00:00
🎙️
October 10, 2025, Bitcoin sits at an all-time high of $126,000.
2025年10月10日,比特幣達到126,000美元的歷史新高。
00:08
🎙️
Social media is exploding.
社群媒體熱議不斷。
00:10
🎙️
Twitter thread screaming, October is here, TikTok guru saying, this is it, we're going to $150,000.
推特上到處都在喊「十月到了」,TikTok達人說「就是現在,我們要漲到150,000美元」。
00:19
🎙️
Retail traders are piling in.
散戶紛紛湧入。
00:21
🎙️
FOMO is at maximum.
錯失恐懼症達到極致。
00:23
🎙️
Then, the black swan hits.
然後,黑天鵝事件來襲。
00:25
🎙️
Overnight, Bitcoin plunges to $102,000.
一夜之間,比特幣暴跌至102,000美元。
00:30
🎙️
Over $19 billion in long positions liquidated in a single cascade.
超過190億美元的多頭部位在一波清算潮中被平倉。
00:36
🎙️
1.64 million traders wiped out in hours.
164萬名交易者在數小時內爆倉。
00:41
🎙️
So here's the question.
那麼問題來了。
00:42
🎙️
What did retail traders miss?
散戶錯過了什麼?
00:44
🎙️
And more importantly, what did professionals see three days before the crash?
更重要的是,專業人士在崩盤前三天看到了什麼?
00:49
🎙️
The answer wasn't in the news.
答案不在新聞裡。
00:51
🎙️
It wasn't in some secret indicator.
不在某個秘密指標裡。
00:53
🎙️
It wasn't in a paid discord group.
不在付費的Discord群組裡。
00:56
🎙️
It was printed on every single chart in plain sight.
它清清楚楚地顯示在每一張圖表上。
01:01
🎙️
Price structure and volume footprints.
價格結構和成交量足跡。
01:04
🎙️
Most traders look at charts and see random noise.
大多數交易者看著圖表,卻只看到隨機的雜訊。
01:08
🎙️
Candles go up.
K線上漲。
01:09
🎙️
Candles go down.
燭台下跌。
01:10
🎙️
Social media says one thing.
社群媒體說一套。
01:12
🎙️
The chart does another.
圖表卻是另一套。
01:14
🎙️
And somehow, the account just keeps bleeding.
但不知怎地,帳戶卻不斷虧損。
01:17
🎙️
If that's familiar, you're not alone.
如果你對此感到熟悉,你並不孤單。
01:19
🎙️
Because here's what nobody explains clearly enough.
因為這是沒有人解釋得夠清楚的地方。
01:23
🎙️
Price is just the advertisement.
價格只是廣告。
01:26
🎙️
Volume is the transaction.
成交量才是交易。
01:28
🎙️
Price tells you where the market moved.
價格告訴你市場往哪裡移動。
01:31
🎙️
Volume tells you how much money actually moved there.
成交量告訴你實際有多少資金移動到那裡。
01:35
🎙️
If you only watch price, it's like judging a restaurant by its sign outside.
如果你只看價格,就像只憑餐廳的招牌來判斷它。
01:40
🎙️
And never checking if there are any customers inside.
而從不查看裡面是否有顧客。
01:43
🎙️
In this video, I'm going to show you how professional traders read the market on three layers.
在這部影片中,我將向你展示專業交易者如何從三個層面解讀市場。
01:50
🎙️
The market cycle.
市場週期。
01:51
🎙️
Where are we in the story?
我們處於故事的哪個階段?
01:54
🎙️
Smart money tactics.
聰明錢策略。
01:56
🎙️
What play are institutions running?
機構正在執行什麼操作?
01:59
🎙️
Layer three.
第三層。
02:00
🎙️
Volume confirmation.
量能確認。
02:02
🎙️
Is it real?
這是真的嗎?
02:03
🎙️
Or is it manipulation?
還是操縱?
02:05
🎙️
These aren't three separate strategies.
這不是三種獨立的策略。
02:07
🎙️
They're three lenses looking at the same thing.
它們是從三個不同角度看同一件事。
02:10
🎙️
By the end of this video, you won't see random candles anymore.
影片結束時,你將不再看到隨機的K線。
02:14
🎙️
You'll see the heartbeat of the market.
你會看到市場的脈動。
02:15
🎙️
Where institutional money is flowing.
機構資金流向何處。
02:18
🎙️
Where traps are being set.
陷阱正在何處佈局。
02:20
🎙️
And where real opportunities appear.
以及真正的機會在哪裡出現。
02:23
🎙️
This is not financial advice.
這不是財務建議。
02:25
🎙️
This is education in how to read the game before you play it.
這是關於如何在入場前讀懂這場遊戲的教育。
02:29
🎙️
Let's begin.
我們開始吧。
02:30
🎙️
Most traders learn one method and swear it's the only way.
大多數交易者只學一種方法,並堅信那是唯一之道。
02:34
🎙️
Some worship Wyckoff.
有些人崇拜威科夫。
02:36
🎙️
The only true way to read accumulation.
閱讀吸籌的唯一真理。
02:39
🎙️
Others follow smart money concepts.
其他人則追隨智能資金概念。
02:42
🎙️
Everything else is outdated.
其他一切都過時了。
02:43
🎙️
And ICT disciples say only liquidity matters.
而ICT的追隨者則說只有流動性才重要。
02:48
🎙️
Then they argue online about which is right.
然後他們在網上爭論哪種方法才是對的。
02:52
🎙️
Here's what they're all missing.
這就是他們都錯失的重點。
02:54
🎙️
They're describing the same market mechanics from different angles.
他們只是從不同角度描述相同的市場機制。
02:58
🎙️
Think of it like studying anatomy.
想像一下,這就像是研究解剖學。
03:00
🎙️
One doctor looks at the skeleton, the structure, the frame.
一位醫生看骨骼、結構、骨架。
03:04
🎙️
Another doctor looks at the muscles, the movement, the action.
另一位醫生看肌肉、運動、動作。
03:08
🎙️
Another looks at blood flow, the fuel, the energy.
還有一位看血流、燃料、能量。
03:11
🎙️
They're all studying the same body.
他們都在研究同一個身體。
03:14
🎙️
They're just describing different systems.
他們只是在描述不同的系統。
03:16
🎙️
The same is true in trading.
交易也是如此。
03:19
🎙️
Wyckoff taught you cycle phases, the skeleton, the structure.
懷科夫(Wyckoff)教你週期階段、骨骼、結構。
03:24
🎙️
SMC taught you liquidity traps, the tactics, the muscle movement.
SMC 教你流動性陷阱、策略、肌肉運動。
03:29
🎙️
Volume analysis taught you confirmation, the blood flow, the energy.
成交量分析教你確認、血流、能量。
03:34
🎙️
They're all correct because they're describing three layers of the same underlying truth.
它們都是正確的,因為它們描述的是同一潛在真相的三個層面。
03:39
🎙️
Markets don't move randomly.
市場並非隨機波動。
03:42
🎙️
They move in patterns.
它們依循模式運行。
03:44
🎙️
And those patterns repeat because human behavior repeats.
這些模式會重複,因為人類行為會重複。
03:48
🎙️
So instead of choosing one method and rejecting the others, we're going to combine them.
因此,我們不會選擇一種方法而排斥其他方法,而是將它們結合起來。
03:54
🎙️
Layer one, we read the cycle to know where we are in the story.
第一層,我們解讀週期,以了解我們處於故事的哪個階段。
03:59
🎙️
Layer two, we identify the institutional play to know what's being set up.
第二層,我們識別機構操作,以了解正在佈局什麼。
04:04
🎙️
Layer three, we use volume to confirm if it's real or manipulation.
第三層,我們使用成交量來確認它是真實的還是操縱。
04:09
🎙️
Three layers, one truth.
三個層次,一個真相。
04:12
🎙️
Let's break it down.
讓我們來分解一下。
04:13
🎙️
Let's start with layer one, the market cycle.
讓我們從第一個層次,市場週期開始。
04:17
🎙️
Back in the 1930s, a man named Richard Wyckoff spent decades studying how the stock market moved, and he discovered something profound.
回溯到1930年代,一位名叫理查德·威科夫(Richard Wyckoff)的人花了數十年研究股市如何運作,他發現了一些深刻的道理。
04:26
🎙️
Markets don't move randomly.
市場並非隨機波動。
04:29
🎙️
They move in phases, and every single phase follows the same story.
它們以階段性方式波動,每個階段都遵循相同的模式。
04:35
🎙️
Four phases.
四個階段。
04:36
🎙️
Let me show you.
讓我來展示給您看。
04:37
🎙️
Phase one, accumulation.
第一階段:吸籌。
04:40
🎙️
The market is quiet, sideways, boring.
市場平靜、橫盤、無聊。
04:45
🎙️
Most retail traders ignore it because nothing's happening.
大多數散戶交易者會忽略它,因為沒有什麼事情發生。
04:49
🎙️
But behind the scenes, institutions are loading up.
但在幕後,機構正在大量買入。
04:53
🎙️
They're buying quietly, absorbing supply, building their position.
他們悄悄買入,吸收供應,建立倉位。
04:59
🎙️
It's like watching someone pack for a trip.
這就像看著某人打包行李準備旅行。
05:01
🎙️
No excitement yet, but preparation is happening.
還沒有任何刺激,但準備工作正在進行。
05:04
🎙️
Phase two, markup.
第二階段:上漲。
05:07
🎙️
Now the fireworks start.
現在,煙火開始綻放。
05:09
🎙️
Price breaks out.
價格突破。
05:11
🎙️
Retail traders flood in.
散戶交易者蜂擁而入。
05:13
🎙️
FOMO kicks in.
錯失恐懼症(FOMO)開始發作。
05:15
🎙️
Everyone's making money.
所有人都在賺錢。
05:17
🎙️
The news cycles turn bullish.
新聞週期轉為看漲。
05:19
🎙️
Bitcoin to $150,000.
比特幣漲到15萬美元。
05:23
🎙️
The euphoria builds.
狂熱情緒累積。
05:25
🎙️
But here's what retail doesn't see.
但這就是散戶沒看到的地方。
05:27
🎙️
Institutions aren't buying here.
機構在此沒有買進。
05:30
🎙️
They already bought during accumulation.
他們在累積階段就已經買了。
05:33
🎙️
Now they're selling into your euphoria.
現在他們正趁著你的狂熱情緒賣出。
05:37
🎙️
Phase three, distribution.
第三階段,派發。
05:40
🎙️
The market goes sideways again.
市場再次橫盤整理。
05:43
🎙️
But this time, it's not quiet.
但這次,它不安靜。
05:45
🎙️
It's volatile.
波動劇烈。
05:46
🎙️
Fake breakouts.
假突破。
05:48
🎙️
Bull traps.
多頭陷阱。
05:49
🎙️
Price whipsaws up and down.
價格劇烈震盪。
05:52
🎙️
Retail sees another leg up coming.
散戶看到另一波上漲即將到來。
05:55
🎙️
They hold.
他們抱著不放。
05:56
🎙️
They add more.
他們加倉。
05:58
🎙️
Meanwhile, institutions are unloading.
同時,機構正在出貨。
06:00
🎙️
Silently, methodically.
悄悄地,有條不紊地。
06:03
🎙️
And then, phase four, mark down.
然後,第四階段,下跌。
06:08
🎙️
Price plunges.
價格暴跌。
06:09
🎙️
Stop losses cascade.
止損單連鎖觸發。
06:11
🎙️
Liquidations explode.
清算爆炸性增加。
06:14
🎙️
Retail traders are trapped underwater panicking.
散戶交易者被套牢,驚慌失措。
06:18
🎙️
And institutions?
而機構呢?
06:19
🎙️
They're done.
他們結束了。
06:21
🎙️
They're out.
他們退出了。
06:22
🎙️
Watching from the sidelines.
在場邊觀看。
06:24
🎙️
And then the cycle begins again.
然後循環再次開始。
06:27
🎙️
Accumulation.
累積。
06:29
🎙️
Distribution.
分佈。
06:32
🎙️
Four phases.
四個階段。
06:33
🎙️
Over and over.
反覆出現。
06:35
🎙️
In every asset.
在每種資產中。
06:37
🎙️
Every time frame.
每個時間週期。
06:38
🎙️
Every market.
每個市場。
06:40
🎙️
If you know where you are in the cycle, you already know what comes next.
如果你知道自己在週期的哪個位置,你已經知道接下來會發生什麼。
06:44
🎙️
But there's a problem.
但有個問題。
06:46
🎙️
The cycle tells you the structure.
週期告訴你結構。
06:48
🎙️
It doesn't tell you the tactics.
它沒有告訴你策略。
06:50
🎙️
That's where layer two comes in.
這就是第二層的用武之地。
06:53
🎙️
Now let's talk about layer two.
現在我們來談談第二層。
06:55
🎙️
Smart money tactics.
聰明資金的策略。
06:56
🎙️
You know the cycle.
你知道這個週期的。
06:58
🎙️
You know we're in distribution.
你知道我們正處於派發階段。
07:01
🎙️
But how do institutions actually sell billions of dollars without crashing the price immediately?
但機構如何實際賣出數十億美元而不會立即壓垮價格?
07:07
🎙️
They need liquidity.
他們需要流動性。
07:09
🎙️
And they get it by setting traps.
他們透過設置陷阱來獲得流動性。
07:11
🎙️
Here's what that means.
這意味著什麼。
07:12
🎙️
Imagine you're a hedge fund holding 10,000 Bitcoin.
想像一下,你是一家持有 10,000 枚比特幣的避險基金。
07:16
🎙️
If you just market sell it all at once, the price would collapse before you finish selling.
如果你一次性全部市價賣出,在你賣完之前價格就會崩盤。
07:21
🎙️
You'd lose millions.
你會損失數百萬。
07:22
🎙️
So instead, you do this.
所以,你改為這樣做。
07:25
🎙️
You push price up slightly.
你稍微推升價格。
07:28
🎙️
Just enough to trigger stop losses above a key level.
剛好足以觸發關鍵價位上方的止損單。
07:31
🎙️
Just enough to attract retail buyers thinking it's breaking out.
剛好足以吸引散戶買家,讓他們以為正在突破。
07:36
🎙️
Retail sees the breakout.
散戶看到突破。
07:39
🎙️
Their stop losses sit just below the entry point.
他們的止損單設在進場點下方一點。
07:42
🎙️
Step three.
第三步。
07:43
🎙️
You sell into their buy orders.
你賣給他們的買單。
07:45
🎙️
They provide the liquidity you need.
他們提供了你需要的流動性。
07:49
🎙️
Once you've sold enough, you let price fall.
一旦你賣出足夠的量,就讓價格下跌。
07:51
🎙️
Their stop losses trigger, liquidations cascade, and you buy back lower if you want to reload.
他們的止損單被觸發,清算連鎖反應,如果你想重新佈局,就可以在較低價位買回。
07:58
🎙️
This is called a liquidity grab or a bull trap or a stop hunt.
這被稱為流動性獵取,或牛市陷阱,或止損獵殺。
08:04
🎙️
It's not conspiracy.
這不是陰謀。
08:05
🎙️
It's not manipulation in the illegal sense.
這不是非法意義上的操縱。
08:08
🎙️
It's just how big money moves.
這只是大資金的運作方式。
08:11
🎙️
Think of it like fishing.
把它想像成釣魚。
08:12
🎙️
You don't just throw a net randomly into the ocean.
你不會隨便把網丟進海裡。
08:15
🎙️
You find where the fish are.
你會找到魚在哪裡。
08:17
🎙️
You use bait.
你會使用誘餌。
08:20
🎙️
And then you pull.
然後你拉動。
08:21
🎙️
Institutions find where retail stop losses are clustered.
機構會找出散戶停損單聚集的地方。
08:25
🎙️
They bait price into those zones, and they capitalize.
他們會將價格誘入這些區域,然後獲利。
08:29
🎙️
So how do you spot this?
那麼你該如何發現這個情況?
08:30
🎙️
Look for sharp wicks above or below key levels.
尋找關鍵價位上方或下方的尖銳K線。
08:34
🎙️
Look for fake breakouts that immediately reverse.
尋找立即反轉的假突破。
08:37
🎙️
Look for price sweeping liquidity zones, then snapping back.
尋找價格掃過流動性區域後又迅速回抽。
08:42
🎙️
But here's the thing.
但重點是。
08:43
🎙️
You can see the trap being set, but how do you know if it's working?
你可以看到陷阱正在設置,但你怎麼知道它是否奏效?
08:47
🎙️
That's where layer three comes in.
這就是第三層的作用。
08:50
🎙️
Layer three.
第三層。
08:52
🎙️
Volume confirmation.
交易量確認。
08:54
🎙️
This is the truth serum.
這是真相的試金石。
08:56
🎙️
This is what separates real moves from fake moves.
這區分了真實的走勢和虛假的走勢。
09:00
🎙️
Volume tells you how much money actually changed hands at each price level.
交易量告訴你每個價位實際有多少資金易手。
09:05
🎙️
If price moves up, but volume is low, it's weak.
如果價格上漲,但交易量卻很低,那就是弱勢。
09:09
🎙️
It's not backed by conviction.
這沒有得到堅定的支持。
09:11
🎙️
It's probably a trap.
這很可能是一個陷阱。
09:13
🎙️
If price moves up and volume is high, money is flooding in.
如果價格上漲且成交量很高,代表資金正在湧入。
09:18
🎙️
Institutions are involved.
機構法人正在進場。
09:20
🎙️
The move has weight behind it.
這波漲勢有實力支撐。
09:22
🎙️
Think of it like this.
想像一下。
09:23
🎙️
Price is the scoreboard.
價格就像計分板。
09:25
🎙️
Volume is the crowd in the stadium.
成交量就像體育場裡的觀眾。
09:28
🎙️
If the scoreboard says your team is winning, but the stadium is empty, something's wrong.
如果計分板顯示你的隊伍正在贏,但體育場卻空無一人,那就有問題了。
09:34
🎙️
Maybe it's a practice game.
也許是一場練習賽。
09:36
🎙️
Maybe nobody cares.
也許沒人關心。
09:37
🎙️
The scoreboard alone doesn't tell the full story.
單看計分板無法得知全貌。
09:41
🎙️
The same is true in markets.
市場也是如此。
09:43
🎙️
Price breaks above resistance.
價格突破了阻力位。
09:45
🎙️
Looks bullish, right?
看起來看漲,對吧?
09:47
🎙️
But if volume is dropping as price rises, that's a red flag.
但如果價格上漲時成交量卻在下降,那就是一個警訊。
09:52
🎙️
It means fewer and fewer buyers are participating.
這意味著越來越少的買家在參與。
09:56
🎙️
The move is running out of steam.
這波漲勢正在失去動能。
09:58
🎙️
But if price breaks above resistance and volume spikes, that's different.
但如果價格突破阻力位且成交量飆升,那就不一樣了。
10:03
🎙️
That's real demand.
那是真實的需求。
10:05
🎙️
That's institutions moving.
那是機構法人在行動。
10:07
🎙️
That's a move you can trust.
那是一波你可以信任的行情。
10:09
🎙️
Let's go back to October 10, 2025.
我們回到 2025 年 10 月 10 日。
10:12
🎙️
Bitcoin was at $126,000.
比特幣當時是 126,000 美元。
10:16
🎙️
Social media was euphoric.
社群媒體上充滿了狂喜。
10:18
🎙️
Everyone thought it was breaking higher.
每個人都認為它會繼續走高。
10:20
🎙️
But if you looked at the volume, you'd see something chilling.
但如果你觀察成交量,你會看到令人不寒而慄的東西。
10:24
🎙️
For the previous three days, price kept making higher highs.
在過去三天裡,價格不斷創下新高。
10:28
🎙️
But volume kept dropping.
但成交量卻不斷下降。
10:31
🎙️
Each new high had less participation, less money moving, less conviction.
每個新高點的參與度都更低,資金流動更少,信念也更弱。
10:37
🎙️
That's a classic sign of distribution.
這是出貨的經典跡象。
10:41
🎙️
Institutions were selling.
機構正在賣出。
10:43
🎙️
Retail was buying, but the buying was getting weaker.
散戶在買入,但買盤越來越弱。
10:47
🎙️
And then on day four, the crash.
然後在第四天,崩盤了。
10:50
🎙️
If you'd been reading volume, you'd have seen it coming.
如果你一直在關注成交量,你就會預見到這一點。
10:53
🎙️
Not with certainty, but with probability, with awareness.
不是百分之百確定,而是有概率,有警覺性。
10:58
🎙️
And that's the edge, not prediction, preparation.
這就是優勢,不是預測,而是準備。
11:02
🎙️
Okay, let's put all three layers together and walk through October 10, step by step.
好的,讓我們將這三個層面結合起來,一步一步地走過 10 月 10 日。
11:08
🎙️
Layer one, the cycle.
第一層,週期。
11:11
🎙️
Bitcoin had been in markup since July.
比特幣自七月以來一直處於上漲階段。
11:14
🎙️
Months of uptrend, euphoria building, news turning bullish.
連續數月的上升趨勢,不斷增強的狂喜,新聞轉為看漲。
11:19
🎙️
Everyone talking about $150K by Christmas.
每個人都在談論聖誕節前達到 15 萬美元。
11:23
🎙️
But if you look at the Wyckoff cycle, we were clearly entering distribution territory.
但如果你看看 Wyckoff 循環,我們顯然進入了派發區域。
11:29
🎙️
The trend was mature.
趨勢已經成熟。
11:31
🎙️
Exhaustion was setting in.
衰竭開始出現。
11:33
🎙️
Layer two, smart money tactics.
第三層,聰明錢的策略。
11:37
🎙️
On October 3rd, 5th, and 7th, price made three attempts to push price up.
在 10 月 3 日、5 日和 7 日,價格進行了三次向上推升的嘗試。
11:43
🎙️
Each attempt swept liquidity above the previous high.
每次嘗試都掃蕩了前高點上方的流動性。
11:47
🎙️
Each attempt triggered retail buy orders.
每次嘗試都觸發了散戶的買單。
11:50
🎙️
Each attempt gave institutions the liquidity they needed to unload.
每次嘗試都為機構提供了他們需要拋售的流動性。
11:55
🎙️
And notice, each breakout attempt failed within hours.
請注意,每次突破嘗試都在幾小時內失敗。
11:59
🎙️
Price would spike, then fall back.
價格會飆升,然後回落。
12:02
🎙️
That's not bullish strength, that's distribution in action.
這不是看漲的強度,這是派發在起作用。
12:06
🎙️
Layer three, volume.
第四層,成交量。
12:09
🎙️
This is where it gets damning.
這就是問題所在。
12:11
🎙️
October 3rd, Bitcoin hit $123,000.
10 月 3 日,比特幣達到 123,000 美元。
12:15
🎙️
Volume, 24 billion.
成交量,240 億美元。
12:18
🎙️
October 5th, Bitcoin hit $125,000.
10 月 5 日,比特幣達到 125,000 美元。
12:22
🎙️
Volume, 19 billion.
成交量,190 億美元。
12:25
🎙️
October 7th, Bitcoin hit $126,000.
10 月 7 日,比特幣達到 126,000 美元。
12:29
🎙️
Volume, 14 billion.
成交量,140 億美元。
12:32
🎙️
Price going up, volume going down.
價格上漲,成交量下跌。
12:35
🎙️
That's divergence.
這就是分歧。
12:37
🎙️
That's distribution.
這就是派發。
12:38
🎙️
That's institution selling while retail is buying.
這就是機構在賣出,散戶在買入。
12:42
🎙️
And then, the price dropped.
然後,價格下跌了。
12:44
🎙️
Establishing a series of lower lows and lower highs.
形成了一系列更低的低點和更高的低點。
12:48
🎙️
On October 10th, the trap was sprung.
10月10日,陷阱啟動了。
12:51
🎙️
Price spiked to $122,000 one more time.
價格再次飆升至122,000美元。
12:55
🎙️
Then it collapsed.
然後它崩盤了。
12:57
🎙️
$102,000 in six hours.
六小時內跌至102,000美元。
13:00
🎙️
$19 billion in liquidations.
190億美元的清算。
13:03
🎙️
Retail traders who bought the breakout were wiped out.
追逐突破的散戶交易者被清出場。
13:08
🎙️
Institutions who'd been selling for three days were sitting in cash.
連續賣了三天的機構則坐擁現金。
13:13
🎙️
This wasn't luck.
這不是運氣。
13:15
🎙️
This wasn't insider information.
這也不是內幕消息。
13:17
🎙️
This was reading the layers.
這是解讀層次。
13:20
🎙️
Layer one told you were late in the cycle.
第一層告訴你,你已經處於週期的後期。
13:23
🎙️
Be cautious.
要謹慎。
13:24
🎙️
Layer two told you, liquidity grabs are happening.
第二層告訴你,流動性誘捕正在發生。
13:28
🎙️
Traps are being set.
陷阱正在設置。
13:30
🎙️
Layer three told you, volume is declining.
第三層告訴你,成交量正在下降。
13:33
🎙️
The move isn't real.
這個走勢不是真的。
13:35
🎙️
If you'd been watching all three, you wouldn't have been caught.
如果你一直在關注這三層,你就不會被套牢。
13:39
🎙️
You might not have shorted it, but you wouldn't have longed it either.
你可能不會放空它,但你也不會做多。
13:42
🎙️
You'd have been on the sidelines.
你會在一旁觀望。
13:45
🎙️
And that's the skill we're building here.
這就是我們在這裡培養的技能。
13:47
🎙️
Now let's talk about why traders still lose even when they know these concepts.
現在我們來談談為什麼交易者即使知道這些概念,仍然會虧損。
13:52
🎙️
Because knowing isn't enough.
因為光是知道還不夠。
13:55
🎙️
Execution is everything.
執行力才是關鍵。
13:57
🎙️
Mistake one.
錯誤一。
13:58
🎙️
Ignoring the bigger timeframe.
忽略較大的時間週期。
14:00
🎙️
You see a bullish setup on the 15 minute chart.
你在 15 分鐘圖上看到一個看漲的設置。
14:03
🎙️
Volume's good.
成交量不錯。
14:04
🎙️
Structure looks clean.
結構看起來很清晰。
14:06
🎙️
You enter.
你進場了。
14:07
🎙️
But if you'd zoomed out to the four hour chart, you'd see you're buying into a distribution zone.
但如果你放大到 4 小時圖,你會發現你正在買入一個派發區。
14:12
🎙️
You're trading against the bigger cycle.
你正在逆著較大的週期交易。
14:15
🎙️
Always trade with the bigger timeframe, not against it.
永遠順著較大的時間週期交易,而不是逆著它。
14:19
🎙️
Mistake two.
錯誤二。
14:20
🎙️
Letting FOMO override the data.
讓「錯失恐懼症」壓倒了數據。
14:23
🎙️
You see Bitcoin pumping.
你看到比特幣在漲。
14:24
🎙️
Social media's going crazy.
社交媒體上瘋狂討論。
14:26
🎙️
Your group chat is celebrating.
你的群組聊天室在慶祝。
14:28
🎙️
You know the volume is declining.
你知道交易量正在下降。
14:30
🎙️
You know it's late cycle.
你知道這已經是週期的後期。
14:32
🎙️
But you don't want to miss out.
但你不想錯過。
14:34
🎙️
So you enter anyway.
所以你還是進場了。
14:36
🎙️
And then you're holding a losing position, hoping it comes back.
然後你就持有一個虧損的部位,希望它能回升。
14:39
🎙️
The market doesn't care about your emotions.
市場不在乎你的情緒。
14:42
🎙️
It rewards discipline.
它獎勵紀律。
14:44
🎙️
Mistake three.
第三個錯誤。
14:46
🎙️
Overcomplicating the process.
過度複雜化流程。
14:47
🎙️
You start adding 15 indicators.
你開始加入 15 個指標。
14:50
🎙️
You're watching eight time frames.
你觀察八個時間週期。
14:52
🎙️
You're cross referencing divergences, oscillators, moving averages.
你交叉比對背離、震盪指標、移動平均線。
14:57
🎙️
And then you're paralyzed.
然後你就癱瘓了。
14:58
🎙️
Too much data.
數據太多。
15:00
🎙️
No clarity.
沒有清晰度。
15:01
🎙️
No action.
沒有行動。
15:02
🎙️
The best traders keep it simple.
最優秀的交易者會保持簡單。
15:08
🎙️
You don't need a PhD in technical analysis.
你不需要有技術分析的博士學位。
15:11
🎙️
You need clarity on what matters.
你需要清楚什麼是重要的。
15:13
🎙️
So let's talk about how to actually apply this.
那麼,我們來談談如何實際應用這些。
15:15
🎙️
Here's your step by step framework for reading any chart.
這是你閱讀任何圖表的步驟式框架。
15:20
🎙️
Identify the cycle phase.
辨識週期階段。
15:23
🎙️
Is price in a long sideways range?
價格是否處於一個長期的橫盤區間?
15:26
🎙️
That's accumulation or distribution.
那是吸籌或派發。
15:28
🎙️
Is price trending strongly in one direction?
價格是否強勁地朝一個方向趨勢?
15:31
🎙️
That's markup or markdown?
那是上漲或下跌?
15:34
🎙️
Is the trend mature or fresh?
趨勢是成熟還是新鮮?
15:37
🎙️
If it's been running for months, be cautious.
如果已經運行了幾個月,要謹慎。
15:40
🎙️
Start with the daily or four hour chart.
從日線圖或四小時圖開始。
15:42
🎙️
Get the big picture first.
先掌握大局。
15:46
🎙️
Look for liquidity zones.
尋找流動性區域。
15:48
🎙️
Where are the obvious support and resistance levels?
明顯的支撐位和阻力位在哪裡?
15:51
🎙️
Where are stop losses likely clustered?
止損單可能聚集在哪裡?
15:54
🎙️
Institutions love these zones.
機構喜歡這些區域。
15:57
🎙️
They'll push price into them to grab liquidity.
他們會將價格推向這些區域以獲取流動性。
16:00
🎙️
Expect fake breakouts.
預期會出現假突破。
16:02
🎙️
Expect wicks.
預期會出現影線。
16:04
🎙️
Expect traps.
預期會出現陷阱。
16:06
🎙️
Ask yourself, is this move hunting stops or is it genuine momentum?
問問自己,這次走勢是在追逐止損,還是真正的動能?
16:11
🎙️
Step three.
第三步。
16:12
🎙️
Check the volume.
檢查成交量。
16:14
🎙️
If price is making new highs but volume is declining, be skeptical.
如果價格創下新高但成交量正在下降,請保持懷疑。
16:19
🎙️
If price breaks a key level and volume spikes, pay attention.
如果價格突破關鍵水平且成交量飆升,請留意。
16:24
🎙️
If volume is flat during a big move, it's probably not backed by institutions.
如果在大幅波動期間成交量持平,那可能沒有機構支持。
16:30
🎙️
Volume is your confirmation layer.
成交量是你的確認層。
16:32
🎙️
It's what tells you if the move is real.
它告訴你這次走勢是否真實。
16:36
🎙️
Wait for alignment.
等待一致性。
16:38
🎙️
Don't trade unless all three layers agree.
除非所有三個層面都達成一致,否則不要交易。
16:41
🎙️
Cycle says, we're in early markup, bullish context.
週期顯示,我們正處於早期上漲階段,看漲背景。
16:46
🎙️
Liquidity says, we just swept a low and bounced.
流動性顯示,我們剛掃清一個低點並反彈。
16:50
🎙️
Trap cleared.
陷阱已清除。
16:52
🎙️
Volume says, spike on the bounce.
成交量顯示,反彈時出現成交量飆升。
16:54
🎙️
Real demand.
真實需求。
16:56
🎙️
That's when you enter.
那就是你進場的時機。
16:58
🎙️
When all three layers point the same direction.
當所有三個層面都指向同一個方向時。
17:01
🎙️
If they don't align, you wait.
如果它們不一致,你就等待。
17:04
🎙️
Patience is the edge.
耐心是你的優勢。
17:06
🎙️
This framework won't make you rich overnight, but it'll keep you out of bad trades.
這套框架不會讓你一夜致富,但它會讓你避免糟糕的交易。
17:11
🎙️
And in trading, not losing is winning.
而在交易中,不虧損就是獲利。
17:14
🎙️
Let me be clear about something.
讓我澄清一件事。
17:16
🎙️
This approach doesn't predict the future.
這種方法無法預測未來。
17:19
🎙️
Nothing does.
沒有任何東西可以。
17:20
🎙️
Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic.
市場是機率性的,而非決定性的。
17:24
🎙️
That means you can read the cycle perfectly.
這意味著你可以完美地解讀週期。
17:27
🎙️
You can spot the liquidity trap.
你可以發現流動性陷阱。
17:30
🎙️
You can see volume divergence and the trade can still lose.
你可以看到成交量背離,而交易仍然可能虧損。
17:33
🎙️
But here's the difference.
但這就是區別所在。
17:36
🎙️
When retail traders lose, they don't know why.
當散戶交易者虧損時,他們不知道為什麼。
17:39
🎙️
They feel helpless.
他們感到無助。
17:41
🎙️
They blame manipulation or bad luck.
他們歸咎於市場操縱或運氣不佳。
17:44
🎙️
When professional traders lose, they know why.
當專業交易員虧損時,他們知道原因。
17:47
🎙️
They had a reason to enter.
他們有進場的理由。
17:49
🎙️
The probabilities were in their favor.
機率對他們有利。
17:52
🎙️
But probabilities aren't certainties.
但機率並非必然。
17:54
🎙️
They accept the loss and move on.
他們接受虧損並繼續前進。
17:57
🎙️
Trading is about process, not outcomes.
交易關乎過程,而非結果。
18:00
🎙️
If you follow the process, read the cycle, spot the tactics, confirm with volume, you'll be right more often than you're wrong.
如果你遵循流程、解讀週期、辨識策略、並以成交量確認,你正確的次數將多於錯誤的次數。
18:09
🎙️
You won't win every trade.
你不會贏得每一筆交易。
18:11
🎙️
No one does.
沒有人能做到。
18:12
🎙️
But you'll have an edge.
但你將擁有優勢。
18:14
🎙️
And over time, an edge compounds.
隨著時間推移,優勢會累積複利。
18:17
🎙️
Don't chase perfection.
不要追求完美。
18:18
🎙️
Chase consistency.
追求一致性。
18:20
🎙️
Trust the process.
相信流程。
18:23
🎙️
Learn from your mistakes.
從錯誤中學習。
18:25
🎙️
And slowly, the market will start making sense.
慢慢地,市場將開始變得有意義。
18:27
🎙️
So where do you go from here?
那麼,接下來該怎麼辦?
18:30
🎙️
So here's where we are.
那麼,我們目前的情況就是這樣。
18:31
🎙️
You've learned the three layers.
您已學會這三層。
18:33
🎙️
Cycle, liquidity, volume.
週期、流動性、成交量。
18:36
🎙️
You've seen how they work together.
您已了解它們如何協同運作。
18:38
🎙️
You've walked through a real world case study.
您已探討過一個實際案例。
18:42
🎙️
You've learned the common mistakes and how to avoid them.
您已學會常見錯誤以及如何避免。
18:45
🎙️
You now have a framework, not a crystal ball, a framework.
您現在擁有的是一個框架,不是水晶球,是一個框架。
18:51
🎙️
And that's all you need.
這就是您所需要的一切。
18:52
🎙️
Because trading isn't about knowing the future.
因為交易並非關乎預知未來。
18:54
🎙️
It's about reading probabilities and acting with discipline.
而是關於解讀機率並嚴守紀律地行動。
18:59
🎙️
And if you found this valuable, consider subscribing.
如果您覺得這有價值,請考慮訂閱。
19:02
🎙️
I create educational content like this every week.
我每週都會製作像這樣的教育內容。
19:07
🎙️
No secret signals.
沒有獨家訊號。
19:09
🎙️
Just deep breakdowns of how the market actually works.
只有深入剖析市場實際運作的方式。
19:13
🎙️
The goal isn't to become a fortune teller.
目標不是成為預言家。
19:15
🎙️
The goal is to become a reader.
目標是成為一名判讀者。
19:18
🎙️
To see the heartbeat of the market.
看清市場的脈動。
19:20
🎙️
Where money is flowing.
資金流向何處。
19:21
🎙️
Where traps are being set.
陷阱正在何處佈設。
19:23
🎙️
Where real opportunities appear.
真正的機會在何處出現。
19:26
🎙️
You don't need luck.
你不需要運氣。
19:27
🎙️
You need clarity.
你需要清晰度。
19:29
🎙️
Thanks for watching.
感謝您的收看。
19:30
🎙️
See you in the next one.
我們下集再見。