EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET
DAY.
掌握收盤時刻的致勝關鍵所需的一切。
00:14
THIS IS "THE CLOSE." ♪ ROMAINE:
FIRST SESSION OF THOSE FOR THE MARKETS, TRYING TO WASHINGTON.
這是《收盤》。♪ Romaine：市場的第一節交易時段，正試圖向華盛頓靠攏。
00:24
BUT IS THERE ANYONE LISTENING?
但真的有人在聽嗎？
00:27
LIFE FROM STUDIO 2 IN BLOOMBERG
HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK.
這裡是紐約彭博總部的2號直播間，我是 Romaine Bostick。
00:32
SCARLET:
AND I'M ALIX STEEL.
我是 Scarlet：我是 Alix Steel。
00:35
THE LESSON, DON'T TAKE RISK
UNLESS THERE IS CERTAINTY.
教訓是，除非有十足把握，否則不要冒險。
00:40
THE S&P IS DOWN A WHOPPING FIVE
POINT 5%.
標普500指數大跌 5.5%。
00:42
THE MOST SINCE MARCH OF 2020.
創下自2020年3月以來的最大跌幅。
00:43
I COULD GO ON WITH THE SUPERLATIVES BUT I WILL MOVE ON
TO WHERE POLICE ARE PUTTING MONEY.
我還可以繼續列出各種「創紀錄」的形容詞，但我將轉向資金正在進駐的領域。
00:47
THAT IS THE BOND MARKET.
那就是債券市場。
00:52
THE 10-YEAR IS DOWN FOUR OR
FIVE BASIS POINTS.
10年期公債殖利率下跌 4 到 5 個基點。
00:56
THE DOLLAR ALSO WITH SOME
INTERESTING PRICE ACTION.
美元走勢也出現了一些有趣的價格波動。
00:59
THE DOLLAR INDEX AT THE LOWEST
LEVEL SINCE THE ELECTION, THEN IT RALLIED THE MOST SINCE THE
ELECTION.
美元指數跌至大選以來的最低點，隨後反彈至大選以來的最大漲幅。
01:05
A LOT OF ACTION IN THE CURRENCY
MARKET.
外匯市場交易相當熱絡。
01:07
FRUIT GETTING RIPPED, $62 A
BARREL.
水果慘遭拋售，每桶62美元。
01:13
CRUDE -- GETTING WHIPPED, $62 A
BARREL.
原油——遭到拋售，每桶62美元。
01:17
ROMAINE: IT'S THE MOST VOLATILE DAY FOR
FINANCIAL MARKETS IN FIVE MONTHS, CAPPING ONE OF THE MOST
CONSEQUENTIAL WEEK FOR
ROMAINE：這是金融市場五個月來波動最劇烈的一天，也為五年來
01:21
FINANCIAL MARKETS IN FIVE YEARS.
金融市場最重要的一週畫下句點。
01:25
THE S&P IS DOWN 10% FROM THE ALL-TIME HIGH.
史坦普500指數已從歷史高點下跌10%。
01:29
SO, TOO, IS THE INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE.
工業平均指數也是如此。
01:30
NASDAQ 100 ON THE EDGE OF A BEAR MARKET.
那斯達克100指數正處於熊市邊緣。
01:35
DOW TRANSPORTS, RUSSELL 2000 AND THE KBW BANK INDEX ARE
ALREADY IN WITH THE BEAR.
道瓊運輸指數、羅素2000指數與KBW銀行指數早已進入熊市。
01:43
TODAY, THIS IS ON PACE TO
SURPASS THE RECORD.
今日，此數據即將超越紀錄。
01:46
IT IS CREATING RIPPLE EFFECTS
ACROSS THE BROADER CAPITAL MARKETS.
這正在更廣泛的資本市場中引發漣漪效應。
01:48
STUBHUB CHIME KLARNA ALL SEEM TO BE POSTPONING PLANS OF
THEIR IPOS.
StubHub、Chime、Klarna 似乎都推遲了其IPO計畫。
01:56
NINTENDO DELAYING ORDERS FOR
THE NEW SWITCH 2 BECAUSE OF TARIFF UNCERTAINTY.
任天堂因關稅不確定性，延遲新Switch 2的訂單。
02:01
STELLANTIS OFFERING DISCOUNTED PRICING FOR SOME VEHICLES AMID
CONSUMER ANXIETY.
Stellantis 在消費者焦慮之際，為部分車輛提供折扣價。
02:07
AND NOT A SINGLE CORPORATION
TODAY OR YESTERDAY HAS BEEN BRAVE ENOUGH TO SELL NEW DEBT.
今日或昨日，沒有任何一家公司有足夠的勇氣發行新債。
02:12
JAY POWELL WAS EXPECTED TO SUGARCOAT THINGS IN THAT BIG
WAY THAT ONLY HE CAN.
市場原本預期傑伊·鮑爾（Jay Powell）會以他獨有的方式粉飾太平。
02:18
INSTEAD, HE DELIVERED A
SPOONFUL OF MEDICINE THAT WAS HARD FOR THE MARKET TO SWALLOW,
SAYING THE TARIFFS, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WHICH MAY BE
LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
相反地，他卻喂了一顆市場難以吞嚥的苦藥，表示關稅的經濟影響可能比預期更大。
02:29
>> BENEFITS ARE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED, IT IS BECOMING CLEAR THAT TARIFF INCREASES WILL BE
LARGER THAN EXPECTED.
>> 通膨居高不下，關稅上調幅度將比預期更大，這一點正變得愈發清晰。
02:35
THE SAME IS LIKELY TO BE TRUE
OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS WHICH WILL INCLUDE HIGHER INFLATION
AND SLOWER GROWTH.
經濟影響很可能也是如此，這將包括更高的通膨與更緩慢的增長。
02:41
THE SIZE AND DURATION OF THESE
EFFECTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
這些影響的規模與持續時間仍不確定。
02:43
ROMAINE:
JAY POWELL SPEAKING EARLIER THERE.
羅曼（Romaine）：
02:45
HE DID NOTHING TO HELP MARKETS -- NOT SURE THERE WAS ANYTHING
HE COULD TO, GIVE THEM THE SPIKE IN VOLATILITY THIS
MORNING.
他對市場毫無助益——不確定他是否能做些什麼，今早市場波動性飆升。
02:54
SCARLET: NICE SETUP FOR ME.
史嘉蕾（Scarlet）：這給了我很好的切入點。
02:56
THE WHITE LINE IS THE VIX.
白線代表VIX（恐慌指數）。
03:00
THE BLUE LINE IS THE S&P.
藍線代表標普500指數。
03:02
THIS GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO 2001.
這一路回溯至2001年。
03:05
I WANT TO POINT OUT THE BIG SPIKES WE HAVE HAD.
我想指出我們經歷過的幾次大幅波動。
03:08
THE NOTABLE ONE HERE IN 2009 WHEN THE INDEX MOVED LOWER FOR
THE S&P.
其中值得注意的是 2009 年，當時標普指數走低。
03:14
YOU COULD SEE A LITTLE SPIKE
HERE, THIS S&P GOES LOWER.
你可以看到這裡有一個小波峰，標普指數持續走低。
03:18
2020 DURING COVID, A BIG SPIKE
IN THE VIX IN D.C.
2020 年疫情期間，VIX 指數出現大幅波動。
03:22
EQUITIES MOVE LOWER.
股市走低。
03:23
WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR ACTION HAPPENING.
我們看到了類似的走勢正在發生。
03:26
NOW YOU HAVE THE VIX AT 44 -- NOT SEEN SINCE 2020.
現在 VIX 指數來到 44——這是自 2020 年以來未見的水準。
03:29
BIGGEST TWO-DAY JUMP SINCE 2018 ONE POINT.
自 2018 年以來最大的兩日漲幅。
03:32
DO WE NEED TO SEE MORE SELLING THE S&P?
我們是否需要看到標普指數更多賣壓？
03:34
ON THE FLIPSIDE, ARE WE FINALLY SEEING THIS BECOME A MACRO
EVENT AND FINALLY SEEING IT BECOME
CAPITULATION -- THE HIGHER VIX,
反過來說，我們是否終於看到這演變成一個宏觀事件，並最終看到投降盤出現——VIX 指數越高，
03:44
YOU GET MORE OF A SELLOFF.
跌勢就會越重。
03:44
MAJORITY OF THE STOCKS ON THE S&P ARE ALL SELLING OFF.
標普指數中的大多數股票都在下跌。
03:52
20% OF STOCKS NOW MAKING
52--WEEK LOWS, 20 6% WILL BE ABOVE THEIR 200 DAY MOVING
AVERAGES.
目前有 20% 的股票創下 52 週低點，20.6% 的股票將高於其 200 日移動平均線。
03:56
ROMAINE: WE ARE BACK TO SOCIAL RULES FOR
MOST OF THE MAJOR INDICES THE S&P NOW DEEP INTO OVERSOLD
TERRITORY WITH THE 14-DAY
ROMAINE：我們回到主要指數的技術規則，標普指數目前深度進入超賣區域，14 日
04:08
HERBICIDE DOWN AROUND 23.
RSI 指數約在 23。
04:09
THE VIX BACK NEAR THE HIGHS OF THE DAY.
VIX 指數回到接近當日高點。
04:11
YOUR QUESTION ABOUT
CAPITULATION, LET'S POSE THAT TO OUR FIRST GUEST AS WE KICK
YOU OFF TO THE CLOTHES, JULIAN EMANUEL -- KICK YOU OFF TO THE
"THE CLOSE," JULIAN EMANUEL.
OUR PHONE CALLS WITH CLIENTS TODAY HAD A DISTINCTLY
DIFFERENT ONE THAN THEY HAD YESTERDAY.
我們今天與客戶的電話會議與昨天截然不同。
04:32
FEAR. IT'S OBVIOUSLY VERY UNCOMFORTABLE.
恐懼。這顯然非常令人不安。
04:34
BUT THIS IS HOW PROBLEMS IN MARKETS START.
但市場問題就是這樣開始的。
04:38
YOU MENTIONED RECORD OPTION TRADING VOLUME.
你提到了創紀錄的期權交易量。
04:42
THE BEARISH SENTIMENT, THE READINGS THAT WE ONLY SEE MORE
BEARISH AT THE BOTTOM IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN 19, AND IN
THE BOTTOM OF THE GULF WAR
看空情緒，這些讀數我們只在 19 年金融危機底部，以及波灣戰爭底部才見過更看空的。
04:50
CRISIS.
危機。
04:57
BUT ESSENTIALLY, YOU NEED TO SEE A
BIT OF THAT FEAR.
但本質上，你需要看到一點那種恐懼。
05:04
IN A TYPICAL MARKET, CADENCE
AROUND MAJOR VOLATILITY SHOCKS LIKE THIS, AND DO REMEMBER THAT
CHART YOU SHOWED OF THE VIX, RELATIVELY SPIKES DON'T LAST
VERY LONG.
在一個典型的市場中，圍繞像這樣的 major 波動性衝擊的節奏，請記住你展示的 VIX 圖表，相對的飆升不會持續很久。
05:09
OKAY? THAT IS WHY THEY ARE CALLED
SPIKES.
好嗎？這就是為什麼它們被稱為飆升。
05:11
YOU DO TEND TO HAVE A TURNAROUND.
你確實傾向於會出現轉折。
05:14
BUT TYPICALLY TRADERS ARE VERY RELUCTANT TO TAKE RISK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
但通常交易員非常不願意在週末前承擔風險。
05:20
MONDAY TEND TO BE PROBABLY
DIFFICULT.
週一往往可能會很困難。
05:22
THEY DON'T CALL A TURNAROUND
TUESDAY FOR NOTHING.
他們把轉折日稱為週二不是沒有原因的。
05:25
ROMAINE: I AM CURIOUS THOUGH ONE THING
WE SAW TODAY THAT MAY BE GETS INTO THE MINDS OF INVESTORS IS
THAT HUGE SPIKE HIGHER THAT WE
SAW IN RETAIL AND APPAREL
STOCKS THERE WERE HEADLINES SAYING THAT WE ARE SEEKING A
THREE MONTH EXTENSION.
特朗普 Put 似乎暗示他對談判持開放態度。
05:38
TRUMP PUT SEEMS TO SUGGEST HE
WAS OPEN TO NEGOTIATION.
而且你有像 Nike 和 Wayfair 這樣嚴重依賴全球供應鏈的大型零售商，從 deep in the red（嚴重虧損）變為 high into the green（大幅上漲）。
05:42
AND YOU HAD BIG RETAILERS
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN LIKE NIKE AND
WAYFAIR GO FROM DEEP IN THE RED TO HIGH INTO THE GREEN.
大多數這些股票都保持在上漲狀態。
05:51
MOST OF THOSE NAMES HAVE STAYED IN THE GREEN.
這是否是一個投資者應該認為萬事大吉的跡象？
05:54
IS THAT A SIGN INVESTORS SHOULD GET THE SEMBLANCE OF AN ALL CLEAR?
JULIAN：這是一個跡象。
06:01
JULIAN: IT'S A SIGN.
已經造成了很多損害——我們都可以承認這一點。
06:02
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF DAMAGE DONE -- WE CAN ALL
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT.
已經造成了很多損害——我們都可以承認這一點。
06:06
THE ONE THING IS IN OUR MIND,
WE HAVE NOT DONE SUFFICIENT DAMAGE TO SAY THAT THE
RECESSION MOVE TO ANYONE BEST CASE.
我們心中唯一的想法是，
06:10
WE DON'T THINK THAT IS THE
CASE.
我們認為情況並非如此。
06:12
IF YOU ACCEPT THAT AND YOU BELIEVE THAT THERE IS GOING TO
BE SOME PROGRESS, DEALS DONE, ET CETERA -- AND VIETNAM WAS A
GOOD EXAMPLE OF THAT -- THE
如果你接受這一點，並且相信將會有一些進展、交易完成等等——越南就是一個很好的例子——
06:24
APPETITE TO PUT MONEY TO WORK
IS STILL GOING TO BE THERE LITTLE INTERVIEW.
投入資金運作的意願仍然會存在，稍作訪談。
06:31
SCARLET:
THE LAST FEW YEARS IT HAS BEEN U.S.
SCARLET：
06:32
EXCEPTIONALISM AND CAPITAL
FLOWS INTO THE U.S..
的例外主義以及資本流入美國。
06:35
SOME OF THIS WILL BE STRUCTURAL
CHANGE.
其中一些將是結構性變化。
06:37
IN THAT CASE OF DOES THAT
CAPITAL MOVE OUT OF THE U.S.?
在這種情況下，這些資本會流出美國嗎？
06:42
JULIAN:
WE DON'T THINK IT HAS TO BE THE ZERO-SUM GAME THAT PEOPLE ARE
SAYING.
JULIAN：
06:48
FRANKLY, DURING CAPITAL
FORMATION.
坦白說，在資本形成期間。
06:49
WE SPEND GRANTED THE EXCEPTIONALISM OF THE U.S.
我們確實利用了美國的例外主義
06:51
VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN VERY EXTREME IN THE
LAST DECADE.
相對於世界其他地區在過去十年非常極端。
06:55
WE GO BACK TO THE LESS WHERE
THE REST OF THE WORLD OUTPERFORMED THE U.S., IT WAS
2003-2007.
我們回顧世界其他地區表現優於美國的時期，那是
07:04
IT DIDN'T MEAN THAT YOU WERE
GOING TO BE A SELLER AND HAVE BAD RETURNS IN U.S.
這並不意味著你將成為賣家並在美國獲得糟糕的回報。
07:11
STOCKS. U.S.
美國股票。
07:12
STOCKS ROSE 100% DURING THE PERIOD.
美國股票在那段期間上漲了100%。
07:16
SO WE THINK THERE IS AN
ARGUMENT TO BE MADE ONCE WE GET SOME MORE CLARITY THAT ALL
BOATS WILL FLOAT.
因此，我們認為一旦我們獲得更多明確性，所有船隻都會浮起來，這是有道理的。
07:20
SCARLET: ONCE WE GET THE CRAZY.
SCARLET：一旦我們擺脫了瘋狂。
07:24
MEANTIME, READY TO OUT?
同時，準備出場？
07:28
JULIAN: AGAIN, IT'S TOO LATE TO PROTECT
FROM A NUPTIALS POINT OF VIEW.
JULIAN：再說一次，從避險的角度來看，現在已經太晚了。
07:34
ALSO THE DEFENSIVE SECTORS --
HEALTH CARE AND ENERGY, I MEAN, LOOK AT ENERGY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
還有防禦性類股——我指的是醫療保健和能源，看看能源過去這幾天的走勢。
07:43
THIS IS A TIME WHERE INSTEAD OF
THINKING ABOUT WHERE YOU HIDE OUT AS A LONG-TERM INVESTOR,
YOU LOOK AT YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION AND WHAT YOU SHOULD
BE DOING IS BEING VERY DILIGENT
現在這個時刻，與其想著長期投資人該躲到哪裡，不如檢視你的資產配置，你真正該做的是非常謹慎
07:54
AND DISCIPLINED ABOUT REDUCING
YOUR FIXED INCOME EXPOSURE AND GENTLY TIPTOEING BACK INTO
STOCKS.
且有紀律地降低固定收益曝險，並逐步謹慎地重返股市。
08:00
ROMAINE: REDUCING FIXED INCOME EXPOSURE
WITH THE IDEA THAT MAYBE WE ARE NEAR THE BOTTOM AND EQUITIES SO
IN THEORY, YOU COULD GET A
ROMAINE：降低固定收益曝險，是基於認為我們可能已接近底部，因此理論上，你或許能獲得
08:10
BETTER RETURN?
更好的報酬？
08:10
JULIAN:
THAN IF YOU THINK ABOUT HOW ASSET ALLOCATION WORKS, YOU
AGREE ALLOCATE DURING EXTREME MOVES.
JULIAN：如果你了解資產配置的運作方式，你會同意在極端波動時進行配置。
08:17
WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT STOCKS AND BONDS -- REMEMBER, PART OF
WHAT HAD BEEN DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS ENTIRE BULL MARKET IS THAT
HE HAD AN EXTENDED PERIODS
想想看股票和債券——記住，這波整個牛市的不同之處在於，
08:26
WHERE BOND YIELDS ROSE AT THE
SAME TIME STOCKS WERE RISING.
曾有很長一段時間，債券殖利率上升的同時，股票也在上漲。
08:30
SO IT'S NOT GOING TO BE SORT OF
THIS RISK-OFF MENTALITY INTO INFINITY.
所以，這種避險心態不會無限期地持續下去。
08:37
ROMAINE: DO WE GET BACK TO THAT RISK-ON
MENTALITY THAT REALLY SORT OF PROPELLED THIS MARKET THE LAST
COUPLE OF YEARS?
ROMAINE：我們會回到那種推動過去幾年市場的 risk-on（追逐風險）心態嗎？
08:42
JULIAN: OH, IT WILL TAKE A HEALING
PROCESS, NO QUESTION.
JULIAN：哦，這需要一個修復過程，毫無疑問。
08:46
CAN WE? WE DO THINK WE CAN AT SOME
POINT.
我們能回到那種心態嗎？我們認為在某個時間點是可以的。
08:49
BUT YOU WILL NEED TO SEE FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS THAT
RESOLVE SOME OF THIS POLICY UNCERTAINTY.
但你需要看到能解決部分政策不確定性的基本面催化劑。
08:54
ROMAINE:
MORE OF A PERSONAL QUESTION -- AS YOU WERE SITTING ON THE
SIDELINES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LISTENING TO THE PRESIDENT
SPEAK AND THEN SEEING THE
ROMAINE：一個更個人的問題——當你週三晚上在場邊觀望，聽著總統演講，
09:05
MARKET REACTION START TO UNFOLD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WERE YOU AT ALL WORRIED?
然後看著市場反應在接下來的幾個小時內展開，你有絲毫擔心嗎？
09:08
I KNOW YOU GENERALLY HAVE OPTIMISM, EVEN IN BAD TIMES,
BUT WAS THERE EVER A SENSE WHERE YOU FELT, OK, THIS MAY BE
A LOT WORSE THAN I THOUGHT?
我知道你通常很樂觀，即使在糟糕的時刻，但有沒有一刻讓你覺得，好吧，這可能比我預想的要糟糕得多？
09:18
JULIAN:
LOOK, WHENEVER YOU HAVE A SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE YOU ARE
CALLING THE PHRASE "SMOOT-HAWLEY"
INTERACTION, YOU CAN'T GET AWAY
DOWNSIDE, THAT IT'S A VERY HARD
PLACE FOR THE FED.
下行，這對聯準會來說是一個非常艱難的處境。
11:05
HE ALSO TALKED ABOUT HOW IT
WOULD TAKE SEVERAL QUARTERS, EVEN WITH THE DECLINES IN
COMMODITY PRICES THAT WE ARE SEEING OUT THERE .
他還談到，即使我們看到大宗商品價格下跌，這也需要幾個季度的時間。
11:15
THE PASS-THROUGH OF THESE TARIFFS TO CONSUMERS IN TERMS
OF CONSUMER INFORMATION IS STILL ENOUGH THAT THE FED WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO CUT AS MUCH AS
這些關稅對消費者的傳導，就消費者的資訊而言，仍然足以讓聯準會無法像市場希望的那樣大幅降息。
11:24
THE MARKETS WOULD LIKE IT TO
PREEMPTIVELY.
市場希望它能先發制人地降息。
11:26
ALIX: SO WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH, BECAUSE POWELL TALKED ABOUT THE
RISK TO INFLATION, IN SOME
艾莉克斯：那麼你認為他們實際上能完成什麼，因為鮑爾談到了通膨的風險，在某些方面，比成長更為重要。
11:34
WAYS, A LITTLE MORE TO THE
FOREGROUND THAN GROWTH.
WAYS, A LITTLE MORE TO THE
11:36
DIANE: EXACTLY.
DIANE: EXACTLY.
11:38
AND THIS IS -- REMEMBER, IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS TARIFFS
TALK HAS BEEN RATCHETING UP AND ACTUAL TARIFFS HAVE BEEN
LEVIED, THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND
AND THIS IS -- REMEMBER, IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AS TARIFFS
11:52
LEADERSHIP HAVE TALKED ABOUT
INVOKING THE 1970'S AS A CAUTIONARY TALE.
LEADERSHIP HAVE TALKED ABOUT
11:57
THE WRONG THING TO DO WHEN THE EMBERS OF INFLATION ARE STILL
SMOLDERING IS TO CUT WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A SUPPLY
SHOP THAT IS LIKELY TO ALSO
THE WRONG THING TO DO WHEN THE EMBERS OF INFLATION ARE STILL
12:08
HAVE A STAGFLATIONARY ASPECT TO
IT .
HAVE A STAGFLATIONARY ASPECT TO
12:10
OVER THE LONGER HAUL, THE FED'S
GOAL IS TO GET BOTH FULL EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY.
OVER THE LONGER HAUL, THE FED'S
12:16
YOU CAN'T ACHIEVE THAT IN THE LESSONS OF ANY OTHER CENTRAL
BANK AND IN THE 1970'S, IF YOU CUT TOO SOON TO EASE THE
PRESSURE ON
YOU CAN'T ACHIEVE THAT IN THE LESSONS OF ANY OTHER CENTRAL
12:25
EMPLOYMENT.
EMPLOYMENT.
12:25
THAT COULD ACTUALLY GIVE US A MORE PERNICIOUS BOUT OF
INFLATION.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY GIVE US A MORE PERNICIOUS BOUT OF
12:29
IT WOULD BE HARDER TO GET RID
OF.
IT WOULD BE HARDER TO GET RID
12:31
STAGFLATION.
STAGFLATION.
12:32
THEY DON'T WANT TO GET INTO
THAT SCENARIO.
THEY DON'T WANT TO GET INTO
12:34
ROMAINE: I'M CURIOUS, WHEN WE LOOK AT
THE BUSINESS SIDE OF IT, THE PEOPLE WHO WILL
EFFECTIVELY BE MAKING DECISIONS
ROMAINE: I'M CURIOUS, WHEN WE LOOK AT
12:41
ABOUT WHETHER TO LAY OFF OR AT
LEAST CURTAIL HIRING ALTOGETHER, IS THERE A MESSAGE
THAT THE POLICYMAKERS COULD SEND TO THAT COHORT TO HOLD THE
LINE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER?
ABOUT WHETHER TO LAY OFF OR AT
12:54
BECAUSE IF INDEED THIS ENDS UP
BEING TRANSITORY -- FOR LACK OF A RE-FREEZE -- THEN MAYBE YOU
DON'T DO ANYTHING?
BECAUSE IF INDEED THIS ENDS UP
13:02
DIANE: WELL, AT THE END OF THE DAY, A
LOT OF THE BUSINESSES WE ARE DEALING WITH ARE FEELING A BIT
OF PARALYSIS FROM THE
DIANE: WELL, AT THE END OF THE DAY, A
13:10
UNCERTAINTY ITSELF.
UNCERTAINTY ITSELF.
13:11
BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH THEY SHOULD TRY TO HEDGE
TARIFFS , WHERE HE WILL STAY IN PLACE, IS IT WORTH IT TO
RESHUFFLE SUPPLY CHAINS WHEN WE
BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH THEY SHOULD TRY TO HEDGE
13:22
COULD SEE THESE KINDS OF
TARIFFS BE LISTED WITH THE STROKE OF A PEN.
COULD SEE THESE KINDS OF
13:27
THERE COULD BE A MAJOR SHIFT IN POLICY, THE MAJOR COURSE
CORRECTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION ON TARIFFS WHICH
WOULD CHANGE THE TRAJECTORY.
政策可能會出現重大轉變，也就是行政當局在關稅政策上的一次重大路線修正，這將改變發展的軌跡。
13:35
BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN A
SITUATION WHERE IT IS VERY HARD TO, EVEN WITH THE TARIFFS WE
ALREADY HAD IN PLACE, OF NOT SEEING SOME KIND OF A MILD BOUT
OF STAGFLATION.
但目前的局勢是，即使維持現有的關稅水準，也很難避免出現某種程度的溫和停滯性通膨。
13:50
THAT IS WHAT IS THE OPTIMISTIC
SCENARIO.
這是最樂觀的情景。
13:52
AND THAT IS BECAUSE EVEN IF THE
ADMINISTRATION WERE TO RATCHETING BACK ON MANY OF ITS
TARIFFS, IT STILL HAS MANY TARIFFS GOING IN PLACE, AND
ADDITIONAL WORK BEING DONE ON
這是因為即使行政當局收回部分關稅措施，仍有多項關稅持續實施，並且正在推動額外的工作。
14:04
TARIFFS TO LEVEL
ON -- TO LEVY ON SEMICONDUCTORS AND
PHARMACEUTICALS GOING FORWARD.
針對半導體和藥品課徵關稅的規劃。
14:09
ROMAINE:
THEN HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE -- IF WE DO GET TO A
STAGFLATIONARY SCENARIO -- WHAT CAN BE DONE TO PULL US OUT OF
THAT?
羅曼：那麼需要多長時間——如果我們真的陷入停滯性通膨的情景——我們能做些什麼來擺脫這種困境？
14:19
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS MAKING THE ROUNDS IN THE MEDIA,
INCLUDING THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS CHAIR HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN POSITING THE IDEA
包括經濟顧問委員會主席在內的多位川普政府官員，近期頻繁接受媒體訪問。
14:27
THAT ONCE WE GET TO
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE AND TAX CUTS, SOME OF THESE OTHER
POLICY PROPOSALS, THAT THERE COULD BE THE ECONOMIC JUICE
THAT WOULD W IF NOT COMPLETELY
提出這樣的想法：一旦國會預算辦公室（CBO）通過減稅及其他政策提案，或許能注入經濟動能。
14:42
ERASE THE IMPACT WITH TARIFFS.
進而抵銷關稅帶來的衝擊。
14:45
DIANE: WHAT WE SEE, AND IT WOULD DO
HAVE EXPANSIONS -- AND WE DO HAVE EXPENSES TO
TAX CUTS IN 2026 CAN HAVE
黛安：我們看到的是，這些措施確實能帶來擴張效應——我們確實有支出。
14:54
SEVERAL QUARTERS WHERE YOU GET
UNLIMITED INFORMATION.
2026年的減稅政策可能會帶來連續幾季的無限資訊。
14:57
THEN IT COMES OFF AS THE FED
HOLDS THE LINE AND IS THEN ABLE TO START CUTTING LATE IN THE
YEAR, NOT AS SOON AS FINANCIAL MARKETS WOULD LIKE.
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT CHAIRMAN POWELL WAS TELEGRAPHING TODAY.
這正是鮑爾主席今天所傳達的訊息。
15:10
AND THEN AS WE GET INTO 2026, THE EFFECTS TEND TO DISSIPATE
MORE AND YOU GET A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A BOOST FROM THOSE
EXTENSIONS AND EXPANSIONS TO
隨著我們進入2026年，這些效應會逐漸消退，而這些減稅政策的延續和擴張會帶來些許提振。
15:19
TAX CUTS. WE HAVE THAT IN OUR FORECAST.
這是我們預測中的部分。
15:23
BUT THAT STILL DOESN'T STOP THE
GROWTH RATE FROM BEING SUBDUED, EVEN IN 2026, IF THE TARIFFS
STAY ON.
但若關稅持續存在，這仍無法阻止2026年的成長率維持低迷。
15:35
THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER, THE IMMEDIATE EFFECT TENDS TO TAPER OFF, BUT THEY
DON'T GO AWAY UNTIL THEY ARE FULLY LIFTED, OR UNTIL WE GET
MORE RESOLUTION AS TO WHERE WE
這點非常重要：關稅的直接影響往往會逐漸減弱，但除非完全取消，或我們對未來走向有更明確的結論。
15:47
ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE.
否則它們不會消失。
15:48
THAT WAYS ON UNCERTAINTY.
這加重了不確定性。
15:50
WE HAVE EVENTS IN CONGRESS
ITSELF PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE IDEA OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
TARIFFS THAT ARE BEING DONE VIA EXECUTIVE ORDER.
國會內部也有反對聲浪，反對透過行政命令實施高額關稅的做法。
15:58
ALIX:
YOU MENTIONED INFLATION GOING TO RAISE QUICKLY, HOW QUICKLY
DOES GROWTH FALL IN COMPARISON?
ALIX:
16:04
DIANE: WE ACTUALLY HAVE GROWTH
CONTRACTING IN THE SECOND QUARTER NOW BY A VERY MILD
AMOUNT, AND THEN GOING INTO THE THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER.
DIANE: 我們目前實際上看到第二季成長正溫和收縮，並持續到第三季和第四季。
16:15
WE HAVE A THREE-QUARTER CONTRACTION.
我們將經歷連續三季的收縮。
16:17
BUT NOT A MAJOR CONTRACTION -- A SLOW CONTRACTION.
但這不是大幅收縮——而是一種緩慢的收縮。
16:21
JUST BARELY INTO THE NEGATIVE.
僅勉強進入負值區間。
16:24
BUT THAT IS A RECESSION.
但這就是經濟衰退。
16:26
AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
MOVING UP, BUT SLOWLY.
且失業率正在攀升，但速度緩慢。
16:31
WE HAVE SEEN PRIME AGE
PARTICIPATION IN THE LABOR FORCE IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS IN
A ROW ACTUALLY DECLINE, EVEN AS THE OVERALL PARTICIPATION RATE
PICKED UP IN THE LAST MONTH.
我們過去兩個月已見到壯年勞動參與率實際下降，儘管整體參與率在上個月有所回升。
16:40
PRIME AGE PARTICIPATION HAS
DECLINED.
壯年勞動參與率已經下降。
16:44
PART OF THAT IS DUE TO THE FACT
THAT FOREIGN-BORN WORKERS PARTICIPATE AT A HIGHER RATE
AND THEY ARE NOT ENTERING THE LABOR FORCE AS READILY AS THEY
HAD BEEN.
部分原因是外國出生的勞工參與率較高，而他們進入勞動力市場的意願不如以往。
16:53
ALIX: STELLANTIS AND FORD HAVE BEEN
LOWERING PRICES ON THERE BECAUSE TO GET INVENTORY -- ON
THEIR CARS, TO GET PEOPLE ON
ALIX: Stellantis 和 Ford 一直在降價，因為為了去庫存——針對他們的汽車，為了讓...
17:00
THE LEFT.
左邊的人（消費者）買單。
17:07
DIANE:
WELL, THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS ALREADY COMING DOWN, LIKE
COMMODITY PRICES AND THE PRICE OF GAS.
DIANE:
17:12
THOSE CLEARLY HELPED HER BLOOD TO THIS.
這些顯然有助於緩解通膨壓力。
17:16
WHEN YOU SEE PEOPLE TRYING TO GET RID OF INVENTORY, THAT WILL HELP TO BLUNT THE INITIAL
EFFECTS OF INFLATION.
當你看到人們試圖清理庫存時，這將有助於減輕通膨的初步影響。
17:27
WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE
KIND OF STAGFLATION LIKE WE SAW IN THE 1970'S.
我們談的不是像 1970 年代那樣的停滯性通膨。
17:30
WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS WORRIED ABOUT IS NOT JUST THAT
INITIAL BUMP THAT WE GET ONCE THE FULL EFFECTS OF THE TARIFFS
KICK IN.
聯準會擔心的不只是關稅全面生效後我們會遇到的初步衝擊。
17:38
THEY ARE WORDED BY THE SECONDARY EFFECTS AND THE
RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF THAT GOING FORWARD.
他們更擔心的是隨之而來的次級效應和殘留效應。
17:43
THAT IS WHY THEY DON'T WANT TO CUT TOO SOON.
這就是為什麼他們不想太早降息。
17:46
BECAUSE IF THERE IS A SECONDARY INDIRECT EFFECT THAT LINGERS,
THEY WANT TO BE ABLE TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY GET THAT OUT OF
THE ECONOMY AND THE ECONOMY IS
因為如果存在持續的次級間接效應，他們希望能確保將其從經濟中消除，並且經濟正在...
17:58
IN A POSITION WHERE IT COULD
MOVE FORWARD WITHOUT INFLATION IN 2026.
處於一個在2026年能夠在沒有通貨膨脹的情況下前進的位置。
18:03
ROMAINE:
SO AS WE START TO ACTUALLY SEE THE MATERIAL IMPACTS AND MAYBE
THE BLUNTING EFFECTS, IF THEY ARE INDEED COMING SOON, I AM
CURIOUS AS TO WHETHER YOU THINK
THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WILL BE
SORT OF UNIVERSAL, MEANING THE TYPE OF PAIN WE WILL SEE YOU
THERE REBOUND WE WILL SEE WILL BE ACROSS THE BOARD OR SOCKET
WILL BE A BIT MORE DISJOINTED
經濟狀況將是普遍的，意思是我們將看到的痛苦類型以及我們將看到的反彈將是全面性的，還是會有點脫節？
18:28
-- OR, WILL IT BE A BIT MORE
DISJOINTED?
——或者，它會變得更加脫節？
18:33
DIANE: INEQUALITY IS VERY FIRST AND
FOREMOST.
DIANE：不平等是首要問題。
18:39
NOT ONLY TARIFFS, BUT THE MASSIVE SALES TAX WHICH IS
A REGRESSIVE TAX HITTING LOW AND MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY HARD.
不僅是關稅，還有龐大的銷售稅——這是一種累退稅，對中低收入家庭造成不成比例的嚴重打擊。
18:47
IT ALSO HITS SMALLER AND
MIDSIZE BUSINESSES HARDER BECAUSE THEY HAVE LESS OF A
MARGIN TO ABSORB THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS AND LESS WIGGLE ROOM TO
PASS IT ON TO CONSUMERS, SO
ROMAINE:
ALWAYS APPRECIATE IT, DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT
KPMG, AS WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY
AND, SOME OF THE MORE
有趣的故事之際。
19:50
INTERESTING STORIES ON THE DAY.
有趣的故事之際。
19:52
A WILD RIDE FOR RETAILERS.
零售商經歷了瘋狂的波動。
19:55
WITH THEIR SHARES GOING UP,
DOWN, THEN UP AGAIN AS PEOPLE TRY TO ASSESS HOW LONG THE
TARIFFS WILL LAST.
隨著人們試圖評估關稅將持續多久，他們的股價先是上漲，然後下跌，接著又再次上漲。
20:01
WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS IN OUR
TOP CALLS SEGMENT, COMING UP HERE ON THE "THE CLOSE."
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
我們將在即將播出的「The Close」節目中的「Top Calls」環節更仔細地審視這一點。
20:19
ROMAINE:
WITH THE MARKET IN TURMOIL ONCE AGAIN, LET'S GET A VIEW FROM
THE SOUTH SIDE WITH THE TOP CALLS.
ROMAINE：市場再次陷入動盪，讓我們透過「Top Calls」從南側（市場觀點）來看看。
20:24
NORDSTROM.
NORDSTROM。
20:28
CITI DOWNGRADING THE RETAILER,
FLAGGING CONCERNS ABOUT A DEAL BY ITS FOUNDING FAMILY AND A
MEXICAN RETAILER.
花旗下調該零售商評級，
20:34
THE ANALYST SEE LIMITED UPSIDE
FOR THE STOCK IF THE DEAL ACTUALLY
CLOSES, BUT A STEEP UPSIDE IF IT PREVAILS.
分析師認為若交易完成，
20:42
SHARES DOWN ABOUT 2%.
股價下跌約2%。
20:46
NEXT IS THE STOCK, A DOWNGRADE
TO NEUTRAL.
接著是這檔股票，評級下調至中立。
20:48
THE ANALYST CITING CONCERN
ABOUT THE EMPLOYMENT RECRUITING PLATFORM'S INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE AT A TIME WHEN ECONOMIC GROWTH MIGHT BE
SLOWING.
分析師指出對該招聘平台國際曝險的擔憂，
20:57
ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT AI DRIVEN
JOB REPLACEMENT HE SAID NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO MOVE TO THE
SIDELINE.
同樣擔憂AI驅動的職位替代效應，
21:05
SHARES DOWN 6.5%.
股價下跌6.5%。
21:06
FINALLY,
WAYFAIR, JCDECAUX ANALYST CUTTING IT TO NEUTRAL.
最後是Wayfair，
21:11
SAYING THAT WHILE IT IS WELL POSITIONED, TARIFFS CREATE RISK
FOR REVENUES IN THE SHORT TERM.
表示儘管公司定位良好，
21:18
SHARES BUCKING THE TREND
THOUGH, 5%.
不過股價逆勢上漲5%。
21:22
THE ANALYST BEHIND THAT LAST
CALL JOINS US.
最後一則評級的分析師加入我們。
21:26
HE IS DIRECTOR OF EQUITY
RESEARCH OVER AT CITI.
他是花旗股票研究部門主管。
21:31
HE SAW THE NUMBERS, REALLY A
TESTAMENT OF HOW VOLATILE IT'S BEEN.
他看到了數據，這確實證明了市場波動性之大。
21:33
WE HIT DEPTHS YESTERDAY THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEN IN SOME TIME.
昨天我們觸及了近期未見的低點。
21:40
THEN I HAD LEARNED TODAY THAT MAYBE THERE IS A REPRIEVE FOR
VIETNAM WHERE A LOT OF THESE COMPANIES SOURCE THEIR MATERIAL?
然後我今天聽說越南可能獲得緩徵，
21:48
CAN WE COUNT ON THAT?
我們能指望這點嗎？
21:49
>> ON THE REPRIEVE?
>> 關於緩徵？
21:51
NOT SURE WHAT WE CAN COUNT ON THESE DAYS IN TERMS OF WHAT
TARIFFS ARE GOING TO HOLD AND WHAT ARE GOOD THE WAY THINGS
ARE SET UP RIGHT NOW BASED ON
在關稅政策可能如何演變方面，
22:01
WHAT WAS PUT INTO PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, IT CREATES A LOT OF CHALLENGES FOR WAYFAIR.
依據周三實施的政策，
22:07
BUT WAYFAIR DOES HAVE THIS PRIMITIVE ADVANTAGE BECAUSE
IT'S A MARKETPLACE.
但Wayfair確實具備原始優勢，
22:13
IT DOESN'T CREATE ITS OWN
FURNITURE.
它不生產自己的家具。
22:17
IT HAS THE ABILITY TO FIND
PRODUCTS THAT MIGHT BE COMING FROM COUNTRIES THAT ARE
TARIFFED.
它有能力尋找可能來自被課徵關稅國家的產品。
22:24
BUT IF WE ARE GETTING TARIFFS
FOR EVERY COUNTRY, THAT ADAGE GOES AWAY A LITTLE BIT.
但如果我們每個國家都要付關稅，這個優勢就會稍微消失。
22:28
AND THERE IS A LOT OF PRESSURE ON THE CONSUMER AND IN THE
CATEGORY ALREADY.
而且消費者和該類別已經承受很大的壓力。
22:33
IF WE ARE GOING TO ANOTHER
LAYER HERE, THAT CREATES A REALLY LARGE CHALLENGE.
如果我們再增加另一層負擔，這將帶來巨大的挑戰。
22:39
ROMAINE:
IS, THERE ANY POTENTIAL ADVANTAGE FOR THEM GIVEN THAT THEY WOULD TO BE VIEWED AS A
LOWER-PRICED RETAILER?
ROMAINE：考慮到他們會被視為價格較低的零售商，這對他們有潛在的優勢嗎？
22:47
WOULD CUSTOMERS LOOK FOR THOSE
WHO CAN OFFER BETTER PRICES?
消費者會尋找那些能提供更好價格的商家嗎？
22:51
YGAL: THAT IS CERTAINLY TRUE.
YGAL：這確實是對的。
22:53
IN GENERAL, WELFARE HAS BEEN WELL-POSITIONED IT HAS PLENTY
OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES.
總體而言，Wayfair 的定位很好，它有許多競爭優勢。
22:57
GOING BACK TO THE MARKETPLACE, THE AMOUNT OF SKUS AND VENDORS
THEY HAVE FROM DIFFERENT REGIONS WITH WHAT YOU HAVE SEEN
THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS IS
回到市場，他們擁有來自不同地區的大量 SKU 和供應商，根據過去幾年的情況來看，
23:09
PEOPLE HAVE GONE TO WAYFAIR AS
A PLACE WHERE YOU CAN GET RELATIVE BETTER OPTIONS IN
TERMS OF PRICING.
人們已經將 Wayfair 視為一個可以在定價上獲得相對更好選擇的地方。
23:17
AND BETTER DEALS.
以及更好的交易。
23:19
WAYFAIR HAS DONE A REALLY GOOD JOB OF OUTGROWING THE CATEGORY
IN THE LAST FEW YEARS AND HAVE TAKEN SHARE.
Wayfair 在過去幾年做得非常好，增長速度超越了同類別，並搶佔了市佔率。
23:26
THAT COULD CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO PLAY A FACTOR IF SHOPPERS
CONTINUE TO BE PRICE-CONSCIOUS, BUT, IN OUR VIEW, THE NEAR TERM
HEADWINDS FROM ANOTHER LAYER OF
如果購物者繼續對價格敏感，這當然會繼續發揮作用，但在我們看來，近期來自另一層
23:37
PRICING INCREASES IN THE SPACE
OUTWEIGH ANY OF THOSE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES.
定價上漲的逆風，超過了任何這些競爭優勢。
23:43
THAT CREATES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW.
這在當下造成了太多的不確定性。
23:46
ALIX:
HOW DOES WAYFAIR HANDLE INVENTORY?
ALIX：Wayfair 如何管理庫存？
23:47
IF THERE ARE OVER-INVENTORIED,
THEY WILL HAVE TO DISCARD TO GET IT TO GO.
如果庫存過多，他們將不得不打折拋售以清空庫存。
23:55
WHERE DO THEY SIT RIGHT NOW?
目前它們的狀況如何？
23:57
YGAL:
THE ADVANTAGE FOR WAYFAIR IS THAT ITS VENDORS ARE THE ONES
REALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRICING AND MANAGING INVENTORY.
YGAL：Wayfair 的優勢在於，其供應商才是真正負責定價和管理庫存的人。
24:05
WAYFAIR HAS PLENTY OF LOGISTICAL CAPABILITIES, IT
HELPS VENDORS MANAGE THAT, BUT IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT TO
MARGINS AND THE BOTTOM LINE,
WAYFAIR 擁有強大的物流能力，它協助供應商進行管理，但在利潤和淨利的影響方面，
24:15
WAYFAIR DOESN'T HAVE THE SAME TYPE OF EXPOSURE THERE THAT
MOST RETAILERS DO.
WAYFAIR 並不像大多數零售商那樣面臨相同的風險。
24:24
THEY HELP VENDORS.
他們協助供應商。
24:25
THEIR GOAL IS TO GET VENDORS THE BEST AMOUNT OF SALES AND BE
POSITIONED TO HAVE -- TO HAVE THEIR INVENTORY POSITION IN THE
BEST WAY TO OPTIMIZE THAT.
他們的目標是為供應商帶來最佳的銷售額，並以最佳方式配置庫存位置來優化銷售。
24:34
BUT THEY DON'T HAVE THE SAME
EXPOSURE THERE.
但他們在這方面沒有相同的風險。
24:39
TO US THAT IS A BENEFIT.
對我們來說，這是一項優勢。
24:41
SO IT COMES DOWN TO THE TOP LINE AND POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL
AMOUNT OF LOWER SALES AND HOW THAT TRICKLES DOWN.
所以這歸結到營收，以及可能意味著銷售額大幅下降，及其連鎖反應。
24:52
ALIX: THANKS A LOT, YGAL AROUNIAN,
DIRECTOR OF EQUITY RESEARCH AT CITI.
ALIX: 非常感謝，花旗集團（CITI）股票研究主管 YGAL AROUNIAN。
24:58
COMING UP, INVESTORS CONTINUE TO PILE INTO TREASURIES.
接下來，投資者持續湧入美國公債市場。
25:01
WE WILL DISCUSS MORE WITH A PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT DOUBLINE,
BILL CAMPBELL.
我們將與 DoubleLine 的基金經理 BILL CAMPBELL 進一步討論。
25:09
THIS IS "THE CLOSE"
ON BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社的「收盤（THE CLOSE）」。
25:17
>> WILL GO FROM FREE-TRADE AND
WORLD TRADE AND GLOBALIZATION, TO THE SYSTEM WHICH IMPLIES
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ON
>> 將從自由貿易、世界貿易和全球化，轉向意味著對各個方向貿易施加重大限制的體系。
25:29
TRADE IN EVERY DIRECTION.
這對美國來說，是走向孤立的一步。
25:31
AND A STEP TOWARDS ISOLATION FOR THE UNITED STATES.
ROMAINE: 傳奇投資人 HOWARD MARKS 稍早在彭博電視上發言。
25:39
ROMAINE: LEGENDARY INVESTOR HOWARD MARKS
SPEAKING EARLIER HERE ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION.
在這一天，我們得以一窺市場對此新關稅制度的看法，更重要的是，對潛在新經濟制度的看法。
25:43
ON A DAY WHERE WE ARE GETTING A TASTE OF WHAT THE MARKET THINKS
OF THIS NEW TARIFF REGIME AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, A POTENTIAL
NEW ECONOMIC REGIME.
ALIX 昨天大跌 5%，現在又跌了 5%。
25:53
DOWN 5% YESTERDAY AT ALIX, 5%
RIGHT NOW.
ALIX: 真的很慘。
25:57
ALIX: REALLY BRUTAL.
NASDAQ 只跌了 4.7%。
25:59
NASDAQ IS DOWN JUST 4.7%.
ROMAINE: 只有 4.7% 嗎？
26:02
ROMAINE: DID IT JUST UP TO 4.7%?
羅曼：它剛剛上漲到 4.7% 嗎？
26:05
ALIX: IT DID.
艾莉克斯：確實如此。
26:07
HOWARD MARKS TALK MORE ABOUT THE DOLLAR.
霍華德·馬克斯談論更多關於美元的事。
26:10
HE SAID IF PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO INVEST IN THE U.S., IF WE MAKE
PEOPLE MAD, THE FISCAL SITUATION IS COMPLICATED.
他說如果人們不想投資美國，如果我們惹惱了人們，財政狀況就會變得複雜。
26:24
KIND OF WARNING THAT OUT THERE.
這是一種警告。
26:25
ROMAINE: FIRST EVERYONE WAS SELLING THE
DOLLAR.
羅曼：起初大家都在拋售美元。
26:27
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW PEOPLE
ARE POSITION OF ROBERT TRUMP.
有趣的是看到人們如何看待羅伯特·川普的立場。
26:31
TODAY WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF
DOLLAR STRENGTH YESTERDAY'S.
今天我們看到美元相對於昨天稍微走強。
26:35
ALIX:
ACTION WAS VERY CONFUSING.
艾莉克斯：昨天的走勢非常令人困惑。
26:37
OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS THE RISK OF
TARIFFS CONTINUES TO CLOUD THE OUTLOOK.
我們的下一位嘉賓表示，關稅風險持續籠罩著前景。
26:41
JOINING US IS BILL CAMPBELL, HE DOES MACRO BILLS.
加入我們的是比爾·坎貝爾，他研究宏觀趨勢。
26:45
HOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE DOLLAR BOGI PRICE PRESSURE.
您如何看待美元的避險價格壓力？
26:48
THERE BE A SHIFT IN HOW OVERSEAS INVESTORS LOOK AT THAT
ASSET?
海外投資者對該資產的看法會發生轉變嗎？
26:51
BILL: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
比爾：謝謝邀請我。
26:54
YESTERDAY'S PRICE ACTION IS SOMETHING THAT REALLY ALL
INVESTORS SHOULD TAKE NOTE OF.
昨天的價格走勢是所有投資者都應該注意的事情。
27:04
OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES WITH
LOW AND NEGATIVE INTEREST-RATE POLICY ACROSS THE ROOM, WITH SO
IT OF DOLLARS OF HER INVESTMENT COMING TO THE UNITED STATES.
在過去二十年裡，隨著全球各地實施低利率和負利率政策，有大量美元投資湧入美國。
27:15
WITH U.S. EQUITY RETURNS FROM A PRIVATE
EQUITY RETURNS IN THE UNITED STATES, YOU JUST HAD NO OTHER
PLACE FOR GLOBAL INVESTMENT TO
加上美國股市和私募股權在美國的回報，全球投資根本沒有其他地方可去。
27:28
FIND AN AREA WHERE THEY COULD
HAVE CAPITAL GROWTH OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES.
尋找一個能在美國以外實現資本增長的領域。
27:31
UNFORTUNATELY WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW IS THE CHANGE IN TRADE AND
TARIFF POLICY AS WELL AS A CHANGE IN GEOPOLITICAL POLICY
FROM THE UNITED STATES AROUND
不幸的是，我們現在看到的是貿易和關稅政策的改變，以及美國地緣政治政策的轉變。
27:42
THE SECURITY GUARANTEES, IS MAY
BE A RETHINK OF, DOES THAT CAPITAL REALLY NEED TO SIT IN
THE UNITED STATES?
關於安全保證，這可能讓人重新思考，這些資本真的需要留在美國嗎？
27:49
WHAT I THINK WE SAW YESTERDAY
AND POTENTIALLY WHAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE OVER THE
MEDIUM-TERM, IS EITHER A REPATRIATION OF THAT CAPITAL,
OUR FOREIGN INVESTMENT FLOWING
我認為我們昨天看到的，以及未來中期可能看到的，是這些資本的回流，或是外國投資的流出。
28:01
BACK OUT OF THE UNITED STATES
, OR AT LEAST MORE DOLLAR HEDGING.
從美國撤資，或至少增加更多美元避險。
28:04
NEW CAPITAL MAY BE NOT FLOWING IN.
新資本可能不再流入。
28:06
I THINK TODAY'S MOVE IS MUCH
MORE IN LINE WITH TRADITIONAL DOLLAR STANDARD THAT WE WOULD
HAVE EXPECTED WITH A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHOCK.
我認為今天的走勢更符合我們對全球經濟衝擊下傳統美元標準的預期。
28:15
KAILEY, EMERGING MARKETS HIT THE HARDEST, CHINA RESPONDING
WITH RETALIATORY TARIFFS OF THEIR.
凱莉，新興市場受創最深，中國正以報復性關稅回應。
28:26
THAT OBVIOUSLY HITS THE GLOBAL
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
這顯然打擊了全球經濟前景。
28:32
AND CAPITAL IS GROWING -- FLEW
INTO THE SAFE HAVEN ASSET OF U.S.
資本正湧入——流入美國的避險資產。
28:34
TREASURIES.
美國公債。
28:35
THAT IS NEAR TERM.
這是短期情況。
28:38
LONGER TERM, I AM AFRAID THAT
THE LONGER THESE POLICIES REMAIN IN PLACE THAT ARE
AGGRESSIVE, ISOLATIONIST, THE MORE THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE
FOREIGN CAPITAL FIND OTHER
長期來看，我擔心這些強硬、孤立主義的政策持續越久，我們就越會看到外資尋找其他去處。
28:49
HOMES, THE MORE THAT WE ARE
GOING TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RETURNS IN INTERNATIONAL
MARKETS GO UP.
我們就越會看到國際市場的潛在報酬率上升。
28:57
AND IT PUTS THE DOLLAR AT
MEDIUM-TERM RISK.
這讓美元面臨中期風險。
29:00
AND WITH THIS -- ONE OF THE
THINGS THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO DO IS CHOOSE GROWTH
BY BRINGING DOWN THE OVERALL COST OF CAPITAL IN THE UNITED
STATES.
而這——政府正試圖做的一件事，就是透過降低美國整體資本成本來選擇增長。
29:08
YOU'VE HEARD SCOTT BESSENT TALK
ABOUT THAT.
你聽過史考特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）談過這點。
29:12
IF WE DON'T HAVE FOREIGN
SAVINGS FLOWING INTO THE U.S., THAT IS GOING TO MAKE THAT GOAL
VERY DIFFICULT.
如果我們沒有外國儲蓄流入美國，這將讓該目標變得非常難以實現。
29:21
ROMAINE: I UNDERSTAND THAT A LOT OF
THESE SHORT-TERM MOVES, WE CAN'T READ TOO MUCH INTO HOW IT
PLEASE OUT LONG-TERM.
羅曼：我理解這些短期走勢，我們不能過度解讀它如何演變成長期趨勢。
29:30
BUT YOU PUT THESE DAY MOVES
TOGETHER, YOU GET A BETTER SENSE OF THE TREND.
但把這些天的走勢拼湊起來，能讓我們更掌握趨勢。
29:32
I'M NOT SURE WHAT THE TREND IS WITH THE DOLLAR RIGHT NOW,
PEOPLE ARE BIDDING ON WEAKNESS, OTHERS BETTING ON FURTHER
STRENGTH.
我不確定美元目前的趨勢為何，有人押注走弱，也有人押注續強。
29:42
WHERE DOES IT GO?
它會去向何方？
29:44
BILL: YOU NEED TO LOOK AT
DIFFERENTIATION.
比爾：你需要觀察分化。
29:45
LET'S FIRST BREAK OUT THE
BUCKET THAT IS WORKING AS EXPECTED, THE CURRENCIES THAT
ARE HANGING IN WITH STRENGTH THAT WE WOULD EXPECT IN A
PERIOD OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
我們先來看看表現如預期的板塊，也就是那些在經濟不確定時期展現出我們預期強度的貨幣。
29:56
ARE THE YEN AND SWISS FRANC,
THOSE ARE FLIGHT TO SAFETY CURRENCIES.
日圓和瑞士法郎，這些都是避險貨幣。
30:01
THAT MAKES SENSE TO ME.
這我懂。
30:05
THE ONE THAT IS A LITTLE BIT --
THAT MAY BE BUCKING THE TREND THIS TIME AROUND IS THE EURO,
AGAIN, IT HAS HAD A DECADENT AND A HALF OF NEGATIVE INTEREST
RATE AND LOW INTEREST RATE
這一次稍微有點——可能逆勢而行的是歐元，
30:15
POLICIES THAT HAS LED TO
EUROPEAN CAPITAL FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES.
這些政策導致
30:19
AND IN A TIME OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT CAPITAL TO BE BROUGHT BACK HOME.
在全球經濟不確定的時期，
30:28
IN EMERGING MARKETS, I THINK THERE IS STILL A TIE TO CHINA
GROWTH.
在新興市場，我認為仍與中國的
30:33
AND THE ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
AND VOLATILITY, I WOULD EXPECT TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN WEAKER
CURRENCIES MORE LIKE WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY.
而經濟的不確定性
30:42
ANOTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND, IF THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH U.S.
另一件要記住的事是，如果美元隨著美國的
30:51
TARIFFS GOING HIGHER, THAT ACTUALLY INCREASES THEIR IMPACT
-- THEIR ECONOMIC IMPACT GLOBALLY.
關稅調升而持續走弱，這實際上會增加它們的影響——
30:58
THE IDEA WITH A STRONG DOLLAR AND WEAKENING CURRENCIES IS
THAT THE CURRENCY WEAKNESS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE,
WOULD OFFSET SOME OF THE IMPACT
強勢美元和疲軟貨幣的概念是，
31:10
OF THAT TARIFF.
關稅的影響。
31:10
. AND IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN, THE FEEDTHROUGH FOR GROWTH
ECONOMICALLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WORSE.
如果這沒有發生，對經濟成長的傳導
31:18
AND THE FEEDTHROUGH TO INFLATION DOMESTICALLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND LONGER LASTING.
而對國內通膨的傳導
31:26
ROMAINE:
THIS IS ALWAYS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND FOLKS, TOO, WE ARE STILL
AT THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS.
羅曼：
31:33
OBVIOUSLY WE HAVE GOTTEN THE U.S.
很明顯地，我們已經掌握了
31:34
SIDE OF THE EQUATION, BUT AS YOU SAW THIS MORNING WITH THE
ANNOUNCEMENT BY CHINA, THE MARKET IS STILL ON EDGE FOR
WHAT RETALIATION WOULD BE FROM
337.
31:43
OTHER COUNTRIES.
它們在全球的經濟影響。
31:43
WE HAVEN'T HEARD FROM EUROPE YET, THAT COULD BE A BIG ONE.
我們還沒聽到歐洲的消息，那可能會是個大動作。
31:47
I ASSUME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE WILL.
我預計在接下來的幾天內，我們會聽到。
31:49
HOW WILL THE MARKET TAKE THAT IF THEY RETALIATE IN A SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE THAT WE SAW FROM CHINA?
如果他們以我們看到中國那樣的規模進行報復，
31:51
BILL:
OH, I'M EXTREMELY WORRIED.
BILL:
31:57
THE REACTION WOULD BE NEGATIVE
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE PRICE ACTION WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE REACTION WOULD BE NEGATIVE
32:02
IF WE GET SIMILAR RESPONSES FROM EUROPE THAT WE GOT OUT OF
CHINA, BASICALLY MATCHING THE U.S.
IF WE GET SIMILAR RESPONSES FROM EUROPE THAT WE GOT OUT OF
32:13
POLICY, THAT WOULD BE CLEARLY
GROWTH-NEGATIVE GOING FORWARD.
POLICY, THAT WOULD BE CLEARLY
32:16
NOW, ON THE OTHER HAND, WE ALSO
NEED TO CONSIDER WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE NEWS AROUND
VIETNAM.
NOW, ON THE OTHER HAND, WE ALSO
32:24
IF WE CAN GET QUICK AGREEMENTS
ON A BILATERAL BASIS, OR MAY BE ON A MULTILATERAL BASIS WHERE
WE HAVE TRADE BARRIERS GLOBALLY BROUGHT LOWER THAN IN CHANGES
THE ECONOMIC PICTURE MATERIALLY.
IF WE CAN GET QUICK AGREEMENTS
32:36
BUT UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE KIND
OF PLAYING AGAINST THE CLOCK ON THIS ONE.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE KIND
32:40
SO I WOULD ENCOURAGE THE ADMINISTRATION AND ALL GLOBAL LEADERS TO TRY TO REACH A NEW
EQUILIBRIUM AND HOPEFULLY REACH
SO I WOULD ENCOURAGE THE ADMINISTRATION AND ALL GLOBAL LEADERS TO TRY TO REACH A NEW
32:54
A PLACE WHERE WE CAN PULL BACK
ALL GLOBAL TRADE BARRIERS, ALL TARIFFS IN THE SHORT RUN.
A PLACE WHERE WE CAN PULL BACK
32:58
BECAUSE THE LONGER THIS LASTS, THE MORE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT
WILL BE ON GROWTH, THE MORE RISK TO THE LABOR MARKET THE
SKYY MOORE WE HAVE RISKED OUR
BECAUSE THE LONGER THIS LASTS, THE MORE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT
33:08
PRICES. ALIX:
YES FOR THAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT HAPPEN,
BILL, FROM WHAT WE HAVE HEARD FROM THE ADMINISTRATION.
PRICES. ALIX:
33:17
DOES THIS MOVE THE DOLLAR OUT OF THE GLOBAL PAYMENTS SYSTEM
IN A MEANINGFUL WAY?
DOES THIS MOVE THE DOLLAR OUT OF THE GLOBAL PAYMENTS SYSTEM
33:25
BILL: SO, WE HAVE BEEN READING ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE YEARS NOW, EVER SINCE WE TOOK
RUSSIA OUT OF THE GLOBAL
BILL: SO, WE HAVE BEEN READING ABOUT
33:33
PAYMENTS SYSTEM.
PAYMENTS SYSTEM.
33:34
I THINK WE STARTED TO SEE SMALL MOVEMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
I THINK WE STARTED TO SEE SMALL MOVEMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
33:39
BUT WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A LOT OF MOVEMENT TOWARDS REGIONAL TRADE
AGREEMENTS.
BUT WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A LOT OF MOVEMENT TOWARDS REGIONAL TRADE
33:47
YOU ARE SEEING ASIA IS REALLY
LEADING THE WAY IN DEVELOPING STRONG NETWORKS OF REGIONAL
TRADE AND BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS.
YOU ARE SEEING ASIA IS REALLY
33:53
MEMORANDUMS OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN THEIR CENTRAL BANKS TO
SETTLE TRADE IN THEIR LOCAL CURRENCIES, BASICALLY REMOVING
THE DOLLAR FROM THE SETTLEMENTS.
MEMORANDUMS OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN THEIR CENTRAL BANKS TO
34:07
THE ACTIONS THAT WE ARE SEEING
TODAY ARE ONLY GOING TO INCREASE THAT GOING FORWARD.
THE ACTIONS THAT WE ARE SEEING
34:12
I DO THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO PLAY OUT, THAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A MULTIYEAR PROCESS.
I DO THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO PLAY OUT, THAT WE ARE
34:17
BUT THE LONGER THAT POLICY REMAINS IN PLACE, THE MORE AT
RISK THE DOLLAR IS OF MAYBE NOT BEING REPLACED BY A NEW SINGLE
CURRENCY THAT WILL BE THE
但這項政策持續的時間越長，美元的風險就越大，可能不會被一個新的單一貨幣取代，
34:30
RESERVE CURRENCY AND THE
STANDARD FOR GLOBAL TRADE AND SETTLEMENT, BUT A MULTIPOLAR
WORLD, WHERE COUNTRIES LOOK AT WHAT IS THEIR
BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISIS WHO
這個單一貨幣將成為儲備貨幣以及全球貿易與結算的標準，而是走向一個多極化的世界，
34:40
DO THEY TRADE WITH AND INVEST WITH DEBBIE THEN
THEIR -- WITH, THEN THE CAPITAL OF THEIR INVESTORS HOLD
WERE MUCH MORE CLOSELY REFLECT
他們與誰貿易、與誰投資，然後投資者的資本持有將會
34:52
THAT, RATHER THAN JUST A DOLLAR
BASED INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO.
更緊密地反映這一點，而不僅僅是基於美元的投資組合。
34:56
ROMAINE:
HOW DOES THIS MARKET RESET?
羅曼：
34:59
IT IS A LIST OF GOING TO TAKE
SOME TIME, IF THERE IS A DEAL FOR OBVIOUSLY THESE INDIVIDUAL
NATIONS OR SOMETHING MORE
這需要一些時間，如果這些個別國家之間達成協議，或者出現更
35:09
WHOLESALE.
大規模的整合。
35:10
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT GAP PROBABLY BEFORE WE GET THERE.
在我們抵達那個階段之前，可能會出現顯著的落差。
35:14
WHAT DOES REPOSITIONING LOOK LIKE FOR FOLKS SITTING ON THE
SIDELINES WERE POTENTIALLY SITTING ON BIG LOSSES RIGHT NOW?
對於那些目前置身事外、或者可能正承受重大虧損的人來說，重新配置資產意味著什麼？
35:20
BILL: I THINK ULTIMATELY, WE ARE GOING TO SEE INVESTORS GLOBALLY
WILL HOLD A MUCH LARGER PIECE OF THE INTERNATIONAL FIXED
INCOME AND INTERNATIONAL
比爾：我認為最終，我們將看到全球投資者
35:31
EQUITIES IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS.
股票。
35:33
I THINK THE REWIRING OF GLOBAL TRADE THAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT
NOW IS ONLY GOING TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE.
我認為目前正在發生的全球貿易重組只會持續並加速。
35:39
WE ARE GOING TO SEE MANY COUNTRIES USING THEIR FISCAL
SPACE THAT THEY HAVE AVAILABLE TO THEM, TO TRY TO BUILD OUT
THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY AND
我們將看到許多國家利用他們現有的財政空間，
35:51
DEFENSE EFFORTS, WHICH IS KIND
OF WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN EUROPE RIGHT NOW.
國防力量，這有點像我們現在在歐洲看到的情況。
35:53
THAT IS GOING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR EARNINGS GROWTH
AND MULTIPLES GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKETS.
這將增加國際股市盈餘增長和估值倍數增長的潛力。
36:05
SO I THINK ULTIMATELY, THIS
LEADS TO A PLACE WHERE INTERNATIONAL AND U.S.
所以我認為最終，這將導致一個局面，即國際和美國
36:11
INVESTORS, ARE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT A MUCH BROADER
COMPOSITION OF MARKETS AND CURRENCIES IN THEIR PORTFOLIO,
AS COMPARED TO TODAY WHERE THE
投資者，將會在他們的投資組合中看到比現在更廣泛的市場和貨幣組合，
36:23
DOLLAR AND U.S.
相較於現在美元和美國
36:24
EQUITIES AND U.S.
股票以及美國
36:27
INVESTMENT HAS HELD A MAJOR
SPOT IN INVESTORS' PORTFOLIOS.
投資在投資者組合中佔據主要地位的情況。
36:32
ROMAINE:
BILL CAMPBELL FROM A GLOBAL BOND PORTFOLIO MANAGER OVER AT
DOUBLINE, A FOCUS ON THE PROCESS OF MARKETS.
ROMAINE:
36:38
HE DOESN'T ACTUALLY COVER THE CORPORATE SPACE,, BUT IT IS
INTERESTING TO SEE.
他其實並不負責企業領域，但還是值得一看。
36:43
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE YIELDS
THERE START TO SPREAD OUT AND THAT INCLUDES HIGH-YIELD DEBT.
我們開始看到那裡的收益率開始擴散，這包括高收益債券。
36:49
THE SPREAD OF AN JUNK-BONDS WEDDING TO A 60 MONTH-HIGH,
ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG DATA.
根據彭博數據，垃圾債券的利差正逼近 60 個月高點。
36:55
THERE HAS BEEN TALK THAT WE
HADN'T SEEN THAT BLOW OUT YIELDS.
一直有傳言說我們還沒見過收益率如此暴漲。
37:01
ALIX:
IN THIS CHART SHOWS THE GLOBAL JUNK BOND SPREADS SPIKING UNDER
TARIFFS SHOCK, THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
SINCE 2020.
ALIX:
37:08
I WANT TO SEE IF THERE IS A WAY
TO FILTER OUT 2020 BECAUSE THAT WAS SO SPECIFIC, TO THE LOOK AT
OTHER ECONOMIC CRISIS AND WHAT THE ACTUAL REACTION WAS.
WE ARE SEEING THAT
EXTREMENESS AND EQUITY SPACE, FIXED INCOME SPACE, AND ALSO IN
COMMODITIES.
我們在股市、固定收益市場，甚至商品市場都看到了這種極端情況。
37:39
THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX
THAT TRACKS ALL MAJOR COMMODITIES, NOW HEADED FOR ITS
WORST WEEK SINCE 2022, BEING DRAGGED DOWN BY WHAT YOU SEE ON
YOUR SCREEN, CRUDE OIL.
WTI CRUDE AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR
SCREEN, BRENT CRUDE IN LONDON, BOTH DONE ON THE DAY AND ON A
WEEKLY BASIS, DOWN 9% TO 10%.
螢幕底部的 WTI 原油，以及倫敦的布蘭特原油，當日和本週均下跌，跌幅在 9% 到 10% 之間。
38:01
SOME OF THE MOVE WAS NOT JUST
ABOUT TARIFFS, IT WAS ALSO ABOUT THE SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT
BY OPEC.
部分走勢不僅與關稅有關，也與 OPEC 的意外宣布有關。
38:08
REBECCA BABIN JOINS US NOW,
SENIOR ENERGY TRADER AT CIBC, TO TALK ABOUT THAT.
現在 REBECCA BABIN 加入我們，她是 CIBC 的高級能源交易員，來談談這件事。
38:13
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE ONE-TWO PUNCH.
來談談這波連環打擊。
38:15
FIRST HE HAD A GUESS OF THE STOCK OF TARIFFS, THEN YOU HAD
THE MORE REASONABLE SHOCK WITH OPEC COMING DOWN AND SEEING THE
WILL BOOST OUTPUT BY WHAT WAS
首先是關稅的猜測衝擊，然後是更實質的衝擊，OPEC 決定增產，增幅是
38:26
IT THAT TWO THIRDS MORE THAN
WHAT THE MARKET EXPECTED?
比市場預期高出多少？三分之二嗎？
38:30
REBECCA:
YES, IT WAS REALLY THAT MIKE TYSON MOMENT FOR CRUDE OIL THIS
WEEK, WHERE EVERYBODY HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET PUNCHED IN
THE FACE.
REBECCA:
38:40
THAT TURKIYE ANNOUNCEMENT WHICH
I KNOW YOU HAVE HINTED THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED THAT
REALLY WAS IMPRESSED INTO CRUDE, IT THE FIRST KIND OF HIT.
那個土耳其的宣布——我知道你暗示過這應該在預期之內——真的重擊了原油，那是第一波打擊。
38:50
AND THEN THE BIGGER HIT THAT I THINK REALLY HAS SHAKEN MANY
INVESTORS, IS THE DECISION BY OPEC TO NOT ONLY UNWIND THEIR
PRODUCTION CUTS, THEY DECIDED
然後我認為真正動搖許多投資者的重大打擊，是 OPEC 的決定，他們不僅要取消減產，他們還決定
38:59
NOT TO PAUSE IN THE FACE OF
MARKET WEAKNESS, BUT TO ACCELERATE THE UNWINDS.
面對市場疲弱不暫停，反而要加速取消減產。
39:04
REALLY THIS IS A SHIFT IN POLICY.
這真的是政策的轉變。
39:05
OPEC+ HAS BEEN OPERATING UNDER THE GUISE OF, WE PROVIDE MARKET
STABILITY.
OPEC+ 一直以「我們提供市場穩定」的姿態運作。
39:12
WE ARE GOING TO CUT PRODUCTION
WHEN THINGS ARE, BAD WE MAY INCREASE PRODUCTION IF THERE IS
A SPIKE, KIND OF THIS BALANCING MECHANISM IN THE MARKET.
我們將在情況不好時減產，如果價格飆升，我們可能會增產，就像是市場的平衡機制。
39:20
AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING AND WHAT INVESTORS ARE FEARING
IS, THAT IT IS NOT THERE ANYMORE.
而我們現在看到的，以及投資者所擔憂的是，這個機制已不復存在。
39:27
THEY MAY NOT SUPPORT THE MARKET ON A MAJOR PULLBACK LEAD SO
THEY MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE.
價格大幅回檔時，他們可能不會支撐市場，所以他們可能會更積極。
39:35
THOSE FACTORS REALLY KIND OF
SHOOK TRADERS TO THE CORE I THINK OVER THESE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
這些因素在過去幾天真的讓交易員們感到震驚。
39:42
AND WE ARE DOWN IN EXCESS OF
10%.
我們已經下跌超過 10%。
39:42
IT'S REALLY A PLACE WHERE I THINK THE QUESTION EVERYONE IS
ASKING NOW IS, WHAT IS THE CATALYST TO BUY THIS DIP?
這真的是一個大家都在問的時刻：進場承接這波下跌的催化劑是什麼？
39:53
>> RIGHT, IF WE GET INTO THE
HIGH 50'S ON WTI, DO WE SEE PRODUCTION COME OFF?
>> 沒錯，如果 WTI 跌到 50 美元高檔，我們會看到產量減少嗎？
39:59
WHAT IS THE CATALYST?
催化劑是什麼？
40:02
I THINK THAT QUESTION HAS BEEN
ANSWERED.
我認為這個問題已經有答案了。
40:03
THE REASON WHY IT'S HARD FOR
THE MARKET TO FIND THE FOOTING.
這就是為什麼市場難以找到支撐點的原因。
40:08
ALIX:
WHAT'S NOT INTERESTING IS THAT IT IS NOT A DEMAND ISSUE YET.
Alix:
40:12
WE ARE STILL IN BACKWARDATION PRICES, TODAY'S PRICE IS MORE
EXPENSIVE THAN PRICES LATER, BUT THAT WILL OCCUR ITS TRENDING
DOWNWARD.
IF I AM AN OIL TRADER, I AM
LOOKING AT A $62 HANDLE AND I DON'T LIKE IT.
如果我是石油交易員，我看著 62 美元的價位，我會不喜歡。
40:26
WHAT WILL BE THE KNOCK-ON EFFECT?
會有什麼連鎖效應？
40:27
REBECCA:
I THINK THE BREAK EVENTS IN THESE HAVE GOTTEN BETTER.
Rebecca:
40:30
THEY USED TO BE $55.
以前是 55 美元。
40:31
IT IS GRAVITATING A LITTLE
LOWER TO THE 50'S BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN SO EFFICIENT.
因為他們過去效率極高，所以目前正小幅向50美元價位靠攏。
40:34
I ABSOLUTELY THINK THEY ARE CAPITAL-DISCIPLINED AND THEY
WILL SEE THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE HORIZON.
我完全認為他們具備資本紀律，並且將會意識到前景中的不確定性。
40:41
WE ARE COMING INTO EARNINGS SEASON, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PRODUCERS START TO SAY OUR I'M SCALING BACK.
我們即將進入財報季，如果看到生產商開始表示他們正在縮減規模，我不會感到驚訝。
40:51
I AM GOING TO REDUCE PRODUCTION.
我打算降低產量。
40:53
THAT IS SUPPORTIVE TO THE
COMMODITY, BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT IS CONCERNING BECAUSE IT
HITS ON OUR ECONOMY.
這對大宗商品具有支撐作用，但與此同時也令人擔憂，因為這衝擊了我們的經濟。
41:01
I MEAN, WE ARE NOT A PROVEN
IMPORTER, WE ARE A BIGGER EXPORTER THAN WE ARE AND
IMPORTER.
我的意思是，我們並非已確認的進口國，我們是比進口國規模更大的出口國。
41:11
SO, THE COMMENTARY FROM THE
PRODUCERS IN THE COMING QUARTERS WILL BE VERY CAUTIOUS,
RIGHTFULLY SO.
因此，未來幾季生產商的言論將會非常謹慎，這也是理所當然的。
41:17
ALIX: BILL HILL TOLD ME NOBODY WILL
DRILL BELOW $80.
Alix：Bill Hill告訴我，沒人會在低於80美元的情況下繼續鑽探。
41:20
SO THIS HAS TO HURT FROM THAT
PERSPECTIVE.
所以從這個角度來看，這必然會造成傷害。
41:22
COMMODITY PRICES ARE HIGH.
目前商品價格很高。
41:28
WHAT DO YOU THINK
OPEC+'S RESPONSE WILL BE IF WE GO TO THE $50 HANDLE?
如果油價跌到50美元價位，你認為OPEC+會作何反應？
41:33
WILL THEY STAY FIRM ON PUTTING MORE OIL ON THE MARKET?
他們會堅持向市場投放更多石油的立場嗎？
41:36
REBECCA:
I THINK THAT IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK.
Rebecca：我認為這是一個巨大的問號。
41:38
IF YOU HAD ASKED ME A WEEK AGO, I WOULD HAVE SAID THEY WOULD
ABSOLUTELY STOP PRODUCTION AND MAY EVEN CUT FURTHER.
如果你一週前問我，我會說他們絕對會停止生產，甚至可能進一步減產。
41:46
IF WE GET TO THE 50'S, I DON'T THINK THEY, AND START CUTTING
PRODUCTION AGGRESSIVELY AS THEY HAVE DONE IN THE PAST.
如果油價跌到50美元，我不認為他們會像過去那樣積極地開始削減產量。
41:54
THEY MAY
PAUSE THEIR UNWINDS A.K.A.
他們可能會暫停解除減產（Unwinds）的動作，也就是說。
41:58
NOT BRINGING BACK ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTION, BUT I DON'T THINK THEY WILL COME IN AND SAY GUESS
WHAT, WE WILL GIVE YOU THE MARKET LOLLIPOPPED AS THEY HAVE
DONE IN THE PAST, TAKING
THE OTHER THING WE CAN CONSIDER ON THE SUPPLY-SIDE THOUGH, IT'S
SOME OF THE SUPPLY RISK WE WERE TALKING ABOUT LAST WEEK, I
THINK WE COULD SEE SUPPLY FROM
RUSSIA DECLINE IF TALKS BETWEEN
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE DON’'T COME TO FRUITION.
如果俄羅斯和烏克蘭的談判沒有結果，俄羅斯將會衰退。
42:26
TRUMP MAY START TO EXERT SOME OF THE PRESSURE THAT HE HAS
THREATENED.
川普可能會開始施加他曾威脅過的壓力。
42:34
AND AGAIN WITH IRAN AS WELL,
RIGHT, THERE HAS BEEN TALK OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE BUT IT HASN'T
COME TO FRUITION.
同樣地，關於伊朗的部分也是如此，對吧，雖然一直有討論要實施最大壓力，但尚未實現。
42:37
WE COULD SEE SOME OF THOSE
SUPPLY RISKS REEMERGE.
我們可能會看到這些供應風險再次浮現。
42:43
BUT I DON'T THINK IT WILL MAKE
THE MARKET COMFORTABLE UNTIL WE SEE HARD DATA ON HOW DEMAND IS
RESPONDING TO THESE TARIFFS.
但我認為，在看到關於需求如何因應這些關稅的硬數據之前，市場不會感到安心。
42:47
ROMAINE:
I'M CURIOUS, I WENT TO CIRCLE BACK TO THE CONSUMER FOR A
SECOND.
ROMAINE：我很好奇，我想再回到消費者的話題一下。
42:55
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK
ABOUT MAYBE HAVE SOME OF THIS PAIN DOES POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME
BENEFITS, AND THE IDEA THAT IT GASOLINE PRICES FALL, HEATING
AND COOLING PRICES POTENTIALLY
有很多人討論，也許這波痛苦可能帶來一些好處，例如汽油價格下跌，供暖和製冷成本也可能因此下降。
43:08
MAY ALSO FALL AS A RESULT OF
THIS.
雖然我知道這無法完全彌補痛苦，但您預期我們會看到成本下降轉嫁到精煉產品上嗎？
43:11
I KNOW THAT IS NOT A COMPLETE
SALVO FOR THE PAIN, BUT DO YOU ANTICIPATE WE COULD SEE A FIT
THROUGH INTO THE REFINED PRODUCTS?
REBECCA：這點說得很有道理。
43:16
REBECCA: FAIR POINT.
我確實認為我們會看到這類產品成本下降，從而刺激需求。
43:19
I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME OF THAT KIND OF LOWER COST FOR
PRODUCTS TO HELP SPUR DEMAND.
但現實是，原油價格對我們消費量的影響密度（彈性），已經比過去低了很多。
43:30
BUT THE REALITY IS, THE KIND OF
DENSITY OF HER EXTENSIVE CRUDE IS TO HOW MUCH WE CONSUME, THE
ELASTICITY IS MUCH LESS THAN IT USED TO BE.
所以當這些精煉產品變得更便宜、投入成本也更低時，我們可能會看到需求增加。
43:37
SO AS THOSE REFINED PRODUCTS GET CHEAPER AND THE INPUTS ARE
CHEAPER, WE MIGHT SEE DEMAND INCREASE.
估計每天大約增加 7 到 8 萬桶，基於成本下降的因素。
43:43
THE ESTIMATES ARE 70-80,000 BARRELS A DAY BASED ON, KIND OF
LOWER COST.
但這還不夠顯著，不足以真正改變大局。
43:51
BUT IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REALLY
MOVE THE NEEDLE.
ALIX: ALRIGHT, REBECCA, THANKS A LOT,
SENIOR ENERGY TRADER AT CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH GROUP BRAND
HAS 40% SHORT POSITIONS RIGHT
在短短幾天內大幅增加——布蘭特原油。
44:08
NOW, RAMPED UP TREMENDOUSLY IN
A FEW DATES -- BRENT CRUDE.
ROMAINE：我不明白 OPEC+ 是如何做這些決定的。
44:13
ROMAINE:
I DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW OPEC+ MAKES THESE DECISIONS.
他們會考慮關稅可能帶來的經濟拖累嗎？
44:17
DO THEY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ECONOMIC DRAG
FROM TARIFFS?
他們會考慮關稅可能帶來的經濟拖累嗎？
44:22
ALIX: THEY DON'T LIKE CHEATERS.
ALIX: 他們不喜歡作弊者。
44:24
KAZAKHSTAN HAS BEEN PUMPING ABOUT THEIR PRODUCTION LEVEL.
哈薩克一直在誇大他們的產量。
44:27
THEY SAID WE WILL NOT SUBSIDIZE YOU ANYMORE.
他們說我們不會再補貼你們了。
44:30
STICK TO THE ALLIANCE OR YOU WILL GET LOWER PRICES.
堅守聯盟，否則你們將面臨更低的價格。
44:33
ROMAINE:
AND THE DROPS WE ARE SEEING ON THE DAY AND ON THE WEEK IN THE
ENERGY SPACE ARE PRETTY DRAMATIC.
ROMAINE: 我們看到能源領域在當日和當週的跌幅相當驚人。
44:38
YOU SEE THE NUMBERS HERE, I WANT TO POINT OUT THE OTHER
POCKETS OF THE COMMODITY SPACE.
你在這裡看到的數據，我想指出商品領域的其他板塊。
44:44
THAT DROP WE HAVE SEEN.
我們看到的那波下跌。
44:45
THE SOFT COMMODITIES GOT HIT PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR RETALIATION.
軟商品受到衝擊，主要是因為報復的可能性。
44:51
BUT ALSO A LOT OF THE
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES THAT ARE SORT OF THE ENGINES OF OUR
ECONOMY -- ALUMINUM, COPPER.
但還有許多作為我們經濟引擎的工業商品——鋁、銅。
44:58
HUGE DROPS ON THE DAY AND ON THE WEEK.
當日和當週都出現了大幅下跌。
45:02
10% ON COPPER, WHICH WE ACTUALLY SAW IRALITY THERE A
FEW WEEKS AGO AS PEOPLE THOUGHT IT WOULD BENEFIT FROM THIS --
銅下跌了10%，實際上幾週前我們確實看到了這一點，當時人們以為它會從中受益——
45:13
WE SAW A RALLY THERE A FEW
WEEKS AGO.
幾週前我們看到那裡有一波反彈。
45:15
TAKE A LOOK ALIX: ALIX: AT WHERE WE ARE HERE.
ALIX: 看看我們目前的位置。
45:19
LOOK AT THE STOXX INDEX AND THE SEMI-INDEX.
看看STOXX指數和半導體指數。
45:22
THE SUPERLATIVES ARE
TREMENDOUS.
數字非常驚人。
45:24
THE STOCKS INDEX DOWN FOR SEVEN
STRAIGHT WEEKS, AT WORST LOSING STREAK SINCE 2002.
股票指數連續七週下跌，是自2002年以來最嚴重的連跌紀錄。
45:29
READ ACROSS THE BOARD.
整體來看。
45:33
CAN'T SEEM TO GET OFF THE LOWS.
似乎無法擺脫低點。
45:36
ROMAINE: YEAH, AND THE S&P OF OF THE
DAY, BUT A 5.4% DROP, 10% DROP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ROMAINE: 是的，S&P當日跌幅為5.4%，過去幾天跌了10%。
45:41
BACK ABOVE THE 50 100 LEVEL.
回到50和100日均線之上。
45:45
WELL INTO CORRECTION TERRITORY.
已經進入修正區間。
45:48
ONLY 18 S&P STOCKS AS WE SPEAK IN THE GREEN, LED BY NAMES LIKE
NIKE, D.R.
目前僅有18檔標普500指數成分股上漲，由NIKE、D.R.
45:54
HORTON. OUR NEXT GUEST JOINS US BECAUSE
WE CONTINUE TO KHON 2 DOWN TO THE CLOSING BELLS.
HORTON等個股領漲。我們的下一位來賓加入我們，是因為
45:59
SHE IS EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CIO FOR WEALTH MANAGEMENT
AT NORTHERN TRUST.
她是北方信託（NORTHERN TRUST）財富管理部門的執行副總裁兼首席投資長。
46:04
KD, WHICH TOOK ABOUT TWO DAYS I AM SURE
WE WILL ALL REMEMBER.
KD（Katie Dugan），我想大概花了兩天時間，
46:09
IS THIS A BIT OF A RESET FOR
THE MARKET AS PEOPLE DIGEST THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT AND
THEN MAY BE RESET NEXT WEEK WHEN HOPEFULLY WE GET A BIT
MORE CLARITY?
這是否是市場的一種重置，因為投資人正在消化潛在的經濟衝擊，
46:20
OR IS THIS THE START OF THE
MORE PAIN DOCTRINE?
或者這只是「更痛苦學說」的開始？
46:23
KATIE: THAT'S THE QUESTION.
凱蒂：這正是關鍵問題。
46:24
I DON'T THINK THE ANSWER IS CLEAR.
我認為答案還不明朗。
46:26
WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
未來幾天會發生什麼事。
46:29
YOU KNOW THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN BE MODIFIED AND WALKED BACK.
眾所皆知，這些公告可能會被修改或撤回。
46:35
BUT I THINK THE SHOCK YOU ARE SEEING REFLECTED
IN ALL THE RED ON THE SCREEN THAT YOU ARE ACTUALLY
EMBLEMATIC OF THE MARKET THAT
但我認為，你在螢幕上看到的所有紅字所反映出的這股衝擊，
46:43
WASN'T PREPARED FOR WHAT CAME
OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
並未對週三下午公佈的內容做好準備。
46:48
UNTIL THAT BECOMES A LITTLE BIT
CLEARER IN TERMS OF THE LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS, I'M NOT
SURE WE CAN OFFICIALLY SAY THAT THIS IS A RESET AND WE WILL
BUILD UP FROM HERE.
在長期影響變得更明朗之前，
47:00
I THINK WE WILL BE IN THIS
UNCERTAINTY FOR A WHILE.
我認為我們將在這種不確定性中持續一段時間。
47:05
IT COULD MEAN MORE NEWS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THAT COULD HAVE AN OPPOSITE EFFECT.
這可能意味著週末會有更多消息，而這可能會產生反效果。
47:09
ROMAINE:
I GUESS THE QUESTION BECOMES, FOR YOUR CLIENT AND THE GENERAL
COHORT HERE, WHAT IS A CONVERSATION THAT NEEDS TO BE
HAD RIGHT NOW?
羅曼：
47:19
FOR THOSE FOLKS THAT WILL BE
LOOKING AT THEIR PORTFOLIOS OVER THE WEEKEND, A LOT SMARTER
THAN THE TWO A WEEK AGO.
對於那些將在週末檢視其投資組合的人來說，
47:26
IT IS THE CONVERSATION "STAY
THE COURSE." OR DO YOU START TO TALK ABOUT A
MEANINGFUL REALLOCATION OF THAT CASH?
這是關於「堅持到底」的對話？還是您開始討論
47:34
KATIE:
WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS NOT STAY THE COURSE.
凱蒂：
47:40
STAY THE COURSE FEELS LIKE, EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE FINE
AND LET'S JUST HUNKER DOWN AND LET THE STORM CARROTS.
堅持到底的感覺是，一切都會好起來的，我們只需要堅持下去，讓風暴過去。
47:47
WHAT WE ARE SEEING TO OUR CLIENT IS, CONFIRM THE COURSE.
我們對客戶的建議是，確認既定路線。
47:51
MAKE SURE YOU ARE RIGHT.
確保您的投資是正確的。
47:53
ARE YOU ALIGNED WITH YOUR ASSET
ALLOCATIONS TO YOUR FINANCIAL GOALS?
您的資產配置是否與您的財務目標一致？
47:58
IF NOT, THERE IS ALWAYS A GOOD TIME TO REAFFIRM YOUR ASSET
ALLOCATIONS, EVEN WHEN RISK ASSETS ARE STRESSED.
如果不是，即使在風險資產面臨壓力時，也總是重新確認資產配置的好時機。
48:06
IF YOU ARE NOT RIGHT WITH YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION, AND NOW IS A
TIME TO ADJUST.
如果您的資產配置不正確，現在就是調整的時機。
48:13
SECOND THING, AND IT'S RELATIVE TO MICROMET
EARLIER,'S WE EXPECT THIS UNCERTAINTY TO PERSIST FOR A
WHILE, SO WE WANT TO MAKE SURE
第二點，這與稍早提到的微觀有關，我們預期這種不確定性將持續一段時間，所以我們希望確保...
48:22
ALL CLIENTS AND INVESTORS CAN
SURVIVE AND THRIVE THROUGH A PERIOD OF MARKET VOLATILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY.
所有客戶和投資者都能在市場波動和不確定的時期中生存並茁壯成長。
48:26
ONE OF THE WAYS THEY CAN DO
THAT IS MAKING SURE THEY HAVE CASH, HIGHLY LIQUID CASH AND
HIGH-QUALITY FIXED INCOME IN A PORTFOLIO RESERVE PORTFOLIO.
THEY CAN USE THAT TO DRAW DOWN, FUND THEIR GOALS AND LIFESTYLE
AND LIVE THEIR LIFE AND A LOW ASSET MARKETS TO RECOVER.
他們可以利用這筆資金來支應目標和生活方式，度過生活，等待低點的資產市場復甦。
48:44
WE DON'T KNOW WHEN THEY COULD HAPPEN.
我們不知道復甦何時會發生。
48:46
IT COULD HAPPEN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ANNOUNCEMENT OR SUCK IT COULD TAKE LONGER.
它可能在週末透過一項聲明就發生，也可能需要更長的時間。
48:53
BUT WHAT WE DO KNOW FROM HISTORY IS THAT THEY WILL
RECOVER.
但我們從歷史中知道的是，市場終將復甦。
48:57
WE WENT TO MAKE SURE THAT
MARKETS AREN'T FORCED TO SELL INTO A MARKET DOWNTURN LIKE
THIS.
我們希望確保投資者不會被迫在像這樣的市場衰退中拋售。
49:03
IN THE LAST THING IS SOMETHING
HAVE HEARD FROM MANY GUESTS TODAY, IS MAKE SURE YOU ARE
DIVERSIFIED.
最後一點，也是今天許多來賓都提到的，就是確保您做好了分散投資。
49:09
WE ARE SEEING ACUTE PAIN IN U.S.
我們看到美國科技股...
49:10
TECHNOLOGY AND ACROSS LARGE CAP S&P 500.
以及大型股標普500指數出現劇烈疼痛。
49:12
BUT WE ARE SEEING BETTER PERFORMANCE OUT OF NON-US
MARKETS, THINGS LIKE LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE.
但我們也看到非美國市場，例如上市基礎建設，表現得更好。
49:19
MAKE SURE YOU ARE DIVERSIFIED EVEN WITHIN YOUR RISKY ASSET
PORTFOLIO, AND THAT WILL HELP YOU WEATHER THE STORM.
即使在您的風險資產組合中也要確保分散投資，這將幫助您度過難關。
49:26
ALIX:
DOES THAT MEAN ALSO FOR OUTSIDE THE U.S.
亞歷克斯：這是否也意味著在美國以外的地區？
49:29
-- I AM TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE MONEY THAT CAME TO THE U.S.
我試圖理解流入美國的資金
49:31
IN THE LAST 10 YEARS, IT NOW NEEDS TO LEAVE THE U.S.
在過去 10 年來，現在需要離開美國
49:36
IN SOME CAPACITY?
在某種程度上？
49:38
KATIE: IT REALLY DOES,
ALIX, WE HAVE BEEN SO U.S.-CENTERED FOR SOME TIME.
凱蒂：確實如此，
49:46
THIS IS WHERE EARNINGS AND GROWTH HAS BEEN.
這就是獲利與成長所在的地方。
49:50
BUT WE HAVE SEEN SLIDO IN THE U.S.
但我們已經看到美國股市出現下滑。
49:54
WITH THERE BEING MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE OUTLOOK AMONG THESE MARKET LEADERS, YOU
NATURALLY GRAVITATE TO OTHER AREAS OF THE GLOBAL EQUITY
LANDSCAPE.
隨著這些市場領導者的前景存在更多
49:59
THOSE UNDISCOVERED AREAS UNTIL
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO, HAVE BEEN IN EUROPE, IN
ASIA.
這些直到幾個月前才被發現的領域，
50:06
THAT IS WHERE EXPECTATIONS HAVE
BEEN REALLY LOW COMING INTO THIS PERIOD, WHILE EXPECTATIONS IN
THE U.S.
這些地方的預期在進入這段時期時
50:13
WERE EXTREMELY HIGH COMING INTO
THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY.
在進入這段不確定時期時
50:17
SO ASX WE ARE ABSOLUTELY
RECOMMENDING TO OUR CLIENTS TO BE A GLOBAL
INVESTOR, TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OPPORTUNITIES OUTSIDE OF THE
U.S.
因此，我們絕對建議我們的客戶成為全球
50:25
I THINK YOU WILL GET MORE BENEFIT FROM GLOBAL
DIVERSIFICATION NOW THAN YOU HAVE IN THE PAST, BECAUSE OF
THE MARKET MAY ACT DIFFERENTLY
我認為現在你會從全球多元化中獲得比過去更多的好處，因為市場在
50:34
UNDER THIS NEW TARIFF REGIME.
這個新的關稅制度下可能會有不同的表現。
50:35
ALIX: BUT IF WE LINED UP.
艾力克斯：但如果我們把所有
50:37
ALL GLOBAL GROWTH -- DOES THAT
EXPECTATION MEAN THAT WE WILL NOT SEE GLOBAL GROWTH, IT WILL
BE A VERY U.S.-CENTRIC STORY?
全球成長排列出來——這個預期是否意味著我們不會看到全球成長，而將是一個非常以美國為中心的故事？
50:47
KATIE: NOT REALLY.
凱蒂：並不盡然。
50:48
IT IS THE QUESTION OF WHAT IS BAKED INTO PRICES AND INTO
EXPECTATIONS.
這問題在於什麼已經反映在價格和預期中。
50:52
I THINK THE SLOWDOWN THAT WE
ARE EXPECTING IN THE U.S.
我認為我們預期美國的
50:56
IS MORE ACUTE THAN HAD BEEN
EXPECTED, AND THAT HAS NOT BEEN PRICED INTO THE
MARKET, AND I WOULD SAY IT'S NOT EVEN PRICED IN TODAY.
經濟放緩比預期的更嚴重，而這尚未反映在市場價格中，我甚至要說直到今天都還沒完全反映。
51:03
WE'VE HAD A 10% CORRECTION AND THAT FEELS VERY DIFFICULT AND
TERRIBLE.
我們經歷了 10% 的修正，這感覺非常困難且糟糕。
51:08
BUT THAT IS NOT A RECESSIONARY
CORRECTION.
但這並非衰退性修正。
51:09
SO I DON'T THINK NECESSARILY
THAT MARKETS HAVE COMPLETELY I JUST DID TO THE DOWNSIDE
SCENARIO OF WHAT COULD UNFOLD IN THE U.S.
所以我不認為市場必然已完全反映出美國可能發生的下行情境。
51:17
IF THESE TARIFFS DO REMAIN.
如果這些關稅真的維持下去。
51:20
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF VALUATIONS
AND EXPECTATIONS BEING SO MUCH LOWER ABROAD, EVEN IF WE HAVE A
SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH IN EUROPE AND IN ASIA, YOU DON'T HAVE AS
FAR TO FALL, FRANKLY.
然而，由於海外的估值與預期都低得多，即使歐洲和亞洲的增長放緩，坦白說，下跌空間也沒那麼大。
51:31
ROMAINE: ALRIGHT, KATIE NIXON, EXECUTIVE
VICE PRESIDENT AND CIO FOR WEALTH MANAGEMENT AT NORTHERN
TRUST, HELPING US GOT YOU DOWN
THE CLOSING BELLS ON WHAT IS IT
WILL BE A HISTORICAL WEEK.
在這將是歷史性的一週之際，為收盤鐘聲做總結。
51:45
START HEADING BACK DOWN TOWARDS
SESSION LOWS.
開始回落至盤中低點。
51:47
YOUR LOW FOR THE S&P 500 WAS
5072.
標普500指數的低點是5072。
51:51
WE ARE AT 5077.
目前我們在5077。
51:54
TALK ABOUT CORRECTION TERRITORY
FOR THE S&P, A BEAR MARKET TERRITORY FOR THE RUSSELL.
談談標普進入修正領域，羅素指數進入熊市領域。
51:57
CORRECTION TERRITORY FOR THE DOW.
道瓊進入修正領域。
52:00
BEAR MARKET TERRITORY FOR THE DOW TRANSPORTS IS 20% TO 30%
DECLINES ON A SECTOR BASIS.
道瓊運輸指數進入熊市領域，各個板塊跌幅在20%到30%之間。
52:08
ALIX: THIS STOCK HAD A LEVEL OF
SUPPORT AT 5100.
ALIX: 這檔股票在5100點有支撐位。
52:14
NOW IT IS AT 5500 BECOMING MORE
RESISTANCE LEVEL.
現在在5500點，正成為更強的阻力位。
52:18
A WHOLE DIFFERENT LINEUP AT THE END OF THE-DAY PERIOD AND THE
SEMIS, SUPERLATIVES.
在當日時段結束時，整個半導體族群的陣容完全不同，表現極佳。
52:25
ROMAINE: ARE UNFAVORABLE ABSOLUTELY,
TALK ABOUT THIS IDEA OF WHAT IS THE FAILURE OF WHAT IS IMPORTANT
, WHICH COULD MAKE THE
ROMAINE: 絕對不利，談談這個關於什麼是重要事物失敗的想法，這可能讓...
52:52
ARGUMENT, ARE WE SEEM TO ALIX:
WORKSHOP THAT SETS US UP ALIX: FOR A REBOUND?
ALIX: ...我們認為這是一個讓我們為反彈做準備的工作坊？
52:55
JULIAN EMANUEL THINKS MONDAY WILL BE BAD BUT THAT TO MIGHT
NOT BE.
Julian Emanuel 認為週一會很糟，但週二可能不會。
52:59
IN THE VIX IS PICKING UP, TOO,
WHICH LEADS TO THAT IDEA, IF CORPORATIONS PICK UP, THERE WE
GO?
VIX 指數也在上升，這也帶出那個想法，如果企業信心回升，那不就解決了嗎？
53:04
ROMAINE: THERE WILL BE A SPECIAL EDITION
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON STARTING AT 5:00 P.M.
ROMAINE: 我們將在週日下午5點開始有一場特別節目。
53:07
EASTERN TIME TO SET YOU UP FOR THE MONDAY TRADE.
東部時間為您準備好週一的交易。
53:09
RIGHT NOW WE BREAK DOWN THE FRIDAY TRADE WITH OUR GLOBAL
SIMULCAST.
現在，我們將透過全球同步直播來分析週五的交易。
53:17
♪ >> THE, BLOOMBERG'S COMPREHENSIVE
MARKET COVERAGE OF THE U.S.
♪ >> 彭博對美國收盤的全面市場報導，現在開始。
53:20
CLOSE, START RIGHT NOW.
ROMAINE: 距離交易日結束還有兩分鐘。
53:21
ROMAINE:
WE ARE TWO MINUTES AWAY FROM THE END OF THE TRADING DAY.
ROMAINE BOSTICK 與 ALIX STEEL 為您帶來收盤鐘的現場。
53:25
ROMAINE BOSTICK HERE WITH ALIX STEEL, TAKING YOU ACROSS TO THE
CLOSING BELL.
我們的全球同步直播現在開始。
53:32
OUR GLOBAL SIMULCAST STARTS
RIGHT NOW.
SCARLET FU 度假歸來。
53:33
SCARLET FU BACK FROM VACATION.
CAROL MASSAR 和 TIM STENOVEC 依然在此，對所有參與者來說，這相對來說是相當累人的一週，因為我們的受眾遍佈我們的各大平台，包括電視、廣播和 YouTube。
53:39
CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC
STILL HERE, ON WHAT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY EXHAUSTING WEEK FOR
EVERYONE INVOLVED, AS WE OUR AUDIENCES ACROSS OUR OUR
PLATFORMS INCLUDING TELEVISION,
標普500指數下跌了百分之六。
53:47
RADIO, AND YOUTUBE.
CAROL: 我們原本期待透過某種轉折來扭轉局面，但結果無疑是再次令人失望。
53:48
THE S&P DOWN SIX PERCENT.
這是有史以來最糟糕的一週。
53:51
CAROL: WE WERE LOOKING TO SEE IF WE
START ANYTHING BY TWIST TO THE CLOTHES, BUT DEFINITELY TAKING
ANOTHER LET DOWN.
自 2020 年 3 月 Maggie Rose 疫情爆發以來首見。
53:58
LOOKING AT THE WORST WEEK.
本週標普500指數市值蒸發約 52 億美元。
54:00
SINCE MARCH OF 2020, BACK MAGGIE ROSE OF COVID.
這無疑是主要風險之一，而這些風險確實是源自川普總統的關稅政策。
54:07
AND WE HAVE THE S&P LOSING SOMETHING LIKE $5.2 BILLION
THIS WEEK.
WE HAVE GIVEN UP OUR GAINS FROM THE S&P FOR GOING BACK ALMOST A
YEAR.
我們已經回吐了標準普爾 500 指數將近一年的漲幅。
54:41
IT IS TRADING AT A LEVEL LAST
SEEN IN MAY OF 2024.
目前的交易水準，上次見到是在 2024 年 5 月。
54:45
SCARLET:
AND LET'S NOT FORGET IT'S FRIDAY.
SCARLET：別忘了今天是星期五。
54:46
WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
誰知道週末期間會發生什麼事。
54:47
PEOPLE DON'T NECESSARILY WANT TO BE LONG OVER THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THERE COULD BE SOME DEALS ANNOUNCED.
投資人未必想在週末期間持有部位（做多），因為可能會有某些交易宣布。
54:49
IF YOU DON'T WANT TO BE EXPOSED TO THAT.
如果你不想曝險於這種風險。
54:51
HAVING SAID THAT, THE RALLY IN TREASURIES,
THE SAFE HAVEN OF CHOICE HAS REALLY LOST A LOT OF STEAM.
話雖如此，美國公債（作為首選避險資產）的漲勢已經失去動力。
54:59
[CLOSING BELL RINGING AND CHEERS] ROMAINE: ROMAINE:
WE ARE GETTING THE CLOSING
[收盤鐘聲與歡呼聲] ROMAINE：我們即將迎來收盤
55:03
BELLS. I WANT TO POINT OUT EQUITY OPTION VOLUME FOR BOTH STOCKS
AND INDICES LOOK LIKE IT HAS HIT A RECORD
HIGH -- IT WILL TAKE A BIT FOR
鐘聲。我想指出的是，股票與指數的期權成交量，似乎都創下了歷史
55:13
US TO GET THE FINAL NUMBERS ON
THAT.
新高——我們還需要一點時間
55:14
REMEMBER, YESTERDAY WITH THE
SECOND-MOST ACTIVE DAY OUT EQUITY OPTIONS MARKET ON
RECORD, AND IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY HAS SURPASSED THAT, TO
OVERTAKE THE RECORD SET A FEW
才能拿到最終的數據。記得昨天是期權市場
55:24
YEARS AGO.
歷史上第二個最活躍的交易日，而今天看來已經超越了那天，即將超越幾年前創下的紀錄。
55:24
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSING OUT THE DATE LOWER BY
5.5%.
道瓊斯工業平均指數收盤下跌 5.5%。
55:32
A DROP OF 2231 POINTS.
下跌 2231 點。
55:36
NOW SETTLING AT 38,003 HUNDRED
13.
目前收在 38,003.13。
55:38
S&P 500 BELOW 5100, A DROP OF
MORE THAN 6%.
標普 500 指數跌破 5100 點，跌幅超過 6%。
55:45
AND THAT TO YESTERDAY, YOU CAN
DO THE MATH YOURSELF.
而且跟昨天相比，你自己算一下就知道了。
55:48
NASDAQ DOWN 6%.
那斯達克下跌 6%。
55:49
RUSSELL 2000, DOWN 80 POINTS, 4.4%.
羅素 2000 指數下跌 80 點，跌幅 4.4%。
55:52
CAROL:
LET'S NOT FORGET TOO WE SAW A CREDIT FEAR GAUGE IS SOARING.
CAROL：我們別忘了，信用恐慌指數也在飆升。
56:03
LOOK AT THE S&P 500, ALMOST
EVERY NAME IS LAURA, 480 NINE NAMES.
看看標普 500 指數，幾乎每檔股票都在下跌，有 489 檔股票下跌。
56:07
ONLY 14 GAINERS.
只有 14 檔上漲。
56:10
ENDING THE WEEK DOWN 9.1%, THE BIGGEST DECLINE SINCE MARCH OF
2020.
本週下跌 9.1% 作收，創下 2020 年 3 月以來的最大跌幅。
56:18
ROMAINE: AND WE SHOULD PLAN TO HURT THE
S&P IS GOING DEEPER INTO CORRECTION TERRITORY.
ROMAINE: 我們應該做好心理準備，標普 500 指數將進一步進入修正區域。
56:24
NASDAQ 100 OFFICIALLY IN A BEAR MARKET MORE THAN 20%.
那斯達克 100 指數正式進入熊市，跌幅超過 20%。
56:27
SCARLET:
SHOULDN'T BE SURPRISED WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE IMAP, ACR BREAD,
EVERY SINGLE INDUSTRY GROUP DOWN -- ACR -- A SEA OF RED.
VIETNAM. YOUR SECOND-BEST NAME IN THE NASDAQ 100 TODAY, IT IS UP 3%.
它是今天那斯達克 100 指數中表現第二好的股票，上漲 3%。
57:09
EARLIER IT WAS UP 6%.
稍早一度上漲 6%。
57:11
STILL, 83% GAIN AFTER LOSING
ALMOST 10% IN YESTERDAY'S TRADE.
儘管昨日交易中幾乎下跌 10%，目前仍上漲 83%。
57:16
AS SCARLET MENTIONED THOSE
COMPANIES THAT HAVE LARGE MANUFACTURING OPERATIONS IN
VIETNAM, INCLUDING NIKE AND LULULEMON, SOARING AFTER THE
PRESIDENT SAID HE HAD A REALLY
AN ANALYST AT BARCLAYS ROOTED
EVERYONE THAT EVEN THOUGH BANKS DON'T HAVE THE SAME DIRECT
EXPOSURE TO A GLOBAL TRADE WAR, THEY HAVE EXPOSURE TO THE
INDUSTRIES AFFECTED BY THIS.
巴克萊的一位分析師提醒大家，儘管銀行對全球貿易戰沒有相同的直接曝險，但它們對受此影響的產業有曝險。
58:29
OF COURSE, CONCERNS ABOUT THE
ECONOMY AND INTEREST RATE LEVELS ARE ALSO WEIGHING ON
BASE.
當然，對經濟和利率水準的擔憂也正在打壓銀行股。
58:35
ROMAINE: THERE IS SOME DIRECT EXPOSURE
WHEN IT COMES TO CAPITAL MARKETS, THE IPO'S THAT WERE
PUT ON PAUSE TODAY -- KLARNA,
還有一些直接曝險，就資本市場而言，今天暫停的IPO包括Klarma
58:44
MARTIN, CHIME AND
STUBHUB, TO NAME A FEW.
Martin、Chime 和 StubHub，僅舉幾例。
58:47
NOT A SINGLE SALE IN THE
CORPORATE DEBT MARKETS TODAY OR YESTERDAY.
今天或昨天公司債市場完全沒有任何一筆銷售。
58:51
AND TO TOP THAT OFF, THE GENERAL DEALMAKING ACTIVITY,
THERE WERE SEVERAL M&A DEALS THAT WERE ALSO PUT ON ICE.
此外，整體交易活動方面，有幾樁M&A交易也同樣被擱置。
58:59
TIM: IN SUCH A SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME, IT HAS BEEN PRETTY REMARKABLE.
Tim：在這麼短的時間內，這相當驚人。
59:02
ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON U.S.
另外請關注美國
59:06
STOCKS -- CHINESE STOCKS TRADED
IN THE U.S., THE NASDAQ GOLDEN DRAGON INDEX IS DOWN CLOSE TO
9% TODAY, AFTER BEIJING RETALIATED WITH AN EXTRA 34%
LEVY ON ALL IMPORTS FROM THE
股市——在美國交易的中國股票，那斯達克金龍指數今天下跌近9%，此前北京當局以對所有進口自
59:15
U.S. SHARES OF THE GOLDEN DRAGON
INDEX ARE LOWER BY CLOSE TO 9%
美國的商品加徵34%的稅進行報復。金龍指數成分股下跌近9%
59:26
TODAY. STILL, ANALYSTS SAY THE
RETALIATION CAME SOONER AND STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH
RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT AN ESCALATING TRADE WAR.
今天。儘管如此，分析師表示，報復行動比預期來得更早且更強烈，這引發了對貿易戰升級的擔憂。
59:35
ALIX:
WHERE TO GO WHEN YOU NEED SAFETY?
Alix：當你需要安全時，該往哪裡去？
59:39
THE BOND MARKET.
公債市場。
59:41
BUT THE MOVES, I FEEL, WERE
SOMEWHAT TEAM.
但我覺得走勢有些平緩。
59:43
THAT WE ARE ACCOUNT IS DOWN THREE BASIS POINTS.
我們追蹤的品種下跌了3個基點。
59:45
THERE ARE SOFT, ABOUT THE SAME.
其他品種跌幅也差不多。
59:47
ON A WEEKLY BASIS, JUST 13
BASIS POINTS LOWER FOR THE 2-YEAR, AND 10 BASIS POINTS LOWER FOR THE 10-YEAR.
以週為單位來看，2年期公債僅下跌13個基點，10年期公債下跌10個基點。
59:58
IT'S A MODERATION OF BUYING.
這代表買盤力道趨緩。
1:00:01
NEVERTHELESS, THE 10-YEAR,
DIPPING BELOW 4% AT ONE POINT.
儘管如此，10年期殖利率一度跌破4%。
1:00:03
SIGNIFICANT.
這點相當關鍵。
1:00:03
CAN I MENTION COMMODITIES FOR A SECOND?
我可以稍微談談大宗商品嗎？
1:00:05
WE HAD A HUGE SELLOFF
PARTICULARLY SUCK CRUDE.
我們出現了巨大的拋售潮，尤其是原油。
1:00:10
DOWN A WHOPPING 6% IN THE DAY.
單日跌幅高達6%。
1:00:12
IN FIVE DAYS, OIL IN THE U.S.
在短短五天內，美國原油價格。
1:00:14
IS DOWN 10%.
已下跌10%。
1:00:21
ROMAINE:
I WAS KEEPING AN EYE ON FLUIDS GOING TO THURSDAY, BUT TALK
ABOUT RECORD INFLOWS INTO GOLD ETFS FOR MOST RECORD LEVEL
INFLOWS INTO EUROPEAN, ETF'S
ETF'S, AND ACTUALLY A LOT OF INFLOWS INTO EM AND A LOT OF
OUTFLOWS FROM THE U.S.
ETF，實際上新興市場也有大量資金流入，而美國則有大量資金流出。
1:00:43
ONE GUEST TELLING US MAY BE A
SHORT FENCE RIGHT NOW AS WE ENTER A BEAR MARKET.
有位來賓告訴我們，隨著我們進入熊市，目前可能只是短暫的反彈。
1:00:47
IS THAT JUST ABOUT TARIFFS BUT THE IMPACT OF DOGE AND DEEPSEEK
IN JANUARY.
這單純是因為關稅嗎？還是受到了 Doge 和 Deepseek 在一月份的影響？
1:00:53
SCARLET: IF YOU LOOK AT ONE-DAY DAY
FLOWS, YESTERDAY, THE THING THAT TRACKS SHORT-TERM
TREASURY'S SIDE MOST INFLOWS.
SCARLET：如果觀察單日資金流向，昨天追蹤短期公債的那檔 ETF 資金流入最多。
1:01:08
$4.5 BILLION COMING OUT OF SPY
THE TRADER OF YOUR THE S&P 500,.
SPY（追蹤標普500指數的ETF）流出了45億美元。
1:01:14
CAROL:
MY CONCERN IS THAT IF THE TRADE WAR STAYS AROUND FOR A LONG
TIME AND IT BECOMES A RECESSION, WHAT HAPPENS COULD
ULTIMATELY -- WE WILL IMPACT
我的擔憂是，如果貿易戰持續很長一段時間，並演變成經濟衰退，最終可能發生的後果是——我們將影響
1:01:21
THE WHOLE WORLD, RIGHT, IF WE
SEE OUR GLOBAL TRADE WAR, IT WILL NOT BE GOOD FOR THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY.
整個世界，對吧？如果我們看到全球貿易戰，這對全球經濟將是不利的。
1:01:27
THE OTHER THING IS, EVERYBODY
SAYS THE CAVEAT -- WHAT IF TRUMP CHANGES HIS MIND NEXT
WEEK OR WHAT HAVE YOU, HOW LONG THESE TARIFFS THAT DETERMINES
WHAT
另外，大家都提到一個警訊——如果川普下週改變主意或其他情況，這些關稅將持續多久，決定了什麼
1:01:36
HAPPENED. ALIX:
AND YOU TALK ABOUT HOW MANY DECLINERS THERE ARE VERSES
ADVANCING STOCKS IN THE S&P, AND THAT PICKUP GET ACROSS AS A
VOLATILITY AND THE PICKUP IN
會發生。艾莉克絲：你剛才提到在標普500指數中，下跌股與上漲股的數量，這種急升被視為
1:01:49
THE VIX, OUR REFUND OF THE
CLEARING SOME POSITIONING OUT WHICH WOULD STIMULATE THE EQUITY
MARKET?
波動性，以及VIX指數的急升，我們是否清除了某些部位，從而刺激股票市場？
1:01:56
TIM: I DON'T KNOW.
提姆：我不知道。
1:01:58
WE SPOKE TO FOLKS EARLIER ON
OUR PROGRAM PERCENT 4450 IS WHAT HE EXPECTS ON THE S&P 500,
SO HE SEES FURTHER ROOM TO MOVE LOWER.
我們稍早在節目中與投資人談過，他預期標普500指數會跌至4450點，所以他認為還有下跌空間。
1:02:05
CAROL:
ALL I CAN TELL YOU IS THAT I AM READY FOR MY PIZZA AND WINE.
我只能告訴你，我已經準備好要吃披薩配紅酒了。
1:02:09
TIM: IT IS FRIDAY.
提姆：今天是星期五。
1:02:11
CAROL: THAT IS AREA.
卡蘿：沒錯。
1:02:12
TIM:
INTERESTING DAY FOR SCARLET TO COME BACK FROM VACATION.
提姆：對史嘉蕾來說，休假回來真是個有趣的日子。
1:02:16
[LAUGHTER] CAROL: BE SURE TO CHECK OUT THE
SURVEILLANCE SPECIAL.
[笑聲] 卡蘿：記得去看看監控特別節目。
1:02:19
THAT'S A WRAP UP OF OUR
CROSS-PLATFORM COVERAGE ON RADIO, TV, YOUTUBE AND
BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS.
WE WILL SEE YOU AGAIN SAME TIME, SAME PLACE TOMORROW -- ON
MONDAY.
我們將在明天——星期一，同一時間、同一地點與大家見面。
1:02:31
ROMAINE: AND WE CONTINUE OUR COVERAGE
HERE.
羅曼：我們將在這裡繼續我們的報導。
1:02:36
SCARLET, AND OTHER SUPERLATIVES
WAS VOLUME.
量能是創下紀錄的超級焦點。
1:02:39
IT WAS AT A RECORD TODAY, 26 BILLION SHARES
SLAPPING HANDS.
今日成交量創下歷史新高，達 260 億股，市場一片歡騰。
1:02:44
AT NO POINT SINCE THAT INDEX
HAS EXISTED HAVE WE SEEN THE TYPE OF VOLUME IN A SINGLE DAY.
自該指數成立以來，從未見過單日如此巨大的交易量。
1:02:52
SCARLET: AND IT SPEAKS TO THE IDEA THAT
NOBODY KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN INCLUDING THIS WEEKEND.
SCARLET：這也說明了，包括本週末在內，沒人知道接下來會發生什麼事。
1:02:57
SO WHY STICK AROUND?
那又何必守在這裡？
1:02:58
YOU CAN ALWAYS COME BACK NEXT
WEEK.
你下週隨時都可以再回來。
1:02:59
ROMAINE: AND WE SAW THAT IT AFFECTED
ONLY 14 STOCKS IN THE S&P ROSE TODAY.
ROMAINE：我們看到這波行情只讓 S&P 中的 14 檔股票上漲。
1:03:06
EVERYTHING ELSE WAS DOWN.
其他所有板塊都在下跌。
1:03:07
A 6% DROP FOR THE S&P.
標普500指數下跌6%。
1:03:08
ADD THAT TO THE FIVE PLUS PERCENT DECLINE YESTERDAY, AND
WE ARE IN UNCHARTED WATERS, SOME OF THE WORST DATES GOING
BACK TO THE ONSET OF THE
再加上昨天超過5%的跌幅，我們正處於未知的水域，這是自疫情爆發以來最糟糕的幾天之一。
1:03:15
PANDEMIC. THE S&P BACK IN CORRECTION TERRITORY.
標普500指數重回修正區域。
1:03:19
RUSSELL 2000, IN BEAR MARKET TERRITORY.
羅素2000指數進入熊市區域。
1:03:22
THE SIEBEL VICKS INDEX AT ONE POINT SPIKES TO THE HIGHEST
LEVEL SINCE AUGUST.
芝加哥波動率指數（VIX）一度飆升至8月以來的最高水平。
1:03:28
THE 2-YEAR YIELD, 30 BASIS POINT DROP IN
THE YIELD JUST OVER THE LAST FIVE DAYS.
2年期公債殖利率，在過去五天內殖利率下降了30個基點。
1:03:34
FLIP THE BOARD AND LOOK AT THE SECTORS -- AIRLINES TOOK IT ON
THE CHIN.
換個角度看看各個板塊——航空業遭受重創。
1:03:38
NOW ENTERING BEAR MARKET
TERRITORY.
現在已進入熊市區域。
1:03:43
WE GET EARNINGS OUT OF DELTA
NEXT WEDNESDAY SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING.
我們將於下週三看到達美航空的財報，屆時將會很有趣。
1:03:45
NEXT FRIDAY WE START GETTING EARNINGS OUT OF FAANG STOCKS
INCLUDING NAMES LIKE BARBARA AND STANLEY.
下週五我們將開始看到FAANG股票的財報，包括Barbara和Stanley等公司。
1:03:53
THAT INDEX TOOK IT ON THE CHIN.
那個指數遭受了重創。
1:03:56
NYMEX CRUDE IS DOWN.
紐約原油期貨下跌。
1:03:58
HOMEBUILDERS ARE ONE OF THE FEW BRIGHT SPOTS AS PEOPLE ARE
BETTING ON A FURTHER DROP IN RATES.
建築商是少數的亮點之一，因為投資者押注利率會進一步下降。
1:04:08
SCARLET: SCARLET:
A COUPLE OF COMPANIES REALLY RELY ON MANUFACTURING IN
VIETNAM AND THEY TURNED AROUND PATRICK PROBABLE CAUSE SAID HE
HAD A GOOD CONVERSATION WITH
Scarlet：有幾家公司真的很依賴在越南的製造業，它們出現了轉機。Patrick Probable Cause 說他與越南領導人進行了良好的對話。
1:04:12
THE LEADER OF VIETNAM PERHAPS
INDICATED HE WILL BACK UP ON TARIFFS FOR THE COUNTRY.
也許暗示他將撤銷對該國的關稅。
1:04:16
MAKING WHICH GETS HALF OF ITS APPAREL MADE IN VIETNAM THEY
TODAY.
該公司（Nike）一半的服裝在越南製造，它們今天...
1:04:24
TO LET MIKE REALIZE THAT YOUR
PLAN FOR 40% ON ITS GOODS, THAT STOCK IS UP -- LULULEMON.
讓Mike意識到你對其商品加徵40%關稅的計劃，那檔股票上漲了——Lululemon。
1:04:33
VICTORIA'S SECRET ERASING A 7.5% DROP.
維多利亞的秘密抹去了7.5%的跌幅。
1:04:36
WAYFAIR, KATE HAD LOST 80% IN TRADING TODAY BEFORE TURNING
AROUND IN FACT, IT WAS BRIEFLY HALTED FROM TRADING BECAUSE OF
ALLEGEDLY.
ROMAINE: ALRIGHT, LET'S KEEP IT GOING
WITH LORI CALVASINA, HEAD OF TRADING STRATEGY AT RBC CAPITAL
MARKETS, AS WE ASSESS THE
ROMAINE: 好的，我們繼續邀請 RBC 資本市場的交易策略主管 LORI CALVASINA，讓我們來評估
1:04:54
DAMAGE DONE AND TRY TO LOOK
AHEAD TO WHAT NEXT WEEK MIGHT BRING.
已經造成的損失，並試著展望下週可能發生的情況。
1:04:58
I'M CURIOUS WHAT YOU READ INTO THE SENTIMENT BEHIND THE DROP
IN PRICES THAT WE SAW IN EQUITY MARKETS.
我很好奇，對於我們在股票市場看到的價格下跌背後的氣氛，您有什麼解讀？
1:05:10
>> THANKS FOR HELPING ME.
>> 謝謝您的邀請。
1:05:10
THEY THINK IT DEPENDS ON WHETHER YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT
YESTERDAY OR TODAY.
他們認為這取決於您談論的是昨天還是今天。
1:05:15
ONE OF THE POINT OF
CONVERSATION THAT WAS COMING ACROSS MY DESK AND WITH MY
COLLEAGUES INTERNALLY WAS ABOUT HOW THINGS LIKE THE VIX MOVED
UP AND THINGS LIKE THAT SDDAX.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE THAT CORNER OF
THE OPTIONS MARKET, WE ARE GETTING A BIT MORE FEAR.
所以從期權市場的這個角落來看，我們正感受到多一點恐懼。
1:05:34
NOT QUITE PANIC, BUT SOMETHING WORTH DR.
還不到恐慌的程度，但值得關注。
1:05:36
RICK BRIGHT YESTERDAY
WAS PRETTY ORDERLY, WE WEREN'T SEEING AS MUCH STRESS IN PLACES
LIKE THE SDAZ.
昨天的走勢相當有序，我們沒有看到像 S&P 500 指數那樣出現太多壓力。
1:05:48
I THINK THIS MARKET WANTED TO
BOTTOM AROUND 10% OF THE FEBRUARY PEAK.
我認為這個市場希望在二月高點下跌約 10% 的位置尋獲底部。
1:05:53
A LITTLE INVESTORS I SPOKE TO ESPECIALLY IN THE HEDGE FUND
COMMUNITY THOUGHT THERE WAS STILL A TRUMP
PUT -- I DEBATED THAT AROUND
我談過的一些散戶投資者，特別是在避險基金圈，認為「川普賣權」仍然存在——我為此和他們
1:06:01
WITH THEM.
進行了辯論。
1:06:01
THEY WANTED TO BUY THE DIP AND WEREN'T SURE WHERE THE LOW
WOULD BE.
他們想趁低買進，但不確定低點會在哪裡。
1:06:06
BUT YOU COULD SEE THE MARKET
DEFENDING THAT MID MARCH LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
但您可以看到市場在整個星期都在捍衛三月中的低點。
1:06:13
SO I THINK YOU HAD SOME PEOPLE
SORT OF MAKING SENSE OF THAT AND STRIPPING AWAY THE VERY THE
IDEA THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE WILLING TO ENCOURAGE
SHORT-TERM DAMAGE TO THE
所以我認為有些人正在理解這一點，並摒棄那種認為政府會願意鼓勵
1:06:25
ECONOMY AND TO THE STOCK
MARKET, THAT WASN'T SINKING IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
對經濟和股市造成短期傷害的想法，這種想法在週初時還未被理解。
1:06:30
I THINK IT IS NOW.
我認為現在已經被理解了。
1:06:33
ROMAINE: S&P IS DOWN 17% FROM THAT
ALL-TIME HIGH.
ROMAINE: 標普 500 指數已從歷史高點下跌 17%。
1:06:37
. WE SHOULD POINT OUT THIS IS A
GLOBAL SELLOFF, THE MSCI ALL WORLD COUNTRY INDEX IS DOWN
FROM ITS ALL-TIME HIGH.
我們應該指出，這是一次全球性的拋售，MSCI 全球國家指數也已從歷史高點下跌。
1:06:42
IT RAISES THE QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THERE IS A SWITCH TO BE FLIPPED.
這引出了一個問題：是否有一個開關被打開了。
1:06:48
PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE TRUMP
PUT, AND AT THIS POINT MAYBE IT IS THAT HE BACKS OFF THE
TARIFFS OR MAYBE THERE IS NEGOTIATION, BUT I WONDER IF SO
MUCH DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE, HOW
WHEN WE CUT OUR TARGET DOWN TO
6200 FOR THE FIRST TIME TO 55 50 TODAY, WE MADE THE
ASSUMPTION THAT WE WOULD SEE A RETURN OF A BUSINESS FRIENDLY
EVALUATES TO THE STOCK MARKET
這基於共和黨控制白宮和國會時你能得到的那種優勢。
1:07:57
LATER THIS
YEAR, BANKING ON THE TIP OF THE GAME YOU GET WHEN REPUBLICANS
CONTROLLED THE WHITE HOUSE AND CONGRESS.
我們今天早上撤回了這項假設。
1:08:03
WE TOOK THAT OUT THIS MORNING.
我們需要回顧 2018 年，當時我們經歷了 26% 的回撤。
1:08:07
WE NEEDED TO LOOK BACK AT 2018
WHEN WE HAD A 26% DRAWDOWN.
那是第一年中美貿易戰。
1:08:12
THE YEAR OF THE FIRST CHINA
TRADE WAR.
當時市場情緒過熱，部位佈局過多，且對政策感到擔憂。
1:08:14
WE HAD FROTHY SENTIMENT
POSITIONING, CONCERNS ABOUT POLICY.
這次情況不完全相同，但我們確實認為今年與那年之間有許多相似之處。
1:08:17
IT'S NOT EXACTLY THE SAME THIS TIME AROUND, BUT WE DO THINK
THERE IS A LOT OF SYMMETRY BETWEEN THAT YEAR AND THIS YEAR.
SCARLET: 有趣的是你用 2018 年作為類比。
1:08:26
SCARLET: INTERESTING THAT YOU ARE USING
2018 AS AN ANALOG.
你稍早提到，川普政府曾警告，為了換取將製造業帶回美國的長期利益，他們願意在短期內承受痛苦。
1:08:31
YOU HAD MENTIONED EARLIER THAT
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAD WARNED IT WAS OK WITH ENDURING
PAIN IN THE SHORT TERM IN ORDER TO INCUR LONG-TERM BENEFITS OF
BRINGING MANUFACTURING BACK TO
他的團隊甚至在就職公告前就預測下半年會復甦。
1:08:41
THE U.S.. HIS TEAM HAD PREDICTED RECOVERY IN THE SECOND HALF EVEN BEFORE
THE BIRTH ANNOUNCEMENTS.
對你來說，這選項是否仍在檯面上？
1:08:50
IS THERE STILL ON THE TABLE FOR
YOU?
這選項對您來說是否仍在檯面上？
1:08:54
LORI: WE HAVE 5550 IS OUR YEAR END
TARGET, SO THAT DOES PUT US UP A BIT FROM HERE.
LORI: 我們的年底目標是 5550，因此這讓我們從目前的位置上升了一點。
1:08:57
WE THINK IN THE INTERIM WE COULD GO LOWER.
我們認為在此期間內指數可能會走低。
1:09:00
A TYPICAL GROWTH SCARE AND THAT IS WHAT, WE SEEM TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF RIGHT NOW.
這是一個典型的成長擔憂（Growth Scare），而這正是我們目前似乎身處其中的情境。
1:09:09
THAT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
49 512 5300 RANGE.
這應該會在 4900 至 5300 的區間內觸底。
1:09:16
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE IDEA OF
THE REBOUND, THAT IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY OUR SENTIMENT WORK.
但如果你觀察反彈的想法，這絕對是受到我們情緒指標工作的支持。
1:09:22
IT FALLS OUT OF BED THE LOWS OF 2022, AS BAD AS THE LOWS OF THE
1991 RECESSION AND AS BAD AS THE DEPTHS OF THE FINANCIAL
CRISIS.
THE GDP. HE HAS STRETCHED THE MODEL SHARPLY AND WE CAN STILL GET TO
THAT 5550 NUMBER.
GDP。他大幅拉高了模型，我們仍然可以達到 5550 這個數字。
1:10:53
BUT FRANKLY, SOME OF OUR
MODELING IS MORE PESSIMISTIC IF WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT THE
ECONOMY AND THE VALUATION MARK.
但坦白說，如果我們只看經濟和估值市場，我們的部分建模更為悲觀。
1:11:00
SCARLET:
THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR PERSPECTIVE, LORI CALVASINA IS
HEAD OF U.S.
SCARLET：感謝您分享您的觀點，LORI CALVASINA 是 RBC CAPITAL MARKETS 的美國股票策略主管。
1:11:08
EQUITY STRATEGY AT RBC CAPITAL
MARKETS.
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS 的美國股票策略主管。
1:11:09
CLEARLY DONALD TRUMP'S TARIFFS
ARE REVERBERATING GLOBALLY.
顯然，唐納·川普的關稅正在全球範圍內產生連鎖反應。
1:11:13
FED CHAIR JAY POWELL WARNING
THAT THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LARGER THAN EXPECTED.
聯準會主席傑伊·鮑威爾警告，經濟影響可能比預期大得多。
1:11:22
JOINING US IS A PROFESSOR OF
FINANCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO BOOTH SCHOOL OF
BUSINESS AND FORMER GOVERNOR OF THE RESERVE BANK OF INDIA,
RAGHURAM RAJAN.
加入我們的是芝加哥大學布斯商學院的金融學教授、印度儲備銀行前行長，拉古拉姆·拉詹。
1:11:30
LORI CALVASINA WERE JUST
TALKING ABOUT STAGFLATION, BUT THAT WAS THE
THINKING LAST WEEK AND AT THE EXTREME, TALKED ABOUT RECESSION.
LORI CALVASINA 剛剛談到停滯性通膨，但那是上週的想法，而在極端情況下，甚至談到了衰退。
1:11:39
INCREASINGLY, THEY ARE NOW TALKING ABOUT RECESSION.
現在他們越來越多地談論衰退。
1:11:44
WHAT IS YOUR BASE CASE, RECESSION?
您的基本情況是什麼？衰退嗎？
1:11:48
A GLOBAL RECESSION AT THAT, OR ANYTHING LESS?
是全球性的衰退，還是沒那麼嚴重？
1:11:51
>> THE PROBABILITIES ARE
FLIRTING WITH 50% RIGHT NOW OR RECESSION.
>> 目前衰退的機率正逼近 50%。
1:11:54
FOR EVERY PERCENTAGE POINT INCREASE IN TARIFFS, THE RULE
OF THUMB IS YOU GET 0.1 PERCENTAGE POINT OF GROWTH,
RIGHT, SO IN A 2% GROWTH
ECONOMY, MAY BE 2.5% AND YOU
ARE TAKING 2% OF ALL THAT WITH A 20% INCREASE IN TARIFFS.
所以考慮到已實施的關稅增長，我們談論的是 0% 到 0.5% 的增長。
1:12:14
SO WE ARE TALKING 0% TO 0.5% GROWTH, GIVEN THE TARIFF
INCREASES THAT HAVE TAKEN PLACE.
當然，正如我們所討論的，二手車價格談判可能存在一些不利因素。
1:12:19
OF COURSE AS WE HAVE DISCUSSED,
THERE MAY BE SOME DRAWBACKS OF USED CAR PRICE FAITH
NEGOTIATIONS TAKE PLACE.
通膨方面也是類似，你必須考慮大約 2% 的通膨。
1:12:27
SIMILARLY ON INFLATION, YOU
HAVE TO AS ABOUT 2% TO INFLATION.
根據經驗法則，關稅每增加 1%，通膨就會增加 0.1%。
1:12:30
CLICK OF THE RULE OF THUMB IS 0.1% INCREASE IN INFLATION, YOU
HAVE 1% INCREASE IN TARIFFS.
所以我們談論的是到年底通膨達到 4% 到 4.5%。
1:12:41
SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 4% TO
4.5% INFLATION BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
這一切意味著，除非增長急劇下滑，否則聯準會無法真正介入。
1:12:43
ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT THE FED CAN'T REALLY COME IN UNLESS
GROWTH PLUMMETS.
除非經濟增長急劇下滑，否則聯準會根本無法出手干預。
1:12:50
AND WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOME
SHRINKAGE IN GROWTH, I THINK THAT 1% OR ONE POINT 5% THAT
INVESTMENT BANKS WERE TALKING ABOUT BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT
我認為在宣布關稅之前，投資銀行所說的 1% 或 1.5% 的成長率，現在看來前景更加黯淡。
1:13:07
OF THE TARIFFS HAS MUCH BLEAKER
.
.
1:13:08
ALIX: DONALD TRUMP SAID TODAY, MY
POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.
艾利克斯：唐納·川普今天表示，我的政策永遠不會改變。
1:13:10
HE ALSO URGED JAY POWELL TO CUT
INTEREST RATES BEING IT'S A PERFECT TIME FOR THAT.
他還敦促傑伊·鮑爾降息，認為現在是絕佳的時機。
1:13:14
DO YOU THINK I WILL IS IN DANGER OF BEING DEMOTED FROM
FED CHAIR?
你認為鮑爾有被降職為聯準會主席的危險嗎？
1:13:19
IF SO IS THERE SOME, KIND OF
FED PUT AS A RESULT?
如果是這樣，是否因此會出現某種形式的聯準會 Put（聯準會擔保）？
1:13:23
RAGHURAM: IT WOULD BE A TREMENDOUS BLOW
TO THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IF THE FED CHAIRMAN IS REMOVED.
拉古拉姆：如果聯準會主席被撤換，對金融市場將是巨大的打擊。
1:13:29
ALL CREDIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FED IT WOULD VANISH IN A
MOMENT.
與聯準會相關的所有信譽將在瞬間消失。
1:13:34
PEOPLE ARE STILL CONFIDENT THAT
THE FED WILL CONTINUE AS IS, CHAIRMAN POWELL IS PROTECTED,
AND HE WILL TAKE THE RED POLICIES GOING FORWARD.
人們仍然相信聯準會將維持現狀，鮑爾主席受到保護，並且他將繼續執行紅色（指川普）的政策。
1:13:43
GIPHY IS REMOVED LOB THINK THERE WILL
BE -- IF HE IS REMOVED, THERE WILL BE MORE PANIC IN FINANCIAL
MARKETS AND I HOPE THAT DOESN'T
如果他被撤換，金融市場將會更加恐慌，我希望這不要發生。
1:13:50
HAPPEN. ROMAINE:
I'M CURIOUS, WHO YOU LOOK TO IN THIS ADMINISTRATION AND BEING
THE GUIDING LIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC POLICY AND FOR THAT
MATTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SORT OF RESCUE, FOR LACK OF A
BETTER PHRASE, FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW?
（找不到更好的詞彙來形容）。
1:14:05
RAGHURAM:
I THINK THIS ADMINISTRATION IS RUN BY ESSENTIALLY ONE PERSON
-- PRESIDENT
拉古拉姆：我認為這個政府基本上是由一個人在運作——那就是川普總統。
1:14:16
TRUMP. AND UNFORTUNATELY, WHATEVER ADVICE HE IS GETTING IS
REAFFIRMING HIS NATURAL INSTINCTS WHICH GOT PEOPLE HAVE
COMMENTED ON FROM THE 1980'S
不幸的是，他得到的任何建議都在強化他自 1980 年代以來就有的本能，
1:14:29
THAT HE BELIEVES TARIFFS ARE IN
FACT, GOOD.
他相信關稅事實上是有益的。
1:14:32
AND THAT IN THE MEDIUM TERM, IT WILL CREATE MORE JOBS
DOMESTICALLY.
並且在中期內，這將在國內創造更多就業機會。
1:14:36
I THINK MOST ECONOMISTS
INCLUDING ME, ARE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THEM CREATING JOBS IN THE
MEDIUM-TERM.
我認為大多數經濟學家，包括我在內，都對它們能在中期創造就業機會持懷疑態度。
1:14:43
BUT WE ARE ALMOST SURE THAT IN
THE SHORT-TERM, THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT OF PAIN.
但我們幾乎可以肯定，在短期內，將會經歷很多痛苦。
1:14:47
I THINK A PROFESSOR FROM HARVARD SAID IT RIGHT, CHIEF
ECONOMIC -- CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS TO
PRESIDENT BUSH -- HE SAID THE
我認為哈佛大學的一位教授說得很對，他是布希總統的經濟顧問委員會主席——他說這是為了
1:15:02
SHORT TERM PAIN IN ORDER TO GET
LONG-TERM PAIN.
獲得長期痛苦而付出的短期痛苦。
1:15:06
ROMAINE: IS THERE A SENSE OF THOUGH,
THAT LONG-TERM GAIN CAN BE DONE?
ROMAINE: 是否存在一種觀點認為，
1:15:10
WE HAD THE HEAD OF THE COUNCIL
OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MAKING THE CASE THAT LOOKS LIKE ONCE YOU
GET THROUGH THE BUDGET PROCESS AND TAX CUTS AND THESE OTHER
PROPOSALS OUT THERE, THAT
我們曾有經濟顧問委員會主席提出論點，指出一旦你
1:15:22
SOMEHOW THAT ENDS UP BEING A
SELF, THAT HE PROVIDES ENOUGH JUICE FOR THE ECONOMY TO ERASE
THE NEGATIVE IMPACT FROM TARIFFS.
不知何故最終會自我實現，他為經濟提供了足夠的動力，以消除
1:15:28
YOU ARE AN ECONOMIST, IS THAT HOW THAT WORKS?
你是一位經濟學家，事情是這樣運作的嗎？
1:15:32
RAGHURAM: CERTAINLY, SOME DE-REGULATION,
SOME LOWERED TAXES FOR BUSINESSES CAN HELP ELEVATE
SPIRITS.
RAGHURAM: 當然，一些解除管制、
1:15:42
BUT TARIFFS OF THIS KIND --
THIS IS REMEMBER, THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE
1909 -- THEY DO A LOT OF DAMAGE TO THE EXISTING SUPPLY
CHAINS.
但這種關稅——請記住，這是自
1:15:52
WE HAVE HAD GLOBAL SUPPLY
CHAINS LIKE NEVER BEFORE.
我們擁有前所未有的全球
1:15:54
THOSE ARE GOING TO BE IN
TROUBLE.
這些將會陷入
1:15:56
THE BELIEF IS THAT SOMEHOW WE
WILL GET JOBS BACK TO THE UNITED STATES OVERTIME, BUT
THINK ABOUT WHAT KINDS OF JOBS ARE GOING TO COME BACK.
人們相信，不知何故我們會隨著時間推移將就業機會帶回美國，但
1:16:04
THE JOBS WHERE YOU DON'T NEED MUCH LABOR, BECAUSE LABOR IS
COSTLY IN THE UNITED STATES.
那些不需要太多勞動力的工作，因為在美國
1:16:12
SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MUCH
MORE CAPITAL-INTENSIVE PRODUCTION.
所以我們談論的是更多
1:16:16
THAT'S NOT WHAT THE
ADMINISTRATION WANTS.
這並非政府
1:16:19
IT ONCE MORE JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL-EDUCATED AND MODERATELY
EDUCATED PEOPLE BECAUSE THOSE ARE IN THEIR SUPPORT BASE.
它需要更多受過高中教育和中等教育程度的人的工作機會，因為這些人是其
1:16:24
THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
這不會發生。
1:16:27
SO I'M NOT SURE WHAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT, WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MEDIUM TO
LONG-TERM GAIN.
所以我不確定當我們談論中長期收益時，
1:16:34
WE HAVE DISRUPTED THE SITUATION
WHERE WE HAD ONE OF THE STRONGEST U.S.
我們破壞了原本的局勢，
1:16:37
ECONOMIES RELATIVE TO OTHER INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES IN MEMORY.
經濟，相對於其他工業經濟體而言。
1:16:42
THE U.S. CAME OUT OF THE PANDEMIC MUCH
BETTER THAN EVERYBODY ELSE.
美國從疫情中恢復得比
1:16:48
AND NOW, WITH 4% UNEMPLOYMENT,
WE ARE TRYING AN ECONOMIC EXPERIMENT.
而現在，在失業率為 4% 的情況下，
1:16:51
TO DO WHAT?
為了做什麼？
1:16:52
TO GET LESS UNEMPLOYMENT THAN 4%?
要讓失業率低於4%？
1:16:54
THAT'S HARD.
那很難。
1:16:58
SCARLET: I THINK ABOUT HOWARD MARKS OF
OAK TREE, HE WAS ON BLOOMBERG EARLIER AND SAYING THAT THE U.S.
SCARLET：我想到了橡樹資本的霍華德·馬克斯，他早前上了彭博社，他說美國
1:17:04
HAS LONG BEEN A PLACE FOR GLOBAL INVESTORS WHO ARE
SEEKING RELIABLE RETURNS, THEY WANT PREDICTABLE OUTCOMES, A
STRONG RULE OF LAW.
長期以來一直是全球尋求可靠回報投資者的首選之地，他們想要可預測的結果以及強大的法治。
1:17:13
TO WHAT EXTENT DO THEY STILL
HAVE THAT IN THE U.S., OR ARE BOTH OF THOSE DIMINISHING?
他們在美國還能在多大程度上擁有這些？還是這兩者都在逐漸消退？
1:17:17
RAGHURAM: I THINK IT HAS BEEN A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POLICY CREATED RECENTLY.
RAGHURAM：我認為最近政策帶來了很多不確定性。
1:17:23
THAT'S WHY I SAID IF YOU MESS WITH THE FED, THAT MAKES IT
EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN FOR GLOBAL INVESTORS BECAUSE THAT BRINGS
IT INFLATION INTO PLAY IN A
這就是為什麼我說，如果你招惹聯準會，這會讓全球投資者面臨更大的不確定性，因為這會讓通膨問題浮現，
1:17:32
MUCH BIGGER WAY THAN IF YOU
LEFT THE FED ALONE.
其影響程度遠比你讓聯準會自行運作要大得多。
1:17:38
BUT THERE IS WORRY ACROSS THE
BOARD, SOME OF THE PEOPLE IN THE ADMINISTRATION ARE
SAYING, THAT MAY PLAY IN OUR FAVOR BECAUSE WE WILL GET LESS
FINANCIAL INVESTMENT INTO THE
但政府內部也有人擔憂，有些人認為這可能對我們有利，因為流入美國的金融投資將會減少，
1:17:50
UNITED STATES, THE DOLLAR WILL
DEPRECIATE, ALLOWING THE U.S.
美元將會貶值，從而讓美國
1:17:53
TO EXPORT MORE.
能夠出口更多商品。
1:17:54
BUT IT COMES AT A SERIOUS COST.
但這是有沉重代價的。
1:17:57
BECAUSE YOU DIMINISH THE
ATTRACTIVENESS OF U.S.
因為這會降低美國
1:17:58
SECURITIES.
證券的吸引力。
1:17:59
AND REMEMBER, THE U.S.
而且別忘了，美國
1:18:02
IS RUNNING A LARGE FISCAL
DEFICIT WHICH NEEDS ALL THE FUNDING IT CAN GET FROM ACROSS
THE WORLD.
正處於巨大的財政赤字中，需要從世界各地獲取所有能得到的資金。
1:18:07
ROMAINE: I WANT TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS
ABOUT THE NEW WORLD ORDER, IF YOU WILL, IF THAT IS INDEED
WHERE WE ARE GOING.
ROMAINE：我想聽聽你對新世界秩序的看法，如果可以的話，如果這確實是我們正在走向的方向。
1:18:14
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK
ABOUT THE LACK OF INFLUENCE THAT THE U.S.
關於美國影響力的缺失已經有許多討論，
1:18:19
IS PUTTING ITSELF IN THE POSITION IN, THE IDEA THAT
TRUST IS BEING ERODED, AND COUNTRIES WHETHER IT IS OUR
LEADING AMERICAN OR EUROPEAN
美國正把自己置於這種境地，信任正在被侵蝕，無論是我們的主要美國或歐洲夥伴，
1:18:30
PARTNERS WILL SEEK OUT MORE
STABILITY, WHETHER IT BECOMES CHAIN OR SOMEONE ELSE.
各國都將尋求更多的穩定性，無論是轉向中國還是其他國家。
1:18:33
DO YOU SEE THAT REALLY UNFOLDING , OR IS THE DOMINANCE
OF THIS U.S.
你真的認為這會發生嗎？還是說美國的主導地位
1:18:40
ECONOMY AND THE CLOUT THE
UNITED STATES HAS HAD GOING BACK TO THE 1940'S, IS THAT
GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO BE THE MAGNETIC THAT BRINGS
EVERYONEBACK?
以及美國自 1940 年代以來的影響力，就足以成為吸引所有人回歸的磁石？
1:18:48
RAGHURAM: WELL, IT CAN STILL CARRY ON FOR
SOME TIME.
拉古拉姆：嗯，這還能持續一段時間。
1:18:52
THE U.S. IS, AS HE SAID THE BIGGEST
ECONOMY, THE MOST FAVORITE ECONOMY IN TERMS OF CAPITAL
INFLOWS, ET CETERA.
美國是，正如他所說，最大的經濟體，也是資本流入等方面最受青睞的經濟體。
1:19:00
THAT WILL CONTINUE.
這將持續下去。
1:19:00
THERE AREN'T ALTERNATIVE PLACES SO READILY AVAILABLE.
目前沒有現成的替代選擇。
1:19:02
BUT I THINK THE SEARCH FOR ALTERNATIVES IS ON.
但我認為尋找替代方案已經開始了。
1:19:07
ONCE IT IS, PEOPLE WILL FIND ALTERNATIVES.
一旦開始，人們就會找到替代方案。
1:19:11
PERHAPS SKIN REGIONAL GROUPINGS.
也許是跳過區域性組織。
1:19:15
MAYBE AROUND CHINA, THE I
SUSPECT THE AUTOMATIC RUSH TO TURN THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN, IT
WILL BE A MORE MEASURED OK TO WE FIND IT HARD TO TRADE WITH
THE U.S., WHO ELSE CAN WE TRADE
WITH? SO OUR COUNTRY LIKE INDIA WILL LOOK TO ASEAN, TO JAPAN.
所以像印度這樣的國家，將會尋求與東協、日本合作。
1:19:30
IT MAY EVEN FIX ITS RELATIONSHIPS WITH CHINA AND
TRADE MORE WITH CHINA.
甚至可能修復與中國的關係，並與中國進行更多貿易。
1:19:37
EVERY COUNTRY IS THINKING THIS
WAY AT THIS POINT.
此時此刻，每個國家都在這樣思考。
1:19:39
OF COURSE, THE U.S.
當然，
1:19:41
IS STILL BIG AND STRONG.
美國仍然強大。
1:19:45
BUT IT IS ERODING IT/PROFESSOR,
ONLY A GREAT CONVERSATION, RAGHURAM
RAJAN, FINANCE PROFESSOR AT CHICAGO BOOTH SCHOOL OF
BUSINESS AND FORMER GOVERNOR AT
WE ALSO GOT A SETTLEMENT ON THE
VIX, CRUISING AROUND THE HIDES OF THE DAY, 45.31.
我們也得到了 VIX 的結算價，在當日高點附近徘徊，45.31。
1:20:09
SCARLET:
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE FUTURES.
史嘉蕾：我們會持續關注期貨。
1:20:12
MEANTIME, TARIFFS EXPLORING
CONCERNS AROUND AMERICAN MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, SUPPLY
CHAINS LASLEY FACTORY LABOR CRUNCH.
同時，關稅政策引發了對美國製造業產能、供應鏈以及勞動力短缺的擔憂。
1:20:17
JOINING US TO DISCUSS THIS IS PAT WEILER,'S COMPANY PRODUCES
EQUIPMENT FOR MAJOR OEM MANUFACTURERS.
今天我們邀請到 Pat Weiler 公司的代表，該公司為大型原始設備製造商（OEM）生產設備。
1:20:26
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY.
感謝您今天加入我們的節目。
1:20:29
OVER THE LAST DECADES OR SO,
YOU HAVE GROWN THE COMPANY INTO A MANUFACTURER OF MULTIPLE
PRODUCT LINES FOR THE PAVING INDUSTRY, IN PARTICULAR.
在過去的幾十年裡，您將公司發展成為一家為鋪路行業生產多條產品線的製造商。
1:20:38
WHAT DO THE TARIFFS FOR YOUR COSTS?
關稅對您的成本有何影響？
1:20:42
PAT:
CERTAINLY, POWER COSTS WILL BE INCREASING FOR ANYTHING THAT WE
IMPORT.
Pat：當然，對於我們進口的任何產品，能源成本都將上升。
1:20:50
WE ARE A HIGHLY VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED COMPANY.
我們是一家高度垂直整合的公司。
1:20:55
YOU DON'T DO A LOT OF IMPORTING
GOODS OR AT LARGE COMPONENTS.
我們不進口大量商品或大型零部件。
1:20:57
WE ARE PROBABLY BLESSED FOR
THAT.
在這方面，我們可能算是幸運的。
1:20:59
SO WE PROBABLY HAVE A LITTLE
BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE LITTLE PEOPLE.
所以相比小企業，我們可能稍微具備一點優勢。
1:21:03
WE WILL BE FINE.
我們沒問題。
1:21:05
WE WILL BE ABLE TO PASS ON OUR PRICE INCREASES DUE TO THE
TARIFFS.
我們能夠將因關稅而產生的成本上漲轉嫁到價格上。
1:21:09
IT IS JUST WHETHER OUR CUSTOMERS DECIDE NOT TO BUY BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED PRICES
.
問題在於我們的客戶是否會因為價格上漲而決定不再購買。
1:21:17
SCARLET: SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT
IS TIED TO THAT.
Scarlet：因此，當與此掛鉤時，存在著不確定性。
1:21:21
I'M CURIOUS, GIVEN THE
PRESIDENT'S STATED GOAL, TO BRING MANUFACTURING
BACK TO THE U.S., DO THESE TARIFFS ENCOURAGE YOU TO DO
THAT?
我很好奇，考慮到總統明確提出的將製造業帶回美國的目標，這些關稅是否鼓勵您這樣做？
1:21:31
WOULD YOU SET UP SMART MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY IN THE
U.S.
您是否會因為這些關稅而在美國建立智能製造能力？
1:21:33
BECAUSE OF THESE TARIFFS?
Pat：嗯，今天肯定不會，因為目前混亂太多，而混亂不利於在地下室進行太多操作。
1:21:35
PAT: WELL, CERTAINLY NOT TODAY
BECAUSE THERE IS TOO MUCH CHAOS, AND CHAOS DOESN'T LAND
TO VERY MUCH IN THE BASEMENT.
我們需要觀察局勢稍微平靜下來。
1:21:42
WE NEED TO WATCH THINGS SETTLE
DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
顯然，建立新工廠和增加產能需要資金，目前國內資金充裕，但建造這些建築需要時間。
1:21:46
OBVIOUSLY BUILDING NEW PLANTS
AND ADDING CAPACITY TAKES CASH, WHICH IS AVAILABLE,
THERE IS A LOT OF MONEY IN THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW, BUT IT TAKES
TIME TO BUILD THOSE BUILDINGS.
顯然，興建新廠房和擴充產能需要資金，目前國內資金充裕，但這需要時間才能落成。
1:21:57
AND YOU NEED TIME TO GET
EMPLOYEES.
而你需要時間來招聘員工。
1:22:01
WE ARE OK HIRING EMPLOYEES BUT
FOR MORE GROWTH, YOU NEED TO HAVE MORE PEOPLE AVAILABLE TO
FILL THOSE POSITIONS.
我們可以僱用員工，但要實現更多增長，你需要有更多人手來填補這些職位。
1:22:06
ROMAINE:
YOU HAVE BEEN IN THIS BUSINESS OVERALL FOR SEVERAL DECADES SO
YOU HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO SEE VARIOUS ECONOMIC CYCLES.
ROMAINE：你在這個行業已經有幾十年的經驗，所以你有機會見過各種經濟週期。
1:22:13
WHEN HE STARTED TO SEE SOFTNESS IN THE ECONOMY, AND THE
DECISIONS THAT YOUR POTENTIAL CLIENTS FOR YOUR CURRENT
BUSINESS WOULD MAKE HERE, DO
當他開始看到經濟放軟，以及你現有業務的潛在客戶在此時所做的決定時，
1:22:20
THEY EFFECTIVELY NOT MAKE THOSE
PURCHASES AT ALL, OR IS IT A DEFERMENT?
他們是完全不進行這些採購，還是延後執行？
1:22:24
MEANING, YOU LOSE OUT ON THAT SALE TODAY BUT MAYBE THEY ARE
TO YOU SIX MONTHS FROM NOW?
也就是說，你今天錯過了這筆銷售，但也許他們會在六個月後向你下單？
1:22:31
PAT: IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM ECONOMICS.
PAT：這完全取決於下游的經濟狀況。
1:22:34
IF THEY HAVE TO PAY MORE FOR
THE EQUIPMENT WHICH THAT IS FINE IF THEY CAN USE THE
EQUIPMENT, THEY WILL HAVE TO INCREASE THE VETTING THEY ARE
DOING TO A NEW HIGHWAY OR
AS LONG AS THEY GET THOSE INCREASED COSTS PASSED DOWN TO
THE ULTIMATE VENDOR THAT WILL BE FINE.
只要他們能把這些增加的成本轉嫁給最終的供應商，那就沒問題。
1:22:53
SO WILL THE PARKING LOT PEOPLE SPEND MORE MONEY TO GET A
PARKING LOT REPLACED?
那麼，停車場業者會花更多錢來更換停車場嗎？
1:23:02
WILL THE SUBDIVISIONS TO BE
THERE TO BUILD MORE ROADS?
分區開發商會在那裡修建更多道路嗎？
1:23:07
WILL THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY
SYSTEM FUND -- PUT MORE MONEY INTO BUILDING EFFECTIVELY LES
MILES, RIGHT, BECAUSE MILES COST MORE TO PUT IN SO IT TAKES
MORE MONEY -- IT DEPENDS
OF GOES BACK TO LATE
JANUARY, LATE FEBRUARY, ARE YOU SEEING ANY POTENTIAL SHIFT IN
CUSTOMER ACTIVITY THEN WORSE, IS THIS ALL UNFOLDING NOW?
896.
1:23:42
PAT:
THERE WAS A LOT OF CONCERN IN THE PAVING INDUSTRY ABOUT WHERE
WE WERE GOING WITH THE TARIFFS.
PAT：鋪路行業對關稅的走向有很多擔憂。
1:23:47
ULTIMATELY, IT IS WHAT THE
CONSUMER IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO SPEND.
最終，這取決於消費者能夠花多少錢。
1:23:55
IS HE GOING TO INVEST IN A NEW
PARKING LOT FOR HIS BUSINESS?
他會為自己的生意投資一個新的停車場嗎？
1:23:58
IS HE GOING TO REPAINT THE
PARKING LOT?
他會重新粉刷停車場嗎？
1:24:01
HE MAY WAIT TWO OR THREE YEARS
BEFORE HE DECIDES TO DO THAT.
他可能會等兩三年
1:24:05
I HAVE A FEW POTHOLES IN HIS
PARKING LOT AND HOPE HIS CUSTOMERS DO NOT MIND THEM.
我的停車場有些坑洞，
1:24:09
RIGHT? IT IS THE INSTABILITY WE ARE
ALL WORRIED ABOUT FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ULTIMATELY WRITE THE
CHECKS FOR THIS EQUIPMENT TO BE PUT TO WORK.
對吧？這正是我們都擔心的不穩定性，
1:24:16
ROMAINE:
ALL RIGHT, GREAT INSIGHT.
ROMAINE：
1:24:21
WE WISH YOU ALL THE BEST.
我們祝您一切順利。
1:24:21
WE
WILL CHECK BACK IN WITH YOU IN A FEW WEEKS TO SEE HOW THINGS
ARE GOING, PAT WEILER, PRESIDENT AND CEO OF WEILER,
WHICH HAS A BIG FOCUS ON PAVING.
我們會在幾週後再跟您聯繫，
1:24:34
WE TALK ABOUT THAT ECONOMIC
FALLOUT FROM WHAT THE U.S.
我們談到美國的行動
1:24:36
IS DOING JAY BRATT THERE IS
ALSO A FOLLOWER FROM WHAT OUR TRADING PARTNERS ARE DOING IN
TURN.
Jay Bratt，我們的貿易夥伴
1:24:43
CHINA ANNOUNCING A 34% LEVIED
ON IMPORTS STARTING APRIL 10, IT IS ALSO RESTRICTING EXPORTS
FROM CERTAIN TYPES OF RARE EARTHS.
中國宣布自4月10日起
1:24:52
ALSO HALTING IMPORTS OF POULTRY PRODUCTS FROM TWO AMERICAN
COMPANIES.
還有，停止從兩家美國公司
1:24:57
DANIEL TANNEBAUM JOINS US,
PARTNER AT THE LAW FIRM OLIVER WYMAN.
Daniel Tannebaum 加入我們的節目，
1:25:03
HE SAYS THERE IS NO GUARANTEE -- GREAT?
他說無法保證——很好？
1:25:10
THIS IS PART OF THE DEAL.
這是交易的一部分。
1:25:13
WE DO SOMETHING, THEY DO
SOMETHING, THEY HASH IT OUT, ARE WE PASSED THAT ALREADY?
我們做一件事，他們做一件事，
1:25:20
>> I DON'T KNOW IF WE ARE PAST
IT, BUT THEY PUT SEVEN MORE MINERALS ON A LIST OF THINGS
AMERICA CAN'T GET.
>> 我不確定我們是否已經度過，
1:25:28
MINERALS THAT ARE ALMOST THE
WORLD'S SOLO PROVIDER IN.
這些礦物幾乎是
1:25:30
SO THEY HAVE SOME LEVERAGE I
DON'T THINK THEY WOULD SO QUICKLY GIVE UP, ESPECIALLY AS
THE U.S.
所以他們握有某些籌碼，
1:25:35
IS TRYING TO SECURE ADDITIONAL
MINERAL RIGHTS AROUND THE WORLD.
正試圖在全球各地
1:25:39
THESE THINGS CANNOT BE SOURCED
FROM ANY OTHER PART OF THE PLANET AND THEY KNOW THAT.
這些資源無法
1:25:43
ROMAINE: FROM CHINA PERSPECTIVE, WHAT
WOULD THE NEGOTIATION ANGLE BE?
ROMAINE：從中國的角度來看，
1:25:47
GET RID OF THE TARIFFS AND GO
BACK TO NORMAL?
取消關稅並恢復正常？
1:25:50
>> THAT IS THE QUESTION.
>> 這就是問題所在。
1:25:51
THESE TARIFFS WITH CHINA BEGAN IN TRUMP 1.0.
這些對中國的關稅始於川普第一任期。
1:25:55
THEY LEARN FROM THE FIRST TRUMP TERM DURING THE LAST BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION, CREATING THE UNRELIABLE ENTITY LIST WHERE
THEY MADE IT HARDER FOR
他們在上一屆拜登政府期間，從川普第一任期學到了教訓，創建了不可靠實體清單，讓
1:26:04
AMERICAN BUSINESSES TO OPERATE,
CREATING THEIR OWN EXPORT CONTROLS.
美國企業更難營運，並建立了自己的出口管制。
1:26:06
I DON'T KNOW IT IF WE KNOW ENOUGH OF A STEADY STATE IF
THEY WILL PULL BACK, BUT WE HAVE NOT HAD A TRACK RECORD OF
GOING UP TO THE LINE ONLY TO
我不知道我們是否足夠了解穩定狀態，也不知道他們是否會退讓，但我們過去沒有先將局勢推到邊緣再
1:26:16
WALK BACK THINGS LIKE KICKING
OUT THE TIKTOK BAN FOR INSTANCE.
退讓的紀錄，例如推遲封殺TikTok。
1:26:20
THEY MADE THESE DECISIONS AND
HELD TO THEM FOR PERIODS OF TIME.
他們做出了這些決定，並在一段時間內堅持到底。
1:26:22
SCARLET:
IN THAT WAY THEY ARE PREDICTABLE IN THE WAY THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS NOT.
SCARLET:
1:26:26
>> THAT IS RIGHT.
>> 沒錯。
1:26:28
SCARLET:
HAVING SAID THAT, YOU POINTED OUT IN THE RUN-UP TO THE SECOND
TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT, CHINA, SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN SAID THEY
WOULD BAND TOGETHER ON AMERICAN
SCARLET:
1:26:35
TARIFFS. TALK US THROUGH THAT AND WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW AND WHAT IT
MIGHT LOOK LIKE AS TIME GOES ON.
關稅問題上聯合起來。請為我們分析一下，目前的狀況如何，未來隨著時間推移又會是什麼樣子。
1:26:43
>> WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IT WILL
LOOK LIKE IN REALITY, BUT THE FACT THEY MADE A JOINT
ANNOUNCEMENT FOR COUNTRIES THAT HAVE NOT GONE ON UNIVERSALLY
SAYS SOMETHING.
>> 我們不知道實際情況會如何，但這些從未結盟的國家發表了聯合聲明，這本身就說明了
1:26:52
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BRINGING
PEOPLE TOGETHER, BUT NOT IN A WAY THAT IS HELPFUL TO
AMERICANS AND AMERICAN CONSUMERS.
一些問題。川普總統正在把人們聚集在一起，但方式對
1:26:57
SCARLET:
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR HOW THE U.S.
美國人和美國消費者沒有幫助。
1:26:59
PROCEEDS? PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE'S NOT NEGOTIATING WITH ANY COUNTRY.
SCARLET:
1:27:05
IF WE LOOK AT VIETNAM AND THE SHARES OF LULULEMON AND NIKE
RISING BECAUSE HE HAD A GOOD CONVERSATION WITH VIETNAM'S
LEADER AND PEOPLE WERE THINKING
如果我們看看越南，以及Lululemon和Nike股價的上漲，因為他與越南
1:27:12
HE MIGHT BACKTRACK AREA WHERE
DOES THAT LEAVE US?
領導人進行了良好的對話，人們在想他可能會在該地區讓步，這讓我們處於什麼境地？
1:27:15
>> IT SEEMS LIKE A COUNTRY BY
COUNTRY STRATEGY AT THIS POINT.
>> 目前看來這是一種逐個國家的策略。
1:27:21
LOOKING AT THE TARIFFS FROM THE
ROSE GARDEN ANNOUNCEMENT, A LOT OF COUNTRIES ARE ON THAT LIST
ALLEGEDLY THAT ARE COMING INTO THE ADMINISTRATION TRYING TO
TALK DEALS.
從玫瑰園公告中的關稅來看，據稱清單上有許多國家正試圖與政府進行談判。
1:27:29
I DON'T THINK THERE ARE DEALS
BEING DONE IN BLOCK FORM.
我認為目前沒有以整批方式進行的交易。
1:27:32
IT REALLY IS A BILATERAL
DISCUSSION LIKE WHAT WE SAW WITH VIETNAM EARLIER.
這真的是一種雙邊討論，就像我們之前看到越南的案例一樣。
1:27:36
IT SIGNALS AN OPENNESS TO TRY AND NEGOTIATE IN SOME FORM OR
ANOTHER.
這表明了願意嘗試以某種形式進行談判的開放態度。
1:27:42
ROMAINE: I CHUCKLED WHEN I SAW THE
ALLIANCE OF SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, CHINA, AND I THOUGHT THAT IS
INTERESTING.
ROMAINE: 當我看到南韓、日本和中國結盟時，我笑了，我覺得這很有趣。
1:27:50
WE TALK ABOUT POLITICS AND
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS.
我們談論政治以及意想不到的盟友。
1:27:51
IT GETS TO THE IDEA OF
RESHAPING.
這觸及了重塑的概念。
1:27:54
WE TALKED ABOUT THIS BEFORE
ABOUT THE RESHAPING OF THE GLOBAL WORLD ORDER.
我們之前談過這個，關於全球秩序的重塑。
1:27:57
IS CHINA IN A POSITION TO BE THE FOCAL POINT OF THAT, OR IS
IT WISHFUL?
中國是否有能力成為這其中的焦點，還是只是一廂情願？
1:28:04
>> CHINA HAS BEEN SAYING IN A
NUMBER OF EVENTS WE ARE THE STABILIZING FORCE IN THE WORLD
OF -- IN AMERICA IS THE DISRUPTOR.
>> 中國在許多場合一直表示，他們是世界的穩定力量，而美國是破壞者。
1:28:09
THEY SAID THAT TO A GROUP OF CEOS IN CHINA LAST WEEK.
他們上週對中國的一群 CEO 說了這番話。
1:28:12
IT IS KIND OF HARD TO ARGUE WITH THAT LOGIC AT THIS POINT
GIVEN EVERYTHING WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS, HOW
MUCH CHINA REALLY STANDS TO
鑑於過去幾週我們所看到的一切，中國在這方面獲利多少，此時很難反駁這種邏輯。
1:28:21
BENEFIT ON THIS.
獲利。
1:28:22
THEY CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING TO EXPAND SOFT POWER IN THE VOID
OF USAID PULLBACK ACROSS THE WORLD, WE KNOW THERE'S CHINESE
EFFORTS IN MYANMAR IN THE WAKE
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THEY WILL BENEFIT, HOW MANY MORE
DEALS OR ALLIANCES MAY BE STRUCK.
目前尚不清楚他們將受益多少，或者會達成多少更多的交易或聯盟。
1:28:36
BUT THEY LOOK A LOT MORE STABLE THAN THE U.S.
但他們看起來比美國穩定得多。
1:28:40
DOES RIGHT NOW.
目前的狀況。
1:28:42
ROMAINE: YOU ALSO MENTIONED TIKTOK,
WHICH WE ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE A DEADLINE FOR SOME SORT OF SALE
TO TAKE PLACE.
ROMAINE: 您也提到了 TikTok，我們應該有一個關於出售的最後期限。
1:28:51
PRESIDENT TRUMP CAME OUT,
OFFERING THE 75 DAY EXTENSION.
川普總統出面，提供了 75 天的延期。
1:28:54
THERE IS A REPORT FROM THE
ASSOCIATED PRESS, PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH IT, THE CHINA
DEAL THAT THEY WERE READY TO MAKE.
美联社有一份報導，引述知情人士透露，中國已準備好進行交易。
1:28:58
AS SOON AS THE TARIFFS WERE ANNOUNCED, THEY CALLED
WASHINGTON AND SAID THIS IS NOT HAPPENING AS LONG AS THESE
TARIFFS ARE IN PLACE.
關稅一宣布，他們就立刻致電華盛頓表示，只要關稅還在，這筆交易就沒得談。
1:29:07
DOES TIKTOK BECOME A HOT POTATO
IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS?
在這當中，TikTok 是否會成為燙手山芋？
1:29:11
I DON'T KNOW HOW VALUABLE IT
IS, BUT PEOPLE SEEM TO BE THINKING IT COULD BE ONE OF THE
MAIN NEGOTIATING POINTS.
我不確定它的價值有多少，但外界似乎認為它可能成為主要的談判籌碼之一。
1:29:16
>> IT IS A COMPANY THAT IS
CERTAINLY TAKING AN OUTSIZE VIEW IN AMERICAN MEDIA AND
AMERICAN POLITICS OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS.
>> 這家公司在過去幾年，確實在美國媒體和政壇佔據了極大的份量。
1:29:23
I THINK IT IS ANOTHER ELEMENT OF NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S.
我認為這是美中談判的另一個要素。
1:29:28
AND CHINA.
與中國。
1:29:29
I DON'T THINK IT IS MORE
IMPORTANT, JUST MORE OF AN ANNOYANCE CHINA CAN REALLY
THROW FURTHER WORKS FOR THE U.S.
我認為這並非更為重要，僅是更添一重困擾，中國確實能為美國設下更多阻礙。
1:29:36
TRYING TO GET LEGISLATION WAS
PASSED ON A BIPARTISAN BASIS, ACTUALLY FINALIZED.
試圖推動立法在兩黨支持下通過，實際上已定案。
1:29:38
SCARLET:
YOU TALKED ABOUT HOW XI JINPING MADE THE POINT WE ARE STABLE,
YOU CAN PREDICT WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO GET WHEN YOU COME TO
CHINA TO AN AUDIENCE THAT
史嘉蕾：您談及習近平如何強調我們是穩定的，當您來到中國，對於能預期得到什麼，對一群
1:29:48
INCLUDED THE LIKES OF APPLE
CEO, WHICH RELIES A BIT ON MANUFACTURING INSIDE CHINA.
包括像蘋果執行長這樣的聽眾而言，他們多少依賴在中國境內的製造業務。
1:29:53
WHAT DOES THE CHINA RESPONSE MEAN FOR A COMPANY LIKE APPLE
THAT HAS REALLY PUT ITS BET ON THIS PART OF ASIA?
中國的回應對像蘋果這樣真正將賭注押在亞洲這片區域的公司意味著什麼？
1:30:03
>> AT THIS POINT IT IS JUST
WORDS.
>> 目前僅是空話。
1:30:06
IT IS ALSO A GOVERNMENT THAT
HELD IN PRISON FOR TWO YEARS CHINESE EMPLOYEES OF AN
AMERICAN BUSINESS IN CHINA.
這也是一個曾將一家美國企業的中國籍員工囚禁兩年的政府。
1:30:12
A LOT OF THIS IS WHAT DO THE
ACTIONS LOOK LIKE TO ACTUALLY PROVE THAT STABILITY AND
BUSINESS FRIENDLINESS GOING FORWARD?
許多關鍵在於，具體行動該如何展現，才能真正證明未來的穩定與營運環境友善？
1:30:17
I DON'T THINK WE HAVE
NECESSARILY SEEN THAT YET.
我認為我們尚未必見到這樣的行動。
1:30:20
SCARLET:
WHAT ARE YOUR CLIENTS SAYING TO YOU IN TERMS OF THE QUESTIONS
AND HOW YOU GO ABOUT ANSWERING THAT?
史嘉蕾：您的客戶向您提出哪些問題，您又是如何回應的？
1:30:26
THINGS ARE CHANGING ON A MINUTE BY MINUTE BASIS.
情勢每分鐘都在變化。
1:30:29
>> WE HAVE BUILT A TOOL THAT
MAPS SUPPLY CHAIN FOR INSTANCE, FROM A CRITICAL MINERAL
STANDPOINT, RAW MATERIAL
>> 我們已建立一套工具，例如繪製供應鏈地圖，從關鍵礦物的角度、原物料
1:30:41
STANDPOINT, CONCENTRATION RISK,
TARIFF EXPOSURES.
角度、集中度風險、關稅曝險。
1:30:43
WE HAVE A LOT OF COMPANY AND
PUTTING THEIR DATA TO UNDERSTAND WHERE WE ARE MOST
EXPOSED.
我們有許多公司利用其數據，以了解我們在哪裡曝險程度最高。
1:30:48
IT IS DIFFICULT TO CHART A PATH
FORWARD WHEN TARIFFS WERE APPLIED BROADLY.
在關稅被廣泛實施的情況下，要規劃前進路徑是很困難的。
1:30:51
AND THEY COULD CHANGE.
而且它們可能會改變。
1:30:53
LIKE WE SAW THE DISCUSSION WITH
VIETNAM.
就像我們看到與越南的討論一樣。
1:30:57
TARIFFS OR SIGNIFICANT ABOVE
40% THAT COULD BE PULLED BACK.
關稅或高於 40% 的稅率可能會被撤回。
1:30:59
IT IS HARD TO MAKE A DECISION.
很難做出決定。
1:31:01
WE ARE HAVING PEOPLE UNDERSTAND EXPOSURE RIGHT NOW ABOVE ALL
ELSE TO POTENTIALLY THINK OF WHERE MY A MOVE NEED TO BE MADE.
我們現在首要之務是讓大家了解曝險狀況，並潛在思考我們的行動需要在哪裡展開。
1:31:08
ROMAINE: YOU TALK ABOUT THE RARE EARTHS
AND SOME OF THOSE, NAMES I HAVE NEVER EVEN HEARD OF, LIKE
TURBIUM AND A FEW OTHERS.
Romaine：你談到了稀土，以及其中一些我甚至沒聽過的名稱，像是 Turbium 和其他幾種。
1:31:20
YOU HAVE THE MANUFACTURERS IN
THE U.S.
美國有製造商。
1:31:21
AND WHAT THEY HAVE ON THE
MINERALS.
以及他們在礦物方面的情況。
1:31:24
IF THEY DON'T GET THEM FROM
CHINA, AND THERE IS NO OTHER RELIABLE SOURCE TO GET THEM,
WHAT HAPPENS?
如果他們不從中國獲取，且沒有其他可靠的來源，會發生什麼事？
1:31:30
WE DON'T MAKE EV'S, BATTERIES,
THESE THINGS?
我們就無法製造電動車、電池這些東西了嗎？
1:31:34
>> THIS WILL GET REALLY
ENTERTAINING FOR SANCTIONS.
>> 這對制裁來說將變得非常有趣。
1:31:36
WE WILL END UP BUYING THEM FOR
COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA HAS DONE FROM THIRD COUNTRIES TO BUY
THINGS THAT THEY HAVE BEEN BANNED FROM GETTING.
我們最終會像俄羅斯那樣，從第三國購買那些被禁止取得的東西。
1:31:42
I COULD END UP HAPPENING.
這最終可能會發生。
1:31:44
IT DOES ADD COSTS.
這確實會增加成本。
1:31:45
IT IS ALSO ON THE WRONG SIDE OF ANOTHER COUNTRY'S LAW WHERE THE
U.S.
它也違反了另一個國家的法律，而美國
1:31:49
HAS TRY TO PUSH THEIR SANCTIONS
IN A WAY DOES NOT WANT CERTAIN COUNTRIES TO BUY THINGS THEY
HAVE.
試圖推動他們的制裁，以某種方式阻止某些國家購買他們
1:31:58
ROMAINE: I LOVE TALKING TO DANIEL, SO WE
WILL GO LONGER.
ROMAINE: 我喜歡和 DANIEL 聊天，所以我們
1:32:03
I WOULD LOVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT
THIS OVER GREENLAND, WHICH IS ABOUT NATURAL RESOURCES HERE.
我想請教您關於
1:32:08
SHOULD I NOT TAKE THAT SERIOUSLY?
難道我不該認真看待這件事嗎？
1:32:15
>> EVERYTHING HE SAID IN THE
CAMPAIGN, HE SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO TAKE OFF OF THE LIST ON.
>> 他在競選期間所說的一切，他似乎都正試圖從清單上移除。
1:32:18
I DO SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A CLOSER MILITARY ALLIANCE
BETWEEN GREENLAND AND THE U.S., THERE WAS MORE MILITARY
PRESENCE ON THE GROUND, NOT
我確實預期格陵蘭與美國之間會有更緊密的軍事同盟關係，地面上會有更多軍事存在，並非
1:32:26
WHEN U.S. BASE THAT THE PRESIDENT VISITED LAST WEEK.
美國基地，也就是總統上週造訪的地方。
1:32:30
I DON'T THINK AMERICA IS TAKING OVER.
我不認為美國正在接管。
1:32:33
PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO BE INVADED GENERALLY.
一般來說，人們不希望被入侵。
1:32:36
THAT IS KIND OF WHAT WE WERE THREATENING AT THIS POINT.
這大致就是我們目前所威脅的。
1:32:41
I DO THINK THERE WILL BE CLOSER MILITARY ALLIANCE, A DEAL WILL
BE STRUCK TO EXPEND MILITARY OPERATIONS ON THE GROUND.
我確實認為會有更緊密的軍事同盟，雙方將達成協議以擴大地面的軍事行動。
1:32:47
I DON'T THINK IT HAS THE STAR PINSTRIPES -- STARS & STRIPES
FLYING.
我不認為那裡有星條旗在飄揚。
1:32:52
SCARLET: PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO BE
INVADED, UNCLEAR HOW MANY WANT TO BE.
SCARLET: 人們不希望被入侵，不清楚有多少人希望被入侵。
1:33:00
PARTNER AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CRIME LEADER ALBERT WEINMAN.
合夥人兼全球金融犯罪主管 Albert Weinman。
1:33:03
JUST TO RECAP WHERE THINGS
STAND WITH MARKETS.
先簡要回顧一下市場的現況。
1:33:07
YOU MENTIONED FUTURES INDICATE
WE WILL STILL HEAD LOWER, BUT THERE IS A LONG WAY TO GO OVER
THIS WEEKEND.
您提到期貨指數顯示我們仍將走低，但本週末還有很長一段路要走。
1:33:13
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH S&P
500, DOWN 6%, RUNNING OFF ITS WORST WEEK SINCE 2020.
這是標普500指數的情況，下跌6%，創下自2020年以來最差的單週表現。
1:33:16
ROMAINE:
DRIFTING FRACTIONALLY LOWER, BUT THE DIP BUYERS ARE NOT
READY TO COME BACK YET.
ROMAINE: 微幅走低，但逢低買盤尚未準備回歸。
1:33:23
A LOT TO TRANSPIRE OVER THE
WEEKEND, WAITING TO SEE WHAT EUROPE MIGHT DO IN RETALIATION.
本週末還有許多事情會發生，正等待觀察歐洲可能採取何種報復行動。
1:33:27
HAVE NOT HEARD FROM CANADA OR MEXICO JUST YET.
尚未收到加拿大或墨西哥的消息。
1:33:29
THAT COULD BE A WILDCARD.
這可能是一張變數牌。
1:33:33
AND DO YOU WANT THAT EXPOSURE
UNTIL YOU GET SOME CLARITY ON IT?
在獲得明確資訊之前，您是否願意承擔此風險曝險？
1:33:34
SCARLET:
AND THE VIX BY THE WAY IS REVISITING HIGHS ON THE SESSION.
SCARLET: 順帶一提，VIX指數正在重新探向當日高點。
1:33:43
45.31. EARLIER IT HIT 5.61.
45.31。早些時候曾觸及5.61。
1:33:48
ROMAINE:
WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL BRIGHT SPOTS, THE ATF
RISING IN THEORY WITH RATES DROPPING THAT EVERYONE WILL GO
AND BUY A HOME.
ROMAINE:
1:33:57
IF THEY ARE NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT.
如果他們沒有感到
1:33:58
HE GETS TO THE BROADER QUESTION
THAT IF WE SEE DIP BUYING COME BACK ON MONDAY, WHERE IS IT
GOING TO BE?
他提出了一個更廣泛的問題，
1:34:07
BIG CAP TECH, THE BIG CASH
GENERATORS, CYCLICAL STOCKS?
大型科技股、大現金流生成器，還是景氣循環股？
1:34:10
I'M CURIOUS TO WHERE YOU THINK
PEOPLE'S HEADS WOULD BE?
我很好奇你認為大家的
1:34:12
SCARLET: DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS?
SCARLET: 高股息股票？
1:34:16
SAFETY. IF COMPANIES ARE LOOKING TO
CONSERVE CASH, THEY WOULD STOP THE BUYBACKS BEFORE THEY MAKE
CHANGES.
安全性。如果公司打算
1:34:23
ROMAINE: WE SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE, WILL HAVE SPECIAL COVERAGE ON SUNDAY
EVENING STARTING AT 5:00 P.M.
ROMAINE: 我們也應該指出，
1:34:30
NEW YORK TIME TO SET YOU UP FOR
WHAT MAY ACTUALLY HAPPEN WHEN GLOBAL MARKETS OPEN FROM ASIA
TO EUROPE AND BACK IN THE U.S.
幫助你為全球市場從亞洲到歐洲，再到美國開盤時
1:34:36
YOU'RE WATCHING THE CLOSE ON
BLOOMBERG.
您正在收看彭博社的收盤報導。
1:34:53
SCARLET:
THE NASDAQ 100 ENTERING A BEAR MARKET, MEANING IT IS DOWN MORE
THAN 20% FROM ITS RECORD HIGH.
SCARLET:
1:35:01
JOINING US IS DAN NILES,
FOUNDER AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT NILES INVESTMENT TO TALK ALL
THINGS TECH.
加入我們的是 Dan Niles，
1:35:06
AT THE START OF THE YEAR WHEN
YOU ARE LOOKING AT YOUR TOP FIVE PICKS, YOU LEAD WITH CASH,
WHICH TELLS US EVERY THING WE NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WHERE YOU
STOOD AND WHERE YOUR HEAD WAS.
今年年初當你
1:35:15
HOW MUCH FURTHER DO WE HAVE TO
GO IN THIS SLIDE?
我們在這波跌勢中還有多少
1:35:20
I'M GUESSING THERE IS MORE TO
COME GIVEN THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
我猜還有更多跌幅即將到來，因為存在如此多的
1:35:22
DO YOU -- NON-CASH?
你——非現金部位？
1:35:23
YOU CANNOT LEVER UP ON CASH, CAN YOU?
你無法用現金槓桿操作，對吧？
1:35:29
>> YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER CASH AT
THE START OF THE YEAR WAS YIELDING 4% IN THE MONEY MARKET
FUND.
>> 你必須記住，今年年初
1:35:36
MY VIEW WAS COMING INTO THE
YEAR, VALUATIONS WERE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH BECAUSE YOU HAD A
TRAILING S&P 500 PE OF 25 TIMES.
我當時的看法是，進入
1:35:48
IF YOU LOOK AT IT OVER HISTORY
WHEN YOU HAD INFLATION OVER 2.523%, AND IT IS HIGHER THAN
THAT.
如果你回顧歷史，當通膨超過 2.523% 時——而現在通膨高於
1:35:53
I WAS TRYING TO BE OPTIMISTIC.
我當時試著保持樂觀。
1:35:55
THE AVERAGE MULTIPLE IS 19 TIMES, NOT 25.
平均倍數是 19 倍，不是 25 倍。
1:35:59
IF YOU'RE IN A STAGFLATION SCENARIO, YOU'RE TALKING
MULTIPLES THAT SHOULD BE IN THE MIDTEENS.
如果你身處停滯性通膨的情境，你談論的倍數應該在十幾倍的中段。
1:36:05
EVEN WITH THE DROP TODAY, THE MULTIPLES DOWN TO 21 TIMES.
即使今天下跌，倍數也降至 21 倍。
1:36:15
SO THERE IS STILL MORE DOWNSIDE
POTENTIAL IN THE MARKET IF YOU ARE REPRICING RISK TO A GOOD
LEVEL.
所以如果你將風險重新定價到一個良好的水準，市場仍有更多下跌潛力。
1:36:21
THE THING PEOPLE FORGET IS THE
S&P 500 EARNINGS WERE COMING DOWN FROM THE MIDDLE OF LAST
YEAR.
人們忘記的是，標普 500 指數的獲利從去年年中就開始下滑。
1:36:29
PEOPLE IGNORED IT BECAUSE THE
FED WAS CUTTING RATES AND THE STOCKS ARE GOING UP, SO
EVERYBODY IS VERY BULLISH.
人們忽略了這一點，因為聯準會正在降息，股價持續上漲，所以大家都非常樂觀。
1:36:39
UNDERNEATH IT ALL, AMAZON,
MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, WHEN THEY REPORTED THEIR JUNE QUARTERS,
WERE CUTTING FOR THE SEPTEMBER QUARTER.
在這些現象之下，亞馬遜、微軟、谷歌在公佈六月季度財報時，都對九月季度做出了下修。
1:36:47
YOU HAD ALREADY STARTED THAT DROP, JUST WHY IT CAME INTO THE
YEAR NEGATIVE.
下滑趨勢早已開始，這就是為什麼今年會以負成長開局。
1:36:49
ISSUES WITH EARNINGS THAT WERE
ALREADY GOING ON AND THE TARIFFS BROUGHT SOME OF THAT TO
THE FOREFRONT IN THE HIGH MULTIPLES YOU HAVE.
獲利方面早已存在的問題，加上關稅，將這些問題推上檯面，並反映在你所看到的高倍數上。
1:36:56
SCARLET:
IS THERE A BASE CASE FOR RECESSION?
史嘉蕾：有關於經濟衰退的基本假設嗎？
1:36:59
YOU MENTIONED STAGFLATION, THAT WAS THE ASSUMPTION LAST WEEK.
你提到了停滯性通膨，那是上週的假設。
1:37:02
HAVE YOU SWITCHED TO RECESSION AS YOUR BASE CASE?
你是否已轉向將經濟衰退作為基本假設？
1:37:07
>> THAT IS GETTING TESTED
MINUTE BY MINUTE.
>> 這正在每一分鐘接受考驗。
1:37:12
IT WASN'T, BUT I SAW TODAY THE
TIKTOK DEAL GETTING PUSHED OUT FOR 75 DAYS.
之前沒有，但我今天看到 TikTok 的交易被推遲了 75 天。
1:37:17
MY HOPE HAD BEEN OVER THE WEEKEND YOU HAD ONE OF TWO
THINGS HAPPEN.
我原本希望在週末會發生兩件事中的一件。
1:37:22
THE TIKTOK DEAL HAPPENS IN THE
U.S.
TikTok 交易在美國達成。
1:37:25
CUTS THE TARIFFS ON CHINA AND
CHINA CUTS THE TARIFFS ON THE U.S.
美國調降對中國的關稅，中國也調降對美國的關稅。
1:37:27
BUT IT SEEMS LIKE MAYBE CHINA SCUTTLED THE DEAL.
但看起來可能是中國破壞了這筆交易。
1:37:32
THE SECOND THING IS I'M HOPEFUL YOU CAN GET AN INTEL-TSMC JOINT
VENTURE.
第二件事是我希望英特爾和台積電能達成合資。
1:37:37
IN WHICH CASE THE U.S.
在哪種情況下美國
1:37:38
CAN DROP TARIFFS ON TAIWAN,
WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT TO US IN TERMS OF SEMICONDUCTORS AND
OTHER THINGS THAT COME OUT OF THERE.
可以對台灣降低關稅，
1:37:45
SEMICONDUCTORS ON THE EXCLUDED LIST, BUT OTHER THINGS AROUND
THAT TO DE-ESCALATE THIS.
半導體在排除清單上，但周邊其他產品
1:37:53
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS
GOING IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.
目前看來局勢正朝
1:37:57
THAT CONCERNS ME.
這令我擔憂。
1:37:58
THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO VALUATION SUPPORT.
市場完全缺乏估值支撐。
1:38:00
PEOPLE LIKE TO SAY STOCKS ARE CHEAP, BUT THAT IS RIDICULOUS.
人們喜歡說股票很便宜，但這很荒謬。
1:38:03
THEY ARE CHEAP RELATIVE TO WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER.
相比之前的高點確實便宜。
1:38:06
THAT DOES NOT MAKE THEM CHEAP ON A RELATIVE BASIS.
但這不代表它們在相對基礎上真的便宜。
1:38:10
IT IS ALSO WIFE YOU LOOK OUTSIDE THE U.S., THE GLOBAL
STOCK MARKET EXCLUDING THE U.S.
若放眼美國以外，全球
1:38:16
IS UP 2% YEAR TO DATE.
今年迄今上漲2%。
1:38:19
THAT TELLS YOU THERE IS SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON BESIDES
TARIFFS.
這說明除了關稅之外
1:38:25
THE EMERGING-MARKET ETF IS ONLY
DOWN 3%.
新興市場ETF僅
1:38:27
THE EURO ZONE ETF IS UP 5% YEAR
TO DATE.
歐元區ETF今年迄今
1:38:30
THE MEXICO ETF IS UP 7% YEAR-TO-DATE.
墨西哥ETF今年迄今上漲7%。
1:38:33
IF IT WAS REALLY ALL ABOUT TARIFFS, MEXICO SHOULD BE
GETTING KILLED, EUROPE SHOULD BE GETTING KILLED, EMERGING
MARKETS SHOULD BE GETTING
如果真的全是關稅的問題，墨西哥應該
1:38:42
KILLED. IT IS ACTUALLY THE U.S.
慘重。但實際上是美國
1:38:44
STOCK MARKET DOWN THE MOST.
股市跌幅最大。
1:38:46
IF YOU SWITCH TO TECH STOCKS, K
WEBB, THE INTERNET ETF FOR CHINA, IS UP 7% YEAR-TO-DATE.
如果切換到科技股，KWEB（中國互聯網ETF）今年迄今上漲7%。
1:38:52
THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN ARE DOWN 24.
科技七巨頭下跌24%。
1:38:54
OBVIOUSLY VALUATIONS, EARNINGS GROWTH, THAT HAS SOMETHING TO
DO WITH IT AS WELL.
顯然，估值和盈利增長也與此有關。
1:38:59
NOT JUST TARIFFS.
不僅僅是關稅。
1:39:01
ROMAINE:
IT IS INTERESTING LOOKING AT THOSE NUMBERS ON A WEEKLY
BASIS, EVEN THOUGH EVERYTHING WAS DOWN, YOU CAN SEE THE
OUTPERFORMANCE ON A RELATIVE
ROMAINE：每週觀察這些數據很有趣，儘管整體都在下跌，但你可以看到海外相對表現優於美國。
1:39:10
BASIS OVERSEAS, OUTSIDE THE U.S.
嚴格來說，是在美國以外的地區。
1:39:14
IF YOU WILL.
如果你願意這樣理解的話。
1:39:15
THE QUESTION IS DO YOU SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE INVESTORS WOULD RUSH BACK INTO U.S.
問題在於，你是否預見投資者會湧回美國股市的情景？
1:39:19
EQUITIES? ONE REASON I ASK IS A LOT OF THE VOLATILITY WE SAW INTRADAY
IN RETAIL AND APPAREL COMPANIES AFTER WE SAW THOSE HEADLINES
THAT POTENTIAL THERE WERE
I'M NOT SURE PEOPLE WILL RUSH BACK IN AND DO THE FOAM OH, BY
THE DIP.
我不確定人們是否會湧回來，並採取「逢低買入」的策略。
1:40:28
THE FED ALSO ON THE MARGIN HAVE
A DUAL MANDATE.
聯準會在邊際上也有雙重使命。
1:40:31
THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT
INFLATION AND WHAT THE TARIFFS COULD CAUSE.
它們擔心通膨以及關稅可能造成的後果。
1:40:35
GO BACK TO EARLY FEBRUARY, WE WERE WORRIED THE FED MIGHT NEED
TO RAISE RATES.
回到二月初，我們還擔心聯準會可能需要升息。
1:40:39
ENSURE THAT IS ANCIENT HISTORY
FOR SOME READ THAT IS HOW BAD THINGS WERE.
確保那已是遙遠的歷史
1:40:43
THE FED IS KIND OF IN A TOUGH SPOT.
聯準會目前處境有些艱難。
1:40:46
WORRIED ABOUT GROWTH ON ONE HAND, BUT THE SCENARIO THEY
ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY WANT TO AVOID IS 1970'S STYLE
STAGFLATION.
一方面擔心經濟成長，但他們絕對要避免的是 1970 年代那種
1:40:57
THAT IS WHEN THE MARKET GOES
DOWN ANOTHER 35% FROM HERE TO GET TO A MULTIPLE.
那意味著市場從這裡再下跌 35%，才能達到某個估值倍數。
1:41:01
THAT IS THE SCENARIO THEY'VE GOT TO AVOID AT ALL COSTS.
這是他們必須不惜一切代價避免的情境。
1:41:05
ROMAINE: IT LOOKS LIKE THAT SCENARIO
MIGHT BE STARTING TO UNFOLD.
羅曼：看來這種情境
1:41:10
WE ARE HEADING INTO EARNINGS
SEASON, ANOTHER TWO OR THREE WEEKS BEFORE WE SEE THE RESULTS
OUT OF THE TECH COMPANIES.
我們即將進入財報季，
1:41:16
I THINK SOME OF THE CONCERN WE
HAVE SEEN, YOU MAKE A GOOD POINT ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS NOT
NECESSARILY BEING SUPPORTIVE OF RUSHING BACK IN, THAT IS
BECAUSE WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN AN
我認為我們看到的一些擔憂，
1:41:25
UPDATE FROM THESE COMPANIES
THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM
THE TARIFFS .
這些公司的最新資訊，
1:41:31
ASSUMING THEY ARE WILLING TO
DELIVER SOME SORT OF OUTLOOK.
假設他們願意提供某種展望。
1:41:35
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE OUTLOOK
IS GOING TO BE?
你認為展望會是什麼？
1:41:40
>> AS I SAID EARLIER, SIX OF
THE SEVEN OF THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN ARE GUIDED BELOW THE
STREET FOR THE Q1 PERIOD WHEN THEY REPORTED 90 DAYS AGO.
>> 如我先前所說，七巨頭中有六家
1:41:50
SO THINGS ALREADY WERE PROBLEMATIC, WHICH IS WHY I
CAME INTO THE YEAR WITH NO MAGNIFICENT SEVEN IN MY TOP
FIVE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
所以情況本來就有問題，這也是為什麼
1:41:59
SEVERAL YEARS.
多年來第一次。
1:42:00
CLEARLY WHAT HAS JUST HAPPENED WILL MAKE THAT SITUATION WORSE.
很明顯，剛發生的事會讓情況更糟。
1:42:03
LUCKILY FOR CERTAIN COMPANIES THAT ARE SERVICES BASED, LIKE
GOOGLE AND META, THEY DON'T GET A DIRECT IMPACT.
幸運的是，對於某些服務導向的公司，如
1:42:12
UNFORTUNATELY, CAR COMPANIES ARE ONE OF THE BIGGEST
ADVERTISERS.
不幸的是，汽車公司是最大的
1:42:17
WHEN YOU HAVE CONSUMER PACKAGE
GOODS, IF THEY ARE FEELING LESS CERTAIN ABOUT WHAT TO DO, THEY
WILL CUT BACK ON SPENDING.
當消費品公司
1:42:23
APPLE OBVIOUSLY HAS GOTTEN
CRUSHED BECAUSE THEY ARE IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF SOME OF THE
TARIFFS.
顯然 Apple 受到重創，
1:42:28
THEY WERE NOT EXEMPTED, WHICH
WAY THE -- WERE THE FIRST TRUMP TERM.
它們沒有被豁免，而
1:42:31
RIGHT NOW, IT IS EARLY TO GO
BOTTOM FISHING FOR ONE SIMPLE REASON.
現在進場撈底還太早，原因很簡單。
1:42:37
IF YOU LOOK AT THE COMPANIES THAT HAVE REPORTED RECENTLY
THAT ARE OFF QUARTER COMPANIES, FEDEX, NIKE, MICRON, THEY ALL
HAD LOW EXPECTATIONS.
如果你看看最近公布財報的公司，
1:42:50
THEY ALL REPORTED AND THE
STOCKS GOT CRUSHED ANYWAY.
但它們公布財報後，
1:42:54
YESTERDAY, RESTORATION HARDWARE
IS AN EXAMPLE OF LOW EXPECTATIONS IN THE STOCK WENT
DOWN 40% AND WENT DOWN MORE TODAY.
昨天，Restoration Hardware 就是低預期的例子，股價下跌 40%，今天還在跌。
1:43:02
UNTIL YOU SEE NUMBERS GETTING CUT AND THE STOCKS NOT GETTING
CRUSHED OFF OF IT, I WOULD BE CAREFUL ABOUT BOTTOM FISHING.
在你看到財數字被下修、但股價沒有因此重挫之前，
1:43:09
AS I SAID EARLIER, THE OVERALL MARKET MULTIPLE IS STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH.
如我之前所說，整體市場的本益比仍然相對偏高。
1:43:14
ROMAINE: WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE.
羅曼：我們必須在此告一段落。
1:43:16
DAN NILES, WE GET THE TECH EARNINGS IN ABOUT TWO IT A
HALF, THREE WEEKS.
Dan Niles，大約再兩到三週，我們就會看到科技股財報。
1:43:20
EVEN LESS TIME THAN THAT, WE
WILL START TO GET EARNINGS OUT OF THE BIG BANKS.
時間更短，我們就會看到大型銀行的財報。
1:43:25
WE WILL HEAR FROM WELLS FARGO, JP MORGAN, MORGAN STANLEY, AND
A FEW OTHERS ON A DAY WHERE THE S&P 500 FINANCIAL INDEX HAD ITS
WORST DAY GOING BACK TO THE
我們將聽到富國銀行、摩根大通、摩根士丹利，
1:43:38
ONSET OF THE PANDEMIC IN 2020.
2020 年疫情爆發以來最慘的一天。
1:43:40
GERARD CASSIDY JOINS US AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS.
Gerard Cassidy 來自 RBC 資本市場。
1:43:44
I'M CURIOUS AS TO WHETHER THIS EARNINGS SEASON WILL BE A TALE
BETWEEN TWO CITIES.
我很好奇，本財報季是否會呈現兩樣情。
1:43:50
IF YOU HAVE A HUGE TRADING
BUSINESS, I WOULD ASSUME YOU ARE KNOCKING IT OUT OF THE PARK.
如果你有龐大的交易業務，
1:43:55
YOU HAVE BIG INVESTMENT BANKING AND DEAL MAKING BUSINESS, I
ASSUME THINGS ARE DORMANT ON THAT SIDE.
如果你有大型的投資銀行和併購業務，
1:43:59
>> YOU SAID IT WELL.
>> 你說得沒錯。
1:44:01
TRACING RESULTS LIKELY TO BE VERY STRONG.
交易成果可能非常強勁。
1:44:04
ESPECIALLY IN THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH ALL OF THE
VOLATILITY.
尤其是在波動劇烈的三月份。
1:44:10
I THINK WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO
FIND IS NOT ONLY THE INVESTMENT BANKS WHO HAVE THOSE LINES OF
BUSINESSES, THE COMMERCIAL BANKS.
我認為你將會發現，
1:44:16
WHAT WILL THEY BE SAYING ABOUT THE OUTLOOK.
它們對前景會有什麼看法。
1:44:19
THE FOCUS FOR MOST INVESTORS WILL BE NOT NECESSARILY ON THE
RESULTS THIS QUARTER, BECAUSE THE QUARTER HAS CHANGED SO MUCH.
大多數投資者的焦點未必在於
1:44:30
OR WHAT THEIR CUSTOMERS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE REST OF THE
YEAR.
或他們的客戶對今年剩餘時間的看法。
1:44:34
I THINK IT WILL BE THE GUIDANCE
QUESTIONS, MOST OF THE FOCUS ON THE FIRST QUARTER CALLS.
我認為焦點將在於財測問題，
1:44:38
SCARLET: ABSOLUTELY.
SCARLET: 絕對是的。
1:44:40
AND BANKS, THE MOST COSTLY PART
OF THEIR BUSINESS IS THEIR TALENT, THE HEADCOUNT.
而對銀行來說，其業務中成本最高的部分是他們的人才，也就是人力編制。
1:44:46
BLOOMBERG IS REPORTING INSIDE JP MORGAN, GOLDMAN SACHS, AND
BANK OF AMERICA, THE EXECUTIVES ARE CONSIDERING REVISING DOWN
INTERNAL PROJECTIONS FOR THEIR
Bloomberg 報導，在摩根大通、高盛和
1:44:54
ADVISORY BUSINESSES BECAUSE OF
THE M&A EXPLOSION SO MANY EXPECTED AFTER TRUMP WAS
ELECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED.
顧問業務，因為
1:44:59
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR WHEN
IT COMES TO HEADCOUNT COSTS AND THE RATCHETING DOWN OF THOSE
EXPENSES?
當談到人力成本以及這些支出的
1:45:09
>> IT IS INTERESTING.
>> 這很有趣。
1:45:12
AS YOU POINT OUT, THE ADVISORY BUSINESS AND THE ECM BUSINESS,
THE IPO BUSINESS, HAVE GONE OFF TO A VERY SLOW START.
如您所指出的，顧問業務、ECM（股權資本市場）業務，
1:45:20
OF COURSE, WE'VE HAD THE ISSUE WITH THE TARIFFS THAT IS ONLY
COMPOUNDED THOSE ISSUES.
當然，我們還面臨關稅問題，這只會讓情況雪上加霜。
1:45:27
SO THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO
LOWER EXPENSES THROUGH HEADCOUNT REDUCTION.
因此，可能有必要透過裁員來降低支出。
1:45:32
THAT IS THE OBVIOUS EXPENSE OF AN INVESTMENT BANK.
這是投資銀行顯而易見的支出。
1:45:35
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE.
我們得再觀察。
1:45:36
BUT THEY HAVE TO BE CAREFUL.
但他們必須謹慎行事。
1:45:38
THIS CAN BE A TEMPORARY LEVEL.
這可能只是暫時性的水準。
1:45:39
WE MIGHT SEE M&A ACTIVITY PICK
UP IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.
我們可能會看到併購活動在下半年回升。
1:45:43
YOU DON'T WANT TO CUT YOUR NOSE DESPITE YOUR FACE.
你不能因小失大（直譯：你不想割掉鼻子來毀了臉）。
1:45:47
BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT IS LIKELY TO BE DISCUSSED ON THEIR
EARNINGS CALLS AS A WAY OF MANAGING EXPENSE GROWTH OVER
THE NEAR-TERM.
但這可能會在他們的財報電話會議上被討論，作為管理近期支出成長的一種方式。
1:45:57
ROMAINE: OF THE COMPANIES IN YOUR
COVERAGE, WHICH ONES LOOK THE STRONGEST TO YOU EVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT WE ARE IN RIGHT NOW?
羅曼：在您覆蓋的公司中，即便身處當前環境，哪些公司看起來最強勁？
1:46:06
>> WHEN WE LOOK AT THE BANKS,
YOU HAVE TO LOOK THE REGIONAL BANKS.
>> 當我們觀察銀行業時，
1:46:09
THEY ARE VERY WELL-CAPITALIZED.
它們的資本非常充足。
1:46:12
THEY HAVE LIMITED OVERSEAS
BUSINESS.
它們的海外業務有限。
1:46:16
AS A RESULT, THEY SHOULD DO OK
IN THIS QUARTER.
因此，它們在本季度的表現應該尚可。
1:46:18
OF COURSE IT IS ABOUT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN TO THE ECONOMY.
當然，這一切都取決於經濟的走向。
1:46:23
WE ALL EXPECT IT TO SLOW DOWN
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DUE TO THESE TARIFFS.
我們都預期經濟會因這些關稅而放緩。
1:46:25
BUT THE CREDIT QUALITY FOR THESE BANKS ARE ALL VERY STRONG.
但這些銀行的信用品質都非常強勁。
1:46:31
WHEN YOU LOOK AT NAMES LIKE FIFTH THIRD OR REGIONS, PNC, M
AND TWO, ALL OF THEM ARE VERY STRONG.
無論是 Fifth Third、Regions、PNC 或 M&T，它們都非常強勁。
1:46:41
YOU LOOK AT WELLS FARGO, BANK OF AMERICA, J.P.
再看看富國銀行（Wells Fargo）、美國銀行（Bank of America）、摩根大通（J.P. Morgan），
1:46:45
MORGAN, VERY STRONG FROM A CREDIT QUALITY, LIQUIDITY,
CAPITAL STANDPOINT.
從信用品質、流動性及資本狀況來看，都非常強勁。
1:46:51
BUT UNTIL WE GET THE WASHOUT IN
THE SELLING, IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE STOCKS OVER THE
NEAR-TERM.
但在賣壓完全釋放之前，短期內股市走勢將會相當艱難。
1:46:57
SCARLET: CREDIT QUALITY IS GOOD,
SOMETHING THE BANKS CAN CONTROL, WHAT ABOUT DEMAND FOR
LOANS?
SCARLET：信用品質是好的，這是銀行可以控制的部分，但貸款需求呢？
1:47:01
WHAT DO YOU HEAR FROM THE BANKS?
您從銀行那裡聽到了什麼消息？
1:47:04
>> IT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION.
>> 這是一個非常好的問題。
1:47:07
LOAN DEMAND IS SOFT.
貸款需求疲軟。
1:47:09
WE JUST REPORTED THAT HA DATA.
我們剛發布了相關數據。
1:47:13
LOAN GROWTH ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS THIS WEEK WAS UP OVER 3%
FOR THE INDUSTRY.
本週整體業界的年增貸款成長率超過 3%。
1:47:19
WE ANTICIPATE THE BANKS ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO SUGGEST MANY OF THEIR CORPORATE AND
COMMERCIAL COMFORTERS -- CUSTOMERS HAVE PUT LOAN
BORROWING DEMANDS ON HOLD UNTIL
我們預期銀行可能會表示，許多企業和商業客戶——
1:47:27
THEY CAN FIGURE OUT HOW THEY
ARE GOING TO MANEUVER AND NEVER GRAY THROUGH THE NEW TARIFFS
SCENARIO THAT HAS COME OUT THIS WEEK.
直到他們能弄清楚如何應對本週出爐的新關稅情境。
1:47:34
LOAN GROWTH, WHICH WE THOUGHT AT THE START OF THE YEAR WAS
GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE NORTH OF 5%, WILL COME IN CLOSER TO 2%
OR 3% AS THE ECONOMY SLOWS DOWN
我們原本預期今年初的貸款成長率會超過 5%，但隨著經濟放緩，
1:47:44
IN 2025. SCARLET:
SOMETHING WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR WHEN THE BANKS BEGIN
REPORTING.
在 2025 年。史嘉蕾：這是我們在銀行開始公布財報時會關注的重點。
1:47:52
ALWAYS APPRECIATE YOU JOINING
US.
非常感謝您加入我們。
1:47:54
GERARD CASSIDY, HEAD OF STRATEGY AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS.
RBC 資本市場策略長傑瑞德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。
1:47:58
ROMAINE: ONE OF THE GREAT VOICES WE'VE
HAD ON THE PROGRAM AS THE TURMOIL AND FALLOUT FROM
TRUMP'S TARIFFS REVERBERATE
羅曼：這是我們節目中重量級的來賓之一，正值川普關稅引發的動盪與餘波震盪全球之際。
1:48:04
AROUND THE WORLD.
震盪全球。
1:48:05
HERE ARE SOME OF THE VOICES WE HEARD FROM THIS WEEK.
以下為本週我們聽到的聲音。
1:48:11
>> I THINK THIS IS THE WORST
ECONOMIC POLICY IN ALMOST 100 YEARS.
>> 我認為這將是近 100 年來最糟糕的經濟政策。
1:48:15
THE ECONOMY, RECESSION
PROBABILITIES HAVE PROBABLY GONE ABOVE 50% NOW.
經濟方面，經濟衰退的可能性現在可能已超過 50%。
1:48:22
>> THERE ARE FEW INDICATORS
THAT SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL IN TERMS OF ITS
IMPACT IN A NEGATIVE WAY TO THE ECONOMY.
>> 很少有指標顯示這不會對經濟造成實質的負面衝擊。
1:48:31
>> THE FACT IS EVERYBODY IS
PUTTING MORE PROBABILITY OF RECESSION.
>> 事實是，每個人都認為經濟衰退的可能性增加了。
1:48:34
ALTHOUGH I WILL ADMIT
ECONOMISTS DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CREDIBILITY CALLING RECESSIONS.
雖然我必須承認，經濟學家在預測衰退方面並沒有太多可信度。
1:48:42
>> WE ARE TALKING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SORT OF A MILD RECESSION.
>> 我們正在談論可能出現某種輕微衰退的可能性。
1:48:46
FOR THESE COUNTRIES, YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A SERIOUS
DEPRESSION IF THEY REALLY GET CUT OFF FROM THE U.S.
對這些國家而言，如果他們真的被切斷與美國的聯繫，那將是一場嚴重的蕭條。
1:48:55
>> WE HAVE MOVED TO A LITTLE
BIT WORSE THAN OUR WORST CASE SCENARIO BECAUSE THE TARIFFS
ARE NOW LIKELY, EVEN WITH SOME ROLLBACK AND NEGOTIATION, THEY
COULD EASILY HIT THE HIGHEST
