the countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this is the clothes the bullish price action persists in a post-fed rate cut world live from studio to here at Bloomberg headquarters in
New York welcome back Katie I'm remain Boston and I'm Katie Greifel we're kicking you off to the closing bell here in the US it's Friday let's bring it home the S&P 500 looking at record highs again remember we got the triple crown yesterday doesn't look like we're gonna get it today because the S&P 500
the NASDAQ 100 extending from records I cannot say the same about the Russell 2000 we hit our first record high since November 2021 now we're falling about 7 tenths of a percent also not cooperating with the bullish price action I thought this was interesting remain Bitcoin down on this Friday
just about 1.8 percent but still again not cooperating not singing from the same choir yeah not the triple crown not the quadruple crown but certainly maybe a daily double Katie Greifel in fact this will go down as the biggest week of inflows for global stocks all year long 68 billion dollars allocated
to global equity funds 58 billion in the US that's according to Bank of America's read on the latest data but show a confidence that the worst case tariff scenarios earlier this year are off the table for the rest of 2025 confidence the economic conditions now can improve heading into 2026 you can
count me in the camp of someone who was concerned around the tariff impact it was really hard because it was so unprecedented to kind of model whether or not we were gonna have a step change in terms of prices but instead what we're we're getting is what I'm calling boiling the frog the positive price
shift isn't just limited to stocks investment grade corporate bonds rallying for the eighth week in the past 10 high-yield bonds on the seven week streak and a measure on the risk premium across the board in aggregate it actually suggests that US corporate bond valuation is now set at their richest
levels since 1998 now despite the bullish price action across assets investors sentiment curiously is still bearish take equities for example despite them with a one trillion dollars in global stock market gains this week a survey from the American Association of individual investors shows bears out
numbering bulls for a seventh straight week only the third time in 25 years where sentiment has been so bearish for so long at its time when stocks are at record highs one really interested to see when the sentiment actually translates into the price action because you take a look at the twin rally that we're
seeing in the equity market and in the bond market five-month winning streak for the S&P 500 that's what we're looking at right now then you train your eyes on the 10-year treasury yield you can see we're declining for two months here even with this little uptick that we've seen just in the past two days still
much lower than where we started September so twin rallies in these two asset classes that's not what's supposed to happen romaine so we'll have to see what is the catalyst to return to maybe the more typical relationship where when this line goes down this one does too Karen Murphy joins us right now to kick
us off to the close chief investment officer over at Kestra investment management and Kara I mean that really is the big question right now I mean you take a look at the record rally you take a look at what seems to be a shift in sentiment but I am curious as to how much conviction is behind this longer term so it certainly feels like the momentum is up and we've used this term
as well that everything rally where all of a sudden everything is starting to catch a bid but the other way of thinking about it is that in many ways this is a healthy shift for the market where if we think about so much of the markets move over the last couple of years has been really concentrated in the MAG 7 you go back to 2023 those seven names accounted for two-thirds of the
S&P 500s gain last year was about half this year year to date they're contributing at about a third of the S&P 500s gain what that means is that other stocks are able to start to take some of that leadership other asset classes other parts of the world and that actually leads to a much healthier
market because we can't just rely on these seven names which have fairly correlated stories to be able to drive this forever well we did seem to get a little bit of a taste of that particularly yesterday seeing the really outside and out performance by the Russell 2000 now that's not carrying
over into today but when you take a look at the possibility of an extended rate cutting cycle and the possibility the economic conditions could at least be stable does that maybe provide the green light to maybe start to buy more in the small and mid cap space I thought it was really interesting to see the rally in
the Russell 2000 and then I looked at some more mid-cappy type indexes that did not have that type of strength over the last couple of days when we think about performance over the next like six months to a couple of years we actually think areas like smaller large and mid cap or are better positioned
even in a rate cutting environment that often comes with a little bit of stress and a lot of these really small names then can so come to that stress and then you think about policy challenges like tariffs whereas if you're in that like mid cap or smaller large cap area you still have the benefit of lower
Dan Niles，Niles投資管理公司的創始人和投資組合經理，將在一秒鐘後加入我們，談論該行業的下一步發展。此外，傑里米·西格爾，賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院的金融榮譽教授，將與我們談論美聯儲的下一步行動，以及美國經濟是否準備好走向低谷，以及何時不會走向低谷。DJ John Summit實際上在稍早時候來到了工作室，在紐約市的一個大型音樂節之前，我們將與他談論音樂業務，更重要的是，談論他的業務以及他如何經營它，這將在稍後的收盤節目中播出，這是Bloomberg。
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valuations kind of being forgotten in some ways by some investors but they tend to be a little bit more heavily indebted than the really large names so they benefit from the those lower rates but they're better able to navigate some of those policy uncertainties so we'd rather be in sort of like the middle part
of the market cap spectrum rather than going all the way to the small end that's really interesting Cara because I feel like sometimes the mid cap space suffers from narrative ambiguity you think about the personality that you ascribe to large caps a lot of that comes back to tech you think about the
small caps you know those what or what will probably benefit from a rate cutting cycle and as the economy maybe is on an upswing that's the narrative at least what is the personality though when it comes to mid caps how should people be thinking about them yeah I love the way that you put that in context right like
they're narratively challenged and even when you look at technology if you compare the large cap technology indexes to the mid cap technology indexes you see those mid cap tech names have really lagged so they just haven't been able to ride that like AI spending wave that some of these larger tech names have
been able to but I think it goes back to really basics right they have decent earnings growth it's been okay but it's starting to look better heading into the latter part of 25 and into 2026 you've really low valuations and then you have some of the more structural issues where you have a lot of sell side analysts who
are not covering these names anymore they're not nearly as well known and understood as what we've seen in previous cycles so I think there are a lot of great opportunities for bargain hunting in that area bargain hunting certainly some names on sale there let's bring this conversation though to fix income
because Romaine was mentioning how corporate spreads right now have narrowed in such a significant way we're at levels not seen since 1998 what do you do with corporate credit in this environment is this too tight to be attractive or do you take a look at those all in yields and say this looks pretty good I think
we're seeing a lot of the same trends in the fixed income market that we are in the equity market in that the economy remains fairly resilient you have an accommodative fed sort of and those are things that's that benefit credit as well that said similar to some of the issues that we have in the more richly
valued areas of the equity markets we'd be a bit cautious going way out on the credit curve in the fixed income world as well so high yield for instance with those spreads at really rock bottom levels you get a nice absolute yield but is it really enough to overcome the higher level of risk that you have we
think not always so we're looking a little bit more in high-grade credit where you have more juicy absolute yields but again we think that those companies can really weather any potential challenges on the economic side then how does that fold out back into the treasury market particularly when we start to talk
about duration and what still seems to be some reticence by investors in the secondary market and for that matter even in the primary market to start buying 10 20 30 years out yeah I think we share some of that resistance I mean when we look overall at the fixed income market treasury market in particular
there's a huge amount of volatility that hasn't really settled out and I think you see that particularly on the long end and you know we tend to hash things out a lot on the short end of the curve because of the focus on Fed policy especially during a week like this but really the bigger risk is how did those
decisions today start to impact our view of the long end of the curve and that's where we've seen inflation expectations very recently have started to increase a little bit and that's where I think the risk of a policy mistake on the short term ends up getting priced in and could potentially hurt the long end of the curve so again even in the treasury world we'd rather be in
those mid-duration issues all right Cara great stuff Cara Murphy Chief Investment Officer over at Kestra Investment Management kicking us off to the close here on this Friday afternoon a monster week for big tech a monster week for chip stocks and a lot of questions about where we go from here
Dan Niles founder and portfolio manager and Niles investment management joins us in a second to talk about what comes next for the sector plus Jeremy Siegel professor emeritus of finance at the Wharton School talks to us about what's next for the Fed and if the US economy is poised to hit a sour note and when not
Dan Niles，Niles Investment Management的創始人和投資組合經理，將在片刻後加入我們，討論該行業的未來。此外，賓夕法尼亞大學華頓商學院的金融榮譽教授Jeremy Siegel將與我們討論聯準會的未來以及美國經濟是否可能走向低迷，以及何時不會
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hitting a sour note DJ John Summit he actually stopped by the studio a little bit earlier ahead of a big festival here in New York City we're going to talk to him about the music business and more importantly about his business and how he runs it that's coming up in a bit right here on the close this is Bloomberg
走向低迷。DJ John Summit在紐約市的一個大型音樂節之前，稍早來過錄音室。我們將與他討論音樂產業，更重要的是他的生意以及他如何經營它。這將在片刻後在收盤時段播出，這是Bloomberg。
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well consumer credit is in focus amid shifting dynamics as we enter year end but a rapid expansion in by now pay later is raising concerns on consumer credit trends even as Clara and a firm continue to outperform card lender metrics let's discuss the state of the consumer a little bit deeper with Dana
Peterson she is chief economist over at the conference for Dana great to have you with us and we tend to talk about the consumer as a monolith but that certainly isn't the case and when you take a look at the different spending tiers the different income tiers in this economy I would imagine that that
uniformity falls apart a bit it absolutely does in fact we did a survey where we asked people how are they paying for things and we asked about cash credit cards web-based payments like Zell and also buy now pay later and for
lower income groups you know they prefer to use cash and also because they can access credit but they also are growing in terms of their use of buy now pay later when it comes to upper income groups they're more likely to use credit cards because first of all they have the credit scores to get them they also get
lots of benefits and perks yes that's really interesting when you think about you know by now pay later certainly speaking to a certain tier then you think about spending on credit as you mentioned for those higher earners there was a really interesting study out from Moody's analytics earlier this week that
the top 10 percent of earners are driving a growing share of US consumer spending and I would just love to hear your thoughts on that and what that says about where we are in this moment in time I mean well that makes sense they have the folks who have jobs and have money most people are working in the United
States but our own surveys and are telling us even when you look at the jolt's data that consumers are concerned about the labor market and when they're concerned about the labor market they stop spending indeed many consumers along all different demographic groups and income groups are moving away from
discretionary goods to necessary goods and even among services they're switching from you know vacations and things like that to services that they need like car insurance and so we're seeing that shift and typically the upper tiers in
terms of income always have money but they may change how they purchase things so we may go back to instead of having logos on shopping bags they're just preling brown bags and so that's not surprising giving the fact that yes the economy is slowing and consumers are very worried about that but Dana if
I don't have logos on my bag how will everyone know that I'm rich I'm confused and all seriousness it gets to this idea though too that you know we talk about what people are spending on but also the complexion the idea that the upper end of the income spectrum seems to be making up the bulk of the growth that we've been seeing in spending what traditionally
arrests that spending at the upper echelon if it's not a drop in income is it just what the wealth effect the drop in the stock market what I mean for the we have different layers of wealthy I mean for the most wealthy people really doesn't matter but you know for people who are more aspirational you know maybe upper
middle class or you know they're you know going to thrift shops to get things they're probably gonna slow their their spending and certainly you know fear of losing your job or recession heightens the likelihood that they will stop spending on these items and indeed you know
in the news luxury brands have been having some trouble because people are pulling back especially the people who are more aspirational in their purchases it's kind of interesting though too I mean a little bit earlier this week we had caught up with the CEO of United Airlines and
we spoke with a couple other airline executives and there's been a lot of talk amongst them about shifting a little bit more their priorities towards premium passengers if you will whether it's business class first class or at least a premium economy experience these aren't short-term types of moves you don't just sort of make those changes and then roll them back a month later
these are more permanent and structural changes that they're making and I do wonder what that says longer term about about just I guess where we are in this economy well I think the airline business has done a great job of creating these tranches where people want
to play so for example if you want the luxury experience then you sit in first class or you if you're an economy you might want more room extra room so people are basically paying for what they're willing to put up with for two or three hours on a plane and I think that that kind of differentiation
a lot of other industries are going to consider as well and let's talk a little bit about this week's FED meeting and what we heard from Chairman Jerome Powell there because it seems again that the focus for this FED has shifted a little bit more to the labor market and maybe at the expense
of that concern about inflation and again wrapping it into what we're talking about when it comes to the consumer I mean do you think that that is the appropriate focus in terms of where their concern is weighted I think so unlike last year where we found out we didn't have many payrolls
we were still approaching an achieved full employment and when you're at full employment you don't need big payroll gains but this year is different we've had a major shock and that's tariffs and tariffs are impacting inflation raising prices that are already elevated and consumers
have responded to that by pulling back and so that potentially is going to affect what we're going to see in terms of consumption the fact that consumers are very worried and they're just not going to do this and so I think this cut was an insurance cut to just kind of
get things going and certainly when you look at the SCP we have another two well we have 50 basis points of cuts this year whether that's in one meeting or split and then we have several cuts for next year and then not really getting to their city city till 2027 so I think this is correct
what they're doing and it's also going back to their preemptive nature that we haven't seen in almost 20 years but there's still data dependence so it's kind of a hybrid policy but definitely the Fed did this I think to just give the economy a little bit of a boost all right Dana gotta leave
it there always appreciate it then a Peterson cheap economist over at the conference board and just a reminder the next big data point economic data point for this market comes a week from today with the latest numbers on the personal income and spending all right coming up here we are going to talk about the chip sector it was a big week particularly for Intel more than 20%
rally on the week we're going to break down what exactly comes next for Intel on the heels of that five billion dollar investment from Nvidia this is the close on Bloomberg time now for our top calls big movers on the back of analyst recommendations and we start off with
Tesla bear it actually upgrading to outperform with a 548 price target the analyst saying recurring revenue should become a larger part of the EV maker story particularly if it makes good on those promises to move deeper into physical AI and robotics taking a look at the shares up 2% on the day
heading toward 3rd Street week again next up clavio more than Stanley raising the e-marketing company to overweight the price target bump to 50 from 40 the analyst saying clavio has a positive growth outlook and an attractive entry point for investors at stock headed toward its best
week since late April and finally we got to talk about Intel benchmark upgrading the chip maker to buy saying the five billion dollar investment from Nvidia it marks a tipping point and that analyst recommends investors use any share price weakness as an opportunity to build long-term positions Intel shares pulling back by three and a half percent on the day but still
up 20% on the weekend more than 50% since the start of August those are some of our top calls and we do want to stay on that last one particularly given all of the attention right now on Intel let's bring in Jay Goldberg his analyst over at seaport research and Jay he have a sell rating on
this stock you've had a sell rating on stock for a big part of the year and when i went back and look at your initial note back in April you talked a lot about a company fighting to survive a company that hadn't articulated an AI strategy are you seeing any changes or potential changes
a foot that might make you a little bit more positive on this name no no the only thing that's really changed is the company has gotten some outside investment and that was the big news yesterday and other than that they still they still don't have an AI strategy and there's still some
very large questions around what's going to happen to their manufacturing operations their fabs i am curious i'm glad you brought that up because this question was raised several times yesterday and no one seemed to be able to give an answer Nvidia seemed to be a little bit coy about it but do you think there's a possibility that Nvidia might actually find some value in
that fab operation and i guess for lack of a better phrase revitalize it so they had this announcement yesterday with Nvidia partnering up with Intel and the most important part of that is Nvidia is going to give Intel or invest five billion dollars into Intel common stock which is important right and i you know i would like to see Intel succeed here and that's good news
the problem was the the deal itself i found was unsatisfying and i found the press conference afterwards was unnerving the the two CEOs talked for 45 minutes and only Jensen Huang from Nvidia was was the only one to mention Intel's fabs every every question they got was somebody was asking
CPU GPU系統，使用所有這些縮寫。這些系統已經存在，英偉達實際上擁有一個非常好的CPU，它在大多數銷售中使用。但對於偶爾希望使用英特爾CPU的客戶，現在也可以使用了，這對AMD來說不是好消息，但再說一次，我們談論的是一個相當小的市場，對吧？因此，除此之外，昨天的電話會議中真正重要的事情是，首先是現金，其次是它發出的信號，即英偉達表示他們相信英特爾，對吧？我們確實從黃仁勳
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some version of what what about Intel's fabs what about Intel Foundry and even Intel CEO he couldn't i don't think he mentioned the his own fabs once it was it was it was very telling i'm you know it makes me really wonder what their strategy there is jay was that the only unsatisfying
part of that press conference or what else more would you have like to hear from both of those CEOs well i think that's really the big the big question in terms of the actual meat of the deal it's a fairly small revenue opportunity right the market we're talking about is probably a couple hundred million dollars that's left over Intel and Nvidia are going to co-design
CPU GPU systems to use all the acronyms um and those exist already Nvidia actually has a pretty good CPU that it uses for most of its sales today but for the occasional customer who wants to use Intel CPUs that's now going to be available and that's that's not great for AMD but again this is a
CPU GPU系統，用所有縮寫來說，這些系統已經存在。Nvidia實際上擁有一個非常好的CPU，它在今天的大部分銷售中使用，但對於偶爾想使用Intel CPU的客戶，這現在將可用，這對AMD來說不是好消息，但再次強調，我們談論的是一個
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pretty small small market we're talking about right and so beyond that what was really significant about the call yesterday was won the cash and to the signaling that it sent sort of Nvidia saying they believed in Intel right and uh something that we did hear from Jensen Wong
and Lit Bhutan is that the Trump administration didn't orchestrate this deal uh but there is the idea out there that this is a deal that probably the Trump administration did welcome you also consider the fact that of course the Trump administration has a stake in Intel you have sell
ratings on both of these companies some could say that that's a bold move given that there is the implicit backing of the government here I yeah that is that's a fair point right I mean Nvidia Jensen Wong made three billion dollars for Donald Trump yesterday and so that's got to count for
something for him but I just think in terms of fundamentals I'm still very very cautious about where Intel goes right this the deal yesterday doesn't change the the numbers it doesn't change their new term market share their sales trajectory and it doesn't answer the big question about their fabs which I think is important not just for Intel but important for all of America that Intel
擁有運作中的晶圓廠對產業非常重要，我只是希望他們能說點什麼，這樣我會感覺好很多。當然，Jay，我們很多人都在密切關注這件事，投資者有點興奮，但很有趣看到這一切如何發展。Jay，非常感謝你。Jay Goldberg是Seaport Research Partners的分析師。當然，英特爾確實有
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has working fabs it's important for the industry and I just would have felt much better if they could have said anything about it all right well Jay of course a lot of us are really keeping eye on this investors got a little pop but it'll be interesting to see all this plays out Jay really appreciate it Jay Goldberg analyst over at Seaport Research Partners of course Intel did
擁有運作中的晶圓廠對產業非常重要，我只是希望他們能說點什麼，這樣我會感覺好很多。當然，Jay，我們很多人都在密切關注這件事，投資者有點興奮，但很有趣看到這一切如何發展。Jay，非常感謝你。Jay Goldberg是Seaport Research Partners的分析師。當然，英特爾確實有
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have a phenomenal week but of course Jay brings up a lot of issues so many unresolved issues for this and as you pointed out the five billion dollars investment in Nvidia still relatively small and really not articulated with a long-term strategy absolutely so it doesn't fix the fundamentals but I mean five billion dollars not too bad I would take it absolutely I would too
about a lot of local bags with that it's true of course I continue the consumer spending in this economy but still Intel shares up nearly 23 percent on the week so clearly investors welcoming this news as well coming up we'll continue to talk more tech with Dan Niles he is founder and
portfolio manager over at Niles investment management that conversation up next this is Bloomberg 330 p.m. in a beautiful New York City this is the countdown to the close I'm Romaine Boston and
I'm Katie Greifel and a happy Friday Apple CEO Tim Cook green of customers and Romaine Bostic at the flagship store in New York as the tech giant launched its latest iPhone models and air pods give us the on the ground I want you to look real squint really hard but I'm actually in the
building behind that yeah behind the glass cube I was in the lobby up there when he came out to all the cheers really I was actually surprised first of all when I walked I was not there for the apple oven I was there for a different event that happened to be in the office building above it I was surprised the lines for this but then when I realized him cook was there I realized it
was probably less lined by the iPhone and more to get a selfie with Tim Cook yeah you can see the fans loving it it's interesting I mean for as much as we criticize will critique of course in a awful way some of the product moves that apple has made it I mean the sales are there you can
可能與 iPhone 關係不大，更多是為了與 Tim Cook 自拍。你可以看到粉絲們很喜歡這個，這很有趣。我的意思是，儘管我們批評，當然以某種可怕的方式批評蘋果的一些產品動作，但銷售數據就擺在那裡，你可以看到人群。
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see the crowds well that's the thing I mean as much as yeah like I said you kind of okay great another iPhone with another pixel in the camera or something but at the end of the day this still remains a cash juggernaut yeah a phenomenal week for the stock and an ecosystem that at least so far is proven to be very sticky the question is now what do they do next to sort of really capitalizing
and further off that's the thing the network effects hard to walk away from your apple products but that is the question what they do next so joining us to discuss basically the whole tech ecosystem please to say we have Dan Niles he is founder and portfolio manager over at Niles investment management Dan great to have you with us on this friday so you think about the tech
這就是重點。網絡效應讓人很難放棄蘋果產品，但問題是他們接下來會做什麼。加入我們討論整個科技生態系統的，我們很高興有 Dan Niles，他是 Niles 投資管理公司的創始人和投資組合經理。Dan，很高興你在這個星期五與我們一起。你考慮整個科技行業，七巨頭仍然有熱情，人工智慧的敘事仍然存在，但在圖表上我們目前的位置，你對整個大型科技股的感覺如何？
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sector overall the magnificent seven there's still that enthusiasm there's still the narrative when it comes to AI but at this point where we are on the charts how are you feeling about big tech as a whole well I mean I think knowing that you've got a rate cut for the fed for the first
time since December of last year you got two more probably coming I think it's time to think more broadly beyond just the magnificent seven and so I've talked about we're in this phase of a rational exuberance right now because you do have these rate cuts and everybody wants to believe
but I think you want to be prudent with that rational exuberance and so thinking more broadly about the S&P 500 where names that benefit from rate cuts or small caps they're probably going to do pretty well in this environment I mean don't forget we're almost
three years into this AI trade and I'm not saying that you're not going to have still some winners from that but it's pretty much crowded out all the other investments and I think with the environment wherein you need to think a little bit more broadly between now and year at well Dan I want to go
right down to the bottom of the notes that you sent over to our producers I thought this was so interesting that the best risk adjusted idea you have today is to only S&P 500 as a whole it's refreshing to hear that because a lot of folks come on and tell you why you have to be a little bit
more specific but why in this moment do you just want to own the index because you're taking on a lot of risk I mean the market's trading at 25 times earnings you're dealing with the fact that the Fed's cutting despite the fact that if you look at their dot plots relative to three months
ago their forecast they have inflation going up in aggregate through 2027 they have GDP estimates going up through 2027 they have unemployment going down but they're cutting rates anyway and so you're in this environment where you're superheating the market the Fed's letting the
好的，我認為你會開始看到一些增長率的減少，在某些情況下可能會有一些收縮，因為別忘了有一個警告信號。
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economy run hot much like they did in 2021 and 2021 was a great year right we all felt good the S&P was up 27 percent and then in 2022 you had to pay for the Fed letting the economy run hot and saying inflation was transitory so if you're in this environment where multiples are so high
the price to sales ratio on the S&P's at the highest it's ever been then I think you want to be more broadly diversified than owning just seven stocks in the market where the multiples are even higher for those names and the expectations are even higher in those so that's why I'm saying a broader
group that benefits from rate cuts sectors that have been forgotten you know that's where we're increasingly putting our money to work I am curious and just about investor sentiment overall given where we've gone I mean some recent surveys including by Bank of America as well as the AIA
survey seems to suggest that there is still a bearish tilt with regards to sentiment and I'm wondering if that in and of itself could end up being a more of a bullish signal that if people do feel like they are finally missing out on this phenomenal rally that they do come off the sidelines
and push money into the market 100 percent agree with you and the best numeric way to look at that is you would think in this environment where the S&P's up 13 percent you think everybody's flooded into the market but if you look at money market funds they're sitting at seven point three trillion
dollars at a record and they're up 16 percent year over year now if you go back to prior periods when you've had these ramp ups in the market you know a lot of those cases money market funds were flat to down for a good portion of it other than the kind of the blow off tops that you saw
so you know greed is a really powerful motivator when you've got the Fed cutting investors remember 2021 they see some of the magnificent seven stocks starting to work again even some of the laggards you know you get towards your end and everybody knows about the Santa Claus rally and the fact
that November January sorry November December January the three best consecutive months of the year it's going to be hard to fight what you just said romaine which is sort of the greed factor starting to kick in and formal with regards to the AI trade specifically Dan and coming out of this
early season we seem to get ratification that at least for right now the corporate spend on this is holding up as we get into 2026 and those companies have to start articulating what that spend looks like for next year and beyond do you think we're going to see similar levels or are
you anticipating maybe we'll start to see a little bit of a ratchet down in that spending now that at least the initial the initial start is already out there well I think you're going to start to see some ratcheting down of the rate of growth and maybe some contraction in some cases because you know don't forget there was a warning shot that was
fired across the bow and that's the fact that Nvidia missed the data center forecast that Wall Street had despite having had a write down in the prior quarter now they didn't miss my bunch by you know 1% or so but at the end of the day it's the first miss since we ever heard about this
thing called chat GPT so that's something to keep in mind but more importantly if you think about at the end customer level what have we heard well you saw that MIT survey that's at 95% of corporations investing in an in AI we're getting 0% returns this is three years after we heard
about chat GPT you look and look at open AI Sam Altman the CEO has said several times that we're in an AI bubble and if you look at their own forecast they increased revenues by about 26 billion for 2030 to about 200 billion but it took 80 billion more in cash burn to get to that
你看OpenAI的CEO Sam Altman多次表示，我們正處於AI泡沫中，如果你看他們自己的預測，他們將2030年的收入從260億美元增加到2000億美元，但需要額外燒掉800億美元現金才能達到這個目標
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number or you look at Salesforce which was kind of the poster child for agentic AI the stock was at an all-time record high in late 2024 it was at a 52-week low in August right because corporations just aren't adopting this so you're starting to see some warning shots across the
bow which is the other reason why I say hey you want to be in a broader group of stocks because we're three years into this spending is torrid but you're going to need to see a return and I think you're going to see some slow down we're not you're not going to have companies raising
capex necessarily when they report the September quarters in another month or so well Dan don't have a lot of time left here but I do want to get specific and when we talk about big tech I hear what you're saying about that MIT study certainly heard around the industry and the fact that we
haven't seen a lot of ROI I know though that when it comes to the Magnificent Seven you still see a pathway here for Google especially when you think about chat GPT and how Gemini is positioned there well absolutely because if you look at the data last Friday Gemini passed chat GPT
in the free app store for Apple and the reason is you may have heard of the new app nano banana which is a video sorry a image editing app but they also have vio 3 which is a video generation app and AI overviews I'm finding very very useful and you're seeing that more and more and the
engagement with Google's going up in the sense that March quarter paid clicks were up two percent year over year that's down from when chapter GPT got introduced when they were up eight eight percent year over year well in June they actually went up they went from plus two in March to plus
four in June so you're starting to see people engaging more and I know for myself you know early on I was using chat GPT then I switched to grok now I'm using Gemini more because I find it more useful and Google has more data than anyone on the planet to return accurate answers to you so I see them as the long-term winner in consumer AI all right Dan gotta leave it there
always appreciate it Dan Niles founder portfolio manager at Niles investment management on a big week for big tech but when we come back we're going to talk about one of the biggest losers on the week and on the day it's Instacart the stock taking a hit as Amazon bags a new partnership with a major American grocery store chain it's our stock of the hour and it's up next this is Bloomberg
let's get right to our stock of the hour it's Instacart it's down eight percent this on the back of a report that Amazon is going to partner with the supermarket chain when Dixie to offer grocery deliveries down in Florida man deep Singh joins us right now global head of technology research over at Bloomberg intelligence raising a lot of questions here not so much about Amazon and
when Dixie but where does Instacart even fit in anymore in the online grocery delivery space yeah I think what's very clear now is that marketplace is a skilled business that's why you're seeing you know the likes of DoorDash and Uber really kind of you know take up in
market cap compared to the lift and Instacart and look with Amazon getting into this partnership to me it's more about you know than figuring out what that next leg of e-commerce is going to look like in the world of AI agents I don't think they're looking to really scale up big in grocery
delivery it's more about figuring out what impact AI agents would have on browsing shopping e-commerce last mile delivery and they're piloting it with this chain so grocery delivery is not that time sensitive when you think about it you know the failure rates can be acceptable and so that's I
think what they are trying to figure out is different experiences when it comes to grocery delivery with this world of AI agents well this is what I find fascinating about Amazon that you know you think about how the stock trades it's mostly about AWS and AI as you mentioned but
it has this sprawling giant e-commerce business it's taking over the world of grocery as well but that's not necessarily what people trade on Mandeep I mean look at their ads business right so Amazon's ad business run rate is 63 billion compared that to a meta 185 billion even the small
companies we're talking about you know Instacart has a billion dollar ads business DoorDash has a billion dollar ads business so ultimately the goal is to build a platform where you have enough users where you can show ads but with the agent take experience that whole point and click interface
could change so these companies have to adapt and you know a company like Amazon with 180 million prime users they need to figure out what that next UI is gonna look like and I think they have to highlight it with different e-commerce use cases I think grocery delivery gives you the frequency
so that's what they're trying to do here all right Mandeep have a great weekend when you get there that is Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence now coming up we'll take you to the closing bell just about 15 minutes away Tracy Chen she is portfolio manager over at Brandywine Global she joins us next this is the close on Bloomberg
when we think about performance over the next like six months through a couple of years we actually think areas like smaller large and mid cap or are better positioned even in a rate cutting environment that often comes with a little bit of stress and a lot of these really
small names then can succumb to that stress Kara Murphy Chief Investment Officer over at Kestra Investment Management Katie Greifel she kicked us off to the close just about 50 minutes ago yeah helping us to wrap up what has been a stellar week when it comes to the S&P 500 and you can see
we're going to finish on a high note at least when it comes to the big benchmark the S&P 500 higher by about half a percent big tech leading there up about seven tenths of percent on the NASDAQ 100 I can't say the same for the small caps the Russell 2000 down about seven tenths of a percent after that big big out performance that we saw yesterday and bitcoin again not really
moving in sync with this risk on attitude flowing through the large caps bitcoin down about two percent yeah I was curious about these sort of head fakes that we get out of the small caps we should point out that some of the really small caps but those with a little bit more of a bent towards Washington are getting a nice bid including the nuclear power companies oh glow new scale
我對小型股的這些假動作感到好奇，我們應該指出，一些真正的小型股，特別是那些與華盛頓關係更密切的公司，正在獲得良好的買盤，包括核能公司哦，glow new scale
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up more than 20 percent on the day the quantum stocks also moving higher as well if you're looking for a few bright spots Tracy Chen she joins us right now portfolio manager over at brandy wine global to count us down to the closing bells and the big question everyone has Tracy Chen is whether
當日漲幅超過 20%，量子股也在上漲，如果你正在尋找一些亮點，Tracy Chen 現在加入我們，Brandywine Global 的投資組合經理，為我們倒數收盤鐘聲，每個人都有的大問題是 Tracy Chen 是否
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there is actually enough impetus economically from a monetary policy perspective and more importantly from a valuation perspective to keep this rally going very nice to see you yes I think this rally is definitely boosted by still resilient growth and the expectation for a deep cut pass
for the Fed but after the Fed cut 25 basis point you see the yield curve steepening again and the financial market is on fire so whether you think the Fed cut into a gross acceleration or deceleration I think that's the question I think if it's the former I think the risk I said well
will be just continue to rally and then the financial stabilization will be I think at risk at some point there is sort of a read through from what we're seeing in the equity space to what we're also seeing in the fixed income space corporate credit spreads the tightest they've been in two
to three decades depending on what measure you're taking a look at investment grade high yield the risk premium pretty much absent is that validation is that a vote of confidence in economic condition I think there are a lot of factors that has been driving that so first of all it's
from previous year's high yield market and you see some upgrade and you see a decent free cash flow and at same time the credit the credit fundamental are still solid and the composition of the high yield index also changed quite a lot so this is fundamental and then in terms of
technical you see a massive amount of inflow into annuity fund and a mutual fund and fixed income fund so this this reach for yield is still right there the all-in-yield for high yield is very high and also this applies to structured credit as well so even though the spread is very tight all-in-yield
is still very attractive and certainly I think if you look at France a lot of some of the French corporate bond they're spread tightened through their sovereign bond so that's actually a warning sign so right now you can argue is a risk in the corporate credit market or in the sovereign
認為唯一能夠支持長期債券的因素是美聯儲是否能夠對收益率曲線進行一些非常規的調整或干預，是否能夠控制收益率曲線或其他手段，嘿，Tracy，請保持這個想法一秒鐘，現在正在與 Brandywine Global 的 Tracy Chen 進行對話，我們現在有一些突發新聞，這是關於甲骨文的，股價在消息傳出後上漲約 4%，甲骨文正在與 Meta 就一項 200 億美元的人工智慧雲端運算交易進行談判，這是基於彭博社的報導和熟悉談判的人士，這些談判尚未達成協議，但他們表示，在最終協議之前，交易條款仍可能發生變化，不過，我們談論的是一項 200 億美元的交易，當然，這是在本週早些時候我們了解到的另一項交易之後，也涉及甲骨文 Katie，現在似乎成為人工智慧領域的焦點，這就是甲骨文的感覺，所有的星星都在對齊，如你所指出的，你可以看到甲骨文股價在該消息傳出後上漲超過 4%，但 Meta 當日仍然下跌，但接近持平，因為投資者消化這個頭條新聞，即甲骨文正在與 Meta 就一項 200 億
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a sovereign bond market whether other DM countries uh bond market will follow that right can corporate credit or structured credit eventually trades through sovereign bond uh right the sovereign bond market yeah well I'll ask you exactly that we saw it happen in France as you
point out do you think we could see something similar when it comes to the US fixed income markets um I think that's possible um it really depends on the fiscal path uh right here and also um I
think the only thing that can support the long end is whether the Fed can do some unconventional tweaking or intervention of the curve whether the yield curve so uh yield curve controls some other means hey Tracy hold that thought for one second in conversation right now with Tracy Chen
over at brandy wine global we do have some breaking news crossing the wire right now this on oracle the shares popping about four percent here on the back of news the oracle isn't talks with meta on a 20 billion dollar ai cloud computing deal now this is based on bloomberg reporting site
and people familiar with the talks these talks are not yet a done deal but they said and the in the terms of the deal could still change before a final agreement nevertheless we're talking about a 20 billion dollar a deal of course this follows on the heels of a previous deal uh that we learned about earlier this week also involved in oracle katie which seems to now have become
the bill at the ball when it comes to ai that's the thing oracle it feels like all the stars are aligning there as you point out you can see oracle shares popping on that news now more than four percent can't say the same for meta still lower on the day but getting back to unchanged as investors digest of course that headline which again is that oracle in talks with meta on a 20 billion
dollar ai cloud computing deal that is according to bloomberg news reporting we'll continue to follow that story here and i do want to go back to uh Tracy and bring her back into this conversation and Tracy i know you haven't had a chance to parse these headlines but there is a broader
question here about the ai spin how important that has been to the rally over the last couple of years and what importance it's going to have to this rally if it continues over the next year or two yeah i think this ai boom or ai span uh has broad implication for the fixing come market first
it can drive the labor market whether you will see some massive white collar uh jobs getting eliminated and also it can uh boost productivity but at the same time right now we still see uh around 90 percent of companies um they are still haven't generated uh like profit from ai span yet
so so but the race between china and us i think it's it's getting red hot so so from a national security perspective i think this ai span will be humongous and you see this merger and acquisition going on but so i think this in the short term definitely will boost the the economic growth
so that should not both uh like like both well for the long end but at the same time if they boost the productivity that should help the long end. Tracy Chen portfolio manager over at brandy wine global have a wonderful weekend and just to reiterate oracle shares were already higher in
the session but now a moving two session highs up almost five percent here uh this on the back of a report bloomberg citing people familiar with the situation that oracle isn't talks with meta on a twenty billion dollar ai cloud computing dl kitty and you think about what this would mean
for the competitive landscape something we were talking about in the wake of oracle earnings last week but when it comes to cloud infrastructure they're up against amazon microsoft alphabets google but just again in the last few weeks it seems like it's been reset a little bit yeah it's been reset i guess i'm also fascinated by this to continue to spend i mean obviously meta has
twenty billion dollars in the couch cushions but it gets to this idea these companies continuing to sort of invest in this space uh you know whether there's going to be payoff or not who knows but at least for right now that continues it's a big part of the reason why we've had the rally over the last three years we're coming up on the three-year anniversary of the public release of
Carol Massar可能是由降息推動，可能是由人工智慧交易推動，或者是由所有這些因素推動。我不知道，但我們正在看到另一波創紀錄的收盤價。關注小型股的表現，有趣的是，週五通常被認為是市場開始放緩的日子，Tim和我之前說過，Bloomberg上有大約六則紅色頭條新聞。
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chat gpt a phenomenal week and we're going to break down all of today's price action when we come back when our global simulcast starts now the closing bell bloomberg's comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the u.s market close starts right now and right now we are two minutes away from
the end of the trading day romaine bostic here with katie gryphale taking you through to that closing bell with the global simulcast it starts now carol master tim sennevic in the radio booth welcome to our audiences across all of our bloomberg platforms including our partnership with youtube on what is a record setting week carol master may be fueled by rate cuts may be
fueled by the ai trade may be fueled by all of the above i don't know you're right but we're looking at what another bunch of record closes i think for three of the major averages watching what's going on with small caps you know it's funny so much for being a friday where we think things start to wind down tim and i was saying it was something like six redheads on the bloomberg
and just terms of just headlines and things happening carol make that seven seven active is said to consider sale of electrical distribution you know i don't know if you guys had time to hit that on your program before we we came in but that's kind of a record probably for news that has hit well during our program on a friday afternoon i won't point out that uh it
is a friday afternoon and we know that the friday news dump is a real thing as evidenced by this specific friday and we get to this idea here and when we start to talk about sort of what conditions are right the idea that financial conditions are loose and they're obviously
gotten looser given the rate cut and the rhetoric coming out at the fed next week a lot of those fed members are going to sort of make the rounds and really start to articulate why they voted the way they did and what they might vote for going forward we heard from cash cari earlier today and mary daley they seem to be on board with this cycle yeah it's it's really kind of fascinating
it really comes down to that you know we just had a guest on the Walter Todd over at Greenwood Capitol though concerns that what we're hearing in the economy though and that maybe he thinks financial markets equities are getting a little ahead of themselves all right let's take a look here at the closing bells in new york on this off friday afternoon as we close out the week
the Dow the s&p the Nasdaq all in the green kitty grifel and i think that counts as what did you call it a triple crown triple crown triple crown triple header whatever you wanted to be the Dow up more than a hundred about 172 points or four tenths of one percent the s&p up 30 points
or a half or percent the Nasdaq composite up seven tenths of one percent similar move higher for the Nasdaq 100 but here's where we start to get into trouble the Russell 2000 which had massive outperformance yesterday is your underperformer today down eight tenths of one percent Dow transports down two tenths of one percent we what'd you do remain come on we were so close
so close we were so close all right s&p 500 back to the big caps we go 211 names in the average higher today katie 290 to the downside to unchanged let's take a look at the sector level as illustrated by this circle you can see it's very green today and it's big tech once again this is
what we saw yesterday it's what we see on this friday really leading gains at the sector level up more than one percent utilities too though getting in on the action as to did communication services on the downside you do have four sectors in the red on this friday energy
leading losses off by 1.3 percent real estate consumer staples and health care also finishing the day lower carol a lot of green all right let's get to some of those individual gainers that got it there uh FedEx that stopped finishing off its best levels of the session still again of 2.3
percent the company reported better than expected adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter reinstated its full-year sales and profit outlook and that's really what got investors excited because remember when they had suspended it because they just weren't quite sure what was coming at them uh and this is all happening investors buying the stock because the company
still expects a one billion dollar hit from trade volatility this year due to president trumps terrace and the loss of a key exemption for low value goods gotta mention apple as well that went up about 3.2 percent did you get a new iphone today i did not i'm still happy with what
i've got i'm still getting used to that uh new louis at liquid glass or whatever the heck it is i don't worry for you all right well the iphone 17 pro pro max and iphone air have got on sale with the new phones attracting long lines at apple stores in various locations it is the first time i was
in that line today by the way so you were buying something no i was actually there for something completely unrelated to tim cook but i just happened to run into him i said hi did you live vibes yes seriously did you ask him anything i did not i did not get that close to him you have a lot of security around him okay yeah they're probably you yeah it's like these like the president
you gotta get a close to them you're like who are you all right moving along apple shares up 3.2 percent keep in mind um i think it was a mark urban pointing out first time since 2020 that apple has rolled out several new phone designs and a lot of new gear so people excited um this one courtesy of my lovely co-host tim stanaveck bright house financial yes thank you thank you
bhf is the ticker stock up 27 percent in today's session a consortium led by the insurer aquarium holdings in advanced talks to pay 65 to 70 per share for bright house financial this according to people in the know as the sales process for the annuity provider comes to a head uh so we'll see
bright house could decide as soon as next week to move forward or they could remain independent according to those people in the know and i'm just going to throw in oh sure sorry finley i didn't send this to you but oracle um a late pop on that redhead up uh about 4 percent here at the close company and talks with uh meta on a two billion dollar 20 billion dollar excuse me 20 billion
dollar ai cloud computing deal we know oracle has been on a tear when it comes to lining up uh ai cloud computing deal stocks up 85 percent here to date i'm done all right i want to get to some of the declineers today home builders taking a hit big part of that is because of lennard on
4.2 percent the company's forecast for quarterly home orders miss analyst estimates due to affordability concerns uh potential concerns about the job market as well uh lennard's results according to the company reflect both the continued pressures of today's housing market and the
consistency of lennard's operating strategy every single name in the uh s s 1500 home index the s and p 500 uh s and b 1500 excuse me home index was lower on the day today also watching the parent company of insta cart its ticker is c-a-r-t maple bear is the name down 8.6 percent this after
reports late today late yesterday rather that amazon has partnered with southeastern supermarket chain win dixie for grocery delivery in florida other grosser is also traded lower today including croger and albert sense as well and finally just watching what happened with intel today after
this week's uh record run uh intel shares fell after city group downgraded the stock to sell from neutral pointing to the company's rich valuation shares fell in the day today down 3.2 percent remember shares rallied 23 percent on thursday after a video agreed to invest five
billion dollars in the company and i just want to add an honorable mention on that stuff up i was taking a look at those shares remember they had the IPO on wednesday at uh on wednesday night excuse me at 2350 they've closed below that in every session since including today down another 10 percent some of that might actually have to do with some idiosyncratic issues uh excuse me some
issues coming out of washington with regards to uh uh some concerns uh about ticket master uh and their uh practices as well i was looking at pattern technology yeah which is another IPO today it was it initially opened down uh as much as 8.9 percent it ended up finishing the day higher by
9.6 percent but for a long time today i thought that was going to be another IPO that kind of stuttered out of the gate yeah i think uh we've had three this week actually that did not perform as well as some of the ones that we had in the previous week will be interesting to see what the read through is as we get into next week just a real quick check on yields here on a daily
basis not a whole lot of activity but the more notable move is what we saw on a weekly basis the first weekly decline uh that we've seen in yields across the board uh since mid august so despite the fact that you are seeing uh a little bit of a upswing in yields on the day we should point out
that the trend line has been to the downside as expected a lot of folks front run front ran that fed rate decision and at least it looks right now uh with regards to the latest CFDC data that people are still positioned for additional drop in yields all right something to certainly keep a watch on as we get into the new uh trading week having said that something we can maybe
i'll be a little bit happy about on this friday coffee futures uh we saw them uh definitely pull back in both new york and london this is on an improving supply outlook and traders keeping a close eye on tariff impact so uh futures for premium is it arabica am i saying it correctly
arabica is it arabica yeah it's arabica thank god for all of you guys that's one of those words i try not to say out loud i was like do i say do i not anyway fell as much as six and a half percent in new york and washington uh i should say the washington post reported that us lawmakers planned to introduce a bill to exempt coffee product imports from terra so this is something
好的，我實際上同意，但不要忘記，我希望看到短期利率應該在低3%左右，這將使其
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we're keeping a watch out certainly play into the inflationary picture i've been buying the same bag of five pound five pound coffee beans of course you make your own coffee since 2020 okay it has gone up in price from seventy five dollars to eighty dollars and then up to eighty five dollars
好的，我實際上同意，但不要忘記，我希望看到短期利率應該在低3%左右，這將使其
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something to me will not go down sorry seventy five dollars so somebody who doesn't drink coffee a seventy five dollars for five pounds five pounds no that's a pretty good deal okay that is a pretty good deal pretty good deal pretty good deal for single or fifty five dollars for dirt for dirt it's a pretty good deal have you guys never asked tim about his coffee process he doesn't drink
好的，我實際上同意，但不要忘記，我希望看到短期利率應該在低3%左右，這將使其
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coffee when he comes to work no just a one one one special moment at home oh he's one of those guys you have like you have like one of those really high-end italian like espresso machine you only have to buy that you wake everybody up in the house that's like every two months you buy a bag of coffee so i had no idea i always thought he was like you know easy peasy and down at earth
好的，我實際上同意，但不要忘記，我希望看到短期利率應該在低3%左右，這將使其
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no not when it comes to his coffee then you got to know me i did i did still love still love all right guys that's a wrap our cross-platform coverage radio tv youtube bloomberg originals have a good weekend everybody and of course katie and remain continuing there on the close and tim and i
continuing right here on bloomberg business week dealing we'll see again same time same place on monday and our coverage continues here on bloomberg television as we revert back to that breaking news just a little while ago on oracle the share is spiking into the close after bloomberg reported
signing people familiar with the situation that oracle is in talks with meta for a cloud computing deal that would be worth about twenty billion dollars bloomberg reporter broody for joins us right now uh who helped to break this story what do we know broody well larry ellison can't stop
winning that's what we know uh they posted one of the craziest spikes in bookings of all time last week they added three hundred fifty billion in business largely due to open ai and so people didn't take oracles cloud very seriously a couple years ago but we keep getting these data points
to show that they are winning these big ai deals that's the thing brody that's what romaine and i were talking about uh when this headline broke that you think about the competitive landscape when it comes to cloud infrastructure like you said intel or rather oracle wasn't mentioned
in the same breath as maybe amazon microsoft google for example but that has just started to change just in the last couple of weeks it feels like absolutely we're in an environment where nobody can get enough computing power for ai and oracle has been a company that's willing to
我們處在一個每個人都無法獲得足夠AI運算能力的環境中，而Oracle是一家願意接受交易的公司。
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say yes to deals and now the criticism could be is oracle saying yes to too many deals can it deliver on what it's been promising it's on the hook to give open ai enough computing power that's equivalent to two hoover dams and they have to do that in two years can they add another deal on
top of it to give meta twenty billion of compute they seem to think so and investors seem excited i am curious about it i mean there's been a lot of discussion as to why oracle specifically and that's not a disown oracle but it's really just the idea that is this that oracle
offers something that no one else offers or is this more about the perception that oracle is uh as if you will kind of the switzerland in the ai space right now they don't necessarily competing against uh some of their potential customers in the way uh that some of the hyperscalers might be the real factor is that people need computing power and oracle has the ability to give it to
them and they can give it to them because they are an insane cash cow business they have database and applications that we're printing you know tens of billions per year and a couple of years ago oracle made the smart bet that we're going to take our cash flow over here and invest it in our infrastructure over there and so when the ai boom came around they said well we have the teams
we have the people let's just hit the gas and so they've been willing to commit to some incredible timelines and yes part of it is that they're getting good chip allocation from invidia because invidia doesn't want every gpu to go to microsoft brodie forward breaking the news they're on oracle
in talks with meadow on a 20 billion dollar ai a deal and of course it's a nice capstone to a week which of course was led by big tech the fang index remember them up three percent on the week the mag seven up three percent on the week the philadelphia seppin conductor index up four
percent on the week and of course all of the major indices including the s&p nasdaq the dow and yes to the rustle two thousand also closing out with significant gains on the week michael kasper up bloomberg intelligence joins us right now for our factor friday and michael a big question here right now is what exactly rate cuts are going to mean for this rally not so
much just whether rate cuts themselves will goose stocks but if the fed is more focused on the job market and less on inflation should investors be worried about inflation eating into those gains yeah i'm not so worried about inflation eating into those gains if you bucket s&p 500 returns
over time into different inflation buckets so cpi a one and a half to three percent or so on you actually get a pretty favorable environment until inflation hits about three and a half four percent that's when the return starts to degrade so i think the fed is right in being a
little bit less concerned about inflation more concerned about the job market more concerned about manufacturing being weak of course ism pmis have been in attraction for some time and i really think that that's what they're running with and it is certainly not a bad environment for stocks of inflation is running a little bit hotter than the two percent target
what about for small calves we saw the rustle two thousand finally hit that all-time high yesterday on the news of that cut and the expectation that we're going to get more but false dawns of course we've seen this before when it comes to small caps is this time actually different
yeah so my model for the rustle two thousand was a little bit excited about the rustle back in three months ago when we updated it and the reason for that was the huge valuation expansion opportunity that there was in the rustle two thousand right so if you think about it
the way we frame our models consensus expectations for rates are a huge component of the valuation side of the model and even back then three months ago it was signaling that the rustle had upside to 2350 of course if we update that that today with lower rates and then so on in the model
you would get a significantly higher output so small caps extremely discounted to the s&p 500 extremely discounted to historical norms there's a lot of room to run on valuations for them okay well then should they be the biggest beneficiaries assuming uh you know we think we know what's going to happen that seems to be my thesis right so the cheapest stocks in the
好的，我實際上同意，但不要忘記，我希望看到短期利率應該在低3%左右，這將使其
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s&p 500 in the rustle two thousand might be the biggest beneficiary if you think about value and growth and the dynamic there value stocks being more sensitive to the economy growth stocks being a little bit more resilient because they're growth and they're in a growth cycle uh if you get rate cuts and valuations certainly do start to matter you get stuff like the yield
curve starts to steepen pmi start to come back as a result of the fed kind of boosting the economy then it's certainly a favorable backdrop for value stocks and in fact if you look at consensus fundamental estimates for the year ahead they were already predicting stuff outside of say s&p 500
tech starting to catch up to eps growth of tech which should be a favorable environment for some of these cheaper stocks all right michael really appreciate you taking the time on this friday afternoon that is michael kasper of bloomberg intelligence have a great weekend but stick with
us now because joining us on this big week in markets and the fed i'm pleased to say jeremy segal he is professor emeritus of finance at the warden school at the university of pennsylvania with us now professor fantastic to have you with us i want to start on the little
guys on the underloves parts of the market because what a week you saw four small caps four value stocks in the week of that fed decision and i'd love to hear your perspective on whether we are truly going to see a sustainable broadening of this rally well you know we've talked about
the broadening of the the rally for a year and and we get i mean we get a big surge and then it's like a head fake and then the the mag seven moves ahead again uh now rustle has certainly done
bettle rustle two thousand because the rate cuts are now at least a reality on stage one but uh you know at this particular juncture i don't see a significant break in the growth to value momentum that uh really has dominated the market you know except for the those few months
around when you know tariffs and and uh april and may uh it's been really straight upward of of ai relatively other stocks now again i think those the the time will come for those small and value stocks um i just um i i just have heard it so often for six for six months and you know and it went
to get excited two or three days of great outperformance and then look it just uh you know dies like a you know a dead plan on a vine so i i think we really need to see those those cups come in and really see those we need to see those value cups use ai to generate better margins right um and
you know it's and and really ai is not just for the ai stocks ai is supposed to be for the ordinary firm to enhance its productivity and uh you know when until we really see them doing that and i was hopeful that the tariffs might have pushed them to say all right now we really got to be
serious about that and maybe they will in the fourth quarter um but so far adoption has been relatively slow right yeah no and uh there was that mit study which we were discussing just earlier this program that really poured some cold water on all the enthusiasm that we're seeing behind
ai but just to focus a little bit more on the small caps you said that the time will come for most people what they need to see is uh a reliable fed rate cutting cycle if now isn't the time for small caps does that mean professor that you don't see us on the cups of an actual cycle of rate cuts
here well i i actually i actually do but i mean uh don't don't forget the uh i would like to see the i think the short term rate should be in the in the uh the low threes which would put it you
好的，我實際上同意，但不要忘記，我希望看到短期利率應該在低3%左右，這將使其
1:02:52
know nearly a hundred basis points below there and that it's really good for small caps i think that you know there was a lot of excitement when uh chairman pow did the pivot at uh you know in in um jacks and hole and i think that's really what doesn't and now we see yes he cut once
but the the committee is still split you know half of them don't really think another cut is necessary to have to think that they were going to have you know one cut per session yeah uh for the remainder there so i think that ambiguity has sort of taken a little of the bloom off the
rose a little bit of the reason why the 10 year is back above uh four ten um listen the time will come in the long run valuation and there's a lot of great valuations in those small caps really does out in the end but until that earnings momentum gets really going yeah um
right now the short term trend i think is is still with that ai and there's and there's also this idea too when we talk about value uh professor the idea of sort of uh what it looks like on a risk adjusted basis and you know we had dan niles from the niles management earlier and he kind of quipped about this idea that he thought that probably the best risk adjusted idea in
his view was just to buy the s&p as a whole and hope that you know the rate cuts actually boost the broader market but his point was that there was so much idiosyncratic risk out there and i am curious why take that risk if you don't have to yeah well that's what this and i'm an indexer that we would believe in broad diversification exactly why why take that risk you know by and
hold the index i mean i think it's probably one of the great insights of of of academic and professional research over the last 50 years now i don't blame anyone who you know takes 25 30 40 percent of their portfolio and tries to pick good individual stocks but overall if you want
that growth with the minimum of that idiosyncratic risk you know really you have to be an indexer to the market in one way or another where do we stand with investor sentiment professor because you know we talk about a record high yet i'm still looking at data today bank deposits near
record highs money markets near record highs the AIA survey showing that investor sentiment on an individual basis still tilting bearish yeah and and you know vix said at 15 certainly it's lower than the 20s or you know certainly the 30s we had during the the worst of the tariff days
but still you know usually when you get a complacent bull market it is in the very low teens and in you know before covid it got below 10 so i still think there is that risk premium out
there there isn't as much complacency not a lot of people are still waiting for the shoe to drop on the tariffs and by the way it isn't completely crazy to think well maybe it'll happen in October maybe we'll happen in christmas season but certainly it hasn't happened so far and by the way you know
we only have eight trading days left in uh you know in september so we got through the end of August and all of september at least so far you know seasonally the worst part of the year and all-time highs trifecta uh triple crown whatever you want to call it that that's the way we ended
this week so i mean you know what could be better than that yeah well we've been calling it a triple crown over on this desk professor we only have about a minute left but i do want to talk about the future of the fed and specifically the future of fed into pensions when we talk about
risk premiums one place you're not necessarily seeing a risk premium is in the bond market at the long end for when it comes to the question of who might be the fed chair come may 2026 i wonder how you think through that well because i really don't think there's a real serious threat i mean
all the choices for fed chair uh you know that i think i mean chris waller and kevin washing and even uh has it are excellent people um who value the independence of the federal reserve and and are very well versed in monetary theory of policy and i i think that's uh basically what
you want i mean if you want to know the truth i was very pleased but surprised i mean waller who was supposed to be you know one of the candidates for the head of the fed i thought oh he's gonna go one foot want to go 50 to show that he's got the you know uh the the trump uh imparameter
and the only one for 25 i was very surprised kevin has it said yeah i'm satisfied with 25 um uh you know in a way uh there was a rally around uh the chair and uh you know i heard uh Steve mirett speak and yes he went for 50 and you know he's a smart guy i mean he has a lot of
reasons for wanting to go down and he's actually said next week he's going to present some really other economic reasons why things to fed should move faster towards its neutral target all these people are are are good economists they're they're not just uh you know hacks that are going to do
the bidding of the president doesn't mean there isn't political influence the fed is a creature of congress not guaranteed by the constitution but nonetheless i think the people that are now you know heading to fed are being talked about to head the fed are very qualified individuals
professor we have to leave it there have a wonderful weekend chair misea thank you very much professor emeritus over a finance over at the warden school at the university of pennsylvania now coming up on the close the top three where we focus in on the top three movers and shakers at the centers of the day's biggest stories triple crown it's next this is the close
all right it's time now for the top three where we name drop the people driving some of the days most talked about stories and up first ray daleo the bridge water associates founder saying that us monetary order is at risk as the us is unable to cut back on runaway spending
quote other factors together will determine whether we're seeing the end of the entire equals empire pretty dire on this friday afternoon and we should point out a drum that he's been banging for quite some time i i think i've heard this before yeah in fairness to him he does actually sort of uh what he called show his receipts if you will if he's behind his thesis but
again obviously something a long time coming on a slightly uh less dour note uh free to call out remember her i do very famous they are an important of the artist is now going up for auction and what could actually be a record 60 million dollar sale this over at set the bees uh you know
i'm a big art geek so i'm really into this i don't have 60 million dollars but if i did uh you wouldn't be here first of all i might i love you and i love this job love of the game more than anything else yeah uh but there you can see that uh portrait there you like this tie it is nice i was thinking
that earlier i like the suit thank you you know who like the suit tell me bad bunny bad bunny he's third on the docket the music star reportedly being sued by an 84 year old man who's home was used in the stars short film and summer residency i have to admit i'm not read in on this story so i am i
love this is the kasita the famous kasita that he uses as a as a part of his stage show is at his residency at Puerto Rico but it's actually based on a real house that he featured in the video and now all of the stands including one of our producers are just flocking to this poor 80-year-old guy's
house wow he's just trying to live out his days in peace to get their little selfies and everything else with this house and now he's saying the bad bunny hey man hey pay up i know is that gonna help i don't know but i mean i'd feel a lot better if uh you know i had some money in my pocket so
very happy at the top three i will be back in a moment sick with us this is the clothes on Bloomberg well shares of oracles still rising in the afternoon hours after we got that late breaking
news in the trading day that they are in talks with meta for a cloud computing deal with about 20 billion dollars that is according to Bloomberg news reporting let's bring in Jonathan Levin he is a columnist with Bloomberg opinion so Jonathan i would love to hear your
reaction here we were talking about this with our reporter Brody Ford and in his words Larry Ellison just can't stop winning here yeah totally i mean i think from a macro standpoint it tells us a couple of things number one there's a lot of movement and shake and still going on in the
AI story i mean coming into this year everybody was talking about like when is the AI winter gonna start yada yada but companies are still out there very active in this space and the other thing you have to notice is like people weren't talking about oracle as a big AI play even just
a few months ago and it really just goes to show you like we understand that the AI narrative is going to be with us for a while but there's still a lot of movement going on in terms of what is the best way to play that on an individual stock basis i am curious so i mean there has been a
lot of talk and there was even a note out today by some of the strategists over at JP Morgan about the concerns about the AI trade Jonathan the idea that if we don't start to see the companies that are spending this money start to show the ROI in a meaningful way that that could maybe undercut the rally yeah i think that's you know it's definitely definitely a possibility but another
way that this could play out is you could see you know famously the phase one bets here Nividia go into a little bit of a cool off phase but it could soon move into other spaces of the market it could even move into spaces of the market that we haven't really talked about in the in the
past couple of years where maybe you know AI is just part of the product productivity story maybe it's just subtly helping companies in not necessarily tech sectors uh keep uh keep tabs on those margins and so forth and Jonathan of course we're keeping an eye on shares of oracle after hours
but i do actually want to go back to the bond market what we saw this week we finally got that 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed the expectation is that we're going to see more a lot of folks have been watching the long end given what we saw last september and the reaction from the 10 year
and 30 year part of the curve you write the bond market won't like these Fed rate cuts tell me why yeah i mean i think it's totally possible uh a speculative of course but totally possible that we've seen all the rally that we're going to see in like the the 10 year sector of the market
i think if you look deep into the dot plot of course the median dot said that we were going to get two more cuts here but really uh you see this bifurcation you see this bimodal uh distribution you see a whole big group of i i think six policy makers who didn't see the Fed doing anything else
for the rest of the year and you see another chunk of about nine policy makers who think that they will go through with the two cuts ultimately it all comes down to what happens in the labor
market softness we've all been watching those payrolls but if you look over at the ratios you really see a a different story you know 4.3 percent unemployment it's been creeping up a little bit but in earlier years and decades past we would have looked at 4.3 percent unemployment and said
好的，Jonathan Levin，彭博觀點的專欄作家，在這個仍然非凡的一週，以及在過去兩三年中，特別是在AI交易方面，確實是一個非凡的表現。Kitty Guy Grifield，我們看到一些老牌公司終於開始受到關注。
1:14:24
this is this is actually uh this is actually pretty good so you know is the labor market signal enough to to get uh folks going with inflation still running around 3 percent i don't know all right Jonathan Levin Bloomberg opinion columnist here on what has been still a phenomenal week and quite
frankly a phenomenal run over the last two to three years particularly when it comes to that ai trade kitty guy grifield and we saw some i guess old school names finally started to get a bid we've been talking a lot about oracle but intel had a great week as well yeah absolutely uh a fallen american icon now maybe uh still following but it's got five billion dollars in this
pocket yeah let's talk about some of the other notable movers on the week i love the attempted eloquence there yeah i said try i needed to knit that together a little bit better but in any case intel shares up 23 percent on the week micron shares also having a good week they did have a 12-day winning streak they fell a bit on this friday fading from their record high but still
12 days of gains adding up to three and a half i'm really fascinated by they actually report earnings uh next week i think what was it on tuesday or wednesday or something like that but i mean but all these memory chip makers have been like on fire as of late and i guess it's partly tied to this well you you got you need a lot of memory yeah big time lifting all boats oh we
had some other names up there we did including darden restaurants that's olive garden breadsticks salads week for the restaurants we're talking about cracker barrel uh of course darden owns olive garden which is a fan favorite one there once and uh i liked it what you have for lunch
today i'm so excited to tell you tuna tartar delicious some avocados anyway darden shares down 13 percent for the week and linar we end on another somber note uh linar the home builder it's fourth quarter new orders forecast missed estimates you add it all together down 7.3 percent
on the week and we should point out we are going to get more earnings next week out of kaby home that's next wednesday i won't be here but i'll be watching from me i hope so this is a close on bloomberg the united nations general assembly is going to kick off next week right here in new
york city the city bracing now for the eight-eighth session of the summit big priorities three key ones top of mind for organizers of course the reform agenda also selecting a new secretary general and of course a lot of questions right now about the u.n. sustainable development goals to talk a
little bit more about what's happens on that front as well as what's going on in ai we want to bring in dima ayaya secretary general of the digital cooperation organization which works with governments the private sector NGOs and more with the goal of achieving social prosperity by growing the digital economy great to see you dima thank you for having me we talk on the show
all the time about artificial intelligence but it's always through the lens of these big companies primarily us companies that are benefiting from that when i look at the rest of the world particularly outside the developed world i do wonder what they are benefiting from or contributing to this ai
spend that i would assume they don't necessarily have the same deep pockets that we have say here in the united states or in europe or in the middle east well exactly uh looking at last year alone 2024 300 billion dollars has been invested in ai but if you look it's just a number of countries
that have contributed to that investment in building their infrastructure and rather than narrowing the digital divide we're increasing that divide with ai looking at the connectivity divide as well 2.6 billion people are still not connected
how are they even going to benefit from such kind of amazing technology like ai and this is where on in the dco the digital cooperation organization we're really working on identifying the competitive advantage of each country and their ai readiness and seeing how can it be a solution for a challenge
to another country like for instance we see the gcc investing heavily in ai infrastructure but then you see a lot of brain power in other countries like Pakistan, Nigeria, Morocco, Jordan and this is where we come up with a governance
where all these countries can benefit from each other i'm glad you bring up the brain power because it's been brought up before that you have a lot of countries that do certainly have the brain power but they don't necessarily have the institution the corporate institutions and the money uh to actually fund it in the same way you have in the u.s is there a risk that some of those nations
without the money lose the brain power meaning those people end up going to the u.s or to europe or maybe even a china oh definitely and and that's why it was it's very important to create that stimulus business environment that can enrich that innovation in in the country and beyond
and this is where we're working on creating that um easy expansion between countries last year alone we supported 180 startups by expanding easily between member states and that's why easing doing business even registrations and also creating bank accounts so rather than having
fragmented licenses or policies and regulations for opening your own business we've unified all of that between our member states creating a bigger market which is up to 800 million people that can benefit from these technologies well to that point to the work that you're doing with
startups something that i wonder about is that when we talk about this connectivity problem what is the relationship between governments and the private sector in working together to solve that oh that's a great question um we truly believe that to narrow that divide it needs to
be a collective effort it needs to be a multi stakeholder approach we have to innovate in our ways of doing business uh uh even disrupting our triple p uh modules which is uh public private partnerships what we used to do before the other the the uh models in the past is not going to work
going forward and this is where we have to bring in financial institutions and new ways of uh investments as well not only in terms of private sector but also individuals can invest as well and bridging that connectivity gap we're going to need more than two trillion dollars to bridge
that gap yeah well if you had to put numbers to it two trillion dollars not enough what is the estimate do you think in terms of uh connectivity what do you you need to uh further that vision oh and not not only in terms of financials but also we do need to innovate and connectivity
itself now i'll give you an example when it comes to connecting or for instance the goal for a country like Saudi Arabia um at the end of the day the urban nature of Saudi Arabia is very easy where you have it's a desert at the end of the day where you look at Pakistan where the urban
nature is mostly stone uh mountains and therefore it takes triple the amount in capital to have that connectivity so it's not just about the the financials but also creating new innovations like satellite uh connectivity as well as other other ravines all right dima great to get some
time with you ahead of what's going to be a busy week that is dima allia she is secretary general of the digital corporation organization meanwhile president trump announcing progress towards finalizing a deal over tiktok after his call with chinese president g earlier today
he also added that the two would meet at the upcoming apex summit in what would be their first meeting since trump's return to office joining us now to discuss his co-host of loomburg's pounds of power joe matthew joe you think about the readouts from the call what we heard from the
trump administration what we heard from the chinese side uh there was some discordance there which is typical and the chinese got their headlines out before the president thing is we talk about a readout that used to be an official statement from the press office uh that would be
carefully vetted to give us a sense of what was discussed now we look at truth social this is just a social post by the president that we're working on here the meetings a big deal we thought that was going to be the case now we know that it will and when the president goes to china is something we're waiting to hear as far as the tiktok deal goes though we spent a lot of time reading
between the lines and in this case he referred to the progress made on very important issues including approval of the tiktok deal but it's not been approved and it seems that as the president describes this as progress we're really in not in any different space than we were when scott
besson uh was negotiating this in europe i will note that this is not the only thing that the president has on his mind today on the other end of pennsylvania avenue two attempts to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open past the end of this month failed that's a problem because lawmakers are leaving town they're not going to be back with uh only two days left
to try to solve this and i will tell you that it's looking more likely this evening that a government shutdown of an undetermined length is likely going to start at the beginning of october so joe can you for those folks who don't understand the process in washington so it explained this to me so the house passed something right so this is in the senate's lap right and
this is more or less right now is it about whether the democrats blocked this or whether there's enough votes on the republican side to move it forward uh listen they're both blaming each other right now there was a republican plan and a democratic plan that both went to the senate and both failed the house did pass the republican version it's a clean cr as they call it basically
extends the spending that we have now but democrats want to see an extension of obama care subsidies that expire at the end of the year this is the rub republicans are not on board they say it's a conversation and a debate for another day that they will only have 48 hours to figure
this out romaine when they come back and that is going to be a doozy it's unlikely they will succeed all right joe matthew you can catch him at the top of the hour as co-host of bloomberg's balance of power we'll be back in a moment here on the close stick with us all right it's friday and that means for a lot of folks it's time to unwind listen to music and
if that's the case for you you're gonna love our next guest john summit the internationally renowned dj and music producer he stopped by studio two a little bit earlier today just ahead of a big music festival here in new york and we talked a lot about making music of more importantly how to grow a business well the planning has been going on for months i mean just to get the
permitting to be able to throw a huge festival for 50 000 people in the city it's a lot of work i mean there has been an electronic music festival here for a couple years so the expectations are very high and to be able to find a bunch of vendors food vendors to work with sponsors to help make the event happen it's been a lot of time and energy but i think it's going to all pay off
and you i mean you obviously have done this for a long time right now you've played a lot of different venues and through uh your new venture with experts only you're also sort of uh i guess trying out different types of venues rather than just say an arena or a stadium talk about that so i did Madison Square Garden for the first time last year and then the options were maybe doing
that a couple more times this year but that doesn't really excite me too much i think i like to take things to the next level and especially with the record label i want to be able to put on other artists than just me i'm kind of bored of just doing the john summit show so be able to do experts only and like do something that's bigger than just myself i think it's pretty cool how are you
finding new artists are they coming to you or are you reaching out to them well i get like hundreds of demos a day yeah so i'm always trying to find new ones and then just scouring the internet and seeing like who's popping and what's new and what's fresh and what's unique so to be able to put on other artists i think is really cool now you you didn't necessarily start your career as a
DJ somebody told me you were a cpa is that true yeah so i worked for instant young for a couple years okay uh was always moonlighting as a DJ i would come into the office pretty sweet deprived yeah they're like did he do all night and i had to kind of hide the double life a little bit yeah so eventually i was able to go full time with the DJing yeah what was that transition like i mean
you were just making enough money where you thought it was sustainable as a as a business as a profession yeah so the goal was to save up enough money so i can go full time for at least six months and i knew that if i went full time as DJ for six months and ran out money i could always go back to the g or the counting world and i still had my cpa of course uh but luckily the music was able
to take off and i was able to kind of build my own business out of it well that's what i'm curious about is to how much that background uh in finance actually helped you build out a business and when we talk about DJs today i mean i'm from a generation where you know the business of DJing was a lot smaller and now it's a big business oh it's huge especially with the
touring and everything and then the costs are pretty low as well because i'm not touring with the full band it just me and my usb and all the venues already have the CEJs and every all the equipment set up yeah so but to be able to wisely invest my money and not kind of just spend it all i think was and then be able to invest in a team as well too so i mean just with the record label
i have a label manager you know radio pluggers marketing you know managers i work with as well agents it's a whole business so i think having that background knowledge really helped me take my career to the next level where do you put your your personal money right now in terms of
investing for the long term are you just putting that back into your own business or are you diversifying across different assets so i purchased a condo in Miami that i live in right now but i don't consider that like as a financial asset is it but i just uh you know invest in stocks i got financial advisors
who i very much trust yeah because it's very hard when i'm on the road every single day to come with the markets yeah and we just do a monthly call so i can stay in the loop but uh pretty much just traditional assets and you're on the road a lot i mean you're not really sitting in their office on a day basis like we are here so how do you manage that though i mean you are you are managing a
company yeah yet you are probably always in a different city or even different country not than where the people you're working with are you so i you think with the DJ lifestyle it's a lot of fun parties and all that non-stop but to be honest it's a lot of zoom calls yeah because it's five plus a day at least um so because we're all over the road at once i mean the managers i
work with they're out based out in Phoenix Toronto um agents are in LA New York the label is LA then uh then half the label is out in London as well too and that's where i do most of my songwriting so uh it's a very worldwide business but uh i think that means the business keeps going 24 seven which is good do you see that business expanding beyond just just recorded music and live
shows uh yes but that is kind of the bread and butter and especially being a fully independent touring business i think uh is the main revenue driver but uh and then the merch business is doing great right now as well too yeah you mentioned the economics of it obviously being a solo
act of solo DJ if you will obviously you don't have the same uh carrying costs uh taking a full bandwidth yes but there's still got to be a lot that goes into that yeah and i am curious about the economics of the business i mean when we talk about concerts and the success of concert tours everyone talks about the Taylor Swift's or Beyonce's of course they're gonna make money because they're
Taylor Swift Beyonce for those who aren't at that echelon yeah you know maybe a couple tears down do the economics still work for those types of people i think so because i mean when i was touring just clubs for example that was just me showing up playing leaving you just collect the check and then if you can travel responsibly and not do first class everywhere you know five
star hotel is you can make a good living but now um yeah it just what's tough is that the production cause costs are on me so i mean this first year festival we're not making any money but it's investment in the brand and the business and i'm trying to you know take this festival globally so i then i also have the shows like i said of vegas and stuff where i can just show up and play
and that's when uh the margins are very good and as far as like the fan experience and i guess more the stickiness of your customers for lack of a better phrase here you have that is that driven by your personality or is it driven by marketing what it's the fans are driven by combination
of things i think it's first and foremost is the music and they got to enjoy the music and love the music which is why i put a lot of time and effort into songwriting creating catchy songs but i think also being a hundred percent authentic online and really putting myself out there so they feel like they know the person behind it all um i think it's it's definitely a balance of it all
but i used to be very protective of doing videos of myself out there like i would never do something like this which is awesome but now i think uh it's really good to put myself out there that was john's summit dj producer and founder of experts only in conversation with romaine
我是一個非常支持言論自由的人，同時當你有網絡，比如在縣裡我想是2,600比525，這叫做壓倒性勝利
1:31:06
boston all right we do want to get you off some breaking news right now and go down to washington the president of the united states speaking in the oval office answering a wide variety of questions he did weigh in on the call earlier today with his chinese counterpart and specifically on the tiktok deal in trump's words he says the ji has approved the tiktok deal and he says that he looks
壓倒性勝利的兩倍，當你有這種水平
1:31:26
forward to getting it closed he also talks about the potential for a government shutdown and says quote we could end up with a government shutdown let's listen in to what else he has to say it's gonna be in a short while so i'll let you know about it tonight or tomorrow what's your take in general just well i don't love it i don't love it i don't like when that happens it could be
big trouble but i'll let you know later they're gonna brief me in about an hour and a follow up one charlie kirk has been a lot of talk about free speech this week um do you see a difference between cancel culture and consequence culture i i'm in your questions a little trick question
i'm a very strong person for free speech at the same time when you have networks that where i want an election like in counties i guess it's 2,600 to 525 that's called land side
