這是週日的計劃。
05:29
To be fair, we thought we'd wind up with a 10 percent baseline tariff.
公平地說，我們以為會以10%的基準關稅收場。
05:34
And we'd start negotiating with everybody but China.
我們會開始與所有人談判，除了中國。
05:37
But that said, what's going on in the treasury market, and one of the things we were concerned about in our note this weekend was that the trade policy could derail what we consider to be the absolute, utmost important policy initiative, which is cutting government spending
and getting it back on track to 20 and a half percent of GDP.
並將其回到 GDP 的 20.5% 的軌道上。
05:57
It's the only way to stabilize the debt and deficits.
這是穩定債務和赤字的唯一方法。
06:01
Well, I'm sorry, Barry, when is that happening?
好的，巴里，這什麼時候會發生？
06:05
Because this has been a big topic of conversation over the last few weeks, as we focus on tariffs and prior to that, all the DEI nonsense here.
因為在過去幾週裡，這一直是熱門話題，當我們專注於關稅問題，以及之前所有的 DEI 無稽之談。
06:12
We had a president who ran on a policy of being pro business, deregulation, cutting spending, and getting the budget in some sort of order here.
我們有一位總統，他競選時承諾支持商業、減少管制、削減支出，並整頓預算。
06:20
That seems like that was on the back burner as he dealt with these other issues.
看起來這些承諾被擱置了，因為他正在處理其他問題。
06:24
You have confidence now that he and more importantly, Congress are ready to tackle this.
你現在有信心，他和更重要的國會準備好解決這個問題。
06:29
Yeah, it's a great point.
是的，這是一個很好的觀點。
06:31
So my policy priorities as an investor is number one, cutting spending, getting it back on track to 20 and a half percent of GDP.
所以作為投資者，我的政策優先事項第一是削減支出，將其回到 GDP 的 20.5% 的軌道上。
06:40
It's 50 year median level.
這是 50 年的中位數水平。
06:43
Number two is pro corporate supply side tax policy, reinstating immediate expensing for equipment investment, R&D spending, those initiatives.
第二是支持企業供給側的稅收政策，恢復設備投資和研發支出的立即攤銷。
06:55
And then number three is deregulation of the energy and financial sector.
第三是放寬能源和金融部門的管制。
06:59
Trade policy is really on the low end of my list.
貿易政策在我的清單中排名較低。
07:02
Obviously, President Trump got elected partially in 16 and 24 because of that particular issue.
顯然，川普總統在 16 年和 24 年部分因為這個問題而當選。
07:09
So that's the main street Wall Street dynamic.
這就是主街和華爾街的動態。
07:12
But what I think happened over the last couple of days, Romaine, is it's a little bit arcane, but one of the trades that was very big with the hedge fund community and bond community was the so-called that's it put.
And it was swap spreads, a swap spread, this idea that swap spreads would tighten relative to future relative to cash.
這是互換利差，互換利差的概念是，互換利差相對於期貨相對於現金會縮小。
07:33
And we would get because of less.
而我們會因為減少而得到。
07:35
Hey Barry, hey Barry, hold that thought for just one second.
喂，巴里，巴里，先別急著說。
07:38
We do want to go and listen to the president right now, speaking outside of the White House.
我們現在要去聽總統在白宮外的講話。
07:41
I want you to make a deal.
我希望你能達成協議。
07:42
They just don't know how quite to go about it.
他們只是不知道該如何著手。
07:44
You know, it's one of those things.
你知道，這就是那種事。
07:45
I don't know how quite the proud people.
我不知道這些自豪的人該如何處理。
07:49
And President Xi's a proud man.
而習主席是個自豪的人。
07:51
I know him very well.
我非常了解他。
07:52
And they don't know quite how to go about it, but they'll figure it out in the process of figuring it out.
他們不知道該如何著手，但在解決過程中會找到辦法。
07:57
But they want to make a deal.
但他們想達成協議。
07:59
And we have many other countries as you know, many more than 75.
而我們有許多其他國家，你知道，超過75個。
08:05
And they all want to come and they want to come here, or they'll go to commerce or they'll go to treasury.
他們都想來，想來這裡，或者去商務部或財政部。
08:09
We have our great senators here and congressmen.
我們有偉大的參議員和眾議員在這裡。
08:14
They'll call John to somebody.
他們會打電話給約翰或其他人。
08:16
They'll go through somebody.
他們會通過某人。
08:17
But they're all calling, how do we do this?
但他們都在打電話問：我們該怎麼做？
08:19
They all want to make a deal.
他們都想達成協議。
08:20
Somebody had to do what we did.
有人必須做我們所做的事。
08:22
And I did a 90-day pause for the people that didn't retaliate.
而我為那些沒有報復的人設了90天的暫停。
08:26
Because I told them, if you retaliate, we're going to double it.
因為我告訴他們，如果你報復，我們會加倍反擊。
08:29
And that's what I did with China, because they did retaliate.
而這正是我對中國所做的，因為他們確實進行了報復。
08:33
So we'll see how it all works out.
所以我們會看到結果如何。
08:34
I think it's going to work out amazing.
我認為結果會非常驚人。
08:36
I think that our country's going to be at the end of a year or shorter.
我認為我們的國家在一年內或更短的時間內會有所成就。
08:40
But I think we're going to have something that nobody would have dreamt possible.
但我認為我們將會取得連做夢都想不到的成就。
08:44
A man like Roger Penske, I don't want to get him in trouble with China, so I won't.
像羅傑·彭斯克這樣的人，我不想讓他在中國惹上麻煩，所以我不會這樣做。
08:48
But he would know that you have to, someday you have to cut the bow, and you have to do what you have to do.
但他知道，總有一天你必須斬斷束縛，你必須做你該做的事。
08:54
Right, Roger?
對吧，羅傑？
08:55
And that's what I did.
而這正是我所做的。
08:57
And I'm very happy to have done this.
我非常高興能這樣做。
08:58
Mr. Inhale?
吸氣先生？
09:00
The Prime Minister of Greece just told great parts of Matt Boyle that he thinks absolutely the European Union and the United States could work out a trade deal that's win-win and, quote, mutually beneficial to both sides.
What do you think about the Prime Minister's comments?
你對總理的評論有何看法？
09:13
Do you think a deal could be struck with European Union?
你認為可以與歐盟達成協議嗎？
09:16
First of all, I know he's a good man, and I appreciate his comments.
首先，我知道他是一個好人，我感謝他的評論。
09:19
Yeah, a deal could be made with every one of them.
是的，可以與每一個國家達成協議。
09:21
Deal, a deal's going to be made with China, a deal's going to be made with every one of them.
協議將與中國達成，協議將與每一個國家達成。
09:26
And they'll be fair deals.
而這些協議將是公平的。
09:28
I just want fair.
我只想要公平。
09:30
They won't be fair deals for everybody.
這些交易不會對每個人都公平。
09:33
But they weren't fair to the United States.
但它們對美國不公平。
09:36
They were sucking us dry, and you can't do that.
它們在榨取我們，你不能這樣做。
09:39
We have $36 trillion of debt for a reason.
我們有36萬億美元的債務是有原因的。
09:43
We don't have it there for fun.
我們不是為了好玩才有這些債務。
09:45
They have it for a reason.
它們有這些債務是有原因的。
09:46
And people took advantage of our country, and they ripped us off for decades.
人們利用了我們的國家，並且數十年來一直在欺騙我們。
09:52
I've been thinking about this for decades.
我已經思考這個問題數十年了。
09:54
I've been, if you ever saw me on television, I was young like these guys.
如果你曾在電視上看到我，我當時和這些人一樣年輕。
09:58
And it was a good old days, I'll tell you, Roger.
我告訴你，羅傑，那時候是美好的日子。
10:01
But I was like these guys young, and I was talking about it.
但我和這些人一樣年輕，我當時就在談論這個問題。
10:05
Nothing changed, and nothing was done about it.
什麼都沒有改變，什麼都沒有做。
10:08
Then I did it, in my first term, I did it, and did it well.
然後我在我的第一個任期內做到了，而且做得很好。
10:13
We took in hundreds of billions of dollars from China and others, and I started the process.
我們從中國和其他國家收取了數千億美元，我開始了這個過程。
10:18
But then we had to fix up from the COVID mess caused by China.
但後來我們不得不修復由中國引起的COVID混亂。
10:22
We had to fix up from that, and we did a good job of doing it.
我們不得不修復這個問題，我們做得很好。
10:25
And then when we handed back the reins after a rigged election, and we handed back the reins, the stock market was higher than it was before COVID coming in.
然後在一次操縱的選舉後，我們交出了權力，當時股市比COVID來襲前還要高。
10:34
So, you know, we did a great job, but we didn't have time to do the big thing, which we're doing now.
所以，你知道，我們做得很好，但我們沒有時間去做大事，而這正是我們現在在做的。
10:41
And it's like a patient is sick, you have to do surgery.
這就像一個病人生病了，你必須做手術。
10:45
Patient is very, very sick.
病人病得很重。
10:48
And Joe Biden handed us over a country that was in very serious trouble, economically and in every other way.
而喬·拜登交給我們一個在經濟和其他各方面都陷入嚴重困境的國家。
10:55
They let China run away with things.
他們讓中國為所欲為。
10:57
They let other countries run away with things.
他們讓其他國家為所欲為。
11:00
And maybe worst of all, in a certain way, is what they did at the border.
而在某種程度上，最糟糕的是他們在邊境所做的事。
11:03
We had people pouring into our country by the millions.
我們有數百萬人湧入我們的國家。
11:07
Many of them were murderers and drug lords and thieves and people from prisons, from all over the world.
其中許多人是殺人犯、毒梟、盜賊和來自世界各地監獄的人。
11:14
And there were people from mental institutions, insane asylums.
還有來自精神病院、瘋人院的人。
11:18
They were taking them mentally insane, and they were dumping them into our country.
他們把精神病患者帶來，然後把他們傾倒到我們的國家。
11:25
And I'll tell you, Tom Holman and Christine Oma doing a fantastic job in removing them.
我告訴你，Tom Holman和Christine Oma在驅逐他們方面做得非常出色。
11:31
And now the courts, the Supreme Court just gave us numerous good rulings where we have to be able to get them out.
現在法院，最高法院剛剛給了我們許多有利的裁決，我們必須能夠將他們驅逐出境。
11:38
You had other judges trying to take over the system and think of it.
你有其他法官試圖接管這個系統，想想看。
11:43
They take over.
他們接管了。
11:43
They want these people coming back.
他們希望這些人回來。
11:45
Trendy Rockwa from Venezuela.
來自委內瑞拉的Trendy Rockwa。
11:47
The Venezuela jails that cut off the fingers of a man in Colorado.
來自委內瑞拉監獄的人在科羅拉多州砍掉了一個人的手指。
11:53
They cut off his fingers because he called the police looking for help.
他們砍掉他的手指，因為他打電話給警察尋求幫助。
11:57
He said, did you call the police?
他說，你打電話給警察了嗎？
11:59
He said, yes, I did.
他說，是的，我打了。
12:01
Put your hand down and they cut off the fingers.
把你的手放下，他們就砍掉了手指。
12:03
This is what they want to bring these people back now.
這就是他們現在想把這些人帶回來的原因。
12:06
And I want to thank the president of El Salvador for the job he's done because that is, that's the way it has to be done.
我要感謝薩爾瓦多總統所做的工作，因為這就是應該做的方式。
12:13
Mr. President, is your president?
總統先生，他是你的總統嗎？
12:15
Yeah, please.
是的，請繼續。
12:16
Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.
查克·舒默和南希·佩洛西。
12:17
They've been talking about terrorists for decades.
他們幾十年來一直在談論恐怖分子。
12:19
That's right.
是的。
12:20
How about when these Democrat elites want terrorists?
當這些民主黨精英想要恐怖分子時呢？
12:21
Everything from the door to the public president from once in years and all help races.
從門到公共總統，從過去幾年到所有種族的幫助。
12:25
Do you see this double standard?
你們看到這個雙重標準了嗎？
12:27
I love this guy.
我喜歡這個人。
12:28
Whoever the hell that is.
不管他是誰。
12:30
That's really nice.
這真的很好。
12:31
I appreciate that question.
我感謝這個問題。
12:33
No, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, everybody knew you had to do it, but they never had the guts to do it.
不，查克·舒默和南希·佩洛西，每個人都知道你必須這麼做，但他們從來沒有膽量去做。
12:37
It does take guts.
這確實需要膽量。
12:38
It even takes guts for our country to go through it.
甚至我們的國家要經歷這一切也需要膽量。
12:41
That's why I say, be cool.
因此，我說，保持冷靜。
12:42
They were saying about, you see, just be cool.
他們說，你看，只要保持冷靜。
12:44
It's going to work out.
事情會解決的。
12:45
It's going to work out.
事情會解決的。
12:46
And it's, it's working out.
而且這正在發揮作用。
12:48
I can tell you, working out maybe faster than I thought.
我可以告訴你，發揮作用的速度可能比我想像的還要快。
12:52
But I said, it's, you know, it's, it's going to take a little conditioning.
但我說過，這需要一些調整。
12:57
It's a transition to, it's really, I think it's a transition to greatness.
這是一個過渡期，我認為這是一個通往偉大的過渡期。
13:02
It's going to be greatness.
這將是偉大的。
13:03
Our country is going to be, there'll be nothing like it.
我們的國家將會變得前所未有。
13:05
And people investing in our country, they're going to do better than they've ever done before.
而投資我們國家的人，他們將會比以往任何時候都做得更好。
13:10
We have more car manufacturers, Roger, coming into our country.
我們有更多的汽車製造商，羅傑，正在進入我們的國家。
13:14
Now, speaking of cars, we've never seen anything like it.
現在，說到汽車，我們從未見過這樣的情況。
13:17
And they're coming in because of the election.
而他們進來是因為選舉。
13:19
But they're coming in because of the tariffs.
但他們進來是因為關稅。
13:22
Because they don't want to pay 25 or 50 or whatever it may be.
因為他們不想支付25%或50%或其他任何可能的關稅。
13:25
They don't want to pay that.
他們不想支付這些。
13:26
They can't pay that.
他們無法支付這些。
13:28
We had three cancellations in Mexico building a plant.
我們有三家在墨西哥建廠的計劃被取消。
13:33
They're all coming into the United States.
他們都進入了美國。
13:36
Canada, they're coming in from China.
加拿大，他們從中國進來。
13:38
They're coming in from everywhere.
他們從各地進來。
13:40
And that's just cars.
而這只是汽車行業。
13:42
We have chip makers come with the biggest chip maker in the world, from Taiwan, coming in, spending $3 billion to build plants.
我們有芯片製造商，世界上最大的芯片製造商，來自台灣，正在進來，投資30億美元建廠。
13:49
And a big, mostly a big plant is a hell of a plant when you spend the kind of money there.
而一個大型工廠，通常是一個非常大的工廠，當你投入那麼多錢的時候。
13:54
They're going to go two to three hundred billion dollars, not million.
他們將投入兩千到三千億美元，不是百萬。
13:58
You know, you'd say million would be the right number.
你知道，你會覺得百萬是個合理的數字。
14:00
It's two to three hundred billion billion dollars.
但實際上是兩千到三千億美元。
14:04
Think of that.
想想看。
14:05
Three hundred billion dollars.
三千億美元。
14:07
If you look at Apple, Apple is going to spend 500 billion dollars building a plant.
你看蘋果公司，蘋果將投入500億美元建造一個工廠。
14:13
They wouldn't be doing that if I didn't do this.
如果我沒有這麼做，他們不會這樣做。
14:15
They'd just keep building them in China.
他們只會繼續在中國建造工廠。
14:18
And that's unsustainable.
這是不可持續的。
14:19
It's not a pleasant thing to do.
這不是一件令人愉快的事情。
14:21
But I appreciate the question.
但我感謝這個問題。
14:24
And, you know, interestingly Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, crazy Nancy, they they've wanted to do this for years, but they never had a president that had the guts to do it.
How did you see the fond markets that persuaded you to?
你是如何看待債券市場，說服你這麼做的？
14:42
No, I was watching the bond market.
不，我一直在觀察債券市場。
14:44
That bond market is very tricky.
那個債券市場非常詭譎。
14:45
I was watching it, but if you look at it now, it's it's beautiful.
我一直在觀察它，但現在看來，它非常美好。
14:50
The bond market right now is beautiful.
現在的債券市場非常美好。
14:53
But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.
但昨晚我看見有些人開始有點不安。
14:57
I think everything had well, the big move wasn't what I did today.
我想一切都很好，但今天的大動作並不是我做的。
15:02
The big move was what I did on Liberation Day.
真正的大動作是我在解放日時做的。
15:05
We had Liberation Day in America.
我們在美國有了解放日。
15:07
We're liberated from all of the horrible deals that were made.
我們從所有那些可怕的協議中解放了出來。
15:10
All of the horrible trade deals that were made.
所有那些可怕的貿易協議。
15:13
And I was helped by people just like this, Senator, Congressman, and Friends, right?
而我得到了像你這樣的人的幫助，參議員、眾議員和朋友們，對吧？
15:19
And we had great help in the Senate.
我們在參議院得到了很大的幫助。
15:23
Republican senators have been amazing.
共和黨參議員們表現得非常出色。
15:24
They stood tall and likewise in the House.
他們堅定不移，眾議院也是如此。
15:28
And John Thune has done an amazing job.
而約翰·圖恩做得非常出色。
15:31
Barrasso has done an amazing job.
巴拉索也做得非常出色。
15:35
I mean, I can't think of a senator really.
我的意思是，我真的想不到有哪位參議員。
15:38
We had tremendous support.
我們得到了巨大的支持。
15:39
We got a bill passed the other day with almost unanimous support in the Senate.
我們前幾天通過了一項法案，在參議院幾乎得到了全體一致的支持。
15:44
And I think we're going to get that in the House, too.
而我想我們在眾議院也會得到這樣的支持。
15:47
And I have to tell you that Mike Johnson is a great speaker.
我必須告訴你，麥克·約翰遜是一位偉大的發言人。
15:51
He's done a fantastic job.
他做得非常出色。
15:53
We had a majority of one.
我們曾經只有一票的多數。
15:54
Now we have a majority of seven.
現在我們有七票的多數。
15:57
And you don't realize how big seven is until you have a majority of one.
你不知道七票有多重要，直到你只多一票。
16:01
Seven sounds like so much, but we're doing well.
七票聽起來很多，但我們表現不錯。
16:04
But Mike Johnson and John Thune have done a really great job.
但麥克·強森和約翰·圖恩做得非常好。
16:08
Mr. President, are you going to influence your decision?
總統先生，你會影響你的決定嗎？
16:11
Did you speak with anyone?
你有跟任何人談過嗎？
16:12
You know, Jamie Diamond and his people?
你知道，傑米·戴蒙和他的團隊？
16:14
Well, I watched Jamie Diamond on Maria Bartiroma show this morning.
我今天早上在瑪麗亞·巴蒂羅莫的節目上看到了傑米·戴蒙。
16:18
And he was very good.
他表現得很好。
16:19
He said that actually made the statement to affect that something had to be done with the tariffs and trade.
他實際上發表聲明，影響到關稅和貿易必須有所作為。
16:25
He said that.
他是這麼說的。
16:26
He said, look, you know, at some point, but he said something has to be done with tariffs and trade.
他說，你知道，在某個時候，但他說關稅和貿易必須有所作為。
16:31
He understood.
他理解。
16:32
He's very smart and very genius financially.
他非常聰明，在財務上非常有天賦。
16:34
He's done a fantastic job at the bank.
他在銀行做得非常出色。
16:38
And he knows that.
他知道這一點。
16:39
Everybody knows that.
每個人都知道這一點。
16:40
Anybody that's even a little bit smart knows that it wasn't sustainable what was happening.
即使是稍微聰明一點的人也知道這種情況是無法持續的。
16:45
Somebody had to pull the trigger.
必須有人採取行動。
16:46
I was willing to pull the trigger.
我願意採取行動。
16:48
They should have been done long ago.
這些事早就該做了。
16:50
Just like Biden should have stopped the border long ago.
就像拜登早該封鎖邊境一樣。
16:53
I mean, allowed 21 million people plus into our country, many of whom should never have been allowed out of prisons and jails.
我的意思是，允許2100多萬人進入我們國家，其中許多人根本不該被放出監獄和拘留所。
17:02
They came out of prisons and jails from all over the world.
他們從世界各地的監獄和拘留所出來。
17:04
And now we're getting them out, bringing them back to their countries.
現在我們正在將他們遣返，送回他們的國家。
17:08
But it's, uh, should have never been done.
但這本來就不該發生。
17:10
And where does it take company?
這會對公司造成什麼影響？
17:12
Yeah, go ahead, please.
是的，請繼續。
17:13
Sir, would you consider exempting some U.S. companies, which is larger companies who have been hit hard and then in the market last week?
先生，您會考慮豁免一些受重創的大型美國公司嗎？他們上週在市場上受到重挫。
17:20
Well, I'll take a look at it as time goes by.
好的，我會隨著時間推移來考慮這件事。
17:22
We're going to take a look at it.
我們會研究一下。
17:23
There are some that have been hard.
有些公司確實受到重創。
17:25
There are some that, by the nature of the company, get hit a little bit harder.
有些公司由於其性質，受到的打擊更大一些。
17:29
And we'll take a look at that.
我們會考慮這一點。
17:30
How are you determined from the next time?
您如何決定下一次的行動？
17:31
Just instinctively, more than anything else.
主要靠直覺，超過其他任何因素。
17:34
I mean, you almost can't take a pencil to paper.
我的意思是，幾乎無法用筆在紙上計算。
17:37
It's really a more of an instinct, I think, than anything else.
我認為這更多是一種直覺，超過其他任何因素。
17:40
When you press the button, it's your credibility, like, because you said that we start with doing the fact that Monday you said no pause.
當你按下按鈕時，這關係到你的信譽，因為你說過我們從不暫停的事實開始，週一你說不暫停。
17:47
You say there is a pause.
你說有暫停。
17:48
So, um...
所以，嗯...
17:49
No, I think you have to have, uh, yeah, it's not a question of that.
不，我認為你必須要有，嗯，是的，這不是一個問題。
17:53
You have to have flexibility.
你必須要有靈活性。
17:55
I could say, here's a wall and I'm going to go through that wall.
我可以說，這裡有一堵牆，我要穿過這堵牆。
17:59
I'm going to go through it no matter what and keep going and you can't go through the wall.
無論如何我都要穿過去，並繼續前進，而你無法穿過這堵牆。
18:04
Sometimes you have to be able to go under the wall, around the wall, or over the wall.
有時候你必須能夠從牆下、牆邊或牆上過去。
18:07
These guys know that better than anybody, right?
這些人比任何人都更懂這個道理，對吧？
18:10
You've got to go around them sometimes.
有時候你必須繞過他們。
18:11
You're not going to go through them.
你無法穿過他們。
18:13
So, I consider, you know, I think in financial markets, because they change.
所以，我認為，你知道，在金融市場中，因為它們會變化。
18:18
Look how much it changed today.
看看今天變化了多少。
18:20
We went from, uh, you know, pretty moderate today, but over the last few days, look pretty dumb to, I guess they say it was the biggest day in financial history.
And then China doesn't know how to go about it yet, but the China does want to make a deal, want to get more on this from Mike Froman, a president of the Council on Foreign Relations.
他還在奧巴馬政府中負責貿易事務。
19:35
He also works in the Obama administration on trade as well.
Well, I think the, uh, the good news is that the president articulated a willingness to be flexible, to exempt certain companies, albeit by his own, instinct and to negotiate.
And there's been a lot of confusion up to now with some members of the administration saying there will be no negotiations, these tariffs are permanent, and there won't be any exemptions to now the president saying the opposite.
所以我假設這將是未來的政策，至少目前是這樣。
20:05
So I assume that will be the policy going forward, at least for now.
You know, with regard to China, whether it's a 50% tariff, 100% tariff, 125% tariff, at some point the tariff is prohibitive, meaning you won't import the good at all.
And that means Americans who rely on those goods, we either have to find them from somewhere else, whether they're produced domestically or from other countries, or do without.
我們已經看到一些製造商表示，他們在獲取所需的零部件或原料方面會有困難，這可能會迫使他們關閉業務。
20:27
And we've already seen some manufacturers saying they're going to have trouble getting the parts or the inputs they need to continue and they may force them to shut down their business.
因此，我們必須看看這如何解決。
20:36
So there we have to see how that, how that gets resolved.
The Chinese have listed a long group of products to retaliate against, including many in the agricultural space. Last time this happened, the US government ended up subsidizing farmers for the losses that they suffered from retaliation. They collected about $70 billion in tariffs from
我們將不得不看看這是否會在農民或其他受影響的行業中再次發生。
20:56
China and gave about 92% of that back to the farmers. We'll have to see whether that happens with farmers or other affected industries going forward.
So when we talk about the negotiations that could potentially come, and I definitely put could up there as a huge qualifier, who are the main nations that you think will sort of be first in that queue to try to strike a deal over these next 90 days?
Well, look, I think as the president and the administration have said, there's a long line, whether it's our neighbors, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Korea, the EU, Australia, and others, where we actually have a trade surplus with Australia, and they still have a 10% tariff
that they're facing. They all want to try and reach some sort of negotiated solution. The EU announced retaliation, but they'd really rather not implement it if they don't have to. They don't think it's good for themselves or for the United States. They'd like to try and reach some sort of
agreement. The question is, what is the president willing to negotiate? Because if the result is a 10% tariff, so we get rid of all the extra so-called reciprocal tariffs, but we end up with a 10% across the board tariff, that is a 500% increase in the current tariff rate.
Countries like Venezuela, North Korea, and Iran have 10% tariffs. Those aren't known for being the most successful wealthiest countries. And so I'm not sure, while the markets may view that as a very positive sign, they were only going to have a 10% tariff, that is not a great place to end up.
好的，定位明顯不利，導致了我們看到的大規模市場反應。
22:26
Well, positioning definitely offside, contributing to the massive market reaction that we've seen.
When we talked about exempting U.S. companies from tariffs, and President Trump said he's going to think about that and do that on instinct, how would you do that? Like, if you were going to put pen to paper, how does one manage that? So normally when there's a trade action of this sort,
there's a process where people can come into the U.S. government and make their case, and they submit for the public, and the public can see all of the requests.
What they call for exemptions are, and then there's a process led by the U.S. Trade Representative Commerce, the International Trade Commission, where they review them and figure out who really needs an exemption and who doesn't. The risk is you sort of leave it to special pleadings, whoever has the best access to the White House may get exemptions, while others may
be left behind. And oftentimes, it's small businesses who aren't very well organized, don't have the kind of clout in Washington that big corporations do, and who are going to be adversely affected and need those exemptions. And the key thing is how to create a process where they can participate as well. I do wonder, Mike, given that this clearly is unresolved,
and you make a good point with those 10 percent tariffs effectively being new, because let's say that they weren't there a little while ago, it raises the question as to how businesses, and particularly little small and mid-sized businesses, even sort of plan for what's next. I mean, if the president could sort of change his mind on a dime like he did
today, why am I to believe that somehow he won't reinstate some of those more extreme maximum tariffs as Scott Vessin put it? I think that's a very good question. And this uncertainty, if you're sitting in a boardroom, or even if you're just a small business, trying to figure out,
do we deploy capital, do we try and open up production in the United States, you're looking for some degree of certainty, because those are expensive decisions that take a long time to relocate your supply chain, to build out factories here in the United States.
And you want to know that what the regulatory environment is going to look like. Is it going to be 10 percent across the board? Will there be peak tariffs? If he's going to be flexible and some industries are going to be exempted, you're going to want to know whether you're exempted before you make any decision. So one of the challenges of being flexible is that it creates
more uncertainty. And that uncertainty may well delay the kinds of decisions that the president is looking for in terms of reshoring production back to the United States.
Mike, really appreciate you taking time for us. Mike Froman, a wealth of knowledge, president of the Council of Foreign Relations, of course, formerly working at the USTR under the Obama administration as we keep an eye on what is a breathtaking rally here with the S&P up 9 percent, the NASDAQ up more than 11. The worst case scenarios that were being priced into this market
是的，關於你的觀點，彭博社報導亞馬遜實際上取消了一些訂單，比如滑板車、桌子、甲板椅等。
25:08
just a few hours ago, now apparently being priced out. Torsten Slock joins us right now, chief economist and partner at Apollo Global Management on a day, or quite frankly, and we should point out, Torsten, on a day where we came in, where we still had a lot of folks on Wall Street predicting recession, at least a couple of those folks on Wall Street over the last hour or so
就在幾個小時前，現在顯然這些情況已經被排除在外。Torsten Sløk現在加入我們，他是Apollo Global Management的首席經濟學家和合夥人，在這一天，或者坦白說，我們應該指出，Torsten，在這一天，我們進來時，仍然有很多華爾街人士預測經濟衰退，至少在過去一個小時左右，華爾街的那些人中有幾位
25:27
have rescinded those recession calls. Is recession still a risk? I do think that recession risk has been removed now, because it ended up that this shock was a lot shorter than what we expected just a few hours ago. What, of course, is still very important is that there's still uncertainty
about what will happen in 90 days, as Mike Froman also was just saying, there's also uncertainty about the 10 percent tariffs. What would that still imply in terms of the impact? And there's certainly also uncertainty in terms of what is the impact of tariffs on China, of this significant magnitude? Let's not forget that surveys show that sellers on Amazon, you have about 70 percent
of them, they saw their goods in China. So that means that there's a significant amount of price increases coming on a broad range of consumer goods coming into the US. So now we all in the economics profession have to go back to our spreadsheets and try to quantify what that means for
the growth outlook. And it's clear that the implication is that there is likely to be still some negative outlook for consumer spending. Yeah, towards and to your point, Bloomberg broke the news that Amazon actually canceled some orders for like scooters, desk, deck chairs,
things like that, because of tariffs. Why is recession taken off the table? Because this doesn't remove any uncertainty, it just provides, if we believe that, a floor and a bot and a top for potential tariff risk. Well, that's right, Alex. And I do also, I think you're absolutely right.
I do also think that markets will still have this cloud hang or saying, well, what about capital markets? What about loan markets, IPO, M&A? We probably still have some level of uncertainty around, okay, so maybe there may be a window now where markets could open it up a little bit in
terms of financing, but the risk is still broadly speaking that if there is still uncertainty about what is coming and what might the implications be. And even when these deals begin to come out, we're going back to the level of tariffs that were in place up until here now, a few hours ago, in particular against a lot of different countries that are the major trading partners such as Canada,
Mexico and Europe. So you're right, uncertainty is still elevated, but let's just agree that it's significantly lower than what it was before. So I still think that overall, this cataclysmic risk of recession in the very short term is no longer the case. Well, how are our financial conditions
and I know that that's probably a question that changes depending on what day of the week I ask, but we came into today where we saw a huge amount of foreign selling of US debt, a huge amount of foreign selling of the dollar. And it was raising a lot of concerns about liquidity or the lack
thereof that we've been seeing in the fixed income and FX markets and the potential for another blow up akin to what we saw in that base in that carry trade blow up in August of last year. Is that still a risk? That's a very important question, Romaine, because exactly if you look at the rates reaction
after this 90 day delay come out, you saw that short rates have gone up a lot, but sorry, short rates have come down a lot, but long rates have not moved that much. So in that sense, it is a very significant development that there are some important differences across the yield curve
in terms of how markets have responded. So you're right, the change that we have seen in financial markets, especially this unique feature in the last few days where this stock market was going down and exactly as you're highlighting interest rates were going up, that is something that of
course has created a lot of attention to why was it the case that financial markets suddenly saw what looked like force selling where someone was forced to sell long term treasuries. And exactly as you're saying, watching what the dollar is doing is particularly critical, namely to watch whether is this foreign and selling, is this domestic investor selling. So now,
markets will settle down now for the rest of today at probably levels around where we are at the moment, but watching exactly what is the response from foreigners and from domestic investors will become very important. Yeah, and like you said, the move is really in the two year today, the back end not moving that much necessarily on this news. Hey, Torsten, last question.
Did the markets win? Well, so of course, as usual, depends on what side you are on in the market, but I do think at least that it must be a huge sigh of relief in markets at the moment. At least it looks like now we have more steady pace of negotiations coming. You could hope that there
will begin to be some negotiations with Canada and Mexico first so that that could be settled, and then other parts of the world will come subsequently. So the more clarity there is in markets about what is the sequencing, what does it look like when deals come out. I think that that will be most helpful for markets in terms of some of the fucking is that we've been going
through here more recently, beginning to clear. Torsten Slochee, the economist over at Apollo, as we keep an eye on the broader markets, not right around near fresh session highs and some of the biggest gainers today in the S&P 500 airlines. That includes Delta up more than 20% after posting
and earning support that well, not great. And of course, guidance that was also pulled, but a lot of folks did find some encouraging statements out of the CEO. Stephen Trent joins us right now, equity analyst and managing director over at City as a buy rating on Delta and a price
target of 7200. And Stephen, we should point out this stock was already rallying even before the Trump tariff comments. It was up like 8% and then got a nice boost after that up to a 20 plus percent. What was your reaction to the earnings report? And more importantly, what ad bashing had to say about the business? Why did we see such a positive reaction?
Yeah, and thank you for having me on. So I think the earnings report, all things considered, was pretty good. We saw, for example, the booking curve showing some strength after you did have a dip on the Liberation Day announcement. And with the exception of the domestic main cabin,
the verticals overall look pretty good. International strong, strong, co-branded card remuneration. And I think that the street had some rightful sympathy for the suspension of the guidance, given the great lack of uncertainty. Now a little bit better, maybe.
I was going to ask, would their call have been different if we had gotten this announcement before their earnings call? I'm not necessarily sure it would have been different per se. I think perhaps the early reaction and the early price action could have been even stronger.
But I think we moved down 90 days from now and what happens. That's still a little bit up in the air of no pun intended. I also think that when one looks at the asset price reaction today, we're probably going to see some consumer reaction with a delay. So when we look at sort of the
broad picture, I'm not 100% convinced that domestic main cabin is suddenly going to boom. But they've been doing a very good job on all the other verticals. And that's been enough to move the business forward. So this sounds like it's more about good management execution rather than a
良好的營運環境。絕對是。我認為這是達美航空執行得非常好的表現。
32:18
good operating environment. Absolutely. I think this is really good execution on Delta's part.
良好的營運環境。絕對是。我認為這是達美航空執行得非常好的表現。
32:25
And it's certainly not their fault we've had all this uncertainty with respect to policy coming out of Washington, which does create some difficulties in consumers trying to plan discretionary spending and companies trying to plan investments for the year.
But they've done everything they can. And I think they've done a really good job.
但他們已經盡了全力。我認為他們做得非常好。
32:43
Do you have optimism about the other US airlines carriers when they report?
你對其他美國航空公司的財報是否感到樂觀？
32:47
So we're constructive on the network airlines. And I think if you look at the lower socioeconomic strata, that segment's been under pressure. I'm not necessarily sure that comes off. But I think if you're a network airline looking at the posity of new equipment per capita, there's ability to
put that into price. And if you're a discount airline, it's a little tougher road. All right, thank you very much. We appreciate Stephen Trent, equity analyst and managing director over at Citi. All right, let's get more insight now into the bond market as you have equities fly and you have the front end yields just popping as well. Stephen Lately is a global co-head of
iShares fixed income ETFs over at BlackRock. What a day to have you join us. What has volume, what has movement been like in the past hour and a half? It's been pretty incredible. You guys have seen the the whipsaw and equities. And then we also had a bit of that on the on the curve to
particularly at the back end. So we had some retracement of yields in the back end. You know, we're still elevated kind of in the front in the belly. But it has been it's been a quite a volatile day. And I would say in general, you know, the week has been has been something else. And we've
seen very, very powerful volumes on the back of this record setting volumes in Bond ETFs in particular. Well, prior to today, I mean, where was the money going or where was it maybe not going? Well, I think the trend has actually been fairly up in quality. So, you know,
this year, we've taken in around 30 billion, 31 billion in the US and iShares Bond ETFs.
今年，我們在美國和iShares債券ETF中吸收了約300億、310億美元。
34:22
Over half that's been in treasuries. And the majority of that has actually been in the very front end of the curve S-G-O-V, which is our T-bill fund. So there's been a lot of flow inequality. The second, you know, I think most popular category would be multi-sector investment grade and just pure corporate investment grade. So it's it's been it's been enough in quality
trade. Well, speaking of that, we had started to see the high yield and investment grade market really the spreads really start to widen out and move. Yes. Clearly, that's been related a little bit in the last hour and a half. What have you noticed in terms of flows and sort of risk on risk aversion? Yes. So we did obviously see a lot of spread widening and high yield the
last few days. I mean, I think we were at about 125 basis points, which is a lot about 25 in investment grade and some of that's were traced today. We did see high yield outflows in ETFs.
Investment grade is a little more mixed, but but probably you'll see some of that snap back after after this reprieve. I am curious. There was a bit was a lot of talk, particularly during the last few days where we saw this huge uproar in markets that a lot of investors, particularly on the retail side, were actually utilizing ETFs more so than they were utilizing any
other instruments, whether it was single stock or indexes or anything else. Do you think that that is sort of rat a ratification of your job? Congratulations. But more importantly, just a ratification of the structural shifts in this market. And that is something going forward.
We should also look to maybe a little bit closer to four signals going forward. Well, Romaine, I think that's that's exactly it. I think it's you're and it's not only retail. So what we've noticed, we saw this during March 2020 as well. Even in the treasury market, right, the most liquid in market in the world, you're seeing institutional investors trade bond ETFs for risk
management. So TLT as an example, prior record was during 2020 was around $13 billion in single day, just traded $10 billion the other day. Each YG or high yield fund set an all time record on Monday.
It was around $14.4 billion. That represented actually about 60% of the entire over-the-counter volume in the high yield market, which is an incredible stat. And it just goes to sort of show just how much these products have become ingrained into the markets, particularly in credit.
Before I let you go, have you noticed anything, any signs of liquidity stress or anything in the treasury market that we need to be worried about here or thinking about? Well, there was obviously a lot of discussion around the back end of the curve and swap spreads and all of that.
I don't think we particularly saw a lot of funding stress. And again, in treasury ETFs, they were functioning very, very well, high volume, tight spreads. So it seems to have held up very well. Yeah. And I just want to point out too, I mean, that on your record, we saw on TLT the other day. And we should also point out Monday, we did see record volumes right now,
looking at volumes on TLT. Looks like we're going to surpass that record on a volume basis today.
看看 TLT 的交易量。看來我們今天的交易量將超過歷史紀錄。
37:07
Stephen Leiply, global co-head of iShares, fixed income ETFs. Over at Black Rock, as we keep it moving towards the market close, setting up for what could be one of the more monumental closes in the history of this market, certainly one of the biggest turnarounds.
史蒂芬·萊普利，iShares 全球共同主管，固定收益 ETF。在 Black Rock，隨著我們逐步接近市場收盤，正在迎來這個市場歷史上最具里程碑意義的收盤之一，絕對是最大的反彈之一。
37:20
Mark Newton is managing director and global head of technical strategy at Funstrap Global Advisors. And he joins us right now. And Mark, of course, there were a lot of technical levels breached over the last few days that set up the possibility for this sort of a snapback that we're seeing today. Did you expect it to be this strong?
馬克·牛頓是 Funstrap Global Advisors 的董事總經理兼全球技術策略主管。他現在加入我們。馬克，當然，在過去幾天裡，許多技術水平被突破，為我們今天看到的這種強勁反彈奠定了基礎。你有預料到會這麼強勁嗎？
37:39
No, I don't think anybody expected it to be that strong remain. Thanks for having me back here.
沒有，我想沒有人預料到會這麼強勁。謝謝你再次邀請我。
37:45
Look, 4,800 was a very key level for the S&P. That is 50% of the entire move up since 2022.
And just in the last few days, we had seen real evidence of not only breath being washed out, but substantially lower conditions in terms of momentum being quite oversold as oversold as we've been in years. And to follow that with a move of this magnitude
off the lows, we have about a 30 to one ratio right now of volume to the upside. That is extraordinary.
從低點反彈，我們現在的漲幅與跌幅交易量比約為 30 比 1。這是非常罕見的。
38:13
And so, you know, we also see, obviously, some comfort being seen also in the basis trade and those spreads coming in a little bit after having been tightening earlier in the morning. So, honestly, I think the basis trade very well could have forced Trump's hand. And I don't think it's
wrong to think that based on what's happened just in recent days with yields. But the, you know, we certainly had the conditions in place towards thinking that a low should be near.
基於最近幾天收益率的變化。但是，我們當然有條件認為底部可能接近。
38:42
I think today is the first step of that process. I can say pretty confidently, I think red has made a bottom as to whether equities pull back, you know, I'm unclear.
It's always tough to buy a 10% move up when trends and momentum are so sharply down.
在趨勢和動能如此急劇下降的情況下，買入 10% 的漲幅總是很困難。
38:56
But I'm pretty confident that we're in a bottoming process here.
但我相當有信心，我們正處於一個觸底的過程中。
38:59
Okay, because this is my question. Is this a dead cat bounce? Are we still going to be in a downtrend, right? It might remove recession risk, but there's still a lot of uncertainty.
What do you have to see to get confidence in the uptrend?
你需要看到什麼才能對上漲趨勢有信心？
39:10
Well, I think we saw several measures of fear turning into capitulation just this past week.
好的，我認為我們在上週看到恐懼轉變為投降的幾個跡象。
39:15
I mean, yesterday, we saw the arms index hit a 3.43. That is extraordinarily rare. We saw almost all the volume to the downside. Normally, that does happen right near bottoms. We saw the equity put the call just back on the 3rd of April at 1.03. Those are classic measures that normally
happen to suggest that, you know, this move is getting washed out. Even in the recent days, evidence of tariffs, you know, not really affecting the market as dramatically were apparent with almost a 10% move off the bottom just this past Monday and then the backing and filling.
So what do I need to see to be confident? I think that takes time, obviously, when momentum breadth and trends are so sharply negative, it's tough to buy the bottom. But honestly, you know, there are some things in place that suggest markets should bottom in April.
Cycles, sentiment, seasonality, momentum, breadth, all those are giving good signs as well as technology to that matter. Tech on a relative basis, the S&P has pulled back and hit long-term uptrends.
The MAG 7 is having one of its best days today that it's had in the last couple of years.
MAG 7 今天正在經歷過去幾年來最好的一天之一。
40:17
I think that is extraordinary. For me, that gives me some confidence at a time when tech is much more reasonable right now in terms of valuation and still the largest profit center for the S&P this year at about 25%. But there were some people that were looking at the drop in valuation. They're at least dropping multiples because of the sell-off and saying,
look, if you go by historical standards, we're nowhere near that sort of Nadir that you would typically look to as a sign of capitulation. Assuming that we did skirt that Nadir, what gives you the confidence mark that this rally that we get today to Alex's point can indeed persist? I would say a couple of things, Romaine. One is just the breadth and the volume
is so strong to the upside after evidence of technical capitulation in recent days that gives me some initial confidence. The S&P getting over 5,500. That's really the big sign now on the upside that every technician is going to be looking at. Getting back above that
will give you pretty good confidence that we can get back to new highs. I'm unable to say that just yet, of course, and I think that any bounce in the weeks and or months to come really has to be analyzed for evidence of participation, structure. All those are important in terms of
what kind of a bounce we see. There's evidence that there was going to be a low as to how we rally now. That's the next question in the weeks and the months to come.
Hey, Mark, before I let you go, how do you look at the long end of the bond market? I mean, we're only down two basis points on the 30-year despite being up 20 on the two-year.
Yeah, we've seen a remarkable steepening in that curve, obviously, in the last couple months.
是的，我們看到收益率曲線在過去幾個月明顯陡峭化。
41:49
We broke through the zero line late last year, and that's just continued. The move over 42 basis points this week caused a real acceleration higher. And so, tough to say that we're going to see a severe flattening just yet, I think the bond market's going to prove a lot
choppier in the months to come. I don't mind being long treasuries after one of the largest backing up in yield on a three-day basis of we've seen. I think since 1982 and the 30-year, almost a 50 basis point move. So if anything, if investors are so worried that the market hasn't bottomed yet, treasuries to me make excellent sense. My cycles actually go down in yields
between, really, April and later this summer. So I still think you can make money in treasuries, but I would much prefer equities on a 12-month basis given a deterioration we've seen.
好的，謝謝，馬克。非常感謝。馬克·牛頓，Fun Strat Global Advisors的全球技術策略主管。比爾·格羅斯不同意。他說，你想擁有一個高波動性的美國股票，其價格取決於POTUS是否有好的權利？讓我們回到經濟。這意味著什麼，RBC首席經濟學家弗朗西斯·唐納德
42:35
All right, thanks, Mark. Really appreciate it. Mark Newton, managing director of Global Head of Technical Strategy at Fun Strat Global Advisors. Bill Gross disagrees. He says, do you want to own a highly volatile US stocks whose price depends on whether POTUS has a good right? Let's get back to the economy. What this means, RBC chief economist Francis Donald
現在與我們在演播室。非常感謝你來。我們非常感謝。
42:54
is here with us in studio. Thank you so much for being here. We really appreciate it.
Busy day. Lots to talk about. Busy day. Did you change your, has your call changed at all for the US economy in the last two hours? Well, we were actually in the process of putting out our next round of forecasts, but the good news is we haven't really believed in point forecasts in this type of environment. We've been focused on scenarios. So we do have scenarios that look
且暫時不談中國的關稅，仍然是對美國經濟增長的實質性下調。
43:16
at, for example, 10% average tariff rate for the United States. And those ones are, it's not really a big surprise, less severe than a 20% average tariff rate, which is where we were just a few days ago. But I have to say, it's not like we're all in the clear. Even 10% tariffs,
Doesn't quite fit the definition of a recession, but there's a lot of elements of the story that we're still in play, and we're going to have to crunch those numbers. Weighing on me at the same time is a 90 day pause is not an eradication. And we still have this uncertainty tax weighing on a lot of American businesses and households. And globally, we know this,
Canadians have been dealing this for two months. 90 day pause also means that all of those global training partners are also under the weight of uncertainty. So to me, last week, I thought America's cut off both its arms today. One arm. Well, okay. Fair enough. Good description. Great
to start with that. But it gets to this idea. You see the snapback in the market. Obviously, that does not necessarily translate to a snapback in business activity. Two things that jumped out of me. So obviously, you have the tariffs on China's are still there and higher than what they were.
這是全球經濟的30%，理論上不在川普談論的隊列中。
44:25
I mean, they represent something like 17% of our global economy. The European Union, at least right now, doesn't appear to be at the negotiating table. That's another 10 to 15% of the global economy.
That's 30% of the global economy that in theory is not in the queue that Trump talks about.
這是全球經濟的30%，理論上不在川普談論的隊列中。
44:38
Yeah, it's great that Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand are lining up. Are those countries going to move the needle? Should they actually strike a deal? Well, details matter a lot here. So the team is, as we speak, crunching those numbers, running more scenarios around it. But what really struck out to me in the last couple of hours is you may remember, we were told that those large
So believe it or not, my set of scenarios and circumstances is a little bit more narrow now than it was before. So markets are a second derivative type beast. I'm a second derivative type gal.
I now know that the available scenarios are lower, and that makes things just a little bit easier at the margin for economists, but also for markets. Let's go to the floor part for a second. That 10% average tariff rate. Is that worse for inflation or worse for growth? Inflation. All the tariff
scenarios that we run, they bring inflation up and not just temporarily. So we hear this term transitory applied to inflation with respect to tariffs. Hey, you see the price trump up, but then the year over year, it declines over time. Our modeling tells us that inflation coming from
What's more transitory is actually the growth shock. Most of the scenarios we look at, they're two to three quarters of pain, and then you start to see some improvement on the other side. But there's no question from our mind, even a 10% across the board tariff with China on top of it is still upward pressure on inflation in the United States. And recession or no recession,
our biggest concern for the US right now is not growth. It's the inflation side of the picture, which is too hot, started too hot, it's only going to get hotter. Does this put us back, though, in that stagflation scenario? Because we were talking recession, I don't know, just a few hours ago. And now at least if that's removed, it doesn't sound like we're still going to see
Well, recession is two quarters of negative GDP rising the unemployment rate, a couple other boxes you have to tick. But markets, I don't think really care whether you're at plus point one or negative point one for GDP. 10% across the board tariffs is still going to be growth negative and can flirt around flat growth. Now, on top of that, we have tremendous amount of market
大力推動購買加拿大產品？這是否成為其他國家可能反應的模板？
46:56
volatility. That can weigh on sentiment. We also have this uncertainty that we know pauses investment decisions. So we're still flirting with a very difficult economic environment, whether or not you get to check the recession or no recession box is really apart from the idea that growth is going to slow materially from here on down. And 2025 is going to be a hard
year for GDP. You think there's reputational damage to the United States? And I ask you, this is a Canadian and a Canadian economist for RBC. Well, what do we know? We know that now there's less certainty dealing with the United States and that there are global partners across the entire world that are going to have to reevaluate what that trading relationship can look like.
We've seen sentiment shifts, for example, Canadians. Why is the Canada story interesting? Because Canada was dealing with this back and forth, pause, no pause, coming down to one sort of agreement about two months earlier. And what did they see huge drop in travelers towards the United States?
Possibly. But there's clues. And while all this might feel very new to a lot of trading partners in the last week, as I said, Canada and Mexico, we've been dealing with this for a couple months.
So maybe, maybe there'll be stories that rhyme. Yeah, we heard that from Delta, that there's been less trade between Canada and the US in terms of travel. All right, thank you very much, Francis.
We really appreciate it. Francis Donald, RBC chief economist. Let's go to these markets, Romaine, because we have tech ripping. You have the Nasdaq 100 seeing the biggest gain since 2008, driven in part by the MAG 7. The superlatives just keep coming, whether you're looking at Apple or Nvidia or just the big captain. And it's hard to even sort of sack up the superlatives
because the superlatives are everywhere. But I would just want to go on an individual basis, and you talk about the rebound that we've been seeing in names. I thought the rebound in Apple was probably most significant because everyone said this was kind of the one stock that was really right at the center in a bad way of this trade war here. The China risk isn't removed.
It's still there. In fact, the China risk is probably higher, but you're seeing that stock ripped by 15% here on the day meta platforms up a similar amount. Tesla rallying about 22%.
And then all those bank stocks, remember, we get the bank earnings starting on Friday, although we did hear from Jamie Dimon speaking to Maria Bartiroma, or was he speaking to someone else? I don't know. But he gave some thoughts on the economy. And now he's going to have to show his cards on how the company performed last quarter. And more importantly, what it thinks
they're going to do in the quarter going forward. But those shares up eight and a half percent.
那些股票上漲了8.5%。
49:16
And you can't dismiss any short covering here. I was mentioning earlier that the spy, the SP, why the ETF, the tracks, the S&P has highest a short interest in about a year. And so cover that. There you go. The VIX went from a high on the day of around 58 down to a low right now of around 32. The bond market's been all over the place. You're seeing a yield higher on the short
end yield to lower on the longer end of the curve. And keep an eye on the dollar because that is a real barometer for how folks feel the Bloomberg dollar spot index still on a slide. Scott Croner joins us right now, US equity strategist and global head of ETF research over at city.
All right, Scott, we talk about a rebound that I guess is deserved given what the president took off the table. How much stock can you put in that in terms of seeing some persistence to this rally if not over the next 90 days, even beyond? Well, I think you can put some stock in it. I think,
you know, we've been looking for an off ramp to what was announced with Liberation Day. And so remember, the negative aspect of the 20% plus tariffs that kind of came out of Liberation Day was this view that there was no apparent path to negotiate. And so that defined your maximum
Now what's happened, you've begun to alleviate that. And yet remember that various components of the Mag 7 are down as much as, well, in Tesla's case, over 50% from 52 week highs, others down, you know, 20 to 35%. So the opportunity for these stocks to snap back is something that has been
in our playbook. We went overweight tech going into Q2 just a couple of weeks ago, led by an upgrade to software alongside semis. We had been underweight hardware, which was the nagging China concern on Apple that moves to the sidelines, but not completely for now. But what I would say
here is that the degree of the negativity, the valuation disconnect, the underlying AI-related spending tailwinds that are still at work, all make us of the view that this megacap growth, tech led bias, we think probably persists in the short term.
I am curious about the other end of the spectrum, Scott. We're seeing a pretty massive rally today in some of the more economically sensitive, sensitive sectors, Dow transports as a group up about 10%, the Russell up about nine as well, mid caps also up about eight or nine percent, Scott. Do you think there's hope there for some of those companies that really weren't directly
因此，斯科特，為了明確起見，看起來你在過去兩個小時內並沒有改變你的呼籲。
51:42
exposed to the trade and tariff risk, but maybe they were exposed to the potential domestic economic risk? Yeah. So the way the way we would talk about the playbook, we would kind of lean in with this growth bias. It's been our view because we haven't, to your earlier discussions, haven't
completely eliminated the economic concern that's been going on even before we got to last week's liberation date. That's kept the small cap part of the market at bay, right? And so I think we need to get a little bit further, probably the other side of the Q1 reporting period to get a little
bit more confidence that we're seeing a bottoming and fundamentals that we had not found yet anyway before we kind of come back to that part more aggressively. But clearly, any time you breathe the side relief on underlying economic activity, small caps going to feel that leverage. We still
feel like, you know, from a, from our perspective, is that playing this growth narrative, I think, where you still have very, very visible free cash flow generation component at work here, combined with secular tailwinds is probably still the best trade in the short term anyway.
So Scott, to be clear, it doesn't seem like you've changed your call at all in the last two hours.
所以Scott，說清楚，看起來你在過去兩小時內並沒有改變你的呼聲。
52:53
Correct. I mean, the playbook that we laid out going in, we were obviously pretty nervous about is as we went the liberation day, but we kind of stuck that stuck with this view that growth is defensive is a theme that you want to be on. We haven't completely eliminated that economic
value that might potentially be out there. It's the depth of it's probably a little bit less than it was. But yeah, our playbook is still pretty much intact. If we keep high tariffs on China, though, and vice versa, does that disrupt things? I mean, what you're talking about, Apple,
and that was really the poster child for trade issues between the U.S. and China, and that ripping higher today, even though those tariffs are still on. Yeah, I think Alex, I mean, it certainly does. But I think what the market's taken, it's, it's, it's cue from here is that, okay, great. You know, we've gone back with another round of tariffs on China, but,
you know, the messaging you heard from Secretary Vessin is that we got, we got the trade conversation where we wanted, and that's where we get countries to negotiate. And so I think the markets in looking at the Apple action today is presuming that, okay, great. It's going to take a little bit longer with
China, but some presumption that ultimately we'll get there. I am curious, though, Scott, too, morning, and as expected, the CEO there pulling guidance. We're heading into an early season
where these companies and executives are going to be peppered with questions about how they see the rest of the year. Even given what's transpired today, Scott, do you think they will be able to articulate some degree of guidance, even if it is a broad range? You know, Romaine, it's a good question. I think we've been prepared that there's going to be a combination of pulling guidance,
banding guidance, or being more firm on what you know and don't know around the outlook that would all come out in Q1, which we thought would lead to a, generally speaking, a negative revision bias.
I've not been a fan of eliminating guidance. I think there's so much uncertainty in the market right now that investors want to at least be able to identify sort of what a worst case might be.
我一直不贊成取消業績指引。我認為市場現在有太多不確定性，投資者至少希望能夠確定最壞情況可能是什麼。
55:01
We did the same thing in our own work. We put out a thought piece over the weekend that was a 4,700 on the S&P begins to price in what we think the full extent of tariffs would be.
And what that really is intended to do is to provide a framework from which you can work back as the news flow unfolds. So I still think net net, we're going to see a negative revision to numbers as we go through the Q1 reporting period. But I think we're probably going to see a little bit
more nuanced perspective on a C-suites given today's action. And I also just want to update our viewers here for one second. We are getting some additional headlines about the White House policy on tariffs. According to an administration official that Bloomberg reporters have spoken to, there is no change on the auto steel and aluminum tariffs and no change to Canada and Mexico tariffs.
That seems to dovetail with what Trump sort of alluded to himself a little while ago in his comments. But it gets to a broader point here, Scott, about how so much is still unresolved and you've kind of touched on this idea. I mean, we still have to get whatever this queue of countries lining up to negotiate through that negotiating process. We have to figure out what two of the
largest economies or at least economic blocks in China and the European Union are going to do as well. And then of course our own allies, Canada and Mexico. As you time this out here, Scott, is there some sense here that the markets won't be as forgiving if this drags on closer to that
90 day? We'll call it a deadline, if you will. So we've been concerned on a couple of fronts, right? And let's just kind of start from. Hey, Scott, I have to cut you off, Scott.
President Trump is now speaking once again, this time from the Oval Office. Let's take a listen.
川普總統現在再次發言，這次是在橢圓形辦公室。讓我們聽聽。
56:47
Thank you very much. Appreciate it. We just had a wonderful meeting with the greatest race car drivers in the world and some really spectacular people that won the Indy 500 for the last, I guess, for the last four years, the last two years. And Roger Pinsky is so incredible
and the Daytona winners and the Daytona 24-hour champion, so it was really great to see you and to see those cars, those cars are incredible. So there's a lot of winning out there and we're having a good day in the stock market, as you can see it, all-time record day, and hopefully
continues. I think it should. A country stronger than it's ever been. And somebody had to do that with, we had to take the medicine, we had to go through the operation, and that's what we've been through. And a lot of presidents would not have done it. No president would have done it, I think.
But it had to be done. And I just want to thank my team, this team here and lots of others, and Scott and Howard have been incredible. And for energy, there's nobody like this man. And for the roads and highways, boy, you've done well, Sean. So we appreciate it. Very much appreciated.
And we could. Well, let's see. We're starting a lot of the executive orders and some ambassadors that have been approved. And we're going to start that process right now.
我們可以。讓我們看看。我們正在開始很多行政命令和一些已經批准的大使。我們將立即開始這個過程。
58:09
We're honored to have Gretchen Whitler from Michigan, a great state of Michigan.
我們很榮幸能有來自密歇根州的Gretchen Whitler，密歇根是一個偉大的州。
58:15
And she's been – she's really done an excellent job. I'm a very good person.
她一直表現得非常出色。我是一個很好的人。
58:20
And we're working on the self-reges, as you know, the air base. We're trying to get the air base open, keep it open. I think Gretchen, if you're there, and Matt Hall, and Speaker of the House of Michigan, and he's been fantastic as the Speaker, I appreciate it.
I did. And you know me, Speaker. So thank you, Mr. President.
我做到了。你也認識我，發言人。所以謝謝你，總統先生。
58:46
And Gretchen, I think everybody knows. So we're working on that very hard. And I think it'll be – I think we'll come home with a winner for Michigan, okay?
Just look with the Secretary of Defense. Sometimes we go to the Secretary of War. It used to be called the Secretary of War. They changed it when we became a little bit politically correct.
看看國防部長。有時候我們去找戰爭部長。以前叫做戰爭部長。當我們變得有點政治正確時，他們改了名字。
59:05
But I think we're in great shape. We're going to be in great shape. So thank you very much for being here. Thank you very much, Matt. Congratulations. Great job.
但我想我們狀況很好。我們會處於很好的狀況。所以非常感謝你來這裡。非常感謝你，馬特。恭喜。做得很好。
59:14
So we'll start with the first orders. And I think we have one for a man named Mike Huckabee.
所以我們將從第一批命令開始。我想我們有一個給一個叫麥克·哈克比的人。
59:20
Does anyone know Mike Huckabee? It's going to be a great ambassador to Israel.
有誰認識麥克·哈克比嗎？他將成為以色列的偉大大使。
59:27
And they're thrilled to have him, then I can tell you. Go ahead.
他們很高興有他，我可以告訴你。繼續。
59:30
Yes, sir. So the Senate confirmed Governor Huckabee to be your next ambassador to Israel earlier today. That's his commission as ambassador. And then we also have a trans – a trans-middle letter to the President of Israel requesting that he accept Governor Huckabee's – excuse me,
Ambassador Huckabee's credentials. He's going to be fantastic. He's going to bring home the bacon.
哈克比大使的證書。他將會很出色。他會帶回豐碩的成果。
59:56
And then there's – you know, bacon isn't too big an issue.
然後——你知道，豐碩的成果不是什麼大問題。
59:58
Yeah. And you're listening right now to President Donald Trump signing executive orders in the White House. Of course, everyone right now focused less on those executive orders and more on what he had to say a little bit earlier today, a 90-day pause on some of those most extreme of the reciprocal tariffs or teleulatory tariffs, if you will,
with, of course, one big caveat. And that is China. That's set off a massive rally in the markets on today that will be full of superlatives. Romaine Bostakir alongside Alex Steele, Scarlett Boo joining us as well as she does every day at this time. And Scott Croner, Ed City, still with us. We'll get to Scott in just one second, guys. But we have to talk about
the numbers on the screen. A Dow Jones industrial average rallying 3,000 points or 8% on the day.
螢幕上的數字。道瓊斯工業平均指數當天上漲3,000點或8%。
1:00:43
An S&P 500 up about 474 points or 9.5%. That's the biggest percentage gain for the S&P going back to October of 2008. And that point swing from peak to trough is the widest on record. The NASDAQ composite up about 1,800 points or 12% on the day, biggest one-day gain going back to 2001.
And the Russell 2000 also rallying 150 plus points or 9% here on the day.
羅素2000指數當天也上漲了150多點或9%。
1:01:09
Yep. And taking a look here at the VIX, guys. This is an historic move in the VIX, a record move as we as we move through the day, Scarlett, with tech just crushing it, outperforming to take a look at those MAG-7. You know what strikes me is the indiscriminate find that you're seeing take place. FXI, the ETF that tracks Chinese stocks, gaining EWC,
the ETF that tracks Canada, EWW, the ETF that tracks Mexico, even though the tariffs remain on those countries. I want to ask you what our pie chart looks like today, because I assume it's all green scarlet. But I was going through all of the different sectors, not just the main S&P sectors, but all of the individual sort of sub-sectors here. And you're looking at monster moves,
transports up 10% here on the day. Bank stocks, when you look at the KVW bank index, up about 9% on the day, software application software companies, that's about 8 to 9% as well.
Oil companies, Alex's favorite, up about 11. I could go on and on, but there was really nothing, at least on a sector, a sub-sector basis, group basis, that was down in any meaningful way.
Yeah, to your point, you have the steel companies as well, also gaining 10% as a group, even though we know that some of those sectoral tariffs do remain. So it's, again, a matter of indiscriminate buying that we're seeing take place. Even Johnson & Johnson, which had been down for most of the
afternoon, has moved to the green side up by two thirds of 1%. It's definitely been a defensive name over the last couple of days, outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.
And talking about that record move from MAG7, Apple and video, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, all jump at least 10% when I kiss on yields here, guys, because we also have very big move in the two year. At one point, it was 30 basis point swings, right? We haven't seen that since 2022. So interesting, though, is the back end did a whole lot of nothing. And that was where we saw
all the signs of stress over the last three trading days. It'll be interesting to see what transpires over the next 48 hours, of course, with earnings, another big treasury sale and some economic data on the inflation front here that maybe could reshape the market narrative. Scott Cronert still with us over at City. Scott, thanks for being patient. As we walk through these numbers,
as we listen to the president, definitely some optimism right now on this day with regards to where this market can go. But we'd be remiss if not pointing out we're still well off the highs that we had earlier this year above 6,000. And I do wonder if you see a scenario,
a bull case, best case scenario, where we could get back up to those 6,100 levels on the S&P 500 this year. I mean, I think the positioning dynamic can work in your favor in that regard.
我認為這有點更像是一個長期目標，但仍然肯定在視線範圍內。
1:03:33
I think it becomes a little bit more of a long shot, but still certainly in the line of sight.
What I would say here is just a reminder, right? A lot of times with policy, it's not the one of the policies, the how of the policy. And I think what was so disconcerting for investors was the nature by which we saw the Liberation Day announcement hit. It just sapped the conviction level and
the confidence that we knew what we were discounting from the fundamental perspective. And that has led to this under positioning, negative positioning and so forth. So as you come out the other side of that, you got to expect some relief, but we're still going to be looking at a tariff regime that's probably going to have some impact on fundamentals, which at the margin is going to make
it harder to get back to the earnings growth expectations and the valuation for the market that was in place last time we were 6,100. So directionally, yeah, I don't doubt that we can't get there, but there are still some hurdles that we're going to need to contend with more
structurally from a fundamental perspective. Also, Scott, I can't help but notice the financial conditions have tightened considerably over the last couple of days. We don't have the final numbers from today's trade yet, but given that financial conditions are much tighter than they are, than they were a week ago, how does that make things more difficult for companies, particularly
those that are highly indebted? I think we got a little bit of time here for that to play out and potentially reverse a little bit off of today's action. I think we've been watching the backup and spreads, for example, in the high yield market, and it's a little bit disconcerting to watch that, but it also makes perfect sense as we go down or the tariff path that we had been on
因此，我認為在關稅討論中，我們關注的第一點是直接影響基本面，第二點是可能對經濟狀況產生的殘留效應。
1:05:09
might to a certain degree still be on. So I think one of the things that we're watching for here in terms of the tariff discussion, first order impacts, directly how impact fundamentals, second order impacts, the residual effect that might have an economic condition.
我認為基本面可能比通脹預期更重要。
1:05:25
And I'd argue that the fundamentals are probably more important right now than inflation expectations.
我們可以單獨討論這一點。第三點是意想不到的後果。
1:05:30
We can discuss that separately. Then the third order is unintended consequences.
And that's where you begin to see individual companies run into, let's call it an existential issue as a function of the changing global landscape here. But I think it's going to be a little bit more segmented, if you will, than a broader, bigger issue that would align with the concern
on financial conditions. Hey, Scott, just take a look at Delta for a second. I mean, we've seen the biggest jump in Delta since 2008. And I'm just wondering, what are we learning about how investors are going to respond to earnings season? You pull guidance, your first quarter is pretty
Well, it just again, it kind of goes back to this discussion on looking at how stocks have been acting going into the current situation. And we pointed this out, the index, you know, while back was down 10%, but your mag seven down 20%, the airlines were down as much as 50%, right?
還是市場在基本面情況下定價的緩解。
1:06:33
So a lot of negativity getting priced in. And you know, the uncertainty breeds the negativity and breeds the selling. And anything that can provide a release valve to that, this is where you're going to get these significant moves to the upside, whether it's short covering
or just a relief in terms of how the markets are pricing in the fundamental circumstance.
或者只是在市場對基本面情況的定價上得到一些緩解。
1:06:54
Again, I'm not a big advocate of suspending guidance. I'd rather band where you think you're going to live so that gives investors something better to manage and assess off of. But I think it just kind of goes to show on how far the rubber band had been stretched on the downside
over the past couple of months. I mean, if we assume for a second, Scott, that there is a little bit of life to this rally, is this going to be one of those stock pickers rallies where you really have to be very selective? Or is this going to be that broad base kind of rising tide lifts all boats where you can just buy an index or ETF and sit back and enjoy the ride?
Yeah. So look, I think the bigger picture remain is that we're going down much more of a stock picking lens. I think even though we're seeing the snap back in the MAG 7, the mega cap growth tech comm services component, which I'm completely a buyer of, I think that makes sense for a variety of reasons. I do think I do think that we're
not going to get back to the Goldilocks scenario that was in place beginning of the years. I mentioned a couple of minutes ago. That's going to include the big tech component. So I do think what happens here is you continue to differentiate within the MAG 7, you continue to differentiate from
a sector perspective. And then I do think as we go further into the Q1 reporting period, I think the stage is still set for a different approach to stock selection. Yesterday, I would have told you, let's find those companies that you always wanted to buy that seemed too expensive
and now they're not. I still think we're going to be looking at a winner and loser bias in terms of how this plays out as we continue to navigate down a tariff path that's still out there. Maybe not as onerous as it was previously, but it hasn't completely gone away yet.
Scott, always great insights and really appreciate just sticking with us here on a really consequential day. One of the best in the business there is Scott Cronard over at City on a monumental a day. Our coverage continues here on the close as we push ahead to maybe what keeps this rally
going. And it was a historic rally by every measure. Depending on what index you picked, it was either, well, the best day since the pandemic, the best day since the financial crisis, in some cases, even the best day prior to that. An S&P 500 rally and nine and a half percent on the day, something, well, you don't see every day. The biggest point gain on the S&P, biggest point
swing, I should say, on the S&P in history and on a percentage basis from peak to trough, that would be the biggest point swing, percentage point swing going back at least to the beginning of the global financial crisis, the NASDAQ up 12% on the day. And when you look at it on the sector basis, Scarlett, take a look at that. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, no index has been beaten
up more than that, a rally today of 19%. Yeah, pretty incredible breath here when it comes to just how many stocks are gaining. I was looking at the most actively traded stocks by value.
Of the top 100, there was only one that declined, and that was CME by about a third of 1%.
在前100名中，只有一隻股票下跌，那就是CME，下跌約0.33%。
1:09:45
I was taking a look at some individual movers. J&J had been lagging the market all day long, and it does close higher, but not by very much. Remember, President Trump has vowed to impose major tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and J&J and some of those other healthcare names have out performed the market by at least eight and a half percentage points so far this year.
For the most part, you saw indiscriminate buying, whether it was the ETF tied to Chinese stocks, the ETF tied to Mexican stocks. You could see the ETF tied to Canada stocks. Oh, no, that's excellent. That's down for 10% of 1%. The ETF tied to Canada stocks actually closing up as well.
Apple's really interesting, too, because even though Trump is going to keep the tariffs on China, in fact, raising it to 125%, he did also say he will take a look at exempting some U.S. companies, and remain, as you know, Tim Cook famously negotiated an exemption for Apple in
the first administration. Yeah, and that's really, does that become market risk, though, Scarlett? Because we talk about a 90-day runway here, and now the question is, who has the clout to actually negotiate on something favorable? Maybe Tim Cook might have an edge there.
All right. Well, we'll see how that all plays out, and of course, everyone else is watching as well. In the meantime, we want to bring in our next guest, Jay Polosky, is CIO at TpW Investment Management. Jay, I hope your day has been okay for you with all this back and forth.
I'm curious that once we get past this tariff noise, what still stands out to you as things that we need to address that have fundamentally changed because of the drama over the last five, six days? Thanks, Scarlett. Yes, great to be on with Sea of Green as opposed to Sea of Red, right?
Thank goodness for independent financial markets, which I believe bounded and forced the president and his team to reverse themselves pretty much across the board. I mean, you can talk about a 90-day pause in a 10% tariff that remains intact, but the reciprocal tariff, which was really the
And as far as the things that you have to think about that have changed fundamentally, look, I think this has been an immense own goal by the US administration. We have basically proven ourselves to be not good partners, not good business partners. And I think that was
reflected in the Treasury market and reflected in the dollar. And so for us, we have been and continue to be of the view that we are early in a secular change of leadership away from US equities, which have been the leader since the bottom in 09 to the rest of the world,
with the rest of the world having better policy mix, better execution, as well as cheaper markets and several other multiple or several other factors that we can talk about. And the big thing for us here is the dollar. We think we're early in the beginning of a capital repatriation
out of the United States, back to Europe, back to Asia, back to the markets.
回流到歐洲、亞洲和其他市場。
1:12:50
Well, that's what I'm curious about, Jay, because there's been a lot of talk as to sort of what caused Trump to sort of make this pivot. And I know we can't get into outside his head.
But when you look at all of the selling that you saw in the Treasury space, we seem to be attributed to foreign buyers or foreign sellers for that matter, but also more importantly, the sell-off that we had seen in the dollar, which still continued, despite the rally that we saw in the market. Is that pressure coming from overseas? Is that what we're seeing?
Well, it's a key point, Roman, to note that the dollar was the one thing that didn't rally, right, really? Yeah. And I think that's because we have damaged our credibility.
And our story is not as good. We still have the uncertainty around tariffs. Clearly, we're going to grow less than we were a week ago before Liberation Day.
我們的故事不再那麼吸引人。我們仍然面臨關稅的不確定性。顯然，我們的增長將比解放日之前的一週要低。
1:13:37
And so the foreign investor base is aware that in Europe, their fiscal stimulus is much greater.
因此，外國投資者意識到，在歐洲，他們的財政刺激要大得多。
1:13:45
Their monetary policy, the ECB, is going to cut next week. China is focused on fiscal policy to stimulate its domestic demand profile. Here in the U.S., I think, and we've written about this from the beginning, all of this is in service of tax cuts. And I think that why I said the Treasury
was what forced Trump and team to back off is because we're going to switch the storyline to tax cuts. And the tax cuts are going to include a big fiscal deficit. And there's no way you can argue and articulate and make a case for a bigger fiscal deficit if your Treasury market is in flux.
And so I think that is the factor that's turned the tide here, more so president to step aside.
因此，我認為這是導致局勢轉變的因素，更多的是總統退讓。
1:14:33
So the administration would argue that the tax cuts will be funded by the revenue generated by the tariffs, that it will balance out in the end. And it's in service to reordering the U.S.
因此，政府會爭辯說，減稅將由關稅產生的收入資助，最終會平衡。這是為了重新整頓美國
1:14:45
economy as a whole. Do you not see that happening at all where things pan out in a way that the tax cuts are additive to the U.S. economy? We just gave up the idea of revenue coming from tariffs. That idea is no longer valid as of whatever, 1.30 or 2 o'clock today.
So it's going to be a smaller number from tariffs. Some money will be generated. I've never believed that it goes from one to the other. It's a fig leaf, in my view. And Doge, too, was meant to cut spending to provide more room for a tax cut, because the basic bottom line here and why
we're so bullish, the rest of the world, is that the U.S. shot its fiscal bullet post COVID.
如此看好世界其他地區的原因是，美國在COVID後已經用盡了財政子彈。
1:15:28
And that led us to have the best growth, best corporate earnings, most highly valued stock market, most expensive currency in the world. That's now finished. Our budget deficit at 7% of GDP allows no room for fiscal stimulus. The rest of the world, Germany, China, budget debt is a
percent of GDP, 65%. They have the fiscal space. They're going to use it. Their economies are going to grow. Earnings going to grow. Stock market going to do better. So I think that president is going to be forced by the market to try and make a case for tax cuts that will be unfunded
for the most part. And I think that you need a compliant treasury market to even contemplate making that argument. And I think that's why we've made the change we see today.
我認為，你需要一個順從的國債市場，才能考慮提出這種論點。我認為這就是我們今天看到變化的原因。
1:16:15
So Jay, kind of wrap this up for us here. This gets to a point now where we talk about whether you want to be invested in this market or I guess maybe the better question is how you would want to be invested in this market based on what you just said. Is that actually making a case for stocks
or is that making a case to be more defensive? Well, we've been real clear again with our clients at TBW advisory. We want to sell U.S. rips. And so this is today a rip. We think you can probably look to get out of some positions and reallocate to the non-U.S. markets where we want to buy the
dips, which is what we've been saying for the last couple of weeks. And it's really quite straightforward, right? Better fiscal policy mix outside the U.S., cheaper markets outside the U.S., better earnings growth and completely under owned. And the markets are telling us this. S&P prior to today,
down 15% year to date, actually X U.S., so the rest of the world, down five. Scarlet was talking about FXI, the China ETF. It's actually flat year to date and is the only one of the major ETFs
that are above their 200-day moving average. So the U.S. has 7% or 5% or so to get back above its 200-day, which is around 5750. I think we chop around here, but to us, the much better story, cheaper, less risk, better upside, benefit of a weak dollar is the non-U.S. equity markets.
We like Europe. We like Japan. We like China. We like emerging markets. And we think Latin America could be starting to get interesting as well. All right, Jake, got to leave it there.
Jake Pulaski, founder and CIO over at TPW Investment Management on a day where we saw pretty much every sector get a strong bid. That included the MAG 7 having their best days since their inception as a group. And one of the main ETFs tracking AI stocks also having its best day as
well. A separate index, tracking Chinese tech stocks that rallied about 4.5% and maybe that becomes a backdrop for when Asian markets open tomorrow. Let's bring late to you into this conversation right now over at Alliance Bernstein. Joining us here in Studio 2. And
I am curious about this idea of sustainability of this rally. When we booked you, I had a whole other set of questions, by the way, for you, by the way. So bear with me as I ad lib.
But it gets to this idea of how much life you saw in that tech trade and whether what happened today maybe is additional fuel to that trade. Well, I think to Jake's point earlier, there has been a lot of capital flow in the marketplace. And then in my opinion,
U.S. still have some of the most attractive technology stocks in the world. We have the tech dominance and everything was on sale. So quality growth has been on sale and actually creates opportunities for long-term focused investors. And also in the midst of all this
back and forth about tariff, what the one thing that investors should bear in mind is while that really highlights the importance of selecting the right business model, which is great for active investors. Because at the end of the day, this highlights the question, who has pricing power? What is really defensive in this type of environment? So the companies that
actually have differentiated IP have spent and have invested and built a competitive mode that's hard to replicate or have strategic assets have strong balance sheep. Those become the real defensive stocks in this market. And I think some of these most innovative companies are fit
right into that category that have been really the evaluation have been tunneled. So I mean, some of the biggest holdings, at least in one of the main ETFs that you oversee. It's the Nvidia's and Metas. I think Alibaba's in there and a few others. So we're talking about proven winners in terms of profitability, in terms of revenue, and obviously in terms of cash flow.
Prior to today, did you have any concerns here about a potential slowdown in the growth of those names? I think, you know, when we look, what we are looking for long-term is really for sustainable growth. So above market growth. And then if you look, in terms of tech and innovation,
這已經成為所有行業在所有大陸的重要組成部分，坦率地說。
1:20:33
that's become such an important part of all industries across all continents, frankly.
So those companies, we believe, it's not just about growth. It's also about long-term margin, profit dollars. So it's not just revenue growth, but it's about profit pools. And we always thought the companies that shouldn't, even if they invest in the short term, that actually brings the long
term growth and long term profit. And those are the ones that we like. A lot of these companies that are included in your ETF has spent and invested a lot of money in building out their capabilities, especially when it comes to AI. Do they need to keep spending at that rate to continue to hold on to their advantage? It's very hard to forecast, you know, exactly how much
they would spend. But we think that, you know, in the long-term capital investments and spending R&D for growth companies generally actually pay off. But, you know, it does mean that, you know, as investors, we have to scrutinize and make sure that we agree with what they are doing.
But overall, we think the capital intensity will likely remain high because from their standpoint, if you look at a business owner, some of the largest hyperscalers in the market, it's as much as about being, have a defensive mode, right? They have to protect their existing business,
but it's also once in lifetime opportunity to get into each other's backyard and to come up with new product to compete with each other. So it's as much of that defensive move as an offensive move.
And that's why we think that capital intensity will likely remain high. Do we think the ebbs and flow from time to time? Sure. But overall, I think these are strategic investments and they will likely remain high. There are strategic investments, but there are also an add-on to their main
businesses. In the case of meta, it relies on advertising when it comes down to it. And Dave Lee of Bloomberg Opinion was writing about how with the tariffs and with the uncertainty, that part of the business could get hit. And as a result, meta has less money to plow back into spending on AI and building out that part of its business. Is that a risk for some of these
biggest names that their core business will slow down? There's always cyclical risk in that economic slowdown, but great business models are the reason that we say we have to select the right business model, the one with the best gross margin profile, with the best cashflow profile,
they will be able to withstand because when there's a slowdown, everybody sees the slowdown.
它們將能夠抵禦，因為當經濟放緩時，每個人都會看到放緩。
1:22:53
That's all relative. Yeah, so it's all about relative.
這都是相對的。是的，所以這都是相對的。
1:22:55
All right, Lee, I really appreciate it. Always insightful. One of the best in the business late, she's CIO for thematic innovation equities over at Alliance Bernstein. Join us here on a historic day in financial markets. The big question is, is it going to be a historic day for the economy? Let's bring in our next guest right now. Joining us right now around the desk
is Olu Sonola. He's head of US Economic Research over at Fitch. Olu, great to see you.
Olu Sonola。他是Fitch的美國經濟研究主管。Olu，很高興見到你。
1:23:20
Thanks for having me. I am curious here, recession risk taken off the table based on what we learned today. That's your view? I would say so. I think if the trade war is really all about China, that's a lot more manageable than a global trade war. Well, that was the big concern of heading
into this trade war, whatever you want to call it. This idea that it was on a country by country base is rather than something being a little bit more holistic. So how do you get 70 plus countries to line up and negotiate? We're still there though, right? I mean, this is basically just a 90-day reprieve. They're still going to have to queue up in theory. And at least for right now,
two of the largest economies, China and the European Union as a whole, aren't in that queue, at least based on what we know. Are you ready to remodel your economic forecast now? I think you don't have a choice you have to because China is about 50% of all imports. The EU is also about 15% of all
the lot. The reality is, though, it compared to, what, three hours ago, we're in a much better place. The concentration of the rate with China is a big one, right? We're talking 125%, right?
So you're still looking at an effective rate that's in the 20s. We were at 2.5% this time.
因此，你仍然看到一個有效的關稅率在20%左右。這次我們是2.5%。
1:24:44
You're talking about the overall effect of tariff rate. So if you just take that 125, it's just on China. That still puts us in the 20%. We're still at around 25%. Just on China alone, US effective rate, the contribution of China alone is almost 18%. And we were up at 20%.
Coming into today, right? Coming into today, we're about 25%. So the way it is still there, it's certainly a lot better. But we're not completely out of the woods.
If we zoom out a bit here, it's clear that we've averted a crisis for now.
如果我們稍微縮小一下範圍，顯然我們暫時避免了危機。
1:25:18
But what's the damage done from this past week? It's hard to quantify. We will not know that for quite some time, right? I think you cannot discount the damage from sentiments, the market swings, the damage. And when I say sentiments, I mean both on the consumer side and also the
business side. I've been much more concerned about the business side because businesses can turn things off and off. Turn things on and off very, very quickly. And they stopped investing.
企業方面。我更關注企業方面，因為企業可以非常快速地開關業務。他們停止了投資。
1:25:47
And I looked at contractions, economic contractions going back a long time. And what you realize is the contribution to those contractions, it's mostly on the business side. About 80% of it, outside of COVID, has mostly been purely because businesses stopped spending, and they stopped
hiring, and they started firing. So I'll be watching out for that. I'm hoping that we can have that full throw-tet reversal whereby you're basically back to status quo where businesses can do business.
One thing that strikes me is the damage to the US's reputation. The US is trading more and more like an emerging market than a developed market. The price action shows big swings multiple times a day, several times a day in a row, and it's happening for days at a time. So you have this
unpredictable policy that people now need to grapple with. And with Treasury yields spiking earlier in the day, there's a lot of talk that perhaps foreign buyers are backing out. They don't need to be in the so-called risk-free instruments when they look like there's a lot of risk attached to it. What has the damage done from that? I mean, does the US still need to be a AAA country or
should it be something less than? Actually, at Fitch, it's not a AAA country. So to speak.
是否應該低於某個水平？實際上，在惠譽，美國並不是一個AAA級國家。可以這麼說。
1:27:03
Right. Exactly. But I would say that when you think about the nature of the uncertainty, we've had pretty rough, we've had very rough, I would actually certainly very, very rough, couple of days, couple of weeks. If we settle where we are, yes, the total uncertainty is not
if we settle where we are, and we move on to other issues of the day, we move on to fiscal policy, we move on to things that will basically be beneficial, right? Issues that will be ultimately likely be beneficial. Maybe we'll look at the rear view mirror and say, okay, that was a rough one,
and maybe we're back on track. But I would clearly not throw out the window, the fact that the last couple of weeks may have done some lasting damage. Well, that's what I'm curious about, and maybe Scarlett didn't want to be as blunt about it. But the downgrade that we got on the US
wasn't because of what happened. It was because of this idea of chaos and disorder and uncertainty.
並不是因為發生了什麼。而是因為混亂、無序和不確定性的想法。
1:28:07
Aren't we in a worse place when it comes to uncertainty today than where we were back in 2011, 2012? I think you can say we are clearly, right? There is still a lot of dysfunction on the political side of things. It was one of the things that we cited. We also cited the trajectory
of debt. That has not improved. So compared to then, and now, you clearly can say that we are in a worse place. And the tax cuts won't change anything. The upcoming tax cuts that the Trump administration so intent on passing. I doubt that it will. All right. Alissa Nala head of US economic research
over at Fitch. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. All right. We're going to continue this conversation now and bring in Neuropamarau. She is assistant professor at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan. She's also a non-resident scholar at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. And Neuropamah, thank you so much for joining us. You
have made the point that even if they rolled back the tariffs, which they apparently have done for everyone except for the countries that have retaliated, you can't roll back the incredible uncertainty this has all created. Talk about the damage that this disruption has done to the US
economy. We've seen firms like Goldman Sachs pull back their recession forecast. They no longer see a recession in the cards, but that doesn't mean that it's going to be a smooth ride from here.
I mean, let's first, before we even get to the uncertainty, let's talk about where the tariff rates seem to be. We've had this 90-day pause, and I think the markets are very excited to hear about this. But at the same time, we're maintaining these tariffs with China. We're keeping
across the board tariffs at 10%. So this will probably average out to something in the realm of 12 to 14% tariffs on average. In 2024, the average US tariff rate was 2.5%. So we're still seeing a
quintupling of tariff rates. That's not going to be a non-event itself. Is it better than, you know, a 34% or 46% rate on Vietnam? Sure. But it's not going to be easy. I think of it as the tariffs
we're still imposing. It's like running a race with a parachute trailing behind you. As we see these retaliatory tariffs coming in, it's like we're now running into a headwind with that parachute.
So that's the rate as they actually are, right? Now comes the uncertainty.
這就是實際的關稅率，對嗎？現在來談不確定性。
1:30:35
Because I know the focus is on the actual tariff numbers themselves. And as you point out and as Olu pointed out, we're still way elevated than what we were even just, I don't know, three or four months ago. But what's the perception right now? Is the United States open for business? And I don't
mean just going to the White House and groveling for some sort of relief. But I mean, are foreign companies and nations going to be willing to invest in the United States given what's transpired over the last 11 or 12 weeks? I mean, it's been an incredibly chaotic policy environment,
right? We saw, you know, Mexico is going to have a 25% tariff. No, no, never mind. We won't. Oh, no, it's back. But most goods will be exempted. China is going to have a 20% tariff, not only 54, then it'll be 104. Now it's 125. We've seen so much policy change in such a brief
amount of time. I think it's hard for any business leader to look at the US economy and say, I know what this project, this factory, this investment, what it would cost me to build it, whether in the US or abroad, and what demand would look like for my product. I think in this environment,
it is very hard for businesses to make what we call irreversible investments. A lot of countries now are looking for some sort of alternative to the US. And look, we are the largest economy, the most consequential economy for a wide variety of reasons. There is no replacement, at least on a one to one basis. But that doesn't mean they can't sort of chip away around the edges.
Claudia Shinebaum, President of Mexico had a meeting today with her counterpart in Brazil to strengthen ties there. And she said something I thought was interesting. She said Mexico in good part sustains the US economy. I'm not sure I believe that, but I do think there is a perception
among Mexico, among China, and maybe to a smaller extent, Europe, that actually feel that there are contributions to the global economy, and more importantly to the US, are just as critical to our contributions to the US, to the rest of the world. Trade is about interdependence, right?
I know economists like myself are often seen as the dismal science. There's a few places where we actually think that we can grow more, right? We can have more from what we actually have, in that one of the ways is through innovation, right? When we create new products, we create new ways, we become more efficient. The other way is trade. Trade is a way to lean into each of our
advantages to create more for everyone, right? And I think what Ms. Shinebaum is saying, and what other leaders are saying is they're pointing to this interdependence. And the truth is, is that, you know, you can legislate, or how to re-legitate, you can dictate tariffs.
But you can't dictate how markets respond to tariffs, right? We've seen that in our own stock happen last time. We had tariffs on China. We saw trade moving to Vietnam, to Mexico.
Factories were built. Markets will react. What is the best way then to incentivize companies to move some of the high-value manufacturing back to the United States? Because clearly, adding tariffs onto imports was the way that the Trump administration has chosen to go,
even as it fiddles with the actual amount and takes them off or puts them back on.
即使他們不斷調整關稅金額，時而取消，時而恢復。
1:33:41
The end goal here is still to bring jobs back or create high-value jobs here.
最終目標仍然是將就業機會帶回或在美國創造高附加值的就業機會。
1:33:46
I think you hit the nail on the head when you said high-value jobs, right? Because we even see China trying to move away from low-value manufacturing. So we want to be focusing on those high-value industries. Across the board, tariffs is going to make production in the US more expensive. So that's a difficult way to do it. I think a 10% tariff on Vietnam is unlikely to
lead to shoes being made in the US as well. So we want to focus on high-value added industries.
導致鞋類在美國製造。因此，我們應該專注於高附加值產業。
1:34:12
We want to think about surgical tariffs, potentially, but most importantly, investing here in the United States. Some of these industries need infrastructure that we can't currently provide.
我們可以考慮針對性的關稅，但最重要的是在美國進行投資。這些產業需要我們目前無法提供的基礎設施。
1:34:22
We need a workforce that's trained and ready for these jobs. I think in truth, one of the most effective policies we could have pursued in this area was the Chips Act that we've actually seen the administration turn away from, right? Is widespread industrial policy a
good move for the United States? No, no. But if you're really interested in specific industries, bolstering them, it's encouraging investment. Well, it'd be interesting to see whether they follow through on that. Scott Besson, of course, asked about that earlier today, and he did seem to suggest they are willing to go down that road. A Neuropalma Rao is Assistant Professor
over at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan as our coverage continues, right here on Bloomberg. All right, joining us now for more just to recap the day and kind of get us set up for the following day is Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity and Quantitative Strategist over at Evercore ISI. Julian, a banner day here in the equity market and in the bond market with a big
turnaround for both, a little bit less so for the bond market, but we still do have yields higher at least at the short end of the curve. How sustainable is this recovery? How does this set us up for trading tomorrow and the following 89 days? So this is the way we need to think about this,
Scarlett. Coming into today, and if you think about it in within the context of our putting out sort of bull cases, base cases, bear cases, you know, we had 6,200 as our new bull case, 5,600 our base case, 4,500 our bear case and 3,100 our super bear case, recession,
you know, reasonably deep recession, multiple compression to around 15 times. What today has done is it's cut off the left tail outcome. Because what we learn is that in all likelihood,
whether numerically, this is the peak in trade uncertainty, or it isn't an obviously the map around what the effective tariff rate is still sort of a moving object. But investors perceive this to be the peak of trade uncertainty. And so in that respect, you know, the only place to go
in general is down in terms of that uncertainty. And then the other thing that we found out today is that, and we believe this all along, is that these actions really indicate that the Trump administration understands the, you know, the precariousness of the situation and has no
wish to precipitate a recession. So in that respect, as I say, you chop off the, you know, really adverse outcomes and really balance the risks in the market. In our view, you know, you're likely to have some backing and filling. But we think that
looking further down, you're likely to move higher.
往後看，你可能會進一步上漲。
1:37:08
You're likely to move higher. And of course, it may take some time because we're still waiting for more details to emerge. How does this set us up for what Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, said is his main priority now, which is getting those tax cuts done in the second half of the year.
Is that something that investors should be looking ahead to now, given that we might be past peak tariff uncertainty? Well, it's definitely focused. And I would suggest that, you know, there are many reasons to think about the bond market volatility. We've seen the last few days,
obviously, the narrative around the unattractiveness of U.S. assets relative to the rest of the world.
顯然，圍繞著美國資產相對於世界其他地區的吸引力不足的說法。
1:37:48
The bond basis trade having difficulties. All of those have a degree of validity.
債券基礎交易遇到困難。所有這些都有一定的合理性。
1:37:53
But what also potentially has a degree of validity is this idea that you're going to need the Republicans to come together and vote on this big, beautiful bill, which includes debt ceiling relief and raising the debt ceiling. And you've got a swath of Republicans who've never voted to
raise the debt ceiling. And in that respect, what you've done, and we've seen this in U.S.
提高債務上限。在這方面，你所做的，我們在美國
1:38:18
sovereign credit default swaps, is that they've ratcheted it up in recent days. So part of this instability in the bond market could be forecasting that these negotiations will be difficult. And to us, that's part of the narrative of this is not sort of an off to the races situation.
This is going to continue to be the type of three steps forward, two steps back, bull market that we envisioned at the start of the year. Only we had four steps back and, you know, maybe one step forward, but more balanced. But again, you know, it really does take taking off
the potential for a deep recession because we know policy is going to react is a positive.
消除深度衰退的可能性，因為我們知道政策將做出反應，這是一個積極的因素。
1:39:01
But there's still, I mean, we had a guest on earlier today, Julian, kind of used the analogy, a crude analogy, but basically the idea is that we've gone from basically chopping off both of our arms to just one, at least economically speaking. I am curious about the rebound in markets, the sustained rebound in markets, because we're still 11% down from the
all-time high on the S&P. What gets us there? Because it's got to be more than just passing a tax cut bill or a couple other favorable policies. There's got to be confidence put back into this market that those more pro market, pro business, pro economic policies are going to stick,
are going to be here to stay, and they're not going to be at risk of another snapback on tariff policy. You're absolutely right about that. And in that respect, and look, we all know that confidence is very difficult to rebuild. And obviously, look, we've been saying this for several
weeks, given the level of bearishness in the market in general, the third highest reading of bears only after the trough in 2009 and the trough of the Gulf War in 1990, both of which were generational buying opportunities, the degree of the rebound that we've seen on a reflex reaction
is not surprising. But to your point, we are going to have to rebuild this confidence, and it is not sort of a straight line. It is a process and given the amount of policy that needs to be legislated and thinking about other things aside from tariffs, Russian, Ukraine, Iran, and so on
and so forth. This is not going to be a all back to normal. We are going to have an environment of heightened uncertainty and heightened volatility. But what we've got again is set the potential for a return to a more normalized environment. And at this point, that's enough. Yeah, I'm just
going to interrupt you for one second here, Julian, because on that point, some breaking news here for our viewers. This on US Steel, those shares are plunging about 13% in the after hours trade.
This is President Trump continues to make comments about his trade policy now saying that he does not want us to go to Japan. Of course, referring to that nip on steel deal that was on was off and maybe was back on again. In his words, he says, quote, we love Japan, but US Steel is a very
special company, and he doesn't want it to go over there. You're seeing those shares oscillate.
特殊的公司，他不希望它去那裡。你看到這些股票在波動。
1:41:23
And Julian, I interrupted you on that point because I think it really sort of illustrates the idea that there is so much unresolved when it comes to White House trade policy.
Julian，我打斷你是因為我認為這真的說明了白宮貿易政策仍有許多未解決的問題。
1:41:32
It's not just the overall reciprocal tariffs, but so many of these other moving parts that he was just talking about the TikTok sale a few minutes ago as well, saying that that's still on the table as a negotiating tool. So as a strategist and as you try to sort of create some sort of
reliable model, Julian, you have to do that, of course, against the backdrop of a president who is still driving the show for better or for worse, and he's doing it in a way that probably is going to continue to be erratic. Well, and look to that point again, you know, as investors,
we've all been frustrated and the market has reflected that that that's so much of the narrative around valuations and around the potential for earnings in the economy lies in the heads and the opinions of one man at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And to that point, that is a headwind
for valuations going forward. But as I say, if there is a willingness to negotiate, which clearly there does seem to be, and a willingness to sort of make sure that the growth
Yeah, as we are, then, you know, there is a path higher. But as you just pointed out, every headline is still going to be something that markets will react to.
Julian, Julian, great to have you, Julian, Emmanuel, Chief Equity and quantitative strategist over at Evercore, ISI. You see that chart on the screen next to me, an 8% rally today, Scarlet, in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And believe it or not, that was actually your laggard on the day. I know, pretty remarkable stuff. You look at the scorecard for how we ended
the day, the S&P 500 staging its biggest advance since the global financial crisis, climbing 9 and a half percent, the NASDAQ 100, surging 12%. This follows four days of painful, violent declines here in the major indexes, nearly every stock in the major indexes gained.
Well, mixed read in the bottom market, and, you know, by recent standards, fairly muted moves, but that doesn't account for the big swings that we saw during the trading.
It was wild, Scarlet. I mean, you saw that huge jump that we saw earlier today, the huge reversal in yields on the long end of the curve I'm talking about. And then, of course, all of that activity shifted to the short end of the curve.
Yeah. Well, I mean, all it took was for President Trump to say he's putting a pause on the reciprocal tariffs, bringing everything down to 10%, except for those countries that have retaliated. There was a 10-year bond auction today that was received well.
There's a 30-year bond auction tomorrow. Remember, an Asian trading roommate, the 30-year reached 5%. It touched that level, came back down to get it is down right now by almost four basis points. Absolutely here. And I'm actually really curious to see what happens.
唐·沃塔吉奧是亞利桑那IST的總裁，抱歉，是創始人兼主席。
1:44:19
When Asia wakes up in their markets, actually, I have to take stock of what happened here in the U.S. It was a massive rally. And, as Scarlet said, it was because of basically stripping away those reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs, those ones that had the potential to be 30, 40, 50, 60 percent. We're now at a baseline of 10%. But you know what he didn't do?
唐，很高興你能來到節目中。我很好奇你是如何應對的。
1:44:37
He did not remove the tariffs on autos, steel, or aluminum. And I think our next guest might actually have something to say about that. Let's bring him in to the conversation right now.
不僅僅是金屬和鋁產品關稅的增加。
1:44:46
Don Votaggio is the president, excuse me, the founder and chairman of Arizona IST.
But more importantly, just kind of the day-to-day shifts in policy. How do you know what you're going to be paying tomorrow, if at all? Don't. That's one of the problems you've gotten circulated since right now. But we're navigating through it. We've been at it for 30 plus years.
We've seen lots of ups and downs. And we'll see how it shakes out.
我們見過很多起起伏伏。我們會看看結果如何。
1:45:24
Is there a sense? I mean, as you sort of try to sort of position your business for whatever times we're going through, you kind of have to look at it from two fronts. Obviously, your input costs, and you have to manage that. But at the same time, you also have to manage whatever consumer expectations are for demand and pricing. What does the balance look like right
now, Don? Well, you know, we're a brand that exists on the premise that you have to make it taste good and price it fair. And we've been doing that for a long time. So, these bumps in the road, like aluminum and the Midwest premium that's associated with
aluminum is something we're dealing with. But the good news is people have to drink and they have to eat. And we're in a spot where most of the stuff we do in America is made here in America comes from our sources. So we're not as exposed as some other companies who bring a big
senator bid from Asia or whatever. Of course, aluminum is one of the big factors we use over 100 million pounds of aluminum annually. And we've been playing with some of the fluctuations in the battle over the last couple of months. I mean, Midwest premium was jumped
over one of the doubles in the beginning of the year. And that's a factor that is something we question about with that legitimacy of that position that exists on the Midwest premium.
這是一個我們質疑其合法性的因素，即中西部溢價的存在。
1:46:45
Because the Midwest premium was built on the premise of moving aluminum from the coast in the middle of the country. You know, 20 years ago, that Midwest premium was five cents. Today, it's about, you know, in the high 30s, low 40s. So you can see that a lot of the tariff
implications have affected that Midwest premium where LME is a traded medal. Yeah, watch that.
的影響已經影響了中西部溢價，而LME是一種交易金屬。是的，關注那個。
1:47:10
So Don, how are you managing that? How are you hedging against volatility in the price of that medal? Right now, we're making where we're just dealing with it. So a month to month situation, our aluminum is applied on a monthly basis to our payment factory. And we're absorbing
good news is we've gotten some decreases on things like freight and some oil and diesel transportation. So, you know, we get some positive, we get some negative. So far, where our decision is the whole pricing, as we did during COVID, I made a decision that
consumers in America don't need another guy raising price, not a guy like me. So, you know, we're holding our study. And we'll get through this. And we'll hopefully all this tariff stuff will ease itself out and move it and go back to what we call mobile price. A good portion of our
hands are made with recycled metal, which comes from, you know, America recycling that goes on in every state meeting. And so a lot of this stuff is, I think, a manipulated, manufactured effect of tariff talks and it affects the Midwest premium and some kind of adjusting.
Oh. One thing that we can say for sure is that sentiment has been affected by the back and forth over the last week or so. And people are feeling a lot more concerned and worried about what's to come. How does that shape how you're thinking about launching new initiatives, new
promotions, new products? Do you move forward with that regardless or do you pull back a little bit given that people are sensitive in terms of pricing, in terms of how they want to spend?
Well, people have got one of the largest marketing departments in the country. It's up six foot eight.
好的，我們擁有全國最大的市場部門之一。它高達六英尺八英寸。
1:49:03
And I have not held back on any new initiatives. We just introducing a vodka based part T that just was produced last week. We've introduced a brand called Homex Farm, which is a nectar that
we partnered up with a company in Mexico over there. We have an Arizona heart. So our initiatives are the same. We haven't pulled back any of that stuff. And again, those things that consumers expect from a company like West, they're, you know, most people have America, I think,
it's not invested in a stock market. They're invested when they go shopping and see a price that they likely buy. And that's what we're about. We offer great value, great taste. And the things that are out of our control here with the things within our control, we're focused on transporting
stuff. We moved a lot towards rail and, you know, mobile trucks, which are, you know, a way to move product around in a less cost, you know, we have a new facility, which is where I'm sitting today over New Jersey that has rail spurs. And we've taken thousands of trucks off the road by having
ability to have rail. So those are the things that we do some cost savings. And then when the little comes around and other things, deal with it. All right.
這些是我們做的一些節省成本的事情。然後，當小的問題出現時，處理它們。好的。
1:50:22
One choice, right. Don, thank you for sharing what you're doing and being so candid. Don Voltejo is Arizona beverages founder and chairman, as he mentioned, they're naked when it comes to the exposure to aluminum prices, but they are able to make some changes around the edges and keep their costs at the end neutral. And he mentioned, of course, of the new Arizona
hard tea, speaking of which constellation brands, of course, the maker of medellabia, corona, and several other alcoholic drinks out with their earnings here, as expected, they weren't necessarily good comp sales in the most recent quarter did come in above estimates. But on a category basis, he did see some significant weaknesses. Beer shipment
volume was down about 2%. Beer depletion volume down about 1%. Wine and spirits shipment volume coming in up 3.5%. That was better than expected though. The company did provide a full year forecast for its fiscal 2026 year. And all of those estimates were well below what the street was
looking for. The company sees comp sale comp EPS at 1260 to 1290 a share. The street was looking for 1409. The company also saying that it sees wines and spirits net sales change down in a range of negative 17 to negative 20%. And beer sales will be flat to up 3%.
We are continuing our focus here on the big rebound on the back, of course, that reprieve that President Trump offered on those tariffs, a 90 day reprieve. And it's raising a lot of questions about why so many of these tariff decisions are being made unilaterally out of the White House. Congress has finally woken up. Senator Chuck Grassley and six other
Republicans have introduced a measure that would require Congress to review and approve most tariffs within 60 days. Now, Trump has already heard about this bill and has threatened to veto it if it passes. Patricia Lopez of Bloomberg opinion wrote about it earlier today saying
that congressional Republicans and Democrats should actually join forces on this reclaim their power restore checks and balances. Patricia Lopez joins us right now and Patricia, I'm not sure there are any checks and balances left in this government. So give me some hope here.
When I see a Republican, a prominent Republican like Grassley signing his name to something pairing up with people and prominent Democrat like Maria can't well, am I to believe that there is maybe some potential here for Congress actually do its job? There is a chance. It's going to be
held for a long time. Democratic presidents, Republican presidents have had this power, but they've used it so sparingly. That's the real distinction here.
President Trump has got this new toy and he has just gone crazy with it. And you've seen the reaction. And I think it takes a lot for somebody like a president of the Senate Chuck Grassley from Iowa. He's been a Trump guy. He has been supportive of tariffs and limited measure.
But I think this just went too wild for him. And he has said that they gave too much authority away. And then you've got Don Bacon in the house from Nebraska, another red state.
And they've got a good cause to join with Democrats on this because there are a number of Democrats that are quite supportive of especially in blue manufacturing states. And we've seen that already.
我們已經在那些選區可以輕易傾向於紅色的州看到這一點。
1:53:34
And we've seen that in states where the district can easily tip into the red as well.
But we know that House Speaker Mike Johnson said he wouldn't bring any bill like this to the floor for a vote. So this is, it feels like it's DOA. But does this at least sow the seeds for the beginning of some bipartisan policymaking? I think it does. I was a little surprised to see how many
Republicans joined Grassley on this bill and how quickly first it was for. Then all of a sudden it was a half dozen. Bacon's got, you know, probably almost a dozen that are equally interested.
And that that is signaling something to the leaders. So nothing is ever dead in Congress until it adjourns. I've learned that over many years as a legislative order. Things can come back from the dead quite easily. I think there's kind of a 90 day shot clock going on here that started
with the president's 90 day pause. And that gives them a little time to regroup to plot some strategy, you know, maybe some coalitions. I think it'll be important for Democrats not to demonize Republicans too much, give them some space to try to join them.
我認為這是非常可能的，也是必要的修正。我們已經看到，沒有個人應該擁有這種對全球經濟的權力。
1:54:47
And I think it's very possible. And it's a necessary correction. We've seen that no individual should have this level of power to a global economy.
Thank you. Patricia Lopez of Bloomberg opinion. Appreciate it. All right. We have a headline here from President Trump saying he cannot imagine further increasing China tariffs.
記得他確實將對中國的關稅提高到125%，即使他宣布對其他沒有報復的國家的關稅暫停90天。Bloomberg Intelligence的首席股票策略師Gina Martin Adams現在加入我們。這如何形成？這如何為明天的
1:55:09
Remember he did raise the duties on China to 125% even as he announced a 90 day pause on other tariffs on other countries that did not retaliate. Gina Martin Adams chief equity strategist with Bloomberg intelligence joins us now. How does this shape up? How does this set us up for tomorrow's
交易做準備？中國股市是下跌還是上漲，這是否會為美國市場的走勢定下基調？
1:55:24
trading? Does China fall or rise and does that kind of set the tone for what happens in US markets?
Sure. Put me right on the spot there, Scarlett, to predict the markets in the most volatile period we've had since October. You know, I think that generally there's a bit of relief that's going to pass over global stocks as a result of the fact that things are not as bad as most
investors had feared coming into today. We saw that with the US trade. We'll likely see that throughout the rest of the world. In terms of China, it's very difficult to say because China's been the one economy that has pushed back hardest against Trump's tariffs. We're already starting to see lots of economic slowdown as a result of a manifestation of these tariffs.
So, you know, it remains to be seen how China reacts. The Chinese equity market, very interestingly, though, was one of the worst behaving equity markets already. So the China equity market does appear to have priced in a tremendous amount of weakness as it is and is not as levered to the
economy. I think this is commonly believed. The equity market is more tech stocks.
我認為這是普遍的看法。股市更多是科技股。
1:56:26
It's not necessarily completely levered to what's happening in underlying economic conditions.
它並不一定完全與基本經濟狀況密切相關。
1:56:32
So you could very easily see a recovery in China tech, specifically lead the Chinese equity market, just like our tech led here. Let's just circle back quick 30 seconds to the US markets. Did anything change in your fundamental view over the last few hours given that the worst case scenarios with tariffs are removed or at least removed for 90 days? Yeah. So the wonderful thing
about our process is we don't have a view. We don't have an opinion. We really just follow the data as it's moving. And the data pre tariff implementation, pre tariff announcement, was already starting to deteriorate because there's so much uncertainty as to what's happening in the economic client. So nothing changes in our process as a result of this. You do have the
好的，Gina Martin Adams，我們在Bloomberg Intelligence的首席股票策略師。在接下來的幾天裡，當你試圖理清所有市場混亂時，絕對是一個你想要關注的團隊。至於華盛頓的混亂，Kaylee和Joe將在整點時段帶來權力平衡節目，就在Bloomberg。
1:57:10
rewriting, maybe some improvement in technicals. All right, Gina Martin Adams, our chief equity strategist over at Bloomberg Intelligence. Definitely a team you want to keep an eye on over the next few days as you try to sort through all of the market chaos. As far as the Washington chaos, Kaylee and Joe are up next at the top of the hour with balance of power right here on Bloomberg.
可能有一些技術面的改善。好的，Gina Martin Adams，我們在Bloomberg Intelligence的首席股票策略師。在接下來的幾天裡，當你試圖理清所有市場混亂時，絕對是一個你想要關注的團隊。至於華盛頓的混亂，Kaylee和Joe將在整點時段帶來權力平衡節目，就在Bloomberg。
Stock Surge Special | Bloomberg: The Close 04/09/2025
