00:09
good afternoon ladies and gentlemen this is Barry Norman on behalf of investing.com and Welcome to our class
女士們、先生們，午安，我是 Barry Norman，代表 Investing.com 向各位問好，歡迎來到我們的課程
00:15
on beginning or understanding technical analysis
關於技術分析的入門與理解
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now technical analysis is very very important for you to understand how the markets move learning to get the most
現在，技術分析對您理解市場如何運作非常非常重要，學習如何充分利用
00:31
out of using technical analysis will help you trade successfully and make smart decisions now technical
技術分析將幫助您成功交易並做出明智的決策。現在，技術
00:39
analysis is the study of Market action primarily through the use of charts for the purpose of forecasting future price
分析主要是透過圖表的使用來研究市場行為，目的是預測未來的價格
00:49
trends in its purest form technical analysis considers only the price actual price behavior of the market or
趨勢。在其最純粹的形式中，技術分析只考慮市場或商品的實際價格行為，
00:57
instrument based on the premise that price PR reflects all relevant factors before an investor becomes aware of them
基於這樣的前提：價格已反映所有相關因素，然後投資者才透過其他管道
01:05
through other channels so in other words if you're a true technician you don't pay any attention to the news you don't
意識到這些因素。所以換句話說，如果您是真正的技術分析師，您不會注意新聞，也不會
01:13
look at economic events you watch price movement on charts you assume that all that is and will
看經濟事件，您只看圖表上的價格走勢。您假設所有過去和未來
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affect the price of an asset is already factored into the price because somebody is already watching the news somebody's
會影響資產價格的因素，都已經反映在價格中，因為已經有人在關注新聞，已經有人
01:30
already taking in account for those economic events so that's already moved facted into the price technician doesn't
在考慮那些經濟事件，所以這些都已經反映在價格中了。技術分析師並不在乎
01:38
really care what the reason was it moved the market he wants to see why the market moved how it moved and he wants
是什麼原因讓市場移動，他想看到的是市場為什麼移動、如何移動，他想
01:47
to understand the psychology around the movement because technicians believe that there are patterns repeated
理解圍繞這波動的心理，因為技術分析師相信，基於買方和賣方的
01:55
in price movement based on the psychological makeup of buyers and sellers and even though it sounds like
心理構成，價格波動中存在著重複的模式。雖然聽起來
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it's not really a science or a study when you explain it that way it really is and technical analysis bases or is
這不像是一門科學或學問，但當你這樣解釋時，它確實是。技術分析是基於或建立在
02:10
based on three assumptions and these assumptions are as far from scientific
三個假設之上，這些假設離科學
02:17
as you can get but they are very very important and they form the Crux of all technical
非常非常遠，但它們非常重要，構成了所有技術分析的
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analysis number one is that history tends to repeat itself and this is more about price movement in
核心。第一點是歷史往往會重演，這更多是關於價格走勢的模式，這些模式在
02:33
patterns that develop in price technicians believe that the market psychology will repeat itself so when
價格中發展。技術分析師相信市場心理會重演，所以當
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you see the markets reacting in a particular way now and you can see how it reacted in that same fashion two
您看到市場現在以某種特定方式反應，並且您能看到它在兩年前以同樣方式反應時
02:49
years ago that you can predict how the markets will move forward because the psychological makeup of the Bulls and
幾年前，你能夠預測市場將如何前進，因為多頭和空頭、買方和賣方的心理特質基本上保持不變。
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the Bears the buyers and the sellers remain pretty much the same they also believe that price moves
他們也相信價格會在趨勢中移動，在上升趨勢然後是下降趨勢，以及可預測的移動。
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in Trends in uptrends and then downtrends and predictable movement the price will
價格將會上漲，因為多頭主導市場，然後當他們力竭時，空頭將會接管控制權。
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move up as the Bulls dominate the market and then when they wear out the Bears will take control of it there's entire
有整個基於趨勢移動的交易策略，艾略特波浪、
03:20
trading strategies based on the movement of Trends Elliot
擺動交易，全都基於這種心理學。
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waves um and swing Trading all based on this psychology but if you're new to the markets and haven't heard it yet the
但如果你是市場新手，還沒聽過這句話，「趨勢是你的朋友」這句格言非常非常重要。
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saying that the trend is your friend is very very important now technical analysis is
現在，技術分析在交易者和金融專業人士中被廣泛使用。
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widely used among Traders and financial Professionals in fact most of the black box systems that you hear out there most
事實上，你聽到的大多數黑盒子系統、
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of the robotic trading and the computerized Trad are all based on technical analysis because they believe
大多數機器人交易和電腦化交易，全都基於技術分析。
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that by removing the emotion from the market you can better analyze what is going to happen now some studies say
因為他們相信，透過從市場中移除情緒，你可以更好地分析將會發生什麼事。
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it's more widespread than fundamental analysis in the financial markets now fundamental analysis is what most
有些研究指出，它在金融市場中比基本面分析更為普遍。
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beginning Traders rely on because it's things you can readily understand jobs
現在，基本面分析是大多數新手交易者依賴的方法，因為這是你可以輕易理解的事物。
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reports speeches elections economic events geopolitical conflicts so it's easy to predict price movement based on
就業報告、演講、選舉、經濟事件、地緣政治衝突，所以基於這些事件來預測價格移動是很容易的。
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these events so most beginning Traders start out from that but most professional Traders
所以大多數新手交易者從那開始，但大多數專業交易者
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either are technicians or combine technical analysis into their fundamental
要麼是技術分析師，要麼將技術分析結合到他們的基本面分析中。
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analysis now technical analysis of methodology that makes buy and sell decisions using Market statistics it
現在，技術分析是一種使用市場統計數據來做出買賣決策的方法。
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primarily involves studying charts showing how trading history and statistics of whatever security is being
它主要涉及研究圖表，這些圖表顯示了任何被分析證券的交易歷史和統計數據。
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anal analyzed so technical analysis holds true and works the same whether you're
所以技術分析是成立的，並且運作方式相同，無論你是在交易商品或貨幣、
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trading Commodities or currencies stocks or indices or you're a rice Trader to perform technical analysis
股票或指數，或者你是一位稻米交易者，要執行技術分析。
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investors start with charts that show the price and the trading volume history of a particular security or index as
投資者從顯示特定證券或指數的價格和交易量歷史的圖表開始。
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well as hosts of other statistical measures such as moving averages maximums and minimums and percent
還有許多其他統計指標，例如移動平均線、最高點與最低點，以及百分比變動
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changes the idea is to use charts to identify Trends and changes in those Trends there are several kinds of Trends
其理念在於利用圖表來識別趨勢以及這些趨勢的變化。趨勢有幾種
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and patterns some with unusual names and once you start trading you'll hear them all rectangles triangles Binger bands
與型態，有些名稱相當特別，一旦你開始交易，你將會聽到所有名稱：矩形、三角形、布林帶
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inverted Head and Shoulders candlesticks macd histograms stochastics and so
頭肩頂倒轉、K線、MACD柱狀圖、隨機指標等等
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forth some technical analysis also use indicators and oscillators to interpret trading data
部分技術分析也使用指標與震盪指標來解讀交易數據
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so the question is where do we start technical analysis can be as complex or as simple as you want it to be but it
所以問題來了，我們該從何開始？技術分析可以如你所願般地複雜或簡單，但
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all starts it all starts on the same basis
它全都始於相同的基礎
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it starts out by being able to read a chart so building your road map to success you need to start off with the
它始於能夠讀懂圖表。因此，要打造通往成功的路線圖，你需要從
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proper foundation and that is how to understand what a chart is and how charts work so unlike fundamental
正確的基礎開始，那就是如何理解圖表是什麼以及圖表如何運作。因此，不同於基本面
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analysis which focus on finding the Security's True Value by studying financial statements Market outlooks
分析著重於透過研究財務報表、市場展望、
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competition macroeconomics technical analysis is based on the belief that past TR market trends can predict the
競爭與總體經濟來尋找證券的真實價值，技術分析基於一個信念，即過去的市場趨勢可以預測
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future behavior of markets as well as the whole or even individual stocks if an investor can correctly
市場未來的行為，甚至是整體或個別股票的走勢。如果投資人能夠正確地
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interpret a chart's message and predict the Security's movement he or she can obviously make a lot of money certain
解讀圖表的訊息並預測證券的走勢，他或她顯然可以賺大錢。技術分析的某些
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aspects of technical analysis are controversial such as a belief that markets moveing trends that can play out
屬性頗具爭議，例如相信市場存在可持續很長時間的趨勢，
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over very long periods of time and the contention that market action can detect shifts in supply and demand
以及主張市場行為可以偵測供需關係的轉變。
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relationships now there are many reasons that you should use technical analysis even if you don't fully believe in it
現在有許多理由讓你應該使用技術分析，即使你並不完全相信它。
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one of the hardest ways or or one of the most fervent reasons I can give you for using technical
我能給你使用技術分析最困難、或者說最熱切的理由之一是，它可能會指出你犯下的某些錯誤。
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analysis is it might point out some mistake you've made with the technical analysis if you think because Donald
如果你認為因為唐納·川普當選總統，美元應該下跌，結果美元卻上漲了。如果你一直在圖表中尋找某些跡象，
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Trump won the election the dollar should go down and the dollar goes up possibly if you've been looking for something in
它可能早已警告你，你的假設是錯的。現在，技術分析相信
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the charts it might have forewarned you that your assumption was wrong now technical analysis believes
圖表可能早已警告你，你的假設是錯的。現在，技術分析相信
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that investors in Mass display much of the same behavior as the investors that preceded
Mass 的投資者展現出的行為，與他們之前的投資者非常相似
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them everyone wants to be in on Microsoft if the stock ever gets to5 $50 again I will buy it the company's
每個人都想參與 Microsoft，如果股價再次達到 50 美元我就會買進，這家公司的
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technology will revolutionize its industry therefore the stock will Skyrocket these are all examples of
技術將會革新其產業，因此股價將會飆升，這些都是
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investors attitudes repeating to a technical analysis the human characteristic of the market might
投資者態度在技術分析中重複的例子，市場的人性特徵可能
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be irrational but nonetheless they exist because investors attitudes often repeat investors actions in the marketplace
是非理性的，但儘管如此它們確實存在，因為投資者的態度經常重複，投資者在市場中的行為
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often repeat as well as patterns and price movements will develop on a chart that a technical analyst believes have
也經常重複，因此圖表上會形成型態與價格走勢，技術分析師相信這些型態具有
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predictive qualities not at the price but the pattern when you start seeing a price move up and you start
預測性質，不是預測價格，而是預測型態，當你看到價格開始上漲，並且看到
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seeing it move in the same pattern means the psychology of the markets is the same as it was a year ago even though
它以相同的型態移動，這意味著市場心理與一年前相同，儘管
08:59
that price was very very much lower or much more different but when the Bulls and the Bears are reacting in the same
當時的價格非常非常低或截然不同，但當多頭與空頭以相同的
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way you can then use that to predict how the psychology will affect the markets
方式反應時，你就可以利用這點來預測心理將如何影響市場
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today now more or less you things repeat themselves through Cycles over and over you know you watch the housing market
現在，或多或少，事情會透過週期一再重複，你知道你觀察房地產市場
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the job market we know when the job market crashed in 2006 or 2008 and the housing market we knew it would come
就業市場，我們知道當就業市場在 2006 年或 2008 年崩盤，以及房地產市場，我們知道它會
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back back and now it's going to actually come back the prices are coming back to where they were before the crash people
回來，現在它確實正在回來，價格正在回到崩盤前的水平，人們
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have you know and the markets will then start to do almost the same thing the psychology the of the G because the
知道，市場將會開始幾乎做同樣的事情，貪婪的心理，因為
09:42
greed and the fear in people doesn't change now I'm a firm believer that a lot of people try to look at patterns
人們的貪婪與恐懼並不會改變。我堅信很多人試圖研究
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that happened many years ago I firmly believe that it does tell was the
許多年前發生的型態，我堅信這確實告訴了我們
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psychology of the markets but the psychology of the people in the markets changes because the makeup of the market
市場的心理，但市場中人們的心理會改變，因為市場的組成
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changes so in other words when I started trading back in the 1970s you know we were all basically day Traders we would
改變了，所以換句話說，當我在 1970 年代開始交易時，我們基本上都是當日沖銷交易者，我們會
10:13
sit in a broker's office watch the ticker tape for the and there was only a handful the markets moved very slow then
坐在經紀商的辦公室裡，看著報價帶，那時只有少數人，市場移動非常緩慢，然後
10:20
in the 80s and the 90s when retail investing started and we started to get these low commission accounts and we
在 80 年代和 90 年代，當散戶投資開始興起，我們開始有了這些低佣金帳戶，我們
10:28
started to get more more different people into the marketplace and then with the beginning of the 2000s with all
開始讓更多不同的人進入市場，然後到了 2000 年代初期，隨著
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this new retail online traffic the people that make up the market has changed you know 10 years ago we didn't
這些新的零售線上流量，構成市場的人已經改變了，你知道 10 年前我們沒有
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have evening investors we didn't have investors that were trying to do this as a you know an extra bonus we had we
夜間投資者，我們沒有試圖把這當作額外獎金來做的投資者，我們沒有
10:50
didn't have binary options we didn't have cfds forx was just starting we didn't have leverage and margin so
二元期權，我們沒有差價合約，外匯才剛起步，我們沒有槓桿和保證金，所以
10:56
what's happened is the makeup of the market Market has changed and therefore the people have changed and the
發生的事情是市場的組成改變了，因此人也改變了，而且
11:03
psychology of the markets have changed so it's very important when you start reading or learning about technical
市場心理也改變了，所以當你開始閱讀或學習技術分析時，這點非常重要。很多人試圖說服你，如果你在 1985 年看到一個型態
11:09
analysis A lot of people try to convince you that if you saw a pattern in in 1985
87.
11:16
and it repeated again in 1996 and you start seeing the same thing developed now that is going to have the same
並且在 1996 年又重複了一次，而你現在開始看到同樣的東西發展出來，那將會有同樣的
11:23
action most likely they are wrong because you guys listen to me are much different than what I was 35 or 40 years
行為，但他們很可能錯了，因為你們聽我說話的人，和我 35 或 40 年前
11:33
ago because we didn't have computers to learn from we learned by studying we wrote charts by hand took hours today
大不相同，因為我們當時沒有電腦可以學習，我們是透過研究來學習，我們手繪圖表，花費數小時，而今天
11:40
you can learn how to use a chart in no time flat and a chart will put everything you need on there you don't
你可以在極短的時間內學會如何使用圖表，圖表會把你需要的一切都放上去，你不需要
11:45
have to learn the calculations of how what RSI is or what macd is you don't have to sit there and actually know the
去學習 RSI 或 MACD 是什麼的計算，你不需要坐在那裡真正了解
11:52
mathematics and actually be putting it on your charts the markets moved a lot slower in those days we didn't have
數學，也不需要親自把它畫在你的圖表上，市場在那些日子裡移動得慢很多，我們沒有
11:58
internet so we couldn't get the news as fast it was hard to get data I mean mostly we had ticker tapes and fax
網路，所以我們無法那麼快得到新聞，數據很難取得，我的意思是我們大多只有行情報價機和傳真
12:05
machines so all this has changed so it's though it's important to understand that the realm of technical
機，所以這一切都改變了，因此，重要的是要理解技術分析的領域
12:12
analysis is not limited to chared technical analysis is always the primary concern of with price
並不僅限於圖表，技術分析始終是價格趨勢的首要關注點，
12:20
trends anything that can influence the price is of interest to the technical analysis as an example many technical
任何能影響價格的因素都是技術分析有興趣的，舉例來說，許多技術分析
12:28
analysis monitor surveys of investors enthusiasm these surveys attempt to gauge the general attitude of the
會監測投資者熱情的調查，這些調查試圖衡量投資界的普遍態度，以
12:36
investment Community to determine whether investors are bearish or bullish but again this is a mathematical
決定投資者是看空還是看多，但這再次是一個數學計算
12:42
calculation and a monitor that is then dropped on a chart it is not an economic
和一個監測器，然後被投射到圖表上，它不是經濟學
12:48
event okay it is not a speech okay technical analysis uses these surveys to
事件 好的 這不是演講 好的 技術分析利用這些調查來
12:56
determine whether Trends will reverse or whether Trend new trends will develop because if you see volume changing and
判斷趨勢是否會反轉 或者新趨勢是否會形成 因為如果你看到成交量變化
13:04
you see more bears or more Bulls entering the marketplace you know which direction you're P so we want to be
並且看到更多空頭或多頭進入市場 你就知道市場的方向 所以我們希望
13:10
aware of what their attitude is okay a technical analysis a technical analysis would be alerted that a trend might
了解他們的態度 好的 技術分析 技術分析會在這些調查報告顯示
13:18
change when these survey reports ex report extreme investor reactions when surveys are overly bullish for example a
極端的投資者反應時發出警訊 例如當調查過度看漲時 技術分析師
13:27
techn anst will look evidence that an uptrend will begin will will reverse this is called being overbought or
會尋找上升趨勢將開始或將反轉的證據 這被稱為市場超買或
13:35
oversold in the market and these are mathematical calculations that are placed below a
超賣 這些是放置在圖表下方的數學計算
13:40
chart and depending on what the calculation is it will tell you simply whether the markets are overbought and
根據計算的不同 它會簡單地告訴你市場是否超買和
13:46
oversold doesn't mean they're going to reverse it just means they have a tendency so the logic being that in most
超賣 這並不意味著它們一定會反轉 只是意味著它們有這種傾向 所以背後的邏輯是 當大多數
13:53
investors are bullish then they would have already bought into the market okay because
投資者都看漲時 他們應該已經買進了市場 好的 因為
13:59
but because most investors are bullish and have invested it's safe to assume that there are few buyers remaining on
但因為大多數投資者都看漲並已投資 可以安全地假設場外幾乎沒有買家了 所以這一切都來自技術分析 現在 技術分析是否真的有用是
14:05
the sidelines so all of this comes from technical analysis now whether technical analysis is really useful is a matter of
有爭議的 一些投資者認為預測市場的漲跌是不可能的 經濟研究顯示
14:13
some dispute some investors believe that is impossible to forecast a Market's ups and downs economic Studies have shown
當大多數人 專業人士和業餘人士 試圖將資金進出股票以戰勝市場波動時
14:21
that when most people professionals and amatur like try to move money in and out of stocks to beat Market fluctuation
他們往往最終會虧損 一些學術研究指出技術分析幾乎沒有
14:29
they tend to wind up with losses some acade academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive
預測能力 但其他研究說它可能會產生超額回報 例如 一種可衡量的技術
14:36
power but other studies say it may produce excess returns for example a measurable form of technical
分析形式 例如使用神經網絡的非線性預測 已被證明偶爾能產生統計上
14:45
analysis such as a nonlinear prediction using neural networks have been shown to occasionally produce statistical
顯著的預測結果 現在 這真的
14:52
significant predicting results now it really
只有在你將其視為工具時才有效 這也是為什麼機器人和黑盒子最終無法成功
14:59
is only if you you understand is a tool and ultimately it's why robots and black boxes are not ultimately successful
的原因 因為沒有人類的本質 人類才是那個能夠處理所有這些數據的人
15:08
without a human nature because the human being is the one that can then take all of this data
沒有人類的本質，因為人類才是那個能夠處理所有這些數據的人
15:17
in and use their gut and unfortunately your gut or your luck is always going to
並依靠他們的直覺，不幸的是，你的直覺或運氣總是會
15:24
have a deciding factor it's an uncalculated investment an uncalculated
扮演決定性的因素。這是一種未經計算的投資，是交易中
15:29
part of trading in 1982 83 and 84 I couldn't make a trade that went bad as long as I used the strategy I develop
未經計算的一部分。在 1982、83 和 84 年，只要我使用我研發的策略，
15:39
made the trade follow my rules everything went perfect by 1985 I was using those same rules and I couldn't
執行交易並遵守我的規則，我就不可能虧損，一切都非常順利。到了 1985 年，我依然使用同樣的規則，但我卻
15:46
make one good trade by 1986 I had lost everything I made in 82 83 and 84 now
無法完成一筆獲利的交易。到了 1986 年，我輸光了在 82、83 和 84 年賺到的一切。現在
15:54
why well markets change but also your luck changes and when you start a run of
為什麼呢？因為市場會改變，但你的運氣也會改變。當你開始一連串的
16:01
successes you get a little bit more I I don't know the word you get a little bit more aggressive you get a
成功時，你會變得有點……我不知道該怎麼形容，你會變得有點更具侵略性，你會變得
16:10
little bit more confident when you start having a few losses you start questioning yourself and even though
更加自信。當你開始遭遇一些虧損時，你會開始質疑自己，即使
16:17
your rules change or your rules don't change and they keep you on course that little bit
你的規則沒有改變，它們依然能讓你保持在正軌上，但那一點點
16:23
of luck can have a difference that little bit of feeling in your soul and this is what the reasons I tell all new
的運氣可能會造成差異，靈魂深處的那一點點感覺。這就是為什麼我告訴所有新手
16:29
Traders Master a couple assets know their personality like I was only an agricultural Trader I only traded
交易員：精通幾個資產，瞭解它們的特性。就像我以前只是一個農產品交易員，我只交易
16:37
agriculture that was it very very limited okay because I would know everything and anything and you had the
農產品，僅此而已，非常非常有限。因為這樣我才能完全掌握一切，你才有能力去
16:43
ability to feel a trade okay now there are three parts of
感受一筆交易。好了，現在有三個部分
16:51
beginning to put information on a chart that help technical analysis and this is
開始將資訊放到圖表上，以協助技術分析，這就是
16:57
the trends support and resistance and these are firm things that we need no matter what
趨勢、支撐和阻力。這些是我們無論使用什麼
17:06
trading system you're doing even if you're trading with fundamental analysis and you're not even really involved in
交易系統都需要的堅實要素，即使你使用基本面分析進行交易，甚至沒有真正參與
17:12
charge by understanding support and resistance and trends at least you can then when you've decided using your
掌控。透過理解支撐、阻力和趨勢，至少當你決定
17:20
fundamental analysis tools to trade an asset going up don't you want to know when that asset is moving up where it
使用基本面分析工具交易某個上漲的資產時，你會想知道該資產上漲時，在哪裡
17:27
should have a reaction where might fall where it might not go through or if it reverses against you at what point
應該會有反應、可能在哪裡下跌、可能在哪裡無法突破，或者如果它逆轉對你不利，你應該在什麼點位
17:33
should you be exiting the market or is just a breather and this you're only going to get from technical analysis
離開市場，或者那只是一個喘息的機會？而這一點，你只能從技術分析中獲得。
17:40
from prices on charts and these come from Trends and support and resistance it just simply let you know at what
圖表上的價格來自趨勢線以及支撐與壓力，它只是簡單地讓你知道在哪個價格水平可能會遇到反應
17:48
price levels you might expect a response now most investors tend to be either technicians or fundamental investors
大多數投資者傾向於成為技術派或基本面派
17:58
though many believe in combining Technical and fundamental analysis is the best way to evaluate exit and entry
儘管許多人相信結合技術分析與基本面分析是評估進出場點的最佳方式
18:04
points since many people believe in technical trading rules at the very least the rules can become
既然有許多人相信技術交易規則，至少這些規則會成為自我實現的預言
18:12
self-fulfilling making them important to know for the individual investor now
因此對個人投資者而言了解這些規則很重要
18:20
imagine you have a chart you've put the correct trend line on there following the rules you've put the correct levels
想像你有一張圖表，你已經按照規則畫上了正確的趨勢線，也標示了正確的支撐與壓力水平
18:30
of support and resistance so you now expecting the euro to react at
所以你現在預期歐元會在 10871 產生反應
18:38
10871 you're expecting you don't know whether it's going to go above it or below but you're expecting some type of
你預期會有反應，但不知道會向上突破還是向下跌破，但你預期在該價格會有某種類型的反應
18:44
reaction to at that price level because everything has come together there okay you can't predict which way it's going
因為所有條件都在那裡匯集了
18:52
to go but when you can predict a price level or you can formulate a price level where the market should have some
你無法預測它會往哪個方向走，但你可以預測一個價格水平，或者你可以制定一個市場應該會有反應的價格水平
19:00
reaction and the fact is the million other Traders trading that Euro at that time also had that same price on their
事實上，當時交易歐元的其他上百萬名交易者也在他們的圖表上看到相同的價格
19:07
charts and they're going to react well when you see what their reaction is you can
他們也會做出反應，當你看到他們的反應時
19:15
then make a smart decision or if you expect some reaction at the Euro at 10871 and you're in the Euro going
你就可以做出明智的決定，或者如果你預期歐元在 10871 會有反應，而你正在做多歐元
19:25
up what where would you might set your take profit point because you can always come back into the market so where would
你可能會在哪裡設定你的獲利了結點？因為你總是能夠重新進場，那麼我該在哪裡設定我的獲利了結點？
19:32
I set my take profit I tell my trade to close at 10871 because if it's going to bounce
我會告訴我的交易在 10871 平倉，因為如果它要反彈後下跌
19:38
off and fall below I'll lock in my profit if it does bounce off and fall below I can re-enter the market if I
我可以鎖定利潤，如果它真的反彈後下跌，我可以重新進場，如果我
19:44
believe it's going to continue back up after that or if it breaks above and I was wrong I still locked in my profit
相信它之後會繼續上漲，或者如果它向上突破而我錯了，我仍然鎖定了利潤
19:51
got it in my account I can re-enter the market when it breaks above to continue going up okay because you can enter and
錢已經在我的帳戶裡，當它向上突破時我可以重新進場繼續做多
19:57
exit the Market all you want if you say okay we know 10871 is an important number in this uptrend and we
因為你可以隨意進出市場，如果你說，好的，我們知道 10871 是這波上升趨勢中的一個重要數字
20:07
see a break the 10871 we might decide to enter the market to go up to the next level that
我們看到 10871 被突破，我們可能會決定進場做多到下一個水平
20:13
we decided is important or you can continually move your stop losses called a trailing stop loss to keep locking in
我們決定這很重要，或者你可以持續移動你的停損點，稱為移動式停損（trailing stop loss），以便持續鎖定
20:20
your profit but before you could do any of this is you have to start out with your charts and charts are a road map to
你的利潤，但在做這些之前，你必須從圖表開始，而圖表是通往
20:29
your success they are the beginning of where you start so technical analysis basically is all wrapped around charts
你成功的路線圖，它們是你開始的起點，所以技術分析基本上都是圍繞著圖表
20:39
now charts come in three different styles okay now there's a zillion different kinds of charts out there
現在圖表有三種不同的樣式，好吧，市面上有無數種
20:45
today with computers all these people are coming up but they still fall in these three main categories and these
不同的圖表，但隨著電腦的發展，雖然出現了各種各樣的人，但它們仍然屬於這三大類，這些
20:51
are called bar charts line charts and Candlestick charts okay all the other
稱為條形圖、線圖和K線圖（Candlestick charts），好吧，所有其他的
20:58
variations are variations of these three okay now the fact is the more detailed
變體都是這三種的變體，好吧，事實是，你放在圖表上的資訊越詳細
21:06
information you put on your chart the more likely you're not going to get lost so if you remember right before we had
你就越不會迷失方向，所以如果你記得，在我們有
21:12
GPS we had maps and before I'd go to a meeting that was you know across town I I'd find out where was where I how how I
GPS 之前，我們有地圖，在我去城另一頭開會之前，我會找出我在哪裡以及我該如何
21:22
have to get there now I was was pretty lazy okay somebody say okay we're over off of the you know the Beltway on exit
到達那裡。好吧，我當時是個懶人，有人說，我們在你知道的環城公路（Beltway）七號出口附近，我就會知道，但我不會再
21:29
number seven I would know that but I wouldn't go any farther where I had friends that carried atlases in their
更進一步確認，而我有些朋友在車上帶著地圖冊，他們可以告訴你，不僅是
21:35
car and they could tell you not only this you know get off in this Lane get onto that lane get off and when you see
在這個車道下匝道，轉到那個車道，下匝道，當你看到
21:41
The Filling Station go two more blocks you see the church turn right at the church go to the third stoplight and
加油站時，再過兩個街區，你會看到教堂，在教堂那裡右轉，走到第三個紅綠燈，然後
21:46
pull in the parking lot because they could read their Maps now I spent a lot of time pulling
開進停車場，因為他們會看地圖。我花了很多時間在加油站停車
21:53
off in the gas stations asking for directions spent a lot of time getting lost my business partner those days
問路，也花了很多時間迷路，我的生意夥伴在那些日子
21:59
never got lost ever so I was the driver and he was the guide and we always got where we're
從來沒有迷路，所以我當司機，他當嚮導，我們總能到達我們
22:07
going because he could read the maps in detail now when we start looking at our
想去的地方，因為他能詳細地看懂地圖。現在當我們開始看我們的
22:13
charts we start off with a Bare Basics and this is called a line chart it really doesn't help us much of anything
圖表時，我們從最基本的開始，這稱為線圖，它對我們幾乎沒有什麼幫助
22:22
a line chart is a simple dot put on a chart at the close of a Time period based on the time frame you're looking
線圖是在一個時間週期結束時，在圖表上放置的一個簡單點，基於你正在查看的
22:30
at so right now we're looking at the Euro US dollar in a 30 minute time frame which means every 30 minutes we put a
時間框架。所以現在我們正在查看歐元兌美元（Euro US dollar）的30分鐘時間框架，這意味著每30分鐘我們放置一個
22:38
dot on this price on the chart at the price that the Euro US dollar was trading at and we connect those dots
在圖表上的這個價格點，也就是歐元兌美元當時的交易價格，我們將這些點連起來
22:44
together and we have the price movement okay it gives us a general look at how price is moving but no detail we can see
一起，我們就有了價格走勢。好的，這讓我們大致了解價格是如何移動的，但沒有細節。我們看不到
22:53
nothing except the Euro was falling in this chart okay we can't tell if it was a St steady decline we can't tell was
任何東西，除了歐元在這張圖表上是下跌的。好的，我們看不出它是否是穩定下跌，我們看不出它是否
22:59
been bouncing up and down and just where it closed but we get some general information not anything I I would risk
一直在上下波動以及它收盤的位置，但我們得到一些大致的資訊，不是那種我會冒著
23:06
my money on now from here we come to a bar chart which is by most professional
賠錢風險去交易的資訊。現在我們來到條形圖，這是大多數專業
23:15
Traders their best of favorite chart and as you can see this is a bar
交易員最喜歡的圖表，正如你所見，這是同一時間
23:24
chart for the same time frame and the same asset we looked got on the line chart okay so this is the line chart
框架和同一資產的條形圖，我們之前看的是線圖。好的，所以這是線圖，
23:32
where we put it as a bar chart all of a sudden we can see a lot more information we can very easily visually
當我們把它變成條形圖時，突然間我們可以看到更多資訊。我們可以非常容易地直觀
23:39
see how the price has been moving we can actually see common prices we can see trend lines we can look at almost
看到價格是如何移動的。我們實際上可以看到常見的價格，我們可以看到趨勢線，我們幾乎可以不用
23:48
without putting a line on the chart see predictions look at how important this trend line is right here in this
在圖表上畫線就能看到預測。看看這條趨勢線在這個下降趨勢中有多重要。看看這個價格對這個資產
23:54
downtrend look at how important this price is for this asset when we see all these opens and closes and these tops
有多重要，當我們看到所有這些開盤價和收盤價，以及這些頂部
24:01
and bottoms at the same price okay look at how strong this uptrend is but we can see common Price look when we do the
和底部都在同一個價格時。好的，看看這個上升趨勢有多強勁，但我們可以看到常見的價格。看當我們在
24:08
downtrend here we can actually put this downtrend line on here and see a price that's been strategically important all
這裡做下降趨勢時，我們實際上可以把這條下降趨勢線畫在這裡，看到一個在整個下跌過程中
24:16
the way down now in a bar chart and this is called a bar because each time frame has
都具有戰略重要性的價格。現在在條形圖中，這被稱為條，因為每個時間框架
24:22
a bar on it each one of these represents the same 30 minute
都有一個條。每一個都代表相同的30分鐘
24:30
segment okay or whatever time frame you've decided to use for your charts and this tells us a whole entire story
區間。好的，或者你決定用於圖表的任何時間框架，這告訴我們整個故事
24:38
of how price moved in that 30 minute period and an easy to see visual image what we see
說明在那30分鐘期間價格是如何移動的，以及一個易於查看的視覺圖像。我們看到
24:46
is the top the high the bottom of the close the open and the low in each one of these
的是每個條中的最高點、高點、最低點、收盤價、開盤價和低點，
24:55
bars so we see everything that happen in that 30 minute period so sometimes these are referred to as an
所以我們看到在那30分鐘期間發生的所有事情。所以有時這些被稱為
25:03
ohlc open high low and close and what we do is every 30 minutes or whatever time frame we've decided and we'll talk about
OHLC（開盤、最高、最低、收盤），我們所做的就是每30分鐘或我們決定的任何時間框架，我們稍後會討論
25:13
time frames in a little bit is we put a bar or a doohickey to the left at the open so at the beginning of that
在時間框架的部分，我們會在開盤時在左邊畫一個棒狀圖或一個小記號，所以在那個
25:21
30-minute period wherever that price is and it opens that's where we put this little doohickey okay at the close of
30 分鐘週期的開始，無論價格在哪裡，它開盤的地方就是我們放置這個小記號的位置，好嗎？在那
25:28
that 30 minutes we put another dockey to the opposite direction so we put a dash to
30 分鐘的收盤時，我們在相反方向放另一個記號，所以我們在右邊放一個短線
25:35
the right we then put a dot on the top of the highest price that that asset touched in that 30 minute
我們然後在該資產在那 30 分鐘內觸及的最高價位上放一個點
25:44
time frame and we took a DOT at the lowest price we then connect them together with a
我們在最低價位放一個點，然後我們用一條線將它們連接起來
25:50
line so what do we have we have open high low and close and we have a bullish
那麼我們有什麼呢？我們有開盤價、最高價、最低價和收盤價，而且我們有一個看漲
25:58
signal why is it bullish who controlled the markets during that 13 that 30 minute segment or that time
信號。為什麼是看漲？是誰在那 13 分鐘、那 30 分鐘的區間或那段時間
26:05
segment it's bullish because what happened was we stepped up the ladder from the open to the
控制了市場？它是看漲的，因為發生的事情是我們從開盤到
26:13
close so at the end of that 30 minute segment the Bulls had contr control of the
收盤一步步往上爬，所以在那段 30 分鐘區間結束時，多頭掌控了
26:21
marketplace they opened here and they controlled the market sure the market pushed up higher and pushed down lower
市場，他們在這裡開盤並控制了市場，當然市場有往上推高和往下壓低
26:26
because the market still tra but predominantly the Bulls had control of the ball in that
因為市場仍然在波動，但主要來說，多頭在那段
26:33
segment now conversely if the open was here and we put the dash for the close here and
區間掌控了球權。現在相反地，如果開盤在這裡，我們把收盤的短線畫在這裡，而且
26:43
we saw we Ste down the ladder that tells us the Bears were in control of the market now understanding who's
我們看到我們一步步走下階梯，這告訴我們空頭當時控制了市場。現在了解是誰
26:50
controlling the market at the moment is critically important to trading okay as Les so important than
在當下控制市場對交易至關重要，好嗎？正如 Les 所說，這比
26:58
the price because who's in control makes up the psychology of the
價格更重要，因為是誰在掌控構成了市場的
27:06
markets and it also lets us see what prices are common where do these prices
心理，也讓我們看到哪些價格是常見的，這些價格在哪裡
27:13
see actions and reactions okay from here we can move on to one of the oldest styles of charting
看到行動和反應。好嗎？從這裡我們可以進入最古老的圖表繪製風格之一
27:23
which is called candlesticks now with the development of online trading and Forex Trad or retail trading we have
稱為 K 線圖（candlesticks）。隨著線上交易和外匯交易或零售交易的發展，我們
27:33
seen this huge jump in Traders wanted to use Japanese candlesticks now the fact is they've
看到想要使用日本 K 線圖的交易者出現了巨大的跳躍式增長。現在事實是它們
27:41
been around since the 1700s and Japanese candlesticks have the same
自 1700 年代就已存在，而且日本 K 線圖具有相同的
27:46
information that a bar chart have except they're kind of pretty to look at and too many Traders make assumptions based
除了圖表看起來比較漂亮之外，圖表本身並沒有提供更多的資訊，而太多交易員會根據價格走勢的顏色做出假設
27:56
on the colors of which way price is moving and if you notice I said assumption and what's the old saying
如果你注意到我說的是「假設」，那句老話是怎麼說的
28:04
about assumption it makes an ass out of you and me now Japanese candlesticks have very
做出假設（Assume）會讓你我（u and me）出醜（ass）
28:12
little to do with the colors you see now this is the same CA price movement same chart as we saw for the bar chart with
而日本K線（蠟燭圖）與你現在看到的顏色幾乎沒有關係，這張圖的價格走勢與我們剛才看的條形圖是相同的
28:20
the Japanese Candlestick we do the same process except we color in the red color in this case or
我們對日本K線做同樣的處理，只是我們將其填滿顏色，在這個案例中是紅色
28:29
whatever is the bearish color when it was a step down the ladder when it's a step up the ladder we color it in with
或者任何代表下跌的顏色，當它是向上爬升時，我們就用
28:38
the bullish or whatever we consider the strong color we are human beings and human beings tend to act and react based
上漲的顏色，或者我們認為強勢的顏色來填滿它。我們是人類，人類傾向於根據
28:46
on these colors but the colors are not what Japanese candlesticks are about there are actually 32 different
這些顏色採取行動或做出反應，但顏色並不是日本K線的重點。根據影線（Wicks）
28:55
interpretations of the candle based on the Wicks okay and the length and the shape
以及實體的長度和形狀，以及一個實體與另一個實體相鄰時的樣貌，實際上有32種不同的
29:01
of the body and what one body looks like next to the other body and there are 32 different variations and they go from
解讀方式，共有32種不同的變化，它們有各種奇怪的名稱，像是吊人線（Hangman）、倒吊線（Inverted Hangman）、
29:09
all kinds of odd names we have the hangman the inverted hangman we have the marabu we have the all kinds of things
我們有烏雲罩頂（Marabu），還有各種各樣的名稱，像是黃昏之星（Evening Stars）、
29:18
out there we have evening Stars morning Stars three crows three soldiers and all of these depict the relationship in
晨星（Morning Stars）、三隻烏鴉（Three Crows）、三兵（Three Soldiers），這些都描述了
29:25
price from one to the next and without learning these okay and devoting the time you're then falely using the
價格從一根K線到下一根K線之間的關係。如果不學習這些並投入時間，你就是在誤用
29:34
Candlestick chart and you're making assumptions based on your lack of knowledge instead of your knowledge so I
K線圖，你是在根據你的無知而非知識來做假設。所以我
29:42
advise all traders to stick with bar charts but the new nice new charts the
建議所有交易員堅持使用條形圖，但新的、漂亮的圖表
29:49
new HTML and Java charts allow you just click a button and move it from candlesticks to bar chart so it doesn't
新的HTML和Java圖表讓你只需點擊一個按鈕，就可以從K線圖切換到條形圖，所以這並沒有
29:55
really make it much of a difference but if you notice to draw a Candlestick chart
太大的差別。但如果你注意到，要畫一根K線
30:03
we put a line across at the open a line across at the close a DOT at
我們在開盤價（Open）畫一條橫線，在收盤價（Close）畫一條橫線，在最高價（High）點一個點
30:10
the High and a DOT at the low and we connect the B the Wicks to the candles
在最低價（Low）點一個點，然後我們將影線（Wicks）連接到燭身
30:17
so what is it o h
所以它是什麼呢？O H（開盤價和最高價）
30:23
l c Step Up bullish step down bearish okay so it's
l c 上漲看漲 下跌看跌 好的 所以它
30:32
just like a bar chart except you have the bodies now once you have the bodies unless you know how to properly read
就像條形圖一樣 只不過你現在有了實體 一旦你有了實體 除非你知道如何正確解讀
30:40
those bodies you're making a mistake if you learn how to use the bodies then you will be much more successful and it will
那些實體 否則你就是在犯錯 如果你學會如何使用實體 那麼你將會成功得多 而且它會
30:48
give you a great understanding of the markets and we have a 3-we course in understanding Japanese candlesticks
讓你對市場有很好的理解 我們有一個為期三週的課程來學習理解日本K線
30:57
so if you want to trade with them come to our course and at least get yourself a grip on what all of these patterns are
所以如果你想用它們交易 來參加我們的課程 至少讓自己掌握所有這些形態是什麼
31:03
and what they should be now it's your choice Forex Trading attracts many different types of Traders with many
以及它們應該是什麼 現在這是你的選擇 外匯交易吸引了許多不同類型的交易者和許多
31:11
different types of systems if you want to trade a currency pair it's best to become as familiar with it as
不同類型的系統 如果你想交易一組貨幣對 最好盡可能熟悉它
31:17
possible if you want to trade a stock it's best to know it inside and out if you want to trade gold or oil
如果你想交易一隻股票 最好對它瞭若指掌 如果你想交易黃金或石油
31:26
it's best to be an expert on gold and oil viewing a currency pair in multiple time frames is part of the process of
最好成為黃金和石油的專家 在多個時間框架下查看一組貨幣對是
31:34
viewing its personality understanding the currency payers personality can help you in your
了解其走勢特性的過程 理解貨幣對的走勢特性可以幫助你
31:41
success of trading so today again because of the ease of charting you can look at the EUR US dollar in a 15minute
交易成功 所以今天 再次 由於圖表繪製的便利性 你可以在15分鐘
31:50
time frame a 30 minute time frame and a 1 hour time frame and compare them now what's the difference the price still
時間框架、30分鐘時間框架和1小時時間框架下查看歐元兌美元 並比較它們 現在有什麼不同 價格仍然
31:56
moves EX exactly the same okay but you can then see what prices or how weak are strong the Bulls
移動得完全一樣 好的 但你可以看到在每15分鐘內 多頭的力道有多強或多弱
32:06
were in every 15 minutes instead of every 30 minutes that's simply the difference you can see more definitively
而不是每30分鐘 這就是簡單的差別 你可以更明確地看到
32:12
how price is moving in the most current segment and it will also give you some comparisons that you might give you
價格在最新的一段時間內是如何移動的 這也會給你一些比較 讓你可能對市場有
32:20
better interpretations of the market now one of the best reasons to learn how to read a chart properly is so
更好的解讀 現在 學習如何正確解讀圖表的最佳原因之一是
32:27
that you can apply technical analysis not every Trader believes in using technical analysis but it can be useful
這樣你就可以應用技術分析 並非每個交易者都相信使用技術分析 但它可能很有用
32:34
even if it's not your primary method of trading technical analysis relies on price that is on the chart you are
即使它不是你主要的交易方法 技術分析依賴於價格 也就是你在圖表上
32:43
using so the more and more information you add to your charts the more successful you will be so no different
使用的資訊 所以你在圖表上添加的資訊越多 你就會越成功 所以這和
32:51
than the maps from my old days when I would use my little you know sketch of a map or remember even today you get an
我過去的日子沒什麼不同 當我會使用我那小小的 你知道的 地圖草圖 或者記得即使在今天 你得到一張
33:00
invitation to a wedding and on the back of it you'll usually get some little sketch you know
婚禮邀請函的背面通常會印有一些小圖示
33:07
a couple lines that'll get you off the highway into the parking lot show you where to park and what building to enter
幾條線指引你從高速公路進入停車場，告訴你該停在哪裡以及要進入哪棟建築物
33:13
okay now it's not detailed but it helps you along the way now the more information you put on these charts like
好，雖然它不夠詳細，但能在過程中幫助你。現在，如果你在圖表上加入更多資訊，就像我說的
33:22
I said my business partner could read them in great detail and we would never get lost going anywhere
我的商業夥伴可以非常詳細地閱讀它們，我們去任何地方都不會迷路
33:29
now look at the we're looking at a road map from London or the London surrounding areas from here we're going
現在看看這張，我們正在看一張從倫敦或倫敦周邊地區出發的公路地圖，我們現在要
33:36
to go over to a complicated chart okay and doesn't it look almost the same the same lines the same with
看向一張複雜的圖表，好吧，這看起來是不是幾乎一樣？同樣的線條，同樣的
33:43
the same all the stuff the same mumbo jumbo that confuses the hell out of you but if you learn to read it successfully
所有東西，同樣那些把你搞得一頭霧水的複雜術語，但如果你學會成功解讀它
33:52
you won't get lost and you can make him as easy or basic as you want or it's clean and the
你就不會迷路，而且你可以讓它變得像你想要的那樣簡單或基本，或者它是乾淨的，而
34:00
thing you'll find is once they're your lines that you put on a chart and you put them the colors you want you put
你會發現的是，一旦這些是你自己畫在圖表上的線，你把它們設定成你想要的顏色，你設定
34:06
them the width you want you put them where you want you'll know what they are you'll understand them you'll understand
它們成你想要的寬度，你把它們放在你想要的位置，你就會知道它們是什麼，你會理解它們，你會理解
34:11
what they represent okay like for instance in this chart which isn't one of my charts it's just one that I put on
它們代表什麼。好吧，舉例來說，在這張圖表中，這不是我的圖表，只是我放在這裡的一張，他們用紫色來
34:16
here they use purple to supp show support and resistance lines I would never use these purple or these Violet
顯示支撐和壓力線，我絕不會使用這些紫色或這些紫羅蘭色的虛線，我用紅色和綠色來表示頂部和底部，我用藍色和金色，好吧，因為這些是我的交易
34:24
Dash lines I use Reds and green for tops and bottoms I use blues and Golds okay because these are my trading
系統，我不使用，你知道的，所以你最終可以學會閱讀別人的，但你會發現當它是你自己的
34:34
systems I don't use you know so you can eventually learn to read somebody else's but you'll find when it's your own
圖表時，你就不會有問題。現在有人說我的圖表沒有顯示，如果你在
34:41
chart you will not have a problem now somebody said my chart is not showing if you're not seeing it on
你的電腦上看不到，意味著你需要重新啟動你的電腦或點擊刷新，因為問題不在我的這邊，而是在你的
34:49
your computer means you need a reboot your computer or click on refresh because it's not on my side it's on your
那邊。現在有許多類型的形態我們可以看到在
34:55
side now there are numerous types of patterns that we can see developing in
圖表中發展，這些是價格走勢，這些在圖表上的走勢會告訴你一些事情，而且它們並不非常
35:03
charts and these are price movements and these movements on a chart tell you something and they're not very
複雜。首先，我們有所謂的三角形，三角形是圖表中基於
35:10
complicated we have first of all what's called triangles triangles are the movement of price in a chart based on a
支撐線和趨勢線的價格移動。現在發生的事情基本上是，如果你理解市場心理學，當我們
35:18
support line and a trend line now what happens is basically if you understand the psychology of the markets is when we
支撐線和趨勢線。現在發生的事情基本上是，如果你理解市場心理學，當我們
35:26
see these prices fitting into this triangle what is telling us is the price and the Bulls and the Bears are pulling
看到這些價格納入這個三角形，這告訴我們的是價格，而多頭與空頭正在拉扯
35:33
in and they're getting to the point when they reach the peak of the triangle that they're going to burst out when they
他們正逐漸接近三角形的頂點，當他們抵達時，將會爆發突破
35:39
burst out once they formed a triangle and they burst out the markets are going to continue in the direction or have
一旦他們形成三角形並爆發突破，市場將會持續朝突破的方向移動，或者具備
35:46
momentum to move in the direction that they burst out what is basically telling is who
往突破方向前進的動能。這基本上是在告訴你誰
35:52
controlled you had this tug of war going on between the Bears and the Bulls the Bears and the Bulls the the Bulls pulled
掌控了局勢。你看到多頭與空頭之間進行著一場拉鋸戰，多頭與空頭，多頭將
35:57
across the river one way the Bulls pulled back the Bears pulled the other way the bull you know how far they moved
繩索拉過河的一邊，多頭拉回來，空頭拉向另一邊，你知道他們在每個方向移動了多遠
36:02
in each Direction who was succeeding you know we see along the way but sooner or later those Bears get tired out now when
誰占了上風，你一路看下來，但遲早那些空頭會筋疲力盡。現在當
36:10
that battle gets fairly even and they start fitting into that Center corner piece sooner or later one of the two
戰鬥變得相當膠著，他們開始納入那個中心角落時，遲早兩方
36:17
sides either going to have a new player join them they're G to have new momentum whatever it is they're going to be able
其中之一將會有新成員加入，他們將會有新的動能，無論如何，當他們拉扯時將能夠
36:24
to pull when they pull and they break out of that pattern they will have strength in that
拉動，而當他們突破那個型態時，他們將在那個
36:30
direction so these are called triangles and you can see these easily on charts now we have a whole course coming
方向具備力量。所以這些被稱為三角形，你可以在圖表上輕易看到。現在我們接下來有一整套關於
36:38
up in chat patterns and charts we also have what's called
型態與圖表的課程，我們還有被稱為
36:44
channels and rectangles again it's simply putting lines on charts that give you
通道與矩形的型態，同樣地，這只是在圖表上畫線，讓你
36:52
some understanding we even have wedges wedges are slightly different than triangles
有所理解。我們甚至還有楔形，楔形與三角形有些許不同
36:58
but they're fairly much like triangles but they're all telling you the story of the Bulls and the Bears and the market
但它們與三角形非常相似，它們都在告訴你多頭與空頭以及市場
37:03
psychology then we come to my favorite and one of the most tradable patterns you hear it you'll hear it all your
心理的故事。接著我們來到我最喜歡，也是你一輩子當交易員會不斷聽到的
37:12
entire life once you're a Trader and that's the head and shoulders sounds funny but it works and it always worked
最具交易價值的型態之一，那就是頭肩頂，聽起來很有趣但它有效，而且一直都很有效
37:18
it is the most when it appears it is one of the most reliable patterns you can
當它出現時，它是最
37:23
get and it means the price moved up above What's called the resistance line
可靠的型態之一，它代表價格上漲超過所謂的
37:31
it came back down and that resistance line supported it this formed the first shoulder now when it's just forming you
阻力線，然後回落，而那條阻力線支撐了它，這形成了第一個肩膀。現在當它剛形成時你
37:38
don't know that yet then it pushed up and came to a new Peak and came back down to what we call the neckline which
還不知道，然後它被推升並達到一個新的高峰，然後回落到我們所說的頸線，也就是
37:46
is the same level here and here well when you have a difference between the Peaks and it forms a head okay now we
這裡和這裡的相同水平。當高峰之間存在差異時，它就形成了一個頭部。好吧，現在我們
37:55
still don't see it yet we bounce back off of that same neckline and we form another Peak and we
還沒看到它，我們從同一條頸線反彈，然後形成另一個高峰，我們
38:02
start coming back down what do we have we have the head and the shoulders and when these align within statistical in
開始回落。我們有什麼？我們有頭肩形態，當這些在統計上
38:10
within 10% it then tells us something and what it tells us is that the asset will then break down and we can also
在10%的範圍內對齊時，它就會告訴我們一些訊息，它告訴我們的是資產將會崩跌，我們也可以
38:18
there's also a formula that you can apply to the degree of the movement to predict where it's going to where your
還有一個公式可以應用於走勢的幅度，以預測它將走向何處，你的
38:25
Target price would be going down and it works 99% of the time now you have to be learn to
目標價格會是多少，而且它99%的時間都有效。現在你必須學會
38:34
identify this formation and when it happens and you have to know how to apply it and that's
識別這種形態以及它何時發生，你必須知道如何應用它，這就是
38:39
why we have classes this but it works and it works regularly it's worked historically okay now the popular head
為什麼我們有課程，但它有效，而且它經常有效，它在歷史上有效過。好吧，現在流行的頭
38:48
and shoulder pattern is essentially a triple top pattern except that instead of the Peaks hitting the same resistance
肩形態本質上是一個三重頂形態，只不過高峰不是觸及相同的阻力
38:54
level the Peaks SL slightly higher than the shoulders okay now we also
水平，而是比肩膀略高。好吧，現在我們也
39:02
have triple tops and triple bottoms and with that's when price moved up hit a certain price fell back off of it Mo
有三重頂和三重底，當價格上漲觸及某個價格後回落，下跌
39:09
fell down to to the same level moved back up hit it again came back down and then hit it again what does it tell you
到同一水平，再回升觸及它，又回落，然後再次觸及它。這告訴你
39:16
about that price so imagine a stock was trading at 3250 and every time it went up to $33 it couldn't get there it would
關於那個價格的什麼？想像一檔股票交易在3250，每次它上漲到33美元時，它都無法到達那裡，它會
39:24
hit it and fall back down to 32 50 the next time it would go up from 3250 get to $33 again and couldn't get through go
觸及它並回落到3250。下一次它會從3250上漲，再次到達33美元，但無法突破，回落
39:32
back down to 3225 we don't care where it went down to the next time it moved up the 32 move started moving up towards
到3225。我們不在乎它回落到哪裡，下一次它移動了32，開始向上移動朝向
39:39
that 32 above 3250 would you think it would be able to break $33 statistically no so $33 becomes a
那個3250上方的32，你認為它能夠突破33美元嗎？從統計上看，不行。所以33美元成為一個
39:48
crucial number now you could have bought that stock at 3250 to Cel it at 33 or when it hit 33 you could decide to enter
關鍵數字。現在你可以在3250買進那檔股票，在33賣出，或者當它觸及33時，你可以決定進場
39:56
the market to sell the market down because it'll most likely go down if it isn't able to break through so this
做空市場，因為如果它無法突破，它很可能會下跌。所以這
40:03
starts giving you some critical ways to make decisions and all of this is based on what's called trend lines trend lines
開始給你一些做出決策的關鍵方法，而這一切都是基於所謂的趨勢線，趨勢線。
40:12
are the rule of the markets the trend is your friend and trend lines are the first piece of information that you
市場的鐵律是「趨勢是你的朋友」，而趨勢線是你在圖表上
40:19
would put on a chart and a trend line requires you to connect
擺放的第一個資訊，繪製趨勢線需要你將
40:25
at least two or more common prices and to draw a line through those prices now too many beginning Traders say I can put
至少兩個或更多相同的價格連接起來，並畫一條線穿過這些價格。太多新手交易者說：我隨時都能在圖表上畫
40:33
trend lines on the chart all the time I can always find prices in common but the fact is trend lines have very specific
趨勢線，我總能找到相同的價格。但事實是，趨勢線有非常明確的
40:41
rules and guidelines because you want to draw your trend line just like the other million Traders around the world because
規則和指導原則，因為你希望畫出的趨勢線能跟全球其他百萬交易者一樣，因為
40:49
you need to know what price is important to the market and what price is important to the psychology of the the
你需要知道什麼價格對市場是重要的，以及什麼價格對市場心理是重要的，
40:57
markets and therefore you start out with the first line you put on your chart setting up the entire market and
因此你從圖表上的第一條線開始，設定整個市場的基調。
41:05
trend lines are one of the most powerful concepts of day trading or long-term investing and they are one of the most
趨勢線是日內交易或長期投資中最強大的概念之一，它們是
41:11
powerful Concepts trend lines have been used for trading as long as there have been markets and they are well suited
最強大的概念之一。自從有了市場，趨勢線就被用於交易，而且它們非常適合
41:18
for any type of market stocks currencies Commodities Futures trend lines are based on the idea that markets move in
任何類型的市場：股票、貨幣、商品、期貨。趨勢線基於市場以
41:24
Trends sustain movement in One Direction and then sustain movement in the opposite trend lines show the general
趨勢移動的概念，先是維持一個方向的運動，然後維持相反方向的運動。趨勢線顯示價格
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direction of the price movement and the strength of the current price movement and where future support and resistance
移動的總體方向、當前價格移動的強度，以及未來支撐和阻力
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are likely to be located trend line show three distinct pieces of information but related pieces of information about the
可能出現的位置。趨勢線顯示關於市場的三個截然不同但相關的資訊：
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market they show direction of the current price movement the strength and that's based on the more precisely the
它們顯示當前價格移動的方向、強度（基於更精確的
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speed the depth of the Trend and where you can expect price to act and
速度）、趨勢的深度，以及你可以預期價格行為和
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react now drawing a trend line is very important so even if you're going to be a fundamental Trader you need to know
反應的位置。現在，繪製趨勢線非常重要，所以即使你打算成為基本面交易者，你也需要知道
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how to read a chart and how to put the first piece of information on there and that's a trend so that you can actually
如何閱讀圖表，以及如何將第一個資訊（也就是趨勢）放在上面，這樣你才能真正
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use it to help your fundamental decisions now it's possible to draw trend lines between any points on the
利用它來輔助你的基本面決策。現在，在圖表上的任何點之間繪製趨勢線是可能的，
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chart and they often look pretty good in fact one of the issues I've had working with newer Traders is that they will say
而且它們通常看起來相當不錯。事實上，我在與新手交易者合作時遇到的問題之一是，他們會
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to me I drew this line and I like it I can draw a line I I can draw any line I want yes of course you can but the
對我說：我畫了這條線，我很喜歡，我可以畫一條線，我可以畫任何我想要的線。是的，當然你可以，但是
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question is and this is what's ultimately important is how you draw your line that is how do you draw a line
問題是，最終重要的是你如何畫線，也就是你如何畫出一條
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that is Meaningful with the respect that will respect the volatility and the Integrity of whatever the trend might be
具有意義的線，同時兼顧趨勢的波動性與完整性
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in effect so we also have a whole 1 hour class called the trend is your friend
因此，我們也有一堂長達一小時的課程，名為「趨勢是你的朋友」
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and we'll teach you in detail all of these rules but the correct way of drawing a trend line is to find What's
我們將詳細教授所有這些規則，但畫趨勢線的正確方法是找出
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called the swing lows and put two points in common and wait you need a third point but you can draw it with two and
所謂的波段低點，標出兩個共通點，等等，你需要第三個點，但你可以先用兩個點畫出來
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then you're waiting for that Trend to be validated by it hitting the third now a lot of times these Trends aren't so
然後等待趨勢透過觸及第三點來獲得驗證。很多時候，這些趨勢線
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close to prices that you want so too many Traders would want to draw a trend line here
距離價格不像你想要的那麼近，所以太多交易者會想在這裡畫一條趨勢線
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and neglect this little downtrend this little breakthrough here and what happens is when you do that your trend
而忽略了這個小幅下降趨勢，以及這裡的這個小幅突破。當你這樣做時，結果就是你的趨勢
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line is no longer accurate so when the price came down here to where this trend line is that price wasn't a price that
線不再準確。所以當價格回落到這條趨勢線的位置時，那個價格並不是
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the markets were interested in in your trend line it was but the fact is this is the trend line that the markets were
市場對你的趨勢線感興趣的價格。但事實是，這才是市場正在關注的趨勢線
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looking at so they were looking for some reaction at this level not at that
所以他們在這個水準尋求某種反應，而不是在那個
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level so you have to learn to follow the rules okay so that you can understand all of this a rule-based trend line is
水準。所以你必須學會遵守規則。好吧，為了讓你理解這一切，基於規則的趨勢線是
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one that starts and stops according to well-defined conditions such as line starting at the lowest price the last
根據明確定義的條件開始和結束的，例如從過去三天的最低價開始，到最高價結束。基於規則的趨勢線優於憑印象畫的趨勢線，原因有三：
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three days and ending at the highest price a rule-based trend line is better than an impressionistic trend line for
它不讓你將個人觀點強加於趨勢應該如何發展；它提升了你的能力與
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three reason it doesn't let you impose your personal view on what the trend should be it improves your ability and
自律，讓你在價格上漲時買進證券，或在價格下跌時賣出；它有助於防止損失
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self-c comess to buy a security when it's pric is rising or selling when the price is falling it helps prevent loss
透過讓你在正確的時間出場。好吧，所以趨勢線對於幫助看清
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by showing you exit at the right time okay so a trend line is crucially
市場反轉或市場即將改變之時至關重要。你可能已經注意到，順勢交易
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important to help see Market reversals or when Tren when the market is about to change you might have noticed that Dr TR
比逆勢交易更強大，因此有了市場的老話：
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trading with a trend is more powerful than trading counter a trend and hence the old the adage of the markets the
「趨勢是你的朋友」。整體而言，逆勢交易是利潤較低的交易，所以你需要更多技巧和
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trend is your friend as a whole counter Trend trades are less profitable trades so you you'll take more skill and
趨勢是你的朋友」。整體而言，逆勢交易是利潤較低的交易，所以你需要更多技巧和
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experience and precision if you trade with the trend you will end up making more Pips and have more successful trade
經驗與精準度，如果你順著趨勢交易，你最終會賺更多點數，並擁有更多成功的交易。
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so experienced Trader doesn't trade against the trend they look to buy into strong up movements and sell into down
所以有經驗的交易者不會逆著趨勢交易，他們尋找在強勁上漲走勢中買入，並在下跌走勢中賣出。
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movements okay because statistically you will make more profit in those trades so what you're looking for is to
走勢，沒錯，因為從統計學上來看，你在這些交易中會賺更多利潤，所以你要尋找的是學習某種對市場的理解、某種系統規則、某種指引，來幫助你。
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learn some type of understanding about the markets some type of system rules some type of guides that will help you
了解價格正在做什麼，再次強調，你可以使用基本面分析，所以當你說當珍妮特·葉倫升息時。
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understand what price is doing again you can use fundamental analysis so when you said when Janet Yellen raised interest
我們知道美元會上漲而黃金會下跌，但美元會漲到哪裡？
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rates we knew the dollar was going to go up and gold was going to go down but how far was the dollar going to go how could
當我在交易美元時，我該如何監控它？或者如果我正在交易黃金下跌，我該如何知道它會跌到哪裡？
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I monitor that dollar when I'm trading it or if I was trading gold to go down how do I know how far it's going to go
我該如何知道要在哪裡設置停損點和獲利了結點？我該如何知道何時該退出市場？
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how do I know where to put my stop loss and my take Profit book how do I know when to exit the market how do I know
我該如何知道它準備好要發生轉變了？而這就來自於技術分析，因此我們今晚完成了技術分析的總體。
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when it's getting ready to make a shift and that comes from technical analysis and therefore we finished our general
指南的開始，如果你到 investing.com 查看課程表，你會看到我們有。
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guide to technical analysis tonight our beginning and if you go to investing.com and look at the schedule you see we have
很多課程能幫助你拆解這門技術分析的學問，你可以在我們的課程中一點一點地學習。
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lots of classes that will help you break down this study of techn and you can learn little bits at a time under our
在月底我們有一堂一小時的課程，內容是基礎圖表，我們只會教你如何閱讀和。
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class the end of the month we have a 1 hour class it's just basic charts we're just going to teach you how to read and
設置你的圖表，如何使用所有電腦化的圖表，如何正確地將指標拖放到你的圖表上，但。
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set up your charts how to use all the computerized charts how to drop the indicators properly on your charts but
我們這個月有 20 堂課程，歡迎參加並學習如何使用技術分析，非常感謝你，祝你。
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we have 20 classes this month come to them and learn how to use technical analysis so thank you very much and have
有美好的一天，也感謝你成為 investing.com 的一員，再見。
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a great day and thank you for being part of investing.com bye now
有美好的一天，也感謝你成為 investing.com 的一員，再見。
