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The Ultimate Technical Analysis Trading Course (For Beginners)
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00:00
hey hey what's up my friends so welcome to the ultimate technical analysis trading course for beginners and here's
嘿嘿 大家好 歡迎來到終極初學者技術分析交易課程 這裡是
00:07
a true story when i first started the financial markets i wasn't a technical trader i was actually more of
一個真實的故事 當我剛踏入金融市場時 我並不是一個技術交易者 我其實比較偏向
00:11
a fundamentals guy i was trying to emulate warren buffett to find the next stock
基本面分析 我當時試圖效仿沃倫·巴菲特 尋找下一檔
00:16
that i can hold for the next 30 40 years and as a fundamentals person right what i realized is that
我可以持有30、40年的股票 而作為一個基本面分析者 對吧 我意識到的是
00:22
by the time the fundamentals of a stock has turned bad or sour i would have lost a huge chunk of money
當一檔股票的基本面變差或變壞時 我通常已經損失了
00:27
already so that kind of you know led me to find something else and that's where i got introduced to technical
一大筆錢 這就是為什麼 讓我去尋找其他的東西 而這就是我接觸到
00:31
analysis because it's more faster in that sense so when i entered the world of technical analysis
技術分析的契機 因為在某種意義上它更快速 當我進入技術分析的領域
00:36
i was overwhelmed because there's just so much information out there you know you've got indicators support resistance
時 我感到不知所措 因為外面的資訊實在太多了 你知道的 你有指標 支撐位 阻力位
00:42
chart patterns candlestick patterns rsi mainly pivot points you know where where do you even begin you know what should
圖表型態 K線型態 RSI 主要是樞紐點 你知道的 你到底要從哪裡開始 你知道你應該
00:47
you focus on so it's after years of trial and error researching right then i realized that
專注於什麼 所以經過多年的試錯和研究 對吧 我才意識到
00:52
less is more when it comes to trading so this is why in today's training okay i want to shortcut your learning
在交易方面 少即是多 這就是為什麼在今天的培訓中 我想縮短你的學習
00:57
curve i don't want you to go through the same you know misery that i went through with
曲線 我不希望你經歷我當初在
01:01
technical analysis so here's what you'll learn in today's training number one why
技術分析上所經歷的同樣痛苦 所以以下是今天培訓你將學到的 第一 為什麼
01:05
95 of traders lose money with technical analysis and how you can avoid it number two how to know when to buy sell
95%的交易者在使用技術分析時虧錢 以及你該如何避免 第二 如何知道何時買進 賣出
01:12
or stay out of the markets number three how to identify the best levels to trade so you can find
或遠離市場 第三 如何識別最佳的交易水準 這樣你就能找到
01:17
low risk and high reward trading opportunities number four how to avoid jumping into
低風險高回報的交易機會 第四 如何避免過早
01:23
trades too early so you can avoid unnecessary losses number five when to take profits before
跳入交易 這樣你就能避免不必要的損失 第五 何時在
01:28
the market turns against you and wipe out right all your open profits and you hate to watch
市場逆轉並抹去你所有未平倉利潤之前獲利了結 而你最不想看到的
01:34
you know your your trade right you know going to the moon after you exit the trade then you
就是看著你的交易在你出場後一飛沖天 然後你
01:38
know i'm going to share with you this one technique that you can implement right that
知道 我將與你分享一個你可以立即實施的技巧 對吧 那個
01:41
prevents that from happening and along the way i'll share with you a ton of charts
防止這種情況發生,過程中我也會跟大家分享大量的圖表
01:45
examples and much much more sounds good then let's get started
範例以及更多內容,聽起來不錯,那我們就開始吧
01:54
so my definition of technical analysis is this right technical analysis is using past data like chart patterns
所以我對技術分析的定義是這樣的:技術分析是利用過去的數據,像是圖表型態
02:00
candlestick patterns volume indicators etc to help you make a trading decision and before we
K線型態、成交量指標等等,來協助你做出交易決策。而在
02:05
dive deeper into technical analysis which is what this training is all about i want you to
我們深入探討技術分析(也就是這次教學的重點)之前,我希望你
02:09
be aware of two mistakes right that many traders make many losing traders
能意識到許多交易者常犯的兩個錯誤,沒錯,許多虧損的交易者
02:14
make this mistake number one they add too many indicators tools right to their charts because
都會犯這個錯誤。第一,他們在圖表上添加了太多的指標工具,
02:19
it makes them look like a professional trader but here's the thing if you have a chance
因為這讓他們看起來像個專業交易者。但問題是,如果你有機會
02:23
to look at the screens the monitor of you know pro traders you realize that their charts are
看到專業交易者的螢幕或顯示器,你會發現他們的圖表
02:28
actually quite empty they have tools on it right but it's not a lot it's usually relatively little
其實相當乾淨。他們上面有工具,沒錯,但不多,通常相對較少
02:33
compared to new traders who just got started in trading in the end the moving average rsi maybe you know make the
相比之下,剛踏入交易領域的新手,最後加上移動平均線、RSI,也許讓
02:38
charts looks also complicated thinking you know it makes them look like you know a real
圖表看起來也很複雜,心想這樣能讓自己看起來像個
02:42
trader but that's usually no further away from the truth okay so the reason why you want to add too much
真正的交易者,但這通常離事實非常遙遠。好吧,所以你之所以想在圖表上添加太多
02:47
tools to your chart is because you will get analysis paralysis you will get conflicting
工具,是因為你會陷入分析癱瘓(analysis paralysis),你會得到互相衝突的
02:51
information and you will feel overwhelmed all right it's like you know having too many chefs to make one soup
資訊,而且你會感到不知所措。這就像廚師太多反而壞了一鍋湯
02:56
you have too many chef each one add their own flavor their own spice their own twig to the soup the soup is gonna
廚師太多,每人各加自己的風味、自己的香料、自己的枝枝葉葉到湯裡,湯的味道
03:00
taste like crap and it's the same for your trading if you add too much stuff
會變得很難喝。交易也是一樣,如果你在圖表上加太多東西
03:04
to your charts right you will hurt your own trading results mistake number two you don't have a
你會害慘自己的交易結果。第二個錯誤,你沒有
03:10
framework to work with so i know this sounds a bit fake so let me explain so let me ask you let's say you know you
一套框架可以依循。我知道這聽起來有點虛,讓我解釋一下。讓我問你,假設你想
03:15
want to build a house how would you go about doing it will you just you know go out there to
蓋一棟房子,你會怎麼做?你會不會就這樣跑出去
03:19
like you know a store and let me buy a toilet boat because i need i need a toilet bowl for my house
就像你去商店,讓我買一個馬桶,因為我需要一個家裡的馬桶
03:23
oh here's a sofa let me buy a sofa oh i need a bait let me buy a bait and you go back home
喔這裡有沙發,讓我買一張沙發,喔我需要一個餌,讓我買一個餌,然後你回家
03:27
you put your bed down here you put your sofa you plant a toilet somewhere beside your bed
你在這裡放下你的床,你放下你的沙發,你在床旁邊某處放一個馬桶
03:31
and you know just like this i hope not right because that if that's what you're doing you will
而你知道就像這樣,我希望不是這樣,因為如果你是這樣做,你將
03:37
live right in a pretty done ugly house so what most people will do is they have a blueprint they have someone to design
住在一個非常難看的房子裡,所以大多數人會做的是他們有一個藍圖,他們有人來設計
03:43
right the framework the layout of their house maybe if it's a three-story house
對,房子的框架、格局,也許如果是三層樓的房子
03:47
the first story could be building a kitchen on the first floor then maybe have a living room in a guest
第一層可能是建一個廚房在第一層,然後也許在第一層有客廳和客房
03:53
room on the first floor so this is where you kind of play and entertain yourself and cook
所以這是你可以玩樂、娛樂自己和烹飪的地方
03:57
just for the first floor of the house second floor could be where you're resting so you have more bedrooms maybe
就房子的第一層而言,第二層可能是你休息的地方,所以你有更多臥室,也許
04:01
five to six bedrooms on the second floor you have more beds you have toilets right so you don't have to wake up
第二層有五到六間臥室,你有更多床,你有馬桶,對,所以你不必在半夜
04:06
middle of the night and walk 50 meters to your toilet and stuff like that and maybe the third
起床走50公尺去你的廁所之類的,也許第三層
04:09
floor is your home office or your main cave or whatsoever you have all the latest technology entertainment
是你的家庭辦公室或你的主要基地,無論如何,你在第三層有所有最新的科技娛樂
04:14
on the third floor and this is how you would go about you know building your house you have a framework
這就是你建造房子的方式,你有一個框架
04:18
something to refer to right to help you you know make your purchase decision so you know where you know
一些可以參考的東西,對,來幫助你做購買決定,所以你知道東西會在哪裡
04:23
things will be and this is the same for trading you must have a framework
交易也是如此,你必須有一個框架
04:28
okay so so this right will be core right to today's entire training because the
好,所以這將是今天整個培訓的核心,因為
04:32
framework that matters right is this there are only four parts to it very simple but i'm gonna dive deep
重要的框架是這個,它只有四個部分,非常簡單,但我會深入探討
04:37
into each and every single part number one market structure this right is in
每一個部分,第一個,市場結構,這本質上是
04:42
essence right trying to find out what is the current market condition so you know what to do
試圖找出目前的市場狀況是什麼,所以你知道該怎麼做
04:46
for example if you know the market condition is in an uptrend then you look for buying opportunities if the market
例如,如果你知道市場狀況處於上升趨勢,那麼你就尋找買入機會,如果市場
04:51
condition is in a downtrend then you look for selling opportunities so don't worry i'll dive deep into this
當趨勢向下時,你就尋找賣出機會,別擔心,稍後我會深入探討這一點
04:56
aspect later on second part is area of value so just because a market
第二部分是價值區,僅僅因為市場
05:00
is trending doesn't mean you want to blindly hit the buy button because the market could be overbought right and
處於趨勢中,並不意味著你想盲目地按下買入鍵,因為市場可能已經超買,對吧?
05:05
about to make a reversal or a pullback so this is where you want to identify areas of value right where
即將反轉或回檔,所以這就是你想識別價值區的地方,對吧,在那裡
05:10
you can find a low risk entry to enter a trade in essence right you're trying to find out
你能找到低風險的入場點來進行交易,本質上,對吧?你試圖找出
05:14
where on the chart right should you buy or sell the third thing entry trigger this
在圖表上的哪裡,對吧?你應該買進或賣出。第三件事是入場觸發點,這
05:19
answers the question when exactly do you buy yourself when exactly what is the thing right that would
回答了「你究竟何時買進」這個問題,究竟是什麼東西,對吧?會
05:24
trigger you to get into a trade and finally once you're once you're in a trade right you must also plan your
觸發你進入一筆交易。最後,一旦你,一旦你進入一筆交易,對吧?你也必須規劃你的
05:30
exits what if the market moves in your favor where will you take profits what if the market moves
出場。如果市場對你有利,你將在哪裡獲利了結?如果市場
05:35
against you where will you cut your loss so in essence this is the framework right that we will be
對你不利,你將在哪裡止損?所以本質上,這就是我們稍後將會
05:40
learning more later and for now let's do a quick recap number one technical analysis is simply
更深入學習的框架。現在,讓我們快速複習一下。第一,技術分析只是
05:46
using past data to help you make a trading decision you must have a framework to work with
利用歷史數據來幫助你做出交易決策。你必須有一個框架來運作,
05:51
if not you'll be lost right like you know blindly you know building your home right if you
如果沒有,你會迷失方向,對吧?就像你盲目地,你知道的,蓋你的房子一樣,如果你
05:55
don't have a framework you don't have a blueprint you will get lost you will get confused
沒有框架,你就沒有藍圖,你會迷失,你會感到困惑,
05:58
and you will you know have a horrible looking house right so if you don't want that
然後你會蓋出一間,你知道的,看起來很糟糕的房子,對吧?所以如果你不想那樣,
06:02
start with a framework and the framework that i've shared with you is using market structure
就從一個框架開始,而我與你分享的這個框架是:利用市場結構、
06:06
identifying your area of value defining your entry trigger and then planning your exits so in the
識別你的價值區、定義你的入場觸發點,然後規劃你的出場。所以在
06:12
later section right we will dive deep into each of this component within the
稍後的章節,對吧?我們將深入探討這個框架中的每一個組成部分。
06:17
framework so let's get started now in the next section you will learn how
所以讓我們現在開始。在下一個章節,你將學習如何
06:23
to use technical analysis to define the current market condition so you know whether to be buying
利用技術分析來定義當前的市場狀況,這樣你就知道該買進還是賣出。
06:29
selling or staying out of the markets so let's move on so let's talk about market structure so
賣出或退出市場,那麼我們繼續,我們來談談市場結構,所以
06:40
market structure seeks to answer this question what to do right what should you do in
市場結構旨在回答這個問題:該怎麼做?在
06:45
different market conditions should you be looking for buying opportunities selling
不同的市場情況下,你應該尋找買入機會、賣出
06:48
opportunities or to stay out of the markets so the way this works is that market
機會,還是應該退出市場?市場結構的運作方式是
06:53
structure it helps you to define the current market condition so you know whether to be buying
它幫助你界定當前的市場狀況,讓你知道是否應該買入、
06:58
selling or staying out of the markets makes sense so how do you identify right market
賣出或退出市場是合理的。那麼,要如何識別市場
07:04
structure or if you want to phrase it right how do you identify the current market condition
結構?或者如果你想換個說法,要如何識別當前的市場狀況?
07:08
well to do it right there are two techniques i want to share with you and bear in mind there are
要做到這一點,有兩種技巧我想和大家分享,請記住,有
07:12
more than two ways to do this but i just want to share with you two useful techniques because if i share
不止兩種方法可以做到這一點,但我只想和大家分享兩種有用的技巧,因為如果我分享
07:17
with you too many techniques you get overwhelmed get confused and you give up so i'll
太多技巧,你會不知所措、感到困惑然後放棄。所以我只會
07:21
just share with you two useful ones number one candlestick chart and number two
和大家分享兩個有用的技巧:第一是K線圖,第二是
07:26
moving average so let's have a look at this too right in more details so first and foremost let's talk about
移動平均線。讓我們更詳細地看看這兩者。首先,讓我們談談
07:32
candlestick chart what exactly is this so candlestick chart is a method of reading a price chart so it's not the
K線圖,這到底是什麼?K線圖是一種解讀價格圖表的方法,但它不是
07:39
only way to read a price chart you can use things like bar chart renko chart etc but we'll
解讀價格圖表的唯一方式,你也可以使用像條形圖、Renko圖等,但我們在
07:44
stick to candlestick chart for this this training and a candlestick chart it consists of
這次的培訓中將堅持使用K線圖。K線圖由
07:48
individual candlestick patterns so candlestick patterns is something that you
個別的K線形態所組成。K線形態是
07:52
are probably familiar with it looks something like this this is one candlestick pattern could
你可能很熟悉的東西,它看起來像這樣。這是一個K線形態,可能
07:57
have a little bit of upper shadow and lower shadow sometimes this could even be you know let's say
有一點上影線和下影線,有時它甚至可能是,你知道的,假設
08:02
a darker color one could be like let's say in this case black color or even red to signal uh lower close right
一個深色的,可能是像在這種情況下的黑色,甚至是紅色,以表示收盤價走低,對吧?
08:08
something like this so this is what we mean by candlestick pattern so a candlestick chart
像這樣。這就是我們所說的K線形態。所以,K線圖
08:13
consists of many individual candlestick patterns so it's just like a forest consists of many individual trees
由許多個別的K線圖型組成,就像森林由許多樹木組成一樣
08:20
so we will talk more about candlestick patterns later on but for now this is kind of
我們稍後會再深入討論K線圖型,但現在這可以說是
08:23
like the macro the big picture i want to share with you how do you actually use
一種宏觀的、大方向的概念,我想與大家分享如何實際運用
08:27
candlestick chart to identify the market structure so first thing first right identifying
K線圖來辨識市場結構。所以首先,使用K線圖辨識市場結構
08:34
market structure using candlestick chart so there are three types of market structure you want to pay attention to
有三種市場結構是你需要注意的
08:39
number one is an uptrend this consists of series of higher highs and higher lows so it looks something
第一是上升趨勢,由一系列的更高高點和更高低點組成,看起來像這樣
08:44
like this price hits higher makes a pullback breaks out higher makes a pullback
價格上漲後回檔,再突破上漲,然後又回檔
08:49
and then breaks out higher so when you take a step back and look at this you can see a series of higher high
接著再次突破上漲。當你退一步看,可以看到一系列的更高高點
08:55
higher high and higher low higher low make sense so this is what we call an uptrend next one we have what we call a
更高高點,以及更高低點、更高低點,明白嗎?這就是我們所說的上升趨勢。接下來是
09:02
downtrend so this is in essence the opposite the price is heading lower over time so
下降趨勢,本質上正好相反,價格隨著時間下跌
09:08
down it makes a pullback heads down lower makes a pullback heads down lower so if you look at this
下跌後回檔,再往下走低,又回檔,再往下走低。如果你看這個
09:13
big picture-wise you see a series of lower high lower high and lower low lower low
從大方向看,你看到一系列的更低高點、更低高點,以及更低低點、更低低點
09:19
and finally we have what we call a range market this is where the price is contained between the highs
最後是我們所說的區間市場,價格在高點和低點之間波動
09:24
and the lows kind of like getting stuck in a box so let's say price goes up comes back down
就像被困在盒子裡一樣。假設價格上漲後拉回
09:30
goes up comes back down goes up comes back down so you can see that it's stuck between these highs
上漲後拉回,上漲後拉回。你可以看到它卡在這些高點
09:34
and this lows and this is what we call a range market so let me share with you a few chart examples right so you know
和低點之間,這就是我們所說的區間市場。讓我分享幾個圖表範例,讓你們知道
09:41
what we are talking about so first one here this is the chart of s p 500.
我在說什麼。首先是這個,這是S&P 500的圖表
09:47
let me ask you what is this market structure well i hope you can see that this is a
讓我問你,這是什麼市場結構?我希望你能看出這是
09:52
uptrend why is it an uptrend because you see a series of higher lows higher low higher low higher low and
上升趨勢。為什麼是上升趨勢?因為你看到一系列的更高低點:更高低點、更高低點、更高低點,以及
09:58
higher high higher high higher high higher high next one what about this platinum so i
更高高點、更高高點、更高高點、更高高點。下一個,白金的走勢如何?我
10:05
just want you to pay attention to this chart is this in an uptrend a downtrend or
只希望您注意這張圖表,這是上升趨勢、下降趨勢還是
10:10
range so one tip that i have for you is that if you are not sure
盤整區間?所以我想給您一個小提示,如果您不確定
10:13
take five feet away from your computer just walk five feet back look at the chart right and ask yourself
就從電腦後退五英尺,往後走五英尺再看圖表,然後問自己
10:20
is the chart moving higher or lower or it's going nowhere so if you look from left to right i'm
圖表是在往上走、往下走,還是根本沒在動?所以如果您從左往右看,我
10:26
sure you can agree that this market which is platinum on the daily time frame it's heading higher over time
相信您會同意,這個市場(日線圖上的白銀)隨著時間是 heading higher over time
10:32
from left to right and if you look at the more granular details you see a series of higher low higher
從左往右,如果您觀察更細節的部分,您會看到一系列的 higher low(更高的低點)、higher
10:38
low higher low higher low high low higher high higher high higher high
low、higher low、higher low、high low、higher high(更高的高點)、higher high、higher high
10:42
high high of course i didn't draw every higher highs and lows on this chart the main thing is just to pay attention
higher high。當然我沒有在圖表上畫出所有的 higher highs 和 lows,重點是要注意
10:47
to the major swing points right and see whether is it heading up higher lower or you know just start getting
主要的波動點(swing points),然後看看它是往上走、往下走,還是您知道的,開始變成
10:52
nowhere what we call a range market another example dollar against the norwegian chrono so what we can do is go
無法前進,我們稱之為區間市場(range market)。另一個例子是美元對挪威克朗(Norwegian krone),所以我們可以做的是去
10:59
use this uh this platform using is called trading view you can click reset a chart and just
使用這個呃,這個叫做 TradingView 的平台,您可以點擊重設圖表,然後
11:03
zoom in i mean zoom out a little bit and then ask yourself hmm is this market hitting higher or lower over time
放大,我是說稍微縮小一點,然後問自己,嗯,這個市場隨著時間是 hitting higher 還是 lower?
11:10
so we can see series of lower low sorry lower high lower high low high lower low lower low
所以我們可以看到一系列的 lower low(更低的低點),抱歉,lower high(更低的高點)、lower high、low high、lower low、lower low
11:16
lower low we can see that this market is heading down lower it's in a downtrend and since the market let's say
lower low。我們可以看到這個市場正在 heading down lower(往下走),它處於下降趨勢中,既然市場,假設
11:22
it's in a downtrend what do you want to be doing i hope you are looking for
它處於下降趨勢中,您希望做什麼?我希望您正在尋找
11:27
selling opportunities why selling opportunities because this is the path of least
賣出機會(selling opportunities)。為什麼是賣出機會?因為這是阻力最小的路徑(path of least resistance),
11:31
resist resistance because if you know a market has been heading down lower over the last few months there's a good
因為如果您知道一個市場在過去幾個月一直在往下走,那麼它很有可能
11:35
chance that it will continue heading down lower so you look for selling opportunities
會繼續往下走,所以您要尋找賣出機會。
11:40
likewise if you see a market that's for example this s p 500 heating up higher over the last few
同樣地,如果您看到一個市場,例如這個 S&P 500 在過去幾個
11:47
months or even the last few years then you want to look for buying opportunities because this market is
月甚至過去幾年一直在 heating up higher(上漲),那麼您就要尋找買入機會,因為這個市場是
11:51
likely to continue higher and you can see this is why we want first and foremost
可能會持續走高,你可以看到這就是為什麼我們首先想要
11:55
want to define the current market condition so we know what to do to look for buying opportunities selling
定義當前的市場狀況,這樣我們就知道該如何尋找買入機會、賣出
12:00
opportunities or to stay out of the markets if it's something that we we don't want to trade
機會,或者如果市場狀況是我們不想交易的
12:04
we're not comfortable with so have a look at another example this one again uh uk 10-year guild
我們感到不適,就選擇離場。那麼,再來看另一個例子,這是英國10年期公債
12:10
if you look at this chart is this in an uptrend downtrend or range so look from left to right you
如果你看這張圖,這是處於上升趨勢、下降趨勢還是區間震盪?從左到右看
12:16
can see this market making a series of lower high lower high lower high and lower low lower low lower low okay
你可以看到這個市場形成了一系列的更低高點、更低高點、更低高點,以及更低低點、更低低點、更低低點。好的
12:22
now let's move on into something different how about pound canadian now this is this in an uptrend downtrend
現在讓我們轉到一個不同的品種,英鎊兌加元怎麼樣?這是上升趨勢、下降趨勢
12:28
or range it's a uptrend i'm just kidding i'm just kidding right so is it a range market
還是區間震盪?這是上升趨勢,我開玩笑的,我開玩笑的啦。所以,這是區間震盪市場
12:33
right why is this a range market again range market is where the price is contained between the highs and the low
對吧?為什麼這又是區間震盪市場?區間震盪市場指的是價格被限制在高點和低點之間
12:38
so it's contained between these highs over here and this lows over here so one thing to
所以它被限制在這裡的高點和這裡的低點之間。所以有一點要
12:43
point out is that this is not an exact level on the chart you should treat this as an
指出的是,這在圖表上並不是一個精確的水平線,你應該將其視為一個
12:47
area so if it helps you can use tools like a rectangle tool to draw this as an area like this or maybe even
區域。所以,如果這樣有幫助,你可以使用像矩形工具這樣的工具來將其繪製成一個像這樣的區域,或者甚至在
12:54
another one over here so this way you can treat this like an area on your chart
這裡再畫一個。這樣你就可以將其視為圖表上的一個區域
12:58
and this is another area on your chart between the highs and the lows and this is where we call this market
這是圖表上高點和低點之間的另一個區域,而這就是我們稱之為
13:03
or we treat this market as a range market contained between the highs and the lows so one more example before
或我們將此市場視為區間震盪市場的地方,價格被限制在高點和低點之間。所以在
13:09
we move on this one here silver is this in a range market or an uptrend so if you
我們繼續之前,再來看一個例子,這是白銀。這是處於區間震盪市場還是上升趨勢?所以如果你
13:16
look at the chart right as it is right now i would say that this is in the range market this
看目前的圖表,我會說這是處於區間震盪市場。這個
13:20
market is contained between this highs and then this lows but if you know
市場被限制在這些高點和這些低點之間。但如果你
13:25
zoom zuma out a little bit more you might now say that this market could be in an
把圖表稍微縮小一點,你可能會說這個市場可能處於
13:30
uptrend right yes it could be if you zoom up your chart like this but i would argue
上升趨勢。對,有可能。如果你像這樣放大你的圖表,但我會認為
13:35
more towards a range market as you can see that it's still stuck between these highs
更偏向區間市場,如你所見它仍然卡在這些高點
13:40
and this lows over here so i would say that this is a range market and of course
和這邊的低點之間,所以我會說這是一個區間市場,當然
13:47
what i've just shared with you is using candlestick chart to define the market structure but it's not the
我剛剛分享給你的是使用K線圖來定義市場結構,但這不是
13:52
only way because you can also use tools like moving average which i'll cover
唯一的方法,因為你也可以使用像移動平均線這樣的工具,我會在
13:57
next so what is moving average so moving average is an indicator that
接下來介紹。那麼什麼是移動平均線?移動平均線是一個指標,它
14:04
you know seems to follow the price so if you see the price heating up over time right your moving
似乎會跟隨價格,所以如果你看到價格隨著時間上漲,對吧,你的移動
14:09
average will be pointing up higher if you see the price heading down lower you can expect your moving average to be
平均線會向上走高,如果你看到價格向下走低,你可以預期你的移動平均線也會
14:14
pointing down lower as well and why is that and that's because of the math behind it so let me explain
向下走低。為什麼會這樣呢?那是因為它背後的數學原理。讓我解釋一下
14:20
so it's nothing too complicated it's going to be pretty simple i promise you so the math behind moving average or
所以這並不複雜,我保證會很簡單。移動平均線背後的數學原理,或者說
14:25
rather the idea behind it is that moving average calculates the average price over x number of period
其背後的理念是,移動平均線計算在X個週期內的平均價格
14:31
so let's say if you're looking at a daily time frame and you have a five period moving average
所以假設你正在看日線圖,你有一條五週期移動平均線
14:35
what this does is that it calculates the average price over the last five days since it's a five period moving average
它的作用是計算過去五天的平均價格,因為它是五週期移動平均線
14:42
so let me show you how this uh works so let's say you're looking at the chart and you have you know
所以讓我展示一下這如何運作。假設你正在看圖表,上面有
14:47
bars like this this is the first candle this is the second candle this is the third candle this is the
像這樣的K線,這是第一根K線,這是第二根K線,這是第三根K線,這是
14:54
fourth and let's say this is the fifth right five candles on the chart
第四根,假設這是第五根,對吧,圖表上有五根K線
14:59
and let's say the closing price of this five bars is you know one two three four dollars
假設這五根K線的收盤價分別是,你知道的,一、二、三、四
15:06
and then five dollars so so this right the first candle means the price closed at one dollar
然後是五美元。所以,這第一根K線代表價格收在1美元
15:10
second candle means the price closed at two dollar this one closed at three dollars this candle closed at four
第二根K線代表價格收在2美元,這根收在3美元,這根K線收在4
15:14
dollars and this candle closed at five dollars so let's say you overlay this chart with
美元,這根K線收在5美元。所以假設你在這張圖表上疊加
15:18
the five period moving average right what will the value of your moving average be well it's gonna be pretty
五週期移動平均線,對吧,你的移動平均線數值會是多少呢?嗯,它會非常簡單
15:24
simple right what you're gonna do is to add the total right of this closing price so one plus two plus three plus
很簡單對吧,你要做的就是把收盤價加總,一加二加三加四加五,然後除以五,因為你在計算某段時間的平均價格
15:29
four plus five and you divide by five since you are calculating the average price over
在這個例子中,我們計算的是五期移動平均
15:34
x number of period our x number of period in this case is a five period moving average
所以你取一加二加三加四加五再除以五,如果你這樣做,答案大概會是
15:37
so you take one plus two plus three plus four plus five divide by five and if you do that okay your answer will
除以五等於三美元,我怎麼知道呢
15:44
be along the lines of uh divided by five equals to three dollars how do i know
你可以拿出計算機,你會看到這五根K線的平均價格是三,所以假設我們在這裡,這個價格點加一個點
15:49
that you can just pull out your calculator and you'll see that this average of this uh five candle the
我稍後會解釋這個點的含義,現在假設出現了一根新的K線,收盤價
15:54
average price is three so let's say we add one dot over here right at this price point
在這第六根K線這裡收得更高,假設收在六美元
15:58
i'll explain what this dot means shortly so now let's say a new candle has fall right price is
現在新的五期移動平均值是多少?你要做的是,現在取
16:04
closed higher on this six candle over here and let's say it closed at six dollars
最近五根K線的價格,一、二、三、四、五,所以你取二加三加四加五加六,除以五,你得到的值是
16:10
now what is the new five period moving average value so what you're gonna do is you will now
四,你可能會想,那第一根K線呢?我們會忽略它,因為
16:17
okay take the most recent prices right over the last five candles so one two
我們在計算五期移動平均,我們只看最近的五根K線
16:24
three four five so you take two plus three plus four plus five plus six you divide by five and you get the value
所以在這個例子中,我們有六根K線,我們會忽略這根
16:30
of four now you might be wondering hey we know what about this first candle number one well we'll ignore it because
最舊的那根,所以從這裡到這裡是最近的五根K線
16:35
we are calculating the five period moving average we are just looking at the five most recent
所以我們再次計算總值的平均,二加三加四加五加六除以五,你會得到四美元,你要做的是
16:39
candles so in this case right we have six candles over here we will ignore this
在這裡再畫一個點,所以如果價格持續上漲,你會發現你的點越來越高,把這些點連起來,它就會像一條移動平均線一樣出現
16:42
one the oldest one so this is the five most recent candles from here
最舊的那根,所以這是从這裡開始的五根最新K線
16:47
all the way to here so again we just calculate the average of this total value here two plus three plus
一直到這裡,所以我們再次計算這個總值的平均數,2加3加
16:52
four plus five plus six divide by five and you'll get four dollars and what you'll do is you add
4加5加6除以5,你會得到4美元,接下來你要做的就是加上
16:57
let's say draw another dot over here so if the price keeps you know going up higher what you can do is you realize
舉例來說,在這裡畫另一個點,所以如果價格持續上漲,你可以發現
17:02
that your dots gets higher and you connect the dots it will appear as a moving average on
你的點變得越來越高,當你把這些點連起來,它就會像一條移動平均線一樣出現在
17:07
your chart that's how it works okay so hopefully you've got some aha moment down here
你的圖表就是這樣運作的,好的,希望你在這裡有了一些頓悟
17:12
okay so this is just some simple calculation which i've you know i shared with you earlier so now the key
好的,這只是一些簡單的計算,我之前已經跟你分享過了,所以現在關鍵
17:19
thing is this right how do you actually use moving average to define the market
在於,你實際上如何使用移動平均線來定義市場
17:23
structure so let's find out so for an uptrend what you can do is when the price is above the 200 period moving
結構呢?讓我們來一探究竟。對於上升趨勢,當價格位於200期移動平均線
17:30
average you can see that the market is in an uptrend in a downtrend right it's when the price
之上時,你可以看到市場處於上升趨勢;而在下降趨勢中,當價格
17:34
is below the 200 period moving average so some of you might be wondering hey why 200 period moving average
位於200期移動平均線之下時,情況則相反。所以有些人可能會想,為什麼是200期移動平均線?
17:40
well there's really nothing magical about this but when we use 200 right it will take into consideration right 200
其實這沒有什麼神奇之處,但當我們使用200期時,它會考慮到圖表上的200
17:45
bars on your chart so it will give you like a long-term guideline to whether this market is
根K棒,因此它能為你提供一個長期的準則,判斷這個市場是
17:50
hitting higher or lower so this is kind of a way to help you define the long-term trend
在走高還是走低。所以這是一種幫助你定義長期趨勢的方法
17:55
and finally the market is in the range right when the price chops up and down the 200 period moving average
最後,當價格在200期移動平均線
18:02
so let me just show you so for example euro against the usd i'll add in the moving average here so if you
上下波動時,市場就處於區間震盪。讓我展示給你看,例如歐元兌美元,我在這裡加入移動平均線,如果你
18:08
don't want if you're wondering how to do it i just go to indicators you look for moving
不知道怎麼做,你可以去指標那裡尋找移動
18:12
average right you can see over here just click on this and the line will appear so in
平均線,你看就在這裡,點擊它,線就會出現。所以在
18:16
this case i already have it on my chart and if you look at euro against the us dollar you can see at this market we can
這個例子中,我的圖表上已經有了它。如果你看歐元兌美元,你可以看到在這個市場,我們可以
18:22
see that this market is in an uptrend the price is above the prices above the 200 period
看出市場處於上升趨勢,價格在200期移動平均線之上。
18:28
moving average now if you look at the dollar against the south african ram you can say that this market is in a
現在如果你看美元兌南非蘭特,你會說這個市場處於
18:34
downtrend because the price which is here is now below the 200 period moving average and if you
下降趨勢,因為價格在這裡,現在位於200期移動平均線之下。如果你
18:40
look at this one over here pound against the canadian dollar you can see that this market is in a range because
再看這一個,英鎊兌加元,你可以看到這個市場處於區間震盪,因為
18:46
the price right you can see it is chopping up and down the moving average okay so we can conclude that this market
價格在移動平均線上下波動。好的,我們可以得出結論,這個市場
18:52
is in a range and that's how you can use moving average to help you define your market structure okay
處於區間震盪,這就是你如何使用移動平均線來幫助你定義市場結構的方法。好的
19:01
so let's do a quick recap number one market structure helps you to define the current market condition so you know
那我們來快速複習一下,第一,市場結構能幫助你界定當前的市場狀況,讓你知道
19:07
whether to be buying selling or staying out of the markets so for example if you see a market
該買進、賣出,還是離場觀望。舉例來說,如果你看到市場
19:12
in an uptrend what do you want to be doing well you want to look for buying opportunities that's the path of
處於上升趨勢,你應該怎麼做?你應該尋找買進的機會,這是阻力最小的路徑。
19:18
least resistance if you see a market in a downtrend what should you be doing you should be
如果你看到市場處於下降趨勢,你應該怎麼做?你應該
19:22
looking for selling opportunities because the market is heading down lower over time and there's
尋找賣出的機會,因為市場正隨時間向下走低,而且
19:27
a good chance it will continue to hit down lower and finally if you see the market is in a range then you can
很有可能會持續下跌。最後,如果你看到市場處於區間震盪,那麼你就可以
19:32
look you know buy low and sell high buy near the lows of the range and sell near the highest
買低賣高,在接近區間的低點買進,在接近區間的高點賣出。
19:36
of the range and i'll explain how you can do all that in the later section but for now just
稍後的章節我會解釋如何做到這一切,但現在你只需要
19:40
understand you know what is market structure and how it can you know help you alert
了解什麼是市場結構,以及它如何能幫助你提醒自己
19:44
you right to what you should be doing at any one point in time so market structure consists of uptrend
在任何特定時間點該做些什麼。所以市場結構包含上升趨勢、
19:50
downtrend and range you already know this and finally you can use a candlestick
下降趨勢和區間震盪,這點你已經知道了。最後,你可以使用K線圖
19:54
chart or moving average to help you define market structure so now at this point
或移動平均線來幫助你界定市場結構。那麼現在,
19:58
right you have you know learned market structure but it's just the first step because a
你已經了解了市場結構,但這只是第一步,因為
20:02
market could be in an uptrend but it doesn't mean you want to blindly you know hit the buy button because
市場可能處於上升趨勢,但這並不意味著你該盲目地按下買進鍵,因為
20:07
the market could be getting ready to make a pullback or even a complete reversal and the last thing you want to
市場可能正準備回調,甚至是完全反轉。你最不希望
20:11
do is to buy high and sell low so this is why it pays right to be watching right for your
發生的事就是高買低賣。因此,這就是為什麼你值得去留意
20:16
areas of value on the chart so you can better time your entries and this is what we'll cover
圖表上的價值區,以便更好地把握進場時機。而這就是我們接下來
20:20
next so area of value and by the way if you're enjoying this
要探討的內容:價值區。順帶一提,如果你喜歡這段
20:29
training so far smash the thumbs up button if not hit subscribe so where was i area of
教學,請按個讚;如果不喜歡,就點擊訂閱。我剛說到哪了?價值區。
20:35
value so area of value in essence right helps you to answer this question where to buy or
所謂價值區,本質上是幫助你回答這個問題:在哪裡買進或
20:40
sell so if you recall market structure tells you what to do should you be looking for buying
賣出 所以如果你回想一下,市場結構會告訴你該做什麼,你應該尋找買入
20:44
opportunities selling opportunities or maybe to stare off the markets totally
機會、賣出機會,或者也許完全觀望市場
20:48
for area of value it tells you where where on the chart to buy or sell so i define area of value
尋找價值區,它會告訴你在圖表上的哪裡買入或賣出,所以我這樣定義價值區
20:55
like this right area of value helps you to identify areas on your chart where buying or selling pressure could step in
像這樣,對吧,價值區幫助你識別圖表上買方或賣方壓力可能介入的區域
21:01
so let me explain this in more details so how do you identify area of value so again there are many
讓我更詳細地解釋一下,那麼你如何識別價值區呢?同樣地,有許多
21:08
techniques that you can use but for this training i'll share with you two support and resistance and moving
技術你可以使用,但在這次課程中,我會與你分享兩種:支撐阻力和移動
21:13
average so let me explain so what is support and resistance so support is an
平均線。讓我解釋一下,什麼是支撐阻力?支撐是
21:19
area on your chart where buying pressure could step in so if you look at this right let's say
你圖表上的一個區域,在那裡買方壓力可能介入,所以如果你看這裡,假設
21:24
price goes up comes down goes up comes back down goes up comes back down now from the
價格上漲後下跌,上漲後又下跌,上漲後又下跌,現在從
21:29
looks of this right we can say that this is an area of support because this is where
這個外觀來看,我們可以說這是一個支撐區,因為這是
21:33
previously the price has bounced off once twice and now possibly a third time over
先前價格反彈一次、兩次的地方,現在可能在這裡第三次反彈
21:37
here so this is what we call an area of support okay an area on your chart where buying
這就是我們所說的支撐區,好的,你圖表上的一個區域,在那裡買方
21:45
pressure could step in and push the price higher on the other hand we have something called resistance this
壓力可能介入並推高價格。另一方面,我們有稱為阻力的東西,這是
21:51
is an area on your chart where selling pressure could step in and push the price lower so it looks
你圖表上的一個區域,在那裡賣方壓力可能介入並推低價格,所以它看起來
21:58
something like this let's say you know price is in a downtrend comes up bounce up
像這樣,假設你知道價格處於下跌趨勢中,上漲反彈
22:02
comes back down goes up comes back down goes up and we can draw this as an area of
後回落,上漲後回落,上漲,我們可以將其畫成一個阻力區
22:07
resistance price got rejected once twice and now maybe a third time over here this is what we call an
價格被拒絕一次、兩次,現在也許在這裡第三次被拒絕,這就是我們所說的
22:13
area of resistance is where potential selling pressure could come in and push the price lower so this is the opposite
阻力區,是潛在賣方壓力可能出現並推低價格的地方,所以這與
22:21
of support and another thing to add is that when support is broken it could become
支撐相反,另外要補充一點,當支撐被跌破時,它可能變成
22:27
resistance and vice versa so for example let's say market is in a range like this okay goes
阻力,反之亦然。舉例來說,假設市場像這樣處於區間震盪,好的,走勢是
22:32
up comes down goes up comes down and breaks out of the range breaks out of resistance
上漲後下跌,上漲後下跌,然後突破了區間,突破了阻力
22:37
now when it comes back down lower this area of resistance this previous area of resistance right
現在當它回落到更低的位置,這個阻力區域,這個先前的阻力區域,對吧
22:44
resistance resistance now once it breaks out of resistance it could now become support this is what we call previous
阻力,阻力,現在一旦它突破了阻力,它現在就可以變成支撐,這就是我們所說的先前的阻力
22:50
resistance which now become support so likewise if support is broken
現在變成了支撐,所以同樣地,如果支撐被跌破
22:56
it could now become resistance so let's say price is in a range then it breaks down below support and it
它現在就可以變成阻力,所以假設價格在一個區間內,然後它跌破了支撐,然後
23:02
comes back up now previous support support support could now access
又回升上來,現在先前的支撐,支撐,支撐,現在可能變成
23:07
resistance and it can actually uh sort of like you know anticipate right the price could reverse
阻力,它實際上可以,呃,有點像,你知道,預期,對吧,價格可能會
23:12
lower from here okay so this is what we mean by when support is broken it could become
從這裡反轉向下,好的,這就是我們所說的,當支撐被跌破時,它可能變成
23:16
resistance and vice versa so let's have a look at some charts so you know what i mean so first
阻力,反之亦然,所以我們來看一些圖表,這樣你就知道我的意思,首先
23:22
one here is platinum you can see the support and resistance here in action
這是白金,你可以在這裡看到支撐和阻力的實際作用
23:26
so this is you can see previous resistance price then you know hit down lower tested once and had a
所以這是,你可以看到先前的阻力,價格,你知道,向下觸及低點,測試了一次,然後有一次
23:32
messy slide off price then came back and re-test resistance head down a bit lower re-test it hit
混亂的滑落,價格然後回升並重新測試阻力,向下走了一點更低,重新測試它,觸及
23:37
lower then finally broke out previous resistance become support then you continue up higher pull back
更低的點,最後突破了,先前的阻力變成了支撐,然後繼續走高,回檔
23:44
head up higher pull back and then breaks out of this resistance comes back previous
走高,回檔,然後突破了這個阻力,回升,先前的
23:49
resistance now becomes support it heats up higher pullback heats up higher to kind of where it is
阻力現在變成了支撐,它走高,回檔,走高到差不多
23:55
right now another example euro against the australian dollar so for this one you can see that
現在的位置,另一個例子,歐元兌澳元,所以對於這個,你可以看到
24:01
this market is in a downtrend series of lower lows and lower high lower high lower high
這個市場處於下降趨勢,一系列的更低低點和更低高點,更低高點,更低高點
24:06
lower high so okay we're not talking about market structure now now we want to pay attention to the
更低高點,好的,我們現在不談論市場結構,現在我們要注意
24:10
support and resistance so if you look at this one over here you can see over here this previously is
支撐和阻力,所以如果你看這邊的這個,你可以看到在這裡,這個先前是
24:17
support okay price broke below support and re-test previous support become
支撐,好的,價格跌破了支撐,並重新測試了先前的支撐,變成
24:22
resistant so it's a bit far away from this area of support but you want to bear this in mind
阻力位,所以它距離這個支撐區域有點遠,但你要記住這一點
24:26
it's not an exact level or line on the chart it's an area okay so this you know had a bounce over
它不是圖表上精確的水平或線條,而是一個區域,好的,所以這裡你知道出現了反彈
24:31
here uh a rejection at this previous support which became resistance
在這裡,對先前支撐位的拒絕,該支撐位後來變成了阻力位
24:36
then price hits down lower retests previous support which became resistance he's down lower
然後價格下跌得更低,重新測試先前的支撐位,該支撐位變成了阻力位,它跌得更低
24:43
comes back up pulls back and heads back into this area of resistance to where it is
回升並拉回,然後回到這個阻力區域,也就是它現在所在的位置
24:47
right now so you can see you know support and resistance here in action and finally another one is a
所以你可以看到支撐和阻力在這裡的實際作用,最後再舉一個例子,是
24:54
pound canadian you can see that you see that this market is pretty much just stuck within
英鎊兌加元,你可以看到這個市場基本上就卡在
24:58
this range between these highs which is resistance and this lows which is support
這些高點(阻力位)和這些低點(支撐位)之間的區間內
25:03
and one thing to add is that you can also you know if you want you can you know use a tool
還有一點要補充的是,如果你想要,你也可以
25:08
like the rectangle tool to draw or identify your area better like this
使用像矩形工具這樣的工具來更好地繪製或識別你的區域,像這樣
25:14
personally i like to draw it as lines even though i treat it as an area but for those of you who prefer to
個人來說,我喜歡把它畫成線條,即使我把它視為一個區域,但對於那些喜歡
25:19
draw it as a box this is something that you can do as well okay so discuss kind of like personal preference
把它畫成方框的人,這也是你可以做的事情,好的,所以這有點像個人偏好的討論
25:24
just a tip to share with you so now let's talk about how right to draw
只是一個要分享給你的小技巧,那麼現在讓我們來談談如何正確地繪製
25:32
support and resistance shall we you might be wondering hey rayner how do you draw these
支撐和阻力位,好嗎?你可能在想,嘿,Rayner,你是怎麼畫這些
25:37
areas man so that's what we'll cover right now so a few things to share number one if the
區域的,所以這就是我們現在要涵蓋的內容,有幾點要分享,第一,如果
25:42
market is trending you only want to draw the two most recent swing points so let me explain
市場處於趨勢中,你只需要畫出最近的兩個波段點,讓我解釋一下
25:48
so let's say if the market is in an uptrend right hit higher pull back hit higher
所以假設市場處於上升趨勢中,價格創高點後拉回,再創高點
25:53
pull back hit higher pull back and hit higher so at this point you have you know
拉回,再創高點,拉回,然後再創高點,所以在這一點上,你有
25:57
a number of swing low you have one two one here two here and three but my suggestion is
數個波段低點,你有一、二,這裡一個,這裡兩個,還有三個,但我的建議是
26:03
to draw draw the two most recent swing low at support meaning you just draw a support like this
畫出最近的兩個波段低點作為支撐,意思是你只需要像這樣畫一條支撐線
26:08
and then another one over here why do you not want to consider this one here and it's very simple because
這裡還有另一個,為什麼你不考慮這個位置呢?其實很簡單,因為
26:13
when the market is trending higher right yes it could make a pullback and where could he pull back into
當市場處於上升趨勢時,沒錯,它可能會回調,那它會回調到哪裡呢?
26:19
i'm guessing probably into one of these areas over here this or this the market can pull back
我猜測可能是這幾個區域之一,這裡或這裡,市場可以回調
26:25
into this swing low this lower one but if it does right then you would
到這個波段低點,這個更低的位置,但如果它真的這樣做,那麼你就會
26:29
realize that this market is no longer in an uptrend because if the price could come back all the way down here
意識到這個市場不再處於上升趨勢,因為如果價格一路跌回這裡
26:34
into this level here you can see that you can imagine that this uptrend is no longer in text
到這個水準,你可以看到,你可以想像這個上升趨勢已經不成立了
26:39
maybe even in a downtrend if if the market is in the downtrend then what the heck am i doing trying to
甚至可能進入下降趨勢,如果市場處於下降趨勢,那我到底為什麼要試圖
26:44
buy at this level so this is why i only pay attention to the two most recent swing lows and don't worry i'll
在這個水準買進呢?所以這就是為什麼我只關注最近的兩個波段低點,別擔心,我稍後會
26:50
share with you a few chart examples later on but that is how i would draw
給你看幾個圖表範例,但這就是我會繪製
26:54
my support and resistance in the trending market so likewise if the market is let's say you know heading
趨勢市場中支撐與阻力的方式,同樣地,如果市場,比方說,你知道正
26:59
down lower and you have numerous swing highs to reference i would just you know draw my
往下跌,而你有許多波段高點可以參考,我只會,你知道的,在
27:04
resistance possibly at this one here and at this one here and of course right if this is a previous support which
這個位置以及這個位置畫出我的阻力位,當然,如果這是之前的支撐位,可能
27:10
could become resistance i would also you know highlight it on the chart but in terms of swing points right
會變成阻力位,我也會,你知道的,在圖表上標示出來,但就波段點而言,
27:14
the swing highs this will be the two most recent swing highs that i would pay attention to
波段高點,我會關注的將是最近的兩個波段高點
27:20
on the other hand if you have a range market then it's pretty simple just draw the highs and lows of the range and
另一方面,如果你面對的是盤整市場,那就很簡單,直接畫出區間的高點和低點,並
27:25
adjust it right to get the most number of touches right so i'll explain that
調整它,以獲得最多的觸及次數,我稍後會解釋
27:28
shortly so let's have a look at a few charting examples so this is euro against the japanese yen
這一點,所以我們來看幾個圖表範例,這是歐元兌日圓
27:35
this is the daily timeframe just reset okay so you can see over here where should i
這是日線圖,我們重置一下,好了,你可以看到這裡,我們應該在
27:39
or where should we draw our area of support now the way i will do this is here i would take this level here and
哪裡,或者我們應該在哪裡畫出支撐區呢?我的做法是這樣,我會取這個水準,然後
27:46
draw one here this is the most recent swing low and another one over here and that's it
在這裡畫一個,這是最近的波段低點,然後在另一邊也畫一個,就這樣
27:52
right this will be the two area of support i will pay attention to but also bear in mind
好的,這將是我會關注的兩個支撐區域,但也請記住
27:57
that this over here could be previous resistance which becomes support remember
這裡的這個位置,可能是先前的阻力位,現在變成了支撐位,請記住
28:04
once price breaks above resistance it could become support so this is actually another level
一旦價格突破阻力位,它就可能變成支撐位,所以這實際上是另一個
28:07
that's worth right paying attention to and i will draw it on the chart so if you ask me right for this
值得關注的水位,我會把它畫在圖表上,所以如果你問我,針對這個
28:12
uptrend this will be my area of support on this chart why don't i draw let's say over here
上升趨勢,這將是我圖表上的支撐區域,不如我畫在這裡
28:20
over here very simple if the price can come back all the way down into this lows over here this could be in the
這裡,很簡單,如果價格能一路回調到這邊的低點,這裡可能已經進入
28:24
downtrend already so instead of you know wanting to buy at this support i would rather be looking for
下降趨勢了,所以與其在這個支撐位買進,我寧願尋找
28:30
selling opportunities at this previous area you know where previous uh support could become resistance so i'm gonna
在這個先前區域賣出的機會,你知道的,就是先前的支撐位可能變成阻力位的地方,所以我打算
28:35
shift right my dynamics right i'm no longer looking for buying opportunities because
調整我的策略,我不再尋找買進的機會,因為
28:39
if the market is in a downtrend we should be looking for selling opportunities so this is why i just pay
如果市場處於下降趨勢,我們應該尋找賣出的機會,這就是為什麼我只關注
28:43
attention to the most recent swing points in the market another one
市場中最近的波動點,另一個例子
28:48
dollar against the south african rate so same thing what is the market structure if you look
美元兌南非蘭特,同樣的道理,市場結構是什麼,如果你看
28:53
at this this market is in a downtrend so pay attention to the two most recent swing points it will be this
這裡,這個市場處於下降趨勢,所以請關注最近的兩個波動點,分別是這個
28:59
one here and possibly this one over here okay so this will be the two
位置,以及可能在這裡的這個位置,好的,所以這將是圖表上
29:04
areas on the chart that i will pay attention to this is where previous support could become resistance
我會關注的兩個區域,這裡是先前的支撐位可能變成阻力位的地方
29:11
and this clearly is an area of resistance so i tested once
而這裡顯然是一個阻力區域,它在這裡測試了一次
29:15
two times three times and four times over here so the previous example i had three levels this one i have two so
兩次、三次和四次,所以之前的例子我有三個水位,這個我有兩個,所以
29:20
there's some kind of discretion over here it's not like an exact science where you
這裡有一些判斷的空間,這不像是一門精確的科學,你
29:24
can only have two know if the chart right makes sense if it permits right i can have you know three
只能有兩個,如果圖表合理,如果允許的話,我可以有三個
29:29
potential support resistance areas on the chart okay and one last final example
潛在的支撐阻力區域在圖表上,好的,最後一個例子
29:37
okay so this one dollar usd against singapore dollar so if you look at this you would see that
好的,這是美元兌新加坡元,如果你看這裡,你會看到
29:43
is this in a downtrend or is this in a range so if you zoom out your charts right you can see
這是在下跌趨勢中,還是在區間震盪?如果你把圖表拉遠,你可以看到
29:48
that this is a long term noise it's in a downtrend but if you zoom in a little bit like this
這只是長期的雜訊,它處於下跌趨勢中,但如果你像這樣放大一點,
29:53
right you would say that huh this is not exactly like a downtrend this seems like a little bit more of a range
你會說,嗯,這並不完全像下跌趨勢,看起來更像是一個區間。
29:57
and i would say you're not wrong so the way i would do this is again i would draw right the key areas on the
我會說你沒錯。所以我的做法是,再次地,我會在圖表上畫出關鍵區域,
30:04
chart so as of right now which is the nearest swing points right relative to the price right now
就目前而言,相對於現在的價格,最近的波動點是哪些?
30:09
so if you see the price right now it's over here the nearest major swing points on the chart is here
所以如果你看現在的價格在這裡,圖表上最近的主要波動點在這裡,
30:15
between these highs and this lows over here okay so you can see this is how i would
就在這些高點和這邊的低點之間。好的,所以你可以看到我就是這樣
30:21
draw my support and resistance for this particular chart over here this is the highs
為這個特定的圖表畫出支撐和阻力。這邊是高點,
30:26
and this is the lows so one thing to point out is that recall earlier i said that i would adjust it
這邊是低點。有一點要指出的是,回想一下我之前說過我會調整它,
30:31
to get as many touches as possible so if you look at this i can actually draw my resistance smack right
以盡可能多地觸及。所以如果你看這裡,我其實可以把我的阻力線畫在正中央,
30:37
okay i'll see i could draw it no this this is actually okay so let's talk about this one this lows
好吧,我看看,我可以畫在...不,這...這樣其實可以。我們來談談這個低點,
30:42
right i could actually draw it maybe at this extreme point okay at this extreme
我其實可以畫在這個極端點,好吧,在這個
30:48
low over here but why don't i want to do that because i mentioned earlier i want to get the most number of
低點這裡,但為什麼我不想那樣做?因為我前面提到,我希望得到最多的
30:54
touches so if you just look back in here if i draw this extreme point i will neglect this low over here and i don't
觸及次數。所以如果你往回看這裡,如果我畫在這個極端點,我會忽略掉這邊的低點,而我
31:01
want that so let me shift it up slightly higher so i can also take into consideration
不想這樣。所以我把它稍微往上移一點,這樣我也能納入
31:05
this low okay so i have one touch two touch make sense so same for here right if i
這個低點。好的,所以我有一個觸及,兩個觸及,明白嗎?這裡也是一樣,如果我
31:11
were to draw it this level i have one touch two touch and three touch compared to
把它畫在這個水平,我有一個觸及,兩個觸及,三個觸及。相比之下,
31:15
let's say i were to only you know shift it up higher the reason why i said this is fine
如果我只把它往上移高一點。我說這樣沒問題的原因是,
31:19
because if you look back here you get a number of touches here and here as well but for me
因為如果你往回看,你在這裡和這裡都得到了一些觸及,但對我來說
31:24
personally i want to take into account the most recent touches i want to get the most
個人來說,我想納入最近的觸及點,我想把最近的
31:27
recent touches together so i'm going to adjust this slightly lower and take into consideration
觸及點整合在一起,所以我會把這裡稍微調低一點,並納入考量
31:33
this as well this one here one touch two and three okay so let's have a look at another example
這個,還有這裡,一次觸及、兩次和三次,好的,那我們來看另一個例子
31:39
pound against the aussie so again this one here the way you draw your support and resistance
英鎊對澳元,同樣地,這裡這個,你畫支撐和阻力的方式
31:44
you can draw at this extreme high but if you were to do that then you would you know neglect
你可以畫在這個極端高點,但如果你那樣做,你會忽略
31:49
quite a bit of levels you actually know this one this one here you know and so what i'll do instead is
相當多的水準,你其實知道這個、這裡這個,所以與其那樣做,我會
31:54
that i would prefer to adjust this slightly lower to get the most number of touch
更傾向於把這裡稍微調低,以得到最多的觸及次數
32:00
so when i do that i now have this over here one touch two three four and five great so same for this one
所以當我這樣做時,我現在在這裡得到這個,一次觸及、兩次、三次、四次和五次,很好,這個也一樣
32:06
and the lows over here drawing this area of support i don't want to draw it at the extreme
還有這裡的低點,畫這個支撐區時,我不想畫在極端
32:10
level i want to adjust it so i can get the most number of touches so i'll adjust this slightly up higher
點,我想調整它,以便能得到最多的觸及次數,所以我會把這裡稍微調高一點
32:16
and now i have one touch two and three and this is my area of support okay and this of course is my area of
現在我有一、二、三個觸及點,這就是我的支撐區,好的,而這當然是我的
32:24
resistance and that's how you go about drawing your support and resistance on your chart and of course all right
阻力區,這就是你如何在圖表上繪製支撐和阻力的方法,當然,好的
32:29
this needs practice it's not like you know watch a five minute video and you become a pro
這需要練習,並不是說看個五分鐘的影片就能成為專家
32:32
no you gotta practice it and you know watch how the market reacts to your level in real time and
不,你必須練習,並在即時市場中觀察市場如何對你的水準做出反應,以及
32:37
from then on you will get better at drawing support and resistance and of course
從那之後,你在繪製支撐和阻力方面就會進步,當然
32:42
right this is only one way to draw support and resistance in the next section i'll
好的,這只是繪製支撐和阻力的一種方法,在下一節中我將
32:46
share with you how you can use moving average right to do this uh to identify your area of value as well
與你分享如何使用移動平均線來做到這點,呃,同樣用來識別你的價值區
32:53
okay so moving average again so how can you use moving average to define an area of value so here's how so
好的,那麼再次提到移動平均線,你該如何使用移動平均線來定義價值區呢?方法如下:
33:00
in trending markets for example in an uptrend a moving average can act as an area of value it will look
例如在趨勢市場中,在上升趨勢裡,移動平均線可以充當價值區,它會看起來
33:05
something like this so let's say market is in an uptrend higher makes a pullback
像這樣,所以假設市場處於上升趨勢,價格走高並進行回檔
33:10
another high pullback another high pullback another high when you menu overlay with a moving average let's say
另一次拉回 另一次拉回 另一次拉回 當你用移動平均線覆蓋圖表時 比方說
33:16
the 50 period moving average you would realize that the price right has bounced off the moving average a
50期移動平均線 你會發現價格已經多次反彈觸碰移動平均線
33:21
number of times you know once twice three times and if you come back for a fourth time
你知道 一次 兩次 三次 如果它第四次回來
33:26
okay we can say that you know hey this is an area of value and this is where buying pressure could step in and push
好 我們可以說 你知道 這裡是價值區 這裡可能會有買盤進場並推升
33:32
the price up higher so which moving average do we use we have you know one to one thousand
價格走高 那麼我們該用哪種移動平均線呢 我們有 你知道 從1到1000期的
33:36
for me personally i like to use the 50 period moving average because for 50 period moving average the trend
就我個人而言 我喜歡用50期移動平均線 因為對於50期移動平均線而言 趨勢
33:42
usually tends to be a healthy trend where you can see the app and flow of the trends very clearly here you can see
通常趨於健康的趨勢 你可以非常清楚地看到趨勢的起伏流動 在這裡你可以看到
33:47
the pullback it's not very shallow it's not very deep to me it's just just nice right the
拉回 不會太淺 也不會太深 對我來說 剛剛好 對吧
33:50
sweet spot of course you don't have to use the 50 period moving average some people prefer
最佳甜蜜點 當然 你不一定非得用50期移動平均線 有些人偏好
33:55
shallower pullback than they use the 20 period moving average some people prefer you know a deeper
較淺的拉回 所以他們會用20期移動平均線 有些人偏好 你知道 較深的
34:00
pull rat they use the 100 period moving average so there are you know different types of moving
拉回 他們就用100期移動平均線 所以 你知道 有不同類型的移動
34:04
average you can use ultimately right you have to find right the type of trends that you
平均線你可以使用 最終 對吧 你必須找出 你想要交易的
34:08
want to trade and you might be wondering but rain how do i know whether you know the moving average
趨勢類型 你可能在想 但是阿仁 我怎麼知道 你知道 移動平均線
34:14
holds up you know sometimes i look at different charts you know the price just slice and dice through
是否有效支撐 你知道 有時候我看不同的圖表 價格直接就跌破穿過
34:17
the moving average right doesn't respect it i get it so this is why before we use
移動平均線 對吧 完全不尊重它 我懂 所以這就是為什麼在我們使用
34:22
moving average as an area of value we want to make sure that the price you know respects the moving average and
移動平均線作為價值區之前 我們要確保價格 你知道 尊重移動平均線 而且
34:27
we use this two tests right to confirm it so let me explain so let's say market is in an uptrend
我們用這兩次測試 對吧 來確認它 讓我解釋一下 假設市場處於上升趨勢
34:34
it makes a pullback goes up makes a pullback and it goes up and you overlay with a moving average
它進行拉回 上漲 再進行拉回 然後上漲 而你用移動平均線覆蓋
34:38
it has to be tested at least twice so this is one test and this is the second test so this way
它必須至少被測試兩次 所以這是一次測試 這是第二次測試 這樣一來
34:45
if the market comes back for a third time all right i know that hey you know this
如果市場第三次回來 好 我就知道 你知道 這裡...
34:48
market seems to be respecting this moving average i have more confidence right to
市場似乎正在遵循這條移動平均線,我更有信心
34:52
use the moving average to define my area of value having you know proven itself two times previously so this is what i
使用移動平均線來定義我的價值區,因為它之前已經證明了兩次,所以我的意思是
34:58
mean by you know at least two tests to confirm it so let me walk you through some
至少要有兩次測試來確認它,所以讓我帶您看一些
35:03
charts so you know what i mean so you can see over here this is brand crude oil over here we
圖表,您就會明白我的意思,您可以看到這裡這是布蘭特原油,在這裡我們
35:09
have one test price tester moving average once then it breaks above this swing high
有一次測試,價格測試了移動平均線一次,然後它突破了這個波段高點
35:14
tested a second time breaks out above this swing high and then tested here a third time
第二次測試,突破了這個波段高點,然後在這裡第三次測試
35:19
okay so we have three tests over here so this means if in future maybe for a fourth time
好的,所以我們在這裡有三次測試,這意味著如果未來也許是第四次
35:23
the price comes back to this 50 period moving average i can say hey you know this
價格回到這條50期移動平均線,我可以說嘿,對於這個特定市場
35:27
is an area of value for this particular market and on this timeframe i can look for
這是一個價值區,而在這個時間框架上,我可以尋找
35:31
buying opportunities at this 50 period moving average since it's acting as in it's an area of value okay and then in
在這條50期移動平均線的買入機會,因為它正在扮演一個價值區的角色。好的,然後在
35:38
this case right yep it did came back and you know tested uh i would say a fourth time over here so
這個案例中,是的,它確實回來了,並且在這裡進行了第四次測試,所以
35:43
now some of you might be thinking rain why isn't this a fourth test and that's a good question and the
現在你們有些人可能會想,Rain,為什麼這不是第四次測試?這是個好問題,而
35:48
reason is because for me to define a test the price must break above you know the
原因是對我來說,要定義一次測試,價格必須突破
35:53
swing high or the swing low so in this case this was already already the third test
前一個波段高點或波段低點,所以在這種情況下,這已經是第三次測試了
35:57
but the price when he tested here it did not break out this swing high over here so i don't consider this
但當價格在這裡測試時,它並沒有突破這裡的波段高點,所以我不認為這是
36:02
a fourth test the price has to break out of this swing high only then when he breaks out of it and
第四次測試,價格必須突破這個波段高點,只有當它突破並
36:08
re-test would i consider it a test okay so that's the way i define my test
重新測試時,我才會認為這是一次測試,好的,這就是我定義測試的方式
36:14
dollar against the japanese yen same thing if you look at this price tested once bounce up test it twice
美元兌日圓也是同樣的道理,如果您看這裡,價格測試了一次,反彈向上,測試了第二次
36:21
heads up higher came back a third time we have three tests over here so again on this market and on this time frame
向上走高,第三次回來,我們在這裡有三次測試,所以再次,在這個市場和這個時間框架上
36:26
dollar against the japanese cn eight hour time frame i would say that hey the 50 period moving average right is
美元兌日圓在八小時時間框架上,我會說嘿,50期移動平均線,是的,它是
36:31
acting as an area of value i can look for buying opportunities if the market pulls back
作為一個價值區域,如果市場回調至50期移動平均線,我可以尋找買入機會
36:35
towards the 50 period moving moving average seems you know it's respecting it
似乎它在這裡獲得了支撐
36:40
in this case i tested a fourth time and then just collapse and break down aussie against the japanese yen so let's
在這種情況下,它測試了第四次,然後就崩潰並跌破了澳元兌日圓,所以讓我們
36:47
have a look at this and see if there's any uh test so over here we have one test price
來看看這個,並查看是否有任何測試,所以在這裡我們有一次測試,價格
36:53
breaks out of the swing high second test price breaks out of this swing high
突破了波段高點,第二次測試,價格突破了這個波段高點
36:57
came back a third test then start to chop chop chop chop it hits higher but eventually i think
回來了第三次測試,然後開始震盪、震盪、震盪,它觸及了更高的位置,但最終我想
37:02
you saw what happened right you oh yeah it hits higher so that's how you kind of define the
你看到了發生什麼事,對吧,它觸及了更高的位置,所以這就是你如何定義
37:06
test and uh use it to serve as an area of value and just one last final example
測試,並利用它作為一個價值區域,最後再舉一個例子
37:11
example you can see over here the dollar against the chinese union you don't have to use the 50 period
例子,你在這裡可以看到美元兌人民幣,你不必使用50期
37:15
moving average for this one over here you can see that the 20 period moving average
移動平均線,在這裡你可以看到20期移動平均線
37:19
can serve as an area of value as well so you can see one test it's down lower second test hit down
也可以作為一個價值區域,所以你可以看到一次測試,它走低,第二次測試走低
37:25
lower third test hit down lower there's another fourth one over here and you know fifth and so on so one thing to
第三次測試走低,這裡還有第四次,你知道還有第五次等等,所以有一點要
37:32
point out is that when you see this chart that is uh respecting the 20 period
指出的是,當你看到這張圖表,它在
37:37
moving average if you look at the depth of the pullback this one is much shallower compared to the 50 period
20期移動平均線獲得了支撐,如果你看回調的深度,與50期
37:42
moving average if you look at the depth of the pullback it's usually quite shallow
移動平均線相比,這個回調的深度通常相當淺
37:45
quite shallow compared to the 50 period moving average one like only let's say the dollar yen
相當淺,與50期移動平均線相比,比如說美元兌日圓
37:49
eight hour you can see that the depth of the pullback is much uh deeper right this one you can see much
八小時圖,你可以看到回調的深度要深得多,對吧,這個你可以看到更
37:54
deeper deeper and much deeper so this right gives you more time right if the depth of the pullback is i would
深、更深、深得多,所以這給了你更多時間,對吧,如果回調的深度我會說
37:59
say longer in this case of the 50 period moving average you have more time to
在50期移動平均線的情況下比較長,你就有更多時間來
38:04
plan your entry right compared to a 20 period moving average where you know you need to scramble and act fast so this is
計劃你的入場點,對吧,與20期移動平均線相比,你知道你需要手忙腳亂並迅速行動,所以這是
38:08
why i prefer using the 50 period moving average to
為什麼在趨勢市場中,我偏好使用 50 期移動平均線
38:12
define right uh the area of value in trending markets okay let's do a quick recap
來定義價值區域,好的,讓我們快速複習
38:20
to what you've just learned number one area of value helps you to decide where to buy or sell you know exactly
你剛剛學到的內容。第一,價值區域協助你決定買賣的位置,讓你清楚知道
38:26
where on a chart right you can look for buying opportunities where on the chart exactly
在圖表上的哪裡,對吧?你可以在圖表上的特定位置尋找買進機會,
38:30
you can look for selling opportunities and to accomplish that i share with you a couple of tools and techniques you can
也可以在特定位置尋找賣出機會。為了達成這個目標,我分享了幾個工具和技巧,你可以
38:34
use supporting resistance or moving average right to help you identify your area of value and
搭配支撐、阻力或移動平均線,來協助你識別價值區域。而且
38:39
in fact you can actually use both support and resistance and moving average to define your area of value
事實上,你也可以同時使用支撐阻力和移動平均線來定義你的價值區域。
38:44
okay i'll cover more later on so that's what if you know we've just covered so at this point right you know market
好的,稍後我會有更多說明,以上是我們目前涵蓋的內容。所以到目前為止,市場
38:50
structure right tells you you know what to do whether to be looking for buying opportunities selling
結構告訴你該怎麼做,無論是尋找買進機會、賣出
38:54
opportunities or to stay out of the markets then we have talked about area of value
機會,或是離場觀望。接著我們談到了價值區域,
38:58
where to buy where to sell now the next question is when exactly do you buy or sell when
該在哪裡買、在哪裡賣。現在下一個問題是,你到底該在什麼時候買或賣?什麼
39:03
is the right time to click the buy button when right that's where we will you know talk more about it in
時候才是按下買進按鈕的正確時機?這就是我們接下來將在
39:08
the next section which is called entry trigger hey hey what's up my friends so let's
下一個章節「進場觸發點」中會深入探討的部分。嘿!嘿!各位朋友,讓我們
39:19
you know carry on where we move on but before we get started i want to do a super quick
繼續前進吧。但在開始之前,我想用超快的速度
39:23
recap to the topics that you have just learned so first thing first number one remember
複習一下你們剛剛學到的主題。首先第一點,記住
39:29
market structure what is it well in essence right market structure tells you what to do if the market is
市場結構。它是什麼呢?本質上,市場結構告訴你該怎麼做:如果市場處於
39:34
in an uptrend you will look for buying opportunities if the market is in a downtrend you will
上升趨勢,你就尋找買進機會;如果市場處於下降趨勢,你就
39:39
look for selling opportunities so so that's what we covered market structure the
尋找賣出機會。這就是我們剛剛涵蓋的市場結構,
39:43
first thing so let's say market is in an uptrend a series of higher highs and higher lows then this brings us to
第一部分。所以假設市場處於上升趨勢,也就是一系列的更高的高點和更高的低點,那麼這就引導我們到
39:50
the second section that we have covered we talk about area of value and the reason why this is
我們涵蓋的第二部分,也就是價值區域。而之所以會這樣是因為
39:54
important is because just because a market is in an uptrend doesn't mean you want to blindly hit the buy button
重要的是,因為市場處於上升趨勢,並不意味著你想要盲目地按下買入鍵
39:59
because the market could be getting ready to make a pullback or reversal
因為市場可能正準備進行回調或反轉
40:03
so this is where i introduce to you right the concept of area of value to identify areas on your chart where
所以在這裡,我要向你介紹「價值區」的概念,用來識別圖表上
40:09
buying pressure could step in to push the price higher so in other words these are areas on your chart
買方力量可能進場推動價格上漲的區域,換句話說,這些是你圖表上
40:14
where you want to look for buying opportunities so in this case let's say it's an uptrend
你想要尋找買入機會的區域,所以在這種情況下,假設是上升趨勢
40:18
this could be an area of value right where previous resistance could become support so this is an area
這可能是一個價值區,也就是先前的阻力位可能轉變為支撐位的地方,所以這是一個
40:24
of value this is where you want to look for buying opportunities to hop on board the
價值區,這是你要尋找買入機會、搭上趨勢順風車的地方
40:28
trend and now this brings us to our third section entry trigger so once you have
現在這帶我們來到第三部分:進場觸發點。所以一旦你確定了
40:33
your market structure once you have your area of value the next question is when do you enter a
你的市場結構,一旦你確定了你的價值區,下一個問題是:你什麼時候進場
40:37
trade so this is what entry trigger is all about it tells you when exactly
交易?這就是進場觸發點的全部意義。它告訴你確切的
40:42
to enter a trade when exactly to buy or sell so to do that right entry trigger we'll
進場交易時間,確切的買入或賣出時機。要做到這一點,進場觸發點我們將
40:48
we'll learn some simple price patterns right that you can utilize right that tells you when to enter a trade
學習一些簡單的價格形態,你可以利用它們來告訴你何時進場交易
40:53
right after your earlier market conditions are met right namely the market structure and the area of failure
當你先前的市場條件(即市場結構和價值區)都滿足之後
40:59
so let's you know study this more in that so how do you define an entry trigger
所以讓我們更深入地研究一下。那麼,你如何定義一個進場觸發點呢?
41:06
so there are numerous ways but i'm going to share with you two technique number one is what i call candlestick patterns
有很多方法,但我將與你分享兩種技巧。第一種是我所說的K線形態(candlestick patterns)
41:10
i didn't call it right you know it's the people the traders before me right they came up with this uh this concept
不是我發明的,是之前的交易員們提出了這個概念
41:15
and then we have the moving average break so let's you know study these two techniques right that you can use to
然後我們有移動平均線突破。所以讓我們研究這兩種技巧,你可以用它們來
41:21
define as your entry trigger so let me first and foremost explain what candlestick pattern is all about so
定義你的進場觸發點。那麼首先讓我解釋一下K線形態是什麼。
41:27
candlestick patterns is uh something that you might be familiar with because most
K線形態你可能很熟悉,因為大多數
41:31
charting platforms offer this uh this type of candlestick charts so it has four data points the opening
圖表平台都提供這種K線圖,它有四個數據點:開盤價
41:37
price the highest price point of the day of the candle
當天K線的最高價位
41:41
the lowest price point and the closing price so i'll explain this in more details shortly
最低價位以及收盤價,我稍後會更詳細地解釋
41:46
so i want you to know is that candlestick patterns can be utilized across different time frames you can use
所以我想讓你知道的是,K線型態可以應用在不同的時間框架上,你可以
41:51
it on the daily the forward hourly the weekly time frame and depending on the time frame that you're
在日線、小時線、週線時間框架上使用它,而根據你所使用的時間框架,
41:56
using how you can interpret it is that on the one hour time frame right one candle
你的解讀方式也會有所不同,例如在一小時的時間框架上,一根K線
42:00
will be formed every one hour if you're on the four hour time frame then one candle
會每小時形成一次;如果你在四小時的時間框架上,那麼一根K線
42:04
will be formed every four hours and likewise if you're on a daily time frame one candle will be formed every single
會每四小時形成一次;同樣地,如果你在日線時間框架上,一根K線會每天
42:10
day you get my point so now this brings me to this section right how do you read
形成一次,你懂我的意思吧。那麼現在這就帶我進入了這個部分,你該如何閱讀
42:15
candlestick patterns okay so remember there are four data points i'm going to explain to you step by step
K線型態呢?好的,請記住有四個數據點,我會一步一步向你解釋
42:20
so when you deal with candlestick patterns right you will likely see one of two type of
所以當你處理K線型態時,你很可能會看到兩種類型的
42:25
candles either a green candle or red candle sometimes could be a black candle or a white candle it really
K線:一種是綠色K線或紅色K線,有時可能是黑色K線或白色K線,這真的
42:31
you know depends on how you set your chart settings for but for most charts right you see the green
視你如何設定圖表而定,但對於大多數圖表來說,你看到的是綠色
42:35
or red so for green candle it simply means that the price has closed above the opening
或紅色。對於綠色K線,它僅僅意味著收盤價高於開盤價
42:43
opening price okay so in this case right you can see the green candle this over here will be the opening price
開盤價。好的,在這種情況下,你可以看到這根綠色K線,這裡會是開盤價
42:49
this over here will be the closing price what about this two black line over here and here very simple right the one at
這裡會是收盤價。那這兩條黑線(上下影線)又是什麼呢?很簡單,頂部的這條是
42:57
the top is the highest price of the candle and this over here is the lowest price of the candle
K線的最高價,而這裡的這條是K線的最低價
43:03
now you might be wondering hey right now what do you mean by off the candle so this
現在你可能會想,嘿,你說的「K線的上下影線」是什麼意思?這
43:06
depends on the time frame that you're using candlestick pattern so let's say for example
取決於你使用的K線型態時間框架。舉例來說
43:09
you are on the daily timeframe let's pull it daily okay so how do you interpret this on the daily time frame
你使用的是日線時間框架,我們就拉到日線。好的,那麼在日線時間框架上該如何解讀呢?
43:15
very simple this means this is the highest price point for the day this over here is the lowest
非常簡單,這意味著這是當天的最高價位,這裡是最低價位
43:21
price point for the day and this o here is the opening price of the day and this is the closing price of the day
今天的價格點位,而這個 o 是今天的開盤價,這是今天的收盤價
43:28
so this only holds true if you are you know looking at this candlestick pattern on
所以這只有在您查看日線圖上的 K 線圖形時才成立
43:33
the daily time frame if you change this to the weekly time frame then this is the highest price point of
如果您將其更改為週線圖,那麼這是當週的最高價點位
43:37
the week this is the low of the weight it's the open of the weight and this is the closing price of the weight
這是當週的低點,這是當週的開盤價,這是當週的收盤價
43:40
you get my point okay now let's have a look at the other inverse the inverse of the green pattern
您明白我的意思了。好的,現在讓我們看看另一種相反的,綠色圖形的相反形態
43:47
which is actually this is what we call a bearish pattern this is where the candle has closed below the
這實際上就是我們所說的空頭圖形,這是 K 線收在
43:52
opening price okay so for this one over here the opening price will be on top
開盤價下方的情況。好的,所以對於這一個,開盤價會在上方
43:56
open this is the closing there's again is the high and this is the low
開盤,這是收盤,這又是最高點,這是最低點
44:03
so the way to interpret this bearish candle is the same the only difference between a bearish and a bullish
所以解讀這根空頭 K 線的方式是相同的,空頭和多頭 K 線之間唯一的區別
44:08
candle is their opening and closing price for bullish the open is below and the close is on top right because
在於它們的開盤價和收盤價。對於多頭來說,開盤在下方,收盤在上方,對吧?因為
44:14
the the bar right has closed above the opening price this is bullish right this
這根 K 線收在開盤價上方,這是多頭,對吧?這
44:18
is like you know like a sign of strength where the buyers are in control they
就像是力量的象徵,買方掌握主導權,他們
44:22
have pushed the price and close above their opening price whereas this one is a
推升價格並收在他們的開盤價之上,而這一根是
44:26
bearish candle where the sellers are in control where they actually know close right be
空頭 K 線,賣方掌握主導權,他們實際上收在
44:31
below right where the opening price is so this is what we call a bearish candle so this is actually how you read a
開盤價的下方。所以這就是我們所說的空頭 K 線,這實際上就是您如何解讀 K 線圖形
44:36
candlestick pattern and to sum up what i just said this diagram will be useful
並總結我剛才所說的,這張圖表將會很有用
44:41
so you can see over here this is like a quick summary to what we've just covered this is the opening price closing price
所以您可以在這裡看到,這就像是我們剛剛涵蓋內容的快速總結,這是開盤價、收盤價
44:47
because this is a bullish candle this is the high this is the low likewise on the opposite
因為這是一根多頭 K 線,這是最高點,這是最低點。同樣地,在相反的
44:53
end of the spectrum this is a bearish candle the opening price is here closing price is here because this is a
端點,這是一根空頭 K 線,開盤價在這裡,收盤價在這裡,因為這是一根
44:58
bearish candle this tells you that the bar has closed below the opening price so that's why the close is below
空頭 K 線,這告訴您 K 線收在開盤價下方,所以收盤價在下方
45:05
the opening price open is here closes here this is the low of the candle and this is the
開盤價在這裡,收盤價在這裡,這是K線的低點,而這是
45:11
high of the candle actually the low of the candle is actually here okay so another terminology to explain is
K線的高點,實際上K線的低點是在這裡。好的,那麼另一個要解釋的術語是
45:16
sometimes you might be you might have heard of things like body wick so the body refers to the colored
有時候你可能聽過像實體、影線這樣的詞,實體指的是K線圖中
45:21
segment of the candlestick pattern so you can see that this colored area from here
有顏色的部分,所以你可以看到從這裡開始的這個有色區域
45:26
all the way down to here this is what we call the the body of the candle and you see the two black lines sticking
一直到下面這裡,這就是我們所說的K線實體,而你看這兩條伸出來的黑線,
45:32
out we call this the wick or upper shadow since this one is uh the top of the wig we call it upper shadow
我們稱之為影線或上影線,因為這個是影線的頂部,我們稱之為上影線,
45:38
or upper wick the one at the bottom we call this a lower shadow or lower wick and that's pretty much you
或上方影線,底部的這個我們稱之為下影線或下方影線。以上大概就是
45:43
know how you read a candlestick pattern so now moving on i want to share with you uh
你閱讀K線圖的方式。那麼現在接著,我想跟各位分享一些
45:48
some really useful candlestick patterns right to help you time your entry so you know when exactly to buy
真正實用的K線形態,來幫助你掌握進場時機,讓你知道確切的買入
45:54
or sell so let's move on so if you look at this one over here let's first talk about the bullish
或賣出時機。那麼我們繼續吧。如果你看這邊的這個,我們先來談談看漲
46:01
reversal candlestick patterns right it looks something like uh there are a few variations to it i'll
反轉的K線形態,它看起來像這樣,它有幾種變化型,我會
46:05
explain to you two that i find useful right in your trading journey first one is what we call a hammer so
在你的交易旅程中,解釋兩個我覺得很有用的形態。第一個是我們所說的錘子線(Hammer),那麼
46:11
let me explain to you the story right behind the hammer so the hammer again is a bullish candle
讓我跟你解釋錘子線背後的故事。錘子線 again 是一根看漲的K線,
46:16
so you know the opening price is here where is the low of the candle it's here where is the closing price it's
所以你知道開盤價在這裡,K線的低點在哪裡?在這裡。收盤價在哪裡?在
46:24
here where is the high of the candle it's here okay so let's say this is like you know
這裡。K線的高點在哪裡?在這裡。好的,假設這就像一個日線圖的K線,
46:29
a daily time frame candle so this is the opening price of the day closing price of the day high of the day
這是當天的開盤價、當天的收盤價、當天的最高點、
46:34
low of the day so let me explain to you know what's going on with this hammer pattern and why is it so
當天的最低點。那麼讓我跟你解釋一下這個錘子線形態發生了什麼事,以及為什麼它如此
46:39
significant so if you think about this right this actually tells you that you know when the market opened over here
重要。如果你思考一下,這其實告訴你,當市場在這裡開盤後,
46:43
the sellers they quickly dive in right and push the price lower all the way down you know near
賣方迅速湧入,並把價格一路推低,你知道的,接近
46:49
this lows of the day right then when things are looking doom and gloom right when things are looking
當天的低點,對吧?然後當情況看起來絕望黯淡,當情況看起來...
46:53
so bad right suddenly the buyers right now they got revived right you know inject themselves
對吧,很糟糕對吧,突然間買方,對吧,現在他們復活了,對吧,你知道他們給自己打了
46:58
with them maybe some steroids and push the price all the way up higher you know and finally closing near the highs
一些類固醇,然後把價格一路推高,你知道嗎,最後收在接近高點
47:03
right of the day so it's kind of like you know you watch movies right the good guy get beaten up
對吧,當天的高點,所以這有點像,你知道你看電影,對吧,好人被痛揍一頓
47:07
get trash and then suddenly you know they think of some some of their loved ones you know it's
被痛扁一頓,然後突然間,你知道他們想到一些他們愛的人,你知道嗎,
47:11
hurting them wrong you got to gain strength to overcome the battle and then they win the the battle and the
傷害了他們不對,你必須獲得力量來贏得這場戰鬥,然後他們贏得了這場戰鬥,然後
47:16
movie ended so it's kind of the same story right where the sellers are in control pushing down
電影結束了,所以這故事有點類似,對吧,賣方掌控局勢,把價格往下壓
47:21
the price and then sellers you know kind of like get strong you know those cheesy movie lines and they revive and they you
然後賣方,你知道變得強壯,你知道那些俗氣的電影台詞,然後他們復活了,他們
47:26
know beat the bad guys and they're victorious so same as this hammer over here right so
知道打敗了壞人,他們勝利了,所以跟這邊的這根錘子線一樣,對吧,所以
47:30
basically the sellers got overwhelmed by the buyers and the price right closed bullishly closed near the highs of the
基本上賣方被買方淹沒了,價格,對吧,以牛市收盤,收在接近當天的
47:36
day so this is a sign of strength telling you that the buyers are in control
高點,所以這是強勢的訊號,告訴你買方正在掌控局勢
47:42
so another pattern right the bullish engulfing pattern is actually a similar variation to this one but this
所以另一個型態,對吧,牛市吞噬型態實際上是跟這個類似的變化,但這個
47:47
one is a one candle pattern okay whereas this one here is a two candle pattern so this one requires
是單K線型態,好的,而這邊這個是雙K線型態,所以這個需要
47:52
two candle to define it as a bullish engulfing pattern but the story behind it it's the same right
兩根K線來定義為牛市吞噬型態,但背後的故事是一樣的,對吧
47:57
let me explain so if you look at the bullish and culving pattern you can see that on the first day
讓我解釋一下,所以如果你看牛市吞噬型態,你可以看到第一天
48:02
price opened here and then the sellers took control and closed right near the lows of the
價格在這裡開盤,然後賣方掌控局勢,收在接近當天的
48:07
day so the sellers were celebrating right way you know you know we're victorious
低點,所以賣方正在慶祝,對吧,你知道我們勝利了
48:10
if you watched avengers endgame right now how is it like right where did you know the bad guys they were winning the
如果你現在看《復仇者聯盟:終局之戰》,對吧,那時是什麼樣子,對吧,你知道壞人他們贏得了
48:14
war then what happened is that you know uh you know all the good guys started to
戰爭,然後發生了什麼事,你知道嗎,呃,你知道所有好人開始
48:19
assemble right and then push back and then they win the war you know
集結,對吧,然後反擊,然後他們贏得了戰爭,你知道嗎
48:23
so in this case the same thing right you know the sellers stopped their winning and then the good guys suddenly come in
所以在這個情況下,同樣的事情,對吧,你知道賣方停止了他們的勝利,然後好人突然進場了
48:28
right reinforced together you know avengers assemble and then you know
右邊強化後,你知道復仇者集結,然後你知道
48:31
they push the price up higher right and close near the highest of the day and the buyers you know they pretty much you
他們把價格推得更高,對吧,收在接近當日最高點,而買方你知道他們幾乎
48:35
know won this battle between the the war between buyers and sellers so in this case
贏得了買方和賣方之間的戰爭,所以在這種情況下
48:40
bullish engulfing pattern similar to the hammer you know sellers were in control at first then
看漲吞沒型態,類似於錘子線,你知道賣方最初掌控局面,然後
48:45
they got overwhelmed by the buyers and you know they pretty much won the war temporarily
他們被買方淹沒,你知道他們暫時贏得了這場戰爭
48:51
so this is what we call a bullish reversal candlestick patterns hammer and bullish engulfing patterns
所以這就是我們所說的看漲反轉K線型態,錘子線和看漲吞沒型態
48:56
are useful ones to know so if you you know are trading the markets right you notice the price
是值得了解的實用型態,所以如果你,你知道在交易市場時,你注意到價格
49:01
is in an uptrend it's at your area of value like at support and then the hammer forms right this tells you right
處於上升趨勢,它在你的價值區域,比如支撐位,然後錘子線形成,對吧,這告訴你,對吧
49:06
that it's time to enter a trade so a quick illustration could be something like
是時候進場交易了,所以一個快速的說明可能是像
49:11
this let's say let me just get rid of the bars here first oops
這樣,假設,讓我先把這裡的K線圖清除,哎呀
49:16
okay so if you look at this right let's say market is in an uptrend comes back to your area of value here
好的,如果你看這裡,對吧,假設市場處於上升趨勢,回到你的價值區域這裡
49:22
okay then you got your entry triggered hammer okay what this tells you that now at
好的,然後你的進場訊號被觸發,錘子線,好的,這告訴你,現在在
49:26
this point right the buyers have you know win the the tug of war between buyers and sellers
這個時間點,對吧,買方你知道暫時贏得了買方和賣方之間的拉鋸戰
49:32
temporarily and this is where you can look to enter your trade on the next candle
這就是你可以在下一根K線
49:36
open okay we'll cover some trading examples later on but this pretty much to let you know where this entry trigger
開盤時考慮進場的地方,好的,我們稍後會介紹一些交易範例,但這主要是讓你知道這個進場訊號
49:42
stands right in the grand scheme of things so now let's move on and talk about bearish reversal candlestick
在整體規劃中的位置,對吧,所以現在讓我們繼續討論看跌反轉K線
49:48
pattern so there are again two to share with you number one shooting star so let me illustrate to
型態,所以一樣有兩個要分享給你,第一個是射擊之星,所以讓我向你說明
49:52
you the story right behind a shooting star so you can see over here the price
射擊之星背後的故事,對吧,所以你可以看到在這裡,價格
49:57
opened at this price point this is the close this is the low and this is the high
開在這個價位,這是收盤價,這是最低點,這是最高點
50:03
so what is the story right behind the shooting star so when the market first opened right the buyers right they were
所以射擊之星背後的故事是什麼,對吧,當市場最初開盤時,對吧,買方,對吧,他們是
50:08
victorious right they quickly pushed the price up higher drive the price of near the highest and
勝利的一方迅速推高價格,將價格推至接近最高點
50:13
you know beating the chess you know celebrating suddenly right the sellers came in to
你知道下棋,你知道突然間在慶祝,結果賣方進場
50:17
control and push the price all the way down closing near the lows so an analogy that
掌控局勢並將價格一路壓低,收在接近低點的位置。所以一個比喻是
50:23
i can give you is like you know you go for your you you got back your exam results
你可以想像,你知道你回去看你的考試成績
50:29
and you realize man i got an a why you're so excited i got an a and after which you realize that a is
然後你發現,天啊我拿到A,你為什麼這麼興奮,我拿到A了,但之後你意識到這個A
50:36
not what you think it means a for epson and you come crashing down again so it's the same
不是你想像的那樣,A代表Average(平均),然後你又崩潰了。所以這跟
50:40
thing for this shooting star you're really high you thought you know you're really happy
這顆流星線的情況一樣,你拉得很高,你以為你真的很開心
50:45
and then your whole will just come crashing down so same for this right the buyers
然後你的意志就整個崩潰了。所以這也是一樣的,買方
50:48
they took control at the start only buyers to control at the start only to get overwhelmed by the sellers
一開始掌控局勢,一開始只有買方掌控,結果被賣方壓制
50:53
and the price closed near the lows of the day okay so likewise there's another one what we call a
然後價格收在接近當天的低點。好的,同樣的,還有另一種我們稱之為
51:00
bearish engulfing pattern meaning it's similar just that this time round it uses two candles to represent
看跌吞沒型態(Bearish Engulfing Pattern),意思是它很相似,只是這次它用兩根K線來呈現
51:05
this uh this this uh so-called story so i'll explain right so again here is the opening price
這個,呃,這個,呃,所謂的故事。所以我來解釋一下,這裡一樣是開盤價
51:11
this is the low this is the high and this is the close so you can see that you know on this day the buyers
這是最低價,這是最高價,這是收盤價。所以你可以看到,在這一天買方
51:18
were in control they managed to close near the highest of the day they were really happy really excited right this
掌控局勢,他們成功收在接近當天的最高點,他們真的很開心很興奮,對吧,這
51:22
is good news yay the next day sellers quickly took control near the opening price at the
是好消息,耶。第二天賣方迅速在接近開盤價的位置
51:28
opening price and drive the price down and close near the lows of the day so this you can see right this
掌控局勢,在開盤價附近並將價格打壓下去,收在接近當天的低點。所以你可以看到,這個
51:35
bearish candle is even more powerful than the earlier one why do i say that because if you look at the body
看跌K線比前一根更強勁。我為什麼這麼說?因為如果你看這根
51:40
of this red candle this body all right remember body is simply the colored portion of a candle
紅K線的實體,這個實體,好的,記住實體就是K線有顏色的部分
51:45
this body is even bigger than the previous bullish candle body right this bodies
這個實體甚至比前一根看漲K線的實體還大,對吧,這個實體
51:51
engulf or cover this first candle body so this is why we call this a bearish engulfing pattern because this body of
吞沒或覆蓋了第一根K線的實體。所以這就是為什麼我們稱之為看跌吞沒型態,因為這個實體
51:56
this candle has engulfed has covered the body of the previous day's candle
這根K線已經吞噬並覆蓋了前一天K線的實體
52:01
okay so let me just walk you through a few chat examples so you know how to actually spot you
好的,那麼讓我帶您看幾個圖表範例,讓您知道如何實際辨識
52:06
know bullish engulfing pattern bearish engulfing pattern and stuff like that so you can see over here on the this
看漲吞噬形態、看跌吞噬形態等等,所以您可以在這裡看到
52:12
chart over here aussie against us dollar this is what we call a bearish engulfing pattern
這張澳元兌美元的圖表,這就是我們所說的看跌吞噬形態
52:17
see how this body of this candle has engulfed has covered the body of the previous candle
看這根K線的實體如何吞噬並覆蓋了前一根K線的實體
52:22
okay and if you look over here this is what we call a hammer look at this candle over here
好的,如果您看這裡,這就是我們所說的錘子線,看看這根K線
52:28
this is what we call a hammer right we can see the long wick at the bottom right rejecting these
這就是我們所說的錘子線,對吧?我們可以看到底部有很長的下影線,拒絕了這些
52:32
lower prices okay let's see what else uh this is what we call a shooting star i would say this
較低的價格。好的,我們再看看其他的,uh,這就是我們所說的射之星,我會說這
52:40
over here notice this long wick up higher right in fact some of you if you want to call this a bearish
在這裡,注意這根較高的上影線,對吧,事實上,如果您想稱之為看跌
52:45
engulfing pattern i wouldn't say you're wrong because this candle has actually covered the body of the previous candle
吞噬形態,我不能說您錯了,因為這根K線確實也覆蓋了前一根K線的
52:49
as well so one thing to to note is that when you are learning
實體。所以有一點要注意的是,當您在學習
52:53
understanding candlestick patterns don't get too caught up with the name the exact definition because the concept is
理解K線形態時,不要太執著於名稱或精確的定義,因為真正重要的是
52:58
really what matters right who's winning the war right by how much right how much how much
概念,對吧?是誰在這場戰爭中獲勝,對吧?贏了多少,對吧?有多少
53:02
rejection of higher prices are there how long is the wick relative to the body this is what matters not
對高價的拒絕,影線相對於實體有多長,這些才是真正重要的,而不是
53:06
really you know the exact name and the exact meaning behind it because if you look at for example this
真正的名稱及其背後的確切含義,因為如果您看例如這個
53:10
this pattern over here which i didn't cover okay let me ask you do you think this pattern
這裡的形態,我沒有涵蓋到,好的,讓我問您,您認為這裡的
53:16
over here is it bullish or bearish well if you learn how to read the
這個形態是看漲還是看跌?如果您學會如何解讀
53:20
price section or read the story behind candlestick patterns you will agree that this is actually a
價格區間或閱讀K線形態背後的故事,您會同意這其實是
53:26
bullish candle this tells you right at one point the opening price is here the sellers drive the price down lower
一根看漲K線,這告訴您在某個時間點,開盤價在這裡,賣方將價格壓低至
53:32
near this low then the sellers took control and pushed the price back up near the
接近這個低點,然後賣方掌控局勢並將價格推回接近
53:36
highest of the day so you can see that this is actually a bullish candlestick pattern and is what
最高點,所以你可以看到這其實是一個看漲的燭台形態,我們稱之為
53:40
we call a dragonfly doji i didn't i didn't teach that to you but you know
蜻蜓十字(Dragonfly Doji)。我雖然沒有教過你,但你知道
53:46
using the concept of you know uh open high low and close how where the price open whether the price
利用開盤、最高、最低和收盤的概念,價格在哪裡開盤、價格
53:51
closed you know who's in control you should know that you know hey this is actually a bullish candlestick pattern
在哪裡收盤,你知道是誰在掌控局面,你應該知道這其實是一個看漲的燭台形態。
53:57
all right so let's have a look at the one or two more before we move on so look at this chart again you can see
好,所以在繼續之前,我們再來看一兩個例子。再看這張圖,你可以看到
54:01
you know this candlestick patterns are pretty much quite common on the chart this one here
這些燭台形態在圖表上非常常見。這裡這一個
54:07
we have a bearish engulfing pattern this one here looks like a shooting star but a shooting star we have the red body a
是一個看跌吞沒形態(Bearish Engulfing Pattern)。這裡這一個看起來像射星(Shooting Star),但射星通常有紅色實體,
54:14
bearish close but this one here we have a green body but just because this body is green you won't say hey this is
代表看跌收盤。但這一個有綠色實體,僅僅因為實體是綠色的,你不能說這是
54:18
bullish right no this is still a bearish candlestick pattern a bearish reversal candlestick
看漲,對吧?不,這仍然是一個看跌的燭台形態,一個看跌反轉的燭台
54:23
pattern the only difference is the body is a little bit green right telling me that the price is
形態。唯一的區別是實體稍微有點綠色,對吧,告訴我價格
54:27
closed slightly above the opening price but the key thing to pay attention to is this
收在開盤價之上一點點,但關鍵要注意的是這
54:31
long wick over here right this tells you that you know the buyers at one point in time
根很長的上影線,這告訴你買方在某個時間點
54:35
were over here and they got overwhelmed by the sellers pushing the price near right
曾經推到這裡,但後來被賣方壓制,將價格推低至接近
54:39
the lows of the day okay so again remember the story behind the candlestick pattern and not try to you
當日低點。所以,再次記住燭台形態背後的故事,而不是試圖去
54:44
know understand or memorize every single pattern out there because you will get overwhelmed
理解或死記硬背每一種形態,因為你會感到不知所措。
54:50
so moving on now let's talk about the second right entry trigger technique that you can use which
那麼現在繼續,我們來談談第二種右側入場觸發技術,你可以使用,
54:57
is called the moving average break okay so now i want to share with you
稱為移動平均線突破(Moving Average Break)。所以現在我想分享給你
55:02
another technique that you can use to time your entry this technique is what i call the moving average break so
另一種可以用來擇時入場的技術。這種技術我稱之為移動平均線突破。為了
55:09
to illustrate how this works right so just imagine if the market is in an uptrend right a series of higher highs
說明其運作原理,想像一下如果市場處於上升趨勢,對吧,一系列更高的高點
55:14
and higher lows and then it makes a pullback so now the question is you know at which point
和更高的低點,然後它進行了回調。所以現在的問題是,你知道在哪個點位
55:18
of the pullback do you enter a trade so earlier we talked about candlestick patterns right how you can use tools
在回檔時,您該如何進場?之前我們談過了K線型態,像是如何運用工具
55:22
like hammer bullish engulfing pattern to time your entry on the pullback so the other
如錘形線、多頭吞噬型態來在回檔時掌握進場時機。那麼另一種
55:26
technique that you can use is what i call the moving average break so what you want to do in essence is to overlay
您可以使用的技巧,我稱之為「移動平均線突破」。本質上您要做的是在圖表上
55:31
this chart with a short-term moving average okay so let's say uh let me just get this one
標示一條短期移動平均線。好的,讓我們假設... 讓我切換到這個
55:36
over here let's say this this is a shorter moving average like this right heading down lower because
圖表。假設這是一條像這樣的短期移動平均線,因為
55:41
the market currently is making a pullback right now so what you're looking for is for the price
目前市場正在進行回檔,所以您要尋找的是價格
55:45
to actually break and close above this short-term moving average so let's say this black line is the price you need to
實際突破並收盤在這條短期移動平均線之上。假設這條黑線是價格,您需要
55:51
break and close above this short-term moving average
突破並收盤在這條短期移動平均線之上。
55:55
so when this moving average is broken when the prices break above it above it we call this a moving average break
所以當這條移動平均線被突破,當價格突破並站上它時,我們稱之為移動平均線突破。
56:01
and this is where you can enter a trade so the the rules that you can use is this right
這就是您可以進場的時機。所以您可以使用的規則如下:
56:06
for a long long entry you can enter right when the price breaks above the five period moving
做多進場時,您可以在價格突破五期移動平均線時進場;
56:11
average and for a short entry you can enter when the price breaks below
做空進場時,您可以在價格跌破五期移動平均線時進場。
56:15
the five period moving average and one thing to be clear is that this entry trigger like the candlestick
有一點要釐清的是,這種進場觸發訊號,就像K線型態一樣,
56:22
pattern is not meant to be used in isolation it's meant to be used within the context of the market right market
不能單獨使用,而是要在市場的背景脈絡下使用,也就是市場結構、價值區塊,
56:27
structure area of value and then finally look at the entry trigger
最後才是看進場觸發訊號。
56:31
so let me share with you a few examples of how this moving average break works so over here let's say you have
讓我分享幾個移動平均線突破如何運作的範例。這裡,假設您看到
56:37
this canadian yen you can see that this market is in an uptrend and it's making a pullback over here
這個加幣日圓(CAD/JPY)的走勢。您可以看到市場處於上升趨勢,並在這裡進行回檔,
56:42
let's pull back so now you might be wondering hey when is you know
正在拉回。那麼您現在可能會想,嘿,什麼時候才是
56:47
alert is it the right time to you know enter a trade so again you can use the concept of the moving average break
該進場的警示或正確時機?同樣地,您可以運用移動平均線突破的概念,
56:51
overlay with the five period moving average if you can't find an indicator on this
標示五期移動平均線。如果您在這找不到指標...
56:55
platform just go to indicator look for moving average right called moving average
在平台中前往指標,尋找名為移動平均線的指標
56:59
click on this and you'll find it so i already have it on my chart i'm just going to release this
點擊它,你就能找到,我已經在圖表上設置好了,我現在要把它放開
57:03
and you can see that the five period moving average is this great line that you see over here this
你可以看到五期移動平均線就是你在這裡看到的這條灰線
57:09
this rate squiggly line on the chart okay this one here so what we are looking for
圖表上這條有點彎曲的線,好的,就是這裡,所以我們在尋找的是
57:13
is for the price to break and close above this five period moving average to timeout entry to enter a long trade
價格突破並收盤在這條五期移動平均線之上,以作為做多交易的進場時機
57:21
since this market is in an uptrend so you can see over here on this candle this green candle it has break
因為這個市場處於上升趨勢,所以你可以看到在這根K線,這根綠色K線,它已經突破
57:30
and close above the five period moving average this tells us that it's time to buy
並收盤在五期移動平均線之上,這告訴我們現在是買入的時機
57:33
and enter on the next candle open which is can be on this candle here so you can enter on the open
並在下一根K線開盤時進場,也就是可以在這根K線這裡進場,所以你可以在這根K線的開盤價
57:39
of this candle here so this is how the moving average break technique works
進場,移動平均線突破技術就是這樣運作的
57:44
so one more example again look at this market has broke out
再來看一個例子,看這個市場已經突破
57:51
and then now it has made a pullback okay so now at which point of the pullback do we enter this long trade
然後現在它進行了回檔,好的,那麼我們應該在回檔的哪個點位進場做多呢
58:00
since we know that this market is in an uptrend it just broke out of resistance over here
因為我們知道這個市場處於上升趨勢,它剛剛在這裡突破了阻力區
58:04
this is resistance price broke out just made a pullback when exactly do we enter so if you don't want to use candlestick
這是阻力位,價格突破後進行了回檔,我們到底要在什麼時候進場?所以如果你不想使用K線
58:09
patterns you can use the moving average break wait for the price to break and close
型態,你可以使用移動平均線突破法,等待價格突破並收盤
58:12
above the five period moving average to get on board the trade so this actually happened over
在五期移動平均線之上以進場交易,這實際上發生在
58:18
here okay so this is where this is a entry trigger this is where you have the moving average break and can look to
這裡,好的,所以這裡就是進場觸發點,這裡就是移動平均線突破的地方,你可以考慮
58:23
enter on the next candle open which is entry will be or the opening price of this candle
在下一根K線開盤時進場,進場點就是這根K線的
58:28
here okay so this is a moving average brake technique relatively straightforward
開盤價,好的,這就是移動平均線突破技術,相對來說很簡單
58:33
so let's do a quick recap number one right entry trigger tells you when exactly to
我們來快速總結一下,第一,進場觸發點會告訴你確切的
58:39
buy or sell then i've shared with you you can use you know things like candlestick
買入或賣出時機,然後我跟大家分享過,你可以使用像是K線
58:43
patterns and moving average break as your entry trigger so at this point you know when exactly to enter
圖形與均線突破作為你的進場觸發點,此時你就知道該在何時進場
58:50
a trade so now this brings us to the next section right when do we exit the trade what if the market moves
一筆交易。那麼現在讓我們進入下一個環節:我們該在何時出場?如果市場走勢
58:55
against us where do we cut our loss what if the market moves in our favor where do we take profit all this and
與我們預期相反,我們該在哪裡止損?如果市場走勢符合我們預期,我們又該在哪裡獲利了結?所有這些以及
59:00
more in the next section okay now let's do a quick recap shall we entry trigger tells you when exactly to
更多內容都在下一個環節。好的,現在讓我們快速回顧一下,好嗎?進場觸發點告訴你該在何時
59:09
buy or sell and i shared with you a couple of entry trigger techniques you can use
買入或賣出,我與你分享了幾個你可以使用的
59:13
right namely candlestick patterns you can use things like hammer shooting star engulfing pattern to time your entry
進場觸發點技巧,對吧?也就是K線圖形,你可以使用像是錘子線、流星線、吞噬線等來把握進場時機,
59:18
then i also share with you the moving average break technique right on how you can
接著我也與你分享了均線突破技巧,對吧?關於你該如何
59:21
actually use the five period moving average to help you time your entry as well and one last thing to note is
實際運用五日均線來協助你把握進場時機。最後還有一點要注意的是,
59:27
that entry trigger is meant to be used within the context of the market i'm not saying no if you spot this price pattern
進場觸發點是為了在市場的脈絡中使用。我並不是說,只要你發現這個價格圖形,
59:32
if you spot the moving average break hit the buy button no it's meant to be used within the context of the market
只要你發現均線突破,就按下買入鍵。不,它是為了在市場的脈絡中使用,
59:38
namely no market structure area of value and then your entry trigger and now
也就是在確認市場結構、價值區域之後,才使用你的進場觸發點。而現在,
59:43
this brings us to the next point right when exactly do you exit the trade what if the market
這將我們帶向下一個重點:你究竟該在何時出場?如果市場
59:48
moves against you where do you cut your loss what if the market moves in your favor
走勢與你預期相反,你該在哪裡止損?如果市場走勢符合你的預期,
59:52
where do you take profits so all this and more in the next section okay so in this section it's all about
你又該在哪裡獲利了結?所有這些以及更多內容都在下一個環節。好的,所以在這個環節,我們將探討
1:00:05
exits and when it comes when it comes to your exits there are two parts to it first part is this
出場策略。當談到出場時,它有兩個部分。第一部分是:
1:00:10
where do you exit if you're wrong this is also known as your stop loss number two where to exit if you're right
如果你錯了,你該在哪裡出場?這也被稱為你的停損點。第二,如果你對了,你該在哪裡出場?
1:00:17
this is also known as your take profit so let's study stop-loss first right where do you set a
這也被稱為你的獲利了結點。那麼,讓我們先來研究停損,對吧?你該在哪裡設置
1:00:22
proper stop-loss right when you're trading so you don't get stopped out too early
一個適當的停損點?這樣你在交易時,才不會過早被停損出場。
1:00:27
so when it comes to stop-loss i only have one technique there's one technique where it serves
所以當談到停損時,我只有一個技巧。有一種技巧能服務於
1:00:31
my trading right to to set a proper stop-loss so the one technique that i want to share with you
我的交易,來設置一個適當的停損點。那麼,我想與你分享的這個技巧是
1:00:35
is based on this concept you should place your stop-loss at the level which invalidates your trading setup i know
是基於這個概念:你應該將停損點設在使你的交易策略失效的價位。我知道
1:00:43
that sounds a mouthful so let me explain so let me let me ask you right if you look at a
這聽起來有點拗口,所以我來解釋一下。那麼,讓我問你:如果你看一個
1:00:49
let's say a trending market market is in an uptrend let me ask you at which point right
假設是趨勢市場,市場處於上升趨勢,我問你,在哪個點位,
1:00:55
would you say that you know this uptrend is invalidated or this uptrend is destroyed
你會說你知道這個上升趨勢已經失效,或者這個上升趨勢已經被破壞?
1:01:01
will it be at here let's call it point a here point b or here
會是在這裡嗎?我們稱之為A點,這裡B點,還是這裡
1:01:08
point c a b or c take three seconds one two three well if you ask me okay i would say the
C點?A、B還是C?花三秒鐘想一想,一、二、三。好吧,如果你問我,我會說
1:01:15
level that this trend will get invalidated is at point c because if you think about
這個趨勢會失效的價位是在C點,因為如果你想想看,
1:01:20
this if the market retraces down to point c all the way down here then clearly this uptrend isn't
如果市場回調到C點,一路跌到這裡,那麼顯然這個上升趨勢
1:01:29
looking like how an uptrend should be which is a series of higher highs and higher low so your stop-loss should be
看起來不像一個上升趨勢該有的樣子,也就是一系列的更高的高點和更高的低點。所以你的停損點應該在
1:01:34
at c right which invalidates this uptrend now why not a or b because if you think about this if
C點,對吧?這會使這個上升趨勢失效。那為什麼不是A點或B點呢?因為如果你想想看,如果
1:01:38
the market retraced to a and continue higher this still looks like an uptrend if he
市場回調到A點然後繼續走高,這看起來仍然像是一個上升趨勢。如果它
1:01:42
traces to b goes up higher this uptrend is still pretty much intact so your stop loss right the key thing
回調到B點再往上走,這個上升趨勢基本上還是完好的。所以你的停損點,關鍵在於
1:01:47
that i'm trying to bring across is that it should be at a level which invalidates or destroy your
我想強調的是,它應該設在一個使你的交易策略失效或被破壞的價位。
1:01:52
trading setup so if your trading setup is a trend trading setup your stop loss should be at a level
所以,如果你的交易策略是趨勢交易策略,你的停損點應該設在一個價位,
1:01:57
right where your uptrend looks funny it doesn't quite look like an uptrend anymore so another example
在那裡你的上升趨勢看起來很奇怪,不再像一個上升趨勢了。所以再舉個例子,
1:02:02
let's say you are trading support resistance market is in range goes up down up down up down
假設你在交易支撐阻力位,市場處於區間震盪,上上下下,
1:02:09
then this is the lows of the range this is otherwise known as support bounce once twice
這是區間的低點,也就是所謂的支撐位,反彈一次、兩次、
1:02:13
three and here fourth time so let me ask you and which let's say you're long over
三次,然後在這裡第四次。那麼我問你,假設你在
1:02:18
here at this price point where do you put your stop loss well using this concept right your stop
這裡這個價位做多,你把停損點設在哪裡?好吧,用這個概念,你的停損點
1:02:22
loss should be placed at a level which invalidates your trading setup so at which point on this chart
應該設在一個使你的交易策略失效的價位。那麼在這張圖表上,哪一個點位?
1:02:29
will support be broken is it over here a let's call this a
會不會跌破支撐 它是在這裡嗎 我們稱之為 a 或 b 或 c 再次強調 我相信你會同意 這很明顯 應該是 c
1:02:36
b or c and again it's i'm sure you agree right it's a no-brainer it will be c because
因為如果價格下跌更低並觸及 c 點 這個支撐區域就稍微被跌破了
1:02:43
if the price hits down lower and hits at point c this area of support is slightly broken
如果它達到 a 或 b 點 支撐可能仍然完好 因為你知道支撐是圖表上的一個區域
1:02:48
if he reaches a or b support could still be intact because you know the support is an area on your chart and it didn't
它甚至沒有跌破 a 和 b 的支撐低點 但對於 c 點 你知道它以相當大的幅度跌破了
1:02:54
even breach the lows of support for a and b right but for ces you know exit it
很有可能 支撐已經被跌破了
1:02:58
exited it by a decent margin and there's a good chance that you know support is broken
你的交易設定已經失效 這就是我所說的失效
1:03:02
and your trading setup is invalidated and that's what i mean by you know invalidation so now now here
現在來到了所謂的量化部分 你如何確保你的停損點
1:03:09
comes the so-called quantitative part of it how do you know make sure that your stop-loss
設定方式正確 且每次都保持一致 因為如果你看圖表
1:03:14
right is set the proper way consistently each and every time because i mean if you look at
你可以目測這個水準 那個水準 但如果你這樣做 在接下來的 50 萬筆交易中
1:03:19
the chart you can eyeball right this level that level but if you do that you know over the next 500 000 trades you
你會發現你的主觀性可能會滲入 這會導致你在長期無法
1:03:23
can see that your subjectivity might creep in right and you know cause you to not set your
以一致的方式正確設定停損點 所以正確的做法是
1:03:28
stop-loss properly in a consistent manner for the long run so the way to
你要使用 ATR 的概念 也就是平均真實波幅
1:03:33
do it right is that you want to use the concept of the atr which stands for average true range
你要將停損點設在價值區域之外一個 ATR 的位置 在我談論這個技巧之前
1:03:38
you want to set your stop loss one atr beyond the area of value so before i talk about this technique
讓我先跟你分享 ATR 是什麼 ATR 代表平均真實波幅
1:03:43
right let me share with you what atr stands for so atr stands for average true
所以是平均真實波幅 讓我給你快速上一下這個指標的課
1:03:48
range right so average true range so let me give you a quick crash course on this
這個指標是基於波動性的 所以當波動性高時
1:03:57
indicator so this indicator is a volatility base indicator so when volatility is high the
這個指標的數值就會高 如果市場波動性低
1:04:02
value of this indicator will be high if volatility of the market is low
這個指標的數值就會低 所以如果你不知道波動性是什麼
1:04:07
the value of this indicator will be low so for those of you who don't know what volatility is
換句話說 它衡量的是在給定時間內價格移動了多少
1:04:12
in other words it measures right how much did the price move right over a given period if it
換句話說,它衡量的是價格在給定時間內移動了多少,如果它
1:04:17
moves a lot like you know a huge percentage volatility is high okay if it didn't
波動很大,你知道的,波動率非常高,如果它
1:04:22
move much you know like maybe 0.1 percent a day 0.05 very small percentage change on a day-to-day
波動不大,你知道的,也許每天 0.1%,0.05%,非常小的每日百分比
1:04:27
basis we can say that volatility is low when volatility is high the average true range
變化,我們可以說波動率很低,當波動率很高時,平均真實震幅
1:04:33
indicator value is high when volatility is low average true indicator value is low okay
指標數值很高,當波動率很低時,平均真實震幅指標數值很低,好的
1:04:39
so one thing to be clear this indicator doesn't measure the trend it measures
所以有一點要清楚,這個指標不衡量趨勢,它衡量的是
1:04:44
volatility so let's have a look at how this indicator work so what do i mean by not one atr be
波動率,所以我們來看看這個指標是如何運作的,我說的「不超過價值區域的一個 ATR」是什麼意思呢?
1:04:51
beyond the area of value so let's say let's look at the chart shall we so this is brand crude oil in our time
假設我們來看看圖表好吗?這是我們時間框架下的布蘭特原油,所以
1:04:59
frame so let's say for example okay price came into this area of value this 50 period moving average okay so
假設例如,價格進入了這個價值區域,這個 50 期移動平均線,好的,所以
1:05:08
let's say you want to go long and enter on the next candle open maybe you think that you know this is a valid
假設你想做多,並在下一根 K 線開盤時進場,也許你認為這是一個有效的
1:05:13
trading setup and you go along at the opening price where do you set your stop loss why you
交易設定,你在開盤價做多,你的停損點設在哪裡?為什麼你
1:05:17
you want to set it right one atr below your area of value so in this case let's say this uh this
想把它設在你的價值區域下方剛好一個 ATR 的位置?所以在這個情況下,假設這個
1:05:24
low over here is your area of value is the the low of this uh near the 50 period
低點在這裡是你的價值區域,是這個接近 50 期
1:05:29
moving average this is the swing low at that point in time so let me just cover the scandal at this point in time
移動平均線的低點,這是當時的波段低點,所以讓我遮住當時的 K 線
1:05:34
this is the swing low right the lowest point of this 50 period
這是波段低點,對吧?這個 50 期
1:05:39
area of value so what you want to do is to pull out the atr indicator just search for atr
價值區域的最低點,所以你要做的是把 ATR 指標叫出來,只要搜尋 ATR
1:05:44
click on this comes up this one at the bottom go to settings i like to use a 20 period atr and like to use
點擊這個,它會出現,下面這個,去設定,我喜歡使用 20 期 ATR,並喜歡使用
1:05:50
sma click ok so how do you interpret this very simple so remember atr indicator is a volatility based
SMA(簡單移動平均),按確定,所以你如何解讀這個?非常簡單,記住 ATR 指標是基於波動率的
1:05:58
indicator when volatility is high the value goes up volatility is low
指標,當波動率很高時,數值上升,波動率很低時
1:06:03
value goes down so if you look at this portion here this atr value is increasing over time
數值下降,所以如果你看這一部分,這裡的 ATR 數值隨著時間增加
1:06:09
why is that because if you look at the chart from here all the way down to here
為什麼會這樣?因為如果你看從這裡一直到這裡的圖表
1:06:13
notice the range of the candles from here to here what's happening
注意從這裡到這裡的K線範圍 發生了什麼事
1:06:19
the range of the candles here are pretty much increasing in size so when the range of
這裡的K線範圍大小幾乎在增加 所以當K線的範圍
1:06:25
the candles are increasing in size it tells you that the market is moving more so that's why your atr value is
增加時 表示市場波動更大 這就是為什麼你的ATR值
1:06:31
increasing higher during this period and likewise if you look at this why is this atr value here
在這段期間會上升 同樣地 如果你看這裡 為什麼這裡的ATR值
1:06:36
going down well just need to look at a chart you look at from here to here you notice
會下降 只需要看圖表 從這裡到這裡 你會注意到
1:06:41
that the range of this candles from here to here is decreasing in size market is moving lesser volatility is
從這裡到這裡的K線範圍大小在減少 市場波動較小 波動率
1:06:48
decreasing that's why volatility here is heading lower make sense
在下降 這就是為什麼這裡的波動率正在走低 有道理
1:06:52
okay so now how do you use this volatility concept to set the proper stop-loss so this is
好 那麼現在如何運用這個波動率概念來設置適當的止損 這是
1:06:58
what we're going to cover next so i mentioned earlier you want to set your stop-loss 1atr
我們接下來要探討的內容 我之前提到過 你希望將止損設在
1:07:02
below the area of value right this is this is an uptrend so first and foremost what you want to
價值區域下方1ATR的位置 這是上升趨勢 首先你必須
1:07:07
do is to find out the current atr value in this case it's one dollar 1.195
找出目前的ATR值 在這個案例中是1.195美元
1:07:14
simple because it's stated here then what is the value of this swing low over here so looking at this trading view
很簡單 因為它就標示在這裡 那麼這裡這個波段低點的值是多少 看這個Trading View
1:07:19
chart it tells me that the low is 63.176 so what i'll do is i'll take 63.176 one seven 63.176 which is the lowest
圖表 它告訴我低點是63.176 所以我會做的是 取63.176 63.176 也就是這裡的最低
1:07:29
price point here and i minus one atr which is this value here 1.195
價格點 然後減去1ATR 也就是這裡的值1.195
1:07:36
and this gives me i'm going to calculate this with my head because i suck at you know this mental calculation
這樣我就得到 我要用心算來計算 因為我在心算方面很不擅長
1:07:42
trusty calculator is here 63.176 minus 1.195 gives me 61.981 of course you don't have
可靠的計算機在這裡 63.176減去1.195得到61.981 當然你不需要
1:07:51
to be so exact to the you know exact uh fake right so you can just make it like
算得這麼精確 你知道精確到小數點後三位 所以你可以直接把它變成
1:07:57
61.9 nine or 62 if you want or 61.95 you want to give it more buffer
61.99 或者62 如果你想要 或者61.95 如果你想給更多緩衝空間
1:08:04
so what this means right you're going to take this value let's say 61.99 and that will be your stop-loss level so
所以這意味著 你會取這個值 比如說61.99 這將是你的止損水平 所以
1:08:09
we're just going to take this tool over here let's call it the horizontal line i'm
我們就用這裡的工具 我們稱之為水平線 我
1:08:12
going to change this to rate so it signifies our stop-loss and the value is 61.99
要將這裡改成 rate,這樣它就代表我們的停損點,數值是 61.99
1:08:20
okay there we go so how do you interpret this now so very simple so from this
好的,這樣就完成了,那麼該如何解讀這個訊號呢?非常簡單,從這個極低點到這條紅線
1:08:26
extreme low over here to this red line over here okay this red line is one atr
這裡,好的,這條紅線就是一個 ATR
1:08:35
so in other words this is your stop loss okay so if let's say i rather this is the uh
換句話說,這就是你的停損點,好的,所以如果說,或者說這是
1:08:43
or rather this red line over here is your stop loss over here so if let's say you enter on
或者說這條紅線是你的停損點,所以假設你在
1:08:48
the next candle open if you enter on this next candle open here let's say it's here your stop-loss
下一根 K 線開盤時進場,如果你在這下一根 K 線開盤這裡進場,假設是在這裡,你的停損
1:08:54
is at this price point this level over here so from here opening price all the way
就設在這個價格點位,這個水準這裡,所以從這裡的開盤價一路
1:08:58
down to this red line is your stop loss okay so in this case all right you can see that
到這條紅線就是你的停損點,好的,所以在這種情況下,好的,你可以看到
1:09:04
uh you wouldn't have gotten stopped out of your trade because you know you had you know enough buffer right as your
你並沒有被停損出場,因為你知道你有足夠的緩衝空間,對吧,作為你的
1:09:09
stop-loss so let me walk you through another example because this concept is important
停損點,所以讓我再帶你走過另一個例子,因為這個概念很重要
1:09:14
so let's have a look how about this one here okay say close this okay let's see over here
所以我們來看看另一個例子如何,好的,關掉這個,好的,我們看這裡
1:09:20
let's say we have a for example let's say you went short right maybe there's there's a valid
假設我們有,舉例來說,假設你做空,對吧,也許有一個有效的
1:09:25
trading setup and you notice this strong bearish price rejection on this candle here you went sure so you again
交易設定,而你注意到這根 K 線上出現強烈的空頭價格拒絕,你做空了,所以你再次
1:09:31
where should your stop-loss be so again the concept is you want to set your stop-loss right one
你的停損點應該設在哪裡?同樣的概念是,你希望將停損點設在價值區域之外一個
1:09:36
atr beyond the area of value so in this case where is the area of value area of value is here this area of
ATR 的位置,所以在這個情況下,價值區域在哪裡?價值區域在這裡,這個阻力區
1:09:43
resistance so within this area of value this is the extreme high point okay so reference
所以在這個價值區域內,這裡是極高點,好的,所以以
1:09:47
that high point so in this case the high point the value is let me find out what that is
這個高點為參考,在這個情況下,高點的數值是,讓我找出是多少
1:09:53
it is 6.515 okay 6.515 so the high point is 6.515
是 6.515,好的,6.515,所以高點是 6.515
1:10:02
and what i'm going to do is to add on one atr why add because we are now in the
而我接下來要做的是加上一個 ATR,為什麼要加?因為我們現在處於
1:10:07
downtrend right our stop loss so it should be above 180 r above this swing high so the
下跌趨勢中,對吧,我們的停損點應該設在 180 R 之上,也就是這個波段高點之上,所以
1:10:11
current atr value is 0.014 so just 0.014 and that will give us let me see
目前的 ATR 數值是 0.014,所以就是 0.014,這樣會讓我們...讓我看看
1:10:21
6.515 plus 0.014 6.529 6.529 that is where your stop loss
6.515 加上 0.014 等於 6.529,6.529,那就是你的停損點
1:10:31
is so if i were to get again right the red color line
所在。所以如果我要再畫一次,對,那條紅色線
1:10:35
and to draw it out okay 6.529 there you go so let's say you enter on
然後把它畫出來,好了,6.529,就在這裡。所以假設你在
1:10:45
the next candle open which is here okay your stop loss let's say you enter on the next candle open is here
下一根 K 線的開盤價進場,就在這裡,好,你的停損點,假設你在下一根 K 線的開盤價進場,就在這裡
1:10:52
your stop-loss will be at this rate line over here so your stop-loss is in other words from here
你的停損點將會在這條趨勢線,就在這裡,所以你的停損點,換句話說,是從這裡
1:10:57
all the way down to here right this is the size of your stop loss make sense okay so pretty simple stuff
一路向下到這裡,對,這就是你停損點的幅度,懂了嗎?好的,所以這相當簡單
1:11:05
right your stop loss is in essence right one atr beyond the area of value so this gives your trade
對,你的停損點本質上是,對,距離價值區塊一個 ATR 的位置。這樣就給你的交易
1:11:10
room to breathe so what this does is that if let's say the market makes a saturday
留有喘息的空間。這樣做的目的是,如果市場出現
1:11:15
a sudden spike up higher right at least right your stop-loss is away right from this highs
突然的急漲,對吧,至少你的停損點是遠離,對吧,這些高點
1:11:19
or from here so you give your trade right more room to breathe and not get you know stopped up from all
或是從這裡算起,所以你給你的交易,對吧,更多的喘息空間,而不會因為所有
1:11:24
this sudden spike up or down of course it's not 100 foolproof you will still get stopped up from time to
這些突然的急漲或急跌而被停損出場。當然,這不是 100% 萬無一失,你還是會偶爾
1:11:29
time but it will you know protect you right hopefully more often than not and that's
被停損出場,但它會,你知道,保護你,對吧,希望是利大於弊,而這就是
1:11:33
the concept right behind to why i set my stop-loss in this manner okay so just remember this
我用這種方式設定停損點背後的,對,概念。好的,所以請記住這一點
1:11:40
one atr beyond the area of value so your trade has breathing room and finally one last pro tip is this
在價值區塊外一個 ATR 的位置,這樣你的交易就有喘息的空間。最後,最後一個專業小技巧是這個
1:11:46
some of you might be wondering hey why do you use one atr what about two atr or three hdr now here's the thing it's
你們有些人可能在想,嘿,為什麼你用一個 ATR?那兩個或三個 ATR 呢?好吧,事情是這樣的,
1:11:51
perfectly fine right you have you can adjust the the multiple of your stop loss according
完全沒問題,對,你可以根據你的需求
1:11:56
to your needs but one thing to bear in mind is that the wider your stop-loss is right is that no
調整你停損點的倍數。但有一件事要記住,那就是你的停損點越寬,對吧,那就代表
1:12:01
your position size will be reduced right so you can accommodate right your risk management
你的部位規模會縮小,對吧,這樣你才能符合你的風險管理
1:12:06
and of course the smaller the size of your stop-loss is right you can afford to put on a larger position size but the
當然,你的停損點幅度越小,對吧,你就能承受更大的部位規模,但是
1:12:10
downside to that is that you know you might get stopped up prematurely so again
這樣做的缺點是,你可能會過早被出場,所以再次強調
1:12:14
you can you know decide what atr multiple suits you best for me personally i just simply go with one atr
你可以決定哪個 ATR 倍數最適合你,就我個人而言,我只用一個 ATR
1:12:20
beyond the area of value so that's pretty much it for stop-loss right now let's move on
超出價值區間,關於停損就差不多是這樣了,現在我們繼續
1:12:24
and talk about your exits right if the market moves in your favor
來談談你的出場點,如果市場走勢對你有利
1:12:30
okay so now what if the market moves in your favor right where do you take profit so when
好,那麼如果市場走勢對你有利,你該在哪裡獲利了結呢?當
1:12:36
it comes to exiting your winning trades you have two options number one you can adopt a swing trading
你要出場獲利了結時,你有兩個選擇:第一,你可以採用波段交易
1:12:42
approach or a trend following approach let me explain these two
策略或趨勢跟隨策略,讓我向你解釋這兩種
1:12:46
methods right to you and you can later on kind of decide which of these two approaches
方法,之後你可以決定這兩種策略中哪一種
1:12:51
suit you best there's no right or wrong here there's no you know swing trading is better than trend
最適合你,這裡沒有絕對的對錯,沒有所謂波段交易比趨勢
1:12:55
falling or stuff like that there isn't right it really depends on you the trader so first let's talk about
跟隨更好之類的,並沒有,這真的取決於你,交易者本身,所以首先我們來談談
1:13:00
swing trading what exactly is swing trading so as a swing trader what you're trying to do is to capture
波段交易,波段交易究竟是什麼?作為一名波段交易者,你試圖做的是捕捉
1:13:06
one just one move in the market just at one swing zoom that's it so to illustrate what is a
市場中的一波,僅僅一波走勢,只抓一個波段,就這樣。為了說明什麼是
1:13:12
swing in the market let's say market is in range between these highs and this lows market goes up
市場波段,假設市場在這些高點和低點之間區間震盪,市場上漲
1:13:17
there's one swing comes down there's another swing goes up that's one swing come down that's another swing so
這是一個波段,下跌是另一個波段,上漲是一個波段,下跌是另一個波段,所以
1:13:23
basically from here to here this is one swing this here here this portion here is another swing here
基本上從這裡到這裡,這是一個波段,這裡、這裡,這一部分是另一個波段,這裡
1:13:29
is another swing and this is another swing make sense i know this looks like a mess but in
是另一個波段,而這又是另一個波段,明白嗎?我知道這看起來很亂,但
1:13:34
in other words right swing trading refers to capturing one move in the markets
換句話說,波段交易指的是捕捉市場中的一波走勢
1:13:39
so another question is how do you capture one swing so to do it right you want to exit your
所以另一個問題是,你如何捕捉一波走勢?要做到這點,你希望在對立的壓力介入前
1:13:44
trade before opposing pressure steps in so let's say if you're a buyer then opposing pressure is seller
出場,所以假設你是買方,那麼對立的壓力就是賣方
1:13:51
if you are a seller then opposing pressure to you is the buyer let me just explain right since uh some
如果你是賣方,那麼對立的壓力就是買方。讓我解釋一下,因為呃,有些
1:13:56
of you might be confused so let's say again market is in a range and you bought near the lows of support let's
你可能會感到困惑,所以我們再說一次,市場處於區間震盪,而你在支撐的低點附近買入,讓
1:14:01
say you bought over here okay now let me ask you if the market moves in your favor
我們假設你在這裡買入。好的,現在讓我問你,如果市場朝著對你有利的方向移動
1:14:06
where do you think sellers might come in right to push the price down lower well if you know that this is a range
你認為賣方可能會在哪裡進場,對吧,來把價格推得更低?嗯,如果你知道這是一個區間
1:14:12
and if you know that this is an area of resistance you will conclude that hmm rainer i think
而且如果你知道這是一個阻力區,你就會得出結論:嗯,Rainer(講者),我認為
1:14:16
you know sellers might be at resistance right trying to short the market at this area
賣方可能會在阻力位,對吧,試圖在這個區域做空市場
1:14:21
and if you think along those lines you're not wrong so this is what i mean by you know exit
如果你沿著這個思路思考,你是對的。所以這就是我所說的,在對立壓力介入之前出場
1:14:25
before opposing pressure steps in if you know that this is an area of resistance you want to
如果你知道這是一個阻力區,你希望
1:14:30
take profit before resistance the key word here is before resistance okay you don't want to
在阻力位之前獲利了結。這裡的關鍵字是「在阻力位之前」。好的,你不希望
1:14:37
set your take profit level here above resistance or here why is that
把你的獲利目標設在阻力位上方或這裡。為什麼呢?
1:14:42
very simple because if you were to set your take profit level here above resistance
非常簡單,因為如果你把獲利目標設在阻力位上方
1:14:46
what it means that is that you will only exit with a profit if the market breaks above resistance
這意味著只有當市場突破阻力位時,你才能帶著利潤出場
1:14:53
if it doesn't right you will watch your trade reverse 180 degree against you and hit your stop loss do
如果沒有突破,對吧,你會看著你的交易逆轉 180 度對你不利,並觸發你的停損點。你
1:14:58
you want that of course not so this is why you want to be smart about this right
想要這樣嗎?當然不。所以這就是為什麼你需要聰明地處理這件事,對吧
1:15:02
don't set your target above resistance because you're making the market difficult right
不要把你的目標設在阻力位上方,因為你是在讓市場很難
1:15:07
to reward you instead set it before resistance before opposing pressure steps in because this is where
獎賞你。相反地,把它設在阻力位之前,在對立壓力介入之前,因為在這裡
1:15:13
you have a higher likelihood right of exiting your swing trade with a profit okay so let me share with you a
你有更高的機率,對吧,能夠帶著利潤結束你的波段交易。好的,所以讓我分享一些
1:15:18
few charting examples so you know what i mean so if you look at this chart over
圖表範例,讓你明白我的意思。所以如果你看這張圖
1:15:22
here let's say for whatever reason right you went long on the you saw this bullish candle and you went along on the
在這裡,假設不管什麼原因,對吧,你看到了這根看漲 K 線,於是你做多,然後你在
1:15:28
next candle open okay and you're trying to just capture one swing in this market this is the oil
下一根 K 線開盤時進場。好的,而你試圖在這個市場中只捕捉一波波段。這是原油
1:15:34
market this is the daily time frame now let me ask you where should you exit this particular swing trade
市場,這是日線圖。現在讓我問你,你應該在這個特定的波段交易中的哪裡出場?
1:15:40
where should you set your target i'll give you three options okay option one is here
你應該把目標設定在哪裡?我給你三個選擇,好的,選擇一是這裡
1:15:48
a b or c all right let's call this a b or c think about this right where do you
A、B 或 C,好的,我們稱之為 A、B 或 C,想一想,對吧?你想在哪裡
1:15:57
want to exit this trick to capture one swing a b or c and the answer is
出場以捕捉這一波趨勢?A、B 或 C?答案是
1:16:02
c why is that remember we want to exit our swinging trade before opposing pressure steps in if you set it at a
C。為什麼?還記得嗎?我們希望在反向壓力介入之前出場。如果你設定在 A
1:16:09
you are making the market you know uh difficult to reward you because the price has to break above this
,你是在讓市場很難獎勵你,因為價格必須突破
1:16:14
swing high over here before you can reach your target making a making you know things difficult
這裡的這個波段高點,你才能達到你的目標,這讓事情變得困難。
1:16:18
if you set it at b it's not as bad as ar but remember this is a swing high this is a potential
如果你設定在 B,雖然沒有 A 那麼糟,但請記住,這是一個波段高點,這是一個潛在的
1:16:25
area where selling pressure could step in there's no guarantee the price will
區域,賣壓可能會在此介入,無法保證價格
1:16:29
re-test this swing high before it reverse down lower okay because the price could come up higher
在反轉向下之前會再次測試這個波段高點。好的,因為價格可能
1:16:35
just approaching the swing high and then start to reverse down lower meaning the opposing pressure or rather the sellers
只是接近波段高點就開始反轉向下,這意味著反向壓力,或者說是賣家
1:16:40
step in earlier right to push the price down lower so if you want to be conservative if you want to be smart
更早就介入了,對吧?以推低價格。所以,如果你想保守一點,如果你想聰明
1:16:44
about this and if you want to capture just one swing in this market c right would be a better option because
地處理這件事,如果你想在這個市場中只捕捉一波趨勢,C 對吧?會是一個更好的選擇,因為
1:16:49
this is where opposing pressure or rather this is the level right before opposing pressure
這裡是反向壓力介入之前的位置,或者說,這是反向壓力
1:16:54
will step in right to push the price down lower okay so to me c right is a much better level
會介入推低價格的水位之前,對吧?所以對我來說,C 對吧?是一個好得多的
1:16:59
right to exit your swing trade this is where this is where you're kind of like
水位,對吧?來出場你的波段交易。這裡是,這裡是你有點像
1:17:04
earlier a little bit right and exiting your trade before opposing pressure at the swing high
比較早一點,對吧?在反向壓力於波段高點
1:17:09
steps in to push the price down lower so if you're exiting your trade somewhere here right
介入推低價格之前出場。所以如果你在這裡某個地方出場,對吧?
1:17:13
you're kind of you know putting yourself in good shoes because this is the swing high this is the area of
你算是把自己放在有利的位置,因為這是波段高點,這是
1:17:18
resistance and this level is before the opposing pressure at this swing high here
阻力區,而這個水位是在這裡這個波段高點的反向壓力介入之前。
1:17:24
another example this is the chart of goal okay so let's say for example this time around market here
另一個例子,這是 GOOG(谷歌)的圖表。好的,所以舉例來說,這次市場在這裡
1:17:30
had a rebound okay so let's say at this low it rebound close the screen let's say you enter on the next candle
有一個反彈,好的,所以我們假設在這個低點反彈並收盤,我們假設你在下一根K線進場
1:17:35
open again where at what point right do you want to exit your trade to capture just one swing
再次開盤,在哪個點位,對,你想在哪裡平倉以捕捉僅僅一個波段
1:17:41
if you ask me it will be somewhere about this level here because you okay first let's first identify where is
如果你問我,大概會在這裡這個水準附近,因為你,好的,首先讓我們先確認在
1:17:47
the swing high and low in this chart so the swing high is at this point price point
這張圖表中的波段高點和低點在哪裡,所以波段高點在這個價格點位
1:17:51
and the key thing here is to exit your trade before the swing high before opposing pressure steps in so this is
這裡的關鍵是在對立壓力介入之前,在波段高點之前平倉,所以這是
1:17:57
ideally right probably somewhere about here is where you want to exit your swing trade so if the market you enter
理想的,對,大概在這裡附近是你想平掉波段交易的地方,所以如果市場你進場
1:18:01
over here this over here is where you are likely to exit this particular
在這裡,這裡大概就是你可能會平掉這個特定
1:18:06
swing trade this over here is before this swing high here make sense
波段交易的位置,這裡是在這個波段高點之前,懂嗎
1:18:13
okay now let's talk about the pros and cons of swing trading so first thing right swing trading the
好的,現在讓我們來談談波段交易的優缺點,所以首先,對,波段交易的
1:18:19
pros is that it has a higher winning rate right because you are consistent in capturing
優點是它有更高的勝率,對,因為你在捕捉
1:18:24
your swing right from one trade to another and you are usually exiting your trade
每個波段時是具有一致性的,而且你通常是在對立壓力介入之前
1:18:27
before opposing pressure steps in so your winning rate should be higher the downside to swing
平掉你的部位,所以你的勝率應該會更高,波段交易的
1:18:32
trading is that you are unable to write trends and that's because you will exit your trade at a predetermined
缺點是你無法順著趨勢操作,那是因為你會在預先設定的
1:18:38
target and if let's say the market you know exits your that target and continues right moving
目標平倉,而如果,假設市場你知道觸及你的目標後,持續朝
1:18:43
in that same direction you will be on the sidelines right unable to reap profits from it because you have already
同一個方向移動,你將會在場邊,對,無法從中獲利,因為你已經
1:18:48
exited the position okay so this brings us to the next type of trading which is trend
平倉了,好的,這就帶我們來到下一種交易類型,也就是趨勢
1:18:54
following and this is for you if you want to write trends in the market so what is
跟隨,如果你想要順著市場趨勢操作,這很適合你,所以什麼是
1:18:58
trend following right it's in essence right trying to write a trend so it's different from swing trading
趨勢跟隨,對,本質上,對,試圖順著趨勢操作,所以這和波段交易不同
1:19:02
where you're just capturing one move no writing a trend right is trying to capture the meat of the train right to
在波段交易中你只是捕捉單一波動,順著趨勢操作,對,是試圖捕捉趨勢的主要波段,對,順著
1:19:08
ride the waves right as he continues to go higher and to do that right you will use a
浪潮操作,對,當它持續走高時,而要做到這點,對,你將會使用一個
1:19:13
trailing stop-loss so there are different types of trailing stop-loss out there the one
移動式止損點(trailing stop-loss)市面上有不同類型的移動式止損點,我將要教你的是
1:19:17
i'm going to teach you is moving average trailing stop-loss so depending on the type of trends that
移動平均線移動式止損點(moving average trailing stop-loss)。根據你想要捕捉的趨勢類型,
1:19:22
you want to capture whether is it short-term medium term or long-term trend right
無論是短期、中期還是長期趨勢,對吧?
1:19:25
you can use a different moving average parameters right to meet your needs so in essence right what you
你可以使用不同的移動平均線參數來滿足你的需求。本質上,你要做的是,
1:19:31
are going to do is that let's say the market is trending higher okay you're going to overlay this trend
假設市場正在上漲,好的,你會用一條移動平均線覆蓋這個趨勢,
1:19:36
with a moving average something like this over here and as long as the price is above the
就像這邊這樣。只要價格維持在這條
1:19:41
moving average here you will continue to hold the tree only if the price you know
移動平均線上方,你就會繼續持有部位。只有當價格回檔,
1:19:46
pulls back and then finally closes let's say it closes the candle closes below the moving average right
並且最終收盤——假設K線收在移動平均線下方,對吧?
1:19:52
then you exit the trade when it closes below this moving average if not you continue
你才會在收盤低於這條移動平均線時出場。如果沒有,你就繼續
1:19:57
holding the trade right and see how much of a trend you can capture and which moving average perimeter to
持有部位,對吧,看看你能捕捉到多少趨勢,而要使用哪個移動平均線參數,
1:20:02
use depends you know on what you want whether you capture a short-term trend medium-term trend or a long-term trend
取決於你想要捕捉的是短期、中期還是長期趨勢。
1:20:08
so if you want to capture a short-term trend right you can exit the trade when the price closes below the 20-period
所以,如果你想捕捉短期趨勢,對吧,你可以在價格收盤低於20期
1:20:13
moving average if you want to ride a medium-term trend you can exit when it closes below the
移動平均線時出場。如果你想駕馭中期趨勢,你可以在收盤低於
1:20:19
50 period moving average and if a long-term trend you can exit when the price closes below the
50期移動平均線時出場。如果是長期趨勢,你可以在價格收盤低於
1:20:24
100 period moving average so there's no best moving average settings here right in case you're
100期移動平均線時出場。這裡沒有最好的移動平均線設定,對吧,以防你
1:20:29
wondering some of you might be thinking okay right which you know moving average is the
在想,有些人可能在想,好吧,那麼到底哪一條移動平均線最適合
1:20:32
best to ride a trend there isn't right unfortunately so there's pros and cons through to you
駕馭趨勢?其實沒有。不幸的是,無論你試圖駕馭短期或長期趨勢,
1:20:37
know trying to write a short-term or long-term trend so for short-term trend right the
都有利弊。對於短期趨勢來說,
1:20:42
the downside is that you might get stopped out of your trade too early right maybe it could be just a
缺點是你可能太早被停損出場,對吧,也許那只是一個
1:20:47
pullback but because it really hits your short-term trailing stop-loss you are out of the trade but the good thing is
回檔,但因為它真的觸及了你的短期移動式止損點,你就出場了。但好處是
1:20:52
that you know for trying to write short-term trend right you don't really have to endure too much
你知道,試圖操作短期趨勢時,你其實不必承受太多痛苦
1:20:56
pain because the depth of the pullback is usually uh quite shallow that you have to endure
因為回檔的深度通常相當淺,你必須承受的幅度不大
1:21:00
and if you endure any further you already stopped out compared to let's say a long-term trend right the
而如果你還得承受更多,那你早就已經被停損出場了。相比之下,長期趨勢則不同
1:21:05
good thing about long-term trend is that it keeps you in the trade longer so even if the pullback can be deeper
長期趨勢的好處在於,它能讓你在部位停留更久,所以即使回檔可能更深
1:21:11
there's a good chance that you can still be able to ride it out and continue writing the trend
你仍有很大的機會能夠撐過去,並繼續順著趨勢操作
1:21:15
the downside right to writing a long-term trend is that it's going to be more painful because
但操作長期趨勢的缺點是,過程會更痛苦,因為
1:21:19
you can see that the amount of open profits that you have to give back right while trying to write the long-term
你可以看到,在試圖操作長期趨勢時,你必須回吐的未平倉利潤
1:21:24
trend is a lot more so when the pullback occurs right you will see open profits get
要多得多。所以當回檔發生時,你會看到未平倉利潤
1:21:28
smaller and smaller and smaller and it can be emotionally like more difficult right
越來越少、越來越少,這在情緒上可能會更難熬
1:21:32
because you watch a huge chunk of your profits you know get returned back so that's kind of like
因為你眼睜睜看著一大塊利潤回吐,所以這就是
1:21:37
the pros and cons to you know short-term trend following and longer-term trend following and again
操作短期趨勢和長期趨勢的優缺點。再次強調
1:21:41
there's no right or wrong you have to find the one that suits you best
沒有絕對的對錯,你必須找到最適合自己的方式
1:21:45
so just to illustrate a quick chat example so let's say this is the chart of a brand crude oil
那麼,讓我們用一個簡單的圖表例子來說明。假設這是一張布蘭特原油的圖表
1:21:50
okay if you let's say for whatever reason maybe you've got long somewhere about here but let me just
好,假設不知為何,也許你在這裡的某個位置做多,但讓我假設
1:21:55
change let's say you've got long for whatever reason right i don't know what the
你因為某種原因做了多。我不知道原因是什麼
1:21:58
reason is that's not important let's say buy somewhere here and market moves in your favor so you
這不重要。假設你在這裡的某個位置買進,市場朝對你有利的方向移動,所以你
1:22:02
can see that if you overlay for 20 period moving average you will be pretty much you know exiting
可以看到,如果你疊加上一條20期移動平均線,你大概會在
1:22:07
your trade probably when this candle breaks and close below this 20 period moving average so you can capture you
這根K線跌破並收在這條20期移動平均線下方時出場,所以你大概能捕捉到
1:22:13
know pretty much at this portion of the move and if you go with let's say a 50 period moving average you
這波走勢的這一部分。而如果你採用50期移動平均線,你
1:22:19
can see that you are in the trade longer because when this candle closed bearishly right it did not close below
可以看到你在部位停留的時間更長,因為當這根K線收黑時,它並沒有收在
1:22:23
the 50 period moving average so you can see right there you're actually in this trade right uh you're able to
50期移動平均線,所以你可以看到就在那裡,你在這筆交易中實際上是,呃,你能夠
1:22:28
withstand more pain in other words right by using a slightly longer-term moving average in this case
承受更多的損失,換句話說,透過使用稍微長期的移動平均線,在這個情況下
1:22:34
you would have you know exit the trade over here on this candle when the price breaks and close
你本來會,你知道,在這裡的這根K線當價格跌破並收在
1:22:37
below this 50 period moving average and finally if you go with a 100 period moving
這條50期移動平均線下方時出場,最後如果你採用100期移動
1:22:43
average in this case you can see that you can endure even more pain right and you will
平均線,在這個情況下,你可以看到你能承受更多的損失,而且你將
1:22:47
be pretty much still in this trade right you wouldn't have gotten stopped on this pool back here you have to you
幾乎仍然在這筆交易中,你不會在這次的拉回中被停損出場,你必須
1:22:52
know kind of withstand that pain and then eventually watch the market bounce back in your favor
承受那種損失,然後最終看著市場反彈回到對你有利的方向
1:22:57
so again i'm not here to say no whether the 20 period moving average is best the 50 or the 100.
所以再次強調,我並不是在這裡說20期移動平均線最好,50期或100期最好。
1:23:01
this is something that you have to decide and be comfortable with for yourself right and to decide what type
這是你自己必須決定並感到自在的事情,並決定你想要捕捉
1:23:06
of trend you want to capture whether is it long term short term or
哪一種趨勢,無論是長期、短期還是
1:23:10
medium term and that's how you know trend following works and you have to be comfortable right
中期,這就是你知道趨勢跟隨的運作方式,而且你必須感到自在
1:23:14
with giving back your open profits because for example if you saw earlier the 50 period moving average
於回吐你的浮動獲利,因為舉例來說,如果你之前看到50期移動平均線
1:23:19
one right you are not gonna exit you're not gonna be like a swing trader where you manage to exit right let's say
你就不會出場,你不會像一個波段交易者那樣設法在,比方說
1:23:24
before this swing high over here okay you're only exiting your trade
這個波段高點之前出場,好,你只會在
1:23:29
after the market has pulled back and moved against you so you can imagine at one point in time right your
市場已經拉回並對你不利之後才出場,所以你可以想像在某個時間點,你的
1:23:34
open profits right is at a maximum right around this high over here where the market is really bullish in your favor
浮動獲利在這個高點附近達到最大值,當時市場對你非常有利
1:23:39
and you saw your open profit slowly dwindle and then you know uh decrease right as the
然後你看到你的浮動獲利慢慢減少,然後你知道,呃,隨著
1:23:44
pullback occurs so this is something that as a trend follower you have to be prepared as well that's
拉回的發生而減少,所以這件事是作為一個趨勢跟隨者你也必須準備好的,這
1:23:48
the only way right you will write the trend is by to to be able to give back open profits
是唯一的方法,你才能駕馭趨勢,那就是能夠回吐浮動獲利
1:23:53
that is kind of like the cost of being a trend follower so with that said right let's talk about the
這就像是成為一個趨勢跟隨者的成本,所以說到這裡,我們來談談
1:24:00
pros and cons of trend folding the pros is that you can write massive trends okay and you know it can be a huge
趨勢追蹤的優缺點,優點在於你可以掌握大規模的趨勢,這對你來說可能帶來巨大的
1:24:05
profit potential for you the downside to it is low winning rate because you're always right trying to
獲利潛力,但缺點是勝率較低,因為你總是試圖
1:24:10
attempt to ride the trend using a trailing stop loss right you will only exit the trade
利用移動式停損來搭上趨勢的順風車,你只會在市場
1:24:14
after the market has moved against you so this usually results in a lower winning rate compared to a swing
反向波動後才出場,這通常會導致勝率比波段
1:24:20
trader so really it depends on the type of person you are if you hate being wrong right then swing
交易者來得低,所以這真的取決於你是哪種類型的人,如果你不喜歡犯錯,那麼波段
1:24:26
trading is probably for you but on the other hand if you're someone that really wants to ride trends
交易可能適合你;但另一方面,如果你真的很想搭上趨勢
1:24:30
right you can't stand missing out on trends then trend following is probably for you but you have to embrace right
的順風車,你無法忍受錯過趨勢,那麼趨勢追蹤可能適合你,但你必須接受
1:24:36
the uh so-called downside that comes along with it namely a lower winning rate okay i get it now
隨之而來的所謂缺點,也就是較低的勝率。好的,我現在明白了。
1:24:43
you are probably feeling ah overwhelmed right what is this right now you know market structure
你可能覺得有點不知所措,現在這到底是什麼?你知道市場結構、
1:24:47
aerial value avengers absent for example what's going on so i get it right you are overwhelmed
價值區間、支撐壓力等等,例如發生了什麼事?所以我懂了,你不知所措,
1:24:53
you might even be you know uh a bit confused but don't worry because in the next section right i will
你甚至可能有點困惑,但別擔心,因為在下一個章節,我會
1:24:58
share with you how we can actually utilize all these different concepts strategies and
和你分享我們實際上如何運用所有這些你剛學到的不同概念、策略和
1:25:01
techniques that you have just learned right to trade the markets in fact right my
技巧來交易市場。事實上,我
1:25:05
own trading strategy right is based on all these concepts that i've just shared with you
自己的交易策略就是基於我剛剛和你分享的所有這些概念。
1:25:08
i will share with you you know how to actually uh use it right to profit in bull and bear market so all
我會和你分享如何實際運用它在牛市和熊市中獲利,所有
1:25:14
this and more in the next section breathe in breathe out let's go
這些以及更多內容都在下一個章節,深呼吸,我們開始吧。
1:25:20
okay so now before i share with you my own trading strategy and look at some real world trading examples i think it's
好的,那麼現在在我分享我自己的交易策略並檢視一些真實世界的交易範例之前,我認為
1:25:26
important right to take a step back and actually do a recap to all the things that you've
重要的是先退一步,實際複習一下到目前為止你所
1:25:31
learned up to this point so let's get started so number one right the first thing
學到的所有內容。那麼我們開始吧。第一點,這門技術分析培訓課程首先要和你分享的是
1:25:34
about this technical analysis training is to share with you right market structure and this is important because
市場結構,這很重要,因為
1:25:39
if you can define the market structure then you know what to do if the market is in an uptrend you know you should be
如果你能定義市場結構,你就知道該怎麼做。如果市場處於上升趨勢,你就知道你應該
1:25:44
looking for buying opportunities not selling because you don't want to be trading against the
尋找買入機會而不是賣出,因為你不想逆著
1:25:48
trend you want to be trading along the path of this resistance to be trading in the direction of the
趨勢交易。你希望順著這條阻力路徑交易,順著趨勢的方向交易,
1:25:53
trend so that's what market structure does it helps you define what's the trend so
這就是市場結構的作用。它幫助你定義趨勢是什麼,這樣
1:25:57
you can trade in the direction of it so if the market is in a downtrend then of course you look for selling
你就可以順著趨勢交易。所以如果市場處於下降趨勢,那麼你當然要尋找賣出
1:26:02
opportunities so next thing we covered is area of value and this is important because
的機會。接下來我們講到的是價值區域,這很重要,因為
1:26:07
just because the market is in an uptrend doesn't mean you want to blindly hit the buy button because the market could be
市場處於上升趨勢並不意味著你就要盲目地按下買入鍵,因為市場可能已經
1:26:11
overbought it could be getting ready to make a pullback or a complete reversal so this
超買,可能準備要拉回或完全反轉。所以
1:26:15
is why we want to be trading from an area of value this could be things like support
這就是為什麼我們希望從價值區域進行交易。這可以是像支撐
1:26:19
and resistance or moving average so for example if the market is in an uptrend we want to be looking to trade
和阻力,或是移動平均線這樣的东西。舉例來說,如果市場處於上升趨勢,我們希望考慮在
1:26:26
at support around support area then this brings us to the third section right entry trigger
支撐位附近,大約在支撐區域交易。然後這就帶我們到第三個部分,也就是進場觸發點。
1:26:31
so once the market is in an uptrend it's at an area of value then we look for a specific price pattern called an entry
所以一旦市場處於上升趨勢,並且在價值區域,我們就尋找一個特定的價格形態,稱為進場
1:26:37
trigger to tell us when exactly to enter a trade the entry trigger gives us
觸發點,來告訴我們究竟該在什麼時候進場交易。進場觸發點給我們
1:26:41
some uh trigger right to tell us that hey you know at this point the buyers they are in
一些觸發信號,告訴我們說嘿,你知道嗎,在這個時間點,買方他們正
1:26:46
control they are starting to you know turn up the heat right it's a good time right to now enter our trade and to to
掌控局面,他們開始加大力道了,對吧?這是一個好時機,對吧,現在就該進場交易,並且
1:26:53
time our entry so once we have the entry trigger covered we then look to cover our exits right
把握我們的進場時機。所以一旦我們掌握了進場觸發點,我們接著就要考慮我們的出場點,對吧。
1:26:59
what if the market moves against us where do we cut our laws what if the market moves in our favor
如果市場走勢對我們不利,我們在哪裡停損?如果市場走勢對我們有利,
1:27:03
where do we take profits and that could be you know depending on whether you want to be a swing trader
我們在哪裡獲利了結?而這可能取決於你想成為一個波段交易者
1:27:07
or trend follower so we covered all these different techniques so in essence right what you're trying to do
還是趨勢跟隨者。所以我們涵蓋了所有這些不同的技巧。因此,本質上,對吧,你試圖要做的
1:27:12
as a technical trader is uh there are many ways to do this but this approach that i'm sharing with you is to
作為一個技術交易者是,嗯,有很多方法可以做到這一點,但我現在分享給你的這個方法是,
1:27:18
trade with the trend so again number one let's say we have an uptrend series of higher highs and higher lows
順勢交易,所以再次,第一點,假設我們處於上升趨勢,一系列的更高的高點和更高的低點
1:27:23
next thing we look for is for the market to come into an area of value so in this case we let's
接下來我們尋找的是市場進入價值區,所以在這種情況下,我們讓
1:27:27
say the market come into this previous resistance which becomes support the third thing we
市場進入這個先前的阻力位,它變成了支撐位,第三件事我們
1:27:31
look for is a valid entry trigger so let's say we have something like a hammer
尋找的是一個有效的入場觸發點,所以假設我們有類似錘子線的形態
1:27:35
right to tell us that the buyers are in control and we can look to enter on the next
對,告訴我們買方正在掌控局面,我們可以考慮在下一根
1:27:38
candle open so once we have it dead right we want to cover our downside and to know where to exit the trade you
K線開盤時進場,所以一旦我們進場了,我們想要保護我們的下行風險,並知道在哪裡出場
1:27:44
know if the market moves in our favor so that's where we set up stop loss which is beyond the price structure
如果市場朝著對我們有利的方向移動,所以這就是我們設置止損的地方,它設置在價格結構之外
1:27:49
somewhere here and for targets could be just before this swing high over here so at this point you can see
大概在這裡的某個位置,而目標位可以是就在這個高點之前,所以在這一點上你可以看到
1:27:54
that you know we have defined the market condition that we are trading we know when to enter we know when to
我們已經定義了我們正在交易的市場狀況,我們知道何時入場,我們知道何時
1:27:59
exit if we are wrong and we know where to exit if we are right so if you think about this this entire
如果我們錯了要出場,如果我們對了也知道在哪裡出場,所以如果你想想,這整個
1:28:04
training on technical analysis is sharing with you this trading strategy called
關於技術分析的教學,就是在和你分享這個被稱為
1:28:09
it's like a formula i call it m a e e the may formula and this trading strategy is not cast in stone it is
的交易策略,它就像一個公式,我稱之為M A E E,也就是May公式,而這個交易策略並非一成不變,它是
1:28:16
robust because you don't have to just trade up trend you can trade downtrend you don't just
穩健的,因為你不僅僅只能交易上升趨勢,你也可以交易下降趨勢,你不一定要
1:28:20
have to use support resistance as your area of value you can use things like moving average
使用支撐和阻力作為你的價值區,你也可以使用像是移動平均線
1:28:24
you don't have to use candlestick patterns right for entry trigger i shared with you the moving average break
你不一定要使用K線形態作為入場觸發點,我也和你分享了移動平均線突破
1:28:28
that you can use as well you don't have to be a swing trader if you don't want to you can
你也可以使用,你也不一定要做波段交易者,如果你不想的話,你也可以
1:28:31
also be a trend follower you know to to write massive trends so you can see that this
做趨勢跟隨者,去駕馭大趨勢,所以你可以看到這個
1:28:35
trading strategy it's robust in the sense that you know you can tweak it right to your
交易策略是穩健的,在某種意義上,你可以根據你的
1:28:40
needs and of course there are more techniques and concepts that you can use as a trader
需求來調整它,當然,作為一個交易者,還有更多你可以使用的技巧和概念
1:28:44
just that i share with you over here are the ones that i personally use right of course if you want to use
只是我剛才在這裡和你分享的是我个人使用的,當然,如果你想使用
1:28:49
different methods to define your entry trigger like you know chart patterns and whatnot it's entirely up to you so
定義進場觸發點的不同方法,像是你知道的圖表形態等等,這完全取決於你
1:28:54
right now what i'm going to do is to share with you some real world trading examples and see
所以現在,我打算與你分享一些真實世界的交易範例,並看看
1:28:58
how this may formula to see how this trading strategy right can help you profit in bull
這個公式如何運作,看看這個交易策略如何幫助你在牛市
1:29:03
and bear markets so let's get started so first one here is uh the chart of
和熊市中獲利,那麼我們開始吧。首先是這張
1:29:12
canadian against the japanese yen this is the daily timeframe so remember the may formula so first thing we are
加幣對日圓的圖表,這是日線圖,所以記住 May 公式。首先我們要
1:29:17
looking for number one is m what is the market structure uptrend downtrend or rage so i'm sure you can
尋找的第一點是 M,市場結構是什麼?是上升趨勢、下降趨勢還是區間震盪?我相信你會
1:29:24
agree with me that this market is in an uptrend right a series of higher highs and higher lows so uptrend
同意我的看法,這個市場處於上升趨勢中,對吧?是一連串的更高的高點和更高的低點,所以是上升趨勢
1:29:29
so once you know that the trend is up do you want to be buying or selling i'm sure you can agree that you want to
一旦你知道趨勢是向上的,你想要買進還是賣出?我相信你會同意你想要
1:29:34
be a buyer so where do you want to trade from where do you want to buy from an area of value and in this case
做買方。那麼你想從哪裡交易?你想從哪裡買?從一個價值區,而在這個案例中
1:29:40
the price is at this area of value right at this support so let's call it the area of value is that
價格就在這個價值區,也就是在這個支撐位。所以我們稱之為價值區是那個
1:29:46
support entry trigger do we have a valid entry trigger that tells us
支撐位。進場觸發點呢?我們是否有一個有效的進場觸發點,告訴我們
1:29:51
the buyers are temporarily in control and the market could hit higher and in this case we have a bullish
買方暫時掌控局面,市場可能繼續走高?在這個案例中,我們在這根 K 線上有一個看漲
1:29:56
engulfing pattern on this candle here so i'll call this uh yes call it be bullish engulfing pattern
吞沒形態,所以我稱之為——是的,稱之為看漲吞沒形態
1:30:02
what about exits right do you know where to exit if you are wrong so if we are wrong right i want to
那出場呢?對吧,如果你錯了,你知道在哪裡出場嗎?所以如果我們錯了,對吧,我想
1:30:09
set my stop loss 1atr below this low which is somewhere about here as for target i can set it right
將我的停損點設在這波低點下方 1 ATR,大約在這裡附近。至於目標,我可以將其設在
1:30:14
just before this swing high which is possibly around the 88 price point so you can see at this point
這波高點之前,大約在 88 的價位附近。所以你可以看到在這一點上
1:30:20
we have covered the market condition that we are trading the aerial value we know where to enter
我們已經涵蓋了我們正在交易的市場狀況、價值區、我們知道從哪裡
1:30:24
from we know when exactly to enter our trade and when exactly to exit right if the market moves in our favor
進場、我們知道確切的進場時機,以及確切的出場時機,對吧?如果市場走勢對我們有利
1:30:29
or against us so i'm going to go one step further and share with you know where exactly to set your stop loss and
或不利。所以我打算更進一步,與你分享確切要將停損和
1:30:34
target so just to do a quick recap when we set stop loss right for me personally it's
目標設在哪裡。那麼,快速回顧一下,當我們設置停損時,對我個人而言,它是
1:30:39
always you know one atr below the uh area of value so this is the extreme low in this area of value i find out what is
總是,你知道的,在價值區下方有一個 ATR,所以這是價值區的極端低點,我找出這個價值是多少,然後減去 180,R 代表平均真實波動幅度(Average True Range)
1:30:45
this value and minus 180r atr stands for average true range
所以你可以看到這邊,目前的 ATR 數值大約是 0.7,約 70 個點,而這根 K 線的低點,根據我上次查看的數據,大約是 85.42,所以我打算取這邊的低點,好的,85
1:30:49
so you can see over here this atr value currently is about 0.7 about 70 pips and this low of this candle right from
0.42,然後我減去 70 個點,這給了我,好的,可靠的計算器在這,85.42 減去 0.7
1:30:56
what i last checked this is about 85.42 so i'm going to take the this low over here okay 85
這給了我 84.72,這就是我這筆交易的停損位,假設市場在下一根 K 線開盤
1:31:06
0.42 and i minus 70 pips that gives me okay trusty calculator is here 85.42 minus 0.7
開盤,好的,在這邊,我會讓我和你分享一下我在哪裡設定了我的
1:31:16
that gives me 84.72 that is my stop-loss level on this trade so let's say the market you know open on the next candle
進場、停損和出場點,好的,我們把這叫做進場,也就是在那裡,它們在下一根 K 線開高,我會把這個改成
1:31:23
open okay over here i will let me just share with you where our you know set my
比如說綠色,好的,所以那是我的進場點,那我的停損呢?我們剛剛
1:31:28
entry stops and exits okay so let's call this entry which is there they open up the next candle i'll change this
計算出來了,你的停損會在 84 84.72,讓我們把它設在那裡,好的,讓我把它改成 84.72
1:31:35
to let's say green okay so that's my entry point now what about my stop loss we just
那是我的停損,好的,假設我們想採用波段交易策略,我們想在
1:31:40
calculated it your stop loss will be at 84 84.72 let's put it to rate okay let me just change this to 84.72
這個市場中只捕捉一波走勢就出場,所以針對這一次,我們可以在最近的波段高點之前出場
1:31:49
that is my stop loss okay and let's say we want to go with a swing trading approach we want to exit right
我會把它設在,比如說 88 價位附近,讓我們把它設為藍色,好的,這樣你就有了
1:31:56
and capture just one move in this market so for this one here we can exit just before this recent swing high
它,好的,從這個策略中,你知道確切的進場點、停損點以及
1:32:01
i'll put it let's say around the 88 price point let's set this to blue okay and there you have
獲利了結點,如果市場朝著對你有利的方向移動,而且你知道你正順著趨勢
1:32:07
it right so from this strategy right you know exactly where to enter where is your stop-loss and where
在價值區進行交易,我希望這聽起來合理,現在讓我們繼續看
1:32:14
to take profit if the market moves in your favor and you know you're trading in the direction of the
另一個例子,好的,現在讓我們來看第二個例子,看看這個
1:32:18
trend from an area of value i hope this makes sense now let's move on to the
交易策略如何運用我剛剛分享給你的技巧來進行調整,所以再一次,再次
1:32:24
another example okay now let's have a look at example two right and see how this
應用 MAY 公式,市場結構,這邊 again,它處於上升趨勢
1:32:31
trading strategy right can be tweaked right using the techniques that i've just shared with you so again once
價值區,你可以看到現在價格已經回測了先前的支撐,抱歉,先前的
1:32:36
again applying the may formula right market structure this one here again it's in an uptrend
再次應用MAY公式,市場結構,這裡這個再次處於上升趨勢
1:32:42
area of value you can see that this right now the price has re-test previous support i'm sorry previous
價值區,你可以看到現在價格已經回測了先前的支撐,抱歉,先前的
1:32:48
resistance resistance resistance resistance which could become support okay so we have this over here
阻力 阻力 阻力 阻力 可能轉化為支撐 好的 我們在這裡有這個
1:32:54
and an entry trigger okay do we have a valid entry trigger to go along
和一個入場觸發點 好的 我們是否有有效的入場觸發點來配合
1:32:58
so let me share with you instead of let's say using bullish reversal candlestick patterns right
所以讓我與您分享 與其說使用看漲反轉K線形態 對吧
1:33:02
we can also use the moving average break technique that i've shared with you so let me just overlay with the five
我們也可以使用我與您分享過的均線突破技巧 讓我用五期
1:33:07
period moving average as you can see over here and notice that this candle has break
移動平均線來疊加 如您在這裡所見 注意到這根K線已經突破
1:33:12
and close above the five period moving average this candle here has break and close above the five
並收盤在五期移動平均線之上 這根K線在這裡也突破並收盤在五期
1:33:17
period moving average so we have a valid entry trigger to go long what about exits again we can
移動平均線之上 所以我們有一個有效的入場觸發點來做多 那出場呢 再次我們可以
1:33:22
set our stop loss one atr below this low and target just before this
將我們的止損設置在這個低點下方一個ATR 而目標則設在這個
1:33:27
swing high over here so let me again share with you how to set your stop loss and target so you can see how where
擺動高點之前 所以讓我再次與您分享如何設置您的止損和目標 這樣您可以看到您的入場
1:33:33
exactly is your entry stops and target so let's say we enter the next candle open
止損和目標的確切位置 所以假設我們在下一根K線開盤時入場
1:33:38
it will be over here okay this candle open let's change this to green
它會在這裡 好的 這根K線開盤 讓我們把它改成綠色
1:33:46
let's say our stop losses are 180 below this low so find out what is the
假設我們的止損是在這個低點下方180 所以找出在這個點的
1:33:51
atr value at this point it's about 53 okay let's looking let's get let's say on this candle here the atr value is
ATR值是多少 大約是53 好的 讓我們看看 假設在這根K線這裡 ATR值是
1:33:59
about 53.5 find out what is this low the low price over here it's one one
大約53.5 找出這個低點是多少 這裡的低點價格是1110
1:34:04
one oh so quite simple you just take one this extreme low over here is one one one
噢 相當簡單 你只需要取1 這裡的極端低點是1110
1:34:10
oh minus 53.5 oh sorry minus 53.5
噢 減去53.5 噢 對不起 減去53.5
1:34:18
okay one one one zero minus 53.5 and that will give you one zero five six point five one zero
好的 1110 減去53.5 這將給你1056.5 1056
1:34:28
five six point so what you're going to do is to set your stop loss at 1.056.5
點 所以您要做的是將您的止損設置在1.056.5
1:34:37
and let me just share with you over here say stop-loss is rate and the level that we are used is at
讓我在這裡與您分享 假設止損是價格 我們使用的水平是
1:34:44
1056.5 there you have it our stop-loss what about target so again let's say we are going to go with the swing trading
1056.5 您就在那裡 我們的止損 那目標呢 再次假設我們將進行擺動交易
1:34:50
approach we want to capture one move and for a swing trader you usually want to exit your trade before opposing
我們想要捕捉一波走勢,對於波段交易者來說,你通常希望在反向壓力出現之前出場
1:34:55
pressure comes in so where might opposing pressure come in well you can see that there is this
那麼反向壓力可能在哪裡出現呢?你可以看到這裡有一個
1:35:00
swing high over here so it would be prudent conv conservative right to exit before this
波段高點,所以謹慎保守的做法是在這個
1:35:05
high over here so i would say you know a good level will be somewhere about here one two nine three one two nine
高點之前出場,所以我會說一個好的水準大約在這裡 1293 1295
1:35:11
five okay let's change this to blue okay so let's let's say uh one two nine one two nine four okay and there you
好,讓我們把它改成藍色,所以讓我們說 1294,好了,就這樣
1:35:21
have it right so in the game in this example you know where exactly to enter your trade so let's let's do a
好,讓我們把它改成藍色,所以讓我們說 1294,好了,就這樣
1:35:26
quick recap market structure is up we are trading from this area of value
市場結構是上升的,我們從這個價值區域交易
1:35:31
where previous resistance becomes support we have a moving average break as our entry trigger so we enter here
之前的阻力變成支撐的地方,我們有一個移動平均線突破作為我們的進場觸發點,所以我們在這裡進場
1:35:37
on the next candle open which is on this candle here we enter here our stop loss is one atr
在下一根K線開盤,也就是這根K線,我們在這裡進場,我們的停損是1 ATR
1:35:44
below these lows which is here and our target right is just before this most recent swing high which is this
在這些低點下方,也就是這裡,而我們的目標就在這個最近的波段高點之前,也就是這條
1:35:51
blue line over here and once again right i'm using the same strategy that i've shared with you the
藍線這裡,再次強調,我使用的是與你分享的相同策略
1:35:56
main formula the only difference is right we have changed our technique right for
主要公式,唯一的區別是我們改變了我們的技巧
1:36:00
the entry trigger we use the moving average break to enter our trade so now let's move on
對於進場觸發點,我們使用移動平均線突破來進場,所以現在讓我們繼續
1:36:05
and look at another example okay so example three right this time round let's look at
看看另一個例子,好的,所以第三個例子,這次我們來看
1:36:11
a downtrend shall we so you can see that you can make money in bull markets and even bear market so in this case this
一個下降趨勢,好嗎?所以你可以看到你可以在牛市甚至熊市中賺錢,所以在這種情況下
1:36:16
time around you can see this market dollar against the chinese un this one is on the eight hour time frame
這次你可以看到這個市場美元兌人民幣,這個是在8小時時間框架
1:36:21
let's apply the may formula and you know see how we can trade this market so again market structure you can see
讓我們應用MAY公式,看看我們如何交易這個市場,所以再次,市場結構你可以看到
1:36:27
this time around it's in the downtrend okay so market structure is down
這次它處於下降趨勢,好的,所以市場結構是下降的
1:36:32
area of value okay so this one is uh interesting stuff because if you look at this area of value you will realize that
價值區域,好的,這個很有趣,因為如果你看這個價值區域,你會發現
1:36:38
hey the market has re-test previous resist support support support which became
嘿,市場已經重新測試了之前的阻力支撐支撐,它變成了
1:36:44
resistance resistance and possibly at this area of resistance again so area of value
阻力位,以及可能再次觸及此阻力區域,因此這是一個價值區域
1:36:48
and resistance and another thing is if you overlay with the 50 period moving average
與阻力位,另一件事是,如果你叠加 50 期移動平均線
1:36:53
you would realize that this market also seems to be respecting the 50 period moving average right it tested a
你會發現市場似乎也在跟隨 50 期移動平均線,對吧?它測試了
1:36:59
number of times you know somewhere here although it exited by quite a little bit right but i was still considering this
好幾次,你知道就在這附近,雖然稍微突破了一點,對吧?但我當時仍將此
1:37:04
you know the moving average as an area and it had a bounce right a number of times
移動平均線視為一個區域,而且它出現了反彈,對吧?好幾次
1:37:09
here here here here and now we're back here again so you can see that
這裡、這裡、這裡、這裡,而現在我們又回到了這裡,所以你可以看到
1:37:14
the 50 period moving average is also acting as a confluence right at the area of value so your area of value is kind
50 期移動平均線也在價值區域發揮作用,形成匯合點,所以你的價值區域現在
1:37:19
of stacked right now you have the resistance and 50 period moving average so that
可以說是重叠的,你現在有阻力位和 50 期移動平均線,這
1:37:23
makes the area even more powerful then what about entry trigger so if you look at this entry trigger we have
讓該區域變得更加強勢。那麼入場觸發點呢?如果你看這個入場觸發點,我們有
1:37:29
something a bearish price rejection it's not a shooting star it's not a bearish
一個看跌的價格拒絕(Price Rejection),它不是射擊之星(Shooting Star),也不是看跌的
1:37:34
engulfing pattern the exact term is called a dragonfly doji but again the name is
吞噬形態(Engulfing Pattern),正確的術語叫做蜻蜓十字(Dragonfly Doji),但名字 again
1:37:38
not important what's important is that you can see right that the sellers are in
並不重要,重要的是你可以看到,對吧,賣方正處於
1:37:41
control as you saw the price right being rejected higher at one point in time right the
控制狀態,正如你所見,價格在某個時間點被拒絕拉高,對吧,
1:37:47
buyers were in control and the price was trading near these highs and then the sellers took control and
買方當時處於控制狀態,價格交易在這些高點附近,然後賣方接管並
1:37:52
pushed the price down lower and back to the opening price and closing right near the lows of the day so this to me is a
將價格推低,回到開盤價並收在接近當日低點的位置,所以對我來說,這是一個
1:37:57
bearish price rejection okay if you are not sure about it you can you know wait a couple
看跌的價格拒絕。好吧,如果你不確定,你可以,你知道的,等待幾天
1:38:02
of days and see and watch the price action and you will realize that what happened
並觀察價格走勢,你就會意識到接下來發生了什麼事
1:38:06
next all right was that this market is bullish and then followed by a bearish engulfing pattern
對吧?那就是這個市場原本是看漲的,然後隨後出現了一個看跌吞噬形態
1:38:12
over here so if this one you know made you undecisive right this one should have sealed the deal because
在這裡。所以如果這個形態讓你猶豫不決,對吧?這個形態應該足以讓你下定決心,因為
1:38:16
this tells you that the buyers the sellers are in control it's a bearish engulfing pattern the
這告訴你買方,賣方正處於控制狀態,這是一個看跌吞噬形態,這
1:38:20
body of this candle has engulfed the body of the previous day candle sellers closing near the lows of the day
這根K線的實體已經吞噬了前一日K線的實體,收盤接近當日低點
1:38:26
okay so this right would uh serve as an entry trigger for you to go short
好的,所以這會是你做空的入場觸發點
1:38:31
on the next day open so let's say you go short on the next day open which is uh let's say here okay shot
在第二天開盤時做空,假設你在第二天開盤時做空,也就是在這裡
1:38:37
here at the opening price let me just change this to uh green again to be consistent right
在開盤價這裡,讓我把它改回綠色以保持一致性
1:38:42
green for our entry as for stop loss right i am going to be quick about this i'm not going to go
綠色代表我們的入場,至於停損點,我會快速說明
1:38:47
through the entire atr calculation because you should be a pro by now so i would say your stop-loss right
我不會詳細計算整個ATR,因為你現在應該已經是專業人士了,所以我會說你的停損點
1:38:52
would possibly be 1atr above this high somewhere about here is your stop loss
可能設在這個高點上方1ATR的位置,大約在這裡是你的停損點
1:38:58
okay let's call it s and your target can be just before the swing low so let's say
好的,我們稱之為S,而你的目標可以設在波段低點之前,假設
1:39:03
this swing low you're referencing this could be your target okay so let's call it t
這個波段低點作為參考,可以是你的目標,好的,我們稱之為T
1:39:08
the green over here this level here is your entry let's call it e okay so if your entry price you know
這裡的綠色,這個水準是你的入場點,我們稱之為E,好的,所以如果你的入場價位你知道
1:39:14
where to set your stop loss and this is your target so now let's move on to another example
在哪裡設置停損點,而這是你的目標,那麼現在我們來看另一個例子
1:39:21
okay so for this one here is the chart of aussie against the swiss franc this is the eight hour time frame so let me
好的,這裡是澳元兌瑞士法郎的圖表,這是8小時時間框架,所以讓我
1:39:27
know again walk you through the trading strategy market structure you can see that this market structure
再次帶你走一遍交易策略的市場結構,你可以看到這個市場結構
1:39:32
is in an upfront so market structure uptrend
處於上升趨勢中,所以是上升趨勢的市場結構
1:39:36
what about area of value so once again right this is at area of support and on top of it if
那麼價值區呢?再次,這是支撐區,如果在其上方
1:39:42
you overlay with the 50 period moving average you can see that it tested once on the 50ma
加上50週期移動平均線,你可以看到它測試了一次在50MA
1:39:48
twice and then a third time over here and now we're back here again so you can see that this again is a powerful area
兩次,然後第三次在這裡,現在又回到這裡,所以你可以看到這又是一個強大的區域
1:39:55
it has the confluence of support and the 50 period moving average which is respected by this market
它有支撐和50週期移動平均線的匯聚,這被市場所尊重
1:40:00
and on this time frame what about entry trigger we can see a bullish engulfing pattern over
在這個時間框架下,入場觸發點呢?我們可以看到這裡有一個
1:40:06
here and if you want to go with a candlestick pattern as your entry trigger
看漲吞沒形態,如果你想用K線形態作為入場觸發點
1:40:09
you can use the moving average break in this case the five period moving average you can see the price also break and
在這種情況下,你可以使用移動平均線突破,也就是五期移動平均線,你可以看到價格也突破並收在五期移動平均線上方,所以這是另一個有效的進場觸發點
1:40:16
close above the five period moving average so that's another valid entry trigger
取決於你想使用哪一種,無論你選擇移動平均線突破還是看漲的K線反轉型態,兩者都能給你做多的訊號。至於停損點,再次強調,很簡單,我們會將停損設在這個低點下方一個ATR的位置
1:40:19
depending which one you want to use whether you go with a moving average break or a bullish
所以假設我們在下一根K線的開盤價進場,位置在這裡,停損設在這個低點下方一個ATR,大概在這裡附近
1:40:24
reversal candlestick pattern both right will give you the signal to go low so stop loss again simple stuff right we
至於目標點,則在這個阻力區之前,可能在這裡附近。好的,所以我們再次有了進場點、停損點以及目標點。在這個案例中,這筆交易原本
1:40:31
will set our stop loss one atr below this low so let's say we enter a next candle open
對我們有利,然後崩跌並觸發了我們的停損。你可以看到這一部分,它先是朝對我們有利的方向移動,然後崩跌並觸發了我們的停損
1:40:36
which is here stop loss one atr below this low probably somewhere here
這背後要傳達的訊息是告訴你,即使所有條件都看似完美,一筆交易最終仍有可能以虧損收場。所以你必須為此做好準備
1:40:40
as for target before this area of resistance possibly somewhere about here okay so again we have our entry we have
你必須實踐健全的風險管理,不要一次投入全部資金,或者說,拿你帳戶的50%甚至100%去冒險做一筆交易
1:40:48
our stop loss and with our we have our target and in this case right this trade pretty much
因為這種事情確實會發生,所以要有所準備。現在,我們繼續看下一個例子
1:40:54
when in our favor and then collapse and hit our stop-loss so you can see this part here it went in our favor and
好的,另一個例子,這是銅的交易。我想說的是五月的公式,但你現在可能已經聽膩了,對吧?可能連我都覺得煩了,所以,好吧,五月的公式
1:41:00
then collapse and hit our stop-loss and the message behind this is to share with you that you know when you trade
再次,我們來看一下,市場結構,這很明顯,處於上升趨勢,我們都看得出來。價值區,在這個案例中
1:41:05
all the stars can align and that kid that trade can still end up being a loser so you have to be prepared for
你可以看到價格稍微進入這個波段低點,也就是支撐位,這沒問題。除此之外,你還有50期移動平均線,就像我現在要展示給你看的
1:41:10
this you have to practice sound risk management don't go all in and you know
所以你可以看到...
1:41:14
risk 50 of your account 100 of your account on one trade because
風險,將你帳戶的50%、100%投入到一筆交易中,因為
1:41:17
these things can and do happen so be prepared for it now moving on next example
這些事情可能會發生,也確實會發生,所以要為此做好準備,現在繼續看下一個例子
1:41:25
okay so another example this one here is the trade of copper so i want to say the may
好的,再來看另一個例子,這是銅的交易,所以我想說的是五月
1:41:32
formula but you probably get sick and tired of it right now maybe me all right irritating me so so yeah the
公式,但你現在可能已經聽膩了,也許我也是,好吧,讓我有點煩,所以,嗯,那麼五月
1:41:37
may formula and again let's have a look at this right market structure no-brainer this
公式,再來我們來看看這個,對吧,市場結構,這根本不需要思考,這
1:41:42
is in an uptrend okay we both get it area of value so in this case uh
處於上升趨勢,好吧,我們都看得出來,價值區,所以在這種情況下,呃
1:41:48
this one here you can see the price coming slightly into this swing low the support fair enough and on top
這裡你可以看到價格稍微進入這個波段低點,也就是支撐,這沒問題,而且在上方
1:41:54
of it you also have the 50 period moving average as what i'll show you right now so you can see over
你還有50期移動均線,就像我現在要展示給你看的,所以你可以看到在
1:42:00
here the market has tested the 50ma once twice three times and now back here for
在這裡市場已經測試了50日均線一次、兩次、三次,現在又回到這裡進行第四次測試,同時這裡也有一個支撐區,所以入場觸發點就這樣。那麼我們假設採用K線形態,我們在這根K線上形成了一個看漲的錘形線
1:42:06
fourth time as well as well having this area of support then entry trigger okay so let's say we
好嗎?市場當天收高,所以我們有了市場結構,我們有了價值區域,我們有了入場觸發點,那出場呢?我們的停損點和目標在哪裡?那麼我們再次假設停損設在低點下方一個ATR的位置,讓我帶你走一遍。那麼會發生的是,你將
1:42:12
go with a candlestick pattern we have a bullish hammer that is formed
在連結處入場,保持在這裡開放,停損設在低點下方一個ATR,假設在這裡某個位置,所以這是S(停損),這是E(入場)入場。好吧,我不打算跟你一起計算確切的
1:42:17
on this candle here okay market close higher for the day so we have our market structure we have our area of value we
停損水平,因為你現在應該已經是個專業人士了,我已經做了很多範例,所以如果你忘記了,請回去複習之前的教學。那麼現在目標呢?如果市場朝我們有利的方向移動,我們該在哪裡
1:42:23
have our entry trigger what about exits where is our stops and target so let's say stop loss again one
出場?如果你還記得,我跟你分享過兩種技巧:波段交易
1:42:28
atr below this low let me just walk you through okay so so what is going to happen is that you will
和趨勢跟隨。所以之前的範例都只專注於波段交易,那麼現在我們想要
1:42:34
enter on the link stay open over here stop loss one atr below the low let's say somewhere here so this is
跟隨趨勢該怎麼做?你可以使用移動平均線,比如50週期移動平均線,對吧?來 trailing(移動)你的停損點。這意味著,只有當市場跌破並收在
1:42:40
s and this is uh e entry okay i'm not going to work out with you where to set the exact
50週期移動平均線下方時,你才出場。所以你可以看到,在這個例子中,市場上漲得更高,而且還沒有收在你的50週期移動平均線下方。嗯,事實上它有,對吧?它在這裡這個點確實收在50日均線下方了,好吧
1:42:47
stop-loss level because you should be a pro by now i did a number of examples so go through the
但記住,你最初的停損點其實是在這個低點下方180(點),也就是在這裡某個位置,所以你的初始停損並沒有被觸發。所以當然,對我來說,我會加碼
1:42:51
earlier training if you forgot about it and now what about target what if the market moves in our favor where do we
到原本的停損點,而不是過早地出場。一旦它朝你的方向移動,
1:42:56
exit our trade so if you recall right i shared with you two techniques swing trading
離場我們的交易?所以如果你回想一下,我跟你分享了兩種技巧,波段交易
1:43:01
and trend following so earlier examples has been solely focused on swing trading so now what if we want
和趨勢跟隨,所以之前的例子都只專注於波段交易,那麼現在我們想要
1:43:07
to write a trend so what you can do is you can use a moving average like the 50 period moving
跟隨趨勢該怎麼做?你可以使用移動均線,比如50期移動
1:43:11
average right to trail your stop loss so this means right only when the market breaks and close
均線,對吧,來移動你的停損點,這意味著,對吧,只有當市場跌破並收盤
1:43:16
below the 50 period moving average then you exit your trade so you can see for this example over here the market uh
低於50期移動均線時,你才出場,所以你可以看到在這個例子中,市場呃
1:43:23
did uh went up higher right and hasn't closed below your 50 period moving
確實,呃,漲得更高了,對吧,而且還沒有收盤低於你的50期移動
1:43:29
average well in fact it did right it did close below the 50ma here at this point okay
均線?嗯,事實上它有,對吧,它在這裡這個位置確實收盤低於50日均線,好吧
1:43:34
but remember your initial stop loss is actually 180 below this load which is somewhere
但別忘了,你最初的停損點其實是在這個低點下方180點,大概在
1:43:38
here so your initial stop-loss is not hit so of course right for me i will add
這裡,所以你的初始停損點並沒有被觸發,所以當然,對我來說,我會在這裡加碼,而不是過早地出場。一旦它朝你的方向移動,
1:43:42
here to the original stop-loss rather than exiting the trade prematurely and once it moves in your
朝著原始停損點的方向移動,而不是過早地出場,而一旦它朝你的
1:43:47
favor right you can start trailing your stop-loss using the 50 period moving average
順勢操作時,你可以開始用 50 期移動平均線來 trailing your stop-loss
1:43:50
until now uh the market is still moving in your favor so of course this is a cherry pick example but it's to
到目前為止,市場仍然對你有利,這當然是刻意挑選的例子,但目的是
1:43:56
illustrate to you how you can actually you know trail your stop-loss to the right massive trends so in this
向你說明如何在真正的大型趨勢中 trailing your stop-loss。所以在這個
1:44:01
case let's say what happened now is that let's say the market suddenly like collapse and you know breaks
情況下,假設現在發生的是,市場突然崩跌並跌破
1:44:06
and close below this 50 period moving average which is this blue line over here
這條 50 期移動平均線,也就是這條藍線
1:44:11
then you'll exit your trade the next day so this is how you trail your stop loss to write trends in the market now moving
那麼你就在第二天出場。這就是在市場中順著趨勢 trailing your stop-loss 的方法。現在
1:44:17
on to another example okay so this one here is a stock trading example and the reason why i'm sharing
我們來看另一個例子。好的,這是一個股票交易的例子,我之所以和你分享
1:44:24
this with you is to sh to let you know right there the concepts the strategies and techniques that
這個,是為了讓你知道,你所學到的概念、策略和技巧
1:44:28
you've learned can be applied right across different markets forex stocks commodities futures et cetera so
可以應用在不同的市場,外匯、股票、商品、期貨等等。所以
1:44:33
this one this stock here is uh fcx the ticker so again same concept market structure
這檔股票是 FCX,代號。同樣的概念,市場結構
1:44:39
is up uptrend price has retraced into this area of failure right previous
是上升趨勢,價格回檔進入這個失敗區,也就是之前的
1:44:45
resistance which became support previous resistance now becomes support support and back here once again
阻力變成支撐的地方,之前的阻力現在變成支撐,支撐又回到這裡。再一次
1:44:50
let's say our entry trigger we go with a moving average break so let's pull out the five period moving average
假設我們的進場觸發點是移動平均線突破,所以我們拉出 5 期移動平均線
1:44:56
and you can see that this candle over here has break and close above the five
你可以看到這裡的這根 K 線突破並收在 5
1:45:01
period moving average so you enter on the next day open so next the open market here okay
期移動平均線之上,所以你在第二天開盤進場。那麼接下來,市場開盤這裡,好的
1:45:05
good so this candle you enter on the next day open over here stop loss
好的,這根 K 線你在第二天開盤這裡進場,停損點
1:45:10
one atr below this low which is somewhere about here and let's say this time around you want
設在低點下方一個 ATR,大約在這裡。假設這次你想要
1:45:15
to write a trend and you decide to write a longer term trend so what can you do you can trail your
順著一個長期趨勢,所以你可以怎麼做?你可以用 100 期移動平均線來 trailing your
1:45:20
stop-loss using a 100-period moving average so let's see what happens so let's say the market moves in your favor
stop-loss。我們來看看會發生什麼事。假設市場對你有利
1:45:26
in this case of course because i cherry-picked this chart and and you overlay with the 100 period
在這個案例中當然,因為我是刻意挑選這張圖表,並且你疊加上 100 期
1:45:32
moving average so you can see over here right the price has is still above the 100 period moving
移動平均線,所以你可以看到在這裡,價格仍然高於100期移動平均線
1:45:38
average so only right when the price breaks let's say it breaks and close below
所以只有當價格跌破,假設它跌破並收盤低於
1:45:44
this 100 period moving average only then will you exit this trade if not you will hold this long position right
這個100期移動平均線時,你才會出場,否則你會繼續持有這個多頭部位
1:45:50
till the trend right hits your trailing stop loss so of course you can imagine right as a trend for lower in
直到趨勢觸及你的移動止損點,當然你可以想像,作為一個趨勢追蹤者,在
1:45:56
this case it's a long term trend following a stop loss right you will be in this rate for a much longer
這種情況下,這是一個長期的趨勢追蹤策略,你會在這個交易中停留
1:46:02
period compared to someone who is trying to capture a short-term trend or someone who is trying to capture a swing
比試圖捕捉短期趨勢或波段的交易者更長的時間
1:46:08
so again something that you have to be prepared for and finally all right let me share with
所以這又是你必須做好準備的事情,最後,讓我分享給
1:46:12
you a few examples right of trade that i do not want to take okay now let's have a look at this chart
你一些我不想進行的交易例子,好的,現在讓我們看看這張圖表
1:46:20
and find out why this is a trade that or rather this is a market that i'm not interested in
並找出為什麼這是一個交易,或者更準確地說,為什麼這是一個我目前不感興趣的市場
1:46:25
trading right now so again using the same formula
進行交易,同樣使用相同的公式
1:46:29
market structure it's up area of value it's somewhere about here okay around the 42 price point
市場結構是向上的,價值區大概在這裡,大約在42的價位
1:46:36
is the price at this area of value not quite so let's give it one x right no entry trigger do we have a
價格在這個價值區嗎?並沒有,所以我們給它一個X,沒有進場觸發訊號,我們在這個點有
1:46:43
valid entry trigger at this point we have kind of like a like you know a bearish looking
一個有效的進場觸發訊號嗎?我們有一個看起來像是
1:46:48
candle right i am interested to buy i don't want a bearish reversal candlestick pattern so
看跌的K線,但我有興趣買進,我不想要看到看跌的反轉K線形態
1:46:52
entry trigger is no as well so if you don't have an area of value that you're trading from if you don't have any valid
所以進場觸發訊號也是沒有,如果你沒有要交易的價值區,如果你沒有任何有效的
1:46:58
entry trigger to enter a trade you have no business trading so this is a trade it's a no go
進場觸發訊號來進行交易,你就沒有交易的必要,所以這是一個交易,是不行的
1:47:02
and let's move on to something else so usually it's gonna be very quick right once you realize that the price
我們繼續看下一個,通常會非常快,一旦你意識到價格
1:47:08
is not an area of value you can skip it all together you don't even need to bother whether there's a valid entry
不在價值區,你可以直接跳過它,你甚至不需要煩惱是否有有效的進場
1:47:12
trigger or not because if it's not an area of value why do you want to bother you know taking such sub-optimal trade
觸發訊號,因為如果它不是價值區,你為什麼要煩惱去進行這種次優的交易呢?
1:47:18
so quickly you can move on into something else so if you look at this chart another
所以你可以很快地繼續看下一個,如果你看這張圖表,另一個
1:47:22
example pound against the japanese yen you can see this one here market structure is up
以英鎊兌日圓為例,你可以看到這裡的市場結構是上升的
1:47:28
area of value is here at this point the price is kind of like in the middle of nowhere it's not near any
價值區間在這一點,目前價格處於像中間地帶的位置,它不在任何
1:47:33
area of value and i have no business or i have no interest wanting to trade this because again
價值區間附近,所以我沒有理由或意圖去交易這個,因為再次強調
1:47:38
the price is not at an area of value why do i want to force a trade yes it's in an uptrend but from the
價格不在價值區間,為什麼我要強迫交易?是的,它是處於上升趨勢,但從
1:47:44
looks of things right it's currently you know seems to be wanting to make a pullback
目前情況來看,它現在似乎
1:47:47
right and to reverse lower so if i were to buy right now i'm putting myself in such you know
想要進行回調,並且反轉向下,所以如果我現在買進,我會把自己置於一個
1:47:52
unfavorable you know situation does it make sense hey hey what's up my friend so at this
非常不利的情況,這樣說有道理嗎?嘿,嘿,你好,我的朋友,所以在這個
1:48:00
point right you have learned a lot about technical analysis we talk about things like market
時點,你已經學了很多關於技術分析的知識,我們談論了像市場
1:48:04
structure support resistance entry trigger stops target swing trading trend
結構、支撐、阻力、入場觸發點、停損、目標、波段交易、趨勢
1:48:08
following etc and to be honest right all this will give you a strong foundation but we are just
跟隨等等,老實說,這些會給你一個堅實的基礎,但我們只是
1:48:13
scratching the surface there's a lot more that you can dive deeper right if you want to be
涉及了皮毛,如果你想要
1:48:17
proficient to master technical analysis and if that's what you want right then i recommend right you get a copy of this
精通並掌握技術分析,還有更多內容可以深入探討,如果那是你想要的,那麼我建議你買一本
1:48:23
book over here it's called price action trading secrets i'll put the link somewhere below this
這本書,它叫做「價格行為交易秘密」,我會在這個
1:48:28
video or you can go directly to this link over here price action trading secrets.com
影片下方某處放上連結,或者你可以直接去這個連結
1:48:32
this is a 140 page physical color trading book where i'll share with you right
這是一本140頁的實體彩色交易書,我會在其中與你分享
1:48:37
price action trading strategies and techniques right that you can use to trade the financial market so if
價格行為交易策略和技巧,你可以用來交易金融市場,所以如果
1:48:42
you've enjoyed this training so far this book here will take you towards the next level we
你到目前為止很喜歡這個教學,這本書會帶你進入下一個層次,我們
1:48:46
talk about things like support and resistance again but at a much deeper level how to tell
會再次討論像支撐和阻力這樣的東西,但會在更深的層次,如何判斷
1:48:50
when support resistance will break how to draw support resistance how to read candlestick patterns like a
支撐和阻力何時會突破,如何畫出支撐和阻力,如何像專業人士一樣解讀K線形態,像是
1:48:55
pro different type of candlestick patterns that are worth learning i'll share with you reversal
值得學習的不同類型K線形態,我會與你分享反轉
1:48:59
trading strategies breakout trading strategies how to manage your risk so you never blow up another trading
突破交易策略 如何管理風險 才不會再爆掉另一個交易
1:49:04
account and much much more so you can see that there's a lot back into this 140 page physical trading book
帳戶 還有更多更多內容 讓您知道這本140頁的實體交易書內容有多豐富
1:49:11
and also if you get a copy of this book today i'm going to throw in a few bonuses right for you bonus number
另外 如果您今天購買一本書 我要額外送您幾個贈品 對 第一個贈品
1:49:17
one is a digital copy of price action trading secrets so this book is a physical book
是《Price Action Trading Secrets》的電子版 這本書是實體書
1:49:22
it will take some time to reach you about three to four weeks but if you want to get your hands on it
需要一點時間送達 大約三到四周 但如果您想立刻拿到
1:49:26
immediately the first bonus i will give you is a pdf copy of price action trading secrets so the moment you
我給您的第一個贈品 就是《Price Action Trading Secrets》的PDF檔 您在結帳的
1:49:31
checkout you will get the instant pdf version that you can start reading immediately
當下就會立刻拿到PDF版本 您可以馬上開始閱讀
1:49:35
without waiting for a few weeks for your book to arrive bonus number two is this position sizing calculator so
不用等幾週書才到貨 第二個贈品是這個部位大小計算機 讓您
1:49:41
you never blow up another trading account i'll share with you how to use this
不會再爆掉另一個交易帳戶 我會教您如何使用這個
1:49:44
calculator so you know how many shares of stock to buy how many units of currencies to trade
計算機 讓您知道要買進多少股股票 要交易多少單位的貨幣
1:49:49
so you won't you know blow up your account just because of one trade going wrong and finally i'll share with
這樣您就不會因為一筆交易出錯就爆掉帳戶 最後我會分享給
1:49:55
you this uh webinar it's called part-time trading secrets how you can actually be a
您這個線上研討會 稱為兼職交易的秘密 如何在不辭去正職的
1:49:59
consistently profitable trader without quitting your full-time job all this and more all these bonuses will be sent to
情況下 成為一位持續獲利的交易員 這些以及更多內容 這些贈品都會在您
1:50:05
you instantly right when you get a copy of price action trading secrets
購買《Price Action Trading Secrets》時 立刻寄送給您
1:50:09
and here's the thing right i know that there's a lot of trading books out there and so here's my
事情是這樣的 我知道市面上有很多交易書 所以我提供您
1:50:14
100 risk-free guarantee to you so when you purchase price action trading secrets today and within 60 days or if
100%無風險保證 當您今天購買《Price Action Trading Secrets》 在60天內 如果
1:50:19
you find it that it's not to your liking you don't get any value out of it just let us know just email
您發現不喜歡它 覺得沒有收穫 只要通知我們 寄信到
1:50:24
support trading with renault.com and we'll gladly refund you in full no questions
support@tradingwithrenault.com 我們會很樂意全額退費 不會問任何問題
1:50:29
and you can still keep the book and the bonuses how's that for being fair so if that interests you just go down to
而且您還可以保留書籍和贈品 這樣夠公平吧 如果您有興趣 只要前往
1:50:34
the website priceactiontradingsecrets.com over here if you just
網站 priceactiontradingsecrets.com 這裡 只要您...
1:50:38
click any of this blue button here like this blue button here or this any of the blue button here or
點擊這裡的任何一個藍色按鈕,像是這個藍色按鈕,或是這裡的任何一個藍色按鈕,或是
1:50:44
here you will be brought up to the bot you will be brought to the bottom of the
這裡,您將會被帶到機器人那裡,您將會被帶到頁面的底部,只需填寫您的資料,我們就會
1:50:47
page just you know fill in your details and will ship out the book immediately right
立即寄出這本書,沒錯
1:50:52
to you as soon as possible so with that's it i wish you good luck good trading i hope you've enjoyed this
儘快寄到您手上,就這樣了,祝您好運,交易順利,希望您喜歡這次的
1:50:56
training i will talk to you soon
教學,我們很快會再聊。

The Ultimate Technical Analysis Trading Course (For Beginners)

📝 影片摘要

本單元「終極初學者技術分析交易課程」旨在為交易新手提供一個清晰、簡潔的交易框架,以克服情緒障礙並避免常見虧損。影片以講者的自身經歷為引,指出初學者常犯的「指標過多」與「缺乏框架」兩大錯誤。核心教學內容為「M.A.E.E.」交易框架:1. 市場結構 (Market Structure):判斷趨勢方向。2. 價值區 (Area of Value):找出理想的進場位置。3. 入場觸發點 (Entry Trigger):確認精準的交易時機。4. 出場規劃 (Exit Plan):設定停損與停利。課程透過大量圖表範例,詳細解釋如何運用K線圖、移動平均線、支撐阻力、型態學等工具,建立一套完整的交易邏輯。

📌 重點整理

  • 95%的交易者虧損主因是使用過多指標造成分析癱瘓,以及缺乏交易框架。
  • 交易必須建立在清晰的框架之上,如同蓋房子需要藍圖,才能避免混亂。
  • M.A.E.E. 框架:市場結構 (Market Structure) 決定交易方向。
  • M.A.E.E. 框架:價值區 (Area of Value) 找出低風險的進場點。
  • M.A.E.E. 框架:入場觸發點 (Entry Trigger) 告訴你何時執行交易。
  • M.A.E.E. 框架:出場規劃 (Exit Plan) 包含停損(保護資本)與停利(實現獲利)。
  • 交易應順應趨勢,利用市場結構(更高高點/低點、更低高點/低點)來判斷多空方向。
  • 利用移動平均線(如200期)輔助判斷長期趨勢,價格在均線之上為多頭,之下為空頭。
  • 支撐與阻力是關鍵的價值區,跌破的支撐可能轉為阻力,反之亦然。
  • 有效的入場觸發點包括K線反轉型態(如錘子、吞噬)與移動平均線突破。
  • 風險管理:停損應設在「交易設定被證明無效」的位置,並可使用ATR(平均真實波動率)來客觀設定。
  • 出場策略可分為兩種: Swing Trading(波段交易,獲利了結)與 Trend Following(趨勢追蹤,使用移動平均線 trailing stop)。
  • 交易的核心是「機率」,沒有必勝的策略,必須接受虧損並做好風險控管。
📖 專有名詞百科 |點擊詞彙查看維基百科解釋
波動性
volatility
框架
framework
結構
structure
上升趨勢
uptrend
下降趨勢
downtrend
回檔
pullback
突破
breakout
觸發點
trigger
動能
momentum
風險
risk

🔍 自訂查詢

📚 共 10 個重點單字
volatility /ˌvɒləˈtɪləti/ noun
the quality of being likely to change suddenly
波動性;不穩定性
📝 例句
"The market is experiencing high volatility."
市場正經歷高度波動。
✨ 延伸例句
"Oil prices are notoriously volatile."
石油價格以波動劇烈而聞名。
framework /ˈfreɪmwɜːrk/ noun
a basic structure underlying a system, concept, or text
框架;準則
📝 例句
"you don't have a framework to work with."
你沒有一套可以遵循的框架。
✨ 延伸例句
"We need a solid framework for this project."
我們需要為這個專案建立一個穩固的框架。
structure /ˈstrʌktʃər/ noun
the arrangement of and relations between the parts or elements of something
結構;構造
📝 例句
"so let's talk about market structure."
所以我們來談談市場結構。
✨ 延伸例句
"The building has a steel structure."
這棟建築是鋼結構的。
uptrend /ˈʌptrend/ noun
a general upward movement
上升趨勢
📝 例句
"this is a uptrend."
這是上升趨勢。
✨ 延伸例句
"The stock is in a strong uptrend."
這支股票處於強勁的上升趨勢中。
downtrend /ˈdaʊntrend/ noun
a general downward movement
下降趨勢
📝 例句
"this market is in a downtrend."
這個市場處於下降趨勢中。
✨ 延伸例句
"We can see a clear downtrend on the chart."
我們可以在圖表上看到明顯的下降趨勢。
pullback /ˈpʊlbæk/ noun
a temporary reversal in the price of a stock or commodity
回檔;拉回
📝 例句
"it makes a pullback."
它做了一個回檔。
✨ 延伸例句
"Traders buy the stock during the pullback."
交易者在回檔時買入股票。
breakout /ˈbreɪkaʊt/ noun
a sudden upward movement in price
突破
📝 例句
"breaks out higher."
向上突破。
✨ 延伸例句
"The breakout above resistance was significant."
突破阻力位的走勢非常重要。
trigger /ˈtrɪɡər/ noun
something that precipitates a reaction or event
觸發點;誘因
📝 例句
"entry trigger this answers the question when exactly do you buy."
入場觸發點,這回答了你究竟何時買進的問題。
✨ 延伸例句
"A news report can be a trigger for market volatility."
新聞報導可能引發市場波動。
momentum /məˈmentəm/ noun
the impetus gained by a moving object
動能;勢頭
📝 例句
"the trend usually tends to be a healthy trend."
趨勢通常會是健康的趨勢。
✨ 延伸例句
"The stock has strong upward momentum."
這支股票有強勁的上升動能。
risk /rɪsk/ noun
the possibility of loss or injury
風險
📝 例句
"low risk and high reward trading opportunities."
低風險高回報的交易機會。
✨ 延伸例句
"High risk investments can lead to high rewards."
高風險投資可能帶來高回報。
🎯 共 10 題測驗

1 According to the video, what is the primary reason 95% of traders lose money using technical analysis? 根據影片,95%的交易者使用技術分析虧損的主要原因是什麼? According to the video, what is the primary reason 95% of traders lose money using technical analysis?

根據影片,95%的交易者使用技術分析虧損的主要原因是什麼?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 B

The speaker states that adding too many indicators leads to analysis paralysis and conflicting information.

講者指出,添加太多指標會導致分析癱瘓和資訊衝突。

2 What are the four components of the trading framework proposed by the speaker? 講者提出的交易框架包含哪四個部分? What are the four components of the trading framework proposed by the speaker?

講者提出的交易框架包含哪四個部分?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 C

The core framework is Market Structure, Area of Value, Entry Trigger, and Exits.

核心框架是市場結構、價值區、入場觸發點和出場。

3 How does the speaker define an 'Uptrend' using price action? 講者如何使用價格走勢定義「上升趨勢」? How does the speaker define an 'Uptrend' using price action?

講者如何使用價格走勢定義「上升趨勢」?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 C

An uptrend consists of a series of higher highs and higher lows.

上升趨勢由一系列的更高高點和更高低點組成。

4 What is the 'Area of Value' in technical analysis? 技術分析中的「價值區」是什麼? What is the 'Area of Value' in technical analysis?

技術分析中的「價值區」是什麼?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 C

Area of value helps identify where buying or selling pressure could step in.

價值區幫助識別買方或賣方壓力可能介入的區域。

5 According to the rule of Support and Resistance, what happens when support is broken? 根據支撐與阻力的規則,當支撐被跌破時會發生什麼? According to the rule of Support and Resistance, what happens when support is broken?

根據支撐與阻力的規則,當支撐被跌破時會發生什麼?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 B

When support is broken, it could become resistance.

當支撐被跌破時,它可能變成阻力。

6 What is the primary purpose of a 'Stop Loss'? 「停損」的主要目的是什麼? What is the primary purpose of a 'Stop Loss'?

「停損」的主要目的是什麼?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 B

Stop loss is used to cut losses if the market moves against you.

停損是用來在市場走勢不利時止損。

7 Which candlestick pattern is described as a sign of strength where buyers overcome sellers? 哪種K線型態被描述為買方戰勝賣方的強勢訊號? Which candlestick pattern is described as a sign of strength where buyers overcome sellers?

哪種K線型態被描述為買方戰勝賣方的強勢訊號?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 C

The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern where buyers push price up from the lows.

錘子是看漲反轉型態,買方將價格從低點推高。

8 How does the speaker suggest drawing Support/Resistance in a trending market? 講者建議在趨勢市場中如何繪製支撐/阻力? How does the speaker suggest drawing Support/Resistance in a trending market?

講者建議在趨勢市場中如何繪製支撐/阻力?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 B

In a trending market, you only want to draw the two most recent swing points.

在趨勢市場中,你只需要畫出最近的兩個波段點。

9 What is the difference between Swing Trading and Trend Following regarding exits? 波段交易和趨勢追蹤在出場方面有什麼不同? What is the difference between Swing Trading and Trend Following regarding exits?

波段交易和趨勢追蹤在出場方面有什麼不同?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 A

Swing trading captures one move, while trend following rides the trend using a trailing stop.

波段交易捕捉一波走勢,而趨勢追蹤則使用移動停損來順應趨勢。

10 What is the purpose of using ATR (Average True Range) in setting stop losses? 使用ATR(平均真實波動率)設定停損的目的是什麼? What is the purpose of using ATR (Average True Range) in setting stop losses?

使用ATR(平均真實波動率)設定停損的目的是什麼?

✅ 正確! ❌ 錯誤,正確答案是 B

ATR measures volatility, allowing you to set stops based on current market noise.

ATR衡量波動性,讓你能夠根據當前的市場雜訊來設置停損。

測驗完成!得分: / 10