EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE OF THE END OF THE MARKET
DAY.
掌握市場收盤前所需的一切資訊。
00:14
THIS IS "THE CLOSE." >> THE FED STANDS PAT, THE VIX
PERKS UP, AND MARKETS ROLLOVER ONCE AGAIN.
這裡是由「收盤」節目。>> 聯準會按兵不動，VIX 指數上揚，市場再次反轉。
00:20
LIVE FROM STUDIO TO IN NEW YORK, I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK.
在紐約工作室現場，我是 Romaine Bostick。
00:27
>> WE ARE KICKING OUT TO THE
CLOSING BELL IN NEW YORK.
>> 我們即將迎來紐約的收盤鐘聲。
00:31
THE COLUMN HAS BEEN BROKEN.
趨勢已經被打破。
00:37
THE S&P 500 LOSING 2.8% AS
STOCKS DECLINE WITH THE U.S.
標準普爾 500 指數下跌 2.8%，股市隨美元一同走低。
00:38
DOLLAR. THEY TOOK A LEG LOWER WHEN THE POWELL HEADLINES HIT THE TAPE.
當鮑爾的頭條新聞出現時，他們進一步下跌。
00:44
YOU REALLY HAVE SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS LEADING THE DECLINE.
你真的看到半導體股票領跌。
00:48
PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX OFF BY ALMOST 6%.
費城半導體指數下跌近 6%。
00:51
ALL 30 MEMBERS ARE LOWER, LED BY NVIDIA.
所有 30 檔成分股均下跌，由輝達領跌。
00:54
YIELDS MOVING DOWN HERE WITH THE 10-YEAR OFF BY SIX BASIS
POINTS.
殖利率在此處走低，10 年期公債下跌 6 個基點。
01:02
THE DOLLAR RESUMES IT SELLOFF.
美元恢復跌勢。
01:03
A RESPITE YESTERDAY BUT MAKING FRESH SIX-MONTH LOWS.
昨日稍有喘息，但創下六個月新低。
01:07
ROMAINE:
THAT NUMBER AT THE TOP IS ASTONISHING.
ROMAINE:
01:12
TOP 10 DECLINERS AND A PERCENTAGE BASIS IN THE S&P,
SEVEN OF THEM ARE CHIP STOCKS.
標準普爾 500 指數跌幅前十名中，有七檔是晶片股。
01:18
WE CAME IN THIS MORNING WITH
U.S.
我們今天早上進場時，
01:19
STOCK STILL MIRED IN CORRECTION, THIS AFTERNOON
SINKING DEEPER.
美股仍處於修正區間，下午則進一步下跌。
01:28
THE AI TRADE COOLING AMID
CONCERN ABOUT TARIFFS, COMMENTARY OUT OF CHIPMAKERS.
人工智慧交易因關稅擔憂和晶片製造商的評論而降溫。
01:35
THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX STILL 30% BELOW ITS
ALL-TIME HIGH.
費城半導體指數仍較其歷史高點低 30%。
01:47
OVER AT THE WTO, THEY ACTUALLY
SLASH THEIR GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK FROM GROWTH TO
CONTRACTION BECAUSE OF TARIFFS.
在世界貿易組織那邊，他們實際上
01:54
NOW EXPECTS THE VOLUME I WORLD
MERCHANDISE TO FIND, ALMOST THREE PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER
THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WITHOUT THE U.S.
現在預期世界商品貿易量將
02:00
INSTIGATED TRADE WAR.
思考一下情況可能更糟。
02:02
THINK COULD BE EVEN WORSE.
如果美國
02:03
A CONTRACTION OF 1.5%, IF THE
U.S.
推行高額互惠關稅，萎縮幅度可能達到 1.5%。
02:06
PUSHES AHEAD WITH A HIGH RECIPROCAL TARIFFS.
暫時別指望聯準會出手相助。
02:10
DON'T LOOK FOR ANY HELP FROM THE FED JUST YET.
在有更多明確資訊之前，有充分理由將利率維持在目前
02:13
THERE IS GOOD REASON TO HOLD INTEREST RATES AT CURRENT
LEVELS UNTIL THERE IS MORE CLARITY.
傑洛威爾的一場演講也提出了按兵不動的理由，
02:19
WELL JAY POWELL A SPEECH ALSO MADE A CASE FOR STANDING PAT,
HE DID ACKNOWLEDGE THAT A WEAKENING ECONOMY AND ELEVATED
INFLATION COULD EVENTUALLY
可能會讓央行的雙重
02:29
BRING THE CENTRAL BANK'S DUAL
MANDATE INTO CONFLICT.
>> 我們可能會發現自己處於一個
02:35
>> WE MAY FIND OURSELVES IN A
CHALLENGING SCENARIO IN WHICH OWN DOMAIN THERE GOES INTENTION.
如果那種情況發生，我們將考慮經濟距離目標有多遠，
02:38
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, WE WOULD CONSIDER HOW FAR THE ECONOMY IS
FOR MUTUAL AND THE POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT TIME HORIZONS OVER
WHICH OF THOSE RESPECTIVE GAPS
將在哪些不同的時間範圍內縮小。
02:47
WOULD BE ANTICIPATED TO CLOSE.
史嘉蕾：麥可麥基正在芝加哥經濟俱樂部現場，
02:51
SCARLET: MICHAEL MCKEE IS LIVE AT THE
ECONOMIC CLUB OF CHICAGO WHERE JAY POWELL JUST FINISHED
SPEAKING.
我們看到傑洛威爾引用了布勒的話，
02:57
WE SAW THAT JAY POWELL REFERENCED THERE IS BUEHLER
WHEN HE SAID LIFE MOVES PRETTY FAST, BUT THEN HE ADDED QUICKLY
THAT THE FED IS IN NO HURRY TO
在利率方面
03:06
DO MUCH WHEN IT COMES TO
INTEREST RATES.
麥克：我想這就是重點。
03:09
MIKE: I THINK THAT IS THE TAKE AWAY.
傑洛威爾今天沒有發表任何新論點，但他提醒了
03:12
JAY POWELL DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING NEW TODAY BUT HE REMINDED
MARKETS OF WHAT THEY ARE AFRAID OF, TARIFFS ARE BIGGER THAN
EXPECTED, SO INFLATION AND
失業率將比預期
03:21
UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED.
如果那樣的話，沒人知道哪個會先上升，或者幅度會有多大。
03:23
IF THAT DOESN'T KNOW WHICH ONE
WILL GO UP FIRST OR HOW FAR.
以及預期這兩個差距
03:30
THE BEST THING FOR THEM TO DO
RIGHT NOW IS SIT AND WAIT AND TRY TO DETERMINE WHAT IS
HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY AS BEST THEY CAN.
他們目前能做的最好的事
03:35
NOBODY KNOWS WHERE THE TARIFFS WILL COME OUT.
沒人知道關稅最終會如何發展。
03:39
HE SAID IT IS VERY HARD TO MODEL, SO WE WILL DO OUR BEST
TO FIGURE IT OUT AND WAIT UNTIL THEN.
他說這很難建模，所以我們會盡力
03:45
BECAUSE POLICY IS IN A GOOD PLACE NOW.
因為目前政策處於良好的狀態。
03:49
ROMAINE:
HE TALKED ABOUT THE IDEA, WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE DUAL
MANDATE, INFLATION SIDE, LABOR MARKET SIDE, THIS IDEA THAT
BECAUSE OF THAT UNCERTAINTY,
ROMAINE:
04:00
THEY MAY HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS
IDEA THAT ONE WILL NOT BE COMPATIBLE WITH THE OTHER.
他們可能必須解決這個問題，
04:06
MIKE:
YES, THEY ARE CONCERNED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE
STAGFLATION ISSUE.
MIKE:
04:15
NOT THE FIRST TIME HE SAID IT
BUT HE EMPHASIZED IT TODAY.
這不是他第一次這樣說，
04:19
WHAT THEY ARE PLANNING ON DOING
IS LOOKING AT HOW FAR EITHER ONE, UNEMPLOYMENT OR INFLATION,
IS FROM WHERE THEY THINK IT SHOULD BE, AND THEY WILL ATTACK
THE ONE THAT IS FARTHEST AWAY,
他們計劃要做的是
04:29
THE ONE THAT WILL TAKE LONGER
TO COME BACK.
也就是需要更長時間
04:32
THEY HOPE THEY DON'T GET THEIR.
他們希望不會走到那一步。
04:34
AS YOU PUT IT, IT WOULD BE A VERY DIFFICULT JUDGMENT TO MAKE.
如你所言，這將是一個非常困難的判斷。
04:39
ROMAINE: MICHAEL MCKEE IN CHICAGO.
ROMAINE: 芝加哥的 MICHAEL MCKEE。
04:43
GREAT INTERVIEW EARLIER TODAY.
稍早的訪談非常精彩。
04:47
FOR THE RECORD, I WANT TO POINT
OUT.
為了記錄，我想指出。
04:50
FERRIS BUEHLER ACTUALLY BORN IN
GERMANY.
FERRIS BUEHLER 其實出生於
04:54
I AM WAITING FOR THE COPYRIGHT
TO EXPIRE SO I CAN WRITE THE ULTIMATE FAN PIC.
我在等待版權過期，
04:57
HE TECHNICALLY LIVED IN THE SUBURBS.
嚴格來說他住在郊區。
04:59
GERMAN-BORN.
德國出生。
05:00
KAREN MURPHY JOINS US NOW,
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT KESTRA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT.
KAREN MURPHY 現在加入我們，
05:09
I DON'T KNOW IF YOU HAD A CHANCE TO HEAR WHAT JAY POWELL
HAD TO SAY TODAY.
我不確定你是否有機會聽到傑伊・鮑爾今天說了些什麼。
05:16
IF YOU DIDN'T, DON'T WORRY,
BECAUSE HE SAID IT BEFORE.
如果你沒聽到，別擔心，因為他以前就說過了。
05:21
IT RAISES THE IDEA OF WHETHER
THE MARKET SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR ANY HELP OF MONETARY POLICY
ANYTIME SOON.
這引發了一個想法：市場是否應該在近期尋求貨幣政策的任何協助。
05:27
KARA: I DID LISTEN TO THE COMMENTS.
卡拉：我確實聽了這些評論。
05:28
THE MESSAGE WE SHOULD TAKE AWAY FROM THIS IS THAT THE FED IS
NOT COMING TO THE RESCUE.
我們應該從中得到的訊息是，聯準會不會出手相救。
05:35
STAGFLATION WAS WRITTEN ALL
OVER POWELL'S COMMENTS EVEN THOUGH HE DIDN'T USE THE TERM
SPECIFICALLY, HE WAS CLEARLY LAYING OUT A POSSIBLE MACRO
ECONOMIC SCENARIO WHERE WE SAW
WHAT HE SAID, WHAT I HEARD, WE
ARE GOING TO TAKE OUR TIME, WE ARE GOING TO LET THESE THINGS
PLAY OUT.
他所說的，也就是我聽到的，是我們會慢慢來，我們會讓這些事情自然發展。
05:54
THERE IS A LOT OF WEIGHING IN
TERMS OF THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE IMPACTS, AND
THE FED WILL NOT CHANGE POLICY ANYTIME SOON.
在影響的幅度和持續時間方面有很多需要權衡之處，而且聯準會近期不會改變政策。
06:00
THIS IDEA THAT THE FED WILL SAVE US FROM THIS POLICY
UNCERTAINTY, JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
認為聯準會會把我們從這場政策不確定性中拯救出來的想法，是不可能發生的。
06:06
ROMAINE:
AS AN INVESTOR, HOW DO YOU POSITION YOURSELF?
羅曼：身為投資人，你該如何佈局？
06:11
IF YOU ARE OF THE BELIEF THAT THESE POLICIES WILL BE
ECONOMICALLY DAMAGING, AND YOU ARE ALSO OF THE BELIEF THAT IT
WILL NOT BE DAMAGING FOR THE
如果你相信這些政策會對經濟造成損害，同時你也相信
06:21
FED TO RIDE TO THE RESCUE,
WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE YOU AS AN INVESTOR?
聯準會出手相救對它自身不會有損害，那麼身為投資人，你該何去何從？
06:23
KARA:
YOU APPROACH IT VERY CAREFULLY.
卡拉：你要非常謹慎地處理。
06:30
WE ENTERED THE YEAR THINKING
ABOUT MOSTLY TWO PARTICULAR RISKS.
我們今年初入場時，主要考慮兩大特定風險。
06:31
ONE THAT WE HAD PRETTY HIGH VALUATIONS IN THE MARKET
ESPECIALLY IN THE MAG SEVEN, SUPER HIGH CONCENTRATIONS WITH
THOSE NAMES.
一是市場估值相當高，特別是在「科技七巨頭」，這些股票的集中度非常高。
06:43
IT WAS VERY CLEAR FROM THE
BEGINNING THAT WE WOULD HAVE A LOT OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY
HEADING INTO THIS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.
很一開始就很清楚，進入川普政府時期，我們將面臨大量的政策不確定性。
06:47
THOSE TWO THINGS TOGETHER ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
這兩點加在一起，就是我們今天看到的情況。
06:51
IT IS NOT JUST THE POLICY UNCERTAINTY BUT YOU ALSO HAD
HIGHER EXPECTATIONS FOR CERTAIN AREAS OF THE MARKET.
不僅是政策不確定性，你還得面對某些市場領域更高的預期。
06:57
THOSE ARE THE RISKS.
這些就是風險所在。
07:01
THE GOOD SIDE OF THIS, WE ARE
SEEING THE MARKET IS DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN THE
NAMES WHERE THE EXPECTATIONS WERE REALLY HIGH, AND ARE THE
AREAS THAT WERE LEFT BEHIND,
這件事的好處在於，我們看到市場正在區分對那些預期過高的個股，以及那些被遺落的板塊，
07:08
EXPECTATION IS SO HIGH.
預期實在太高了。
07:11
DON PERFORMING OK.
道瓊斯表現尚可。
07:15
WE HAVE SEEN VALUE PERFORM OK.
我們看到價值股表現尚可。
07:18
NON-US IS PERFORMING OK.
非美國市場表現尚可。
07:21
HAVING DIVERSIFICATION, HAVING
EXPOSURE IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF ASSET CLASSES IS EXACTLY WHAT
YOU NEED IN ORDER TO GET THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
UNCERTAINTY.
擁有多元化配置，持有不同類型的資產類別曝險，正是你度過這段不確定時期所需要的。
07:29
SCARLET: IT ALSO HELPS THAT MOST OF THE
TURMOIL SEEMS TO HAVE SUBSIDED FOR NOW, PERHAPS WE HAVE HIT
BOTTOM, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU
SCARLET：這也有幫助，因為大部分的動盪似乎暫時平息了，或許我們已經觸底，特別是當你
07:37
LOOK AT THE KNEE-JERK REACTION
TO PADDLE'S COMMENTS TODAY.
看到今天對波克夏（Paddle）言論的膝跳反應時。
07:42
10-YEAR TAKING A LEG DOWN,
PRICES BUMPING ALONG THEIR LOWS.
10年期國債殖利率再次下滑，價格在低點徘徊。
07:47
HOW MUCH OF A RELIEF IS IT TO
HAVE THE FAMILIAR RISK OFF DYNAMIC AS OPPOSED TO
EVERYTHING DECLINING, STOCKS, BONDS, THE DOLLAR, LIKE WE DID
LAST WEEK?
KARA: ANYTIME YOU CAN SEE THE RANGE
OF OUTCOMES START TO BE NARROWED A LITTLE BIT, IT'S
GOOD FOR THE MARKETS.
KARA：每當你看到結果的範圍開始收窄一點，對市場來說都是好事。
08:05
THE MARKETS HATE UNCERTAINTY
MORE THAN ANYTHING.
市場最痛恨的就是不確定性。
08:07
WE KNOW WE ARE NOT GOING BACK
TO THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH NO TARIFFS.
我們知道我們不會回到沒有關稅的環境。
08:11
WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREMELY PUNITIVE TARIFFS
AGAINST ALL OF OUR TRADING PARTNERS IS NOW OFF THE TABLE.
我們認為這種對所有貿易夥伴實施極具懲罰性關稅的環境現在已經被排除在外了。
08:15
WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT HOW THE FED WILL APPROACH THIS.
我們已經聽說聯準會將如何應對這一切。
08:18
EVERY PIECE OF INFORMATION YOU HOPE IS NARROWING THE OUTCOME.
你希望每一條資訊都能讓結果更加收窄。
08:23
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT CERTAIN ABOUT WHAT POLICY IS, AT LEAST
SOME OF THOSE TALES ARE OFF THE TABLE.
儘管我們不確定政策具體是什麼，但至少某些可能性已經被排除了。
08:30
EVERY WEEK TO GO THROUGH HERE, WE SEE A NARROWING OF THOSE
OUTCOMES WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR THE MARKET.
每週在這裡度過，我們都看到這些結果正在收窄，這應該能為市場提供支撐。
08:38
SCARLET: I THINK ABOUT WHAT UNITED DID
YESTERDAY, OFFERING DUAL FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.
SCARLET：我想到了聯合航空（United）昨天的舉動，他們對明年提出了雙重預測。
08:43
ONE IN WHAT IT EXPECTS, ONE IN A RECESSIONARY ENVIRONMENT.
一個是基於他們的預期，另一個則是基於衰退環境。
08:48
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THAT HAS CREATED A TEMPLATE FOR
OTHER COMPANIES TO DO THE SAME?
您認為這在多大程度上為其他公司樹立了可遵循的範本？
08:55
IT PROVIDES TRANSPARENCY IN A
WAY THAT WE WERE NOT GETTING FROM COMPANIES.
這以一種我們過去從公司那裡得不到的方式提供了透明度。
08:56
KARA:
I THINK IT'S A VERY HELPFUL APPROACH.
KARA：我認為這是一個非常有幫助的做法。
09:00
YOU TAKE OUT SOME OF THESE EXTREMELY OWNERS SCENARIOS,
EVEN IN A RECESSIONARY SCENARIO, PEOPLE NOT AS LONG AS
MUCH IS EXPECTED.
即使在衰退情境中，您也能排除某些極端的所有者情境，人們的表現不會像預期的那麼糟糕。
09:12
I CAN COUNT ON THE IDEA THAT
THIS IS WHAT THE COMPANY EXPECTS TO EARN.
我可以依賴這個概念，即這就是公司預期的收益。
09:15
IF THE COMPANY CAN MAP OUT THOSE DIFFERENT PATHS, IT MAKES
IT EASIER FOR AN INVESTOR LIKE MYSELF TO PREDICT THOSE
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES AND TO BUILD
如果公司能勾勒出這些不同的路徑，就能讓像我這樣的投資者更容易預測這些不同的結果，並建立
09:25
A PLAYBOOK FOR DIFFERENT MACRO
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTS.
一套因應不同宏觀經濟環境的行動手冊。
09:29
I WOULD THINK THAT WE START TO
HEAR MORE CEOS TAKE A LEAD FROM THEM AND PROVIDE MULTIPLE
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
我認為我們將開始聽到更多 CEO 以此為榜樣，並提供多種不同的情境。
09:36
ROMAINE: AS WE GET DEEPER INTO EARNINGS
SEASON HERE, I UNDERSTAND FOR THE CEOS THIS WOULD BE A TOUGH
JOB, BUT DO YOU NEED THAT
ROMAINE：隨著我們更深入財報季，我知道對 CEO 來說這會是一項艱鉅的工作，但您需要
09:42
RATIFICATION FROM THEM?
他們的這種確認嗎？
09:43
WE KIND OF ALREADY KNOW THAT THEY CANNOT FORECAST THE FUTURE.
我們大概已經知道他們無法預測未來。
09:46
DO YOU NEED TO HEAR THEM ARTICULATE THAT?
您需要聽他們明確說出來嗎？
09:50
KARA:
FOR SOME OF THESE COMPANIES WE EXPECT TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY
TARIFFS, WHERE THEY HAVE CERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE
OUTCOMES CAN BE HELPFUL.
KARA：對於那些我們預期受關稅影響最大的公司來說，如果他們能對結果有確定性，那會很有幫助。
10:00
NOT EVERY COMPANY NEEDS TO
PROVIDE THIS TYPE OF GUIDANCE, BUT FOR ONES WHERE CEOS CAN
SEE, WE CAN OPERATE AND BE PROFITABLE IN A VERY ONEROUS
TARIFF ENVIRONMENT, IT CAN ONLY
不是每家公司都需要提供這類指引，但對於那些 CEO 能看到、我們可以在非常嚴苛的關稅環境中運營並保持盈利的公司來說，向
10:11
BE HELPFUL TO PROVIDE THAT TO
INVESTORS.
投資者提供這些資訊只有好處。
10:14
NOT EVERYONE WILL DO THAT, NOT
EVERYONE HAS TO.
不是每個人都會這樣做，也沒必要每個人都做。
10:19
ROMAINE: KARA MURPHY, CHIEF INVESTMENT
OFFICER OVER AT KESTRA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, KICKING
US OFF ON "THE CLOSE ."
ROMAINE：Kestra 投資管理公司的首席投資長 Kara Murphy，為我們的「The Close」拉開序幕。
10:28
GOLD RIGHT AROUND SESSION HIGHS.
黃金價格徘徊在盤中高點。
10:30
DISCUSSION ON HOW THIS IMPACTS THE GUYS GOING AFTER THE GOLD.
關於這如何影響那些追逐黃金的人的討論。
10:35
THE CEO OF COEUR MINING WILL BE JOINING US AFTER THE BREAK.
Coeur Mining 的執行長將在廣告後加入我們的討論。
10:54
SCARLET:
GOLD SITTING IN ANOTHER RECORD TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO
OUTPERFORM IS CHEAPER PURE SILVER.
SCARLET:
11:02
BUT MIKE MCGLONE THINKS IT COULD BE A WORRYING SIGN.
但 MIKE MCGLONE 認為這可能是一個令人擔憂的訊號。
11:08
THIS COULD SIGNAL A TURN FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AS THE GOLD
TO SILVER RATIO REACHES THE 100 MILESTONE.
隨著金銀比達到 100 的里程碑，這可能預示著全球經濟的轉折點。
11:14
WITH WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE GUY THAT ACTUALLY MINED THE
METALS, MITCHELL KREBS, CEO OF COEUR MINING.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE PRICE OF
GOLD WHICH HAS GIVEN ITS RECENT RUN-UP COMP HAS $33 AN OUNCE,
WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT THE STATE OF THE WORLD, WHAT
PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THE STATE OF
當您觀察黃金價格，它最近上漲了 33 美元每盎司，這告訴您世界狀況如何？人們如何看待世界狀況？
11:37
THE WORLD?
世界的狀況？
11:39
MITCHELL:
THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
MITCHELL:
11:43
I NEVER THOUGHT I WOULD SEE
GOLD ABOUT $3000 AN OUNCE.
我從未想過我會看到黃金達到 3000 美元每盎司。
11:48
TO ME WHAT IT SAYS IS ONE WORD,
UNCERTAINTY.
對我來說，這只說明了一個詞，不確定性。
11:52
THIS REALLY STARTED IN EARNEST
BACK IN 2022, WHEN RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE, YOU STARTED TO
SEE CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD START TO DIVERSIFY THEIR
RESERVE HOLDINGS AWAY FROM THE
DOLLAR. GOLD HAS REALLY CAUGHT A BID
SINCE THEN AND HAS GAINED MOMENTUM.
從那時起，黃金確實獲得了買盤支撐，並持續積累動能。
12:11
INVESTORS ARE STARTING TO JOIN THE PARTY AS THEY LOOK AT
TARIFFS, INFLATIONARY IMPACTS POTENTIALLY OF THAT, OVER ON
UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE WORLD.
投資者也開始加入這波熱潮，因為他們看到了關稅、潛在的通膨影響，以及全球各地的不確定性。
12:20
THERE IS RISK EVERYWHERE.
風險無所不在。
12:22
PEOPLE IN THOSE TIMES TEND TO TURN TO GOLD.
在這種時期，人們傾向於轉向黃金。
12:26
YOU HAVE ALL OF THESE THINGS LINED UP AT THE CENTRAL BANK
LEVEL, INVESTOR LEVEL, AND IT SEEMS LIKE WE ARE HITTING A NEW
ALL-TIME HIGH IN GOLD EVERY DAY.
在央行層級和投資者層級，所有這些因素都已到位，我們似乎每天都在創下黃金的新歷史高點。
12:36
SCARLET: YOU MENTIONED TARIFFS.
SCARLET: 您提到了關稅。
12:39
WE KNOW THE WHITE HOUSE HAS EXEMPTED SEVERAL METALS
INCLUDING GOLD AND SILVER FROM RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, YET IT ALSO
BEGUN INVESTIGATION THAT COULD
SCARLET:
YOU MENTIONED THE MIND THAT YOU HAVE IN NORTHERN NEVADA FOR
SILVER.
SCARLET：
16:48
YOU ALSO OWN A ZINC, LEAD
PROJECT IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
您在卑詩省還擁有一個鋅鉛項目。
16:54
IT GIVES YOU SOME FLEXIBILITY.
這給了你一些彈性。
16:55
WHAT WOULD BE THE CATALYST TO SWITCH ON PRODUCTION THERE?
啟動當地生產的催化劑會是什麼？
17:00
MITCHELL: WE WOULD NEED TIME TO DRILL IT,
PUT IT THROUGH THE STUDIES THAT HE NEEDS TO GO THROUGH, AND
THEN SOME PERMITTING.
MITCHELL: 我們需要時間進行鑽探，
17:06
GLAD THAT YOU BROUGHT THAT UP.
很高興你提到這一點。
17:09
IT IS THE POSTER CHILD OF THESE CRITICAL MINERAL DEPOSITS,
PROJECTS THAT COMPANIES ARE STARTING TO FOCUS ON.
這是這些關鍵礦床的典型案例，
17:17
THE WORLD IS WAKING UP TO HOW STRATEGIC THESE CRITICAL
MINERALS REALLY ARE, THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF OUR MODERN
ECONOMY.
世界正逐漸意識到這些關鍵礦物的戰略地位有多重要，
17:24
IN THE CASE OF SILVER TIP, WE
HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITTING THERE.
就 Silver Tip 這個案子而言，
17:28
I WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT WITH
SOME OF THE SUPPORT THAT WE ARE SEEING FROM GOVERNMENTS LIKE
THE ONE IN CANADA, HERE IN THE U.S., THAT SILVER TIP AT THESE
ELEVATED PRICES COULD BE MOVED
我認為，有了像加拿大政府以及美國這邊政府的一些支持，
17:41
ALONG A BIT FASTER AND BECOME
ANOTHER NORTH AMERICAN SOURCE OF PRODUCTION FOR US.
能夠推進得更快一些，
17:45
IN THAT CASE, IT WOULD BE MORE SILVER, ZINC, LEAD.
如果那樣的話，產量會更多是白銀、鋅和鉛。
17:48
FOR US, IT IS MOSTLY ABOUT THE SILVER.
對我們來說，最主要的還是白銀。
17:50
THAT WOULD TAKE POWER OVER OUR PRODUCTION UP INTO A PRETTY
DOMINANT PLACE GLOBALLY.
這將使我們的產量在全球佔據相當主導的地位。
17:55
ROMAINE:
WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE.
ROMAINE:
18:01
MITCHELL KREBS, CEO OF COEUR
MINING, ON A DAY THAT WE SEE GOLD AT RECORD HIGHS.
Coeur Mining 執行長 MITCHELL KREBS，在金價創下歷史新高的這一天。
18:04
SILVER JUST A COUPLE POINTS AWAY FROM RECLAIMING ITS RECORD
HIGH AS WELL.
白銀也只差幾點就能重回歷史高點。
18:11
WHEN WE COME BACK, A REFOCUS ON
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE EQUITY SPACE, MASSIVE DROP DOWN IN THE
CHIP SECTOR.
回來後，我們將重新關注股市的狀況，晶片類股出現大幅下跌。
18:20
NVIDIA DOWN ABOUT 10%, THE
WORST DAY SINCE JANUARY.
NVIDIA 下跌約 10%，是自一月以來最糟糕的一天。
18:38
ROMAINE:
LET'S GET A VIEW FROM THE SELL SIDE, TOP CALLS.
ROMAINE:
18:46
WE START OFF TODAY WITH TARGET.
我們今天從 Target 開始。
18:47
GOLDMAN SACHS DOWNGRADING THE RETAILER TO NEUTRAL, LOWERING
THE PRICE TARGET BY MORE THAN $40 TO $101.
高盛將這家零售商的評級下調至中立，並將目標價下調超過 40 美元至 101 美元。
18:57
TARIFF UNCERTAINTY TAKING A
TOLL ON CONSUMER SENTIMENT WHICH WILL FURTHER DELAY A
RECOVERY AND GROWTH FOR DISCRETIONARY SALES CATEGORIES.
關稅不確定性正打擊消費者信心，這將進一步延緩非必需消費品銷售類別的復甦與增長。
19:03
SHARE DOWN ABOUT 2.5% JP MORGAN DOWNGRADING U.S.
股價下跌約 2.5%，摩根大通下調美國鋼鐵評級至中立。
19:07
STEEL TO NEUTRAL.
美國鋼鐵評級至中立。
19:09
THE FIRM EXPECTING U.S.
該公司預期美國鋼鐵將遭受打擊，因為關稅不確定性削弱需求，尤其是在汽車產業。
19:10
STEEL TO TAKE A HIT AS TARIFF UNCERTAINTY SOFTENS DEMAND
ESPECIALLY IN THE AUTO SECTOR.
洛克希德·馬丁，摩根士丹利給予升級評級。
19:17
LOCKHEED MARTIN, UPGRADE AT
MORGAN STANLEY.
此次升級指出該公司所處的產業環境正在改善。
19:20
UPGRADES POINT TO AND IMPROVING
SECTOR BACKDROP FOR THE COMPANY.
IT RAISES THE QUESTION TOO, I
MEAN, WE HAVEN’T SEEN OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF DEAL MAKING ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN SOME OF THE EXPECTATIONS COMING INTO THIS
YEAR AND COMING INTO THIS
這也引發一個問題，我是說，我們顯然沒看到太多交易活動，
23:38
ADMINISTRATION.
種種預期。
23:39
BUT THERE ARE PEOPLE SORT OF SNIFFING AROUND FOR BARGAINS.
但確實有人正在尋找低價機會。
23:43
I’M NOT SURE WHAT THE ORIGIN OF LYFIA WAS.
我不清楚 Lyfia 的背景。
23:46
THEY DID $8 BILLION IN DEALS JUST LAST WEEK ALONE.
僅上週他們就完成了 80 億美元的交易。
23:49
SO THERE ARE BARGAINS OUT THERE IF YOU HAVE THE CASH AND YOU’RE
READY TO GO.
所以如果你手頭有現金且準備好出手，低價機會確實存在。
23:53
SCARLET: AND I GUESS THIS IS AS GOOD A
DAY AS ANY IN TERMS OF THE STABLE MARKET CONDITIONS.
SCARLET：我想就市場環境穩定度而言，今天算是個好時機。
23:57
BECAUSE YOU HAVE A REGULAR KIND OF RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT RIGHT
NOW.
因為目前整體屬於避險（risk-off）的常態環境。
24:00
FOR MORE ON THAT SPACE, WE WANT
TO BRING IN MICHAL KATZ.
想更深入了解這個領域，我們請來 MICHAL KATZ。
24:09
IT’S NO SECRET THAT M&A HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN 2025.
眾所周知，2025 年 M&A 活動起步緩慢。
24:14
GIVE US A SENSE HOW YOU WOULD CHARACTERIZE THE ACTIVITY THAT
IS TAKING PLACE.
請談談您如何描述目前實際發生的交易活動。
24:18
WHAT KIND OF CONVERSATIONS ARE
COMPANIES HAVING RIGHT NOW?
當前企業正在進行哪些類型的對話？
24:21
>> WELL, THANKS SO MUCH FOR
HAVING ME.
>> 非常感謝您的邀請。
24:25
I’D SAY THAT COMING INTO 2025,
EXPECTATIONS WERE HIGH THAT THE PRO-GROWTH, PRO-BUSINESS
ADMINISTRATION WOULD ACTUALLY CATALYZE BOTH CAPITAL MARKETS
AND DEAL MAKING ACTIVITY IN M&A
AND CLEARLY SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY WE’VE SEEN HAS SHAKEN THAT CONFIDENCE WHICH
VERY MUCH UNDERPINS WHAT DEAL MAKING IS.
顯然，我們所看到的一些不確定性動搖了這種信心，而這種信心正是交易活動的重要支撐。
24:41
BUT I’LL MAKE A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS AS WE THINK ABOUT
THE BROADER LANDSCAPE.
但我會提出幾點觀察，當我們思考更廣泛的市場環境時。
24:47
M&A AT ITS CORE REQUIRES AN
INDUSTRIAL LODGE TOIK SUPPORT A TRANSACTION -- LOGIC TO SUPPORT
A TRANSACTION.
M&A 的核心需要一個支持交易的產業邏輯。
24:56
THINGS REQUIRE MULTIYEAR
INVESTMENTS AND SO THERE ARE SOME DEALS THAT HAVE BEEN
GETTING ANNOUNCED.
這些交易需要多年的投資，因此仍有一些交易已經宣佈。
25:01
THEY ALSO HAVE BEEN IN THE
WORKS.
它們也一直在籌備中。
25:05
BUT I WOULD SAY THAT WITHOUT
THAT CONFIDENCE UNDERPINNING I WOULD SAY CONVICTION, IT WOULD
BE HARD TO GET DEAL MAKE ACTIVITY COMING IN BACK AT THE
ANTICIPATED PACE.
但我認為，如果沒有這種信心作為支撐，或者說信念，交易活動很難以預期的速度回升。
25:14
I WOULD SAY THE FOLLOWING.
我想這樣說。
25:17
WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, U.S.
當我們看看今年第一季度，美國的
25:21
M&A HAS BEEN DOWN BUT INTERNATIONAL WAS ACTUALLY UP.
M&A 活動有所下降，但國際交易實際上是上升的。
25:24
DRIVEN BY ACTIVITY IN BOTH ASIA AND EUROPE.
這是由亞洲和歐洲的活動所推動的。
25:26
I’LL JUST NOTE TWO OF THOSE WITH THE C.K.
我只舉其中兩個例子，像是 CK
25:30
HUTCHINSON TRANSACTION WHICH THEY SOLD, INCLUDING THE PANAMA
CANAL, TO A BLACKROCK CONSORTIA.
Hutchison 的交易，他們將包括巴拿馬運河在內的資產出售給了 BlackRock 的財團。
25:35
SCARLET:
ALTHOUGH BEIJING WANTS THAT REVIEWED.
Scarlet：
25:39
>> 100%. AS WELL AS GOOGLE ACQUIRING ISRAELI-FOUNDED WIZ IN THE
CYBERSECURITY SPACE FOR $32 BILLION.
>> 完全正確。還有 Google 以 320 億美元收購了以色列創立的網路安全公司 Wiz。
25:46
SCARLET:
THAT’S A REALLY GOOD POINT.
Scarlet：
25:48
I GUESS WHAT I’M CURIOUS ABOUT
TOO IS GIVEN THE RESULTS WE HEARD FROM THE BIG BANKS, THEY
WERE FAIRLY SANGUINE ABOUT THEIR OUTLOOK AND IT’S CLEAR
THAT THEY’RE STILL WILLING TO
我想我也很好奇的是，鑑於我們從大型銀行聽到的財報結果，他們對前景相當樂觀，而且很明顯他們仍然願意
25:56
LEND MONEY AT A TIME WHEN A LOT
OF P.E.
在私募股權（P.E.）面臨許多...
25:58
FIRMS NEED TO PUT MONEY TO WORK
AND ALSO RETURN CAPITAL TO THEIR L.P.’S.
公司需要投入資金營運，同時也要將資本返還給他們的有限合夥人（L.P.）。
26:02
DO YOU THINK DEAL STRUCTURES WILL GET MORE CREATIVE AS A
RESULT OF THIS?
您認為交易架構會因此變得更具創造性嗎？
26:09
>> SOME OF THE TRANSACTIONS,
YOU MENTIONED A COUPLE IN THE MARKET, HAVE SEEN CASH
TRANSACTION.
>> 您提到市場上的一些交易，確實有看到現金交易。
26:12
BUT I DO THINK WE NEED TO TAKE
A STEP BACK.
但我認為我們需要退一步思考。
26:16
I DO KNOW THAT OUR U.S.
我知道我們的美國經濟學家今早也有現身。
26:19
ECONOMIST WAS ON THIS MORNING AS WELL AND COMING INTO THE
2025, I WOULD TELL YOU THE ECONOMY HAS CONTINUED TO BE ON
SOLID FOOTING.
展望 2025 年，我告訴您經濟基本面依然穩固。
26:28
WHEN YOU LOOK AT G.D.P.
當您觀察國內生產總值（GDP）成長、
26:30
GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT, THE BALANCE SHEETS OF THE HOUSEHOLD, THE
BANKS, CORPORATES, I UNDERSTAND THAT HARD DATA TEND TO BE A
LAGGING INDICATOR AND SENTIMENT
就業狀況、家庭、銀行及企業的資產負債表時，我理解硬數據往往是落後指標，而市場情緒
26:40
HAS DEFINITELY SHIFTED TO THE
DOWN SIDE.
確實已轉向悲觀。
26:44
BUT THOSE TO ME INFORM THE FACT
THAT OUR ECONOMY CAN SUSTAIN SHOCKS COMING OUT OF A SLOWDOWN
OF SORTS.
但對我來說，這正說明了我們的經濟體能夠承受某種程度的放緩衝擊。
26:54
THE OTHER THING THAT I WOULD
SAY, WHEN AN ORGANIZATION IS LOOKING TOWARD M&A OR CAPITAL
INVESTMENT, THEY’RE LOOKING TO FUTURE-PROOF THE BUSINESS.
另外我想說的是，當一家企業考慮併購或資本投資時，他們是在為企業的未來做準備。
27:02
YOU ASKED ABOUT FINANCING.
您問到了融資問題。
27:04
I’M PROUD TO SAY THAT MIZZOUO
REOPENED THE HIGH-YIELD MARKET YESTERDAY WITH AN UPSIZED
TRANSACTION FOR VENTURE GLOBAL, $2.5 BILLION IN THE MARKETPLACE.
我很自豪地說，Mizuou（註：原文疑似為摩根士丹利 Morgan Stanley 或其他銀行的口誤）昨天透過 Venture Global 的增額交易，重新開啟了高收益債券市場，規模達 25 億美元。
27:14
WE ALSO ADVISED LOWE’S ON AN ACQUISITION YESTERDAY.
我們昨天也為 Lowe's 的收購案提供了顧問服務。
27:19
THE BANKS USE OWN EARNS, TRADINGS HAVE DONEVILLE,
TRADING HAS BEEN NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY THE VOLATILITY BUT
ON BALANCE I DO THINK ONCE WE
銀行自有獲利及交易業務確實受到波動性的負面影響，但整體而言，我認為一旦系統
27:29
GET SOME STABILIZATION INTO THE
SYSTEM, IT SHOULD UNLEASH SOME OF WHAT I WOULD CALL THE, YOU
KNOW, THIS BOTTLE NECK THAT WE’VE HAD.
穩定下來，應該就能釋放我們之前面臨的瓶頸效應。
27:35
WE DON’T NEED PERFECTION, I ALWAYS SAY.
我常說，我們不需要完美。
27:39
BUT WE DO NEED SOME STABILITY AND HOPEFULLY THIS SHOULD SET
US UP FOR A BETTER SECOND HALF ALTHOUGH I’LL CAVEAT IT BY
SAYING DON’T EXPECT 2025 TO BE
但我們確實需要一些穩定性，希望這能為下半年打下更好的基礎，不過我要補充說明，別期待 2025 年
27:48
SETTING ANY RECORDS FOR DEAL
MAKING.
會創下任何交易高峰的紀錄。
27:49
ROMAINE: SO AT LEAST NOT AT THE TOP.
羅曼：至少在頂部不是。
27:51
BUT AS FAR AS THE BOTTOM AND THE WORST CASE SCENARIOS THAT
EVERYBODY HAD PREDICTED.
但就最悲觀及最糟的情境而言，那是大家預測的。
27:54
YOU’RE NOT IN THAT CAMP.
你不屬於那個陣營。
27:56
YOU’VE LIVED THROUGH OR WORKED THROUGH SEVERAL CRISIS,
INCLUDING BEING AT LEHMAN DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CRISIS AND THE DOTCOM BUBBLE
你經歷過或處理過數次危機，包括在全球金融危機與網路泡沫破滅時任職於雷曼兄弟。
28:03
BURSTING. THIS ISN’T THAT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT ON DEAL
VOLUMES?
當我們談到對交易量的影響時，這次並非那樣的情形？
28:07
>> THAT IS NOT OUR CASE.
>> 這不是我們的預期。
28:09
BUT YOU MENTIONED EARLY ON LIKE WHAT ARE C.E.O.’S?
但你稍早提到 CEO 們在做什麼？
28:12
WHAT ARE BOARDS DOING?
董事會在做什麼？
28:14
THEY ARE PLANNING FOR MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS, JUST TO DEAL WITH THAT WIDER DISTRIBUTION OF
OUTCOMES.
他們正在為多種情境做規劃，只為應對更廣泛的結果分佈。
28:19
AND TO ME THE UNITED EARNINGS
THAT CAME OUT GIVING YOU A BASE CASE AND A BEAR CASE IS
INDICATIVE OF THAT.
對我來說，聯合航空（United）發布的財報，提供基本情境與悲觀情境，正說明了這一點。
28:25
BUT WE’RE NOT PREDICTING NOR
ARE WE FACTORING IN ANY TYPE OF THAT SHOCK IN THE SYSTEM.
但我們並未預測，也未將任何類型的系統性衝擊納入考量。
28:32
ROMAINE: I AM CURIOUS ABOUT JUST GEOGRAPHICALLY WHERE THE MONEY
IS FLOWING.
Romaine：我很好奇資金在地理上的流向。
28:34
YOU MENTIONED THAT YOU ARE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT MORE DEAL ACTIVITY IN EUROPE RELATIVE TO
THE U.S.
你提到相對於美國，你看到歐洲的交易活動稍微多一些。
28:39
I KNOW YOU GUYS HAVE BEEN DOING
A LOT WITH GREEN HILL AND ACQUISITION YOU MADE AND THAT
YOU’VE BEEN TRYING TO TWEAK ALONG THE EDGES.
我知道你們與 Green Hill 合作甚多，那是你們收購的公司，你們也一直試圖進行微調。
28:47
BUT THIS WAS I GUESS AN APPEAL TO THE EUROPEAN INVESTOR.
但我想這是為了吸引歐洲投資人。
28:50
IS THAT BUSINESS THAT YOU’RE SEEING THROUGH GREEN HILL, IS
THAT PRIMARILY GOING TO STAY IN EUROPE OR ARE YOU ALSO SEEING
MORE CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY HERE
你們透過 Green Hill 看到的業務，是主要會留在歐洲，還是你們也看到更多跨境活動？
28:57
WITH THE U.S.?
與美國之間的？
28:59
>> GREEN HILL HAD PRESENCE BOTH
IN THE AMERICAS, AS WELL AS ASIA PACK, INCLUDING AUSTRALIA.
>> Green Hill 在美洲及亞太地區（包括澳洲）都有據點。
29:05
AND A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY THAT WE ARE SEEING IS CROSS-BORDER.
我們看到的很多活動都是跨境的。
29:10
AND LET’S NOT FORGET, A JAPANESE BANK, AS YOU KNOW,
JAPAN HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH THIS ECONOMICRY VITALLYIZATION.
別忘了，如你所知，日本銀行業正經歷經濟 revitalization（復甦）。
29:16
AND -- ECONOMIC REVITALIZATION AND WE’RE SEEING A LOT OF
INTEREST GOING INTO JAPAN, AS WELL AS JAPANESE COMPANIES
LOOKING ELSEWHERE, WHETHER IT
以及——經濟振興，我們看到很多資金湧入日本，同時日本企業也在尋找其他地方，無論是
29:23
BE THE U.S.
以美國為例。
29:24
STEEL, NIPPON STEEL IS AN EXAMPLE.
例如美國鋼鐵與新日鐵。
29:26
IT’S NOT JUST CORPORATES.
不僅是企業。
29:28
IT’S ALSO PRIVATE EQUITY.
私募股權也包含在內。
29:30
SO YOU’RE ASKING WHETHER IT’S INTERNALLY.
所以您是在問這是否為內部因素。
29:32
I WOULD TELL THAT YOU CROSS-BORDER IS REALLY
HAPPENING ACROSS THE BOARD.
我要告訴您，跨境交易確實在各領域全面發生。
29:35
SCARLET:
SO THERE’S GEOGRAPHY AND I ALSO WANT TO ASK ABOUT SECTORS.
史嘉蕾：所以有地理因素，我也想問關於產業的部分。
29:40
WHAT’S YOUR READ ON REGULATION ON DEALS WITHIN BIG TECH?
對於大型科技業交易的監管，您的解讀是什麼？
29:43
WE’VE SEEN THAT THE F.C.T.
我們看到聯邦貿易委員會（F.T.C.）。
29:45
APPEARS TO BE AS STRIDENT AS IT
WAS UNDER LYNNA CANADA, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO
CERTAIN KINDSES OF DEALS.
似乎和琳娜·康納（Lynna Canada）時期一樣強硬，特別是在某些類型的交易上。
29:50
META, FOR INSTANCE, THERE’S A
TRIAL TAKING PLACE RIGHT NOW.
例如 Meta，目前就有一場審判正在進行。
29:52
DO YOU THINK THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION?
您認為這種情況會延續到川普政府嗎？
29:57
>> SO THAT’S A GREAT POINT.
>> 這是一個很好的觀點。
30:00
ONE OF THE -- I WOULD SAY SURPRISES IN FEBRUARY WAS WITH
THE NEW F.T.C.
二月的驚喜之一是，新任聯邦貿易委員會主席安德魯·弗格森（Andrew Ferguson）。
30:06
CHAIR, ANDREW FERGUSON, DECIDED
TO UPHOLD THE MERGER GUIDELINES, WHICH MANY THOUGHT
WOULD BE RESCINDED OUTRIGHT OR AMENDED.
決定維持併購指導原則，許多人原本以為這些原則會被直接廢除或修改。
30:12
BUT WHEN YOU SPEAK TO THE LEGAL COMMUNITY, THE VIEW IS THAT THE
APPLICATION OR THE ENFORCEMENT OF THE GUIDELINES WOULD BE MORE
REASONABLE.
但當與法律界人士交談時，他們的觀點是這些指導原則的適用或執法將會更加合理。
30:22
SO THEY WOULD BE MORE WILLING
TO NEGOTIATE REMEDIES WITH COUNTERPARTIES AS OPPOSED TO
TRY TO GO AND LITIGATE IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH NEW CASE LAW.
因此，他們會更願意與交易對手協商補救措施，而不是試圖透過訴訟來建立新的判例法。
30:31
YOU ASKED ABOUT TECH.
您問到了科技業。
30:32
I THINK THAT THE EXPECTATION
THAT WE HAVE ALL HAD, THAT TECH WOULD CONTINUE TO BE AT THE
CROSSHAIR, BUT IT WASN’T KIND OF A RAISE SOME EYEBROWS THAT
THEY HAD DECIDED TO BLOCK THE
我們原本預期科技業將持續成為眾矢之的，但他們決定阻止 HB 交易。
30:41
H.B. TRANSACTION.
這件事其實有點令人意外。
30:43
YOU TA TALKED ABOUT METAL.
你談到了金屬。
30:45
YOU SAW TODAY THE NEWS AROUND
-- META.
你今天看到了關於
30:48
YOU SAW TODAY THE NEWS AROUND
NVIDIA AND THE CHIP.
你今天看到了關於
30:52
I DON’T THINK THAT TECH WILL BE
IMMUNE.
我不認為科技將
30:55
ROMAINE: I’M GOING TO ASK YOU A SOMEWHAT
LOADED QUESTION.
ROMAINE: 我要問你一個有點
30:57
YOU MENTIONED OBVIOUSLY MIZUHO
BEING A BIG JAPANESE BANK.
你提到了瑞穗銀行
31:01
MADE HUGE INROADS INTO THE
UNITED STATES, PARTLY BECAUSE OF YOU.
在美國取得了巨大的進展，
31:03
YOU’VE MADE HUGE INROADS INTO EUROPE.
你在歐洲也取得了巨大的進展。
31:05
WE’RE NOW AT A MOMENT IN TIME WHERE EVERYONE’S QUESTIONING
GLOBALIZATION.
我們現在正處於一個
31:10
AND THE INTERCONNECTEDNESS OF
ALL THESE DIFFERENT REGIONS.
以及所有這些不同地區
31:14
IS THIS GOING TO END UP BEING
POTENTIALLY A MISTAKE, THAT EXPANSION?
這次擴張最終
31:19
>> I, FIRST OF ALL, IT IS
BECAUSE OF THE TEAM I HAVE BUILT THAT WE HAVE MADE SUCH
GREAT INROADS.
>> 首先，是因為我建立的
31:26
THANKS FOR BRINGING THAT UP.
謝謝你提起這點。
31:29
LOOK, THE UNDERLYING DECISION BEHIND GREEN HILL WAS TO
BROADEN OUR M&A CAPABILITIES.
聽著，設立 Green Hill 的
31:36
M&A, IF YOU LOOK AT Q-1 OF THIS
YEAR, CONSTITUTED ARE 45% OF THE INVESTMENT BANKING FEE
POLLS.
併購，如果你看今年
31:40
ON AVERAGE IT’S AROUND 40%.
平均大約是 40%。
31:43
FOR US IT WAS LEANING IN TOWARD AN AREA WHERE WE WERE
UNDERWEIGHT.
對我們來說，這是進軍
31:49
SECONDLY, GREEN HILL HAS GREAT
CAPABILITIES, DEVICING PUBLIC COMPANIES, VERY MUCH ALIGNED
WITH MIZUHO BEING A CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANK.
其次，Green Hill 擁有強大的
31:54
AND SO BETTER ABLE TO SERVE OUR CLIENTS.
因此能更好地
31:57
IN TERMS OF GLOBALIZATION, IT’S GOING TO BE INCREDIBLY HARD TO
COMPLETELY UNRAVEL 40 YEARS OF
就全球化而言，要完全
32:07
WHAT I CALL THE POSTOF
POST-WORLD -- POST-WORLD WAR II ECONOMIC ORDER BUT IT IS
GETTING RESHAPED.
我所稱的後世界——後二戰經濟秩序正在重塑。
32:13
SO WE’RE SEEING JAPAN IN WITH
THE ADMINISTRATION TODAY.
因此我們看到日本今天與行政部門一同加入。
32:15
AND OTHER COUNTRIES COMING IN
TO TRY TO COME UP WITH SOME SORT OF A SOLUTION OR SOME SORT
OF A COMPROMISE.
其他國家也加入試圖提出某種解決方案或某種妥協。
32:23
AND SO, NO, I HAVE FULL
CONVICTION BEHIND THAT ACQUISITION.
所以，不，我對那項收購案有十足的信心。
32:26
ROMAINE: ALL RIGHT.
ROMAINE：好的。
32:26
THAT’S A GREAT PLACE TO LEAVE IT.
這是個很好的結束點。
32:27
APPRECIATE YOUR CANDOR.
感謝您的坦誠。
32:33
MICHAL KA IT, Z -- KATZ AT
MIZUHO AMERICAS.
MICHAL KA IT, Z -- KATZ AT MIZUHO AMERICAS。
32:34
ONE OF THE BIGGEST GAINERS OF
THE DAY WHEN WE COME BACK.
我們休息一下後，將會看到今日最大的贏家之一。
32:37
THAT’S OUR STOCK OF THE HOUR
AND THAT’S UP NEXT.
這是我們的「今日焦點股」，接下來將為您介紹。
32:39
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是 BLOOMBERG。
32:50
♪ ROMAINE:
FEWER THAN 50 OF THE S&P 500 STOCKS IN THE GREEN TODAY AND
ONE OF THEM IS ABBOTT LABS.
THE COMPANY SHARES RISING AFTER
AN EARNINGS REPORT MET ANALYSTS’ EXPECTATIONS, DESPITE
THE THREAT OF TARIFFS.
該公司股價在財報符合分析師預期後上漲，儘管面臨關稅威脅。
33:12
INTERESTING POP ON THE DAY.
今天的走勢相當有趣。
33:12
3% ON A DAY WHERE EVERYTHING ELSE IS DOWN.
在其他股票皆下跌的日子裡上漲了 3%。
33:14
IS THIS ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS FROM THE MOST RECENT QUARTER?
這是否完全歸因於最近一季的數字？
33:18
>> IT’S PARTLY ABOUT THE
NUMBERS BUT ALSO THE BROADER DYNAMICS OF IF WE ARE DEALING
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKETS AND PEOPLE ARE DUMPING
TECHNOLOGY STOCKS, WELL, HEALTH
WE HAD AT LEAST ONE ANALYST
COMING OUT SAYING IT COULD BE A PORT OF CALM IN THE STORM, AS
IT IS, JUST GIVEN THE VOLATILITY AND BROADLY SPEAK
FIGURE MAKE DEVICES, SAY, FOR
PEOPLE WHO ARE MONITORING THEIR
DIABETES, THEY’RE NOT GOING TO TURN THAT OFF.
糖尿病患者使用的設備，他們不會關閉。
33:40
SO THERE STILL IS DEMAND AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THEY
MAINTAIN GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR, DESPITE A ROCKY FIRST
QUARTER AND DESPITE THESE
因此需求仍然存在，而且他們對全年展望維持不變，儘管第一季表現不穩，也儘管面臨這些
33:47
HEADWINDS.
逆風。
33:48
EVEN THIS COMPANY’S C.E.O.
就連這家公司的執行長
33:50
-- ROMAINE:
WE SHOULD POINT OUT ABBOTT GETS MOST OF THEIR -- OR THE BIGGEST
BULK OF THEIR REVENUE COMES FROM MEDICAL DEVICES.
——ROMAINE：
33:57
>> THEY HAVE NUTRITION SO THEY
MAKE ENSURE AND THINGS LIKE THAT, BUT THAT’S REALLY THE BIG
DRIVER FOR THEM.
>> 他們也有營養品業務，所以他們生產 Ensure 等產品，但這才是他們真正的
34:03
SCARLET: THE OTHER THING THAT ABBOTT IS
DOING THAT WE’VE SEEN FROM A LOT OF COMPANIES IS TALK ABOUT
HOW THEY’RE GOING TO INVEST IN
SCARLET：雅培正在做的另一件事，我們也從很多公司看到，就是談論
34:08
U.S. MANUFACTURING.
美國製造。
34:10
5DZ00 MILLION IN THIS CASE.
在這個案例中是 50 億美元。
34:13
IS THIS A NEW INVESTMENT DO WE
KNOW?
這是新的投資嗎？我們
34:14
>> IT SEEMS LIKE IT’S GOING TO
BE PART OF THAT BROADER NEAR SHORING TREND.
>> 這似乎將成為
34:17
THEY DID CALL OUT IN THEIR RELEASE THAT THEY DO HAVE KIND
OF A DIVERSE SUPPLY CHAIN SO THEY ARE DEALING WITH THOSE
KIND OF RAMIFICATIONS.
他們在新聞稿中確實有提到，他們的供應鏈本身具備多元化，因此他們正在處理
34:23
BUT AGAIN, C.E.O.
但再次強調，執行長
34:24
DID SAY A FEW HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT
OF TARIFFS.
確實表示，關稅造成的影響
34:30
SO WHEN YOU’RE TRYING TO INVEST
AND ALLEVIATE HEADACHES, ONE THING THAT WAS INTERESTING FROM
THE EARNINGS CALL IS THE C.E.O.
所以當你試圖投資
34:35
IS LIKE, WE’RE STILL DEALING
WITH THE COSTS FROM THE 2017 KIND OF THINGS THAT THE
GOVERNMENT PUT IN PLACE.
提到，他們仍在處理
34:41
SO THESE AREN’T HEADACHES THAT
GO AWAY.
所以這些問題並不會
34:43
THEY’RE NOT TRANSITORY.
它們不是暫時性的。
34:44
SO THEY’RE THINGS THAT IMPACT
THE BOTTOM LINE IN THE BUSINESS SO I THINK THAT’S PART OF HOW
THEY’RE TRYING TO NAVIGATE THE PATH FORWARD.
因此這些是會影響
34:49
ROMAINE:
WE ONLY HAVE ABOUT MAIN LEFT BUT I AM CURIOUS, MORE BROADLY,
ABOUT WHERE PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR SAFETY IN THIS MARKET.
ROMAINE：
34:55
OBVIOUSLY TRADITIONALLY HEALTH CARE HAS BEEN ONE OF THOSE
AREAS, THE IDEA THAT IT’S RECESSION-PROOF BECAUSE YOU’RE
GOING TO GET YOUR MEDICAL
傳統上，醫療保健顯然是其中之一，
35:03
PROCEDURES DONE WHETHER TIMES
ARE GOOD OR BAD BUT TODAY, THERE’S NOT A WHOLE LOT ELSE UP
TODAY.
不論景氣好壞都必須執行的程序，但今天，沒有太多其他事情發生。
35:08
GOLD STOCKS AND DEFENSE CONTRACTORS.
黃金股和國防承包商。
35:10
>> EXACTLY.
>> 沒錯。
35:11
THE BROAD THING IS WE’RE STILL DEALING WITH AN UNCERTAIN
HEALTH ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBERT F.
總體而言，我們仍需面對羅伯特·F·甘迺迪二世領導 FDA 所帶來的不確定衛生環境。
35:15
KENNEDY JR.
甘迺迪二世。
35:16
LEADING THE F.D.A.
領導 FDA。
35:18
SO YOU’RE DEALING WITH THOSE
HEADWINDS.
所以你必須面對這些逆風。
35:20
MEDICAL DEVICES ARE MORE OF A
SAFE BET AS OPPOSED TO BIOTECH WHICH I JUST HAD LUNCH TODAY,
NO ONE WANTS TO GO ANYWHERE NEAR THAT.
醫療器材相比之下是更安全的選擇，相對於生技股，我今天午餐時，沒有人想碰那塊。
35:25
EVEN THE SPECIALISTS ARE ON EDGE.
就連專家也都神經緊繃。
35:27
ROMAINE:
I GOT THREE VACCINE SHOTS THIS WEEKEND.
羅曼：
35:30
I GOT LIKE THE OLD MAN
VACCINES.
我打了像是給老人的疫苗。
35:32
LIKE SHINGLES.
像是帶狀疱疹。
35:34
TETANUS. NEW HAMPSHIREO CONGRESSLE WHICH I DIDN’T EVEN KNOW WAS A THING.
破傷風。新罕布夏州國會議員，我甚至不知道有這東西。
35:37
I WAS LIKE, WHY DO I NEED THESE?
我心想，為什麼我需要這些？
35:39
WELL, SIR.
嗯，先生。
35:41
SIT DOWN, OLD MAN.
坐下吧，老人家。
35:46
ANYWAY. SCARLET:
WE’RE GOING TO TAKE YOU TO THE CLOSING BELL.
總之。史嘉蕾：
35:49
WE HAVE 15 MINUTES LEFT TO GO.
距離收盤還有 15 分鐘。
35:55
BEFORE THIS MARKET CLOSES.
在這波市場收盤前。
36:12
>> FOR SOME OF THESE COMPANIES
THAT WE EXPECT TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY TARIFFS, WHERE THEY
HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF CERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE RANGE AND
OUTCOMES, THAT CAN BE REALLY
HELPFUL. NOT EVERY COMPANY NEEDS TO KNOW THIS OR PROVIDE THIS TYPE OF
GUIDANCE BUT FOR ONES WHERE, YOU KNOW, C.E.O.’S CAN SEE
THAT, OK, YES, WE CAN OPERATE,
THEY’RE THE LONE HOLDOUTS IN TODAY’S SELLOFF BUT THESE ARE
TTHE BIGGEST DECLINERS SINCE APRIL 2.
它們是今日拋售潮中唯一的例外，但這些是自 4 月 2 日以來跌幅最大的股票。
37:19
AND THE VIX INCHING UP AGAINST BUT YOU CAN SEE THAT IT IS
HOLDING IN THE LOW 30’S.
VIX 指數（恐慌指數）再次小幅上升，但你可以看到它仍維持在 30 多點的低檔。
37:24
ROMAINE: YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.
ROMAINE: 是的，完全正確。
37:25
I WAS GOING THROUGH THAT LIST OF KIND OF THE BIG GAINERS ON
THE DAY, IN THE S&P 500.
我剛看了一下當天標普 500 指數中的一些主要贏家。
37:31
AND A LOT OF ENERGY IN MINING
AND MATERIALS NAMES IN THAT A LOT.
其中有很多是能源、礦業和材料類股。
37:33
IN FACT, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BROADER MARKET HERE, CERTAINLY
A BID TO A CERTAIN EXTENT TO SAFETY.
事實上，當你觀察這裡更廣泛的市場時，確實在某種程度上出現了避險需求。
37:38
JOANNE FEENEY JOINS US RIGHT NOW.
JOANNE FEENEY 現在加入我們的節目。
37:41
PARTNER AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT ADVISORS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT.
她是 Advisors Capital Management 的合夥人兼投資組合經理。
37:47
I WAS GOING THROUGH KIND OF WHAT THE WINNERS ARE TODAY AND
REALLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
我剛看了一下今天的贏家，以及過去幾週真正的贏家。
37:51
BASICALLY LOW VOLATILITY
STOCKS, WHETHER IT’S ON A PURE FACTOR BASIS, ON A LONG-SHORT
BASIS.
基本上是低波動性股票，無論是從純因子角度還是多空策略角度來看。
37:57
IT WAS A WINNING TRADE OVER THE
PAST MONTH AND YEAR TO DATE THAT’S BEEN THE WINNING TRADE
AS WELL.
這是過去一個月以及今年迄今為止的致勝交易。
38:00
IS THAT WHERE INVESTORS SHOULD
REALLY KIND OF FOCUS ON, LOW VOLUME VALUE, IS THAT IT?
投資人是否真的應該專注於低成交量、低估值的股票，是這樣嗎？
38:07
>> IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THEIR
TIME HORIZON.
>> 這真的取決於他們的投資週期。
38:09
THE LONGER-TERM INVESTOR WANTS
TO MAKE SURE, STILL, TO HAVE EXPOSURE TO THOSE KINDS OF
COMPANIES THAT ARE GOING TO PARTICIPATE IN WHAT WE’RE
CALLING THE NEW ECONOMY GROWTH
長期投資人希望確保，他們仍然能投資那些將參與我們所謂「新經濟成長」的公司。
38:19
ENGINE WHICH IS STILL
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.
引擎，也就是人工智慧。
38:21
AND SO EVEN THOUGH IT’S
OBVIOUSLY A VERY ROCKY RIDE, THIS SEPARATION OF THE U.S.
因此，雖然這顯然是一段非常顛簸的旅程，美中兩國的分離，
38:28
AND CHINA, AND THE PROTECTION THE U.S.
以及美國想要為我們的人工智慧
38:30
WANTS TO CREATE FOR OUR A.I.
領導地位所建立的保護網，
38:35
LEADERSHIP, IT’S OBVIOUSLY
CAUSING A LOT OF HEADACHES.
顯然造成了很多困擾。
38:39
BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN THAT
THESE STOCKS STILL DON’T OFFER REALLY GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR
GROWTH FOR THE MULTIPLE YEARS OUT FROM NOW.
但這並不意味著這些股票在未來數年內，
38:44
AND THAT’S WHAT LONG-TERM INVESTORS REALLY NEED TO KEEP
IN MIND.
仍然無法提供極佳的成長機會。
38:50
OTHER INVESTORS HAVE A SHORTER
TERM FOCUS.
而這正是長期投資人真正需要牢記在心的。
38:52
AND NEED TO DO MORE TO PROTECT
THEIR PRINCIPLE.
其他投資人則有較短期的關注點。
38:55
AND IN THOSE CASES, RIGHT, THEY
WANT TO GO TO THE SORT OF STOCKS THAT ARE MORE LIKE
CONSUMER STAPLE, UTILITIES, LESS VOLATILE.
他們需要做更多來保護本金。
39:02
ROMAINE:
FOR THOSE LONGER TERM INVESTORS WHO ARE LOOKING AT THOSE
BROADER STRUCTURAL THEMES AND CHANGES AND A.I.
在這種情況下，他們會轉向那些更像消費必需品、公用事業等波動性較低的股票。
39:06
IS OBVIOUSLY AT THE CENTER OF THAT, A.I.
對於那些關注更廣泛結構性主題和變革的長期投資人而言，
39:09
OF COURSE ALSO BEING
SCRUTINIZED A LOT MORE, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF SOME
OF THE EXPORT CONTROLS, IF YOU WILL, AS WELL AS JUST BROADER
CONCERN ABOUT A DROP OR A
人工智慧顯然是核心，當然人工智慧也受到更多審視，
39:21
PULLBACK ON SOME OF THAT CAP X
SPENDING THAT, DOESN’T WORRY YOU IN THE LONG-TERM?
特別是在某些出口管制的背景下，以及對資本支出減少或回落的廣泛擔憂，這難道不會讓您在長期感到擔憂嗎？
39:24
>> THERE’S A LOT OF CONCERN
CERTAINLY ABOUT HOW MUCH MORE CAP X SPENDING WILL BE COMING
TO POWER THE BUILDOUT OF THE A.I.
>> 確實有許多擔憂，關於還需要多少資本支出投入，
39:28
INFRASTRUCTURE.
來支撐人工智慧基礎設施的建置。
39:30
THERE’S NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT.
這一點是毋庸置疑的。
39:33
BUT RIGHT NOW WE’RE NOT SEEING
ANY REAL CRACKS IN THAT SPENDING.
但目前我們尚未看到此類支出出現任何真正的裂痕。
39:36
MICROSOFT MAY BE MOVING THEIR SITUATION A LITTLE BIT ON WHERE
TO BUILD DATA CENTERS AND WITH WHROM TO PARTNER AND THEIR
PARTNERSHIPS ARE CHANGING AND
微軟可能正在調整其策略，包括數據中心的建置地點以及合作夥伴的選擇，而他們的合作關係也在轉變。
39:44
THAT’S CAUSING SOME OF THEIR
CAP X PLANS TO CHANGE.
這導致他們部分的資本支出計畫發生變化。
39:46
BUT OVERALL WHEN YOU LOOK AT
THE DATA, THE NUMBERS THAT ARE STILL OUT THERE ON TOTAL CAP X
SPENDING FORAY INFRASTRUCTURE IS STILL GROWING VERY NICELY
AND LOOK LIKE THEY’RE GOING TO
但整體而言，當我們審視數據時，基礎建設的總資本支出數據依然非常亮眼。
39:56
DO SO FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.
且預計未來多年將持續成長。
39:58
SO, YEAH, LONGER TERM I THINK THAT’S STILL A VERY GOOD
OPPORTUNITY.
因此，長期來看，我認為這仍是一個非常好的機會。
40:01
SCARLET: AND OF COURSE WE’LL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THESE COMPANIES SAY WHEN THEY DO ANNOUNCE RESULTS IN THE
COMING WEEKS.
SCARLET：當然，我們將靜待這些公司在未來幾週公布財報時的說法。
40:06
SPEAKING OF CAP X, I’M
WONDERING WHEN COMPANIES LIKE ABBOTT SAY THEY’RE GOING TO
INVEST HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN TWO U.S.
談到資本支出，我想知道，當雅培（Abbott）這類公司宣布將在美國投資五億美元。
40:12
FACILITIES TO NEAR SHORE OR RESHORE SOME OF THEIR
MANUFACTURING, IT’S A MOVE THAT PAIC OFF -- PAYS OFF
POLITICALLY THEY HOPE BUT IS IT
A MOVE THAT CHANGES THE
ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE STOCK, OF THE COMPANY’S FUNDAMENTALS FOR
INVESTORS?
是一項能改變公司股票吸引力及基本面的舉動？
40:25
>> YOU KNOW, FROM WHAT I’VE
SEEN SO FAR IN THEIR OPERATIONAL COSTS, IT DOESN’T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE THAT MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE FOR THEM TO
SHIFT SOME MANUFACTURING TO THE
>> 就我目前所見的營運成本而言，將部分製造業從歐洲轉移到美國。
40:32
U.S. OUT OF EUROPE.
對他們來說似乎不會增加太多成本。
40:34
AND SO OVERALL THE COMPANY’S ATTRACTIVENESS ISN’T REALLY
AFFECTED THAT MUCH.
因此，整體而言，公司的吸引力並未受到太大影響。
40:40
THE PROBLEM FOR THEM AND THE
ADMINISTRATION IN TRYING TO INCENTIVIZE COMPANIES TO MOVE
SOME MANUFACTURING HERE, IS THAT IT WILL TAKE YEARS.
對他們以及試圖激勵企業將製造業移回本地的政府來說，問題在於這需要耗費數年時間。
40:48
AND SO WE HOPE THAT THESE SORTS OF ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM COMPANIES
LIKE ABBOTT WILL FORESTALL ANY MOVE BY THIS ADMINISTRATION TO
PUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TARIFFS ON
因此，我們希望雅培等公司的這類聲明，能阻止現任政府對。
40:56
THE IMPORT OF PHARMACEUTICALS.
藥品進口課徵任何重大關稅的舉動。
40:58
THOSE BRAND NAME PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES WILL BE JUST FINE IF
THEY END UP MOVING HERE.
這些品牌藥廠如果最終將產線移回美國，營運將完全不受影響。
41:03
IT’S THE GENERICS THAT REALLY
ARE, YOU KNOW, IT’S UNECONOMICAL FOR THEM TO TRY TO
MOVE MANUFACTURING TO THE U.S.
真正有問題的是學名藥廠，對它們來說，試圖將製造業移至美國是不符合經濟效益的。
41:10
SO THAT’S A BIG QUESTION AS TO
WHAT HAPPENS TO THAT SIDE OF THE INDUSTRY AND WE’RE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT THOSE SORTS OF STOCKS.
因此，該產業此板塊的未來發展是一大問號，而我們對這類股票並不看好。
41:15
SCARLET:
AS A RESULT OF THAT, BECAUSE OF THAT REASON?
SCARLET：
41:19
>> THAT AND OTHERS.
>> 還有其他因素。
41:20
BUT THAT’S A PRETTY BIG REASON.
但這是一個相當重大的原因。
41:22
FIRST OF ALL, THEIR MARGINS ARE
REALLY THIN.
首先，他們的利潤非常微薄。
41:25
SO IT’S A VERY TOUGH BUSINESS
TO KEEP OPERATING WELL.
所以這是一個非常艱難的行業，要維持良好營運很不容易。
41:29
AND THAT MAKES IT A VERY
CHALLENGING PLACE TO INVEST.
這使得它成為一個投資上非常具挑戰性的地方。
41:32
BUT WHEN YOU HAVE A HEADWIND
LIKE THIS POTENTIALLY THAT COULD DESTROY THE BUSINESS,
THAT CAN ACTUALLY MAKE IT UNECONOMICAL TO SELL INTO THE
U.S.
但當你面臨像這樣可能摧毀整個行業的逆風時，實際上會讓銷往美國變得不划算。
41:40
IF THERE ARE ANY MATERIAL TARIFFS, THAT OBVIOUSLY CREATES
AN AWFUL LOT OF RISK.
如果有任何實質關稅，這顯然會帶來巨大的風險。
41:43
ROMAINE: A LOT OF RISK AND IT RAISES THE
QUESTION TOO ABOUT THE GLOBAL EXPOSURE THAT A LOT OF
COMPANIES IN THE S&P 500 HAVE.
ROMAINE：風險很大，這也引發了一個問題，關於 S&P 500 中許多公司的全球曝險。
41:50
DO YOU NEED TO START AS YOU’RE
PICKING STOCKS FOR THE LONG-TERM, DO YOU START TO
PARCE THROUGH SOME OF THOSE NAMES?
當你在為長期選股時，是否需要開始篩選掉某些股票？
41:57
>> YEAH. WHAT WEAN WE’VE DONE -- WHAT WE’VE DONE SINCE THE BEGINNING
OF THE YEAR, SINCE WE’VE SEEN THIS RISK INCREASE, WE SHIFTED
A LITTLE BIT WITHIN OUR BALANCE
>> 是的。我們在年初以來——自從我們看到這個風險增加以來——我們在平衡策略上做了一些調整。
42:06
STRATEGY WHICH IS OUR MOST
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR INVESTORS AND WE LIKE THE
VOLATILITY THERE TO BE LESS THAN THE MARKET AS A WHOLE.
這是我們為投資者提供的最保守策略，我們希望該策略的波動性低於整體市場。
42:14
WE DID START TO SHIFT TOWARD COMPANIES THAT HAVE MORE
DOMESTIC EXPOSURE AND WE’VE CONTINUED TO MAKE TRADES IN
THAT DIRECTION OVER THE LAST
我們確實開始轉向擁有更多國內曝險的公司，並且在過去幾個月持續朝這個方向進行交易。
42:19
FEW MONTHS.
過去幾個月。
42:20
OWNING A COMPANY LIKE UNITED HEALTH CARE, FOR EXAMPLE, AND
DECREASING OUR OWNERSHIP OF COMPANIES THAT HAVE MORE
EXPOSURE TO THE HIGHER INPUT
舉例來說，持有像聯合健康保險（United Health Care）這樣的公司，並減少持有那些對較高投入成本曝險更高的公司。
42:30
COSTS THAT THOSE TARIFFS WILL
CREATE.
這些關稅將創造出更高的投入成本。
42:32
THAT’S ONE WAY OF TRYING TO
SHIFT AWAY FROM THIS KIND OF RISK.
這是嘗試避開這類風險的一種方法。
42:35
SO WE’VE DEFINITELY TAKEN STEPS IN THAT DIRECTION.
所以我們絕對已經朝這個方向採取了措施。
42:39
ROMAINE:
GOT TO LEAVE IT THERE.
ROMAINE：
42:41
JOANNE EVEN IFY, PARTNER,
PORTFOLIO MANAGE -- FEENEY, PARTNER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER,
CLOSING -- COUNTING US DOWN TO THE CLOSING BELLS.
WE WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW NOT A
LOT’S MOVING IN THE S&P 500, BUT THERE IS ONE STOCK HAVING A
PHENOMENAL DAY.
我們剛才談到標普500指數波動不大，但有一檔股票今天表現驚人。
43:00
THIS IS SHARE OF HERTZ.
這是赫茲（Hertz）的股票。
43:02
FOR SOME REASON OR ANOTHER NOW, THEY’VE SHOT UP ANOTHER 20
PERCENTAGE-PLUS POINTS.
不知何故，現在又大漲了20%以上。
43:07
ALL THE WAY UP NOW TO A GAIN OF
ROUGHLY ABOUT 54% HERE ON THE DAY.
目前單日漲幅已達到約54%。
43:10
IS THAT BAD?
這好嗎？
43:11
SCARLET:
I FEEL LIKE THIS IS THE NEW MEME STOCK.
史嘉麗：我覺得這是新的迷因股。
43:16
IT WAS EARLIER AS WELL.
早前也是這樣。
43:20
NOT SURE WHAT WAS PUSHING THIS
BECAUSE THE NEWS WAS ON FOR A WHILE NOW.
不確定背後推動力是什麼，因為這消息已經傳了一段時間。
43:24
ROMAINE:
NO HEADLINES ON THIS.
羅曼：目前沒有相關頭條新聞。
43:26
WE’LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY NEWS
TO BRING IT TO YOU.
我們會持續關注任何消息並向大家報導。
43:28
REALLY KIND OF INDICATIVE TOO
OF THIS IDEA THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE STILL WILLING
TO SPECULATE AND BET.
這也確實反映出一種現象，就是仍有人願意投機和下注。
43:34
WHEN HERTZ SHOULD BE THAT BET,
THAT’S A WHOLE OTHER DEBATE.
赫茲是否值得投資，則是另一個值得探討的議題。
43:35
SCARLET: ABSOLUTELY.
史嘉麗：完全同意。
43:37
THERE’S ALSO THE ARGUMENT THAT HERZ AND AVIS WILL BENEFIT FROM
THE VARIOUS TARIFFS AND URN CERTAINTY BECAUSE PEOPLE WANT
TO BUY USED CARS AND THEY HAVE
也有論點認為，赫茲和安飛士（Avis）會因為各種關稅和不確定性而受益，因為人們想買中古車，而他們
43:46
A LOT OF USED CARS TO SELL OFF.
手上有大量中古車可以出售。
43:47
ROMAINE: ACROSS ASSET CLASSES TODAY, THE
VIX ELEVATED AROUND 33 AT THE MOMENT.
羅曼：今天各資產類別中，VIX指數目前維持在33左右的高點。
43:50
YIELDS DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD.
各期限收益率全面下滑。
43:52
PRIMARILY ON THE SHORTER END OF
THE CURVE.
主要集中在短天期部位。
43:55
SEVEN TO EIGHT BASIS POINTS FOR
TWO-YEAR AND FIVE-YEAR.
2年期和5年期收益率下降7到8個基點。
43:58
LOWER. THE DOLLAR HAVING AN AWFUL DAY
AND SO TOO ARE STOCKS.
走低。美元今天表現糟糕，股市也是如此。
44:02
A FULL BREAKDOWN OF ALL OF
今日市場行情完整解析
44:03
TODAY’S MARKET ACTION STARTS
RIGHT NOW.
現在立即開始。
44:08
ANNOUNCER: THE CLOSING BELL, BLOOMBERG’S
COMPREHENSIVE CROSS-PLATFORM COVERAGE OF THE U.S.
播音員：收盤鐘聲，彭博對美國
44:13
MARKET CLOSE STARTS RIGHT NOW.
市場收盤的全方位跨平台報導
44:16
ROMAINE:
AND RIGHT NOW WE ARE TWO MINUTES AWAY FROM THE END OF
THE TRADING DAY.
現在立即開始。
44:21
ROMAINE AND SCARLET TAKING YOU
THROUGH THAT CLOSING BELL.
ROMAINE：
44:25
GLOBAL SIMULCAST STARTS NOW
WITH CAROL MASSER IN THE RADIO BOTH.
僅剩兩分鐘。
44:26
TIM STENOVEC WHO SHE ALLOWED TO SHARE SPACE WITH HER TODAY, AS
WE WELCOME OUR AUDIENCES ACROSS ALL OF OUR BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS,
ON A DECIDEDLY INTERESTING DAY.
ROMAINE 和 SCARLET 將帶您
44:38
WE WERE TALKING LAST COUPLE OF
SESSIONS -- CAROL: I’M REALLY A NICE PERSON ON
MOST DAYS.
迎接收盤鐘聲。
44:40
NOT EVERY DAY.
全球同步直播
44:41
ROMAINE:
NOT ON THE ODD NUMBERED DAYS.
現在開始，由 CAROL MASSER 在廣播間主持。
44:43
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THIS IDEA OF
THE CALM THAT’S SWEPT THROUGH THIS MARKET AND A CALM BEING
BROKEN TODAY, THE VOLUMES ARE LIGHT BUT STOCKS DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY.
TIM STENOVEC 今天獲准與她共用空間，當我們歡迎
44:51
CAROL: YEAH.
所有彭博平台上的聽眾時，
44:52
I GUESS TIM KEEPS BEATING ME UP
HERE BECAUSE I’M LIKE, TIM, LOOK, WE’RE SEEING BUYING IN
THE LAST FEW MINUTES OF THE SESSION.
這無疑是個有趣的日子。
44:58
AND JUST WHEN YOU THINK MAYBE 2.2% LOWER ON THE S&P IS KIND
OF A BUMMER, CHECK OUT THE STOCKS, IT’S DOWN 4% TODAY.
我們在前幾個交易日
45:05
TIM:
DOWN WORSE EARLIER.
曾談論過——CAROL：大多數日子我其實是個好人。
45:08
IF WE TOOK ABOUT CRUCIAL
MOMENTS OF THE DAY, I THINK IT’S -- NONE OTHER THAN HEARING
FROM JAE POWELL EARLIER, SPECIFICALLY THE CONCERN THAT
HE HAS ABOUT WHAT THE FED WOULD
但不是每天都這樣。
45:18
DO IN A STAGNATIONARY
ENVIRONMENT.
ROMAINE：
45:19
BUT ALSO THAT THE TARIFFS AS
THEY WERE ROLLED OUT WERE BIGGER THAN EXPECTED WHICH
MEANS THEY COULD HAVE A BIGGER EFFECT THAN EXPECTED.
當我們談及籠罩市場的平靜
45:27
SCARLET:
I FEEL LIKE THEY NEED TO DO WHAT UNITE DID AND GIVE TWO
DIFFERENT FORECASTS.
以及今日平靜被打破的概念時，
45:31
THE BASE AND BEARISH.
基本面與看空。
45:32
ROMAINE:
THE PROBLEM IS, THOUGH, IT’S SO CONFUSING WE.
ROMAINE：
45:35
TALK ABOUT THIS IDEA THAT A FEW DAYS AGO WE WERE TALKING ABOUT
THE EXEMPTION THAT NVIDIA LIKELY HAD WITH THE CHIPS AND
THEN BASICALLY IT’S NOT AN
我們談到這個想法，幾天前我們還在討論
45:43
EXEMPTION AND THEN WE GET
EFFECTIVELY A WARNING THAT THEY’RE GOING TO WRITE OFF $5.5
BILLION ON THIS.
豁免，然後我們實際上收到警告，他們將為此提列 55 億美元
45:47
I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT YOU CAN
EVEN PUT OUT THERE WITH CONFIDENCE.
的減損。
45:51
CAROL:
YEAH, WELL, WELCOME TO OUR WORLD.
我甚至不知道還有什麼能
45:54
UNCERTAINTY.
CAROL：
45:55
HASHTAG. ROMAINE: WE GET THE CLOSING BELLS IN NEW
YORK AND IT IS RED ACROSS THE SCREEN.
不確定性。
45:58
S&P 500 LOWER BY MORE THAN 100 POINTS.
標籤。ROMAINE：紐約收盤鐘響，
46:01
LOOKS LIKE IT’S GOING TO BE A DROP OF ROUGHLY 2.2%.
道瓊工業平均指數下跌超過 100 點。
46:04
WE WERE MUCH LOWER THAN THAT ON THE DAY BUT THE CLOSE BELOW
THAT KEY 5300 LEVEL.
看起來跌幅約為 2.2%。
46:11
THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
AVERAGE DROPPING ABOUT 700 POINTS OR 1.7%.
盤中跌幅比這更大，但收盤低於
46:14
THE NASDAQ, THAT IS YOUR BIGGEST DRAG HERE, LARGELY
BECAUSE OF THE WEIGHT THAT WE SAW FROM NVIDIA AND THE REST OF
THE CHIP STOCKS, THE NASDAQ
道瓊工業平均指數下跌約 700 點或 1.7%。
46:24
COMPOSITE AND 100 DOWN 3%.
那斯達克指數，這是拖累大盤的最大因素，主要
46:26
AND THE YOU REALLIES 2,000, -- RUSSELL 2,000, THAT’S YOUR
RELATIVE OUTPERFORMER, LOWER BY 1% ON THE DAY.
綜合指數與那斯達克 100 指數下跌 3%。
46:33
CAROL:
QUICK LOOK ON THE S&P 500.
而羅素 2000 指數，—— 羅素 2000 指數，那是相對
46:35
BROAD BASED IN ERMS IT OF THE
SELLING WITH -- IN TERMS OF THE SELLING.
CAROL：
46:38
66 TO THE UPSIDE.
賣壓分佈廣泛，
46:40
ONE UNCHANGED SCOIVMENT LET’S LOOK AT THE I MAP.
66 檔上漲，一檔持平，讓我們看一下 I MAP。
46:42
IT SHOULD BE PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD HERE.
這裡應該相當清楚明瞭。
46:45
A LOT OF RED.
大片翻紅。
46:46
MOST OF IT DOMINATED BY BIG
TECH SECTORS.
主要由大型科技股板塊主導。
46:49
TECH AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES ALL DOWN BY AT LEAST 2.5%.
科技股、非必需消費品股與通訊服務股皆至少下跌 2.5%。
46:53
THE OUTLIER HERE IS THAT THIN SLICE IN THE UPPER LEFT-HAND
CORNER.
唯一例外是左上角那一小片。
46:59
THAT IS ENERGY STOCKS GAINING
.8%.
那是能源股，上漲 0.8%。
47:01
THEY ARE THE WORST PERFORMERS
SINCE APRIL 2.
它們是自 4 月 2 日以來表現最差的類股。
47:03
STILL DOWN 15%.
仍下跌 15%。
47:04
BUT THEY ARE MOVING HIGHER WITH
OIL PRICES.
但它們正隨油價走高。
47:07
CAROL: GUESS WHAT STOCK I AM GLUED TO
AS WE SPEAK.
CAROL: 猜猜我現在目不轉睛盯著哪檔股票。
47:10
SCARLET: YOUR GAINERS TODAY?
SCARLET: 你今天上漲的股票？
47:12
CAROL: YEAH.
CAROL: 對。
47:13
IT’S A HUGE GAINER.
它大漲了一波。
47:16
ROMAINE: HERTZ.
ROMAINE: Hertz（赫茲）。
47:16
TIM:
IT’S ON THE SCREEN RIGHT NOW.
TIM: 它現在就在螢幕上。
47:18
CAROL: I KEEP WATCHING IT.
CAROL: 我一直在看它。
47:19
IT’S UP 52%.
它上漲了 52%。
47:20
ROMAINE: I HAD A ONE IN THREE CHANCE TO
GET THAT RIGHT.
ROMAINE: 我有三分之一的機率猜中。
47:23
CAROL: ALL RIGHT.
CAROL: 好吧。
47:25
SO HERTZ IS UP 56%.
所以 Hertz 上漲了 56%。
47:26
WE SAW SOME BIG MOVEMENT TO THE UPSIDE IN THE LAST, WHAT, 20
MINUTES OR SO.
我們在過去大約 20 分鐘內看到它大幅上揚。
47:32
15 MINUTES.
15 分鐘。
47:33
UNBELIEVEK.
難以置信。
47:33
ROMAINE: WHY?
ROMAINE：為什麼？
47:34
CAROL:
WELL, WE KNOW THE BACK STORY.
CAROL：
47:36
BECAUSE IT’S BEEN HIGHER ALL
DAY TODAY.
因為它今天一整天都比較高。
47:41
BUT WE DID SEE A LARGE STAKE IN
THE COMPANY REVEALED.
但我們確實看到該公司有一筆大額持股被揭露。
47:44
IT’S HAD ITS WOES BIG TIME.
它遭遇了嚴重的困境。
47:48
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.
這點毫無疑問。
47:51
THE FIRM BUYING 12.7 MILLION
SHARES.
這家公司買了 1270 萬股。
47:53
MAKING IT ONE OF HERTZ’S LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS.
使其成為赫茲（Hertz）的最大股東之一。
47:55
WE KNOW THEY’VE BEEN WORKING ON REVAMPING THEIR FLEET, DOING A
LOT OF THINGS.
我們知道他們一直在努力重整車隊，做了很多事。
47:59
LOOKS LIKE BILL ACKMAN WANTS
CHANGES AS WELL.
看來比爾·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）也想要改變。
48:02
I’M GLUED, WAITING FOR MAYBE A
HEADLINE TO CROSS BUT WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT.
我目不轉睛地盯著，等待可能出現的頭條新聞，但我們得再等等。
48:06
SCARLET:
THE VOLUME IS AMAZING HERE.
SCARLET：
48:08
58 MILLION SHARES.
5800 萬股。
48:09
ON AVERAGE IT TRADES ABOUT 7.8 MILLION A DAY.
平均每天交易量約為 780 萬股。
48:12
CAROL:
A LOT OF ACTIVITY.
CAROL：
48:13
JUST SEEING IT IN A BIG WAY.
可以看到交易量非常大。
48:16
ALL RIGHT.
好的。
48:17
ANOTHER GAINER, ABBOTT
LABORATORIES.
另一檔上漲的股票，雅培實業（Abbott Laboratories）。
48:18
SHOULD WE GO TO EARNINGS OR DO
YOU WANT ME TO CONTINUE?
我們要轉到財報嗎？還是你要我繼續？
48:20
ROMAINE: I’LL PICK UP HERE.
ROMAINE：這裡由我接手。
48:26
WE ARE GETTING EARNINGS OUT OF
C.S.X.
我們正在看 C.S.X. 的財報。
48:27
IT DID LOOK LIKE A MISS.
看起來確實是遜於預期。
48:28
34 CENTS A SHARE.
每股 34 美分。
48:29
THE STREET WAS LOOKING FOR 37 CENTS A SHARE.
華爾街預期是每股 37 美分。
48:32
REVENUE ALSO COMING IN A BIT LIGHT.
營收也略低於預期。
48:33
3.42 BILLION.
34.2 億美元。
48:34
THE STREET WAS LACKING FOR 3DZ.46 BILLION.
華爾街預期是 34.6 億美元。
48:37
NEED A LITTLE MORE TIME TO DIG IN TO SEE IF THERE’S COMMENTARY
HERE ON TARIFFS, AS WELL OF COURSE AS SOME OF THE ISSUES
WITH REGARDS TO ECONOMIC
需要多一點時間深入研究，看看是否有關於關稅的評論，當然還有一些關於經濟狀況的問題。
48:46
CONDITIONS BUT THE SHARES LOWER
BY 5% IN THE AFTER HOURS TRADE.
但股價在盤後交易中下跌了 5%。
48:47
CAROL: THE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF
EXECUTIVE OFFICER SAYING C.S.X.
FACED OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES TO
START THE YEAR WHICH KRNTED TO -- CONTRIBUTED TO FIRST QUARTER
RESULTS THAT DID NOT MEET EXPECTATIONS.
TIM：所以是微觀而非宏觀問題。
49:00
TIM:
SO MICRO NOT MACRO.
這些是該公司特有的問題。
49:03
THESE ARE UNIQUE TO THIS
COMPANY.
營運上的問題。
49:04
OPERATIONAL.
並非對經濟持負面看法。
49:04
NOT NEGATIVE ON THE ECONOMY.
CAROL：他們對經濟的看法將會很有趣。
49:05
CAROL: IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY MAYBE ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
儘管如此，股價還是下跌了。
49:09
STILL THOUGH THEY’RE DOWN.
目前持平震盪，但我們一開始確實看到大幅下跌。
49:11
BOUNCING AROUND HERE UNCHANGED
BUT WE DID SEE INITIALLY A BIG DROP HERE.
目前持平震盪，但我們一開始確實看到大幅下跌。
49:14
I’M GOING TO GO BACK TO GAINERS IF I MAY.
如果可以的話，我要回到漲幅榜這邊。
49:18
ABBOTT LABORATORIES FOLKS UP MORE THAN 6%.
雅培（Abbott Laboratories）上漲超過 6%。
49:21
FINISHING WITH A 2.7% GAIN.
最終上漲 2.7%。
49:22
THE C.E.O.
執行長
49:23
SAYING DURING THEIR EARNINGS CALL THAT THE COMPANY EXPECTS A
2025 TARIFF IMPACT OF ABOUT A FEW HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS.
在財報電話會議中表示，公司預期 2025 年的關稅影響約為數億美元。
49:31
SO I GUESS INVESTORS WERE LIKE, MAYBE THEY CAN DEAL WITH THAT.
所以我想投資人覺得，也許他們應付得來。
49:33
COMPANIES MAKING NEW INVESTMENTS IN U.S.
這些公司正在美國進行新的投資。
49:34
MANUFACTURING HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
在美國境內製造。
49:36
WITH THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS ON MEDICAL DEVICES AND DIAGNOSTICS
LOOMING OVER THE INDUSTRY.
隨著關稅對醫療設備和診斷產品的影響
49:41
THEY’RE GOING SPEND ABOUT HALF
A BILLION DOLLARS ON TWO FACILITIES LOCATED IN ILLINOIS
AND TEXAS.
他們將在伊利諾州和德州的兩個設施上
49:47
I SHOULD SAY WITH EARNINGS,
THEY AREAFFIRMED ANNUAL GUIDANCE AND ADJUSTMENTED E.P.S.
我應該補充說明，在財報方面，
49:51
THAT WERE IN LINE WITH THE WALL STREET ESTIMATES AND HERE’S A
SMALLER MARKET CAP COMPANY, A GROCERY COMPANY.
符合華爾街的預期，而這是一家規模較小的市值公司，一家雜貨公司。
49:56
$1.4 BILLION MARKET CAP BASED IN CALIFORNIA.
市值 14 億美元，總部設在加州。
49:59
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING.
我們說的是 Grocery Outlet Holding。
50:02
IT WAS UP 5.3% AT ITS HIGHS.
它一度上漲 5.3%。
50:05
UP ALMOST 11% TODAY BUT STILL
CLOSING WITH A 5% GAIN.
今天幾乎上漲 11%，但收盤時
50:09
BEING RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD
AT JEFFRIES WHICH SAYS THE COMPANY’S DEFENSIVE POSITIONING
AS A LOW PRICE GROCER COULD FUEL OUTPERFORMANCE AMID
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY.
在 Jefferies 被從「持有」調升至「買進」，該公司表示，作為一家低價雜貨商，
50:18
THERE’S THE U WORD.
這就是那個「U」字（指 Uncertainty，不確定性）。
50:20
ROMAINE:
REAL QUICKLY WITH HERZ.
羅曼：
50:24
A VIEWER SAID TO LOOK AT THE
SHORT INTEREST.
一位觀眾說要看一下
50:26
CAROL: LIKE 45% OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
CAROL: 大概是45%左右。
50:27
ROMAINE: YEAH.
ROMAINE: 是的。
50:28
48% BASED ON BLOOMBERG
CALCULATIONS.
48%，這是根據彭博的計算。
50:29
THAT WAS AS OF YESTERDAY.
這是截至昨天的數據。
50:30
COMING INTO TODAY’S SESSION.
進入今天的交易時段。
50:31
SCARLET:
SO THIS IS A VIOLENT SHORT RALLY.
SCARLET: 所以這是一個暴力的短暫反彈。
50:35
ROMAINE: POTENTIALLY.
ROMAINE: 有可能。
50:37
TIM: ALL RIGHT.
TIM: 好的。
50:38
CERTAIN OUTLIER IN TODAY’S
TRADE.
這是今天交易中的某個異常現象。
50:41
I WANT TO GO TO NVIDIA, THE ONE
THAT STARTED THINGS OFF ON THE DOWN SIDE TODAY AFTER WE GOT
THE NEWS LATE YESTERDAY THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS
RESTRICTED THE COMPANY FROM
IT WILL COST THE COMPANY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND EFFECT
ITS PRODUCT LINE.
這將讓該公司損失數十億美元，並影響其產品線。
50:54
DOWN 6.9% IN TODAY’S TRADE.
今天交易中下跌6.9%。
50:56
AT ONE POINT IT WAS DOWN AS MUCH AS 10.5% BUT IT CAME OFF
OF THOSE LOWS.
盤中一度大跌10.5%，但隨後從低點回升。
51:03
THE RESTRICTION WILL IMPACT
NVIDIA’S REVENUE WITH ESTIMATED WRITEDOWNS OF $5.5 BILLION.
這項限制將衝擊NVIDIA的營收，預計減記金額達55億美元。
51:09
SAMSUNG COULD BE AFFECTED AS WELL.
三星（Samsung）可能也會受到影響。
51:11
AND STAYING WITH THE
SEMICONDUCTOR SPACE, WANT TO LOOK AT A.D.R.’S OF ASML.
繼續關注半導體領域，我們來看看ASML的ADR。
51:18
THIS IS A TARIFF STORY, NOT A RESTRICTION STORY.
這是一個關稅議題，而不是限制議題。
51:22
THOSE SHARES FELL 7% TODAY.
該股今天下跌7%。
51:25
AFTER THE COMPANY REPORTED
FOURTH QUARTER ORDERS THAT WERE ALMOST A BILLION EUROS LESS
THAN EXPECTED AND IT DOESN’T KNOW HOW TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACT
OF RECENT TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENTS
起因是該公司公佈的第四季訂單金額比預期少了近10億歐元，而且公司不知道如何量化近期關稅公告的影響。
51:34
THAT HAS THREATENED THE
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY.
這已經威脅到半導體產業。
51:37
THE COMPANY OUTLINED POTENTIAL
RISKS FROM U.S.
該公司概述了來自美國的潛在風險。
51:38
TARIFFS INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
CHARGES ON SHIPMENTS AND SAID IT HAS NO PLANS TO MOVE
PRODUCTION TO THE U.S.
包括對貨物運輸加徵額外關稅，並表示無意將產能移往美國。
51:43
BUT IT MAY PASS ON SOME TARIFF
COSTS TO CUSTOMERS.
但可能會將部分關稅成本轉嫁給客戶。
51:47
FINALLY, THE COMPANY THAT
REPORTED AFTER THE BELL YESTERDAY, SHARES FALLING 7.7%.
最後，這家公司在昨天盤後公布財報，股價下跌 7.7%。
51:52
THE COMPANY REPORTED REVENUE IN SEGMENTS THAT FELL SHORT OF
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE, J.B.
該公司公佈的營收與部門表現均未達到分析師共識預期，J.B. Hunt。
51:56
HUNT. IT BEAT EXPECTATIONS WHEN IT
CAME TO INTERMODAL AND FIRST QUARTER PROFIT CAME IN ABOVE
ESTIMATES.
雖然在多式聯運業務方面超乎預期，且第一季獲利優於預估。
52:01
ANALYSTS POINTED TO CONTINUED
CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS AND OF COURSE THE
BROADER ECONOMY.
分析師指出，市場持續擔憂關稅的影響，當然還有整體經濟狀況。
52:09
WE SAW PRICE TARGETS CUT AT
LEAST THREE FIRMS THATLE FOD THE STOCKS.
我們看到至少三家給予該股票評級的機構下調了目標價。
52:11
ROMAINE:
YIELDS, THE VOLATILITY THERE DID CONTINUE HERE.
Romaine：殖利率的波動性在這裡持續存在。
52:14
ALTHOUGH WE SAW A LITTLE BIT OF A FLIP FLOP FROM WHAT WE HAD
SEEN A LITTLE BIT LAST WEEK THIS TIME.
雖然相較於上週稍早的走勢，我們看到了一點反轉。
52:18
DROPPING YIELDS OF ABOUT SEVEN BASIS POINTS ON THAT MOST
RATE-SENSITIVE, FED-SENSITIVE PART OF THE CURVE.
在曲線對聯準會政策最敏感、殖利率最敏感的區段，殖利率下降了約 7 個基點。
52:27
YOU’RE ONLY LOOKING AT A DROP OF ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS BUT
LOOK AT THOSE ABSOLUTE NUMBERS HERE.
你可能只看到大約 3 個基點的跌幅，但請看看這些絕對數字。
52:32
THAT GIVES YOU A SENSE AS TO WHY SOME FOLKS ARE IN THE OTHER
ASSET CLASS ARE BEING RATTLED.
這讓你明白為什麼其他資產類別的一些人會感到不安。
52:38
SCARLET:
ALTHOUGH THERE MUST BE A RELIEF AMONG MARKET PARTICIPANTS THAT
AT LEAST WE’RE GOING BACK TO A TRADITIONAL RISK-OFF DYNAMIC
WHERE STOCKS ARE DOWN, THE
Scarlet：雖然市場參與者一定感到寬慰，至少我們正回到傳統的避險動態，也就是股市下跌，
52:48
DOLLAR’S DOWN BUT BONDS ARE
HIGHER, PUSHING YIELDS LOWER.
美元下跌，但債券上漲，推動殖利率走低。
52:51
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WE’D SEEN THIS ODD AND CONCERNING SITUATION WHERE
EVERYTHING WAS GOING DOWN AT THE SAME TIME.
在過去幾天，我們看到了這種奇怪且令人擔憂的情況，那就是所有資產都在同時下跌。
52:55
CAROL:
I THOUGHT ABOUT THAT EXACTLY.
Carol：我也是這麼想的。
52:57
IT’S KIND OF CRAZY, RIGHT?
這有點瘋狂，對吧？
52:58
WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE.
外面充滿了這麼多不確定性。
52:59
TO SEES THAT KIND OF NORMAL IN TERMS OF THE WAY THE MARKETS
ARE SUPPOSED TO WORK.
這才是市場應有運作方式的正常狀態。
53:04
BECAUSE WHEN IT DOESN’T, IT
REALLY RAISES SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT IS TRULY GOING ON
HERE.
因為當市場不正常時，確實會讓人質疑背後究竟發生了什麼事。
53:08
BUT I KEEP THINKING, I JUST
WANT TO GET MORE EARNINGS AND SEE WHAT COMPANIES HAVE TO SAY
AND SEE IF ANYTHING’S HOLDING UP.
但我一直在想，我只想看更多財報，聽聽公司怎麼說，看看有沒有什麼支撐著股價。
53:13
TIM:
DOES THAT MEAN IT ALL RIDES ON NETFLIX TOMORROW AF AFTER THE
BELL?
TIM：這是否意味著明天盤後 Netflix 的財報將決定一切？
53:18
IS THAT THE TRUE TEST?
這會是真正的考驗嗎？
53:19
ARE CONSUMERS PULLING BACK ON
NETFLIX?
消費者正在減少對 Netflix 的訂閱嗎？
53:22
ARE MORE PEOPLE GOING TO THE
CHEAPER TIER OPTION WHERE ADVERTISING IS OFFERED?
是否有更多人轉向選擇有廣告的較便宜方案？
53:26
WHAT’S THE CONCERN?
擔憂點是什麼？
53:27
ROMAINE: THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH NETFLIX
IS, THAT GOING TO BE AS MUCH OF A BAROMETER, A BROAD ECONOMIC
BAROMETER?
ROMAINE：Netflix 唯一的問題是，它還能作為廣泛經濟的晴雨表嗎？
53:34
I FEEL LIKE IT’S SUCH AN
OUTLIER.
我覺得它太過異常了。
53:35
TOMORROW WE GET SOME HEALTH
CARE NAMES LIKE UNITED HEALTH AND I THINK A FEW OTHER BANKS,
REGIONAL BANKS AND OTHERS.
明天我們會看到一些醫療保健類股，像是 United Health，我認為還有其他幾家銀行，包括區域銀行和其他。
53:42
SO MAYBE THAT WILL BE A BETTER
REPRESENTATION OF WHERE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE AT?
也許那樣更能代表目前的經濟狀況？
53:45
BECAUSE I DON’T KNOW BUT, BUT I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT THE HECK I
PAY FOURNETTE FLICKS ANYMORE.
因為我不知道，但我甚至不知道我現在付給 Netflix 多少錢。
53:51
IT JUST GETS CHARGED TO MY
CREDIT CARD.
它只是自動從我的信用卡扣款。
53:53
THEY COULD CHARGE ME $50 A
MONTH, I WOULDN’T KNOW.
就算他們每個月收我 50 美元，我可能也不知道。
53:56
CAROL: YOU HAVE PEOPLE WHO TAKE CARE
OF THAT FOR YOU, RIGHT?
CAROL：你有專人幫你處理這些事，對吧？
53:58
ROMAINE: NO, I DO EVERYTHING MYSELF.
ROMAINE：不，所有事都是我自己來。
53:59
CAROL: I AGREE.
CAROL：我同意。
54:00
THE MORE THE MERRIER IS HOW I’M
FEELING.
我覺得越多越好。
54:02
I THINK WE WANT TO HEAR WHAT
THESE GUYS TO SAY.
我想我們想聽聽這些公司怎麼說。
54:05
WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY THEY
HAVE.
他們的能見度如何。
54:06
DO THEY DO WHAT U.A.L.
他們是否做了 U.A.L. 的事？
54:07
DID? ROMAINE:
I GOT RID OF TWO OF MY SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES.
ROMAINE：我取消了兩個我的訂閱服務。
54:13
SCARLET:
WHICH ONES?
SCARLET：哪兩個？
54:14
TIM: I SAIDS IT’S OK.
TIM：我說沒關係。
54:16
ROMAINE:
I GOT RID OF PRIME.
ROMAINE：我取消了 Prime。
54:18
SCARLET: NO MORE FREE SHIPPING FOR YOU.
SCARLET：你就沒有免運費了。
54:20
ROMAINE: THAT WASN’T AN ISSUE FOR ME BUT
WE NEVER WATCH -- THE APPLE ONE.
ROMAINE：那對我來說不是問題，但我們從不看——Apple One。
54:28
WE WATCHED S SEVERANCE.
我們只看過《 Severance》。
54:29
SCARLET:
YOU JUST FLICK IT BACK ON WHEN YOUR SHOW COMES ON.
SCARLET：當你的影集上檔時，你再重新訂閱就好了。
54:33
ROMAINE:
MAYBE SCARLET CAN SHARE HER MEMBERSHIPS WITH ME.
ROMAINE：也許 SCARLET 可以跟我分享她的會員資格。
54:35
YOU HAVE THEM ALL, RIGHT?
你全部都有，對吧？
54:36
SCARLET: I DO.
SCARLET：是的。
54:37
TIM:
I’LL ORDER ALL YOUR STUFF TO BE DELIVERED TO ME.
TIM：我會把你所有東西都訂好寄到我這裡。
54:41
ROMAINE:
THANK YOU.
ROMAINE：謝謝。
54:43
SCARLET JUST TRIES TO DOWN PLAY
IT.
SCARLET 只是想輕描淡寫。
54:43
CAROL: ARE YOU DONE?
CAROL：你說完了嗎？
54:44
ROMAINE: NO.
ROMAINE：沒有。
54:46
THAT’S -- IT IS A WRAP ON THIS WEDNESDAY.
這是——我們這個星期三到此結束。
54:49
OUR CROSS-PLATFORM, RADIO, TV, BLOOMBERG, YOUTUBE ORIGINALS,
WE HAVE FUN, WE GET THROUGH IT.
NOW, OUR TOP STORY THIS HOUR IS
STOCKS TAKING A BIG LEG LOWER FOLLOWING FED CHAIR JAE
POWELL’S WARNING THAT TRADE TENSIONS MAY UNDERMINE THE
CENTRAL BANK’S DUAL MANDATE OF
充分就業和物價穩定。
57:31
FULL EMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY.
央行也再次表明，即使預期波動性將增加，他也不急於採取行動。
57:33
THE CENTRAL BANK HAD ALSO ONCE AGAIN SIGNALED THAT HE’S IN NO
HURRY TO ACT EVEN AS HE EXPECTS VOLATILITY TO INCREASE.
央行也再次表明，即使預期波動性將增加，他也不急於採取行動。
57:40
TAKE A LISTEN.
請聽聽看。
57:41
>> TARIFFS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO
GENERATE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RISE IN INFLATION.
>> 關稅極有可能會
57:47
INFLATIONARY EFFECTS COULD ALSO BE MORE PERSISTENT.
通膨效應也可能更為持久。
57:51
AVOIDING THAT OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON THE SIZE OF THE
EFFECTS, ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THEM TO PASS THROUGH FULLY
TO PRICE, AND ULTIMATELY ON
要避免這種結果，將取決於影響的規模、
57:59
KEEPING LONGER-TERM INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS WELL ANCHORED.
維持較長期的通膨預期
58:04
OUR OBLIGATION IS TO KEEP
LONGER TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WELL ANCHORED.
我們的義務是維持
58:09
WE WILL BALANCE OUR MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY
MANDATES, KEEPING IN MIND THAT WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY, WE
CANNOT ACHIEVE THE LONG PERIODS
我們將平衡我們的充分就業與物價穩定
58:17
OF STRONG LABOR MARKET
CONDITIONS THAT BENEFIT ALL AMERICANS.
強勁勞動市場狀況，
58:20
WE MAY FIND OURSELVES IN THE CHALLENGING SCENARIO IN WHICH
OUR DUAL MANDATE GOALS ARE INTENTIONED.
我們可能會面臨挑戰性的情景，即
58:26
IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, WE WOULD CONSIDER HOW FAR THE ECONOMY IS
FROM EACH GOAL AND THE POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT TIME
HORIZONS OVER WHICH THOSE
如果發生這種情況，我們將考慮經濟距離
58:34
RESPECTIVE GAPS WOULD BE
ANTICIPATED TO CLOSE.
各自差距縮小的
58:37
ROMAINE: THE FED CHAIR SPEAKING EVERYIER
AT THE ECONOMIC CLUB OF CHICAGO.
ROMAINE：聯準會主席在芝加哥經濟俱樂部
58:40
MEANWHILE, BACK HERE IN STUDIO
2 IN NEW YORK, JEFF ARONSON JOINS US.
與此同時，在紐約的第 2 間攝影棚，
58:45
MANAGING PRINCIPAL AND
CO-FOUNDER AT CENTER BRIDGE PARTNERS.
他是 CENTER BRIDGE PARTNERS 的
58:48
I’M NOT SURE IF YOU HAD A CHANCE TO LISTEN TO THE
ENTIRETY OF WHAT JAE POWELL HAD TO SAY TODAY.
我不確定您是否有機會聽到
58:51
HE KIND OF SAID THE SAME THING BEFORE.
他之前好像也說過類似的話。
58:53
AND IT’S SORT OF A SENSE OF PARALYSIS ALSO AT THE FED.
聯準會內部似乎也有一種
58:57
THIS IDEA THAT FOR RIGHT NOW, THEY DON’T REALLY SEE MUCH OF A
REASON TO DO ANYTHING.
這個想法是，就目前而言，他們真的看不到
59:03
AND I DO WONDER IF YOUR WORLD,
WHEN IT COMES TO FINDING NEW DEALS, AS WELL AS JUST MANAGING
YOUR CURRENT DEALS, WHETHER YOU’RE MAYBE FEELING A SIMILAR
SENSE OF PARALYSIS.
我很好奇，在您的領域裡，
59:14
OR AT LEAST SAY IT SIS --
STASIS.
或者至少可以說是——
59:16
>> I THINK IT’S EASY TO BE
PARALYZED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
>> 我認為在這樣的環境下很容易陷入停滯。
59:19
I THINK EVEN IN HIS PREPARED
REMARKS, I BELIEVE HE SAID, WE’RE WAITING FOR MORE CLARITY
BEFORE WE DO ANYTHING.
我認為即使在他的準備講稿中，我相信他說過，在我們採取任何行動之前，我們正在等待更多明確的訊息。
59:25
I THINK THAT FEEL SOMETHING
RAMPANT.
我認為這種感覺非常普遍。
59:27
NOT JUST IN THE INVESTOR
COMMUNITY, BUT IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY.
不僅在投資界，在商業界也是如此。
59:32
IMAGINE YOU’RE A C.E.O.
想像一下，如果你是美國一家中型市場企業的執行長。
59:34
OF A MIDDLE MARKET BUSINESS IN
THE UNITED STATES AND YOU’RE DEBATING WHETHER YOU SHOULD BUY
A COMPETITOR OR BUILD A NEW PLANT.
你正在考慮是應該收購一家競爭對手，還是建造一座新工廠。
59:42
IN LIGHT OF EVERYTHING
HAPPENING, I THINK IT’S MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, I’M GOING TO
PAUSE.
考量到正在發生的一切，我認為我暫停的可能性很高。
59:48
I’M GOING TO WAIT.
我會選擇等待。
59:49
AND THE SAME THING WITH THE
CONSUMER.
消費者的情況也是如此。
59:50
IS THE CONSUMER GOING TO GO OUT
AND BUY A NEW CAR RIGHT NOW?
消費者現在會出去買一輛新車嗎？
59:55
I’M NOT SURE.
我不確定。
59:56
AND I THINK IT’S THE SAME THING WITH INVESTORS.
我認為投資者的情況也是一樣的。
59:59
IT’S EASY TO WAIT.
等待很容易。
1:00:00
I DON’T THINK IT’S NECESSARILY
THE RIGHT ANSWER BUT IT’S EASY TO WAIT.
我不認為這一定是正確的答案，但等待很容易。
1:00:02
ROMAINE:
WITH SOME OF THOSE COMPANIES, ARE WE LOOKING AT A SITUATION
WHERE THOSE COMPANIES HAVE THE LUXURY OF SITTING THIS OUT?
ROMAINE:
1:00:08
THE IDEA THAT MAYBE THEY DON’T NEED TO COME AND LOOK FOR A
DEAL, LOOK TO RAISE MONEY?
也就是說，也許他們不需要主動出擊去尋找交易或尋求籌資？
1:00:12
OR IS THIS SORT OF THAT CLIFF
WHERE SOME OF THEM HAVE NO CHOICE, BUT TO FIND NEW SOURCES
OF FUNDING AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND ARE GOING TO
HAVE TO WEATHER THIS MARKET?
>> I THINK BECAUSE THERE IS SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY, WHICH IS CERTAINLY THE WORD OF THE DAY,
THE WORD OF THE WEEK ACTUALLY, IT WOULD BE UNWISE IF YOU’RE A
MANAGER NOT TO BE THINKING
ABOUT THE FACT THAT, DO I HAVE
ADEQUATE LIQUIDITY TO RUN MY BUSINESS?
那就是，我是否有足夠的流動性來經營我的業務？
1:00:35
OVER THE NEXT PERIOD OF TIME.
在接下來的一段時間內。
1:00:37
AND IF YOU DON’T, YOU’RE
THINKING HARD.
如果你沒這麼想，那你肯定在努力思考。
1:00:38
I BETTER GET IT NOW.
我最好現在就弄懂。
1:00:39
I BETTER GET IT QUICKLY BECAUSE I DON’T KNOW WHAT TOMORROW’S
GOING TO BRING.
我最好快點弄懂，因為我不知道明天會發生什麼事。
1:00:43
IT’S A TOUGH ENVIRONMENT I
THINK TO MANAGE A BUSINESS THESE DAYS.
我認為現在的環境很艱難，管理一家企業不容易。
1:00:46
SCARLET:
SO YOU OVERSEE YOUR FIRM’S INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES, YOU’RE
PARTICULARLY ACTIVE IN ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS.
史嘉蕾：您負責監督公司的投資活動，特別活躍於另類投資領域。
1:00:51
SO WE’RE TALKING PRIVATE EQUITY, PRIVATE CREDIT.
所以我們談的是私募股權、私人信貸。
1:00:55
REAL ESTATE.
還有房地產。
1:00:56
OF THOSE THREE BUCKETS, WHICH
PART OF THE BUSINESS FEELS LIKE THEY CAN MOVE AHEAD WITH WHAT
THEY CAN CONTROL?
在這三大類別中，哪一部分的業務讓您覺得可以憑藉自身可控的因素向前推進？
1:01:01
THE PARTS THAT THEY FEEL THEY
HAVE SOME VISIBILITY OVER?
也就是您認為對其前景較有掌握的部分？
1:01:04
>> I THINK THE FACT THAT WE’RE
A PRIVATE INVESTOR REALLY GIVES US A LEG UP.
>> 我認為身為私人投資者的事實，確實給了我們一大優勢。
1:01:08
SO IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT, AGAIN, WHETHER YOU’RE LOOKING
AT A PRIVATE EQUITY TRANSACTION OR A PRIVATE CREDIT AND NEW
LOAN, OR A REAL ESTATE DEAL, I
所以在這種環境下，無論您看的是私募股權交易、私人信貸與新貸款，還是房地產交易，
1:01:17
THINK YOU HAVE TO LOOK FOR
THREE THINGS.
我認為您必須尋找三樣東西。
1:01:21
ONE, YOU HAVE TO LOOK FOR A
VERY HIGH QUALITY EITHER BUSINESS OR ASSET TO INVEST IN.
第一，您必須尋找一個非常優質的企業或資產來投資。
1:01:28
WHETHER PURCHASE OR LENT TO.
不論是收購還是放貸。
1:01:30
SECOND, THE PRICE HAS TO BE
RIGHT.
第二，價格必須合理。
1:01:32
PRICE HAS TO BE RIGHT.
價格必須合理。
1:01:33
THE LEVERAGE HAS TO BE MODEST.
財務槓桿必須適度。
1:01:36
AND THE THIRD THING, AS I THINK ABOUT OUR ENTIRE BUSINESS, THE
FACT THAT WE’RE A PRINCIPAL, THE FACT THAT WE’RE AT THE
TABLE, AT THE NEGOTIATING
第三點，就我們整體業務而言，身為委託人（Principals）的事實，以及我們身處談判桌、
1:01:44
TABLE, HAVING A HAND IN OUR OWN
DESTINY, I THINK IS A HUGE ADVANTAGE BECAUSE WE CAN
ACTUALLY INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME BY GROWING A BUSINESS, BY
HELPING IT IMPROVE ITS
參與自身命運決策的事實，我認為是一大優勢，因為我們實際上可以透過發展業務、
1:01:56
OPERATIONS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
協助改善營運等方式來影響最終結果。
1:01:58
AS OPPOSED TO A PASSIVE INVESTOR WHERE YOU’RE SITTING,
YOU’RE KIND OF SITTING IN THE BACK, YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT’S
GOING TO HAPPEN.
相對於被動型投資者，你是坐著，有點像是坐在後排，不知道會發生什麼事。
1:02:02
SCARLET: YOU’RE WAITING.
SCARLET：你在等待。
1:02:03
>> EXACTLY.
>> 沒錯。
1:02:03
SCARLET:
LET’S GO TO THE POINT ABOUT THE PRICE HAS TO BE RIGHT.
SCARLET：
1:02:06
IS THE COUNTERPARTY SEEING THINGS IN THE SAME WAY OR DO
THEY NEED TO BE CONVINCED?
對方是否也這樣看，還是需要說服他們？
1:02:12
>> I THINK IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT, PEOPLE ARE PROBABLY LESS LIKELY TO
TRANSACT OR NOT BECAUSE OFTENTIMES, LET’S SAY YOU’RE A
SELLER OF A BUSINESS.
>> 我認為在這種環境下，人們可能比較不會進行交易，原因不外乎是，假設你是一家企業的賣方。
1:02:21
YOU WANT TO SELL AT LAST YEAR’S
PRICE, EVEN -- OR THE PRICE THREE MONTHS AGO.
你希望以去年的價格出售，甚至是三個月前的價格。
1:02:25
YOU DON’T WANT TO SELL TODAY.
你不想在今天出售。
1:02:28
AND THE BUYER OR THE INVESTOR
WANTS TO BUY AT THE NEW PRICE.
而買方或投資者希望以新的價格買入。
1:02:30
SO WHAT HAPPENS?
那會發生什麼事？
1:02:32
YOU GET THIS GAP AND SOMETIMES DURING THOSE PERIODS,
TRANSACTION ACTIVITY SLOWS DOWN.
你會出現這種價差，有時在這些時期，交易活動會放緩。
1:02:38
THAT’S WHAT WE’RE SEEING RIGHT
NOW.
這就是我們目前看到的情況。
1:02:40
BUT THERE ARE ALWAYS A GROUP OF
COMPANIES AND THERE ARE A GROUP OF INVESTORS THAT ARE WILLING
TO TRANSACT EVEN IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY.
但總有一群公司和一群投資者願意在面對不確定性時進行交易。
1:02:47
ROMAINE:
I AM CURIOUS WITH YOUR EXISTING PORTFOLIO, HOW MUCH EXPOSURE DO
YOU HAVE RIGHT NOW TO THE CONSUMER SO TO SPEAK?
ROMAINE：
1:02:55
THE CONSUMER SPENDING AND ANY SORT OF CHANGES IN THAT
SPENDING.
消費者支出以及支出方面的任何變化。
1:02:59
>> IF I THINK ABOUT DIRECT
EXPOSURE.
>> 如果我考慮直接曝險。
1:03:01
WE DON’T HAVE, FOR EXAMPLE, WE
HAVE NO RETAIL EXPOSURE.
我們沒有，舉例來說，我們沒有零售曝險。
1:03:05
SO I THINK ABOUT IT MORE IN
TERMS OF THE IMPACT, IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE A SERIES OF
TARIFFS IN THIS COUNTRY, WHAT’S THE IMPACT ON OUR PORTFOLIO
COMPANIES?
所以我更多是從衝擊的角度來思考，如果這個國家將實施一系列關稅，對我們的投資組合公司會有什麼影響？
1:03:14
AND WE’VE LOOKED AT EACH ONE OF
OUR BUSINESSES AND TRIED TO DETERMINE THAT AND AT LEAST FOR
US THAT FIRST ORDER LEVEL OF IMPACT IS QUITE LOW.
我們審視了每一項業務並試圖確定這一點，至少對我們來說，第一層次的影響相當低。
1:03:23
BUT THE SECOND ORDER OF IMPACT, SO, FOR EXAMPLE, I DON’T KNOW
WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IF THERE IS A GLOBAL TRADE WAR, THAT’S
GOING TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
但第二層次的影響，例如，我不知道如果發生全球貿易戰會怎樣，那將影響整個
1:03:30
ECONOMY. LIKELY RECESSION.
經濟。很可能出現衰退。
1:03:33
THAT WILL IMPACT ALL BUSINESSES.
這將影響所有企業。
1:03:36
SO WE THINK ABOUT IT AT TWO
LEVELS.
所以我們從兩個層面來思考。
1:03:37
FIRST ORDER, PRETTY MUTED.
第一層面，相當平淡。
1:03:39
SECOND ORDER, HARD TO KNOW AT THIS POINT.
第二層面，此刻難以得知。
1:03:41
ROMAINE:
WHEREAS THE SITUATION WITH REAL ESTATE?
羅曼：那房地產的情況呢？
1:03:43
I’VE HEARD FROM A LOT OF
INVESTORS, AT LEAST ON THE COMMERCIAL SIDE, THAT THEY’RE
FINDING SOME PRETTY GOOD DEALS, MUCH MORE ALIGNMENT IN TERMS OF
HOW THEY’RE VALUING THINGS AND
我聽很多投資人說，至少在商業地產方面，他們找到了一些相當不錯的交易，在他們如何估值以及
1:03:53
HOW THE EXISTING OWNERS ARE
VALUING THINGS.
現有業主如何估值方面，有更多的契合點。
1:03:54
>> IT COMES DOWN TO PRICE.
這取決於價格。
1:03:56
BECAUSE WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER TIME MARKETS WILL FIND THE
RIGHT LEVEL AND FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, THE REAL ESTATE MARKET
IN TERMS OF NUMBER OF
因為隨著時間的推移，市場會找到正確的水平，而且多年來，房地產市場在交易數量方面，一直非常緩慢。
1:04:05
TRANSACTIONS, IT’S BEEN REALLY
SLOW.
交易量一直非常緩慢。
1:04:07
AND WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, IT’S
STARTING TO UNFREEZE.
而現在正在發生的是，市場開始解凍。
1:04:09
AND THAT’S WHAT ALWAYS HAPPENS
WITH MARKETS.
這就是市場總是會發生的情況。
1:04:13
IN TIME THE RIGHT PRICE COMES
TO THE FORE.
隨時間推移，正確的價格將會浮現。
1:04:15
SCARLET: ALL RIGHT.
SCARLET: 好的。
1:04:16
THANK YOU SO MUCH, JEFF
ARONSON, MANAGING PRINCIPAL AND CO-FOUNDER AT CENTER BRIDGE
PARTNERS FOR A LOOK AT WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE PRIVATE EQUITY
AND PRIORITY CREDIT AS WELL AS
非常感謝 Jeff Aronson，Center Bridge Partners 的管理合夥人暨共同創辦人，為我們分析私募股權和優先信貸，以及
1:04:24
-- PRIVATE CREDIT AS WELL AS
REAL ESTATE WORLDS.
私人信貸以及房地產領域的現況。
1:04:28
ALCOA HAS RESULTS AND SALES
MISSED ANALYSTS’ ESTIMATES WHILE ADJUSTMENTED E.P.S.
Alcoa 公布財報，其營收未達分析師預期，而經調整後的每股盈餘
1:04:34
DID TOP ANALYSTS’ CONSENSUS.
則超越分析師共識。
1:04:37
IN TERMS OF THE OUTLOOK, THEY
STILL SEE THEIR FULL-YEAR ALUMINUM SHIPMENTS AT 2.6
MILLION METRIC SUNS AND SEES FULL YEAR PRODUCTION AT 2.3
MILLION TONS.
展望方面，他們仍預期全年鋁出貨量為 260 萬公噸，並預計全年產量為 230 萬噸。
1:04:49
IT DOES SEE A SECOND QUARTER
NEGATIVE IMPACT FROM TARIFFS ON ALIME NUMB FROM CANADA --
ALUMINUM FROM CANADA.
它確實看到了第二季
1:04:55
NEVERTHELESS, THAT STOCK IS UP.
儘管如此，那檔股票還是在上漲。
1:04:57
COMING UP, WE ARE GOING TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN TODAY’S
SELLOFF.
接下來，我們將進一步分析今天
1:05:01
YOU SAW THE BIG LEG LOWER AFTER
JAE POWELL SPOKE.
你在鮑爾發言後
1:05:04
THIS IS "THE CLOSE"
ON BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社的
1:05:19
SCARLET: ALL RIGHT.
SCARLET：好的。
1:05:20
WE’RE LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED IN TRADING TODAY.
我們來看看今天交易發生了什麼事。
1:05:23
WHAT STARTED OFF AS A FAIRLY ORDERLY DECLINE REALLY TOOK A
LEG LOWER AT MIDDAY WHEN JAE POWELL BEGAN SPEAKING AND MADE
CLEAR THAT THE FED IS NOT GOING
一開始是相當有序的下跌，
1:05:32
TO RIDE TO THE RESCUE OF
INCREASED VOLATILITY.
出手拯救
1:05:33
BECAUSE THEY ARE OF COURSE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THEIR DUAL MANDATES.
因為他們當然
1:05:35
THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE TARIFFS WHICH THEY ADMITTEDLY SAID THE
DOWN SIDE WOULD BE PERHAPS MORE THAN WHAT THEY HAD ANTICIPATED.
他們正在關注關稅，他們坦承
1:05:44
SOME SOBERING WORDS FROM THE FED CHAIR.
這是聯準會主席一些發人深省的言論。
1:05:47
YOU CAN SEE THE NASDAQ DOWN 3S OREN THE DAY AND -- 3% ON THE
DAY AND THE RUSSELL 2,000 CAPS WERE THE BEST PERFORMERS.
你可以看到納斯達克指數當日下跌了3%，而羅素2000指數是當日表現最佳的。
1:05:58
ROMAINE: NOT NECESSARILY ALL ABOUT
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS.
ROMAINE：這不全然是
1:06:02
SCARLET: JOINS US TO DISCUSS MORE IS
JONATHAN FROM BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET：加入我們討論更多的是
1:06:06
HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THIS
STAGE OF THE DECLINE THAT WE’RE SEEING IN MARKETS?
你如何描述我們在市場上看到的
1:06:10
BECAUSE IT’S CERTAINLY CHANGED FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK
BEFORE THE PIVOT AND THE PAUSE ON THE 90 DAYS FOR THE TARIFFS
THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAD
因為這肯定與我們上週在轉折點以及川普總統宣布對關稅暫停90天之前看到的情況不同。
1:06:17
ANNOUNCED.
宣布。
1:06:18
>> YEAVMENT TOTALLY.
>> 是的，完全正確。
1:06:20
WE’RE STILL IN THE CHOP PHASE HERE.
我們仍處於震盪階段。
1:06:21
WE’VE HAD A TRIGGER EVENT.
我們已經出現了一個觸發事件。
1:06:22
WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A SERIES OF AFTERSHOCKS.
我們將會經歷一系列的餘震。
1:06:25
I DON’T KNOW THAT WE’VE OFFICIALLY HAD AN AFTERSHOCK
YET AND THEN IT’S GOING TO BE A WAITING PERIOD WHERE WE WAIT
AND SEE WHAT IS THE EFFECT ON
我不認為我們已經正式發生了餘震，接下來會有一段觀察期，我們要靜觀其變，看看對
1:06:34
THE REAL ECONOMY.
實體經濟會有什麼影響。
1:06:36
SO MY READ IS WE’RE STILL WAITING ESSENTIALLY TO
UNDERSTAND WHAT THE POLICY ITSELF IS.
所以我的解讀是，我們基本上仍在等待，以了解政策本身究竟是什麼。
1:06:42
THAT SEEMS TO CHANGE DAY BY DAY.
這似乎每天都在變。
1:06:46
AND THEN ONCE WE GET SOME
CERTAINTY AROUND THAT, IF WE EVER GET SOME CERTAINTY, IT’S
GOING TO BE LIKE WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE IN THE REAL DATA,
WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE IN THE
OF COURSE WE’LL GET SOME GUIDANCE ON THAT THIS EARNINGS
SEASON.
當然，我們會在這個財報季得到一些指引。
1:07:01
BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO SEE THE
CONCRETE IMPACTS.
但現在要看到具體的影響還太早。
1:07:04
ROMAINE: GETS TO THE AGE-OLD QUESTION
ABOUT THIS IDEA OF SORT OF WHAT MATTERS MOST.
羅曼：這回到了那個老問題，關於什麼才是最重要的。
1:07:08
IS IT THE
CONTOURS OF THAT POLICY OR JUST SOME CERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT IT IS?
到底是政策的具體內容，還是僅僅是對政策的某種確定性？
1:07:14
>> WELL, BOTH.
>> 嗯，兩者都是。
1:07:15
I MEAN, EVEN IF WE HAD PERFECT
CERTAINTY, IT’S HARD TO BELIEVE THAT ANYBODY WOULD BE, YOU
KNOW, JUMPING UP AND DOWN IN GLEE WITH A 25% EFFECTIVE
TARIFF RATE AND WE’RE LITERALLY
WE’RE LITERALLY TALKING ABOUT
CHANGING THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM BACK TO SOMETHING THAT
WE HAVEN’T SEEN IN 100 YEARS.
我們確實在討論將全球貿易體系改造成一個我們一百年來都沒見過的樣子。
1:07:37
SO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS IS
HUGE.
所以這件事的影響程度非常巨大。
1:07:42
YOU REALLY NEED TO HAVE A BIG
WALK BACK AND SOME CERTAINTY THAT THAT WALK-BACK IS
SUSTAINABLE FOR MARKETS TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT THIS IN THE NEAR
TERM.
你需要出現重大的政策轉向，並且有某種確定性，證明這種轉向是可持續的，市場才會在短期內對此感到安心。
1:07:54
SCARLET: YOU WROTE A COLUMN TODAY THAT
REALLY REFLECTED ON THE UNUSUAL STEP THAT UNITED TOOK IN
OFFERING DUAL GUIDANCE FOR THE
史嘉蕾：你今天寫了一篇專欄，反思了聯合航空（United）採取的不尋常步驟，他們對
1:08:01
FULL YEAR.
全年提供了雙重指引。
1:08:02
BASE CASE THAT IT OFFERED AND ALSO A RECESSION CASE, A BEAR
CASE IN.
提供的基本情境，以及衰退情境、熊市情境。
1:08:06
DOING SO, IT PROVIDED A LITTLE
BIT OF TRANSPARENCY, GIVING A PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF THE
POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS YEAR.
這樣做提供了一些透明度，為今年的各種可能性劃出了相當寬的範圍。
1:08:14
WHAT’S THE RISK OF LETTING
INVESTORS IN ON THE DOWN SIDE OF THE OPTION?
讓投資人知道選擇權的下行風險有什麼風險？
1:08:19
>> KUDOS TO THEM FOR BEING
INTELLECTUALLY HONEST WITH EVERYBODY.
>> 給他們按個讚，因為他們對每個人都展現了知識上的誠實。
1:08:21
I THINK IT GOES TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THEME THAT YOU HAVE
BEEN HITTING ON ON YOUR SHOW HERE.
我認為這涉及您在節目中一直強調的「不確定性」主題。
1:08:27
WE’RE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHERE COMPANIES CAN’T REALLY TELL US
WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.
我們身處這樣的環境：企業無法真正告訴我們將會發生什麼事。
1:08:35
WE’VE BEEN LIVING WITH THIS
SECURITY BLANKET OF CORPORATE GUIDANCE FOREVER.
我們一直依賴企業財測這條安全毯。
1:08:39
AND IT JUST STANDS TO REASON THAT INVESTORS ARE GOING TO
HAVE TO DEMAND A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A RISK PREMIUM IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THEY CAN’T
因此很合理的是，在這種他們無法
1:08:46
HONESTLY TELL US WHAT THINGS
ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE ONE QUARTER OUT, FOUR QUARTERS OUT.
老實告訴我們一季後、四季後會是什麼情況的環境中，投資人將會要求更高的風險溢價。
1:08:55
ROMAINE: YEAH.
羅曼：是的。
1:08:56
THE EARNINGS SEASON IS JUST
GETTING STARTED.
財報季才剛開始。
1:08:59
THE COMPANIES WHO HAD AN EASIER
TIME OF GIVING GUIDANCE HAVE GIVEN IT HERE.
那些比較容易提供財測的公司已經在這裡提供了。
1:09:05
GETS HARDER AS WE MOVE ON.
隨著時間推移，這會變得更難。
1:09:07
JONATHAN IN MIAMI.
這是邁阿密的強納森。
1:09:08
WE’RE HERE IN CHILLY NEW YORK CITY.
我們現在在寒冷的紐約市。
1:09:11
A DOWN DAY FOR MARKETS.
今天市場下跌。
1:09:12
VOLUME IS LIGHT.
成交量清淡。
1:09:13
A HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK.
這週因假日而縮短。
1:09:15
TOMORROW WILL BE THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE WEEK.
明天將是本週最後一個交易日。
1:09:17
THAT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN THERE WON’T BE CATALYSTS.
這並不意味著不會有催化劑出現。
1:09:20
ALL EYES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE U.S.
所有目光都聚焦在美中關係上
1:09:23
AND CHINA AND WILL THEY OR WON’T THEY ACTUALLY MEET?
以及他們究竟會不會真正見面？
1:09:27
DAN TANNENBAUM WILL JOIN US AFTER THE BREAK.
丹坦南鮑姆將在廣告後加入我們。
1:09:33
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社。
1:09:39
♪ ROMAINE:
IT’S BEEN TWO WEEKS SINCE
♪ 羅曼：
1:09:50
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S LIBERATION
DAY WHERE HE ROLLED OUT ALL OF THOSE TARIFFS ON ALL OF OUR BIG
TRADING PARTNERS AND HE’S STILL WAITING FOR A CALL FROM XI
JINPING.
BLOOMBERG IS REPORTING THAT
CHINA IS OPEN TO TALKING TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
彭博社報導稱，中國願意與白宮交談。
1:10:04
BUT ONLY IF THE WHITE HOUSE SHOWS MORE RESPECT AND IS
WILLING TO ADDRESS SOME SPECIFIC CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY
INVOLVING TAIWAN.
但前提是白宮表現出更多尊重，並願意解決一些具體的擔憂，特別是涉及台灣的問題。
1:10:13
THIS IS BEIJING, NAMES A NEW
TRADE ENVOY THAT MAYBE COULD HELP JUMP-START THINGS.
北京任命了一位新的貿易特使，也許可以幫助推動事情發展。
1:10:19
DANIEL TANNENBAUM IS HEAD OF THE GLOBAL ANTI-FINANCIAL CRIME
PRACTICE AND A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE ATLANTIC CONSOLE.
丹尼爾坦南鮑姆是全球反金融犯罪實踐的負責人，也是大西洋理事會的高級研究員。
1:10:25
LET’S GET RIGHT TO IT.
我們直接進入主題。
1:10:26
WHAT DOES CHINA REALLY WANT
HERE?
中國在這裡真正想要什麼？
1:10:30
BECAUSE JUST TO SAY BE NICER TO
US AND THEY’LL TALK ABOUT TAIWAN, IS THAT ENOUGH TO GET
THEM TO THE TABLE?
因為僅僅說對我們好一點，然後他們就會談論台灣，這足以讓他們坐上談判桌嗎？
1:10:34
>> THEY ASKED FOR A POINT
PERSON AS WELL WHICH I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WOULD WELCOME AT
THIS POINT.
>> 他們還要求指定一個對口負責人，我認為在這個階段很多人都會歡迎這樣做。
1:10:39
IS IT ENOUGH?
這足夠嗎？
1:10:40
THERE’S A LOT OF
UNPREDICTABILITY AS WE’VE BOTH SEEN, AS THE MARKETS ARE
EVIDENCING.
正如我們兩人都看到的，市場也證明了，存在很多不可預測性。
1:10:45
I THINK HAVING A CLEAR PATH OF
WHAT DOES THE U.S.
我認為需要有一條清晰的路徑，說明美國
1:10:49
REALLY WANT, AND WE EVEN HEARD
THE E.U.
真正想要什麼，我們甚至聽說歐盟
1:10:51
DELEGATION THAT WAS TALKING
ABOUT THE TRADE DEAL DOESN’T FULLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION WANTS.
討論貿易協議的代表團也不完全了解特朗普政府想要什麼。
1:10:57
I DON’T THINK CHINA IS ANY
DIFFERENT, BUT THEY ARE REALLY RESPONDING IN KIND BECAUSE THEY
LEARNED FROM ALL OF THE TOOLS THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
BEGAN IMPOSING AGAINST THEM.
我認為中國並無不同，但他們確實在以牙還牙，因為他們已從川普政府開始對他們實施的所有工具中學到教訓。
1:11:03
ROMAINE:
THAT’S WHAT I’M CURIOUS ABOUT.
ROMAINE：
1:11:07
IS THE RETALIATION FROM CHINA.
關於中國的報復行動。
1:11:08
THERE WERE REPORTS HERE BASICALLY TELLING THEIR
AIRLINES NOT TO TAKE ANY MORE DELIVERIES OF BOEING PLANES.
這裡有報導基本上指示他們的航空公司不要再接收波音飛機。
1:11:13
THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF RUMORS ABOUT OTHER POCKETS OF ITS
ECONOMY IN TERMS OF CUTTING OFF BUSINESS WITH U.S.
關於其經濟其他領域切斷與美國公司業務往來的傳聞甚囂塵上。
1:11:17
COMPANIES.
關於其經濟其他領域切斷與美國公司業務往來的傳聞甚囂塵上。
1:11:18
IS THAT GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY TACTIC THEY TAKE?
這會是他們採取的主要策略嗎？
1:11:21
>> THEY’RE FOLLOWING HOW THE
U.S.
>> 他們正在遵循美國的
1:11:23
PLAYBOOK OPERATED SO TO THAT
POINT ON TRYING TO NOT BUY OR OR SERVICE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT
WITH AMERICAN PARTS, HOW IS THAT GOING TO WORK?
策略模式運作，所以關於試圖不購買或不使用美國零件維修美國飛機這一點，這將如何運作？
1:11:31
BECAUSE REALISTICALLY HOW ARE YOU GOING TO MAINTAIN THE
AIRCRAFT?
因為現實上你要如何維護飛機？
1:11:35
WILL YOU NEED TO BUY PARTS
UNLESS YOU’RE MAKING THEM YOURSELF WHICH RUSSIA LEARNED
HOW TO DO.
你難道不需要購買零件嗎？除非你自己製造，就像俄羅斯學會做的那樣。
1:11:41
THE U.S. HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
CRITICAL MINERALS, INVEHICLING 232 AS AN INVESTIGATION TO
REALLY LOOK AT THE -- WHAT TYPES OF ISSUES WE’RE SEEING IN
OUR SUPPLY CHAIN.
美國一直關注關鍵礦產，啟動 232 條款調查是為了真正審視——我們在供應鏈中看到的問題類型。
1:11:50
BUT CHINA’S THREATENED TO
WITHHOLD CRITICAL MINERALS.
但中國已威脅要扣留關鍵礦產。
1:11:52
THE U.S. BUYS 70% OF ITS RARE EARTH MINERALS AND METALS FROM CHINA.
美國 70% 的稀土礦產和金屬從中國購買。
1:11:57
WHERE IS IT GOINGS TO OFFSET THAT?
美國將從哪裡彌補這一點？
1:11:58
SCARLET:
THESE ARE ALL OPEN QUESTIONS AND HOPEFULLY WE’LL BE ABLE TO
GET SOME RESOLUTION ON ALL OF THESE.
SCARLET：
1:12:03
YOU MENTIONED THE SECTION 232 INVESTIGATIONS.
您提到了 232 條款調查。
1:12:06
THE ADMINISTRATION IS USING THAT AS A JUSTIFICATION TO
LAUNCH ALL KINDS OF INVESTIGATIONS INTO DIFFERENT
SECTORS AND PRESUMABLY IMPOSE
政府正在利用這一點作為理由，對不同產業發動各種調查，並推測將實施
1:12:14
TARIFFS. IS THERE ANY LIMITATION TO THAT -- TO THE USE OF THAT RULE?
關稅。對於使用這項規則有任何限制嗎？
1:12:19
>> I THINK THERE’S PRECEDENT.
>> 我認為有先例可循。
1:12:20
I DON’T KNOW IF THERE’S LIMITATION.
我不確定是否存在限制。
1:12:21
AND THAT’S I THINK WHAT WE’VE BEEN DEALING WITH A LOT.
我認為這正是我們一直在處理的問題。
1:12:25
SECTION 232 HAVE BEEN USED TO IMPOSE TARIFFS RELATED TO
STEEL, ALUMINUM, AUTOMOTIVE.
第232條已被用來對鋼鋁、汽車徵收關稅。
1:12:30
NOW SEMICONDUCTORS AND A LOOK
AT CRITICAL MINERALS, HOW BROADLY CAN IT BE USED I THINK
IS A QUESTION.
現在是半導體，還有關鍵礦產，我認為問題在於其適用範圍能有多廣。
1:12:37
BUT THE PIVOT TO 232 IS ALSO
IMPORTANT.
但轉向第232條也很重要。
1:12:40
IT TIPS THE HAT THAT THE
IEPA-BASED TARIFFS MIGHT BE RUNNING INTO CHALLENGE AS WE’RE
SEEING MORE LITIGATION POP UP CHALLENGING THE EFFICACY OF THE
NATIONAL EMERGENCY VERSUS 232,
WHICH HAS BEEN USED TO STORE --
HISTORICALLY MORE TO DRIVE TARIFF STRATEGY.
後者歷史上更多是用來推動關稅策略。
1:12:53
SCARLET:
WHAT HAPPENS IN THOSE LEGAL CHALLENGES?
SCARLET：這些法律挑戰會發生什麼情況？
1:12:55
CAN YOU GO ON WITH WHAT YOU’VE BEEN DOING UP UNTIL THERE IS A
RULING ON THAT?
在法院作出裁決之前，您能繼續您正在做的事情嗎？
1:13:00
>> I THINK YOU HAVE TO FOLLOW
THE LETTER OF THE LAW AND WHAT THE COURTS SAY.
>> 我認為必須遵守法律條文和法院的判決。
1:13:03
ALTHOUGH THAT MIGHT BE CALLED INTO QUESTION A BIT MORE AT THE
MOMENT.
儘管目前這可能受到更多質疑。
1:13:07
THE CHALLENGE WITH IEPA IS THE
PRESIDENT DECLARES A NATIONAL EMERGENCY, BUT IT’S BEEN
RELATED TO THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.
IEPA的挑戰在於總統宣布國家緊急狀態，但這與美國經濟有關。
1:13:14
FENTANYL TRAFFICKING,
IMMIGRATION.
芬太尼販運、移民。
1:13:17
AND GIVEN ALL OF THE BACK AND
FORTH ON EXEMPTIONS THAT ARE GIVEN, IT DOES REALLY QUESTION
HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS EMERGENCY IS, WHICH MAY CREATE SOME DOUBT
IN COURTS’ MINDS ON WHETHER
YESTERDAY WE WERE TALKING ABOUT
THE 31ST ANNIVERSARY OF THE W.T.O.
昨天我們談到WTO成立31週年。
1:13:37
AND I KNOW THE W.T.O.’S BEEN DEFANGED A LONG TIME AGO BUT
WHO IS THAT GLOBAL ARER TO BE RIGHT NOW?
我知道WTO早已被拔掉獠牙，但目前誰是全球仲裁者？
1:13:44
>> THERE IS NONE.
>> 沒有。
1:13:46
THAT IS THE CHALLENGE.
這就是挑戰所在。
1:13:49
YOU’VE REALLY GOT KIND OF A
U.S.-CHINA TRADE WAR WITH A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PARTIES
THAT ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO ADAPT AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE.
美中貿易戰已經形成，而其他許多國家正試圖找出如何盡可能適應的最佳方式。
1:13:56
I THINK THE U.S.
我認為美國
1:13:57
AND CHINA WILL COME TO TERMS AT
SOME POINT BUT THIS YOU CALL FIRST APPROACH.
和中國終將達成協議，但這就是你所說的「先發制人」策略。
1:14:01
SOMEONE WILL ACTUALLY HAVE TO MAKE A LEGITIMATE MOVE HERE.
總得有人先採取實質性的行動。
1:14:05
THE MEASURES AND RESPONSE FROM CHINA TODAY DOES SEEM LIKE
THEY’RE BALANCING HOW STRONG TO RESPOND.
中國今天採取的措施和回應，似乎是在衡量該強硬回應的程度。
1:14:11
BUT AGAIN, THINGS CAN CHANGE REALLY QUICKLY ON THIS ISSUE.
但再次強調，這個議題的局勢變化非常快。
1:14:16
ROMAINE: IS THERE A SENSE THAT CHINA CAN
SORT OF RECOUP WHATEVER IT LOSES WITH AMERICA BY TRYING TO
CREATE CLOSER PARTNERSHIPS WITH
羅曼：中國是否認為可以透過嘗試建立更緊密的夥伴關係，
1:14:23
EUROPE AND OTHER PARTS OF THE
WORLD?
與歐洲及世界其他地區合作，來彌補在美國損失的部分？
1:14:24
>> I DON’T KNOW IF IT CAN
RECOUP.
>> 我不確定是否能完全彌補。
1:14:25
THE AMERICAN CONSUMER NEEDS
GOODS TO BE MADE IN CHINA.
美國消費者需要中國製造的商品。
1:14:28
CHINA’S MAKING THEM AND CAN
SELL THEM ELSEWHERE.
中國正在生產這些商品，也可以賣給其他地方。
1:14:31
SO THERE IS A BIT OF A LEVER
THAT THEY HAVE AGAINST THE U.S.
所以他們對美國其實握有一定的籌碼。
1:14:34
THAT MAY BE MORE MEANINGFUL.
這可能更具實質意義。
1:14:36
THAT IS THE CONCERN RIGHT NOW OF WHETHER THESE CHEAPER GOODS
GET DUMPED ACROSS THE E.U.
目前的擔憂在於，這些更便宜的商品是否會傾銷到歐盟，
1:14:40
WHICH THERE’S A FOCUS ON THAT
AT THE MOMENT.
這也是目前關注的焦點。
1:14:42
I DO THINK ULTIMATELY THEY’LL
COME TO TERMS.
我確實認為最終他們會達成協議。
1:14:45
IT’S JUST WHAT WILL THAT LOOK LIKE?
問題在於那會是什麼樣的協議？
1:14:47
AND HONESTLY, SEEING THAT THE PRESIDENT HADN’T RESPONDED SO
SIGNIFICANTLY TO WHAT CHINA CAME BACK WITH TODAY, I TAKE AS
SOME POSITIVE FOR THE MOMENT.
老實說，看到總統對中國今天的回應沒有採取重大行動，我認為目前看來是個正面訊號。
1:14:56
BUT WHO KNOWS.
但誰知道呢。
1:14:58
SCARLET:
WHO KNOWS.
史嘉蕾：誰知道呢。
1:15:00
POLICY AS WE LEARNED FROM THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, I GUESS AS CHINA INDICATES IT’S OPEN TO
TALKS, WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHO IS LIKELY TO BE LEADING
THOSE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE U.S.
THIS WAS RAISED TODAY BECAUSE OF THE NVIDIA ANNOUNCEMENT THAT
THEY WERE GOING TO WRITE OFF THE $5.5 BILLION IN CHIPS HERE.
今天之所以會提出這個問題，是因為NVIDIA宣布他們將對這裡的55億美元晶片進行減記。
1:16:30
WE ALREADY KNOW ANECDOTALLY THAT THERE HAVE BEEN
WORK-AROUNDS FOR CHINA AND OTHERS TO GET THEIR HANDS ON
THINGS THAT ANOTHER NOT
我們已經透過一些軼事得知，中國和其他國家已經有了一些變通辦法，得以取得那些不應該——
1:16:36
SUPPOSED -- THAT THEY’RE NOT
SUPPOSED TO GET THEIR HANDS ON.
他們不應該取得的東西。
1:16:38
IS THIS GOING TO BECOME MORE OF
A MESS?
這會不會變得更加混亂？
1:16:41
>> THERE REALLY ISN’T A PART OF
THE U.S.
>> 美國政府內部真的沒有任何一個部門具備
1:16:43
GOVERNMENT THAT’S EQUIPPED TO
POLICE THAT.
監管這件事的能力。
1:16:45
SO YOU’D HAVE TO STAND UP A
TEAM WITHIN THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT TO REALLY LOOK AT
TARIFF EVASION MUCH LIKE OFAC AT TREASURY LOOKS AT SANCTIONS
EVASION BUT I DO EXPECT, AND
EVERYONE’S WAITING FOR SMOOTH
SAILING OF SOME PATH FORWARD THAT’S A BIT MORE PREDICTABLE
BUT I DO EXPECT YOU MAY SEE COUNTRIES AND COMPANIES TRYING
TO LOOK AT WAYS TO GAME THE
每個人都在等待一條更順暢、更可預測的前進道路，但我確實預期您可能會看到各國和各公司試圖尋找
1:17:05
SYSTEM. AND SOMEONE WILL NEED TO BE STOOD UP TO ACTUALLY POLICE
THAT.
規避制度的方法。屆時將需要成立某個單位來實際監管這一切。
1:17:09
SCARLET: ALL RIGHT.
SCARLET: 好的。
1:17:10
DANIEL TANNENBAUM.
DANIEL TANNENBAUM。
1:17:11
ALWAYS A PLEASURE SPEAKING WITH YOU AND GETTING YOUR INSIGHT.
很高興與您交談並聽取您的見解。
1:17:14
HEAD OF THE GLOBAL ANTI-FINANCIAL CRIME PRACTICE
AND A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL.
他是全球反金融犯罪業務主管，也是大西洋理事會的高級研究員。
1:17:18
AND FOR MORE ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACT OF TARIFFS, WE
WANT TO BRING IN OUR NEXT GUEST.
關於關稅對供應鏈的影響，我們想請出下一位來賓。
1:17:26
FOUNDER AND C.E.O.
創辦人兼執行長。
1:17:27
OF A
LOGISTICS COMPANY THAT HELPS CUSTOMERS CUT DOWN ON
UNNECESSARY SHIPPING AND FULFILLMENT COSTS.
一家協助客戶減少不必要運輸和履行成本的物流公司。
1:17:32
GREAT TO SPEAK WITH YOU.
很高興與您對談。
1:17:35
CAN YOU GIVE US A LITTLE BIT
MORE OF AN IDEA OF HOW YOUR COMPANY WORKS?
能否多說明一下貴公司的運作方式？
1:17:38
HOW DO YOU DO EXACTLY THAT, CUTTING DOWN SOME OF THE RED
TAPE AND SOME OF THE MULTISTEP PROCESSES CURRENTLY INVOLVED IN
BRINGING PRODUCT OVER?
貴公司具體是如何做到減少目前產品運送過程中的繁文縟節與多步驟流程？
1:17:47
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> 當然可以。
1:17:48
FIRST OF ALL, THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME.
首先，非常感謝邀請。
1:17:51
TRADITIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN, LET’S SAY A BRAND WILL BUY 10,000
SHIRTS, PUT IT ON A BOAT, WAIT TWO MONTHS TO GET ACROSS THE
WATER.
在傳統供應鏈中，假設一個品牌購買一萬件襯衫，將其裝船，等待兩個月才能越洋運抵。
1:17:59
THEN THEY BRING IT TO THE BORDER, PAY IMPORT TAXES DAY
ONE AS IT GETS TO THE PORT.
抵達港口第一天，運至邊境時需繳納進口稅。
1:18:04
THEN THEY’RE GETTING THEIR
GOODS OVER FOUR TO SIX MONTHS.
然後他們需要四到六個月才能拿到貨物。
1:18:10
PORTLESS IS THE SAME MODEL THAT
POWERED SHEIN.
Portless 採用的是與 Shein 相同的營運模式。
1:18:13
WE SAY, DON’T PUT YOUR GOODS ON
A BOAT.
我們主張，不要將貨物裝船。
1:18:14
BRING IT TO OUR FACILITIES, WE
HAVE FACILITIES IN CHINA AND VIETNAM.
將其運至我們的設施，我們在中國和越南都有設施。
1:18:18
WE’LL GET IT ONE TO TWO DAYS AFTER PRODUCTION WHICH MEANS
YOU DON’T NEED TO BUY FOUR TO SIX MONTHS OF INVENTORY AT A
TIME.
我們會在生產完成後一到兩天內收到貨物，這意味著您無需一次性採購四到六個月的庫存。
1:18:25
ONCE WE GET IT, YOU SELL IT TO
YOUR CUSTOMER, WE’LL PICK, PACK AND HAVE THAT ORDER DELIVERED
ON AVERAGE SIX DAYS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
我們收到貨後，您將其賣給客戶，我們會進行揀貨、包裝，平均六天內將訂單送達美國本土各地。
1:18:33
THE CONSUMER GETS A LOCAL EXPERIENCE, TRACKING MEMBER,
ONE OF THE REGIONAL CARRIERS.
消費者享有在地體驗，可透過區域性物流業者追蹤貨物。
1:18:39
AND FROM -- FROM A CONSUMER
PERSPECTIVE, LOCAL EXPERIENCE.
從消費者的角度來看，這是本地化的體驗。
1:18:41
FROM A BRAND, LESS INVENTORY
NEEDS BECAUSE YOU’RE NEAR THE FACTORY.
對品牌而言，由於靠近工廠，庫存需求減少。
1:18:43
YOU DON’T HAVE TWO MONTHS ON WATER.
無需花費兩個月在海上運輸。
1:18:45
AS WELL AS YOU DON’T NEED TO PAY IMPORT TAX DAY ONE.
同時也無需在第一天支付進口稅。
1:18:50
THAT’S MASSIVE RIGHT NOW.
這在當下至關重要。
1:18:54
WE SPOKE TO BRAND YESTERDAY,
ABOUT TO IMPORT $1 MILLION INTO THE UNITED STATES, THEY WOULD
NEED TO COME UP WITH $1.14 MILLION CHECK TO PAY THE TAXES.
SCARLET: SHEIN WAS ABLE TO DO THIS, USE
THAT MODEL, AND ALSO EXPLOIT THE LOOPHOLE WHICH AVOIDED
IMPORT TAXES.
SCARLET: SHEIN 能夠做到這一點，使用那種模式，並利用了那個避開進口稅的漏洞。
1:19:12
HOW DO YOU DO THAT NOW THAT
THAT LOOPHOLE HAS BEEN CLOSED?
現在那個漏洞已經被堵上了，你要怎麼做？
1:19:16
>> GREAT QUESTION.
>> 好問題。
1:19:17
SO FIRST POSITION WE SAYS IS THE NOT A LOOPHOLE.
所以我們的第一個立場是，這不是一個漏洞。
1:19:21
IT’S THE LAW.
這是法律。
1:19:23
THERE WAS A LAW WHICH ANY ORDER
UNDER $100 WAS DUTY-FREE.
曾經有一項法律規定，任何低於 100 美元的訂單都是免稅的。
1:19:25
PEOPLE SAID THIS IS GOING TO
KILL SHEIN.
有人說這會讓 SHEIN 毀滅。
1:19:27
FUNDAMENTALLY INCORRECT.
這根本是錯的。
1:19:28
YES, THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY IMPORT TAXES LIKE EVERY
OTHER RETAILER AND THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE TO RAISE THEIR
PRICES LIKE EVERY OTHER
是的，他們將不得不像其他零售商一樣繳納進口稅，他們也將不得不像其他零售商一樣提高價格。
1:19:34
RETAILER A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF
MONEY.
零售商一定金額的錢。
1:19:37
BUT KEEP IN MIND, THOSE GOODS
ARE LOW-COST GOODS.
但請記住，這些商品是低成本商品。
1:19:39
$5 DRESS, $10 DRESS.
5 美元的連衣裙，10 美元的連衣裙。
1:19:42
SO THE $5 COST GOES TO 12DZ.50.
所以 5 美元的成本變成 12.50 美元。
1:19:46
A $10 GOES TO $24.50 BUT
THERE’S STILL PLENTY OF ROOM OF MARGIN.
10 美元變成 24.50 美元，但利潤空間仍然很大。
1:19:49
THE REASON THEY RUN THE MOST EFFICIENT SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL.
原因在於他們運營著最高效的供應鏈模式。
1:19:53
THEY HAVE INVENTORY NEAR THEIR FACTORIES, NO EXCESS INVENTORY.
他們在工廠附近設有庫存，沒有過多庫存。
1:19:56
NOW THEY ALSO HAVE FINANCIAL ADVANTAGE.
現在他們還有財務優勢。
1:19:58
WHERE TRADITIONAL BRANDS ARE PAYING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS DAY
ONE WHEN IT HITS THE PORTS, THEY’RE ONLY PAYING IT WHEN IT
CROSSES THE BORDER.
傳統品牌在貨物抵達港口的第一天就要支付數百萬美元，而他們只在貨物越過邊境時才支付。
1:20:04
SO IMPORT TAX IS GOING AWAY,
THAT’S FAIR GAME FOR EVERYONE.
進口稅即將取消，這對所有人來說都是公平的競爭環境。
1:20:08
THEY STILL HAVE THE FINANCIAL
ADVANTAGE AND THE SUPPLY CHAIN EFFICIENCY OF NOT HAVING EXCESS
INVENTORY.
他們在供應鏈效率和庫存管理方面仍具備財務優勢，無需積壓過多庫存。
1:20:15
ROMAINE: YOU HAVE SEEN MORE OF A
PRESENCE IN THE UNITED STATES?
ROMAINE：您是否發現他們在美國的能見度提高了？
1:20:17
THE REASON I ASK IS THERE’S
BEEN A LOT OF ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT SOME OF THE
COMPANIES THAT WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HAVE ACTUALLY SET
UP AT LEAST WAREHOUSING HERE IN
我之所以這麼問，是因為有許多坊間傳聞指出，我們討論過的某些公司，實際上已在
1:20:24
THE UNITED STATES TO TRY TO
BLUNT THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COSTS.
美國設立至少是倉儲設施，試圖以此緩解成本可能上升的衝擊。
1:20:29
>> WE’VE SEEN THAT MAINLY WITH
TEMU BUT I PUT THEM IN A DIFFERENT BUCKET.
>> 我們主要在 TEMU 身上看到這一點，但我將其歸為不同的類別。
1:20:32
THEY WERE TAKING MARKET SHARE FROM DOLLAR STORES.
它們正從一美元商店（Dollar Stores）手中奪取市場份額。
1:20:36
ONCE YOU’RE COMPETING WITH A DOLLAR STORE, EVERY 50 CENTS
MATTERS.
一旦你與一美元商店競爭，每五毛錢都很重要。
1:20:41
VERSUS SHEIN, THEY HAVE PLENTY
OF MARGIN TO STILL MAKE MONEY AND BE COST EFFECTIVE.
相比之下，SHEIN 有足夠的利潤空間來賺錢並保持成本效益。
1:20:46
TEMU ON THE OTHER HAND, PENNIES MATTER.
另一方面，對於 TEMU 來說，每一分錢都很關鍵。
1:20:48
NOW, THEY’RE GOING AFTER MORE AGGRESSIVE GOAL.
現在，它們正瞄準更激進的目標。
1:20:51
THEY WANT TO COMPETE AGAINST AMAZON.
它們希望與亞馬遜（Amazon）競爭。
1:20:53
RIGHT NOW THEY HAVE 08%
CROSS-BORDER BUSINESS.
目前，它們 80% 的業務是跨境業務。
1:20:56
20% LOCAL BUSINESS.
20% 是本地業務。
1:20:58
THEIR VISION IS TO GET TO AN 80% LOCAL, 20% CROSS-BORDER.
它們的願景是將比例調整為 80% 本地業務，20% 跨境業務。
1:21:01
THAT’S EXTREMELY AMBITIOUS.
這極具野心。
1:21:02
HOWEVER, THEY DO HAVE THE
BALANCE SHEET TO PURSUE THAT.
然而，它們確實擁有追求此目標的財務實力（Balance Sheet）。
1:21:04
ROMAINE:
IS THERE A SENSE HERE, I KNOW THAT YOUR BUSINESS HAS MADE A
BIG STAKE -- MADE A BIG BET ON CHINA AND THERE’S NO SENSE THAT
THAT’S GOING TO GO AWAY
ROMAINE：這裡是否有一種……我知道貴公司在中國下了很大的注——在中國投入了巨大的賭注，
1:21:12
COMPLETELY.
且沒有跡象顯示這會完全消失。
1:21:13
BUT WHEN YOU CONSIDER SOME OF THE COMPANIES THAT HAVE BEEN
LOOKING FOR OTHER ALTERNATIVES AROUND ASIA AND EVEN INTO LATIN
AMERICA AND AFRICA, DO YOU
但當你考慮到有些公司正在亞洲其他地區，甚至是拉丁美洲和非洲尋找替代方案時，您是否……
1:21:21
ANTICIPATE THAT WE’RE GOING TO
START TO SEE PORTLESS MAYBE SHIFT SOME OF ITS ATTENTION
THERE?
你是否預期 Portless 會開始將注意力轉移到那邊？
1:21:25
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> 絕對會。
1:21:25
WE’VE ALREADY BEEN IN VIETNAM FOR OVER A YEAR.
我們在越南已經超過一年了。
1:21:27
WE’RE GOING TO BE IN INDIA BY THE END OF THIS YEAR.
我們將在今年底前進軍印度。
1:21:30
END OF THE DAY, THIS IS AN EVOLUTION OF SUPPLY CHAIN-FREE
COMMERCE AND YOU HAVE TO RUN EFFICIENT SUPPLY CHAIN TO EVERY
PART IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL
說到底，這是免供應鏈商業模式的演進，為了取得成功，你必須將高效的供應鏈延伸到每個環節。
1:21:38
IN THIS CHAOTIC WORLD.
在這個混亂的世界裡。
1:21:40
SO AS LONG AS THERE’S AN AIRPORT, PORTLESS WILL BE THERE
TO SUPPORT ECOMMERCE BRANDS NEAR THEIR FACTORIES, SIX-DAY
DELIVERY, MASSIVE ADVANTAGES
THE CHIP MAKERS ARE THE ONES
GETTING HIT THE HARDEST, DOWN 4.1% FOR THE PHILADELPHIA
SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX.
晶片製造商受到的衝擊最大，費城半導體指數下跌 4.1%。
1:24:00
ROMAINE: WE’LL BE BACK IN A MOMENT.
ROMAINE：我們稍後回來。
1:24:01
THIS IS "THE CLOSE" ON BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社的「收盤」（THE CLOSE）節目。
1:24:33
SCARLET: NETFLIX REPORTS RESULTS
TOMORROW AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED AND THE STREAMER OFFERS
BOTH SECULAR GROWTH AND DEFENSIVE SAFETY.
SCARLET：Netflix 將在明天收盤後公布財報，該串流平台兼具長期增長潛力與防禦性安全性。
1:24:42
THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS.
兼具兩者之長。
1:24:44
JOINING US NOW IS DAVID WHO HAS
A BUY RATING ON NETFLIX WITH A PRICE TARGET OF $1025.
現在加入我們的是 David，他對 Netflix 給出買進評級，目標價為 1025 美元。
1:24:53
THE THEME HERE IS THAT NETFLIX IS SET TO WEATHER THE MACRO
ECONOMIC TURMOIL.
這裡的主題是 Netflix 準備好度過宏觀經濟的動盪。
1:24:57
HOW WILL NETFLIX MAKE THIS
CLEAR?
Netflix 將如何明確表達這一點？
1:25:02
HOW WILL THAT MANIFEST IN ITS
FORECAST?
這將如何體現在其財測中？
1:25:04
>> THEY’VE ALREADY PROVIDED
SOME GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR.
>> 他們已經提供了全年的指引。
1:25:09
BUT THAT WAS BEFORE WE HAD ALL
OF THIS TARIFF NEWS.
但那是在我們得知所有關稅新聞之前。
1:25:11
THAT COULD BE IMPACTING THE
RECESSION LATER ON.
這可能會在稍後影響經濟衰退。
1:25:13
BUT I THINK WHENEVER THEY DID
PROVIDE SOME GUIDANCE, THAT WAS REALLY STILL PROVIDING
THEMSELVES WITH SOME ROOM TO UNDERPROMISE AND OVERDELIVER.
但我認為，無論何時他們提供指引，他們其實都保留了餘地，以便低報預期並超出預期。
1:25:25
ONE OF THE BIG AREAS WHERE THEY COULD BE DELIVERING THAT
GROWTH, NOT JUST THIS YEAR, BUT INTO THE FUTURE, IS REALLY THE
SECULAR THEME FOR THE COMPANY,
他們能夠實現增長的一大領域，不僅是今年，未來也是如此，這其實是該公司的長期主題，
1:25:39
THEY’RE TAKING ADVERTISING
SHARE.
他們正在搶占廣告市場份額。
1:25:44
I THINK THAT THE ADVERTISING
OPPORTUNITY ON THE HUGE 300 MILLION SUBSCRIBER PLATFORM
THEY HAVE IS REALLY GOING TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DRIVER FOR
THEM.
我認為，在他們擁有的 3 億用戶龐大平台上，廣告機會將成為他們未來一個非常重要的推動力。
1:25:53
SCARLET: AND DO YOU THINK THEY’RE ABLE
TO CHARGE HIGHER ADVERTISING RATES AS A RESULT?
SCARLET: 你認為他們因此能夠收取更高的廣告費率嗎？
1:25:57
WHEN DO WE EXPECT THAT TO START TO SHOW UP?
我們預期何時會開始看到成效？
1:26:02
>> SO I THINK THEY STARTED OUT
CHARGING RATES THAT WERE TOO HIGH BUT THEY’VE COME DOWN TO
SOMETHING MORE PALATABLE THAT TO THEIR PEERS AND THAT’S
BROUGHT ADVERTISERS INTO THEIR
PLATFORM. I THINK IT’S PROBABLY STILL TOO EARLY FOR THE COMPANY TO BE
DISCRETELY DISCLOSING THEIR AD REVENUE BUT I THINK WE’VE
TRIANGLE LATER ON THE SIZE --
我認為現在要公司具體披露他們的廣告收入可能還太早，但我認為我們稍後會...
1:26:23
TRIANGLE LATER ON THE SIZING OF
HOW MUCH THEY’LL BE GENERATING THIS YEAR.
稍後會具體說明他們今年的營收規模。
1:26:26
I THINK THEY’LL ROUGHLY DOUBLE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT FROM LAST
YEAR.
我認為他們今年的營收大概會是去年的兩倍，或許再多一點。
1:26:30
I THINK THEY GET TO $3.2 BILLION THIS YEAR.
我認為他們今年會達到 32 億美元。
1:26:33
BUT IT’S GOING TO BE BACK WEIGHTED.
但會是後重前輕的走勢。
1:26:37
BASED ON THE RECENT TARIFF NEWS, ADVERTISERS DID START
PULLING BACK IN THE NEAR TERM.
根據最近的關稅新聞，廣告商確實在短期內開始縮減支出。
1:26:44
BUT I THINK THEY’LL BE
ACCELERATING AND THE COMPANY ALSO HAS TALKED ABOUT A VIEW TO
GETTING TO ADVERTISING ABOUT 10% OF THE REVENUES IN A FEW
YEARS.
但我認為他們將會加速，而且公司也談到未來幾年廣告收入佔總營收 10% 的目標。
1:26:54
ROMAINE: WITH REGARD TO YOUR OUTLOOK FOR
WHAT THOSE ADVERTISING NUMBERS MIGHT LOOK LIKE FOR QUARTER AT
LEAST, YOU LOWERED THAT GENERAL
ROMAINE: 關於你對廣告數字的展望，至少就季度來看，你下修了整體的指引，對吧？
1:26:59
GUIDANCE, RIGHT?
你原本預期的數字更高一些。
1:27:00
YOU WERE LOOKING FOR SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT MORE.
你現在的數字低了一些。
1:27:02
YOU’RE COMING IN A LITTLE BIT LESS.
你為什麼做這樣的調整？
1:27:03
WHY DID YOU MAKE THAT CHANGE?
>> 我認為部分原因是廣告商一直在縮減支出，但你也看到大約一半的新訂閱用戶是選擇較便宜的廣告方案。
1:27:07
>> I THINK THAT IN PART
ADVERTISERS HAVE BEEN PULLING BACK BUT YOU ALSO HAVE ROUGHLY
HALF OF NEW SUBSCRIBERS COMING ONTO THE CHEAPER AD TEARS.
公司——方案。
1:27:18
THE COMPANY -- TIERS.
公司目前還沒有完全用廣告方案的定價來彌補無廣告方案定價的差異，但假以時日會達到平衡。
1:27:20
THE COMPANY IS NOT MAKING UP
FOR IT YET IN THE AD TIER PRICING VERSUS THE AD-FREE
PRIZE PRICING BUT THAT WILL COME IN TIME.
ROMAINE: WHEN INVESTORS LOOK AROUND FOR
SAFETY IN THIS MARKET, ASSUMING THE MARKET TURMOIL CONTINUES,
DO YOU LOOK AT NETFLIX AS BEING
即使不是抗衰退，也是具備衰退韌性的股票？
1:28:09
ONE OF THOSE IF NOT
RECESSION-PROOF, RECESSION-RESILIENT TYPE OF
STOCKS?
>> 是的。我認為這個形容很貼切。
1:28:12
>> I DO. I THINK THAT IS AN APT TERM.
再次強調，他們在經濟衰退中會面臨的問題是廣告商更廣泛的撤資。
1:28:16
AGAIN, THE ISSUE THAT THEY
WOULD FACE IN A RECESSION IS BROADER ADVERTISER PULLBACK.
儘管這是 Netflix 的一個成長領域，但我認為這仍然是一個——這個領域，意指更廣泛的連網電視
1:28:22
EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A GROWTH AREA FOURNETTE FLICKS, -- FOR
NETFLIX, I THINK THAT’S AN AREA THAT’S STILL -- THAT AREA,
MEANING THE BROADER CONNECTED
和串流媒體市場，我認為今年廣告暫停（指廣告方案帶入的營收）增長了 15%，而
1:28:32
TV AND STREAMING MARKET, I
THINK THE AD SUSPENSION GROW IN THE 15% THIS YEAR WHILE
ADVERTISING IN OTHER MEDIA FORMS ARE POSSIBLY GOING TO BE
DECLINING.
其他媒體形式的廣告可能會下降。
1:28:41
SO AD BUDGETS ARE MOVING INTO
THIS KIND OF PLATFORM.
所以廣告預算正在轉移到這類平台。
1:28:46
THIS PLATFORM AT NETFLIX
SPECIFICALLY HAVING 300 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS AROUND THE GLOBE IS
WHERE ADVERTISERS WANT TO GO FOR A RETURN ON INVESTMENT.
Netflix 這個平台在全球擁有 3 億訂戶，正是廣告商尋求投資回報想去的地方。
1:28:54
SO I THINK THAT BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO KEEP A NETFLIX
SERVICE IN GOOD TIMES AND BAD, IT IS A VERY CHEAP FORM OF
ENTERTAINMENT, IF YOU COMPARE
所以我認為，因為人們無論在景氣好壞時都會保留 Netflix 服務，這是一種非常便宜的娛樂形式，
1:29:09
THE $18 A MONTH COST OF AN
AD-FREE TIER AND ASSUMING TWO HOURS OF VIEWING A DAY, THAT’S
ONLY 30 CENT PERCENT DAY OF ENTERTAINMENT.
如果你比較每月 18 美元的無廣告方案費用，假設每天看兩小時，那每天每人的娛樂成本
1:29:17
ROMAINE:
ALL RIGHT.
只要 30 美分。
1:29:19
DAVID, SENIOR ANALYST AT
SEAPORT RESEARCH PARTNERS.
ROMAINE：好的。
1:29:21
A NICE PREVIEW OF NETFLIX.
DAVID，Seaport Research Partners 的高級分析師。
1:29:23
WE’LL HAVE FULL COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTER THE BELL HERE.
對 Netflix 很好的預覽。
1:29:25
ME AND SCARLET, ON THOSE EARNINGS OUT OF NETFLIX.
我們將在明天收盤後進行完整報導。
1:29:28
AGAIN, WE’RE NOT GOING TO THOSE SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS THAT
EVERYBODY PAYS ATTENTION TO.
我和 SCARLET 將為您帶來 Netflix 的財報。
1:29:32
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT $10 BILLION
IN REVENUE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
ANALYSTS’ ESTIMATES AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, A PRETTY STRONG
PROFITABILITY IN CASH FLOW.
再次強調，我們不會討論大家都關注的訂戶數字。
1:29:39
CASH FLOW AT $2 BILLION.
我們談的是第一季營收 100 億美元，這是基於分析師預估的平均值，更重要的是，相當強勁的
1:29:41
E.P.S. LOOKS LIKE 568 IS THE CONSENSUS.
每股盈餘（E.P.S.）的共識預測似乎是568。
1:29:43
SCARLET: IF PEOPLE DOWNGRADE THE
PACKAGES THEY HAVE, THEY’LL PROBABLY DOWNGRADE TO THE
ADVERTISING TIER WHICH BRINGS IN MORE REVENUE FOURNETTE
FLICKS AND IT’S -- FOR NETFLIX
The 'FedPut' referstothemarketbeliefthattheFederalReservewillcutratesorintervenetosupportassetpricesiftheeconomyormarketfallstoomuch. Thevideohighlightsthatthishopewas 'dashed'.
